Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Mortgages

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After the RBA dropped the official cash rate to 2.25%, at the first Tuesday board meeting of 2015, smart borrowers could now possibly more than triple their rate cut by refinancing.
Mozo, the comparison website, gave the<a href="https://mozo.com.au/family-finances/how-to-triple-your-rba-rate-cut?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=February+Moneyzone+-+Main+List&amp;utm_content=February+Moneyzone+-+Main+List+Version+B+CID_6cb09ef2db5c7c9d5913b8aee4595003&amp;utm_source=MoneyZone&amp;utm_term=How%20to%20Triple%20your%20RBA%20Rate%20Cut" target="_blank"> scenario</a> using a $500,000 home loan over 25 years of dropping the variable home loan from 5.25% to 5%, where typically monthly home loan repayments would be reduced by just $73.
By comparison, Mozo suggests that if borrowers switched to their <a href="https://mozo.com.au/mystery-bank-deal?placement=home-loans-tile" target="_blank" title="https://mozo.com.au/mystery-bank-deal?placement=home-loans-tile">Mystery Bank offer</a> at 4.34% (4.37% comparison rate), then the monthly home loan repayments would be reduced by $262.
Mozo suggest that means around $78,600 saved over the life of the loan.
It urged borrowers to refinance by comparing the home loan market especially because lenders are aggressively pricing.
They gave an example<a href="https://mozo.com.au/blog/2014/09/mozos-big-4-mystery-shop-much-haggle-home-loan/" target="_blank" title="https://mozo.com.au/blog/2014/09/mozos-big-4-mystery-shop-much-haggle-home-loan/"> last year </a>looking for a $500,000 home loan, where 1.16% off the standard variable rate loan was secured, by mentioning lower rates from other providers.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Maximising the RBA February rate cut: Mozo

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Today's rate cut won't be the only one for 2015, according to AMP Capital head of investment strategy and chief economist Shane Oliver.
<img src="/images/2015/02/03/Picture%2022.png" alt="">
The Reserve Bank today cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points, from <a href="/expert-insights/finance/rba-cuts-rates-to-record-2-25-low-at-february-2015-meeting">2.5% to 2.25%</a>.
Shane Oliver, predicting another rate cut to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/562475605979979777" target="_blank">2% around April</a>, says he believes the Australian dollar should sit at around US$0.75.
Shortly after the Reserve Bank's announcement, it was at US$0.77.
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jrichardson-uRX5hFdKfN

Tweet of the day: More rate cuts to come, predicts Shane Oliver

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A woman charged over alleged involvement in one of Australia’s largest home loan frauds faced court in Melbourne last week on charges linked to an <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/legal/45172-arrests-follows-after-12-lenders-caught-in-alleged-100-million-myra-home-loan-fraud" target="_blank">alleged $110 million home loan fraud</a>.
Manija Zayee was charged after a lengthy investigation by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission into the activities of her mortgage broker partner Najam Shah and colleague Aizaz Hassan.
The fraud allegedly involved using fake documents to apply for at least 350 loans with numerous lenders, including the Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, ANZ, National Australia Bank and others.
ASIC alleges they submitted bank statements, pay slips, citizenship certificates and statutory declarations on behalf of clients from the now-defunct suburban Footscray company Myra Financial Services, where they worked, for loan applications between 2008 and 2011.
The company was registered in Zayee’s name.
Zayee has been charged with obtaining a financial advantage by deception by submitting false documents to secure a $136,000 loan from the Bank of Queensland.
Siobhan Hayden, chief executive of the Mortgage &amp; Finance Association of Australia (MFAA), said the MFAA only became aware of the fraud when Shah and Hassan were arrested.
Shah was a mortgage broker and previously registered with the MFAA but Hassan only acted as an introducer. 
“It appears that the fraud has been perpetrated around validating deposits and employment credentials,” Hayden says. 
“I’m keen like a lot of people to understand how it has been done, they have obviously used quite a sophisticated system. I would have to assume here the consumers were well aware of what is being structured for them so they could secure the loan.”
Hayden says from her discussion with the lenders involved she understands not one loan is in fault with only a few in slight arrears.
“$110 million has not been lost, it has been fraudulently acquired but the banks are still processing it,” she says.
Hayden says the MFAA did not have to cancel Shah’s registration as it had already expired two months prior to the exposure of the alleged fraud. 
“You can’t mitigate when someone chooses to be fraudulent,” she says.
Hayden says people should still have confidence in the integrity of mortgage brokers.
“Nearly 52% of loans introduced to lenders today are by brokers, so consumer confidence in brokers is still high,” she says.
“If any consumer ever feels uncomfortable about services provided they should contact the MFAA to raise a concern.”
ASIC has come under fire for its investigation of the alleged fraud after it was revealed Hassan was capable of writing loans until his accreditation was stopped on January 6, 2015. 
Hassan appeared before a bail justice on January 2, 2015. 
A spokesperson for ASIC defended the regulators role noting that the investigation into Myra Financial Services had been conducted over several years.
"It has necessarily been a long, complex and at times extremely sensitive operation,” the spokesperson said. 
"There are some important parts of the investigation which we are not able to divulge.”
The spokesperson said ASIC does not as a rule flag an impending arrest to an employer or to other related parties.
"To do so would increase the risk of the person of interest being tipped off, even if this was inadvertent,” the spokesperson said. 
"It would potentially place the employer in a compromised position. For example, the employer may wish to suddenly treat the employee differently – perhaps even sack them.”
A committal hearing for Zayee has been set for 17 April, the same date Shah and Hassan will next appear in court.
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/" target="_blank">SmartCompany</a>.
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cwaters-YrtBR88nBe

