<p data-end="256" data-start="0"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sunland-group">Sunland Group</a> has officially lodged plans for its first Gold Coast apartment project since the departure of the Abedian family from the company three years ago, unveiling a new high-rise proposal for a prominent Broadbeach corner site on Old Burleigh Road.</p>

<p data-end="446" data-start="258">The application was submitted by an entity directed by Tom Jamieson, stepson of longtime Sunland leader Soheil Abedian, and Riaz Rezvanipour, brother-in-law of Sahba Abedian, Soheil’s son.</p>

<p data-end="645" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="448">Sunland acquired the 1,283 sqm site on the corner of Old Burleigh Road and Armrick Avenue for $9.5 million late last year and is now seeking approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/99-101-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">42-storey tower with 81 apartments</a>.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fea2946d-90ee-4cfc-babe-2a8ad5db2cb6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers.png?VersionId=BV0fihJw31nDIQ8ozY_h3GbS8mxDyhnm" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/contreras-earl-architecture">Contreras Earl Architecture</a>, the proposed tower at 99-101 Old Burleigh Road would deliver a predominantly larger-format apartment mix aimed at the owner-occupier market. Plans include 17 two-bedroom apartments, 55 three-bedroom apartments, and nine four-bedroom residences across 35 residential levels.</p>

<p>The development also incorporates three basement levels, four podium parking levels, two levels of communal recreation facilities, and rooftop plant and equipment. A total of 189 car spaces are proposed, significantly exceeding the 90 spaces required under the planning scheme.</p>

<p>The architecture adopts a sculpted, curvilinear form, with deep wraparound balconies and integrated landscaping intended to soften the tower’s vertical expression. The planning report states the building’s “slender footprint/form provides a complimentary yet varied built form within the local streetscape” and contributes to “a varied, yet ordered skyline.”</p>

<p data-end="626" data-start="350">Contreras Earl noted in its Architectural Statement that from the early stages, the project addressed a fundamental challenge: how to accommodate the required residential yield while avoiding the conventional model of a tower sitting on a rigid, fully resolved parking podium.</p>

<p data-end="928" data-start="628">“The most direct response would have been to consolidate parking into a singular, flat podium and extrude a repetitive tower above,” the statement said. “While efficient, this approach would result in a consolidated built form with limited engagement with the surrounding landscape and public realm.”</p>

<p data-end="1147" data-start="930">Instead, the conventional podium model was “deliberately rejected”. The architects described the base of the building as “a landscaped architectural condition where structure, planting and circulation are integrated”.</p>

<p data-end="1510" data-start="1149">“Rather than presenting a continuous built mass, the base of the building is articulated through a series of concrete planter elements that organise the podium into a fragmented system,” the statement said. “This approach reduces the perceived bulk of the lower levels while establishing a more permeable interface with the streetscape and adjacent open space.”</p>

<p data-end="1510" data-start="1149"><img alt="Sunland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="923fad8d-c960-4527-8fbe-975cf1ddf88d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%2010.32.03%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pngwb0hYOIUpq9vDw6F2EsOiVuHF3DiX" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The site sits within the High Density Residential Zone and inside the City of Gold Coast’s unrestricted “HX” building height area, where the planning framework anticipates intensified residential development tied to the expanding light rail corridor. The planning report notes the area is undergoing “transition toward more intense development forms” given its proximity to Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise, and high-frequency public transport infrastructure.</p>

<p>Positioned directly opposite Broadbeach Park and within walking distance of Florida Gardens light rail station, the development would sit among a rapidly evolving stretch of Old Burleigh Road that has become one of the Gold Coast’s most active apartment development corridors.</p>

<p>The application joins a growing pipeline of luxury residential projects reshaping Broadbeach, including nearby developments by 5Point Projects, Polycell, and Graya.</p>

<p>The planning report argues the project contributes toward the Gold Coast’s long-term housing targets under the South East Queensland Regional Plan, which forecasts the need for more than 100,000 additional high-rise dwellings across the city by 2046.</p>

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-4" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" dir="auto">
<p data-end="305" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">The Abedian family departed Sunland Group in late 2023, ending a four-decade association with the company, and subsequently established the private development firm Abedian &amp; Co. The group is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/greenmount-residences-cnr-hill-street-and-marine-parade-coolangatta-qld-4225">Greenmount Residences</a> at Rainbow Bay and recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/18-mary-avenue-14-18-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">18 Mary Avenue</a> in Broadbeach.</p>
</section>


Joel Robinson

First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach new apartment market with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans

<p style="text-align:start">The Minns Labor Government has established the new Bays West Delivery Authority to lead the development&nbsp;of the Bays West Precinct and Blackwattle Bay Precinct.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Authority is charged with creating Sydney’s newest precinct, a thriving, connected, sustainable hub with White Bay Power Station as its cultural heart. Its vision is to build on the area’s natural, cultural and industrial history to shape a vibrant new neighbourhood.</p>

<p>The precinct will deliver up to 8,500 well-located homes, including a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes. Combine new housing with public open space, opening public access to the waterfront for the first time in more than 100 years, while retaining important deep-water facilities to support Sydney’s working harbour.</p>

<p>Located just minutes from the Sydney CBD and connected to a world-class metro, ferry, walking and cycling links, the Bays West precinct will rebalance housing growth towards well-serviced inner-city locations and help tackle the state’s housing crisis.</p>

<p>The Bays West Delivery Authority,&nbsp;an agency of the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, will report to the NSW Minister for Lands and Property who already has oversight of major precinct renewal projects including at Blackwattle Bay and Barangaroo.</p>

<p>As part of the broader Bays West transformation, the Minns Government recently announced that a proposal from Lendlease to redevelop part of the Bays West Precinct has progressed to Stage 2 of the NSW Government’s unsolicited proposals process.</p>

<p><img alt="Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2ed71eb9-d8e8-4fa7-b9d1-de4531dcf2f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%209.42.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=IDryFIbped9SNDg72LEN_EecvhUsOPvp" /></p>

