Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Housing Affordability

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The housing focus in the 2017 Budget sends an important signal to the community the Government is serious about delivering more affordable housing, according to the Housing Industry Association.
Graham Wolfe, deputy managing director, HIA said there are no simple solutions but providing well targeted assistance to help first home buyers save for their first home and to providers of community housing through the ‘National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation’ will make a difference.
“Although not an affordability measure, the incentives for ‘downsizers’ will also help stimulate the supply of new housing more appropriate to the needs of our seniors," he said.
“Much of the work to improve housing affordability rests with state and local governments and the Budget has made significant commitments to encourage action.
"The National Housing Infrastructure Facility has $1billion behind it is more than just window dressing.
“Linking the National Housing and Homelessness Agreement’s $1.8 billion to the states and local governments delivering improved housing supply and better planning systems is a significant and welcome reform.
“The ‘city deals’ expansion into smaller scale projects is also a welcome development: the big ticket projects are important but much can be achieved by removing obstacles to more efficient delivery of homes.
“However HIA is concerned about the negative impacts on residential building from the Budget’s measures on foreign investment.
“Plans to tax vacant homes, limit the share of foreign investment in new projects and increase foreign investor duties all send exactly the wrong signal to potential investors in Australia.
“HIA would urge the Government to build on the Budget’s initial steps towards more affordable housing by making this a standing item on the COAG agenda.
“In the meantime HIA will continue to urge the Government to undertake a thorough national inquiry into housing affordability and establish a mechanism for the regular monitoring of the crucial supply of land for the residential building industry."
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

2017 Budget is a step towards housing affordability: HIA

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The Real Estate Institute of Australia has applauded announcements made in the 2017 Budget to address housing supply and affordability.
Malcolm Gunning, president, REIA said he is pleased that the Government reiterated that it will not remove or limit negative gearing or change the capital gains tax as this would increase the tax burden on Australians trying to provide a future for their families.
“The boost to infrastructure spending, measures to improve housing supply, the extension of small business concessions, and the retention of the current negative gearing as well as CGT arrangements for taxation of property investments will help ensure that the property sector remains an important contributor to economic growth,”  he said.
"This recognises that the current arrangements increase the supply of housing for our growing population, keep rents affordable and ease the burden on social housing.
“With home ownership in Australia declining and first homebuyers finding it increasingly difficult to enter the housing market, allowing first homebuyers to build deposits with superannuation through voluntary contributions is welcome.
“Whilst REIA has advocated for a more aggressive approach to bridging the deposit gap by allowing first homebuyers access to existing balances in superannuation accounts the Government’s initiative will reduce the time taken to save for a deposit by around 25 percent.
“The change in the threshold for foreign resident capital gains tax withholding to $750,000 from the current $2 million is not welcome and could be considered misguided as most foreign investors buy higher valued properties in Sydney and Melbourne and to a lesser extent in Brisbane.
“It is more red tape and not necessary. With the median house price of $743,776 across Australia this will mean most properties will be subject to this requirement and results in more work for sales agents and conveyancers and depending on the workload this presents for the ATO may even delay settlements.
“With forecasts of moderate growth, an improvement in the unemployment rate, inflation well within the RBA’s target zone, the Budget is welcome news for home owners, prospective buyers and renters."
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2017 Budget welcome news for home owners, prospective buyers and renters: REIA 

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Federal Budget salary sacrifice scheme FHB savings will provide some benefit but needs to be kept in perspective.
The reality is most first home buyers and low to mid income earners earn generally relatively low marginal tax rates. Nonetheless, it does provide an incentive to save for a home deposit, which is great. It provides some structure and discipline which FHBs need.
The ghost house tax scheme doesn't really have an impact on new home builds at all. The quantum of the tax will need to be very substantial to have any real impact.
The reality is the foreign investors engaging in these practices are wealthy Chinese trying to get money out of China into a safe haven. The houses purchased by foreigners are often very high value homes (blue chip areas), so any impact the penalty has will only help renters at the higher end, not first home buyers. It will simply be seen by most foreigners as a tax on getting their money out of China.
It's a shame not more is being done around first home buyer's grants, as it's simple and effective.
The minister is concerned about grants ending up in the pockets of medium density developers and already wealthy home owners, and that's fair enough. Government should consider either doubling FHB grants for new build homes only, or scrap the grant completely for FHB of established, to push demand into new housing.
