<p>Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.</p>

<p>The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.</p>

<p>One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.</p>

<p>"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.</p>

<p>"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]</p>

<p>The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.</p>

<p>PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.</p>

<p>"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]</p>

<p>Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.</p>

<p>Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.</p>

<p>The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.</p>

<p>"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.</p>

<p>"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]</p>

<p>Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.</p>

<p>Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]</p>


Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

<p>Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.</p>

<p>The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]</p>

<p>“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.</p>

<p>The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]</p>

<p>“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.</p>

<p>“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]</p>

<p>Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.</p>

<p>Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.</p>

<p>The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.</p>

<p>LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.</p>

<p>Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]</p>


Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

<p>Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?</p>

<p>Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.</p>

<p>NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.</p>

<p>“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.</p>

<p>"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.</p>

<p>Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.</p>

<p>“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”</p>

<p>Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.</p>

<p>“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”</p>

<p>She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.</p>

<p>“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”</p>


Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

<p>A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325]<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.</p>

<p>“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.”<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity.<br />
&nbsp;&nbsp;<br />
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp;<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516]<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Completion is slated for early 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]</p>


Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

<p>Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.</p>

<p>Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.</p>

<p>The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.</p>

<p>Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" /></p>

<p>The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.</p>

<p>The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.</p>

<p>According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."</p>

<p>"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.</p>

<p>"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.</p>

<p>"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."</p>

<p>The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.</p>

<p>COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.</p>

<p>The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.</p>

<p><img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" /></p>

<p>Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.</p>

<p>Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.</p>

<p>Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.</p>

<p>"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.</p>

<p>"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a></em></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

