<p>An entity directed by HSN's Rafi Assouline and Rebel Property's Allen Linz has filed plans for an impressive new precinct in Woolloomooloo.</p>

<p>The major mixed-use development would transform a prominent William Street site into a new residential village anchored by affordable housing and a large public park.</p>

<p>The proposal, submitted as a State Significant Development Application, covers 164-172 and 174-194 William Street, a 6,398 sqm site between Forbes Street and Dowling Street on the southern edge of Woolloomooloo.</p>

<p>Designed by fjcstudio in collaboration with Bangawarra, Studio Bright and Tribe Studio Architects, the scheme would deliver 227 apartments across four residential buildings ranging in height up to 18 storeys, alongside retail space, public domain improvements and a new publicly accessible park.</p>

<p><img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0eb59b7c-914a-4a5c-b849-3a56749f5e93" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.18.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=mxM6EEqeoLjrCiTlCzTKTvzpKuh6kSkH" /></p>

<p>It's another design scheme for Rebel, who took <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-rebel-property-group-takes-woolloomooloo-precinct-to-nsw-government">concept plans to the NSW Gov late last year</a>.</p>

<p>The latest plans will be a mix of 167 build-to-sell apartments and 60 affordable apartments, with the affordable housing component representing 15 per cent of the project's gross floor area. The apartment mix includes 12 one-bedroom, 53 two-bedroom, 89 three-bedroom apartments and 13 penthouses, while the affordable housing component would comprise 42 one-bedroom and 18 two-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3b3d4553-8a8c-4af5-aa8c-519ffb1e28c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.12%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_Yb6ibN7eDnOtQjCNDK2eviORa4qzgv." /></p>

<p>Rebel Property is seeking to take advantage of the NSW Government's infill affordable housing bonus provisions under the Housing SEPP, which provide additional floor space and height in exchange for the delivery of affordable housing for a minimum of 15 years. The planning pathway allows a 30 per cent increase in floor space ratio and building height where 15 per cent of the development is dedicated to affordable housing.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the centre of the development is a 1,356 sqm sunlit public park designed to become a new community gathering space at the gateway to Woolloomooloo. The park would be complemented by a network of pedestrian laneways connecting William Street with the surrounding streets, improving permeability through what is currently a largely impermeable block.</p>

<p><img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="257af931-a393-4007-8c6d-7219796df58d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=KAHy94GrhaReFsWTGDKfy39EDJ8gEEv4" /></p>

<p>The design team says the public domain has been heavily influenced by the site's topography and Aboriginal cultural heritage, drawing on the escarpments, gullies and landscape characteristics that historically defined the area before urbanisation. The landscape design has been developed in partnership with First Nations consultancy Bangawarra.</p>

<p>The project would be delivered across four separate buildings. The William Street East and William Street West buildings, designed by fjcstudio, would contain the majority of the apartments. Melbourne-based Studio Bright has designed the Forbes Street building, while Tribe Studio Architects is responsible for the Dowling Street building.</p>

<p>Rebel had secured approval for the concept plans late last year.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look: HSN, Rebel, advances Woolloomooloo precinct plans

<p>A locally heritage-listed furniture showroom on Water Street is set to become the centrepiece of a new mixed-use residential development as local developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/keylin-group">Keylin</a> seeks approval for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lotus-on-water-street-290-water-street-fortitude-valley-qld-4006">Lotus on Water Street</a>, a 15-storey project on the Fortitude Valley side of Spring Hill.</p>

<p>The proposal spans 290 Water Street and 137-141 Warry Street, combining several properties into a 2,869 sqm site that sits between Fortitude Valley, Spring Hill and the rapidly evolving Victoria Park precinct. Keylin's plans would deliver 132 apartments alongside new retail, hospitality and commercial space, while retaining and repurposing the historic Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom that fronts Water Street.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/jackson-teece">Jackson Teece</a>, Lotus on Water Street comprises a 12-storey residential tower rising above a three-storey podium and communal rooftop terrace. The development includes 76 apartments classified as multiple dwellings and a further 56 units proposed as short-term accommodation, designed to be flexibly used as either accommodation or permanent residences. The apartment mix comprises six one-bedroom, 54 two-bedroom and 16 three-bedroom homes.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9822bb79-6c49-49c9-95ba-319e8c8d81c3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20front.png?VersionId=ioW8zbN4UVebbLetTFuv92t.HkdgfR5e" /></p>

