<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sunland-group">Sunland Group</a> has officially lodged plans for its first Gold Coast apartment project since the departure of the Abedian family from the company three years ago, unveiling a new high-rise proposal for a prominent Broadbeach corner site on Old Burleigh Road.

The application was submitted by an entity directed by Tom Jamieson, stepson of longtime Sunland leader Soheil Abedian, and Riaz Rezvanipour, brother-in-law of Sahba Abedian, Soheil’s son.

Sunland acquired the 1,283 sqm site on the corner of Old Burleigh Road and Armrick Avenue for $9.5 million late last year and is now seeking approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/99-101-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">42-storey tower with 81 apartments</a>.

<img alt="First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fea2946d-90ee-4cfc-babe-2a8ad5db2cb6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers.png?VersionId=BV0fihJw31nDIQ8ozY_h3GbS8mxDyhnm" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/contreras-earl-architecture">Contreras Earl Architecture</a>, the proposed tower at 99-101 Old Burleigh Road would deliver a predominantly larger-format apartment mix aimed at the owner-occupier market. Plans include 17 two-bedroom apartments, 55 three-bedroom apartments, and nine four-bedroom residences across 35 residential levels.

The development also incorporates three basement levels, four podium parking levels, two levels of communal recreation facilities, and rooftop plant and equipment. A total of 189 car spaces are proposed, significantly exceeding the 90 spaces required under the planning scheme.

The architecture adopts a sculpted, curvilinear form, with deep wraparound balconies and integrated landscaping intended to soften the tower’s vertical expression. The planning report states the building’s “slender footprint/form provides a complimentary yet varied built form within the local streetscape” and contributes to “a varied, yet ordered skyline.”

Contreras Earl noted in its Architectural Statement that from the early stages, the project addressed a fundamental challenge: how to accommodate the required residential yield while avoiding the conventional model of a tower sitting on a rigid, fully resolved parking podium.

“The most direct response would have been to consolidate parking into a singular, flat podium and extrude a repetitive tower above,” the statement said. “While efficient, this approach would result in a consolidated built form with limited engagement with the surrounding landscape and public realm.”

Instead, the conventional podium model was “deliberately rejected”. The architects described the base of the building as “a landscaped architectural condition where structure, planting and circulation are integrated”.

“Rather than presenting a continuous built mass, the base of the building is articulated through a series of concrete planter elements that organise the podium into a fragmented system,” the statement said. “This approach reduces the perceived bulk of the lower levels while establishing a more permeable interface with the streetscape and adjacent open space.”

<img alt="Sunland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="923fad8d-c960-4527-8fbe-975cf1ddf88d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%2010.32.03%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pngwb0hYOIUpq9vDw6F2EsOiVuHF3DiX" />

&nbsp;

The site sits within the High Density Residential Zone and inside the City of Gold Coast’s unrestricted “HX” building height area, where the planning framework anticipates intensified residential development tied to the expanding light rail corridor. The planning report notes the area is undergoing “transition toward more intense development forms” given its proximity to Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise, and high-frequency public transport infrastructure.

Positioned directly opposite Broadbeach Park and within walking distance of Florida Gardens light rail station, the development would sit among a rapidly evolving stretch of Old Burleigh Road that has become one of the Gold Coast’s most active apartment development corridors.

The application joins a growing pipeline of luxury residential projects reshaping Broadbeach, including nearby developments by 5Point Projects, Polycell, and Graya.

The planning report argues the project contributes toward the Gold Coast’s long-term housing targets under the South East Queensland Regional Plan, which forecasts the need for more than 100,000 additional high-rise dwellings across the city by 2046.

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The Abedian family departed Sunland Group in late 2023, ending a four-decade association with the company, and subsequently established the private development firm Abedian &amp; Co. The group is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/greenmount-residences-cnr-hill-street-and-marine-parade-coolangatta-qld-4225">Greenmount Residences</a> at Rainbow Bay and recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/18-mary-avenue-14-18-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">18 Mary Avenue</a> in Broadbeach.
</section>

Joel Robinson

First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach new apartment market with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans

The Minns Labor Government has established the new Bays West Delivery Authority to lead the development&nbsp;of the Bays West Precinct and Blackwattle Bay Precinct.&nbsp;

The Authority is charged with creating Sydney’s newest precinct, a thriving, connected, sustainable hub with White Bay Power Station as its cultural heart. Its vision is to build on the area’s natural, cultural and industrial history to shape a vibrant new neighbourhood.

The precinct will deliver up to 8,500 well-located homes, including a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes. Combine new housing with public open space, opening public access to the waterfront for the first time in more than 100 years, while retaining important deep-water facilities to support Sydney’s working harbour.

Located just minutes from the Sydney CBD and connected to a world-class metro, ferry, walking and cycling links, the Bays West precinct will rebalance housing growth towards well-serviced inner-city locations and help tackle the state’s housing crisis.

The Bays West Delivery Authority,&nbsp;an agency of the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, will report to the NSW Minister for Lands and Property who already has oversight of major precinct renewal projects including at Blackwattle Bay and Barangaroo.

As part of the broader Bays West transformation, the Minns Government recently announced that a proposal from Lendlease to redevelop part of the Bays West Precinct has progressed to Stage 2 of the NSW Government’s unsolicited proposals process.

<img alt="Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2ed71eb9-d8e8-4fa7-b9d1-de4531dcf2f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%209.42.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=IDryFIbped9SNDg72LEN_EecvhUsOPvp" />

The Minns Labor Government has also confirmed the Bays West precinct will have a new suburb name. This will be the first major suburb built in close proximity to Sydney’s CBD in decades and will encompass the area currently being referred to as Bays West, including Glebe Island and the White Bay Power Station. Served by a new Metro station just five minutes from the CBD, it will become one of the most populous suburbs in the Inner West and one of Sydney’s premier cultural destinations.

An early works program is taking shape, which&nbsp;includes the first stages of an international design competition.&nbsp;

The aim of the Bays West&nbsp;International&nbsp;Design Competition is to&nbsp;ensure design excellence is embedded in the project from the start. The competition will deliver an&nbsp;urban framework that defines the character, ambition and long-term identity of&nbsp;this&nbsp;former industrial precinct as it transitions to a vibrant, inclusive and sustainable residential&nbsp;neighbourhood.

The competition will be led by the Bays West Delivery Authority in partnership with Government Architect NSW.&nbsp;

It will launch with an invitation for a global Expressions of Interest, before moving to an invitation-only stage that will be assessed by a panel that&nbsp;will provide advice to Cabinet who will select a winner.

