<p>Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.</p>

<p>The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.</p>

<p>One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.</p>

<p>"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.</p>

<p>"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]</p>

<p>The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.</p>

<p>PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.</p>

<p>"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]</p>

<p>Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.</p>

<p>Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.</p>

<p>The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.</p>

<p>"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.</p>

<p>"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]</p>

<p>Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.</p>

<p>Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]</p>


Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

<p>Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.</p>

<p>The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]</p>

<p>“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.</p>

<p>The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]</p>

<p>“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.</p>

<p>“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]</p>

<p>Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.</p>

<p>Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.</p>

<p>The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.</p>

<p>LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.</p>

<p>Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]</p>


Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

<p>Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?</p>

<p>Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.</p>

<p>NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.</p>

<p>“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.</p>

<p>"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.</p>

<p>Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.</p>

<p>“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”</p>

<p>Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.</p>

<p>“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”</p>

<p>She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.</p>

<p>“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”</p>


Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

<p>A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325]<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.</p>

<p>“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.”<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity.<br />
&nbsp;&nbsp;<br />
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp;<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516]<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Completion is slated for early 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]</p>


Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

<p>Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.</p>

<p>Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.</p>

<p>The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.</p>

<p>Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" /></p>

<p>The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.</p>

<p>The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.</p>

<p>According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."</p>

<p>"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.</p>

<p>"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.</p>

<p>"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."</p>

<p>The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.</p>

<p>COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.</p>

<p>The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.</p>

<p><img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" /></p>

<p>Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.</p>

<p>Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.</p>

<p>Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.</p>

<p>"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.</p>

<p>"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a></em></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

Property market

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<div>It looks increasingly as though 2016 is going to be a becalmed year for Sydney's property markets.<br><br>Some articles doing the rounds this week suggested that apartment prices had already fallen in Sydney, but as you would expect different market sectors and sub-regions have behaved somewhat differently.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Mainly these declines would relate to new stock or "off-the-plan" or high-rise apartment purchases, some of which in my opinion is quite over-priced and quite risky, and some outer suburban or secondary locations where auction clearance rates have tanked. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Residex released its April market update on Friday which showed that <em>median</em> apartment prices in Sydney had increased by +11.5 per cent over the year to March, to a fresh all-time high of $691,500.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Following a +2.4 per cent increase in March, the median unit price growth has all but overhauled median house price growth in the harbour city, which has slowed to +12.2 per cent over the year to March. <br><br>This need not be such a surprise - at this stage in the cycle the stamp duty on detached housing in desirable locations has become increasingly prohibitive, acting as a drag on price growth.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney's median house price is now $1,042,500 which is +$271,500 higher than when the latest round of doomsday predictions were rolled out at the beginning of 2014. And this median price is also +$381,500 than in the middle of 2012 when some other crash predictions were being bantered around.<br><br>With the additional stamp duty burden ramping up by nearly $18,000 over the past four years, rational buyers will increasingly look towards properties they can add value to, or scale down their entry price accordingly. <br><br>While auction results are still throwing out some enormous results (for example, this <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-terrace-nsw-potts+point-115126003" target="_blank">Potts Point terrace</a> was resold for a thunderous $13 million this week, almost doubling the record price for a Sydney terraced house) it does look as though the wider market away from the inner suburbs has now slowed in accordance with APRA's wishes. </div>
