<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> has lodged plans for a $750 million, three-tower mixed-use precinct that would complete the long-running redevelopment of Carlton's former Carlton United Breweries site.

The proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/185-195-queensberry-street-carlton-vic-3053">46-78 Bouverie Street and 185-195 Queensberry Street</a> spans a 6,468 sqm site, the last remaining undeveloped parcels within the former brewery's 2007 masterplan.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the development will comprise two purpose-built student accommodation towers and a third build-to-sell apartment tower above a shared commercial podium and basement.

Across the three towers, SP Setia is proposing 606 build-to-sell apartments and 1,499 student accommodation units containing 2,009 beds.

The apartments will sit in the tallest tower, which will rise nearly 200m and 55 storeys. It will become&nbsp;one of the more substantial new build-to-sell apartment projects at the northern edge of Melbourne's CBD.

The apartment mix is weighted toward smaller inner-city product, with 188 studios, 206 one-bedroom apartments, 192 two-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedroom apartments

<img alt="First look: SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8271bc87-1b0a-41b7-ac73-a425ee375261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/3_2.png?VersionId=G4lw23o90B1boX4k4dj7rdz2ZEajS9wy" />

Part of the precinct will be a large-scale&nbsp;3,684 sqm supermarket and a further 2,198 sqm of speciality retail, creating close to 5,900 sqm of new commercial space within the precinct.

But one of the biggest components of the proposal is what sits between the buildings.

Around 4,650 sqm, or roughly 72 per cent of the site, will be publicly accessible open space, incorporating plazas, pedestrian connections, landscaped laneways and retail spill-out areas.

The ground plane is intended to finally complete pedestrian connections envisaged when the CUB masterplan was first approved nearly two decades ago, stitching together Victoria Street, Queensberry Street, Bouverie Street and Swanston Street through the former brewery precinct.

Urbis said the development would "complete the CUB precinct", with the public realm providing important north-south and east-west connections through what is currently the final undeveloped portion of the masterplanned site.

SP Setia is also exploring a new linear park within the Bouverie Street road reserve, with the concept to be developed further with the City of Melbourne through the planning process.

The proposal is being pursued through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program under Clause 53.23 for significant residential development with affordable housing.

The planning report acknowledges the proposed heights exceed those contemplated under the original Comprehensive Development Plan and masterplan, but argues the built-form context has changed considerably over the past two decades.

Urbis said the three towers would instead create a stepped transition between Carlton and the Hoddle Grid, rising progressively from the 94.1-metre Tower One along the Queensberry Street edge to the 199.44-metre Tower Three closer to the established CBD-scale buildings to the south.

<img alt="SP Setia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e885a07a-592c-40fc-bf82-e6dbaf32da54" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.52.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7s_ErUkSKAdY1mAWp3GRZgMNCGtwhk5m" />

SP Setia plans to deliver the development across three stages.

Stage One would deliver the basement, podium and retail areas for the entire precinct alongside the first student tower. Tower Two would follow in Stage Two, before the 606-apartment Tower Three is delivered as the final stage.

If approved and delivered, the project would close out a redevelopment process that has been underway since the former brewery masterplan was approved in 2007, adding more than 2,600 student beds and apartments to a precinct already home to Swanston Central, the Barak Building, RMIT Design Hub and several large student accommodation developments.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct

Melbourne developer Lowe Living is seeking to add to its growing bayside apartment pipeline, filing plans for a boutique eight-residence development in tightly held Middle Park.

Lowe Living, which has built much of its development portfolio across Melbourne's affluent bayside and south-east suburbs, is behind the plans for the 730 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/123-125-erskine-street-middle-park-vic-3206">123-125 Erskine Street</a>, just off Armstrong Street and within the Armstrong Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre.

The developer is seeking approval for a five-storey residential building above two basement levels, with just eight large-format apartments and 18 car spaces.

“This is a deliberately very different proposition for us,"&nbsp;Tim Lowe, Co-Founder of Lowe Living, said.

"Eight residences is exceptionally boutique, but that's precisely what this site calls for.

“There is a strong community in Middle Park and the surrounding suburbs who have spent decades building a life here. They no longer want the maintenance of a large period home, but they aren't prepared to compromise on space, quality or location. We think there is a real opportunity to capture that hyper local market. A site like this rarely comes to market.”

<img alt="Lowe " data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="875fe572-0f14-4d90-9e11-55b28dd07731" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.42.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GDNQRv9BfpR9r1zkZ5UDyUM4ZvpIksut" />

The low-density proposal has been designed by Cera Stribley and is being progressed through the Victorian Government's Great Design Fast Track pathway, having already secured eligibility from the Minister for Planning.

The Office of the Victorian Government Architect supported its eligibility after finding the proposal demonstrated consistency with the program's seven design principles, while the project's financial feasibility has also been independently confirmed by Invest Victoria.

The project is targeting the downsizer market, with the planning documents describing the homes as larger-format residences and noting the two penthouses could otherwise have been configured as four separate apartments.

<img alt="Lowe 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="60ab0987-2da6-4175-adac-315dcf6053c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bOCPH0B2MFwlmaRW.TTCF9TzyifgVoQI" />

The site has dual frontage to Erskine Street and Canterbury Place and currently comprises a collection of commercial buildings used as offices, including a former heritage bakehouse, a former stable, a later gabled addition and a central courtyard.

It sits within the Commercial 1 Zone and the Armstrong Street Commercial Precinct heritage overlay, with the existing property classified as a contributory heritage place.

Heritage has subsequently played a significant role in Cera Stribley's design.

The front section of the former bakehouse facing Erskine Street will be retained, including its return walls, street-facing hipped roof and chimneys, while the Erskine Street façade and part of the western return wall of the former stable will also be incorporated into the new development.

Levels four and five will be set back five metres from the retained stable façade, while bricks removed through demolition are proposed to be salvaged and reused within the new building where possible.

<img alt="Lowe 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e97927a9-a2de-4a0f-83b6-65451238abfa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VR44AChLrX9q1XPB9GvVQV.ALXXbe4gC" />

Rather than presenting as a single five-storey building to Erskine Street, Cera Stribley has broken the development into a series of distinct forms.

A three-storey infill element will sit between the retained bakehouse and stable façades, with the upper levels recessed behind the heritage fabric. Canterbury Place will similarly feature two three-storey podium forms, separated by a central pedestrian accessway, before the upper two levels step back from the street.

A pedestrian through-link will run through the centre of the project between Erskine Street and Canterbury Place, creating entrances from both sides of the site and introducing landscaping and communal areas through the ground plane.

Landscape architect Acre has designed planting across the ground level, private terraces and upper levels, including a feature canopy tree at level three and integrated planting and arbours across the level four terraces. Five existing Erskine Street trees are proposed to be retained.

Sustainability is also a significant component of the Great Design Fast Track application. The apartments are targeting an average eight-star NatHERS rating, with no residence below 6.5 stars, while the project has achieved a 75 per cent BESS score. Seven of the eight apartments are designed for cross-ventilation, with the remaining residence using mechanically assisted natural ventilation.

