<p>The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.</p>

<p>Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.</p>

<p>The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.</p>

<p>The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.</p>

<p>Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.</p>

<p>Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.</p>

<p>Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.</p>

<p data-end="345" data-start="110">The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.</p>

<p data-end="689" data-start="347">Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.</p>

<p data-end="689" data-start="347">Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.</p>


Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

<p>Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.</p>

<p>The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.</p>

<p>The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" /></p>

<p>SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.</p>

<p>“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.</p>

<p>“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" /></p>

<p>The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.</p>

<p>Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.</p>

<p>COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" /></p>

<p>“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.</p>

<p>The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.</p>

<p>The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.</p>

<p>Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a></em></p>


First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.</p>

<p>The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.</p>

<p>SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”</p>

<p>The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" /></p>

<p>The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.</p>

<p>A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.</p>

<p>Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" /></p>

<p>The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.</p>

<p>Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.</p>

<p>The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.</p>


First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

<p>Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."</p>

<p>Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;</p>


Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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<p data-end="157" data-start="0">The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.</p>

<p data-end="459" data-start="159"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.</p>

<p data-end="459" data-start="159">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]</p>

<p data-end="651" data-start="461"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.</p>

<p data-end="950" data-start="653">Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.</p>

<p data-end="1081" data-start="952">“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.</p>

<p data-end="1081" data-start="952">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]</p>

<p data-end="1307" data-start="1083">Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.</p>

<p data-end="1522" data-start="1309">The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.</p>

<p data-end="1522" data-start="1309">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]</p>

<p data-end="1714" data-start="1524">Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.</p>

<p data-end="1945" data-start="1716">The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.</p>

<p data-end="1945" data-start="1716">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]</p>

<p data-end="2220" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="1947">More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.</p>
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<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]</p>


SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

APRA

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<div>APRA released its quarterly property exposure figures today for the period ended 30 September 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If there has been a slowdown in lending, sheesh, it's hard to make out from the chart. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total domestic residential property exposures increased by +7.9 percent from a year ago to a new high of $1.46 trillion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Exposures are now some +130 percent higher than they were in 2008.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The growth in exposure to investors has been stopped in its tracks, however, with new loans to investors down 14 per cent from a year ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, owner-occupier loans stepped in to breach the gap, with exposures rising by +12.9 percent over the year to September, and the value of new loans to homebuyers rising by some +14 percent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In short, lenders have switched focus from investors to homebuyers.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/12/01/APRA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="x_separator"><img src="/images/2016/12/01/APRA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>The regulator has taken a number of measures to limit riskier lending.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>For example, loans of 90 percent or higher loan-to-value ratio (LVR) are now just 8.5 percent of the market, down from 22 percent in 2009. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thus, most borrowers are using substantial deposits, whether borrowed from parents or from existing loans (some may even be saving deposits, who knows?!). </div>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/12/01/APRA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2016/12/01/APRA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="x_separator"> </div>
<br><div>Low-doc loans and loans approved outside serviceability are also now a small segment of lending.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has been a sharp pullback in the number and value of interest only loans over the past year, with this sector of the market dropping by 15 per cent from a year ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/12/01/APRA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<br><div>Buried in the small print there were some upward revisions to previously reported interest only loans reported by one institution. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>While exposures to investors has decreased, there does not seem to be much clarity surrounding the categorisation of outstanding loans (as evidenced by previous revisions), and as such in aggregate there may be more investors in the market than implied.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The average loan size over the year increased from $244,000 to $255,000. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Lenders switch focus from investors to homebuyers

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
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<div>Won't spend too much time on this, as the Financial Aggregates figures relate to before APRA's latest round of changes and therefore the landscape has once again shifted. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank's latest figures showed credit growth of 0.3 percent in February, following on from a result of just 0.2 percent in January. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Housing credit increased by 0.6 percent in the month, but both business and personal credit growth were negative.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/4/RBA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/4/RBA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the year to February housing credit increased by 6.4 percent down from 7.3 percent a year ago, with investor credit rising a notch further to 6.7 percent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Annual credit growth slowed to 5 percent from 6.6 percent a year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/4/RBA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/4/RBA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Business credit growth in particular has slowed from 6.5 percent a year ago to just 3.7 percent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are many ways to fund business expansion,of course, but this doesn't necessarily bode well for the business investment outlook. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/4/RBA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/4/RBA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br>As a result, housing now accounts for a record 61.7 percent of outstanding credit.</div>
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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/4/RBA4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/4/RBA4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>There was a further $1 billion of housing loan purpose switching taking the total switched to owner-occupier from investor loans since July 2015 to $50 billion. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/4/RBA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/4/RBA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br>And housing credit outstanding increased to $1.65 trillion by February 2017.<br><br>More measures have since been taken to slow the creation of new interest-only loans.</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"> </div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Housing credit growth slows

