A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Joel Robinson

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

The long-planned transformation of Brisbane's historic Shafston Estate has taken another major step, with Capella Hotel Group announced as the luxury hospitality partner behind what will become Brisbane's first branded residences.

The project, to be known as Capella Residences Brisbane, is being delivered by Verso Projects at the landmark Kangaroo Point riverfront estate, with completion targeted for 2029.

The announcement follows a series of planning changes to the project over recent years. The site was originally approved in 2023 for a 15-level, 37-apartment development designed by Rothelowman for Burgundy Group before Verso Projects took over the 10,070 sqm riverfront holding and lodged revised plans with Kerry Hill Architects to increase the development to a 25-level tower with 51 apartments.

The latest announcement confirms Capella Hotel Group will bring its branded residential offering to the project, marking just the second Capella Residences development globally after Seoul, and the group's first branded residential project in Australia.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/23-castlebar-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Castlebar Street development</a> will centre around the restoration of the heritage-listed Shafston House, one of Brisbane's oldest residences, originally constructed in 1851 by Reverend Robert Creyke as a single-storey cottage known as Ravenscott.

<img alt="Capella" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2b9f4ce5-638f-4d6b-8082-3ca7e4b75fca" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-09%20at%207.20.41%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=f7aeqsW_DzOJI4FymWb3lD8NptSfsP7q" />

Capella said the project aligns with its focus on heritage-led developments, with the Brisbane estate combining the restored historic residence with a new luxury apartment tower and hospitality-inspired resident amenities.

Residents will have access to the Capella Living Room, a concierge-led communal space inspired by the group's luxury hotels, alongside landscaped gardens, six swimming pools, wellness and recreation facilities.

The broader estate will also include two riverfront homes, a six-berth private marina, porte cochère arrival experience, secure basement parking and a new section of public riverwalk along the Brisbane River frontage.

The heritage Postal Depot Building will also be retained and repurposed as a guest house, in line with the revised development plans.

The project represents another evolution for the site, which Kerry Hill Architects previously described as a rare opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's most significant heritage estates while creating a new benchmark for apartment living.

"The Shafston Estate provides a once-in-a-generation opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's finest heritage precincts and to reinstate residential use as a unique site perched on the edge of Kangaroo Point," Kerry Hill Architects said in its Urban Context Report accompanying the planning submission.

"The project will celebrate excellence in sub-tropical residential design, setting a new benchmark for vertical living in Brisbane."

Verso Projects, which now has an $8.5 billion development pipeline spanning more than 6,000 dwellings across apartments, townhouses, retail and commercial projects, said the partnership with Capella would elevate the development beyond a traditional residential project.

"We feel honoured to be restoring Shafston Estate to its former glory, elevating it to new heights of luxury and excellence underpinned by Capella's distinctive service ethos and design philosophy, and making it a standout landmark in Brisbane," Verso Projects CEO Steve Laffey said.

"By partnering with Capella, globally recognised for its refined approach to luxury hospitality and deep respect for cultural and historical context, we will elevate this project beyond a residential offering into a world-class destination."

Capella Hotel Group President Roland Fasel said Brisbane's emergence as a global city made it the right location for the company's Australian residential debut.

"Brisbane is a city on the cusp of something remarkable, and Capella Residences is our commitment to being part of that story," Fasel said.

"The Capella residential experience is more than luxury. It is about a sense of belonging to a place with deep meaning."

Private appointments have now opened for the project, with a display suite expected to open in late 2026 ahead of the planned 2029 completion.

Capella to launch Brisbane's first branded residences at Shafston House, Kangaroo Point

Lewis Land's latest apartment release within its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan is targeting one of the Gold Coast's fastest-growing buyer groups, with almost a third of apartments at Solis priced below $1 million.

The seven-storey building at Biggera Waters will comprise 91 apartments, including 24 one-bedroom residences starting from $778,000, a price point Lewis Land says is aimed squarely at first home buyers struggling to enter the Gold Coast market.

<img alt="Harbour Shires" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e7486e37-22f6-4c92-b212-9b0622070b8f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.34%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=W8MJwJUCf6HkIyl_EVSksnd.QI6MZryY" />

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lewis-land-group">Lewis Land</a> Head of Development Michael Long said the developer deliberately allocated a significant proportion of the project to more affordable apartment types.

"First home buyers have been priced out of many parts of the Gold Coast, and we saw a clear opportunity to address this and play our part in a longer-term housing solution," Long said.

"That's why 24 of the 91 apartments being delivered at Solis have been designed and priced for the city's next generation of homeowners, quality one-bedroom apartments, half of which include an additional multipurpose room to maximise space and flexibility.

"This approach places 30 per cent of apartments in Solis under $1 million, and with close proximity to Harbour Town's future light rail extension connecting residents to the city's major employment and knowledge hubs, it's a win for buyers looking to secure their first property."

<img alt="Sores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="550526d3-73ba-4710-9739-c5f4294a30ef" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.29%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cQQdXHt9wS0UXwZEm5Py5bH_3kAmzyhu" />

Designed by BDA Architecture, Solis will deliver a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, with residences ranging up to 232 sqm. Apartments feature generous balconies and contemporary finishes, while residents will have access to Harbour Shores' lagoon pool, clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga studio and sauna.

The focus on first home buyers resonated with purchaser Holly Humphreys, who said she and her boyfriend spent more than a year searching for their first property before shifting their attention from houses to apartments.

"We fell in love with the first house we bid on and got our hopes up, but after repeated knockbacks we learned not to get too attached," Humphreys said.

"We offered at the high end of price guides, but sales kept going even higher. That's where we really struggled and we needed to re-evaluate our budget and our expectations. Standalone houses were off the table, and we pivoted to apartments and townhouses."

Humphreys said it was encouraging to see developers recognising the growing demand from first home buyers.