The plans also incorporate an 8kWp rooftop solar system, a 5,000-litre rainwater tank and infrastructure allowing future electric vehicle charging for every residence.

Lowe has a strong portfolio across Melbourne's blue-chip suburbs. They recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House by Lowe Living</a> in Camberwell, their first development in the Stonnington LGA.

Lowe Living unveils Middle Park apartment development

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

<a data-end="327" data-is-only-node="" data-start="250" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/norus-projects" rel="noopener" target="_new">Norus Developments</a> has lodged plans for a new apartment development in Clayton that would add further momentum to the suburb's emerging Green Street corridor.

Plans have been lodged for the consolidated site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1359-1365-centre-road-clayton-vic-3168">1359-1365 Centre Road</a>, where Norus is seeking approval for 218 apartments across a 12-storey apartment building designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/life-architecture-and-urban-design">Life Architecture</a>.

The proposal sits within the Clayton Major Activity Centre at the threshold of the planned Green Street corridor, a landscaped pedestrian connection intended to improve links through the precinct towards Clayton Railway Station.

The development would replace the site's existing collection of low-scale residential and commercial buildings with a single consolidated building, introducing significantly greater housing density to this part of Centre Road.

A retail tenancy is proposed at ground level to activate the Centre Road frontage, accompanied by transparent street interfaces and landscaping intended to create a more pedestrian-focused edge to the development.

<img alt="First look: Norus Developments plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a5a763a-d9e9-4253-af2f-88008de27ebf" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Clayton%20a.png?VersionId=S2WJJbat1XVkZwB9SnYtygirXgWHiklX" />

The building has been designed with stepped massing and upper-level setbacks to manage its transition towards surrounding residential properties. The planning report describes the approach as one that integrates the building into the landscape rather than treating landscaping as a secondary element.

"A strong landscape and public realm strategy underpins the proposal," Urbis states in the planning report.

"Public benefits include an affordable housing contribution, a new pocket park, generous landscaped setbacks, deep soil planting and integrated Water Sensitive Urban Design."

The report adds that these elements are intended to create "a permeable, pedestrian-focused ground plane that enhances walkability, supports urban cooling and reinforces the emerging Green Street character."

Biophilic and passive design principles extend through the residential levels, with planting, daylight, natural ventilation and views towards landscaped areas forming part of the amenity strategy.

Parking would be concentrated away from the public realm, with 145 car spaces proposed from the rear laneway rather than dominating the Centre Road frontage.

The proposal follows an extensive pre-application process with the City of Monash. Three formal meetings were held between the project team and Council from December 2025 to March 2026, with the scheme evolving through several concept iterations before the current design was lodged.

The project arrives as Clayton prepares for substantial change around its established activity centre and the wider Suburban Rail Loop precinct. Its position on Centre Road places the development within an existing concentration of shops, services and public transport, while the Green Street connection is intended to strengthen pedestrian access towards Clayton Railway Station.

First look: Norus plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> has officially commenced construction on Bronze on Chevron, celebrating the sod turning of its first-ever Gold Coast development and marking a significant milestone in the company's continued expansion across South East Queensland.&nbsp;

Following the successful delivery of premium residential developments throughout Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-chevron-island-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> represents Gardner Vaughan Group's entry into the Gold Coast market. Bronze will deliver 119 one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments above two ground-level retail tenancies.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367193]

The recent sod turning ceremony was attended by Deputy Mayor Mark Hammel, President of the Surfers Paradise Surf Life Saving Club, Cassandra Sedgman, project consultants, purchasers, project partners and invited guests to celebrate the commencement of construction.&nbsp;

Gardner Vaughan Group Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge said Bronze on Chevron represented an exciting new chapter for the business.&nbsp;

"We've spent almost four decades building homes that respond to the way people want to live, and we're excited to bring that experience to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chevron-island-qld-4217">Chevron Island</a>," Betteridge said.

"Bronze on Chevron is particularly significant because it marks Gardner Vaughan Group's first development on the Gold Coast following many successful projects across Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367183]

Betteridge said the ground breaking is a proud moment for the&nbsp;team and their purchasers, who can now see their future homes beginning to take shape.&nbsp;

"As both developer and builder, we're able to oversee every aspect of the project from design through to construction, ensuring the quality and attention to detail Gardner Vaughan Group has become renowned for."&nbsp;

Designed by acclaimed architectural practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, Bronze on Chevron has been thoughtfully designed to complement Chevron Island's evolving streetscape while embracing its relaxed coastal lifestyle.

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029

Gardner Vaughan Group breaks ground on first Gold Coast development, Bronze on Chevron