<p>The Minns Labor Government has also confirmed the Bays West precinct will have a new suburb name. This will be the first major suburb built in close proximity to Sydney’s CBD in decades and will encompass the area currently being referred to as Bays West, including Glebe Island and the White Bay Power Station. Served by a new Metro station just five minutes from the CBD, it will become one of the most populous suburbs in the Inner West and one of Sydney’s premier cultural destinations.</p>

<p>An early works program is taking shape, which&nbsp;includes the first stages of an international design competition.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The aim of the Bays West&nbsp;International&nbsp;Design Competition is to&nbsp;ensure design excellence is embedded in the project from the start. The competition will deliver an&nbsp;urban framework that defines the character, ambition and long-term identity of&nbsp;this&nbsp;former industrial precinct as it transitions to a vibrant, inclusive and sustainable residential&nbsp;neighbourhood.</p>

<p>The competition will be led by the Bays West Delivery Authority in partnership with Government Architect NSW.&nbsp;</p>

<p>It will launch with an invitation for a global Expressions of Interest, before moving to an invitation-only stage that will be assessed by a panel that&nbsp;will provide advice to Cabinet who will select a winner.</p>

<p>Premier of NSW, Chris Minns said the establishment of the new Authority is the first step in transforming the Bays West precinct into a vibrant, livable suburb minutes from the Sydney CBD and two stops from Hunter St Station on the Metro West line.</p>

<p>“The Authority will deliver well-located homes close to the heart of the city and integrate the new precinct with Blackwattle Bay and the new Sydney Fish Market.</p>

<p>“This is a generational opportunity to build a new suburb on the city’s edge and open the harbour foreshore to the public for the first time in a century.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Minister for Lands and Property Steve Kamper said the new Bays West Delivery Authority established by the Minns Government will turbocharge the development of Sydney’s newest suburb.</p>

<p>“The Authority is working at a record pace to deliver an international design competition, planning pathways and a financial model so that this development benefits Sydney with well-designed homes in a central location, close to public transport, jobs, entertainment and essential services.</p>

<p>“If we want Sydney to stay liveable and affordable, we need to be bold about using underutilised government-owned land to deliver homes for the future while making sure essential working harbour functions can be accommodated.”</p>


