<p>Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.</p>

<p>Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.</p>

<p>Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.</p>

<p>“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.</p>

<p>He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]</p>

<p>After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.</p>

<p>"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."</p>

<p>Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.</p>

<p>"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]</p>

<p>Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.</p>

<p>"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."</p>

<p>For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.</p>

<p>"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."</p>

<p>As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.</p>

<p>"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.</p>

<p>"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]</p>

<p>Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.</p>

<p>"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."</p>

<p>That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.</p>

<p>"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]</p>

<p>Aimee says one moment stood out.</p>

<p>"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."</p>

<p>The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.</p>

<p>Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]</p>

<p>ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]</p>

<p>For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.</p>

<p>"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."</p>

<p>For Aimee, the change is measured in time.</p>

<p>“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]</p>

<p>Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.</p>

<p>ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]</p>


Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

<p>Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.</p>

<p>Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.</p>

<p>"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.</p>

<p>"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]</p>

<p>Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.</p>

<p>"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.</p>

<p>The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.</p>

<p>According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.</p>

<p>Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]</p>

<p>Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.</p>

<p>The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.</p>

<p>The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."</p>

<p>The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.</p>

<p>With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]</p>


Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

<p>Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.</p>

<p>The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.</p>

<p>Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.</p>

<p>Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]</p>

<p>The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.</p>

<p>Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.</p>

<p>"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.</p>

<p>The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]</p>

<p>The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.</p>

<p>According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.</p>

<p>The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]</p>

<p>The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.</p>

<p>"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.</p>

<p>"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]</p>

<p>Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.</p>

<p>Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]</p>


Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

<p>New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.</p>

<p>It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.</p>

<p>With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.</p>

<p>The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.</p>

<p>Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]</p>

<p>Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.</p>

<p>"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.</p>

<p>"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.</p>

<p>Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.</p>

<p>That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]</p>

<p>Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.</p>

<p>Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.</p>

<p>"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.</p>

<p>"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."</p>

<p>Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.</p>

<p>"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]</p>

<p>The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.</p>

<p>Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.</p>

<p>That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.</p>

<p>"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]</p>


The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

<p>A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.</p>

<p>The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.</p>

<p>The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.</p>

<p>The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.</p>

<p>Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.</p>

<p>"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.</p>

<p>"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."</p>

<p><img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" /></p>

<p>Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.</p>

<p>Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.</p>

<p>Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.</p>

<p>"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.</p>

<p>"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."</p>

<p>Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.</p>

<p>Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.</p>


Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Investment

<html><body>
<p class="Body">There is no one correct strategy for successful property investment.</p>
<p class="Body">There are many diverse ways to grow your wealth with residential real estate. The best strategy depends on the individual.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">But the various methods have one thing in common. They work only if the individual investor implements the plan with intelligence and diligence.</p>
<p>I’ve been involved in a series of seminars in recent weeks, as a speaker and as an organiser. I’ve witnessed discussion of numerous investment strategies. They all work, so long as the individual investor is accesses good information, taps into quality advice and makes good locational choices.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>I’ve presented at a number of seminars organised by Melbourne-based Performance Property Advisory. This business has a very clear approach to property investment on behalf of its clients, based on a singular focus on the one capital city that presents the best buying opportunities and potential for capital growth. Three years ago it was Sydney and more recently Brisbane was the focus.</p>
<p>The approach is very much quality homes in inner-city suburbs. From what I can tell, it works well for Performance Property’s client base. It’s a good strategy but there are others equally valid.</p>
<p>One of the approaches used by Brisbane-based PPI Advice is creating equity by buying houses where the land and zoning allow additional dwellings on the property. They’re focused primarily on inner and middle-ring suburbs of Brisbane, when the housing and amenities are of a high standard.</p>
<p>I’ve seen examples where investors have had considerable success with this kind of value-adding exercise. Done well, equity of $400,000 or $500,000 can be generated on one property.</p>
<p>On Saturday I spoke at a Melbourne seminar organised by Louise Lucas and the Property Education Company. Other speakers included clients of the business who have built substantial portfolios of well-performing properties by buying in affordable suburbs of capital cities and in good regional centres.</p>
<p>Some of the properties featured were what I sometimes refer to as “ugly real estate” – the kind of houses that make you think “I’m not sure I’d want to live in something like that”, located in downmarket suburbs with a certain kind of reputation.</p>
<p>But I know from three decades of research that ugly real estate grows strongly in value if it has certain qualities. If it’s solid, affordable and well-located in terms of public transport, schools and shops, it’ll appreciate in value. It doesn’t need to be pretty to achieve good capital growth.</p>
<p>Many downmarket suburbs have excellent capital growth rates. That’s why I often urge investors not to be real estate snobs. The key question is not “Would <span style="text-decoration: underline;">I</span> be happy to live there?” but “<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Who</span> would be happy to live there?”</p>
<p>People may aspire to live in the prime suburbs but most can’t afford it. They buy where they can afford the prices. If it’s solid and located near desirable amenities and jobs nodes, they’ll overlook a lot.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>That’s why the greatest demand goes to the cheaper areas.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>That’s why 234 people bought in Toorak (median $3.1 million) in the past year, but 801 in Frankston ($388,000) and 1,187 in Point Cook ($470,000). Houses sell twice as fast in Frankston as in Toorak and the rental yields are double.</p>
<p>Which is the right way to do it? It depends on the individual, where their preferences lie and how much they can afford to pay.</p>
<p>They’re all the right way – if the individual investor goes about it the right way. The right way includes undertaking genuine research and being prepared to pay for good information and quality advice.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Don't be a real estate snob: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australian super members have earned returns of 117% on average since the depths of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) nine years ago, despite February producing the first negative monthly return since January 2017. Recent data also reveals the risk for members in trying to time the market over that nine-year period and the cost of potentially switching products due to a relatively short period of underperformance.</p>
<p>SuperRatings has reported a return of -0.3% in February for members in a balanced option fund. Over the nine years since the GFC, the median balanced option fund has delivered an average return of 9.0% per annum (representing accumulated growth of 117%). For members in growth option funds (growth assets of 77–90%), the median return has been even higher, reaching 9.9% per annum. or an accumulated 134%.</p>
<p>Our data also reveals that a flight to relative safety in times of volatility can have long-term effects on investment performance. If the volatility of the GFC resulted in a member switching from a relatively riskier growth option to a balanced option during the depths of the crisis in 2009, they would be approximately $17,700 worse o today (assuming a starting balance of $100,000). </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/16/super%20rating%201.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The lesson for superannuation members is that a focus on long-term performance is essential. While members may feel unnerved by recent volatility, it is impossible to ignore the significant gains that super funds have delivered since the start of the bull market in 2009.</p>
<p>February’s market correction had a negative impact on super fund returns, but when assessed within the context of long-term performance, the overall effect is negligible. Our estimate is that the median balanced option return for February was -0.3% for accumulation funds and -0.4% for pension funds. Australian shares managed to rebound from early falls, with the S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index 90% recovered by the end of the month. Despite the recent market pullback, superannuation members have good reason to be positive.</p>
<p>Ater nine years, you might say the global share market rally is getting a bit long in the tooth, but this is at odds with the economic data, which is pointing to a strengthening economy.</p>
<p>Market corrections, while they can cause members to panic, are often a necessary check against bubbles. What the recent volatility tells us is that the market is capable of self- re flection, and that investors are focused on valuations as well as the broader economic picture.</p>
<p><strong>Choice of fund matters</strong></p>
<p>Looking back to the start of the bull market, there has been significant dispersion between the best and worst performing balanced funds. The worst performing fund has only managed to outperform inflation since July 2013. </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/16/super%20rating%202.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/16/super%20rating%203.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><strong>REST in top spot over 10 years</strong></p>
<p>SuperRatings’ return data for January show that REST has taken first place among balanced option accumulation funds, returning 7.0% per annum. over 10 years, followed by CareSuper, which returned 6.9%. All funds within the top 10 have delivered in excess of CPI plus targets, highlighting the strength and consistency of Australia’s top performers.</p>
<p>Among growth funds, CareSuper was the leader, returning 7.3%, followed closely by Energy Super, which returned 7.3%. While balanced funds still represent the most popular option among members in both the accumulation and pension phase, growth option performance is becoming increasingly relevant. Since 2008, member allocation to higher growth options (including local and international shares, property, and high growth options) has risen from 8.4% to 13.6%, and SuperRatings expects that this trend will continue. </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/16/super%20rating%204.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/16/super%20rating%205.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><em><strong>Kirby Rappell</strong> is CEO of <a href="https://www.superratings.com.au/" target="_blank">Super Ratings</a>.</em></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Super members are in a winning market despite volatility: SuperRatings