COVID-19

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<div>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Very few cases of COVID-19 in Australia, with a handful of cases returning from overseas and headed to quarantine. 
 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4cgHNMSh-oQ/Xsx2s06IRqI/AAAAAAAA16g/wDLDtpPvcfkunQPJ6ms16Hj1eSX8Ba3kQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1410"></div>
 <div>Recoveries continue to comfortably outstrip new cases.</div>
 <div>And, importantly, we're consistently seeing zero deaths reported on a daily basis, with few serious cases even going as far as ICU. </div>
 <div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Oq1uYHyB-KM/Xsx2tGzEx0I/AAAAAAAA16o/8yxL_txLTsEmUkq7S9oXm1PF9d9-Es09gCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV2.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1409"></div>
 <div>There are 5 cases remaining in ICU nationally, against the expanded capacity of 7,500 beds.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Confidence returning</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Consumer confidence increased for an 8th consecutive week, up by +0.4 per cent to a reading of 92.7 points according to ANZ-Roy Morgan.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Future financial conditions gained by +3.2 per cent and is approaching its long term average reading.</div>
 <div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vCSe5Ue0BOI/Xsx2s1gwkFI/AAAAAAAA16k/Zeb8FGowur8NGJMmSaZfv2E44F65IjhawCPcBGAYYCw/s640/CC2.jpg" width="640" height="502" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1011"></div>
 <div>Source: ANZ-Roy Morgan</div>
 <div>Credit card usage data shows that Aussies are willing and able to spend again, but realistically travel restrictions needs to be eased before the economy can begin to fire up properly.</div>
</div>
<div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Confidence up for 8th consecutive week: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Melbourne markets have held up better than most against the forces of Covid-19. The number of growth markets has dropped but it remains at solid levels – and prices have continued to perform well, in defiance of predictions (by the usual suspects) of a collapse.
The latest quarterly survey of sales activity by Hotspotting has found fewer growth suburbs than the previous survey, but still better than all other quarters since the Melbourne market peak in 2017.
This tells us that the Melbourne market has dropped in terms of sales activity, thanks to the restrictions imposed for the coronavirus, but remained stronger than during the post-boom downturn phase that extended throughout 2018 and early 2019.
Melbourne has done particularly well with price performance – with houses coming back strongly in the most recent quarter, but with apartments doing better than houses in annual terms.
In the past 12 months, two-thirds of Melbourne suburbs with apartment markets recorded growth in their median unit prices – and most of those growth suburbs increased their median prices by more than 5%.
House markets were less positive in annual terms, with only one-third recording price growth over the past months.
But the situation with house prices is starkly different when looking at the most recent data: 88% of Melbourne suburbs recorded growth in their median house prices in the most recent quarter.
This reflects the overall trend in the market. In the first half of 2019, Melbourne prices generally were falling, following the end of the previous boom and impacted also by the lead-up to the Federal Election.
Markets started to recover in the second half of 2019 and the early months of 2020 – so that most suburbs were recording price growth in their housing markets, but two-thirds still remained below the levels of 12 months earlier.
The data suggests Melbourne markets have been resilient price-wise in the Covid-19 period, despite the fall in sales activity which is reflected in our Winter 2020 survey of sales volumes.
In the circumstances, a result of 32 suburbs with growing sales activity is a solid performance and is better than all the quarterly surveys of 2018 and 2019.
The Mornington Peninsula has been the standout performer in our Winter 2020 survey: seven suburbs have continued to deliver growth in sales activity. Growth suburbs include Blairgowrie, Hastings, McCrae, Rye, Safety Beach, Sorrento and Tootgarook.
Quarterly sales in Safety Beach have been 33 46 45 47 54 and 64 over the past 18 months and the median house has risen 3% in the latest quarter while the median unit price is up 25% over the past 12 months.
In Hastings, quarterly sales have been 43 49 67 69 and 73 – and the median house price has increased 4.6% in the most recent quarter.
The next best LGA in terms of the number of suburbs with growing sales activity is the upmarket Glen Eira LGA, with three growth suburbs and two consistency markets. The growth suburbs are Carnegie, Caulfield North and Ormond.
There are seven municipalities with two growth suburbs each, including the Moreland LGA where both Brunswick East (63 79 80 83 and 86) and Brunswick West (52 60 63 76 and 83) are growth markets.
The Brunswick West unit market has been particularly strong, with notable growth in its median price both for the most recent quarter and over the past 12 months (up 18%).
This Winter 2020 survey has identified 11 suburbs as declining markets – a surprisingly small number given the Covid-19 circumstances – and three danger markets.
The locations we have ranked as danger markets are the Melbourne CBD, Southbank and Docklands, all inner-city apartments markets where sales activity has dropped markedly at a time when vacancy rates have spiked because of the Covid-19 impacts.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Melbourne market holding up better than most during Covid-19: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
Australia Bureau of Statistics data has confirmed the massive economic hit from the COVID-19 pandemic, with total hours worked across the economy officially falling 9% between early March and early April 2020.
Our analysis, using data from the quarterly <a href="https://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/research/publications/hardship-distress-and-resilience-initial-impacts-covid-19-australia" target="_blank">ANUpoll</a>, suggests the self-employed have been hit harder, with average weekly hours dropping by almost a third between February and April 2020. More than eight out of 10 self-employed Australians say their profits have taken a significant hit.
Decline in hours worked for the self employed
The ANUpoll is an important economic and social barometer in Australia because it is a longitudinal survey – polling the same group of people multiple times throughout the year. This enables a more accurate snapshot of how individuals are being affected.
The <a href="https://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/research/surveys/anupoll" target="_blank">data we are releasing today</a> was collected from 3,155 Australians between April 14 and April 27.
It shows the 32% drop in hours worked by the self-employed (from 35.2 to 23.8 hours) was about double that of all employees, whose hours declined by 16% (from 35.5 to 29.7 hours).
The following infographic illustrates the degree of decline for all the self-employed in the poll (about 240 people). The blue dots above the red line show those working more hours in April; those below the line show those working less. Note the number at or near zero.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335284/original/file-20200515-138620-1no37fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335284/original/file-20200515-138620-1no37fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
 Comparing weekly hours worked by the self-employed in February to April 2020. ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Author provided
Almost a third said their business would be unviable if financial trends continued for two months. If trends persisted for six months, 40% doubted they could survive.
The impact on savings and wellbeing
The proportion of self-employed saying they were finding it difficult or very difficult to survive on their current income increased from 29% to 36%.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335327/original/file-20200515-138654-8u4t3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335327/original/file-20200515-138654-8u4t3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
 Proportion of people finding it difficult or very difficult on their current income, by employment type. ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods
This contrasts with an aggregate improvement among employees, most likely due to higher payments for those on lower incomes, such as the A$750 given to social security recipients.
21% of self-employed respondents said they had accessed retirement savings or superannuation early, compared with 7% of employees.
Among those thinking their business was unviable, 69% reported feeling anxious and worried, compared with 59% of those thinking their business was viable. Life satisfaction was also lower (5.6 out 10 compared to 7.0).
What does this mean for the self-employed in 2020?
Current policies includes a large amount of targeted assistance for the self-employed. Without that assistance, the outcomes summarised above would be far worse.
As physical distancing restrictions are eased, it will be important to continue to monitor how the self-employed are faring to ensure the level of government support is sufficient and well-targeted.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138718/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/matthew-gray-229834" target="_blank">Matthew Gray</a>, Director, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank">Australian National University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nicholas-biddle-10171" target="_blank">Nicholas Biddle</a>, Professor of Economics and Public Policy, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank">Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/self-employed-australians-hours-have-fallen-32-since-coronavirus-hit-double-the-impact-on-all-employees-138718" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Self-employed Australians’ hours have fallen 32% since coronavirus hit double the average