Property market

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>All capital cities recorded a rise in residential prices in the March 2020 quarter, led by Sydney (+1.9 per cent) and Melbourne (+2.1 per cent). </p>
<p>The two largest cities both recorded gains of more than +10 per cent over the year, taking the weighted average capital city price +7.4 per cent higher over the year to March.</p>
<p>Most of the COVID restrictions were rolled out in March, so there was little impact on the price charts by capital city. </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/17/PW2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Sydney houses and attached dwellings both recorded quarterly gains.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/17/PW3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The mean dwelling price rose to a record high at an estimated $690,200.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/17/PW4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The number of dwellings was an estimated 10,485,700.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/17/PW5.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The value of Australia's dwelling stock hit a record high, with a preliminary estimate of $7.23 trillion.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/17/PW6.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The ratio of dwelling stock to GDP increased to 3.79x, but was still just below 2017 levels.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/17/PW7.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>This is a high figure in global terms, but plenty lower than, say, Hong Kong.</p>
<p><em><strong>Pete Wargent</strong> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger<strong style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </strong></em></p>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Average capital city dwelling prices hit record high: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">I'm in the midst of what will ultimately be my most comprehensive research project to date, and henceforth will aim to share a few high level viewpoints and findings on this blog page along the way.</span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are of course a multitide of factors which impact and drive housing markets ranging from macroeconomic drivers to monetary policy, and from consumption patterns to construction rates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But for today let's look briefly and specifically at Australia's demographics.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Population pyramid</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looking below at an Australian population pyramid - which for the purposes of this blog post I have flipped on its side - representing the estimated resident population as at 2014, we can immediately observe a couple of salient points.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly, although Australia does have an ageing population, in part thanks to our immigration program the demographic profile of Australia is markedly different to those found in some other developed countries, and considerably less "top heavy".<br><br>With skilled migration in particular often having favoured those in the 21-30 age bracket, there is presently a relative dearth of people in my age bracket, that being the 31 to 38 year old cohort (see Point A on the below chart).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/PP1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/31/PP1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Depending upon your preferred information source the average or "typical" age of first homebuyers in Australia now ranges anywhere from 31 to 34 years of age, and that figure could potentially levitate further due to a combination of lifestyle factors and increasingly stretched deposit gaps in the two major capital cities.<br><br>Of course, an "average" covers a wide range of ages and strains of buyer, but recent data has suggested that a comfortable majority of first homebuyers are now in their 30s or 40s.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Investors in the ascendancy...for now</span></strong><br><br>
</div>
<div>The shape of the first chart above may therefore go some of the way to explaining the comparatively low volumes of homebuyers in the market through this cycle, with investors dominant to an an unprecedented degree, particularly in the largest capital city markets.<br><br>Naturally other factors have played a role here, particularly looser monetary policy which has encouraged those with existing equity generated through housing market ownership to redeploy it in a faithful manner.<br><br>Not only is there a relative paucity of 31 to 38 year olds where we might expect to find the bulk of first homebuyers, there is also an evident weak spot in the traditional "big spender" cohort.<br><br>Which is to say, there is a proportionate lull in the number of executives, senior managers and business owners commonly aged from around 45 to 55 (refer to Point B on the above chart).</div>
<br><div>While the wave of first homebuyers predominantly impacts dwelling prices at the entry level, it is those in these middle working years that are the heaviest spenders in the housing market, making their most material dwelling purchases at that stage in life.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As you can see in the graphic above, the demographic pyramid does not present too kindly in respect of either cohort at the current time...and nor is it likely to do so for some years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Looking swell (2021-2027)</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, rolling the chart packs forward by calendar year we find that it is not until around around 2021 that the number of potential first homebuyers reaches a critical mass which might be considered compelling, with the number of 31 to 38 year olds in particular mushrooming to a total of more than 3.1 million (from around only 2.6 million in 2014).<br><br>In the period through to 2027, that number is projected to have expanded further still to more than 3.3 million. </div>
<div>
<br>As this effective "spending wave" passes through 2021, therefore, the demographic factors for Australian housing market growth look to be particularly favourable from that year until around 2027 inclusive.<br><br>As you can see in the second chart below, not only will the total population of Australia have swelled significantly by 2021 to around 26.5 million, the clamour of potential purchasers in the 31 to 38 year old age bracket (Point A below) really begins to amplify.<br><br>Furthermore there will be a coinciding wave of Australians approaching the latter half of their fourth decade (Point B below), the time of life at which they are likely to make their most consequential home purchases. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/PP2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/31/PP2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>This isn't to suggest here that the demographics for homebuyer activity then deteriorate after 2027 as such, rather that the projected figures then plateau for a period of time and thereby stop improving so impressively.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">City winners and losers</span></strong><br><br>Drilling down to the next statistical level, it can be found that from around 2021 the demographic waves will become very favourable for Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and and <span style="text-decoration: underline;">particularly</span> Perth (assuming the superfluity of mining boom migrants opts to stay put, and interstate migration away from Western Australia doesn't begin to bite).<br><br>Hampered by an interstate migration "brain drain" these demographic waves do not suggest a favourable environment for the Adelaide housing market, with barely any improvement discernible over the same time horizon.<br><br>Meanwhile the latest projections suggest that Tasmania's housing market demographics could potentially worsen quite appreciably in the years leading up to 2035, although such longer term projections by their very nature tend to be less than reliable.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Dwelling starts</span></strong>
</div>
<div>
<br>While this is a blog post predominantly concerned with demographics, it's worth considering for a moment how the above findings tie in with the dwelling construction cycle.<br><br>Two of the "X-factors" which have impacted this housing market cycle have been an explosion in the volume of Asian capital invested in the Australian market and a hitherto unseen shift towards multi-unit construction.<br><br>Although 2015 will likely prove to be the market peak for dwelling starts, dwelling <em>completions</em> will remain elevated for the next few years.<br><br>In combination with a slowing rate of population growth, this will be one of the factors together with an erosion of yields which will eventually bring the current growth cycle to its end.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/HIA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/31/HIA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Since natural population growth and net overseas migration will take some time to absorb the excess dwelling stock, this also points broadly towards 2021-2027 as a likely period for housing market growth.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/AW1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/08/31/AW1.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Long run demographics are healthy</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>While the latest data suggests that over the short term Australia's populaton growth is likely to continue to slow, over the very long run the demographics of Australia are exceptionally compelling, with the population potentially set to almost double by over the next half century.<br><br>Also note that immigration is projected to keep the headcount in the potential homebuyer age brackets expanding to heights that agents and other industry participants can only dream of today.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/PP3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/31/PP3.jpg" alt=""></div>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br>With life expectancies increasing there will evidently be a greater number of residents living well beyond the traditional retirement date in the decades ahead, although in time we might expect to see more folk working beyond the traditional retirement age too.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The chart above implies that with the demand for capital city property likely to approximately double over the very long run, the likelihood of capital city land values in the landlocked inner- and middle-ring suburbs remaining anything less than singularly expensive appears quite remote.<br><br>Of course, it isn't possible to forecast or time markets so accurately, but over the near term there could easily be a relatively weak period ahead for housing markets as dwelling completions overtake demand, before a potentially strong rebound running broadly between 2021 and 2027. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The most interesting and useful findings are those which incorporate the shifting composition of net migration at the suburb level, though I don't post detailed suburb research on my blog. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Making waves in the Aussie housing market: Pete Wargent

