Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Mortgages

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The Reserve Bank of Australia could raise interest rates eight times in the next two years, given the central bank’s inflation target, according to former board member John Edwards.
The RBA is possibly already considering a schedule of rate increases given its forecasts for inflation returning to target and economic growth rising to 3 percent against a stronger global backdrop, Bloomberg reported, referring to a column Edwards wrote on the website of the Lowy Institute for International Policy, where he is a non-resident fellow.
The central bank has held rates at a record low of 1.5 percent since last August.
At its June meeting, its Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 percent, with Governor Philip Lowe saying that conditions in the housing market vary considerably around the country.
The long-term cash rate was about 3.5 percent -- below the 5.2 percent average over the past two decades -- and the RBA wants to start tightening in 2018 and reach its goal within two years, which would require four quarter-point increases each year, he said. 
“It seems to me that something like eight quarter percentage point tightenings over 2018 and 2019 are distinctly possible, if the RBA’s economic forecasts prove correct,” said Edwards, who was on the bank’s board until July 2016, Bloomberg reported.
“It’s possible the tightening could start earlier, or if not the tightening itself, at least the signaling which should precede it. We may be seeing a little of that now.”
Separately on the Money News show by Ross Greenwood on 2GB, Edwards, a former chief economist of HSBC, said the policy rate would not go higher than 3.5 percent because of the household debt.
When asked by Greenwood that some economies, like Canada and New Zealand, were pushed into recession by rate rises… and if a similar situation could arise in Australia, Edwards said that the RBA would proceed very cautiously. 
The first rate rises are likely not to come before February-March next year, opined Edwards and then increases every quarter.
Traditionally, the RBA changes rates in small increments and typically doesn’t commit itself to subsequent moves, making the market wary of predicting where the bank will be in a few years, Edwards said. 
In the current circumstances, he said we can reasonably assume:
<ul>
<li>the RBA considers its current rate to be exceptionally low </li>
<li>if the economy improves as it predicts, the next move will be up </li>
<li>if the economy was operating, as the RBA predicts, at 3 percent output growth and 2.5 percent inflation, it would think of a sustainable or natural policy rate of at least 3.5 percent </li>
<li>most importantly, it will want the policy rate increase to match the forecast improvement in Australia’s economic performance, so rising to at least 3.5 percent by the end of 2019</li>
</ul>
 He noted the risks of rate increases amid record high household debt, a fact even noted by RBA Governor Philip Lowe.
“The bigger the household debt, the more impact a quarter percentage point increase in the policy rate will have on household spending,” he said. 
“In the Australian case, it is certainly possible that high household home mortgage debt will crimp consumer spending if the policy rate returned to what was once considered a relatively low long-term rate.”
Still, Edwards noted that interest paid on Australian mortgages is much less than it was six years ago: while debt has increased, interest rates have fallen a lot. 
Payments are now 7 percent of disposable income compared with 9.5 percent in 2011, and 11 percent at the peak of the RBA tightening cycle before the 2008 financial crisis, he said.
He said tightening steps would be dictated by how the economy performs.
“If household spending weakness, if the long expected firming of non-mining business investment is further delayed, if the Australian dollar strengthens, if employment growth is persistently weak, then the trajectory of rate rises will be less steep and the pace less rapid.”
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Starting next March RBA could lift interest rates eight times over two years: Ex-board member John Edwards

