Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Home Loans

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GUEST OBSERVER
With an RBA rate rise looming and big banks already hiking rates across fixed rate home loans, it seems the rock bottom rates of 2016 are now a thing of the past for property buyers.
All four big banks have now slammed home borrowers with rate rises in the past couple of weeks, joining another 14 lenders who have pushed up variable rates out of cycle this month alone. 
The big banks have a history of higher than average interest rates - so far, since 2009, all the big banks have increased rates by more than the RBA did two times each (except NAB, who did it once.) They also all held back a full RBA rate cut 7 times a piece (although ANZ only did it 6 times.)
There are a couple of reasons for these recent rate hikes - the excuse the banks have given is that cost of funding is getting higher, so loan rates need to increase as well. 
The likelihood of an RBA rate increase sometime next year is also a consideration, particularly for fixed rate offers, as banks factor that into current rates that they won’t be able to adjust for the next two years or more. So for the rest of this year at least, it seems rates will only be pushed higher.
Investors will have it particularly tough, with APRA breathing down the necks of lenders after investment loans spiked toward the end of 2016. CommBank, which grew its investment loan portfolio by 8.02 percent over the last 12 months, has already started tightening criteria for lending to investors by dropping LVRs and limiting refinancing loans.
In fact, <a href="https://mozo.com.au/" target="_blank">Mozo</a> data shows that the average big banks interest rate premium on variable rate investor loans has doubled in the last year.
So things are looking gloomy for borrowers hoping to get a foot on the property ladder with a low rate loan, especially since big bank loans now account for 85% of the investor loan market, and 81 percent of owner-occupier loans.
That means now, when record low rates seem to be squarely behind us, is the time for new borrowers to really do their research into what offer is going to work best for their budget, and for those already paying off a mortgage to re-evaluate their situation and decide if it’s worth refinancing to lock in a good deal while they’re still around.
STEVE JOVCEVSKI is a property investment and home loan negotiator at <a href="https://mozo.com.au/" target="_blank">Mozo.com.au</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

The low rate mortgage party is over for property buyers: Mozo

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ANZ bank has updated variable home loan and business loan interest rates with increases in variable interest rates for new investor and owner- occupier home loan customers who choose to repay interest-only from April 22.
The variable interest rate for property investors will increase by 0.25 percent/pa from 5.60 percent/pa to 5.85 percent/pa from 31 March.
Variable interest rates for the 80 percent of owner-occupier borrowers who repay principal and interest on their standard variable home loan remain unchanged at 5.25 percent/pa.-
Investor variable rate home loans (interest only) will increase by a further 0.11 percent/pa from 5.85 percent/pa to 5.96 percent/pa.
For business borrowers, business variable rate indices will increase by 0.08%pa.
ANZ Group Executive Australia Fred Ohlsson said we are pleased to be in a position to keep rates unchanged for the 80% of owner-occupier home borrowers who pay principal and interest on their loan.
“This is a clear signal that we are open for business for Australians either looking to buy a home or looking for a better deal.
“The changes we are making in home lending affect investors and borrowers who only repay interest on their loan. These changes reflect a need to closely manage our regulatory obligations, our portfolio risk and the competitive environment.
"We recognise the day-to-day challenges that home-owners face with their house-hold budgets. We believe this is a balanced decision that reflects the range of regulatory and risk factors, and the pressures on family budgets.
“This is why we are providing our customers with interest-only home loans additional notice and the option to switch to repaying principal and interest to take advantage of the lower rate."
Westpac raised its home loan interest rates soon after NAB announced similar hikes.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

