<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> has lodged plans for a $750 million, three-tower mixed-use precinct that would complete the long-running redevelopment of Carlton's former Carlton United Breweries site.

The proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/185-195-queensberry-street-carlton-vic-3053">46-78 Bouverie Street and 185-195 Queensberry Street</a> spans a 6,468 sqm site, the last remaining undeveloped parcels within the former brewery's 2007 masterplan.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the development will comprise two purpose-built student accommodation towers and a third build-to-sell apartment tower above a shared commercial podium and basement.

Across the three towers, SP Setia is proposing 606 build-to-sell apartments and 1,499 student accommodation units containing 2,009 beds.

The apartments will sit in the tallest tower, which will rise nearly 200m and 55 storeys. It will become&nbsp;one of the more substantial new build-to-sell apartment projects at the northern edge of Melbourne's CBD.

The apartment mix is weighted toward smaller inner-city product, with 188 studios, 206 one-bedroom apartments, 192 two-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedroom apartments

<img alt="First look: SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8271bc87-1b0a-41b7-ac73-a425ee375261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/3_2.png?VersionId=G4lw23o90B1boX4k4dj7rdz2ZEajS9wy" />

Part of the precinct will be a large-scale&nbsp;3,684 sqm supermarket and a further 2,198 sqm of speciality retail, creating close to 5,900 sqm of new commercial space within the precinct.

But one of the biggest components of the proposal is what sits between the buildings.

Around 4,650 sqm, or roughly 72 per cent of the site, will be publicly accessible open space, incorporating plazas, pedestrian connections, landscaped laneways and retail spill-out areas.

The ground plane is intended to finally complete pedestrian connections envisaged when the CUB masterplan was first approved nearly two decades ago, stitching together Victoria Street, Queensberry Street, Bouverie Street and Swanston Street through the former brewery precinct.

Urbis said the development would "complete the CUB precinct", with the public realm providing important north-south and east-west connections through what is currently the final undeveloped portion of the masterplanned site.

SP Setia is also exploring a new linear park within the Bouverie Street road reserve, with the concept to be developed further with the City of Melbourne through the planning process.

The proposal is being pursued through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program under Clause 53.23 for significant residential development with affordable housing.

The planning report acknowledges the proposed heights exceed those contemplated under the original Comprehensive Development Plan and masterplan, but argues the built-form context has changed considerably over the past two decades.

Urbis said the three towers would instead create a stepped transition between Carlton and the Hoddle Grid, rising progressively from the 94.1-metre Tower One along the Queensberry Street edge to the 199.44-metre Tower Three closer to the established CBD-scale buildings to the south.

<img alt="SP Setia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e885a07a-592c-40fc-bf82-e6dbaf32da54" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.52.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7s_ErUkSKAdY1mAWp3GRZgMNCGtwhk5m" />

SP Setia plans to deliver the development across three stages.

Stage One would deliver the basement, podium and retail areas for the entire precinct alongside the first student tower. Tower Two would follow in Stage Two, before the 606-apartment Tower Three is delivered as the final stage.

If approved and delivered, the project would close out a redevelopment process that has been underway since the former brewery masterplan was approved in 2007, adding more than 2,600 student beds and apartments to a precinct already home to Swanston Central, the Barak Building, RMIT Design Hub and several large student accommodation developments.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct

Melbourne developer Lowe Living is seeking to add to its growing bayside apartment pipeline, filing plans for a boutique eight-residence development in tightly held Middle Park.

Lowe Living, which has built much of its development portfolio across Melbourne's affluent bayside and south-east suburbs, is behind the plans for the 730 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/123-125-erskine-street-middle-park-vic-3206">123-125 Erskine Street</a>, just off Armstrong Street and within the Armstrong Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre.

The developer is seeking approval for a five-storey residential building above two basement levels, with just eight large-format apartments and 18 car spaces.

“This is a deliberately very different proposition for us,"&nbsp;Tim Lowe, Co-Founder of Lowe Living, said.

"Eight residences is exceptionally boutique, but that's precisely what this site calls for.

“There is a strong community in Middle Park and the surrounding suburbs who have spent decades building a life here. They no longer want the maintenance of a large period home, but they aren't prepared to compromise on space, quality or location. We think there is a real opportunity to capture that hyper local market. A site like this rarely comes to market.”

<img alt="Lowe " data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="875fe572-0f14-4d90-9e11-55b28dd07731" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.42.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GDNQRv9BfpR9r1zkZ5UDyUM4ZvpIksut" />

The low-density proposal has been designed by Cera Stribley and is being progressed through the Victorian Government's Great Design Fast Track pathway, having already secured eligibility from the Minister for Planning.

The Office of the Victorian Government Architect supported its eligibility after finding the proposal demonstrated consistency with the program's seven design principles, while the project's financial feasibility has also been independently confirmed by Invest Victoria.

The project is targeting the downsizer market, with the planning documents describing the homes as larger-format residences and noting the two penthouses could otherwise have been configured as four separate apartments.

<img alt="Lowe 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="60ab0987-2da6-4175-adac-315dcf6053c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bOCPH0B2MFwlmaRW.TTCF9TzyifgVoQI" />

The site has dual frontage to Erskine Street and Canterbury Place and currently comprises a collection of commercial buildings used as offices, including a former heritage bakehouse, a former stable, a later gabled addition and a central courtyard.

It sits within the Commercial 1 Zone and the Armstrong Street Commercial Precinct heritage overlay, with the existing property classified as a contributory heritage place.

Heritage has subsequently played a significant role in Cera Stribley's design.

The front section of the former bakehouse facing Erskine Street will be retained, including its return walls, street-facing hipped roof and chimneys, while the Erskine Street façade and part of the western return wall of the former stable will also be incorporated into the new development.

Levels four and five will be set back five metres from the retained stable façade, while bricks removed through demolition are proposed to be salvaged and reused within the new building where possible.

<img alt="Lowe 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e97927a9-a2de-4a0f-83b6-65451238abfa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VR44AChLrX9q1XPB9GvVQV.ALXXbe4gC" />

Rather than presenting as a single five-storey building to Erskine Street, Cera Stribley has broken the development into a series of distinct forms.

A three-storey infill element will sit between the retained bakehouse and stable façades, with the upper levels recessed behind the heritage fabric. Canterbury Place will similarly feature two three-storey podium forms, separated by a central pedestrian accessway, before the upper two levels step back from the street.

A pedestrian through-link will run through the centre of the project between Erskine Street and Canterbury Place, creating entrances from both sides of the site and introducing landscaping and communal areas through the ground plane.

Landscape architect Acre has designed planting across the ground level, private terraces and upper levels, including a feature canopy tree at level three and integrated planting and arbours across the level four terraces. Five existing Erskine Street trees are proposed to be retained.