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<p>As they do every year, new listings increased over the first month of spring, with further additions of stock to the market expected to ramp up until the end of year slow-down in December.</p>
<p>In addition to the number of listings being added to the market CoreLogic RP Data’s lead listings indicator is also showing a 1.6% month-on-month change (seasonally adjusted), with Tasmania (+5.2%) and Victoria (3.4%) showing the most activity of listings being prepared for sale.</p>
<p>In terms of listing stock, the largest proportionate increases this month relative to last month have been observed in Brisbane, where the number of residential properties added to the market over the four weeks ending 27 September was 12.9% higher than the four week period a month earlier. Following Brisbane was Hobart (12.5% higher) and Adelaide (11.0% higher).</p>
<p>Despite the increase in new listings, total stock levels remain just 1.2 per cent higher relative to one year ago across the combined capital cities, while nationally; total listings are -0.6 per cent lower. As at 27 September, there were 234,094 residential properties available for sale across Australia, while one year ago, there were 235,399.</p>
<p>When compared to last year, across the capital cities, total listings are higher in Perth (+20.7%), Darwin (+12.3%) and for the first time this year, Sydney (+4.7%). In Sydney, one of the reasons the total stock levels are now higher than one year ago is likely due to the increase in stock being added to the market. New listings across the city are 16 per cent higher than one year ago, to put this into perspective, over the comparable 28 day period one year ago, 7,431 listings were newly added to the market, compared to 8,617 this year.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/30/Table.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/30/Table.jpg" alt="" width="886" height="199"></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/30/Capital-city.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/30/Capital-city.jpg" alt="" width="731" height="276"></p>
<p><span>Across the individual states and territories, there are more listings than one year ago in Western Australia, Northern Territory (both +12.9%) and to a lesser degree, South Australia (+2.2%), while across these three regions, the number of new listings added to the market over the past four weeks is lower than one year ago. In all other states and territories, total listings are currently lower than they were relative to last year.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/30/National.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/30/National.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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First month of spring returns lift in new listings: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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<h1 class="title"> </h1>
<p><span>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released housing finance data for September 2015 earlier this week.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/11/12/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-12%20at%2010.10.17%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/11/12/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-12%20at%2010.10.17%20AM.png" alt="" width="623" height="488"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>The broad housing finance trends show that demand from the owner occupier segment of lending is falling while demand from investors fades.  Of course since late December last year we have seen limits come into effect regarding annual investment credit growth as well as, more recently, higher interest rates for all investment borrowers and lower loan to value ratios for many.  </span></p>
<p><span>Given these changes it is no real surprise that demand from this market segment is falling; there is less investment borrowing to be had and lower LVRs mean that for many borrowers negative gearing becomes somewhat less attractive. On the other hand, demand from owner occupiers is rising, largely from upgraders and those refinancing while there is little sign that first home buyer demand is rising. </span></p>
<p><span>Much of the recent refinance activity has subsequently translated into eventual housing investment, it will be interesting to see if the current refinance activity is just home owners shopping around for a better mortgage deal or if it will start to flow to investment in other asset classes.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/11/12/Chart-2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/11/12/Chart-2.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>Looking more closely at owner occupier lending, the seasonally adjusted data shows that there was $21.0 billion worth of commitments in September 2015.  This represented a monthly increase of 3.0% and a year-on-year rise of 23.1%. The $21.0 billion consisted of $1.8 billion in lending for construction of dwellings, $1.3 billion in lending for purchase of new dwellings, $6.7 billion in lending for refinances and $11.2 billion in lending for purchase of established dwellings. </span></p>
<p><span>Each of the four components of owner occupier housing finance commitments have increased over the month with most having increased year-on-year.  Year-on-year, the changes have been recorded at -1.3% for lending for construction of dwellings, +32.1% for lending for purchase of new dwellings, +30.0% for refinances and +23.0% for purchases of established dwellings. </span></p>
<p><span>Clearly owner occupier demand is rising however, the ABS does note that ADIs are currently making changes to lending classifications which are seeing more investor loans classified as loans to owner occupiers. This will be contributing to a proportion of this rise, how big that proportion is we are unsure.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/11/12/Chart-3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/11/12/Chart-3.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>In September 2015 there was a seasonally adjusted $12.3 billion worth of housing finance commitments to investors, this was the lowest value of investor lending since August 2014.  The monthly value of lending to investors has fallen by -12.8% from its peak of $14.1 billion in April 2015.  The $12.3 billion figure consists of $0.6 billion in lending for new construction which is the lowest level in a year and $11.7 billion in lending for established homes which is the lowest level since August of last year.  Lending for new construction tends to be volatile however, it has fallen by -42.2% from its recent peak of $1.1 billion worth of commitments in December 2014.  The less volatile investment lending for established homes has fallen by -11.0% from its peak of $13.1 billion in April 2015.  Again, recent reclassifications of lending by ADIs will be contributing to some of the recent weakness however, a changing investment lending landscape is undoubtedly the most significant contributor.</span></p>
<p><span>The latest housing credit data shows that the annual rate of investor credit growth still remains above 10% (10.4%) so it is reasonable to expect that investor housing finance commitments will continue to fall over the coming months. With the rate of value growth slowing, higher interest rates and lower LVRs for many investors, the attractiveness of purchasing an investment property is also easing. </span></p>
<p><span>While investment lending has been cooling down, owner occupier lending has been rising however, much of the rise is due to upgraders and refinances.  We anticipate that this trend is likely to continue although probably not rising by the same magnitude as we’ve seen over recent months. Furthermore we anticipate that less of the refinance activity is going to flow back into housing in the form of investment purchasing.</span></p>
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<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Investor housing demand continues to fall sharply: Cameron Kusher

