<p>Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.</p>

<p>The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.</p>

<p>One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.</p>

<p>"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.</p>

<p>"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]</p>

<p>The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.</p>

<p>PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.</p>

<p>"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]</p>

<p>Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.</p>

<p>Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.</p>

<p>The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.</p>

<p>"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.</p>

<p>"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]</p>

<p>Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.</p>

<p>Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]</p>


Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

<p>Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.</p>

<p>The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]</p>

<p>“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.</p>

<p>The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]</p>

<p>“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.</p>

<p>“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]</p>

<p>Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.</p>

<p>Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.</p>

<p>The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.</p>

<p>LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.</p>

<p>Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]</p>


Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

<p>Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?</p>

<p>Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.</p>

<p>NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.</p>

<p>“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.</p>

<p>"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.</p>

<p>Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.</p>

<p>“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”</p>

<p>Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.</p>

<p>“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”</p>

<p>She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.</p>

<p>“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”</p>


Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

<p>A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325]<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.</p>

<p>“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.”<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity.<br />
&nbsp;&nbsp;<br />
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp;<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516]<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Completion is slated for early 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]</p>


Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

<p>Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.</p>

<p>Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.</p>

<p>The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.</p>

<p>Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" /></p>

<p>The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.</p>

<p>The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.</p>

<p>According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."</p>

<p>"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.</p>

<p>"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.</p>

<p>"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."</p>

<p>The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.</p>

<p>COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.</p>

<p>The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.</p>

<p><img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" /></p>

<p>Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.</p>

<p>Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.</p>

<p>Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.</p>

<p>"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.</p>

<p>"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a></em></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

Property market

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<p>SPONSORED POST</p>
<p>As an investor, you’ll want to minimise the amount of tax you pay on your rental property and ensure the process of completing tax returns run as smoothly as possible. Here are some tips to help.</p>
<p>1. Keep paperwork in order from the start. Record all up-front expenditure when buying your investment as initial expenses form part of the property’s cost base and can help cut capital gains tax when you sell. Carefully file all investment-related receipts throughout each year to minimise headaches at tax time.</p>
<p>2. Pre-pay interest and other expenses if it makes sense for you.</p>
<p>3. When considering whether to repair or replace an appliance or fixture, remember repairs can be claimed in the tax year in which they were incurred while replacements often need to be depreciated over the item’s lifespan. This could make a difference to your investment’s costs and your annual tax bill.</p>
<p>4. Consider obtaining a depreciation schedule. These do cost but they may allow you to claim deductions for capital works and assets such as appliances that save thousands in tax over the time you own the investment. </p>
<p>5. Handle tax in the same way as the names on the property title: if the property is held equally in joint names, for example, you both need to declare half the income and claim half expenses in your tax returns.</p>
<p>6. Beware of redrawing on your investment property mortgage for personal use. This changes the amount of interest you can claim as a tax deduction and may affect whether your property is positively or negatively geared.</p>
<p>7. Try to time the sale of your investment property so it settles in a year when your taxable income will be lower. This might mean waiting until you retire, take a break from work or start a business, for example.</p>
<p>8. If you plan to dispose of a loss-making investment, try to sell in the same year as a profit-making investment property so you can use the loss to reduce your net capital gain, and therefore your tax bill. Remember to offset capital losses from previous years against current-year gains.</p>
<p>9. Seek advice before buying property through a self-managed superannuation fund. There can be tax advantages but there are fewer benefits to negative gearing through super. There are also restrictions on what you can do with your rental property that don’t apply to investments you directly own – such as renovating and renting to relatives or friends.</p>
<p>10. Seek professional tax advice to ensure you’re claiming all you’re entitled to. </p>
<p><span>To download a free ebook on new financial year taxation tips for property investors,</span><a href="http://propertyobserver.com.au/forward-planning/tools/ebooks-and-webinars/55208-new-financial-year-tax-planning-tips-for-property-investors" target="_blank"> click here</a><span>.</span></p>
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

