<p>An entity directed by HSN's Rafi Assouline and Rebel Property's Allen Linz has filed plans for an impressive new precinct in Woolloomooloo.</p>

<p>The major mixed-use development would transform a prominent William Street site into a new residential village anchored by affordable housing and a large public park.</p>

<p>The proposal, submitted as a State Significant Development Application, covers 164-172 and 174-194 William Street, a 6,398 sqm site between Forbes Street and Dowling Street on the southern edge of Woolloomooloo.</p>

<p>Designed by fjcstudio in collaboration with Bangawarra, Studio Bright and Tribe Studio Architects, the scheme would deliver 227 apartments across four residential buildings ranging in height up to 18 storeys, alongside retail space, public domain improvements and a new publicly accessible park.</p>

<p><img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0eb59b7c-914a-4a5c-b849-3a56749f5e93" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.18.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=mxM6EEqeoLjrCiTlCzTKTvzpKuh6kSkH" /></p>

<p>It's another design scheme for Rebel, who took <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-rebel-property-group-takes-woolloomooloo-precinct-to-nsw-government">concept plans to the NSW Gov late last year</a>.</p>

<p>The latest plans will be a mix of 167 build-to-sell apartments and 60 affordable apartments, with the affordable housing component representing 15 per cent of the project's gross floor area. The apartment mix includes 12 one-bedroom, 53 two-bedroom, 89 three-bedroom apartments and 13 penthouses, while the affordable housing component would comprise 42 one-bedroom and 18 two-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3b3d4553-8a8c-4af5-aa8c-519ffb1e28c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.12%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_Yb6ibN7eDnOtQjCNDK2eviORa4qzgv." /></p>

<p>Rebel Property is seeking to take advantage of the NSW Government's infill affordable housing bonus provisions under the Housing SEPP, which provide additional floor space and height in exchange for the delivery of affordable housing for a minimum of 15 years. The planning pathway allows a 30 per cent increase in floor space ratio and building height where 15 per cent of the development is dedicated to affordable housing.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the centre of the development is a 1,356 sqm sunlit public park designed to become a new community gathering space at the gateway to Woolloomooloo. The park would be complemented by a network of pedestrian laneways connecting William Street with the surrounding streets, improving permeability through what is currently a largely impermeable block.</p>

<p><img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="257af931-a393-4007-8c6d-7219796df58d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=KAHy94GrhaReFsWTGDKfy39EDJ8gEEv4" /></p>

<p>The design team says the public domain has been heavily influenced by the site's topography and Aboriginal cultural heritage, drawing on the escarpments, gullies and landscape characteristics that historically defined the area before urbanisation. The landscape design has been developed in partnership with First Nations consultancy Bangawarra.</p>

<p>The project would be delivered across four separate buildings. The William Street East and William Street West buildings, designed by fjcstudio, would contain the majority of the apartments. Melbourne-based Studio Bright has designed the Forbes Street building, while Tribe Studio Architects is responsible for the Dowling Street building.</p>

<p>Rebel had secured approval for the concept plans late last year.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look: HSN, Rebel, advances Woolloomooloo precinct plans

<p>A locally heritage-listed furniture showroom on Water Street is set to become the centrepiece of a new mixed-use residential development as local developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/keylin-group">Keylin</a> seeks approval for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lotus-on-water-street-290-water-street-fortitude-valley-qld-4006">Lotus on Water Street</a>, a 15-storey project on the Fortitude Valley side of Spring Hill.</p>

<p>The proposal spans 290 Water Street and 137-141 Warry Street, combining several properties into a 2,869 sqm site that sits between Fortitude Valley, Spring Hill and the rapidly evolving Victoria Park precinct. Keylin's plans would deliver 132 apartments alongside new retail, hospitality and commercial space, while retaining and repurposing the historic Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom that fronts Water Street.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/jackson-teece">Jackson Teece</a>, Lotus on Water Street comprises a 12-storey residential tower rising above a three-storey podium and communal rooftop terrace. The development includes 76 apartments classified as multiple dwellings and a further 56 units proposed as short-term accommodation, designed to be flexibly used as either accommodation or permanent residences. The apartment mix comprises six one-bedroom, 54 two-bedroom and 16 three-bedroom homes.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9822bb79-6c49-49c9-95ba-319e8c8d81c3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20front.png?VersionId=ioW8zbN4UVebbLetTFuv92t.HkdgfR5e" /></p>

<p>Residents would have access to an extensive rooftop recreation level spanning more than 1,200 sqm of communal open space. Plans include a pool, gym, sauna, infrared sauna, yoga area, library, private dining room, barbecue facilities and landscaped entertainment spaces, making the rooftop the project's largest shared amenity offering.</p>

<p>At street level, the proposal focuses on the adaptive reuse of the heritage buildings along Water Street, where 518 sqm of retail and commercial space is planned across shop, office and food and drink outlet uses. A permeable residential lobby would be positioned between the retained heritage buildings, creating a pedestrian connection between the historic streetscape and the new tower behind.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="269cf3e0-7d13-48bf-a318-05a00deb5c10" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20podium.png?VersionId=DLXmTCLsp6GOcLpQ0h.0z7wKCw59EhN_" /></p>

<p>The heritage retention strategy is central to the scheme. The development application notes that the Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom and adjoining heritage buildings will remain, with only non-significant structures on the site earmarked for removal under a previously issued Heritage Exemption Certificate. Levels one and two of the new podium are recessed behind the heritage façades to maintain their prominence within the streetscape.</p>