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The Reserve Bank of Australia might need to cut interest rates several times due to the weakness in the labour market, according to Credit Suisse, a view which goes against the general market expectations.
While jobs growth in April beat expectations and the unemployment rate fell to a four-month low, full-time jobs edged down and the weakness in the detail would have been bigger if not for another month of bias from the sample rotation, Credit Suisse analysts, led by Damien Boey, said in a note to investors, the Business Insider reported.
The current cash rate is at a record low of 1.5 percent and many industry observers say the RBA will actually lift its cash rate, though this won’t be anytime soon. 
HSBC’s senior economist Paul Bloxham also recently suggested that the Q1 CPI numbers also suggest that rate rises are not likely any time soon. 
“The output gap is at levels historically consistent with another cash rate cut,” Credit Suisse said. “We believe there is a case for multiple cuts, because our measure of the output gap is based on upwardly-biased labour market data, and probably understates the degree of slack in the economy.”
That said, Credit Suisse felt the positive headline data means the RBA is yet to get a trigger to change its policy stance, the Business Insider said.
Latest ABS data showed Australia added 37,400 jobs, well above expectations for an increase of 5,000.
However, full-time employment fell by 11,600 over the month, while part-time employment surged by 49,000.
“Employment quality was even more questionable considering statistical distortions. For yet another month, the ABS rotated its sample in favour of cohorts with higher full-time employment to population ratios,” noted Credit Suisse.
“There is a notable net upward bias to the full-time employment data since late 2016. In our view, this means that if we were to remove upward statistical biases, the decline in full-time employment in April would have been even greater than officially reported.”
Employment leading indicators, based on business and consumer confidence, as well as trend growth in loan approvals point to a near-term bottoming out in the labour market, the bank said.
However, the official data, thanks to the statistical problem, has stolen the march and shows the jobs market has already bottomed out and when the sample bias reverses, it could start throwing out some ugly numbers.
Credit Suisse is not alone in blaming the data. Commonwealth Bank of Australia economists said the jobs report left them scratching their heads and pointed to the fact the job additions over the last two months were the equivalent of 1.2 million increase in US non-farm payrolls over the same period.
“Our cash rate model currently points to one further cut,” Credit Suisse analysts said.
“However, because of our belief that full-time employment gains have been significantly overstated, we think that our output gap proxy understates the amount of slack in the economy. We remain of the view that the RBA needs to cut rates multiple times this year.”
 
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RBA needs to cut interest rates several times: Credit Suisse

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It was only a matter of time before some property punters would cash in simply because property data is now pointing to a significant price correction.
The latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) data has inflation adjusted wage growth sitting most uncomfortably around zero which spells disaster for households carrying excessively large mortgages. Time to cool the heels-cash in, and lock oneself into a lease for twenty-four months or so and watch what happens as there are some worrying signs out there, although some areas will see minimal change and others massive.
The RBA also announced this week that it was concerned how the financial system would handle a significant price correction in the apartment investment sector. Between now and June 30 there are a staggering 15,000 apartments settling so we are approximately 90 days away from knowing if the investment apartment sector is about to collapse.
With the clear majority of these sales to Chinese investors we will soon find out if they can raise the funds to settle without the assistance of the major banks who have walked away from overseas investors.
Li Ming, a co-director of Aussiehome, recently announced that “the off-the-plan apartment markets is now the worst I have seen in the last 10 years.” He then went on to say that almost 80 percent of Chinese buyers can’t settle on the Australian apartments they have purchased and now would prefer to walk away. In the clear majority of cases, these properties are now worth considerably less than when they were an artist’s impression on a glossy brochure.
Property is a confidence game so when we start reading negativity we also start seeing an immediate response in consumer sentiment. This would almost certainly explain why the RBA is now sounding clear warnings directed at the investment apartment markets. This usually only happens when their internal research is discovering anomalies in the markets so immediately they start sounding the fog-horns.
I well remember remarking back in December 2008 when Wayne “The World’s Best Treasurer” Swan strangely increased the off-the-plan ratio from 50 percent to 100 percent that this would not have a happy ending. Who knows I may well be wrong although I still stand by my predictions where nearly nine years on we are now starting to see the result.
This also coincides with Sydney house prices presently posting the highest annual growth in 14 years. We all know (well most anyway) that for property markets to change direction you need a trigger. Should Li Ming be correct about the apartment investment market this will have a significant impact on this newly created apartment investment market right across the eastern seaboard.
If this does happen our governments and banks need to play this intelligently by riding the storm out by becoming landlords. In the past, they have panicked (especially the banks) by engaging in massive sell offs which cause more problems. What should be happening now is the intelligent preparation of worst case scenarios where lenders should be looking at first home buyers to create lease and buy back packages.
Having said that the first problem with housing affordability is the rental markets despite governments going down the wrong track of building more homes. If rents are flat and even decreasing as was the case 15 years ago, then the pressure on tenants is removed as it then becomes cheaper to rent over owning. What we forget are the many solid arguments back then that clearly showed renting was a smarter option than buying – how quickly we forget.
Obviously with so many brand-new apartments set to hit the rental markets rents will fall – just imagine what would happen if the NSW government forced the 200,000 plus permanently vacant Sydney apartments onto the market?
The Victorian government has acted on this with the introduction of the Vacant Residential Property Tax (VRPT) which will address the permanently vacant properties across inner and middle suburbs of Melbourne. The VRPT will be levied at 1 percent, multiplied by the capital improved value of the taxable property. A property worth $650,000 would then be charged a VRPT of $6,500 which in my opinion is too low because the clear majority are wealthy which is why they are not interested in renting the property out in the first place.
The VRPT should be between 3 and 5 percent although the Victorian government knows only too well that a 1 percent VRPT won’t have a significant impact on overseas buyers which is why they introduced it.
On the flip side, the NSW government is looking to further increase stamp duty for foreign buyers which would be an absolute disaster – just ask the Canadian government who did precisely this and then managed to collapse their investment markets by upwards of 30 percent.
I don’t worry too much about the property markets, I worry more about how our elected politicians will respond to these challenges. Generation Rent should be watching these markets very closely.
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000.
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

