<p>Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.</p>

<p>The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.</p>

<p>One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.</p>

<p>"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.</p>

<p>"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]</p>

<p>The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.</p>

<p>PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.</p>

<p>"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]</p>

<p>Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.</p>

<p>Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.</p>

<p>The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.</p>

<p>"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.</p>

<p>"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]</p>

<p>Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.</p>

<p>Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]</p>


Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

<p>Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.</p>

<p>The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]</p>

<p>“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.</p>

<p>The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]</p>

<p>“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.</p>

<p>“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]</p>

<p>Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.</p>

<p>Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.</p>

<p>The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.</p>

<p>LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.</p>

<p>Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]</p>


Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

<p>Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?</p>

<p>Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.</p>

<p>NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.</p>

<p>“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.</p>

<p>"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.</p>

<p>Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.</p>

<p>“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”</p>

<p>Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.</p>

<p>“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”</p>

<p>She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.</p>

<p>“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”</p>


Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

<p>A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325]<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.</p>

<p>“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.”<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity.<br />
&nbsp;&nbsp;<br />
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp;<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516]<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Completion is slated for early 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]</p>


Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

<p>Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.</p>

<p>Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.</p>

<p>The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.</p>

<p>Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" /></p>

<p>The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.</p>

<p>The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.</p>

<p>According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."</p>

<p>"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.</p>

<p>"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.</p>

<p>"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."</p>

<p>The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.</p>

<p>COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.</p>

<p>The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.</p>

<p><img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" /></p>

<p>Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.</p>

<p>Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.</p>

<p>Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.</p>

<p>"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.</p>

<p>"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a></em></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

Property market

<html><body>
<p class="Body">It’s a marvel that Australia has any regional cities left.</p>
<p class="Body">Every time there’s a major (and sometimes relatively minor) business reversal, media declares the death of the local economy and often the collapse the local property market.</p>
<p class="Body">Legendary author Mark Twain could have been speaking for Newcastle, Wollongong, Geelong and many other regional cities when he said that “the reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated”.</p>
<p class="Body">The latest Australian regional city to inspire a premature obituary is Townsville in the wake of the decision by political and business buffoon Clive Palmer to shed 237 jobs at his Queensland Nickel refinery.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">As has become common in the wake of such events, the media coverage has been a tad over the top since the announcement. I’ve seen reports predicting devastation of the local economy. One suggested Townsville would become “a ghost town”.</p>
<p class="Body">Admittedly some of the dire forecasts have been sourced from sacked workers who were understandably emotional.</p>
<p class="Body">But beyond the unfortunate impacts on the affected families, the downsizing of the Queensland Nickel business is not a catastrophe for Townsville.</p>
<p class="Body">The northern Queensland city is one of Australia’s strongest regional economies. It has wonderful diversity, with a broad range of strong industry sectors providing employment and economic activity.</p>
<p class="Body">It has a major (and expanding) military presence, a massive government sector, a significant education industry, a busy tourism industry and various activities related to the resources sector, among others.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">Few Australian regional cities can match it for strength and diversity.</p>
<p class="Body">A couple of years from now the Queensland Nickel kerfuffle will be seen as a minor blip in the economic life of this very strong city.</p>
<p class="Body">Townsville is not the first regional economy to be declared terminal and it won’t be the last.</p>
<p class="Body">Last rites have been administered in recent years to both Wollongong and Geelong, which nevertheless remain very much alive and kicking.</p>
<p class="Body">Wollongong was proclaimed an impending basket case when Bluescope Steel announced some major downsizing in 2011. Media went overboard. I recall one headline predicting that property values would fall 50%.</p>
<p class="Body">But something quite different occurred. The Wollongong property market has recorded strong price growth in the years since, partly because it caught the wave from Sydney and partly because of positive events in the local economy.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">What the doomsayers overlooked when they over-reacted to the Bluescope Steel job cuts is that there are a lot of  other things happening in Wollongong besides the smokestack industries. Like many other regional cities, Wollongong has been busily reinventing itself and these days has strong industry sectors in education, IT and tourism, among others.</p>
<p class="Body">The gradual decline in employment at the steelworks has been going on since the 1970s. Back then, Bluescope Steel employed 27,000 people. Today it provides jobs to only 10% of that number. In the meantime, Wollongong has moved on and created new modern industries to sustain itself.</p>
<p class="Body">It’s doing just fine.</p>
<p class="Body">So is Geelong, although it should have shuffled off this mortal coil before now, in the wake of bad news about the Ford car plant and one or two other old-style industries.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">But, like Wollongong, Geelong isn’t a blue collar factory town any more. Its biggest employment sectors are eduction and health. The city is thriving as an affordable lifestyle alternative to Melbourne, to which it is now better connected since the completion of the $5 billion Regional Rail Link.</p>
<p class="Body">Major new enterprises are opening up in Geelong. One is the National Disability Insurance Scheme, which is being headquartered in Geelong and is attracting other enterprises that want to be located near it.</p>
<p class="Body">In real estate terms, Geelong is the strongest market in regional Victoria and I don’t expect that to change any time soon.</p>
<p class="Body">There are echoes in this situation also of Newcastle, which was expected to wither and die following the closure of BHP activities in the late 1990s. But check it out today and you’ll find a strong and vibrant city where spending on new infrastructure and property developments totals many billions of dollars.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">And so it will be with Townsville. I’m sure those 237 people who are losing their jobs are suffering (I’ve experienced retrenchment a couple of times in my life and it’s not pleasant) but Townsville as a community and as an economy will not be devastated.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">We’re talking 237 jobs in a city of 200,000 people. Even allowing for flow-on effects, Townsville’s future is as strong as ever.</p>
<p class="Body"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Townsville economy will weather mining downturn: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
<p>A major Sydney newspaper headline proclaimed this week that “Sydney’s property market boom is finally over but house prices remain high”.</p>
<p>Well, exactly. Therein lies the problem.</p>
<p>The article went on to say: “Sydney’s housing boom has finally reached its peak, but don’t expect house prices to start falling any time soon.”</p>
<p>In fact, Hotspotting research indicates the Sydney market reached its peak in the December quarter last year and sales activity has been on a gradual decline since then.</p>
<p>It’s taken the market and the media more than half a year to realise what’s happening.</p>
<p>Analysts, economists, commentators and writers rely on movements in median prices to inform their view of property markets. The problem is that median price data is at least six months behind the game.</p>
<p>The alleged median price for Sydney is still rising, even though the number of sales has been fading, auction clearance rates have been falling and professionals at the coalface have been reporting an easing of competition and evaporation of the boom-time heat.</p>
<p>The market is clearly heading south but, according to the price data much-beloved by almost everyone, it’s still rising.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Market watchers should be observing sales activity. The number of sales happening in markets provide a much more accurate and timely picture of market trends – and they can predict price movements.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>This is the basis of the Price Predictor Index published quarterly by hotspotting.com.au. We chart sales volumes in every suburb and town in the nation.</p>
<p>And this is what it’s telling us:-</p>
<ul>
<li>The number of Sydney growth suburbs is one-third of the number six months ago.</li>
<li>Regional New South Wales is rising and has twice as many growth markets as Sydney does.</li>
<li>Adelaide and Brisbane have both overtaken Sydney and continue to rise (but you won’t know it if you rely on median price data).</li>
<li>Melbourne has faded a little but remains more buoyant than Sydney.</li>
<li>Regional Queensland has almost as many growth markets as Brisbane does.</li>
<li>The strongest market region in the nation, now, is South East Queensland, with Brisbane, the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast all busy.</li>
<li>There are also markets in serious decline and they’re all locations that previously rose with the resources boom and were oversupplied by over-zealous developers.</li>
</ul>
<p>The sales volumes data shows that the pecking order in Australian real estate is changing – but it won’t show up in the median price growth figures any time soon.</p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
</body></html>