<div>
<br>According to Residex medians, there was a continued steady growth in the year to March for Brisbane houses (+3.5 per cent) and Brisbane units (+4.2 per cent). <br><br>
</div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Economy more upbeat</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There have been quite a few positive signs for the economy of late - an extraordinarily strong NAB business survey saw conditions at their equal highest level in 8 years, and the AIG Performance of Manufacturing Index gauge surging to its highest reading in 12 years. <br><br>Lately there has been a strong bounce in commodity prices, sending some of the oversold major resources companies on a serious bull run.<br><br>The March Labour Force figures showed that the national unemployment rate has kept ticking down to its lowest level in two-and-a-half years, and quite a bit sooner than had been expected. <br><br>More detailed employment figures due out on Thursday will confirm that Sydney's economy is rather enjoying its infrastructure and building boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/18/UE.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/18/UE.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>As for the much-feared "mining cliff", well that  has all but been and gone, meaning that resources construction will no longer be such a significant drag on the economy in about 12 to 18 months time.</div>
<div>
<br>The latest available data only runs to December 2015, but as we are now about three-and-a-half years beyond the peak estimates have shown that some three quarters of the decline may now be in the rear view mirror, while record residential construction activity has helped to offset the decline.<br><br>That said, Western Australia and the Northern Territory still evidently have quite a way to fall back yet.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/18/C1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/18/C1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Good news, and futures markets are now less than convinced of the need for a further interest rate cut in this cycle.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Financial Stability Review (FSR)</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other news the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its April 2016 Financial Stability Review (FSR) on Friday. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The RBA noted that spreads on Australian banks' wholesale funding costs had increased a little over the past six months, partly due to one-off factors related to international regulation. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, spreads have declined a bit of late as the outlook has brightened, and having successfully issued some $50 billion in bonds since the beginning of the year Australian banks are set to comfortably meet their funding requirements through this calendar year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite the moderate increase in spreads, banks' long and short debt pricing spread to swap remains a world away from where it was in, say 2012, let alone from the unholy spike of 2008.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In any event Australian banks are now less exposed to wholesale funding risk because first deposit funding and now equity funding have been stepped up respectively.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has been very little impact on deposit rates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/18/FUNDING.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<img src="/images/2016/04/18/FUNDING.jpg" alt=""><br><br>
</div>
<div>Non-performing asset ratios on domestic books are generally speaking in pretty good nick, having continued to improve in the latter half of 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/18/FSR1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/18/FSR1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>For the majors non-performing loans are also in very good shape, although the resources regions and mining towns of Western Australia and Queensland are expected to cop some default action, an unfortunate occurrence which has been known about for some time. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/18/FSR2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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</div>
<div>The RBA highlighted the potential for apartment oversupply and possible related settlement risks, while noting that there has been little evidence of the latter to date, and also little evidence of any meaningful slowdown in demand from China. <br><br>Despite the high levels of apartment construction, I'm coming around the view that with more than half of the dwelling stock effectively financed by offshore investors - overwhelmingly from China - such a ratio of apartments may never make it to the rental market that the actual impact on supply could yet prove to be a fizzer. <br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">No stress?</span></strong><br><br>The RBA remains relatively unperturbed with household debt levels, for although gross household debt has increased so too have aggregated mortgage buffers (balances held in offsets and redraw facilities), up to an enormous 17 per cent of outstanding loan balances - that's the equivalent of more than 2.5 years of mortgage repayments at current interest rate levels.<br><br>The RBA reiterated that most household debt is held by the households that can afford to service it, with half of household debt held by the top quintile of income earners. Meanwhile, indicators of stress on overall loan portfolios remain low. <br><br>However, this review did acknowledge that the households without mortgage buffers are often those in the lower income brackets, which may present a market risk in time. <br><br>As such, housing markets in lower socio-demographic areas may be at greater risk if either interest rates or unemployment rates rise. <br><br>This certainly rings true in the case of Sydney where house prices in the west and at the city fringe have recorded particularly punchy price growth since 2012 - a dynamic which tends to mask any underlying household mortgage stress - but with auction results pointing to ongoing weakness, the fundamentals out west all look rather fragile.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

