Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest. 
&nbsp; 
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>. 
&nbsp; 
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials. 
&nbsp; 
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325] 
&nbsp; 
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand. 
&nbsp; 
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.

“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.” 
&nbsp; 
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity. 
&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project. 
&nbsp; 
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516] 
&nbsp; 
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;

Completion is slated for early 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]

Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.

The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.

Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" />

The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.

The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.

According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."

"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.

"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.

"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."

The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.

COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.

The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" />

Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.

Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.

Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.

"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.

"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

Property market

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<div>Last week Reserve Bank Governor Stevens disclosed that he had discussed with his underlings whether the Reserve should do away with its apparently precise central growth, unemployment and inflation forecasts, in favour of publishing only their 'fan charts' and ranges in tables. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>By way of an example the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) forecasts showed GDP growth returning to 3 to 4% by the year ended December 2017, with the unemployment rate forecast to decline gradually, but the fan charts show that even the 70 per cent confidence intervals are surprisingly wide. </div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/11/30/RBA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/30/RBA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div>Noting that accurate forecasting is impossible, Stevens lamented that even if even if the central lines were to be left off the fan charts altogether, those awkward commentator folk would simply back it of the charts, which seems rather unfair. In short, the most powerful central bank or econometric modelling can't forecast accurately what will happen over any meaningful time horizon, and neither can you!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Ponzi scheme</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Also last week a macro market report hit the headlines likening the Australian property market to a Ponzi scheme. Australians would be forgiven for thinking that they've heard such warnings before, for the simple reason that they have, more or less continuously since 2001. I haven't read the report in question, so am in no position to critique the content, but to his credit Lindsay David of LF Economics has previously made predictions that are specific, measurable and time-bound, and so his predictions can be judged accordingly. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Co-author Philip Soos has nothing if not longevity, rolling out his crash predictions for such a long period of time that they are threatening to see off their fifth Prime Ministerial term of office (his views were expressed in some detail in the piece "Bubbling Over: The End of Australia's $2 Trillion Housing Party" which predicted a 40 per cent crash for housing values nationally). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The last time anyone bothered to check the value of Australian dwelling stock had swelled to $5.8 trillion with the latest available data implying that $6 trillion is a shoo-in, probably before the end of the calendar year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/30/Resi1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/30/Resi1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>To be fair, on the one hand dwelling prices have indeed corrected sharply in any number of mining towns and regions: Gladstone, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Dysart, and Moranbah spring to mind, and no doubt there are plenty of others. On the other hand figures released by Residex at the end of last week showed that Sydney's median house price has increased from $668,000 at the end of 2010 to $1,058,500 by the end of October 2015, an increase of more than 58 per cent or nearly $400,000. Buried under the emotive rhetoric Soos has made a number of robust arguments, in particular the illusory nature of housing shortages, which are seemingly apparent when the economy is humming along, but can wondrously vanish into thin air when market downturns happen. These simple points highlight the perennial challenges facing macro property market research reports and forecasts: market timing and granularity.</div>
 Timing <div>While macro research can identify downside risks and probabilities, history suggests that it is very difficult to forecast housing markets accurately over any meaningul time horizon.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator">
Famously Case &amp; Shiller called the US real estate bubble in July 2003 when its index read 142.99, yet the index ran all the way to 206.52 in July 2006 before reversing all the way back from whence it came to 134.07 in March 2012 (the latest Case-Shiller reading in 2015 showed the index to be 28 percent above the level it was tracking at the time of the original bubble call, while homeowners have continued to benefit from housing services throughout).
</div>
 <div>
There would be similar tales in Northern Ireland where average house prices all but tripled from £88,000 to £226,000 between 2002 and 2007 before crashing all the way back to £125,000. An obvious bubble, sure, but the timing was difficult (if not impossible) to pick. The average price today has increased again to £162,000, approaching double the average house price in 2002.
</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/11/30/Ireland.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/30/Ireland.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In London we have heard crash predictions for at least the past decade-and-a-half, while despite downturns and recessions house prices in some boroughs have tripled...and still there has been no crash.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/30/London.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/30/London.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>
Few would disagree that parts of Australia's housing market are seriously expensive, but timing the downturns is rarely as easy as it appears in hindisght. 
</div>
<div>
Granularity 
</div>
<div>The state level data shows that since September 2011, New South Wales (+57 per cent) and Victoria (+23 per cent) have accounted for 80 per cent of the increase in the total value of dwelling stock, while the figures for the June 2015 quarter showed that prices are declining in Western Australia and the Northern Territory.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click to enlarge</div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/30/Resi2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The obvious point here being that there is no "Australian property market", rather a series of sub-markets which cover 9.6 million dwellings and demonstrate very different characteristics and fundamentals. Having observed the history of bubble predictions Scott Sumner once concluded that:  "If we notice market movements that seem to align with our initial forecasts we tend to pat ourselves on the back and assume the forecasts were correct. This is one of many cognitive biases that human beings are prone to. Pay no attention to bubble forecasts. They are useless. Indeed the entire bubble concept is useless." <div> </div>
<div>Risk markets</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Last year Soos wrote that due to it having the strongest yields Darwin has the smallest property bubble, a theory which might hold some sway in an academic vacuum, but shows a worrying lack of understanding of the real world and what caused the Top End's housing boom in the first place. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, in my opinion at any rate, Darwin appears to be the capital city with by far the greatest risk of a genuine price crash, with rents now in freefall and vacancy rates rising sharply (cf. the illusory supply shortage identified by Soos himself). </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/30/SQM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/30/SQM.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Thin property markets such as Darwin with a relatively small population are more prone to shifts in dynamics at the margin, and as population growth switches into reverse gear by the end of this calendar year the results to the downside could be spectacular. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Other high risk markets include any number of regional areas with a residual resources capex footprint, with mining capex now collapsing, while parts of inner city Melbourne and Brisbane are suffering from overbuilding of new apartments, with APRA's lending crackdown set to leave many off-the-plan buyers short. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even within capital city markets there are sub-markets which can be expected to experience diverging fortunes. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>For example, with the population still expanding rapidly, Sydney has a number of inner city markets for which demand is so high that any correction in prices will be met by a wave of new buyers. On the other hand, price inflation in some of the outer western Sydney locations over the past few years has been so far beyond absurd that even a 40 per cent correction might represent a neutral scenario.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Property Observer recently reported on the report by LF Economics comparing Australia's housing market to a Ponzi scheme, which you can read here.</div>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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Forecasting real estate myths: Pete Wargent