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GUEST OBSERVATION
As the coronavirus pandemic spreads around the world, it’s a good time to understand how cleaning can help prevent the spread of disease and what you can do to cut the risk of infection in your home.
Coronavirus is mainly transmitted from person to person via <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/what-you-need-to-know-about-coronavirus-covid-19" target="_blank">tiny droplets</a> of saliva or other bodily fluids that float in the air after a cough or sneeze.
Contaminated objects and surfaces can also be important in the transmission of disease. It’s not entirely clear what role they play in transmitting the new coronavirus, but they play an important one for <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670120300463" target="_blank">related viruses</a> such as SARS and MERS.
However, it makes sense that something contaminated with the virus could pass it on, for example if a person touches it and then touches their nose, mouth or face.
So, if someone at risk of having the virus has been in your home, cleaning to reduce the amount of contamination on surfaces may help cut down your risk of further transmission of coronavirus. (It will also cut the risk of transmitting other pathogens.)
<h2>What’s the difference between cleaning and disinfection?</h2>
There’s a useful to distinction to make between <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/cleaning-disinfection?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcommunity%2Fhome%2Fcleaning-disinfection.html" target="_blank">cleaning</a> and <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/cleaning-disinfection?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcommunity%2Fhome%2Fcleaning-disinfection.html" target="_blank">disinfection</a>.
Cleaning means physically removing organic matter such as germs and dirt from surfaces. Disinfection means using chemicals to kill germs on surfaces.
Cleaning is very important, because organic matter may inhibit or reduce the disinfectant’s ability to kill germs.
<h2>How long will coronavirus survive in my house?</h2>
We are not exactly sure how long this coronavirus will survive on surfaces. If it is similar to other coronaviruses, it could survive a few hours – potentially <a href="https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext" target="_blank">up to several days</a>. How long it survives could depend on temperature, humidity and what the surface is made of.
<h2>What could be contaminated in my house?</h2>
It’s hard to say exactly. When someone coughs or sneezes, especially if they don’t cover their mouth, it is likely surfaces close to them will be contaminated.
Hands are often responsible for transferring pathogens from one place to another, so items that people often touch are at greatest risk of being contaminated.
Frequently touched items may include TV remotes, fridge doors, kitchen cupboards, kitchen surfaces, taps and door handles. And of course, there are devices such as phones and iPads – but these may not be shared or touched by others frequently.
<h2>What should I use to clean and how?</h2>
The coronavirus is a delicate structure and it is vulnerable in the environment. Both heat and detergents, including soap, can stop it functioning.
<h3>Contaminated surfaces</h3>
If a surface becomes contaminated or you think it could be, cleaning it with a common household disinfectant will kill the virus. Remember to wash your hands after cleaning (or use an alcohol-based hand sanitiser) and avoid touching your eyes, mouth or nose.
There are many options for what to use to clean, including paper towels, cloths or disposable wipes.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321221/original/file-20200318-37387-184yl1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
The S-shaped pattern for cleaning a surface without re-contaminating parts of it. Brett Mitchell, Author provided
How you clean is important. You don’t want to “recontaminate” surfaces while cleaning. Working from one side of a surface to the other helps with this, using an <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670118307205" target="_blank">“S” shape to clean</a>.
If you are reusing a cloth, remember to wash it afterwards and let it dry. Laundering cloths in the washing machine with normal washing liquid is also likely to kill the virus, particularly on a hot wash.
<h3>Dishes and cutlery</h3>
Washing with hot water and detergent is fine for dishes and cutlery. A dishwasher is even better, because it can use hotter water than your hands will tolerate.
<h3>Clothing and linen</h3>
Use the warmest setting possible to wash contaminated laundry and make sure you allow it to dry completely. You may not want to ruin clothing or other materials, so always look at the manufacturer’s instructions.
Laundry from someone who is sick can be washed with other people’s items. If you are handling contaminated items such as towel or sheets, avoid shaking them before washing, to reduce the risk of contaminating other surfaces.
And remember to wash your hands immediately after touching any contaminated laundry.
<h2>Prevention is best</h2>
Remember that surfaces play a role in transmitting pathogens, so preventing them from becoming contaminated in the first place is as important as cleaning. There are some things you can do to reduce the amount of contamination of surfaces in your house:
– cover your cough and sneezes, ideally with a tissue but otherwise into your elbow, and wash your hands immediately
– wash your hands often, especially after going to the bathroom and before eating.
<h2>What do I do if someone in my home is sick?</h2>
It may be wise to think about which room in your home could be used to care for a sick member of your family. If possible, the ideal room is one that that is separate from other parts of your home and has a separate bathroom.
Cleaning this room when someone is sick also requires some thought. Further advice on caring for someone with coronavirus at home is available from the <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/03/coronavirus-covid-19-information-about-home-isolation-when-unwell-suspected-or-confirmed-cases.pdf" target="_blank">Department of Health</a>.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133912/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brett-mitchell-398392" target="_blank">Brett Mitchell</a>, Professor of Nursing, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-newcastle-1060" target="_blank">University of Newcastle</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-clean-your-house-to-prevent-the-spread-of-coronavirus-and-other-infections-133912" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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How to clean your house to prevent the spread of coronavirus

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GUEST OBSERVATION 
Our analysis shows an economic downturn as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic will dramatically increase rental stress for people with insecure or casual work. If the downturn persists this will place people in precarious jobs at higher risk of homelessness.
The scenario we explored is the effect of loss of casual work on people on very low incomes. We identify this at-risk group as those aged between 19 and 30 years, living independently with disposable incomes of A$600 a week from casual work or a combination of casual work and benefits.
They typically work in cafes, restaurants, catering, events, fast food and retail. These are the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-06/this-is-why-casual-workers-could-be-hardest-hit-by-coronavirus/12027382" target="_blank">jobs most immediately impacted by an economic slowdown</a>. It is estimated <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-25/australia-sees-increase-in-casual-workers-ai-job-threats/11043772" target="_blank">one in four Australian workers is casual</a>, although not all are on low incomes.
The infographic below illustrates the extreme rental stress a slowdown will cause the low-income casual workers. We have calculated average rent across the broader Melbourne and Sydney metropolitan areas. The infographic shows the impact on rental stress of losing up to A$300 per week of disposable income. The percentages represent the amount of income taken up by rent, with red indicating the most extreme rental stress.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321155/original/file-20200317-60932-19pvj8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321155/original/file-20200317-60932-19pvj8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Source: REIA median rental data (December, 2019), A Guide to Australian Government Payments, authors' calculations
For example, the top row shows a casual worker in Sydney sharing a two-bedroom flat earning A$604 a week had A$344 disposable income after rent. The final row shows an individual in Sydney with A$326 weekly income after losing work income. Their rent then takes up 80% of their income, leaving them with A$66 a week to live on after rent.
The potential impact of the downturn on the disposable income of people with very low incomes means they will be in extreme rental stress unless they have savings.
<h2>So do they have savings?</h2>
The federal government has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/australian-government-warned-not-to-drag-its-feet-on-help-for-casual-workers-in-coronavirus-crisis" target="_blank">suggested</a> casual workers have savings to tide them over. Our analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics data suggests 38.9% of those earning A$600 or less per week have less than A$600 in savings to get them through. Over a quarter of this group are already in debt.
Another 26.6% of low-income casual workers have a month or less for things to get back to normal.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320900/original/file-20200316-27643-y5y5ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Average savings of people earning A$600 a week. Source: Income and Housing, Australia, 2017-18 (Australian Bureau of Statistics), Authors' calculations
These savings will be used up rapidly when average rent in a share house is A$133-220 per week in Melbourne and A$165-260 in Sydney. These rents include outer metropolitan areas, so rental stress in the inner cities will be worse, as our <a href="https://theconversation.com/city-share-house-rents-eat-up-most-of-newstart-leaving-less-than-100-a-week-to-live-on-123772" target="_blank">previous analysis</a> showed.
The downturn will affect a large number of people already on benefits because their income is partly from benefits and partly from earnings. According to <a href="https://data.gov.au/dataset/ds-dga-cff2ae8a-55e4-47db-a66d-e177fe0ac6a0/distribution/dist-dga-1fb71211-4e8a-4bf2-b659-148cd4d6972d/details?q=" target="_blank">data from the Department of Social Services</a>, 41% of Youth Allowance recipients, 28% of NewStart recipients and 36% of Parenting Payment single recipients are working and therefore receive part-rate allowances.
<h2>Will the first economic stimulus package help?</h2>
For people already receiving benefits the one-off <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/coronavirus/households" target="_blank">A$750 stimulus payment</a> will help to tide them over for 3-4 weeks’ rent. But to date casual workers have not been included in that stimulus payment (unless they receive <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/family-tax-benefit" target="_blank">Family Tax Benefit</a>).
People who lose their casual work will be able to get the new <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/jobseeker-payment" target="_blank">JobSeeker payment</a> from March 20. It’s the same as the <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/newstart-allowance/how-much-you-can-get" target="_blank">NewStart rate</a> – A$326 per week (including average rent assistance) – so it is clear they will be in immediate rental stress.
It’s worth noting this rental crisis is compounded because NewStart has not kept pace with rental increases over the last 25 years. NewStart has been increased by CPI only. The chart below shows how wide the gap between Melbourne rent price increases and CPI has become.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320901/original/file-20200316-27648-dca69x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Median increase in Melbourne rents and CPI, June 1999 – December 2019. Source: Rental Report, Department of Health &amp; Human Services (Dec 2019), Consumer Price Index (ABS), Authors' calculations
<h2>So what needs to be done?</h2>
The loss of income for casual workers will result in extreme rental stress for people who were already on low incomes. This issue demands urgent attention to prevent a homelessness epidemic. Agencies like the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/calls-for-housing-eviction-bans-during-coronavirus-outbreak/12060484?fbclid=IwAR0ND56d2GClAg-JNwdtQm6m59rcurdNjBV_M4kl9DbXKgFUDe-PB1q-Y1U" target="_blank">Council for Homeless Persons</a> are already calling for an immediate moratorium on evictions.
Landlords have a responsibility here as well since they benefit from continuity of rentals and the contribution of government policy to their wealth and assets. For example, low-income rents are paid out of a combination of regular earnings, benefit payments and rent assistance. These will now be supplemented because people on low incomes are likely to use the stimulus package to keep up.
The challenge for the government is to provide support to people on very low incomes that will see them through the entire COVID-19 crisis. One solution would be to immediately increase the JobSeeker payment to help people on low incomes ride out the downturn in casual work. Another solution would be to provide replacement income for casual workers affected by the downturn.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133782/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/simone-casey-130516" target="_blank">Simone Casey</a>, Research Associate, Future Social Service Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063" target="_blank">RMIT University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liss-ralston-295934" target="_blank">Liss Ralston</a>, Urban Statistician, Centre for Urban Transitions, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/swinburne-university-of-technology-767" target="_blank">Swinburne University of Technology</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-puts-casual-workers-at-risk-of-homelessness-unless-they-get-more-support-133782" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Coronavirus puts casual workers at risk of homelessness unless they get more support