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<div><span>APRA released its latest Monthly Banking Statistics for June 2017 yesterday, detailing information on the banking business of individual banks within the domestic market.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Further strong mortgage growth of +0.63 per cent was reported taking the total for outstanding housing loans to a fresh high of $1.57 trillion.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>The figures officially reported were $1,107,754 million (+0.73 per cent) for owner-occupier mortgages and $552,270 million (+0.44 per cent) for investment mortgages outstanding.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Thus investment mortgages now officially account for 35.2 per cent of banking loan books, classification issues notwithstanding. </span></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></strong></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Investor loan books</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looking specifically at investor loans, it's clear that none of the major banks is close to the arbitrary 10 per cent 'speed limit' or annual growth cap imposed by the regulator.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As you can see, of the major lenders Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC) is ramping up its investment loan exposure at the present time. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/banks.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/banks.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>Indeed, Westpac (WBC) is presently expanding both sectors of its mortgage book, and has the largest exposure to investment loans overall at $146.8 billion, although Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has a more substantial loan book in aggregate.</div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/APRA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/APRA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Although the majors have wound back growth in investment loans, some other lenders continue to exceed the 10 per cent growth cap comfortably.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Additionally certain lenders have loan books that are exposed to markets at risk of mortgage arrears, including regional Queensland.</div>
<p> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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No major bank is close to APRA'S 10 percent mortgage growth speed limit

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<p>The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has today released a speech, ‘Enhancing Australia’s superannuation system: a vision of a sustainable future’, delivered by deputy chairman Helen Rowell to the 2017 ASFA Conference in Sydney this morning.<br><br>In her speech, Rowell presented a vision for a stronger superannuation system that meets the ongoing needs of its members, and explained how changes to the prudential framework will help to deliver this.<br><br>Mrs Rowell’s comments included: <br><br></p>
<ul>
<li>‘APRA is also taking steps to make sure that the prudential framework supports trustees delivering quality outcomes for superannuation fund members, complementing the Government’s proposed reforms. We will shortly release a consultation package outlining proposed revisions to the prudential framework, including changes to promote greater transparency, especially around expenditure, and implement member outcomes assessments for all funds.’</li>
<li>‘…the changes proposed in our upcoming consultation package are designed to put pressure on poor performers – irrespective of industry segment – to lift their game or, if the needed improvement is not possible within a reasonable timeframe, to gracefully exit the industry.’<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>
</li>
<li>‘…at what point does the level of choice become more a headache than a help? It seems legitimate to ask why the industry offers members an average of nearly 200 investment options when many funds have a significant proportion of members in their default MySuper products and hence relatively few members in each o&gt;f the many choice investment options on offer.’</li>
<li>‘Our preliminary analysis of outcomes across the industry using a wide range of metrics suggests, however, that there may be some correlation between enhanced member outcomes and board composition. The trustees with outcomes at the better end of the industry, on average, appear to be those that have appointed independent or non-affiliated directors.’</li>
</ul>
<p>The full speech is available on the website at:<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br><a id="LPlnk11598" href="http://www.apra.gov.au/Speeches/Pages/Enhancing-Australias-superannuation-system.aspx" target="_blank">http://www.apra.gov.au/Speeches/Pages/Enhancing-Australias-superannuation-system.aspx</a></p>
<p> </p>
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Enhancing Australia’s superannuation system, a vision of a sustainable future: APRA's Helen Rowell