"There's a growing number of young buyers looking to enter the market earlier because they understand that getting in now can make a real difference as prices continue to rise," she said.

"It's fantastic to see a developer recognise this and then actively take measures to deliver an apartment with us in mind."

Solis is the first development planned within the second stage of the Harbour Shores masterplan, with early works expected to commence in September 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land targets first home buyers at latest Harbour Shores release, Solis

Luxury apartment developer Abadeen has recorded $19.25 million in apartment sales across two of its Lower North Shore developments in the lead-up to the end of the financial year, headlined by the sale of a $6.75 million penthouse at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/koyo-crows-nest-5-rodborough-avenue-crows-nest-nsw-2065">KOYO in Crows Nest.</a>

The transactions also included the sale of a newly completed three-bedroom apartment at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/park-residences-cremorne-2-sutherland-street-cremorne-nsw-2090">Park Residences in Cremorne</a> for $6.35 million, with the residence selling shortly after the project's first public inspections following completion.

The sales come as completed, owner-occupier-focused apartments continue to attract strong demand across Sydney's Lower North Shore, particularly from buyers looking for certainty and immediate occupancy.

The penthouse at KOYO spans 491 sqm across a single level and was designed by architect Koichi Takada. The development is one of Abadeen's flagship boutique projects in Crows Nest.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108800 project_image_fid=370093]

Abadeen Executive Chairman and Founder Justin Brown said buyer activity lifted noticeably in the lead-up to the end of the financial year.

"We saw a clear increase in enquiry levels, inspection numbers and buyer engagement across our completed projects leading into the end of the financial year," Brown said.

"Buyers have become far more decisive over the past six months. The combination of improving confidence, limited supply and the ability to physically inspect completed residences is creating strong competition for premium apartments in the best locations."

Brown says the&nbsp;response to Park Residences following completion has been particularly strong.

"Buyers want certainty and are responding positively to the opportunity to walk through a finished product, inspect the quality firsthand and move in immediately," Brown suggested.

"Projects such as Park Residences and KOYO demonstrate that when the product is exceptional and the location is irreplaceable, buyers are prepared to act quickly."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=370116]

Abadeen CEO Joe Tack said quality continued to differentiate projects in the current market.

"Today's buyers are incredibly discerning," Tack said.

"They are seeking larger floorplans, premium finishes, walkability, lifestyle amenity and confidence in the developer delivering the project. Well-designed boutique developments continue to outperform because they offer something genuinely difficult to replace.

"The enquiry we are seeing across our completed and recently completed Lower North Shore portfolio is very encouraging, and we expect this momentum to continue into spring."

The sales follow increased enquiry across Abadeen's Lower North Shore portfolio which also includes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/northcote-collective-naremburn-2-northcote-street-naremburn-nsw-2065">Northcote Collective in Naremburn</a> which also completed recently.

KOYO penthouse headlines Abadeen's $19.25 million EOFY sales flurry

The City of Sydney has approved plans for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/billbergia">Billbergia Group</a> and Metrics Credit Partners’ $3.5 billion Castlereagh Place project in the heart of the Sydney CBD

The towers will be among the tallest in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/sydney-nsw-2000">Sydney</a>'s CBD, with more floors than any other residential tower in the city.&nbsp;

The 6,000 sqm site was acquired by the joint venture partners in 2024. It is the largest amalgamated land parcel in the Sydney CBD and comprises eight individual sites fronting Castlereagh, Pitt and Liverpool Streets.&nbsp;

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castlereagh-place-sydney-324-348-pitt-street-sydney-nsw-2000">Castlereagh Place</a> will transform an underutilised city block into a landmark mixed-use destination, anchored by two 82-storey towers comprising 607 luxury residences above an 8-level podium housing a 209-room luxury hotel. A 1,000 square metre civic park on ground level features a curated mix of food, beverage and retail.

The plans have been refined over the past year to rebalance the residential and hotel offering, and reconfigure the retail footprint to create a stronger, more dynamic dining experience.

A three-level flagship building on the prominent corner of Pitt and Liverpool Streets will be the gateway to the Castlereagh Place lifestyle precinct. Set to become a Sydney icon, the building is capable of housing multiple hospitality venues.

“Castlereagh Place is designed to be the City's next great urban oasis - an energetic mixed-use precinct that pulses with life, day and night,"&nbsp;said Joseph Kinsella, Group Director of Billbergia.

"It will bring the vibrancy of places like Barangaroo and Darling Quarter into a more accessible, central destination at the very heart of Sydney."

Kinsella said the project will build on&nbsp;Sydney’s growing laneway culture with the City’s largest network of new activated lanes - an expanded, next-generation take on precincts like Angel Place, Palings Lane and Ash Street in Wynyard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134477 project_image_fid=374401]

Castlereagh Place has been designed by architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fjc-studio">fjcstudio</a> in collaboration with Trias Studio, Aileen Sage and Polly Harbison Design, joint winners of an international design competition in 2018.&nbsp;

Signature design elements from the original scheme remain unchanged, while the public domain has been significantly enhanced, delivering 60 per cent more open-to-sky space.

Pedestrian access will also be enhanced through new laneways linking Pitt, Liverpool and Castlereagh Streets, drawing people into a new civic park with outdoor seating, landscaping and integrated public art.

With activated laneways supported by strong hospitality offerings, Castlereagh Place is tipped to become a vibrant new dining destination in the heart of Sydney’s CBD.

It marks the largest undertaking to date for the Billbergia and Metrics Credit Partners partnership. Together they are developing other underutilised Sydney sites into mixed-use precincts, including the $2.2 billion Concord Central and the $1.3 billion Chatswood Grand Residences.

Metrics Managing Partner and Group CEO Andrew Lockhart said Castlereagh Place is a landmark project that will redefine Sydney’s skyline.

"As the tallest residential high-rise development, the revitalised site will offer panoramic views across the CBD and surrounds. We are excited to partner with Billbergia to reinvigorate an underutilised site and create a sophisticated and contemporary mixed-use offering situated in the heart of Sydney.”