Bays West Delivery Authority established to "turbocharge" Sydney’s newest suburb

<p>Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.</p>

<p>A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.</p>

<p>Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.</p>

<p>“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.</p>

<p>Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.</p>

<p>“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.</p>

<p>The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.</p>

<p>It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.</p>

<p>The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.</p>

<p>One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.</p>

<p>Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.</p>

<p>The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.</p>

<p>Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.</p>

<p>Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.</p>

<p>Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.</p>

<p>“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”</p>

<p>Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.</p>

<p>Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.</p>

<p>Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.</p>


400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

<p>Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.</p>

<p>The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.</p>

<p>Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" /></p>

<p>“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.</p>

<p>The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”</p>

<p>The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" /></p>

<p>The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.</p>

<p>According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.</p>

<p>“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.</p>

<p>A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.</p>

<p>Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" /></p>

<p>All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.</p>

<p>The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.</p>


Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

<p>Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.</p>

<p>The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.</p>

<p>Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" /></p>

<p>Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.</p>

<p>The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.</p>

<p>"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.</p>

<p>The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.</p>

<p>The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" /></p>

<p>Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.</p>

<p>Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.</p>


First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Fitzroy apartments

COVID-19

<html><body>
<p>COVID-19 and the growing recession concentrated in the services sector will not just increase social inequality, but accelerate the growing spatial divide in our cities.</p>
<p>As our new research report shows, the pandemic’s impacts reinforce the ongoing trend towards the suburbanisation of inequality.</p>
<p class="legacy">There are two reasons for this. First, the industries vulnerable to the economic impacts of COVID-19 lockdowns rely heavily on low-wage, part-time employment. Second, the inner suburbs are home to the largest concentration of COVID-vulnerable workers.</p>
<p>If we do not act now, more people will get pushed out of inner areas rich in jobs and amenities to lower-cost outer suburbs with poor access to jobs and community services.</p>
<h2>Which industries and workers are vulnerable?</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.monash.edu/mada/research/navigating-economic-uncertainty-in-post-covid-cities" target="_blank">research</a> analyses where people employed in the industries most vulnerable to COVID-19 lockdowns live and the kind of work they do. We map vulnerable employment areas in all suburbs of Australia’s five largest capital cities. We then examine the characteristics of people in vulnerable employment living in all suburbs of Australia’s current coronavirus hotspot, metropolitan Melbourne.</p>
<p>We define vulnerable employment based on a detailed review of industries with one-third or more firms reporting <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/5676.0.55.003Main%20Features3Week%20Commencing%2030%20March%202020?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=5676.0.55.003&amp;issue=Week%20Commencing%2030%20March%202020&amp;num=&amp;view=" target="_blank">reduced worker hours</a> one week after the first COVID-19 lockdown (March 30 2020). These firms are mainly in the consumer, travel and community services sectors. They employ people working in accommodation and food, arts and entertainment, education, “non-essential” <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-16/coronavirus-leaves-medical-practices-on-verge-of-collapse/12359282" target="_blank">health care</a>, retail and transport.</p>
<p>We profile the characteristics of vulnerable workers in each of these sub-industries and by suburb. We classify suburbs (using <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Australian+Statistical+Geography+Standard+(ASGS)" target="_blank">SA2 level</a> data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics) by share of vulnerable employment based on the worker’s place of usual residence.</p>
<h2>Many at-risk workers live in inner suburbs</h2>
<p>As the map below shows, the largest shares of vulnerable workers live in Melbourne’s inner suburbs.</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349503/original/file-20200727-25-754ql2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349503/original/file-20200727-25-754ql2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a></p>
<p><span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: ABS (2016) Census data, by place of residence at SA2 level. Map by Declan Martin and Alexa Gower</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></p>
<p>Vulnerability levels clearly diminish moving outward from the city centre. In other words, many vulnerable workers live in some of the highest-rent suburbs.</p>
<p>On average, the share of vulnerable workers in the very high vulnerability suburbs is 32.2% of employed residents. The figure exceeds 40% in some of these areas.</p>
<h2>Workers likely to be forced to move</h2>
<p>Living in the inner suburbs, combined with the nature of their jobs, puts many COVID-vulnerable workers at high risk of displacement.</p>
<p>In the very high vulnerability suburbs, 47% of vulnerable workers are on low or very low incomes. And 54.3% work part-time (less than 38 hours a week). A large proportion (41.9%) are aged under 30 and about one-third are 30-44.</p>
<p>In fact, over half (53.5%) of the vulnerable workforce living in very high-vulnerability suburbs hold jobs in the most precarious, low-wage consumer services industries – accommodation and food services and retail and personal services. Another 30% work in arts, entertainment and education.</p>
<p>Suppressed consumer demand will not only have short-run employment impacts, but might permanently alter consumption patterns. The result would be enduring business closures and job losses for workers who live in these areas.</p>
<p>To make ends meet, many of those facing job loss and other employment pressures such as reduced hours will seek more affordable housing in the middle and outer suburbs.</p>
<p>However, although the outer areas are now home to the smallest proportion of vulnerable workers, the vulnerable workers that live there tend to be worse off. Just over 66% are on low or very low incomes and 60% work part-time.</p>
<p>As a result, the migration of COVID-vulnerable workers to the outer areas will add to the existing concentration of spatial inequality in Greater Melbourne.</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350533/original/file-20200731-77137-1yq48ho.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350533/original/file-20200731-77137-1yq48ho.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="Table showing demographic breakdown of vulnerable employment communities for each level of vulnerability"></a></p>
<p><span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: ABS 2016 Census data, by place of residence at the SA2 level</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></p>
<h2>What can be done about this?</h2>
<p>COVID-19 puts people working in low-end <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-coronavirus-recession-puts-service-workers-at-risk-134869" target="_blank">service jobs</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-3-in-4-australians-employed-in-the-creative-and-performing-arts-could-lose-their-jobs-136505" target="_blank">creative</a> and educational services at high risk of losing their jobs. Those who manage to live in the high-cost inner suburbs are now particularly vulnerable.</p>
<p>It is therefore crucial to expand rather than retract the JobKeeper and JobSeeker programs. Proposed cuts to JobSeeker are estimated to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/24/weekly-cut-of-150-to-jobseeker-coronavirus-supplement-will-throw-370000-australians-into-poverty" target="_blank">push 370,000 Australians into poverty</a>, 123,000 in Victoria alone. In tandem, we need interim policy in the rental housing market to defuse the impending “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/19/we-dont-know-how-many-time-bombs-are-ticking-australias-rent-deferral-debt-trap" target="_blank">rent bomb</a>” of tenants facing eviction if they can’t pay the accumulated debt of deferred rent.</p>
<p>Longer-term strategies are also needed. We must confront the reality that many service sector jobs will not return.</p>
<p>This requires investment in skills-building courses tied to strengthening the recovery of TAFEs and universities, particularly in areas like “essential manufacturing” – medical supplies, recycling, food – and communications technologies. <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/jobtrainer-skills-package-economic-recovery-and-growth" target="_blank">JobTrainer</a> is a good start.</p>
<p>Given the spatial dimensions of the crisis, place-based programs are crucial too. Preserving <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-ways-to-fix-the-problems-caused-by-rezoning-inner-city-industrial-land-for-mixed-use-apartments-121566" target="_blank">inner suburban industrial land</a> can play a significant role in small enterprise start-ups, firm expansion and job creation. Inner industrial districts provide a flexible mix of space that allows businesses to grow and add quality jobs in place.</p>
<p>At the same time, policymakers can better develop community infrastructure and employment hubs in the outer suburbs. Community hubs provide flexible, multipurpose spaces that cater to various community needs. These services range from youth, aged care and health facilities to collaborative workspaces and settings for workforce training providers.</p>
<p>While COVID-19 is clearly taking an immediate toll on the health and economies of our cities, we need a conversation about the longer-term impacts and responses.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143432/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/carl-grodach-403324" target="_blank">Carl Grodach</a>, Professor and Director of Urban Planning &amp; Design, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065" target="_blank">Monash University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-coronavirus-will-deepen-the-inequality-of-our-suburbs-143432" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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Why coronavirus will deepen the inequality of our suburbs