Minimise the amount of tax paid on rental property investment

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<p class="ItalicBodyCopy">Evidence that the Perth market has bottomed, after four tough years, is growing.</p>
<p class="ItalicBodyCopy">A market recovery is under way and one of the locations leading the revival is the City of Wanneroo in the north of the metro area.</p>
<p class="ItalicBodyCopy">Strong population growth is propelling the Wanneroo LGA away from its past as a remote, bushy area towards becoming a busy seaside city destined to house 363,000 residents. Over the past decade, 177,000 new residents have moved there, making it the fastest-growing LGA in Western Australia.</p>
<p class="ItalicBodyCopy">Its popularity with young families is evident too. Sales numbers have been rising and this earned Wanneroo a special mention in Hotspotting’s 2017 Winter Edition of the Price Predictor Index. At a time when few Perth suburbs have rising sales activity, several locations in the City of Wanneroo are showing signs of returning to growth.</p>
<p class="ItalicBodyCopy">Growing industrial areas are providing employment opportunities and with houses in most suburbs priced in the $300,000s and $400,000s, the City of Wanneroo is worthy of attention by investors.</p>
<p class="ItalicBodyCopy">Wanneroo is a rapidly-expanding LGA on the northern fringe of the Perth metropolitan area, located about 12km from the Perth CBD at its nearest point and 62km at its furthest point.</p>
<p class="ItalicBodyCopy">Perth’s next major Strategic Metropolitan Centre at Yanchep is currently being developed. Until the early 2000s, much of this area was unpopulated bushland.</p>
<p class="ItalicBodyCopy">The LGA’s main commercial and residential town centres are located at Wanneroo and Clarkson.</p>
<p class="ItalicBodyCopy">Other urban centres are planned at Alkimos, Yanchep and Two Rocks, with the largest retail centre being Wanneroo Cenral.</p>
<p class="ItalicBodyCopy">The Wanneroo region has natural attractions, mainly the beaches, but it is also home to the Yanchep and Neerabup National Park, Yellagonga Regional Park. and Lake Joondalup.</p>
<p class="ItalicBodyCopy">Barbagallo Raceway is a motorsport circuit located in Pinjar. It is renowned for the annual Supercar Championships which attract around 50,000 visitors over three days.</p>
<p class="ItalicBodyCopy">The City of Wanneroo has come to Hotspotting’s attention because of rising sales activity in several suburbs at a time when Perth’s market generally has been weak.</p>
<p class="ItalicBodyCopy">Wanneroo is one of four Perth precincts that are beginning to demonstrate a turnaround in the Perth housing market. Of the four, Wanneroo is the standout location, providing growth markets such as Alkimos, Carramar, Clarkson and Yanchep.</p>
<p class="ItalicBodyCopy">Alkimos is a newly-emerging suburb, having had a population of only 700 at the 2011 Census. The population is now 6,000. As with Yanchep, Butler and Two Rocks, new land estates are becoming available at Alkimos.</p>
<p class="ItalicBodyCopy">Based on 105 sales in the past year, the median house price at Alkimos is $400,000, with a median yield of 4.7%. Clarkson is the busiest suburb in the Wanneroo LGA with 227 annual sales. It has a median house price of $406,000 and a median rental yield of 4.5%.</p>
<p class="ItalicBodyCopy">Generally, young families dominate the region, searching for affordability amid the new development. Houses priced under $400,000 can be found in Banksia Grove, Girrawheen, Merriwa and Yanchep.</p>
<p class="ItalicBodyCopy">The State Government’s LandCorp and the Satterley Property Group are creating a new beach suburb between Yanchep and Alkimos. The 240ha community, to be known as Allara, has the potential to accommodate 3,400 home sites and a population of 7,500 people in the next 10 years.</p>
<p class="ItalicBodyCopy">Building projections obtained from the City of Wanneroo show that between 2011 and 2036, the suburb of Butler will have 2,800 dwellings added; Clarkson 2,400; Alkimos 11,000, Jindalee 3,200 and Yanchep 8,800.</p>
<p class="ItalicBodyCopy">Investors need to be mindful that vacancy rates are an issue, as is the case right across Perth. I expect this to improve as the WA economy and the Perth property market continue their fightback.</p>
<p class="ItalicBodyCopy"><span>Terry Ryder is the founder of </span><a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a><span>. You can </span><a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'">email him</a><span> or follow him on </span><a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting">Twitter.</a></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