Premier of NSW, Chris Minns said the establishment of the new Authority is the first step in transforming the Bays West precinct into a vibrant, livable suburb minutes from the Sydney CBD and two stops from Hunter St Station on the Metro West line.

“The Authority will deliver well-located homes close to the heart of the city and integrate the new precinct with Blackwattle Bay and the new Sydney Fish Market.

“This is a generational opportunity to build a new suburb on the city’s edge and open the harbour foreshore to the public for the first time in a century.”&nbsp;

Minister for Lands and Property Steve Kamper said the new Bays West Delivery Authority established by the Minns Government will turbocharge the development of Sydney’s newest suburb.

“The Authority is working at a record pace to deliver an international design competition, planning pathways and a financial model so that this development benefits Sydney with well-designed homes in a central location, close to public transport, jobs, entertainment and essential services.

“If we want Sydney to stay liveable and affordable, we need to be bold about using underutilised government-owned land to deliver homes for the future while making sure essential working harbour functions can be accommodated.”

Bays West Delivery Authority established to "turbocharge" Sydney’s newest suburb

Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.

A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.

Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.

“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.

Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.

“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.

The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.

It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.

The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.

One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.

Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.

The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.

Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.

Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.

Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.

“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”

Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.

Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.

Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.

400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.

The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.

Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" />

“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.

The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”

The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" />

The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.

According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.

“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.

A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.

Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" />

All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.

The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.

Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.

The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.

Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" />

Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.

The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.

"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.

The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.

The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" />

Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.

Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.

First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Fitzroy apartments

COVID-19

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Very few cases of COVID-19 in Australia, with a handful of cases returning from overseas and headed to quarantine. 
 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4cgHNMSh-oQ/Xsx2s06IRqI/AAAAAAAA16g/wDLDtpPvcfkunQPJ6ms16Hj1eSX8Ba3kQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1410"></div>
 <div>Recoveries continue to comfortably outstrip new cases.</div>
 <div>And, importantly, we're consistently seeing zero deaths reported on a daily basis, with few serious cases even going as far as ICU. </div>
 <div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Oq1uYHyB-KM/Xsx2tGzEx0I/AAAAAAAA16o/8yxL_txLTsEmUkq7S9oXm1PF9d9-Es09gCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV2.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1409"></div>
 <div>There are 5 cases remaining in ICU nationally, against the expanded capacity of 7,500 beds.</div>
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<div>Confidence returning</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Consumer confidence increased for an 8th consecutive week, up by +0.4 per cent to a reading of 92.7 points according to ANZ-Roy Morgan.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Future financial conditions gained by +3.2 per cent and is approaching its long term average reading.</div>
 <div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vCSe5Ue0BOI/Xsx2s1gwkFI/AAAAAAAA16k/Zeb8FGowur8NGJMmSaZfv2E44F65IjhawCPcBGAYYCw/s640/CC2.jpg" width="640" height="502" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1011"></div>
 <div>Source: ANZ-Roy Morgan</div>
 <div>Credit card usage data shows that Aussies are willing and able to spend again, but realistically travel restrictions needs to be eased before the economy can begin to fire up properly.</div>
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<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Confidence up for 8th consecutive week: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Melbourne markets have held up better than most against the forces of Covid-19. The number of growth markets has dropped but it remains at solid levels – and prices have continued to perform well, in defiance of predictions (by the usual suspects) of a collapse.
The latest quarterly survey of sales activity by Hotspotting has found fewer growth suburbs than the previous survey, but still better than all other quarters since the Melbourne market peak in 2017.
This tells us that the Melbourne market has dropped in terms of sales activity, thanks to the restrictions imposed for the coronavirus, but remained stronger than during the post-boom downturn phase that extended throughout 2018 and early 2019.
Melbourne has done particularly well with price performance – with houses coming back strongly in the most recent quarter, but with apartments doing better than houses in annual terms.
In the past 12 months, two-thirds of Melbourne suburbs with apartment markets recorded growth in their median unit prices – and most of those growth suburbs increased their median prices by more than 5%.
House markets were less positive in annual terms, with only one-third recording price growth over the past months.
But the situation with house prices is starkly different when looking at the most recent data: 88% of Melbourne suburbs recorded growth in their median house prices in the most recent quarter.
This reflects the overall trend in the market. In the first half of 2019, Melbourne prices generally were falling, following the end of the previous boom and impacted also by the lead-up to the Federal Election.
Markets started to recover in the second half of 2019 and the early months of 2020 – so that most suburbs were recording price growth in their housing markets, but two-thirds still remained below the levels of 12 months earlier.
The data suggests Melbourne markets have been resilient price-wise in the Covid-19 period, despite the fall in sales activity which is reflected in our Winter 2020 survey of sales volumes.
In the circumstances, a result of 32 suburbs with growing sales activity is a solid performance and is better than all the quarterly surveys of 2018 and 2019.
The Mornington Peninsula has been the standout performer in our Winter 2020 survey: seven suburbs have continued to deliver growth in sales activity. Growth suburbs include Blairgowrie, Hastings, McCrae, Rye, Safety Beach, Sorrento and Tootgarook.
Quarterly sales in Safety Beach have been 33 46 45 47 54 and 64 over the past 18 months and the median house has risen 3% in the latest quarter while the median unit price is up 25% over the past 12 months.
In Hastings, quarterly sales have been 43 49 67 69 and 73 – and the median house price has increased 4.6% in the most recent quarter.
The next best LGA in terms of the number of suburbs with growing sales activity is the upmarket Glen Eira LGA, with three growth suburbs and two consistency markets. The growth suburbs are Carnegie, Caulfield North and Ormond.
There are seven municipalities with two growth suburbs each, including the Moreland LGA where both Brunswick East (63 79 80 83 and 86) and Brunswick West (52 60 63 76 and 83) are growth markets.
The Brunswick West unit market has been particularly strong, with notable growth in its median price both for the most recent quarter and over the past 12 months (up 18%).
This Winter 2020 survey has identified 11 suburbs as declining markets – a surprisingly small number given the Covid-19 circumstances – and three danger markets.
The locations we have ranked as danger markets are the Melbourne CBD, Southbank and Docklands, all inner-city apartments markets where sales activity has dropped markedly at a time when vacancy rates have spiked because of the Covid-19 impacts.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Melbourne market holding up better than most during Covid-19: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Australia Bureau of Statistics data has confirmed the massive economic hit from the COVID-19 pandemic, with total hours worked across the economy officially falling 9% between early March and early April 2020.
Our analysis, using data from the quarterly <a href="https://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/research/publications/hardship-distress-and-resilience-initial-impacts-covid-19-australia" target="_blank">ANUpoll</a>, suggests the self-employed have been hit harder, with average weekly hours dropping by almost a third between February and April 2020. More than eight out of 10 self-employed Australians say their profits have taken a significant hit.
Decline in hours worked for the self employed
The ANUpoll is an important economic and social barometer in Australia because it is a longitudinal survey – polling the same group of people multiple times throughout the year. This enables a more accurate snapshot of how individuals are being affected.
The <a href="https://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/research/surveys/anupoll" target="_blank">data we are releasing today</a> was collected from 3,155 Australians between April 14 and April 27.
It shows the 32% drop in hours worked by the self-employed (from 35.2 to 23.8 hours) was about double that of all employees, whose hours declined by 16% (from 35.5 to 29.7 hours).
The following infographic illustrates the degree of decline for all the self-employed in the poll (about 240 people). The blue dots above the red line show those working more hours in April; those below the line show those working less. Note the number at or near zero.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335284/original/file-20200515-138620-1no37fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335284/original/file-20200515-138620-1no37fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
 Comparing weekly hours worked by the self-employed in February to April 2020. ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Author provided
Almost a third said their business would be unviable if financial trends continued for two months. If trends persisted for six months, 40% doubted they could survive.
The impact on savings and wellbeing
The proportion of self-employed saying they were finding it difficult or very difficult to survive on their current income increased from 29% to 36%.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335327/original/file-20200515-138654-8u4t3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335327/original/file-20200515-138654-8u4t3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
 Proportion of people finding it difficult or very difficult on their current income, by employment type. ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods
This contrasts with an aggregate improvement among employees, most likely due to higher payments for those on lower incomes, such as the A$750 given to social security recipients.
21% of self-employed respondents said they had accessed retirement savings or superannuation early, compared with 7% of employees.
Among those thinking their business was unviable, 69% reported feeling anxious and worried, compared with 59% of those thinking their business was viable. Life satisfaction was also lower (5.6 out 10 compared to 7.0).
What does this mean for the self-employed in 2020?
Current policies includes a large amount of targeted assistance for the self-employed. Without that assistance, the outcomes summarised above would be far worse.
As physical distancing restrictions are eased, it will be important to continue to monitor how the self-employed are faring to ensure the level of government support is sufficient and well-targeted.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138718/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/matthew-gray-229834" target="_blank">Matthew Gray</a>, Director, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank">Australian National University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nicholas-biddle-10171" target="_blank">Nicholas Biddle</a>, Professor of Economics and Public Policy, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank">Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/self-employed-australians-hours-have-fallen-32-since-coronavirus-hit-double-the-impact-on-all-employees-138718" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Self-employed Australians’ hours have fallen 32% since coronavirus hit double the average