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<p>The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) released its December 2015 quarterly data on property exposures by Australian authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs).</p>
<p>The data is always interesting to analyse in order to get further insight into the current state of the mortgage market.</p>
<p>The first data point is residential term loans to households which have a total outstanding balance of $1.384 trillion which has increase by 8.9% over the past year. The total value of outstanding owner occupier loans is $884 billion having increased by 12.8% over the past year and accounting for 63.9% of all outstanding loans. The remaining 36.1% of outstanding loans are to investors, having increased by 2.6% year-on-year to $500 billion. </p>
<p>Growth in outstanding loans has tilted away from investors to owner occupiers.  After year-on-year growth in investor loans peaked at 18.2% in March 2015 it has slowed to 2.6% growth while owner occupier credit troughed at an annual rate of 2.2% in March 2015, before rebounding to the current annual rate of 12.8% (the fastest annual growth rate since June 2010).</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/Chart-1-3-580x204.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/Chart-1-3-580x204.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>In terms of the types of loans outstanding, 42.3% have an offset facility, 39.3% are interest-only, 0.2% are reverse mortgages, 2.0% are low documentation loans and 0.1% are other non-standard loans.  The year-on-year change across these loan types has been recorded at: +22.0% for loans with an offset facility, +11.6% for interest-only loans, +1.6% for reverse mortgages, -16.6% for low documentation loans and -5.7% for other non-standard loans.  Importantly, the value of outstanding residential loans for low-documentation loans is now at a record low.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/Chart-2-3-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/Chart-2-3-580x207.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The data highlights that the average outstanding balance on a residential loan is $248,800, up by 1.0% over the quarter and by 4.4% year-on-year.  Reverse mortgages ($95,700), low-documentation loans ($192,800) and other non-standard loans ($195,900) all have much lower outstanding balances.  Meanwhile, loans with offset facilities ($303,700) and interest-only loans ($330,000) have significantly higher outstanding balances. </p>
<p>The year-on-year changes to the outstanding loan balances have been recorded as follows: +7.2% for loans with an offset facility (fastest year-on-year growth since June 2011), +4.9% for interest-only loans, +2.8% for reverse mortgages (slowest year-on-year growth on record), -1.5% for low-documentation loans and -6.8% for other non-standard loans.  The data shows a slowing in the growth of outstanding loan values for reverse mortgages while riskier lending types (low-documentation and other non-standard) have seen an ongoing fall in outstanding loan amounts.</p>
<p>While the previous data looked at the total value of residential mortgages outstanding, the following data focuses on new residential mortgages over the final quarter of 2015.</p>
<p>Over the December 2015 quarter there was a record-high $98.130 billion worth of new residential mortgages approved, $69.091 billion worth were owner occupied with the remaining $29.040 billion being for investment purposes.  Year-on-year the value of new owner occupier loans is 28.8% higher, its greatest change on record, while investor mortgage lending is -24.9% lower, its largest fall on record.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/Chart-3-3-580x212.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/Chart-3-3-580x212.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Looking at the types of mortgages approved over the quarter: a record low 0.3% were low-documentation, 37.0% were interest only which was its lowest proportion since March 2013, 0.1% were other non-standard loans, 47.4% were originated by third parties and 3.7% were loans approved outside of serviceability.</p>
<p>Focussing on the year-on-year change; low documentation loan approvals are -41.8% lower (their largest year-on-year fall since March 2013), interest-only loan approvals are -11.0% lower (their largest year-on-year fall since March 2009), other non-standard loan approvals are up 28.2% (their largest year-on-year increase since December 2013), third party originated loans are up 6.2% and loans approved outside of serviceability are up 41.3%.  The data indicates there has been a significant pull-back in low-documentation loans and interest-only loans. </p>
<p>At the same time, non-standard and loans approved outside of serviceability are rising significantly which may be a potential point of concern for APRA.  Although they make-up a small overall proportion of lending it will be something to keep a close watch on over the coming quarters especially since both have also recorded a quarterly increase.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/Chart-4-3-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/Chart-4-3-580x207.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Finally the data breaks out new lending by loan-to-value-ratio (LVR) bands.  Over the quarter, 23.4% of all new loans had an LVR of less than 60%, 53.4% had an LVR of between 60% and 80%, 14.5% had an LVR of 80% to 90% and 8.7% had an LVR of more than 90% which was its lowest proportion on record. </p>
<p>Looking at the year-on-year changes, the value of lending for LVRs of less than 60% was 16.1% higher, LVRs of between 60% and 80% increased 6.1%, LVRs of 80% to 90% increased 14.3% and LVRs greater than 90% fell by -20.1% which was the largest year-on-year fall June 2010.  Based on the data it is clear that lenders have been tightening lending requirements over recent quarters which has led to a sharp decline in new mortgage lending for LVRs above 90%.</p>
<p>Overall the data indicates that the market is responding to regulatory changes in the lending space implemented over the past year.  There is less new lending to high LVRs, fewer low documentation and interest-only mortgages being written. </p>
<p>On the other-hand some other potentially more risky lending types such as non-standard and outside of serviceability loans are continuing to rise.  It will be interesting to see whether APRA starts to look to crack-down on some of these types of lending in order to ensure stability within the mortgage market.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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APRA data shows a further tightening of lending standards: Cameron Kusher