Total apartments within the towers have increased to 607 dwellings, with a focus on larger floorplans. Aligned to growing market demand, Castlereagh Place now comprises 299 three-plus-bedroom apartments, 198 two-bedroom units and 110 one-bedroom configurations.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134477 project_image_fid=374402]

Resident amenities will include an exclusive residents club containing a gym, rooftop pool, dining rooms, co-working spaces, library, golf simulator, games room, cinema room, and access to an exclusive concierge service. There will be around 500 basement car spaces below the towers.

The development will also include a state-of-the-art wellness centre, set to feature a bathhouse with magnesium pools, hot/cold plunge pools and premium amenities.

&nbsp;

According to fjcstudio, the towers will feature distinctive yet elegant architectural design reflecting Sydney’s geometry and urban character, with a network of through-site links and intimate public spaces activating the streetscape.

"Castlereagh Place is a city-making project of significant scale and ambition," said Richard Francis-Jones, Design Director at fjcstudio.

"It will create a rich urban complex of public open spaces, landscaped gardens, and vibrant laneways. Defining these new public spaces and the important streetscape of Castlereagh Street is a sequence of fine-grained, diverse retail and hotel architecture designed in collaboration with Aileen Sage, Polly Harbison Design and Trias.

“Rising above the tree-lined, human-scale streetscape are two slender residential towers that will transform the city skyline and look towards the Harbour, Hyde Park, and the Royal Botanic Garden.”

Demolition and early construction works have commenced onsite at Castlereagh Place.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134477]

Billbergia, Metrics, approved for $3.5 billion Sydney skyscrapers

COVID-19

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Young first home buyers are looking far and wide for COVID-19 bargains and are eager to take advantage of new HomeBuilder grants, ME’s latest Quarterly Property Sentiment Report suggests.
A whopping 82% of first-time buyers agreed they hoped to see bargain properties for sale if the economy worsens – compared to 66% of investors and 57% of owner occupiers. Just over half (51%) of first home buyers, the most of any group, planned to get onto the property ladder in the next 12 months, up 9 points on the previous quarter. Millennials were also the most positive about the current property market by age group (40%).
These are key findings from the sixth edition of ME’s Quarterly Property Sentiment Report, which surveys investors, owner occupiers and first home buyers ahead of each upcoming quarter. This survey was conducted for Q3 2020 in June when COVID-19 restrictions initially eased across most states and territories.
ME General Manager Home Loans, Andrew Bartolo said: “First home buyers may be looking to find a silver lining in the current economic climate, thanks to greater potential for property price falls, record low interest rates and government support. Of course, this will be more realistic for those whose employment and income haven’t been affected as a result of the pandemic.”
First-time buyers considering the regions
First home buyers may be eyeing off bargains in regional areas because of the pandemic. Two-thirds (60%) said they were more likely to consider buying in a regional area during COVID-19, to save money and improve their lifestyle, compared to 45% of total respondents overall.
Mr Bartolo said: “New remote and flexible working arrangements brought in to accommodate for COVID-19 have clearly influenced Australians’ sentiment towards buying in regional areas. It’s now a more feasible option for many and if prices are lower in those areas and you think it will improve your lifestyle – of course it’s an attractive possibility.
“I think many Australians dream about moving to a regional area at some stage during their life, so it will be interesting to see how many do actually decide to pursue a sea or tree change, perhaps earlier than expected.”
First-time buyers keen on HomeBuilder
The Federal Government’s HomeBuilder appears to be spurring first home buyer interest. Over half (52%) of first home buyers said they were interested in applying for the grants, compared to just 33% of existing home buyers.
Overall, 58% of respondents said they thought HomeBuilder would significantly increase activity in the property market.
“With strong interest from first home buyers as seen in the report, hopefully the HomeBuilder grant will help more younger Australians get their foot in the door and increase buying activity in the wider market as a result,” Mr Bartolo said.
Uptick in general optimism
Overall, Australians recovered some optimism about the property market following the initial wave of COVID-19. Positive sentiment rose to 35% for Q3 2020, up six points from 29% in the previous quarter, but still well below the recent high of 39% in Q1 2020. Worries around how COVID-19 would affect the value of property also slightly eased, down 9 percentage points since last quarter to 55%.
However, when asked about their actual property plans over the next 12 months, the majority of Australians (61%) overall are still planning to hold steady and neither buy nor sell, with only 10% in the market indicating they have plans to sell, which was also reflected in the previous quarter.
“The global pandemic continues to shift consumer sentiment and create volatility in the Australian property market, a situation no one would have expected at the beginning of the year. The impact of COVID-19 negatively shifted consumer sentiment towards the property market in the second quarter of the year, but we started to see signs of optimism in June,” Mr Bartolo said.
“Hopefully this renewed positivity and growing confidence is able to weather possible second waves of COVID-19 cases as we’ve seen in Victoria, which is no doubt increasing worry across the nation.”
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