City of Wanneroo, Perth, leading state's market recovery 

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<p>CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless gives a national property market update.</p>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

National market update for November: CoreLogic

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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This year we will learn, yet again, the simple truth that Australia is not a single property market.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">You could be forgiven for thinking that the nation has just one united market, because most of the commentary in mainstream media discusses “the Australian property market” and what will happen to “Australian property prices”.</span></p>
<p class="p1">But success in 2018 will be achieved by those who understand that we do not have a single property market, but myriad different ones all doing their own thing, dictated by local conditions rather than national ones.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Have a look at the latest figures from the ABS on annual growth in dwelling prices in the eight state and territory capital cities in the past 12 months.</span></p>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Hobart rising and now the national leader with annual growth of 14 percent.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Canberra rising but still moderate, with growth at 7 percent.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Melbourne still strong, with annual growth at 13 percent.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Sydney fading, with the annual growth rate now in single digits.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Brisbane and Adelaide going nowhere fast, with growth around 3-4 percent.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Perth (down 2 percent) and Darwin (down 6 percent) still going backwards.</span></li>
</ul>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Across regional Australia there were multiple market scenarios, with some growing strongly (like Newcastle, Geelong and the Sunshine Coast), others showing moderate growth, many stagnating with little in the way of price growth, some falling moderately and some (notably resources-related markets) down a lot.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">You could argue we have a five-speed property market in Australia.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">But you’re still going to see twits standing up on ABC Television making statements like “property price growth will be zero this year” and “the national property boom is over”.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">You will also read various members of the chattering economist class discussing Australia as a single market and making meaningless forecasts about the future of Australian house prices.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">These sad bastards just don’t know any better. They’re not real estate specialists and they only occasionally turn their attention to residential property, by calling up a couple of graphs on their computer screens to examine what’s happening in what they see as a single homogenous one-size-fits-all real estate industry.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Forecasting that “Australian property prices” will rise 3 percent in 2018 is a pointless exercise, quite useless for the average consumer. The Reserve Bank governor said as much in a speech late last year.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The coming year will have similar variations to the last, with Canberra behaving very differently to Sydney, and Melbourne moving in an opposite direction to Perth.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Even within a single city, there will be different scenarios paying out in various parts of the metropolitan area.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In Brisbane, there will be good growth in some of the more affordable areas, not much action in the middle market and price decline in the inner-city apartment markets.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Perth generally is moving into a solid recovery phase, but it won’t be evenly spread across the metropolitan area. Vacancies remain very high in the inner-city apartment suburbs and out in suburbia some precincts are moving forward more strongly than others.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">There are a couple of middle-market areas doing well, the Melville and Stirling local governments areas, while more affordable precincts in the north are leading the fight-back, notably the Joondalup and Wanneroo LGAs.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Such is the reality of our myriad real estate markets. Feel free to ignore anyone who generalises.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s3">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s4"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s3"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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My 2018 message - Australia is not a single property market