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<p>At the end of 2014, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) wrote to mortgage lenders reinforcing what they saw as sound mortgage lending practices. </p>
<p>The key points from that letter were that serviceability policy limits should be based on mortgage rates at least 2 percent above the product loan rate with a minimum floor assessment of 7 percent. </p>
<p>The second point was that APRA was going to impose a speed limit on investment credit growth to lenders of 10 percent per annum. It is important to note investment credit refers to total outstanding mortgages not new lending.</p>
<p>The impact of these policies was likely to be that as interest rates fell, more buyers weren’t encouraged into the market because mortgages were being granted based on the ability to repay a mortgage at 7 percent interest which was well above standard rates at that time.  The other impact was that the 10% cap on investor housing credit growth would slow demand from the investment segment as there was less new lending to go around.</p>
<p>While the serviceability limits mean that new first time buyers are unlikely to come into the market as interest rates fall, it does nothing to discourage current owners from buying investment properties or upgrading homes.  Given that the vast majority of home loans are on a variable rate, interest rate cuts have an almost immediate impact on household budgets. </p>
<p>While the serviceability limits won’t result in marginal purchasers entering the market, as interest rates have come down it appears that home owners that weren’t previously considering buying an investment property or upgrading have come out of the woodwork and decided to purchase.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/21/Chart-1-1-580x176.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p> <img src="/images/2016/09/21/Chart-1-1-580x176.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>It is somewhat difficult to gauge exactly how effective the serviceability changes have been, but the 10% cap on investor housing credit led to a significant decline in growth in lending to that market segment.  Shortly following the implementation of the investor lending cap we also saw lenders place an interest rate premium on investment mortgages.  This muddied the waters somewhat because a lot of mortgages which were previously designated as investment mortgages were reclassified as owner occupier mortgages. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, annual investor housing credit growth peaked at 10.8 percent in May 2015 according to Reserve Bank data and the latest data shows that it has slowed to growth of 4.8% over the year to July 2016.  Investor housing credit growth has slowed dramatically since its recent peak following these curbs and over the past year has increased at its slowest annual pace since November 2009.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/21/Chart-2-1-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/09/21/Chart-2-1-580x210.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Housing finance data which tracks new lending, has showed a bounce in new lending to investors over the three months to July 2016.  Over that period, the monthly value of investment lending has increased by 9.2 percent from $10.8 billion in April 2016 to $11.8 billion in July 2016, new lending to investors is at its highest level since August 2015.  With investor housing credit growth well below 10 percent per annum, it is clear that lenders have scope to now offer more lending to the investment segment and clearly there are investors grabbing that opportunity.  </p>
<p>But why is this the case when you have a record supply of new housing under construction, record low rental yields and a historically weak rental market? We are about to delve into some possible reasons why, for some investors, housing investment still makes sense however, investors looking to purchase residential properties should be aware of the potential risks on the horizon.</p>
<p><strong>Capital growth</strong></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/21/Chart-3-1-580x211.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/09/21/Chart-3-1-580x211.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Since the current growth phase commenced in June 2012, combined capital city home values have increased by 39.9%.  As the above chart shows, the growth has been very uneven with Sydney and Melbourne leading the way in terms of value growth and rises relatively moderate elsewhere.  After such a long growth phase, the question must be asked as to how much longer the growth can continue for in Sydney and Melbourne, particularly considering the affordably obstacles that are becoming more pronounced and the diminishing yield profile caused by the fact that dwelling values are rising at a much faster pace than rents.</p>
<p><strong>Housing supply</strong></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/21/Chart-4-1-580x197.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/09/21/Chart-4-1-580x197.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The supply of new housing under construction is at a record-high with an historic high level of units under construction.  The 2011 national Census showed that units were much more likely to be occupied by renters than houses.  At that time, and across homes occupied on Census night, 21.8 percent of houses and 57.8% of units were occupied by renters. </p>
<p>Of course housing choices are likely to have shifted somewhat since that time but the fact is likely to remain that units are much more likely to end up as rental accommodation than houses are.  As a result a large proportion of these units recently built and under construction will end up as rental accommodation.  In many cities we are also already seeing a significant difference in the rate of growth for houses as opposed to units.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/21/Chart-5-1-580x212.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/09/21/Chart-5-1-580x212.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Rental markets are showing the weakest growth conditions on record, in fact, capital city rental rates are -0.5 percent lower over the past year.  In the two cities where the highest level of investment activity is occurring, Sydney and Melbourne, rents are unchanged in Sydney and 2.4 percent higher in Melbourne.  For units specifically, rental rates are 0.7 percent higher over the year across the combined capital cities with rental rates 1.8 percent higher for Sydney units and 1.3 percent higher for Melbourne units.</p>
<p>There is a large supply of housing stock that is going to be added to the market over the coming year(s) in these cities and others.  Most of the supply is in the form of units, which as shown are more likely to be rental properties.  Subsequently it seems as if landlords are set to find it more difficult to keep renters and may have to reduce rents in order to keep their properties tenanted over the coming years.  Higher vacancy rates may be felt by those landlords who own units that are in need of repair or refurbishment as tenants look for higher quality or new rental accommodation that may be more comfortable at a similar rental rate.</p>
<p><strong>Rental returns</strong></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/21/Chart-6-580x209.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/09/21/Chart-6-580x209.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Rental yields are expressed as gross figures so the net returns are likely to be much lower than the headline figure.  The gross rental yield has been forced lower over recent years due to little rental growth (and falls in some areas) coupled with comparatively high levels of home value growth. As a result, at the end of August 2016 the combined capital cities gross rental yield was recorded at an historic low 3.3 percent with figures of 3.0 percent in Sydney and 2.9 percent in Melbourne.  </p>
<p>A couple of things to note about the yield figures; firstly they assume that a property is occupied for 100 percent of the year and secondly they are based off current values, most investors would not borrow 100 percent of the loan value for an investment property.  Given these two points, lower than 100 percent occupancy would reduce the yield however, borrowing less than 100% of the property’s value would increase the yield.</p>
<p>As pointed out earlier, units are much more likely than houses to be used for rental accommodation and there is a record pipeline of unit stock under construction.  Gross rental yields for units specifically are higher than those for houses and recorded at 4.1 percent for combined capital city units, 3.9 percent in Sydney and 4.0% in Melbourne.  Each of these figures are at historic lows and have trended lower over recent years.  Nevertheless, when you factor in a level of equity used to purchase investment properties the returns are still far superior to most other asset classes.</p>
<p><strong>Total returns</strong></p>
<p>Click to enlarge</p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/09/21/Chart-7-580x208.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>When you factor in rental returns and capital growth, the total returns from residential property remain attractive.  Over the past year, total gross returns across the combined capital cities have been recorded at 10.7% with each capital city other than Perth and Darwin recording total returns in excess of 7.0% over the past year. Since home values ended their most recent declines in May 2012, combined capital city total returns have been recorded at 62.7% and no capital city has recorded returns of less than 25% over the period</p>
<p><strong>Other asset classes</strong></p>
<p>A major reason why investors remain attracted to residential property is due to the fact that with low interest rates and low economic growth internationally, returns have reduced.  Based on the most recent end of month data, 10 year Australian Government bonds were yielding 1.88 percent, 1 year term deposit rates were 2.65 percent and total returns from the ASX 200 were 9.3 percent.  The safe investment classes of bonds and term deposits are providing extremely low returns.  At the same time total returns from equities have been much stronger however, equities are a more volatile asset class than housing.</p>
<p>While the housing market has provided relatively strong investment returns over recent years and may continue to provide comparatively strong returns over the coming years, there are certainly some headwinds that investors need to be aware of.  Keep in mind too that the purchase cost of a residential property is significantly greater than investing in other asset classes.  The additions to housing supply underway and the weakening rental market should provide a level of caution for investors. </p>
<p>Given the cost of housing and the looming challenges we would expect that although there is likely to be some further uplift in investment demand it is unlikely to result in growth in investor credit to head back towards the 10%pa speed limit.  Investors will also need to be much more selective around which properties they choose given achieving strong returns are seemingly going to be more difficult to achieve over the coming years given the looming headwinds described within.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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Investors re-entering the housing market but should do so with caution: Cameron Kusher