<p>Jackson Teece has drawn inspiration from the site's manufacturing history when designing the podium. The planning documents state that the façade incorporates perforated metal screening that references the woven and rattan furniture historically produced on the site. Cascading and climbing plants are integrated throughout the podium to soften the building's presentation and screen parking levels behind. The landscape strategy also informs the project's name, Lotus on Water Street, drawing on the historic Spring Hollow waterholes that once ran through Spring Hill and the blue water lilies associated with Meeanjin, Brisbane's traditional name.</p>

<p>The proposal also incorporates the neighbouring property at 141 Warry Street, currently occupied by a healthcare service. The existing building would remain, with nine dedicated parking spaces allocated within the new development to support its ongoing operation. In total, Lotus on Water Street proposes 117 car spaces, including 110 resident spaces and seven visitor bays, alongside 100 bicycle spaces.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="70cf07bc-4fd8-4e70-92dd-be8b21c4e4f0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20site.png?VersionId=txlxrJImM0Sm_vTzHVKh5DDUkyL_CiiA" /></p>

<p>The site sits within the Spring Hill East Precinct of the Spring Hill Neighbourhood Plan and is positioned around 650 metres from both Fortitude Valley Station and Exhibition Station. It is also within walking distance of the King Street precinct, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Herston Quarter and Victoria Park, which is earmarked to become a major venue precinct ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.</p>

<p>Planning documents describe the location as a key gateway between Spring Hill and Fortitude Valley and highlight the area's increasing importance as new transport infrastructure and Olympic-related investment reshape Brisbane's inner north. The development team argues the project will contribute additional housing supply while activating a section of Water Street that has historically received less investment than other parts of the Valley.</p>

<p>Keylin has become increasingly active across Brisbane and southeast Queensland, assembling sites in strategic inner-city locations. They are currently selling and delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/oria-spring-hill-447-gregory-terrace-spring-hill-qld-4000">Oria Spring Hill</a>, just over 140 apartments due for completion in 2027.</p>


Keylin plans heritage-led Lotus on Water Street apartment development in Fortitude Valley

<p>Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.</p>

<p>The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.</p>

<p>One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.</p>

<p>"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.</p>

<p>"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]</p>

<p>The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.</p>

<p>PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.</p>

<p>"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]</p>

<p>Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.</p>

<p>Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.</p>

<p>The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.</p>

<p>"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.</p>

<p>"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]</p>

<p>Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.</p>

<p>Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]</p>


Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

<p>Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.</p>

<p>The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]</p>

<p>“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.</p>

<p>The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]</p>

<p>“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.</p>

<p>“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]</p>

<p>Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.</p>

<p>Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.</p>

<p>The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.</p>

<p>LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.</p>

<p>Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]</p>


Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

<p>Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?</p>

<p>Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.</p>

<p>NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.</p>

<p>“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.</p>

<p>"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.</p>

<p>Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.</p>

<p>“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”</p>

<p>Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.</p>

<p>“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”</p>

<p>She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.</p>

<p>“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”</p>


Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

Mortgages

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<p><span>John Symond, the founder and chairman of Aussie Home Loans, believes the Sydney residential market was peaking.</span></p>
<p><span>"She's topped out," he suggests.</span></p>
<p>"I really can see, I am feeling it already..that the market is just starting to come off the boil," he told Ross Greenwood on the <em>2GB Money News</em> program tonight.</p>
<p>"By Christmas I reckon instead of going up in the hot areas by 15%, I reckon it will be like half of that."</p>
<p>"Into next year, I think they'll (prices growth) will settle right down to four or five percent. It will be a more healthy market, than the fears that are around at the moment.</p>
<p>"Ross I have been telling friends of mine… who ask me that question all the time … and I reckon that the prices are so high at the moment, my suggestion is wait six to 12 months the chances are, all going well, there will be opportunities out there that you will probably buy better in some areas than what you can buy today."</p>
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Patience John Symond advises Sydney first home buyers: the market is coming off the boil