FHB's look for COVID-19 bargains even in country towns: ME Bank

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EXPERT OBSERVER
An emerging narrative around regional dwelling markets is that they may see increased demand as a result of COVID-19.
This is thought to be driven by the way the pandemic has forcibly introduced remote work for knowledge-based or clerical workers. As employers and employees adapt to remote working conditions, physical proximity to a workplace may become a less important factor in home purchases.
In the June 2020 quarter, about 3 months into the engineered economic slowdown, CoreLogic data showed regional centres have seen higher capital growth than the capital city regions.
The charts below show the rolling quarterly growth of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, alongside quarterly growth of nearby major regional centres.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/7/16/Owen%201.JPG" target="_blank">Click to enlarge:</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/16/Owen%201.JPG" alt="">
This more positive outcome is short term, and is more likely tied to cyclical patterns than changes in demographic trends, which are typically a gradual phenomenon. The charts demonstrate that even though regional centres have not seen price falls in the June quarter, growth rates have seen a slowdown in momentum.
Regional growth rates peaked around late 2019, and could nudge into negative territory later this year without significant improvement to economic conditions or a demonstrated shift in demand side factors like population growth.
Illawarra and Newcastle, and Geelong and Ballarat, also saw a relatively weak upswing compared with the Sydney and Melbourne markets over the second half of 2019.
The relative stability of growth rates mean that these regional centres may not see as deep a downswing in the coming months.
COVID-19 and long term demographic trends
Regional Australia is considered appealing for relatively low levels of density, less congestion, and typically lower price points for property. The median dwelling value for combined regional areas of Australia was $394,570 at June 2020, 38.5% lower than the combined capital city median of $641,671.
One way to assess whether COVID-19 could exacerbate a tree-change or sea-change trend, is to examine population movements before the onset of the pandemic.
ABS internal migration data at the SA4 level sheds some light on this. Areas with the highest levels of net internal migration over 2018-19 (where more people moved to an area from another part of Australia than departed it) are shown below. These include the Capital Region of regional NSW, the Sunshine Coast, Melbourne – West, the Gold Coast and Ipswich.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/16/Owen%202.JPG" alt="">
From these examples, there was already a trend of movement from more suburban or metropolitan areas to regional areas. But two of the highest levels of net internal migration are actually still within capital city bounds. Melbourne – West and Ipswich are technically in greater capital city regions, but see a large number of migrants from the inner city.
This may reflect both availability of developable land transitioning to large greenfield housing estates as well as cohorts such as inner-city renters and first home buyers making the transition to buy in more affordable areas that are still commutable to the CBD.
That is an important trend to consider, because it is a scenario where past migration may have been driven by affordability instead of preference for a regional lifestyle.
If that is the case, a mitigating factor to the draw of regional areas during COVID-19, is that dwellings closer to the city are also becoming cheaper, which may slow migration to the city fringe. But affordability is not the only drawcard of regional Australia. Parts of regional Australia may offer lower levels of population density, which is arguably desirable in the wake of a pandemic.
There have also been recent examples of people departing from higher socio-economic areas to parts of regional Australia.
Over 2018-19, an estimated 1,453 residents form the Sydney - Eastern Suburbs region departed for areas such as the Central Coast, Richmond-Tweed and the Gold Coast.
The normalisation of remote work amid COVID-19 is more likely to bolster regional migration than slow it. But in the wake of the pandemic, the return to an office environment may still be desirable for some employees and employers.
Furthermore, it is important to note that the broad-based impact to housing demand from the pandemic could see prices fall in regional centres over the second half of 2020.
Price falls are unlikely to be as sharp as what will be observed in capital city markets, where more expensive, capital city markets have historically shown more volatility than regional Australia.
ELIZA OWEN is the Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic 
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Can regional housing markets benefit from COVID-19? CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The thought of various government support measures expiring in the months ahead, causing some sort of fiscal cliff over which economies and share markets will plunge, has caused much consternation. But as with the original fiscal cliff of December 31, 2012 in the US, it’s likely to be tapered into a fiscal slope. Particularly with so called “second waves” of coronavirus reaping havoc with the economic outlook. Of course, this will add to the public sector’s debt burden associated with the coronavirus shock, in turn adding to concern about some sort of fiscal day of reckoning down the track.
This note looks at the key issues around fiscal support and the budget in Australia ahead of the Treasurer’s Economic Statement (due 23rd July) which is expected to provide new economic forecasts, an estimate of the budget cost of support measures so far and outline plans for future support measures.
Fiscal stimulus to be extended
It made sense for many of the coronavirus government support measures to expire at the end of September as it avoided a permanent/hard to reverse lift in public spending, and to borrow from the analogy likening the support measures to a bridge across a chasm, once the coronavirus chasm has been crossed there is no longer the need for the bridge. However, its increasingly clear that support will be needed for longer:
First, the second wave of coronavirus cases in Australia has seen the Victorian Government return Melbourne to a “stay at home” six-week lockdown which will slow the recovery. While we estimate the direct impact on the Australian economy to be around $5bn which will knock around 1% off GDP this quarter, there is a high risk that it impacts confidence in other states (as people “self-isolate”) and that other states may also return to a lockdown if cases spread, with NSW most at risk. This already appears to be impacting economic activity, with our Australian Economic Activity Tracker which combines timely weekly data faltering over the last two weeks, after ten consecutive weeks of recovery.
Second, the easy gains from the initial reopening including the unleashing of pent up demand may have mostly been seen but distancing requirements and travel restrictions mean that it will take much longer for some industries - travel, events, culture, accommodation, restaurants and housing construction - to get back to normal.
Third, the coronavirus shock has accelerated the shift to a digital world, such that job losses associated with automation are now likely occurring faster than new jobs are being created. Three examples of this are a faster take up of online retailing meaning less jobs in retailing, more working from home meaning less office demand and less jobs in public transport and less business travel in favour of virtual meetings meaning less use of airlines and hotels.
The last two mean that “spare capacity” will linger well into the future and this is likely to show up in a long tail of high unemployment. Without the JobKeeper wage subsidy and changes to JobSeeker, “effective unemployment” would have risen to 14.8% in April and would still be around 13.6% now.
The initial spike in “effective unemployment” may be reversed quickly taking it down to say 9% by year end, but getting it back to 5% as seen early this year could take years as some sectors take a long time to recover and accelerated structural change impacts. This suggests both a short-term and a long-term challenge for government which will likely be met at least in the short term by more fiscal stimulus.
Will it be enough?
By extending programs like JobKeeper beyond September and announcing additional stimulus including the likely bring forward of tax cuts, the Government will effectively taper the fiscal cliff and turn it into more of a slope. This helps solve the short-term reality that a lot of jobs won’t have come back by October. However, it remains to be seen whether this will be enough given the long tail of unemployment flowing from the coronavirus shock discussed earlier. The Government’s focus looks likely to shift to economic reforms in the October budget and this makes sense, but more fiscal support may ultimately be needed to soak up the likely long tail of unemployment.
Can we afford the surge in the deficit and debt?
Our assessment remains that it is affordable. First, were it not for the support measures the economic hit would be far greater, ultimately resulting in an even bigger public debt blowout.
Second, as Keynes showed, it makes sense for the public sector to borrow from households and businesses at a time when they have cut their spending, and to give the borrowed funds to help those businesses and individuals that need help.
Third, the support programs won’t cause a permanent step jump higher in public spending.
Fourth, Australia’s starting point for net public debt was low at 23% of GDP compared with other advanced countries averaging 83%. See the next chart. And even with projected budget deficits it will remain relatively s