Sustainability is also a significant component of the Great Design Fast Track application. The apartments are targeting an average eight-star NatHERS rating, with no residence below 6.5 stars, while the project has achieved a 75 per cent BESS score. Seven of the eight apartments are designed for cross-ventilation, with the remaining residence using mechanically assisted natural ventilation.

The plans also incorporate an 8kWp rooftop solar system, a 5,000-litre rainwater tank and infrastructure allowing future electric vehicle charging for every residence.

Lowe has a strong portfolio across Melbourne's blue-chip suburbs. They recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House by Lowe Living</a> in Camberwell, their first development in the Stonnington LGA.

Lowe Living unveils Middle Park apartment development

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

<a data-end="327" data-is-only-node="" data-start="250" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/norus-projects" rel="noopener" target="_new">Norus Developments</a> has lodged plans for a new apartment development in Clayton that would add further momentum to the suburb's emerging Green Street corridor.

Plans have been lodged for the consolidated site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1359-1365-centre-road-clayton-vic-3168">1359-1365 Centre Road</a>, where Norus is seeking approval for 218 apartments across a 12-storey apartment building designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/life-architecture-and-urban-design">Life Architecture</a>.

The proposal sits within the Clayton Major Activity Centre at the threshold of the planned Green Street corridor, a landscaped pedestrian connection intended to improve links through the precinct towards Clayton Railway Station.

The development would replace the site's existing collection of low-scale residential and commercial buildings with a single consolidated building, introducing significantly greater housing density to this part of Centre Road.

A retail tenancy is proposed at ground level to activate the Centre Road frontage, accompanied by transparent street interfaces and landscaping intended to create a more pedestrian-focused edge to the development.

<img alt="First look: Norus Developments plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a5a763a-d9e9-4253-af2f-88008de27ebf" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Clayton%20a.png?VersionId=S2WJJbat1XVkZwB9SnYtygirXgWHiklX" />

The building has been designed with stepped massing and upper-level setbacks to manage its transition towards surrounding residential properties. The planning report describes the approach as one that integrates the building into the landscape rather than treating landscaping as a secondary element.

"A strong landscape and public realm strategy underpins the proposal," Urbis states in the planning report.

"Public benefits include an affordable housing contribution, a new pocket park, generous landscaped setbacks, deep soil planting and integrated Water Sensitive Urban Design."

The report adds that these elements are intended to create "a permeable, pedestrian-focused ground plane that enhances walkability, supports urban cooling and reinforces the emerging Green Street character."

Biophilic and passive design principles extend through the residential levels, with planting, daylight, natural ventilation and views towards landscaped areas forming part of the amenity strategy.

Parking would be concentrated away from the public realm, with 145 car spaces proposed from the rear laneway rather than dominating the Centre Road frontage.

The proposal follows an extensive pre-application process with the City of Monash. Three formal meetings were held between the project team and Council from December 2025 to March 2026, with the scheme evolving through several concept iterations before the current design was lodged.

The project arrives as Clayton prepares for substantial change around its established activity centre and the wider Suburban Rail Loop precinct. Its position on Centre Road places the development within an existing concentration of shops, services and public transport, while the Green Street connection is intended to strengthen pedestrian access towards Clayton Railway Station.

First look: Norus plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> has officially commenced construction on Bronze on Chevron, celebrating the sod turning of its first-ever Gold Coast development and marking a significant milestone in the company's continued expansion across South East Queensland.&nbsp;

Following the successful delivery of premium residential developments throughout Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-chevron-island-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> represents Gardner Vaughan Group's entry into the Gold Coast market. Bronze will deliver 119 one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments above two ground-level retail tenancies.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367193]

The recent sod turning ceremony was attended by Deputy Mayor Mark Hammel, President of the Surfers Paradise Surf Life Saving Club, Cassandra Sedgman, project consultants, purchasers, project partners and invited guests to celebrate the commencement of construction.&nbsp;

Gardner Vaughan Group Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge said Bronze on Chevron represented an exciting new chapter for the business.&nbsp;

"We've spent almost four decades building homes that respond to the way people want to live, and we're excited to bring that experience to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chevron-island-qld-4217">Chevron Island</a>," Betteridge said.

"Bronze on Chevron is particularly significant because it marks Gardner Vaughan Group's first development on the Gold Coast following many successful projects across Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367183]

Betteridge said the ground breaking is a proud moment for the&nbsp;team and their purchasers, who can now see their future homes beginning to take shape.&nbsp;

"As both developer and builder, we're able to oversee every aspect of the project from design through to construction, ensuring the quality and attention to detail Gardner Vaughan Group has become renowned for."&nbsp;

Designed by acclaimed architectural practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, Bronze on Chevron has been thoughtfully designed to complement Chevron Island's evolving streetscape while embracing its relaxed coastal lifestyle.

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029

Gardner Vaughan Group breaks ground on first Gold Coast development, Bronze on Chevron

COVID-19

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GUEST OBSERVER
The COVID-19 pandemic has opened fault lines in social, economic and health-care policy in Australia. One area in which all three converge is homelessness.
It’s almost impossible to practise self-isolation and good hygiene if you’re living on the streets or moving from place to place. This puts homeless people at higher risk of both catching the disease and transmitting it to others.
At the beginning of the pandemic, governments recognised this problem and responded by <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-25/homeless-put-up-in-four-star-hotel-during-coronavirus/12176942">housing homeless people in hotels</a>.
But we need to act now to ensure these people aren’t forced back onto the streets as the pandemic recedes.
This is particularly important given we’re worried about the mental health fallout of the pandemic. Evidence shows homelessness and mental illness are inextricably linked.
Homelessness in Australia
The initiative to house the homeless in hotels has been targeted mostly at “rough sleepers”, of whom there are <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-25/homeless-put-up-in-four-star-hotel-during-coronavirus/12176942">more than 8,000</a> in Australia.
But people who sleep on the streets make up only a tiny proportion of the Australians <a href="https://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/61102520832D348ECA257A6F0012AF91/%24File/2049055001_2012.pdf">we consider to be homeless</a>. Homeless people also include those living in unstable or substandard accommodation, for example.
In 2018-19 <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-welfare/homelessness-and-homelessness-services">more than 290,000 Australians</a> – roughly 1.2% of the population – accessed specialist homelessness services.
So this is only a temporary solution to a national emergency, and addresses only the tip of the iceberg.
Mental illness and beyond
At least <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/mental-health-services/mental-health-services-in-australia/report-contents/specialist-homelessness-services">one in three</a> homeless people have a mental illness.
Homelessness is often a <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/current/mental-health/draft">consequence of mental illness</a>, especially of the more severe kinds that involve hallucinations, confusion, mood swings, depression and intense anxiety.
It’s also a consequence of family violence, which itself <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jun/07/domestic-abuse-victims-more-likely-to-suffer-mental-illness-study">increases the risk of poor mental health</a> in children and adults.
But homelessness can also be a <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/current/mental-health/draft">cause of mental illness</a>, through its associations with poverty, unemployment, emotional stress, food insecurity, discrimination, exploitation, loneliness and exposure to violence, crime and drugs.
The pandemic has momentarily lifted the cover on homelessness as a widespread and, so far, intractable social, economic and health problem.
It’s not only a reservoir of private suffering for those driven to the social margins through unstable or inadequate accommodation.
Homelessness also has <a href="https://humanrights.gov.au/our-work/rights-and-freedoms/publications/homelessness-human-rights-issue">broad social impacts</a>, including lost productivity, adverse effects on young people’s health, education and well-being, and increased consumption of mental health services and criminal justice resources, among others.
 