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Now, if you are not a believer in being prepared and you don't feel that the property market will drop; put that coffee mug away. Click back to your Facebook page. Danger, read this at your own peril.
For the rest of us, it's time to pour ourselves a fresh cup of coffee, and look at the property market trends. Trends that we have been discussing for over 12 months now, and have been preparing our readers for: i.e. the changes in market forces.
Here we are, moving into 2016 and again, economists with invested interest in the property market continue to spruik the “steady property growth” in Sydney and the “she’ll be right” lines.
Our readers, followers and clients, on the other hand have been preparing for the reality of what is about to “slap” many economists in the proverbial face and a lot of investors, rip holes in their back pockets.
Sydney Property Snapshot: Auction Result Saturday 30 January 2016
There are a number of key take-aways from the transaction report or “on the market history” shown above (Source CoreLogic RPData). I will concentrate on three of these as follows.
<ul>
<li>Vendor's &amp; Agent's Expectations:</li>
</ul>
We may on the one hand say, vendor’s expectations were being fueled by the main-stream-media’s property reports, coupled with the crazy prices being paid by our friendly Chinese investors and home grown investors wanting to jump on the "Gravy Train".
Expectations also adding to real estate agent's promises of achieving high prices.
Prices again being fueled by buyer's fear of missing out, coupled with the notion of huge under-supply as well as beliefs of  “not enough land”. Then there are the ongoing beliefs of: high migration intake and that "interest rates won’t go up anytime soon: therefore, commit now". My favorite "HUGE rental squeeze".
The above mentioned beliefs as you well guessed, primed the market and created a foundation for this property bubble. A foundation that supported the comparable sales in the area, in most instances; prices that reflected the initial “Above $730K” prices being advertised i.e. the prices being paid at the height of the market.
<ul>
<li>Agent’s Marketing &amp; Sales Strategy:</li>
</ul>
The main strategy I want to review, is the one carried out by the second agency. In simple language: “what the hell were they thinking in taking the property to auction” and for a second time?
I can only say; yes, I’m sure the vendor is now conditioned and perhaps even bullied into being a “motivated vendor”.
<ul>
<li>Drops and Market Conditions:</li>
</ul>
However, we can see on the surface by the evidence presented in the recent auction reports, vendors are moving into very precarious territory when taking property to auction on an agent’s ‘whim’. And, you have to be careful who you appoint as the real estate agent and the auctioneer, if that is the method you are told is the best way to sell your home.
Again, the table above shows two key points: the first, the drop in asking to highest bid value and the second, the number of days on the market.
The passed-in bid, is reported to be $650,000 by the second agent. A significant drop and contrary to the first agent's initial asking price which was for: offers above $730,000. WOW ...
We can see a significant drop of willingness for people to commit now. A difference of almost -12% from the height of the market in 2015, to now. But, there is more room for a further drop.
I point out; we are only a month into 2016.There will be more carnage to come. Carnage that will take out many vendors that are not vigilant.
For Now: Is it a matter of...
<ol start="1">
<li>Signs of the times?</li>
<li>Real Estate Agent's flawed marketing strategy?</li>
<li>Auctioneer's ignorance? OR</li>
<li>All of the above?</li>
</ol>
More than ever before, I urge you as vendors and agents; do your homework. Ask yourselves as agents, the fundamental question which is pertinent to obtaining the best price for your client: is an auction campaign still the best way forward, for your vendor?
Vendors, again more than ever, be proactive and ask the agent about the number of registered bidders leading up to the auction day. If none are registered then ask whether you should still be going to auction. Meet the auctioneer and ensure they go through the property, days before the actual auction date that is.
Most of all vendors, do not be afraid to question the agent's reasoning for the marketing strategy they want you to embark on. It may well cost you 10's to 100's of thousands of dollars, if you don't.
EDWIN ALMEIDA is licensee in charge of <a href="https://www.just-think.com.au/" target="_blank">Just Think Real Estate</a>.<a href="https://www.just-thin.com.au/"> </a>
He is also the creator of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/JustThinkProperty" target="_blank">Oz Real Estate.TV</a> and a presenter for <a href="https://propertyinvestingvault.com/" target="_blank">propertyinvestingvault.com</a>.
 