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<p><span>GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Inspired by Robert Shiller’s best seller, <em>Irrational Exuberance</em>, I developed the Jamie Durie Index (JDI) over a decade ago, which represented the number of times the name ‘Jamie Durie’ appeared in newspapers and magazines.  Shiller’s book suggested that the media typically play an important role in propagating asset price booms.  </span></p>
<p><span>Jamie Durie -host of top rating TV show, <em>The Block</em> - was the poster boy of Australia’s property market culture and the JDI was designed to measure the media attention and chatter surrounding property.  As it happened, the JDI correlated closely with the cycle in house prices, with both peaking in 2003.</span></p>
<p><span>At the time, Australian property was booming, stories of house price gains achieved in no time with an assist from plenty of debt dominated dinner party conversation, and Australia was rapidly becoming a nation of home renovators, inspired by Jamie Durie and shows like <em>The Block</em>.</span></p>
<p><span>Fast forward to 2015 and <em>The Block</em> has come a long way, having out-lived its original host.  In its initial form, it survived only two seasons.  After a six year absence, the Nine Network re-introduced the show in 2010, which has been hosted by Scott Cam ever since.  Despite the 20% lift in average home values in the past three years, <em>The Block</em> and other home renovation shows – including House Rules and Reno Rumble - haven’t hit the heights of a decade earlier.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>The rise and rise of home renovation shows...</strong></span></p>
<p><span>The recently appointed Treasury Secretary, Mr John Fraser, has weighed in on the debate about whether there is a bubble in property prices, suggesting that the plethora of home renovation television shows represents compelling evidence of over-investment in housing.  While there might be signs of a property market culture re-emerging, we need to tread carefully about drawing strong inferences about a property bubble for a number of reasons.</span></p>
<p><strong><span>...but little sign of a speculative frenzy</span></strong></p>
<p><span>First, a shift in consumer attitudes and tastes has contributed to the proliferation of home renovation shows.  For instance, the growing popularity of cooking shows, including Master Chef and My Kitchen Rules, together with the emergence of the celebrity chef, is largely due to the renewed interest in food and home cooking and a waning interest in processed foods.  Is anyone suggesting there is a bubble in home cooked food?</span></p>
<p><span>Second, the aggregate data doesn’t point to over-investment in housing, just yet.  Private sector dwelling investment has lifted to a little above 5% of GDP, but this remains well below prior peaks of around 6½% (see chart).</span></p>
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<p><span>Third, despite the growing interest in home renovation shows, this has not yet translated into a lift in the share of their budgets that consumers devote to home renovations.  That much is obvious from the fact that the value of renovations declined to 1.8% of GDP in 2014, well below the peak of 2.7% of a decade ago and its lowest level in more than twenty years (see chart).  To put this in context, had the value of renovations accounted for 2.7% of GDP in 2014, this would have translated into a dollar value of $43 billion, well above the actual spending on renovations of $30 billion, representing a shortfall of over $10 billion.</span></p>
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<p><span>The academic literature confirms that the level of home improvement activity provides a valuable insight into home owners' expectations of future price growth.  In a paper published in the Journal of Financial Economics, Harrison Hong and other researchers from Princeton show that in the United States, homeowners who are optimistic about future house prices are more likely to speculate on future price growth by renovating.</span></p>
<p><span>Fourth, increased liquidity, a pre-requisite for speculative bubbles according to Shiller, has been absent to date.  In fact, the annualised turnover rate of the stock of housing has declined to 4%, around half its level from a decade ago (see chart).  Normally, turnover rises with house prices because greater home equity encourages home-owners to trade up to more expensive homes and vendors who observe higher turnover infer that demand has picked up and lift their reserves.</span></p>
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<p><span>The RBA speculates that various factors underpin muted housing turnover: the unusually low participation of owner-occupiers in housing market transactions and growing evidence that homeowners have become more reluctant to borrow against increases in net wealth to trade up homes.  Hardly ingredients of a property bubble.</span></p>
<p><strong><span>Tipping point for a bubble has not been reached...yet</span></strong></p>
<p><span>Despite the proliferation of home renovation shows on Australian television, signs of a re-emerging property market culture, and strong upswing in Sydney and Melbourne property prices, the modest level of renovation activity, low turnover in the housing stock and the fact that private sector dwelling investment is in line with historical norms suggests that the property market does not yet share the speculative elements that prevailed during the boom of the early 2000s.</span></p>
<p><span>Back then people renovated to cash in on the soaring equity in their home so they could trade up to bigger places.  Now, the reality has set in that the transaction costs of moving are too high and households are more realistic about their expectations of capital growth.  If there does exist a tipping point for the emerging property market culture to morph into a speculative frenzy of over-investment, I believe that we are not there yet.</span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Founder of Evidente, <a href="https://www.evidente.com.au" target="_blank">Salvatore (Sam) Ferraro</a>, is a top rated quantitative analyst and has over 17 years of experience in financial markets, with investment banks, Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch, providing advice on best practice to portfolio managers and as a senior portfolio manager for a boutique funds management firm, covering banks, insurers, utilities and infrastructure stocks. </p>
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

Are the Jamie Durie devotees really to blame for the 2015 over-investment property boom?

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<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept the official cash rate at 2% for June.</p>
<p>The RBA last cut rates in May and February.</p>
<p>"With the RBA focussing on stimulating economic growth, dragging the Australian dollar lower and lifting consumer spending, they are likely to focus less on the growth in the housing market," <span>CoreLogic RP Data head of research, Tim Lawless said.</span></p>
<p>"The RBA is likely to look through the pause in the rise of dwelling values reported by CoreLogic RP Data for the month of May, paying more attention to the strong upwards trend that has been evident in Sydney and Melbourne since mid-2012. </p>
<p>"Dwelling values have risen by 39% in Sydney and by 22% in Melbourne over the past three years, while the other capital cities have seen much more sedate conditions. </p>
<p>"At a time when interest rates remain low, there is the expectation that tougher lending requirements to investors as well as higher supply levels will start to cool housing market conditions and bring the rates of capital gain back to more sustainable levels across the two largest cities where growth in dwelling values has been the highest," Tim Lawless said </p>
<p>More time is needed to see if historic low interest rates are impacting on property markets outside of Sydney and Melbourne, according to the real estate network LJ Hooker.</p>
<p>LJ Hooker CEO Grant Harrod said the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to wait for May’s cut to influence the economy was sensible, despite weak business investment figures. </p>
<p class="Normal"><span>He believes an interest rate cut is now more likely at the end of the year, if needed, to stimulate the economy.</span></p>
<p class="Normal"><span>“We haven’t seen any signs but it is too early to call if it’s had any positive effect in cities such as Perth and Canberra - it could take another three to six months,’’ he said.</span></p>
<p class="Normal"><span>In Sydney, a lack of listings combined with historic low interest rates are continuing to bring record numbers of people to open inspections and push up property prices. </span></p>
<p class="Normal"><span>Mr Harrod believes it has evolved as a unique market and is likely protected from any ‘bubble’ due to a lag in DA approvals to match population growth.</span></p>
<p class="Normal"><span>“The biggest issue facing all agents at the moment is the lack of listings and the proliferation of buyers,” he said.</span></p>
<p class="Normal"><span>“The total number of properties available for sale across the LJ Hooker network is down by about five percent and the industry has dropped 5.5%.”</span></p>
<p class="Normal"><span> </span></p>
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Rates on hold at RBA June 2015 meeting