ANZ lifts interest rates for some customers

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The cash rate may have been held for seven consecutive months, but this hasn’t prevented lenders from lifting mortgage rates independently of the Reserve Bank.
There have been 11 lenders including two of the big four banks announcing rate hikes this month, according to finder.com.au, Australia’s most visited comparison website.
A new analysis by finder.com.au reveals 11 lenders have declared rate rises for both variable and fixed home loans in March 2017.
Of the big four banks, ANZ, NAB and Westpac have announced rate changes this year.
While ANZ and NAB announced changes earlier this year, Westpac soon followed suit announcing rate changes just this month.
In March alone, NAB announced further changes with increases to its interest rates from 0.07 percent - 0.25 percent for variable rate home loans, while Westpac also raised its variable rates from 0.03 percent - 0.28 percent.
Despite increasing its variable rate, NAB implemented a new incentive for first home buyers by introducing its lowest home loan fixed rate of 2 years at 3.69 percent per annum.
Westpac is also providing a grace period until the 17th June by waiving the switching fee for interest-only home loans changing to principal and interest repayments. 
The average rate rise for owner-occupier loans in March 2017 across the big four that have adjusted rates (including NAB and Westpac) is 0.05 percent.
Taking this into account, a borrower with an average home loan of $357,200 with an average variable rate of 4.75 percent would need to pay an extra $11 per month if rates rose to 4.80 percent.
This amounts to $3,881 over 30 years.
Graham Cooke, Insights Manager at finder.com.au, says whether it’s to increase flexibility or boost profit margins, banks are under fire to manage stakeholder expectations while also dealing with the risk of an overheated property market.
For investor loans, more stringent regulations imposed by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) to curb investor lending may be prompting banks to up interest rates.
"Given recent rate increases, both owner occupiers and investors need to prepare for higher loan costs.
"It’s sensible to factor in 2-3 percent on top of your current mortgage repayments so you can cope with unexpected rate rises,” he says.
Variable home loan rate changes for March 2017
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="67">
Lender
</td>
<td valign="top" width="81">
Change
</td>
<td valign="top" width="166">
Loans affected
 
</td>
<td valign="top" width="78">
Date effective
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
NAB
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.07% - 0.25%
</td>
<td width="156">
Variable Rate Home Loans (owner occupier + investor)
</td>
<td width="68">
24 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Westpac
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.03% - 0.28%
</td>
<td width="156">
Variable Rate Home Loans (owner occupier + investor and principal &amp; interest + interest only)
</td>
<td width="68">
24 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Bankwest
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.15%
</td>
<td width="156">
Complete Home Loan Package - Variable (investor), Premium Select Home Loan - Variable (investor) Equaliser Home Loan - Variable (investor)
</td>
<td width="68">
15 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Beyond Bank
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.10%
</td>
<td width="156">
Low Rate Special Home Loan - Variable (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
7 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Heritage Bank
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.10% - 0.11%
</td>
<td width="156">
Advantage Package Home Loan - Variable (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
14 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Illawarra Credit Union
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.05% - 0.15%
</td>
<td width="156">
Variable Lite &amp; Variable Home Loans (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
1 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
IMB
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.05%
</td>
<td width="156">
Accelerator Home Loan - Variable (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
13 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Macquarie Bank
</td>
<td width="70">
Up to 0.05%
</td>
<td width="156">
Basic Home Loan - Variable LVR &lt;=80%, LVR &lt;=90% (owner occupier + investor), Offset Package Home Loan - Variable LVR &lt;=80%, LVR &lt;=90% (owner occupier + investor)
</td>
<td width="68">
6 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Macquarie Bank
</td>
<td width="70">
Down 0.05 - 0.10%
</td>
<td width="156">
Basic Home Loan - Variable LVR &lt;=90% (owner occupier), Offset Package Home Loan - Variable LVR &lt;=90% (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
6 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
MOVE
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.30%
</td>
<td width="156">
Wealth Builder - Variable (investor), Flexi Home Credit - Variable
</td>
<td width="68">
1 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
People's Choice Credit Union
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.19%
</td>
<td width="156">
Basic Home Loan - Variable (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
15 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Western City
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.05% - 0.15%
</td>
<td width="156">
Variable Lite &amp; Variable Home Loans (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
1 Mar
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
 
Fixed home loan rate changes for March 2017
<table style="width: 392px; height: 476px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="67">
Lender
</td>
<td valign="top" width="81">
Change
</td>
<td valign="top" width="166">
Loans affected
 