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<p><span>During these extraordinary times, NAB has taken the decision to publish aggregated customer data categorised by industry segment with the view to helping provide clarity around which segments of the economy have been most affected by the broader macroeconomic trends at play.</span></p>
<p><span> NAB takes data privacy very seriously. All customer transaction data has been aggregated and no individual’s data is specifically identified or analysed as part of this process. The data used in this report will not be sold or made publicly available, but insights from the data will be shared with the Australian people.</span></p>
<p><span>NAB’s latest Data Insights highlight a slowdown in consumption spending in recent weeks, with overall growth easing to 5.8 per cent y/y for the week ended July 18. Spending slowed in all states and territories (except SA/NT). It is now weakest in VIC (-0.7 per cent) with this result heavily influenced by lockdown in metropolitan Melbourne. NSW is also weakening faster than most. Relative to last year, overall spending growth slowed (or fell further) in all industries, but overall growth continues to be supported mainly by spending on Construction and Retail Trade.</span></p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/7/24/16_Consumption%20Spending%20by%20State.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: NAB Group Economics.</p>
<p><span>Payment inflows across all industries were flat (0.1 per cent) in the 4-weeks to July 18 (4-week average terms). Inflows are still falling heaviest for corporates. By industry, they were down most in Mining, Transport and Hospitality, and were strongest in Agriculture, Manufacturing, Retail Trade and Professional, Scientific &amp; Technical Services.</span></p>
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<div class="column">NAB’s latest Data Insights point to a slowdown in consumption spending in recent weeks, with overall growth easing to 5.8 per cent y/y in the week ending July 18 (9.8 per cent in the previous week), but still roughly at levels seen in late-February.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Consumption spending eased in all states except SA/NT (8.9 per cent). It fell sharply in VIC, which is now the only state showing a negative result (-0.7 per cent). This spending hit was driven by sharp falls in lockdown areas (-3.6 per cent), with non-lockdown areas still growing by more than 8 per cent. Spending growth halved in NSW (6.1 per cent) compared to the previous week, and was strongest in the NT (19.6 per cent) and WA (12.5 per cent).</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Relative to last year, overall spending growth eased (or fell faster) in all industries. But overall growth continues to be underpinned mostly by spending on Construction (albeit slowing to 19.6 per cent from 39.9 per cent in the previous week) and Retail Trade (which also eased to 18.3 per cent from 25.1 per cent in the previous week). Spending on Hospitality (the biggest sector of the economy) fell 14.6 per cent (down 10.1 per cent last week). Spending on Administration &amp; Support Services is still very weak (-70.9 per cent), with sizeable falls also persisting in Transport, Postal &amp; Warehousing (-43.0 per cent) and Education &amp; Training (-22.6 per cent). </div>
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<div class="column"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/7/24/16_By%20Industry%201.jpg" alt="" style="caret-color: #000000; color: #000000;"></div>
<div class="column">Source: NAB Group Economics.</div>
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<div class="column">Payment inflows (in year-on-year 4-week moving average terms) were basically flat (0.1 per cent) for the 4 weeks ending July 18 compared to the same time last year, but improved from the previous week (-2.9 per cent). By business size, inflows grew in both large (5.0 per cent) and emerging (2.7 per cent) firms. Inflows into corporates however fell for the fourth straight week (-6.4 per cent), with smaller falls of around 21⁄2 per cent in both medium and small firms.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">By industry, payment inflows into Accommodation continue falling steeply (-16.5 per cent), although this was the slowest rate of decline seen since late-March. Inflows into Mining firms however turned down sharply (-26.9 per cent), with inflows into Transport, Postal &amp; Warehousing also still falling heavily (-16.6 per cent). Inflows into Education fell 4.6 per cent after falling 22.0 per cent in the previous week. Payment inflows were strongest into Agriculture (12.2 per cent), Manufacturing (11.4 per cent), Retail Trade (11.2 per cent) and Professional, Scientific &amp; Technical Services (10.0 per cent). </div>
<div class="column"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/7/24/16_By%20Industry%202.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="column">Source: NAB Group Economics.</div>
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Impacts of coronavirus on consumption based spending and business payment inflows: NAB

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div>
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<div>There was a resurgence in homebuyer finance in June, but not in Victoria, where finance commitments dropped sharply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unfortunately for Melbourne, this trend will only continue through July and August...and into September.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gF79nLAcUM4/XyoSdvUDgtI/AAAAAAAA3d0/0FQojubIv-c-xXccTfWU79gepvpeC7t5ACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1388"></div>
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<div>First homebuyer commitments zipped higher, but there was another sharp 9 per cent drop in Victoria, following on from a similar decline in the month of May.</div>
<div> </div>
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<div>Overall, stripping out refinancing housing finance jumped +6.2 per cent, despite Victoria's woes. </div>
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<div>The average mortgage size has been a bit all over the place of late, possibly due to there being more first homebuyers in the market. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFG's quarterly numbers showed a record high mortgage size in Q2, albeit only just.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Basically flat would be another way to describe the figures (and the same for the ABS data).  </div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SLMdAg1gUlc/XyoSeorD_JI/AAAAAAAA3eE/CmCCLxqbo2k84D06MWp6qUdpVhUXOASIACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/afg2.jpg" width="640" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1372"></div>
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<div>There was enormous strength in the average mortgage size in New South Wales, which hit a record high, but not so in Victoria. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Hc8xWagT5ig/XyoSeWzCIpI/AAAAAAAA3eA/nFg25VvGcW0_53ZOQT7J_FRHrrFBYfLeQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/afg.jpg" width="640" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1364"></div>
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<div>Overall, a decent rebound ex-Melbourne.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Note that this bounce was also before the HomeBuilder boom kicks in.</div>
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<div>New South Wales will also see a surge in activity up to $1 million resulting from the stamp duty discounts announced on July 27. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria recorded some 725 cases of COVID-19 over the past 24 hours, ensuring that the Stage 4 lockdown will almost certainly run for weeks to come. </div>
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<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><strong> </strong>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
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Homebuyers returning, but not in Victoria: Pete Wargent