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
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<div>There was a significant rebound in business confidence and conditions in May, albeit they still, of course, remain at historically weak levels:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Business confidence jumped 20 points higher, but is still in negative territory, while business conditions improved by 10 points over the month. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>Via the NAB Survey, <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-A8DtJIwNCOM/Xt8jOdG5hVI/AAAAAAAA2OM/Ho9bYL4tHukFvsEFIsFTPJZ-uwa0HChfgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Nab1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>:</em></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-A8DtJIwNCOM/Xt8jOdG5hVI/AAAAAAAA2OM/Ho9bYL4tHukFvsEFIsFTPJZ-uwa0HChfgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Nab1.jpg" width="640" height="216" data-original-height="543" data-original-width="1600"></div>
<br><div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: NAB Survey</em></span></div>
<br><div>Well, it's a decent start, as restrictions are eased.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There have been some spectacular results for Australia in respect of COVID-19 today, with only two new confirmed cases, with two cases remaining in ICU:</div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-e6ppm6ZYJwg/Xt8k9UNyS3I/AAAAAAAA2Oc/LoA_SuoFzrcH8CUFePxERXc0g-K9GuVBACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1426"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Both of the new confirmed cases were returned overseas travellers, held in New South Wales quarantine:</div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1CquvNlMRtE/Xt8lM9RQcpI/AAAAAAAA2Og/392PQbZziKAnh-d5STbyM0vBC3als33LgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/cv2.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1412"></div>
<br>New Zealand is also now officially COVID-19 free.</div>
<div>
<br><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
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Business conditions begin to claw back: Pete Wargent

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<p>Following from my earlier post I want to look further at the important role of creative place making as a vigorous part of the project development and marketing mix. To do so let’s examine three core areas that are commonly used to help define ‘place making’ and see how they combine to help structure the sort of places (communities and neighbourhoods) where people want to live.</p>
<p>After all, that’s the fundamental aim of every project we take to the market and help to develop.</p>
<p><strong>Social Offering</strong></p>
<p>The social offering of a development, either a medium or high density project or a new housing estate is tied to the identity of the area and a good social offering, as part of place making, does doubtless establish a valuable and tangible competitive advantage.</p>
<p>When looking for a positive social offering we will rely upon two main areas, infrastructure (nothing surprising there) and how people then relate to and use an area. It’s that vibe you feel in an area, the feeling of a genuine community that’s come about because of a grassroots organic process.</p>
<p>Infrastructure is so important because this impacts the things people are able to do in an area, and how they live and use the area as part of their daily activity and lives. Visitors will have a different affinity, but still infrastructure will determine the quality of everyone’s engagement with an area, and in-turn the individual developments.</p>
<p>However when referring to infrastructure we need to look beyond the hard areas like key services (schools, shops and transport for example) and consider the wide social offering of an area including the arts.</p>