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<h3 id="mr-title">Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision</h3>
<p>At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at <span class="noWrap">2.0 per cent</span>.</p>
<p>The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, but some key commodity prices are much lower than a year ago. This trend appears largely to reflect increased supply, including from Australia. Australia's terms of trade are falling nonetheless.</p>
<p>The Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing its policy rate later this year, but some other major central banks are continuing to ease policy. Hence, global financial conditions remain very accommodative. Despite some increases in bond yields recently, long-term borrowing rates for sovereigns and creditworthy private borrowers remain remarkably low.</p>
<p>In Australia, the available information suggests the economy has continued to grow, but at a rate somewhat below its longer-term average. Household spending has improved, including a large rise in dwelling construction, and exports are rising. But a key drag on private demand is weakness in business capital expenditure in both the mining and non-mining sectors and this is likely to persist over the coming year. Public spending is also scheduled to be subdued. Overall, the economy is likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. With very slow growth in labour costs, inflation is forecast to remain consistent with the target over the next one to two years, even with a lower exchange rate.</p>
<p>In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative. Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending. Credit is recording moderate growth overall, with stronger lending to businesses and growth in lending to the housing market broadly steady over recent months. Dwelling prices continue to rise strongly in Sydney, though trends have been more varied in a number of other cities. The Bank is working with other regulators to assess and contain risks that may arise from the housing market. In other asset markets, prices for equities and commercial property have been supported by lower long-term interest rates.</p>
<p>The Australian dollar has declined noticeably against a rising US dollar over the past year, though less so against a basket of currencies. Further depreciation seems both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices.</p>
<p>Having eased monetary policy last month, the Board today judged that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate at this meeting. Information on economic and financial conditions to be received over the period ahead will inform the Board's assessment of the outlook and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target.</p>
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Strong again in Sydney: RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' June 2015 meeting statement

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<p class="p1"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Refinancing is pretty much on the cards for everyone in today’s marketplace, </span>estate agent John McGrath suggests<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"At some point, another lender will make it worthwhile to switch, or you might want to refinance with the same lender to release equity for your next move," he said.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"Refinancing is an opportunity. Yes, it can be a pain – in fact a major inconvenience, especially if you have to move all your accounts across to your new lender as part of a ‘package deal’, but you could save thousands of dollars every year so it really is worth the trouble, especially today with variable and fixed mortgage rates so low. </span></p>
<p class="p4">"The most important piece of advice I can give you on refinancing is to get advice before you do it.</p>
<p class="p4">"It really pays to sit down with a reputable mortgage broker who will assess your current position; discuss what you want to do next; and then determine which lenders are most appropriate for you," he wrote on his switzer.com.au blog. </p>
<p class="p4"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Alan Hemmings, general manager of McGrath’s mortgage broking division, Oxygen Home Loans, gave John five tips on how to do refinancing well.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;">Do not accept the advertised rate</strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> – Most lenders advertise standard variable rates, others advertise with the ‘standard’ discounts available under their package. The truth is that lenders are discounting well beyond the rates they advertise, particularly for variable loans. </span></p>
<p class="p4"><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;">Be aware of other costs</strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> – Exit fees on loans were banned a few years ago but you’ll still need to pay a discharge fee. Then there’s the establishment fee on the new loan, plus some other fees. It could easily add up to around $1,000. Ask yourself, will the interest rate saving cover the refinancing costs? Also be conscious of ongoing fees, such as annual package fees. </span></p>
<p class="p4"><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;">Buyer Beware</strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> – Don’t fall for ‘honeymoon’ rate offers. Lenders use them to attract new business but what does the rate convert to after the introductory (honeymoon) period? You might find it goes to the standard variable rate or a ‘standard package’ discount of say, 0.3% for the rest of the loan. A negotiated discount of 0.9% for the life of the loan right from the start would work out cheaper. </span></p>
<p class="p4"><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;">To fix or not to fix?</strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> – Understanding your likely future circumstances should guide you here. Most lenders now allow some additional repayments on fixed rate loans without penalty, however should you wish to ‘break’ the loan then you’ll be up for a fee. Remember, fixed rate loans provide certainty of your repayment amounts but not much flexibility.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;">Do you want fries with that?</strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> – What other banking facilities do you require? Do you need an offset account, credit card, access to free ATMs? Your overall banking needs might also dictate the type of loan you need. If you’re looking at a transaction account and credit card, a ‘package’ loan might suit you better than a basic loan. </span></p>
<p class="p4"><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </strong></p>
<p class="p4"><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;">For information on property loans, rates and more, visit Mozo.com.au or <a href="/guides/get-loan-savvy-expert-tips-for-a-first-time-investment-or-refinancing-loan-in-a-free-ebook">click here</a> for the</strong><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;"> free <em>Property Observer</em> eBook, <em>Get loan-savvy – tips for a first time, investment or refinancing loan</em>, which helps you decide on a home loan that meets your requirements.</strong></p>
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Five tips for refinancing: John McGrath

