<p>Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.</p>

<p>The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.</p>

<p>The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" /></p>

<p>SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.</p>

<p>“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.</p>

<p>“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" /></p>

<p>The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.</p>

<p>Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.</p>

<p>COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" /></p>

<p>“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.</p>

<p>The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.</p>

<p>The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.</p>

<p>Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a></em></p>


Joel Robinson

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.</p>

<p>The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.</p>

<p>SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”</p>

<p>The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" /></p>

<p>The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.</p>

<p>A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.</p>

<p>Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" /></p>

<p>The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.</p>

<p>Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.</p>

<p>The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.</p>


First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

<p>Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."</p>

<p>Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;</p>


Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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<p data-end="157" data-start="0">The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.</p>

<p data-end="459" data-start="159"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.</p>

<p data-end="459" data-start="159">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]</p>

<p data-end="651" data-start="461"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.</p>

<p data-end="950" data-start="653">Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.</p>

<p data-end="1081" data-start="952">“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.</p>

<p data-end="1081" data-start="952">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]</p>

<p data-end="1307" data-start="1083">Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.</p>

<p data-end="1522" data-start="1309">The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.</p>

<p data-end="1522" data-start="1309">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]</p>

<p data-end="1714" data-start="1524">Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.</p>

<p data-end="1945" data-start="1716">The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.</p>

<p data-end="1945" data-start="1716">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]</p>

<p data-end="2220" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="1947">More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.</p>
</section>
</section>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]</p>


SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

<p data-end="320" data-start="79">Local Little Bay residents, along with buyers from premium postcodes across Sydney’s affluent Eastern Suburbs, have dominated purchases in developer-builder Urban Property Group’s first Eastern Suburbs apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a>.</p>

<p data-end="638" data-start="322">The $250 million coastal project, one of the first new developments in the area in several years, has proven particularly popular with downsizers, especially those from Coogee and Bondi. One Double Bay downsizer paid $4.7 million for a four-bedroom penthouse, setting a new local apartment price record in the process.</p>

<p data-end="864" data-start="640">Buyers have been attracted to the combination of coastal tranquillity, premium design and amenity-rich neighbourhood living. The walkable village setting, along with proximity to three of Sydney’s leading golf courses, New South Wales Golf Club, St Michael’s Golf Club and The Coast Golf Club, has also been a key drawcard.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352689]</p>

<p>Built across two low-rise buildings designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hill-thalis-architecture-urban-projects-pty-ltd">Hill Thalis</a> and set along a lush, landscaped green spine, designed by leading landscape architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>, ESTE Little Bay offers a collection of one, two, three and four-bedroom residences with interiors by Richards Stanisich.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> Sales Director, Tom McIvor said the response to ESTE has been "nothing short of extraordinary."</p>

<p>“Buyers have been quick to recognise ESTE as a rare opportunity to invest in a coastal sanctuary that offers both seclusion and connectivity to the heart of Sydney,” McIvor said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352687]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">SRM Residential</a> Senior Director, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">Clayton Ross</a> said the local market has responded incredibly well, driven by ESTE’s exceptional location and the rarity it offers.</p>

<p>“We’ve seen strong interest from a variety of buyer groups, all of whom are drawn to the exclusivity and quality of the build and construction by the 4.5-star iCIRT-rated builder / developer, Urban Property Group. There’s truly nothing else like it along Sydney’s coastline.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352690]</p>

<p>The project also includes robust buyer protections, including Resilience Insurance’s Latent Defects Insurance, providing 10 years of structural cover, and an independent iCIRT-rating of the developer.</p>

<p>“The iCIRT-rating adds another layer of confidence,” Ross added. “Buyers see it as a safeguard for their investment and their lifestyle.” A highlight of ESTE’s offering is its exclusive wellness amenities, including a heated rooftop infinity pool and outdoor heated spa, a state-of-the-art Technogym fitness centre, and a sauna.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a> is topped out and is on track to complete towards the end of 2026, with residents moving in before Christmas.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112343]</p>