Mortgage broker faces court over alleged Myra Financial Services $110 million fraud

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The probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia lowering the cash rate at its February board meeting increased, given the opening Herald Sun paragraph of Terry McCrann’s column late on Wednesday night that declared the Reserve Bank “will almost certainly cut its rate at its first meeting back for next Tuesday”. 
Australian Financial Review coloumnist Christopher Joye noted this morning that traders reacted almost instantly and prospects of a February and/or March rate cut were revived.
Joye does not personally describe the probability of a February easing as “almost certain”.
Joye's best guess is it a still high 60% plus chance. And if they don’t go in February, they have laid the groundwork for doing so in March.
But Joye does note McCrann's past predictions immediately before board meetings used to be lethal, after he’d got the good oil from senior staff. But Joye says the RBA link isn't now as strong with McCrann.
McCrann has dubbed this the year of the mousetrap. 
"Beware of getting caught, snatching for seemingly easy succulent cheese," he warned.
"This year was supposed to the year where the ‘experts’ could build their predictions — for share prices, for property, for interest rates, for the critically important value of the Aussie dollar — around one foundational certainty.
"This was that the US economy was picking up steam; so US interest rates would start going up after being at zero for nearly six extraordinary years, and would take the US dollar with them. Hullo an Aussie dollar heading for US70c, or even lower.
"But the year kicked off with a big event that nobody, and I mean nobody, predicted — the Swiss abandoning their attempt to keep the Swiss franc fixed against the euro.
"That’s combined with the almost as unpredicted plunge in the price of oil. 
"At the start of every year, it’s worth repeating that the future is unpredictable. 
"The greatest danger this year is thinking — and then acting on, or taking the advice of those ‘experts’ — as if it’s less unpredictable. 
"In fact it’s probably more unpredictable than normal; and we are going to get a taste of that at the Reserve Bank’s meeting on Tuesday week.
"The RBA spent all of last year defying, first, confident calls that it was going to hike; and then demands that in fact it slash rates.
"It left rates, sensibly, calmly, unchanged.
"Now there’s absolutely no chance of a rate hike.
"The question is whether it signals it might cut; while a really low inflation number would put a rate cut smack on the table.
"What is absolutely certain is that the key language in RBA governor Glenn Stevens’s post-meeting statement will change.
"That would obviously be the case if he’s announcing a 25-point cut, but it would change to “signalling a future cut” even in the now unlikely case the rate was left unchanged," McCrann advised his readers.
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Terry McCrann says February RBA rate cut almost certain