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GUEST OBSERVATION
As the coronavirus pandemic spreads around the world, it’s a good time to understand how cleaning can help prevent the spread of disease and what you can do to cut the risk of infection in your home.
Coronavirus is mainly transmitted from person to person via <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/what-you-need-to-know-about-coronavirus-covid-19" target="_blank">tiny droplets</a> of saliva or other bodily fluids that float in the air after a cough or sneeze.
Contaminated objects and surfaces can also be important in the transmission of disease. It’s not entirely clear what role they play in transmitting the new coronavirus, but they play an important one for <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670120300463" target="_blank">related viruses</a> such as SARS and MERS.
However, it makes sense that something contaminated with the virus could pass it on, for example if a person touches it and then touches their nose, mouth or face.
So, if someone at risk of having the virus has been in your home, cleaning to reduce the amount of contamination on surfaces may help cut down your risk of further transmission of coronavirus. (It will also cut the risk of transmitting other pathogens.)
<h2>What’s the difference between cleaning and disinfection?</h2>
There’s a useful to distinction to make between <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/cleaning-disinfection?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcommunity%2Fhome%2Fcleaning-disinfection.html" target="_blank">cleaning</a> and <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/cleaning-disinfection?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcommunity%2Fhome%2Fcleaning-disinfection.html" target="_blank">disinfection</a>.
Cleaning means physically removing organic matter such as germs and dirt from surfaces. Disinfection means using chemicals to kill germs on surfaces.
Cleaning is very important, because organic matter may inhibit or reduce the disinfectant’s ability to kill germs.
<h2>How long will coronavirus survive in my house?</h2>
We are not exactly sure how long this coronavirus will survive on surfaces. If it is similar to other coronaviruses, it could survive a few hours – potentially <a href="https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext" target="_blank">up to several days</a>. How long it survives could depend on temperature, humidity and what the surface is made of.
<h2>What could be contaminated in my house?</h2>
It’s hard to say exactly. When someone coughs or sneezes, especially if they don’t cover their mouth, it is likely surfaces close to them will be contaminated.
Hands are often responsible for transferring pathogens from one place to another, so items that people often touch are at greatest risk of being contaminated.
Frequently touched items may include TV remotes, fridge doors, kitchen cupboards, kitchen surfaces, taps and door handles. And of course, there are devices such as phones and iPads – but these may not be shared or touched by others frequently.
<h2>What should I use to clean and how?</h2>
The coronavirus is a delicate structure and it is vulnerable in the environment. Both heat and detergents, including soap, can stop it functioning.
<h3>Contaminated surfaces</h3>
If a surface becomes contaminated or you think it could be, cleaning it with a common household disinfectant will kill the virus. Remember to wash your hands after cleaning (or use an alcohol-based hand sanitiser) and avoid touching your eyes, mouth or nose.
There are many options for what to use to clean, including paper towels, cloths or disposable wipes.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321221/original/file-20200318-37387-184yl1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
The S-shaped pattern for cleaning a surface without re-contaminating parts of it. Brett Mitchell, Author provided
How you clean is important. You don’t want to “recontaminate” surfaces while cleaning. Working from one side of a surface to the other helps with this, using an <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670118307205" target="_blank">“S” shape to clean</a>.
If you are reusing a cloth, remember to wash it afterwards and let it dry. Laundering cloths in the washing machine with normal washing liquid is also likely to kill the virus, particularly on a hot wash.
<h3>Dishes and cutlery</h3>
Washing with hot water and detergent is fine for dishes and cutlery. A dishwasher is even better, because it can use hotter water than your hands will tolerate.
<h3>Clothing and linen</h3>
Use the warmest setting possible to wash contaminated laundry and make sure you allow it to dry completely. You may not want to ruin clothing or other materials, so always look at the manufacturer’s instructions.
Laundry from someone who is sick can be washed with other people’s items. If you are handling contaminated items such as towel or sheets, avoid shaking them before washing, to reduce the risk of contaminating other surfaces.
And remember to wash your hands immediately after touching any contaminated laundry.
<h2>Prevention is best</h2>
Remember that surfaces play a role in transmitting pathogens, so preventing them from becoming contaminated in the first place is as important as cleaning. There are some things you can do to reduce the amount of contamination of surfaces in your house:
– cover your cough and sneezes, ideally with a tissue but otherwise into your elbow, and wash your hands immediately
– wash your hands often, especially after going to the bathroom and before eating.
<h2>What do I do if someone in my home is sick?</h2>
It may be wise to think about which room in your home could be used to care for a sick member of your family. If possible, the ideal room is one that that is separate from other parts of your home and has a separate bathroom.
Cleaning this room when someone is sick also requires some thought. Further advice on caring for someone with coronavirus at home is available from the <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/03/coronavirus-covid-19-information-about-home-isolation-when-unwell-suspected-or-confirmed-cases.pdf" target="_blank">Department of Health</a>.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133912/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brett-mitchell-398392" target="_blank">Brett Mitchell</a>, Professor of Nursing, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-newcastle-1060" target="_blank">University of Newcastle</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-clean-your-house-to-prevent-the-spread-of-coronavirus-and-other-infections-133912" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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How to clean your house to prevent the spread of coronavirus