<p>Residents would have access to an extensive rooftop recreation level spanning more than 1,200 sqm of communal open space. Plans include a pool, gym, sauna, infrared sauna, yoga area, library, private dining room, barbecue facilities and landscaped entertainment spaces, making the rooftop the project's largest shared amenity offering.</p>

<p>At street level, the proposal focuses on the adaptive reuse of the heritage buildings along Water Street, where 518 sqm of retail and commercial space is planned across shop, office and food and drink outlet uses. A permeable residential lobby would be positioned between the retained heritage buildings, creating a pedestrian connection between the historic streetscape and the new tower behind.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="269cf3e0-7d13-48bf-a318-05a00deb5c10" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20podium.png?VersionId=DLXmTCLsp6GOcLpQ0h.0z7wKCw59EhN_" /></p>

<p>The heritage retention strategy is central to the scheme. The development application notes that the Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom and adjoining heritage buildings will remain, with only non-significant structures on the site earmarked for removal under a previously issued Heritage Exemption Certificate. Levels one and two of the new podium are recessed behind the heritage façades to maintain their prominence within the streetscape.</p>

<p>Jackson Teece has drawn inspiration from the site's manufacturing history when designing the podium. The planning documents state that the façade incorporates perforated metal screening that references the woven and rattan furniture historically produced on the site. Cascading and climbing plants are integrated throughout the podium to soften the building's presentation and screen parking levels behind. The landscape strategy also informs the project's name, Lotus on Water Street, drawing on the historic Spring Hollow waterholes that once ran through Spring Hill and the blue water lilies associated with Meeanjin, Brisbane's traditional name.</p>

<p>The proposal also incorporates the neighbouring property at 141 Warry Street, currently occupied by a healthcare service. The existing building would remain, with nine dedicated parking spaces allocated within the new development to support its ongoing operation. In total, Lotus on Water Street proposes 117 car spaces, including 110 resident spaces and seven visitor bays, alongside 100 bicycle spaces.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="70cf07bc-4fd8-4e70-92dd-be8b21c4e4f0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20site.png?VersionId=txlxrJImM0Sm_vTzHVKh5DDUkyL_CiiA" /></p>

<p>The site sits within the Spring Hill East Precinct of the Spring Hill Neighbourhood Plan and is positioned around 650 metres from both Fortitude Valley Station and Exhibition Station. It is also within walking distance of the King Street precinct, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Herston Quarter and Victoria Park, which is earmarked to become a major venue precinct ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.</p>

<p>Planning documents describe the location as a key gateway between Spring Hill and Fortitude Valley and highlight the area's increasing importance as new transport infrastructure and Olympic-related investment reshape Brisbane's inner north. The development team argues the project will contribute additional housing supply while activating a section of Water Street that has historically received less investment than other parts of the Valley.</p>

<p>Keylin has become increasingly active across Brisbane and southeast Queensland, assembling sites in strategic inner-city locations. They are currently selling and delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/oria-spring-hill-447-gregory-terrace-spring-hill-qld-4000">Oria Spring Hill</a>, just over 140 apartments due for completion in 2027.</p>


Keylin plans heritage-led Lotus on Water Street apartment development in Fortitude Valley