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<p><span>The ABS released its l</span>ending finance<span> figures for the month of September 2015 which showed a seasonally adjusted 9.5% jump in commercial finance, though in trend terms commercial finance has looked somewhat peaky.</span><br><br><span>Total lending finance increased from a seasonally adjusted $70.7 billion in August to a new cyclical high of $75.3 billion, another signal that low interest rates are gradually biting and having a positive impact on credit flows.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/11/16/A1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/11/16/A1.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Although there have been instances of stronger monthly results for lending finance - a flood of recapitalisation through the financial crisis saw spikes in June 2007 and January 2008 respectively - the monthly trend result has now hit a fresh high of above $73 billion.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Shifting composition</span></strong>
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<div> </div>
<div>With APRA having clamped down on property investment loans, lenders are evidently pushing owner-occupier products harder, with the red line in the chart below denoting another 3% increase in the month to beyond $21 billion.<br><br>In trend terms owner-occupier lending has surged more than 20% higher over the past year, while major renovations activity ("alterations and additions") trended up to its best result in four years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/16/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/16/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The great surge in owner-occupier loans over the past year has been almost entirely accounted for by New South Wales and to a somewhat lesser extent Victoria.<br><br>Mirroring figures previously reported by the Reserve Bank, September was a healthy result for commercial finance with a 9.5 per seasonally adjusted jump in the month to $46.1 billion.<br><br>While the trend result looks peaky, this can be a rather unpredictable series, and in rolling annual terms commercial lending has surged 50 per cent higher over the past half decade to sit at its highest level in some 7.5 years.</div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Property investor loans clamp-down</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Loans to purchase investment property are now clearly softening, which overall is a healthy sign for residential real estate markets which had become far too top-heavy with investors, resulting in rising vacancy rates and declining rents in some regions.<br><br>On a rolling annual basis NSW investment loans tore out a new record of $67.9 billion, but this particular peak is now close to being in following three months of softer results.<br><br>In June the Premier State had seen an unprecedented $6.6 billion of investor loans written in a single month, but over the last two months of available data the total dollar value of NSW property investment loans has come in at around $5.6 billion (which is nevertheless still a huge volume in historical terms).</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/11/16/A1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/16/A1-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Despite the softening in investment loans, with the volume of NSW owner-occupier lending booming by </span>an astonishing 46.2%<span> over the past year, September was the greatest month on record for total NSW property lending at well over $14 billion at the state level.</span>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/11/16/LF3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/16/LF3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Now it may be that some of the outlandish $8.55 billion of NSW owner-occupier lending in September was bogus - or at least not genuinely representative of new property market demand - with some existing owners having opted to refinance following the tightening of mortgage rates by some lenders.<br><br>At the sub-regional level it would be no surprise on this evidence to see surprisingly strong auction and property market results in some of Sydney's inner ring, particularly in the eastern suburbs.<br><br>However it's clear that the heat has already come right out of the western and outer south-western suburbs, leaving some recent buyers wondering what they've let themselves in for.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Generally speaking APRA's macroprudential measures have been effective in slowing the pace of investor lending right across the board. Next up, I'll take a look at the trends in investor lending across each state and territory.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Shifting sands (record NSW lending?) Pete Wargent