Eastern Suburbs buyers snap up ESTE Little Bay apartments

Coronavirus

<html><body>
<p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px;">On Sunday, the government announced a </span><a href="https://treasury.gov.au/coronavirus" target="_blank" style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px;">second</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px;"> coronavirus economic package.</span></p>
<p>In addition to further one-off payments, the package includes some of the most significant changes to social security payments Australia has ever seen, even if only on a temporary basis.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://twitter.com/AlboMP/status/1242242080400793600" target="_blank">amendments</a> passed by parliament on Monday night expand them further.</p>
<p>The package effectively doubles rates of JobSeeker Payment for most people without children.</p>
<p>The maximum rate for a single recipient without dependants is currently A$565.70 per fortnight. Lone parents and those over 60 who have been on benefit for nine months or more currently get more, while members of couples each get somewhat less.</p>
<p>For the six months from April 27 the government will boost it by A$550 per fortnight through a special time-limited <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-03/Fact_sheet-Income_Support_for_Individuals.pdf" target="_blank">Coronavirus Supplement</a>.</p>
<p>Importantly, the extra $550 will go to all current recipients, including those who get less than $565.70 because they have assets or are in part-time work.</p>
<p>It will also go to both existing and new recipients of the Youth Allowance JobSeeker Payment, Parenting Payment, Farm Household Allowance and Special Benefit.</p>
<p>Thanks to Monday night’s <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-parliament-passes-coronavirus-economic-stimulus-package-20200323-p54d73" target="_blank">amendments</a>, it will now also go to <a href="https://www.anneruston.com.au/supporting_students_through_the_effects_of_coronavirus" target="_blank">full-time students receiving Abstudy, Austudy and Youth Allowance for Students</a>.</p>
<p>There are also <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coronavirus-stranded-visa-hold%20ers-thrown-welfare-lifeline-and-extended-stay/news-story/5697ef9768c61255afa9330adcb10994" target="_blank">reports</a> that special payments (and the Coronavirus Supplement) will be made available to temporary visa holders who lose their jobs or suffer significant financial hardship because of the coronavirus.</p>
<p>In addition, the government will no longer need legislation to make further changes to settings, giving the Social Services minister unprecedented powers.</p>
<p>This will give the government the ability to respond flexibly as circumstances change.</p>
<h2>One million now, an extra million soon</h2>
<p>Roughly 1.3 million existing recipients will receive the supplement, including the 200,000 or so students added on Monday.</p>
<p>To them will be added as many as <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansardr/bead2837-76c9-4ce9-952b-eafe8e2d614f/&amp;sid=0045" target="_blank">one million more</a>, who are not currently receiving the JobSeeker or any other payment.</p>
<p>Among them will be permanent employees who are stood down or lose their jobs, sole traders, the self-employed, casual workers and contract workers who find themselves meeting the benefit income tests as a result of the coronavirus.</p>
<p>Included are people required to care for people who are affected by the coronavirus.</p>
<h2>Accelerated processing</h2>
<p>The assets test for JobSeeker Payment, Youth Allowance Jobseeker and Parenting Payment will be waived for the duration of the Coronavirus Supplement.</p>
<p>In addition, the normal one week waiting period will be waived, as will the liquid assets test waiting period (which can be up to 13 weeks).</p>
<p>People already in this waiting period will be given immediate access to payments.</p>
<p>It is also important that the Coronavirus Supplement will be paid automatically. Current recipients will receive the full $550 on top of their regular payment without asking for it.</p>
<p>Services Australia is putting on an extra 5,000 staff to deal with the inflow of new claimants and <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-03/Fact_sheet-Income_Support_for_Individuals.pdf" target="_blank">accelerating claim process</a>.</p>
<h2>Australia moves up the ranks</h2>
<p>These changes will significantly boost the adequacy of working age social security payments in Australia – at least temporarily.</p>
<p>This chart shows where Australia sat in 2019 compared to other members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development on replacement rates – the percentage of previous after-tax earnings that an unemployment payment provided to a single unemployed worker who had previously been on two-thirds of the average wage.</p>
<p>Australia is coloured red, and is at the bottom of the pack.</p>
<p><strong>OECD 2019 unemployment income replacement rates</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322510/original/file-20200324-155652-pmiepm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322510/original/file-20200324-155652-pmiepm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a></p>
<p><span class="caption">Replacement rate during the second month of unemployment for single worker earning two-thirds of average wage, including housing assistance.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=NRR" target="_blank">Source: OECD, Net replacement rates in unemployment</a></span></p>
<p>A <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/social-protection-and-the-viral-recession/" target="_blank">number of countries</a> have boosted their payments, at least temporarily, in response to the coronavirus.</p>
<p>The chart below shows where Australia and New Zealand and France sit now, compared to the 2019 replacement rates of other countries.</p>
<p>Australia is again coloured red, but has climbed toward the middle of the pack.</p>
<p><strong>OECD unemployment replacement rates and announced increases</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322509/original/file-20200324-155658-qitd77.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322509/original/file-20200324-155658-qitd77.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a></p>
<p><span class="caption">Replacement rate during the second month of unemployment for single worker earning two-thirds of average wage, including housing assistance.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=NRR" target="_blank">Source: OECD, Net replacement rates in unemployment, government announcements</a></span></p>
<p>The charts show that Australia’ short-term earnings replacement rate climbs from 38 per cent to 68 per cent, because the base rate nearly doubles while rent assistance stays the same.</p>
<p>Replacement rates will be lower for higher income workers who lose their jobs and higher for part-time workers and casuals.</p>
<p>It is worth noting that other countries are adopting approaches that differ in where support is being targeted. Denmark, for example, is providing a direct wage supplement to employers of 75 per cent of wages up to a ceiling, on the condition that they do not lay off workers.</p>
<p>This is actually less than the current replacement rate of 84 per cent in Denmark, but if it is successful it would effectively mean that Danish workers would continue to receive their normal salary (a 100 per cent “replacement rate”).</p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether that strategy works.</p>
<h2>Improvements on delivery</h2>
<p>The government has indicated that the stimulus package is “scalable”, meaning that it is possible to increase the amounts even further and to extend their duration.</p>
<p>And the government has already fixed some gaps in its initial plan relating to students and newly arrived residents and temporary visa holders. Permanent residents will be eligible for assistance immediately and not subject to current waiting periods - which can be up to four years.</p>
<p>Without extending benefits to temporary visa holders we would have had what academics <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/of-visas-and-viruses/" target="_blank">Henry Sherrell and Peter Mares</a> warned would be hundreds of thousands of people who are suddenly unemployed, without access to welfare, and without a method to return to their country of citizenship.</p>
<p>The provisions of the special benefit that will be available to temporary visa holders <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/special-benefit/who-can-get-it#a1" target="_blank">define</a> severe financial hardship as earning less than the highest special benefit fortnightly payment, being unable to improve that financial position and having limited savings.</p>
<p>There is another group whose status should be clarified urgently - that is people who have applied for permanent residence and are still in that application process. There is a case for treating them as if they had already become permanent residents rather than temporary workers.</p>
<h2>The ‘benefit cliff’ remains</h2>
<p>A remaining downside with potentially big unintended consequences is the legislated proposal doesn’t yet adjust the spouse income test, excluding many couples where one earner loses their job and leading to a perverse and undesirable “benefit cliff”.</p>
<p>If the recipient’s spouse is working and not receiving a Jobseeker or equivalent payment, then the JobSeeker payment will be reduced by <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/topics/income-test-jobseeker-payment-partner-allowance-and-widow-allowance/29411" target="_blank">60 cents for every dollar the partner earns over $994 per fortnight</a>.</p>
<p>This means that the recipient can receive some JobSeekers Payment – and hence the full $550 per fortnight Coronavirus supplement - until the working partner’s income reaches $1,844 per fortnight. At that point they face the <a href="https://theconversation.com/getting-poorer-while-working-harder-the-cliff-effect-113422" target="_blank">“benefit cliff”</a>.</p>
<p>If the working partner has an income of $1840 per fortnight, the recipient gets the full supplement of $550 per fortnight, but if the worker has an income of $1850 a fortnight, the recipient gets nothing. The same cliff faces single people, as well.</p>
<p>But this partner income threshold of $1850 per fortnight ($925/week) is right in the middle of the Australian income distribution.</p>
<p>We calculate that, among two-earner couples aged 25-54, of the primary earners who lose their job, about half will get the Coronavirus Supplement, while of the secondary earners, only somewhere between a quarter and a third will get it.</p>
<p>(These are rough estimates based on Bureau of Statistics income survey estimates of the personal income distributions).</p>
<p>Given that in most couples the secondary earner is female, the different treatment has the potential to discriminate against women.</p>
<p>One way to eliminate the cliff would be to integrate the Coronavirus Supplement more properly into the income support system, so that people with spouse income above these cutoffs would continue to receive a reduced payment.</p>
<p>The government has asked for power to fix this issue via regulation, but has not yet announced how it will address it.</p>
<h2>The scale of the challenge</h2>
<p>An extra <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansardr/bead2837-76c9-4ce9-952b-eafe8e2d614f/&amp;sid=0045" target="_blank">one million</a> recipients (the treasurer’s estimate) would mean that the share of the working age population receiving income support climbed from 14.2 per cent to 18.7 per cent, an increase of 4.5 percentage points, which is bigger than the 3.5 and 3.8 percentage point increases during Australia’s two previous post-war recessions in the early 1980s and early 1990s.</p>
<p>In both of these earlier recessions, the unemployment rate shot up from under 7 per cent to near 10 per cent or higher within a year. The current increase will take place in the next six months, rather than over a full year.</p>
<p>Not all the effect will directly be in the unemployment rate. Some will be in the non-participation rate as people decide to neither work nor look for work.</p>
<p>The best measure to watch to track the labour market will be the reduction in hours worked.</p>
<p>International experience also suggests that it will be substantial. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-20/canada-sees-500-000-employment-insurance-applications-this-week" target="_blank">Service Canada</a> is reported to have received more than 500,000 applications for Employment Insurance in the past week, 20 times the number recorded in the same week a year ago and equivalent to about 2.5 per cent of the labour force. Similar trends have appeared in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2020/mar/24/when-it-comes-to-unemployment-in-australia-definitions-have-been-broken" target="_blank">United States</a>.</p>
<p>In Australia, we are already seeing the payment system struggling under <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://twitter.com/ServicesGovAU/status/1242225599835516929?s=20" target="_blank">the load of new applications</a>.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the key goal of our economic response to the coronavirus must be to share the economic costs.</p>
<p>The government has made an excellent start in the package announced on Sunday and extended on Monday.</p>
<p>But we have to be prepared to ramp it up and expand support so that everyone living in Australia is adequately supported and the burden of the crisis is shared fairly.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134358/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-whiteford-2016" target="_blank">Peter Whiteford</a>, Professor, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292" target="_blank">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a></em> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-bradbury-6437" target="_blank">Bruce Bradbury</a>, Associate Professor, Social Policy Research Centre, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-supplement-your-guide-to-the-australian-payments-that-will-go-to-the-extra-million-on-welfare-134358" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
<h1 class="legacy"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px;"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-whiteford-2016">Peter Whiteford</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-bradbury-6437">Bruce Bradbury</a></span></h1>
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Coronavirus supplement: your guide to the Australian payments that will go to the extra million on welfare