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<p>Westpac has announced a two year introductory variable rate discount on both owner-occupier and investor loans.</p>
<p>Offering a 49 basis point two year discount, it puts the variable rate at 4.34%, before converting to 4.83% after the two year discount period (4.88% comparison rate). <br><br>Brendan Collogan, head of marketing for Westpac Home Ownership told Broker News Westpac has <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/personal-banking/home-loans/variable/first-home-loan/" target="_blank">also abolished the $600 establishment</a> fee on all new Flexi First Option home and investment property loans.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">This special offer is only available on new Flexi First Option Home Loan and Flexi First Option Investment Loans. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">It cannot be taken in conjunction with, or in addition to other special offers, negotiated rates or discounts. Not available to company and trust account holders.</span></p>
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Westpac scraps $600 home loan establishment fee

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<p>The RBA deputy governor Philip Lowe says recent measures from banking regulator, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) were having a "positive, albeit modest, effect".</p>
<p>"In the past couple of weeks you've seen a number of banks say they're requiring larger deposits for investor loans, they're offering smaller discounts on interest rates and smaller rebates, they're requiring higher serviceability levels," Dr Lowe said at yesterday's Thomson Reuters regulatory summit in Sydney.</p>
<p>But he added that the use of macroprudential tools can only be pushed so far.</p>
<p>"This is an issue that's very clearly on our radar screen. How far can you push the tighter regulation of the banking system without causing the same volume of loans to be made but just through a different financial intermediary," Dr Lowe said.</p>
<p>"In the '70s and the '60s we had a lot of the tools that are currently in vogue and we ended up getting rid of them was because what happened was that institutions found out ways of getting around the rules.</p>
<p>"Finance is very flexible and people are very good at moving the money from the people who have it to the people who want it."</p>
<p>He said Australia has not experienced rapid growth in non-bank loans yet, but any tougher regulations would make that far more likely.</p>
<p>"Maybe a few more loans are being made through non-bank lenders than through the banking system as a result of the tougher requirements, but it's very much at the margins," he said.</p>
<p>"But it's a margin that we do need to watch very carefully, and history tells us that if you make the incentive too misaligned between the banks and the non-banks then the funding will follow to the non-banks."</p>
<p><span>"My conversations with a number of banks around the country [suggest] the various APRA measures are having an effect," he said. </span></p>
<p><span>"The measures so far seem to be having a positive albeit modest effect and it is worthwhile seeing how those play out.</span></p>
<p><span>"My subjective assessment would be the level of risk in bank mortgage portfolios has risen over the past couple of years."</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Dr Lowe said the RBA was watching the steps taken in New Zealand.</span></p>
<p>"We follow these issues very carefully. Of course New Zealand's not the only country that's implemented some type of macroprudential regulation," he said.</p>
<p>"The number of countries that have done that over recent times is very large and so we watch, study the experience of other countries carefully."</p>
<p>"It is entirely appropriate that (Australian) households are careful as well because the level of risk there, while I don't think it is extreme, it has picked up and both financial institutions and households need to respond to that," he told the conference in Sydney.</p>
<p><span>"Household debt is high, property prices are very high, household income growth is slow, the unemployment rate has drifted up – all those things would suggest there has been an increase in the level of risk, particularly as people have bought property for investment purposes.</span></p>
<p>"In that environment, it is entirely appropriate [the banking regulator] APRA has a very close dialogue with financial institutions about the risks in those portfolios, and makes sure there are plenty of buffers there in case things don't turn out so well."</p>
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RBA warns on heightened level of property investment risk