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<p>If there were a term that I would love to see introduced into the Australian property vernacular it would be just the one word – “shifts”.</p>
<p>For some time now I have found it most frustrating the way commentators and (to a much lesser extent) politicians raise topics, such as housing affordability is a fine example, Headlines such as “Australia’s housing affordability improved in the first three months of 2016” mean very little and serve little purpose. The problem with the housing affordability debate is that it focuses on Sydney and Melbourne which are the two most sort after locations whilst there is no mention of the affordable areas.</p>
<p>Rather we should for example look at what’s actually driving our specific market demographics on a suburb by suburb basis. Only then can we actually get a proper idea of what is actually happening where, believe me, we are now seeing some healthy shifts and some alarming shifts.</p>
<p>For example, in many Sydney suburbs we are now seeing record low stock levels particularly with houses – so what caused these shifts? In the vast majority of cases it always comes back to government policies whether federal, state or local. The reason why we are seeing less houses on the markets is because property values have grown to such a level that the barrier is now stamp duty. For a house purchased at $3,000,000 it is $150,490 and a house purchased at $4,000,000 it is $220,490 so home owners are now going to Plan B – refinancing and renovating.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>When I speak to property valuers in our area I’m told that their workloads are now split 50/50 between purchases and re-financing which is a shift that started 3 years ago. Three years ago in Mosman there would be around 125 houses on the market each week where today there is around 50, so homeowners are refinancing to renovate with a view to a longer hold.</p>
<p>In November 2013, the value of housing finance was 26 percent higher than the previous year. This shift has continued ever since which clearly identifies where homeowners are shifting their monies taking household debts to historic highs with historic low interest rates.</p>
<p>Mosman has 5,890 houses approximately with 55 on the market today. Cremorne has 7,135 houses approximately with 7 on the market today. Neutral Bay has 1,109 houses approximately with 8 on the market today. Cammeray has 1,275 houses approximately with 9 on the market today. Northbridge has 1,914 houses approximately with 10 on the market today and Seaforth has 2,317 houses approximately with 18 on the market today. This has been the pattern for the last three years and don’t expect this to change any time soon.</p>
<p>Now when we look at the shifts in the new apartment markets this is where it gets scary because the blame here is shared equally between the state and federal governments. When the state government starts introducing a strategy for massive high–density developments and the federal government changes the ratio restrictions from 50 per cent to 100 per cent for overseas buyers on off–the–plan purchases, as I said a few years ago – train wreck.</p>
<p>Recently we read that the major banks ceased foreign lending so I immediately thought something is happening here as banks never turn away new revenue streams. Now we read that Westpac and the ANZ have found approximately $1 billion in Chinese mortgage application fraud. No doubt a precursor to the Australian Taxation Office clampdown on non – resident purchases so the anxious buyers then shifted to federal government endorsed off–the–plan purchases. It’s anyone’s guess where this will end up, although you would be right in saying this is only going to get worse. More particularly this has the potential so see a major revaluation of existing apartment purchases significantly down. Little wonder the major lenders announced recently that they were not approving any more loans in many Sydney suburbs.</p>
<p>Now shift your attention to the upcoming federal election where the Liberal party is not going to touch negative gearing and the Labor party are going to only make negative gearing available to new properties. Can you see another potential shift in the markets if negative gearing only applies to the new developments where given what’s currently happening nobody will be buying anything until these markets sort themselves out?</p>
<p>Then I read an article recently where Harry Triguboff announced that recently sales to Chinese buyers had halved and that Chinese buyers over the past few years had accounted for 80 percent of new Sydney apartment sales. Yes – 80 percent! Why is this not an election issue?</p>
<p>Now to put this into further perspective household consumption is actually what’s presently driving the Australian economy. In the December quarter 2015 national accounts household consumption delivered 0.4 percent of the total 0.6 percent growth.</p>
<p>Now there are a few shifts that need much closer examination. First signs for the NSW government will be a dramatic collapse in stamp duty revenues which is happening big time. The once ever dependable existing house market is renovating or has renovated so no financial joy there either. Then there will be a dependence on the off–the–plan purchases actually completing, although that’s looking shaky too. With 93 percent of investors preferring to buy existing properties and now the ALP wants them to but new properties – well that won’t work. We now know that nearly all the off–the–plan sales have gone to Asian investors.</p>
<p>The ALP need to be corrected on this as this policy change to negative gearing is Mining Tax Mark II.</p>
<h4>MOSMAN – 2088</h4>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 57</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 51</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 55</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 49</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 53</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 50</p>
<h4>CREMORNE – 2090</h4>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 4</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 8</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 7</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 14</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 24</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 23</p>
<h4>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h4>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 3</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 11</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 8</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 27</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 25</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 21</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000.</em></p>
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Beware of the Sydney property shifts