Reality is when the FHB grant is used in the established property market it only fuels prices and the problem (and gets partly recycled to the states in stamp duty). However, with new builds it creates real jobs and pushes demand away from inner suburbs alleviating constant price pressure.
Another scheme could be to incentivise land developers to sell a certain percentage of projects to FHB's at discounted rates. The incentive could be a lower corp tax rate if the percentage threshold is met each year, encouraging developers to push down prices to FHB's to hit the quota each year.
Government should also be looking at the development of its own land with some projects exclusively dedicated to FHB's, with appropriate pricing set which in turns keeps other developers in the surrounding areas sharp in terms of their own pricing."
Housing affordability has become a significant issue over recent years, driven by exponential growth in median house prices and relatively low levels of wage growth.
While being the most popular cities in which to own a home, Sydney and Melbourne clearly face the most stress when it comes to housing affordability given the lack of new supply to meet growing demand. In addition to this, the growth seen in median housing prices is pushing first home ownership out of reach for many.
First home buyers grants are simple and well understood, whereas new schemes such as access to super or a shared equity scheme are complicated and diminish longer term value and benefits for home buyers.
Creating incentives for first home buyers to buy a new home in outer suburbs or even regional areas (as recently announced by the Victorian state government) are terrific initiatives. Not only do they help get more people into their first home, they also drive demand away from existing properties (mainly in the inner suburbs) which over time will help alleviate pressure on housing prices across the board.
The latest housing affordability report by iBuildNew, the leading online listing site of homebuilders and land developers, reveals the majority (63 percent) of Australian first home buyers (FHBs) believe an affordable house costs less than $450,000, and for 85 percent of FHBs, it means less than $600,000.
The national findings revealed:
<ul>
<li>63 percent of first home buyers believe an affordable house costs less than $450,000 (median prices in Sydney are $1,152,000, thus 250% disparity)</li>
<li>64 percent of first home buyers are only prepared to look at properties within their suburb of choice or surrounding suburbs</li>
<li>76 percent of first home buyers can't get into the property market because they can't save the deposit or secure a loan</li>
<li>Only 22 percent of first home buyers are considering a new home build while 60 per cent are focused on buying an established home or townhouse</li>
<li>55 percent of survey respondents did not think using their superannuation savings would help them secure their first home</li>
</ul>
Daniel Peterson is a CEO at iBuildNew. He can be contacted <a href="https://www.ibuildnew.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Government should consider doubling FHB grants for new build homes only: Daniel Peterson

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Amid increasingly irrational media coverage of property markets, occasionally there is a mild outbreak of common sense.
It’s doesn’t happen often, but sometimes someone who understands real estate and doesn’t have publicity as their prime objective will comment – and a media outlet will actually print it.
It’s unusual because media tends to favour sensational negatives from non-specialists for whom the main motivation is generation of publicity.
Amid the great seething mass of nonsense about housing affordability – dominated by people arguing their vested interest, political world-view or pet theory, often with a silver-bullet miracle solution – there is the occasional commentator who understands the issue.
This rare moment of common sense on the affordability issue came from Ken Morrison, CEO of the Property Council of Australia:
“For 20 years we have had a logjam of costly regulation, poor planning decisions and excessive taxation across all levels of government. This has driven up construction costs, impeded supply and resulted in the dramatic increase in house prices in our major cities …
“This affordability cauldron has taken years to develop, and it will take concerted effort over many years to unwind ...
"Too much of the housing affordability debate has misdiagnosed the problems, focused on measures that won't do anything to fix affordability, or set out to blame scapegoats for political convenience.”
That’s the best summary of the issue I’ve seen in all these years of hot air, parliamentary inquiries, political rhetoric, media outrage and lack of decisive action. But it has been drowned by the tsunami of emotive misinformation that has dominated the “debate”.
Then we have the issue of the alleged bubble, over-valuation of housing and impending collapse of values – usually from overseas observers looking at Australia through a very long telescope, although also from the usual local suspects such as Shane “Why can’t I ever get this right?” Oliver or Steve “Why are people still listening to me?” Keen.
Media just loves hearing from anyone silly enough to predict that our housing values will fall massively.
And then, recently, out of the blue someone with a rational, well-thought-out viewpoint was given some minor airplay.
Stephen Halmarick, chief economist at Colonial First State Global Asset Management (Australia’s biggest fund manager), said that the risks of a residential property crash were being exaggerated. He said he’s heard stories of impending doom in the property market for most of his 30-year career, but he doesn’t see any more risk of a crash this time.