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<p>Over 80 per cent of residential real estate agents around the world say the coronavirus pandemic has cut their 2020 earning expectations, according to the first international survey of real estate on the impact of the outbreak.</p>
<p>More than 60 countries took part in the Juwai IQI Market Intelligence 2020 survey, with every country citing a loss of earnings.</p>
<p>Real estate agents in Greece have the worst outlook.</p>
<p>Some 95 per cent of Greek agents expect the coronavirus pandemic to cut their earnings in 2020, with two-thirds of those forecasting they will earn "significantly less."</p>
<p> </p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/3/Screen%20Shot%202020-04-01%20at%2010.26.02%20am.png" alt=""></p>
<p>As well as Greece, more than four out of five agents in a further five countries expect to earn less in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic.</p>
<p>In Australia, 84% of agents expect to earn less in 2020, with 58% suggesting the impact on their earnings will be significant and only 27% expect it to be moderate. </p>
<p>In Singapore, 88% of agents expect to make less.</p>
<p>The share of Singapore agents who expect to earn "a little less" is, at 47%, larger than the 41% who believe they will make "significantly less."</p>
<p>Malaysian and Philippine agents are the least pessimistic among those surveyed.</p>
<p>In Malaysia, 74% of agents expect to earn less in 2020, with 38% expecting to earn “significantly less” and 33% expecting to earn “a little less.”</p>
<p>In the Philippines, 68% of agents expect to earn less in 2020 due to the Coronavirus, with 38% expecting to earn “significantly less” and 30% expecting to earn “a little less.”</p>
<p>One of the strategies agents will use to preserve their incomes, according to the report, is to invest more in marketing to foreign buyers. Worldwide, 18% of agents report foreign buyers are one of their strategies.</p>
<p>Perhaps because of the relative significance of foreign buyers to their markets, agents in the Philippines and Portugal are the most likely to report plans to do so. In both the Philippines and Portugal, 26% of agents plan to increase their foreign buyer marketing.</p>
<p>In Malaysia and Thailand, 22% of agents will increase their investment in marketing to foreign buyers. In Greece, 21% of agents will do so. The share is 18% in Singapore, 16% in both Canada and Australia, and 12% in the USA.</p>
<p> </p>
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Coronavirus driving agents earnings down worldwide; Juwai IQI Market Intelligence 2020 survey

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<h2><strong>OPINION:</strong></h2>