The Sydney market is clearly heading south: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
<div>A stunning research note from Cameron Kusher of <em>CoreLogic-RP Data</em> which revealed that while median vacant land prices continued to rise very strongly in Australian capital cities over the past year, regional land prices fell by -3.4% to $156,500.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In particular land values in Sydney (+16.6%) and Melbourne (+14.5%) have exploded over the past year.<br><br>
</div>
<div>And while demand for housing is presently low in Western Australia, median land prices in Perth continued to escalate very significantly (+10.3%), which in turn will force up the cost of new housing. Today, Sydney and Perth have the most expensive land prices in Australia. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unlike in the capital cities regional lot sizes have actually expanded by +8.3% over the past year according to Kusher, making the decline in median land prices all the more notable.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Driven by rapid expansion in household debt regional property prices had a relatively strong run in the lead up to the financial crisis, but this trend has evidently now slowed.<br><br>While a 750sqm lot in a capital city 25 years ago would have cost you $50,000 according to Kusher, today it would set you back $417,800...and rising.</div>
<div>
<br>Regional land values are therefore reportedly some 39% cheaper than in the capital cities, the largest such differential in since 1990.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Interestingly over the long haul land prices have appreciated at a very similar percentage annual rate between capital cities and the regions.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This implies in turn that the best performing property types have been those with a high percentage land value.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>More remote properties - where the land component comprises only a small part of the asset value - remain cheap precisely because the value is all in the <em>building, </em>and not the land.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Location, location, location" as the old mantra goes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Why is this happening?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Why are regional prices not keeping pace? And particularly why has this become the case now?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is a complex question, but a major reason for the strength in capital city land values is likely to be the restricted supply of new land made available for development in the congested capital cities where population growth and therefore underlying demand is strong.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Regional population growth has been considerably weaker ex-Queensland, and there is generally speaking more land available for development.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since the financial crisis there has been another key driver for the larger capitals: jobs growth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS released its Detailed Labour Force figures for August 2015 today which underscored some important trends.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Cities creating jobs</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>While regional employment in the two most populous states was growing reasonably robustly until the financial crisis, regional employment growth has now slowed, with the mining capex cliff now adding to the drag in some regions.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Looking below at cumulative employment growth since Febuary 2007, we can see why both Sydney and Melbourne have been labelled by the Reserve Bank as "self-sustaining job magnets", creating +350,000 new jobs apiece.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The combined cities and towns of regional New South Wales has created a fair level of new employment (+100,000), particularly in the Hunter, Newcastle and the Illawarra. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, over the same time period regional Victoria has by comparison created almost no additional employment (+10,000) on a net basis.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator">An unfortunate corrollary of this is while there was always a level of frictional unemployment in the lead up to 2007, there had at times been a job for almost everyone who wanted one.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Sadly this is no longer the case, and regional unemployment in particular has been pulsing higher. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF8.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Employment growth</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Not dissimilarly while Greater Brisbane has now added +23,000 jobs over the year to August 2015, regional Queensland employment has declined by -27,000, though there may be some debate over the "quality" of new jobs created. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">While some revisions have been made to population assumptions relating to Western Australia, total employment in Perth has continued to rise modestly.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Unfortunately total employment in Adelaide has declined over the past <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">five</span></strong> years (-2,700), with more challenges in the pipeline in the manufacturing space and rising unemployment.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Unemployment rates</span></strong><br><br><div>Smoothing the volatile monthly unemployment readings below on a rolling annual basis we can see that Greater Sydney remains the best placed economy, the unusual labour market of Darwin aside.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>New South Wales also has the lowest level of mortgage delinquency rates according the latest figures from Moody's.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Furthermore, unemployment rates are now trending down in Greater Brisbane, Melbourne and Hobart.</div>
<br><span>On the other hand, unemployment is clearly rising in Perth and Adelaide.</span>
</div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF5.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF5.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><span>Adelaide is now recording an unemployment rate reading of 7.9 per cent which is dragging up the 12 month moving average.</span></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF7.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF7.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<div>On the other hand Greater Brisbane has now recorded two surprisingly low readings of just 5.2 per cent over the last three months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Realistically the true unemployment rate in Greater Brisbane is higher than that, but nevertheless this is heartening to see for the Queensland capital. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Regional land prices are falling: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>The ABS will release its Household Finance &amp; Wealth data series for Q2 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I am expecting to see aggregate net Australian household wealth well over +55% higher than its Q3 2009 nadir, which would be representative of a remarkable recovery.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, in the period since 30 June there has been something of a king hit to household balance sheets with the ASX 200 index (XJO) having nosedived below 5,000 after dropping by a further 105.5 points or 2% today.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As recently as April the market had been threatening to surge above 6,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yet as things stand the "XJO 6000" caps have been gently stowed away (back into cold storage with the "FTSE 7000" scarves!) and the bourse is instead shaping to return to the same levels we saw a decade ago.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/24/imageChart.axd.gif" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/24/imageChart.axd.gif" alt=""> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

