Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

Joel Robinson

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-6" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-2" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-2" dir="auto">
<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-2" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:5a5ab36c-8dd3-454c-b456-c501f22f0eb4-0" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:5a5ab36c-8dd3-454c-b456-c501f22f0eb4-0" dir="auto">
The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
</section>
</section>

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Local Little Bay residents, along with buyers from premium postcodes across Sydney’s affluent Eastern Suburbs, have dominated purchases in developer-builder Urban Property Group’s first Eastern Suburbs apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a>.

The $250 million coastal project, one of the first new developments in the area in several years, has proven particularly popular with downsizers, especially those from Coogee and Bondi. One Double Bay downsizer paid $4.7 million for a four-bedroom penthouse, setting a new local apartment price record in the process.

Buyers have been attracted to the combination of coastal tranquillity, premium design and amenity-rich neighbourhood living. The walkable village setting, along with proximity to three of Sydney’s leading golf courses, New South Wales Golf Club, St Michael’s Golf Club and The Coast Golf Club, has also been a key drawcard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352689]

Built across two low-rise buildings designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hill-thalis-architecture-urban-projects-pty-ltd">Hill Thalis</a> and set along a lush, landscaped green spine, designed by leading landscape architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>, ESTE Little Bay offers a collection of one, two, three and four-bedroom residences with interiors by Richards Stanisich.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> Sales Director, Tom McIvor said the response to ESTE has been "nothing short of extraordinary."

“Buyers have been quick to recognise ESTE as a rare opportunity to invest in a coastal sanctuary that offers both seclusion and connectivity to the heart of Sydney,” McIvor said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352687]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">SRM Residential</a> Senior Director, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">Clayton Ross</a> said the local market has responded incredibly well, driven by ESTE’s exceptional location and the rarity it offers.

“We’ve seen strong interest from a variety of buyer groups, all of whom are drawn to the exclusivity and quality of the build and construction by the 4.5-star iCIRT-rated builder / developer, Urban Property Group. There’s truly nothing else like it along Sydney’s coastline.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352690]

The project also includes robust buyer protections, including Resilience Insurance’s Latent Defects Insurance, providing 10 years of structural cover, and an independent iCIRT-rating of the developer.

“The iCIRT-rating adds another layer of confidence,” Ross added. “Buyers see it as a safeguard for their investment and their lifestyle.” A highlight of ESTE’s offering is its exclusive wellness amenities, including a heated rooftop infinity pool and outdoor heated spa, a state-of-the-art Technogym fitness centre, and a sauna.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a> is topped out and is on track to complete towards the end of 2026, with residents moving in before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112343]

Eastern Suburbs buyers snap up ESTE Little Bay apartments

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
GUEST OBSERVER
Simply, the Reserve Bank believes that economic growth and inflation will lift over 2017, ruling out the need to cut interest rates further.
If the forecasts were to change and the Reserve Bank became less positive, rate cuts would clearly be back on the radar screen, but the Bank believes risks are balanced. Rate hikes seem some way off. 
While the economy went backwards in the September quarter, the Reserve Bank swiftly dismissed the data: “This weakness was not expected to have continued into the December quarter and the forecasts for quarterly GDP growth were little changed.”
Consumer confidence eased over the past week with consumers more negative on their finances. In fact the reading on current finances hit a 7-month low in the latest week. Clearly higher petrol prices would have had an impact – petrol recently hit 18-month highs and it is the single biggest weekly purchase by most families. Interestingly though, consumers believe it’s currently a good time to buy a major household item. So consumers are far from glum, just mindful about their weekly budgets.
Inflation expectations of consumers also lifted last week and again the higher petrol price would have been a key factor behind the move.
What do the figures show?
Reserve Bank Board minutes:
Last paragraph: “Taking account of all the information available, including the updated forecasts, an assessment of the risks affecting these forecasts and the level of the cash rate, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.”
“Labour cost pressures were expected to build gradually from their current low levels as spare capacity in the labour market diminished and the effect of heightened competitive pressures on retail prices eased.”
“there were signs that the significant increase in the supply of apartments had begun to affect prices and rents in Brisbane.”
“The fall in GDP in the September quarter had reflected some temporary factors."
“In considering the stance of monetary policy, members viewed the near-term prospects for global growth as being more positive, although recognised the risks from policy uncertainty in the medium term. Stronger growth had contributed to higher inflationary pressures, including higher commodity prices, which had implications for the future stance of monetary policy in the advanced economies in coming years.”
“The large amount of work in the pipeline was expected to support dwelling investment at high levels over the next year or so, although there was some risk of more cancellations than usual if conditions in apartment markets deteriorated.”
“Ongoing spare capacity in the labour market had contributed to subdued wage pressures, although there were some indications that wage growth had reached a trough.”
“Members noted that developments in China continued to be one of the main sources of uncertainty for the Australian economy.”
“the higher terms of trade represented a boost to national income, which provided some upside risks to the domestic forecasts.”
Consumer confidence
The ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 2.3 per cent to 113.7 in the week to February 19. Confidence is up 0.1 per cent over the year and just above the average of 113.2 since 2014. Three of the five components of the index fell in the latest week:
The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down from +10 to +2;  The estimate of family finances over the next year was steady at +26;
Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down from +2 to zero;
Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down from +10 to +5;
The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +35 to +36.
In addition the inflation expectation 2 years ahead, rose from 4.2 per cent to 4.5 per cent. Inflation expectations have now held above 4 per cent for the past 10 weeks.
What is the importance of the economic data?
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors? 
CommSec expects the Reserve Bank to remain on the interest rate sidelines for an extended period. 
One factor to watch is the oil price, and in turn, the local petrol price. The Reserve Bank says global inflation has moved higher and singled out the oil price as a key influence. At home, the Reserve Bank has also noted that petrol prices had lifted in the quarter after subtracting from inflation “over much of the previous few years.”
At present a stronger Aussie dollar is capping petrol prices and could lead to some relief for motorists in the short- term. 
</div>
<div class="column">
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx">CommSec</a>.
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div></body></html>

cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Reserve Bank and consumers fixated on petrol: Craig James

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
As expected, the minutes of the February monetary policy meeting of the Board of the Reserve Bank provided little additional insight to the Governor’s post-meeting statement and the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
The surprise 0.5 percent decline in real GDP in the September quarter attracted considerable discussion although it has largely been attributed to temporary factors including disruptions to coal supply for exports and bad weather which impacted residential construction. It is also noted that slower growth in consumption has been an aspect of growth trends in recent quarters.
However this weakness is not expected to have continued into the December quarter with growth in retail sales volumes having already been reported to have increased.
Nevertheless there is an emphasis on increased uncertainty around the outlook for consumption. On the one hand the minutes note the importance of households’ perceptions of their personal finances and job prospects. The assumption that the savings rate will continue to fall and support consumption growth has been discarded with growth in household income now representing a constraint to consumption growth.
On the other hand the minutes also point out that due to the strong lift in the terms of trade national income growth will be boosted providing some scope for upside risks to the forecasts.
The Board remains guardedly optimistic about an improvement in growth in non mining business investment with New South Wales and Victoria leading the way and a recent improvement in approvals for non residential investment also pointing to stronger investment. As we have seen in previous minutes the chasm between housing activity in the mining states and Sydney/Melbourne is emphasised clearly. Prospects for activity in Sydney and Melbourne remain solid with in particular investor housing approvals having risen in recent months.
Prospects for the labour market remain uncertain although the unemployment rate is still forecast to edge lower, albeit at a sufficiently modest pace for spare capacity to persist for some time. 
The Board is relying upon a gradual return to the inflation target coming from a modest boost in labour cost pressures and an easing in competitive pressures on retail prices. Unlike in recent years there is no expectation that the earlier depreciation of the exchange rate will put any upward pressure on tradeables prices. That cycle is assessed to have run its course. 
International conditions are assessed to have been more positive over recent months with GDP growth forecasts for our major trading partners having been revised up a little. Higher oil prices and rising inflation expectations were expected to flow through to higher core inflation in the advanced economies over time. As in previous minutes, uncertainty around China’s growth prospects, including imbalances in the financial sector, are an ongoing concern in the medium term. As with most commentators, uncertainty around the US is high with fiscal policy and deregulation potentially boosting activity although restrictive trade policies pose downside risks. 
Conclusion
We see nothing in these minutes to change our view that the official cash rate will remain on hold throughout 2017 and 2018. Markets continue to anticipate rate hikes in 2018 while a considerable number of commentators are predicting rate cuts in 2017. The middle course seems a much more likely outcome particularly given our view that growth momentum can pick up in 2017 but slow markedly through 2018 posing risks for the labour market and economic activity.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/">Westpac</a>. 
 
