Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

Joel Robinson

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-6" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-2" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-2" dir="auto">
<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-2" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:5a5ab36c-8dd3-454c-b456-c501f22f0eb4-0" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:5a5ab36c-8dd3-454c-b456-c501f22f0eb4-0" dir="auto">
The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
</section>
</section>

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Local Little Bay residents, along with buyers from premium postcodes across Sydney’s affluent Eastern Suburbs, have dominated purchases in developer-builder Urban Property Group’s first Eastern Suburbs apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a>.

The $250 million coastal project, one of the first new developments in the area in several years, has proven particularly popular with downsizers, especially those from Coogee and Bondi. One Double Bay downsizer paid $4.7 million for a four-bedroom penthouse, setting a new local apartment price record in the process.

Buyers have been attracted to the combination of coastal tranquillity, premium design and amenity-rich neighbourhood living. The walkable village setting, along with proximity to three of Sydney’s leading golf courses, New South Wales Golf Club, St Michael’s Golf Club and The Coast Golf Club, has also been a key drawcard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352689]

Built across two low-rise buildings designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hill-thalis-architecture-urban-projects-pty-ltd">Hill Thalis</a> and set along a lush, landscaped green spine, designed by leading landscape architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>, ESTE Little Bay offers a collection of one, two, three and four-bedroom residences with interiors by Richards Stanisich.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> Sales Director, Tom McIvor said the response to ESTE has been "nothing short of extraordinary."

“Buyers have been quick to recognise ESTE as a rare opportunity to invest in a coastal sanctuary that offers both seclusion and connectivity to the heart of Sydney,” McIvor said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352687]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">SRM Residential</a> Senior Director, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">Clayton Ross</a> said the local market has responded incredibly well, driven by ESTE’s exceptional location and the rarity it offers.

“We’ve seen strong interest from a variety of buyer groups, all of whom are drawn to the exclusivity and quality of the build and construction by the 4.5-star iCIRT-rated builder / developer, Urban Property Group. There’s truly nothing else like it along Sydney’s coastline.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352690]

The project also includes robust buyer protections, including Resilience Insurance’s Latent Defects Insurance, providing 10 years of structural cover, and an independent iCIRT-rating of the developer.

“The iCIRT-rating adds another layer of confidence,” Ross added. “Buyers see it as a safeguard for their investment and their lifestyle.” A highlight of ESTE’s offering is its exclusive wellness amenities, including a heated rooftop infinity pool and outdoor heated spa, a state-of-the-art Technogym fitness centre, and a sauna.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a> is topped out and is on track to complete towards the end of 2026, with residents moving in before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112343]

Eastern Suburbs buyers snap up ESTE Little Bay apartments

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

<html><body>
The RBA held at its February 2017 meeting with the cash rate at 1.5 percent.
The hold decision from the RBA was widely anticipated, especially considering the strength in the housing market over the second half of 2016 as well as the consistent rise in investment activity since the latest round of rate cuts in May and August last year. 
With inflation consistently tracking below the RBA’s target range for almost three years, it’s likely that the heat in the housing market is one of the primary reasons why the cash rate hasn’t moved lower in an attempt to stimulate spending and push inflation higher, CoreLogic's Tim Lawless reported.
CoreLogic reported capital city dwelling values were 10.7% higher over the past twelve months, which is a substantially higher growth rate than the 7.4% recorded over the same period a year ago. 
Laing+Simmons Managing Director and REINSW President-elect Leanne Pilkington says the Reserve Bank had neither the justification nor the desire to reduce the official cash rate today after the rate cuts of last year.
Ms Pilkington believes further easing is not needed in the current cycle.
“Obtaining housing finance at attractive terms is already possible for those with the means. It’s those without the means – stuck in the rental cycle or unable to accumulate a suitable deposit – that face the greatest challenge in the market,” Ms Pilkington says.
“And further rate cuts are not a solution to the problem. Between Government and the industry, we need to table some alternative solutions to help people buy their first home.
“From a housing industry perspective, rates are already low and have been for some time, so that piece of the affordability puzzle is in place.
“It’s through other avenues like stamp duty reform that improvements in affordability need to be addressed,” she says.
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

