IN BRIEF

<ul>
	<li>
	Just three double-storey Sky Homes sit at the top of The Waterline, each with its own private marina berth and rooftop terrace.
	</li>
	<li>
	Construction on The Waterline is complete, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.
	</li>
	<li>
	Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and are priced from $3.65 million.
	</li>
</ul>

<hr />
Lewis Land has opened the first completed sky home for inspection at Harbour Shores, giving buyers their first opportunity to step inside one of just three double-storey residences crowning The Waterline.

Each sky home comes with its own private marina berth, rooftop terrace and Broadwater views, combining the scale of a larger home with direct access to the boating lifestyle that underpins the wider <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366708]

Lewis Land Head of Development Michael Long said the inclusion of a berth with every Sky Home had become increasingly valuable as marina access across the Gold Coast tightened.

“Marina berths are becoming increasingly difficult to secure across the Gold Coast, so including one with every Sky Home makes this a genuinely rare offering,” Long said.

“The private 70-berth marina will accommodate boats up to 12 metres in length and is positioned just 2.5 kilometres from the Broadwater, placing the open ocean only 15 minutes away.

“Being able to step out of your home onto your boat is a rare luxury, and it’s something residents here can look forward to when it opens later this year.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366709]

The display opening comes as construction completes on The Waterline, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.

The three Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and each feature three bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive kitchens with butler's pantries and large balconies taking in the Broadwater outlook.

Each residence also has three secure basement car spaces and additional storage.

“This is the first opportunity the Gold Coast has had to step into Harbour Shores and see, touch and feel what we’re bringing to life here,” Long said.

“There are only three Sky Homes within The Waterline, ranging in size from 282sqm to 367sqm, with each residence featuring three large bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive custom-built kitchens with butler’s pantry, and large balconies capturing Broadwater views.”

<img alt="Harbour Shores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bab65e10-4fab-45e1-92d8-fc56e2ab98ff" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%202.00.16%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=XT8q76LsPkw3cYTsvN3JfFDaPLud90PN" />

Residents of The Waterline will have access to a private pool, along with Harbour Shores' wider collection of amenity including a lagoon pool, social clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga facilities and sauna.

Lewis Land partnered with Studio Collective to furnish the completed display, with the interiors designed to demonstrate how the residences could function as permanent homes rather than simply as show apartments.

Studio Collective Director Melissa Park said the surrounding waterways informed the interiors, but in a more restrained way than a traditional coastal scheme.

“We drew inspiration from the canals and coastal surrounds, but our approach was to interpret that subtly through layered materials and a grounded palette of earthy tones, rather than literal coastal references,” Park said.

“We introduced hero moments of green and teal to reference the surrounding waterways, while mirrored elements help reflect natural light.

“The result is a residence that feels elevated yet comfortable, somewhere buyers can genuinely imagine themselves living, entertaining and unwinding.”

Sky Homes are priced from $3.65 million.

Lewis Land is also offering private marina berths with The Residences, its limited collection of three and four-bedroom villas positioned directly along the Harbour Shores waterfront boardwalk.

Three-bedroom villas are priced from $2.99 million, while four-bedroom residences start from $3.19 million.

Harbour Shores is being marketed by Colliers International.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Joel Robinson

Lewis Land opens sky home display as The Waterline completes at Harbour Shores

St Vincent de Paul Society Housing Australia has filed plans for a major mixed-use housing precinct on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, adding another significant proposal to a pocket around North Sydn​ey Station that is quickly becoming one of the LGA's busiest development zones.

The State Significant Development Application covers a 5,990 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1-19-mackenzie-street-lavender-bay-nsw-2060">1-19 MacKenzie Street and 211 Blues Point Road in Lavender Bay</a>, immediately south of Nor​th Sydney Station and between the commercial core and the lower-rise Lavender Bay Heritage Conservation Area.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal would deliver a new residential tower comprising 88 build-to-sell apartments and 19 affordable apartments, alongside a separate co-living building with 57 rooms and a building manager's studio.

It would also see the significant restoration and upgrade of St Francis Xavier Catholic Church, the adaptive reuse of the former school building, new parish facilities, retail, a new public square and around 1,000 sqm of publicly accessible open space.

<img alt="Vinnies North Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d5dd7f87-a617-463e-b577-17541e01f0e9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.13%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4R8TsFN3P_LrrXO2HswTOIrx2blil8lh" />

The project is seeking a concurrent rezoning of the site to R4 High Density Residential and an increase in the maximum building height to allow a tower reaching RL120, or up to 20 storeys. The proposal was progressed through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The build-to-sell component will be weighted toward larger apartments, with just six one-bedroom apartments compared with 31 two-beds, 43 three-beds and eight four-bedroom residences.

The 19 affordable apartments will comprise two studios, 15 one-bedroom apartments and two two-bedroom apartments, taking the total apartment component to 107 residences before the 58 co-living rooms are included.

<img alt="Vnnies" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7d568ca5-cb90-4e18-96c6-d9795dba0c56" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GY2R5M9VtQh0EKy1vajaea19PSLOPuRD" />

Wardle's design for the Vinnies site has sought to negotiate that emerging high-rise context while retaining the lower-scale character of MacKenzie Street and the adjoining heritage conservation area.

The main building adopts a three-storey podium and tower arrangement, with the podium aligned to the ridgeline and front setback of St Francis Xavier Church.&nbsp;Wardle has designed the podium with colonnades, seating, recessed entries and active ground-floor frontages, with sandstone-toned precast concrete and face brick referencing the materiality of the existing church.

The tower then steps back eight metres to the south and six metres to the north before rising in a sculpted form comprising four interlocking quadrants. Wardle has also introduced rounded forms and chamfered corners to reduce the tower's perceived bulk and improve view sharing with neighbouring development sites.

Resident facilities and outdoor areas are planned at the separation between the podium and tower at Level 3, oriented toward Sydney Harbour and the CBD skyline.

The tower itself will feature a glass reinforced concrete facade, with recessed balconies and deep reveals used both to provide shading and privacy and frame views toward the harbour and city. The lower levels take a different architectural approach, using brick and sandstone-toned finishes intended to establish a stronger relationship with St Francis Xavier Church. The Church itself will be conserved and upgraded for its continued use, while the former school building will be adaptively reused as part of the co-living component.

<img alt="Lavendar Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2d4418ad-90aa-4d49-af93-c80b140aea80" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.09.47%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Kv4gzbsACaGvZSRuaqcfGC54jEJRXIDJ" />

&nbsp;

The proposal adds to an increasingly concentrated pipeline of residential development around Blue Street, MacKenzie Street and Lavender Bay.

Just west of the site, Central Element lodged plans earlier this year for one of the most significant residential developments proposed in Lavender Bay in recent years.