Expect the ABS to show recovery figures: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>If some people think a declining clearance rate is a solid key performance indicator for our real estate markets they are badly mistaken as research identifies that the markets remain 60 per cent private treaty and 40% public auction.</p>
<p>Clearance rates are in my opinion more a mood indicator as to consumer confidence levels and not much more, although some commentators would have you believing they are the be all and end all.</p>
<p>If we are to better understand the intricate machinations of what is happening in our demographic markets I would like to see the property portals thinking in greater detail. For example, when a property appears on the market there should be two colour codes one for owner occupier sales and the other for investor sales. These are two entirely different market demographics although they today are bundled together despite being two totally different markets.</p>
<p>As I mentioned last week there will be a number of markets to watch in 2016 plus of course tax reform which is now looking much more likely with the changing of prime minister and new ministers running new portfolios. That too means new dialogue where it was quite interesting to listen to Treasurer Scott Morrison who said “the deficit reflects a spending problem, not a revenue problem”. The previous Treasurer Joe Hockey kept telling us Australia has a revenue problem not a spending problem.</p>
<p>You can rule out any changes to negative gearing by Messrs. Turnbull and Morrison whom will be watching what happens with the investor market, especially should the off – the – plan market have a run of defaults which is highly likely. Already the banks are starting to aggressively pull back lending for new construction projects in Sydney and Melbourne as they see some difficult times ahead with sales completions for overseas investors.</p>
<p>This week the Baird Government announced that 35,000 new homes would be made available in Western Sydney which would be expected to sell very quickly to owner occupiers so these developments won’t have any trouble attaining finance from the banks as this is an entirely different market demographic. Sydney urgently needs to address the owner occupier markets and housing affordability although for those watching these markets it’s getting more difficult to understand.</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced this week that Sydney house prices have jumped by 21.5 per cent over the past year. The Sydney House Price Index (HPI) rose 9.8 per cent over the June quarter which just so happens to be the largest single increase since the ABS commenced the series back in 2002. Just imagine the clarity if the ABS could differentiate these increases between owner occupiers and investors when we know that the investors were the ones really driving these gains.</p>
<p>This is further explained by why the banks are cutting back lending on the new residential markets as many believe a large percentage of the foreign buyers who jumped all over the new releases in Sydney and Melbourne are having a change of heart. Such observations then allow intelligent commentaries where investment bank Morgan Stanley declared this week that the housing boom had peaked. What we are seeing at the moment is much tighter lending rules, a very strong likelihood that Sydney now has an oversupply of new apartments and migration rates are slowing.</p>
<p>When this happens we can expect to see the apartment sales slowing considerably and prices starting to significantly ease which is long overdue. The difference that must be noted is this time around prices may ease naturally as against crashing where today we need to remember we are looking at an entirely different market specific.</p>
<p>If the overseas investors withdraw from the new developments then the prices only in those individual developments would be affected. Although we then find ourselves back at mood indicators where consumer confidence would decline significantly which then flows onto property prices.</p>
<p>Having said that the overseas investors have been clearly the most dominant with the off – the – plan sales so there are still a very large number of local investors waiting to absorb whatever re – sales come onto the market. What we don’t know is how sympathetic they will be to the developers pricing where the previous sale price won’t be that relevant. The developers have already pocketed the 10 per cent deposit although depending on the number of defaults the new pricing could be down by 20 per cent plus given the hype is not there anymore.</p>
<p>There are two topics that will be intriguing in 2016 – coincidentally they both start with the letter “p”;  property and of course politics.</p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 60</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 52</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 51</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 41</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 51</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 52</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year –9</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 7</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 5</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 18</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 22</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 21</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 6</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 3</p>
<p>•Number of houses on the market this week – 7</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 35</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 29</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 28</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000. </em></p>
</body></html>

robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Property markets brace for hysteria and usual faux pas: Robert Simeon

<html><body>
<p><span>The biggest challenge facing the Sydney residential property market is successfully calling the market accurately as against some who pluck figures out of the air with astonishing aplomb.</span></p>
<p><span>My preferred guide is the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) capital city indexes for Established Houses which is released on a quarterly basis – it’s all about measuring price movements over time.</span></p>
<p><span>So I struggle when I see BIS Shrapnel noting that Sydney house prices have soared 45% since 2009 although I remain somewhat confused as we need to add further perspective by taking into account that house prices fell approximately 20 to 30% during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). When we average out the fall in prices at say 25% then factor the recent run on the market prices then they have in real terms only climbed 20% which is a different story to the reported 45%.</span></p>
<p><span>Over this same period we have seen the emergence of an entirely new market namely the investment market which has been the stand – out performer, although it has very little to do with the established house prices. I’m sure if one looks hard enough you can find data that identifies Sydney house prices have jumped 45% although I don’t believe this is an accurate assessment – more a market price manipulation.</span></p>
<p><span>If we go back a decade for Sydney house prices we see most interesting market price machinations – from the September quarter 2004 through to June 2006 (eight quarters) the Established Houses in Sydney were in negative growth at around -5% per quarter. From September 2006 until June 2008 Sydney went into positive growth mode although not exceeding +10% growth with a quarter average of around 5% – then the GFC hit. From September 2008 through to June 2009 Sydney was back in negative growth with negative growth quarters of 6 and 7% the highest reported. Then in September 2009 until December 2010 house prices went back into positive growth where in March 2010 price growth peaked at 19%. Then in June 2011 through to June 2012 prices fell back into negative growth although not alarming with five quarters of bouncing from -1% to -3%. Then in September 2012 until June 2015 Sydney has been experiencing its bull run which has now extended to twelve consecutive quarters with the June quarter posting the highest quarterly growth of 21% – the previous high was 17% in September 2014. I might add that the month of September seems to be a catalyst month in property price movements both positive and negative.</span></p>
<p><span>We also need to recognise that in the December quarter of 2008 the Rudd Government moved the off – the – plan sales for new developments from 50% to 100%, so this has been a significant driver in the investor property market. Sydney has added approximately 20,000 new apartment developments which is unprecedented by modern day property data and this has been strongly assisted by the record low cash rate of 2% that will probably go lower in 2016.</span></p>
<p><span>The big question that remains for the best part unanswered is just how many of the new 20,000 apartments will have their purchasers default as APRA has increased the loan value ratios and the much speculated Asian buyer defaults given the massive correction in the Chinese stock market. It’s no secret that many banks and developers have these developments on a red alert for these most obvious reasons.</span></p>
<p><span>Having said that we need to clearly identify that these are investors and should not be compared to the traditional housing market. The off – the – plan prices in Sydney apartment blocks has gone off the Richter scale so if there is a price correction there this would then have minimal effect on the established home prices although it would slow the market down as a result.</span></p>
<p><span>We just need to balance the debate – over the past 44 quarters for the percentage change in median values for established houses in Sydney 17 quarters have been in negative growth and 27 quarters in positive growth. We also need to look at the cash rate which was 3.00% in April 2013 and fell to 2.75% in May 2013 and has been stuck on 2.00% since May 2015.</span></p>
<p><span>The United States has been sitting on their record low cash rate for a decade now so it appears that record low cash rates is the new norm in global economies.</span></p>
<p><span>There is no need to panic about property prices for the established homes although the investor market will make for fascinating viewing over the next few years.</span></p>
<p><span>I also can’t recall ever seeing the established house market with record low numbers of properties on the market either.</span></p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 82</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 48</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 49</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 50</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 60</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 60</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 14</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 7</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 9</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 22</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 23</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 23</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 5</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 9</p>
<p>•Number of houses on the market this week – 9</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 51</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 21</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 23</p>
<p><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000. </em></p>
</body></html>