The becalmed market: Pete Wargent

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<div dir="ltr"> </div>
<div>
<p>After falling away in March, both new listings and the total volume of homes available for sale across Australia have risen in April.</p>
<p>Over the 28 days ending 1 May 2016, the total number of homes available for sale across the nation rose to 241,633, compared to 235,897 over the 28 day period ending 3 April 2016. However, relative to last year, the total volume of stock listed for sale is -1.7 percent lower, despite the number of newly listed properties being 2.5 percent higher than one year ago.</p>
<p>Of the total stock available for sale, 44.4 percent of properties are located within a capital city, where over the 28 days ending 1 May, 107,199 residential properties were available for sale.</p>
<p>Over the same period, 27,073 new listings were added to the market, accounting for almost 62 percent of new listings added nationally. While the total available stock nationally is lower than it was at the same time last year, capital city listing volumes are 5.1 percent higher (while new listings remain comparable to what was seen one year ago, up just 0.9 percent) suggesting a slower rate of absorption is leading to an increase in stock on market.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/09/201605-Table.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/09/201605-Table.png" alt=""></p>
<p>In terms of total stock available for sale, across the individual capital cities, Sydney (+22.0 percent), Brisbane (+3.4 percent), Adelaide (+4.7 percent), Perth (+8.6 percent) and Darwin (+12.2 percent) all have more stock available for sale relative to one year ago, while each of the other cities has less stock available for sale.</p>
<p>While Sydney’s listed stock seems much higher than it was one year ago, if we take a look at the same period in 2014, current listings are just 2.7 percent higher. 2015 was a strong year for the Sydney housing market, with annual home value growth peaking at 18.4 percent in July and strong levels of vendor confidence with market metrics such as low levels of vendor discounting, fast selling times, high auction clearance rates and quick stock absorption further demonstrates the strength across the Sydney property market.</p>
<p>Despite current listings being much higher than they were last year, relative to historic levels across the city, total listings in Sydney remain much lower.</p>
<p>To put this into perspective, current listings across the city are -12.5 percent below what they were in 2010, -22.2 percent lower than 2011, and -34.7 per cent lower than 2012. On the other hand, in Darwin and to a lesser extent, Perth, total listings have been trending upwards for some time now, while new listings remain relatively flat.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/09/201605-capital-city.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/09/201605-capital-city.png" alt=""></p>
<p>When the regional markets in each state and territory are factored in, Queensland (0.4 per cent), South Australia (7.8 per cent), Western Australia (6.9 per cent) and the Northern Territory (12.8 per cent) are all seeing higher stock volumes than one year ago, while New South Wales (-7.6 per cent), Victoria (-2.9 per cent), Tasmania (-21.0 per cent) and the Australian Capital Territory (-17.4 per cent), all have less residential properties available for sale relative to one year ago.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/09/201605-national.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/09/201605-national.png" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
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Residential listings trend higher in April: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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<p><span>Housing markets show different performances geographically as well as across product types and pricing points.  </span></p>
<p><span>Across the capital cities, a useful measure of capital gain across broad price points is our stratified hedonic index.  </span></p>
<p><span>The CoreLogic RP Data Stratified Hedonic Index looks at the movement in home values across three broad value based segments of the housing market.  The three segments are divided across quartiles and provide an insight about capital gains across the most affordable 25% of capital city suburbs, the middle 50% of capital city suburbs and the most expensive 25% of capital city suburbs.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/11/23/Chart-11.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/11/23/Chart-11.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>Over the 12 months to October 2015, dwelling values across the combined capital cities increased by 8.2% across the most affordable suburbs, 9.6% across the middle priced suburbs and 11.4% over the most expensive suburbs.  The trends are somewhat different over the past three months with the most affordable suburbs recording the strongest value rises.  </span></p>
<p><span>Over the period, the most affordable suburbs have seen values increased by 1.5% compared to 1.2% growth across the middle market and a 1.3% increase in values across the most expensive suburbs.  Over the current growth phase, which broadly commenced in June of 2012, combined capital city home values have increased by 26.5% across the most affordable quarter of capital city suburbs, by 32.4% across the ‘middle’ of the market and by 33.7% across the most expensive quarter of suburbs.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/11/23/Chart-21.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/11/23/Chart-21.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Looking at the data across the five largest capital cities shows some quite different results.  Across the most affordable capital city suburbs, home value changes over the past year have been recorded at +14.3% in Sydney, +8.8% in Melbourne, +3.1% in Brisbane, +3.4% in Adelaide and -1.4% in Perth.</p>
<p>  Looking at the middle 50% of suburbs the value changes over the past year have been recorded at: +14.8% in Sydney, +11.2% in Melbourne, +4.6% in Brisbane, +2.6% in Adelaide and -2.9% in Perth.  Finally the most expensive quarter of the market recorded value changes over the past year of +17.1% in Sydney, +14.6% in Melbourne, +3.5% in Brisbane, +1.5% in Adelaide and -4.3% in Perth. </p>
<p>Based on these results you can see that it has been the most expensive suburbs recording the greatest value rises in Sydney and Melbourne with the most affordable suburbs recording the slowest rate of growth.  In Brisbane the middle market is seeing the greatest rise in values while the most affordable suburbs are seeing the slowest rate of growth. In Adelaide and Perth the best performed segment is the most affordable end of the market with the most expensive suburbs the weakest. Note that in Perth all three segments analysed have recorded value falls over the past year.</p>
<p>Focussing on quarterly data, the most affordable suburbs have been the strongest for growth in Melbourne, Adelaide in Perth. The middle market has recorded the strongest value growth over the quarter in Brisbane while in Sydney the most expensive suburbs have recorded the highest rate of value growth.</p>
<p>The differing performance of the segments provides a good insight into the current market dynamics as to where housing demand is strongest.  In Sydney and Melbourne it is typically higher priced stock, in Brisbane it is the middle market and in Adelaide and Perth demand is largely for more affordable housing stock. </p>
<p>As the rate of growth slows in Sydney and Melbourne we are likely to see the profile of where demand is strongest also change in those cities.  Furthermore, if Sydney and Melbourne buyers look to purchase in other cities they may be able to afford more expensive stock than the local buyers in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.  As a result we may see higher levels of value growth across the higher priced market segments.</p>
<p><span><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></span></p>
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Different magnitudes of market value changes: Cameron Kusher