RBA February 2017 rate decision holds rates at record low

<html><body>
There was plenty of news in Australia this week.
The influential NAB Monthly Business Survey had a smiley face (literally) on it for the first time since mid last year, with the index up 5 points to +11.
Business confidence itself was unchanged at +6.
It reported that there had been “a reprieve from the steady moderation in business conditions seen late last year”.
Yet retail, manufacturing and mining performed poorly, with wholesale picking up the slack. Retail was now the weakest sector in the survey.
Translation: consumer confidence is bad. And when you think that consumer spending accounts for nearly 75% of GDP that is certainly cause for concern.
Private sector credit was up 0.7% in December for a 5.6% annual rate of growth, according to the Reserve Bank.
How does one square that with my claims about consumer confidence?
Easy, the credit expansion was chiefly due to a growth in investor loans, which were up at an annual rate of 6.2%.
In fact, over the last three months that rate was edging toward the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority “speed limit” of 10% – coming in about 1% below.
This raises thorny questions for APRA. Does it impose tighter constraints on banks lending to investors – like even higher deposit requirements?
What if growth goes over 10% – do they shift the goalposts?
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-07%20at%2012.54.53%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-07%20at%2012.54.53%20pm.jpg" alt="">
We are used to thinking of central banks as having to perform a balancing act with monetary policy where they don’t let the economy get too hot or too cold, and have to be worried about an interest rate rise causing a sharp contraction/recession.
Perhaps APRA faces an analogous, though new, problem.
If it tightens so-called “macroprudential” standards – like deposit requirements – it risks causing a sharp contraction in housing prices.
And that could lead to forced selling, and pretty soon it could amount to a fire sale.
Or, if you like, a macroprudentially-induced housing run.
Australia’s trade surplus came in at a record A$3.51 billion in December, beating estimates of around A$2.2 billion. This seems like good news. And as they say in baseball “you can’t boo a homerun”.
But the record figure came on the back of a sharp rise in commodity prices, once again highlighting how dependent our economy is on cyclical movements in prices of things we dig out of the ground.
And the RBA will not be pleased at the accompanying leap in the Aussie dollar, which surged past US76 cents on the news.
The RBA puts a lot of emphasis on a lower Aussie dollar in that it helps exporters, and US76 cents is getting outside their comfort zone.
Although I have expressed scepticism about their thinking many times before in The Conversation.
Over the pond, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, in the band of 0.5%-0.75%, after its December hike of 25bp.
In its press release the Fed said, “the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace.
Job gains remained solid and the unemployment rate stayed near its recent low.
Household spending has continued to rise moderately while business fixed investment has remained soft.
Measures of consumer and business sentiment have improved of late.
Inflation increased in recent quarters but is still below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective.”
Other than business investment being soft, that sounds like everything is going according to plan. And so far it is.
But then there is President Trump.
We have yet to see the impact Trump will have on consumer and business confidence, let alone what happens if he starts a series of trade wars.
Or if he convinces Congress to introduce his cash-flow-based tax plan.
I will provide more detail on that in future columns, but it is a dangerous attempt to provide preferable tax treatment for exporters over importers.
It has the very real prospect of causing huge disruption, and a large increase in the prices of many staple goods like textiles and food.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a> is a Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow at UNSW and author for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Time to shift the goalposts on investor lending again? Richard Holden