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<p><span>A reasonably solid set of </span>Lending Finance<span> numbers were reported for October 2015, with commercial finance fairly flat, down 1% at a seasonally adjusted $45.6 billion (following a 9% jump in September), and total lending tentatively inching up to a new trend high of $73.7 billion. </span></p>
<p><span>Both commercial lending and total lending finance have recently breached 7 year highs.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/15/LF1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/12/15/LF1.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>As we saw </span>earlier in the week<span>, owner-occupier lending has increased very sharply, with commitments for the purchase or construction of dwellings up by 23% over the past year on a seasonally adjusted basis.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/15/LF2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/12/15/LF2.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Lease finance increased by 17 per cent over the year, but loans for the purchase of blocks of residential land are down by some 25 per cent since one year ago.</div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Investor finance derailed</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>The flip side to the strong home loans data is that the cooling macroprudential measures implemented by APRA have derailed the runaway investor boom, with investor commitments crashing off their respective tracks across every state and territory.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/15/LF3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/15/LF3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Demand was fading in Western Australia and the Northern Territory in any case, and now after lending curbs even those who want to source investor finance are struggling to do so. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Prices will almost certainly thus follow rents down in 2016 in Perth and Darwin. The Top End in particular is looking set for a sharp correction, with median detached house rents having declined by around 20% and investor loans now tanking, down by more than 40 per cent over the past year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/15/NT.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/15/NT.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Borrowers flipping the script</span></strong><br><br><div>The crimping of investor lending has clearly been enough to bring many property markets back to stall speed, as evidenced by stumbling auction clearance rates. However, there is a bit more to this than meets the eye, and it does not necessarily follow that APRA's measures will lead to declining house prices across the board (it seems unlikely that this was the intention in any case).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>For "Exhibit A" the Reserve Bank's Financial Aggregrates data has already implied that some loans are being switched to or reclassified as owner-occupier products, as borrowers aim to obtain the cheaper mortgage rates now associated with that sector of the market (see <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/credit-growth-at-near-7-year-high" target="_blank">here</a> for more).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And now for "Exhibit B", refer to the Housing Finance data for October released this week, which implies exactly the same thing, that borrowers and lenders are flipping the script in order to counter APRA's regulatory intervention. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/15/LF4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/15/LF4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>To date most of the increase in owner-occupier commitments has been focussed upon New South Wales and Victoria, although a fair proportion of that has related to refinancing rather than genuinely new lending.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/15/LF5.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/12/15/LF5.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The Reserve Bank's Financial Aggregates data for October mirrored these trends closely, the net result being that housing credit growth rose to a fresh cyclical high of 7.5%, although it does seem that the pace of increase is steadying. </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>There is evidently quite a bit going on in the housing finance space at the moment and not a great deal of clarity surrounding the numbers. In truth some lenders themselves probably have little clarity around the classification of loans beyond their initiation.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>To date it has become clear that the APRA measures have scrambled the market and have stopped the Sydney boom from rolling unchecked into another calendar year, with investor commitments having pulled back sharply right across the board.<br><br>In time, this will be seen to be a worthy step, since many markets had become far too top-heavy with investors. At the peak of the investor market, excluding refinancing, in New South Wales and Victoria investor loans had breached 60 and 50 per cent of the mortgage market respectively. Today the equivalent numbers are down to 50 and 40 percent and falling.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>My experience in the UK suggests to me that caution should be exercised before declaring the unpredictable outcomes of macroprudential measures prematurely. Britain's Mortgage Market Review (MMR), which had the stated goal of curbing irresponsible lending, radically changing mortgage rules with effect from April 2014 and for six months the housing market was gummed up by the paperwork and pen-pushing. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yet as of today UK housing prices are once again rising at a reomping annualised pace of 9 per cent, with the popular markets of the south east tracking in double digit territory to record highs. Unlike the global real estate experts out there I don't pretend to know a great deal about the experiences related to macroprudential measures in New Zealand, but assume similar tales could be told, at least in Auckland. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It will be an interesting start to 2016, which I think will be a more unpredictable year than most, and not only in the housing market space.</div>
<div> </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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2016 unpredictable for housing after APRA runs interference: Pete Wargent