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
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<div>Actual investment was quite flat over the third quarter of the calendar year at a seasonally adjusted $29.4 billion, while fortunes have diverged significantly around the traps, according to the latest data from CapEx.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the economic powerhouse state of New South Wales the quarterly trend investment for private capital investment tore 12 per cent higher over the year to September 2018 to a record high of $8.22 billion. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>No wonder Greater Sydney has created almost 120,000 new jobs on a net basis over the past year, with plenty more coming down the pipe!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Building and structures investment exploded 20 per cent higher over the year in NSW, while plant and equipment investment was up by a pretty solid 5 per cent. </div>
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<div>Huge investment numbers for the Premier State.</div>
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<div class="separator">There was also steadier trend growth in Victoria, South Australia, and Queensland, while Tassie was off the charts with capital investment up by a ripping 33 per cent over the year to September, albeit from a low base in this cycle. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Unfortunately this was offset by shrinking investment in Western Australia - the quarterly trend now a walloping 62 per cent below the heady 2012 peaks - while Ichthys LNG investment has now dropped off the charts for the struggling Northern Territory. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">On the plus side a number of iron ore and other resources projects are now hoving into view for WA, so from a sentiment perspective the bottom is now likely to be in out west. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong>Brighter times ahead</strong></div>
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<div class="separator">Despite the modest actuals the Reserve Bank will surely be well pleased with this release, with the fourth estimate for 2018-19 capital investment rising all the way up to $114 billion, a substantial double-digit lift from the third estimate of $102 billion.</div>
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<div class="separator">We haven't seen a quarterly upgrade in expectations of this magnitude for just shy of two decades. </div>
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<div class="separator">The additional investment is planned and expected largely for the services industries, although investment in both mining and manufacturing also appears set to rise. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Overall, it was a sluggish result for actuals due to the seemingly endless drag from the resources jurisdictions, but Sydney is firing and the expectations for investment recorded a solid improvement. </div>
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<div class="separator"><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

NSW investment booming: Pete Wargent

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<p>Premium investment properties remain highly sought after by private, high-net-worth investors, according to Colliers International.</p>
<p>Paul McGlynn and Harry Bui of Colliers have sold McDonald’s Bella Vista (pictured above) to a private Asian investor from Melbourne for $6.65 million on a net yield of 3.1%. </p>
<p>The acquisition was for a 2,885sqm long-term ground lease. </p>
<p>McDonalds Australia constructed a brand-new single level restaurant with dine-in and drive-thru take-away facility, open to the public since May 2019.</p>
<p>Mr McGlynn and Mr Bui will be also taking the adjoining Shell Service Centre Bella Vista (pictured below) to the market for sale by international expressions of interest.  </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/9/21/Norwest_060820_36%20Large.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Both properties are located in a gateway position at the entrance of Norwest Business Park within the north-west growth corridor in Sydney’s Hills District.  </p>
<p>On a 2,813sqm site, this new Shell service station with an annexed café is anticipated to receive high levels of interest from both local and international investors.</p>
<p>The opportunity benefits from its premium location in Norwest Business Park, long WALE profile of 10 years by income, strong annual rental escalation, and head lease to Viva Energy Australia with a fully leased net passing income of around $604,544 per annum. </p>
<p>“Premium investment properties with long leases such as a freestanding petrol station leased to Viva Energy, 7-Eleven, Caltex, BP or freestanding fast food sites like McDonald’s are currently very sought-after,” said Harry Bui, National Director, Investment Services at Colliers International. </p>
<p>“Private high net worth investors are the most common buyer profile within the sub-$20million investment market, while both property syndicates and consortiums showed increased interest towards premium investment assets with longer WALE’s and company leases to national blue-chip corporate tenants.” </p>
<p>There have been several significant national portfolio sales for premium investments in the past year.</p>
<p>This includes; 33 7-Eleven petrol stations, which sold for $156 million in October 2019 and February 2020 with an average yield of 4.76% and; 25 Caltex petrol stations sold for $133 million in November 2019 with strong underlying land values for future development.  </p>
<p>Charter Hall also took a 49% stake in a portfolio of 225 BP petrol stations in Australia, worth $1.7 billion with a weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 20 years which was the biggest deal of 2019. </p>
<p>Paul McGlynn, National Director, Industrial at Colliers International said that the Norwest area where both properties are located will benefit from major State and Federal Government projects.</p>
<p>“Norwest is in the suburb of Bella Vista which is surrounded by major State and Federal Government infrastructure projects, specifically the North-West Metro which opened in May 2019, North-Connex due to open next month, the re-development of Parramatta CBD (11 kilometres South) and establishment of the new second Western Sydney Airport (43 kilometres West).”</p>
<p>“These infrastructure projects coupled with substantial increases in new residential dwellings and population growth locally will rejuvenate and promote Western Sydney, helping the area to become a major economic powerhouse.”</p>
<p>Colliers International will also be bringing a brand-new, flagship BP in Tighes Hill, Newcastle to market.<span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
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Two Norwest properties in Sydney indicate premium investments remain sought after