Next steps
What will happen to the homeless people currently housed in hotels <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-28/advocates-call-for-long-term-solution-to-homelessness-in-sa/12194210">as the pandemic subsides</a>?
As catastrophic an event as COVID-19 has been, it has created a unique opportunity to improve the long-neglected and critically poor state of social housing in Australia.
The Community Housing Industry Association recently put forward a strong economic argument under the <a href="https://www.communityhousing.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/20200197-SHARP-Final-ReportSGS.pdf?x59559">Social Housing Acceleration and Renovation Program (SHARP) proposal</a> for national investment in building 30,000 social housing units and upgrading existing housing.
Meanwhile, the <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/current/mental-health/draft">Productivity Commission draft report on mental illness</a> and the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) have put forward robust recommendations concerning housing policy for people with mental illness.
The Productivity Commission and AHURI both advocate increased investment in low-cost, secure and good-quality accommodation, linked where necessary with suitable support services.
Many jurisdictions have excellent programs that help people with mental illness to live independently, such as the <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/mentalhealth/services/Pages/hasi.aspx#:%7E:text=The%20Housing%20and%20Accommodation%20Support,way%20that%20they%20want%20to.">Housing and Accommodation Support Initiative</a> in NSW. But these need to be scaled up dramatically.
Affordable social housing combined with government transfer payments (such as pensions, Centrelink and disability payments) sufficient to meet basic living costs would be a major boon to mental health in this country.
Both the Productivity Commission and AHURI highlight <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/current/mental-health/draft">bridging the gaps in social housing</a> could promote recovery from mental illness, enabling greater social participation and enhancing well-being. It’s likely this approach would also prevent many cases of mental illness before they take hold.
In the long term this would far exceed the benefits flowing from <a href="https://www.greghunt.com.au/covid-19-48-1-million-for-national-mental-health-and-wellbeing-pandemic-response-plan/">piecemeal handouts for clinical services</a>, which is the present norm in addressing the mental health fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Home improvements or reducing homelessness?
Last week the Australian government announced <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-03/government-coronavirus-construction-stimulus-renovations-25k/12317786">HomeBuilder grants</a> of A$25,000 for owner-occupiers for certain works on their homes. This funding will be going to people who already have homes and can afford substantial renovations.
There is a strong case for making similar investments in housing the homeless, which would <a href="https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-019-7492-8">substantially benefit the mental health</a> of our most disadvantaged citizens.
Now is the time for a nationally coordinated effort by federal and state governments to institute economic, social and health policies to address the nexus between homelessness and mental health, and the poverty that feeds into both.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/vaughan-j-carr-2977">Vaughan J Carr</a>, Professor of Psychiatry, University of New South Wales; Adjunct Professor, Monash University, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414">UNSW</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/anthony-jorm-15032">Anthony Jorm</a>, Professor emeritus, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-australia-really-wants-to-tackle-mental-health-after-coronavirus-we-must-take-action-on-homelessness-139840">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

If Australia wants to tackle mental health after coronavirus, we must fix homelessness

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Yesterday, the Federal Government <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/homebuilder-program-drive-economic-activity-across-residential-construction-sector">announced</a> a new grant for Australians looking to build or renovate their homes.

Until 31 December 2020, the government’s HomeBuilder program will hand out a total of $25,000 for those who are eligible. This grant follows a series of stimulus packages introduced by the Morrison government in efforts to save the Australian economy from COVID-19. 

Summarised are <a href="/news/everything-you-need-to-know-about-australias-25-000-homebuilder-grant-how-much-off-the-plan-homebuyers-could-save">further details of the grant</a>:

<ul>
<li>The grant will be open to all owner-occupiers and not just first home buyers.</li>
	<li>Applicants must be aged 18 years or older</li>
	<li>Applicants must be Australian citizens</li>
	<li>To be eligible, income caps of $125,000 for singles and $200,000 for couples apply. This will be reviewed based on the applicants’ latest assessable income</li>
	<li>For new home renovations, a national dwelling price cap of $750,000 will apply</li>
	<li>For existing home renovations, a renovation price range of $150,000 to $750,000 will apply.</li>
	<li>Construction must commence within 3 months of the contract date</li>
</ul>
This program will complement the existing <a href="http://www.firsthome.gov.au/">national First Home Owner program</a>, stamp duty concessions and other grant schemes. Up to $680 million is expected to be given out to 27,000 Australians. 

The National Treasury has provided a <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-06/Fact_sheet_HomeBuilder.pdf">fact sheet</a> and an <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-06/HomeBuilder_Frequently_asked_questions.pdf">FAQ sheet</a> for those who are interested in applying for the grant.
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COVID-19: Federal government announces $25,000 grant for home builders and renovators

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The COVID-19 pandemic and bushfires at the start of the year dealt a huge blow to Australia. As of yesterday, official figures have confirmed that the Australian economy has officially felt the impact of both devastations, with its GDP shrinking by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2020.

Bruce Hockman, Chief Economist at the<a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mediareleasesbyCatalogue/C9973AC780DDFD3FCA257F690011045C?OpenDocument"> Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)</a> said: “This was the slowest through-the-year growth since September 2009 when Australia was in the midst of the Global Financial Crisis and captures just the beginning of the expected economic effects of COVID-19.”

Private demand fell by 0.8 percent, and net trade contributed only 0.5 percent to the total GDP. Imports of goods and services fell by 3.9 percent and 13.6 percent respectively, while Australian exports dropped by 12.8 percent.

Lockdown restrictions, a slowdown in tourism and rising unemployment from COVID-19 and the bushfires pushed the economy to recession. However, the Morrison government’s introduction of two <a href="/expert-insights/buying/how-our-state-and-federal-governments-can-support-the-property-industry-during-covid-19">stimulus packages</a> to keep Australians financially protected has seen some results: gross disposable income increased by 6.2 percent and household saving to income ratio rose to 5.5 percent.