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Predictions to rip a hole in your back pocket: Edwin Almeida

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Entering the property market is a tough gig for first home buyers, especially when faced with competition from buyers who hold larger buying budgets, some of which has been accrued from property equity earned as a result of recent strong capital gains.  
While home value rises have been moderate over recent years outside of Sydney and Melbourne, it provides little comfort for first home buyers in the two largest cities who struggle to compete with those that already own homes.
In 2008, combined capital city home values fell by -6.1 percent in the space of 9 months. By the end of the year, home values had reached and began to climb further thereafter. 
<a href="/images/2016/05/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-26%20at%203.35.10%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/05/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-26%20at%203.35.10%20PM.png" alt="">
The growth drivers largely came from two forms of stimulus: aggressive interest rate cuts and a boost to the First Home Owners Grant (FHOG). Since the removal of the FHOG boost and scaling back and complete removal of others, first home buyers have continued to languish at near record-low levels.
The increase in home values across each capital city from December 2008 to April 2016 can be seen in the first of the adjacent charts. Another way to think about this is that if in December 2008 you owned a home worth $500,000 it is now worth $758,418 which is $258,418 more than in December 2008. Looking at this same calculation across each capital city, the increases in value over that time based on a $500,000 home owned in December 2008 are: Sydney ($400,825), Melbourne ($338,866), Brisbane ($73,417), Adelaide ($81,029), Perth ($64,096), Hobart ($11,263), Darwin ($109,293) and Canberra ($126,262).
The data clearly shows that the value property for home owners has undergone some massive rises, the increase in inflation and wages has been comparatively more sedate. 
Although combined capital city home values have increased by 51.7 percent between December 2008 and April 2016, inflation has increased by a significantly lower 17.1 percent over the period. CPI has increased by a greater amount than values in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Hobart indicating ‘real’ home values have fallen. Meanwhile in Sydney, Melbourne, Darwin and Canberra CPI growth has lagged that of home value growth. 
Looking at wages growth between December 2008 and March 2016, the data shows that nationally, and in New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT, it has lagged value growth across the capital cities; wages are now growing at their slowest pace in at least 18 years. 
While the increases highlighted include strong wage increases in the latter part of the mining boom, nonetheless, it shows that in NSW and Vic wages are increasing at a much slower pace than home values in Sydney and Melbourne are. 
The last chart shows the change in the value of new lending (excluding refinances) to investors, owner occupier first home buyers and subsequent buyers between December 2008 and March 2016, and highlights how the value of lending to owner occupier first home buyers is now lower than it was in December 2008 across each state and territory. 
This has occurred despite the increase in home values over the timeframe.
While lending to owner occupier first home buyers has fallen, lending to investors and subsequent buyers has increased in most states and territories with substantial rises in NSW and Vic.
Outside of Sydney and Melbourne home values have increased below or at a similar pace to inflation and wages, however, it is a very different story in the two largest capital cities where existing Sydney and Melbourne home owners have seen significant increases in the ‘real’ value of their home.
Those that do not yet own a property will struggle to compete with investors and upgraders who have been active in the market and where significant equity has been acquired.
<a href="/images/2016/05/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-26%20at%203.36.10%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/05/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-26%20at%203.36.10%20PM.png" alt="">
The simple answer for first home buyers, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, is to look to buy properties outside of these cities however, that may seem a little simplistic given jobs creation has not been as strong outside of Sydney and Melbourne and for many moving interstate, employment opportunities are generally a big decision.
Even buying outside of Sydney in nearby regional cities may not be attractive because transport infrastructure does not provide quick and efficient access to Sydney and Melbourne from nearby regional cities. 
Whatever the outcome, we certainly don’t advocate for the return of grants for first home buyers as they have tended to just push up the cost of housing.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Investors and owner occupiers keeping first home buyers out of market: CoreLogic RP Data's Cameron Kusher

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Christmas always puts a deadline on things. For Property Bloom this year it's completing four development projects before the big man with the white beard arrives.
Of course our builder and all their tradies are under the pump at this time of year and our job as project managers really comes into play.
Our goal is not only to have the dwellings completed with Occupation Certificates (OCs) issued, but also tenanted before Christmas. And I've found a way to achieve this.
It's called supporting your site manager.
Rather than micro manage our site managers which just drives people crazy, we try to help them by giving them a hand. They feel supported and at the end of the day, we are all on the same team striving for the same result: Happy clients.
Here's an example. I'm doing two Practical Completion (PC) inspections this week and I have a tool I'm going to take along that should help. It's a bottle of Spray and Wipe.
Because we are pushing the process, we'll often get asked to move the PC date so they can be completely ready. But I don't want to give our builder another few days. Because right now, we literally don't have them.
We want tenants settled in before Christmas, we need the properties to look their best because on the same day we do our PC inspection, our appointed property manager will be taking photos and uploading the properties onto the Internet. This way we can advertise for tenants during the PC and Handover period.
The Handover period is the time after PC when the builder has seven days to complete any outstanding items we've picked up and before the bank pays the builder's final drawdown. Once the builder receives their payment, they release the keys to the owner and the dwellings come off construction key. That is literally the Handover date and of course a tenant can't move in before Handover.
Once asked to pay the final invoice, the bank typically take about a week, sometimes longer to send their valuer to check construction has been completed then transfer the money to the builder.  Before they release the final payment, they will have conditions such as receiving a copy of the OCs, and a copy of a building insurance policy in the name of the owners. 
This week or two is valuable and we use it to show potential tenants and hold open homes. We can do this because we have a great relationship with out builder and they will allow access BEFORE Handover. That's pretty unusual for a builder. But it means tenants are lined up as keys are handed over, which results in zero vacancy time for our clients.
So back to the PC inspection. My theory is that we set a date for PC and we do all we can to get the project to that stage. By having a deadline, more action is taken. I've found that there ends up being only minor items to attend to if any at all, because the site manager has done all he could to meet the deadline.
Short of bringing a pair of white gloves, I am fussy at these inspections. But some things just need a bit of elbow grease. So the bottle of Spray and Wipe comes out and we can clean the spots as we go through the property. It's so much easier than adding it to a list and having to wait for cleaners to come back. Of course I do draw the line at mopping floors, but small marks can easily be removed along with the fine layer of dust that always seems to settle on the kitchen benches a day after the construction clean is done.
I'm looking forward to Christmas this year but there's still a bit of work to be finished before the champagne is poured and prawns are peeled. 
Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.
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Countdown to construction completion: Jo Chivers