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<p><span>April 24th, 2015 was a significant date in the Australian property investment landscape. Why? On this date, APRA (the Australian Macro Prudential Authority – an institution who helps regulates the rules of play for banks and other kinds of lenders) implemented some new rules / codes of conducts for lenders to adhere to.</span></p>
<p><span>The new rules mean that for some lenders who previously had very liberal lending rules and practices for local Australian property investors; had to tighten them up to comply with APRA’s policies.</span></p>
<p><span>Whilst it is still early days; we have seen a number of “Big 4</span><span>″</span><span> lenders, as well as many other tier #2 and tier #3 lenders, begin to implement more restrictive borrowing rules for investor-based loans.</span></p>
<p><span>These have come in all shapes and sizes, such as (but not limited to):</span></p>
<p><span>- Restricting maximum LVR (loan to value ratio) allowance for ‘investment’ category mortgages from, say, 90/10 to 80/20. Part and parcel with this has been some lenders refusing to allow LMI (Lender’s Mortgage Insurance) as a capitalised cost on to loans at those higher (say, 90/10) LVR ratios.</span></p>
<p><span>- Removal of discounted interest rate package deals for their mortgage products; again, for investor-only mortgages (many lenders have retained discounts for owner-occupied, or PPOR – Principal place of residence – loan products)</span></p>
<p><span>- In light of further interest rate cuts from the RBA in recent months; some lenders have; whilst passing on rate ‘cuts’ not actually reduced their ‘calculation of repayment capability’ for mortgage applicants. What this means is, let’s say when interest rates were 0.50 basis points higher, several months ago, and lenders were calculating an applicant’s serviceability based on a scenario where interest rates spiraled to say, 7% (they run these calculations as standard for all applicants); typically when RBA rates drop by 0.50 basis points; so too should the lender’s serviceability calculation assumptions (I.e. their calculation should be using a rate of say 6.50%, not 7%). However, lenders in recent months have maintained say that 7% figure in that calculation.</span></p>
<p><span>These changes have substantial implications for would-be property investors: </span></p>
<p><span>1) The reduced LVR allowance by lenders means borrowers need to cough up more initial deposit. Say you wanted to borrow to buy a $300K investment property. Some lenders at 90/10 LVR acceptance would only require your $30K (10%) deposit, plus purchase costs. A drop to 80/20 means borrowers need to find another $30K to make up a $60K deposit.</span></p>
<p><span>2) Removal of discounted interest rates also is a deterrent to first-time investors entering the market, as their interest repayments will now be slightly higher than what home owners pay. There could thus be a cooling of investors being active in many markets throughout Australia.</span></p>
<p><span>3) For investors who remain active or don’t perceive the above two changes to inhibit their ambitions; they’ll continue with their property investment purchases. However, they simply won’t be allowed to borrow as much. If banks are calculating serviceability based on a higher ‘worst case scenario’ forecast; the banks won’t lend as much. To some investors, this could be the difference between being allowed to buy a $500K investment property, to now only perhaps $320K – $350K. If this eventuates, this will be a game-changer in the market as it’ll wipe a lot of the Sydney and Melbourne potential investor buyers out (who can play in the Sydney and Melbourne markets with &gt;$350K, these days) and into lower-median markets such as Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart, and some regional centers.</span></p>
<p><span>The role of foreign investors in amongst APRA rules for local lenders: </span></p>
<p><span>And what of the foreign investors? What will be the effect on foreign investor demand of APRA-inflicted local bank and non-bank lender restrictions on investment-based loans? This is hard to infer with any kind of concrete certainty; due to all data relating to foreign residential property investors (including actual volumes of them; types of financing etc.) not being readily available to the public.</span></p>
<p><span>As such, there is already speculation and confusion on just how many foreign investors are using the following kinds of financing for their Australian purchases:</span></p>
<p><span>a) Pure cash from overseas sources/local funds, to buy (no loans required). In this instance; APRA regulations on local lenders will have zero consequence on foreign buyers; or;</span></p>
<p><span>b) Financing/loans given by their local country’s lenders (in these instances; the lending rules imposed by APRA on local Australian institutions don’t apply – meaning foreigners may continue to have access to great cost-efficient mortgage products, for the purchase of Australian property); or;</span></p>
<p><span>c) Foreign buyers who are accessing local Australian lender mortgage products. For this type of foreign buyer; the APRA rules will have the same consequence as for local buyers.</span></p>
<p><span>When comparing drivers for foreign investors to local investors, we must be mindful that there are so many more variables beyond purely the loan or finance structure of choice, that affects their overall attraction to buying property in this country. For instance; exchange rates, FIRB levies or taxes they must pay, the type and condition of the housing stock they have access to, to purchase, are just a few of the many other factors related to foreign investor demand in this country’s residential housing stock.</span></p>
<p><span>So – and I must stress this is pure speculation based on the resources and news I’ve been reading on this subject – there are two quite likely outcomes I would speculate as a result of the tighter APRA rules on local lenders, in regards to the effect of these on foreign investor interest in the market, and on residential property values as a result:</span></p>
<p><span>1) Local buyers (investors, not home owners) get scared off and this takes a substantial amount of ‘heat’ out of 'most' markets. I say ‘most’, because the exception (as in; the markets that will still remain hot despite the APRA rulings) will be the foreign-investor ‘obsessed’ postcodes around Australia. These are the suburbs built in areas where foreign buyers and local buyers alike; both highly desire to purchase in. I say this because though we don’t know what foreign investors are using what finance structures; a more consistent and reliable metric of measurement here, is the actual postcodes they take interest in buying within.</span></p>
<p><span>2) Or, more markets will remain hot anyway. Why? Because those wannabe local first home buyers (FHB’s) who were thinking of applying the recently growing strategy of ‘Keep renting and buy an investment property now instead of a home; to kick start some growth so I can have enough money for a home deposit later on’, will throw that strategic approach straight out the window and say ‘nope, forget investment, the APRA rules don’t make it worth the effort; I’m going to go for that home purchase straight off the bat; better rates, discounts, and possibly LVR’s (depending on their chosen lender…) so I might as well go ‘all-in’ and buy my dream home’. </span></p>
<p><span>Unfortunately, for FHB’s who want to buy into suburbs that also happen to double as hotbeds for foreign buyers; the same bubbling of high housing prices will remain, and continue further. However, in this instance, opportunity could present for FHB’s buying in non-foreign-buyer postcodes, as the local investor volumes will dilute, which should deflate the bubble in those other postcodes enough to help FHB’s.</span></p>
<p><span>So, if either of these outcomes eventuate, I think it can only be a good thing for FHB’s, and less so for local investors. Foreign investors will likely remain unperturbed in their relentless pursuit of the postcodes that they so desire.</span></p>
<p><span>This means that in postcodes where the top 10-20 schools are, per-state (the ones where the Chinese investors specifically, are most active); prices will likely remain as high as ever.</span></p>
<p> Cameron McEvoy is a NSW-based property investor and maintains a blog, Property Correspondent. He can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertycorrespondent.com.au/contact-us/" target="_blank">here</a>.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><br></span></p>
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Liberal local lending rules tightened: Cameron McEvoy