COVID-19’s impact on Australia's property market is still one that is difficult to predict. Nevertheless, given the <a href="/news/qa-urban-sits-down-with-idle-wealth-director-torey-hansel-to-discuss-the-current-position-of-the-australian-property-market">resilient</a> nature of Australia’s housing market, experts are generally <a href="/expert-insights/buying/why-the-real-estate-industry-must-replace-fear-with-opportunity-during-the-covid-19-crisis">optimistic</a> that Australia will be back on track faster than most.
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Australia enters first recession in 29 years, yet experts remain optimistic about the property market

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Australia’s response to the coronavirus outbreak so far has been among the most successful in the world. From a peak of <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers#at-a-glance">more than 400 cases a day, the rate has fallen to fewer than 20 new cases a day</a>.
Australia has avoided the worst of the pandemic, at least for now. Comparable (albeit larger and more densely populated) countries, such as the United Kingdom and United States, are mourning many thousands of lives lost and are still struggling to bring the pandemic under control.
The reasons for Australia’s success story are complex, and success may yet be temporary, but four factors have been important.
Success 1: listening to experts
The formation of a <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/national-cabinet-update">National Cabinet</a>, comprising the prime minister and the leaders of each state and territory government, was a key part of Australia’s successful policy response to COVID-19.
States and territories have primary responsibility for public hospitals, public health and emergency management, including the imposition of lockdowns and spatial distancing restrictions. The Commonwealth has primary responsibility for income and business support programs. Coordination of these responsibilities was crucial.
The National Cabinet was <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/advice-coronavirus">created</a> quite late – in mid-March 2020 when cases were beginning to increase exponentially – but has proved an effective mechanism to resolve most differences as Australia’s dramatic and far-reaching measures were put in place.
Within a week of the National Cabinet being formed, Australia began to place restrictions on social gatherings. On <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-22/coronavirus-nsw-victoria-act-shutdown-non-essential-services/12079124">March 22</a>, ahead of a National Cabinet meeting that evening, Victoria, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory announced they were proceeding in the next 48 hours to shut down non-essential services. This helped push all other governments into widespread business shutdowns announced by Prime Minister Scott Morrison that night, to take effect the following day.
National cooperation was further enhanced by the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (<a href="https://www.health.gov.au/committees-and-groups/australian-health-protection-principal-committee-ahppc">AHPPC</a>), comprising Australia’s Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy and his state and territory counterparts. From the start of the crisis, this forum helped underpin Australia’s policy decisions with public health expertise, particularly with regard to spatial distancing measures. Murphy has frequently flanked Morrison at national press briefings.
Success 2: international border closures and quarantine
Australia’s <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/update-coronavirus-measures-0">decision to close its borders</a> to all foreigners on March 20, to “align international travel restrictions to the risks” was a turning point. The overwhelming number of new cases during the peak of the crisis were directly linked to overseas travel, and overseas sources account for nearly <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/resources/australian-covid-19-cases-by-source-of-infection">two-thirds of Australia’s total infections</a>.
A week after closing the borders, Australia instituted mandatory two-week quarantine for all international arrivals. Together, these measures gave Australia <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31016-3">much more control over the spread of the virus</a>.
 
Success 3: public acceptance of spatial distancing
Australia’s rapid adoption of spatial distancing measures reduced the risk of community transmission.
Perhaps galvanised by images of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30074-8">Italy’s health system on the brink of collapse</a>, Australians quickly complied with shutdown laws. In fact, many people had already <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-kept-our-distance-before-the-covid-decrees-phone-data-reveals-australians-goodwill-20200430-p54oho">begun reducing their activity</a> before the restrictions were imposed.
Australians’ compliance is demonstrated by the low number of community transmissions, despite having less strict lockdown laws than some other countries such as France and New Zealand.
Success 4: telehealth
One of the federal government’s early moves was to radically expand Australians’ access to telehealth. This allows patients to consult health professionals via videoconference or telephone, rather than in person.
Australians have <a href="https://www.greghunt.com.au/australians-embrace-telehealth-to-save-lives-during-covid-19/">enthusiastically embraced telehealth</a>, with more than 4.3 million medical and health services delivered to three million patients in the first five weeks. A <a href="https://www.racgp.org.au/gp-news/media-releases/2020-media-releases/may-2020/racgp-survey-reveals-strong-take-up-of-telehealth">survey of more than 1,000 GPs</a> found 99% of GP practices now offer telehealth services, alongside 97% offering face-to-face consultations.
Unfortunately, Australia has also had failings, and it might have been in an even better position today if it had acted more decisively. Although it eventually “went hard”, the federal government spent the early weeks of the crisis mired in uncertainty.
Failure 1: the Ruby Princess
About 2,700 passengers from the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/10/anatomy-of-a-cruise-how-the-ruby-princess-came-to-dock-and-disembark-with-coronavirus">Ruby Princess cruise ship</a> were allowed to disembark freely in Sydney on March 19, despite some showing COVID-19 symptoms. The ship has become Australia’s largest single source of infection. About <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-23/coronavirus-across-australia-if-ruby-princess-never-docked/12172314">700 cases (10% of Australia’s total)</a> and <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-13/australia-coronavirus-death-toll-rises-ruby-princess-fatality/12239626">22 deaths</a> (about 20% of Australia’s deaths) are linked to the ship.
Failure 2: too slow to close borders
While Australia was comparatively quick to ban foreign nationals coming from China, it was slow to introduce further travel restrictions as the virus began to spread throughout the rest of the world.
It took more than six weeks after Australia’s first confirmed case for the federal government to introduce universal travel restrictions. Before this, restrictions were targeted at specific countries, such as Iran, South Korea and, belatedly, Italy – despite other countries such as the US posing similar or even greater risks.
Failure 3: too slow to prepare the health system
Australia was too slow to ready its health system for the prospect of the virus spreading rapidly. When cases began to rise exponentially, Australia was ill-prepared for a pandemic-scale response.
This was particularly evident in the testing regime. At first, some people with symptoms went to community GP clinics and hospitals, without calling ahead, putting others at risk. On March 11 the federal government <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/24-billion-health-plan-fight-covid-19">announced</a> 100 testing clinics would be established, but this was <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-greg-hunt-mp/media/opening-of-100th-covid-19-gp-led-respiratory-clinic">only completed two months later</a>, once the peak of the crisis had passed.
The result was that as cases began to increase in mid-March 2020, Australia suffered <a href="https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/professional/chief-medical-officer-update-on-coronavirus-testin">supply shortages for testing</a>.
Australia also struggled to meet the rising demand for personal protective equipment (PPE). Australia’s <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22committees%2Fcommsen%2F75585d2b-2ea4-429c-bc62-d82fe6ee120d%2F0000%22">stockpile of 12 million P2/N85 masks and 9 million surgical masks</a> was not sufficient, and neither had it stockpiled enough <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-gowns-visors-gloves-national-medical-stockpile-to-be-reviewed-20200424-p54mxk">gowns, visors and goggles</a> to cope with the crisis. GPs complained of inadequate supplies hampering their work.
Eventually, on <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/national-cabinet-update">March 26</a>, elective surgeries were curtailed so PPE could be diverted to the pandemic frontline.
Failure 4: shifting strategies and mixed messages
The lack of a clear, overarching crisis strategy has resulted in a reactive policy approach, featuring confusing messages.
At first there was confusion about exactly which businesses or events (such as the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/09/no-chance-of-australian-grand-prix-going-behind-closed-doors-organisers">on-again</a> then <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-13/australian-formula-1-grand-prix-cancelled-over-coronavirus/12052142">off-again</a> Melbourne Grand Prix) should be shut down. There were also inconsistencies between the Commonwealth’s position and the states’. For example, most states closed or partially closed their public schools around Easter and began reopening them when cases went down more than a month later. Despite concerns raised by some state governments, Prime Minister Morrison repeatedly insisted there was no risk in sending children to school. Childcare centres remained officially open throughout.
The mixed messages have been particularly pronounced on Australia’s approach to the virus itself. The federal government initially talked about “slowing the spread”, but some states argued for a “stop the spread” strategy. This tension increased confusion about how far Australia’s lockdown restrictions should go. <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/why-australia-s-corona-wars-have-only-just-begun-20200430-p54oo1">Debate raged</a> between people who argued that “herd immunity” was Australia’s only realistic option, and those who pushed for “elimination” of COVID-19 in Australia.
Confusion reigned for too long. Even an <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/update-coronavirus-measures-160420">April 16 statement</a> from Morrison, designed to clarify the long-term strategy, conflated two different strategies by declaring Australia was continuing to “progress a successful suppression/elimination strategy for the virus”.
In the end, the case count provided its own answer. Several states began to record multiple days and weeks with no new cases, showing that elimination may indeed be possible.
As restrictions unwind, a new norm will set in. The risk of COVID-19 emerging again means Australians’ way of life will have to fundamentally change. Significant risks remain, particularly for states that ease restrictions too fast. Continual monitoring will be required to prevent further outbreaks or a second wave.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139845/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/stephen-duckett-10730">Stephen Duckett</a>, Director, Health Program, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/anika-stobart-1014358">Anika Stobart</a>, Associate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/4-ways-australias-coronavirus-response-was-a-triumph-and-4-ways-it-fell-short-139845">original article</a>.
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4 ways Australia's coronavirus response was a triumph, and 4 ways it fell short: Grattan Institute