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
Date effective
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Bankwest
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.15%
</td>
<td width="156">
Complete Home Loan Package - 2, 3, 4, 5 Years Fixed (investor), Fixed Rate Home Loan - 2, 3, 4, 5 Years Fixed (investor)
</td>
<td width="68">
15 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Beyond Bank
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.05% - 0.10%
</td>
<td width="156">
Fixed Rate Home Loan - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Years Fixed (owner occupier), Total Home Loan Package - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Years Fixed (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
7 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Heritage Bank
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.10%
</td>
<td width="156">
Fixed Rate Home Loan - 1,2,3 (owner occupier + investor), Advantage Package Fixed Rate Home Loan - 1,2,3 (owner occupier + investor)
</td>
<td width="68">
9 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
IMB
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.10%
</td>
<td width="156">
Platinum Package - 2 &amp; 3 Years Fixed rate (owner occupier + investor), Fixed Rate Home Loan - 2 &amp; 3 Years Fixed Rate (owner occupier + investor)
</td>
<td width="68">
6 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
MOVE
</td>
<td width="70">
Down 0.06%
</td>
<td width="156">
Lockit Home Loan - 1 Year Fixed rate
</td>
<td width="68">
1 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
People's Choice Credit Union
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.05%
</td>
<td width="156">
Home Loan Package - 3 Years Fixed (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
15 Mar
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Out-of-cycle rate hikes shake up the Australian home loan market

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Home loan lender ME has launched its new Scroogify tool to capture the growing refinance market.
The bank says the tool will help it maintain strong home loan growth after increasing its lending book 1.6 times the market average in the six months to 31 December 2017.
ME home loan settlements hit $3.2 billion for the six months to 31 December 2017, up 54 percent compared to the previous corresponding period.
Head of Home Loans, Patrick Nolan, said industry refinance levels had been steadily increasing as competition between lenders intensifies and borrowers become increasingly aware of the new deals on offer.
However, a large group of borrowers are still disinclined to refinance due to the perceived difficulties in comparing and because they underestimate the amount they can save, despite the fact the majority are with a major bank and are probably paying too much.
"We built Scroogify to be a new type of calculator that in a few seconds quantifies just how much a borrower would save over the life of their loan, in both time and money, if they switched their existing home loan to ME.
"We think Scroogify will shock borrowers out of apathy into action.”
Nolan said ME will support the tool with a major marketing campaign including TV, radio, online, public relations and social media, running nationally throughout 2017.
It will include a nationwide social media campaign to find ‘Australia’s Biggest Scrooge’.
“We reckon everyone has an inner scrooge just waiting to come out. The marketing campaign is designed to encourage borrowers to embrace their inner scrooge and unleash it on their home loan.
Scroogify is available at <a href="https://www.scroogify.com.au" target="_blank">scroogify.com.au</a>
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ME chases refinancers with anti-apathy Scroogify calculator

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Even if the Reserve Bank of Australia keeps the cash rate steady, a JPMorgan Mortgage Industry Report has warned young property investors who are "materially dependent" on income generated from renting their property could face higher rates in the coming years.
It will occur as banks respond to global regulatory changes that will require them to hold higher levels of capital against such loans.
The report published by JPMorgan says Basel 4 will require banks to hold up to five times the amount of capital against investor loans materially dependent on rental income to repay the loan.
It was speculated this could lead to interest rates for loans to investors with deposits of less than 20 per cent rising 3 percentage points, lifting from the present rate of about 4.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent.
The international Basel 4 reforms, which are expected to be finalised soon and adopted in Australia in the coming years, require banks to carry capital based on loan-to-value (LVR) ratios rather than the probability that a loan will default.
So far the definition of "materially dependency" has been left vague by the Basel committee. According to analysis by JPMorgan and Digital Finance Analytics, property investors have already been hit by higher interest rates as banks try to avoid running into investor loan growth caps of 10 per cent imposed by the prudential regulator in late 2014.Since mid 2015, investor and interest-only loans had increased an average of 65 basis points.
JPMorgan analyst Scott Manning said these increases were just the beginning.
"We think the repricing we have seen to date ... is purely a toe in the water, [with banks] testing the elasticity of the market [and] the response from brokers and politicians," he told The Australian Financial Review.
There is a lot more pricing differential to come through the market ... [and] we can definitely see the prospects for significant amounts of refinancing."
It is tipped ANZ Banking Group would be the biggest beneficiary among the major banks of Basel 4, because it has the lowest market share and slowest growth rate for investor lending. The report co-author Digital Finance Analytics' Martin North noted banks do not necessary capture all expenditures that households have.
"There is more work to be done to capture the cost of living in households.
"Even with a small rate rise, more than 50 per cent [of investors in this categories] will struggle if there is a small rise in rates say up to 3 percent."
North warned the Australian investor market was "growing way too quickly" despite the 10 percent growth rate cap imposed by APRA
.
<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
 