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<div>Residential land values soared by more than $1 trillion dollars in Australia over the three years to June, and by more than half a trillion dollars (+15%) in the last year alone. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Since 1989 the total value of land in Australia has surged by well over $4 trillion, with residential use accounting for nearly $3.5 trillion or more than 85 per cent of the increase.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/24/Land.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/24/Land.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><span>Since dwelling prices over the long run are ultimately a derivative of the land value which sits underneath, I always recommend capital city properties as those with the greatest potential for price growth.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Particularly I look at those located within easy commuting distance of the Central Business District and with a high percentage land value content, which typically means steering well clear of high rise tower blocks.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Since 2012, the biggest paper gains for property speculators have been seen in Sydney, with the total value of residential land in New South Wales spiralling by more than 53% in just three financial years. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Victoria has also seen land values increase by 35% over the same time period, with broadly similar gains in land values across the next three most populous states in the 20 -22% range.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Of course, population growth accounts for some of the increase in residential land values, and so too does the prosperity of the local economy, the lower cost of capital, and the relative scarcity or availability of the land in question. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Residential land values soar: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>As the Sydney real estate markets start drawing the curtains on what has been a highly entertaining 2015 year it’s interesting to note some are framing 2016 as the recession year. </span></p>
<p><span>However before we start nailing that coffin we need to look at what possibly may cause a recession and then look for what may avert a recession. Naturally there are many that opt for the let’s wait and see option although I’m of the opinion that we won’t see a technical recession.</span></p>
<p><span>Yes in some areas property prices are falling and in many other areas property prices are still performing well. Just last week we set (nearly doubled) the all-time record price for a <span>Cammeray waterfront</span>.  This week a developer released Chatswood Place, a $300 million boutique style development, and in just three hours set a new suburb record as well as securing $160 million in off the plan sales. This is the very same investment market which many were believing was well and truly finished.</span></p>
<p><span>Last week the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that business investment spending in the September quarter had fallen 9.2 %. This quarterly result was the worst in the 28 year history of the survey of business investment. The ABS also released the GDP growth which identified growth of 0.9 % thanks to the highest exports in 15 years, an increase in consumer spending and of course the much publicised housing boom more particularly in apartment construction.</span></p>
<p><span>We also need to note that Treasury has cut the nation’s potential economic growth rate to 2.75 % down from 3.25 %. This follows three consecutive years of below – trend economic growth where the elephant in the room is the decline in mining.</span></p>
<p><span>Now for that beaming light at the end of this tunnel of misery – enter the very cashed – up NSW government. Unlike the vast majority of state and territory governments NSW has an overflow of coin and it’s all going into the biggest infrastructure spend in the state’s history. Over the next four years the NSW government has allocated a staggering $70 billion infrastructure spend which is unprecedented. This in itself will singularly underpin the Sydney housing market given nothing stimulates the markets and consumer confidence like a massive infrastructure spend.</span></p>
<p><span>The breakdown is $38 billion to be spent on new transport projects which will also include the second harbour tunnel, North West rail link, South East Light rail, Sydney CBD and WestConnex. The Transgrid lease which brought in a record $10,258 billion is still to be allocated although it has been confirmed that these monies will also be directed into new infrastructure projects.</span></p>
<p><span>Following the federal government crackdown on illegal foreign real estate acquisitions in Australia the Significant and Premium Investor Visas have been running at full – speed. It will be very interesting to see the next set of figures and whether there has been a significant spike in applications since the crackdown. The low Australian dollar is also enticing many offshore purchasers and expats and this is now a very strong emerging market within the Sydney real estate markets.</span></p>
<p><span>So when one takes the time to actually look at what is going on I find myself (as do many others) not too worried about this so called recession. The last recession was 25 years ago and they aren’t very nice but when you have a state government pouring $70 billion into the NSW economy it would appear that NSW has more Zoom than Gloom. </span></p>
<p><span>To further highlight this the NSW government just appointed Lucy Turnbull (the PM’s wife) as chair of the NSW government’s newly created Greater Sydney Commission. The sole purpose of the Greater Sydney Commission is to stop the infighting at local councils and to speed up developments across the city although I still see councils incompetency as an on – going hurdle.  I’m reliably informed that the premier will hand his greater Sydney Commission special powers and the councils will not like what’s in-store.</span></p>
<p><span>Of course not everybody will be convinced but then again, that all adds to the theatre of debate. When the 2016 property markets kick off I’m of the view that the areas within a 15 kilometre radius of the CBD will do very well. But expect more than a few to tell a different tale.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>MOSMAN – 2088</strong></span></p>
<p><span>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 103</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of houses on the market last week – 65</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of houses on the market this week – 55</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 66</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 60</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 51</span></p>
<p><span><strong>CREMORNE – 2090</strong></span></p>
<p><span>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 13</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of houses on the market last week – 15</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of houses on the market this week – 11</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 25</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 18</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 17</span></p>
<p><span><strong>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</strong></span></p>
<p><span>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 10</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of houses on the market last week – 8</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of houses on the market this week – 8</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 42</span></p>
<p><span>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 33</span></p>
<p><span>*Number of apartments on the market this week – 30</span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000. </em></p>
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Some framing 2016 as the recession year: Robert Simeon