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<p>The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) released their quarterly Authorised Deposit-taking Institution (ADI) Property Exposures data for March 2015 earlier this week.  The data always provides a valuable insight into current and historic mortgage lending by domestic ADIs and this quarter’s release was no different.  Given the heightened vigilance from APRA around investment lending and overall lending standards as well as recent changes to mortgage policies from many banks, the latest release from APRA may also signal a cyclical peak in investment lending as well as interest-only mortgage lending.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4819" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Chart-14.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="500" height="180"></p>
<p>Based on the value of all outstanding mortgages by households to Australian ADIs, there was $852.5 billion outstanding to owner occupiers (65.4% of all housing loans) at the end of March 2015 and $450.2 billion to investors (34.6%).  Over the 12 months to March 2015, the total value of outstanding mortgages to owner occupiers has increased by 7.2% compared to a 12.4% rise in outstanding credit to investors.  This represents a reduction in the annual rate of increase in owner occupier lending over the quarter and the greatest rise in investor lending since September 2010.  Much like other data received more regularly, the chart indicates that there remains significantly more momentum in the investor lending space than that for owner occupiers where growth is more moderate.  With changes to investment lending criteria now being adjusted we are likely to see a slowing of that rate of change over the coming quarters.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4820" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Chart-23.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="500" height="182"></p>
<p>At the end of March 2015, a record high 38.6% of loans outstanding had an offset facility, up from 35.4% a year earlier.  Also a record high was the 37.4% of all outstanding mortgages which were interest-only, up from 35.4% a year earlier.  Just 0.2% of all outstanding mortgages were reverse mortgages and 2.3% were low documentation which was down from 3.1% a year earlier and at a record low proportion.  Other non-standard loans accounted for just 0.1% of all outstanding mortgages.  It seems that more and more mortgagees are accessing offset accounts in order to reduce the interest payable on their mortgages and maximise repayments of the principal while interest rates are so low.  The data also indicates that a high proportion of lenders are accessing interest-only mortgages which seem somewhat counterintuitive at a time when interest rates are so low.  Following APRA’s letter to ADIs in late in 2014 they specifically called out interest only lending as a risk and we would expect that over the coming months these types of mortgages will become harder to obtain.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4821" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Chart-33.jpg" alt="Chart 3" width="500" height="179"></p>
<p>The average balance on all outstanding mortgages at the end of March 2015 was $243,500.  The average balance has increased by 3.6% over the past year, its fastest annual rate of growth since the year to June 2012.  Loans with an offset facility ($290,600) and interest-only mortgages ($315,100) have much higher average outstanding loan balances.  The annual growth in average outstanding loan balances has been slightly more moderate for mortgages with an offset and interest-only mortgages at 3.3% and 3.4% respectively.   The annual rate of growth for mortgages with an offset is the fastest since September 2012 and the rate of growth for interest-only mortgages is at its fastest pace since September 2010.  Encouragingly, the data indicates that outstanding balances are reducing for low documentation and other non-standard loans as they become less common.  Over the past year the average balance has fallen by -2.9% for low-documentation loans and by -6.7% for other non-standard loans.  With mortgage rates low and fewer of these loan types being written it seems those that have these types of loans are continuing to pay down these mortgages at a fairly rapid pace.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4822" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Chart-43.jpg" alt="Chart 4" width="500" height="181"></p>
<p>Turning the focus to new loans written over the March 2015 quarter, 63.0% of the total value of new lending was to owner occupiers and 37.0% was to investors. The proportion of new lending to investors has fallen from a record high of 37.9% in the June 2014 quarter.  Based on this data it suggests that growth in demand for both owner occupier and investment lending may have peaked.  The annual change in new owner occupier and investment lending was recorded at 9.3% and 15.4% respectively.  The annual change in owner-occupied mortgages is growing at its fastest pace since March 2014 while the annual change in investment lending has been trending lower over the past two quarters.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4823" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Chart-51.jpg" alt="Chart 5" width="500" height="180"></p>
<p>Over the March 2015 quarter, 0.7% of new loans approved were low-documentation, 42.3% were interest-only, 0.1% was other non-standard loans, 42.2% were third party originated loans and 2.8% were loans approved outside of serviceability.  The 42.3% of new loans which were interest-only was down over the quarter with the proportion at its lowest level since March 2014.  The data also seems to reflect the slowing of growth in investment demand, remember that interest only loans tend to be (but not always) reflective of lending for investment purposes.  The ADIs seem to be increasing the usage of their broker channels with 42.2% of loans originated by third parties.  With 2.8% of new mortgages approved outside of serviceability over the March 2015 quarter, this was down from 2.9% over the previous quarter.</p>
<p>In terms of the annual change in new lending, the value of new low documentation loans approved rose 31.1% year-on-year, interest-only loans rose 19.7%, other non-standard loans fell -24.3%, third party originated loans increased by 14.9% and loans approved outside of serviceability increased 25.2%.  Although low documentation and loans outside of serviceability make up a small overall proportion of lending, the significant increase in lending for these loan types over the year is a potential cause for concern.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4824" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Chart-61.jpg" alt="Chart 6" width="500" height="183"></p>
<p>Looking at the loan to value ratios (LVR) of loans written over the March 2015 quarter,  25.7% of new loans had an LVR of less than 60%, 41.4% of loans had an LVR of between 60% and 80%, 21.7% had an LVR of between 80% and 90% and 11.1% had an LVR of 90% or more.  The 11.1% of new loans with an LVR of more than 90% is the lowest proportion since December 2010.  The 25.2% of mortgages with an LVR lower than 60% was the highest proportion since June 2013.  This falling proportion of loans above 90% LVR suggests there are proportionally less high-risk mortgages being written.  It should be noted that around a third of all new mortgages written (32.8%) had an LVR of more than 80%.</p>
<p>Looking at the year-on-year change in mortgage lending by LVR bands, mortgages with an LVR above 90% were the only segment to record a fall down -7.8%.  Mortgages with an LVR below 60% were up 18.6% year-on-year, LVRs of 60% to 80% were up 12.4% and LVRs of 80% to 90% rose 13.9%.  The 18.6% rise in mortgages with an LVR of less than 60% was the largest since December 2013, the 12.4% rise in mortgages with an LVR of 60% to 80% was the lowest since March 2013, the 13.9% rise in mortgages with an LVR of 80% to 90% was the lowest since March 2013 and the -7.38% fall in mortgages with an LVR greater than 90% was the largest fall since March 2011.</p>
<p>Given that we have recently seen many banks starting to implement changes in their lending policies, mostly focussed on investors we would anticipate that investor and interest-only lending will likely moderate over the coming quarters.  The decline in higher LVR lending is an encouraging development given a focus on mortgage serviceability at this time of low mortgage rates.  The increase in lending outside of serviceability and low documentation loans over the past year is likely to be an area of scrutiny for APRA over the coming months.</p>
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APRA data shows new low doc loans potential cause for concern