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Another quarter or half percent interest rate cut won't make the property market hotter, John Symond thinks.
The founder of Aussie Home Loans noted parts of the real estate market had cooled.
"Certainly the lower rates go the more affordable it is for borrowers, but I think we have rates at the moment where another quarter or half percent rate cut I don't think will push the property market to be hotter."
He envisaged rates would be cut because of the non-housing sector which needs "every bit of help they can get."
But with falling oil prices a boost to mum and dad wallets, Symond reckons the Reserve Bank might wait on the first cut in 2015.
"They might wait a little bit longer to drop than next week," he told Ross Greenwood on 2GB Money News.
"The political situation is not helping the economy," he said.
<a href="/expert-insights/finance/john-symond-expects-five-year-fixed-interest-rates-to-dip-to-4-75">Late last year</a> John Symond tipped five-year fixed loans were heading to 4.75%.
His comments came before today's CPI data which was was mixed, with a further slowing in headline inflation but some pick up in underlying measures.
Headline inflation printed at 0.2% q/q and 1.7% y/y, the weakest annual rate since Q2 2012.
At the component level, ANZ said the largest downside surprises were for fruit and vegetables, as well as retailing components such as clothing &amp; footwear and household furnishings and audio, visual and computing equipment. 
"Indeed, tradables measures were very weak, confirming our view that global disinflationary trends and weak demand conditions are partially offsetting the impact of pass-through from the weaker currency."
Meanwhile ANZ Banking Group chief executive Mike Smith has suggested the Reserve Bank of Australia should resist calls to cut official interest rates saying he was optimistic about Australia’s outlook – particularly with a falling dollar making exporters more competitive.
“If I was the central bank I would wait and see how this plays out because if the currency can take most of the shock, it’s a much better way to deal with it,” he said in remarks ­published by the bank on its <a href="https://bluenotes.anz.com/posts/2015/01/no-need-for-rate-cuts-mike-smith/" target="_blank">Bluenotes website</a>.
Speaking exclusively to BlueNotes on video, Smith said while plunging commodity prices were having an effect, the declining Australian dollar was mitigating some of the damage. “And of course it does leave you the option of monetary policy later.”
“I still see Australia as relatively well placed. I’m still not too worried by the Australian economy.”
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Rate cut won't reignite property market: John Symond

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Household debt has increased to an all-time high - at a multiple of 1.7 times annualised household disposable income, the ANZ Bank has noted.
But household debt levels remain ‘comfortable’ given growth in household income, interest rate levels and household assets, says bank researchers, David Cannington and Katie Hill.
Their ANZ Research paper - headed Household Debt: A house of bricks or straw - concludes there is little sign of financial distress among households.
"Mortgage delinquencies are well below 0.5% of total mortgages and have been trending lower for most of the past year," Cannington and Hill wrote.
<img src="/images/2015/01/21/anz-jan-21-five.jpg" alt="">
 <img src="/images/2015/01/21/anz-jan-21-six.jpg" alt="">
"Despite higher levels of debt, households’ ability to service their debt has improved markedly, primarily due to lower interest rates, with household interest payments as a proportion of income below long-run average levels," the report said.
<img src="/images/2015/01/21/anz-jan-21-one.jpg" alt="">
But notwithstanding the current manageable levels of household debt and the current forecast of steady expansion in Australian medium-term economic growth, they suggest under certain economic stress conditions households could see a sharp increase in debt stress, primarily through mortgage default.
"Recent RBA research is consistent with our view that the most likely driver of mortgage defaults would be negative housing equity combined with a sharp increase in debt service difficulty, likely due to broad-based job losses and higher interest rates," Cannington and Hill wrote.
<img src="/images/2015/01/21/anz-jan-21-two.jpg" alt="">
The report noted interest rates are a key variable driver of debt servicing ratios, and have been more volatile since the Global Financial Crisis, particularly to the downside. 
"While we don’t expect interest rates to rise sharply in the coming years, and we have forecast 50bps of rate cuts in 2015 reflecting a subdued economic growth profile, we have modelled the impact of various monetary policy scenarios on the debt servicing capacity of households. 
"Our general view is that, assuming no significant improvement in labour market conditions, debt servicing ratios around 10-11% would start to put pressure on mortgage delinquencies.
"However, interest rates and monetary policy do not adjust completely independently of economic and labour market conditions. In all likelihood, if interest rates were increasing it would be under a scenario of improved labour market conditions and high income growth. However, for the purposes of testing household leverage vulnerability to interest rates, all interest rate scenarios assumed the same income and credit growth assumptions, namely:
<ul>
<li>"Continued weakness in disposable income growth with growth gradually improving to 5% by 2017 and stabilising thereafter; and</li>
<li>"Annual household credit growth between 5-7%.</li>
</ul>
"The baseline scenario in the model assumes our current monetary policy view of 25bp cuts in March and May 2015, before the RBA begins a 100bp hiking cycle in 2016. Modelling suggests our baseline and baseline +50bps scenarios would see debt servicing ratios peak at manageable levels (8.6% and 9.4% respectively in 2017).
"It is only once the cash rate exceeded our baseline by 150bps (taking it to maximum of 4.5% in December quarter 2016) that the debt servicing ratio would be pushed beyond 10%. 
"There are good reasons to expect households will be able to absorb higher debt servicing ratios more easily than in previous hiking cycles. 
"Our recent research indicates households have opted to maintain elevated repayment rates in recent years and this behaviour has driven excess mortgage repayment rates to historical highs.
"In addition to higher mortgage repayments, balances in mortgage offset and redraw facilities have also increased. 
"In fact, the RBA estimates that balances in mortgage offset and redraw facilities has increased to around 15 per cent of outstanding mortgage balances. 
"As deposits in offset accounts are not officially measured as negative mortgage debt, standard statistical measures of household debt don’t fully reflect the improvement in household balance sheets, particularly in recent years. 
"This more conservative household financial behaviour could provide a significant serviceability buffer in the next hiking cycle."
<img src="/images/2015/01/21/anz-jan-21-four.jpg" alt="">
The report noted household’s inability to meet mortgage repayments would most likely be caused by an adverse shock to unemployment.
The research paper also provided some useful quantitative rules to assess the probability of mortgage distress. These include: 
<ul>
<li>The likelihood of missing a mortgage payment increases with the loan-to- valuation (LVR) ratio at origination, particularly high at an LVR ratio above 90%. </li>
<li>Households with high debt servicing ratios are more likely to miss a mortgage payment. In particular, household debt servicing ratios (including principal repayments) of over 50% were 10ppts more likely to miss mortgage payments than households with debt servicing ratios under 30%. </li>
<li>Households with a full-time employed primary income earner are 8ppts less likely to miss a mortgage payment than households with a primary earner that is not in the labour market. </li>
<li>
A greater proportion of households that miss payments have both high gearing and a high debt servicing ratio compared to households that have either high gearing or a high debt servicing ratio. 
</li>
<li>Loans that are repaid quickly ahead of schedule are less likely to miss payments. Households that are making repayments ahead of schedule are 4ppts less likely to miss a mortgage payment, compared to households paying on time.</li>
</ul>
Source: RBA
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10% debt servicing ratio would trigger mortgage delinquencies: ANZ

