<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> has lodged plans for a $750 million, three-tower mixed-use precinct that would complete the long-running redevelopment of Carlton's former Carlton United Breweries site.

The proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/185-195-queensberry-street-carlton-vic-3053">46-78 Bouverie Street and 185-195 Queensberry Street</a> spans a 6,468 sqm site, the last remaining undeveloped parcels within the former brewery's 2007 masterplan.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the development will comprise two purpose-built student accommodation towers and a third build-to-sell apartment tower above a shared commercial podium and basement.

Across the three towers, SP Setia is proposing 606 build-to-sell apartments and 1,499 student accommodation units containing 2,009 beds.

The apartments will sit in the tallest tower, which will rise nearly 200m and 55 storeys. It will become&nbsp;one of the more substantial new build-to-sell apartment projects at the northern edge of Melbourne's CBD.

The apartment mix is weighted toward smaller inner-city product, with 188 studios, 206 one-bedroom apartments, 192 two-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedroom apartments

<img alt="First look: SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8271bc87-1b0a-41b7-ac73-a425ee375261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/3_2.png?VersionId=G4lw23o90B1boX4k4dj7rdz2ZEajS9wy" />

Part of the precinct will be a large-scale&nbsp;3,684 sqm supermarket and a further 2,198 sqm of speciality retail, creating close to 5,900 sqm of new commercial space within the precinct.

But one of the biggest components of the proposal is what sits between the buildings.

Around 4,650 sqm, or roughly 72 per cent of the site, will be publicly accessible open space, incorporating plazas, pedestrian connections, landscaped laneways and retail spill-out areas.

The ground plane is intended to finally complete pedestrian connections envisaged when the CUB masterplan was first approved nearly two decades ago, stitching together Victoria Street, Queensberry Street, Bouverie Street and Swanston Street through the former brewery precinct.

Urbis said the development would "complete the CUB precinct", with the public realm providing important north-south and east-west connections through what is currently the final undeveloped portion of the masterplanned site.

SP Setia is also exploring a new linear park within the Bouverie Street road reserve, with the concept to be developed further with the City of Melbourne through the planning process.

The proposal is being pursued through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program under Clause 53.23 for significant residential development with affordable housing.

The planning report acknowledges the proposed heights exceed those contemplated under the original Comprehensive Development Plan and masterplan, but argues the built-form context has changed considerably over the past two decades.

Urbis said the three towers would instead create a stepped transition between Carlton and the Hoddle Grid, rising progressively from the 94.1-metre Tower One along the Queensberry Street edge to the 199.44-metre Tower Three closer to the established CBD-scale buildings to the south.

<img alt="SP Setia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e885a07a-592c-40fc-bf82-e6dbaf32da54" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.52.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7s_ErUkSKAdY1mAWp3GRZgMNCGtwhk5m" />

SP Setia plans to deliver the development across three stages.

Stage One would deliver the basement, podium and retail areas for the entire precinct alongside the first student tower. Tower Two would follow in Stage Two, before the 606-apartment Tower Three is delivered as the final stage.

If approved and delivered, the project would close out a redevelopment process that has been underway since the former brewery masterplan was approved in 2007, adding more than 2,600 student beds and apartments to a precinct already home to Swanston Central, the Barak Building, RMIT Design Hub and several large student accommodation developments.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct

Melbourne developer Lowe Living is seeking to add to its growing bayside apartment pipeline, filing plans for a boutique eight-residence development in tightly held Middle Park.

Lowe Living, which has built much of its development portfolio across Melbourne's affluent bayside and south-east suburbs, is behind the plans for the 730 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/123-125-erskine-street-middle-park-vic-3206">123-125 Erskine Street</a>, just off Armstrong Street and within the Armstrong Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre.

The developer is seeking approval for a five-storey residential building above two basement levels, with just eight large-format apartments and 18 car spaces.

“This is a deliberately very different proposition for us,"&nbsp;Tim Lowe, Co-Founder of Lowe Living, said.

"Eight residences is exceptionally boutique, but that's precisely what this site calls for.

“There is a strong community in Middle Park and the surrounding suburbs who have spent decades building a life here. They no longer want the maintenance of a large period home, but they aren't prepared to compromise on space, quality or location. We think there is a real opportunity to capture that hyper local market. A site like this rarely comes to market.”