</body></html>

bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Official cash rate will remain on hold, maybe until 2018: Westpac's Bill Evans

<html><body>
The RBA have highlighted the concerns about the Brisbane property market, suggesting a significant increase in the supply of apartments.
They suggested that the supply increase has begun to affect prices and rents in the Queensland capital.
The minutes from the February rate decision, where the RBA decided to hold the rates at a record low 1.5 percent, also noted the prices and rents falling in Perth.
"The combination of increased supply and lower population growth had already depressed rents and apartment prices in Perth and, increasingly, Brisbane," the minutes read.
However, they say that activity in the Sydney and Melbourne housing market in the second half of 2016 had increased, as did investor housing loan approvals.
It was noted that the housing market activity in Melbourne and surrounding areas had been supported by strong population growth and improvements in transportation infrastructure.
They concluded the property wrap by suggesting some lenders were taking a more cautious attitude to lending in certain segments. 
 
 
 
</body></html>

jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Brisbane apartment supply noted in February 2017 RBA minutes

Minutes of the February Monetary Policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board

<html><body>
Foreign investment played a key role in underpinning demand for new housing stock in 2016, according to CBRE’s latest report.
That said, overall levels of offshore capital for residential investment eased in 2016 from the very high levels experienced in 2015, the agency noted.
Higher stamp duties applicable to source local debt, tighter enforcement of monetary caps on Chinese capital outflows and general concerns about apartment oversupply contributed to softer foreign investment in 2016.
Foreign investment sales turnover for the Sydney development site market declined by 50% in the 12 months to June 2016.
Despite the slowdown, Australia remains an attractive long-term proposition for foreign investment.
Foreign buyers, although motivated by rental returns, value other factors such as political stability, personal safety, education and low air pollution when assessing investment locations and Australia ranks very highly on these measures.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/16/Figure%2020.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/16/Figure%2020.jpg" alt="">
Although 2016 saw a combination of factors that could impede demand from foreign investors, we are not forecasting a material jump in settlement defaults for off-the-plan apartments.
Settlement default has traditionally been low in Australia (sub-2 percent).
A tougher lending environment makes it likely that settlement periods will be extended and some increase in default will occur.
But the emergence of new lenders absorbing foreign buyer debt demand and the substantial cost of default (i.e. forgoing deposits) will limit the number of buyers defaulting in settlement.
Furthermore, conditions in domestic labour markets are unlikely to deteriorate to the extent that settlement defaults will increase markedly amongst domestic buyers.
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Settlement defaults to increase from low occurance in OTP housing market: CBRE

<html><body>
Bankwest has said it will not take into account negative gearing benefits when determining loan eligibility serviceability.
It means investors will not be able to secure as much in any loan application. It also could apply to existing loans.
It follows on from last week’s announcement when the Commonwealth Bank subsidiary said it was not accepting new applications for refinancing of investment properties.
BankWest has confirmed it will remove the tax advantages of negative gearing when determining whether or not applicants are eligible for investor loans, said a report in The Real Estate Conversation. 
The move would mean investors can borrow less from the lender. Also, as another consequence Bankwest would likely be writing fewer investment loans.
The Commonwealth Bank is expected to announce similar moves.
There was speculation in the media that both BankWest and the Commonwealth Bank were close to the 10 per cent growth cap for investor loans set by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. 
The report cited an Australian Financial Review article quoting Mark Chapman, a director of tax accountants H&amp;R Block, that the rule change would affect existing borrowers.
"The impact of Bankwest's decision on new borrowers is not too bad – they can just borrow through another bank," he said. “But for existing BankWest borrowers, the change is retrospective.”
</body></html>

Bankwest will ignore negative gearing tax benefits when calculating investor loans