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<div>People seem to love the idea of "macro-prudential" measures. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It all sounds new and rather exciting, but in truth the term simply refers to financial regulation and approaches to managing systemic risks.<br><br>
</div>
<div>In respect of the housing market, the more popular ideas tend to include caps on loan-to-value ratios or restrictions on the level of debt that can be taken on by a borrower expressed as a multiple of income.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has taken the approach of limiting lending to investors in Auckland, while investor loans will attract additional capital charges.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While such a targeted approach has seemed unlikely to date in Australia, lenders do already use similar methods to weed out high-risk loans, for example through restrictions on lending in mining towns, or on certain property types which are perceived to be of higher risk.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has announced on multiple occasions that it is working with APRA in order to monitor lending standards, with APRA already having indicated an advisory 10 per cent cap on the growth of investment mortgage lending books.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Some banks are now insisting on 20 per cent deposits for investment loans. Others are tweaking borrowing rates, and others still have banned mortgage lending against property investments in self-managed superannuation funds (SMSFs).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Eventually these measures will begin to take hold of Australia's property markets, even if through perception alone. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Whether or not more robust measures are taken to target specifically the rampant Sydney market remains to be seen.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Let's take a look in three parts at the termination of the last Sydney housing market boom in 2003/4 to see what we can learn.<br><br>
</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1 - The "double tap"</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>Just as has been the case lately in this cycle, APRA began to discuss privately and publicly its concerns with the Sydney housing market through 2003.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The regulator also took additional steps to collect data on mortgage lenders in order to identify the outliers, and held discussions with boards in order to seek assurance that prudent lending standards were being maintained.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This alone did not have the desired effect, and APRA consequently ramped up capital requirements and adjustments to mortgage insurance in order to moderate the market.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Arguably, however, a bigger factor in snapping off the Sydney boom of just over a decade ago was the "double tap" on the brakes applied by the Reserve Bank, hiking rates from 4.75 per cent to 5.25 per cent through two rapid-fire tightening shots in November and December 2003.</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pgA6kSfQOLQ/VV8GFNlad7I/AAAAAAAAVjo/EKsxZSpHm1s/s1600/jc1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pgA6kSfQOLQ/VV8GFNlad7I/AAAAAAAAVjo/EKsxZSpHm1s/s640/jc1.jpg" width="640" height="274"></a></div>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge all charts</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Given that Sydney dwelling price growth was all but cooked within the next quarter, this was arguably the most important factor, with the standard variable mortgage rate (SVR) thereafter remaining above 7 per cent all the way through until the financial crisis.</span></p>
<div> </div>
<div>One troubling matter for the regulator this time around is that the odds of standard variable rates heading to 7 per cent again any time soon are nil, while new borrowers are able to fix borrowing rates at levels close to 4 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Futures markets are pricing an inverted yield curve for the remainder of this calendar year, and no rate hikes are priced for 2016 either, with the cash rate expected to remain at historic lows for at least the next 18 months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-R30idufUauE/VV8GGE8h5KI/AAAAAAAAVj8/42KD_MqTwKk/s1600/jc2.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-R30idufUauE/VV8GGE8h5KI/AAAAAAAAVj8/42KD_MqTwKk/s640/jc2.jpg" width="640" height="260"></a></div>
<p><br><span>Ergo, higher lending rates will not be the dampener.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 2 - Supply and underlying demand</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>Another factor which will be different through this Sydney cycle is interstate migration.<br><br>In the year to September 2003, nearly 33,000 persons fled New South Wales for pastures new.<br><br>As you can see from my chart below, the mirror image movement in the line denoting Queensland in 2003 shows you that they were heading for a cheaper lifestyle in the Sunshine State.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PMeyYwjJH_E/VV8OQGujGAI/AAAAAAAAVk0/gDyBlT9ayf8/s1600/JC9.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PMeyYwjJH_E/VV8OQGujGAI/AAAAAAAAVk0/gDyBlT9ayf8/s640/JC9.jpg" width="640" height="262"></a></div>
<p><br><span>However, interstate migration is not going to be a factor to slow the Sydney market in 2015.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">In fact, interstate migration from New South Wales has fallen to its lowest level on record, and is set to decline yet further in the months ahead as Sydneysiders stay put for the superior employment prospects.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">This is putting intense pressure on the Sydney property market, its rail, roads, public transport and infrastructure.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The below chart says it all. We are constructing far fewer houses than in decades gone by with the supply of shovel-ready land in Sydney falling to almost zero, but population growth in New South Wales has exploded higher.</span></p>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-LvQKaqLVW6Y/VV8GGBbmiUI/AAAAAAAAVkE/0NpsNRJCW3M/s1600/jc3.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-LvQKaqLVW6Y/VV8GGBbmiUI/AAAAAAAAVkE/0NpsNRJCW3M/s640/jc3.jpg" width="640" height="268"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>My <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/05/construction-boom-to-break-all-manner" target="_blank">chart packs</a> have shown that rolling annual apartment approvals have ramped up to around 27,000 in Greater Sydney, which is a start, but is hardly going to be enough in itself to pull up the property boom.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Real Estate Institute of New South Wales (REINSW) figures showed that at the end of the 2003/4 property boom Sydney had a vacancy rate of 4.4 per cent, and 5.3 per cent on the outer.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If a property market "in equilibrium" is said to have a vacancy rate of 3 per cent, then Sydney has got some building to do before we get back to that level, at least in the suburbs I visit, which are largely close to the city.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-03guB3XyK8M/VV8GFR2giGI/AAAAAAAAVjs/d3qOL8mNbP4/s1600/JC5.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-03guB3XyK8M/VV8GFR2giGI/AAAAAAAAVjs/d3qOL8mNbP4/s640/JC5.jpg" width="640" height="278"></a></div>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">A handful of urban precincts are starting to become "well supplied", particularly to the north of the famous coat-hanger, but as I've shown here previously, the new supply is predominantly of the high rise unit variety.</span></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ms2EMUJ1vDk/VV8GFL8VBTI/AAAAAAAAVjw/yzDxHUzND2U/s1600/JC6.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ms2EMUJ1vDk/VV8GFL8VBTI/AAAAAAAAVjw/yzDxHUzND2U/s640/JC6.jpg" width="640" height="272"></a></div>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">With population growth in New South Wales tracking at above 105,000 per annum, there is a huge and growing demand for property in the harbour city.</span></p>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3 - The pipeline</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>One final point is that there is an enormous volume of pent-up buyers in the pipeline already, with record loan volumes written prior to the newly-announced lending measures.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In March, there were $5.9 billion of investor loans written in NSW, the highest figure ever recorded in Australia.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0a3mBnK3X4g/VV8HM4KJ-sI/AAAAAAAAVkc/1JzdeXswOBg/s1600/JC7.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0a3mBnK3X4g/VV8HM4KJ-sI/AAAAAAAAVkc/1JzdeXswOBg/s640/JC7.jpg" width="640" height="270"></a></div>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The clincher for mine, though, is that now this has become by no means an investor boom alone - owner-occupiers are piling into the market too, for fear of missing out.</span></p>
<div>Rolling annual lending to owner-occupiers in New South Wales has leapt to its highest ever level at more than $70 billion...and rising fast.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-I3Ldgsooyyw/VV8HM55JMPI/AAAAAAAAVkg/kpA8FUgbqCA/s1600/JC8.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-I3Ldgsooyyw/VV8HM55JMPI/AAAAAAAAVkg/kpA8FUgbqCA/s640/JC8.jpg" width="640" height="276"></a></div>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">I note that some commentators have called "fading demand" in Sydney based on transaction volumes. I can see why you might think that if you haven't actually been here lately, or attended any viewings, or auctions, but this is to be wrong-footed by the data.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The principal reason for the diminished number of transactions is that vendors have held back in anticipation of higher prices.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The level of stock on market in Sydney is almost unthinkably low at the present time, and until this changes the number of buyers will continue to massively outweigh available stock, and prices will continue to rise, confounding the critics.</span></p>
<p><br><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wkeCVDQ5tRI/VV8GGJdUvMI/AAAAAAAAVkA/34hWNZwdNWI/s1600/jc4.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wkeCVDQ5tRI/VV8GGJdUvMI/AAAAAAAAVkA/34hWNZwdNWI/s640/jc4.jpg" width="640" height="276"></a><br><br></p>
<div>If you stop to do the numbers, you will see what I mean. In March 2015 $12.5 billion of mortgage finance was written in the state (as compared to less than $7.5 billion in March 2013). And there is hardly anything listed for sale; at least not for very long.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And this is before we begin to account for the impact of foreign capital, which every single auction I have attended this year leads me to believe is material, if not game-changing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I have no doubt that macro-prudential measures will serve to slow the market eventually - and there may be many more tools deployed that we have not been made aware of - but not before Sydney's median house price has been pushed up towards $1 million and investors have bid gross apartment yields all the way down into the mid 3 per cent range.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em style="line-height: 1.3em;"><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong> is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br><p><em>His book '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' is out now.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Sydney still heading to $1 million median and 3% rental yields despite macro prudential: Pete Wargent