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GUEST OBSERVATION 
Our analysis shows an economic downturn as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic will dramatically increase rental stress for people with insecure or casual work. If the downturn persists this will place people in precarious jobs at higher risk of homelessness.
The scenario we explored is the effect of loss of casual work on people on very low incomes. We identify this at-risk group as those aged between 19 and 30 years, living independently with disposable incomes of A$600 a week from casual work or a combination of casual work and benefits.
They typically work in cafes, restaurants, catering, events, fast food and retail. These are the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-06/this-is-why-casual-workers-could-be-hardest-hit-by-coronavirus/12027382" target="_blank">jobs most immediately impacted by an economic slowdown</a>. It is estimated <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-25/australia-sees-increase-in-casual-workers-ai-job-threats/11043772" target="_blank">one in four Australian workers is casual</a>, although not all are on low incomes.
The infographic below illustrates the extreme rental stress a slowdown will cause the low-income casual workers. We have calculated average rent across the broader Melbourne and Sydney metropolitan areas. The infographic shows the impact on rental stress of losing up to A$300 per week of disposable income. The percentages represent the amount of income taken up by rent, with red indicating the most extreme rental stress.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321155/original/file-20200317-60932-19pvj8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321155/original/file-20200317-60932-19pvj8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Source: REIA median rental data (December, 2019), A Guide to Australian Government Payments, authors' calculations
For example, the top row shows a casual worker in Sydney sharing a two-bedroom flat earning A$604 a week had A$344 disposable income after rent. The final row shows an individual in Sydney with A$326 weekly income after losing work income. Their rent then takes up 80% of their income, leaving them with A$66 a week to live on after rent.
The potential impact of the downturn on the disposable income of people with very low incomes means they will be in extreme rental stress unless they have savings.
<h2>So do they have savings?</h2>
The federal government has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/australian-government-warned-not-to-drag-its-feet-on-help-for-casual-workers-in-coronavirus-crisis" target="_blank">suggested</a> casual workers have savings to tide them over. Our analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics data suggests 38.9% of those earning A$600 or less per week have less than A$600 in savings to get them through. Over a quarter of this group are already in debt.
Another 26.6% of low-income casual workers have a month or less for things to get back to normal.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320900/original/file-20200316-27643-y5y5ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Average savings of people earning A$600 a week. Source: Income and Housing, Australia, 2017-18 (Australian Bureau of Statistics), Authors' calculations
These savings will be used up rapidly when average rent in a share house is A$133-220 per week in Melbourne and A$165-260 in Sydney. These rents include outer metropolitan areas, so rental stress in the inner cities will be worse, as our <a href="https://theconversation.com/city-share-house-rents-eat-up-most-of-newstart-leaving-less-than-100-a-week-to-live-on-123772" target="_blank">previous analysis</a> showed.
The downturn will affect a large number of people already on benefits because their income is partly from benefits and partly from earnings. According to <a href="https://data.gov.au/dataset/ds-dga-cff2ae8a-55e4-47db-a66d-e177fe0ac6a0/distribution/dist-dga-1fb71211-4e8a-4bf2-b659-148cd4d6972d/details?q=" target="_blank">data from the Department of Social Services</a>, 41% of Youth Allowance recipients, 28% of NewStart recipients and 36% of Parenting Payment single recipients are working and therefore receive part-rate allowances.
<h2>Will the first economic stimulus package help?</h2>
For people already receiving benefits the one-off <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/coronavirus/households" target="_blank">A$750 stimulus payment</a> will help to tide them over for 3-4 weeks’ rent. But to date casual workers have not been included in that stimulus payment (unless they receive <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/family-tax-benefit" target="_blank">Family Tax Benefit</a>).
People who lose their casual work will be able to get the new <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/jobseeker-payment" target="_blank">JobSeeker payment</a> from March 20. It’s the same as the <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/newstart-allowance/how-much-you-can-get" target="_blank">NewStart rate</a> – A$326 per week (including average rent assistance) – so it is clear they will be in immediate rental stress.
It’s worth noting this rental crisis is compounded because NewStart has not kept pace with rental increases over the last 25 years. NewStart has been increased by CPI only. The chart below shows how wide the gap between Melbourne rent price increases and CPI has become.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320901/original/file-20200316-27648-dca69x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Median increase in Melbourne rents and CPI, June 1999 – December 2019. Source: Rental Report, Department of Health &amp; Human Services (Dec 2019), Consumer Price Index (ABS), Authors' calculations
<h2>So what needs to be done?</h2>
The loss of income for casual workers will result in extreme rental stress for people who were already on low incomes. This issue demands urgent attention to prevent a homelessness epidemic. Agencies like the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/calls-for-housing-eviction-bans-during-coronavirus-outbreak/12060484?fbclid=IwAR0ND56d2GClAg-JNwdtQm6m59rcurdNjBV_M4kl9DbXKgFUDe-PB1q-Y1U" target="_blank">Council for Homeless Persons</a> are already calling for an immediate moratorium on evictions.
Landlords have a responsibility here as well since they benefit from continuity of rentals and the contribution of government policy to their wealth and assets. For example, low-income rents are paid out of a combination of regular earnings, benefit payments and rent assistance. These will now be supplemented because people on low incomes are likely to use the stimulus package to keep up.
The challenge for the government is to provide support to people on very low incomes that will see them through the entire COVID-19 crisis. One solution would be to immediately increase the JobSeeker payment to help people on low incomes ride out the downturn in casual work. Another solution would be to provide replacement income for casual workers affected by the downturn.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133782/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/simone-casey-130516" target="_blank">Simone Casey</a>, Research Associate, Future Social Service Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063" target="_blank">RMIT University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liss-ralston-295934" target="_blank">Liss Ralston</a>, Urban Statistician, Centre for Urban Transitions, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/swinburne-university-of-technology-767" target="_blank">Swinburne University of Technology</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-puts-casual-workers-at-risk-of-homelessness-unless-they-get-more-support-133782" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Coronavirus puts casual workers at risk of homelessness unless they get more support