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<div>There's been a fair amount of talk about negatively geared landlords, and whether they might need to sell property during the rental market disruption.<br><br>You should never judge a 20-30 year investment on what's happening right now, but it's nevertheless worth taking a look at the current state of play.<br><br>With the Airbnb sector effectively shuttered at the present time some areas have seen a 5 to 10 per cent jump in rental listings as landlords seek tenants, especially in areas that are generally popular with students, holidaymakers, or short-stay lets.<br><br>With the borders also effectively closed to New Zealanders, tourists from China and India, and international students, there's likely to be a scramble for tenants over the coming months.<br><br>On the flip side, of course, Aussies aren't heading overseas either, so the net effect is less pronounced.<br><br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NHMwiB8le_s/Xqi_KI_OKqI/AAAAAAAA1co/f9bzKMhEbmYEpvVXqz0_K20qZL-txRQgACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/STDs.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1370"></div>
<br>The New South Wales State Government looks set to do its part with the apartment overhang by buying up unsold new apartments from developers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The compensating good news for landlords is that some of the available mortgage rates have plunged over recent months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pjevvfP3Yqo/Xqfy-Yv2d1I/AAAAAAAA1bk/7w7WuVZNbwIz8t-1h7xSFw_7uqsyT_JOACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="576" data-original-height="460" data-original-width="510"></div>
<p>The latest figures aren't available yet, but when they are they'll probably show that interest cost serviceability is back to where it was about 35 years ago.</p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-U63M-j09Ntk/Xqi7novQO8I/AAAAAAAA1cc/OkXV1ekccmcdanXhcxsw06e9sh5RH5xYgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/RBA.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1405"></p>
<p>Some of the 'rack rate' variable mortgage rates are still unreasonably high for investors, but for those taking a  moment to shop around rates may now be very low indeed. </p>
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<div>New owner-occupiers can secure mortgages from close to 2 per cent in some cases, while rates tend to be higher for investors. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A lot of the statistics quoted on the number of negatively geared landlords are years out of date (the figure was 1.3 million in 2016-17, but interest rates have nosedived since then, so the figure would be lower today). </div>
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<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ax0fxiMRIWA/XqgICpdCNzI/AAAAAAAA1cE/jhwZkE_NPqUru7XOFDfo_7zNp-ZzSB_oQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1378"></div>
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<div>Even assuming flat rents, a stylised model suggests that net rental losses will now be the lowest in years.</div>
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<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mSLzexWYa9Y/XqgIrBCLKfI/AAAAAAAA1cM/WdaAxSWcgVQrt_-KYTWnJrygMWw8HTcLACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1360"></div>
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<div>Most investors own one rental property, and the <em>average</em> net rental losses will probably be about $1,000 to $1,500. </div>
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<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fJOA94Z--0E/XqgI_sP-EAI/AAAAAAAA1cU/kvvfz_yAISsSMN9qI1wJB8a8PjjCAQ7egCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="356" data-original-height="795" data-original-width="1427"></div>
<p>The detailed Australian Taxation Office statistics <em>do</em> show that many of those investors aged between 30 and 60 choose to hold an investment property with a reportable net rental loss of between $5,000 and $10,000 per annum, partly to reduce their income tax payable. </p>
<div>Generally this cohort tends to be the white collar set, earning solid incomes in relatively speaking more secure positions.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Depreciation report (MCG)</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover, the net rental loss reported to the ATO is not the same thing as the investor's cashflow.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact it's possible to be negatively geared from a taxation perspective but still to have a positive cashflow, due to on-paper depreciation benefits and capital allowances. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>MCG's <em><strong>1000 Assets 2020</strong></em> report showed that there was a big increase in investors buying new property over a period of four years through the construction boom.<br><br>These investors tend to receive very significant depreciation benefits, but I expect there will many investors in this cohort facing negative equity as brand new property tends to...well, depreciate.</div>
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<div class="separator">MCG's study also found that investors have become more aware of depreciation benefits, and as a result they're claiming deductions sooner than they used to. </div>
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<div><em> </em></div>
<div><em>Source: MCG Quantity Surveyors</em></div>
<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em> </em></span></div>
<div>Some property investors will choose to sell, of course.<br><br>But the number of forced sellers will be lower than otherwise would've been the case due to record low mortgage rates, while borrowers have also been extended the option to switch to interest-only loans or take a 6-month repayment holiday. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A couple of years ago many reports suggested that the interest-only reset would lead to a spike in mortgage arrears, but owners adapted and arrears barely moved. <br><div> </div>
<div>
<strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
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Will investors hold or sell in this troubled time? Pete Wargent

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<p>With so many different options available for residential property investors, how do we decide on what is the best strategy when there are so many gurus out there promoting various investment strategies?</p>

<p>Whilst there is no cookie-cutter approach (and there shouldn’t be, for something so important), what I have found is that the only way to true long term wealth in property is to have a long term focus. This sounds simple, and it is but time and time again I see investors pack up and go home and give up on their dreams because ‘it didn’t work’. Sadly, had these investors had more of a long term focus, a plan, and a team around them to help them succeed, then perhaps their results would have been different. There are two components to this that cause people to give up. Firstly, they chose the wrong property, most likely in the wrong area for the wrong price, at the wrong time. Secondly, they probably sold that property because they followed the advice of well-intended family and friends, the media, or more commonly, they simply got impatient and sold up. Whatever the reason, to have long term success in property we need to take some of the focus off the ‘property’ and put some emphasis on the ‘strategy’ which is what is lacking for most investors.  </p>

<p>So if we are looking for an investment option that can take away some of the stresses and financial pains that a lot of investors face, causing them to sell and give up, then perhaps buying off the plan could be the smartest decision you ever make. Now, of course, this is just general information and may not suit everyone, however here’s a snapshot of 7.5 reasons why buying off the plan could be a good strategy for you:</p>

<p> </p>

<h2><strong>1. LESS HEADACHES </strong></h2>

<p>When building a property portfolio one of the biggest headaches and frustrations for property investors, is maintaining the asset and making sure you can manage cashflows. Often I find that investors get disheartened and frustrated with their property investing because of the ongoing costs, and it slows them down. Looking over their portfolios it's often clear that the types of property they have chosen to invest in are inappropriate for their situation. You see, an older property may need significant repairs and maintenance to keep it up to standard. Often we find that big-ticket items need to be replaced, such as hot water systems, kitchens, bathrooms, or even bigger issues like a roof replacement or rewiring that can come out of the blue. It’s surprising how many people are out there buying investment properties but not considering these huge costs that need to be factored into their overall cashflow position.</p>

<p> </p>

<h2><strong>2. BETTER CASHFLOW </strong></h2>

<p>With a nice new property available for rent, you will often find that tenants are looking for all of the amenity that new properties provide. With more and more people renting these days, it’s no surprise that tenants are looking for all of the modern conveniences that owner-occupiers enjoy. When I was growing up, we always knew which were the ‘rentals’ in an area – they were always tired and run-down properties. But now, due to house prices being out of reach for many, our society is in the middle of a shift over the next few decades of learning to become ‘renters for life’. If you are looking to rent, no doubt you will pay a slight premium to live in a property with a dishwasher, new carpet, working air-conditioning and heating and secure parking. Tenants are more likely to stay for longer leases if they are happy with the amenity of both the property and the suburb it is located. This balances out your cash flow and will help you to keep the portfolio going, without having to keep big buffers aside for repairs, that could be put to work elsewhere. </p>