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<p><span><span>RBA members discussed the potential risk that low levels of interest rates could foster imbalances in the housing market at its May meeting. </span></span></p>
<p><span><span>While concerned about the very strong pace of growth of housing prices in Sydney, and observing that conditions in Melbourne were strong, members saw much more muted trends in other capital cities. </span></span></p>
<p><span><span>As at previous meetings, they acknowledged the risks that could accompany a sustained increase in leverage from already high levels, should that occur, and that the expansionary effects of lower interest rates could be less than in the past. </span></span></p>
<p><span><span>On the data available for this meeting, however, it did not appear that the growth of housing credit, either for investment or owner-occupancy purposes, had been increasing over recent months. </span></span></p>
<p><span><span>The Bank minutes indicated it would continue to work with other regulators to assess and contain the risks arising from the housing market.</span></span></p>
<p><span>Members noted that the inflation forecast had been revised down slightly since February, reflecting the expectation that growth of economic activity would remain below trend for a little longer than previously forecast. </span></p>
<p><span>Domestic labour cost pressures were expected to remain well contained and underlying inflation was expected to remain consistent with the inflation target over the forecast period. </span></p>
<p><span>Headline inflation was forecast to remain below </span><span class="noWrap">2 per cent</span><span> in year-ended terms through to mid 2015, before picking up to be consistent with the inflation target thereafter.</span></p>
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