<p>Social infrastructure will vary between an inner-city brownfield location and a new greenfield location, but both will offer opportunity for community engagement and the arts can be used to seed that for new projects and residents. Mixed-use developments do have an advantage in that they will often be of a scale that includes new social, at times culturally and arts focused projects.</p>
<p><strong>Openness</strong></p>
<p>This is a significant area, it’s a big subject, that results in an area making people feel welcome and comfortable, a simple idea I agree, but as the density of our cities increases, this is a key to creating well-rounded communities.</p>
<p>Openness as part of place making is very much tied up in the demographics of an area, and as demographics shift there can be challenges involved. It’s not so much an area that a developer can directly create or deliver, but comes about more as a result of planning, although the product mix of a building does play a role.</p>
<p>When we think about demographics, a mixed profile is most often seen as the best outcome, a mix of ages and family types is good so that the neighbourhood is not narrowly fixed on one demographic. We want the area to say ‘please come and live here or visit, you’re welcome.’</p>
<p>Putting this another way, we want people to feel comfortable and welcome in an area, in a new project and this is a point that can be kept in mind in the planning and design of projects. Also as the demographics of a suburb change we already see openness linked to the areas such as ageing in place and affordability, both have a part to play, and they’re big topics in themselves.</p>
<p><strong>Appearances</strong></p>
<p>The appearance of a project is the most positive and visible and important expression of ‘place making’ because it’s here we address the aesthetics of the built environment, the public and accessible parts of a project. It’s also an area where developers can take the lead.</p>
<p>With a small project this could be limited to the main residents foyer, connecting the building to the street, while for larger projects there’s often the ability to create a big impact via open plaza areas, parks, shops, cafes and community facilities, the bigger the project the bigger the potential impact.</p>
<p>This same area would also include the common areas of any development, and while these areas are not usually open to full public access, common areas do set the tone and character of a project and are an essential part of a building’s appeal. Common areas are even more important to buyers, as apartments are tending to get smaller.</p>
<p>These areas are often the glamour stars of marketing material and I think with any size project, buyers always pay a lot of attention to the quality and presentation of common areas, creating a sense of arrival and status.</p>
<p>Looking for a suitable way to sum up the importance of appearance, as a key to creative place making is not easy. It’s an important area, essential really and usually involves a major investment, not only by a project developer, but also frequently by the local councils and government. For the City of Sydney this is a big focus.</p>
<p>Aesthetics, design and appearance can create a valuable reputation for a building and an entire area, and no matter the scale I think if the residents and visitors feel proud of an area then that’s a tick for all involved.</p>
<p>Creative place making then involves a wide range of interesting topics from the arts to demographics, and in the constant rush of high demand and rising prices this topic still deserves our attention. The feeling of place after all will survive varied market conditions and mark the quality and appeal of where we spend our daily lives.</p>
<p><em>Read the first part of Peter's post here.</em></p>
<p><em><em>Peter Chittenden is managing director for residential of Colliers International. He can be contacted <a href="https://www.projectagenda.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></em></p>
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Creative place making Part Two: Peter Chittenden