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Heading into the new season, changes to funding by APRA will have an immense effect on all the developments that are due to compete for investment purchases of off-plan apartments.</span></p>
<p><span>Spring will be the start of the wick being lit for the eventual ‘POP’.</span></p>
<p><span>However APRA is not the only leveler of the market: I believe “property valuers” will begin to cover their backs as they dish-out valuations. They have already started to do so, as they become more and more aware of the glut of property now being completed. Coupled with this are rental guarantees and inflated commissions.  </span></p>
<p>Here's my top five tips for spring. </p>
<p><strong>1. Owner occupiers should sell, sell, sell.</strong></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Investors shouldn't buy off-plan properties and if they really want to get in; waiting till the end of the year means they will reap greater rewards as there will be close to 60,000 properties completed across Sydney and Brisbane alone. </span></p>
<p><strong>2. First home buyers should consider stable property, not new</strong></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">First home buyers should approach and rent where they want to live as rentals across Sydney are lowering in price monthly and vacancy rates are also increasing monthly. Invest where money will be made; there are hubs outside of city centres with great steady capital growth possibilities and great low vacancy rates. </span></p>
<p><strong>3. Some BUT NOT ALL regional towns have and will continue to perform well for a few years to come</strong></p>
<p><span>Some of the markets we have identified and have purchased property in have: steady capital growth, on average 6% yields + and vacancy rates well below 1.5%. </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The great appeal for some of my young family is also the great entry points with some properties below $200,000 making it manageable and not such a burden. </span></p>
<p><strong>4. Parramatta will be flooded with new apartments as they complete in the next 1-4 months</strong></p>
<p><span>Properties in the Inner West of Sydney are also taking longer to rent out as renters have a greater choice. The western suburbs outside of Parramatta have had a huge build-up of granny-flats as well as new apartments. Again putting pressure on achieving yields and renting property out quickly. </span></p>
<p><strong>5. Stablished homes are primed for achieving great sales figures </strong></p>
<p><span>Many buyers are still convinced that Sydney is hedged from a property bubble pop. I see a new development proposal just about every day and it startles me that the mainstream media still report under-supply running out of land and huge population growth. Frankly, I see the opposite. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><em><span>EDWIN ALMEIDA</span> is licensee in charge of <a href="https://www.just-think.com.au/" target="_blank">Just Think Real Estate</a>.<a href="https://www.just-thin.com.au/"><br></a></em></p>
<p><em>He is also the creator of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/JustThinkProperty" target="_blank">Oz Real Estate.TV</a> and a presenter for <a href="https://propertyinvestingvault.com/" target="_blank">propertyinvestingvault.com</a>.</em></p>
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Springtime property valuers best cover their backs: Edwin Almeida's five tips for spring 2015 