<html><body>
Donald Trump’s assumption of the US presidency since the last RBA Shadow Board round two months ago raises important questions about the future health of the global economy.
Domestically, consumer prices rose a little faster, by 1.5% year-on-year in the December 2016 quarter, but still well below the RBA’s 2-3% target band.
The CAMA RBA Shadow Board’s conviction that the cash rate should remain at its current level is stronger than two months ago, reflecting the heightened uncertainty surrounding the Trump presidency.
The Shadow Board attaches a 70% probability to a rate hold being the appropriate policy setting.
The confidence attached to a required rate cut equals 5%, while the confidence in a required rate hike equals 25%.
There is little inflationary pressure emanating from the Australian labour market, with Australia’s official unemployment rate now standing at 5.8%.
Since the participation rate has remained steady, the modest increase in unemployment is primarily due to a smaller increase in the creation of new jobs.
There is no new data on wages growth.
The Aussie dollar, relative to the US dollar, has strengthened again, finding support above 75 US¢.
Yields on Australian 10-year government bonds have slipped to 2.77%, once again nearing their historical low.
Domestic share prices have retreated from their highs in early January, the S&amp;P/ASX 200 stock market index now consolidating between 5,600 and 5,700.
The main global threat remains the uncertainty surrounding the Trump Presidency.
On the one hand, Trump’s promise to drastically increase infrastructure and defence spending, coupled with tax cuts, will exert upward pressure on US, and hence world, interest rates.
On the other hand, Trump’s protectionist and nationalist policies will dampen international trade and generate political uncertainty.
This could further increase global interest rates if risk premia were to rise considerably, or lower interest rates if global demand falls.
Making accurate predictions in such an environment is extremely ambitious; but the heightened uncertainty is damaging to financial markets and the overall economic outlook.
Consumer confidence, as measured by the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index, has fallen slightly during the past two months.
It now stands at 97.4 (down from 101.3 two months ago).
The manufacturing and services PMI, which measure the performances of the manufacturing and services sectors, continue to bounce around without clear direction.
It is now equaling 51.2 (down from 54.2 two months ago) and 54.5 (up from 50.5), respectively.
The AIG Performance of Construction Index (PCI), after its recent blip up, fell again, edged up for the second month in a row, from 45.9 in October to 47 in December.
Building permits declined again in December, by 1.2%, though November saw an interruption in this trend, with an increase of 7.5%.
The Shadow Board’s preference for the optimal interest rate has strengthened.
It now attaches a 70% probability (56% in December) that “no change” is the appropriate policy, a 5% probability (2% in December) that a rate cut is appropriate and a 25% probability (43% in December) that a rate rise, to 1.75% or higher, is appropriate.
The probabilities at longer horizons are as follows: 6 months out, the estimated probability that the cash rate should remain at 1.50% equals 24%, three percentage points up from the previous round.
The estimated need for an interest rate decrease remains unchanged at 9%, while the need for a rate increase equals 67% (71% in December).
A year out, the Shadow Board members’ confidence that the cash rate should be held steady equals 17% (unchanged from December), while the confidence in a required cash rate decrease (7%) and in a required cash rate increase (77%) are also virtually unchanged.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-07%20at%2011.37.05%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-07%20at%2011.37.05%20am.jpg" alt="">
For more information, <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/" target="_blank">click here</a>
</body></html>

February rates are on hold as uncertainty about Trump continues: RBA Shadow Board

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
Over the past three months there has been a significant shift in market interest rates.
The yield curve has steepened and market pricing for another RBA rate cut has receded. Current market pricing indicates a small (15%) chance that policy is eased again. And it implies a 35% chance of a rate hike within the next 12 months.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/06/cba-feb-1.jpg" alt="">
CBA’s house view is that interest rates are on hold over 2017. And in our view, the risks over the year lie with a cut. But the steeping in the yield curve and shift in market expectations has led us to revisit our estimate of the neutral cash rate.
The analysis confirms our earlier work that neutral it is much lower than in previous cycles which means that the cash rate would not need to rise by much for policy to no longer be having a stimulatory impact on the economy.  We estimate it to be 3% (2.5 – 3.5% range) which means that the current cash rate is about 150 bps in expansionary territory.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/06/cba-feb-2.jpg" alt="">
What is a neutral interest rate and why does it matter?
The level at which the RBA sets the cash rate can either have an expansionary, contractionary or neutral impact on economic activity. The neutral cash rate is the interest rate (or range of rates) consistent with full employment, trend growth and neither upward nor downward pressures applied on the price level through monetary policy. Or more generally, when the setting of interest rates is such as to exert neither contractionary nor expansionary forces on the economy, policy can be said to be ‘neutral’.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/06/cba-feb-3.jpg" alt="">
But the neutral rate it is not a constant rate. Rather it is influenced by changes in productivity, the stock of debt, lending margins, fiscal policy and the exchange rate. These drivers have moved in a way over the recent past that indicates the current neutral cash rate is probably at a record low.
The neutral rate is an important benchmark rate for evaluating the stance of monetary policy. It allows us to determine how expansionary or contractionary a particular policy setting is at any point in time.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/06/cba-feb-4.jpg" alt="">
One rule of thumb often used is comparing the level of the cash rate to a historic average cash rate to assess how accommodative or restrictive policy settings are. But that can be misleading because the neutral rate is fluid and varies over time.
When we compare current policy setting to the neutral rate they do not look as expansionary as implied by comparing the current cash rate to the historic cash rate average.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/06/cba-feb-5.jpg" alt="">
Policy implications
A range of estimates and theoretical arguments suggest that the neutral cash rate has moved to a record low. Our qualitative and quantitative analysis points to a neutral range of 2.5%-3.5% meaning a point estimate of 3%.
The analysis suggests that the RBA is faced with a relatively easy task if it needs to put the brakes on the economy at some point further down the road. It wouldn’t take a lot of tightening in policy to restore monetary policy to a neutral setting.
The flip side is that it becomes harder for the RBA to stimulate the economy as the neutral rate falls and we approach the lower bound. The limitations of monetary policy to stimulate growth become more apparent when the neutral rate falls towards the lower bound. The need for meaningful fiscal policy reform grows as a result.
We don’t see the RBA tightening over 2017. And in our view the risks like with further easing. Calls for fiscal policy reform in addition to higher levels of public investment will continue.
Gareth Aird is an economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
This is an edited extract of CBA Economics February 2016 report.
</body></html>

jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

RBA reaching the limits of its stimulatory solutions: CBA's Gareth Aird

<html><body>
More than 300,000 home loan customers have little or no equity in their homes, because they either failed to keep up with mortgage repayments or values in their area have fallen, new research by Roy Morgan has found.
Equity in this context is the difference between the value of your property and how much you owe on it.
In the 12 months to October 2016, it was revealed that 6.9% (302,000) of Australian mortgage holders had little or no real equity in their home, says a post on the website of Roy Morgan Research. The figure has improved just a little from around the same time in 2015, when around 345,000 home loan customers had no equity. 
This is based on the fact that the value of their home is only equal to or less than the amount they still owe, placing them at considerable risk if they have to sell or prices decline. 
Roy Morgan communications director Norman Morris said, “this represents a considerable risk to these households and their banks, particularly if home values fall or households are hit by unemployment”. 
“With some early signs that home loan rates are rising, the problem is likely to worsen as repayments increase and home values may decline, which has the potential to lower equity levels even further.”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/02/Feb3Equity1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/02/Feb3Equity1.png" alt="">
Morris added that there were several reasons that some borrowers were not gaining equity in their homes despite a generally strong property market. These include being in areas with declining values, apartments in Sydney and Melbourne losing value, borrowing more than the real value of the property, falling behind in mortgage payments, and increased borrowing for renovations that haven’t been reflected in increased property values.
The analysis was based on the Roy Morgan Single Source survey of more than 100,000 interviews over the last two years. 
Over the last 12 months, Roy Morgan said it interviewed more than 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage holders.
Western Australia had the largest proportion of such homeowners, with 10.4 percent of mortgage holders, or 54,000, having little or no equity in their home, the highest in Australia and 2.1% points higher than the same period in 2015. 
“The slowdown in WA’s mining sector is seeing the highest proportion of mortgage holders faced with little or no equity in their homes, and this position has deteriorated further over the last twelve months,” said Morris.
South Australia also recorded an increase in proportion over the last 12 months, up by 1.8 percent points to 8% (27,000), according to the analysis.
Among the states and two largest cities included in this analysis, Sydney had the lowest proportion of mortgage holders with little or no equity in their home: just 3.9 percent (33,000), down 1.1 percent points in the last year. 
“This improvement is due to home prices increasing faster than in most other areas of Australia and outpacing the growth in the average amount owing on mortgages,” Roy Morgan’s research said. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/02/Feb3Equity2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/02/Feb3Equity2.png" alt="">
Tasmania was the second-best performer with 4.7 percent (5,000) of mortgage holders facing equity risk, followed by NSW with 5.1 percent (73,000), Victoria with 6.0 percent (65,000), Melbourne with 6.1 percent (50,000) and Queensland with 7.2 percent (63,000).
The research also observed that mortgage gearing or risk was lowest in Sydney (28.9 percent) and Melbourne (32.4 percent), mainly because of the rapid rise in property values.
</body></html>

prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

300,000 mortgage holders have no equity in their homes: Roy Morgan

<html><body>
<div>
Consumer Affairs Victoria has commenced proceedings in the Federal Court of Australia against a Balwyn real estate agency for allegedly engaging in misleading and deceptive practices relating to the sale of land.
The real estate agency Fletchers (Balwyn) is alleged by Consumer Affairs Victoria to have done so during 2015.
It is alleged Fletcher &amp; Parker (Balwyn) Pty Ltd marketed properties in Melbourne’s eastern and south-eastern suburbs knowing the vendors would not sell for a price within the listed range, or that the properties were unlikely to sell for the price listed.
</div>
<div id="GeneralBodyContent">
The alleged conduct relates to 25 residential properties in Box Hill North, Box Hill South, Forest Hill, Doncaster, Hawthorn East, Blackburn, Blackburn North, Burwood East, Surrey Hills, Windsor, Vermont, Vermont South, Mitcham, Balwyn North, Kew and Camberwell.
Consumer Affairs Victoria will allege Fletcher &amp; Parker (Balwyn) contravened:
<ul>
<li>section 18 of the Australian Consumer Law, which prohibits misleading and deceptive conduct in trade and commerce, and</li>
<li>section 30 of the Australian Consumer Law, which prohibits false and misleading representations in connection to the sale and promotion of land.</li>
</ul>
The court actions have resulted from the work of Consumer Affairs Victoria’s underquoting taskforce, Taskforce Vesta<a href="https://www.consumer.vic.gov.au/housing-and-accommodation/buying-and-selling-property/our-underquoting-taskforce"></a>.
</div>
</body></html>

Fletchers Balwyn facing underquoting allegations in Federal Court 

<html><body>
The hockingstuart Yarraville-based estate agency will contribute $45,000 to the Victorian Consumer Law Fund, after it acknowledged contravening Victorian laws relating to the sale of residential properties.
The Director of Consumer Affairs Victoria accepted an undertaking from Hocking Stuart Yarraville and its directors after they acknowledged that the company contravened sections 18 and 30 of the Australian Consumer Law (Vic) and underquoting provisions of the Estate Agents Act 1980.
The worst example was a Footscray property (above) that had sold for more than $1.3 million in March 2014 and then advertised with price guidance in online ads or in emails at "$1,000,000 plus" in November and December of 2015.
It then sold for $2.11 million in December of 2015.
Their trading company L&amp;L Dardha acknowledged:
<ul>
<li>making false and misleading representations about the sale of property, knowing the vendors were not likely to sell the property for the advertised price</li>
<li>advertising properties on the realestate.com.au website at prices likely to mislead potential purchasers because they were in a lower price bracket than the agency’s estimated selling price (ESP) or estimated sales range (ESR) on the sale authority</li>
<li>advertising a price range online or in emails, which was less than the ESP or ESR on the sale authority.</li>
</ul>
The contraventions related to six properties in Altona North, Brooklyn, Footscray, West Footscray and Yarraville.
Acting on an initial complaint in December 2015, Consumer Affairs Victoria’s investigation found that, among other things:
<ul>
<li>three of the six properties did not state the agent’s ESP or ESR on the sales authority</li>
<li>two of the properties were advertised at a price range that was less than the ESR on the authority.</li>
</ul>
On a West Footscray property's signed authority, the agent's ESR of $600,000 to $660,000, yet in email correspondence to prospective purchasers, the advertised price range was listed as "$550,000 plus".
As part of the undertaking, the company has also agreed to:
<ul>
<li>display a notice at its place of business acknowledging the contraventions, and</li>
<li>implement a compliance program, which includes appointing a compliance officer, establishing a complaints handling system and providing regular training for staff.</li>
</ul>
</body></html>

Hockingstuart Yarraville acknowledge underquoting on $2.11 million Footscray home