<p>Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.</p>

<p>The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.</p>

<p>One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.</p>

<p>"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.</p>

<p>"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]</p>

<p>The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.</p>

<p>PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.</p>

<p>"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]</p>

<p>Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.</p>

<p>Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.</p>

<p>The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.</p>

<p>"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.</p>

<p>"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]</p>

<p>Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.</p>

<p>Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]</p>


Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

<p>Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.</p>

<p>The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]</p>

<p>“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.</p>

<p>The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]</p>

<p>“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.</p>

<p>“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]</p>

<p>Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.</p>

<p>Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.</p>

<p>The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.</p>

<p>LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.</p>

<p>Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]</p>


Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

<p>Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?</p>

<p>Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.</p>

<p>NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.</p>

<p>“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.</p>

<p>"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.</p>

<p>Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.</p>

<p>“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”</p>

<p>Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.</p>

<p>“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”</p>

<p>She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.</p>

<p>“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”</p>


Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

Property investment

<html><body>
<p><span>The APRA-FRBA regulator-driven slower investor lending, and separate curbs on offshore property investment options for wealthy visa holders, could slow house price growth and put pressure an already weak economy, Morgan Stanley analysts suggest. </span></p>
<p><span>The measures could hit the fragile economy's only bright spot of housing construction and property-related confidence, Ewa Turek, Sze Chuah and Terry Yuan wrote in a recent research note.</span></p>
<p><span>"In the past month, new regulation has been put in place that will temper demand from two key marginal buyers of property," the analysts said.</span></p>
<p><span>"While the intended impact of these regulations is to curb investor lending, the risk is that they will be too successful. A deceleration in property prices could put pressure on an already weak economy; firstly, through a slowing in housing activity as fewer building approvals are converted to starts, and secondly, via a deterioration in consumer sentiment and spending."</span></p>
<p><span>Any slowdown could damage confidence, the Morgan Stanley analysts said.  </span></p>
<p><span>"House prices and consumer sentiment are strongly correlated (due to the large cohort of the Australian population that owns a property)," they said, as reported in the Australian Financial Review.</span></p>
<p><span>"Even a deceleration in house price growth [that is, house prices are not falling, but just are not rising as fast as before] can start weighing on sentiment.</span></p>
<p><span>"This can become a vicious cycle until property prices bottom – as property price growth slows, sentiment deteriorates, which in turn puts further pressure on property."</span></p>
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Morgan Stanley sees APRA crackdown risks in any vicious bottoming cycle