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GUEST OBSERVER
Wesfarmers’ decision to close or rebrand up to 167 of its 284 Target and Target Country stores should not come as too much of a surprise.
The once popular store has been ailing for years, outmanoeuvred by its successful and popular <a href="https://www.wesfarmers.com.au/our-businesses/kmart-group" target="_blank">sister business</a>, Kmart.
Up to 75 Target and Target Country stores will be closed, with the balance being converted to Kmart stores.
Its decline is due to a combination of poor market positioning, confusing product strategies, a declining middle class consumer market and too much similarity with Kmart. The impacts of COVID-19 are just the icing on the cake.
<h2>Spiralling sales and profit</h2>
Wesfarmers acquired both retail chains when it took over the Coles Group in 2007. At the time Target looked the stronger business, and Wesfarmers <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-wesfarmers-coles/wesfarmers-plans-coles-investment-restructuring-idUSSYD11087920070816?sp=true" target="_blank">considered selling all or part of Kmart</a>, or converting stores to the Target brand.
Just as well it decided to invest in Kmart instead.
Since 2012, Target’s profits and sales have deteriorated with Target realising its first <a href="https://www.wesfarmers.com.au/docs/default-source/reports/2016-annual-report.pdf?sfvrsn=4" target="_blank">loss of A$195 million in 2016</a>.
How Target has performed since then has been obscured by Wesfarmers combining the business into a <a href="https://www.wesfarmers.com.au/docs/default-source/asx-announcements/2018-annual-report.pdf?sfvrsn=0" target="_blank">Department Stores Division</a> including Kmart and Kmart Tyre and Auto Service. Target’s results were thus no longer reported separately.
But Wesfarmers’ <a href="https://www.wesfarmers.com.au/docs/default-source/asx-announcements/2019-annual-report.pdf?sfvrsn=0" target="_blank">2019 annual report</a> noted its trading performance highlighted “the need for ongoing repositioning to further elevate quality and style, expand its digital capabilities, and differentiate the business from Kmart and other competitors”.
<h2>High couture and cheap kettles</h2>
One way Target confused shoppers was to offer collaborations with high-end fashion designers like Missoni, Stella McCartney, Dion Lee and <a href="https://insideretail.com.au/news/targets-next-designer-partnership-revealed-201511" target="_blank">Dannii Minogue</a>, alongside $2 kids’ tops and <a href="http://www.target-catalogue.com/target-catalogue-february-2015-back-to-school/" target="_blank">cheap kitchenware</a>.
The move frustrated customers unable to secure designer pieces and disenfranchised “value-seeking” customers. Many voted with their wallets, moving to Kmart.
Wesfarmers’ <a href="https://insideretail.com.au/news/wesfarmers-to-reposition-target-cuts-head-office-roles-201908" target="_blank">plans to differentiate Target</a> from Kmart involved focusing on higher quality apparel, soft homewares and toys to compete against more specialty and middle market offerings.
But the middle market is a challenging sector. It is now dominated by “fast fashion” players offering on-trend clothing and home furnishing. The pressures have led to the collapse of other middle market chains.
Wesfarmers was very aware of the risks associated with this strategy.
Its 2017 <a href="https://www.wesfarmers.com.au/docs/default-source/default-document-library/2017-annual-report.pdf?sfvrsn=0" target="_blank">annual report</a> stated:
“Target’s strategy has been reset and the business is now focused on progressing changes to the operating model to better position the business to grow earnings into the future. This journey will be undertaken in an increasingly competitive apparel and general merchandise environment”.
<h2>Death of department stores</h2>
The attempted shift in focus to a middle market department store only created more problems.
Department stores worldwide have faced challenging times in recent years. The past year alone has seen department store icons including Barney’s, Debenhams and JCPenney <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurendebter/2020/05/14/jcpenney-bankruptcy-protection-coronavirus/#5c84870521c8" target="_blank">file for bankruptcy or close for good</a>. Closer to home, Harris Scarfe <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/fallen-icon-the-undoing-of-harris-scarfe-20200109-p53q7j" target="_blank">went into receivership</a> in December 2019, while Myer and David Jones <a href="https://10daily.com.au/news/australia/a190829aclgz/david-jones-to-shrink-stores-as-profits-fall-20190830" target="_blank">have looked to consolidate stores</a>.
Department stores face many challenges from competition and changing consumer behaviour. However, a broader challenge is a <a href="https://www.oecd.org/social/under-pressure-the-squeezed-middle-class-689afed1-en.htm" target="_blank">declining middle class</a> that has been the cornerstone of the sector’s customer base.
Target’s strategy to move further into the middle market was always doomed for limited success.
<h2>Pandemic impacts</h2>
Adding to department store woes is the COVID-19 pandemic.
Already reeling from a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-06/retail-sales-december/11937224" target="_blank">weak Christmas period</a> and the effects of the bushfires, retailers were hoping for a return to spending. Instead, they have been faced with store closures and possibly permanent shifts in consumer behaviour.
While some retailers have simply tried to survive the lockdowns, others are <a href="https://insideretail.com.au/news/ive-spoken-to-dozens-of-retail-execs-in-the-last-two-weeks-heres-what-i-learned-202004" target="_blank">re-evaluating their future</a>. For Wesfarmers, this means shifting focus from the struggling Target to the more popular and profitable Kmart.
But though the pandemic has undoubtedly had an unprecedented and substantial impact on the retail industry, in some cases it only accelerating outcomes already on the cards.
So Target is unlikely to be the last retailer to undergo radical surgery. Retailers like the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/hype-dc-platypus-owner-to-shut-stores-after-big-leap-in-online-sales-20200427-p54ni0" target="_blank">Accent Group</a> and <a href="https://insideretail.com.au/news/pas-group-may-shutter-underperforming-stores-in-restructure-202004" target="_blank">PAS Group</a> have flagged similar plans.
Expect further announcements as retailers evaluate how to survive.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139205/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jason-pallant-8729" target="_blank">Jason Pallant</a>, Lecturer of Marketing, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/swinburne-university-of-technology-767" target="_blank">Swinburne University of Technology</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gary-mortimer-1322" target="_blank">Gary Mortimer</a>, Professor of Marketing and Consumer Behaviour, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/queensland-university-of-technology-847" target="_blank">Queensland University of Technology</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-blame-covid-19-targets-decline-is-part-of-a-deeper-trend-139205" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Don’t blame COVID-19: Target’s decline is part of a deeper trend