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The number of loans (commitments) for budding home owners (owner-occupiers) rose by 0.9 percent in November after falling by 0.6 percent in October. It was only the second rise in lending in five months. </div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The value of loans rose by 2.2 percent in November with owner loans up 0.4 percent and investor loans up 4.9 percent.</div>
<div class="column">
 The ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating eased from four-month highs, falling by 0.7 per cent to 119.3 in the week to January 15. Confidence is up 4.6 per cent over the year and well above the average of 113.1 since 2014.</div>
<div class="column">
 The inflation expectation 2 years ahead was at 4.6 per cent, a 13-month high. Inflation expectations has now held above 4 per cent for the past 5 months.</div>
<div class="column">
 The Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that new vehicle sales rose by 0.3 per cent in December. The CommSec Luxury Vehicle index hit record highs in 2016 with sales of 17 luxury marques up 12.1 percent on a year ago. </div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-17%20at%202.26.13%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="column"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-17%20at%202.26.13%20PM.png" alt=""></div>
<div class="column">
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
On its own, the lift in home loans doesn’t look overly concerning – especially given it was only the second rise in the past five months. But couple it with the lift in home prices in the latter part of last year and it suggests that the housing landscape may continue to cause policymakers a little bit of angst over 2017. Even more so when you delve a bit deeper into the data and realise that the lift in the value of loans was largely driven by investors.
The value of loans by investors surged by 4.9 per cent in November to be up 21.4 over the year – the strongest annual growth in 19 months.
If home prices continue to lift, with growth largely driven by investor loans, regulators may look at further restrictions to curb lending.
Household confidence remains just shy of recent four month highs. And more importantly confidence is holding well above longer-term averages. In particular, the measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item lifted to the highest levels in five months. No doubt the discounts offered by retailers post-Christmas are enticing households to spend a little bit more freely. 
Interestingly the inflation expectation 2 years ahead was at 4.6 per cent in the past week - a 13-month high. Inflation expectations have now held above 4 per cent for the past 5 months. There is no doubt that inflationary pressures have bottomed out and are likely to start lifting.
Annual new vehicle sales are just shy of recent record highs, suggestive of underlying strength in business and consumer sentiment and finances. But the trends aren’t uniform with sales of sports utility vehicles consistently setting new highs while passenger car sales have now fallen to 20- year lows in rolling annual terms. 
</div>
<div class="column">
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-17%20at%202.27.18%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-17%20at%202.27.18%20PM.png" alt=""></div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">What do the figures show?</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Housing finance - number</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The number of loans (commitments) for budding home owners (owner-occupiers) rose by 0.9 per cent in November after falling by 0.6 per cent in October. It was only the second rise in lending in five months. Excluding the refinancing of dwellings, the number of loans was up by 2.1 per cent. <ul>
<li>  The number of new home loans was down by 2.6 per cent on a year ago.</li>
<li>  Loans by owner-occupiers for the construction of homes rose by 2.3 per cent in November.</li>
<li>  Loans to buy newly-erected dwellings rose by 3.3 per cent.</li>
<li>  Loans for the purchase of established dwellings (excluding refinancing) rose by 2.0 per cent.</li>
<li>  The number of refinancing transactions fell by 1.2 per cent.</li>
</ul>
Lending across states/territories in November: NSW (+1.5 per cent); Victoria (+0.8 per cent); Queensland (+2.4 per cent); South Australia (-1.3 per cent), Western Australia (-0.7 per cent); Tasmania (-1.0 per cent); Northern Territory (+2.7 per cent); ACT (+0.2 per cent).
Housing finance - value
The value of new housing commitments (owner occupier and investment) rose by 2.2 per cent in November after rising by 0.5 per cent in October. Owner-occupier loans rose by 0.4 per cent but investment loans rose by 4.9 per cent. The value of loans by owner-occupiers and investors to build new homes rose by 14.2 per cent in November after falling by 1.7 per cent in October. The value of loans to build new homes rose to an 8-month high of $3.07 billion in November.
Housing finance – other statistics
The proportion of first-time buyers in the home loan market rose from 13.7 per cent to 13.8 per cent in November (long-term average 19.4 per cent).
The proportion of fixed rate loans eased from 12.8 per cent to 12.5 per cent in November. And the average home loan across Australia stood at $376,600 in November, up 3.6 per cent in the month but down 1.6 per cent on a year ago.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-17%20at%202.28.24%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-17%20at%202.28.24%20PM.png" alt=""></div>
<div class="column">
<div class="page" title="Page 3">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
Consumer confidence 
The ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating eased from four-month highs, falling by 0.7 per cent to 119.3 in the week to January 15. Confidence is up 4.6 per cent over the year and well above the average of 113.1 since 2014. Two of the five components of the index rose in the latest week:
<ul>
<li>  The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down from +13 to +8;</li>
<li>  The estimate of family finances over the next year was down from +33 to +32;</li>
<li>  Economic conditions over the next 12 months was unchanged at +2;</li>
<li>  Economic conditions over the next 5 years was up from +11 to +12;</li>
<li>  The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +41 to +43 – the strongest reading in 5 months.</li>
</ul>
In addition the inflation expectation 2 years ahead was at 4.6 per cent, a 13-month high. Inflation expectations has now held above 4 per cent for the past 5 months.
New car sales:
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) new vehicle sales rose by 0.3 per cent in December after falling by 0.7 per cent in November. Passenger car sales rose by 3.6 per cent, while sales of sports utility vehicles fell by 3.3 per cent and sales of “other” vehicles (includes utilities, panel vans, cab chassis, goods carrying vans, rigid trucks, prime movers, non-freight carrying trucks, and buses) rose by 0.7 per cent.</div>
<div class="column">
 New vehicles sales were up by 0.2 per cent over the year. Passenger car sales in December were down by 4.2 per cent over the year, while SUVs sales were unchanged and “other vehicles” were up by 10 per cent. In rolling annual terms, 1,178,133 new vehicles were sold over the 2016 calendar year. Sales of SUVs (441,023) eased from record highs in annual terms, while annual sales of “other” vehicles stood at a record high of 250,853. Sales of passenger vehicles fell to a 20-year low of 486,257 in the year to December.
CommSec Luxury Vehicle index
The CommSec Luxury vehicle index hit record highs in 2016. Sales of 17 luxury marques totalled a record 106,658 units in 2016, up 12.1 per cent on a year ago. Luxury vehicles now account for 9.17 per cent of total vehicle sales and a record 11.50 per cent of passenger cars and SUVs alone.</div>
<div class="column">
 The CommSec Luxury vehicle index includes Audi, Aston Martin, BMW, Bentley, Ferrari, Hummer, Jaguar, Lamborghini, Lexus, Lotus, Maserati, Maybach, Mercedes-Benz, Mclaren, Porsche and Rolls Royce.</div>
<div class="column">
 In 2016 record sales were recorded by Audi, BMW, Ferrari, Jaguar, Lamborghini and McLaren. Luxury auto sales have been running at a double-digit annual rate for almost four years.
What is the importance of the economic data?
Housing Finance data is produced monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and shows commitments by lenders, such as banks, to provide finance for housing purposes. The lending figures relate to those looking to buy or build homes to live in as well as those seeking to buy or build homes for investment purposes. Generally people get their finance organised first, so the figures are regarded as a leading indicator on the housing market.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-17%20at%202.29.25%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-17%20at%202.29.25%20PM.png" alt=""></div>
<div class="column">
 The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank. The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of industry data. The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries releases estimates of car sales on the third business day of the month. The figures highlight the strength of consumer spending as well as conditions facing auto &amp; components companies.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
 Looking forward, policymakers will keep a close eye on how the rebalancing of the domestic economy (away from mining investment) is keeping pace. Inflation and housing activity are likely to be closely watched over 2017. 
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div></body></html>