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<p>Not every Australian housing market has performed the same way since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>The latest CoreLogic Home Value Index results revealed that since March, Melbourne property values fell 3.5%. Meanwhile, the ACT dwelling market reached a record high.</p>
<p>From June to July, the rate of decline eased across Perth from -1.1% to -0.6%, but deepened across Melbourne and Sydney.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/8/6/Cumulative%20CL.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>The chart above shows the varied trajectories of capital city markets from the end of March.</p>
<p>The end of March is a good place for dating the ‘start’ of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia, because Australia recorded its 100th case of COVID-19 on the 14th of the month, and the 25th of March saw the national rollout of stage 2 restrictions, which created much of the economic shock as business activity slowed.</p>
<p>Melbourne has so far seen the largest cumulative declines in property values since March (3.5%). This was led by a 5.2% decline across the Inner East region.</p>
<p>As has been explored in recent weeks, the steeper decline across the Melbourne market is two-fold. Cyclically, Melbourne property is subject to more volatile growth rates, and is also presenting strong declines off the back of very high growth rates through the previous upswing.</p>
<p>Structurally, there has been an enormous demand shock to the Melbourne property market with the closure of international borders, where Melbourne previously had the highest level of net overseas migration of the capital city markets. This is similar to the Sydney housing market, which received the second highest volume of net interstate migrants over 2018-19.</p>
<p>Victoria has also seen the largest decline in payroll jobs of the states and territories, according to ABS data. Conversely, the ACT has seen property value increases of 1.3% since March. While the performance of the ACT market may seem like an anomaly, the ACT dwelling market is one of the few markets performing as may be expected amid the record low cash rate setting.</p>
<p>RBA research has noted that reductions in the cash rate typically increase property values over time, because debt becomes cheaper and purchasing capacity increases.</p>
<p>However, it is still striking that 70% of food and accommodation employers reported a reduction in staff hours. Food and accommodation employs about 8% of Australians, or about 1.2 million people. This is where a more granular view of employment data can highlight risks to the property market.</p>
<p>The detailed quarterly survey data provides insight into what industry residents work in, at the SA4 level. The February edition suggests that most food and accommodation workers are highly concentrated in Sydney’s Inner West, followed by the Sunshine Coast and the Coffs Harbour-Grafton region.</p>
<p>This market has likely been buoyed by the relative stability in employment across sectors where workers are on higher incomes, and are more likely to be home owners or prospective buyers. For example, ABS payroll data shows the number of jobs across the financial and insurance industry in the ACT has actually increased 0.7% since the start of the pandemic.</p>
<p>A ‘two tiered’ state of the labour market is highlighted by the fact the ACT accommodation and food services sector has seen the largest rate of decline of the states and territories. This industry is more likely to be comprised of renters, and rental values have fallen half a percent across the ACT since March, with larger falls across the unit sector (-1.0%). Smaller housing markets have seen better capital growth results since March.</p>
<p>Adelaide is a relatively steady market that has traditionally not seen volatile movements in response to negative economic shocks. This may be partly to do with the relatively low level of investment activity across the market. CoreLogic estimates that the portion of dwellings across Adelaide that were owned by investors as of July 2020 was 28.9%, compared with 34.5% nationally. While Adelaide has seen modest growth during the pandemic, this has not traditionally been a market with strong capital growth returns.</p>
<p>Annualised growth across Adelaide dwellings over the past 10 years was 1.3%, compared with 3.0% across the combined capital cities market. It is also worth noting that while cumulative price changes show 4 of the 8 capital city markets have not declined in value since March, almost all markets are showing a slowdown in growth rates. This suggests that, as with past downturns, most housing markets will be subject to a downswing phase.</p>
<p><strong> What to expect going forward</strong></p>
<p>Looking forward, there are a variety of factors that will influence the outlook for home values. Of immediate concern is the steepening curve of the virus in Victoria.</p>
<p>Considering Victoria accounts for around one quarter of the nation’s economy, the stage four lockdown has already dampened both consumer and business sentiment nationally and the interruption to economic activity will deepen and lengthen Australia’s recession.</p>
<p>Cities where labour markets are more impacted are also likely to under-perform, as will those with more significant exposure to overseas migration as a source of housing demand.</p>
<p>As federal government fiscal support moves from around $18 billion per month to around $3 billion from October, housing market conditions will be tested more broadly; this is when we are likely to see a rise in the number of households facing financial distress and a lift in urgent sales.</p>
<p>The expiry of mortgage repayment holidays is another downside factor for the market. Pre-COVID, mortgage arrears remained around 1% of the mortgage book, but with unemployment expected to reach 10%, along with less fiscal support and an expectation that mortgagors taking a repayment holiday will need to face up to their debts by April next year, it’s reasonable to expect a sharp rise in mortgage arrears which could see a lift in distressed properties hitting the market. The RBA has previously noted for every 1 per cent rise in the unemployment rate, 90 day mortgage arrears generally increase by 80 basis points.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>If unemployment rises to 10%, that implies a 90 day mortgage arrears rate around 5%. Arguably, this may be an overstatement, considering weak labour market conditions are skewed to more casualised workers who tend to be renters rather than home owners.</p>
<p>The outlook for both the economy and housing markets remains extremely uncertain, but risk remains skewed to the downside.</p>
<p><strong>ELIZA OWEN </strong><em>is the</em><em> Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic</em></p>
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Why capital cities performed differently amid COVID-19: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The stubborn resistance of house prices to the negative forces on the pandemic, and the economic downturn it has created, is shown by the month by month data from CoreLogic – with the latest figures published today (3 August).</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">An analysis of the monthly figures for the past five months covering the pandemic period shows that - generally speaking - there has been a gradual deterioration in price outcomes. Looking at the average national result, house prices were up 0.7% in March, up by a smaller amount in April, down marginally in May, down by a larger amount in June and then a similar, though slightly better, result in July.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">But looking at the figures at a more local level shows that some locations have been more resilient than others. The latest figures show that half the market jurisdictions managed to produce some level of growth in their house prices during July.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The “jurisdictions” are the eight capital cities and the seven state or territory regional markets. Of those 15 jurisdictions, seven produced some level of growth in house prices in July. Remarkable in the circumstances.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Those figures illustrate a point I have making regularly in recent months: that regional markets are generally doing better than capital city markets.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In July, five of the seven regional jurisdictions produced house price growth, compared to two of the eight capital city markets.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The figures from the past five months deliver other important messages. One is that month-to-month figures can be highly erratic and we need to be careful about placing too much significance on one month’s results.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In Darwin, for example, house prices rose in April, fell in May, rose in June and fell in July (according to the CoreLogic data - other sources have different figures).</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In Hobart, house prices rose in March, fell in April, rose in May and June, then fell in July. Again, if you believe the CoreLogic figures.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Another message in the data is that we don’t have a single market in Australia. We have many different markets with different outcomes from one market to the next.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">That’s an important point because media will report that Australian property prices fell in July, when in reality there were price rises in Canberra, Adelaide and five regional jurisdictions. Again, according to these figures.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Looking at the longer-term patterns, some markets stand out for their consistency and strong resistance to the national economic forces.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Canberra has delivered some level of growth in each of the past five months. This tends to confirm our view that the national capital is the most Covid-proof city in the nation.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Adelaide has also shown great consistency, with small rises in four of the past five months, including in July. This confirms my positive opinion about the solidity of this under-rated city.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Two of the regional markets, South Australia and Tasmania, have delivered price growth in all of the past five months. And two others - NSW and Queensland - have achieved growth in four of the past five months, including during July.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1">Central message: prices have not collapsed anywhere and some places continue to grow.</span></p>
<p class="p3">It’s a different message to one delivered by mainstream media. One major newspaper has reacted to the latest figures with the claim that they show that house prices are “plunging” right across Australia.</p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1">Nothing of the sort is happening.</span> </p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1">The CoreLogic figures indicate that house prices are higher than they were a year ago in 11 of the 15 market jurisdictions.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1">That simple truth demonstrates that the forecasts back in March-April of a dramatic and immediate collapse of house prices was sensationalist nonsense.</span></p>
<p class="p3"> </p>
<p class="p4">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p5"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></p>
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Australian house prices resilient in COVID-19 downturn: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p>A dozen COVID-19 infections have emerged at the Melbourne residential high-rise tower construction site.</p>
<p>The Victorian Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) notified construction company Multiplex of 12 cases at the Multiplex Premier Apartments site at 134-160 Spencer St, Melbourne.</p>
<p>Construction at the $315 million Premier Tower in Melbourne has been halted following the emergence of the COVID-19 cases.<br>Multiplex management and the unions involved have agreed to a full site shut down.</p>
<p>The site has undergone a ‘hospital grade’ clean.</p>
<p>Multiplex recently celebrated the topping out of the 79-level Fragrance Group tower that will have 172 hotel rooms plus 796 apartments that replaced the Savoy Tavern.</p>
<p class="selectionShareable"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/11/Beyonce%202.jpg" alt=""></p>
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<p class="selectionShareable">The building that stands at 246m above the Spencer and Bourke street corner saw some 35,000 cubic metres of concrete poured.</p>
<p>It had secured 60% off the plan pre-sales in its 2015 stage one launch with a selection of one bedroom, one bedroom-plus-study and two bedroom configurations.</p>
<p>Around half went to offshore buyers seemingly galvanised by the new Victorian Government stamp duty on foreign buyers that began July 1.  </p>
<p>There will also be a boutique hotel housed in the podium levels hosting 175 rooms. </p>
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COVID-19 infections hit Melbourne's Beyonce inspired tower construction site