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GUEST OBSERVATION
It’s sad times for public universities as they fight for their survival. Most are reeling from a severe financial hit due to the loss of international students.
Universities are <a href="https://www.universitiesaustralia.edu.au/media-item/investment-in-university-research-an-investment-in-covid-19-recovery" target="_blank">estimated to lose</a> around A$3-4.6 billion in revenue from international student fees in 2020 alone, and more in 2021.
The government has locked universities out of JobKeeper – its COVID-19 wage subsidy scheme – despite the fact the sector is <a href="https://www.universitiesaustralia.edu.au/media-item/investment-in-university-research-an-investment-in-covid-19-recovery" target="_blank">projected to lose around 21,000 jobs</a>, of which 7,000 are estimated to be research-related.
International onshore <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://docs.education.gov.au/node/53363" target="_blank">student revenue</a> was, as a share of all universities’ revenue, 26.2% on average in 2018, just shy of A$9 billion. For some universities, the dependency on international students is even greater, at around 30-40%.
Many in the government criticise universities for relying so heavily on international students for revenue. For instance, <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansards/e82a8a20-f72d-41d5-90fb-806930fffbba/&amp;sid=0178" target="_blank">Senator James Paterson recently</a> told the Senate:
Over the last few decades our universities have bet big on the international-student dollar. Their institutions have boomed from what has been a very lucrative business, but they have become badly overexposed […] Universities argue they have pursued this market by necessity. They argue insufficient government funding pushed them down this path. It’s a convenient story that attempts to absolve universities of responsibility for the decisions they have made, and it is a false one.
But such views are false. And they ignore the history of international students from Asia studying in our universities.
<h2>A history of international education</h2>
In 1923, Sydney University accepted its first Chinese overseas student, N.Y. Shah from Wuhan, who was studying to become a teacher back in China.
From the 1950s, children of Chinese diaspora parents from countries such as Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong began to arrive in Australia to study.
This rarely mentioned cohort of private overseas students studied alongside students supported by the well-known Colombo Plan – an intergovernmental effort to strengthen economic and social development of member countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
In fact, so prominent was the Colombo Plan’s efforts in bringing students to study in Australia, it is still incorrectly believed to be the first major source of overseas students.
Historian <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10314610708601233" target="_blank">Lyndon Megarrity estimates</a> the Colombo Plan brought less than one-fifth of overseas students to Australia in the 1950s and 1960s. The vast majority came as private overseas students.
They went to Australian schools, sat for university matriculation and for those who passed, proceeded to university either funded by the generous Commonwealth scholarship scheme or by paying substantially subsidised university fees, just like Australian citizens.
By 1966, archival research shows private overseas students constituted 8.9% of full-time university enrolments and their numbers were growing. Immigration restrictions were also loosened to mean citizenship was available to private overseas students who had lived in Australia for at least five years.
Most met the conditions after attending two years of high school and the three year minimum for a degree.
While some stayed, of those I interviewed for a UNSW survey of overseas students who studied at the university in the 1950s and 1960s, it seems most returned to their home countries where an Australian university degree promised excellent career prospects.
There was obviously something about Australian education and society that appealed to our Asian neighbours, and pulled them to Australia where they lived for five years and more.
<h2>An unofficial government policy</h2>
In 1990 the Australian government introduced full fees for all international students. John Dawkins, the then Minister for Employment, Education and Training, saw an opportunity to establish university education as an export industry.
The year 1990 is significant because the Australian government was in the process of implementing the Dawkins reforms which reorganised the once diversified public higher education sector into a single national system.
The aim of the Dawkins reforms was to encourage more Australian school leavers to attend university and, on graduation, become part of a highly-skilled and educated national workforce.
To help fund this vastly expanded system and rein in costs, the government introduced HECS. Students could postpone subsidised and interest-free fees until their salary reached a certain level when they would repay the loan through the taxation system.
International student fees at this stage were not a significant source of university income. But they became so from the early 2000s after a decade of reduced government funding and a significant expansion of local student numbers.
Since government funding no longer covered the full costs of expensive research or the strong growth in domestic students, universities had to find funds from elsewhere.
It can be said that international student fees have become an unofficial part of the funding policy of consecutive federal governments.
Government actions and inactions that led to such a reliance on international fee income have created a system that challenges a belief many of us hold dear – public universities should be able to draw on public funds for their operations.
Where in 1989 universities derived more than 80% of their operating costs from the public purse, now it is estimated to be less than 40% – a figure well below the OECD average for public investment in tertiary education.
<h2>Where to from here</h2>
Since the 2000s, the shortfall has been largely made up by international student fees which have enabled universities to punch above their weight. On a population parity basis we have <a href="https://www.dreducation.com/top-500-world-class-universities-rankings" target="_blank">more universities </a> in the world’s top 500 (by some metrics) than Canada, the United Kingdom and United States.
And 2018 figures show we have some of the highest participation rates of school leavers in the world, at least 30% higher than is the case in the United Kingdom. 
Our universities also contribute enormously to national research and development – international student fees help sustain this. The <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/8111.0" target="_blank">Australian Bureau of Statistics</a> confirmed this week more than half of the A$12 billion universities invest in research each year comes from a pool of funds that relies on international student fees.
International students, however, should not simply be measured by the fees they pay. Evidence shows while here, students contribute to the well-being of Australians by fuelling economic growth and prosperity that provides jobs for Australians.
University doctoral students and postdoctoral fellows are a large component of Australia’s research and development workforce. International students make up <a href="https://www.science.org.au/covid19/research-workforce" target="_blank">37% of this vital group</a>, working on important projects like breeding drought resilient crops, developing cures for diseases like COVID-19, and world-leading efficient solar and plastic recycling technology.
Some international students remain in Australia as our largest single source of skilled migrants. Others return to their home country to become leaders in business, politics and cultural industries with a respect and appreciation of Australian culture. We should nurture this good will, not trash it.
This essay is based on an episode of the University of Technology Sydney podcast series “<a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/partners-and-community/initiatives/impact-studios/projects/new-social-contract-podcast" target="_blank">The New Social Contract</a>”. The audio series examines how the relationship between universities, the state and the public might be reshaped as we live through this global pandemic.
The next article linked to the podcast will look at universities and the climate.
<a href="https://player.whooshkaa.com/episode?id=649529" target="_blank">Context of the Crisis</a> was made by <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/partners-and-community/initiatives/impact-studios/about-us" target="_blank">Impact Studios</a> at the University of Technology, Sydney - an audio production house combining academic research and audio storytelling.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138796/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/julia-horne-16152" target="_blank">Julia Horne</a>, University Historian and Principal Research Fellow, History, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841" target="_blank">University of Sydney</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-universities-came-to-rely-on-international-students-138796" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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How universities came to rely on international students 