Central Element's SJB-designed scheme at 64-66 Lavender Street and 3-7 Middlemiss Street would deliver 163 apartments across two towers rising 23 and 32 storeys, replacing five existing apartment buildings containing 32 homes. The project also forms part of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-central-element-reveals-lavender-bay-apartment-plans?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener" target="_blank">First look: Central Element reveals Lavender Bay apartment plans</a>

Immediately around North Sy​dney Station, another two significant proposals have emerged at 5 and 15 Blue Street.

Zurich Australian Insurance Properties is seeking to adaptively reuse its longstanding commercial building at 5 Blue Street, directly above North Sydney Station, rather than demolishing the structure.

Its SSDA proposes converting the building into a 14-storey mixed-use development with 62 apartments and 86 co-living rooms, together with ground-floor retail and a major refurbishment of Blue Street Plaza. The application is currently at the Response to Submissions stage.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-zurich-targets-north-sydney-office-conversion-with-148-unit-proposal-above-metro-station">First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station</a>

&nbsp;

First look: Vinnies files for 20-storey Lavender Bay apartment tower as North Sydney housing pocket heats up

When the opportunity arose for South Australian developer Palumbo to return to Kent Town, where it had previously delivered East Park Apartments and the East 
Rundle Apartments, it wasn't one the longstanding developer-builder was going to pass up.

The decision was quickly vindicated, with more than 30 apartments sold within the first month of launching <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/royal-apartments-kent-town-2-8-north-terrace-kent-town-sa-5067">Royal Apartments</a> to the market.

The 206-apartment development, which will bring significant new supply to Adelaide's tightly held eastern city fringe, also gives <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/palumbo">Palumbo</a> the opportunity to bring new life to one of Kent Town's most recognisable watering holes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376073]

Royal Apartments incorporates the historic Royal Hotel, a venue Palumbo Managing Director Daniel Palumbo said has a longstanding connection with the local community.

"Everyone in the area has history with the Royal Hotel," Palumbo told Apartments.com.au.

"It was quite an active pub and social gathering place for locals. We want to bring it back to its former glory."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376072]

The wider development will comprise two residential towers alongside the restored hotel, sitting on North Terrace opposite the Adelaide Park Lands.

For Palumbo, the project also marks a return to familiar territory.

The developer completed East Park Apartments next door more than a decade ago and jumped at the opportunity to develop in Kent Town again when the Royal Hotel site became available.

"The opportunity emerged, and we moved to secure the site," Palumbo said.

"We were approached by the previous landowner, who said they had extensive commitments in Sydney and weren't in a position to deliver the project.

"We took over the site and within six months recut the design scheme to be more in keeping with the type of development we want to bring to Adelaide.

"Now we're on the market and those changes have really resonated with local buyers."

That has translated into a strong start to sales, with 33 apartments transacting in the project's first 35 days.

Palumbo said the early purchaser profile had been consistent with the group's traditional focus on owner-occupiers rather than investor-led apartment stock.

"Local owner-occupiers have always been our market," he said.

"There are always some investors, but we've never developed what would be called traditional development stock. Owner-occupiers are very much our market."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376068]

The buyer mix has been diverse so far, with downsizers and younger professionals both accounting for a significant portion of early sales.

South Australia's current stamp duty settings, which allow&nbsp;eligible homeowners in South Australia aged 60 savings of up to $103,830 on stamp duty when they downsize to a new property valued at up to $2 million,&nbsp;have helped encourage downsizer activity, while younger buyers in their late 20s and early 30s have been attracted to the opportunity to live immediately outside the CBD while still being able to walk into the city.



Location has been a major part of the proposition for both buyer cohorts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376075]

Royal Apartments sits on North Terrace directly opposite the Adelaide Park Lands, with residents able to walk through the parklands toward the East End, Rundle Street and Rundle Mall.

Apartments have been positioned to capture views across the parklands, Adelaide skyline, Botanic Gardens and Adelaide Hills.

Palumbo believes the scarcity of developable land along this section of the Park Lands makes the site particularly difficult to replicate.

"There's very few allotments on that side that can be developed," he said.

"If this location was in New York and you were sitting on Central Park, you'd be talking about a $60 million apartments."

Royal Apartments will offer a broad mix of residences, ranging from one-bedroom apartments through to four-bedroom sub-penthouses and penthouses.

Current listings include one-bedroom apartments from $680,000, while larger three and four-bedroom residences are priced around $2.5 million.

Residents will have access to a swimming pool, gym, barbecue and recreation areas, residents' lounge and dining space, and a communal deck.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376067]

The apartments will feature generous balconies, while secure parking, bicycle storage and storage cages will also be provided.

A porte-cochère-style arrival and drop-off area has also resonated with buyers, particularly those attracted to being able to walk into the CBD during the day while retaining secure vehicle access at home.

Palumbo is acting as developer, architect and builder on Royal Apartments, continuing the vertically integrated model it has used across its South Australian portfolio.

The group was also behind the $150 million Sofitel Adelaide, the 251-room five-star hotel and residential tower which opened in 2021.

Palumbo said Royal's launch had come at an interesting time for the broader Adelaide apartment market.

Buyer confidence had initially been impacted by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Budget and broader economic conditions, but Palumbo believes sentiment is beginning to improve against a backdrop of significant investment flowing into South Australia.

He pointed to increased activity across defence and resources, including Olympic Dam, as potential long-term drivers of the state's economy and housing market.

"Money is starting to flow into Adeliade, significant amounts as Adelaide bucks the trend of the rest of the country.," Palumbo said.

"There's a lot of activity in the economy over the next decade. I think more investment will come into this market."

Early works on Royal Apartments are expected to commence this year, with major construction activity and cranes anticipated on site from early next year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6109]

Palumbo's return to Kent Town strikes early chord with buyers

Go-to builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/graya">GRAYA</a> is continuing to bulk out its already impressive and diverse apartment portfolio across South East Queensland. Their latest milestone is securing development approval for Silk, its boutique riverfront apartment development in St Lucia.

The approval clears&nbsp;the way for the team to begin construction planning for the 22-residence project.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/silk-st-lucia-16-18-sandford-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">Silk</a> will rise 15 levels from an 810 sqm site at 16-18 Sandford Street, occupying a prominent bend of the Brisbane River with a prized northern aspect across Orleigh Park toward the Brisbane CBD.

The approved scheme will comprise 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences, continuing GRAYA's move into larger-format apartment developments targeting Brisbane's prestige owner-occupier market.

The project has been designed around the site's broad river frontage and dual-direction views, with GRAYA prioritising larger residences, privacy and outlook over apartment yield.