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<p><strong>Expert Observation by Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital</strong></p>
<p><strong>Introduction</strong></p>
<p><span>This economic and fiscal update is the first since December</span><span>’s </span><span>Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook when budget surpluses looked just around the corner. Since then things have changed dramatically due to the hit from coronavirus and necessary support measures from the Government.</span></p>
<p><strong>Policy stimulus</strong></p>
<p><span>The statement provided no new policy stimulus measures beyond those that have been announced in the last two weeks:</span></p>
<ul>
<li>
<p><span>$2bn in spending on subsidies for apprentices &amp; JobTrainer;</span></p>
</li>
<li>An estimated $16bn to extend JobKeeper to March next year but with payments stepping down to $1200 and then $1000 a fortnight for those who worked 20 hours or more per week in February and to $750 and then $650 for others and businesses having to meet the turnover reduction test at the end of the September and December quarters to keep receiving it; and</li>
<li>An estimated $3.8bn to extend the JobSeeker Supplement to December at the pared back rate of $250 a fortnight.</li>
</ul>
<p>This additional $22bn in spending along with prior coronavirus- related economic support (in the form of actual spending, tax breaks and health measures) takes the COVID-19 response package to nearly $174bn. JobKeeper is the main element in this, but it also includes the JobSeeker supplement, payments to businesses and payments to eligible households. There is also loans &amp; guarantee support (from the government and RBA) worth $125bn or just over 6% of GDP.</p>
<p>Proposals to bring forward the tax cuts and provide additional investment incentives look to have been pushed out to the October budget and additional industry support packages are also likely. The Government may have delayed this extra stimulus to gauge how much additional help will be required with a lot riding on how quickly the latest outbreak of coronavirus is brought back under control. Spreading out the announcement of new stimulus measures may also get more bang for the buck in terms of the boost to confidence. </p>
<p><strong>Economic assumptions </strong></p>
<p>The Government is forecasting the economy to contract this financial year by -2.5 per cent, its biggest financial year contraction since 1946-47. But this masks a "record" -7 per cent contraction in June quarter GDP and a gradual recovery from the second half of this year. The Government is a bit more optimistic than we are in terms of economic growth and unemployment. </p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/24/27_Economic%20Assumptions.png" alt=""></p>
<p><strong>Budget deficit projections </strong></p>
<p>The Government's revised budget projections and our own are shown below. These should be treated with greater than normal caution given the uncertain economic outlook. </p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/24/27_Budgets.png" alt=""></p>
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<p><span>The hit to the economy and hence revenue and expenditure since the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook last December is huge at $72bn for this financial year and is shown in the line called </span><span>“parameter changes”</span><span>. It should gradually start to diminish as the economy recovers. Policy stimulus (mainly due to the coronavirus response but also other things) since last December is shown in the line labelled </span><span>“</span><span>Total </span><span>stimulus”.</span></p>
<p><span>As a result of </span><span>the Government’s fiscal response </span><span>and the hit to revenue from the economic downturn, the Government projects the budget deficit to further blow out from around $86bn for the past financial year to a record $184.5bn this financial year.</span></p>
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<p><span>While it does not provide projections beyond this financial year the implication is that the deficit will decline in future years as support programs phase down and the economy recovers. On the Governme</span><span>nt’s projections t</span><span>his would see the budget deficit as a share of GDP peak at around 9.7% of GDP in 2020-21, which would be its highest since World War 2. We continue to see a bigger deficit for this financial year of around $220bn reflecting both a bigger hit to revenue and additional stimulus of around $17bn to be announced in the months ahead, including in the October budget. This is likely to include the bring forward of the 2022 tax cuts, more investment incentives and more industry support programs. The budget deficit blow-out will add about 20 per cent of GDP to public debt out to 2022. </span></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/7/24/27_Deficit%20.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><strong>Assessment</strong></p>
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<p><span>The additional $22bn in stimulus announced over the last two weeks is welcome and will help turn the fiscal cliff in October into a fiscal slope. The boost to stimulus announced in the last two weeks takes Australia</span><span>’s total level of </span><span>coronavirus related fiscal stimulus (excluding loans and guarantees) this year up to 8.7% of GDP, which is well and truly at the high end of comparable countries. This should aid the economic recovery.</span></p>
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<p><span>However, </span><span>it’s </span><span>doubtful that this will be enough given the long tail of unemployment flowing from the coronavirus shock. We estimate that were it not for JobKeeper and people leaving the workforce the effective unemployment rate would currently be 11.3%, which is well above the official measured rate of 7.4%. This has fallen from 14.8% in April thanks to the reopening of the economy, but with the threat to the recovery posed by the second wave of cases in Victoria and the lockdown in Melbourne and the risk of a flow on to NSW, effective unemployment may only fall to around 10% or so by September and maybe 9% or more going into next year, so continued income support is essential. The Government</span><span>’s </span><span>focus now shifts to economic reforms in the October budget and this is likely to include even more fiscal support, as noted earlier.</span></p>
<p><span>Our assessment remains that the blow out in the budget deficit is affordable. First, </span><span>it’s </span><span>absolutely necessary as were it not for the support measures the economic hit would be far greater.</span></p>
<p><span>Second, it makes sense for the public sector to borrow from households and businesses at a time when they have cut their spending, and to give the borrowed funds to help those businesses and individuals that need help.</span></p>
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<p><span>Third, the support programs are targeted at current needs so </span><span>shouldn’t lead to </span><span>permanently higher government spending.</span></p>
<p><span>Fourth</span><span>, Australia’s </span><span>starting point for net public debt last year was low at 23% of GDP compared with other advanced countries averaging 83%. See the next chart. And even with </span>projected budget deficits it will remain relatively small.</p>
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<p><span>Fifth, borrowing to finance the budget deficit is in Australian dollars and we are not dependent on foreign creditors, so we </span><span>are not vulnerable to a “foreign currency crisis</span><span>.</span><span>”</span></p>
<p><span>Finally, the cost of Government borrowing is very low at around 0.85% for ten years and 0.25% for three years.</span></p>
<p><strong>Implications for the RBA</strong></p>
<p><span>Ongoing Government support for households and businesses is not enough to change our assessment that the RBA will need to keep cash rate near zero for years ahead and possibly need to undertake more quantitative easing in the face of ongoing spare capacity in the economy and below target inflation.</span></p>
<p><strong>Implications for Australian assets</strong></p>
<p><span>Cash and term deposits </span><span>– </span><span>with the cash rate unlikely to rise from 0.25% for years, returns from cash and bank term deposits will remain low for a long time to come. That said the budget stimulus and increase in money supply holds out at the prospect that at some point inflation and interest rates will rise. But it</span><span>’</span><span>s probably at least three years away.</span></p>
<p><strong>Bonds </strong><span>– </span><span>the surge in public debt and bond supply would all other things being equal, point to higher bond yields, but this is offset by massive spare capacity, low private sector borrowing, very low inflation and the cash rate capped at 0.25% for years it</span><span>’</span><span>s hard to see a lot of upside in bonds yields. That said, if coronavirus comes under control it</span><span>’</span><span>s hard to see a lot of downside either so medium-term bond returns are likely to be low.</span></p>
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<p><strong>Shares </strong><span>– </span><span>the addition of extra policy stimulus further helps to offset the hit from coronavirus and adds to confidence that growth will recover which is supportive of shares.</span></p>
<p><strong>Property </strong><span>– </span><span>ongoing income support is continuing to help the property market avoid a sharp fall in home prices but the negatives around high effective unemployment, the weak rental market and the collapse in immigration point to ongoing falls in prices into next year, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>The $A</strong> </span><span>– </span><span>ongoing fiscal stimulus at the high end of comparable countries coming at a time of rising commodity prices and a declining US dollar point to more upside for the $A.</span></p>
<p><strong>Concluding comment</strong></p>
<p><span>With private sector spending hit by coronavirus it makes sense for the Government to continue to help fill the breach and support the economy. The best approach to getting debt back down is to grow the economy aided by a reinvigorated economic reform agenda, but for a while yet government fiscal support will continue to be needed.</span></p>
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Australian economic and fiscal update – record budget deficits, but more to come