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<p>Looking into the mainstream-media property reports with respect to rental and vacancy rates; one questions how the data is obtained.</p>
<p>I have from time to time, questioned my brew of coffee but I can do so as I am personally tasting it.</p>
<p>The data about property being provided on the other hand is not as personal to the analysts nor the economists offering their property-charts to the general public.</p>
<p>Most, if not all their data comes from the main "property portals" and are highly reliant on real estate agent's, property manager's (PM) accuracy and detail of what is truly available.</p>
<p><em>"Trust me I'm a real estate agent, comes to mind..." </em>However, in the case of listing rental-properties, it is prudent not to list all the units in the block: time, resources and the perception to the market are factors to be considered.</p>
<p><strong>The proof is in the pudding</strong></p>
<p>They say the proof is in the pudding. Well, the same may be said for the data and the reports.</p>
<p>The fact is, the data obtained by analysts comes from two main sources, three at best. These sources are; RPData, Domain website and the REA website. Now, how accurate is this data? <em>No where near the truth...</em></p>
<p><em>So why is this data flawed? </em></p>
<p>Put simply, the data is flawed due to a basic anomaly; real estate agents “property managers” DO NOT place/advertise entire blocks of units on the property portals. At best case, the PM will advertise a mix of units: a one bedroom, a two bedroom and a three bedroom apartment.perhaps even one or two more; if they have a different floor plan.</p>
<p>I have had a recent look at the property portals and across three buildings I know off in Parramatta alone, there are 12 adds which advertise the units available in these blocks. However, across these three high rise blocks, there are approximately 700 apartments.</p>
<p>As a conservative guesstimate, coupled with the conversations I have had with the marketing companies that sold these units; it can be estimated that 80% have been sold to investors.</p>
<p>For now, also consider; how many apartment blocks are being completed and are nearing completion across Sydney? Hmmm a lot, you say? Now add a few more to what you believe. </p>
<p><em>You guessed it; a lot available and soon to be available for rent...</em></p>
<p><strong>You be the judge</strong></p>
<p>For the very reasons I have written about in the past and now; I do not recommend for Investors to buy into the overheated property market of Sydney.</p>
<p>Of late, I have ventured out of Sydney to secure property for our clients. Property with steady rental returns and long term tenancies. More to the point, we have steered away from newly built property with unsustainable rental returns.</p>
<p><strong>The real question</strong></p>
<p><em>Is there really a shortage of rental property in Sydney? </em>I say NO.</p>
<p>Most definitely not. Now you may dispute this and show me report after report. Again and again I will walk you though what is truly happening on the ground. Take you to, building after building that PM's only list 3-4 properties on the property portals and where there are over 120 units available in the recently built block.</p>
<p>Show me the real data...</p>
<p><em><span>EDWIN ALMEIDA</span> is licensee in charge of <a href="https://www.just-think.com.au/" target="_blank">Just Think Real Estate</a>.<a href="https://www.just-thin.com.au/"><br></a></em></p>
<p><em>He is also the creator of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/JustThinkProperty" target="_blank">Oz Real Estate.TV</a> and a presenter for <a href="https://propertyinvestingvault.com/" target="_blank">propertyinvestingvault.com</a>.</em></p>
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Show me the data: Edwin Almeida