<img alt="Lowe " data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="875fe572-0f14-4d90-9e11-55b28dd07731" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.42.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GDNQRv9BfpR9r1zkZ5UDyUM4ZvpIksut" />

The low-density proposal has been designed by Cera Stribley and is being progressed through the Victorian Government's Great Design Fast Track pathway, having already secured eligibility from the Minister for Planning.

The Office of the Victorian Government Architect supported its eligibility after finding the proposal demonstrated consistency with the program's seven design principles, while the project's financial feasibility has also been independently confirmed by Invest Victoria.

The project is targeting the downsizer market, with the planning documents describing the homes as larger-format residences and noting the two penthouses could otherwise have been configured as four separate apartments.

<img alt="Lowe 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="60ab0987-2da6-4175-adac-315dcf6053c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bOCPH0B2MFwlmaRW.TTCF9TzyifgVoQI" />

The site has dual frontage to Erskine Street and Canterbury Place and currently comprises a collection of commercial buildings used as offices, including a former heritage bakehouse, a former stable, a later gabled addition and a central courtyard.

It sits within the Commercial 1 Zone and the Armstrong Street Commercial Precinct heritage overlay, with the existing property classified as a contributory heritage place.

Heritage has subsequently played a significant role in Cera Stribley's design.

The front section of the former bakehouse facing Erskine Street will be retained, including its return walls, street-facing hipped roof and chimneys, while the Erskine Street façade and part of the western return wall of the former stable will also be incorporated into the new development.

Levels four and five will be set back five metres from the retained stable façade, while bricks removed through demolition are proposed to be salvaged and reused within the new building where possible.

<img alt="Lowe 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e97927a9-a2de-4a0f-83b6-65451238abfa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VR44AChLrX9q1XPB9GvVQV.ALXXbe4gC" />

Rather than presenting as a single five-storey building to Erskine Street, Cera Stribley has broken the development into a series of distinct forms.

A three-storey infill element will sit between the retained bakehouse and stable façades, with the upper levels recessed behind the heritage fabric. Canterbury Place will similarly feature two three-storey podium forms, separated by a central pedestrian accessway, before the upper two levels step back from the street.

A pedestrian through-link will run through the centre of the project between Erskine Street and Canterbury Place, creating entrances from both sides of the site and introducing landscaping and communal areas through the ground plane.

Landscape architect Acre has designed planting across the ground level, private terraces and upper levels, including a feature canopy tree at level three and integrated planting and arbours across the level four terraces. Five existing Erskine Street trees are proposed to be retained.

Sustainability is also a significant component of the Great Design Fast Track application. The apartments are targeting an average eight-star NatHERS rating, with no residence below 6.5 stars, while the project has achieved a 75 per cent BESS score. Seven of the eight apartments are designed for cross-ventilation, with the remaining residence using mechanically assisted natural ventilation.

The plans also incorporate an 8kWp rooftop solar system, a 5,000-litre rainwater tank and infrastructure allowing future electric vehicle charging for every residence.

Lowe has a strong portfolio across Melbourne's blue-chip suburbs. They recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House by Lowe Living</a> in Camberwell, their first development in the Stonnington LGA.

Lowe Living unveils Middle Park apartment development

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

<a data-end="327" data-is-only-node="" data-start="250" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/norus-projects" rel="noopener" target="_new">Norus Developments</a> has lodged plans for a new apartment development in Clayton that would add further momentum to the suburb's emerging Green Street corridor.

Plans have been lodged for the consolidated site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1359-1365-centre-road-clayton-vic-3168">1359-1365 Centre Road</a>, where Norus is seeking approval for 218 apartments across a 12-storey apartment building designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/life-architecture-and-urban-design">Life Architecture</a>.

The proposal sits within the Clayton Major Activity Centre at the threshold of the planned Green Street corridor, a landscaped pedestrian connection intended to improve links through the precinct towards Clayton Railway Station.

The development would replace the site's existing collection of low-scale residential and commercial buildings with a single consolidated building, introducing significantly greater housing density to this part of Centre Road.

A retail tenancy is proposed at ground level to activate the Centre Road frontage, accompanied by transparent street interfaces and landscaping intended to create a more pedestrian-focused edge to the development.