<html><body>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Statistics fatigue</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>I've been suffering from quite heavily from a case of DSF recently - Demographic Statistics Fatigue.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After putting the data series on hold for months, the statistics bureau has been releasing monthly data in rapid-fire succession in recent weeks. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A bit like London buses, you wait seemingly ages for one to come along, and then...</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Anyway, we're nearly up to speed now with the May 2015 <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3401.0Main+Features1May%202015?OpenDocument" target="_blank">Overseas Arrivals and Departures</a> figures having been released.</div>
<div>
<br>Rather than re-cap on old ground too much, I'll just make four short observations here, starting with...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1 - Migration slowing</span></strong></div>
<div>
<br>Firstly, net overseas migration on a rolling annual basis has continued to slow through 2015. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the economy moving through something of a sticky patch, population growth in Australia slowed from a massive 396,200 in calendar year 2013 to a somewhat more sedate 330,200 in 2014.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest figures suggest that net overseas migration into Australia will be slower again in 2015.</div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-P2laFJ2BRIQ/VbCdbx7Jo9I/AAAAAAAAXHc/vimFTm3OtTQ/s1600/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-P2laFJ2BRIQ/VbCdbx7Jo9I/AAAAAAAAXHc/vimFTm3OtTQ/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-P2laFJ2BRIQ/VbCdbx7Jo9I/AAAAAAAAXHc/vimFTm3OtTQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="286"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>While property observers in particular seem to love to see rampant headcount growth at any cost, the reduced population growth rate of 1.4 per cent that we have seen through 2014 has had one major benefit in particular.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And that benefit is that over past year the economy has been stacking on new jobs faster - much faster - than the rate of population growth - with an employment growth rate of 1.9 per cent, or just shy of 225,000 new jobs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, since October alone the economy has added more than 205,000 new jobs, which in turn has seen the rate of total employment growth over recent months romping along at nearly <strong><em>twice </em></strong>the rate of the growth in population.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps unsurprisingly, therefore, the unemployment rate has fallen from 6.3% at the beginning of the year to 6.0 per cent.<br><br>
</div>
<div>The latest Reserve Bank Board Meeting Minutes suggested that we may even see the unemployment rate falling further from this point, thereby contradicting earlier forecasts which had expected unemployment to run up to a peak of 6.5% in this cycle.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And long may this particular dynamic continue.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>You can read more about employment growth and where it is (and isn't) taking place in Australia here. </div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">2 - Rebalancing underway</span></strong></p>
<div> </div>
<div>The Australian dollar has now declined from a mining-boom-inspired peak of around 110 US cents to below 74 cents.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It seems likely that the Aussie dollar will need to fall further too, in order to help the rebalancing of the economy.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This depreciation of the currency will have a major impact on demographic trends.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In short, fewer and fewer Aussies will be inclined to travel and holiday overseas, while more and more folk from foreign fields will see Australia as an attractive destination for a visit.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, this enormous benefit to the tourism services industry is already well underway.</div>
<div>
<br>While it may sound like jargon, the ratio of short term departures to short term arrivals has declined to its lowest level in years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In plain English, more tourists are now coming to Oz, and fewer Aussies are taking overseas trips.</div>
<p><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-amAhvKUtOUs/VbChJ_9a81I/AAAAAAAAXIE/iIONagTCWqc/s1600/a6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-amAhvKUtOUs/VbChJ_9a81I/AAAAAAAAXIE/iIONagTCWqc/s1600/a6.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-amAhvKUtOUs/VbChJ_9a81I/AAAAAAAAXIE/iIONagTCWqc/s640/a6.jpg" width="640" height="278"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Looked at another way, the number of short term arrivals into Australia has blazed well past 7 million for the first time on record.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And while the tide has only turned slowly to date, fewer Aussies are now electing to take overseas trips. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The two lines representing these trends on the chart will meet again, possibly sooner than we think, and in time Australia will once again see a net inflow of short term demographic movements.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZLJHtYv4c5A/VbCdb5AdEcI/AAAAAAAAXHw/CXxv0GdI6RA/s1600/a2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZLJHtYv4c5A/VbCdb5AdEcI/AAAAAAAAXHw/CXxv0GdI6RA/s1600/a2.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZLJHtYv4c5A/VbCdb5AdEcI/AAAAAAAAXHw/CXxv0GdI6RA/s640/a2.jpg" width="640" height="284"></a></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">3 - Chinese...and Kiwi visitors!</span></strong></p>
<div>The most notable of all demographic trends has been the incredible explosion in Chinese visitors to Australia, an obvious precursor to what lies ahead in terms of permanent migration.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the last year there have been 1.25 million visitors from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, and the latest data suggests that these extraordinary figures are set to accelerate plenty higher still in due course.</div>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pgaRYzF4V4o/VbCdbz-kJqI/AAAAAAAAXHY/QczN1Dsy7Rk/s1600/a3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pgaRYzF4V4o/VbCdbz-kJqI/AAAAAAAAXHY/QczN1Dsy7Rk/s1600/a3.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pgaRYzF4V4o/VbCdbz-kJqI/AAAAAAAAXHY/QczN1Dsy7Rk/s640/a3.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Chinese migrants are settling in Australia too, with 18,550 settlers in the year to May - essentially as high a figure as we have seen to date - while there were also a record 19,930 settlers hailing from India over the same 12 month period.</div>
<div>
<br>Watch this space, as these numbers are growing apace.</div>
<p><span>Indeed, the number of settlers hailing from Asia is now overwhelming compared to the numbers from all other continents - outnumbering European migrants by a ratio of five to one, for example.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Much has been made of the rapidly diminishing numbers of settlers from Oceania (essentially New Zealand), with permanent migrants effectively having halved since 2012. </span></p>
<div>There are also ever fewer Britons emigrating to Australia at present as the UK economy has become an "incredible job-creating machine" over the past few years.<br><br>
</div>
<div>For all that, it's worth noting that there were well over 1.25 million short-term arrivals from New Zealand over the past year - a record high - so it's hardly all one way traffic, bro.<br><br>
</div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-j2_ZEM-cr5A/VbCddFNBaPI/AAAAAAAAXHs/qZZIxA2adOA/s1600/a5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-j2_ZEM-cr5A/VbCddFNBaPI/AAAAAAAAXHs/qZZIxA2adOA/s1600/a5.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-j2_ZEM-cr5A/VbCddFNBaPI/AAAAAAAAXHs/qZZIxA2adOA/s640/a5.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a><br><br></p>
<div>At the same time there were also a record 567,100 American visitors enjoying the turnaround in exchange rate in Australia over the past year...the delayed Oprah effect.</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4 - Record foreign students</span></strong></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Recent data from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) liaison projects a huge ramp up in the number of foreign students in Australia over the years ahead, one of Australia's fast-growing "export" industries.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<div>In fact, this is already happening, with Chinese students playing a major role here too. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The first quarter of 2015 witnessed record enrolments of foreign students in Australia.</div>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_yQJnV4-_2c/VbCdcgG3JfI/AAAAAAAAXHk/HTPWS2Z482s/s1600/a4.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_yQJnV4-_2c/VbCdcgG3JfI/AAAAAAAAXHk/HTPWS2Z482s/s1600/a4.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_yQJnV4-_2c/VbCdcgG3JfI/AAAAAAAAXHk/HTPWS2Z482s/s640/a4.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The RBA data also confirmed that most foreign students are overwhelmingly bound for Sydney and Melbourne.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The main themes here are that we can expect population growth in 2015 again to be slower than it has been in recent years.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">This slowdon has clearly had a positive effect on the unemployment rate to date, and it is hoped that if the economy continues to add jobs at the pace it has been since October the unemployment rate may fall into a range with a "5 handle".</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The other obvious theme here which stands out is the sheer dominance of migration from Asia, a story which is only set to grow in Australia over the decades ahead.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The role of Chinese investment in Australia in particular is set to be very material over the next five years.</div>
<div class="separator">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Foreign student numbers and other demographic property investor trends: Pete Wargent