mall.
The hit to the economy will mean a hit to government revenue and this is shown in the line called “parameter changes”. Budget data released for the period to May suggests that this has been running at just over $10bn a month since March.
The Government has already announced significant policy support and this is shown in the line “stimulus so far”. We have allowed for the three policy support packages in March, the health package and industry support packages. These are dominated by JobKeeper now estimated to cost $70bn.
However, the need for additional support for the economy has also been recognised by the Government. As a result, in its 23 July economic statement we are likely to see:
An extension of JobKeeper – although it’s likely to be revamped with a monthly eligibility test and different pay rates and companies are likely to be discouraged from accessing it for jobs that won’t be revived;
The doubled JobSeeker payment is likely to be pared back;
Income tax cuts due from 2022 may be brought forward;
Additional investment incentives; and More industry support packages.
The Government will partly fund extra support by taking JobKeeper from those who no longer need it, but the bulk will likely come from the $60bn saving already seen on JobKeeper, which we expect to be fully spent and then some (see “new stimulus”) although it may not all be announce next week.
As a result of the Government’s fiscal response and the hit to public revenue from the economic downturn, the budget deficit is expected to blow out from around $95bn for the past financial year to around $223bn this financial year before improving from 2021-22, as support programs phase down and the economy recovers. This would see the budget deficit as a share of GDP peak at around 11% of GDP in 2020-21, which would be its highest since World War 2. Spread over several years, this will add nearly 20% of GDP to Australia’s public debt. This raises two questions though: will it be enough? And can we afford it?
budget deficits it will remain relatively small.
Australian Federal budget deficit
Fifth, borrowing to finance the budget deficit is in Australian dollars and, with a current account balance, we are not dependent on foreign creditors risking a foreign currency crisis.
Sixth, the cost of Government borrowing is very low at less than 1% for ten years. This is partly being facilitated by the RBA buying bonds, but bond rates would be low anyway.
Finally, consider what would happen if “shock horror” the Government and the RBA agreed to cancel the bonds that the RBA owns? Apart from a lot of grinding teeth from some commentators the answer would be very little – the Government’s loss on its “investment” in the RBA would be offset by a reduction in liabilities. In other words, it’s not necessarily the case that all public debt has to be paid back if it’s owned by the central bank. For the technically minded, the limit to this would be if all the extra money that the central bank printed to buy the bonds causes inflation – but as Japan has seen, if there is lots of spare capacity, inflation is not an issue.
Concluding comment
With the private sector spending hit by coronavirus it makes sense for the Government to continue to help fill the breach and support the economy. The best approach to getting debt back down is to grow the economy aided by a reinvigorated economic reform agenda, but for a while government fiscal support will continue to be needed.
Dr Shane Oliver is head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital
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The fiscal cliff is more likely to be a fiscal slope: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In brighter news, there's been no COVID-19 community transmission to speak of in Australia this week...ex-Victoria. 
Unfortunately the Victorian government's shocking mismanagement of hotel quarantine means that there's now a potentially nasty second wave of the virus spreading exclusively in that state. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xOh3b4Tga-M/Xwn9wtOrb4I/AAAAAAAA25w/iEmfMiNIxQgg1LywLx57S7j_pky0hB5IQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV2.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="1424">
With another couple of hundred cases over the past 24 hours Victoria now has 1,124 active cases.  
Elsewhere local cases have essentially been running at zero all week, which is a great result. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eynQCsE-Zi4/Xwn9-8_aB4I/AAAAAAAA254/rYXy5NxU5lc1mZ-OaFR1YfceGXg9UYhsgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1409">
Victoria will now go into another lockdown, this time for at least six weeks, which is a disastrous hammer blow for the local economy. 
Auctions slump
Sydney recorded rock solid auction results on Saturday, with the median price of property sold under the hammer rising to $1,260,000. 
In Melbourne. however, auction success volumes and results have unsurprisingly begun to plummet as consumer confidence has been demolished by the lockdown announcement. Alas it's now only a matter of time before someone rolls out another 'tale of two cities headline'...sigh.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bS9hrg3w0aM/Xwn-fG6nTCI/AAAAAAAA26I/K1-zMVsC9cE0307sg6isljwJ2gh9q--YACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/AUc.jpg" width="640" height="132" data-original-height="142" data-original-width="681">
To date Melbourne's housing prices have fallen by about 3 per cent since April.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kOYG-7W4zJU/Xwn_kvtbqkI/AAAAAAAA26U/sEObUN7SdaYsMamI1aEtXuej2Lsf2vfMgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV3.jpg" width="640" height="354" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1447">
Look out below
I'm not usually in the business of making serious predictions, which are usually broad brush and often prove to be pointless.
But these sorts of auction results in Melbourne have normally been commensurate with something close to double digit pace declines in housing prices, and in all likelihood may point to a 10 to 20 per cent decline in Melbourne's market. Given that Greater Melbourne is Australia's second largest economic hub - and that it's long been accounting for such a significant share of growth - the decision to lock down for six weeks has all but cruelled the chance of a meaningful recovery any time soon. 
Research across half a century of historical data from the Bank of England has shown that falling house prices lead to fear of negative equity, falling confidence, and consumers declining to spend, borrow, or invest.
 If the Federal government wants to stand any chance of getting the Australian economy back on its feet this year the Treasurer should announce on July 23 a temporary stamp duty holiday for the remainder of 2020 (and fund the difference for the states by making use of bond yields at record lows).
Alternatively, and more sustainably, broaden the GST and raise the rate to 12.5 per cent. 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger 
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Melbourne lockdown kills chance for a meaningful property recovery: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
<div>Yet another inflation target miss was recorded for the June quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nothing too earth-shattering there - the target has consistently been missed for years - but this one was a real corker, with headline inflation down by -1.9 per cent in the June 2020 quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And now the annual inflation rate has also turned negative, which a true rarity.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Stated the ABS:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>'Since 1949, this was only the third time annual inflation has been negative. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The previous times were in 1962 and 1997-98.'</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Underlying inflation was pretty flat for the quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zkgBciXdxgs/XyE29Bo1OQI/AAAAAAAA3VE/jP62pSmF3WkjpTlN7WZf3iGlg6YJuvchQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/PW.jpg" width="640" height="126" data-original-height="135" data-original-width="683"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Grattan recently produced a fairly damning indexed chart showing how inflation would've tracked higher had the target been hit over the past five years versus the actuals, a period through which there's been a persistent output gap, weak wages growth, and oodles of spare labour force capacity. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>We're still getting no closer to the inflation target then. </div>
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GuyrxR0LcdU/XyE197Iof6I/AAAAAAAA3Us/7ilsxHD355ESAA7OgfmRuvoGqYN1PbStwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1361">
The main contributors to the weakness over the quarter included declining childcare and fuel prices.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jv2DrjN1hpA/XyE19w7O2II/AAAAAAAA3Uw/6gSiXaKog4syvMHwDoL7a3v4uZor3qU0wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="796" data-original-width="1348">
The CBD rental markets were hit with a swathe of Airbnb and student rentals in the June quarter, and the rental price index also turned negative year-on-year...for the first time ever. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xopSOfZK4aM/XyE2GoQgGHI/AAAAAAAA3U0/on8rPBYcHIwdFBDw-AA6TgZAGutBgM-8wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1427">
There will be something of a bounce in Q3 in some categories, and truthfully there weren't too many surprises here, but overall there's a long way to go before things recover.
<div>Detailed report as always from from James Foster here.</div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger 
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Annual inflation negative for the third time ever: Pete Wargent