<html><body>
The Reserve Bank of Australia has concerns on the apartment market, warning a flood of new apartments could come onto the market in certain areas, pushing down prices and causing heavy losses for developers.
The concerns were voiced in its latest Statement on Monetary Policy. The central bank pointed out that residential building approvals have been almost 50 per cent higher than their long-term average over the past two years, helped by low interest rates and buoyant housing prices in the eastern states.
While residential building approvals, especially for higher-density apartments, have fallen in recent months, the RBA statement noted dwelling investment should hold up as developers start work on projects that are already in the pipeline.
It said private dwelling investment continued to grow at an above-average rate over the year, but fell unexpectedly in the September quarter, largely because poor weather disrupted construction. 
Residential building approvals, especially higher-density dwelling approvals, have fallen in recent months (Graph 3.6). Nevertheless, the large amount of work in the pipeline should continue to support a high level of dwelling investment for the foreseeable future.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/13/Graph3.6.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/13/Graph3.6.png" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/13/ResiDwellPipeline.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a> 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/13/ResiDwellPipeline.png" alt="" style="font-size: 12.16px;"> 
The central bank pointed out that that "an approved apartment takes around three times as long to complete as a detached house".
It added that the longer lag between the decision to approve a higher-density dwelling and its completion makes it easier to forecast dwelling investment levels further into the future.
But it also "means that the impact on the supply of housing, including prices and vacancy rates, may be less predictable than in the past".
 By late last year, the residential dwelling pipeline was equivalent to 12 per cent of GDP, and the number of dwellings yet to be completed accounted for 2.5 per cent of the country's total supply of housing.
"This large pipeline of work primarily reflects strong growth in building for higher-density dwellings (such as apartments)," the RBA says.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/13/ResiActivity.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/13/ResiActivity.png" alt=""> 
It noted the average completion time for an apartment in 2016 was around six quarters, almost three times longer than for detached houses, and twice as long as for townhouses.
It acknowledged the large pipeline of dwelling investment will continue to support economic activity and employment over the next couple of years.
But the RBA pointed out there are risks involved with the high level of activity and the shift to higher-density buildings especially as the apartment construction "is geographically concentrated, particularly in inner-city Melbourne and Brisbane".
Their statement also said a risk existed that developers might not be able to respond in time to signs of over-supply and waning house prices, "so a general oversupply is more likely to build up".
The RBA warns that "if these risks materialise, there could be an increase in the proportion of newly completed apartments that fail to settle and a rise in the share of work yet to be commenced that is not undertaken".
The central bank said conditions in the established housing market differ significantly across the country (Graph 3.7; Graph 3.8). 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/13/Graph3.7.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/13/Graph3.7.png" alt="">
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/13/Graph3.8.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/13/Graph3.8.png" alt="">
Conditions in the housing market in Sydney and Melbourne strengthened over the second half of 2016, but they have remained relatively subdued elsewhere. In the private treaty market, the average discount on vendor asking prices has decreased, but the average number of days that a property is on the market has increased from the lows of 2015, mainly reflecting developments outside Sydney and Melbourne.
In general, price growth for detached houses has been stronger than for apartments, particularly in the capital cities where the supply of new apartments has increased the most. 
For example, in the second half of 2016, apartment prices declined noticeably in Brisbane while growth in prices for detached houses increased. Conditions in Perth remain particularly weak; prices and rents have continued to decline and the vacancy rate has increased further (Graph 3.9). 
Rental growth in the rest of the country remains subdued and vacancy rates have been steady near their long-run average for some time.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/13/Graph3.9.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/13/Graph3.9.png" alt="">
Low interest rates support demand
The RBA said low interest rates are support housing demand.
"Over recent months, loan approvals have picked up, largely reflecting stronger demand from investors. Bank lending standards have been tightened over the past couple of years, which is a positive development given the already high levels of debt," it added.
Housing credit growth increased a little in recent months to an annualised rate of around 6½ per cent, but remains below the pace seen in 2015. The pick-up in housing credit growth reflected faster growth in credit extended to investors more than offsetting slower growth in owner-occupier credit, and has been consistent with trends in housing loan approvals (Graph 4.13).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/13/Graph4.13.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/13/Graph4.13.png" alt=""> 
The recent strength in housing loan approvals was concentrated in New South Wales and Victoria, while conditions remain weak in Western Australia (Graph 4.14), it said. The recent increase in overall housing loan approvals is consistent with a pick-up in housing price growth and turnover.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/13/Graph4.14.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/13/Graph4.14.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/13/Graph4.14.png" alt=""></a>
Average loan-to-valuation ratios are continuing to decline, reflecting the effects of tighter lending standards that were in part prompted by the measures introduced earlier by APRA.
According to the central bank, "a significant portion of the increase in investor credit growth is also likely to reflect the extension of credit to investors settling the payment of newly completed apartments that were purchased off the plan at an earlier time." 
The pick-up in investor credit growth also follows reductions in interest rates through the middle of 2016. Since November, most lenders have increased fixed and some variable housing interest rates, especially for investors or borrowers with interest-only loans.
Three of the four major banks have increased their standard variable rates for investor loans by 7–15 basis points but have left owner-occupier rates unchanged. Two major banks also announced increases in interest rates for interest-only loans. Other lenders have increased variable lending rates to both owner-occupiers and investors by 10–15 basis points. Some lenders have indicated that they have implemented these changes in response to higher funding costs and to meet regulatory requirements, such as APRA’s guidance for a maximum growth rate on investor credit of 10 per cent. Overall, these interest rate increases are estimated to have boosted the average outstanding housing interest rate by less than 5 basis points (see Table 4.2). 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/13/Table4.2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/13/Table4.2.png" alt="">
In addition to increasing the differential between advertised interest rates for new owner-occupier and investor loans, many lenders appear to have reduced the discretionary discounts available to new borrowers, it said.
</body></html>