</div>
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JP Morgan warn low deposit property investors on looming Basel 4 impacts 

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Mortgage customers’ satisfaction with the big four banks was in the negative and lower than non-mortgage customers, according to latest data from leading market research company Roy Morgan.
Despite some tentative signs of improvement in satisfaction among the big four’s mortgage customers in January, overall they remain well below the satisfaction levels of the smaller banks’ mortgage customers, according to Roy Morgan.
The research looked at the ‘Net Promoter Score’, that measures advocacy levels among mortgage customers.
All four — Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, ANZ and NAB —  showed improved satisfaction among their home-loan customers in January but only the ANZ improved over the same time last year.  
ING Direct tops on the list of satisfied mortgage customers (of the 10 largest banks) with 96.3 percent, followed by Bendigo Bank on 93.2 percent. These two remain well clear of the field, with the next best being Bankwest (85.9 percent) and Bank of Queensland (82.5 percent). 
Among the big four, CBA has the highest mortgage customer satisfaction at 79.7 percent while Westpac has the lowest  at 75.4 percent.
Overall, satisfaction level of the big four banks’ personal customers in the six months to January 2017 was 80.1 percent, up fractionally on 79.9 percent in December.
The best performer among the big four with regards to mortgage customer NPS was the CBA (minus 12.7), followed by ANZ (minus 13.8), Westpac (minus 20.4) and NAB (minus 20.7). 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/NPSRoyMorgan.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/15/NPSRoyMorgan.png" alt="">
Bendigo Bank was the best performer when it came to NPS among the top 10 banks, scoring (plus 32.3). Banks with the highest mortgage customer satisfaction scores also had positive NPS scores for these customers, the research noted.
“Despite home loan rates having been low for a considerable time, it is somewhat surprising that mortgage customer satisfaction remains lower than that of other customers, who are likely to be adversely impacted by low deposit rates,” said Norman Morris, industry communications director at Roy Morgan Research.
“The smaller banks have shown that it’s possible to achieve much higher satisfaction levels among mortgage customers than those achieved by the majors, even though they’re operating in the same interest-rate environment.”
Roy Morgan says its extensive modelling goes deeper than just looking at recent events such as adverse publicity and interest-rate movements, which are generally short-term impact on satisfaction and advocacy levels, and the research firm relies on more than 50,000 interviews p.a covering all aspects of financial behaviour.
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prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