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The Minister for Industrial Relations Christian Porter has reportedly intervened to ensure the workplace safety watchdog dumped strict rules on social distancing in lifts.
Porter feared long and costly bottlenecks would occur in office towers as the country goes back to work.
<source media="(min-width: 1180px)" data-pb-im-config='{"aspectRatio":1,"type":"square1x1","width":220,"urls":["https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.229%2C$multiply_0.582%2C$ratio_1%2C$width_378%2C$x_62%2C$y_8/t_crop_custom/e_sharpen:25%2Cq_85%2Cf_auto/0a614b89988117528dbf5ca524b204acd6a99054"," https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.229%2C$multiply_1.164%2C$ratio_1%2C$width_378%2C$x_62%2C$y_8/t_crop_custom/e_sharpen:25%2Cq_42%2Cf_auto/0a614b89988117528dbf5ca524b204acd6a99054 2x"]}' srcset="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.229%2C$multiply_0.582%2C$ratio_1%2C$width_378%2C$x_62%2C$y_8/t_crop_custom/e_sharpen:25%2Cq_85%2Cf_auto/0a614b89988117528dbf5ca524b204acd6a99054, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.229%2C$multiply_1.164%2C$ratio_1%2C$width_378%2C$x_62%2C$y_8/t_crop_custom/e_sharpen:25%2Cq_42%2Cf_auto/0a614b89988117528dbf5ca524b204acd6a99054 2x"></source>
It is claimed the revised Safe Work Australia guidelines were released were safe, but practical.
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Porter said he had raised the issue with the agency, but it was a matter for Safe Work to rule on, Nine Entertainment's AFR reported.
"Ultimately it is a matter for Safe Work Australia to determine the appropriate guidance to provide to industry. Neither the government, nor I as minister, can change that guidance."
<div class="_1bH_l" data-experiment-target="relatedStory">"I’m advised that the chief health officers from all states and territories reported that they were comfortable with the updated advice."</div>
The agency reversed its guidelines on Wednesday.
Workers in lifts should still maintain their distance and avoid touching other people in lifts, a Safe Work Australia spokeswoman said on Thursday.
"If a lift is full based on the advised passenger limits, workers should wait for the next lift," she said.
"If they need to cough or sneeze during a lift journey they must do so into their arm or a clean tissue. They should wash their hands, or where this is not possible, use appropriate hand sanitiser, after exiting the lift, particularly if they touched lift buttons, rails or doors, and not attend work if they are unwell."
It has been previously reported physical distancing rules could force workers in Australia Square Tower to wait as long as three hours to get up and down the landmark building at the start and end of the day, as the 1.5-metre requirement allows no more than two people in its lifts at the same time.
 
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Safe Work Australia dumps 1.5m social distancing for office lifts

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Sydney house prices could fall by as much as 15 per cent next year, while Melbourne could see a 17 per cent drop, according to an HSBC analysis.
Australian house prices could tumble 12 per cent in 2021, as a U-shaped recovery and COVID-19-related policies take their toll, Paul Bloxham, chief economist at HSBC, suggests.
However this year, the gains already accumulated before the pandemic will offset the decline in prices expected in the second half.
Nationally, prices could end 6 per cent higher, with Sydney up as much as 9 per cent and Melbourne as much as 7 per cent higher.
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Bloxham predicts stalled migration and rising unemployment were likely to drive housing oversupply.
However Bloxham said low interest rates would work to make the housing market attractive to borrowers.
<div>The overall impact, Mr Bloxham said, was that national housing prices will fall between 2 per cent and 12 per cent in the 2021 financial year.</div>
The drop could even be deeper if the economic recovery was an “L” or “W” shape.
</div>
Next year Sydney prices could fall between 5 per cent to 15 per cent, with Melbourne dropping by 7 per cent to 17 per cent.
The analysis was by HSBC's chief economist, Paul Bloxham, and colleague Daniel Smith.
"Forecasting housing prices is difficult at the best of times, but at the moment it is particularly challenging," they wrote.
<div data-testid="ad-wrapper">
<div id="adspot-320x360_320x120_320x50_300x250_300x50-pos2-mobile"> "We expect larger declines in housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne than in Australia's other cities, given greater reliance in these cities on migration and foreign students, which have stalled as a result of border closures."</div>
</div>
<div id="endOfArticle" class="_3PsH9">
 
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Sydney house prices could fall by 15 per cent, and Melbourne 17 per cent drop next year: HSBC