“I do get a little bit worked up sometimes when I read in the paper that there will be lots of mortgage stress if interest rates rise sharply,” Halmarick said. “But inflation would have to increase dramatically above the target range before that occurs. So you ask yourself the probability of those things happening - and I think it is pretty low …
“I’ve seen so-called experts from overseas — usually Americans — saying that the housing market in Australia is a bubble that’s going to burst and take the banking system with it. They’ve been telling me that for 25 years and they’re still wrong.”
While he conceded that there are pockets of concern in the eastern capital cities, Halmarick said the Australian housing market “isn’t as vulnerable as some of the headlines would lead you to believe”. And he does not see much risk to the financial system from the property market.
“People just look at gross debt to income, which is high, at 190%,” he said. “But if you look at net debt to income — taking account of the redraw facilities — household debt has been roughly flat since 2006 because people have used the lower interest rates to repay their mortgages faster.
“So the value of housing assets has gone up a lot, as have super funds and other investments of households. So their net wealth continues to rise and is actually close to record highs.”
Many articles have characterised the current situation as a national property boom, with prices either soaring or skyrocketing – everywhere, apparently – and “white hot” markets running rampant with growth that is unprecedented.
And then recently Property Observer quietly put that into perspective with some data which showed that, compared to the previous cycle, it’s all far from extraordinary and unprecedented.
It reported that capital city dwelling values (the average across the eight cities) have risen 45 percent in the past seven years, compared to a rise of 98 percent in the previous seven years (2000 to 2007).
“So far this decade, dwelling values growth is less than half that over the same period last decade,” Property Observer reported.
This is because that previous period included the last time Australia had a genuine nationwide property boom. In 2003, according to ABS data, every capital city grew at least 13 percent in terms of median house prices, with four cities above 20 percent growth.
We haven’t had anything remotely like that this time around. The overall city growth figure for the past seven years is relatively low because only Sydney has had consecutive years of double-digit growth, while Melbourne has only recently challenged. Perth and Darwin have been going backwards for four years, while Adelaide and Brisbane have delivered very little growth. Hobart and Canberra have recently sprung to life.
So the scenario across the past four years has been big performance in Sydney, un-matched by any other city. Sydney’s situation dominates coverage by media, which has tended to extrapolate the city’s growth and pricing levels to the rest of the nation, creating a national crisis.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Common sense can prevail in the housing affordability issue: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/77308/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Australians are concerned about housing affordability, so much so that 45.4 percent say they would be willing to see the value of their home stop growing to improve the situation, only 31.8 percent of those polled wouldn’t. 
An ANU poll shows 51.7 percent of Australians are also in favour of removing tax concessions like negative gearing.
The poll surveyed 2,513 people (representative of the population) and found 63.6 percent were willing to see an increase in supply of public housing. Only 32.3 percent are opposed to relaxing planning restrictions. 
With these numbers in mind, it is perhaps surprising that state and federal governments have done so little of any substance in housing policy for decades, if anything they’ve contributed to the problem rather than improved the situation.
Potential policy changes that many believe will improve housing affordability, including removing or reducing tax incentives such as the capital gains tax discount or removing supply impediments, have all been considered too politically difficult by the current government.
The government has justified this by playing to the fear that the value of people’s home may decline or that more liberal planning arrangements may mean that new buildings may spoil the look and feel of local neighbourhoods. 
The latest ANUpoll shows Australians are very concerned that future generations may be locked out of home ownership. Three quarters believe home ownership is part of the Australian way of life.
In terms of their own investments we found that nearly 68 percent of homeowners cite emotional security, stability and belonging as a reason for becoming a homeowner. In terms of security factors, 51 percent cite financial security, 42 percent refer to “renting is dead money” and 41 percent cite security of tenure and being able to “bang nails in the wall”. 
Of those families who have an investment property (17 percent in this poll) the primary motivation for the investment was a “secure place to store money” (27.4 percent) closely followed by rental income (24.3 percent). Only 11.9 percent cited negative gearing as the primary motivator and 13.7 percent were motivated primarily by the capital gains discount. 
Housing remains easily the most popular investment vehicle, with 30 percent saying their preferred investment for spare cash would be an investment property, followed by 18.5 percent preferring to upgrade their own home. Only 12.6 percent preferred shares as an investment. 