Big four rated negatively by mortgage customers: Roy Morgan

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GUEST OBSERVER
Housing finance
Home loans: The number of loans (commitments) for budding home owners (owner-occupiers) rose by 0.5 percent in January, the third consecutive rise. But the increase was wholly due to a 5.0 percent lift in refinancing.
The value of loans (owner occupier and investment) rose by 1.5 percent in January. Owner-occupier loans fell by 0.2 percent but investment loans rose by 4.2 percent. Non-bank lending up: The number of loans by non-bank lenders rose by 4.7 percent in January after a 6.2 percent lift in December – the strongest back-to-back gain in 32 months.
What does it all mean?
There is a lot of information contained in the Housing Finance publication. Actually so much information that it can prove confusing. In the latest month, budding home owners (owner-occupiers) took out fewer loans to build homes or buy new or existing homes. There were more loan commitments in the month, but only because more people chose to refinance existing loans.
Refinancing had fallen for three straight months, so the lift in loans was from 16-month lows. The lift in refinancing may serve to boost the purchasing power of consumers, and thus support growth of the broader economy.
There were actually fewer loans taken out by those looking to build their dream homes. Loans to budding home builders have fallen for four of the last five months. But once investors are added in, construction loans are still healthy, up almost 10 percent on a year ago. If these commitments are actually drawn down, then more new dwelling projects will be started in coming months.
Home building does appear to have peaked but the lift in construction loans suggests a soft landing lies ahead.
Investors remain active in the housing market with the value of loans at 20-month highs. Investor loans are actually up 27.5 percent on a year ago, the fastest growth in 29 months.
The risk is that regulators may seek to apply further measures to slow down the pace of investor home loans.
Borrowers in many states are taking out smaller home loans than a year ago. That is despite home prices still generally rising and despite interest rates being lower than a year ago. The more conservative lending posture will encourage the Reserve Bank.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/12/image003.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/12/image003.png" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/Craig1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/Craig1.jpg" width="600" height="479">
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/Craig2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/Craig2.jpg" width="600" height="450">
What do the figures show?
Housing finance - number
The number of loans (commitments) for budding home owners (owner-occupiers) rose by 0.5 percent in January after rising 0.2 percent in December and rising by 1.4 per cent in November. Excluding the refinancing of dwellings, the number of loans was down by 1.7 percent.
 The number of new home loans was up by 1.9 percent on a year ago (excluding refinancing, up 4.6 percent).
Loans by owner-occupiers for the construction of homes fell by 1.4 percent in January. Loans to buy newly-erected dwellings fell by 2.3 percent.
Loans for the purchase of established dwellings (excluding refinancing) fell by 1.9 percent.
The number of refinancing transactions rose by 5.0 percent.
Lending across states/territories: NSW (+1.3 percent); Victoria (+1.6 percent); Queensland (+1.6 percent); South Australia (+4.4 percent), Western Australia (+0.3 percent); Tasmania (-2.5 percent); Northern Territory (-5.3 percent); ACT (+1.9 percent).
HOUSING FINANCE - VALUE
The value of new housing commitments (owner occupier and investment) rose by 1.5 percent in January – the fifth straight gain. Owner-occupier loans fell by 0.2 percent but investment loans rose by 4.2 percent.
The value of loans by owner-occupiers and investors to build new homes rose by 9.7 percent in January after falling by 10.2 percent in December and rising 15.4 percent in October. The value of loans stood at $3.04 billion, down from the record high of $3.32 billion in the year to March. 
HOUSING FINANCE – OTHER STATISTICS
The proportion of first-time buyers in the home loan market eased from 13.8 percent to 13.4 percent in January (long-term average 19.4 percent).
The proportion of fixed rate loans rose from 14.6 percent to a 9-month high of 15.2 percent in January. And the average home loan across Australia stood at $363,600 in January, down 3.2 percent in the month and down 0.4 percent on a year ago.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/Craig3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/Craig3.jpg" width="600" height="450">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/Craig4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/Craig4.jpg" width="600" height="450">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/Craig5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/Craig5.jpg" width="600" height="450">
 
WHAT IS THE IMPORTANCE OF THE ECONOMIC DATA?
Housing Finance data is produced monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and shows commitments by lenders, such as banks, to provide finance for housing purposes. The lending figures relate to those looking to buy or build homes to live in as well as those seeking to buy or build homes for investment purposes. Generally people get their finance organised first, so the figures are regarded as a leading indicator on the housing market.
WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR INTEREST RATES AND INVESTORS?
Regulators will keep a close eye on home loan trends. The revival of investor lending could lead to fresh controls over new lending. But it is also worth pointing out that non-bank lenders seem to have been more active in the past two months which may provide complications in containing investor exuberance.
While investors are more active in the housing market, budding home owners are more circumspect with the value of owner-occupier lending just 1.9 percent higher than a year ago.
The lift in home loan refinancing is positive for consumer-focussed companies.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/Craig6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/Craig6.jpg" width="600" height="450">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/Craig7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/Craig7.jpg" width="600" height="450">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/Craig8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/Craig8.jpg" width="600" height="450">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/Craig9.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/Craig9.jpg" width="600" height="450">
 