Investor loans soar, inflation makes a comeback: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

<html><body>
Home loans rates began to rise towards the end of the December quarter, despite no change to the RBA cash rate according to RateCity. 
About two-thirds of lenders raised fixed rates while a smaller number of lenders lifted variable rates with more hikes set to follow in 2017, according to comparison website RateCity’s Rates of the Nation report.
Longer-term fixed rates are sitting higher than variable rates and rising by the biggest margins, which indicates that banks don’t expect low rates will last forever. 
"Previously, banks were betting on lower rates in the future but we saw those expectations change daily during the past quarter," according tot Peter Arnold, data insights director of RateCity.com.au.
Fixed rates under 4 percent fell by 15 percent over the quarter; that’s around 100 less sub-4 percent fixed rates on offer now compared to three months ago, the report says.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/12/RateCityIntRatesMoves.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/12/RateCityIntRatesMoves.png" alt="">
Consumers responded quickly by shifting towards fixed rates. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/12/RateCityFixedvsVar.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/12/RateCityFixedvsVar.png" alt="">
"Consumers should expect more rate rises... While there are still plenty of home loan rates under 4 per cent, those deals are less prevalent now. It’s unlikely that we’ll see rates return to the long term average of around 7 percent just yet, but competition at the low-rate end of the market is slowing," Arnold adds.
Fixed home loan rates - Under 4 percent getting harder
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/12/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-12%20at%2011.40.14%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/12/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-12%20at%2011.40.14%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Distribution of variable rates
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/12/VariableLoans.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/12/VariableLoans.png" alt="">
According to RateCity's website, below is a snapshot of some of the popular home loan products:
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/12/RateCityPopularLoans.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/12/RateCityPopularLoans.png" alt=""> 
 