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<p>APRA reported that residential housing loan ADI exposures continued to power on, up to $1.49 trillion in the December quarter (and beyond $1.5 trillion in January).</p>
<p>Owner-occupied loans totalled $971 billion, comprising 65 percent of outstanding residential property exposures, an increase of $86.5 billion or 9.8 percent from the prior year.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the total of outstanding investor loans was $522.4 billion (the balancing 35 per cent of outstanding exposures), for an increase of $23.5 billion or 4.7 percent from last year.</p>
<p>New investment loan approvals were down by 5.8 percent from the prior year, yet still accounted for a punchy 34.2 percent of total new residential loans. </p>
<p>Loans to investors appear very likely to be the target of a crackdown as 2017 rolls on.</p>
<p>As I looked at in a little more detail here, each of the major lenders appear likely to be approaching the speed limit for the growth in their mortgage books, including those that have lodged revisions to historical figures (since these will be adjusted for). </p>
<div id="post-body-5935845614051499789" class="post-body entry-content">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/06/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/06/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong><br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Impairment rise for ADIs</span></strong></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>I'm not going to provide much detailed analysis or opinion on this site, but it is worth noting the following from APRA's reported headline figures for ADIs.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>-impaired facilities and past due items as a proportion of gross loans and advances was 0.92 percent as at Q4 2016 (an increase from 0.86 percent in the prior year);</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>-specific provisions hit $7.3 billion at Q4 2016, an increase of $0.8 billion or 12.9 percent from the prior year; and</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>-specific provisions as a proportion of gross loans and advances was 0.24 percent at Q4 2016, an increase from 0.22 percent in the prior year.</span></div>
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<div>To summarise:<br><br>
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<div class="separator"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/06/APRA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/06/APRA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></em></div>
<div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: APRA </span></em></div>
<div> </div>
<div>This should demand your attention, since it indicates that the cyclical low for impairments has now passed. </div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Change to new lending</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>APRA's figures show that riskier "low doc" and other non-standard lending now comprise only a small and decreasing share of the residential mortgage market, which is a positive development.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Furthermore, most new loans have a loan to value ratio (LVR) of 80 per cent or lower, meaning that - theoretically at least - the majority of new buyers have a significant buffer built in to their purchase. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/06/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/06/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>A potential challenge to this case is that in many instances those using 20 percent deposits have likely sourced their deposits from existing residential property assets, and therefore the risk in such loans may be higher than it appears at first blush. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Interest-only loans, while accounting for a smaller share of the market than has previously been the case, still represent a very significant chunk of new lending at 36.6 percent (even if the total of interest-only lending for the quarter of $162 billion represents a decrease of 10.5 percent from the prior year).</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/06/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/06/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>The inherent risk here is that when these loans reach the end of their interest-only period the repayments may jump higher in the event that the loan cannot be rolled over into a new interest-only period, a point which has aroused the scrutiny of short sellers.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Summarily, residential property exposures now comprise a very significant sum of interest-only mortgages in Australia. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/06/PARA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/06/PARA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: APRA</span></em></div>
<div> </div>
<div>If mortgage rates were to rise, of course, then these risks may be multiplied. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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APRA reports non-performing loans on the rise