<p> </p>

<h2><strong>3. TAX BENEFITS </strong></h2>

<p>As an investor, you have the luxury of claiming depreciation benefits on your property which can give you a boost in your tax return. Second hand (established) properties do not provide such substantial tax benefits which can mean that investing in new properties can help you build your portfolio faster. I always teach people that its less about the property and more about the strategy. Of course the property is important, but you need to know how the property fits into your strategy. If you have your strategy wrong, it doesn’t matter what property you buy because you won’t know how it fits into the overall plan. Using the depreciation and tax benefits to your advantage can be a great strategy for your long-term investing and can put you ahead of the rest. The government wants to give you thousands of dollars for buying off the plan new properties, why not take it?</p>

<p> </p>

<h2><strong>4. SHORT STAY </strong></h2>

<p>Depending on the location, your new property could be in an area suitable for short term accommodation. Many investors are using this approach to buy apartments in key lifestyle areas that are suitable for short stay accommodation using companies like Quickstay, AirBnB or other accommodation providers. Guests often like the amenities that a new property provides, just like a hotel room, which can assist with increasing yields. Imagine being able to stay in a well presented property that presents like a hotel, but for a significantly cheaper price. Providing you buy into an area that has good demand, this can increase your return and still provide you with a low maintenance investment that is managed by a professional company. Whilst select older properties are often suitable for this strategy, new apartments, houses and townhouses set up well, are often desirable giving that personal touch that hotels will never be able to provide.</p>

<p> </p>

<h2><strong>5. AFFORDABILITY </strong></h2>

<p>Often when buying off the plan, the development you are buying into is on land that is being redeveloped. This means that the land may have previously been used for small commercial, residential or even farm land and now due to population growth is being repurposed for higher use. Often people will be priced out of an established area that is predominately houses, and when a new development is launched, this can provide you with an opportunity to buy in to a suburb that you may not have been able to afford previously. When there is higher density, that often brings down the entry price point in an area, so for significantly less outlay than a house you may be able to secure an apartment or townhouse in a great suburb that is more affordable.</p>

<p> </p>

<h2><strong>6. SUBURB UPGRADE </strong></h2>

<p>When redevelopment is happening in an area, this may be due to regentrification or rezoning of land. This can mean there is opportunity for growth which can assist with boosting your portfolio value. Off plan properties in areas that are being redeveloped can give you access to new infrastructure such as schools and shops, and new train and other public transport options. Infill redevelopment can be a smart move as people will want to live close to existing infrastructure, whereas rezoned industrial or farming land can create entire new communities. When considering your options, you may be able to buy an older property in an inferior location, or perhaps a smaller but brand new property in a superior location with access to established infrastructure.</p>

<p> </p>

<h2><strong>7. FASTER GROWTH </strong></h2>

<p>Buying off the plan could assist with building your property portfolio faster because you can take advantage of the ‘leapfrog strategy’. Essentially, this means you save your deposit for the first property and buy off the plan. Whilst that property is under construction you are saving your deposit for the next. When the first one settles, and you start collecting rent, collect your tax benefits, then you can put the deposit down on property number two. You continue to save, and over time you will have equity in property number one. This can provide enough deposit for you to purchase number three. This is an extremely simplified version of course, however we have used this approach successfully many times and by selecting the right property if can be quite successful. This approach works with your savings ability and your tax benefits, as well as the capital growth over time rather than simply waiting for growth on its own.  </p>

<p> </p>

<h2><strong>7.5...</strong></h2>

<p>And lastly, all of this is simply <em>easier </em>because only around 7.5% of Australians invest in property, and the majority of those sell within the first 5 years. We have found that this is due to a lack of a plan, and often property just ‘didn’t work’ because buying the wrong properties can put a bad taste in your mouth. So, when planning your investment strategy, consider that buying off the plan, in the right area, with the right development, could set you on a course to continue building your portfolio when many other investors simply give up… The data shows that most people fail with their investing. Buying off the plan could be the smartest thing you ever do…</p>
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7.5 reasons why buying off the plan could be the smartest decision you ever make

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<p>Purchasing <a href="/guides/how-to-invest-in-property-in-2020-the-ultimate-guide"><u><strong>an investment property</strong></u></a> can be one of the best ways to invest your money and <a href="/guides/housing-market-effect-on-wealth"><u><strong>increase your wealth</strong></u></a>. If you invest strategically, you could generate a return through passive income and tax breaks. However, a lack of research, knowledge and <a href="/guides/top-7-tips-on-how-to-value-a-house"><u><strong>understanding of the real estate market</strong></u></a> could lead to poor financial gain. We’ve created a list of key factors to consider when securing the financial future of your investment property from choosing the right location to choosing an investment loan that is right for you. </p>

<h2><strong>1. Do your research </strong></h2>

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2020-02-27_at_10.13.43_am.png" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="385" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2020-02-27_at_10.13.43_am.png?itok=IKLA-Bv_" width="580"></a></figure><p>Always do your research before making any real estate or financial decisions. </p>

<p>When it comes to investing in property, there isn’t always a “safe option” financially, as it often requires a little financial risk to get the most return. Keep track of your investments by thoroughly <a href="/guides/understanding-the-property-cycle-when-buying"><u><strong>understanding the property cycle</strong></u></a> and always remaining ahead of the market. You should also be <a href="/guides/how-to-negotiate-when-buying-a-house"><u><strong>open to negotiation</strong></u></a> with real estate agents for better deals.  </p>

<h2><strong>2. Define your ideal tenant</strong></h2>

<p>It is essential to spend time getting to know any potential tenants, to determine whether they will be suitable for your rental property. Discuss how many people will be living in the house, whether they have stable employment or if they have lived in many rental properties previously. If they have a pet, ask whether they are house-trained.</p>

<p>While these questions may sound trivial, they could help you in selecting a great tenant who will look after your property.</p>

<h2><strong>3. Choose a popular location among renters </strong></h2>

<p>It is crucial to ensure the location of your investment property will <a href="/buildings/nbh-at-lachlan-s-line-25-27-epping-road-macquarie-park"><u><strong>attract tenants</strong></u></a> and meets the <u><strong>requirements of their lifestyles</strong></u>.</p>

<p>For example, if your ideal tenant is a student, the property should be close to a university or library, whereas, if they are a young family, the property should be near a kindergarten (childcare), primary school and/or local playground. This will help to increase the popularity of your property among property seekers with specific requirements.</p>

<h2><strong>4. Find a property that is close to public transport </strong></h2>

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2020-02-27_at_10.13.26_am.png" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="385" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2020-02-27_at_10.13.26_am.png?itok=_ZcCm1T0" width="580"></a></figure><p>Houses near public transport are a desirable feature for those who prefer <strong><a href="/news/city-of-melbourne-wants-to-see-less-cars-more-space-for-sustainable-transport-in-its-municipality">a more sustainable transport option</a></strong> and do not drive. Finding a home on a popular tram, train or bus route will become a key selling point when you go to market your home for rent.</p>