Apartment oversupply could push down prices, hurting Melbourne and Brisbane developers: RBA

<html><body>
RBA Governor Philip Lowe has given a clear message that interest rates have bottomed, implying the central bank won’t be cutting the overnight cash rate anytime soon, according to CBA chief economist Craig James.
At his first speech of the year during the A50 Australian Economic Forum, Governor Lowe said the “bank's central scenario is for some pick-up in economic growth and for inflation to move gradually higher”.  
The RBA is tipping economic growth of 3 per cent over 2017 and 2018. 
On inflation, he said that while it remains low, running at around 11⁄2 per cent in both headline and underlying terms, inflation is not expected to fall further. 
“Instead, our central forecast is for underlying inflation to gradually rise over the next couple of years,” he said. 
Clearly, that signals the bank is not in a hurry to cut rates, says James.
The Governor was also asked about the Aussie dollar, and based on the answer reported by the <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/economy/monetary-policy/donald-trump-might-even-be-good-news-says-rbas-philip-lowe-20170209-gu9iw6" target="_blank">Financial Review</a>, he also seems happy with current levels. 
"At the moment we think it'll deliver (economic growth of) 3 per cent, which is pretty good. While ever that's the case it's hard to say the exchange rate is fundamentally too high. At the moment I struggle to say the configuration that we have is leading to growth outcomes that are unsatisfactory." 
He also spoke of mixed conditions in the housing and job markets and the challenge in keeping high household debt under control. The Governor also said the RBA was closely monitoring the housing market and household balance sheets. 
He said, “the picture varies widely across the country. Prices for houses in Sydney and Melbourne are rising strongly, but apartment prices in some cities, including Perth and Brisbane have fallen. The population is growing strongly, but there is a large number of additional dwellings to come onto the overall market this year”. 
“Growth in rents is weak, but vacancy rates in most markets are not unusually high. And investor demand looks to have strengthened in the closing months of 2016. So it is a complex picture.”
While saying that high household debts are a risk, he was positive about the tightening of lending standards by banks over the past couple of years.
While upbeat on Australia and Australia’s prospects, the RBA Governor highlighted challenges including lifting productivity growth, greater engagement with Asia, lifting spending on infrastructure and keeping public finances in good shape.
On the unwinding of the mining boom, encouragingly the Governor said “we are already around 90 per cent of the way through the fall from the peak to expected trough in mining investment”. 
His near-term outlook was positive, according to James, though he did say the GDP fall in the September quarter was a surprise, but the economy was expected to have returned to growth in the December quarter.
</body></html>

prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

CBA economist Craig James says RBA has given clear message rates have bottomed

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
GUEST OBSERVER
The RBA has downwardly revised its near term growth forecasts as well as shaving a bit from their medium term projections. Inflation forecasts remain intact and both headline and core inflation are expected to gradually rise from here.
The RBA see the unemployment rate tracking sideways over 2017 at 5 3⁄4 percent.
We have the RBA cash rate on hold at 1.5 percent throughout 2017.
The RBA’s updated forecasts are further evidence that Governor Lowe doesn’t intend to take the cash rate lower. The Bank has essentially looked through the QIII contraction in the economy and has forecast decent growth outcomes over the next two years. In addition, headline inflation is forecast to return to target over 2017. As such, the Bank retains a neutral bias despite there being no forward guidance in today’s Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP).
Looking at the Bank’s through the year forecasts implies that the pace of growth picks up from 2 percent/pa mid-2017 to an above-trend 3 percent by year end. It is expected to remain above trend over the rest of the forecast period (mid-2019).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/10/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-10%20at%201.33.12%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/10/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-10%20at%201.33.12%20PM.png" alt="">
 