<p>Earlier this month, I wrote about <a href="/expert-insights/buying/how-will-the-coronavirus-impact-australia-s-property-market"><u><strong>how the market will react to the Coronavirus (COVID-19)</strong></u></a> before it became a pandemic. Now, three weeks on, we have seen the impact it has on numerous <a href="/guides/covid-19-how-to-adapt-to-working-from-home"><u><strong>businesses and our daily lives</strong></u></a>. Currently, Australians are living through one of the <a href="/news/covid-19-how-the-world-previously-recovered-from-sars-and-whether-or-not-we-can-do-the-same-this-time-round"><u><strong>most significant economic and social upheavals</strong></u></a> in our history.</p>

<p>For the real estate industry, the most direct impact from changes announced by the government would certainly be the social distancing restrictions prohibiting open inspections and auctions. These restrictions have forced a lot of new changes to the way they operate, including virtual inspections and online auctions. Last weekend we saw a mix of selling via online and phone auctions, as well as going back to more traditional ways of selling such as private sale or selling by tender.</p>

<p>Virtual Reality for real estate has been around for many years, allowing people to “try before you buy” without spending time and money travelling to scope out properties. However, the traditional open house has always proved popular as one can physically see, touch, hear and even smell the house and environment they may potentially be living in. But with these restrictions in place now, <a href="/guides"><u><strong>technology will again come into the forefront</strong></u></a> and will eventually become the new norm.</p>

<p>While the industry is able to change and adapt, the more telling signs will be the impact on the number of listings and days on the market. From the seller’s point of view, if they are not under pressure to sell, they may hold off until after this pandemic is over. On the other hand, if we continue to see job losses, many house owners under financial stress may be forced to sell.</p>

<p>For investors, at a time when many people sit on the sidelines waiting to see what’s going to happen, many will see this as a great opportunity to buy a property considerably cheaper than they would have a few weeks ago and much cheaper than they will have to pay for it in 12 months.</p>

<p>The government has no choice but to offer relief for those affected by the crisis. The Prime Minister reinforces that they are “building bridges” to help us get to the other side. At this stage, it looks like commercial and residential landlords will be receiving some type of support, such as concessions on negative gearing and land tax. This will mean they will be asked to forgo rent, hence easing some pressure off renters. Already several major retailers, particularly those in shopping centres, have said they will not pay rent while closed. This is likely to extend to office tenants that are under similar stress.</p>

<p>The RBA and the government’s focus is on supporting businesses and households who will suffer significant income hits, forcing an emergency rate cut to a record low of 0.25%. RBA governor Phillip Lowe explained,</p>

<blockquote>
<p><em><strong>“We are clearly living in extraordinary and challenging times, the Coronavirus is first and foremost a very major public health issue, but it’s also become a major economic problem and it’s having deep ramifications for financial systems right around the world.”</strong></em></p>
</blockquote>

<p>It is still uncertain as to what the ultimate economic impact of COVID-19 will be, as well as what the fall out will be for property. However, with most economists accepting that we’re heading for, if not already in, a recession, some are wondering if COVID-19 will finally cause our property markets to crash. </p>

<p>The bright side is that historically, after each global disruption, there has been a rebound and increase in property prices, and there is no reason to suggest this will be any different as the underlying property fundamentals are still strong.</p>

<p><a href="/news/covid-19-understanding-what-you-can-and-cant-control-the-importance-of-cross-referencing-facts"><u><strong>Look after one another</strong></u></a> and <a href="/guides/covid-19-how-apartment-dwellers-can-keep-themselves-safe-during-self-isolation"><u><strong>stay safe</strong></u></a>.</p>
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Changes the real estate industry will experience as a result of the Coronavirus

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<p>The national cabinet has agreed to consider advice from Treasurers on commercial and residential tenancies at their next meeting on Friday April 3.</p>
<p><span>Tenants and landlords are left in limbo as to how they will be affected.</span></p>
<p><span>A six month ban on evictions has been announced, although the plan is yet to be fully outlined.</span></p>
<p><span>It was nearly a week ago that Scott Morrison said there will "soon be an announcement" for the hundreds of </span>thousands of people who have lost their jobs and small business operators who can't pay rent.</p>
<p>He described the issue as complex. </p>
<p>"A lot of progress has been made over the course of today and over the course of this week, we'll be looking to hopefully finalise some measures", Morrison said when responding when the government will announce how they will help to ease people's rent bill.</p>
<p>"This is obviously a complicated issue because you've got a tenant, you've got a landlord, you've got creditors and all of those issues and you need to solve for the entire chain that's there", Morrison said.</p>
<p>It was to be considered at the National Cabinet that evening, however there is still no formal decision made.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU">The president of the REIA, Adrian Kelly said while he is very supportive of the Government's efforts, the REIA was disappointed</span> with the simplistic approach of the Prime Minister’s message.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">He suggested the PM's message "ignores the tenancy arrangement and thus raises more questions than it answers."</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“Real estate agents are the middle persons who facilitate the agreement between landlords and tenants and manage it as well as the property."</p>
<p>Adrian Kelly said the government's moratorium on evictions overlooks the fact that real estate agents and agencies are also going to be affected by the ongoing crisis.</p>
<p>"We need to address the support of agents so that what the prime minister wants, in terms of landlords and tenants — finding a solution to get through the crisis, can be achieved," Kelly said.</p>
<p>"Estate agents will work very hard to facilitate the role between landlord and tenant, and to do this they need income."</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">The parliaments of two states, NSW and Tasmania have passed legislation on evictions although they are unlikely to become law since they did not emerge from the government benches.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p> </p>
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The national cabinet to consider commercial and residential tenancies on April 3