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa5c2349-f96c-4914-a812-1f2cd6827af8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WY0vEU_7vYjeRJKQHiCwFdMxu8PvFh52" />

GRAYA Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Rob Gray said the project had been shaped around local homeowners wanting to remain in St Lucia without maintaining a traditional family home.

"St Lucia is one of those suburbs people do not want to leave," Gray said.

"They know the river, the trees, UQ, the golf course, Toowong and Indooroopilly, and that familiarity is hard to replace.

"True riverfront opportunities here are exceptionally scarce. What we have designed at Silk is a way to stay in the suburb people love, with the scale and privacy of a private home and far less to maintain.

"This is not typical apartment product. It is a proper home on the river, and that is exactly what this market has been missing."

The approval comes as new apartment development continues to increase across the St Lucia and neighbouring Toowong corridor, although direct riverfront sites remain considerably more tightly held.

GRAYA Co-founder and Managing Director Andrew Gray said securing the approval had removed a significant element of development risk from Silk.

"Genuine riverfront sites of this quality in St Lucia are not something that comes up regularly," Gray said.

"The approval removes a substantial layer of execution risk, and the location underwrites demand in a way very few inner-city sites can.

"The fundamentals here are as strong as anything we have assessed in Brisbane."

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d0f3d734-65e1-48e8-8ed3-2e0715ffcdd9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sOLSs_jdHkXLWbBKzRyayf5BfTb2vPsD" />

Silk will see GRAYA return to a stretch of the Brisbane River where it already has recent construction experience. The vertically integrated group recently completed ARC in neighbouring Toowong as builder for developer Spyre, delivering the riverfront project on a constrained site.

GRAYA will take a different role at Silk, controlling the project from design and development through construction and aftercare under its vertically integrated model.

The development will include a gym and resident leisure areas at ground level, integrated with the river's edge.

Silk joins a growing pipeline for GRAYA across Brisbane and the Gold Coast, which includes Enclave, The Gallery, Coral and Ripple.

The developer-builder has also recently lodged plans for its largest project to date, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-silo-19-chester-street-newstead-qld-4006">The Silo</a>, a proposed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/graya-buys-frasers-newstead-site-plans-the-silo-between-james-street-and-gasworks-precincts">$700 million mixed-use development</a> in Brisbane's James Street precinct.

Silk is expected to predominantly target local owner-occupiers and prestige buyers seeking a permanent riverfront home in Brisbane's inner west.

Registrations of interest are now open, with further details on the project and construction program to be released as it progresses.

<hr />
<h2>SILK PROJECT FACTS</h2>

Developer-builder: GRAYA

Project: Silk

Location: 16-18 Sandford Street, St Lucia

Apartments: 22

Built form: 15 levels

Site: 810 sqm riverfront holding

Mix: 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences

Status: Development approved

Next step: Construction planning underway

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152168]

GRAYA greenlit for riverfront St Lucia apartment development, Silk

Abadeen has released the whole-floor penthouse crowning its recently completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/park-residences-cremorne-2-sutherland-street-cremorne-nsw-2090">Park Residences</a> development in Cremorne, bringing the near-300 sqm residence to market for the first time.

Occupying the entire top floor of the boutique Lower North Shore development, the penthouse includes 221 sqm of internal living and a 74 sqm wraparound terrace, with a prized north-facing aspect taking in views across Middle Harbour.

The residence has been completed and fully furnished following a collaboration between Abadeen Executive Chairman Justin Brown and internationally recognised interior designer Jack Freeman, Founder and Managing Director of FREEMAN &amp; CO.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/abadeen">Abadeen</a> and Freeman approached the penthouse as a finished home, sourcing furniture, artwork, lighting and objects from Australia and overseas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378718]

Pieces from Parisian design house Pierre Augustin Rose sit alongside contemporary artworks and bespoke lighting, with Freeman drawing on recent visits to PAD Paris and Salone del Mobile Milano for the final collection.

Brown said the aim was to create a penthouse that felt more like a large-scale private home than a traditional apartment.

"The experience begins the moment the lift doors open. You're welcomed into an elegant dining room before the home opens into an extraordinary living space framed by sun-drenched harbour views.

"Every time someone walks through the front door they pause. It's not just the view, it's the incredible sense of space, the warmth created by the northern sunlight that fills the interiors, and the way every room connects so effortlessly.

"It has all the proportions of a luxury home, while delivering the effortless lifestyle and personalised experience of living in a world-class six-star hotel, combined with the simplicity and convenience of apartment living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378713]

A secure lift provides exclusive access to the penthouse level, opening to a dedicated arrival foyer and dining area before the residence expands into its main living and entertaining spaces.

Floor-to-ceiling glazing runs across the northern side of the home, connecting the interiors with the terrace and Middle Harbour outlook.

The penthouse also features a fireplace and substantial chef's kitchen, while the wraparound terrace has been designed to accommodate both everyday outdoor living and larger-scale entertaining.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378720]

Freeman said the interiors had been deliberately kept restrained to complement the scale, natural light and outlook already established by the architecture.

"The penthouse is a serene study in quiet luxury," Freeman said.

"The interior pairs soft, sculptural forms with warm timber, pale stone and a restrained neutral palette. Curated artwork and metallic accents add depth, while abundant natural light creates a calm, effortlessly refined atmosphere. In my world, less is always more."

Freeman said the approach was centred around collecting individual pieces rather than simply decorating the apartment.

"Every material, every object and every piece of furniture has been curated with intention. I am a true believer in collecting versus decorating.

"The architecture already provided extraordinary natural light, remarkable volume and an uninterrupted connection to Middle Harbour. Our role was to complement those qualities with unique one-of-a-kind pieces of fine art and collectible design sourced from recent travels around the world."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378694]

Among the collection are solid bronze sculptures by Lorenzo Quinn, alongside a curated crystalware collection and pieces sourced from international design fairs.

Park Residences sits opposite Cammeray Golf Club, Cammeray Croquet Club and Grand Slam Tennis Cammeray, around 300 metres from Neutral Bay Village and its established collection of restaurants, cafés and retail.

Brown said the combination of a whole-floor floorplan, northern aspect and proximity to Neutral Bay was becoming increasingly difficult to find on the Lower North Shore.

"Completed whole-floor penthouses with a sun-drenched north-facing aspect and sweeping Middle Harbour views are exceptionally rare," Brown said.

"Add a quiet position opposite golf, croquet and tennis facilities, a level walk to Neutral Bay Village and only minutes to the CBD, and you have a lifestyle that's incredibly difficult to replicate.

"This is a home that offers the privacy and generosity of a luxury residence together with the convenience of one of Sydney's best-connected harbourside locations."