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EXPERT OBSERVER
COVID-19 has brought about downside risks for the economy and housing market.
A 0.3% decline in March GDP confirmed a technical recession is underway in Australia, total wages paid fell 5.4% between mid-March and early May, and Australian dwelling market values saw the first month-on-month decline since June 2019. But one surprising sign of stabilising emerged in May.
Home sales have risen, with home owners testing the market, and new listings are rising. In fact, buyer demand is outweighing the volume of new listings.
 Strong absorption of new listings over May
This absorption can be observed across new and total listings data.
CoreLogic counts an advertised property as a ‘new’ listing if it has not previously been seen on the market in the past 72 days.
Total listings are the sum of new and re-listed stock for sale on the market. The count of new and total listings are typically reported in rolling 28-day periods.
In the 28-days to 31st of May, new listings rose 22.4% on the previous period, but total listings fell -2.9%. This means that even as more new stock came onto the market, buyer activity offset the additional stock.
This is an especially important trend to follow at the moment. As Australians face record high levels of housing debt, job and income losses could lead to a rise in urgent or distressed sales. The latest financial stability review outlined that for each percentage point rise in unemployment, there has typically been an 80 basis point rise in the rate of mortgage arrears.
If a large volume of distressed properties are listed simultaneously, this could put downward pressure on property values and make it harder to recoup equity from distressed sales.
This is largely why banks have offered ‘repayment holidays’ on mortgage repayments. APRA data suggests 60% of bank loans and advances are in housing, so a decline in property values affects bank profits and capital.
Another way to assess the uptake of new listings is to consider the ratio of sales to new listings. This measure is found by dividing sales volumes by the number of new listings, and has been used as a leading indicator of property price movements.
The ratio increased from 1.1 in April to 1.3 over May, coinciding with an estimated increase in sales volumes of 20.4% across the combined capital cities over the month. This is the highest sales to new listing ratio in at least 10 years, though sales and listings volumes are still at very low levels.
ELIZA OWEN is CoreLogic's <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/early-market-indicators-show-first-signs-housing-market-slowdown?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=20200420_propertypulse" target="_blank">head of research</a>
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Buyers are surprisingly responsive to rise in May listings: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVER
COVID-19 has brought about downside risks for the economy and housing market.
A 0.3% decline in March GDP confirmed a technical recession is underway in Australia, total wages paid fell 5.4% between mid-March and early May, and Australian dwelling market values saw the first month-on-month decline since June 2019. But one surprising sign of stabilising emerged in May.
Home sales have risen, with home owners testing the market, and new listings are rising.
In fact, buyer demand is outweighing the volume of new listings.
Where is demand coming from
Where is demand coming from? With the economy severely impacted by COVID-19, it is surprising to see such a strong rebound in transaction activity. But there are a few factors that can explain these numbers. The first is that the 20.4% jump in sales volumes in May is off a low base.
Over April, the number of transactions across the combined capital cities market was estimated to be just 16,115. That is the lowest monthly sales volume since 1991 excluding January results.
It is also pales in comparison to the decade average of 24,700 sales per month across these markets. Although a 20.4% uplift is significant, it still only brings sales volumes to an estimated 19,400 over May.
The second is a rise in consumer confidence. The ANZ Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence index has risen consecutively for the past 9 weeks.
At the week ending 31st of May, the index is 50.5% higher than when it bottomed out in late March.
In fact, the index is now just 9% lower than when Australia confirmed its first case of coronavirus in January. The easing of social distancing policies and low COVID-19 case numbers in Australia mean people may be feeling more confident about the future of the Australian economy, their personal finances, and property purchases.
Finally, the kind of workers most impacted by COVID-19 are those that are less likely to have mortgage debt. Between the 14th of March and 2nd of May, 27.1% of payroll jobs have been lost across accommodation and food services, and 19.0% of jobs have been lost across arts and recreation. In a previous blog, we noted that this would disproportionately affect renters rather than owner occupiers.
Data from the ABS and HILDA suggests the share of households renting that are in food and accommodation services, and are in a more precarious financial situation, is around 40%. This suggests that for now, conditions have been relatively stable in the housing market because those most impacted by the economic slowdown of COVID-19 may be less likely to have a mortgage obligation.
With stability emerging in the property transaction space, it is evident that additional housing stimulus is less urgent among those that can already afford property, and is another case for addressing housing costs for low income earners.
ELIZA OWEN is CoreLogic's <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/early-market-indicators-show-first-signs-housing-market-slowdown?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=20200420_propertypulse" target="_blank">head of research</a>
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Buyer demand outweighing new May listings: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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The Australian GDP fell 0.3 per cent in the March quarter, seasonally adjusted, according to figures released by the ABS.
That sees growth slow to 1.4 per cent through the year, the slowest through the year growth sine September 2009 when Australia was in the middle of the GFC.
The 0.3 per cent decline was the first quarterly pullback since 2011.
Private demand detracted 0.8 percentage points from GDP, driven primarily by a 1.1 per cent fall in household final consumption expenditure. 
Spending on services fell significantly, particularly where restrictions impacted most severely, such as air transport services, hotels, cafes and restaurants, recreation and culture. 
Spending on goods rose, most notably in food and pharmaceuticals, as households prepared for the introduction of restrictions. Imports of goods fell 3.9 per cent, with falls in consumption and capital goods reflecting weak domestic demand.
Imports of services fell 13.6 per cent, with travel services falling sharply in response to the global outbreak of COVID-19 and associated travel bans.
Exports of services declined 12.8 per cent, with restrictions on overseas arrivals reducing education related travel and tourism in Australia.
The household saving to income ratio rose to 5.5 per cent, reflecting a rise in gross disposable income and falls in consumption. 
Gross disposable income was driven by a 6.2 per cent increase in social assistance benefits due to both an increase in the number of recipients and the introduction of new government support packages in response to COVID-19 and bushfires.
Economists suggest Australia is certain to enter its first recession in 29 years.
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GDP falls 0.3 per cent in March quarter as COVID-19 starts to take its toll: ABS