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<p>The developer lobby, better at promoting self-interest than anyone else in society, would have us believe that building more homes will make homes cheaper.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Developers themselves believe that building more houses will make themselves more profitable – particularly if government gives them their wish list of things to make their lives easier - and what happens after that … well, who cares?</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The truth is: the only way to make homes significant cheaper is to build far too many of them. Over-supply is the one thing that can crash a market.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>All of the areas I call the No Go Zones are places undermined by over-supply. <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Investors far too often fall victim to such places because supply is the factor most over-looked by property investors.</span></p>
<p>Those who take the time to do some research before tossing a few hundred thousand at an investment property tend to focus on demand, with scant regard for the flipside of the growth equation.</p>
<p>Some organisations that purport to advise investors preach a simplistic follow-the-population-growth strategy.</p>
<p>If high population growth was the core element in a good locational choice, the leading capital growth performers in the past five years would have been the Gold Coast and Wyndham City in the south-west of Melbourne. Gladstone, boosted by the influx of tens of thousands of gas project employees, would have soaring prices.</p>
<p>The opposite is true in those markets, which have all suffered recent periods of marked decline. The too-often forgotten factor is supply.</p>
<p>The Gold Coast had five years of falling property values because of too much supply. Wyndham City, which overtook the Gold Coast as the municipality with the greatest annual additions to its population, recorded no growth in prices for three years, because of an excess of house-and-land packages – ultimately flogged off to distant investors by dodgy marketing companies.</p>
<p>Gladstone, after recording high growth in rentals and prices in 2011 and 2012, saw rising vacancies and a sharp downturn in prices and rents after 2012 because developers went overboard yet again.</p>
<p>Over-supply causes rents to fall and that drags down property values.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The developers building the new projects don’t care as long as they can sell their product to someone and move on to the next project. In over-supplied markets, they tend to target distant investors unfamiliar with local conditions. The Chinese are the victims of choice these days.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">There are two “danger situations” at the core of the No Go Zones issue: (1) inner-city apartment markets; and (2) regional centres where a rise in supply (through new development) has coincided with a decline in demand (through downsizing in the resources sector).</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Inner-city units present a significant danger throughout capital city Australia. Boom-bust scenarios are common. As Hegney Property Group chairman Gavin Hegney says: “Apartments are always in over-supply or under-supply because of the lumpy nature of the market. With a housing estate you can release allotments in stages but you can’t do that with an apartment tower.”</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Another problem is the long lead time in creating high-rise unit buildings. Multiple developers will decide simultaneously to build towers in a strong market – two or three years later when they are completed, a lot may have changed.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">This is a clear and present danger for Australian buyers. Developers don’t care who buys their units as long as someone does, nor are they concerned if their buyers later find themselves unable to tenant their units or are forced to sell at a loss.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">But it is a concern for the market and for real estate consumers.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Given that Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Canberra and Darwin already have – or are heading towards - surpluses of inner-city apartments, and Sydney and the Gold Coast are trending in that direction, a good strategy for property investors is to simply avoid CBD unit markets altogether. There are much better (and cheaper) places to buy.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The coal and iron ore industries are the cause of the other core “danger situation”. When the resources boom was at its strongest, mining expansion created strong property markets in towns and regional centres that felt the positive impacts.</span></p>
<p>This prompted developers to initiate new projects to exploit the demand. Sadly, this coincided in a downturn in the coal sector, with commodity prices declining at a time of rising costs for mining companies. The iron ore industry has had similar problems.</p>
<p>Rising supply coincided with falling demand – a recipe for decline in property markets. The result has been sharply rising vacancy rates, leading to lower rents and ultimately falling prices.</p>
<p>Another factor is the growing use of fly-in-fly-out workers accommodated in workers camps, rather than renting in the local property market. </p>
<p>This has been a big factor in the Surat Basin region of Queensland, where developers built a lot of new dwellings in anticipation of strong rental demand – but more than 90% of resources workers have been </p>
<p>TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting">Twitter</a>.</p>
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Danger at the core of property investment 'No Go Zones': Terry Ryder 