The penthouse will be exclusively marketed by SRM Residential.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=114246]

Abadeen unveils penthouse at Park Residences in Cremorne

Property market

<html><body>
I can count on the fingers of one of Homer Simpson’s hands the number of people who commentate on real estate and actually understand it.
There are plenty of people at the coalface of the industry who get real estate. It’s just that you’re never likely to hear about them in the media.
Among the public pontificators, there’s a lack of understanding about the drivers of events in real estate that’s become a contagion on the industry.
There certainly aren’t any journalists working for metropolitan newspapers who have any knowledge of market dynamics. It’s become very last century to actually know about the subject on which you write.
They compound their ignorance and confound their audience by seeking enlightenment from others who know little, notably economists. 
When I consider all the economists who have been regular lecturers about real estate – Shane Oliver, Saul Eslake, Gerard Minack, Paul Bloxham, poor old Steve Keen, pretty much everyone who works for Moody’s, absolutely everyone employed by CommSec – I can’t think of one who understands this business.
Most of them employ the Graham Richardson method of media commentary – a big ego connected to a hyperactive mouth, without the intervention of coherent thought processes. It works a treat.
It’s how much noise you make that matters. Knowledge is optional.
There are specialist real estate research companies that should bring some expertise to the table, but they’re all so devoted to making money out of computer-generated numbers they don’t conduct any real analysis. They just shovel out median price data to generate publicity. Most of their employees could write their real estate smarts on the back of a postage stamp in crayon.
The lowest-common-denominator mistake they all make – and it’s the curse of real estate consumers trying to understand what’s going on – is that they generalise. To do more would require genuine real estate wisdom. 
And because they generalise, they mislead and confuse – themselves and others.
This is why none of the chattering economists and others who sermonize on property can explain why this prolonged era of record low interest rates has managed to produce a property boom in only one Australian city.
They’re all so flummoxed by this that they pretend it’s not happening. Quoting a single generalised national figure to describe what happening to “Australian property values” is the limit of their contribution.
But the statement “Australian house prices rose 9.8% in the year to 30 June” (the latest ABS Property Price Index) is an absurdity, because prices have risen that much only in Sydney. In six of the eight capital cities, it’s been less than 3%, including two with “negative growth”.
If genuine market analysis happened in this country, someone would be making a study of this strange occurrence. Why has Sydney boomed and nowhere else? (Here’s a clue: it’s not related to interest rates, as I explained in my column on 18 August).
Last time real estate went seriously ballistic in Australia, everywhere boomed. In 2003, all of the eight capital cities had double-digit growth in their median house prices. The worst was a 13% rise. Four did better than 20% and the city average rise was 19%.
That’s what everyone expects a property boom to look like. And that’s why economists and media can’t get their heads around the current situation. 
It’s all about interest rates, isn’t it? So why isn’t it booming everywhere? Why are Perth and Darwin going backwards? Why aren’t Canberra, Brisbane and Adelaide firing? 
Maybe the tools we use to measure things aren’t up to the task. Perhaps the blunt instrument of median price data, with a single figure to describe each capital city, needs to be replaced.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
 
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Lack of industry knowledge contagious: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
The latest doomsday forecasts for Australian real estate call to mind the shameful history of overseas spruikers and local economists in getting it spectacularly wrong on house prices.
There’s nothing new in individuals with ulterior motives (usually seeking publicity for a seminar tour, new business venture or a book launch) getting acres of free mileage by predicting our markets will collapse. The 60 Minutes debacle is merely the latest.
I note that the nation’s worst forecaster of property trends, academic Steve Keen, has publicly admitted recently that he got it “hopelessly wrong” with his price forecasts. It’s about time - Keen famously predicted in 2008 that Australian house prices would fall 40% in 2009. Prices rose that year and in the years since Keen has rehashed his predictions in various guises with different time frames but with the same result – he’s been wrong every time. Now he has written a column for Business Spectator which says: “I was hopelessly wrong on house prices. Ask me how.”
But Keen has lots of company at the bottom when it comes to faulty forecasting, sometimes perhaps for dodgy reasons. 
One of the worst examples was US doomsday specialist Harry S Dent who came to Australian in 2011 for a seminar tour and sought (and received) publicity by predicting our home values would fall 40% in 2012. He advised Sydney owners to “sell their excess real estate”. We all know how well that forecast worked out.
But Dent was back in Australia two years later for another lucrative seminar tour and again went to the media for some free mileage. He said house prices would crash “some time in 2014”, with values falling at least 27% in Sydney and Melbourne. The market made a fool of him again.
Given the state of Australia media, I have no doubt that if Dent shows up again next year, he will make the same style of prediction and will be handed another round of massive national publicity.
Many others have come to our shores and used the Armageddon formula of generating publicity for their venture.
Little-known US spruiker Jorgan Wirsz suddenly became well-known in 2012 by forecasting a “bloodbath” in Australian real estate, with home values tipped to fall 60% in 2013. He also said land values would drop 90%.
Think for a moment what that means. He was suggesting that residential land in Australia would be almost worthless. Nothing remotely like has ever occurred in the history of the world, not even in the worst basket-case economy post-GFC. But Australian media chose to give these ridiculous claims credibility. And of course they were subsequently shown to be nonsense.
There have been many others, including another US spruiker called Jeremy Grantham who claimed in 2010 that the “Australian housing bubble” would burst that year. 
There also have been plenty of local commentators, mostly economists who don’t understand the dynamics of Australian real estate, who have forecast significant declines.
Morgan Stanley’s Gerard Minack said in August 2010 that property was 40% over-valued and the bubble was about to burst.
AMP’s Shane Oliver, who regularly calls it wrong on real estate prices, claimed in 2005 that homes were grossly over-valued and there would be no growth anywhere in Australia for the next decade. Those 10 years have come and gone, and I have to ask: How did that one work out for you, Shane?
Oliver was in the media again in June 2012 claiming that house prices were “over-valued’ and “chronically weak” and were heading for “a sharp fall”. Ooops, again.
Commonwealth Bank chief Ralph Norris said in November 2011 that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe had put Australian house prices at risk.
Prosper Australia claimed in August 2011 that Melbourne was about to experience “a US-style property crash with price falls of 30%”. (Those who suggest Australia must decline because it happened in the US appear to be unaware that US markets dropped for clear reasons, and those circumstances don’t exist in Australia. 
Michael Power of Investec declared in September 2012 that Australian house prices would fall by up to 20% by the end of 2014.
The Herald Sun ran the headline “Prices could fall as higher interest rates bite” based on comments by CommSec’s Craig James. (This notion that rising interest rates means a market crash is quite prevalent, but there is historical evidence to support the idea.)
Citibank economist Josh Williamson said in June 2013 that house prices would peak in March 2014 and fall thereafter. Propell National Valuers put out a media release in June 2014 declaring the end of the Sydney boom and, around the same time, Morgan Stanley analyst Malcolm Wood also called the end for Sydney, saying:” If you’re an investor, you’ve missed the boat.” 
Fringe dweller Leigh van Onselen, who has a lifetime of raging against real estate, stated in February 2012 that the “slow melt” in Australian house prices would continue. 
Another guerilla-style opponent of all things real estate, Kris Sayce, shouted in March 2011 that “the value of your home could fall 61% the minute interest rates start rising”.
The list goes on. And there’s a clear pattern. Since the start of the 21st Century, claims of markets collapsing, bubbles bursting and prices disintegrating have been an almost weekly occurrence. Journalists never seem to tire of doomsday stories.
They’ve all been wrong. And they’ve been wrong for clear reasons. Australia is not in recession, it does not have high unemployment, we don’t have a vast oversupply of dwellings nationwide and our banks don’t lend recklessly. We would need all of those circumstances to fall into alignment, as they did in the US around the time of the GFC, before our property markets would be in danger.
Property Observer would welcome a response from any of those named to give the context on their call.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
</body></html>