The big property shift is fast heading to a sell recommendation: Robert Simeon

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It was interesting - if a little alarming - to hear Shadow Treasurer Bowen this week noting that there was "no evidence" that investors are rushing in to the market in order to beat proposed changes to tax legislation relating to property.
It's unclear if the ALP just doesn't 'do' liaison with the real estate industry or whether this was a natural response to downplay a mildly accusatory question.
A huge number of investors I speak to are unsurprisingly concerned about prospective changes to tax legislation, and as such many are aiming to buy as much property as soon as they can.
This can be a problem with flagging future shifts in tax legislation well in advance, as we have also seen in Victoria over the past fortnight. 
Regardless of the political debate, it's on, and regulators may need to step in again later in the year. 
Housing finance surges on
The ABS reported the January housing finance figures on Friday morning which showed the value of investor lending tearing 28 per cent higher year-on-year.
So there's the evidence, lest anyone really needed it. 
Another surge in investor lending took total housing finance to comfortably its highest ever level both in seasonally adjusted and trend terms in the month January 2017. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/A1.jpg" alt="">
One point that should be acknowledged is that these are January figures, and some steps have since been taken by lenders to cool the investment lending sector.
On this evidence, it's likely that more tweaks will be needed.
On a national basis, the monthly figures for the homebuyer market were relatively flat. 
Loan sizes can sometimes be lower in January, yet even in seasonally adjusted terms the value of owner-occupied housing commitments was down a notch in the month (-0.2 percent), despite an uptick in the number of loans.  
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/A3.jpg" alt="">
Homebuyers around the traps
The national figures for owner-occupier commitments are being pulled down by Western Australia, where the number of commitments has been in a long downtrend from November 2013 (7,729) all the way through to January 2017 (5,803). 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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It's a similar story for the value of owner-occupier commitments in WA, which have dropped from $2.42 billion in 2014 to $1.94 billion. 
Finally, the average first homebuyer loan size was generally also a little lower over the Christmas period. 
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I'll take a look on Wednesday next week at where the investors are buying, but I can save you the suspense because the answer is Sydney and Melbourne.  
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The wrap
Housing finance continues to scale new monthly peaks, and the figures for investment lending will do little to quell the belief that APRA will be tapping on the shoulders of a few more lenders as this year progresses. 
That said, today's figures were for January and the most widely reported figures are seasonally adjusted, so there will be lots of attention directed at the next two months of data. 
 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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Investors rush to beat potential tax changes: Pete Wargent