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<p>First home buyers and the construction industry will benefit greatly from the elimination of stamp duty on newly-built homes below $800,000 and a reduction in thousands of dollars for properties up to $1 million.</p>
<p>Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the change to stamp duty thresholds would also support new home construction and create jobs as part of the Government’s COVID19 Recovery Plan.</p>
<p>“Thousands of people will see their bank balances benefit from this change - it will help get more keys into more front doors of more new homes,” Ms Berejiklian said.</p>
<p>“It will also boost housing construction across NSW and support jobs in the building industry at a time when we need them more than ever before.”</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/27/Tax%20Threshold.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>Under the changes the threshold above which stamp duty will be charged on new homes for first home buyers will increase from the current $650,000 to $800,000, with the concession reducing on higher values before phasing out at $1 million.</p>
<p>The Government forecasts more than 6,000 first home buyers will benefit from the changes, saving eligible first homebuyers thousands of dollars.</p>
<p>Under the changes the stamp duty threshold on vacant land will rise from $350,000 to $400,000 and will phase out at $500,000. The change to the thresholds will only apply to newly-built homes and vacant land, not to existing homes, and will last for a 12-month period, commencing on 1 August 2020.</p>
<p>The NSW Government will also continue to offer a $10,000 First Home Owner Grant, which is available to people buying a new first home worth no more than $600,000, or buying land and building a new first home worth no more than $750,000 in total. This means the maximum amount of benefit a home owner could be entitled to is $32,335 if purchasing a new home and accessing the grant.</p>
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NSW FHB stamp duty to be slashed as part of COVID-19 recovery plan