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<p><span>Mike Tyson is quoted as saying, "everyone has a game-plan until you get punched in the face”.</span></p>
<p><span>So, how do we take this true to life and memorable analogy and personalize it to our business? I spilled my coffee due to convulsive laughter, when I first heard this.</span></p>
<p><span>Like many sides of our personal makeup we, as human beings, personalize or internalize and emotionally invest in what we create and believe in.</span></p>
<p><span>In this particular post, I will look at how we can recession proof “protect” our brand as we move into 2016 - a year with many unknowns when it comes to the survival of real estate agents and their offices, independent or mainstream.</span></p>
<p><span>I'm talking about building a defensive wall that won’t allow adversaries an inch of space but don’t forget, your inner voice can also work against you.</span></p>
<p><span> Yes, you too can punch yourself in the nose and sabotage your business.</span></p>
<p><span>I’m no expert, to say the least; so I called on the experience and expertise of my good friend and brand mentor, Anthony Carroll, from Yellowsneakers to help explore the idea of recession proofing my brand.</span></p>
<p><span>Anthony best explains the relevance and relationship between recession proofing our business and branding with a simple question:</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span>How relevant is your brand when it comes to your purpose and your customers needs? All the elements of your brand should radiate out from your “purpose”.</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span>Unravelling purpose is not just about having an idea, it is about solving a problem and engaging an audience.</span></p>
<p><span>A purpose is a solution to a problem that your target audience can't solve on their own. Your solution should therefore fit the problem but also be delivered in a way that is unique and different to what your competitors offer.</span></p>
<p><span>Staying true to your purpose is KEY to surviving and recession proofing your business.</span></p>
<p><span>The basic principles, on how we build a strong defensive wall, is sometimes forgotten. Most brands with no essence or belief, in other words purpose, will fail. Fail to be noticed and fail to engage the audience it needs to survive.</span></p>
<p><span> A strong brand on the other hand, can weather many storms:</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span>Product failure</span></li>
<li><span>PR fallouts</span></li>
<li><span>Corporate scandal</span></li>
<li><span>Dips in market share</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span>Therefore, the strength of your brand can be gaged by your commitment to its purpose. The purpose that underlines your daily and constant decision making and reason to stay motivated and focused.</span></p>
<p><span>A good example of a brand weathering a PR fallout is the LiveStrong brand started by Lance Armstrong.</span></p>
<p><span>Because of its strong underlying purpose: Lifestyle choices, healthier eating and so on, the brand continues flourish despite the Tour-de-France doping scandal that Lance Armstrong was at the centre of.</span></p>
<p><span>Lance had to step down from the organization he founded and distance himself completely. However, as a result the brand remains relevant in the eyes of its audience.</span></p>
<p><span>People will forgive human frailty and it’s been shown that the more human or personable the brand is, the more supportive people become of the brand.</span></p>
<p><span>More recently, we can look at the VW emissions scandal. Sales for VW and Audi have actually increased. While it might be too early for sales to be affect, yet it will be interesting to see how VW survives this scandal.</span></p>
<p><span>So what happens when we have a kick-ass brand? More people engage with the brand as soon as they understand its core purpose.</span></p>
<p><span>Reflecting on the industry I’m presently engaged in and as I re-read this post, I find myself asking the following questions:</span></p>
<ol>
<li><span>Will the main real estate brands remain true to the nature, the purpose of their founders? or Will they continue to lose the respect of both employees and clients?</span></li>
<li><span>Will the New Year 2016, usher in new real estate brands created by disillusioned employees of some of the more established brands?</span></li>
</ol>
<p><span>No matter what industry you are in and particularly if you are about to launch with a new brand; I do hope these thoughts have been of help.</span></p>
<p><span>I leave you with this thought: never underestimate small beginnings, remain true to your purpose and your brand will make the impact you aimed for.</span></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
<p><em><span>EDWIN ALMEIDA</span> is licensee in charge of <a href="https://www.just-think.com.au/" target="_blank">Just Think Real Estate</a>.<a href="https://www.just-thin.com.au/"><br></a></em></p>
<p><em>He is also the creator of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/JustThinkProperty" target="_blank">Oz Real Estate.TV</a> and a presenter for <a href="https://propertyinvestingvault.com/" target="_blank">propertyinvestingvault.com</a>.</em></p>
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Recession proof your real estate business: Edwin Almeida