LNG production, infrastructure spend and a lift in non-mining investment are expected to push growth higher. The Australian economy would be deemed to be in good health if these outcomes can be achieved. While we think they are possible, they look a best case scenario and the risk is that growth outcomes undershoot the Bank’s forecasts. The Bank has upgraded its global growth forecasts on fiscal stimulus in the US.
Inflation is forecast to gradually rise. But core inflation is not expected to get back to target until 2018. The RBA sees headline inflation rising a little quicker because of price rises in fuel and tobacco. These forecasts look about right to us, but like the growth forecasts, the risks are skewed to the downside.
The Bank retains a temperate assessment on the labour market. Employment growth is forecast to basically run at a level that would see the unemployment rate crab sideways at 5 3⁄4 percent. Normally we would expect the unemployment rate to be falling if growth is running above trend. The GDP and unemployment rate forecasts are reconciled by the big contribution to growth that will come from LNG production which is not labour intensive and also a possible decline in underemployment.
The RBA has confused us a little with their assessment on non-mining business investment. In Lowe’s Statement on Tuesday, the Governor optimistically stated that, “some further pick-up in non-mining business investment is also expected.” The word “further” stood out to us because in our view we are yet to observe a meaningful lift in private non-mining investment. Today the RBA agreed with us by nothing that, “non- mining business investment has been weak for some time, despite the support provided by low interest rates and the earlier depreciation of the exchange rate. The outlook for non-mining business investment is relatively subdued in the near term”. We will await further clarity from Martin Place on this one.
Rate cuts look off the table for now given the strong growth in dwelling prices (largely Sydney and Melbourne) and the Bank’s relatively upbeat assessment of the economic outlook. Despite below target inflation, concerns around the further build-up of household debt and strong dwelling price growth mean that it would take a shift in the activity data for policy easing to come back onto the table. In our view, trends in the labour market are the one to watch. It would take a loss of momentum in job creation for Lowe to entertain the idea of taking the policy rate lower. We see rates on hold in 2017.
The risk, however, sits with easing while ever inflation is below target. 
RBA Key Views
Terms-of-Trade. The terms of trade are expected to decline gradually over 2017, but are expected to remain above their recent trough and be higher than previously forecast.
Unemployment rate. Unemployment rate to basically trend sideways at 53⁄4% in 2017. But it is expected to edge lower over the forecast period.
World growth. Growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018 have been revised a little higher reflecting the recent better data and the prospect of more stimulatory fiscal policy in the US.
Inflation. Inflationary pressures to be benign. Forecasts remained unchanged from November SMP. Inflation to gradually rise. But core inflation not expected to get back to target until 2018. Headline inflation rising a little quicker because of price rises in fuel and tobacco
Wages. Gradual recovery in wage growth from late 2017 assumes that some of the factors that have been weighing on wages will gradually dissipate.
Housing construction. The large amount of work in the pipeline should continue to support a high level of dwelling investment for the foreseeable future.
Dwelling Prices. Conditions in the housing market in Sydney and Melbourne strengthened over the second half of 2016, but they have remained relatively subdued elsewhere. Inflation in rents has eased to multi-decade lows.
Australia’s GDP. The pace of growth picks up from 2%pa mid- 2017 to an above-trend 3% by year end. Its forecasts to remain above trend throughout the rest of the forecast period. .
Fiscal policy. Little change to the forecasts of the consolidated deficit in 2016/17 of around 3 per cent of GDP which implies a modest stimulus to growth.
Oil prices. Higher oil prices should oil are expected to contribute to inflationary pressures in the period ahead. .
CBA’s View
The terms of trade are expected to drift lower over 2017 due to a pullback in commodity prices. But we have seen the low point for the cycle.
The unemployment should grind a little lower over 2017. Some job losses still to come out of the resources sector as the last of the major projects finish. NSW and Vic to have the strongest labour markets.
Global growth to lift a little to around 3 1⁄4 percent in 2017. Advanced economies, like the US &amp; Canada, likely to have above trend growth. China growth to firm at around 6.8 percent. UK economy to slow under Brexit impact and Eurozone growth to be similar to 2016.
Underlying CPI to remain below the RBA target band (2-3 percent) in 2017. Headline inflation to within the target band in H1 2017. Weak wages growth is keeping a lid on domestic inflation while tradables inflation is weak due the AUD holding up in the mid-USD0.70s.
Wages growth remains feeble, even with firmer commodity prices. Wages growth unlikely to materially lift labour market underutilisation falls. Job security concerns remain elevated and are also keeping a lid on wages growth.
Building approvals have peaked for the cycle and will continue to taper off over 2017. There is a significant pipeline of dwellings yet-to- commenced and completed. Commencements to be a robust 210k in 2017, slightly down from 220k in 2016. Alterations and additions spending likely to gradually rise.
Dwelling price growth is expected to moderate over 2017. Varied price growth across different regions to continue. Affordability remains a significant problem for low and middle income households. An increase in supply to stem dwelling price growth.
We expect the economy to grow by 2.4 percent in 2016 and 2.6 percent in 2017. Net exports, public investment and household spending to lift growth. This is partly offset by a drag from business investment.
Fiscal pressures to remain on Federal Budget and reform is slow and elongated. Public capex to lift. S&amp;P have put Australia’s AAA credit rating on negative outlook due to budget deficits.
Oil prices to drift a little lower which supports consumer spending. But because Australia is a net energy exporter, lower oil prices are a negative for terms of trade. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/10/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-10%20at%201.31.44%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/10/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-10%20at%201.31.44%20PM.png" alt="" width="750" height="273">
Gareth Aird is economist at Commonwealth Bank and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/gareth-aird/14/790/905">here</a>.
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div></body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Rate cuts off the table given strong growth in dwelling prices: Gareth Aird