<html><body><p><span>A COVID-induced spike in real estate enquiry has experts predicting a strong Whitsundays in the ‘new normal’.</span><br><br><span>Reports across the country state city-dwellers are making a COVID-19-change and are trading their CBD cubicle for a remote office with room to enjoy tranquility.</span><br><br><span>This newfound flexibility is believed to be behind the near-record number of online searches for Whitsunday property in recent months. </span><br><br><span>The lure of acreage seems to be the strongest, with leading real estate website </span><a href="http://domain.com.au/" target="_blank">Domain.com.au</a><span> experiencing a 507 per cent increase in searches for rural residential property in Cannonvale, and surrounding areas. </span><br><br><a href="https://ecomms.raywhite.com/collect/click.aspx?u=V1I3c3ZNeXdEbDVDRmVndkZYMmJYT01wQzNoTU43Zk10SDRYRmRwZDB3QUdIb2k1M0RZNzZRK25pSWxLSXpSU0NJK0xDcnZJZlljMThnNFFMZEt1ckE9PQ==&amp;rh=ff006465a85cb54541341c264f419930d26ae172" target="_blank">Ray White Whitsunday</a><span> Sales Associate Brett Dwyer said he had been surprised by the increase in enquiry. </span><br><br><span>“It seems like anyone that has had the Whitsundays as their 'one-day' dream address has decided that now is the time to move, and the latest stimulus announcements have magnified this further,” Mr Dwyer said.</span><br><br><a href="https://ecomms.raywhite.com/collect/click.aspx?u=V1I3c3ZNeXdEbDVDRmVndkZYMmJYT01wQzNoTU43Zk10SDRYRmRwZDB3RGsyVUtad1h5clQ5dktQcnFTbGtrSzU4SnR4UC82dmkzamRXZ3k3UXZtWHc9PQ==&amp;rh=ff006465a85cb54541341c264f419930d26ae172" target="_blank">Hidden Valley Whitsundays</a><span>, a new estate outside of Cannonvale may well be the epicentre of new interest, receiving over $1.3 million of land offers in May alone. </span><br><br><span>Hidden Valley Project Manager Brett Evans was less surprised that southern eyes were looking north for an escape. </span><br><br><span>“I lived in the Whitsundays for years but I live in the city right now and I can tell you where I’d rather be when things get crazy. We all felt the walls closing in down here,” Mr Evans said.</span><br><br><span>“After a few weeks of empty grocery shelves and being outsmarted by grade one home-schooling, we were definitely ready to hook the boat up and head north.” </span><br><br><span>With ten lots in the first stage of Hidden Valley sold to local buyers, it seems it’s not just the southern city-dwellers feeling claustrophobic. Locals are also looking for the security that comes with a few extra acres. </span><br><br><span>“The prospect of a more self-sufficient lifestyle and the security that comes with a few extra acres seem to be really strong motivators, which is understandable,” Mr Dwyer said.</span><br><br><span>“Who hasn’t found themselves in lockdown staring at the neighbours’ fences on either side and thinking that a little extra space, a veggie garden and a few chickens sounds pretty good?” </span><br><br><span>Senior Analyst for </span><a href="https://ecomms.raywhite.com/collect/click.aspx?u=V1I3c3ZNeXdEbDVDRmVndkZYMmJYT01wQzNoTU43Zk10SDRYRmRwZDB3QUdIb2k1M0RZNzZWNkdQbFYzNnBuVktEOWJQZHIzaGVjYjV4Q0UwUkRxV0h1V2RROEp6eDRSWUlxNlIzZzljZUFwR2FjbmR2TFdtUT09&amp;rh=ff006465a85cb54541341c264f419930d26ae172" target="_blank">Ray White Northern Corridor Group</a><span>, Ashley Rees, said supply of quality acreage land could soon become an unexpected issue in the region. </span><br><br><span>“When the pandemic began, stock levels were already 14 per cent lower than they were at the same time last year,” Mr Rees said.</span><br><br><span>“Add the new pressure of buyers cashing out of a strong southern market, to this renewed local demand, and we may soon find buyers struggling to find quality options. </span><br><br><span>“The Whitsundays has always offered an unbeatable lifestyle, but has been hamstrung by the lack of diverse employment options. </span><br><br><span>“For many it seems, the newfound acceptance of remote working in a post-lockdown world may have removed the last great barrier to living in this tropical playground.”</span></p></body></html>

Whitsundays proving to be a post-COVID-19 hotspot

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<p>The ANZ-Property Council Survey for the September quarter showed a modest improvement in sentiment across Australia’s property sectors, although it remains deep in negative territory as COVID-19 and the associated shutdown of economic activity cuts across the economy.</p>
<p>The impact of COVID-19 is immense. Nationwide, almost all respondents report being negatively hit.</p>
<p>Encouragingly, 60% of businesses expect the impact to improve over the coming quarter, however keep in mind that this survey closed on 1 July, before Melbourne’s shutdown was announced.</p>
<p>In the residential sector, overall sentiment remains negative across all states and territories.</p>
<p>Price expectations fell further into negative territory, while the employment outlook remains challenging. The outlook for construction and forward orders, however, are both now positive and improving, clearly helped by the HomeBuilder scheme.</p>
<p>In a special question on the Commonwealth Government’s HomeBuilder program, respondents within the residential sector were broadly positive about the scheme, with 60% reporting that it would have a positive impact on their business.</p>
<p>In commercial property, sentiment remains deeply negative across all sectors except industrial, where confidence is now back in positive territory. Sentiment in the office sector declined and was broadly flat in the tourism sector where confidence is the weakest.</p>
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