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<div>As promised, a quick look around the traps at where APRA's cooling measures have slowed investor lending the hardest, and where some or all of the hot air is coming out of the investor market.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>New South Wales saw $5.6 billion of investor loans in September 2015, taking activity back down to the breached for the first time in December 2014 - though as I analysed here previously, owner-occupier lending has (apparently) soared to unprecedented heights in recent months, more than compensating for the decline.<br><br><span><span>Macroprudential measures undertaken to cool housing markets will inevitably have some unintended consequences, one of which may be that lenders demanding high returns on target potential borrowers with existing equity, which in a curiously reflexive manner might temporarily skew lending towards markets which have already outperformed through the cycle (i.e. Sydney).</span></span><br><span><span><br></span></span><span><span>That's one to watch for next year, but for now total lending for NSW housing of more than $14 billion in September was the biggest month on record, even if the numbers were somewhat fishy.</span></span>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/11/17/A1-1.jpg" target="_blank"><span><span>Click to enlarge</span></span></a></div>
<div><span><span><img src="/images/2015/11/17/A1-1.jpg" alt=""></span></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's a near-identical story in Victoria, with a notable decline in investor lending, but a corresponding leap in owner-occupier lending.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/17/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/17/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>In Queensland the decline in investor lending has been relatively marked from $2.0 billion in March, although there was a slight rebound in September to $1.67 billion. A spirited increase in owner-occupier lending means that total lending has increased moderately over the past year.</span><br><br><span>Queensland's property markets are something of a multi-speed affair, with certain areas of SEQ - such as some sub sub-regions within Brisbane and the Gold Coast - faring relatively well, but many regional markets decidedly in the doldrums. </span>
</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/11/17/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/17/A3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Not much in the way of good news to report for Western Australia, with investor lending tailing off sharply in recent months from $1.26 billion in December 2014 to just $0.82 billion in September 2015.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/17/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/17/A4.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>It hasn't been a great time for the South Australian economy in recent years, with the trend unemployment rate of 7.7% way above the national average of 6.1%, while employment growth has been non-existent for years now.<br><br>Fortunes for the state waned further this week when it was finally confirmed that Arrium will cut 250 jobs from its Whyalla steelworks, with further cuts expected from Alinta.</div>
<div>
<br>Despite the ongoing labour market shock, South Australia is home to a number of relatively affordable property markets after so many years of lacklustre growth.<br><br>As such South Australia is also the one state where investor lending is actually in an uptrend on a 12mMA basis, with the $469 million in investor lending in September representing a solid increase on the prior year equivalent figure of $390 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/17/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/17/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>The outlook has been looking up for the economy and labour market of Tasmania lately, but a lack of existing equity in the market following no real dwelling price growth for close to a decade appears to have knocked the investor market for six, with volumes declining from a record high $86 million in June to only $60 million in September.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/17/A6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/17/A6.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>The Australian Capital Territory (ACT) continues to meander along, with investor lending pulling back since June here too, declining from a record spike of $224 million to $142 billion.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/17/A7.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/17/A7.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Finally, there are no positives at all to draw from this data series for the Northern Territory, where investor lending has all but collapsed over the past year from $122 million to $75 million.</span><br><br><span>With elevated vacancy rates and nose-diving rents, Darwin and other parts of the Top End are heading for a potentially sharp and long overdue property market correction.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/17/A8.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/17/A8.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Overall, it has become clear that APRA's cooling measures have worked quickly and effectively, knocking out a good deal of riskier investor lending right across the board.</span><br><br><span>The property markets story for 2016 will largely be of to what extent lenders can push up the market share of owner-occupier loans in order to compensate for the evident decline in investor volumes.</span>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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APRA's traps and investor loans: Pete Wargent

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<p>Adelaide often flies under the radar for investors. It’s perhaps the most under-rated among the capital cities, despite having delivered good growth rates in the past and currently it leads the nation on some measures, including the rise in sales activity.</p>
<p>Across the Adelaide metro area, the standouts are middle-market precincts like the City of Charles Sturt. This LGA, immediately north and north-west of the Adelaide CBD, is at the forefront of Adelaide’s efforts to evolve its economy, as manufacturing industries fade.</p>
<p>Topping the list of Adelaide projects is the $2 billion Royal Adelaide Hospital, due for completion in late 2016. There is also a serious focus on improved transport infrastructure, including road and rail, which will better connect industrial precincts and outer suburbs with the CBD, the Port of Adelaide and Adelaide Airport.</p>
<p>The City of Charles Sturt attracts people because it’s close to the beaches, the CBD, the airport and regional shopping facilities. Henley Beach is one of Adelaide’s most popular, with a noted restaurant precinct with boutique shopping. </p>
<p>The LGA has long been considered the sporting and entertainment hub of Adelaide, with national basketball, soccer and football stadiums, three privately-owned golf courses, an international rowing course, the River Torrens Linear Park, the Adelaide Entertainment Centre, the coast and numerous highly-regarded local sporting venues.</p>
<p>The City is well-catered-for in terms of schools and medical services. Health is the largest employer in South Australia and has replaced manufacturing as the largest employer in Charles Sturt, which has two major hospitals: the Queen Elizabeth Hospital (the Western Region’s primary health care provider) and Western Hospital at Henley Beach.</p>
<p>Charles Sturt is a solid middle-market area that offers affordable homes, low vacancies and a strong construction pipeline. </p>
<p>The LGA has bayside suburbs west of the Adelaide CBD, including rising markets such as Henley Beach (median house price $790,000) and Henley Beach South ($763,000), as well as some more affordable locations such as Findon ($473,000), Kidman Park ($570,000), Semaphore Park ($467,000) and Seaton ($460,000).</p>
<p>Long-term growth rates (average annual growth in median prices over 10 years) are generally 5–6% per year. Henley Beach, Henley Beach South and Woodville Park are slightly higher at 7 percent per year (which means values doubling in 10 years).</p>
<p>Most of properties in the city are stand-alone houses (73 percent), while 28 percent are units, according to the 2011 Census. However, there has been a marked increase in the number of units being built in the last three years.</p>
<p>Vacancies across Charles Sturt are generally low, with many postcodes having vacancy rates below 2 percent. Only postcodes 5020 and 5021 (which includes West Lakes and West Lakes Shore) have vacancies outside the general comfort zone.</p>
<p>Much is happening in Adelaide generally and the City of Charles Sturt specifically, and this is partly attributed to the State Government’s <em>30-Year Plan for Greater Adelaide.</em></p>
<p>Using the plan as a guide, Renewal SA is initiating urban renewal developments, led by four major projects valued at over $2 billion. The largest project will see the population of the small inner suburb of Bowden grow from a few hundred residents to 3,500 over the next decade. This area is being revitalised with cafés, restaurants, shops, offices and parks.</p>
<p>The old AAMI Stadium (also known as Football Park) at West Lakes is to be redeveloped. In 2014, the South Australia National Football League sold AAMI Stadium to developers Commercial and General for $71 million. Commercial &amp; General has plans to develop the site into residential, commercial and community land uses. It is estimated 1,600 homes will eventually occupy the site. </p>
<p>Another Renewal SA project will see land adjacent to the Woodville Railway Station transformed with a mix of medium-density to high-rise dwellings.</p>
<p class="Body"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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Adelaide the most under-rated among the capital cities: Terry Ryder