How to manipulate property market machinations: Robert Simeon

<html><body>
<p class="Body">The overwhelming weight of expert commentary has rubbished Macquarie Bank’s forecast of major price decline in the next 12 months.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">Some media has presented Macquarie’s simplistic analysis, based on Australian as a single property market with a very specific price prediction, as the gospel according to irrefutable economists. But most coverage has been a counter-attack from credible commentators presenting more considered and realistic views of next year’s markets.</p>
<p>Aussie Home Loans chief John Symond said "there's buckley's chance of a price correction." As Property Observer reported on 22 October, Symond told a Sydney investment conference that Sydney's market was nearing its peak, <a href="/news/sydneys-booming-residential-property-market-was-nearing-peak-john-symond">with “steam coming out of the market and sanity coming in”</a>, and predicted a more flat market – but no across-the-board decreases.</p>
<p>And he observed, quite correctly, that there would be differences from one area to the next. "Hot areas will still see a 7-9% gain, in other areas you might see 3-4% and in some other areas a 5% drop," he said. "You have to do your homework."<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">Yes, indeed. That is a far more reasoned assessment of the near future than Macquarie’s prediction of a blanket 7.5% decline, apparently everywhere.</p>
<p class="Body">Louis Christopher of SQM Research has predicted house price growth in 2016 but at a slower pace than recent years. As an experienced analyst, he knows better than to make a generalised forecast that covers the whole nation as a single market. He has different forecasts for each city and includes three different forecast scenarios in each case, dependent on key events including economic growth, interest rates and the value of the Australian dollar.</p>
<p>In the latest edition of <em>Housing Boom and Bust Report</em> from SQM Research, he predicted Sydney prices will rise between 4% and 9% next year. Melbourne is forecast to overtake Sydney and be the best-performing capital city in 2016 with a rise of between 8% and 13%.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Christopher said the market overall is unlikely to see price decline for a number of reasons, including the Australian dollar, which is tipped to stay at current low levels or fall further, providing a buffer to the economy and the housing market.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Raine &amp; Horne executive chairman Angus Raine believes the Macquarie prediction is difficult to substantiate given the current performance of major property markets. He said the level of demand for property and the depth to the market do not indicate a major correction.</p>
<p>Veronica Morgan, the principal of <em>Good Deeds Property Buyers</em> based in Sydney’s inner west, quite rightly criticised the bank for broadcasting the prediction without considering markets on a micro scale.</p>
<p>“It really annoys me when bank PR people get hold of some economic data and suddenly an impending drop in the property market is front-page news,” she said. “Why can I say that this latest prediction will not come true? Because there is really no such thing as an Australian property market. Look at any national property data and you will see that no two capital cities perform in the same way.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>“And then there are regional markets that all have their own cycles to consider. So how can anybody make a claim that the entire country is over-priced or ready for a fall? Even within Sydney there are dozens, probably hundreds, of micro markets."</p>
<p>Business commentator Peter Switzer said the bank forecast "bordered on being stupid", while Andrew Wilson, the senior economist at Domain's Australian Property Monitors, said it was “unbelievably unlikely”.</p>
<p>Wilson noted that, in the past decade, there had not been any national annual drops of more than 5%. “Even in periods where we had prices falling, such as during 2008 when it was the global financial crisis, the national house price fell by just under 4%,” Wilson said.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Stockland chief Mark Steinert expects house prices to continue to rise next year. His forecast is 3% to 5%.</p>
<p>"There has been quite a lot of talk going on for quite a long time now about the imminent downturn in housing, but no one has mentioned that it hasn't actually eventuated," Steinert told a Property Council lunch in Melbourne.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>"The reality is the economy in Australia is growing at a moderate level of around 2.5%. We have a low Australian dollar, continued population growth (albeit at a slower rate) and metro housing markets that are generally under-supplied. These are not the pre-conditions for some sort of general correction in housing."</p>
<p>There have numerous other commentators on the issue and the general theme is that there will be price growth in 2016 - but, in the case of Sydney especially, the rate of growth will be less.</p>
<p class="Body">An alternative view has come from accident-prone Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s chief economist, who is predicting price decline but not until 2017.</p>
<p class="Body">Oliver has probably the worst track record of any economist in predicting real estate events. I could fill several pages with examples, but basically he believes housing is “over-valued” and has been predicting a significant correction for most of the past 10 years.</p>
<p class="Body"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">He clearly is one of those, not unlike another failed forecaster Steve Keen, who believes that if you keep making the same prediction year after year, you’ll eventually get it right.</span></p>
<p class="Body">So Shameless Shane was out there in the media again recently expounding his bubble theories, with claims of over-valuation of housing and predictions that property prices would fall “between 5% and 10%” - which might happen “around 2017”.</p>
<p class="Body"> </p>
<p class="Body"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
</body></html>