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GUEST OBSERVER
Wesfarmers’ decision to close or rebrand up to 167 of its 284 Target and Target Country stores should not come as too much of a surprise.
The once popular store has been ailing for years, outmanoeuvred by its successful and popular <a href="https://www.wesfarmers.com.au/our-businesses/kmart-group" target="_blank">sister business</a>, Kmart.
Up to 75 Target and Target Country stores will be closed, with the balance being converted to Kmart stores.
Its decline is due to a combination of poor market positioning, confusing product strategies, a declining middle class consumer market and too much similarity with Kmart. The impacts of COVID-19 are just the icing on the cake.
<h2>Spiralling sales and profit</h2>
Wesfarmers acquired both retail chains when it took over the Coles Group in 2007. At the time Target looked the stronger business, and Wesfarmers <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-wesfarmers-coles/wesfarmers-plans-coles-investment-restructuring-idUSSYD11087920070816?sp=true" target="_blank">considered selling all or part of Kmart</a>, or converting stores to the Target brand.
Just as well it decided to invest in Kmart instead.
Since 2012, Target’s profits and sales have deteriorated with Target realising its first <a href="https://www.wesfarmers.com.au/docs/default-source/reports/2016-annual-report.pdf?sfvrsn=4" target="_blank">loss of A$195 million in 2016</a>.
How Target has performed since then has been obscured by Wesfarmers combining the business into a <a href="https://www.wesfarmers.com.au/docs/default-source/asx-announcements/2018-annual-report.pdf?sfvrsn=0" target="_blank">Department Stores Division</a> including Kmart and Kmart Tyre and Auto Service. Target’s results were thus no longer reported separately.
But Wesfarmers’ <a href="https://www.wesfarmers.com.au/docs/default-source/asx-announcements/2019-annual-report.pdf?sfvrsn=0" target="_blank">2019 annual report</a> noted its trading performance highlighted “the need for ongoing repositioning to further elevate quality and style, expand its digital capabilities, and differentiate the business from Kmart and other competitors”.
<h2>High couture and cheap kettles</h2>
One way Target confused shoppers was to offer collaborations with high-end fashion designers like Missoni, Stella McCartney, Dion Lee and <a href="https://insideretail.com.au/news/targets-next-designer-partnership-revealed-201511" target="_blank">Dannii Minogue</a>, alongside $2 kids’ tops and <a href="http://www.target-catalogue.com/target-catalogue-february-2015-back-to-school/" target="_blank">cheap kitchenware</a>.
The move frustrated customers unable to secure designer pieces and disenfranchised “value-seeking” customers. Many voted with their wallets, moving to Kmart.
Wesfarmers’ <a href="https://insideretail.com.au/news/wesfarmers-to-reposition-target-cuts-head-office-roles-201908" target="_blank">plans to differentiate Target</a> from Kmart involved focusing on higher quality apparel, soft homewares and toys to compete against more specialty and middle market offerings.
But the middle market is a challenging sector. It is now dominated by “fast fashion” players offering on-trend clothing and home furnishing. The pressures have led to the collapse of other middle market chains.
Wesfarmers was very aware of the risks associated with this strategy.
Its 2017 <a href="https://www.wesfarmers.com.au/docs/default-source/default-document-library/2017-annual-report.pdf?sfvrsn=0" target="_blank">annual report</a> stated:
“Target’s strategy has been reset and the business is now focused on progressing changes to the operating model to better position the business to grow earnings into the future. This journey will be undertaken in an increasingly competitive apparel and general merchandise environment”.
<h2>Death of department stores</h2>
The attempted shift in focus to a middle market department store only created more problems.
Department stores worldwide have faced challenging times in recent years. The past year alone has seen department store icons including Barney’s, Debenhams and JCPenney <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurendebter/2020/05/14/jcpenney-bankruptcy-protection-coronavirus/#5c84870521c8" target="_blank">file for bankruptcy or close for good</a>. Closer to home, Harris Scarfe <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/fallen-icon-the-undoing-of-harris-scarfe-20200109-p53q7j" target="_blank">went into receivership</a> in December 2019, while Myer and David Jones <a href="https://10daily.com.au/news/australia/a190829aclgz/david-jones-to-shrink-stores-as-profits-fall-20190830" target="_blank">have looked to consolidate stores</a>.
Department stores face many challenges from competition and changing consumer behaviour. However, a broader challenge is a <a href="https://www.oecd.org/social/under-pressure-the-squeezed-middle-class-689afed1-en.htm" target="_blank">declining middle class</a> that has been the cornerstone of the sector’s customer base.
Target’s strategy to move further into the middle market was always doomed for limited success.
<h2>Pandemic impacts</h2>
Adding to department store woes is the COVID-19 pandemic.
Already reeling from a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-06/retail-sales-december/11937224" target="_blank">weak Christmas period</a> and the effects of the bushfires, retailers were hoping for a return to spending. Instead, they have been faced with store closures and possibly permanent shifts in consumer behaviour.
While some retailers have simply tried to survive the lockdowns, others are <a href="https://insideretail.com.au/news/ive-spoken-to-dozens-of-retail-execs-in-the-last-two-weeks-heres-what-i-learned-202004" target="_blank">re-evaluating their future</a>. For Wesfarmers, this means shifting focus from the struggling Target to the more popular and profitable Kmart.
But though the pandemic has undoubtedly had an unprecedented and substantial impact on the retail industry, in some cases it only accelerating outcomes already on the cards.
So Target is unlikely to be the last retailer to undergo radical surgery. Retailers like the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/hype-dc-platypus-owner-to-shut-stores-after-big-leap-in-online-sales-20200427-p54ni0" target="_blank">Accent Group</a> and <a href="https://insideretail.com.au/news/pas-group-may-shutter-underperforming-stores-in-restructure-202004" target="_blank">PAS Group</a> have flagged similar plans.
Expect further announcements as retailers evaluate how to survive.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139205/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jason-pallant-8729" target="_blank">Jason Pallant</a>, Lecturer of Marketing, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/swinburne-university-of-technology-767" target="_blank">Swinburne University of Technology</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gary-mortimer-1322" target="_blank">Gary Mortimer</a>, Professor of Marketing and Consumer Behaviour, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/queensland-university-of-technology-847" target="_blank">Queensland University of Technology</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-blame-covid-19-targets-decline-is-part-of-a-deeper-trend-139205" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Don’t blame COVID-19: Target’s decline is part of a deeper trend