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There were 2,948 auctions held across the combined capital cities this week, with a preliminary auction clearance rate of 59.3%. 
Last week, a clearance rate of 57.3% was recorded across 3,252 capital city auctions, the lowest clearance rate since February 2013. At the same time last year, both auction volumes and the auction clearance rate were stronger, with a clearance rate of 65.5% across 3,511 residential auctions.
<a href="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Capital-city.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Capital-city.jpg" alt="" width="754" height="568">
 
Across Melbourne, 1,561 homes were taken to auction this week, compared to 1,622 last week, while the clearance rate strengthened slightly to 65.7%, up from 63.3% over the previous week. Looking back at last year, a clearance rate of 68.6 per cent was recorded across 1,585 auctions. Of the 9 individual Melbourne sub-regions, this week the strongest performer, in terms of clearance rate was the Inner South region. So far, CoreLogic RP Data has collected 193 results for the region and the preliminary result shows 72.5 per cent of these auctions were successful.
<a href="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Melbourne.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Melbourne.jpg" alt="" width="849" height="569">
 
In Sydney, 869 auctions were held this week, down from 1,070 over the previous week. The preliminary clearance rate of 55.2 per cent is an improvement, compared to last week, when the final auction clearance rate for the city was 52.9 per cent, the lowest clearance rate Sydney has seen since December 2012. Despite the slight strengthening over the week, Sydney’s current clearance rate remains significantly lower than one year ago, when a clearance rate of 69.8 per cent was recorded across 1,357 auctions. Looking at the sub-regions of Sydney, the Inner West region recorded the strongest clearance rate of 74.6 per cent across 55 auctions, while the Inner South West region had the highest volume of auctions (126).
<a href="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Sydney.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Sydney.jpg" alt="" width="849" height="573">
Brisbane was host to 180 auctions this week and so far 126 results have been reported, with a preliminary success rate of 46 per cent. Last week, auction volumes across the city were higher with 203 auctions held and a clearance rate of 42.2 per cent. Unlike Brisbane, the number of homes taken to auction this week increased across the Gold Coast with 87 properties scheduled for auction this week, compared to 66 last week. Of the 52 results reported so far, 36.5 per cent were successful.
<a href="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Brisbane.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Brisbane.jpg" alt="" width="818" height="546">
 
Adelaide recorded a clearance rate of 51.6 per cent across 151 auctions this week, down from a stronger 60 per cent across 138 auctions last week. At the same time last year, 171 homes were taken to auction, with 55.7 per cent recording a successful result.
<a href="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Adelaide.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Adelaide.jpg" alt="" width="799" height="542">
 