In spite of recent talk of a housing bubble the general population is not particularly concerned with immediate price drops, with 85 percent expecting house prices to rise over the coming five years. Only 5.4 percent expect prices to fall and just 1.7 percent expect prices to decrease a lot.
If interest rates were to increase by 2 percentage points, 6.4 percent of mortgage holders expected to be in “a lot” of financial difficulty and 16.7 percent in “quite a bit”. Only 27.9 percent would be in no difficulty. While financial difficulty does not mean default, in mortgage markets it may not take a large share of loans to default to cause financial problems for an economy.
As pointed out earlier negative gearing was the least cited reason for property investment which suggests removing the incentive would at least not make a dramatic difference to the level of housing investment in Australia.
The ANUpoll shows that the public are concerned about housing affordability and where policy is directed at improving affordability they are likely to be supportive. The policy options, be they demand side - reducing tax incentives, or supply side - building more dwellings and/or relaxing planning restrictions, are available, but greater political nerve may be required to undertake such options.
Ben Phillips is associate professor, Centre for Social Research and Methods (CSRM), Australian National University and author for The Conversation.
He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ben-phillips-98866" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Government out of touch on housing policies ahead of budget: poll

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GUEST OBSERVER
Encouraging senior Australians to downsize their homes is one of the more popular ideas to make housing more affordable.
The trouble is, incentives for downsizing would hit the budget, but make little difference to housing affordability.
It sounds good: new incentives would encourage seniors to move to housing that better suits their needs, while freeing up equity for their retirement and larger homes for younger families. 
But the reality is different. Research shows most seniors are emotionally attached to their home and neighbourhood and don’t want to downsize. 
When people do downsize, financial incentives are generally not the big things on their minds. And so most of the budget’s financial incentives will go to those who were going to downsize anyway.
Financial barriers to downsizing
There are three financial hurdles to downsizing. Downsizers risk losing some or all of their Age Pension, because the family home is exempt from the pension assets test, but any home equity unlocked by downsizing is not. 
Downsizers also have to stump up the stamp duty on any new home they buy. For a senior purchasing the median-priced home in Sydney that’s now A$32,000. Finally earnings from the cash released are taxed, whereas capital gains on the home are not.
The Turnbull government has flagged the possibility of financial incentives in next week’s federal budget for superannuants and pensioners to downsize their home. 
One proposal would exempt downsizers from the A$1.6 million cap on super balances eligible for tax-free earnings in retirement, or from the A$100,000 annual cap on post-tax contributions. But this would benefit only the very wealthiest retirees – just 60,000 retirees have super fund balances exceeding A$1.6 million. 
More seniors would benefit from a proposal to exempt them from stamp duty when purchasing a smaller home. And many would benefit from a Property Council proposal to quarantine some portion of the proceeds from the pension assets test for up to a decade. 
The trouble with all these proposals is that they would hit the budget – because everyone who downsized would get the benefits – but they would not encourage many more seniors to downsize. 
Staying - or downsizing – is seldom about the money
Research shows that for two-thirds of older Australians, the desire to “age in place” is the most important reason for not selling the family home. Often they stay put because they can’t find suitable housing in the same local area.
In established suburbs where many seniors live, there are relatively few smaller dwellings because planning laws restrict subdivision. And even if the new house is next door, there’s an emotional cost to leaving a long-standing home, and to packing and moving. 
And so, few older Australians downsize their home. According to the Productivity Commission, about 20% aged 60 or over have sold their home and purchased a less expensive one since turning 50. Another 15% have “strong intentions” to do so in the future. 
When older Australians do downsize, their decision is dominated by non-financial considerations, such as a preference for a different style of house and living, a concern that it is getting too hard to maintain the house and garden, or the loss of a partner.
These emotional factors typically dwarf financial considerations. According to surveys, no more than 15% of downsizers are motivated by financial gain. Stamp duty costs were a barrier for only about 5% of those thinking of downsizing. Only 1% of seniors listed the impact on their pension as their main reason for not downsizing.
There are better and cheaper ways to encourage seniors to downsize
If governments do want to use financial incentives to encourage downsizing, budget sticks would be cheaper and fairer than budget carrots. Even if they have little effect on downsizing rates, at least they would contribute to much-needed budget repair and economic growth.