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Australia is teeming with people who have questions about the impact of the virus crisis on real estate and are seeking urgent answers.</span> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">My webinar with buyers’ agent Rich Harvey of propertybuyer on 24 March attracted a big audience – our largest ever - and we received more questions than we could handle during the live event.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Many of those questions including some of the fundamental ones that everyone is asking: will property values decline, how long will it last, is this a good time to buy, what happens if my tenant can’t pay the rent and if I ask my lender for a mortgage holiday, will it affect my credit rating?</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Here are some of the key questions or comments, and my responses.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Is now the time to be buying an investment property? Will there be tenants in the market?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I think this is a good time to be looking for an investment property. There will be opportunities to buy well in the current climate. Buyers will be able to negotiate from a position of strength. Just be careful to select a location with the credentials for long-term growth. There will be tenants – vacancies are low around the nation and the various government stimulus packages will assist people who might otherwise struggle to pay their rent.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Auction clearance rates will change now that the first wave of lock-down controls come into effect. Do you predict that the market will continue to be healthy amidst rising unemployment?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Yes, I think the market will continue to be healthy. The rise in unemployment will be temporary – if it was long-term, extending right throughout the year, it would have a material impact on markets and property prices, but I expect it to be relatively short-term. Auctions will be curtailed by the government restrictions on gatherings, but most sales do not occur via auction so that in itself will not be detrimental to property prices. Only 10-11% of sales across Australian happen through auctions. It will cause some vendors who particularly want auctions to withdraw their properties from sale, which will exacerbate the shortage of listings and put a floor under property values.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Do you think vacancy rates will rise in the short term with unemployment increasing?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I think there will be some increase in vacancy rates in the short-term, but mainly because owners who had been using AirBNB rather than permanent rental situations will now be seeking permanent tenants (because of the travel restrictions, which are killing the AirBNB market at the moment). Most markets should be able to absorb this, because vacancy rates are very low in most locations across Australia.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Can you help unpack how a potential 10% unemployment rate cannot have any impact on property prices going forward?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">If we had a 10% jobless rate long-term in Australia, it would impact on property prices – but we won’t have that. We will have a short, sharp spike in unemployment but it won’t last long enough to cause a significant fall in house prices.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>Will this situation promote longer-term demographic shifts to more people working remotely and strengthen property growth in regional areas?</em></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I think that is a trend anyway and has helped to drive the boom in the past 2-3 years in Regional Victoria, particularly in towns within 1-2 hours of Melbourne, and also the Central Coast just outside Sydney. The current situation will probably enhance that trend towards people working remotely and therefore making lifestyle changes. Increasingly, there are fewer and fewer reasons to be close to the CBDs of major cities.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Do you have any perspectives on negotiating with developers during this time, especially as first home buyers.</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Everything is negotiable at any time but in these turbulent times I suspect buyers will be able to negotiate favourable deals when buying new product from developers. It would be a good time to present yourself as a buyer at a time when many people will be standing back or sitting on the fence.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Over the next few months if you find yourself unable to keep up with your loans, get on the front foot and call the credit provider early.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>This will not only relieve some pressure as you won’t be living in fear of what they might do, but it will most likely help to protect your credit file in the process.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>If the emotion is too close to home for you to liaise with the credit provider yourself, then engage a professional to do it for you. But check in early with your lenders.</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I think that is sound advice. The major lenders have made it clear that they want to help their mortgage customers, as well as businesses, because they have a strong vested interest in keeping their customers healthy. Anyone who is struggling with loan repayments should contact their lenders and work out a solution with them. The major banks are indicating that they will allow people to pause their repayments for a period of time.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>What should landlords do if a tenant advises they can’t pay their rent?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I don’t think it’s possible to give a generalised answer to that. It needs to be handled on a case-by-case basis. But a lot of the emphasis in the various stimulus packages is on assisting people in those situations. The benefits for people out of work have been significantly increased to try to avoid situations where people can’t pay their rent. But, for any landlords who fact that situation, work with your tenants, or your property manager, to come up with a solution – perhaps by reducing the rent for a short period.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Should I reduce the rent before the tenants ask?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It may be a good strategy, to pre-empt any problems – perhaps offer a reduction in the rent for a short period to help get through the difficult period. It’s preferable to do that, rather than losing your tenant. I note that some landlords are doing that, according to media reports. But it needs to assessed on a case-by-case basis.</span> </p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Should we hold on to our savings and see how low the market will go?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">That kind of strategy seldom works. It’s indicates a short-term viewpoint when real estate should be approached with long-term horizons. The other problem with that kind of approach is that it’s impossible to pinpoint the bottom of the market – the data that shows the bottom of the trough doesn’t appear until a long time after the event. A better approach is to look for good buying opportunities in areas with the credentials for long-term growth.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>What is your take on people losing their jobs who have a mortgage, will they lose their homes, if so how will they get a rental in such a tight rental market?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">One of the key factors in the response from the Federal Government and the major banks is to support people who lose their jobs and have difficulty paying the mortgage. Lenders have said they will offer mortgage holidays – e.g. suspending payments for six months. The tight rental markets are being eased, to a certain extent, by investors who previously used AirBNB now putting their properties into the permanent rental pool (because the travel restrictions are killing the AirBNB market).</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>My husband is very nervous and wants me to sell our family home.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>What’s your advice on selling now.</em></span> </strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">No, please don’t do that. There is no need to panic to that degree. We are not going to see property values collapse and anyone who struggles to pay the mortgage during this crisis period should be able to arrange a suspension of their regular payments with their lender.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>If I were to make an opportunistic buy, what’s to say I can rent it out in a timely manner in the current environment?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">A sensible investor would, firstly, buy in a location where the vacancy rate is low (and most locations around the nation currently have low vacancies) and, secondly, speak to property managers in the local area about the prospects for renting the property you’re thinking of buying – before signing a contract.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p5"><span class="s1"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