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GUEST OBSERVER
 
Over the past week, we’ve seen a spike in the number of COVID-19 infections among health-care workers in Victoria.
This includes a doctor at Melbourne’s <a href="https://amp.theage.com.au/national/victoria/deeply-concerned-doctor-at-melbourne-hospital-tests-positive-to-coronavirus-20200708-p55a2p">St Vincent’s Hospital</a>, one staff member at <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-08/melbourne-hospital-and-aged-care-facilities-coronavirus-cases/12435286">Brunswick Private Hospital</a>, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/more-covid-19-outbreaks-detected-in-hospitals-as-er-chief-isolates-20200709-p55akg">nine staff members</a> from the emergency department at Melbourne’s Northern Hospital, and two nurses at the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/healthcare-workers-may-have-been-infected-in-staff-training-session-20200707-p559so">Royal Melbourne Hospital</a>.
Staff at several <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-victoria-covid19-clusters-melbourne-aged-care-facilities-altona-meadows/713ece5c-6e87-4eed-8cad-b5c6d4e410d0">aged care facilities</a> have also tested positive.
These cases have meant sending many health-care workers regarded as “close contacts” into home quarantine.
The Northern Hospital emergency department has reportedly had to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-06/melbourne-northern-hospital-staff-contract-coronavirus/12428336">divert patients elsewhere</a>, while Brunswick Private Hospital (where four patients tested positive too) is <a href="https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/brunswick-private-hospital-shut-as-four-patients-and-staff-member-test-positive-to-coronavirus/news-story/1fcb6e6e0587fe47c496ab7af78b1945">closed to new admissions</a>.
Keeping health-care workers COVID-free is critical to delivering care to those who need it during a pandemic. So as Victoria’s second wave rolls on, we need to consider what more we can do to protect our health workers.
Why might this be happening?
In the absence of a vaccine, subsequent waves of COVID-19 have always been a possibility.
Health-care workers tend not to contract COVID-19 <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/healthcare-workers-covid-19-most-contract-it-away-work">from patients</a>, as appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE) is used in high risk encounters.
But health-care workers are normal people commuting to work and living and interacting in communities. So it’s more likely <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/healthcare-workers-covid-19-most-contract-it-away-work">they contract it outside work</a>.
Undetected, they can then bring it into the hospital or other health-care setting, putting fellow staff and vulnerable patients at risk.
What are the implications for health care?
At the most basic level, the specialised health-care workforce is core to health-care delivery; without nurses, doctors and allied health staff, there’s no health-care system.
Infections in this group — whether confirmed outbreaks or suspected contamination —will reduce health-care workforce capacity.
High rates of staff off work due to COVID-19 may also increase fatigue and burnout in the remaining workforce, adding to the burden.
The greater the scope of these outbreaks, the greater the strain on the affected hospitals and the health-care system. This will be compounded as they’re faced with increased demand due to COVID-19 cases in the community.
Australia has had time to prepare its workforce with additional skills and capabilities in critical care. But there are always concerns regarding potential <a href="https://www.pwc.com.au/important-problems/coronavirus-covid-19/australian-healthcare-workforce">workforce shortages in the height of a pandemic</a>, particularly in areas of specialised practice such as intensive care.
Especially in “hotspots”, as we weather this second wave, there remains a risk demand could outweigh supply.
What can the health system do to cope?
A number of possible interventions could increase system capacity and help manage demand.
This may include decreasing elective or non-urgent surgery, as we saw during the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-coronavirus-ban-on-elective-surgeries-might-show-us-many-people-can-avoid-going-under-the-knife-135325">first wave</a> of the virus.
Increasing the use of virtual models of care including <a href="https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD007228.pub3/full">phone consultations and telehealth</a>, where appropriate, could also help ease the pressure. Quarantined frontline workers could provide virtual care through telephone support, such as helplines or other telehealth services.
Adapting care to minimise the movement and interaction of hospital staff across wards and sites is another important option. For example, some hospitals have shifted from a model where a team of doctors works across multiple wards to a small team of doctors providing care to only one ward.
Most hospitals have also set-up dedicated <a href="https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1272399/retrieve">COVID wards</a> to screen patients for COVID-19 at the first point of contact with the health system.
What about routine testing for health workers?
To sustain a prolonged response to this crisis we need a healthy, COVID-19 free workforce. Especially given we know many positive cases <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7078829/">don’t experience symptoms</a>, we should be <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30917-X/fulltext">mass testing health-care workers</a>.
To date, we’ve seen some testing of <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/major-coronavirus-testing-blitz-targets-100000/">asymptomatic health-care workers</a> in Victoria, but it has not been commonplace.
Increased routine screening of health-care workers, with or without suspected exposure, will increase the number of days away from work while staff wait for results, reducing service capacity. But the pay-off will be greater — it will limit COVID-19 spread.
Keeping our health-care heroes safe and well
From this week, staff at several major Melbourne hospitals have been required to wear masks <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/changing-circumstances-melbourne-hospital-workers-told-to-don-masks-20200707-p559qw">at all times</a> while at work. These precautions have previously been reserved for staff in areas of higher clinical risk such as emergency and intensive care.
This is in addition to a range of <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-advice-for-the-health-and-aged-care-sector/providing-health-care-face-to-face-during-covid-19">guidelines</a> health professionals follow to minimise the spread of COVID-19, including around hand hygiene, cleaning, PPE, and keeping physical distance from patients where possible.
But the responsibility to take precautions and stop the spread falls to all of us.
Hospital patients and visitors are also being encouraged to wear face masks.
In fact, everyone in Melbourne is now advised to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-10/coronavirus-wearing-mask-advice-to-change-on-vic-covid19-threat/12441828">wear a mask</a> in public when social distancing is not possible. Hopefully this will go some way to protecting our health-care workers and the entire community.