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Property market values in Darwin have proven extremely resilient over the last three months, according to CoreLogic.   
“It is very encouraging Darwin’s property values are up nearly 2.5% over the last quarter. But realistically, the only way is up when the market has been skating along the bottom,” advised Glenn Grantham, general manager, Raine &amp; Horne Darwin. 
He noted volumes are significantly smaller than other capitals.
"One or two major transactions can impact median values in Darwin.
"Also, some of these contracts exchanged before lockdown restrictions applied.” 
Grantham continued, “Due to COVID-19, there is a shortage of listings in Darwin, which is helping to support values.”
On the demand side, Grantham says the Northern Territory’s low infection rate of 0.4% has caught the eye of interstate investors and downsizers.  
“Buying enquiries from interstate are much higher than earlier in 2020, but with our borders still closed, local owner-occupiers are dominating our sales transactions.”
Grantham said the most popular property in May was an elevated, three-bedroom house at <a href="https://www.raineandhorne.com.au/darwin/properties/21-graham-street-stuart-park-820-northern-territory" target="_blank">21 Graham Street, Stuart Park</a> (pictured below), which is on the market for offers over $590,000.   
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/5/25/stuart%20park.jpg" alt="">
“We’re negotiating with three buyers, while 25 groups viewed the property by way of individual appointments in accordance with COVID-19 protocols.  
Border closures are impacting contract negotiations, advised Grantham.
“We have an owner of a two-bedroom apartment in Parap, who hasn’t yet been able to make it back across the border to pack up his home.
“Once the owner returns to Darwin, he then has to self-isolate for two weeks in the apartment. 
The sticking point for the buyer is the settlement date, which depends on the vendor negotiating with border control to let him back into the Territory. We are still waiting to see how this plays out.”
The capital city’s investment markets are also holding steady with median yields at 6% and vacancy rates at 4%, according to Grantham. 
“With restrictions in place, people can’t move away from Darwin, and this situation is keeping our rental market steady. 
“Likewise, JobKeeper has helped significantly ensuring we’ve had minimal hardship requests from tenants.”
Raine &amp; Horne Darwin found a buyer for a house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property/80-francesca-cct-virginia-nt-0822" target="_blank">80 Francesca Circuit Humpty Doo</a> off-market in just three days last month. 
“The five-acre rural property is under contract for a price in the $500,000s, which was spot on our expectations,” Mr Grantham said. 
“We have been selling eight to ten properties a month at this time of year in recent times. 
“With values relatively stable and sales continuing to tick over, property markets in the Northern Territory seem relatively steady against the effects of the pandemic.” 
Interstate buyers are still a significant factor in sales enquiries and are taking advantage of virtual technologies to conduct property inspections, Mr Grantham noted.
“Virtual inspection technologies are assisting the marketing of 80 per cent of sales listings and 95 per cent of our rental stock.”
Darwin’s rental market metrics are also steady with vacancy rates of four per cent the same as earlier in 2020.
Although Mr Grantham noted COVID-19 has directly impacted the rental market.
“We have recorded a 50 per cent reduction in new tenancies because border closures have kept interstate workers who usually move here for work at home.”
However, a 50 per cent reduction in tenant vacates has offset the fall in new tenancies.  
Mr Grantham says rental arrears have only increased marginally from six to seven per cent in April.
“Also, only three per cent of our tenants have made hardship applications seeking rental reductions.
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COVID-19 safe keeps Darwin real estate intact