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<div>When I wrote my book <em>Get a Financial Grip</em> in 2011, I predicted a surge in property prices for a number of key Sydney suburbs located within a comfortable ten minute commute of the Central Business District, particularly those with outstanding rail transport links.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the event, actually most parts of Sydney have been through a real estate bonanza since that time, with solid picks demonstrating capital growth of around 60 per cent since early 2012. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although Sydney is presently set for a multi-year $70 billion infrastructure boom with the state coffers overflowing, preliminary auction clearance rates this week once again confirmed that many distant or outer suburbs are now wallowing in the midst of  a reversal.</div>
<div><strong> </strong></div>
<div><strong>Preliminary clearance rates (<em>CoreLogic-RP Data</em>)</strong></div>
<div><strong>Inner west - 75 per cent</strong></div>
<div><strong>South west - 30 per cent</strong></div>
<div><strong>Blacktown - 22 per cent </strong></div>
<div><strong>Outer west - n/a</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>House and land prices appreciating faster close to the city over time - explained by housing market economics as the "bid-rent curve" - partly equates to the eastern, inner western and lower north shore suburbs being the most conveniently placed for the city, lifestyle, entertainment, and Sydney beaches. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And partly this dynamic is due to the simple geometry of concentric rings: an inner 6km ring has just 113 square kilometres of land therein, as compared to 1,250 square kilometres in the band located 30-36km from the city (the bit that is in the Pacific Ocean notwithstanding). Simply put, there is stacks of land available for development in the outer west and south west; but close to the city it is not so.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps more important than any of this, however, is one other factor: the location of the new jobs being created in Sydney.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Jobs deficits and surpluses</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>My former employers Deloitte released another outstanding report this week entitled Designing Western Sydney - Shaping Future Cities, with this simple graphic neatly encapsulating one of the greatest challenges facing the harbour city.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/16/Deloitte.jpg" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2015/12/16/Deloitte.jpg" alt=""> </span></p>
<div>Eastern Sydney - which if you are unfamiliar with the geography of Sydney, for the purposes of this report is the bit around where the city and the harbour is located - has created thousands more jobs than workers for a jobs surplus of around 175,000, and is forecast to continue doing more of the same over the decade ahead.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Western Sydney, on the other hand, has thousands more workers (1,088,000) than jobs (881,000). The net result is that each working day well over 300,000 Western Sydney residents travel out of the region to work, compared to only 100,000 travelling into the region, for a jobs deficit of approximately 200,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It is all well and good to suggest that aspiring homeowners should simply pack up and head west for more affordable housing options, but if this requires an hour long commute across congested road or rail, in aggregate this will fail to transpire. Notes Deloitte:</div>
<div><em><strong> </strong></em></div>
<div><strong>"Place matters more than ever. As telecommunications and travel have grown steadily cheaper, people have chosen to live closer together rather than further apart".</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Worsening jos deficit</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Western Sydney jobs deficit is projected to get much worse. Through 2031 more than half of the city's population growth is expected to be in Western Sydney at 52 per cent - with an extra 1 million residents expected and an estimated 664,000 new homes needed in the region - yet only 38 per cent of the new Sydney jobs are expected to be created there.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>By 2041 it is projected that Western Sydney will have a colossal jobs deficit of 340,000, while conversely Eastern Sydney is projected to have a surplus of some 238,000 jobs, with the "high value" professional and business services jobs overwhelmingly centred on the east and only a "comparative weakness" in the west (which is also home to 8 of the 10 poorest LGAs).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thus by 2041 it is projected that an extra 140,000 persons per day will be using the already congested transport links from Western Sydney, which would require 19 new freeways, six new train lines, or 1,700 new buses.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It is little wonder, therefore, that Sydneysiders place a premium upon place over space, and continue to target the suburbs close to the city.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Levers</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>With easy monetary policy and a lower dollar the Sydney economy is firing on all cylinders, and it is likely that the Western Sydney region can generate 110,000 to 120,000 new jobs by the end of the decade as things stand, but Deloitte has laid down the challenge for 200,000 great new jobs to be created. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Deloitte identifies 25 strategies and seven "levers" that can be used to generate 200,000 great Western Sydney jobs, particuarly within the health, international education, manufacturing, agribusiness. tourism, cultural, and "enabling" industries (financial services, construction, transport &amp; logistics, retail, and government administration). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although some Australians oppose population growth and the increased density of living, it can without question benefit economic standing, with productivity, the labour force, and the way in which businesses interact with each other all gaining from proximity, and the capital cities acting as the "engines of growth". Over the next decade Gross State Product per capita is thus expected to soar by 30%.</div>
<div>
<br>Although few seem to have realised it yet, the next Sydney sector to boom will be education, evidenced through a massive influx of international students.</div>
<p> </p>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
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Western Sydney's job surge: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>SPONSORED POST</span></p>
<p><span>While Australia’s property market remains a safe haven, limited stock is a significant obstacle for overseas investors, Napier &amp; Blakeley’s managing director Alastair Walker.</span></p>
<p><span>“There is still a substantial amount of investment funds under management looking for a home – and the volatility in other markets serves as a reminder that Australia remains a safe haven,” says Walker, who oversees the independent property, development and sustainability consultancy.</span></p>
<p><span>The latest investment intentions survey from the Asian Association for Investors in Non-listed Real Estate Vehicles (ANREV) reports around AU$82.4 billion is expected to be poured into property in 2016, with the top three investment destinations in the regions of Tokyo, Sydney and Melbourne.</span></p>
<p><span>“Opportunity is now the great conundrum facing investors,” Walker recently blogged.</span></p>
<p><span>“Australia presents a transparent market with a good yield to debt ratio, but a shortage of stock is limiting investment opportunity.</span></p>
<p><span>“The local property investment groups who have righted their ships in the last seven years after the Global Financial Crisis are now heavily challenged by offshore investors, some with very deep pockets.”</span></p>
<p><span>“Our chairman, Peter Mitchell, is based in Singapore, and travels around Asia talking to investors and we get reports back every day, especially from Chinese investors wanting to get into the Australian market. These aren’t just big global funds, but a range of investors who see Australia, and particularly Sydney, as an attractive destination,” he adds.</span></p>
<p><span>While Sydney and Melbourne remain the “first choice” for offshore investors, Walker says they are increasingly looking further afield – and are looking beyond traditional shiny new offices.</span></p>
<p><span>“Expect retrofitting of existing assets – something that has been slow off the mark – to become a bigger thing in 2016,” Walker says.</span></p>
<p><span>Established in 1985, Napier &amp; Blakeley is an independent and privately-owned, international, integrated, property services consulting organisation. </span></p>
<p><span><em>Contact one of our specialists for <a href="https://nbtax.com.au/" target="_blank">further information</a>.</em></span></p>
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Opportunity is the great conundrum for commercial property investors