Experts rubbish Macquarie Bank's price decline forecast: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
<div><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">It looks as though 2016 is shaping up to be a year within which the residential construction boom, which has mostly served the demands of foreign investors, begins to tail off.</span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>We should never read too much into the results of one month, of course, but reflecting trends that have already been reported by Housing Industry Association (HIA) finance for the purchase of new dwellings fell by more than 15 percent in February.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/13/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/13/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Although it is not yet much reflected in the rolling annual data below, finance for the construction of new dwellings also ticked back by -1.9 per cent in February.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It may or may not be too early to call the peak on finance for dwelling construction after a very solid run through this cycle, but market releases suggest that building approvals are now on a downslope, and construction will probably follow suit in time too.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/13/A11.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><img src="/images/2016/04/13/A11.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Market shifting away from investors</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Figures showed investor lending steadying at around a seasonally adjusted $11.9 billion, which is still a historically high figure, but some way down from the August 2015 peak.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A quick glance at the chart for loans outstanding shows how banks and lenders have shifted their focus in favour of home loans, a direct response to APRA's regulatory intervention.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/13/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/13/A6.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<div>We know that there remain blurred lines between investor and home loans, but the February data shows that overall the balance has tilted back in favour of owner-occupier finance ($21 billion) over investment housing finance ($11.9 billion).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, 2016 looks likely to be a steadier year for property markets, as investors are limited in their borrowing capacity.<br><br>It's worth remembering that owner-occupiers represent a greater share of the market, and as such have the potential to push prices up in the areas in which they are buying (think middle-ring suburbs, catchments for good schools, good transport links, appealing shopping and lifestyle locations).<br><br>Investors should now begin to account for about one third of the market, which is much more in line with historical averages.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With returns from fixed interest accounts so low and mortgage repayments much lower than they were, many in the home ownership sector will look to improve the value of their own homes, or look to acquire renovation projects.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed major renovations activity is now at long last trending up in all three of the most populous states, with Sydney leading the way by a margin. Renovation activity is presently less popular in Melbourne, with considerably more modern housing available following a strong decade of construction and dwelling supply.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/13/A10.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/13/A10.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">First homebuyers subdued</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>While 2016 looks set to be the year of the homebuyer, much of the activity is being driven by refinancing and existing home-owning folk looking to trade up or down, rather than by new market entrants.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even if the ABS data is not quite complete or accurate, it seems fair to surmise that the share of dwellings financed by first homebuyers is tracking some way below the long run averages.</div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/13/A9.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/13/A9.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>2016 therefore seems likely to be a year wherein markets are increasingly moved by homebuyers ahead of investors.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It is worth reiterating here that in part due to high transaction costs, whether bought as a home or a pure investment, property works best as a long term play.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The internet and financial media is largely - though, of course, not absolutely - a fusion of noise, short-termism, misinformation and guesswork when it comes to property market commentary. You only need to look back to 2012 for some classic examples of that.<br><br>In my opinion there is very little value in comparing returns with the share market over a one or two year timeframe. Each asset class has its merits and place in a portfolio, but generally speaking property needs at least a ten year time horizon in order to justify the transaction costs. <br><br>The data yesterday confirmed that home loan activity levels - although not necessarily aggregate mortgage values - are rising solidly in Queensland, and this is readily visible in some of the family-friendly middle ring suburbs of Brisbane. Investor hubs are considerably patchier, and many of the resources regions are an absolute disaster zone. <br><br>A final point of interest for today is that markets had increasingly been lining up bets for an interest rate cut as soon as May, though I personally didn't like the odds of that happening. <br><br>I don't spend hours deliberating over monetary policy wording, but clearly the Reserve Bank (RBA) noted in its most recent decision release that "continued low inflation would allow scope for easier policy, should that be appropriate...".<br><br>There are probably three things that would need to be in place for an interest rate cut, being a cooling of property investor lending (tentative tick), confirmation that hiring is weakening, and evidently confirmation of continued low inflation. <br><br>The Labour Force figures for March are due out on Thursday, and the market consensus sees a fairly moderate result as likely, with some clear risks to the unemployment rate reading, while the March inflation data is due out towards the end of the month.<br><br>There's a bit of water to flow under the bridge between now and then, but a nice bump in key commodity prices overnight and an incredibly strong result from NAB's Business Survey really don't point towards a rate cut at this stage. <br><br>A cracking NAB survey showed a surge in business conditions at their highest level in fully eight years since 2008, and while the employment gauge jumped to a five year high. Business conditions are now showing a reading of +12, absolutely miles above the long run average of +5, and capacity utilisation has improved strongly (I do note here, though, that the outlook for mining remains dire). <br><br>The RBA has arguably been a reluctant cutter through this cycle, so I reckon that rules out a May cut. In fact, interest rates could be on hold for as far as the eye can see. <br><br>As ever, happy to be proven wrong on that, though.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</body></html>