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rochelle-wynne-998483">Rochelle Wynne</a>, Director, Western Sydney Nursing &amp; Midwifery Research Centre, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/western-sydney-university-1092">Western Sydney University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/caleb-ferguson-72">Caleb Ferguson</a>, Senior Research Fellow, Western Sydney Nursing &amp; Midwifery Research Centre, Western Sydney Local Health District &amp;, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/western-sydney-university-1092">Western Sydney University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/rising-coronavirus-cases-among-victorian-health-workers-could-threaten-our-pandemic-response-142375">original article</a>.
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Rising coronavirus cases among Victorian health workers could threaten our pandemic response

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Regional Queensland has achieved something that few jurisdictions across Australia have managed: it has maintained its previous high levels of well-performing markets in defiance of Covid-19.
Hotspotting’s Winter 2020 survey of sales activity has identified 54 growth markets and 30 consistency markets, down only marginally on the results of the previous (Autumn 2020) survey, which found 55 growth locations and 34 consistency ones. This was the strongest performance by Regional Queensland in three years and the results of this latest survey are only slightly inferior.
The number of “declining” markets has reduced (from 12 to six to four in recent surveys) and there are now few danger markets in Regional Queensland outside of the perennial struggler, Mount Isa.
Compared to the Covid-inspired deterioration in the results of other major jurisdictions across the nation, this is a commendable performance – and provides further evidence that regional areas have done much better in the pandemic period than the biggest capital cities.
The well-performing markets include Townsville, Mackay, Rockhampton, Hervey Bay, Gympie and Toowoomba, as well as the Regional Queensland heavyweights, the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast.
In addition, we have seen further evidence of recovery in the Gladstone market, after multiple years in decline.
We continue to rate the Sunshine Coast one of the strongest economic and real estate stories in the nation and it has produced another solid result in this winter survey. The Sunshine Coast Regional Council area and neighbouring Noosa Shire have 11 suburbs with rising sales activity and eight others with consistent sales performance. There are also a number of locations which have delivered strong price growth in the past 12 months.
Nearby Gympie has a number of growth locations and is poised for a sustained period of growth, given major infrastructure projects and its improved links to the boom Sunshine Coast economy.
Sales activity overall in Gold Coast City has declined, unsurprisingly given the impact of Covid-19 on an economy so heavily reliant on tourism. This is reflected in the 35 suburbs with plateau markets. Nevertheless, there remain 10 suburbs with rising sales activity.
There are solid performers spread across Queensland, stretching from Townsville in the far north to more southerly locations like Hervey Bay and the inland city of Toowoomba.
Townsville has five suburbs with growing sales and, boosted by major infrastructure projects, is poised for a recovery from the previous downturn.
Mackay, a growth market we have noted in previous surveys, also has five growth suburbs and has a number of locations delivering strong price growth. Sales in South Mackay have been 20-27-35-34-52 in the past five quarters, a pattern which had led to strong price growth recently.
Rockhampton is showing increasing signs of revival, with four growth suburbs and three with consistent sales performance. The suburb of Berserker has lifted quarterly sales from 21 to 31 to 33 to 43 in the past year. Frenchville and Gracemere display similar growth patterns.
The Fraser Coast, based on Hervey Bay, is showing increasing signs of a growth phase, with five suburbs with growing buyer demand.
Toowoomba, after several years of moderate activity, is showing symptoms of a rising market, with three growth and four consistency suburbs.
The one disappointing result comes from Cairns, which stood out strongly in the previous Autumn survey as a rising market with nine growth suburbs. But this Winter survey finds only two growth suburbs, with sales in most Cairns suburbs falling away recently. This is an economy strong reliant on tourism, including international visitors, which has taken a serious hit from Covid-19.
Regional Queensland has also performed well on price growth. Six out of 10 locations have produced some level of growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months and most of those where prices have declined have done so only marginally.
The Sunshine Coast has a number of strong performers with annual price growth, led by Warana (19%), Minyama (16%) and Noosa Heads (11%).
The Gold Coast also has a number of growth locations, including Runaway Bay (18%), Worongary (15%), Palm Beach (11%) and Mermaid Waters (10%).
Mackay has some outstanding performers, including South Mackay (16%), Blacks Beach (14%) and Bucasia (10%).
I’ve previously noted the revival signs in Gladstone, with vacancies down and rents rising. We are now seeing evidence of prices rising, although from a low base. West Gladstone is up 16% and Glen Eden 23% in annual terms, while Calliope, New Auckland and Tannum Sands have all risen 8-9% in the past year.
Other resources-related locations where prices are rising from low bases include Moranbah (up 19%, but still only with a median of $240,000) and Blackwater (up 45%, but with typical houses still worth only $130,000).
Emerald is headed back to growth, with quarterly sales of 50-56-59-63-72 in the past five quarters.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Regional Queensland market maintained strong performance despite COVID