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<p>First application Loan-to-Valuation Ratio (LVR) Index from Veda and CoreLogic reveals improved financial security for Australian lenders.</p>
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<p>The national average of application loan-to-valuation ratio (LVR) across Australia is currently tracking at 74.3%, according to the new Index from property data and analytics experts CoreLogic, and Veda, Australia and New Zealand’s leading provider of consumer and commercial data and insights and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Equifax. </p>
<h3>Application Loan-to-Valuation Ratio National</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/11/30/2016-11-04--loanvaluation--image2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/11/30/2016-11-04--loanvaluation--image2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Released tomorrow for the first time, the Index draws on the CoreLogic median dwelling values compared against the median residential loan application amount from Veda.  The result is a timely indicator of application loan-to-valuation ratios across Australia over time. </p>
<p>The CoreLogic and Veda measure of application LVRs provides a geographically specific indication on mortgage leverage at a granular level at the time of application. </p>
<p>While the current application LVR is 1.7 percentage points higher than in 2011 (72.6 percent), it is significantly lower than when it peaked in 2013, when the average application LVR was measured at 78.9 percent.</p>
<p>Moses Samaha, Veda’s General Manager of Commercial and Property Solutions, said the new Index would leverage Veda and CoreLogic’s data and insights to provide more detailed analysis of market conditions. </p>
<p>“We are excited to be partnering with CoreLogic to offer more detailed insight into the housing market and level of leverage households are typically committing to,” Mr Samaha said. </p>
<p>“In the past 12 months to September, we have seen the national median dwelling valuation rise 5.5% and the median residential loan enquiry amount rise 3.4%,” Mr Samaha added. </p>
<p>Geographically, the application LVR trend is being driven downwards by higher equity levels and substantial household wealth across the premium housing markets of Australia, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney. However, Sydney has recently experienced an upswing in average application LVRs. </p>
<h3>Application Loan-to-Valuation Ratio Sydney Median</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/11/30/2016-11-04--loanvaluation--image1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/11/30/2016-11-04--loanvaluation--image1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>“It’s common for capital cities with weaker housing market conditions to experience an increase in average application LVR. For example, Perth’s application LVR has jumped from 72.8 prcent to 77.1 percent in the past five years, sitting 2.8 percentage points above the national average,” Mr Samaha said.</p>
<h3>Application Loan-to-Valuation Ratio Sept 2011 v Sept 2016</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/11/30/2016-11-04--loanvaluation--image4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/11/30/2016-11-04--loanvaluation--image4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>“Sydney dwelling values have increased by almost 95% since the beginning of 2009 which has created a large amount of equity for those who have owned a dwelling during this time.  High equity is likely one of the key factors that has pushed application LVRs lower in Sydney and to a lesser extent, Melbourne,” Mr Samaha added. </p>
<p>Average application LVRs in the other capital cities show mixed results. Application LVRs in Canberra and Hobart have leveled off recently on the back of improving housing market conditions. Brisbane has also seen the application LVR trend lower, reducing from a peak of 80.5% in October 2013 to the current reading of 77.7 percent. </p>
<p>According to the Veda and CoreLogic findings, the trend towards lower application LVR estimates since 2013 can be attributed to a number of factors.  </p>
<p>The increasing volume of refinancing and mortgage top-ups for renovations or home extensions is likely to be a key factor driving application LVR measurements lower.  </p>
<p>First home buyers are also likely to be impacting the data. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics housing finance data, the number of first home buyers as a proportion of all owner-occupier housing finance commitments has declined from approximately 17 percent in early 2013 to a recent low of 12.9% in March 2016. First home buyers generally have smaller deposits and their lack of activity in the market may be pushing overall application LVR’s lower. </p>
<p>Tim Lawless, Head of Research at CoreLogic Asia Pacific, said the level of application LVR is an indicator of prudent lending standards and financial stability. </p>
<p>“Regulators and policy makers are likely to see the lower application LVR as a positive outcome, which is reflective of a more considered and prudent lending regime,” Mr Lawless said. </p>
<p>“One of the factors contributing to lower application LVRs is the heightened risk assessment many lenders are applying to select housing markets, whereby larger deposits are required to offset higher lending risk.  </p>
<p>“Markets where dwelling values have shown substantial and rapid growth, where supply levels are high, or markets with disproportionate exposure to singular industries, such as mining towns, are typically being assessed by lenders as higher risk. Lenders in these markets are demanding lower LVRs to help minimise their own risk,” Mr Lawless added. </p>
<p>The data from CoreLogic and Veda supports a similar trend in LVR reported by Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, which shows LVRs originating between 60 and 80 percent have comprised a larger proportion of lending.</p>
<p><em>Tim Lawless is head of the CoreLogic research and analytics team and can be contacted <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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