<h2><strong>5. Seek advice from renters  </strong></h2>

<p>One way to determine the suitability of a rental apartment is to talk to tenants currently living within the building. Ask them how they feel about the environment, the value for money and the attentiveness of the body corporate, as this information could give you a better idea of the quality of the building and its maintenance. You could also seek advice from successful investors who are experienced and understand the property cycle. Based on Urban data, here is <a href="/guides/what-investors-are-looking-for-in-australian-properties-based-on-urban-data"><u><strong>what investors are looking for in Australian properties</strong></u></a> and which <u><strong><a href="/guides/insider-property-guide-booming-melbourne-suburbs-you-should-be-considering">Melbourne suburb you should be considering</a>.</strong></u></p>

<h2><strong>6. Collate funds for your down payment </strong></h2>

<p>A downpayment is an initial payment in credit, cash or an equivalent form of payment, which goes towards the purchase of an expensive item such as a car or house.  When purchasing an investment property, you will be required to provide a down payment – which could cost more because mortgage insurance does not apply to investment properties. There are also additional expenses for approval requirements and renovations; you can read them <a href="/guides/top-10-hidden-costs-of-buying-a-house-or-apartment-in-2021"><u><strong>here</strong></u></a>. </p>

<h2><strong>7. Do your sums</strong></h2>

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2020-02-27_at_10.03.29_am.png" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="384" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2020-02-27_at_10.03.29_am.png?itok=lv9aS0jc" width="580"></a></figure><p>Calculate the additional income you already have and match it with the amount you can borrow. Once you’ve found a property, you are interested in purchasing, create a contingency budget to allow for any renovation expenses (if renovations are required), the overall operational cost of running an investment property and a fallback for any unforeseen issues. We recently explored how much buyers actually need to spend on an apartment; you can read about it <a href="/guides/how-much-do-you-really-need-to-spend-on-an-apartment"><u><strong>here</strong></u></a>. </p>

<h2><strong>8. Avoid overspending on your first investment</strong></h2>

<p>Investment advisors suggest that even if you are willing to spend a million dollars on an investment property - it is wise to select a property <a href="/guides/buying-right-investment-wise"><u><strong>between the lower-midrange price bracket of $225,000</strong></u></a>. Keeping the range as low as possible also keeps you in a safe-zone as an investor, as it keeps you from losing money if you do not meet your expected profits. Did you know there are also ways you can <a href="/guides/how-to-invest-in-property-with-no-money"><u><strong>invest in property with no money</strong></u></a>? </p>

<h2><strong>9. Consider investment loan options </strong></h2>

<p>When collecting funds towards your first investment property, there are several investment loans you should research before purchasing. Ideally, you may want to <a href="/guides/how-to-choose-the-right-home-loan"><u><strong>select a loan</strong></u></a> that provides you with the option to split the credit with a line-of-credit-facility. </p>

<h2><strong>10. Choose any investment partners carefully</strong></h2>

<p>If you wish to purchase your investment property with a friend or business partner instead of taking out an investment loan, you will need to choose your investment partner carefully. You should look to base this decision on their financial security, reliability, experience as an investor and the status of your relationship, as well as any financial implications of the partnership agreement. Before embarking on any financial venture with another person, it is very wise to get a contract drawn up to avoid any disputes in future (even if you don't anticipate any to arise).</p>

<h2><strong>11. Use the 1% rule</strong></h2>

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2020-02-27_at_10.03.18_am.png" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="384" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2020-02-27_at_10.03.18_am.png?itok=U26qOnU7" width="580"></a></figure><p>The real estate investment term ‘1% rule’ refers to the method investors can use to determine whether a property is worth investing in. The rule suggests that an investment property should have a monthly return of no less than 1% of the price it was purchased at, including the additional costs of renovations.</p>

<h2><strong>12. Understand the expense of hiring a property manager</strong></h2>

<p>Some property investors choose to serve as landlords, managing day to day operations and engaging with their tenant, whilst others prefer to hire an external property management service. A property manager will be available throughout the day to help your tenants with any requests, and most real estate firms also have round the clock care for renters should any issues arise. Using a <a href="/guides/tips-for-negotiating-with-real-estate-agents"><u><strong>rental agent</strong></u></a> is more of a time-saver than money saver as they do charge a fee. </p>

<h2><strong>13. Investment properties require you to fork out funds regularly</strong></h2>

<p>An investment property is not a one-off purchase and requires <a href="/guides/18-ongoing-rental-property-costs-and-which-ones-are-tax-deductible"><u><strong>ongoing maintenance</strong></u></a>. Landlords (investors) are expected to <a href="/guides/2019/06/24/own-rental-property-here-are-14-things-to-check-to-avoid-major-problems-in-future"><u><strong>financially cover issues that may occur in the house</strong></u></a>. One way to financially manage this is to create a budget or add your current household budget so you know where, how much and when to allocate funds when they are required. </p>

<p>Additional expenses include:</p>

<ul>
<li>Property tax (required)</li>
	<li>Homeowners insurance (required)</li>
	<li>Property management expenses (optional)</li>
	<li>Home-owners corporation fees (case-by-case)</li>
	<li>General upkeep costs such as cleaning and landscaping (required)</li>
</ul>
<h2><strong>14. Research the risks</strong></h2>

<p>Purchasing an investment property is no different from any other business deal in terms of the associated risks which can lead to loss of money. </p>

<ul>
<li>Some of the risks include: </li>
	<li>Your property might not meet the 1% rule </li>
	<li>You may spend more money on the renovations than anticipated</li>
	<li>The local market economy could change, for example, the value of the suburb may decrease due to an increase in crime</li>
	<li>The property taxes may be increased </li>
	<li>An accident or disaster may occur and you may have to pay for expensive repairs</li>
	<li>You could have bad tenants with poor hygiene or that break your rules, resulting in cleaning, repair or eviction cost</li>
</ul>
<h2><strong>15. Invest in high-quality fixtures </strong></h2>

<p><a href="/guides/20-things-you-should-look-out-for-before-you-buy-property"><u><strong>Before you buy property</strong></u></a>, you should look out for high-quality fixtures within the home or determine where you should include them on the property. Investing in high-quality fixtures may help prevent any incidents or damage, and limit the amount and cost of repairs required in your investment. It will also add to the design of the house and encourage tenants to take pride in and look after the property. Urban has created an <a href="/guides/home-inspection-checklist-step-by-step"><u><strong>inspection checklist</strong></u></a> that could help you determine what fixtures may need to be included, upgrades and what tenants will be looking out for in your investment property. </p>
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Olivia Round