<html><body>
Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe's address to the A50 Australian Economic Forum Dinner.
I would like to offer you all a very warm welcome to Sydney for the A50 Forum. To those of you who have travelled to our shores from afar, thank you for visiting.
I am confident that you will find your investment in time a worthwhile one. In just a short period, you will hear from the leaders in the worlds of politics, business, the policy institutions and the investment community.
You will find an openness and transparency that is not always seen elsewhere around the world and you will experience a genuine desire to share perspectives.
You also find a country that is prosperous and wealthy; Australians enjoy a standard of living that relatively few people around the world enjoy.
You find a country that has grown consistently for some decades now, despite a pretty volatile global environment. Australia's year-ended growth rate has been in positive territory since 1991.
You find a country that has a strong and stable banking system. We have deep and liquid financial markets. The public here question why banks are so profitable, not why they performed so badly during the global financial crisis.
You find a country that is well placed to benefit from growth in Asia, not only because of our natural resources base, but also because of stronger demand for our food and a wide range of services.
You find a country with a growing and diverse population and one that has a high degree of social cohesion. Our population has recently been growing at around 1½ per cent a year, and around 40 per cent of us were either born overseas or have one parent born overseas. This brings a dynamism that isn't there in countries with stagnant and less diverse populations.
You also find a country with strong public institutions and whose economy is resilient and flexible. We have a demonstrated capacity to address our problems and to adjust to the changing world that we live in. In the past decade, our flexibility has meant that we have been able to maintain economic stability through the biggest investment boom in the resources sector in more than a century, and the subsequent unwinding of that boom.
You also find a country with positive interest rates and a conventional monetary policy framework. The central bank is independent, analytical and pragmatic. Our inflation target is focused on medium-term outcomes. This approach means that we have the flexibility to pursue our price stability objective while taking into account developments in balance sheets in a way that can be difficult to do in more rigid monetary policy frameworks.
So that is Australia. Welcome. There is a lot to like here.
In the spirit of openness and transparency though that I mentioned a moment ago, we are not without our challenges. I will talk about a few of those in a moment.
I first want to say a few words about openness to trade and investment and its role in Australia's prosperity.
Australia is a country that has benefited greatly from the open international trading system. Our ability to sell to the rest of the world goods and services that we can produce really well has boosted our living standards. We also benefit from being able to buy goods produced overseas. And the need to compete with others is one of the things that leads us to strive to do things better.
Australians have also benefited from the relatively free flow of financial capital. Year after year, for more than two centuries now, capital from the rest of the world has helped build our country. If we had had to rely on just our own resources, we would not be enjoying the prosperity that we do today. Our asset base and our productive capacity would be lower, and so too would our standard of living. As investors, Australians have also benefited from being able to diversify our portfolios by buying foreign assets and by building strong businesses overseas.
So, again, that is Australia. We provide a very good illustration of how a medium-sized country that is committed to an open international order, has a strong role for markets and a floating exchange rate, a largely open capital account and a dynamic and innovative financial sector can prosper in today's complex world.
I promised openness and transparency. So now to some of the issues, or challenges, that we face.
The first is to reinvigorate productivity growth. Australia, like many other advanced economies has experienced slower productivity growth over the past decade. In our case, this has been partly due to a large increase in mining investment in response to soaring commodity prices. In recent years though, as the new production made possible by all this investment has come on stream, the productivity figures have improved. This is clearly good news, although underlying productivity growth remains relatively modest.
A number of structural factors are at work here. If we do not address these factors, then we will have to adjust to noticeably slower growth in our average incomes than we have become used to. In some ways, this adjustment has already started and it is proving difficult. On the more positive side, there is no shortage of things that could be done to lift our performance. The challenge is that most of these ideas require difficult political trade-offs.
A related challenge is how best to capitalise on the opportunity that the economic development of the Asian region provides. We have benefited from the surge in commodity prices driven by the rapid industrialisation of China, and from the increased demand for our food products, tourism, education and other services as incomes in Asia have grown.
But it is a competitive world out there, and other countries see these opportunities too. So we need to find ways of building upon our strengths to bring goods and services to growing Asian markets at competitive prices. Lifting our productivity is a good place to start.
A third issue is the task of providing adequate high-quality infrastructure to help our citizens be as productive as they can and enjoy a high quality of life. As I said earlier, our population is growing strongly which is a source of dynamism for our economy. But this growth can put strains on our infrastructure, including on transport infrastructure.