<img alt="First look: Norus Developments plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a5a763a-d9e9-4253-af2f-88008de27ebf" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Clayton%20a.png?VersionId=S2WJJbat1XVkZwB9SnYtygirXgWHiklX" />

The building has been designed with stepped massing and upper-level setbacks to manage its transition towards surrounding residential properties. The planning report describes the approach as one that integrates the building into the landscape rather than treating landscaping as a secondary element.

"A strong landscape and public realm strategy underpins the proposal," Urbis states in the planning report.

"Public benefits include an affordable housing contribution, a new pocket park, generous landscaped setbacks, deep soil planting and integrated Water Sensitive Urban Design."

The report adds that these elements are intended to create "a permeable, pedestrian-focused ground plane that enhances walkability, supports urban cooling and reinforces the emerging Green Street character."

Biophilic and passive design principles extend through the residential levels, with planting, daylight, natural ventilation and views towards landscaped areas forming part of the amenity strategy.

Parking would be concentrated away from the public realm, with 145 car spaces proposed from the rear laneway rather than dominating the Centre Road frontage.

The proposal follows an extensive pre-application process with the City of Monash. Three formal meetings were held between the project team and Council from December 2025 to March 2026, with the scheme evolving through several concept iterations before the current design was lodged.

The project arrives as Clayton prepares for substantial change around its established activity centre and the wider Suburban Rail Loop precinct. Its position on Centre Road places the development within an existing concentration of shops, services and public transport, while the Green Street connection is intended to strengthen pedestrian access towards Clayton Railway Station.

First look: Norus plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> has officially commenced construction on Bronze on Chevron, celebrating the sod turning of its first-ever Gold Coast development and marking a significant milestone in the company's continued expansion across South East Queensland.&nbsp;

Following the successful delivery of premium residential developments throughout Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-chevron-island-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> represents Gardner Vaughan Group's entry into the Gold Coast market. Bronze will deliver 119 one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments above two ground-level retail tenancies.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367193]

The recent sod turning ceremony was attended by Deputy Mayor Mark Hammel, President of the Surfers Paradise Surf Life Saving Club, Cassandra Sedgman, project consultants, purchasers, project partners and invited guests to celebrate the commencement of construction.&nbsp;

Gardner Vaughan Group Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge said Bronze on Chevron represented an exciting new chapter for the business.&nbsp;

"We've spent almost four decades building homes that respond to the way people want to live, and we're excited to bring that experience to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chevron-island-qld-4217">Chevron Island</a>," Betteridge said.

"Bronze on Chevron is particularly significant because it marks Gardner Vaughan Group's first development on the Gold Coast following many successful projects across Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367183]

Betteridge said the ground breaking is a proud moment for the&nbsp;team and their purchasers, who can now see their future homes beginning to take shape.&nbsp;

"As both developer and builder, we're able to oversee every aspect of the project from design through to construction, ensuring the quality and attention to detail Gardner Vaughan Group has become renowned for."&nbsp;

Designed by acclaimed architectural practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, Bronze on Chevron has been thoughtfully designed to complement Chevron Island's evolving streetscape while embracing its relaxed coastal lifestyle.

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029

Gardner Vaughan Group breaks ground on first Gold Coast development, Bronze on Chevron