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<div>The UK Land Registry released its latest House Price Index for the month of August 2015, which showed prices rising in the East (+8.4% year-on-year), South East (+7.6%), and yet again, in London (+6.6%).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The largest gain for the month was seen in the capital city of London (+1.7%), while Cambridgeshire recorded yet another robust +7.8% year-on-year gain.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other hand prices declined in the month in a number of the regions located away from The Smoke, including in t'North West, Yorkshire &amp; t'Humber, and in the East Midlands. </div>
<div>
<br>Prices have also remained relatively flat over the past year in Wales and the North East like.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Not shorting shortages</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There have been some alarming statistics reported over recent years projecting dramatic housing shortages around London and the South East, and rarely is progess made on how the supply shortages will be tackled.</div>
<div>If there is one thing there <em>has</em> been a glut of over the past 20 years years it has been hapless experts trying in vain to pick turning points in the London housing market.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile average house London prices have increased from<span> <span>£</span>91,000 to nearly <span>£</span>500,000 (A$1,090,000), comfortably greater than a fivefold increase (today's average price is 5.4 times higher than in 1995, to be precise).</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/30/HPI.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/09/30/HPI.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Different strokes for different folks, of course, but the single best investment decision I've made over the years has simply been to never sell a property, regardless of what the 'experts' in the media say.<br><br>Buy prime location capital city properties, never sell them. Sure you'll get cyclical downturns - see 2008, for example, which was quite a significant pull-back - but the long term trend is clear enough, provided you do buy in the right locations.<br><br>
</div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Down under</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>It is worth noting that cash rate futures markets in Australia are pricing in at least one more interest rate cut in this cycle, while implied yields already suggest that two further cuts by 2017 is a distinct possibility.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/30/ASX.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/30/ASX.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Even in the more bullish case scenarios, it appears likely that there are couple of years worth of slack in the labour market to be mopped up.<br><br>You can clearly see in the first chart of this blog post above the impact of the UK's macroprudential measures in 2014.<br><br>The City regulator the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) "ran interference" with a series of measures known as the Mortgage Market Review last year, which temporarily disrupted growth in the London housing market.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Macroprudential measures can undoubtedly slow the market for a while - HSBC will be the next bank to put the cold freeze on new investor loans in Australia - but ultimately nothing gets to work on cooling a housing market quite like higher interest rates.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unfortunately in Britain the emerging threat of an interest rate hike in 2016 (after a long hiatus since March 2009) now seems to be resulting in a surge of activity as buyers dive in before the Bank of England taps on the brakes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Bank of England's mortgage approvals figures released this morning revealed the highest number of approvals in 19 months and the largest monthly jump in borrowing since 2008, with a net increase of <span>£</span>3.4 billion smashing analyst expectations - so the market appears set to accelerate once again, fuelled by record low mortgage rates.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All of these are factors worth taking into account as the line of market observers trying to pick the next turning point in Sydney's housing market lengthens by the day. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Macroprudential fail as London prices rise again: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published building approvals data for August 2015 earlier this week.  The data showed a month-on-month fall in approvals driven by a sharp drop in the number of unit approvals.  Keep in mind that unit approvals tend to be much more volatile than house approvals on a monthly basis.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/06/Chart-1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/06/Chart-1.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span>Over the month there were 18,071 dwelling approvals which was a decline of -6.9% over the month.  Dwelling approvals hit a record high of 20,215 approvals in March 2015 and they are now -7.5% lower.  It does appear that approvals have peaked notwithstanding the fact that they remain at historically high levels.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/06/Chart-2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/06/Chart-2.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>There were 9,882 houses and 8,819 units approved for construction in August 2015.  House approvals actually increased by 4.4% over the month while unit approvals fell by -16.9%.  Year-on-year house approvals have increased by 2.2% compared to an 8.4% lift in unit approvals.  To further highlight the volatility of unit approvals the 8.4% year-on-year increase in August is well down on the 44.2% year-on-year rise in July.  Although it looks as if approvals have peaked it would not surprise to see a sharp rebound in unit approvals next month.</p>
<p>Across the country there was a record high 226,415 dwellings approved for construction over the 12 months to August 2015.  To put the magnitude of approvals in perspective, two years ago over the year to August 2013 there had been 166,658 dwelling approvals nationally.  There has also been a surge in unit approvals over recent years with a record high 48.8% of all dwelling approvals nationally being for units over the past year.  Again, 2 years ago units accounted for 42.5% of all approvals over the year.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/06/Chart-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/06/Chart-3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>It isn’t just the fact that more units are being built, the type of units being constructed is changing dramatically.  Over the 12 months to August 2015, 25.7% of all unit approvals were for townhouses, 10.1% were low rise (less than 4 storeys) and 64.3% were high-rise (4 storeys or more).  The above chart shows that historically townhouses have received the highest proportion of approvals.  Trends have changed quite swiftly, 2 years ago just 49.2% of all unit approvals were high-rise.  The rise in high-rise approvals is reflective of higher densities within our inner city markets.  High rise unit projects also take longer to build than a house or townhouse and as a result the economic benefit is stretched over a longer period.  Of course the fact that we are approving high-rise units at an unprecedented pace also creates some challenges.  Most notably who are buying these properties and over the longer term who is going to live in these units.</p>
<p>The data indicates that dwelling approvals have probably peaked for the current phase however, the number of approvals remains elevated.  This has created a significant pipeline of new construction much of which is high-rise and will take some time to complete.  Because unit development is so dependent upon presales it will be interesting to see just how many of these units are ultimately built.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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Dwelling approvals remain elevated but fall in August: Cameron Kusher 