How to ensure financial return on your property investment in 15 simple steps

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>The last few weeks have seen escalating concern that a new coronavirus (called 2019 novel coronavirus or nCoV) originating in the Chinese city of Wuhan in Hubei province will become a global pandemic.</p>
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<p><span>Concern has been heightened after the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared the outbreak an </span><span>“international public health emergency” </span><span>on 30 January and the number of cases has continued to escalate.</span></p>
<p><span>While this is first and foremost a human crisis, there has been increasing concern that the associated disruption to economic activity will trigger a global economic slump. </span></p>
<p><span>Consequently, share markets have seen falls (ranging from three per cent for global and Australian shares to around seven per cent for Asian shares and 12 per cent for Chinese shares), commodity prices have fallen, and bond yields have collapsed again. </span></p>
<p><span>While the current situation is highly uncertain, the experience with SARS, bird flu, swine flu &amp; Ebola highlight worst-case pandemic fears don</span><span>’</span><span>t usually eventuate.</span></p>
<p><strong>What do we know about this Coronavirus</strong></p>
<p><span>Here is a summary of information regarding nCoV:</span></p>
<p>Coronaviruses circulate in animals but can be transmitted to humans and affect the respiratory system. SARS in 2003 &amp; MERS in 2012 were examples. Symptoms can be treated but there are no vaccines or antiviral drugs for them (at present). Like SARS, nCoV looks to have originated in wildlife markets in China.</p>
<p>So far there are over 24,500 confirmed cases worldwide, with 99 per cent of cases in China. But the number of cases is still rising rapidly and more/faster testing could mean many more with spikes in the number of new daily cases.</p>
<p>So far the mortality rate is running at two per cent which puts it above swine flu but well below SARS (which settled around nine per cent). And of those dying, its mainly been older people or those with pre-existing conditions (as with common flu).</p>
<p>Against this, nCoV has been more contagious with total cases well above those for SARS (8000) and patients can be contagious but without symptoms for one to two weeks.</p>
<p>Containment measures – notably in China – have been more aggressive and started earlier than in the case of SARS. These include restricting travel into and out of Hubei province and various countries have restricted (and in some cases banned) foreign travellers entering from China.</p>
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<p><strong>Past experiences</strong></p>
<p>To provide some context it is worth reviewing past pandemics – both real and feared.</p>
<p>There were three influenza pandemics in the last century: 1918-19, 1957 and 1968. The 1957 and 1968 pandemics are estimated to have killed up to 4 million people. However, the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic was the most severe.</p>
<p>While the mortality rate was low, up to 50 million people died worldwide. With a big proportion of the population staying at home, economic activity was severely disrupted, although this was compounded by the ending of World War I.</p>
<p>US industrial production slumped 18 per cent between March 1918 and March 1919. Australian real GDP slumped 5.5 per cent in 1919-20 (but then rebounded 13.6 per cent in 1920-21). The share market impact is hard to discern given the ending of WWI, however US and Australian share markets rose through much of the pandemic period.</p>
<p>The SARS outbreak of 2003 is a more useful guide.</p>
<p>After emerging in China around February 2003, SARS infected about 8000 people (mostly in Asia) in 30 countries over a five-month period and had a mortality rate of about nine per cent. SARS had a big negative impact on the countries most affected as people stayed home for fear of catching it.</p>
<p>GDP in China, Hong Kong and Singapore slumped by over two per cent in the June quarter of 2003. Growth then subsequently rebounded.</p>
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<p>Reflecting SARS, Asian shares fell in April 2003, even though global shares started to move out of a three year bear market from March. The April 2003 low in Asian shares coincided with a peaking in the number of new cases.</p>
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<p>Most pandemics have taken 6 to 18 months to run their course and peter out as measures are taken to slow their spread (eg. hygiene, quarantining, banning gatherings, preventing travel). SARS ended quicker due to the nature of the virus and rapid action by authorities.</p>
<p>In 2005/2006, there was significant concern that a severe strain of bird flu (called H5N1), which was resulting in human casualties, mainly in parts of Asia where people had contact with chickens, would mutate into a form that was readily transmissible between humans.</p>
<p>However, this didn’t really eventuate and as such the economic impact was modest although it did cause bouts of volatility in share markets. Similarly, concern that the spread of swine flu would become a global pandemic rattled share markets for a while around April 2009, and Ebola did the same in 2014, but both quickly faded.</p>
<p><strong>The economic and financial impact of nCoV</strong></p>
<p>After strong double-digit gains over the last year and with investor sentiment pushing up to high levels indicating a degree of complacency, share markets were at high risk of a correction in mid Jan and the fears around coronavirus have provided the trigger.</p>
<p>Given their greater sensitivity to Chinese growth, commodity prices like Chinese shares are down by more and the Australian dollar has fallen to October lows below $US0.67. What happens from here depends on how long it takes for the outbreak to be contained. The higher number of cases than with SARS or swine flu suggests a greater economic impact.</p>
<p>But given the range of possibilities, the best way to get a handle on the economic and investment market impact is to consider several scenarios. Here we consider two.</p>
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<p>1. Containment within the next month or two – the number of cases continues to rise but it remains mainly contained to China (and Hubei) and the number of new cases starts to peak in the next month or so. This would allow travel restrictions to be removed by the June quarter. Under this scenario:</p>
<p>GDP in China and parts of Asia would likely take a two to three per cent hit (taking Chinese GDP growth from six per cent year on year in the December quarter to three to four per cent yoy in the current quarter) as workers stay home and travel dries up. With the Chinese economy now being four times the share of global GDP it was at the time of SARS, this along with some drag on growth in developed countries would knock world growth to around 2.5 per cent year on year (from around three per cent). However, growth would rebound in the June quarter as travel restrictions are removed and things return to normal.</p>
<p>Australian growth could see a 0.2 per cent hit in the current quarter mainly due to the loss of Chinese tourists (which account for 20 per cent of tourism earnings and 0.2 per cent of GDP) but also lower raw material demand and an impact on confidence. With the bushfire impact this could see GDP contract, but growth would rebound in the June quarter.</p>
<p>Against this background share markets, commodity prices and the $A could still fall a bit further in the near term but would quickly rebound by the June quarter. Easier than otherwise monetary and fiscal policies - with more stimulus measures already announced in China - would aid this.</p>
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<p>2. Global pandemic – the number of cases continues to escalate beyond China and aren’t contained until say mid-year.</p>
<p>This scenario would see a bigger and longer negativeimpact on economic activity. Global travel would collapse. Many would simply not come into work – a reasonable estimate is around 20 per cent of workers, although this might be spread over time.</p>
<p>This would see a sharp slump in global GDP and the risk of global recession. Australia would not be immune and would likely see two negative quarters of growth with flow on to education exports to China (which accounts for another 0.6 per cent of Australian GDP).</p>
<p>Share markets would likely fall sharply – maybe by 20 per cent or so - reflecting the huge economic uncertainty. Cash would be the place to be. The $A could fall to around $US0.60.However, economic activity would rebound quickly once it’s clear the pandemic is under control. Share markets are likely to anticipate this. But this wouldn’t occur till the second half of the year.</p>
<p><strong>Concluding comment and what to watch</strong></p>
<p>While there is reason for concern and it is easy to dream up nightmare scenarios, the experience with SARS, bird flu (with “predictions” it could kill as many as 150 million people) and the mini panic regarding swine flu and Ebola tell us that the worst case fears of pandemics usually don’t come to pass. Rapid containment measures provide some confidence this will be the case. As such, our base case scenario (with 75 per cent probability) is one of containment over the next month or two. This could still see more downside in share markets and bond yields in the near term, but they are likely to rebound by the June quarter as economic growth rebounds. The key things to watch are:The daily number of new cases – the SARS experience saw markets rebound once this showed signs of peaking.</p>
<p>The spread of new cases and deaths in developed countries – if this remains limited then markets will also get more confident that the economic fallout will be short lived.</p>
<p><strong>DR SHANE OLIVER </strong>is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital.</p>
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