Company at the bottom for faulty market forecasters: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
<div>It looks increasingly as though 2016 is going to be a becalmed year for Sydney's property markets. Some articles doing the rounds this week suggested that apartment prices had already fallen in Sydney, but as you would expect different market sectors and sub-regions have behaved somewhat differently.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Mainly these declines would relate to new stock or "off-the-plan" or high-rise apartment purchases, some of which in my opinion is quite over-priced and quite risky, and some outer suburban or secondary locations where auction clearance rates have tanked. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Residex released its April market update on Friday which showed that median apartment prices in Sydney had increased by +11.5 per cent over the year to March, to a fresh all-time high of $691,500.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Following a +2.4 per cent increase in March, the median unit price growth has all but overhauled median house price growth in the harbour city, which has slowed to +12.2 per cent over the year to March.  This need not be such a surprise - at this stage in the cycle the stamp duty on detached housing in desirable locations has become increasingly prohibitive, acting as a drag on price growth.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney's median house price is now $1,042,500 which is +$271,500 higher than when the latest round of doomsday predictions were rolled out at the beginning of 2014. And this median price is also +$381,500 than in the middle of 2012 when some other crash predictions were being bantered around. With the additional stamp duty burden ramping up by nearly $18,000 over the past four years, rational buyers will increasingly look towards properties they can add value to, or scale down their entry price accordingly.  While auction results are still throwing out some enormous results (for example, this <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-terrace-nsw-potts+point-115126003" target="_blank">Potts Point terrace</a> was resold for a thunderous $13 million this week, almost doubling the record price for a Sydney terraced house) it does look as though the wider market away from the inner suburbs has now slowed in accordance with APRA's wishes. </div>
<div>
 According to Residex medians, there was a continued steady growth in the year to March for Brisbane houses (+3.5 per cent) and Brisbane units (+4.2 per cent).  
</div>
<div>Economy more upbeat</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There have been quite a few positive signs for the economy of late - an extraordinarily strong NAB business survey saw conditions at their equal highest level in 8 years, and the AIG Performance of Manufacturing Index gauge surging to its highest reading in 12 years.  Lately there has been a strong bounce in commodity prices, sending some of the oversold major resources companies on a serious bull run. The March Labour Force figures showed that the national unemployment rate has kept ticking down to its lowest level in two-and-a-half years, and quite a bit sooner than had been expected.  More detailed employment figures due out on Thursday will confirm that Sydney's economy is rather enjoying its infrastructure and building boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/18/UE.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/18/UE.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>As for the much-feared "mining cliff", well that  has all but been and gone, meaning that resources construction will no longer be such a significant drag on the economy in about 12 to 18 months time.</div>
<div>
 The latest available data only runs to December 2015, but as we are now about three-and-a-half years beyond the peak estimates have shown that some three quarters of the decline may now be in the rear view mirror, while record residential construction activity has helped to offset the decline. That said, Western Australia and the Northern Territory still evidently have quite a way to fall back yet.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/18/C1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/18/C1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Good news, and futures markets are now less than convinced of the need for a further interest rate cut in this cycle.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Financial Stability Review (FSR)</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other news the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its April 2016 Financial Stability Review (FSR) on Friday. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The RBA noted that spreads on Australian banks' wholesale funding costs had increased a little over the past six months, partly due to one-off factors related to international regulation. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, spreads have declined a bit of late as the outlook has brightened, and having successfully issued some $50 billion in bonds since the beginning of the year Australian banks are set to comfortably meet their funding requirements through this calendar year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite the moderate increase in spreads, banks' long and short debt pricing spread to swap remains a world away from where it was in, say 2012, let alone from the unholy spike of 2008.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In any event Australian banks are now less exposed to wholesale funding risk because first deposit funding and now equity funding have been stepped up respectively.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has been very little impact on deposit rates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/18/FUNDING.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<img src="/images/2016/04/18/FUNDING.jpg" alt=""> 
</div>
<div>Non-performing asset ratios on domestic books are generally speaking in pretty good nick, having continued to improve in the latter half of 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/18/FSR1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/18/FSR1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>For the majors non-performing loans are also in very good shape, although the resources regions and mining towns of Western Australia and Queensland are expected to cop some default action, an unfortunate occurrence which has been known about for some time. </div>
 <div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/18/FSR2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/18/FSR2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
</div>
<div>The RBA highlighted the potential for apartment oversupply and possible related settlement risks, while noting that there has been little evidence of the latter to date, and also little evidence of any meaningful slowdown in demand from China.  Despite the high levels of apartment construction, I'm coming around the view that with more than half of the dwelling stock effectively financed by offshore investors - overwhelmingly from China - such a ratio of apartments may never make it to the rental market that the actual impact on supply could yet prove to be a fizzer.  No stress? The RBA remains relatively unperturbed with household debt levels, for although gross household debt has increased so too have aggregated mortgage buffers (balances held in offsets and redraw facilities), up to an enormous 17 per cent of outstanding loan balances - that's the equivalent of more than 2.5 years of mortgage repayments at current interest rate levels. The RBA reiterated that most household debt is held by the households that can afford to service it, with half of household debt held by the top quintile of income earners. Meanwhile, indicators of stress on overall loan portfolios remain low.  However, this review did acknowledge that the households without mortgage buffers are often those in the lower income brackets, which may present a market risk in time.  As such, housing markets in lower socio-demographic areas may be at greater risk if either interest rates or unemployment rates rise.  This certainly rings true in the case of Sydney where house prices in the west and at the city fringe have recorded particularly punchy price growth since 2012 - a dynamic which tends to mask any underlying household mortgage stress - but with auction results pointing to ongoing weakness, the fundamentals out west all look rather fragile.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
</div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