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Introduction
There has been much debate about the short-term economic and investment impact of coronavirus – on economic activity, unemployment, interest rates, house prices, shares, etc. However, the magnitude of the shock means it will have medium to longer-term implications as well. 
Of course, there is a danger in placing too much weight on current circumstances in assessing the future. Given this, we need to be a bit cautious, but here are 10 medium to longer-term impacts.
#1 Lower interest rates for even longer
The hit to economic activity has been huge, resulting in a lot of spare capacity that will take years to be used up. We don’t see global and Australian economic activity getting back to pre- coronavirus levels until late next year or 2022.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/5/25/covid%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/5/25/covid%201.jpg" alt="">
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Unemployment will take even longer to fall – it tends to go up via the lifts and down via the stairs. This will mean low inflation or deflationary pressure for the next three years at least. Which will mean central banks will be biased towards low interest rates for several years which will keep bond yields ultra-low.
Another way of looking at this is that given the hit to economic activity, interest rates would normally fall a lot further. In the GFC the Australian cash rate was cut by 4.25%. But because rates are already at or near zero, they can’t – so monetary easing is being achieved by quantitative easing. But an unconstrained cash rate for Australia would see it fall to around -3% not getting back to 0.25% until 2023 at the earliest.
In the meantime, it means several years of very low rates. It’s little wonder the RBA is targeting a 3-year bond yield of 0.25% and its low-cost funding rate for banks is also 0.25% for three years.
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Implications - Low rates mean very low returns from bank deposits and ultimately bonds but they make higher yielding shares and assets like property and infrastructure relatively attractive to investors once the hit to earnings and rents passes.
#2 A further blow to globalisation
Recent years have seen a backlash against globalisation evident in the rise of Trump, Brexit and a backlash in some countries against immigration. The coronavirus disruption has added to this. 
Worries about the supply of medical items have led to pressure for their domestic supply. This could move on to food security and looks to be morphing into a push to bring supply chains “back home”. Borders have been closed for health reasons and it is unclear when they will all reopen.
Implications - While the outcome may simply be a diversification in reliance away from China to other emerging countries, the risk is that this all leads to reduced growth potential for the emerging world generally. 
Longer term it could reduce productivity if supply chains are managed on other than economic grounds and could remove a key source of disinflationary pressure from the global economy.
#3 Another leg up in the US/China “cold war”
The trade war of 2018 and 2019 turned into a truce with the mini Phase One deal signed in January. However, with the coronavirus-driven shutdown, China is behind in its agreed purchases of US goods. 
What’s more, President Trump now faces a difficult task in winning the November presidential election - US presidents have not been re-elected when there is a recession and rising unemployment. This has been made worse by Trump’s inept handling of the crisis. This has left Trump keen to shift the blame over the virus and China is an easy target. He has already made some threats on this front and imposed some minor sanctions on China.
 At present Trump’s approval rating is around where it’s always been and is not weak enough for him to conclude that he has nothing to lose by taking big risks on this front (such as tearing up the trade deal and imposing more tariffs). But if his prospects start deteriorating dramatically, he may conclude that he has nothing to lose, particularly with 66% of Americans now having a negative view of China, up from 48% in 2018. The latter also suggests a Democrat president may also take a tough stance with China – although likely with more of a diplomatic focus. The point is that the US/China trade war risks ramping up.
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Implications – this could act as a negative for growth, work against multinationals and become a rising negative for shares. It also poses a threat to Australia but if Australia remains broadly neutral it may be minor (despite recent tensions around barley and beef) given that most Australian exports to China are for domestic use, not for reexport to the US.
#4 Bigger government and bigger public debt
The GFC brought an end to economic rationalism and support for smaller government and was associated with a leg up in public debt levels. Fading memories of the problems of too much government intervention added to this.
 The coronavirus crisis has likely added to support for bigger government intervention in economies and the tolerance of higher levels of public debt.
 Particularly given that it may have enhanced perceptions of inequality with well-paid white-collar workers being able to isolate and work at home whereas lower paid workers have been stood down or have to continue working in less safe conditions.
 Safety regulations to ensure distancing will also add to business costs, although hopefully this will just be for the short term if a medical solution to coronavirus is found.
Implications – bigger government and aggressive measures to address inequality could reduce productivity growth and hence economic growth. Although it’s worth noting that if the Australia adopts a productivity enhancing agenda it may buck this trend.
#5 Higher inflation with money printing
While it’s hard to see inflation becoming an issue in the next three years, the combination of rising public debt, money printing and more protectionism risks a longer term pick-up in inflation to say above 4%, particularly if central banks don’t reverse easy money quickly once spare capacity is used up.
Implications – a resurgence in inflation to high levels would be bad for productivity and negative for assets that benefitted from the “search for yield”. But it’s a much longer-term issue.
#6 Consumer and investor caution reinforced
The GFC led to a wariness and a degree of investor caution on the part of households. This has been evident in around 50% of Australians nominating bank deposits and paying down debt as the “wisest place” for their savings compared to around 30% before the GFC, and scepticism of shares. The coronavirus pandemic and its hit to incomes and job security has likely reinforced this.
Some even argue that the period of self- isolation will drive a rethink in terms of what’s important in life resulting in more mindful consumers focused on “do I really need it?” I am not so sure about the latter beyond the short term as people have short memories, but it is likely that household caution will remain, resulting in higher precautionary saving and more conservative investment strategies.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/5/25/covid%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:
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Implications - this will weigh on discretionary retailers, banks and wealth managers.
#7 Faster embrace of technology
Self-isolation has dramatically accelerated the move to a digital world. Workers, consumers, businesses, schools, universities, health professionals, young &amp; old have been forced to embrace new online ways of doing things. Many more have now embraced on-line retail, working from home &amp; virtual meetings.
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Implications – there are six big implications from this: • The challenge to traditional retailing has been ramped up dramatically putting more pressure on traditional retailers and shopping centre owners to improve their offering.
• Less office space demand – but this may be offset if more space per person is needed in the absence of a vaccine. • A shift from cities to suburbs/regions – as the shutdown shows that a “sea or tree change” is viable for many.
• This in turn may mean the beginning of the end for peak hour traffic congestion (although it could spike in the short term as people prefer to drive as long as Covid is still a risk). • Virtual meetings may see less demand for business travel.
• This is positive for IT tech stocks facilitating online activity.
#8 Bad for airlines
Which brings us to airlines. Less business demand for travel points to lasting damage. Some say the same may apply to tourists – but if a medical solution is found or the virus just dies out I suspect tourism will bounce back but based on the experience after 9/11 it may take a decade to fully recover.
Implications – airlines have already taken a big hit, but they are likely to be the slowest industry to recover.
#9 Another test for the Eurozone?
Slow progress towards providing support for Italy has led to renewed concerns that the Euro area may break up. Populist anti Euro leaders may get a boost from the crisis, particularly if there is a new wave of migrants from Libya. 
However, Europe seems to be doing what it always does – gradually heading towards a solution with Germany agreeing with France for the common issuance of bonds and shifting in favour of fiscal stimulus. 
The pressures to keep the Eurozone together (safety in numbers, a high degree of identification as Europeans, solid public support for the Euro, Germany benefitting from the EU and Germany’s huge exposure to Italian bonds via the ECB) remain far stronger than the forces pulling it apart.
Implications – I wouldn’t bet on the Euro breaking apart.
#10 Lower immigration
This is already a reality in Australia with travel bans and since immigration normally accounts for around 1 percentage point of population growth in Australia its absence knocks up to 1% off economic growth. The issue is how long immigration remains low. 
Australia would likely be a popular destination for migrants and students given its success in limiting coronavirus. And a rigorous testing/quarantine regime could allow both back sooner rather than later. That said I suspect while students will return faster, political pressures associated with higher unemployment will allow only a gradual recovery in immigration.
Implications – this is bad for home building &amp; home prices as the hit to immigration has cut underlying dwelling demand by 80,000pa. But I suspect it creeps back over the next five years.
Concluding comments
Several of these longer-term implications will constrain economic growth and hence potential investor returns – notably the reversal of globalisation, bigger government, consumer caution &amp; lower immigration. The faster embrace of technology will work in the other direction though to boost productivity and lower for longer interest rates are positive for growth assets.
Finally, a word of caution - anyone who got too negative for the long term in the last really major pandemic of 1918-19 might have missed out entirely on the “Roaring Twenties!” It’s much easier to think up negative things. 
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SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital
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10 medium to longer-term implications from the coronavirus shock: Shane Oliver 