The economic and financial impact of the Corona Virus: Shane Oliver

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<div class="column"><strong>EXPERT OBSERVER </strong></div>
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<div class="column">The past 10 years have seen pretty good returns for well- diversified investors.</div>
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<div class="column">The median balanced growth superannuation fund returned 7.3% pa over the five years to July and 8.2% pa over 10 years and that’s after fees and taxes. This is impressive given that inflation has been around 2%.</div>
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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/medium%20term%20returns%201%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </div>
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<p><span>Shares and growth assets have literally climbed a wall of worry this decade with a revolving door list of worries around public debt, the Eurozone, deflation, inflation, rate hikes, Trump, North Korea, China, trade wars, growth, house prices, etc. </span></p>
<p><span>But returns benefitted from the recovery after the GFC and a search for yield as interest rates have collapsed depressing yields on most assets. But </span><span>– </span><span>while it sounds like a broken record </span><span>– </span><span>the decline in yields points to eventually more constrained returns ahead.</span></p>
<p><strong>Declining yields = falling medium-term return potential</strong></p>
<p><span>Investment returns have two components: yield (or income flow) and capital growth. </span></p>
<p><span>Looking at both of these components points to lower average investment returns over the next five years compared to the last five years.</span></p>
<p><span> It</span><span>’</span><span>s basic to investing that the price of an asset moves inversely to its yield all other things being equal. Suppose an asset pays $10 a year in income and suppose its price is $100, which means an income flow or yield of 10%. </span></p>
<p><span>If interest rates are cut resulting in increased demand for the asset, as investors search for a higher yield, such that its </span>price rises to $120 given the $10 annual income flow its yield will have fallen to 8.3% (ie $10 divided by $120) as its price has gone up by 20%. So, yield moves inversely to price. But as yields decline it means a lower return potential going forward.</p>
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<p><span>Since the early 1980s investment yields have collapsed. Back then the RBA's "cash rate" was around 14%, 1-year bank term deposit rates were nearly 14%, 10-year bond yields were around 13.5%, commercial and residential property yields were around 8-9% and dividend yields on shares were around 6.5% in Australia and 5% globally. </span></p>
<p><span>This meant that investments were already providing very high income so only modest capital growth was needed for growth assets to generate good returns. </span></p>
<p><span>So, most assets had very strong returns and balanced growth super fund returns averaged 14.1% in nominal terms and 9.4% in real terms between 1982 and 1999 (after taxes and fees).</span></p>
<p><span>Over the last four decades, investment yields have mostly fallen quite sharply. See the next chart.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/medium%20term%20returns%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/25/medium%20term%20returns%202.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>Today the cash rate is 1%, 1-year bank term deposit rates are 1.5%, 10-year bond yields are 0.9%, gross residential property yields are around 3%, commercial property yields are just below 5%, dividend yields are still around 5.5% for Australian shares (with franking credits) but they are 2.5% for global shares. </span></p>
<p><span>This points to a lower return potential for a diversified mix of assets.</span></p>
<p><span>What’s more</span><span>, the capital growth potential from growth assets is likely to be constrained relative to the past reflecting more constrained nominal economic growth. Several megatrends are likely to impact growth over the medium term. These include:</span></p>
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<li>
<p><span>Continued slower growth in household debt.</span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>An ongoing retreat from globalisation, deregulation and small </span>government in favour of populist, less market friendly policies.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>A shift in corporate focus from profit </span><span>to “balanced scorecards”.</span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>Rising geopolitical tensions </span><span>– </span><span>notably as the US attempts to </span>constrain the rising power of China as evident in the trade war.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>Aging and slowing populations </span><span>– </span><span>resulting in slowing labour </span>force growth and rising pressure on public sector budgets.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>Technological innovation and automation.</span></p>
</li>
</ul>
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<p><span>Continuing rapid growth in Asia and </span><span>China’s middle class</span><span>.</span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>Pressure to slow emissions &amp; the impact of global warning.</span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p>A large shift to sustainable energy as its cost continues to fall. Most of these will constrain economic growth &amp; hence returns.</p>
</li>
</ul>
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<p><strong>Medium-term return projections</strong></p>
<p>Our approach to get a handle on medium-term return potential is to start with current yields for each asset class and apply simple and consistent assumptions regarding capital growth reflecting the above-mentioned megatrends. We also prefer to avoid forecasting and like to keep the analysis simple.</p>
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<ul>
<li>For bonds, the best predictor of future medium-term returns is current bond yields as can be seen historically in the next chart. If a 10-year bond yield is held to maturity its initial yield (0.93% right now in Australia) will be its return over 10 years (ie 0.93%). We use 5-year bond yields as they more closely match the maturity of bond indexes.</li>
</ul>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/medium%20term%20returns%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/25/medium%20term%20returns%203.jpg" alt=""></p>
<ul>
<li>
<p><span>For equities, current dividend yields plus trend nominal GDP growth (a proxy for capital growth) does a good job of predicting medium-term returns.</span><span>1</span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>For property, we use current rental yields and likely trend inflation as a proxy for rental and capital growth.</span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>For unlisted infrastructure, we use current average yields and capital growth just ahead of inflation.</span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>In the case of cash, the current rate is of no value in assessing its medium-term return. So we allow for some rise in cash rates over time.</span></p>
</li>
</ul>
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<div class="column">Our latest return projections are shown in the next table.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/medium%20term%20returns%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </div>
<div class="column"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/25/medium%20term%20returns%204.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<p><span>The second column shows each asset’s current income yield, </span><span>the third shows their 5-10 year growth potential, and the final column their total return potential. Note that:</span></p>
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<ul>
<li>We assume inflation averages around or just below central bank targets.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>For Australia we have adopted a relatively conservative growth assumption reflecting slower productivity growth.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>We allow for forward points in the return projections for global assets based around current market pricing. </li>
</ul>
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<p><strong>Key observations</strong></p>
<p><span>Several things are worth noting from these projections.<br></span></p>
</div>
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<ul>
<li>The medium-term return potential has continued to fall due largely to the rally in most assets and fall in investment yields. Projected returns using this approach for a diversified growth mix of assets have fallen from 10.3% pa at the low point of the GFC in March 2009, to 8.6% five years ago, to 6.2% a year ago and to now just 5.6%.</li>
</ul>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/medium%20term%20returns%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/25/medium%20term%20returns%205.jpg" alt=""></p>
<ul>
<li>Government bonds offer low returns due to ultra-low yields. Yes, bond returns have been strong lately as yields have collapsed pushing up bond prices. But this is no guide to future returns, particularly if bond yields stop falling.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Unlisted commercial property and infrastructure continue to come out relatively well, reflecting their higher yields.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Australian shares stack up well on the basis of yield, but it’s still hard to beat Asian/emerging shares for growth potential.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The downside risks to our medium-term return projections are that: the world plunges into a recession driving another major bear market in shares or that investment yields are pushed up to more normal levels as inflation rebounds causing large capital losses. Just allow that drawdowns in returns tend to be infrequent but concentrated and it’s been a while since the last big one. See the first chart.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The upside risks are (always) less obvious but could occur if we see improving global growth but inflation remaining low.</li>
</ul>
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<p><strong>Implications for investors</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>
<p><span>First, have reasonable return expectations. Low yields &amp; constrained GDP growth indicate </span><span>it’s </span><span>not reasonable to expect sustained double-digit or even high single digit returns. In fact, the trend decline in the rolling 10-year average of both nominal and real super fund returns since the 1990s indicates we have been in a lower-return world for many years </span><span>– it’s </span><span>just that it only becomes clear every so often with bear markets and then strong returns in between.</span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>Second, remember that responding to a lower return potential from major asset classes by allocating more to growth assets does mean taking on more risk.</span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>Third, bear markets are painful, but they do push up the medium-term return potential of investment markets to higher levels and so provide opportunities for investors.</span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>Fourth, some of the decline in return potential reflects very low inflation </span><span>– </span><span>r</span><span>eal returns haven’t fallen as much.</span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>Finally, focus on assets with decent sustainable income flow as they provide confidence regarding future returns.</span></p>
</li>
</ul>
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<div class="page" title="Page 2"><strong> Key points </strong></div>
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<li>
<p><span>The ongoing slide in investment yields across major asset classes points to a more constrained medium- term return outlook. For a diversified mix of assets, this has now fallen to around 5.6% pa on our projections.</span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>The key for investors is to have realistic return expectations; allow that inflation is also low so real returns </span><span>aren’t down as </span><span>much; and focus on assets with decent and sustainable income.</span></p>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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<p><span><strong> </strong><em><strong>DR SHANE OLIVER </strong>Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital</em></span></p>
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Investment returns have been good, but likely to slow over the next five years: Shane Oliver 