Residential construction boom tapering off: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p><span>The days of double-digit rental yields in Australia are gone. And it’s hard to see those times returning any day soon.</span></p>
<p><span>Up until about three years ago, Australians who were comfortable with risk, or perhaps oblivious to it, were buying in mining towns and resources-related regional centres, and commonly achieving initial gross rental returns of 10%, sometimes more.</span></p>
<p><span>But the same places are now likely to offer little better than 5%. Even though prices have fallen a lot in devastated mining centres, rents have fallen even more. Median rental yields, according to Domain, are now 4.8% in Newman, 5.8% in Port Hedland, 4.3% in Emerald and 3.1% in Moranbah.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>So where do you turn, now, for a better-than-average rental yield?</span></p>
<p><span>The best on offer that I can find are in Cairns in North Queensland. The median rental yields for apartments are generally 7% and above, more because prices tend to be low rather than because rents are high.</span></p>
<p><span>According to Domain figures, the median return for Cairns North, where over 200 apartments have sold in the past 12 months at a median price of $237,000, is 7.5%.</span></p>
<p><span>In downmarket Manoora, where 90 units have sold at a median price of $167,000, the median rental yield is 7.9%. And in Woree (median price $148,000), the median rental yield is 8.0%. That means a small unit selling for $150,000 and renting for $230 a week.</span></p>
<p><span>Houses around Cairns generally provide rental yields in the 5.5% to 6.0% range.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>It’s worth considering because Cairns presents a solid market at the moment - boosted by an improving economy, strong tourism and major spending on infrastructure. Some suburbs have recorded double-digit growth in median prices in the past 12 months.</span></p>
<p><span>The bottom line is that those Cairns yields are as you good as you will realistically find across Australia. There is nowhere I know about that offers double-digit yields anymore. And I mean genuine rental returns, not computer-generated statistical glitches.</span></p>
<p><span>If you read enough newspapers, magazines and online news services, you’re going to see lots of lists claiming that returns well above 10%, sometimes above 20%, are available.</span></p>
<p><span>Don’t believe these stories. They are statistical aberrations and credible median organisations wouldn’t publish them.</span></p>
<p><span>One of these lists published recently claimed there’s a place in Queensland where you can get rental yields of - wait for it - 58%. That’s so obviously absurd that it's amazing anyone published it, but print it they did.</span></p>
<p><span>Just pause for a moment and consider what’s being suggested here. A rental yield of 58%, apart from being an obvious error, means a property selling for $300,000 would fetch rent of $174,000 a year or $3,346 per week.</span></p>
<p><span>When I first saw it in an online real estate magazine, I thought it might be a typographical error.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>But no, I clicked on the town credited with this remarkable real estate achievement and there, sure enough, was a presentation of figures which showed how they arrived at this.</span></p>
<p><span>The town credited with a 58% median rental yield was Beaudesert, south of Brisbane and west of the Gold Coast.</span></p>
<p><span>Apparently, you can buy units in Beaudesert for $22,500. Yes, apartments for less than the price of a Jeep. And given that the median weekly rent for these remarkably cheap dwellings is $253 per week, rental yields are indeed 58.47% - according to the computer, at least, proving once again the validity of the old adage about “garbage in, garbage out”.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>Obviously someone has made a mistake. You can’t buy units for $22,500 in Beaudesert - or anywhere else in Australia. And, equally obviously, typical yields in the town are not 58.47%.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>But wouldn’t you think someone would take steps to correct these startling errors? Because they’re common. Mistakes of this kind are appearing weekly, if not daily, in real estate media.</span></p>
<p><span>In October I wrote about claims from the same source that you could commonly achieve 30% yields in Mission Beach – and other instances where it has been claimed that prices in tiny towns have risen 40-50% in 12 months.</span></p>
<p><span>The latest presentation of the top five locations in each state with the highest yields was a litany of these types of mistakes. It’s claimed there’s a location in NSW where typical yields are 28%, a tiny town in South Australia where you can commonly achieve 16% and a coastal hamlet in Tasmania where 15% returns are common.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>Many of the locations listed as having outstanding rental yields are basket-case markets with vacancies above 20%.</span></p>
<p><span>Others are coastal towns where high rents are achieved in peak holiday times and the computer assumes those peak rents are achieved 52 weeks of the year (when, in reality, the properties are vacant for much of the year), hence the ridiculously high yield figure.</span></p>
<p><span>If you choose to believe these figures, you’ll welcome to head off to Beaudesert, Mission Beach or wherever and see if you can find a property where the rental yield is even as high as 6%.</span></p>
<p><span><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>For your free </span><em>Property Observer</em><span> eBook from RAMS, <em>12 tips for first-time buyers</em>, </span><span>covering</span><span> </span><span>everything</span><span> you need to know when it comes to purchasing property, click here.</span></p>
</body></html>