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<p>It may be the biggest mistake property investors make: once they have bought something, they stop researching.</p>
<p>There’s a common mentality among real estate consumers that the need to stay informed disappears once you’ve fulfilled your buying criteria.</p>
<p>Prior to purchase, some (not all) will spend some time and/or money on research and advice. But they won’t make the same effort, or any effort, to stay informed beyond acquisition. </p>
<p>I recently hosted a webinar in which Melbourne buyers’ agent and author Miriam Sandkuhler was the guest presenter. One of the key points she impressed upon her audience was the importance of a regular review of your property portfolio and your overall goals and strategies.</p>
<p>Most Australians don’t do that. Set and forget seems to be the overriding philosophy. And many with that approach get caught in bad situations.</p>
<p>Hotspotting receives a lot of distress calls from investors who bought in locations where property values have fallen subsequently.</p>
<p>Sometimes they’ve bought in locations that were never going to perform. But often they’ve bought in an area that delivers growth initially, until something fundamental changes. That causes a downturn in the market – but investor owners often find out too late.</p>
<p>Queensland boom-bust industrial city Gladstone provides a case study. Five or six years ago, this looked like a good place to invest, with three gas projects worth a combined $60 billion (bringing tens of thousands of jobs) poised to start construction. And, for a couple of years, that promise was borne out by results. Rents and prices rose strongly.</p>
<p>But then big changes occurred in that market. One was that developers had flocked in large numbers to that market and too much new product was being built. The problem was exacerbated by the second fundamental shift, which was the decision by the resources companies to use primarily FIFO workforces with personnel staying in temporary accommodation camps, rather than buying or renting local dwellings.</p>
<p>We wrote extensively about the shift in that market and the likely consequences. The message was: stay out of that market – or, if you already own there, now might be a good time to sell before the market drops.</p>
<p>But many of those who had already bought in Gladstone had tuned out. They no longer had their finger on the pulse. By the time many owners realised the tide had turned against them, it was too late to sell without taking a loss.</p>
<p>Anyone who bought in coal-mining town Moranbah in the early part of the century would have enjoyed a decade of the most spectacular capital growth in Australian history. If they’d sold at any point before 2013, they would have made lots of money.</p>
<p>Then the market turned for reasons that are similar to those for Gladstone, with the added element of the big downturn in coal prices. What followed by the polar opposite of the previous spectacular growth. </p>
<p>Similar, though less dramatic, scenarios are being played out regularly in markets around Australia. Two or three years ago the middle-market suburbs on Brisbane’s northside were market leaders for sales activity and price growth. Small to medium sized developers saw an opportunity and suddenly these areas are awash with development of new units and townhouses. Vacancies have risen to unacceptable levels in some suburbs. </p>
<p>If you bought something in that precinct two years ago and then focused on other things, you’re probably not aware of the change in the market.</p>
<p>The message again and again is: you can’t stop the research process just because you’ve filled your current buying criteria. You need to stay up to date. And you need to conduct that regular review of your investment situation suggested by Miriam Sandkuhler.</p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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