13 Coronavirus property questions answered by Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p>Non-essential travel to regional NSW towns and remote communities must be cancelled and Easter holidaymakers should indefinitely postpone their visits, in line with the nationwide effort to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>Deputy Premier and Minister for Regional NSW John Barilaro said National Cabinet has clearly asked everyone to stay at home unless they are shopping for essentials, are receiving medical care, are undertaking daily exercise or are attending work or school.</p>
<p>“My message today is simple, now is not the time to travel from metropolitan areas to regional NSW for a holiday, for meetings, or even to relocate yourselves for a longer period - the safest thing you can do right now is stay in your community,” Mr Barilaro said.</p>
<p>“This also applies to people living in regional NSW towns, because the virus does not discriminate and does not care about borders, so now is not the time to travel between towns, whether it be for meetings or even to visit family and friends.</p>
<p>“To help slow the spread we need to do the right thing by our families, friends and neighbours, which means staying 1.5 metres away from others, avoid social gatherings, wash hands and ensure that if you are sick, that you self-isolate.”</p>
<p>Mr Barilaro said he is particularly worried about city residents using the upcoming Easter break to try and relocate themselves to regional NSW in an attempt to escape quarantine, which would be extremely dangerous for rural and remote communities.</p>
<p>“We continue to battle the worst drought in recorded history, we have endured bushfires that took the lives of 25 people and destroyed more than 2,400 homes and what we don’t need is people spreading the virus across regional NSW,” Mr Barilaro said.</p>
<p>“I know towns hit hard by the drought and bushfires are relying on holidaymakers to keep people in jobs and put food on the table, but right now health and safety is paramount and lives depend on every single one of us doing our part by staying at home.”</p>
<p>Mr Barilaro said help is available to people across regional NSW, particularly people who are isolated and the elderly, and encouraged anyone who needs a hand to call the NSW Government’s COVID-19 hotline on 13 77 88.</p>
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Non-essential travel to regional NSW towns and remote communities must be cancelled: NSW Government

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>This week, historic negative economic outcomes were seen in both Europe and the US. Financial markets instead focused on the wave of stimulus announced, particularly in the US.</p>
<p>Of the data released, the first focus for markets was the Markit PMI’s for key developed nations. Whereas the shock ex-China to date has been concentrated in manufacturing, services were hit hard in the March preliminary reading. In Japan, the service PMI fell from 46.8 in February to 32.7 in March; in the US, a similar decline was seen from 49.4 to 39.1; while in Europe, the loss was a staggering 24pts from 52.6 to 28.4 – a very unfavorable comparison to the GFC low of 39.2 in 2009. </p>
<p>While severe, these shocks pale in contrast to the deterioration seen this week in US initial jobless claims. As we flagged last week, the first few weeks of the US contagion have seen a never-before-seen increase in US unemployment. Following the 71k increase in the last report to 282k claimants, in this update a further 3 million new claimants were reported, taking initial claims to 3.28 million. Prior to this outcome, the historic peak was 695k back in 1982.</p>
<p>Note that while the 2020 initial outcome is almost five times the scale of the 1982 peak, the labour force has only grown 50% since. Moreover, this week’s outcome will not be a one off. It is still early days in this crisis; job losses have been staggered; and there have been numerous reports of claim backlogs to be assessed. Clearly the US is facing into an immense shock. </p>
<p>It is not surprising then that the US Congress has responded with a stimulus package also of historic proportions ($2 trillion). This will include support to all low and middle-income households in the form of cash handouts; extended unemployment benefits; loans to small business which can be forgiven in time if the funds are used for certain purposes such as keeping on staff; as well as loans to support large business cash flow.</p>
<p>These are significant measures, but are unlikely to materially reduce the shock coming to their economy. This is in part because the stimulus will only partly offset the loss of income from job loss and as confidence’s decline will hit discretionary spending hard. But primarily it is because the US COVID-19 case count continues to rise rapidly, meaning the country is nowhere near a point of stabilisation which it can begin to recover from. Highlighting this, the New York Times today reported that the US now has more confirmed cases than China experienced. Moreover, the global state of affairs also remains dire, with severe cases continuing to increase rapidly across Europe.</p>
<p>The shock to growth coming from abroad is also having a clear impact on Australia and New Zealand. But more pressing is the domestic spread of COVID-19. The current situation for our two nations has been summarised this week by Westpac Group Chief Economist Bill Evans and New Zealand Chief Economist Dominick Stephens. For Australia, further detail on the expected depth of the deterioration in our labour market and economy was also released by Westpac Economics, as was our forecast of the implications for the Federal Government’s fiscal position and government debt.</p>
<p>For our labour market, given the implementation of stricter restrictions on our economy, we now anticipate a rise in the unemployment rate to a peak of 11% by mid-2020, to be sustained through the September quarter. This will come as a result of the loss of over 800k jobs and as the economy contracts by 4.0% over the year to September 2020.  As the economy is restored to a more normal footing in the September and December quarters, activity will bounce and the unemployment rate fall – we believe to 8.8% end-2020 and 8.0% end-2021.</p>
<p>Still, that is a much weaker end point than anticipated prior to COVID-19. Hence, not only will the recession of 2020 hit the Government’s fiscal position, but there will also be a lasting impact. On top of this shock to activity and Government revenue is the cost of stimulus, to steady the economy amid immense uncertainty.</p>
<p>In summary, we anticipate a deterioration in the Federal budget from balance in 2018/19 to a 4.5% of GDP deficit ($90bn) in 2019/20 and a deficit of 8% of GDP ($160bn) come 2020/21. In 2019/20, 2ppts ($40bn) comes as a result of policy stimulus while 2.5ppts ($50bn) is due to the apparent cyclical deterioration. The 2020/21 deficit of 8% of GDP meanwhile includes 3ppts ($60bn) from policy stimulus and 5ppts ($100bn) is due to cyclical deterioration. As a result, the supply of government securities on issue will rise by $250bn to $820bn (40% of GDP) by June 2021.</p>
<p><strong>ELLIOT CLARKE</strong><em> is a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42750" target="_blank">senior economist at Westpac</a> </em></p>
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A global crisis and stimulus of historic proportions: Elliot Clarke