These strains can reduce public support for a growing population. They can also impair our ability to compete and to be as productive as we can be. Good transport infrastructure, for example, opens up opportunities for people and opens markets. It also improves communities. Investment in transportation infrastructure can also play an important role in addressing housing affordability, which is an increasingly important issue.
Infrastructure investment does of course need to be paid for. The positive news here is that there is no shortage of finance for the right projects. The task we face then is to identify the best possible projects, harness the planning capacity of government, design the best deal structures to attract private finance where it makes sense to do so, make sure that the construction process is as efficient as possible and price use appropriately. These are challenging things to do, but they are not beyond our capabilities.
The final issue that I will mention this evening is that of ensuring that our public finances are on the right track. Australia has a good historical record here. Net government debt, as a share of GDP, is still low, although it is higher than it used to be. Our good record has provided us with a form of insurance. It meant that when difficult times did strike last decade, fiscal policy had the capacity to play a stabilising role. We had options that not all other countries enjoyed.
Looking forward, we need to make sure that we continue to have this insurance. We can do this by rebuilding our fiscal buffers. This too is a challenging thing to do, particularly given the additional demands being placed on government. A related complication is that simultaneously we need to make sure that our tax system is internationally competitive.
One example of this complication is in the area of corporate tax, where there is a form of international tax competition going on in an effort to attract foreign investment. Like other countries, we face the challenge of responding to this, while achieving a balance between recurrent spending and fiscal revenue.
So those are some of the issues we face. Of course, there are others too. No doubt you will discuss these over the course of this conference.
I would like now to turn to the near-term outlook for the Australian economy. The Reserve Bank will be releasing updated detailed forecasts tomorrow in our quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy.
For 2017 and 2018, these forecasts will show little change from our earlier forecasts. Over the next couple of years we expect GDP growth to be around the 3 percent mark. In both years it will be boosted by a significant pick-up in LNG production. And the headwinds that we have been experiencing from the unwinding of the biggest mining investment boom in a century will blow themselves out. Indeed, we are already around 90 per cent of the way through the fall from the peak to expected trough in mining investment.
Another headwind we have had over recent years – that is the decline in our terms of trade – has already stopped. Since earlier last year, a rise in global commodity prices has provided a boost to our national income. And the improvement in the global economy since late last year should also help us.
So, with the end of the unwinding of the mining investment boom in sight, the economy is in reasonable shape. Unexpectedly, GDP did fall in the September quarter last year, but this largely reflected a confluence of temporary factors. We expect that in the December quarter, the economy returned to reasonable growth.
Inflation remains low, running at around 1½ per cent in both headline and underlying terms. Importantly, inflation is not expected to fall further. Instead, our central forecast is for underlying inflation to gradually rise over the next couple of years, and for headline inflation to increase a bit more quickly, boosted by increases in oil and tobacco prices.
We continue to pay close attention to the housing market and to household balance sheets. The picture varies widely across the country. Prices for houses in Sydney and Melbourne are rising strongly, but apartment prices in some cities, including Perth and Brisbane have fallen. The population is growing strongly, but there is a large number of additional dwellings to come onto the overall market this year. Growth in rents is weak, but vacancy rates in most markets are not unusually high. And investor demand looks to have strengthened in the closing months of 2016. So it is a complex picture.
One reason for trying to understand this complex picture is that the level of household debt is relatively high. Overall, households are coping reasonably well with this. But there are clearly risks. So it is a positive development that over the past couple of years, banks have tightened their lending standards in some areas. This tightening was partly prompted by the supervisory measures put in place by the prudential regulator, APRA, and the Reserve Bank and APRA continue to work closely together monitoring developments.
Another issue that we are paying close attention to is developments in the labour market. Employment growth slowed over 2016 and the growth that did take place was almost entirely in part-time employment. As is the case with the housing market, conditions vary across the country. Looking forward, the number of job vacancies and job ads suggest that some strengthening in employment growth might be in prospect. Our central forecast though is for the unemployment rate to remain close to its current level for some time to come.
In summary then, the Bank's central scenario is for some pick-up in economic growth and for inflation to move gradually higher. As always, though, there are risks around that outlook. As our record demonstrates, our economy does have a degree of resilience and flexibility that has allowed us to maintain stability during a pretty difficult time in the global economy.
There is no reason that this can't continue. But we do need to continue to build that resilience, while we take advantage of the considerable advantages that we have as a nation.
 
</body></html>

Latest Finance Insights

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

Editor's Picks

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Latest Finance Insights

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News