The becalmed market: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div dir="ltr"> </div>
<div>
After falling away in March, both new listings and the total volume of homes available for sale across Australia have risen in April.
Over the 28 days ending 1 May 2016, the total number of homes available for sale across the nation rose to 241,633, compared to 235,897 over the 28 day period ending 3 April 2016. However, relative to last year, the total volume of stock listed for sale is -1.7 percent lower, despite the number of newly listed properties being 2.5 percent higher than one year ago.
Of the total stock available for sale, 44.4 percent of properties are located within a capital city, where over the 28 days ending 1 May, 107,199 residential properties were available for sale.
Over the same period, 27,073 new listings were added to the market, accounting for almost 62 percent of new listings added nationally. While the total available stock nationally is lower than it was at the same time last year, capital city listing volumes are 5.1 percent higher (while new listings remain comparable to what was seen one year ago, up just 0.9 percent) suggesting a slower rate of absorption is leading to an increase in stock on market.
<a href="/images/2016/05/09/201605-Table.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/05/09/201605-Table.png" alt="">
In terms of total stock available for sale, across the individual capital cities, Sydney (+22.0 percent), Brisbane (+3.4 percent), Adelaide (+4.7 percent), Perth (+8.6 percent) and Darwin (+12.2 percent) all have more stock available for sale relative to one year ago, while each of the other cities has less stock available for sale.
While Sydney’s listed stock seems much higher than it was one year ago, if we take a look at the same period in 2014, current listings are just 2.7 percent higher. 2015 was a strong year for the Sydney housing market, with annual home value growth peaking at 18.4 percent in July and strong levels of vendor confidence with market metrics such as low levels of vendor discounting, fast selling times, high auction clearance rates and quick stock absorption further demonstrates the strength across the Sydney property market.
Despite current listings being much higher than they were last year, relative to historic levels across the city, total listings in Sydney remain much lower.
To put this into perspective, current listings across the city are -12.5 percent below what they were in 2010, -22.2 percent lower than 2011, and -34.7 per cent lower than 2012. On the other hand, in Darwin and to a lesser extent, Perth, total listings have been trending upwards for some time now, while new listings remain relatively flat.
<a href="/images/2016/05/09/201605-capital-city.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/05/09/201605-capital-city.png" alt="">
When the regional markets in each state and territory are factored in, Queensland (0.4 per cent), South Australia (7.8 per cent), Western Australia (6.9 per cent) and the Northern Territory (12.8 per cent) are all seeing higher stock volumes than one year ago, while New South Wales (-7.6 per cent), Victoria (-2.9 per cent), Tasmania (-21.0 per cent) and the Australian Capital Territory (-17.4 per cent), all have less residential properties available for sale relative to one year ago.
<a href="/images/2016/05/09/201605-national.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/05/09/201605-national.png" alt="">
 
</div>
</body></html>

smiller-vwPjRHTkST

Residential listings trend higher in April: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

<html><body>
Housing markets show different performances geographically as well as across product types and pricing points.  
Across the capital cities, a useful measure of capital gain across broad price points is our stratified hedonic index.  
The CoreLogic RP Data Stratified Hedonic Index looks at the movement in home values across three broad value based segments of the housing market.  The three segments are divided across quartiles and provide an insight about capital gains across the most affordable 25% of capital city suburbs, the middle 50% of capital city suburbs and the most expensive 25% of capital city suburbs.
<a href="/images/2015/11/23/Chart-11.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/11/23/Chart-11.jpg" alt="">
 
Over the 12 months to October 2015, dwelling values across the combined capital cities increased by 8.2% across the most affordable suburbs, 9.6% across the middle priced suburbs and 11.4% over the most expensive suburbs.  The trends are somewhat different over the past three months with the most affordable suburbs recording the strongest value rises.  
Over the period, the most affordable suburbs have seen values increased by 1.5% compared to 1.2% growth across the middle market and a 1.3% increase in values across the most expensive suburbs.  Over the current growth phase, which broadly commenced in June of 2012, combined capital city home values have increased by 26.5% across the most affordable quarter of capital city suburbs, by 32.4% across the ‘middle’ of the market and by 33.7% across the most expensive quarter of suburbs.
<a href="/images/2015/11/23/Chart-21.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/11/23/Chart-21.jpg" alt="">
 
Looking at the data across the five largest capital cities shows some quite different results.  Across the most affordable capital city suburbs, home value changes over the past year have been recorded at +14.3% in Sydney, +8.8% in Melbourne, +3.1% in Brisbane, +3.4% in Adelaide and -1.4% in Perth.
  Looking at the middle 50% of suburbs the value changes over the past year have been recorded at: +14.8% in Sydney, +11.2% in Melbourne, +4.6% in Brisbane, +2.6% in Adelaide and -2.9% in Perth.  Finally the most expensive quarter of the market recorded value changes over the past year of +17.1% in Sydney, +14.6% in Melbourne, +3.5% in Brisbane, +1.5% in Adelaide and -4.3% in Perth. 
Based on these results you can see that it has been the most expensive suburbs recording the greatest value rises in Sydney and Melbourne with the most affordable suburbs recording the slowest rate of growth.  In Brisbane the middle market is seeing the greatest rise in values while the most affordable suburbs are seeing the slowest rate of growth. In Adelaide and Perth the best performed segment is the most affordable end of the market with the most expensive suburbs the weakest. Note that in Perth all three segments analysed have recorded value falls over the past year.
Focussing on quarterly data, the most affordable suburbs have been the strongest for growth in Melbourne, Adelaide in Perth. The middle market has recorded the strongest value growth over the quarter in Brisbane while in Sydney the most expensive suburbs have recorded the highest rate of value growth.
The differing performance of the segments provides a good insight into the current market dynamics as to where housing demand is strongest.  In Sydney and Melbourne it is typically higher priced stock, in Brisbane it is the middle market and in Adelaide and Perth demand is largely for more affordable housing stock. 
As the rate of growth slows in Sydney and Melbourne we are likely to see the profile of where demand is strongest also change in those cities.  Furthermore, if Sydney and Melbourne buyers look to purchase in other cities they may be able to afford more expensive stock than the local buyers in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.  As a result we may see higher levels of value growth across the higher priced market segments.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.
</body></html>

ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Different magnitudes of market value changes: Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
<div>Residential land values soared by more than $1 trillion dollars in Australia over the three years to June, and by more than half a trillion dollars (+15%) in the last year alone. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since 1989 the total value of land in Australia has surged by well over $4 trillion, with residential use accounting for nearly $3.5 trillion or more than 85 per cent of the increase.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/24/Land.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/24/Land.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Since dwelling prices over the long run are ultimately a derivative of the land value which sits underneath, I always recommend capital city properties as those with the greatest potential for price growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Particularly I look at those located within easy commuting distance of the Central Business District and with a high percentage land value content, which typically means steering well clear of high rise tower blocks.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since 2012, the biggest paper gains for property speculators have been seen in Sydney, with the total value of residential land in New South Wales spiralling by more than 53% in just three financial years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria has also seen land values increase by 35% over the same time period, with broadly similar gains in land values across the next three most populous states in the 20 -22% range.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course, population growth accounts for some of the increase in residential land values, and so too does the prosperity of the local economy, the lower cost of capital, and the relative scarcity or availability of the land in question. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
</div>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
</body></html>

Residential land values soar: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
As the Sydney real estate markets start drawing the curtains on what has been a highly entertaining 2015 year it’s interesting to note some are framing 2016 as the recession year. 
However before we start nailing that coffin we need to look at what possibly may cause a recession and then look for what may avert a recession. Naturally there are many that opt for the let’s wait and see option although I’m of the opinion that we won’t see a technical recession.
Yes in some areas property prices are falling and in many other areas property prices are still performing well. Just last week we set (nearly doubled) the all-time record price for a Cammeray waterfront.  This week a developer released Chatswood Place, a $300 million boutique style development, and in just three hours set a new suburb record as well as securing $160 million in off the plan sales. This is the very same investment market which many were believing was well and truly finished.
Last week the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that business investment spending in the September quarter had fallen 9.2 %. This quarterly result was the worst in the 28 year history of the survey of business investment. The ABS also released the GDP growth which identified growth of 0.9 % thanks to the highest exports in 15 years, an increase in consumer spending and of course the much publicised housing boom more particularly in apartment construction.
We also need to note that Treasury has cut the nation’s potential economic growth rate to 2.75 % down from 3.25 %. This follows three consecutive years of below – trend economic growth where the elephant in the room is the decline in mining.
Now for that beaming light at the end of this tunnel of misery – enter the very cashed – up NSW government. Unlike the vast majority of state and territory governments NSW has an overflow of coin and it’s all going into the biggest infrastructure spend in the state’s history. Over the next four years the NSW government has allocated a staggering $70 billion infrastructure spend which is unprecedented. This in itself will singularly underpin the Sydney housing market given nothing stimulates the markets and consumer confidence like a massive infrastructure spend.
The breakdown is $38 billion to be spent on new transport projects which will also include the second harbour tunnel, North West rail link, South East Light rail, Sydney CBD and WestConnex. The Transgrid lease which brought in a record $10,258 billion is still to be allocated although it has been confirmed that these monies will also be directed into new infrastructure projects.
Following the federal government crackdown on illegal foreign real estate acquisitions in Australia the Significant and Premium Investor Visas have been running at full – speed. It will be very interesting to see the next set of figures and whether there has been a significant spike in applications since the crackdown. The low Australian dollar is also enticing many offshore purchasers and expats and this is now a very strong emerging market within the Sydney real estate markets.
So when one takes the time to actually look at what is going on I find myself (as do many others) not too worried about this so called recession. The last recession was 25 years ago and they aren’t very nice but when you have a state government pouring $70 billion into the NSW economy it would appear that NSW has more Zoom than Gloom. 
To further highlight this the NSW government just appointed Lucy Turnbull (the PM’s wife) as chair of the NSW government’s newly created Greater Sydney Commission. The sole purpose of the Greater Sydney Commission is to stop the infighting at local councils and to speed up developments across the city although I still see councils incompetency as an on – going hurdle.  I’m reliably informed that the premier will hand his greater Sydney Commission special powers and the councils will not like what’s in-store.
Of course not everybody will be convinced but then again, that all adds to the theatre of debate. When the 2016 property markets kick off I’m of the view that the areas within a 15 kilometre radius of the CBD will do very well. But expect more than a few to tell a different tale.
MOSMAN – 2088
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 103
• Number of houses on the market last week – 65
• Number of houses on the market this week – 55
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 66
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 60
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 51
CREMORNE – 2090
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 13
• Number of houses on the market last week – 15
• Number of houses on the market this week – 11
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 25
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 18
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 17
NEUTRAL BAY – 2089
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 10
• Number of houses on the market last week – 8
• Number of houses on the market this week – 8
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 42
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 33
*Number of apartments on the market this week – 30
 
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
</body></html>

robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Some framing 2016 as the recession year: Robert Simeon

<html><body>
Looking into the mainstream-media property reports with respect to rental and vacancy rates; one questions how the data is obtained.
I have from time to time, questioned my brew of coffee but I can do so as I am personally tasting it.
The data about property being provided on the other hand is not as personal to the analysts nor the economists offering their property-charts to the general public.
Most, if not all their data comes from the main "property portals" and are highly reliant on real estate agent's, property manager's (PM) accuracy and detail of what is truly available.
"Trust me I'm a real estate agent, comes to mind..." However, in the case of listing rental-properties, it is prudent not to list all the units in the block: time, resources and the perception to the market are factors to be considered.
The proof is in the pudding
They say the proof is in the pudding. Well, the same may be said for the data and the reports.
The fact is, the data obtained by analysts comes from two main sources, three at best. These sources are; RPData, Domain website and the REA website. Now, how accurate is this data? No where near the truth...
So why is this data flawed? 
Put simply, the data is flawed due to a basic anomaly; real estate agents “property managers” DO NOT place/advertise entire blocks of units on the property portals. At best case, the PM will advertise a mix of units: a one bedroom, a two bedroom and a three bedroom apartment.perhaps even one or two more; if they have a different floor plan.
I have had a recent look at the property portals and across three buildings I know off in Parramatta alone, there are 12 adds which advertise the units available in these blocks. However, across these three high rise blocks, there are approximately 700 apartments.
As a conservative guesstimate, coupled with the conversations I have had with the marketing companies that sold these units; it can be estimated that 80% have been sold to investors.
For now, also consider; how many apartment blocks are being completed and are nearing completion across Sydney? Hmmm a lot, you say? Now add a few more to what you believe. 
You guessed it; a lot available and soon to be available for rent...
You be the judge
For the very reasons I have written about in the past and now; I do not recommend for Investors to buy into the overheated property market of Sydney.
Of late, I have ventured out of Sydney to secure property for our clients. Property with steady rental returns and long term tenancies. More to the point, we have steered away from newly built property with unsustainable rental returns.
The real question
Is there really a shortage of rental property in Sydney? I say NO.
Most definitely not. Now you may dispute this and show me report after report. Again and again I will walk you though what is truly happening on the ground. Take you to, building after building that PM's only list 3-4 properties on the property portals and where there are over 120 units available in the recently built block.
Show me the real data...
EDWIN ALMEIDA is licensee in charge of <a href="https://www.just-think.com.au/" target="_blank">Just Think Real Estate</a>.<a href="https://www.just-thin.com.au/"> </a>
He is also the creator of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/JustThinkProperty" target="_blank">Oz Real Estate.TV</a> and a presenter for <a href="https://propertyinvestingvault.com/" target="_blank">propertyinvestingvault.com</a>.
</body></html>