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RBA Governor Philip Lowe says inflation will only rise slowly but the combination of record high household debt to income when wages were growing slowly was a “sobering combination”.
Speaking at the Australia-Canada Leadership forum, Lowe said “households are carrying more debt than they have before and, at the same time, they are experiencing slower growth in their nominal incomes than they have for some decades. For many, this is a sobering combination”.
He said “wage growth has been subdued given the ongoing slack in the labour market” and there was “downward pressure on retail prices from intensified competition”.
Although, low level of interest rates means that the debt-servicing burdens are not that high at the moment.
He said with given that outlook, underlying inflation would only increase gradually.
“Our central forecast is for headline inflation to increase to above 2 per cent later this year, boosted by increases in oil and tobacco prices. The increase in underlying inflation is expected to be a bit more gradual.”
The RBA has stuck to its forecast of 3 percent economic growth over the next couple of years. 
“If inflation is low for a long period of time, it is certainly possible that inflation expectations adjust, making it harder to achieve the objective. At the moment though, I don't see a particularly high risk of this in Australia. The recent lift in headline inflation is helpful here and most measures of inflation expectations are within the range seen over recent decades,” he said.
In relation to the risks from additional borrowing, he said it was possible that continuing rises in indebtedness, partly as a result of low interest rates, increase the fragility of household balance sheets and hurt the overall economy.  
In summary, Lowe said “flexible inflation targeting with a medium-term focus remains the right monetary policy framework for Australia”. 
 
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High debt, weak wages a 'sobering combination', warns RBA’s Lowe

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The RBA have highlighted the concerns about the Brisbane property market, suggesting a significant increase in the supply of apartments.
They suggested that the supply increase has begun to affect prices and rents in the Queensland capital.
The minutes from the February rate decision, where the RBA decided to hold the rates at a record low 1.5 percent, also noted the prices and rents falling in Perth.
"The combination of increased supply and lower population growth had already depressed rents and apartment prices in Perth and, increasingly, Brisbane," the minutes read.
However, they say that activity in the Sydney and Melbourne housing market in the second half of 2016 had increased, as did investor housing loan approvals.
It was noted that the housing market activity in Melbourne and surrounding areas had been supported by strong population growth and improvements in transportation infrastructure.
They concluded the property wrap by suggesting some lenders were taking a more cautious attitude to lending in certain segments. 
 
 
 
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Brisbane apartment supply noted in February 2017 RBA minutes

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Loans.com.au said it will keep up its focus on the investor market despite recent moves by the Commonwealth Bank and its subsidiary Bankwest clamping down on refinancing by investors.
Marie Mortimer, managing director, said borrowers who are turned away by BankWest or CBA "should come to us instead because we have much lower rates and we still want their business.”
She said <a href="https://loans.com.au/" target="_blank">loans.com.au</a> had maintained its focus on the market through its investor package which cut rates for investors who brought over both their home loan and investment loan.
“We want people with both a home loan and an investment property loan to come to us so we are offering a market-leading rate on their investment loan to encourage that,” she said. 
The online lender has packages starting from 3.59 percent, compared to most banks’ investor loan rate of 4 percent or more.
Mortimer said BankWest’s move may be the next phase of a retreat from investment lending by the banks.
Bankwest said earlier in the week it will no longer accept applications from new customers seeking to refinance their stand-alone investment lending from other financial institutions.
BankWest said the move would impact a very small number of applications and existing customers would not be affected. 
A BankWest spokesperson was cited by Mortgage Business as saying, “Bankwest continues to assess investment lending applications from current and prospective customers who meet relevant criteria within risk appetite,” they said.
“This aligns with Bankwest’s commitment to supporting a stable national housing market and sustainable economy in line with regulatory guidance.”
Commonwealth Bank, Australia’s largest bank, followed Bankwest in halting applications for new refinancing for investor loans, in a move that could see other lenders in the industry follow.
In a notice to mortgage brokers, CommBank said they are “committed to consistently delivering the best customer experience for home buyers, upholding the highest level of professional standards, and meeting our responsible lending and regulatory obligations,” according to a story published in news.com.au.
Home Loan Experts’ managing director Otto Dargan was cited as saying the Commonwealth Bank had to act to meet the  Australian Prudential and Regulation Authority’s 10 per cent cap on growth in investment lending.
“If they are too far below it (the 10 per cent cap) then they are losing market share,’’ he said.
“If they go over it then APRA will require them to set aside more capital which is very costly for the bank.”
He said CBA had “missed the mark” and had to take immediate action to reduce its investment lending.
Investment home loans represent 35 percent of CBA’s mortgage lending.
Mortimer of loans.com.au added that, “In recent months, a number of lenders have raised their rates or tightened their lending criteria in this space because of fears that they are over-exposed to investors.” 
“But we are excited about the prospects for the investment market and working as always to build long-term relationships with new property investors.”
During the month of December, lending to property investors across Australia grew at 0.8 percent, or at a 10.1 percent annualised rate, she said.
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Loans.com.au woos investors amid CBA-Bankwest moves to shun refinancing