In Perth, 58 auctions took place this week, with 25 results reported so far. Perth’s preliminary clearance rate of 40 per cent across these reported results is higher than both last week’s result (36 per cent) and the clearance rate from one year ago (22.5 per cent).
Canberra’s preliminary auction clearance rate of 48.6 per cent this week is lower than last week, when the final auction clearance rate was 57.5 per cent, and also lower than the 56.9 per cent recorded last year.
There were 17 Tasmanian auctions held this week. So far 10 results have been reported with 2 sales.
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Preliminary clearance rate strengthens: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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When I keep thinking about the possible ramifications with Bill Shorten’s tax reform announcements I shake my head with utter disbelief – this is just plain dumb policy. Since the mining boom collapsed property has been a major shining light for the Australian economy.
By announcing that from July 1, 2017 negative gearing will only apply to new properties, the argument that 93 per cent of negative gearing goes to existing properties is a flawed one. Many suburbs see very few new developments each year so it’s those existing properties that add equilibrium to keeping rents competitive.
It should also be noted that it was not mentioned that with the new properties that there would be no adjustments to the previous Labor policy in 2008 that permits 100 per cent of off – the – plan purchases to foreign owners. What we are seeing today is new developments being offered off shore and many properties never hit the local market with many of these properties being land banked. It should also be legislated that all off – the – plan foreign purchases must be rented out with all properties that are currently land banked to be issued with a divestment order unless they are rented out.
What I believe will happen with negative gearing is that we will see a cap put on the number of properties that are allowed to be claimed as well as a limit to annual tax deductions that can be claimed. In the meantime one could expect property investors to be front and centre in the markets prior to the upcoming Budget announcements.
It is becoming pretty obvious that it will be some time before the Australian budget gets itself back in the black – more particularly now that an increase to the GST has been formally pooh – poohed.
Instead of looking at increasing taxes maybe the federal Government would be better suited to looking at what it can do with its massive property portfolio to pay down more debt. The Australian Government is the largest property landlord in Australia with property holdings across the country.
HMAS Penguin for example which occupies some prime Middle Harbour front land is just one of thousands of examples of land that could be put to much better economic use. Now before you start yelling and screaming all I am saying is that the federal Government should be taking a closer look at its property portfolio with a view to possibly cashing – in. The NSW Government has been active over the past few years selling off Housing Commission properties that has eventuated in quadrupling budget expectations on the likely market values.
Australia’s population hit 24,000,000 this week so it makes plenty of sense to start a conversation on how our cities are going to cope with this rapid expansion. Public golf courses will come under huge pressure to remain with their respective land values going through the roof. Although before we see those being developed the federal Government has thousands and thousands of hectares of vacant land sitting idle.
No doubt some will say it’s time to put Australia’s land resources to better and more practical use and many will say it should remain as it is. One would have to admit that it would be an interesting debate. The Australian population clock now adds one extra person to our population every one minute and 31 seconds. On top of that we also have record net overseas migration. Our population growth is now higher than that of Indonesia.
The reality is that we need to start developing more land, so that conversation should start with Australia’s biggest landlord.
No time like the present to start this long overdue conversation.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 79
• Number of houses on the market last week – 53
• Number of houses on the market this week – 59
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 52
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 46 • Number of apartments on the market this week – 44
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 8
• Number of houses on the market last week – 17
• Number of houses on the market this week – 18
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 19