ealmedia-arK4DBYLjS

Show me the data: Edwin Almeida

<html><body>
Adelaide often flies under the radar for investors. It’s perhaps the most under-rated among the capital cities, despite having delivered good growth rates in the past and currently it leads the nation on some measures, including the rise in sales activity.
Across the Adelaide metro area, the standouts are middle-market precincts like the City of Charles Sturt. This LGA, immediately north and north-west of the Adelaide CBD, is at the forefront of Adelaide’s efforts to evolve its economy, as manufacturing industries fade.
Topping the list of Adelaide projects is the $2 billion Royal Adelaide Hospital, due for completion in late 2016. There is also a serious focus on improved transport infrastructure, including road and rail, which will better connect industrial precincts and outer suburbs with the CBD, the Port of Adelaide and Adelaide Airport.
The City of Charles Sturt attracts people because it’s close to the beaches, the CBD, the airport and regional shopping facilities. Henley Beach is one of Adelaide’s most popular, with a noted restaurant precinct with boutique shopping. 
The LGA has long been considered the sporting and entertainment hub of Adelaide, with national basketball, soccer and football stadiums, three privately-owned golf courses, an international rowing course, the River Torrens Linear Park, the Adelaide Entertainment Centre, the coast and numerous highly-regarded local sporting venues.
The City is well-catered-for in terms of schools and medical services. Health is the largest employer in South Australia and has replaced manufacturing as the largest employer in Charles Sturt, which has two major hospitals: the Queen Elizabeth Hospital (the Western Region’s primary health care provider) and Western Hospital at Henley Beach.
Charles Sturt is a solid middle-market area that offers affordable homes, low vacancies and a strong construction pipeline. 
The LGA has bayside suburbs west of the Adelaide CBD, including rising markets such as Henley Beach (median house price $790,000) and Henley Beach South ($763,000), as well as some more affordable locations such as Findon ($473,000), Kidman Park ($570,000), Semaphore Park ($467,000) and Seaton ($460,000).
Long-term growth rates (average annual growth in median prices over 10 years) are generally 5–6% per year. Henley Beach, Henley Beach South and Woodville Park are slightly higher at 7 percent per year (which means values doubling in 10 years).
Most of properties in the city are stand-alone houses (73 percent), while 28 percent are units, according to the 2011 Census. However, there has been a marked increase in the number of units being built in the last three years.
Vacancies across Charles Sturt are generally low, with many postcodes having vacancy rates below 2 percent. Only postcodes 5020 and 5021 (which includes West Lakes and West Lakes Shore) have vacancies outside the general comfort zone.
Much is happening in Adelaide generally and the City of Charles Sturt specifically, and this is partly attributed to the State Government’s 30-Year Plan for Greater Adelaide.
Using the plan as a guide, Renewal SA is initiating urban renewal developments, led by four major projects valued at over $2 billion. The largest project will see the population of the small inner suburb of Bowden grow from a few hundred residents to 3,500 over the next decade. This area is being revitalised with cafés, restaurants, shops, offices and parks.
The old AAMI Stadium (also known as Football Park) at West Lakes is to be redeveloped. In 2014, the South Australia National Football League sold AAMI Stadium to developers Commercial and General for $71 million. Commercial &amp; General has plans to develop the site into residential, commercial and community land uses. It is estimated 1,600 homes will eventually occupy the site. 
Another Renewal SA project will see land adjacent to the Woodville Railway Station transformed with a mix of medium-density to high-rise dwellings.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
</body></html>

Adelaide the most under-rated among the capital cities: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
It may be the biggest mistake property investors make: once they have bought something, they stop researching.
There’s a common mentality among real estate consumers that the need to stay informed disappears once you’ve fulfilled your buying criteria.
Prior to purchase, some (not all) will spend some time and/or money on research and advice. But they won’t make the same effort, or any effort, to stay informed beyond acquisition. 
I recently hosted a webinar in which Melbourne buyers’ agent and author Miriam Sandkuhler was the guest presenter. One of the key points she impressed upon her audience was the importance of a regular review of your property portfolio and your overall goals and strategies.
Most Australians don’t do that. Set and forget seems to be the overriding philosophy. And many with that approach get caught in bad situations.
Hotspotting receives a lot of distress calls from investors who bought in locations where property values have fallen subsequently.
Sometimes they’ve bought in locations that were never going to perform. But often they’ve bought in an area that delivers growth initially, until something fundamental changes. That causes a downturn in the market – but investor owners often find out too late.
Queensland boom-bust industrial city Gladstone provides a case study. Five or six years ago, this looked like a good place to invest, with three gas projects worth a combined $60 billion (bringing tens of thousands of jobs) poised to start construction. And, for a couple of years, that promise was borne out by results. Rents and prices rose strongly.
But then big changes occurred in that market. One was that developers had flocked in large numbers to that market and too much new product was being built. The problem was exacerbated by the second fundamental shift, which was the decision by the resources companies to use primarily FIFO workforces with personnel staying in temporary accommodation camps, rather than buying or renting local dwellings.
We wrote extensively about the shift in that market and the likely consequences. The message was: stay out of that market – or, if you already own there, now might be a good time to sell before the market drops.
But many of those who had already bought in Gladstone had tuned out. They no longer had their finger on the pulse. By the time many owners realised the tide had turned against them, it was too late to sell without taking a loss.
Anyone who bought in coal-mining town Moranbah in the early part of the century would have enjoyed a decade of the most spectacular capital growth in Australian history. If they’d sold at any point before 2013, they would have made lots of money.
Then the market turned for reasons that are similar to those for Gladstone, with the added element of the big downturn in coal prices. What followed by the polar opposite of the previous spectacular growth. 
Similar, though less dramatic, scenarios are being played out regularly in markets around Australia. Two or three years ago the middle-market suburbs on Brisbane’s northside were market leaders for sales activity and price growth. Small to medium sized developers saw an opportunity and suddenly these areas are awash with development of new units and townhouses. Vacancies have risen to unacceptable levels in some suburbs. 
If you bought something in that precinct two years ago and then focused on other things, you’re probably not aware of the change in the market.
The message again and again is: you can’t stop the research process just because you’ve filled your current buying criteria. You need to stay up to date. And you need to conduct that regular review of your investment situation suggested by Miriam Sandkuhler.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
</body></html>

Property market

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Property market

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News