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GUEST OBSERVATION
It’s sad times for public universities as they fight for their survival. Most are reeling from a severe financial hit due to the loss of international students.
Universities are <a href="https://www.universitiesaustralia.edu.au/media-item/investment-in-university-research-an-investment-in-covid-19-recovery" target="_blank">estimated to lose</a> around A$3-4.6 billion in revenue from international student fees in 2020 alone, and more in 2021.
The government has locked universities out of JobKeeper – its COVID-19 wage subsidy scheme – despite the fact the sector is <a href="https://www.universitiesaustralia.edu.au/media-item/investment-in-university-research-an-investment-in-covid-19-recovery" target="_blank">projected to lose around 21,000 jobs</a>, of which 7,000 are estimated to be research-related.
International onshore <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://docs.education.gov.au/node/53363" target="_blank">student revenue</a> was, as a share of all universities’ revenue, 26.2% on average in 2018, just shy of A$9 billion. For some universities, the dependency on international students is even greater, at around 30-40%.
Many in the government criticise universities for relying so heavily on international students for revenue. For instance, <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansards/e82a8a20-f72d-41d5-90fb-806930fffbba/&amp;sid=0178" target="_blank">Senator James Paterson recently</a> told the Senate:
Over the last few decades our universities have bet big on the international-student dollar. Their institutions have boomed from what has been a very lucrative business, but they have become badly overexposed […] Universities argue they have pursued this market by necessity. They argue insufficient government funding pushed them down this path. It’s a convenient story that attempts to absolve universities of responsibility for the decisions they have made, and it is a false one.
But such views are false. And they ignore the history of international students from Asia studying in our universities.
<h2>A history of international education</h2>
In 1923, Sydney University accepted its first Chinese overseas student, N.Y. Shah from Wuhan, who was studying to become a teacher back in China.
From the 1950s, children of Chinese diaspora parents from countries such as Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong began to arrive in Australia to study.
This rarely mentioned cohort of private overseas students studied alongside students supported by the well-known Colombo Plan – an intergovernmental effort to strengthen economic and social development of member countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
In fact, so prominent was the Colombo Plan’s efforts in bringing students to study in Australia, it is still incorrectly believed to be the first major source of overseas students.
Historian <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10314610708601233" target="_blank">Lyndon Megarrity estimates</a> the Colombo Plan brought less than one-fifth of overseas students to Australia in the 1950s and 1960s. The vast majority came as private overseas students.
They went to Australian schools, sat for university matriculation and for those who passed, proceeded to university either funded by the generous Commonwealth scholarship scheme or by paying substantially subsidised university fees, just like Australian citizens.
By 1966, archival research shows private overseas students constituted 8.9% of full-time university enrolments and their numbers were growing. Immigration restrictions were also loosened to mean citizenship was available to private overseas students who had lived in Australia for at least five years.
Most met the conditions after attending two years of high school and the three year minimum for a degree.
While some stayed, of those I interviewed for a UNSW survey of overseas students who studied at the university in the 1950s and 1960s, it seems most returned to their home countries where an Australian university degree promised excellent career prospects.
There was obviously something about Australian education and society that appealed to our Asian neighbours, and pulled them to Australia where they lived for five years and more.
<h2>An unofficial government policy</h2>
In 1990 the Australian government introduced full fees for all international students. John Dawkins, the then Minister for Employment, Education and Training, saw an opportunity to establish university education as an export industry.
The year 1990 is significant because the Australian government was in the process of implementing the Dawkins reforms which reorganised the once diversified public higher education sector into a single national system.
The aim of the Dawkins reforms was to encourage more Australian school leavers to attend university and, on graduation, become part of a highly-skilled and educated national workforce.
To help fund this vastly expanded system and rein in costs, the government introduced HECS. Students could postpone subsidised and interest-free fees until their salary reached a certain level when they would repay the loan through the taxation system.
International student fees at this stage were not a significant source of university income. But they became so from the early 2000s after a decade of reduced government funding and a significant expansion of local student numbers.
Since government funding no longer covered the full costs of expensive research or the strong growth in domestic students, universities had to find funds from elsewhere.
It can be said that international student fees have become an unofficial part of the funding policy of consecutive federal governments.
Government actions and inactions that led to such a reliance on international fee income have created a system that challenges a belief many of us hold dear – public universities should be able to draw on public funds for their operations.
Where in 1989 universities derived more than 80% of their operating costs from the public purse, now it is estimated to be less than 40% – a figure well below the OECD average for public investment in tertiary education.
<h2>Where to from here</h2>
Since the 2000s, the shortfall has been largely made up by international student fees which have enabled universities to punch above their weight. On a population parity basis we have <a href="https://www.dreducation.com/top-500-world-class-universities-rankings" target="_blank">more universities </a> in the world’s top 500 (by some metrics) than Canada, the United Kingdom and United States.
And 2018 figures show we have some of the highest participation rates of school leavers in the world, at least 30% higher than is the case in the United Kingdom. 
Our universities also contribute enormously to national research and development – international student fees help sustain this. The <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/8111.0" target="_blank">Australian Bureau of Statistics</a> confirmed this week more than half of the A$12 billion universities invest in research each year comes from a pool of funds that relies on international student fees.
International students, however, should not simply be measured by the fees they pay. Evidence shows while here, students contribute to the well-being of Australians by fuelling economic growth and prosperity that provides jobs for Australians.
University doctoral students and postdoctoral fellows are a large component of Australia’s research and development workforce. International students make up <a href="https://www.science.org.au/covid19/research-workforce" target="_blank">37% of this vital group</a>, working on important projects like breeding drought resilient crops, developing cures for diseases like COVID-19, and world-leading efficient solar and plastic recycling technology.
Some international students remain in Australia as our largest single source of skilled migrants. Others return to their home country to become leaders in business, politics and cultural industries with a respect and appreciation of Australian culture. We should nurture this good will, not trash it.
This essay is based on an episode of the University of Technology Sydney podcast series “<a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/partners-and-community/initiatives/impact-studios/projects/new-social-contract-podcast" target="_blank">The New Social Contract</a>”. The audio series examines how the relationship between universities, the state and the public might be reshaped as we live through this global pandemic.
The next article linked to the podcast will look at universities and the climate.
<a href="https://player.whooshkaa.com/episode?id=649529" target="_blank">Context of the Crisis</a> was made by <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/partners-and-community/initiatives/impact-studios/about-us" target="_blank">Impact Studios</a> at the University of Technology, Sydney - an audio production house combining academic research and audio storytelling.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138796/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/julia-horne-16152" target="_blank">Julia Horne</a>, University Historian and Principal Research Fellow, History, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841" target="_blank">University of Sydney</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-universities-came-to-rely-on-international-students-138796" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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How universities came to rely on international students 