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The price growth for Australian houses will slow in 2015 to about 4%, Fitch Ratings has forecast.
Its Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook says an “affordability ceiling”, plus a potential interest rate rise in the medium term, will moderate the recent price growth.
Perth prices will not move, but prices in Sydney and Melbourne are forecast to rise between 3% and 4%.
House prices in Australian cities rose 8.9% in the 12 months to October 2014, it noted.
"However, the rate of growth has been slowing since it peaked at 11.5% in April," the report added.
 Price growth has been driven by continued record low interest rates and increasing investor demand in the Sydney and Melbourne markets. Annual growth rates to date have reflected a two- tiered market with the prices in Australia’s two largest cities outstripping other capital cities’ growth. 
Fitch expects that house price growth will moderate to around 4% in Sydney and Melbourne as rental yields become compressed and the prospect of further capital growth lessens. 
"Perth prices (3.4% annual) are expected to flatten as mining investment slows and prices in the other capital cities are expected to continue to grow at a moderate pace."
Fitch Australia’s managing director of structured finance, Ben McCarthy, said housing affordability had reached its peak in Australia.
“People just can’t afford to pay much more for housing,” he told the Australian Financial Review.
“At 4% growth, prices will still rise higher than people’s incomes.”
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Capital cities which have experienced strong house price growth in the past 24 months (Sydney 26.2%, Melbourne 17.4%) will continue to experience affordability pressure, he noted in the report.
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Australian property is among the most expensive in the world on almost all metrics, the report says.
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Housing debt as a percentage of disposable income was 137% in 2Q14, which has been increasing steadily from 130% since 2Q12. 
Fitch expects lending net volumes to continue to grow as house prices increase at a moderate pace. Investment loan approvals are expected to continue to represent 50% of new lending (excluding. refinance loans) as investors compete with owner occupiers. 
Existing borrowers are expected to be cautious with higher-than-average household savings being maintained. 
It noted mortgage prepayments have been gradually increasing since the market low of 17.2% observed in March 2011 to 21.3% as at June 2014, according to the Fitch Dinkum Prime RMBS CPR. 
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Nothing for Perth, but Fitch sees 4% price growth for Australia houses in 2015

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ME Bank has cut its five-year fixed rate home loan by 25 basis points to 4.69% per annum.
Their three-year fixed rate loan is at a record low of 4.59%, which brings both their three-year and five-year offerings to the cheapest on the market, according to ME Bank CEO Jamie McPhee.
“The cost at which ME Bank borrows in the fixed rate market has been falling. In turn, we can pass on these savings to customers,” he said.
“Unlike the majors, we’re keen to pass these opportunities on to customers and continue our aggressive position in the home loan market.”
McPhee said that, as well as their competitive rates, they recently made the decision to extend home loan offers to all borrowers, both members and non-members of Industry Super Funds and unions.
APRA statistics saw ME Bank boosting investor lending by 39.1% and owner occupied lending by 11.5% during the 12 months to 30 November 2014.
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ME Bank cuts five-year fixed rate to record low