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<div>GUEST OBSERVER</div>
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<div>Australian Finance Group (AFG) released its index for the final quarter of 2016, reporting more than $15 billion in mortgage lodgement volume.</div>
The index, which is not seasonally adjusted, rose by 9.9 percent over the year to December.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/12/AFG5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/12/AFG5.jpg" alt=""> Nationally, the average mortgage size of $488,875 was up from $475,083 from the prior year.
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<div>"Tale of two seaboards"</div>
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<div class="separator">Over the year there was strong growth in lodgement volumes in both New South Wales (up 10 per cent) and Queensland (18 per cent), but the real driver of growth was Victoria with a substantial 23 percent rise. </div>
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 Offsetting this, investors have backed off from Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/13/AFG4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/13/AFG4.jpg" alt=""> 
<div>In the December quarter the average mortgage size scaled fresh heights in each of the three most populous states. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/13/AFG1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/13/AFG1.jpg" alt=""> Investor rebound Finally, the share of AFG's market relating to investors ticked back up to 34 percent.
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<div>The wrap</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While activity in South Australia was flat, the weakness of the WA market in 2016 was evident, with the recent introduction of a new first home owners grant in the state designed to combat this. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Loan to value ratios across the year were fairly consistent at around 69 percent, about 0.7 percent lower than in 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the year non-major lenders have been pinching market share away from the main players, a trend that AFG expects to continue into the new year as consumers increasingly recognise the potential benefits of using a broker.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. </div>
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NSW mortgage size passes $600,000 average: Pete Wargent

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New borrowers should be better placed to withstand any adverse shocks to income or decline in housing prices than would otherwise have been the case, the latest RBA research suggests.
Its comments comes noting lenders have announced many changes to a range of price and non-price lending terms and conditions to strengthen their lending practices in response to supervisory expectations, according to the position paper entitled Macroprudential Policy Frameworks and Tools.
<a href="/images/2016/12/15/Graph%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/12/15/Graph%205.jpg" alt="">
It noted by April 2016, the pace of investor housing credit had declined from its recent peak of about 11 per cent to just below 5 per cent on a six-month annualised basis (Graph 6).
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<img src="/images/2016/12/15/Graph%206.jpg" alt="">
It also noted loan approvals for investor housing have increased over recent months, accompanied by an increase in housing price growth, driven by Sydney and Melbourne in particular.
"Even so, the earlier tightening in lending standards has helped to increase the resilience of household sector balance sheets, and hence also those of lenders, as new borrowers should be better placed to withstand any adverse shocks to income or decline in housing prices than would otherwise have been the case."
The paper noted the lenders' many changes were to a range of price and non-price lending terms along with conditions to strengthen their lending practices in response to supervisory expectations.
"In particular, interest rates for both new and existing investor loans were increased,10 high-LVR lending.
"There is now a differential between the indicator rate for owner-occupier and investor housing loans for the first time since 1996."
The paper advised it was important new borrowers "do not overstretch themselves to purchase property or rely on expectations of future increases in housing prices to enable them to do so." 
The paper was written by David Orsmond and Fiona Price. The paper was intended to make the results of current economic research within the Bank available for discussion and comment, but the views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Bank.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