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The Minister for Industrial Relations Christian Porter has reportedly intervened to ensure the workplace safety watchdog dumped strict rules on social distancing in lifts.
Porter feared long and costly bottlenecks would occur in office towers as the country goes back to work.
<source media="(min-width: 1180px)" data-pb-im-config='{"aspectRatio":1,"type":"square1x1","width":220,"urls":["https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.229%2C$multiply_0.582%2C$ratio_1%2C$width_378%2C$x_62%2C$y_8/t_crop_custom/e_sharpen:25%2Cq_85%2Cf_auto/0a614b89988117528dbf5ca524b204acd6a99054"," https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.229%2C$multiply_1.164%2C$ratio_1%2C$width_378%2C$x_62%2C$y_8/t_crop_custom/e_sharpen:25%2Cq_42%2Cf_auto/0a614b89988117528dbf5ca524b204acd6a99054 2x"]}' srcset="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.229%2C$multiply_0.582%2C$ratio_1%2C$width_378%2C$x_62%2C$y_8/t_crop_custom/e_sharpen:25%2Cq_85%2Cf_auto/0a614b89988117528dbf5ca524b204acd6a99054, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.229%2C$multiply_1.164%2C$ratio_1%2C$width_378%2C$x_62%2C$y_8/t_crop_custom/e_sharpen:25%2Cq_42%2Cf_auto/0a614b89988117528dbf5ca524b204acd6a99054 2x"></source>
It is claimed the revised Safe Work Australia guidelines were released were safe, but practical.
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Porter said he had raised the issue with the agency, but it was a matter for Safe Work to rule on, Nine Entertainment's AFR reported.
"Ultimately it is a matter for Safe Work Australia to determine the appropriate guidance to provide to industry. Neither the government, nor I as minister, can change that guidance."
<div class="_1bH_l" data-experiment-target="relatedStory">"I’m advised that the chief health officers from all states and territories reported that they were comfortable with the updated advice."</div>
The agency reversed its guidelines on Wednesday.
Workers in lifts should still maintain their distance and avoid touching other people in lifts, a Safe Work Australia spokeswoman said on Thursday.
"If a lift is full based on the advised passenger limits, workers should wait for the next lift," she said.
"If they need to cough or sneeze during a lift journey they must do so into their arm or a clean tissue. They should wash their hands, or where this is not possible, use appropriate hand sanitiser, after exiting the lift, particularly if they touched lift buttons, rails or doors, and not attend work if they are unwell."
It has been previously reported physical distancing rules could force workers in Australia Square Tower to wait as long as three hours to get up and down the landmark building at the start and end of the day, as the 1.5-metre requirement allows no more than two people in its lifts at the same time.
 
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Safe Work Australia dumps 1.5m social distancing for office lifts

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Sydney house prices could fall by as much as 15 per cent next year, while Melbourne could see a 17 per cent drop, according to an HSBC analysis.
Australian house prices could tumble 12 per cent in 2021, as a U-shaped recovery and COVID-19-related policies take their toll, Paul Bloxham, chief economist at HSBC, suggests.
However this year, the gains already accumulated before the pandemic will offset the decline in prices expected in the second half.
Nationally, prices could end 6 per cent higher, with Sydney up as much as 9 per cent and Melbourne as much as 7 per cent higher.
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Bloxham predicts stalled migration and rising unemployment were likely to drive housing oversupply.
However Bloxham said low interest rates would work to make the housing market attractive to borrowers.
<div>The overall impact, Mr Bloxham said, was that national housing prices will fall between 2 per cent and 12 per cent in the 2021 financial year.</div>
The drop could even be deeper if the economic recovery was an “L” or “W” shape.
</div>
Next year Sydney prices could fall between 5 per cent to 15 per cent, with Melbourne dropping by 7 per cent to 17 per cent.
The analysis was by HSBC's chief economist, Paul Bloxham, and colleague Daniel Smith.
"Forecasting housing prices is difficult at the best of times, but at the moment it is particularly challenging," they wrote.
<div data-testid="ad-wrapper">
<div id="adspot-320x360_320x120_320x50_300x250_300x50-pos2-mobile"> "We expect larger declines in housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne than in Australia's other cities, given greater reliance in these cities on migration and foreign students, which have stalled as a result of border closures."</div>
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Sydney house prices could fall by 15 per cent, and Melbourne 17 per cent drop next year: HSBC