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<p class="rtejustify">Melbourne's urban landscape is increasingly densifying with what appears to be a constant supply of residential development geared towards investors in inner city and medium ring suburbs.  As supply and choice increases, it becomes ever important for those choosing to invest in an inner city dwelling to consider investment criteria about and within a suburb to ensure that when you buy an apartment, you are buying maximum value for dollar.  Such criteria may include cost per square metre, proximity to amenity and public transport and owner versus renter breakdown, but one factor that is gaining increased gravity with investors is a suburb's walkability.</p>

<p class="rtejustify">Walkability is a points system derived by <a href="http://www.walkscore.com">Walk Score</a> and uses accessibility and proximity for residents to people, places, attractions and transportation options amongst other considerations to determine how walk friendly a suburb is for those who choose to reside within it.  The aim of this scoring system is to promote healthier, happier and more sustainable lifestyles by pointing potential renters to areas which gives them more lifestyle options and subsequently provides investors a good guide on which areas are potentially a good investment.</p>

<p class="rtejustify">Research on the local Melbourne property market conducted by advocate firm <a href="http://www.secretagent.com.au">Secret Agent</a> suggests that prices can rise by up to $298 per square metre for a five point increase on the Walk Score scale which works out to approximately $60 per square metre per point.  As a comparison, lets take two inner south suburbs of South Yarra and Elwood and compare an average 60 square metre apartment.  The Walk Score of South Yarra according to the scale is 92 compared to Elwood's 84, which is a difference of 8 Walk Score points.  Based on the Walk Score price guide alone, a purchaser would be paying on average approximately $480/sqm more in South Yarra than in Elwood. Obviously there are many other factors that affect an investors decision, but the main idea is to use the Walk Score as a guide when selecting a good investment.</p>

<p class="rtejustify"><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/Walkability.JPG" rel="gallery-all" title="Image courtesy cleanairinitiative.org"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-702px" src="http://urbanmelbourne.info/sites/urbanmelbourne.info/files/styles/article_full_width_702px/public/pictures/article-images/Walkability.JPG?itok=CMtWzPzf" title="Image courtesy cleanairinitiative.org" typeof="foaf:Image"></a></p>

<p class="rtejustify">Unsurprisingly, Melbourne's most walkable suburbs are located in the inner city and more to the point in the inner north with Carlton (currently with 10 residential projects listed on <a href="/developments">Urban.com.au's project database</a>) taking the crown as Numero Uno with a Walk Score of 97 out of a possible 100. Carlton is closely followed by it's inner city neighbours, Fitzroy (96) and Fitzroy North (93) in second and third place.  Melbourne in its entirety is second in Australia with a Walk Score of 57 compared to Sydney which has a Walk Score of 63.</p>

<p class="rtejustify">What is alarming though, and again not surprising to most people that live in Melbourne, is that once you spread out beyond the sought after inner city suburbs, the Walk Score drops off dramatically and provides a very clear insight into Melbourne's car dependency.  For example, Truganina, a new suburban development area located in the outer western boundaries of Melbourne, has a poultry Walk Score of just 20 and is classed as Melbourne's 328th most walkable suburb.  Those that read Apartments.com.au regularly know that the message will always advocate for smarter planning that revolves around infrastructure and amenity, similar virtues to what the Walk Score aims to exemplify.  So to see a score down in at the bottom of the barrel such as Truganina's, it beggars the question - why suburban developments are allowed to continue to eat up more land and to keep people in their cars which adds no value to the public realm? </p>

<p class="rtejustify">At the end of the day, most people if they had a choice would choose to live near amenity and services and not have to rely on the car as much, but it is an unfortunate fact that today Melbourne is a car dependent city due to its suburban sprawl. To combat this and to ultimately improve the lifestyle of Melbourne's citizen's, urban densification is crucial by way of increased residential and commercial development to ensure that more people can live, work and play in close proximity to better and healthier lifestyle options.    </p>
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