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>It’s easy to ask businesses to invest more, hard to get them to do it. <span class="attribution"><span class="source"><br></span></span></p>
<p>You know the economy is in trouble when a clever and successful Liberal Party treasurer resorts to doing an <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Warren" target="_blank">Elizabeth Warren</a> impersonation in front of the Business Council of Australia in hopes of boosting investment.</p>
<p>That’s what <a href="https://joshfrydenberg.com.au/latest-news/making-our-own-luck-australias-productivity-challenge/" target="_blank">Josh Frydenberg</a> did on Monday, saying:</p>
<p>Share buybacks and capital returns are becoming increasingly prominent and the default option for corporates. But is a buyback always the best option for the future growth of the company and therefore the economy?</p>
<p>Let’s set aside the fact that the recent uptick in buybacks was almost entirely due to a $15.4 billion capital return from BHP after selling off what was left of its ill-fated shale oil and gas investments in the United States.</p>
<p><strong>Are buybacks bad?</strong></p>
<p>A bunch of US Democratic presidential hopefuls sure think so. Self-proclaimed “Democratic Socialist” Bernie Sanders joined with the more centrist Senate Minority leader Chuck Schumer to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/03/opinion/chuck-schumer-bernie-sanders">propose legislation</a> that would require companies spending money to buy back their own shares to raise the minimum wage of their workers $15 an hour and provide seven days of paid annual sick leave.</p>
<p>A number of other prominent Democrats have similar ideas, including Warren, and fellow Senators Kamala Harris and Cory Booker.</p>
<p>There is a myth that share buybacks are some kind of “sure thing” benefit to shareholders that is worth dispelling.</p>
<p>The myth goes like this.</p>
<p>A company buys back some number of its outstanding shares from willing sellers. That reduces the number of shares, but future profits haven’t changed. So, earnings per share go up, and so does the stock price.</p>
<p>That’s said to be is a win for the remaining shareholders, but the business won’t invest as much in capital expenditures and workers might miss out on pay rises.</p>
<p>This logic is tantalising, but wrong. What is overlooked in that the business used cash on hand to buy back its stock. So the value of the company to the shareholders who didn’t sell isn’t the same – it’s been reduced by the amount of the buyback.</p>
<p>The key question is whether that cash can be used more productively inside the company than paid out. US firms like Apple and Boeing have recently undertaken significant buybacks and seen their share price rise relative to the broader stock market. That’s the market telling us that the money is better used outside of Apple and Boeing than in.</p>
<p>The correct term for buybacks like that that increase value is “good corporate governance”, not “short-sighted capitalism” or “theft”.</p>
<p><strong>How to get business to invest more</strong></p>
<p>Having said that, Frydenberg was spot on in his analysis of what is needed to boost wages in Australia:</p>
<p>If we are going to create new jobs and enable people to earn more for what they do, we need businesses to increase their capital expenditure and to adopt new technologies and business practices that effectively integrates capital with labour.“</p>
<p>The question is how to do that.</p>
<p>One thing’s for sure, trying to bully companies into doing it isn’t the answer.</p>
<p>Business invest earnings in plants and equipment when the economic environment is attractive.</p>
<p>Bureau of Statistics figures released Thursday made clear that business have a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5625.0" target="_blank">negative view</a> of that environment.</p>
<p>Capital expenditures were down a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% in the June quarter – worse than market expectations – and down 1% over the year.</p>
<p><strong>The problem with an investment allowance</strong></p>
<p>One idea the treasurer is reportedly considering is a so-called ”<a href="https://www.bca.com.au/in_the_absence_of_tax_cuts_investment_allowance_is_key" target="_blank">investment allowance</a>“, much like the investment allowance the <a href="https://www.acra.com.au/government-investment-allowance-10-tax-rebate/" target="_blank">Rudd government</a> introduced during the global financial crisis between December 2008 to December 2009.</p>
<p>It would give businesses an immediate tax deduction of, say, 10% on spending on equipment and plant and machinery, in additional to the normal annual deduction for depreciation.</p>
<p>The problem with such allowances is that they don’t provide certainty. The fact that they have been brought in and quickly ended makes it look as if they will be taken away. So businesses use them to bring forward investments rather than make long term plans.</p>
<p>And it is hard to limit them to "additional investment” as Frydenberg said he wanted to on Monday.</p>
<p>By contrast, cutting the company tax rate would signal a permanent shift in policy. It’s politically difficult, which perversely would make it a credible signal about future conditions.</p>
<p>Cutting the rate right away, to 25%, would help move us away from one of the highest corporate tax rates in the developed world, and would boost investment.</p>
<p>The best <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20130570" target="_blank">empirical evidence</a> is that about half the benefit of company tax cuts goes to workers. And as <a href="https://www.afr.com/opinion/the-evidence-is-in-cutting-australias-corporate-tax-will-cut-inequality-20180129-h0prje" target="_blank">I wrote early last year</a>, that evidence suggests that young, low-skilled, and female workers benefit the most.</p>
<p>We also need major government investments in physical and social infrastructure to deal with flagging demand and create an environment in which companies will find it worthwhile to invest.</p>
<p>In the low-growth, low-inflation, secular stagnation world we are in budget surpluses are neither prudent nor evidence of sound economic management. They are a death sentence for jobs and growth.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122614/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a></em></p>
<p><em>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-business-investment-is-flatlining-and-it-isnt-clear-that-suasion-or-a-special-allowance-will-help-122614" target="_blank">original article</a>.</em></p>
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