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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More home loan refinancing, investors still active: Craig James

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More than 20 percent of borrowers are choosing to fix their home loan, new data from a leading mortgage brokers suggests, with the trend likely to go up as lenders continue to lift their interest rates out of cycle with the central bank.
Fixed rate home loans accounted for 22.22 percent of all loans written in February, down slightly from 22.97 percent in January, according to national home loan approval data from Mortgage Choice.
“While fixed rate demand was down slightly in comparison to last month, the fact that over 20 percent of borrowers are choosing to fix their mortgage is still significant,” Mortgage Choice chief executive officer John Flavell said.
“Of course, given that so many lenders have raised their interest rates over the past few weeks, I am not surprised to see one in five borrowers opting for a fixed rate home loan.” 
Flavell said he wouldn’t be surprised to see even more borrowers choosing to fix part or all of their mortgage, as lenders continue to lift their interest rates out of cycle with the Reserve Bank of Australia.
“In recent weeks, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s governor Philip Lowe has made it clear that future rate cuts are now more unlikely than likely. With this in mind, it would appear the only way for rates to go is up,” he said.
“As more lenders start to lift their rates, we may see more borrowers choosing to fix their mortgage in a bid to avoid further rate hikes and provide themselves with some certainty around their regular mortgage repayments.”
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/02/MortgageChoiceCEO.jpg" alt="" width="429" height="643">  Fixed rate demand was highest in New South Wales, making up 24.17 percent of all home loans written throughout the month of February by the broker.   Queensland followed with fixed rate demand accounting for 23.32 percent of all loans written within the state.   Overall however, variable rate home loans – specifically ongoing discount mortgages – still remained the most popular product amongst borrowers.   Within Australia, ongoing discount home loans accounted for 44.34 percent of all mortgages written.   Flavell said with interest rates continuing to sit at near record lows, borrowers should be able to secure a good deal regardless of whether they choose a fixed or variable rate.   “At the end of the day, there is no right or wrong answer when it comes to selecting a home loan product, it all comes down to personal preference,” he said. 
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One in five property owners choosing fixed-rate loans: Mortgage Choice