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The November 2014 housing finance data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) indicates that demand for mortgages is starting to wane. 
We would expect that this trend will continue over the coming year as APRA crack down on higher risk mortgage lending and focus on curtailing growth to the investment segment of the market.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Chart-11.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4159]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4160" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Chart-11.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="500" height="184"></a>
 
Source: CoreLogic RP Data, ABS
In November 2014, the total value of housing finance commitments fell by -1.0%.  The total value of owner occupier housing finance commitments fell by -0.2% with owner occupier refinance commitments 0.1% higher while owner occupier new loan commitments fell by -0.3%. 
The investor segment of the market recorded a sharp fall in lending over the month down -2.2% following rises over the previous six months.  Year-on-year housing finance commitments have increased by 7.3% which is their slowest rate of year-on-year growth since January 2013. 
The year on year increase in the value of housing finance commitments has decelerated from a peak of 26.6% in December 2013.  Owner occupier refinance commitments rose 18.2%, owner occupier new loan commitments fell -1.8% and investment finance commitments rose 13.0%. 
Although lending to the housing investment segment is up 13.0% over the year, this represents the lowest year-on-year growth rate since December 2012.
The first chart above shows the total value of housing finance commitments over time broken down by owner occupier refinances, owner occupier new loans and investors. 
While lending for home refinance and investment purposes have continued to trend higher over the past year there has been clear weakness in the new loans to owner occupiers segment.  Investor commitments fell -2.2% in November and with APRA trying to slow the growth in lending to investors we would expect the investment segment will follow the lead of the owner occupier new loan segment over the coming year with growth continuing to slow.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Chart-21.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4159]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4161" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Chart-21.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="500" height="182"></a>
Source: CoreLogic RP Data, ABS
The total value of housing finance commitments in November 2014 was recorded at $29.0 billion.  Over the month there was $11.8 billion in commitments to owner occupier new loans (40.5%), $5.5 billion in owner occupier refinances (19.1%) and $11.7 billion in investment loans (40.4%).
The proportion of lending to investors eased over the month however, if refinances are excluded the proportion of lending to this segment is still extremely high, accounting for 49.9% of lending commitments for housing.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Chart-31.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4159]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4162" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Chart-31.jpg" alt="Chart 3" width="500" height="183"></a>
Source: CoreLogic RP Data, ABS
The third chart shows the rolling annual change in housing finance commitments (excluding refinances) versus the rolling annual change in combined capital city home values. 
Refinances are excluded because the data is used as a proxy for demand for new borrowings to purchase a home.  As you can see there is a correlation between growth in housing finance commitments slowing and growth in home values slowing. 
Currently we are seeing growth in both housing finance commitments and home values trending lower and we expect that this trend will continue over the coming year.
Demand for mortgages remains strong despite the fact that it has started to ease over recent months.  With APRA writing to Australian banks, building societies and credit unions late last year reinforcing sound residential mortgage practices we would expect a further slowdown in mortgage demand in 2015. 
Consequently we would also anticipate that this will result in a slowdown in the rate of growth in home values as demand eases.  We have already seen demand from the owner occupier market segment slow over the past year.  
With APRA advising Australia’s banking sector that they will be watching closely those that grow their investor mortgage book by materially more than 10% year on year, the investor segment may well follow suit in 2015.
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Demand for mortgages waning - home value growth will not be far behind

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Australians with a mortgage of $489,300 or more will see themselves spending $1 million or over for the life of their 30 year loan, according to Finder’s research.
The statistic is calculated on an average variable interest rate of 5.5%.
In a situation where the mortgage is 80% of the property value, then a property bought for $611,625 or more will end up costing more than $1 million.
Michelle Hutchison, money expert at Finder, said that borrowers are not looking down the track to see how much they end up spending when they look to see if they can afford a home loan.
“While it’s likely that your home will increase in value over a 30-year loan term, it might not compensate the cost of a home loan as the money you end up spending can be greatly increased if you have a small deposit and don’t shop around for a good value deal,” she said.
“This research was based on the average variable rate of about 5.5% but borrowers need to remember that there’s a big difference between what lenders are offering, which can mean bigger costs for a home if you’re not careful.”
She notes that the lowest ongoing variable rate they are current recording is 4.39% from Heritage Bank, or 1.11% lower than the average variable rate.
“Take advantage of the online tools and comparisons of different home loans to help you find the best value deals,” she said.
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