New borrowers ought be able to withstand adverse shocks: RBA research

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The Reserve Bank Board meets next week on October 4. There is little prospect of the Board deciding to move rates. 
Since rates fell to 3% in December 2012 all six subsequent cuts have been in the February/May/August months. 
Those months, along with November, allow the RBA to respond to fresh information on inflation – printing quarterly usually around one week before the Board meeting. 
Those months also coincide with the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy where the Bank releases revised forecasts for growth and inflation. 
Forecast changes at that time are usually used to justify the decisions either revealing significant revisions to growth or inflation forecasts. Based on this recent practice it would be extraordinary to see a policy change in October. 
This meeting also marks the first time in the Chair for Governor Lowe. 
I have written extensively about the need for the new Governor of the Reserve Bank to adjust the inflation target from 2-3% to 1-3% to reflect the reality of lower global inflation relative to the mid-1990’s when the target was originally successfully adopted. 
However, as noted at the time, I held out little hope that the new Governor would take my advice. Accordingly I was not surprised to see last week’s announcement that the target had been “confirmed” as 2-3%.
However there has been a significant change from “on average over the cycle” to “over time”. The Governor also emphasised in his Statement to the House of Representatives last Thursday that “the main drafting change is to make the link between monetary policy and financial stability a little more direct”.
If we weigh those two changes together they go some way to achieving the objective that I was most concerned about. 
My concern was that the new Governor might, when confronted with an impossible task of lifting inflation to above 2.5% in order to “average” 2.5% over the cycle might unnecessarily impact asset markets. By using the vague term “over time” and linking policy directly to financial stability (read asset markets) he has allayed much of my concern on that issue. 
Markets are likely to eventually scale back prospects for further rate cuts given these developments. 
We should not be surprised that this new Governor has chosen that approach. And we should certainly not dismiss this change in approach as “window dressing”. 
Every great professional has a seminal piece of work that they can refer to as a “defining moment”. 
I would argue that such a time came for a young economist, Philip Lowe, who had been seconded from the RBA to the Bank of International Settlements in Basel in the early 2000’s. 
In July 2002 he published a paper in the BIS Working Papers series. 
He argued in his paper, that “financial imbalances can build up in a low inflation environment and that in some circumstances it is appropriate for policy to respond to contain imbalances.....while low and stable inflation promotes financial stability, it also increases the likelihood that excess demand pressures show up first in credit aggregates and asset prices, rather than in goods and services prices.
 Accordingly, in some situations, a monetary response to credit and asset markets may be appropriate to preserve both financial and monetary stability.” He further concluded that “greater co-operation between monetary and prudential authorities is important, not just in management of crises but also in preventing their emergence.” (Philip Lowe and Claudio Borio, BIS Working Papers, no. 114, July 2002).
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Around that time the US housing market was beginning to “stir”. Chairman Greenspan had been cutting the Federal Funds Rate in the face of weak inflation. 
The Federal Funds Rate eventually bottomed out at 1% by June 2003 (a year after Lowe’s paper was published). When Greenspan eventually got around to lifting the Federal Funds Rate in June 2004 he moved at a leisurely and predictable 0.25% per meeting until June 2006 when the Federal Funds rate peaked at 5.25%. 
In Greenspan’s defence it has been argued that lifting the Federal Funds Rate from 1% to 5.25% over 2 years should have had more traction with the bond market – the US 10 year rate only increased from 4.6% to 5.2% over the period. This muted response has generally been attributed to Chinese purchases of US Treasuries over that period as China’s foreign reserves boomed. 
Mortgage rates in the US are priced off long bond rates rather than the Federal funds rate so the response in the mortgage market to Greenspan’s policy was muted. However, if policy had been more pre- emptive, less orderly and predictable the traction with the bond market may have been much more effective. 
Greenspan had clearly ignored the signals which had been emphasised in Lowe’s work – over the 4 years from end 2000 to end 2004 US house prices (Case Schiller Index) had lifted by 46%! 
Greenspan’s response to critics who noted the build-up in pressures particularly in the US housing market was that his objective was to maintain low inflation and if there were any associated imbalances in other markets he could “clean up” in the aftermath of any asset market disturbance. Young Lowe clearly disagreed. 
That paper, all those years ago, gives us a clear insight into the values of the new Governor. Arguably, if his warnings had been heeded by Chairman Greenspan back in 2002 (note that he only started rising rates in June 2004) the world may have avoided the Global Financial Crisis. 
We expect that these values will be an important driver of future policy. Lowe’s adjustment to the agreement with the Government to include financial stability has its origins in that paper all those years ago. 
The balance between driving towards a higher inflation target and over stimulating asset markets (including housing) will take on a sharper edge than we have seen in the past. He is also likely to be open to the use of further macro prudential tools (as highlighted in that paper) should that be seen to be necessary. 
Bill Evans, Chief Economist at Westpac
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