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
As the public health response to supress the COVID-19 virus ramps up, so to does the economic fallout. Shutdowns and enforced spatial distancing are necessary to try to prevent hospital intensive care units becoming overwhelmed.
But businesses on the economic frontline – those shut or soon to be shut down by the public health restrictions – need immediate help to get through.
The necessary temporary hit to business incomes need not become a permanent hit to productive capacity. We should not risk a large swathe of shops, cafes, pubs, hotels, gyms, and hairdressers going to the wall.
Most of these frontline businesses have seen their income dry up overnight. Some have temporarily closed, others are <a href="https://www.goodfood.com.au/eat-out/news/what-melbournes-restaurants-are-doing-in-response-to-the-coronavirus-pandemic-20200320-h1moz4" target="_blank">finding creative ways to make some money</a> in online retail or takeaway services, for example, but most will replace only a fraction of their pre-crisis income.
<h2>Rent is the biggest barrier to survival</h2>
Staff layoffs, or more <a href="https://www.natlawreview.com/article/covid-19-australia-stand-down-what-does-it-all-mean" target="_blank">hopefully stand downs</a>, are the only option for most of these business. Even substantial wage subsidies won’t entice business owners to keep staff on when the business has shut its doors.
For businesses on the economic frontline, most of their variable costs such as wages and stock can be suspended during the shutdown. But their fixed costs – particularly rent – are substantial.
The average retailer pays almost A$12,000 in rent a month; the average gym, $10,000. Cafes and hairdressers are losing $3,000 to $4,000 each month in rent. 
For most exposed businesses, rent sits at less than 20% of operating costs under normal conditions, but while they hibernate through coronavirus, that figure will reach somewhere between 80% and 95%.
Some schemes have already been announced to help these businesses. The Commonwealth’s is the largest, and will pay small and medium businesses 100% of salary and wages withheld for tax purposes up to $100,000. For businesses to qualify for the full amount, they will need to withhold the same amount, so will need to be paying staff.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323472/original/file-20200327-132965-1bqrk6j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323472/original/file-20200327-132965-1bqrk6j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
 2019 data. Grattan Institute analysis of IBISWorld industry reports
State governments have announced partial relief of tax, rates and fees, and access to loans. This will help, but rent is the big unavoidable cost for most of the frontline businesses.
Exposed businesses will be losing thousands of dollars, or more, each month. Many will have some cash reserves, but for most a shutdown of three months or more will be very difficult to absorb.
A rent holiday, or at least a significant rent discount, would give these businesses a fighting chance at preventing a temporary shutdown becoming a permanent closure.
<h2>Market rates are close to zero</h2>
Most shopfronts can’t be put to other uses. That means the market price for retail, food, and accommodation services, and personal services shopfronts will be very close to zero during the shutdown.
Some landlords have done the right thing and given their tenants a rent holiday while these restrictions are in place.
This is smart: keeping their tenants in business will give these landlords the best chance of having a rented property when restrictions are lifted.
In normal circumstances, the market would work this through. But the danger here is it will happen too slowly. Some landlords refuse to accept renting out their premises for nothing.
In Melbourne, Chadstone retailers just wrote to Chadstone management asking for a rent holiday to “save our businesses”.
The response from management was <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/chadstone-retailers-push-for-three-months-rent-free-citing-bankruptcy-fears-20200325-p54dnu">no.</a>
That mindset could send many thousands of shops, cafes, pubs, restaurants, hairdressers, gyms, cinemas, and tourism operators to the wall.
As of last week, more than 70% of businesses in these industries had already been hit by the COVID-19 crisis. That figure is expected to rise beyond 90% in the coming weeks.
“Closures” was the most common word used by business owners surveyed by the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5676.0.55.003?OpenDocument" target="_blank">Bureau of Statistics</a> about the future effect of COVID-19.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323434/original/file-20200326-133007-uaqa55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323434/original/file-20200326-133007-uaqa55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5676.0.55.003" target="_blank">Source: ABS cat no. 5676.0.55.003 - Business Indicators, Business Impacts of COVID-19, March 2020</a>
Preventing landlords from evicting commercial tenants, or requiring landlords to defer the rents, won’t help – businesses will still liquidate if they know they will be lumbered with many months of rent to pay back down the track.
While a short-term income hit for landlords isn’t insignificant, the damage to the economy will be much greater if a swathe of small and medium-sized businesses are lost.
<h2>Acting now will reduce the damage</h2>
The owners of some properties that need rental holidays still have to make monthly mortgage payments to banks. But the banks are offering loan holidays they might be able to take advantage of.
If there are gaps in the loan holiday arrangements, governments should work with the banks to ensure landlords are covered. Alternatively, governments themselves could offer partial compensation for lost rent.
Prosper Australia has suggested a uniform <a href="https://www.prosper.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Memo-to-state-Governments_-Commercial-tennancy-intervention-for-Covid19-resilience.pdf" target="_blank">subsidy</a> that replaces 50% of lost commercial tenancy mortgage payments.
Right now, hundreds of thousands of businesses are crunching the numbers to see whether than can stay solvent. With rent on the expense side, those numbers won’t add up for long.
Every state and territory government ought to enact a rental holiday for the types of businesses on the frontline of this crisis. As the economic shockwave reverberates, state and territory ministers should have the power to add other vulnerable industries to that list.
The key is speed. For every day they wait, hundreds of businesses will fold.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134890/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/danielle-wood-147710" target="_blank">Danielle Wood</a>, Program Director, Budget Policy and Institutional Reform, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168" target="_blank">Grattan Institute</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kate-griffiths-94706" target="_blank">Kate Griffiths</a>, Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168" target="_blank">Grattan Institute</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nathan-blane-934089" target="_blank">Nathan Blane</a>, Analyst, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168" target="_blank">Grattan Institute</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-case-for-a-rent-holiday-for-businesses-on-the-coronavirus-economic-frontline-134890" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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