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 17
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 22
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 5
• Number of houses on the market last week – 9
•Number of houses on the market this week – 7
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 38
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 27
*Number of apartments on the market this week – 28
 
 ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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Property is the gift that keeps on giving: Robert Simeon

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A defining feature of 2016 was that knowing where NOT to buy became as important as where to buy.
Until recently, for investors it’s simply been a matter of buying in the places where prices were rising, mainly Sydney and Melbourne.  For most of the past 3-4 years, it’s felt as if owning real estate anywhere in the two biggest cities was a guarantee of capital growth.
As we contemplate 2017, buyers need to be lot more particular about their choice of location. Now, more than any time in the past four years, there’s a real prospect of losing money if you choose badly. Next year my No Go Zones report will be as important as the Best Buys report.
And the key factor in that equation is oversupply, specifically for apartments in specific locations. Both Sydney and Melbourne, as well as other parts of Australia, have locations I classify as “danger markets”.
And it’s clear that people are already choosing badly.
CoreLogic has published a report which was designed as the most popular places to buy but which, inadvertently, served as a de facto No Go Zones report. It highlighted most of the worst places to buy in the nation.
The fact that these were the most popular places for buyers, based on the number of sales in the past 12 months, just shows how bad real estate consumers are when it comes to choosing location - and how little research some people do before committing big money.
According to CoreLogic, the most popular market in Australia is the Surfers Paradise apartment market (1,616 sales in the past 12 months), followed by the Melbourne CBD apartment market (1,296). 
I’m trying to think of a worse place to buy real estate in the major population centres of Australia, but there are few I can think of. The only real contenders would be the inner-city apartment markets in Perth and Brisbane.
The Brisbane CBD also makes the Top 10 list of most popular places to buy apartments in Australia, alongside the CBD, Southbank and South Yarra in Melbourne, four highrise locations on the Gold Coast, the Adelaide CBD and Dee Why in Sydney.
Not all of those locations are absolute duds but most of them are.
You have to wonder about the thought processes behind buying an apartment in Surfers Paradise. Of the major markets around Australia, there are few with a worse track record on capital growth. The median price today is lower than it was 10 years ago. Very few locations have a record so bad.
Of course, a poor past record doesn’t disqualify a location from the prospect of future growth – but there needs to be evidence that something has changed, or will change to turn the situation around.
But the situation with the high-rise suburbs of the Gold Coast is not changing. It’s situation normal – developers going overboard and building too many apartments. The Gold Coast economy is currently strong and there is growth to be found in the city’s real estate market – but not in the high-rise suburbs, where developers are determined to repeat history through overbuilding, in the belief they can make sales by marketing to poorly-researched investors interstate and overseas.
In the Melbourne CBD, the median apartment price is lower than it was a year ago and three years ago, and about the same as it was five years ago. Is anything set to change? Yes, but not for the better. Massive oversupply will cause vacancies to rise, with rents and property values falling.
Ditto near-city locations like Southbank.
So, as a guide for consumers on where to buy, this list is worse than useless – it’s dangerous.
There’s a different look about the list of Top 10 most popular places for house sales, but as a guide for buyers it also has little value. It consists of new suburbs on the periphery of Melbourne where lots of new homes are being built and three NSW regional cities which are treated as a single suburb, rather than being diverted into individual suburbs like most cities.
So, again, meaningless information of no value to serious investors.
Sadly, many investors employ the “me too” research method. If everyone’s doing it, it must be right. Right?
Those who apply that method after reading these lists, especially the Top 10 list for apartments, run the risk of losing serious money.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Where not to buy property: Terry Ryder