Days of double-digit rental yields in Australia are gone: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
<p>We read and hear a lot of comments about how expensive Sydney real estate is, and we have had some very expensive homes sold here plus some exclusive apartments, although we are yet to reach the price levels associated with some high-end apartments in cities like Milan, Dubai, New York and London.</p>
<p>Many of these apartments, designed to appeal to the super-rich and the fashion savvy buyer are promoted with high-end brands like Baccarat, Armani, Moschino, Missoni, Dunhill, Ferrari, Bulgari and Versace</p>
<p>Baccarat Residences in New York is one example where you can buy a pied-a-terre or if you have big bank balance a ‘palace in the sky’. Baccarat offers features like dramatic living spaces with twenty-foot ceilings but it’s the finer details that add up to a mouth-watering selection of features in these stunning apartments.</p>
<p><strong>Designer Interiors</strong></p>
<p>It all starts with interiors by one of New York’s best know interior style whizzes Tony Ingrao who’s an Architectural Digest 100 designer, with touches like floors that are six-inch white oak planks finished with custom-designed ebony-mahogany stain and entry doors with Baccarat crystal handles and Baccarat lighting fittings the foyers.</p>
<p>These apartments come with Siematic Kitchens including granite bench-tops appliances by Sub-Zero (think $7,000 – $10,000 for your basic fridge from these guys) and a local favourite Miele.</p>
<p>However I am keen to share a few of the added features buyers can access here and this starts with the fact that each residence is equipped with specific technology designed to allow convenient access to all of the associated luxury hotel services 24/7.</p>
<p>But there’s lots more, starting with a private residence’s entrance foyer with a dedicated entrance and private concierge desk and there’s the luxury hotel lifestyle services and amenities accessed via your own touch screen or from a tablet and mobile devices from anywhere in the world.</p>
<p>Of course, the concierge, maintenance, room service and security staff is all on call 24/7. And the list goes on to include dedicated residential housekeeping, child care, personal shopping, personal training, pet and plant care, and floral delivery. Plus when it comes to work (necessary I am sure to pay the service charges) we have business support on hand like couriers and postal and package services, newspaper and magazine delivery.</p>
<p>Feeling a bit peckish? Then you will never go hungry and never mind rushing to the local take-away because this building offers a range of catering options, plus event-planning and in-home chefs, and priority access to event spaces and meeting facilities in the adjoining hotel.</p>
<p>The apartments are also designed to allow room service or housing keeping services to be very discrete, with individual service entries so that your personal chef or florist can come and go in the most inconspicuous way, clearly showing great attention to detail at the design stage.</p>
<p>Still the list continues with custom bath and personal care products crafted by Baccarat and priority access to all hotel facilities, like restaurant reservations, sometimes difficult in New York, the Baccarat spa, pool and fitness centre.</p>
<p>And given the luxury of your surroundings, there’s no need to venture outside? Residents also have private shopping, including priority custom design and production of Baccarat products. But if you do venture away from home, possibly by private jet then there are extra hotel privileges waiting for you in Baccarat Hotels worldwide in places like Paris, Moscow and Tokyo.</p>
<p>But tucked away in the marketing material is a little note that ‘some services are available for an additional fee’ and we can only guess what they might be, still if you’re living here in such luxury, who really cares about the occasional service charge even with some annual fees going well beyond $53,000 a year and that’s not including little extras like home dining or spa entry! It will be exciting for local buyers when this style of apartment luxury spreads to Sydney or Melbourne.</p>
<p><em>Peter Chittenden is managing director for residential of Colliers International. He can be contacted <a href="https://www.projectagenda.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

Property market

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Property market

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News