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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More than half (53%) of Australian households have no income left at the end of the month once they have paid their mortgage and other bills, according to the latest ME Bank Household Financial Comfort Report.
The report found that 43% of households break even and 10% spend more than they earn by drawing on savings, loans, credit or equity in their homes.
The most financially vulnerable are single parents, with 43% indicating they would not be able to maintain their lifestyle for a fortnight without a pay cheque, compared with 20% of couples with young children, 16% of couples with older children, and 9% of retirees.
The findings were based on a survey of 1,500 households and show that retirees (5.56 out of 10) and couples with older children (5.15) are households most comfortable with their level of savings.
Click to enlarge
<a title="Click to enlarge" rel="shadowbox" href="/images/stories/2012/09/meoct1.jpg"><img src="/images/stories/2012/09/meoct1thumb.jpg"></a>
Source: ME Bank
Evidence of a lack of a financial buffer for many Australian households comes a day before the RBA makes a decision about whether to lower the cash rate at its October monetary policy meeting.
A 25-basis-point rate cut would cut mortgage repayments by about $50 a month on a $280,000 variable mortgage.
It also provides some granularity to ABS household savings data, which shows that the saving rate from current household disposable income was at about 9.5% in the first half of 2012, relatively high by historical standards.
Jamie McPhee, CEO of ME Bank, says the findings indicate large segments of the Australian population are finding it difficult to save from current income.
“A savings buffer is critical if households lose an income and unsurprisingly it is those households who have low comfort with their level of savings who also report they would struggle to manage if they lost their income.”
“Banks have a responsibility to help people save through helping customers better understand their finances, providing lower cost banking products, and being straightforward and responsible in their interactions with customers,” he adds.
Despite the struggle for many to save money, the report found an overall improvement in household financial comfort, which increased to 5.39 (out of 10) in June 2011 from 5.20 in October 2011 as measured by ME Bank’s Household Financial Comfort Index.
The index measures overall household financial comfort, by asking respondents to estimate their financial comfort as well as their expectations and confidence across 11 measures, and the gap between perceived financial comfort and an objective measure of their actual financial situation.
The index also showed household financial comfort is influenced by employment status, with part-time (4.87 out of 10) and casual workers (5.07 out of 10) having the lowest financial comfort of people with jobs, while unemployed people (4.40 out of 10) had the lowest financial comfort of all.
Superannuation was shown to be the most significant driver of higher levels of financial comfort, with high comfort levels (greater than eight out of 10) observed for households with super balances of greater than $200,000.
On a state-by-state basis ACT households are the most financially comfortable (6.22 out of 10) followed by Western Australia (5.64), Victoria (5.62) and Tasmania (5.60), which are all above the national average (5.39).
Both Victorian households and Tasmanian households recorded an improvement in financial comfort compared with the October index.
South Australians are the least comfortable with a comfort rating of just 4.84
“The fall in financial comfort for South Australian households reflected deterioration in all components of the Index and was also related to greater perceived difficulties in finding a job in South Australia compared to the rest of the country,” say McPhee.
“Financial comfort remained fairly stable for New South Wales and Western Australia, with the former less comfortable than Australia as a whole and the latter significantly more comfortable.
“Financial comfort for Queensland households is similar to Australia as a whole, reflecting a significant improvement up from a low in October 2011 that was associated with the earlier negative impacts of last year’s widespread flooding and Cyclone Yasi," he says.
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lschlesinger-FZcF9M3vE6

Half of households just managing to pay mortgage and other bills: ME Bank survey

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ANZ recorded a lift in its customer satisfaction rating in August, reversing a slide that began soon after the bank announcing that it would make interest rate decisions independently of the RBA.
The move to go it alone from the RBA since January has been widely described as a poor public relations move.
ANZ’s customer satisfaction rating improved by 0.8 points – it still remain in fourth place on 73.9% but is only just behind Westpac on 74.7%, according to the latest Roy Morgan Research survey.
All the major banks improved their customer satisfaction ratings over August.
Click to enlarge
<a href="/images/stories/2012/09/morganoct1.gif" rel="shadowbox" title="Click to enlarge"><img src="/images/stories/2012/09/morganoct1thumb.gif"></a>
NAB extended its lead as the major bank with the most satisfied customers, recording the biggest improvement over the month with a 1.3-percentage-point gain to 79.8%.
NAB leads the big four for both the most satisfied home loan and non-home loan customers.
NAB has had the lowest standard variable rate of the major banks for the past three years and has committed to maintaining this position throughout 2012 recorded the biggest improvement coming from NAB customers who increased by 1.3% points to make them a clear leader on 79.8%.
CBA remains in second place with 77.8% satisfaction but fell further behind NAB during August because it only showed a 0.2-percentage-point improvement.
But it remains well behind NAB in customer satisfaction for home loan customers (-3.5% points) and to a lesser extent their non-home loan customers (-2.1% points).
In August the business customers of the big four banks all showed a decline in satisfaction, which was in stark contrast to the improvement they all showed among their personal customers.
NAB shows the biggest gap in the satisfaction rating between personal and business customers, with a 16.7-point lower rating among their business customers. Westpac remains the clear leader among the big four with 66.6% business customer satisfaction, but Suncorp is the best performer among the major banks, with 72.1%.
Norman Morris, industry communications director at Roy Morgan Research, says the widening gap between satisfaction levels of the major banks personal and business customers should be of major concern as it is potentially an indication that in this uncertain economic environment more focus may have been placed on the relative safety of the personal bank customers at the expense of business.
“As a result, when the business outlook turns around the banks will have considerable ground to make up in order to gain and retain customers,” he says. 
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ANZ halts slide in customer satisfaction but NAB still best among mortgage holders: Roy Morgan Research