The federal government should include the value of the family home above some threshold – such as A$500,000 – in the Age Pension assets test. This would encourage a few more seniors to downsize. More importantly, it would make pension arrangements fairer, and contribute up to A$7 billion a year to the budget. 
Asset-rich, income-poor retirees could continue to receive a full pension by borrowing against the value of the home until the house is sold. The federal government would then recover the cost from the proceeds of the sale. If well designed, this scheme would have almost no effect on retirees – instead it would primarily reduce inheritances.
State governments should abolish stamp duties on property, and replace them with a general property tax, as the ACT Government is doing. This would encourage downsizing, although only at the margins. 
But the real policy justification is that it would help working age households to take a better job that’s only accessible by moving house, and so improve economic growth. It’s a big prize: a national shift from stamp duties to broad-based property taxes could add up to A$9 billion a yearto the economy. 
In short, the downsizing debate is a prime example of how governments prefer politically easy options with cosmetic appeal, but little real effect, on housing affordability. If they’re serious about making it easier for young Australians to buy a home, they will have to make tougher policy choices.
Brendan Coates<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-coates-154644" rel="author"> </a>is fellow, Grattan Institute and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-coates-154644" target="_blank">here</a>.
John Daley is Chief Executive Officer, Grattan Institute and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" target="_blank">here</a>.
Both are authors for The Conversation.
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Why older Australians don’t downsize and the limits to what the government can do about it

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The CoreLogic Perceptions of Housing Affordability survey conducted by Galaxy Research reveals the emergence of an increasingly dependent generation, with young people battling housing affordability resigned to living with their parents for longer.
The Perceptions of Housing Affordability report shows that almost two-thirds of those living at home (62 percent) can’t afford to move out, while 21 percent of those aged 18 or over and living in the family home expect to remain with their parents until they are at least 30 years old.
This phenomenon could see the rise of ‘Cubby House Syndrome’, whereby parents try and fashion some sort of independent living arrangements for their adult children on their existing premises.
Coined by CoreLogic chief executive officer Lisa Claes, ‘Cubby House Syndrome’ could be the reluctant compromise for young people unable to follow the traditional rite of passage of buying their own home.
“Protracted affordability pressures means the outlook is bleak for many young people who want to fly the nest, so parents and their offspring need to be increasingly resourceful and innovative in the way they approach this challenge,” she said.
“On the plus side, parents may have space like a garage or rumpus room at their disposal, and with a little creativity, could make use of it to give young people some semblance of independence, even when they can’t afford to fly the nest completely. ‘Cubby Houses’ could well be the new granny flats.”
While 62 percent say having a well-paid job is the best help to get on the property ladder, 30 percent say they are holding out for an inheritance to help them buy their first home, or relying on some assistance from their family.
“If you’re not downsizing your property, freeing up equity and able to give your kids a helping hand that way, and then look at the land you have at your disposal,” says Claes.
“Extending your home outwards is another option. For frustrated Millennials, it could be a happy medium between living at home with your parents and moving out to struggle street.”
Getting on the property ladder remains a priority for young Australians, despite growing fears that the dream of home ownership is drifting further out of reach.
The Perceptions of Housing Affordability report indicates almost two-thirds (62 percent) of Australians believe housing affordability is worse than it was a year ago, with a similar number (58 percent) believing the outlook for next year will remain the same or deteriorate further.
While the vast majority (89 percent) of non-homeowners believe it’s important to own a property, 87 percent are concerned they cannot afford to do so.
Furthermore, more than three-quarters (76 percent) of existing homeowners are concerned about moving to their next property, rising to 88 percent among apartment owners.
Nationally, saving for a deposit is perceived to be the biggest impediment to buying a property, followed by stamp duty costs, and the threat posed by foreign buyers.
Stamp duty was of greatest concern in NSW, South Australia and the Northern Territory (48 percent), with fears about finding a deposit most impacting residents of Queensland (48 percent), Western Australia (47 percent) and Tasmania (46 percent).
Meeting repayments was of greatest concern in NSW (41 percent) and Western Australia (40 percent), while NSW (46 percent) and Victoria (44 percent) also highlighted foreign buyers as an impediment to housing affordability.
The impact of negative gearing as an impediment to home ownership was felt most strongly in New South Wales (33 percent), followed by Tasmania and the ACT (31 percent), and Victoria (30 percent).
Overall, respondents highlighted removal of stamp duty (73 percent) and government assistance (71 percent) as being the most helpful strategies to solving the problem while highlighting the need for job creation in areas with more affordable house prices (63 percent) and improving transport links (61 percent).