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As Australia begins to relax its COVID-19 restrictions there is understandable debate about how quickly that should proceed, and whether lockdowns even made sense in Australia in the first place.
The sceptics arguing for more rapid relaxation of containment measures point to the economic costs of lockdowns and appeal to the cold calculus of <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cost-benefitanalysis.asp" target="_blank">cost-benefit analysis</a> to conclude that the lives saved by lockdowns don’t justify the economic costs incurred to do so.
Their numbers don’t stack up.
To be able to weigh the value of a life against the economic costs of forgone output from lost jobs and business closures, requires placing a dollar value on one person’s life. This number is called the value of a statistical life.
In Australia, the Government generally uses a value of A$<a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/Value_of_Statistical_Life_guidance_note.pdf" target="_blank">4.9 million</a>. The United States uses a value of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-value-of-life/" target="_blank">US$10 million</a>.
What are the benefits of the shutdown? This is the value of lives saved plus any indirect economic or health benefits. Lives saved are those excess lives that would be lost if government relied on a strategy that allowed enough people to get infected to result in so-called <a href="https://www.webmd.com/lung/what-is-herd-immunity#1" target="_blank">herd immunity</a>.
How many extra lives would be lost under this second strategy?
To answer this, we need assumptions about the virus.
<h2>The lives lost if we let it rip</h2>
The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/europe/coronavirus-R0-explainer?referringSource=articleShare" target="_blank">initial reproduction rate</a> of the virus, R0, was thought to be about 2.5. This means that every 2 people infected were likely to infect another 5; producing an average infection rate per person of 2.5.
Herd immunity for COVID-19 is estimated to require roughly 60% of the population be infected before the <a href="https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve" target="_blank">curve begins to flatten</a> and the peak infections fall.
This happens when the reproduction rate, R0, falls below one. Because of subsequent new infections, the total number infected over the course of the pandemic is closer to 90%.
Given a population of 25 million people and assuming a fatality rate of 1%, this would produce 225,000 deaths.
An assumption of a 1% fatality rate is low from the perspective of those making decisions at the onset of the pandemic, at a time when crucial and reliable data were missing.
<h2>Those lives are valued at $1.1 trillion</h2>
Converting those fatalities to dollars using the Australian value of a statistical life of A$4.9 million per life yields a cost of A$1.1 trillion.
In rough terms, that’s the amount we have gained by shutting down the economy, provided deaths do not skyrocket when lockdown measures are relaxed and borders re-open.
It is about three fifths of one year’s gross domestic product, which is about A$1.9 trillion.
What are the costs of the shutdown?
These are the direct economic costs from reduced economic activity plus the indirect social, medical, and economic costs, all measured in terms of national income.
A starting point is to take the lost income that occurs from the recession that has probably already begun.
<h2>What will the shutdown cost?</h2>
Let’s assume that the downturn results in a 10% drop in gross domestic product over 2020 and 2021 – about $180 billion – consistent with IMF forecasts of a fall in GDP of 6.7% in 2020 and a sharp rebound of 6.1% growth in 2021, and comparable to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s forecasts in the latest <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2020/may/" target="_blank">Statement on Monetary Policy</a>.
Comparing this cost from shutting down – about $180 billion – to the benefit of $1,103 billion – makes the case for shutdown clear.
But this calculation grossly overestimates the costs of the shutdown.
The recession is a consequence of both the shutdown and the pandemic.
We need to attribute costs to each.
Most of the economic costs of the recession are likely to be due to the pandemic itself rather the shutdown.
<h2>Many costs would have been borne anyway</h2>
Even before the shutdown, economic activity was in decline.
Both in Australia and internationally air travel, restaurant bookings and a range of other activities had fallen sharply.
They were the result of a “private shutdown” that commenced before the mandated government shutdown.
Even in a country such as Sweden, where a shutdown has not been mandatory, there has been a more than 75% reduction in movement in central Stockholm and a more than 90% reduction in travel to some domestic holiday destinations.
To be generous, let’s assume the costs attributable to the government-mandated part of the shutdown are half of the total costs, making their cost A$90 billion.
In reality, they are likely to be less, one important study suggests <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.04630.pdf" target="_blank">much less</a>.
It is hard to imagine a much bigger private shutdown not taking place had the government decided to simply let the disease rip until its spread was slowed by herd immunity.
<h2>Support is not a cost</h2>
It is also important to note that the government’s spending of A$214 billion to support the economy during the shutdown is a transfer of resources from one part of society to another rather than a cost.
It creates neither direct costs nor benefits for society as a whole, other than the economic distortions coming from raising the revenue to service the spending.
With long-term government bond rates near 1% (less than inflation), the total cost of distortions is likely to be tiny.
Of course, this discussion simplifies what are incredibly complex social, health and economic questions. There are clearly further costs, from both relaxing restrictions and keeping them in place.
<h2>Other costs are not that big</h2>
These costs are worthy of serious study and should rightly be part of a comprehensive public policy discussion. But looked at through the lens of a cost-benefit analysis these combined effects are likely to be small relative to the value of preventing mass death.
Among them are the incidence of mental health problems and domestic violence under lockdowns. They are important concerns that should be addressed by targeted and well-designed programs.
Weighing against that is evidence that economic crises are associated with <a href="https://voxeu.org/article/economic-crises-and-mortality" target="_blank">declines</a> in overall mortality rates. 
While suicides rise, total mortality, including deaths from heart attacks and workplace and traffic accidents, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/02/coronavirus-economy-reopen-deaths-balance-analysis-159248" target="_blank">falls</a>.
In the specific case of this pandemic there is <a href="https://psyarxiv.com/3kfmh" target="_blank">survey evidence</a> based on respondents from 58 countries suggesting that strong government responses to the pandemic have been reducing worry and depression.
Also, we have to acknowledge that recessions and educational disruption have health and economic costs that are unequally spread.
The shutdown disproportionately impacts more-disadvantaged people including short-term casual workers, migrant workers, those with disabilities and the homeless.
<h2>The most-disadvantaged suffer, either way</h2>
This skewing will also be present in the herd immunity option. As New York City makes clear, a rapid spread of the disease also disproportionately impacts disadvantaged communities. One can only speculate about the disease burden should some of our remote indigenous communities get exposed.
To this we should add further achievements of the shutdown:
<ul>
<li>
elimination of mental trauma and grief from losing our loved ones
</li>
<li>
avoiding the costs of possible longer-term implications of the disease, which we still know little about
</li>
<li>
avoiding a collapse in the capacity of the health system to deal with other emergencies through the sheer numbers of COVID-19 infected combined with staff shortages due to illness
</li>
</ul>
Those advocating cost-benefit analysis of this kind have to apply the principle systematically. It is difficult to see how the total of these sorts of considerations on each side of the ledger could compare to the benefit of lives saved. They will be an order of magnitude, if not two, smaller.
<h2>$90 billion, versus $1.1 trillion</h2>
In the cold calculus of cost-benefit analysis, a highly pessimistic view of the economic costs of Australia’s shutdown comes to around $90 billion.
It is a small price to pay compared to the statistical value of lives the shutdown should save, around A$1.1 trillion.
It produces a simple message. The shutdown wins.
The question we now face is how quickly to relax restrictions. Here, too, there are costs and benefits, and we need to be mindful of the economic cost of a second-wave outbreak, plus mortality costs of disease spread before effective treatments or vaccine become available.
And in all of this bean counting, we should remember that putting a price tag on human life is sometimes unavoidable – such as when a doctor with access to only one ventilator has to choose between two patients.
But we shouldn’t mistake necessity for desirability. We should seek to avoid needing to make such wrenching choices whenever possible.
Dr Jen Schaefer of the Royal Children’s Hospital Melbourne assisted with the preparation of this piece.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138303/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-preston-452859" target="_blank">Bruce Preston</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-costs-of-the-shutdown-are-overestimated-theyre-outweighed-by-its-1-trillion-benefit-138303" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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