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<p><span>Mike Tyson is quoted as saying, "everyone has a game-plan until you get punched in the face”.</span></p>
<p><span>So, how do we take this true to life and memorable analogy and personalize it to our business? I spilled my coffee due to convulsive laughter, when I first heard this.</span></p>
<p><span>Like many sides of our personal makeup we, as human beings, personalize or internalize and emotionally invest in what we create and believe in.</span></p>
<p><span>In this particular post, I will look at how we can recession proof “protect” our brand as we move into 2016 - a year with many unknowns when it comes to the survival of real estate agents and their offices, independent or mainstream.</span></p>
<p><span>I'm talking about building a defensive wall that won’t allow adversaries an inch of space but don’t forget, your inner voice can also work against you.</span></p>
<p><span> Yes, you too can punch yourself in the nose and sabotage your business.</span></p>
<p><span>I’m no expert, to say the least; so I called on the experience and expertise of my good friend and brand mentor, Anthony Carroll, from Yellowsneakers to help explore the idea of recession proofing my brand.</span></p>
<p><span>Anthony best explains the relevance and relationship between recession proofing our business and branding with a simple question:</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span>How relevant is your brand when it comes to your purpose and your customers needs? All the elements of your brand should radiate out from your “purpose”.</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span>Unravelling purpose is not just about having an idea, it is about solving a problem and engaging an audience.</span></p>
<p><span>A purpose is a solution to a problem that your target audience can't solve on their own. Your solution should therefore fit the problem but also be delivered in a way that is unique and different to what your competitors offer.</span></p>
<p><span>Staying true to your purpose is KEY to surviving and recession proofing your business.</span></p>
<p><span>The basic principles, on how we build a strong defensive wall, is sometimes forgotten. Most brands with no essence or belief, in other words purpose, will fail. Fail to be noticed and fail to engage the audience it needs to survive.</span></p>
<p><span> A strong brand on the other hand, can weather many storms:</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span>Product failure</span></li>
<li><span>PR fallouts</span></li>
<li><span>Corporate scandal</span></li>
<li><span>Dips in market share</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span>Therefore, the strength of your brand can be gaged by your commitment to its purpose. The purpose that underlines your daily and constant decision making and reason to stay motivated and focused.</span></p>
<p><span>A good example of a brand weathering a PR fallout is the LiveStrong brand started by Lance Armstrong.</span></p>
<p><span>Because of its strong underlying purpose: Lifestyle choices, healthier eating and so on, the brand continues flourish despite the Tour-de-France doping scandal that Lance Armstrong was at the centre of.</span></p>
<p><span>Lance had to step down from the organization he founded and distance himself completely. However, as a result the brand remains relevant in the eyes of its audience.</span></p>
<p><span>People will forgive human frailty and it’s been shown that the more human or personable the brand is, the more supportive people become of the brand.</span></p>
<p><span>More recently, we can look at the VW emissions scandal. Sales for VW and Audi have actually increased. While it might be too early for sales to be affect, yet it will be interesting to see how VW survives this scandal.</span></p>
<p><span>So what happens when we have a kick-ass brand? More people engage with the brand as soon as they understand its core purpose.</span></p>
<p><span>Reflecting on the industry I’m presently engaged in and as I re-read this post, I find myself asking the following questions:</span></p>
<ol>
<li><span>Will the main real estate brands remain true to the nature, the purpose of their founders? or Will they continue to lose the respect of both employees and clients?</span></li>
<li><span>Will the New Year 2016, usher in new real estate brands created by disillusioned employees of some of the more established brands?</span></li>
</ol>
<p><span>No matter what industry you are in and particularly if you are about to launch with a new brand; I do hope these thoughts have been of help.</span></p>
<p><span>I leave you with this thought: never underestimate small beginnings, remain true to your purpose and your brand will make the impact you aimed for.</span></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
<p><em><span>EDWIN ALMEIDA</span> is licensee in charge of <a href="https://www.just-think.com.au/" target="_blank">Just Think Real Estate</a>.<a href="https://www.just-thin.com.au/"><br></a></em></p>
<p><em>He is also the creator of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/JustThinkProperty" target="_blank">Oz Real Estate.TV</a> and a presenter for <a href="https://propertyinvestingvault.com/" target="_blank">propertyinvestingvault.com</a>.</em></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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Recession proof your real estate business: Edwin Almeida