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As Australia begins to relax its COVID-19 restrictions there is understandable debate about how quickly that should proceed, and whether lockdowns even made sense in Australia in the first place.
The sceptics arguing for more rapid relaxation of containment measures point to the economic costs of lockdowns and appeal to the cold calculus of <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cost-benefitanalysis.asp" target="_blank">cost-benefit analysis</a> to conclude that the lives saved by lockdowns don’t justify the economic costs incurred to do so.
Their numbers don’t stack up.
To be able to weigh the value of a life against the economic costs of forgone output from lost jobs and business closures, requires placing a dollar value on one person’s life. This number is called the value of a statistical life.
In Australia, the Government generally uses a value of A$<a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/Value_of_Statistical_Life_guidance_note.pdf" target="_blank">4.9 million</a>. The United States uses a value of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-value-of-life/" target="_blank">US$10 million</a>.
What are the benefits of the shutdown? This is the value of lives saved plus any indirect economic or health benefits. Lives saved are those excess lives that would be lost if government relied on a strategy that allowed enough people to get infected to result in so-called <a href="https://www.webmd.com/lung/what-is-herd-immunity#1" target="_blank">herd immunity</a>.
How many extra lives would be lost under this second strategy?
To answer this, we need assumptions about the virus.
<h2>The lives lost if we let it rip</h2>
The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/europe/coronavirus-R0-explainer?referringSource=articleShare" target="_blank">initial reproduction rate</a> of the virus, R0, was thought to be about 2.5. This means that every 2 people infected were likely to infect another 5; producing an average infection rate per person of 2.5.
Herd immunity for COVID-19 is estimated to require roughly 60% of the population be infected before the <a href="https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve" target="_blank">curve begins to flatten</a> and the peak infections fall.
This happens when the reproduction rate, R0, falls below one. Because of subsequent new infections, the total number infected over the course of the pandemic is closer to 90%.
Given a population of 25 million people and assuming a fatality rate of 1%, this would produce 225,000 deaths.
An assumption of a 1% fatality rate is low from the perspective of those making decisions at the onset of the pandemic, at a time when crucial and reliable data were missing.
<h2>Those lives are valued at $1.1 trillion</h2>
Converting those fatalities to dollars using the Australian value of a statistical life of A$4.9 million per life yields a cost of A$1.1 trillion.
In rough terms, that’s the amount we have gained by shutting down the economy, provided deaths do not skyrocket when lockdown measures are relaxed and borders re-open.
It is about three fifths of one year’s gross domestic product, which is about A$1.9 trillion.
What are the costs of the shutdown?
These are the direct economic costs from reduced economic activity plus the indirect social, medical, and economic costs, all measured in terms of national income.
A starting point is to take the lost income that occurs from the recession that has probably already begun.
<h2>What will the shutdown cost?</h2>
Let’s assume that the downturn results in a 10% drop in gross domestic product over 2020 and 2021 – about $180 billion – consistent with IMF forecasts of a fall in GDP of 6.7% in 2020 and a sharp rebound of 6.1% growth in 2021, and comparable to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s forecasts in the latest <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2020/may/" target="_blank">Statement on Monetary Policy</a>.
Comparing this cost from shutting down – about $180 billion – to the benefit of $1,103 billion – makes the case for shutdown clear.
But this calculation grossly overestimates the costs of the shutdown.
The recession is a consequence of both the shutdown and the pandemic.
We need to attribute costs to each.
Most of the economic costs of the recession are likely to be due to the pandemic itself rather the shutdown.
<h2>Many costs would have been borne anyway</h2>
Even before the shutdown, economic activity was in decline.
Both in Australia and internationally air travel, restaurant bookings and a range of other activities had fallen sharply.
They were the result of a “private shutdown” that commenced before the mandated government shutdown.
Even in a country such as Sweden, where a shutdown has not been mandatory, there has been a more than 75% reduction in movement in central Stockholm and a more than 90% reduction in travel to some domestic holiday destinations.
To be generous, let’s assume the costs attributable to the government-mandated part of the shutdown are half of the total costs, making their cost A$90 billion.
In reality, they are likely to be less, one important study suggests <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.04630.pdf" target="_blank">much less</a>.
It is hard to imagine a much bigger private shutdown not taking place had the government decided to simply let the disease rip until its spread was slowed by herd immunity.
<h2>Support is not a cost</h2>
It is also important to note that the government’s spending of A$214 billion to support the economy during the shutdown is a transfer of resources from one part of society to another rather than a cost.
It creates neither direct costs nor benefits for society as a whole, other than the economic distortions coming from raising the revenue to service the spending.
With long-term government bond rates near 1% (less than inflation), the total cost of distortions is likely to be tiny.
Of course, this discussion simplifies what are incredibly complex social, health and economic questions. There are clearly further costs, from both relaxing restrictions and keeping them in place.
<h2>Other costs are not that big</h2>
These costs are worthy of serious study and should rightly be part of a comprehensive public policy discussion. But looked at through the lens of a cost-benefit analysis these combined effects are likely to be small relative to the value of preventing mass death.
Among them are the incidence of mental health problems and domestic violence under lockdowns. They are important concerns that should be addressed by targeted and well-designed programs.
Weighing against that is evidence that economic crises are associated with <a href="https://voxeu.org/article/economic-crises-and-mortality" target="_blank">declines</a> in overall mortality rates. 
While suicides rise, total mortality, including deaths from heart attacks and workplace and traffic accidents, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/02/coronavirus-economy-reopen-deaths-balance-analysis-159248" target="_blank">falls</a>.
In the specific case of this pandemic there is <a href="https://psyarxiv.com/3kfmh" target="_blank">survey evidence</a> based on respondents from 58 countries suggesting that strong government responses to the pandemic have been reducing worry and depression.
Also, we have to acknowledge that recessions and educational disruption have health and economic costs that are unequally spread.
The shutdown disproportionately impacts more-disadvantaged people including short-term casual workers, migrant workers, those with disabilities and the homeless.
<h2>The most-disadvantaged suffer, either way</h2>
This skewing will also be present in the herd immunity option. As New York City makes clear, a rapid spread of the disease also disproportionately impacts disadvantaged communities. One can only speculate about the disease burden should some of our remote indigenous communities get exposed.
To this we should add further achievements of the shutdown:
<ul>
<li>
elimination of mental trauma and grief from losing our loved ones
</li>
<li>
avoiding the costs of possible longer-term implications of the disease, which we still know little about
</li>
<li>
avoiding a collapse in the capacity of the health system to deal with other emergencies through the sheer numbers of COVID-19 infected combined with staff shortages due to illness
</li>
</ul>
Those advocating cost-benefit analysis of this kind have to apply the principle systematically. It is difficult to see how the total of these sorts of considerations on each side of the ledger could compare to the benefit of lives saved. They will be an order of magnitude, if not two, smaller.
<h2>$90 billion, versus $1.1 trillion</h2>
In the cold calculus of cost-benefit analysis, a highly pessimistic view of the economic costs of Australia’s shutdown comes to around $90 billion.
It is a small price to pay compared to the statistical value of lives the shutdown should save, around A$1.1 trillion.
It produces a simple message. The shutdown wins.
The question we now face is how quickly to relax restrictions. Here, too, there are costs and benefits, and we need to be mindful of the economic cost of a second-wave outbreak, plus mortality costs of disease spread before effective treatments or vaccine become available.
And in all of this bean counting, we should remember that putting a price tag on human life is sometimes unavoidable – such as when a doctor with access to only one ventilator has to choose between two patients.
But we shouldn’t mistake necessity for desirability. We should seek to avoid needing to make such wrenching choices whenever possible.
Dr Jen Schaefer of the Royal Children’s Hospital Melbourne assisted with the preparation of this piece.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138303/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-preston-452859" target="_blank">Bruce Preston</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-costs-of-the-shutdown-are-overestimated-theyre-outweighed-by-its-1-trillion-benefit-138303" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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