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The Victorian property market finished 2015 on a high with a record number of auctions held in November and December.</span></p>
<p>While median house price growth is expected to moderate this year, population increases, a robust economy and relatively low interest rates will encourage buyer interest in 2016. <br><br>In 2016 the REIV expects moderate growth across the city with further price increases in a range of suburbs in Melbourne’s inner, middle and outer rings.</p>
<p>Some suburbs to watch in 2016 are:<br><br><strong>WEST OF THE CBD</strong></p>
<p>Footscray - Close to the CBD and recorded double-digit growth in 2015. Footscray remains affordable given its location in Melbourne’s inner ring. Improving infrastructure and gentrification likely to result in solid long-term growth. <br>Median price: $780,000<br><br>Altona - Close to the CBD (13km) and to the bay and has seen double digit growth in 2015. Private sales market tightened in 2015 and clearance rate increased, despite listings being up 17 per cent. <br>Median price: $710,125<br><br>Sunshine - Still offers very affordable buying and is within 11km of the Melbourne city centre. Larger land blocks are proving attractive to both buyers and developers.<br>Median price: $530,000<br><br>Spotswood - Another inner west Melbourne suburbs which is poised for further growth in 2016. Despite listings increasing significantly in 2015, the median days on market fell 23 days and clearance rate improved 13 per cent.  Median house price remains well below the inner Melbourne median of $1,236,000.<br>Median price: $775,000<br><br><br><strong>NORTH OF THE CBD</strong><br><br>Preston – Has seen solid growth in recent months, reflected in strong private sales activity (median number of days on market declined seven days in 2015). Located within 10km of the CBD, Preston’s median house price remains well below the inner Melbourne median of $1,236,000.<br>Median house price: $815,000      <br><br>Epping – Located on the fringe of Melbourne’s middle ring, Epping recorded solid price growth in 2015, driven by a strong private sale market. Poised for further increases in the coming 12 months. <br>Median price: $432,750.<br><br><br><strong>EAST OF THE CBD </strong><br><br>Burwood East - A big growth area with extensive development underway at present. While the median house price is high, days on market continue to fall (down from 37 days in 2014 to 30 days in the past 12 months) showing increasing buyer interest.<br>Median price: $1,004m<br><br>Montrose – Has a relatively affordable median house price for those buying in Melbourne’s east and has shown good signs of capital growth in the past 12 months (up 10%). A significant drop in median days on market in 2015 (down 11 days to 19 days) has resulted in a strong private sales market.<br>Median price: $600,000<br><br>Mount Waverley - Experienced one of the highest median price increases of any Melbourne suburb in 2015, up more than 20 per cent, but should still see growth this year. Attractive to foreign investors and quality local schools (Mt Waverley Secondary College) are also proving to be a key driver for buyers. <br>Median price: $1.38m<br><br>Glen Waverley – Middle-eastern suburb which has been in the spotlight in 2015, and will continue in 2016. Given it is zoned for quality public school Glen Waverley Secondary College, buyer demand is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.  <br>Median price: $1.319m<br><br><strong>SOUTH OF THE CBD </strong><br><br>Seaford - Bayside and has experienced strong growth in the past six months. Like Sunshine, is also very affordable. Strong private sales activity and clearance rate. <br> Median price: $530,000<br><br>Chelsea - Close to the bay and with good transport to the CBD. Saw a strong private sale market and solid auction activity in 2015 as well as double-digit annual growth. Should be a solid year ahead.                </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Median price: $727,000</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><em>‎Enzo Raimondo is chief executive officer of <a href="https://www.reiv.com.au/" target="_blank">The Real Estate Institute of Victoria</a>.</em></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>{mijopolls 126}</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><em> </em></span></p>
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