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<div>As promised, a quick look around the traps at where APRA's cooling measures have slowed investor lending the hardest, and where some or all of the hot air is coming out of the investor market.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>New South Wales saw $5.6 billion of investor loans in September 2015, taking activity back down to the breached for the first time in December 2014 - though as I analysed here previously, owner-occupier lending has (apparently) soared to unprecedented heights in recent months, more than compensating for the decline.<br><br><span><span>Macroprudential measures undertaken to cool housing markets will inevitably have some unintended consequences, one of which may be that lenders demanding high returns on target potential borrowers with existing equity, which in a curiously reflexive manner might temporarily skew lending towards markets which have already outperformed through the cycle (i.e. Sydney).</span></span><br><span><span><br></span></span><span><span>That's one to watch for next year, but for now total lending for NSW housing of more than $14 billion in September was the biggest month on record, even if the numbers were somewhat fishy.</span></span>
</div>
<div><span><span> </span></span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/17/A1-1.jpg" target="_blank"><span><span>Click to enlarge</span></span></a></div>
<div><span><span><img src="/images/2015/11/17/A1-1.jpg" alt=""></span></span></div>
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<div> </div>
<div>It's a near-identical story in Victoria, with a notable decline in investor lending, but a corresponding leap in owner-occupier lending.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/17/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/17/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>
<span>In Queensland the decline in investor lending has been relatively marked from $2.0 billion in March, although there was a slight rebound in September to $1.67 billion. A spirited increase in owner-occupier lending means that total lending has increased moderately over the past year.</span><br><br><span>Queensland's property markets are something of a multi-speed affair, with certain areas of SEQ - such as some sub sub-regions within Brisbane and the Gold Coast - faring relatively well, but many regional markets decidedly in the doldrums. </span>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/11/17/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/17/A3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Not much in the way of good news to report for Western Australia, with investor lending tailing off sharply in recent months from $1.26 billion in December 2014 to just $0.82 billion in September 2015.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/17/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/17/A4.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>It hasn't been a great time for the South Australian economy in recent years, with the trend unemployment rate of 7.7% way above the national average of 6.1%, while employment growth has been non-existent for years now.<br><br>Fortunes for the state waned further this week when it was finally confirmed that Arrium will cut 250 jobs from its Whyalla steelworks, with further cuts expected from Alinta.</div>
<div>
<br>Despite the ongoing labour market shock, South Australia is home to a number of relatively affordable property markets after so many years of lacklustre growth.<br><br>As such South Australia is also the one state where investor lending is actually in an uptrend on a 12mMA basis, with the $469 million in investor lending in September representing a solid increase on the prior year equivalent figure of $390 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/17/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/17/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>The outlook has been looking up for the economy and labour market of Tasmania lately, but a lack of existing equity in the market following no real dwelling price growth for close to a decade appears to have knocked the investor market for six, with volumes declining from a record high $86 million in June to only $60 million in September.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/17/A6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/17/A6.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>The Australian Capital Territory (ACT) continues to meander along, with investor lending pulling back since June here too, declining from a record spike of $224 million to $142 billion.</span></div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/11/17/A7.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/17/A7.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
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<span>Finally, there are no positives at all to draw from this data series for the Northern Territory, where investor lending has all but collapsed over the past year from $122 million to $75 million.</span><br><br><span>With elevated vacancy rates and nose-diving rents, Darwin and other parts of the Top End are heading for a potentially sharp and long overdue property market correction.</span>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/11/17/A8.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
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<span>Overall, it has become clear that APRA's cooling measures have worked quickly and effectively, knocking out a good deal of riskier investor lending right across the board.</span><br><br><span>The property markets story for 2016 will largely be of to what extent lenders can push up the market share of owner-occupier loans in order to compensate for the evident decline in investor volumes.</span>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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