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Through 2008, outstanding loans to households by Australia's banks totalled less than $700 billion.  The final 2016 numbers are not yet plugged into the chart below, but the monthly banking statistics suggest that the total by the end of the year will exceed $1.5 trillion. 
Australia has experienced strong population growth during this period, but nevertheless outstanding housing debt has been compounding at around 9 percent per annum. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/28/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/28/A1.jpg" alt="">
Such a strong pace of increase in household debt is bound to be reflected in housing market conditions one way or another, and in Australia's case the result has been price increases in Sydney and Melbourne. 
This dynamic since the financial crisis has been arousing the interest of short sellers, including from overseas. 
Although house prices have declined in Perth, Darwin, and parts of regional Queensland in particular, to date the most heavily populated markets have held up well. 
If anything, housing market sentimen<a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/02/deuces-are-wild">t</a> seems to be improved in Sydney and Melbourne again at the beginning of 2017. 
Changes to the lending environment
Regulators have encouraged several tweaks to lending criteria over the years since the financial crisis first erupted. 
"Low-doc" loans, once fairly commonplace, today only comprise a small share of the mortgage market, while 100 per cent mortgages have thankfully gone the same way.
In fact, new mortgages today overwhelmingly have a loan to value ratio (LVR) of 90 per cent or lower, although in reality many borrowers have used equity from existing properties to fund their deposits. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/28/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/28/A3.jpg" alt="">
Lending standards in Australia are higher than they were, but on some measures remain concerning.
For example, the share of interest only loans remains high by international standards, despite having declined from somewhat alarming levels in 2015. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/28/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/28/A2.jpg" alt="">
ASIC had previously reported that about two in three investor loans in Australia were interest only mortgages, and around a quarter of owner occupier loans - with the repayment typically increasing when the interest only period ends. 
Shorting: what and when
Short sellers rarely bet on house prices directly, rather they tend to be interested in the outcomes of a market downturn (and housing markets are necessarily always cyclical). 
Some will sell the stock of banks, others will look at developers or home building companies, materials companies, retailers of household goods, financiers, or the institutions that insure mortgages. 
Alternatively some may look at buying Australian government bonds, while one of the cleanest and potentially profitable ways to bet against the housing market might be to short the Australian dollar, which at 76.7 US cents arguably still has plenty of downside. 
Timing short bets is important
Maintaining short positions can be costly in terms of interest or dividend obligations, while opportunity cost of suboptimal market timing is another factor to be considered. 
There has been plenty of discussion of the potential impact of an apartment glut in Australia, but in the case of both Melbourne and Sydney accelerating population growth appears to be absorbed much of the new supply to date, although tens of thousands of apartments remain under construction.
The potential for non-resident buyers defaulting on apartment settlements has been another salient risk closely watched by sceptics, though to date news of any fallout appears to have been relatively contained.  
One market risk which cannot so easily be quantified is the potential for defaults in the scenario whereby mortgage rates increase, prices in secondary and lower socio-demographic areas decline, and a swathe of interest only loans reach the end of their interest only period. 
Maths can get ugly
Anyone who had a standard variable rate mortgage in 2009 at above 8 percent will recall that principle and interest repayments could be excruciatingly difficult.
Consider that a homeowner with a $600,000 interest only mortgage at 4.5 percent today might be paying only ~$2,250 per month, whereas as and when the mortgage flips to principal and interest, were the mortgage rate to have increased to 6 percent the repayments could be more than 50 percent higher, even on a 30 year product.
Mortgage repayment calculators don't always give the option to calculate what would happen in a 7 percent scenario, but the answer on a 30 year product might be a potentially punishing ~$4,000 per month. 
With the amount of outstanding interest only debt having increased at an unprecedented pace through this cycle it's not too hard to analyse when this market risk will arise, and in turn which areas might see defaults increase. 
The most successful shorters will be those that can combine market timing with bets lined up against those companies with the most vulnerable financials. 
The big players
Market participants will be well aware of the attractive mortgage rates that the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has been offering lately, and in turn the growth in the CBA investor mortgage book looks likely to bump up against the notional 10 percent per annum cap set by the regulator APRA.
Unfortunately for analysts the market data reported for investor loans has been muddied by reclassifications from investor to owner-occupier loans.
For example, the Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC) switched more than $21 billion of loans between July and October 2015 taking outstanding investor credit down from $156 billion to $135 billion and in turn causing its year-on-year growth in outstanding investor credit to appear negative for some time. 
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Despite the reclassification Westpac retains the greatest balance of outstanding investor loans, while Commonwealth has the largest total of outstanding household mortgage debt, although the quality of loans rather than the volume is what should be of interest to analysts. 
Investors today typically pay higher mortgage rates than owner-occupiers, with further tweaks a possibility in 2017. 
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What shorters should really be paying attention to is which financiers, insurers and developers have been active in the highest risk markets, areas which have been discussed here on this blog previously. 
Prospective borrowers should take into account the likelihood that mortgage rates may move higher over the years ahead. 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/">blogger</a>.
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
 
 
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Outstanding housing debt has been compounding: Pete Wargent

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The McGrath Estate Agency's Oxygen Home Loans department settled $443 million in mortgages during the period for the half year ending 31 December 2016 .
The latest update revealed it was slightly down on the prior year (3 percent).
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The book value of loans under management has increased 21 percent year on year to $2.6bn.
At 1H FY17, there were 32 brokers supporting the network.
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