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">After a relief rally, the oil price has dropped back towards new cycle lows as the Coronavirus threatens to lead to a prolonged slump in demand.</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">A few more buying opportunities looking likely this week. </p>
<div>The price of Brent Crude is now -67.2 per cent below its January highs and we're staring at the lowest price level in 17 years. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div> </div>
<div>Some analysts think that the oil price could hit $10/barrel over the coming months, which from my perspective would represent 'back up the truck' territory.<br><br><strong>Stage 3 rolled out</strong><br><br>There have been some more promising numbers for New Zealand and Australia on new cases of the virus.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The short, sharp shutdown looks likely to be the base case strategy to flatten the curve and buy valuable time for medical centres and hospitals.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria ramped up its response to Stage Three, with spot fines of up to $1,600 for social distancing breaches, while gatherings of more than two are no longer to be allowed (excluding members of the same household).<br><br>Queenslanders now also face $1,300 spot fines for breaches. </div>
<div>
<br><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
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Oil prices are at a 17-year low: Pete Wargent

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">Globally there are now more than 657,000 cases of the Coronavirus, and more than 30,400 deaths.<br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HM41pHmKAsY/Xn7wR2xMvLI/AAAAAAAA08U/bG7s8MQo5zkSOQxZJbwM7OzigYI8UDjUQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/LOG.jpg" width="640" height="450" data-original-height="569" data-original-width="806"></div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><br>On a global basis new cases continue to climb to 65,000 per day and rising.<br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-R6pcDJYkWbQ/Xn7wokBLYZI/AAAAAAAA08g/VMdwPR0gQL4wgpDxU9IL9VUU8mYRr9uaACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/C2.jpg" width="640" height="344" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="911"></div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div>With the exponential increase continuing, it's only a matter of time before total global known cases ascend to 1 million and beyond. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the positive side of the ledger, China appears to have all but eliminated new cases, and a number of other countries appear to have arrested the virus. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Germany now has more than 58,000 cases, but its curve does now appear to be flattening.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Tragically, Italy has seen more than 92,000 cases and 10,000 deaths, but with luck here too the exponential growth may soon be curtailed. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Spain's figures still look nasty, but the curve is gradually flattening. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Increasingly the biggest disaster of all looks as though it might be in the US, where cases have exploded to 120,000 with little sign of any promising progress to date.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>Australia shutdown</strong><br><strong><br></strong>How about in Australia?</p>
<div>Today, new known cases increased by 460, taking total known cases to 3,640, with 14 deaths to date (mainly over those aged in their 70s or older). </div>
<div> </div>
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<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div>That does represent an increase from 370 new cases on March 24, which was four days earlier, but at this stage the situation doesn't appear to be deteriorating catastrophically.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Granted, a lot may change in this regard within a week or two. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>So we're by no means out of the woods yet, but for whatever reasons things do appear to be shaping up somewhat better in Australia than elsewhere.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aAbsD3Y4PHw/Xn8h6M-ybsI/AAAAAAAA08w/OMN88HSHX8U2YCeIm2eZi47L7kOC-lZ7QCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="470" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="893"></div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div>And that's in spite of multiple cruise ship blunders and numerous earlier examples of flagrant disregard for social distancing rules.<br><br>And, indeed, it's in spite of more widespread testing per capita in Australia than in most other countries (Korea, Germany, and Russia have held more tests than we have, but of course their respective populations are far larger than ours, at only 25 million). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Only a virologist can explain the possible reasons for this; perhaps the climate helps?</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>A 9-point plan for re-opening Australia</strong></p>
<div>This is a global pandemic with global ramifications, but ultimately the world won't end, and figuratively speaking it'll be every man for himself when it comes to the critical question of how to kick-start national economies again.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Here's a 9-point plan for how we might be able to achieve it soonest and most effectively, from the perspective of a perpetually under-qualified blogger, should the daily figures begin to improve over the next fortnight:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>1 - Initiate a shelter-in-place order</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>States already have shelter-in-place action plans, so these should be used immediately for all non-essential workers and businesses. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Aussie economy has effective already had a coronary, so it's now imperative to get daily new cases of the Coronavirus under control as soon as humanly possible.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The sooner we can do that, the sooner we can think about re-opening. </div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>2 - Wage subsidies</strong><br><br>The government has spoken much about its 'stimulus packages the equivalent of 10 per cent of GDP', but the truth is much of this has been in the form of loan facilities and other non-cash items.</p>
<div>Whether by following a similar model to Boris Johnson in the UK or through another approach using the existing transfer system, the government must announce wage subsidies for stood down workers to keep them solvent until such time that the economy can be opened for business again.<br><br>Retail workers are being stood down at an alarming rate, while hospitality and tourism is also being smashed.<br><br>But these workers can return to work soon too, provided that they can be tided over with subsidies.<br><br>Furthermore, with Treasury or RBA funding, banks may also be better served over the medium term to offer interest-only mortgage terms at an interest rate of, say, 2½ per cent to any borrowers in distress, for as long as needed (in addition to the arbitrary 6-month payment holiday terms already being promoted). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Interest-only mortgage terms with the use of an offset account can be an ideal means for families and other mortgagors to begin building up a safety buffer as get back on their feet from a financial perspective.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rental relief measures will presumably also follow, perhaps implemented at the state level. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>These are extraordinary measures, but they're also extraordinary times.<br><br>Shutting down the economy is effectively a national disaster scenario, and it needs to be approached as such. </div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>3 - Set up a COVID-10 Delivery Unit</strong></p>
<div>Create a dedicated COVID-19 Delivery Unit to purchase, import, manufacture, or find any other ways to both stockpile and circulate facemasks, surgical masks, respiratory equipment, ventilators, gowns, protective gear, and treatment drugs, and prepare as many ICU beds as practicable around the country. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even <em>if</em> the virus gets under control in the short term, there could yet be a second, third, and fourth wave, so it's better to go hard here rather than die wondering (for want of a better phrase). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>If there's available funding for testing and research into vaccines, cures, and effective treatments, then implement that too. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>4 - Fund a COVID-19 Testing and Tracing Unit</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia must acquire millions of testing kits, and put in place widespread and rigorous testing and tracing regime, with an enforceable action plan for quarantining and treating those with symptoms, and tracing the recent contacts of any known infected persons. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>5 - Government messaging</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Testing and tracing will likely need to continue long after the curve of new cases is flattened, and to this end government messaging should encourage Aussies to keep a daily journal of their movements, and a daily record of folks they may have had close contact with each day (this is a suggestion I read about at the excellent <em>Calculated Risk</em>, and as usual it's a very thoughtful one). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One of the best-known finance authors once reportedly said that people need to hear simple messages over and over again before they truly sink in...a point with which I concur.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Therefore, appropriate messaging needs to be hammered home repeatedly on social distancing, the wearing of facemasks, washing hands, sanitising, hygiene, avoiding touching objects unnecessarily, and a raft of other key points. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The wearing of facemasks has, to my knowledge, normally only been common practice amongst Aussies of Asian origin, but common sense says we should all consider adopting the practice (and maybe gloves too).</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>6 - Re-open local economies with few cases</strong></p>
<div>The government faces the nigh on impossible task of balancing the public's health against the human and economic cost of keeping businesses closed.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Take the example of the capital city of Darwin.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Northern Territory was already in recession before the COVID-19 issue surfaced, and now its borders must be closed and its businesses will be hit harder still by any restrictive measures. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yet the entire territory has just 15 known cases of the Coronavirus to date, and only one death.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9gbrFTI3xpE/Xn8mfKh2aeI/AAAAAAAA084/MmkNK0vSRMoQk9SnCFIDGM8SAMP5CISAgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/C2.jpg" width="640" height="436" data-original-height="662" data-original-width="970"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>At the appropriate point the towns and cities (and then states and territories) with the fewest cases will need to see restrictive measures lifted.<br><br>This can soon be an opportunity for Australia's regions to lead the economy forward again, which would make a pleasant change from the heavy reliance on Sydney and Melbourne of the past 7-8 years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Virus hotspots may need to remain shuttered for longer, but for towns and cities with the fewest cases the curfews and restrictive measures can be lifted soonest. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>7 - Re-open the Aussie borders, but with mandatory testing</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The capability should exist to introduce and maintain mandatory testing for all entrants into Australia on an ongoing basis. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It goes without saying that those showing symptoms will need to be quarantined and appropriately treated. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the one hand these measures may seem draconian, but on the other hand, what might the alternative look like? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many of the cases in Australia apparently originated overseas, so airports and the border are evidently a high risk area. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>8 - Allow businesses to re-open</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>As daily new known cases begin to decline, allow businesses and trading to re-open, but with social distancing still to be practised to the extent possible.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Businesses should be encouraged to allow staff to work from home where practicable, and group meetings discouraged where possible.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover, an over-arching rule of common sense must apply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>9 - An ongoing fight</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's not yet entirely clear whether re-infection is possible, or whether there will be second and third waves of the virus in those locations where cases of the virus have initially been controlled. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Therefore, we must remain vigilant well beyond the point that the economy is up and humming again.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>A balancing act</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There is, of course, no 'right' way to do these things. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Every day that companies or self-employed workers are closed for business inflicts more pain, so there are many challenging decisions to be made in real time by those in power to balance the potential risks versus respective health and economic costs. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Only in hindsight will experts know what could or should have been done with more certainty, but this 9-point plan is what's swirling around my head tonight.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>In short: </strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Issue shelter-in-place orders until the curve of new cases is flattened;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Go hard, fast, and early to wage subsidies for workers and cash payments for businesses, with further mortgage and rental relief packages to follow;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Build up a war chest of medical supplies, and introduce a nationwide testing, tracing, and quarantining program;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Hammer home the 'best practice' messaging, and encourage record-keeping with respect to personal movements and contact with others;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- As daily new cases begin to decline, re-open locations and economies with the fewest known Coronavirus cases first, and gradually roll this re-opening out nationwide; and </div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Enforce mandatory testing for all entrants to Australia, with quarantine as required.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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A 9-point plan for re-opening Australia: Pete Wargent