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There are two sides to a trade.
If you are buying an investment someone is selling it.
Ask yourself, then, a simple question: why are they selling?
It might be for personal reasons. 
They could be selling some shares before financial year end to reduced a tax liability, for example.  
Or it might be for another genuine reason.
In the property markets, vendors often sell an apartment because they want to trade up and move into a house. 
Or, maybe, they don't like the investment as much as you think you do, and that's why they selling.  
Group think
Group think can be dangerous.
When everyone is piling into an asset class or certain investment, this may not be a great sign for future returns.
Try to become a contrary thinker.  
This is not necessarily a skill you are born with, but it can certainly become a learned habit over time.
Question everything - not to the point of inaction, or sleepless nights - but don't simply blindly trust widely held beliefs. 
Try to think of counter-arguments your investment decision, or list potentially dissenting views. 
Think of some worst case scenarios, and what you would do or feel if they played out. 
Asymmetric information 
Could the seller know more than you?
Real estate is an imperfect market which offers amazing opportunities to buy below market value or add value. 
But asymmetric information is a common hurdle that needs to be overcome via thorough market research. 
Almost by definition, the vendor of a property tends to know more about the potential problems and challenges than the buyer.
In the share markets insider information is also rife.
People often like to think they know more than the market, but the truth is, they often don't.
Therefore, before you pull the trigger on an investment, think to yourself:
"Why are they selling?"
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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Why are they selling? Pete Wargent

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The Sydney auction market is cooling as finance is harder to come by, especially for investors and those wanting to use interest-only loans.
The preliminary clearance rate reported by Domain was a shade under 70 percent - now tracking well below the frenzied peak - while CoreLogic put the preliminary figure a but higher at 73 percent.
The median auction price for houses was $1,515,500, some $142,500 or 10.4 percent higher than on the same weekend last year.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/26/SYDNEY.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/26/SYDNEY.jpg" alt="">
Similarly the median auction price for units was up by $76,000 or 8.6 percent from the same weekend last year to $955,000. 
Overall the median price of $1,335,000 was the third highest on record. 
Return of the first homebuyer
A factor skewing the median price higher was that some first homebuyers are reportedly sitting on the sidelines until next weekend when the new incentives will have kicked in post-July 1.
From next week, therefore, there may be some renewed upwards pressure on entry level stock priced up to around $800,000. 
Overall, though, the credit squeeze has changed the dynamic of the market considerably, and price pressure is easing. 
In some inner suburbs such as Erskineville, Glebe, Enmore, Newtown, Haberfield, Darlinghurst, Surry Hills, Redfern, and Pyrmont I've already noted a looming shortage of rentals, with vacancy rates sinking to as close to zero as you'll ever see.
Sydney is having an absolute shocker at the moment with its traffic congestion, partly due to the disruption caused by the light rail construction. 
Therefore it's no surprise that areas experiencing a rental shortage are those with great city access.
It's a different story for some of the suburbs where commuters need to drive into the city for work.
Over the next year as investors are increasingly squeezed out of the market there will likely be an increasing number of news stories reporting a Sydney rental crisis, at least for certain locations and sought-after property types. 
Contrast these tight rental markets with the overbuilding and homogeneous glut of rentals on Sydney's city fringe, 60 kilometres to the south west. 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/">blogger</a>.
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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Sydney auction market cooling as finance harder to come by