However, despite housing affordability concerns and perceived impediments to buying a property, respondents revealed a lack of knowledge pertaining to available options to help them enter the property market.
Just half (51 percent) of respondents were aware about stamp duty concessions in place, 42 percent knew there are ways to buy a property with less than 20 percent deposit, and 25 percent understood there are restrictions on foreigners buying property in Australia.
For prospective homebuyers, price (79 percent) is the most important factor in choosing where to live, followed by transport links (52 percent) and proximity to work (45 percent). 
However, buyers are willing to compromise, with 33 percent stating they would make concessions regarding a more affordable property, and 27 percent saying they would be flexible with moving further away from work.
In contrast, location remains a sticking point, with only 14 percent willing to move interstate and 21% willing to move to a less desirable area to find affordable housing.
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Rising house prices putting millennials at risk of ‘cubby house syndrome’

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The Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer House Price Expectations Index fell 1.1 percent in April but at 151.4 remains well above the long run average of 126, according to Westpac’s latest Red Book report.
Adjusting for seasonality, expectations look to have eased slightly since January Westpac says.
“While recent moves by regulators and in interest rates may have contributed to the April move, the cooling in price expectations is modest at best.
That is not surprising – while the intent may be clear, regulatory changes are less ‘visible’ for consumers than RBA rate moves and their ultimate impact more difficult to assess,” the report stated.
Price expectations may only respond once markets have shifted Westpac says.
Click to enlarge
“It is worth noting what happened during the previous round of regulatory tightening, announced in December 2014 and deployed in 2015.
The main impact on auctions and finance activity came in 2015 H2 with price growth stalling flat late in the year and in early 2016.
Consumers’ price expectations started to fall from mid-2015, the index sliding 29% by December,” the report commented.
Also notable is the quick revival following the RBA’s rate cuts in May and August 2016 Westpac says.
Click to enlarge
“The main takeaways from the sub-group detail are: 1) no correlation with wider sentiment shifts; and 2) most holding in NSW and Victoria but rising in Queensland and Western Australia (now clearly positive),” the report stated.
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House price growth expectations falling, but remains above the average: Westpac

Shelter, the future and the problems in between: Briohny Doyle

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Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA) has urged the government to take a sensible approach to housing affordability policy, following its discussions with government representatives in April and ahead of the 2017 Federal Budget.
As the peak body for the property investment industry, PIPA has emphasised that regulation and education remained key.
PIPA chair Ben Kingsley welcomed the federal government’s decision to rule out changes to negative gearing and hoped this was reflective of a well-considered approach to addressing affordability issues both on the buying and renting sides.
“Housing affordability is challenging, but there’s no easy fix. We welcome the government’s focus on this issue but urge them to adopt sensible measures that reflect the national market needs, rather than any of the radical changes that have been floated by some corners of the market such as axing negative gearing and SMSF property investment,” Kingsley said.
“PIPA supports thoughtful and varied solutions that promote supply and cool demand and consider the long-term viability of the market and broader economy.”
Kingsley said that while no policy would ever reduce the price of quality property in the inner suburbs of major capital cities due to continued strong demand versus limited and geographically-constrained supply, strategic policies could work to encourage more supply in urban locations.
“Potential policies that could stimulate supply include measures that encourage developers to build more family-friendly accommodation, such as three or four bedroom units. Incentives to encourage the release of bulk land lots in new greenfield areas could also boost supply,” he said.  
According to data from CoreLogic, residential housing stock alone is estimated to be worth $6.9 trillion, which is more than three times Australia’s total share market capitalization of $1.7 trillion and our total superannuation pool of $2.2 trillion.
“Any policy changes that could impact the value of this asset class, need to be thoroughly considered,” he added.
“The residential property cycle plays a significant role in the country’s overall economic performance, as we’ve seen by the recent strong stamp duty receipts in New South Wales which have helped to fund the state’s robust infrastructure program.”
Kingsley also reinforced the role property played in building everyday Australians’ wealth.
“While high property prices can be incredibly frustrating for those trying to enter the market, we need to remember that property is a key feature of many everyday Australians’ wealth creation strategies," he said.
“Property is an accessible, trusted source of wealth that can help just about anyone build a better future. We need to be very careful when it comes to playing around with measures that could hurt the value of these assets.”
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