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<p>Commercial landlords have been directed by the PM Scott Morrison to "sit down" with their commercial office, retail and industrial tenants to work out how to get through the coronavirus crisis.</p>
<p>And if commercial landlords don't then they risk missing out payments in the government's third rescue package.</p>
<p>"If you aren't going to engage in that sort of cooperative activity, between bank, between tenants and between landlords, then the sort of support that you might otherwise expect to receive, you will not receive," Mr Morrison said.</p>
<p><span>"We are in unchartered territory, but the goal should be shared and that is a business can reopen on the other side, not weighed down by excessive debts because of rental arrears, a landlord has a tenant so that they can continue into the future to be able to support the investments that they have made and banks have clients," he added.</span></p>
<p><span><span>Finance Minister Mathias Cormann said on Insiders on Sunday that commercial landlords had limited capacity to replace tenants, and he urged a co-operative approach.</span></span></p>
<p>The six month ban on evictions, which has yet to be fully outlined, applies to commercial tenants as well as residential.</p>
<p><span><span>Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said he envisaged rental payments proportionate with rental income in these reduced circumstances would be part of the commercial tenancy </span></span>discussions.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU">The president of the REIA, Adrian Kelly said while he is very supportive of the Government's efforts, the REIA was disappointed</span> with the simplistic approach of the Prime Minister’s message.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">He suggested the PM's message "ignores the tenancy arrangement and thus raises more questions than it answers."</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“Real estate agents are the middle persons who facilitate the agreement between landlords and tenants and manage it as well as the property.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU">“There are some 70,000 property managers, principals, real estate agents and representatives across Australia.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU">"</span>Tenants don’t negotiate with landlords.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU">“Banks have already indicated that they are </span>offering customers the option to defer home loan repayments for up to six months<span lang="EN-AU">.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">“We need to address the support of agents so that what the Prime Minister wants, in terms of landlords and tenants - finding a solution to get through the crisis, can be achieved.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">“Estate agents will work very hard to facilitate the role between landlord and tenant, and to do this they need income.”</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU">“I note that National Cabinet is still to consider details,” concluded Mr Kelly.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU"> </span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
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