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The majority of economists expect the Reserve Bank to wait until the November Melbourne Cup day meeting to cut the cash rate, according to the latest Bloomberg poll.
Nineteen out of 28 economists polled by Bloomberg ahead of Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting expect the RBA to leave the cash rate on hold at 3.5%.
The major banks are giving no help with direction with two (ANZ and Westpac) expecting the RBA to cut the cash rate to 3.25% and two (Commonwealth Bank and NAB) tipping no change.
<a target="_blank" href="/news">Both ANZ and Westpac changed their minds last week </a>from a cash rate hold to a rate cut.
Others tipping an October rate cut include AMP Capital (Shane Oliver), Market Economics (Stephen Koukoulas), Macquarie Research, Moody’s Economy.com and UBS.
Economist Adam Carr – not polled by Bloomberg – is definitely not entertaining a rate cut next week.
“RBA should be hiking rates 25 with growth as strong as we've got! Crazy that they're even discussing cuts," <a href="https://twitter.com/AdamCarrEcon">he tweeted.</a>
November rate cut expectations are much stronger with 18 out of 28 economists tipping the Reserve Bank to continue to loosen monetary policy.
The RBA will make its decision at 2.30pm on October 2.
An earlier version attributed an Adam Carr tweet to AFR columnist Christopher Joye.
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Two-thirds of economists tipping rate hold next week, with the major banks divided: Bloomberg 

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May and June rate cuts have yet to stimulate a pick-up in mortgage lending.
According to  the latest RBA figures, housing credit increased by just 0.3% over August, matching  an increase of 0.3% over July.
Over the year to August, housing credit rose by 4.8% – the weakest annual growth in records going back 34 years.
“Housing credit has lost momentum under the weight of earlier tight monetary policy with the sector facing a number of headwinds,” notes Westpac.
The bank says owner-occupier credit is particularly subdued as the household sector continues to deleverage.
 “Three month annualised growth is now 3.1%, moderating from 6.9% at the end of 2010.
“In recent months many have maintained mortgage repayments at current levels, notwithstanding interest rate reductions. This results in a more rapid paying down of the loan.
“The investor market has been a little more resilient, with credit to investors up 5.4% over the year and 5.5% annualised over the last three months. 
“Monetary policy moved into the expansionary zone with the RBA's May and June rate cuts and further rate cuts are in prospect. We expect a lift in housing credit growth over the year ahead as people respond to the improvement in housing affordability. Although, a sustained strong upswing is unlikely in the current environment,” says Westpac.
Total credit provided to the private sector by financial intermediaries rose by 0.2% over August 2012, after rising by 0.2%over July.
Over the year to August, total credit rose by 4.1%.
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Mortgage lending up just 0.3% in August as owner-occupiers continue to deleverage: RBA 