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Here’s the dumbest question an investor can ask: is this a good time to buy real estate?
The question shows a fundamental and dangerous lack of understanding about property.
A much smarter question is: WHERE is it a good time to buy real estate? Because in a nation as large and as diverse as Australia, at any point in time it’s a good time to buy somewhere. The trick is finding those locations where it’s opportune to buy.
I find myself constantly explaining to consumers that there is no such creature as “the Australian property market”. People think there is because the media keeps telling them there is, aided and abetted by economists who see everything nationally.
The headlines keep proclaiming that “Australian property prices” are falling, because those who think nationally describe housing market growth or decline with a single figure to measure the entire nation.
It’s a ludicrous proposition and one that misleads and misinforms consumers.
So here we are again at the start of a new year and it’s opportune once again to tell people that the essence of success in property investment is understanding that we don’t have one market in Australia.
We have lots of markets and your objective is to avoid the ones which are in decline and locate the ones that are rising or will soon do so.
Fortunately, this is not difficult – so long as you can kick the newspaper reading habit and conduct proper research and acquire real knowledge.
If you’re willing and able to do that, you’ll be miles ahead of the herd and one of the relatively few who will succeed in this business.
If you’ve been searching for predictions on likely outcomes in 2019 – and you’ve been using mainstream media as your primary source – you’ll be massively confused and misinformed, because newspapers and other tabloid media like the ABC have featured only those who have forecast major and widespread price decline.
The vast majority of forecasters – the calm, sensible, rational ones like BIS, Domain, SQM Research, Propertyology and most of the major lenders – have predicted fairly optimistic outcomes in 2019 and 2020. But few of the major newspapers have published their forecasts.
A common theme among the credible forecasters is that Sydney and Melbourne will bottom out in the middle of 2019 and gradually return to moderate price growth, while the smaller capital cities will show growth this year ranging from moderate to strong.
Very few bother with the regions – which is a shame because the biggest price growth in 2018 was in regional areas and this is likely to be the case again in 2019.
One who does look at the regions as well as the capital cities and presents sensible forecasts based on research is Simon Pressley of Propertyology.
Like Louis Christopher of SQM Research, Pressley presents three scenarios in his forecasting, which relate to different outcomes with the lending environmental.
His scenario which assumes lenders returning to “sensible credit policies” in the first quarter of the year (which I think is likely) has Hobart again leading the capital cities on price growth, with rises of up to 10%.
He sees Perth making a solid recovery, with house prices up by between 4% and 7%. He also expects Canberra, Adelaide and Brisbane to be good markets with price growth up to 5-6%.
He expects Melbourne to bottom out during with the year, with only moderate price decline, and Sydney falling a further 3-6%.
I note that Domain published broadly similar forecasts for 2019 recently and I think Pressley is pretty much on the mark, although I think Adelaide will do better than he predicts and that Hobart growth will be less, because I think that market is past its peak. 
Propertyology believes regional centres in the resources states Western Australia and Queensland will be among the best-performing markets this year. Pressley suggests the Sunshine Coast and Cairns will lead in Queensland, with big improvement also in Townsville, Mackay, Rockhampton and Toowoomba.
In WA he likes Albany, Busselton and Margaret River, with Pilbara towns strong also. As always, I urge caution with any market where the mining sector dominates the local economy.
In regional NSW he likes Wagga Wagga, Armidale, Tamworth, Bathurst, Parkes and Muswellbrook, while in regional Victoria he favours Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton, Warrnambool and Bairnsdale.
I can’t disagree with much of that. Propertyology and Hotspotting use different methodologies but we often arrive at the same conclusions.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
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