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Melbourne’s clearance rate dipped to 46 per cent at the weekend after the return to stage three restrictions.
There were 417 scheduled auctions but just 168 results reported to Domain.
Some 149 properties were withdrawn from auction.
It was 57 per cent on the prior weekend.
The Victorian current rules end August 19.
"Melbourne’s weekend auction market tracked sharply backwards at the weekend with predictably significant withdrawals dragging down the clearance rate to its lowest point since early May," Dr Andrew Wilson at My Housing Market said.  "Although the Melbourne market suffered dramatically from the reinstatement of the coronavirus lockdown this week, other capitals continued to perform solidly overall," he noted.
The number of properties selling before auction, rather than under the hammer, is on rise across Sydney.
Sydney’s preliminary clearance rate was 64 per cent, jumping from last week’s 62 per cent, after 452 scheduled auctions and 255 reported results. 
It included 67 auctions withdrawn across the city.
The top sale was the five-bedroom, double-storey home at 3/85 Raglan Street, Mosman (pictured in title) for $4.55 million through Belle Property agent Stefan Bertram.
The dearest in Melbourne was $2,802,500 in Carlton. The 1018 Drummond Street offering was a four bedroom house. 
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Melbourne’s clearance rate dips to 46 per cent after return to stage three restrictions

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The number of loans to owner occupiers for established homes fell by 9.1 per cent during May 2020 to the lowest monthly level on record.
Today’s Housing Finance data does not reflect the impact of HomeBuilder program announced in June. We don’t expect to see the positive impact of HomeBuilder reflected in Housing Finance data for a number of months.
This month’s data reflects the peak of the COVID-19 related shutdown and likely includes reduced demand for existing homes and the slower processing of applications.
Due to the lag between submitting a finance application and gaining approval, we anticipate that this is only the beginning of negative finance and construction data from the ABS.
Data shows that loans for the purchase or construction of a new dwelling held on relatively well. This reflects the longer timeframe between purchasing a new dwelling and gaining access to finance.
First home buyers fell by 9.3 per cent during May, led by a decline of 18.8 per cent in New South Wales. This is not surprising given the level of risk aversion and lack of equity within this cohort.
There was a surge in re-financing during the month, to the highest level on record, as households took advantage of record low interest rates.
It is difficult to draw conclusions from this data other than there has been a material disruption to the housing market.
HomeBuilder along with other state incentives and an easing of restrictions will assist in bringing consumers who delayed their purchasing decisions back to the market. This will minimise the adverse impact of the COVID-19 shock on employment in the homebuilding sector, but this will not be reflected in ABS data for some months. 
HIA New Home Sales for June, will be the first indicator of the impact of HomeBuilder on the housing market. 
Across the states, the value of loans to owner-occupiers (excluding refinancing) during the three months to May 2020 was significantly lower than the previous three months in Western Australia (-14.6 per cent), Queensland (-12.9 per cent), the Northern Territory (-7.4 per cent) and South Australia (-7.0 per cent). Tasmania (-4.8 per cent), Victoria (-3.1 per cent) and the ACT (-3.1 per cent) also recorded declines. New South Wales was relatively flat, declining by 0.5 per cent over the same period.
TIM REARDON is the HIA Chief Economist
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Record housing finance data reflects COVID-19 shock: HIA's Tim Reardon

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Unit rentals have experienced the biggest price drop in more than 15 years, marking a historic rent price fall of 3.2% (equivalent to $15 per week) over the June quarter, according to the latest Domain Rental Report.
House and unit rental prices fell across most major cities, illustrating that no city was immune from the impact of coronavirus.
Sydney and Hobart unit rentals were hardest hit — both recorded the steepest quarterly fall on record.
Melbourne’s inner-city areas also saw large downturns.
Sydney’s median rental cost for units fell 3.8% to $500 per week.
Melbourne’s median rental cost for units fell 3.5% to $415.
Brisbane’s median rental cost for units fell 1.3% to $380.
Adelaide’s median rental cost for units stayed steady, with no month-on-month change from the previous quarter’s $320 per week figure.
Perth’s median rental cost for units also stayed steady, with no month-on-month change from the previous quarter’s $320 per week figure.
Hobart’s median rental cost fell further than any other major city, seeing a mammoth 8.4% fall in prices down to $380 per week.
Canberra’s median rental cost for units fell 2.1% to $470 per week.
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