</body></html>

More home loan rate hikes expected in 2017: RateCity report

<html><body>
New data has found a growing proportion of borrowers are seeking the security that comes with a fixed rate home loan, according to the latest national home loan approval data from Mortgage Choice.
Fixed rate home loans accounted for 22 percent of all loans written in December, up from 19.5 percent in the month prior.
“This is the fourth consecutive month that we have seen fixed rate demand increase,” Mortgage Choice chief executive officer John Flavell said.
“With speculation mounting that the Reserve Bank of Australia could soon lift the official cash rate, it is clear that a growing proportion of borrowers wish to beat any potential rate hikes by opting for a fixed rate home loan.”
Mr Flavell said current market conditions combined with a spate of rate increases by Australia’s lenders meant a rate rise by the Reserve Bank this year was now more likely than not.
“In December, the United States’ Central Bank announced it would increase the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent.
Furthermore, the bank indicated that the Federal Funds rate could rise by a further 75 basis points throughout 2017 – through three separate rate increases.
“Closer to home, many of Australia’s lenders have already started to raise rates across their suite of home loan products.
In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia has stated that the time for easing the monetary policy setting has now passed.
All of these factors combined would suggest that a rate increase by the Reserve Bank could be right around the corner.
“Borrowers understand this and that is why a growing proportion of mortgage holders are opting for fixed rate products.”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/09/variable_rate.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/09/variable_rate.jpg" alt="">
Across the country, fixed rate demand was highest in New South Wales, with this type of product accounting for 27.34 percent of all loans written throughout the month of December.
“Queensland wasn’t far behind, with fixed rate home loans accounting for 24.64 percent of all loans written within the state.
At the other end of the spectrum, fixed rate demand was lowest in Victoria, with this type of product making up just 12.69 percent of all home loans written,” he said.
“Looking ahead, I wouldn’t be surprised to see fixed rate demand continue to rise across most of the states as a growing proportion of borrowers look to beat the threat of rising rates.”
<table style="width: 403px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" align="left"><tbody>
<tr>
<td nowrap width="101">
 
 
</td>
<td colspan="2" nowrap width="56">
NSW/ACT
</td>
<td colspan="2" nowrap width="60">
VIC/TAS
</td>
<td colspan="2" nowrap width="60">
QLD
</td>
<td colspan="2" nowrap width="60">
SA/NT
</td>
<td colspan="2" nowrap width="67">
WA
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="115">
 Variable
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="56">
72.66%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
87.31%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
75.36%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
84.45%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="52">
83.91%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="101">
Basic Variable
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="56">
9.76%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
16.04%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
25.14%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
33.53%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="67">
15.66%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="101">
Standard Variable
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="56">
10.74%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
21.01%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
7.17%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
13.77%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="67">
13.42%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="101">
Ongoing Discount
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="56">
46.96%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
43.43%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
36.61%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
32.59%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="67">
51.52%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="101">
Line of Credit
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="56">
1.32%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
1.58%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
0.61%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
1.03%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="67">
0.86%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="101">
Introductory Rate
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="56">
3.88%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
5.25%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
5.83%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
3.53%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="67">
2.45%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="115">
 Fixed
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="56">
27.34%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
12.69%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
24.64%
</td>
<td colspan="2" valign="bottom" nowrap width="60">
15.55%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="52">
16.09%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
 
</body></html>

Latest Finance Insights

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

Editor's Picks

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Latest Finance Insights

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News