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Unsecured creditors of Provident Capital have voted today to maintain Tony McGrath and Joseph Hayes of McGrath Nicol as joint and several voluntary administrators of the collapsed fund manager and non-bank lender.
McGrath Nicol were appointed by Australian Executor Trustees Limited (AET) on September 18.
AET represents debenture holders and successfully petitioned the Federal Court in July to place Provident in receivership and to freeze its mortgage funds.
Phil Carter, Tony Sims and Marcus Ayres of PPB Advisory <a href="/news">c</a><a target="_blank" href="/news">ontinue to represent AET debenture holders as receivers and managers of Provident Capital </a>and to seek to sell properties secured against loans to pay back $70 million owed to Bendigo Bank and then re-start payments to debenture holders.
Debenture holders are secured creditors.
“The Voluntary Administration process is another step which AET has undertaken to preserve potential actions that the Company may have against third parties which could give rise to future recoveries to repay debentureholder claims,” explains PPB Advisory.
“It also allows unsecured creditors to lodge their claim against the company.
“As all Debentureholders are secured creditors by virtue of AET’s security interest, individual debentureholders are not required to prove their claim in the Voluntary Administration, nor are they required to vote at any meeting of creditors.
“Rather AET in its capacity as security trustee will represent all debentureholders in the voluntary administration process.
“Control of the Company’s assets and business operations will otherwise remain with the receivers and managers.
“Any updates on the status of the Receivership will be communicated directly to debentureholders via post or on our website," sasy PPB Advisory.
All creditors will receive a detailed report from McGrath Nicol on October 17 regarding the company’s affairs and recommendations as to its future, which could include Provident being liquidated.
A second statutory meeting of creditors is due to be held on October 24 where creditors will vote on the recommendations made by McGrath Nicol.
A decision on Provident’s future will be made at the second statutory meeting.
Tell us what you know about the Provident collapse.
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Unsecured Provident Capital creditors meet

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The Reserve Bank is likely to leave interest rates on hold at its October monetary policy meeting next week, though it will be a close call, says HSBC Australia chief economist Paul Bloxham.
Bloxham says with inflation low, the RBA has scope to cut rates if it needs to.
“But we don’t think the hurdle has been met for a cut next week.
“We still favour a cut in November, assuming China’s economy does not show definite signs of recovery, and think that the 100 basis points of loosening priced in over the next year is too much," he says.
In his last RBA bulletin before Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting, Bloxham notes that housing prices are lifting, with a “solid rise in prices in September; home auctions in Sydney and Melbourne in recent weeks have seen rising clearance rates, a signal of improving turnover.
“Building approvals for housing are past their trough. Business credit has been growing in recent months, after falling in recent years.”
He has also not been swayed by the<a href="/news"> likes of Westpac’s Bill Evans</a>, who shifted his view last week from a November rate cut to an October rate cut.
Other economists tipping a rate cut next week include AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver, Stephen Koukoulas from Market Economics, Dominic Bryant from BNP Paribas Asia and ANZ Research.
Bloxham says there are two narratives the RBA board is following that will dictate its decision-making – where the global economy is heading and how previous rate cuts are impacting locally - and says other economists and commentators are over-analysing speeches and statements made by the central bank.
“Reading more into the RBA’s recent individual word choices, or phrasing, is false precision,” says Bloxham.
On the global front, Bloxham says the mid-year rate cuts of 75 basis points in May and June were made to get the RBA “ahead of the game” and that the “more subdued global outlook was needed to justify the current policy stance”.
Further deterioration globally would be necessary for the RBA to contemplate a rate cut.
“Globally, we think things are about the same as they were last month, on balance, from Australia’s perspective. China’s PMI (manufacturing index) was stable, commodity prices bounced back a little and QE3 (the US government bond-buying program) has removed some of the downside risk of a sharper US slowing. European conditions have weakened, but probably no more than expected,” says Bloxham.
Domestically, Bloxham says the RBA narrative has been that “the full effect of the previous cuts is yet to flow through, though they noted tentative signs that monetary policy is supporting the housing market and lifting business credit”.
“Domestic indicators suggest growth has been modest into the third quarter of 2012. Retail sales fell in July, but the RBA told us their liaison suggested sales rose in August.
“Business conditions and confidence tracked broadly sideways into August, and consumer sentiment has been steady. Employment and hours worked eased in August, but the unemployment rate remains low at 5.1%, despite RBA forecasts that it would head towards 5.5% in the second half of 2012.
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Stronger housing market among factors that will cause the RBA to keep the cash rate on hold next week: HSBC’s Paul Bloxham

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Since the GFC Australians have paid down a massive amount of their debt. So why have we seen record savings over the last four years? 
Well, consider this. 
Over the last four years we had predictions by some analyst of falls in property prices or at the very least subdued property prices. There are mixed predictions moving forward. Some are saying there won't be much growth for several years to come. 
If there is no growth it's much better to pay down loans because if you are not paying interest at say 6.15% then you are earning 6.15%. 
There are not many investments that are currently paying 6.15% return on your investment. 
Once the property market experiences growth again you will see investors going back to interest-only loans. 
At a normal long term capital growth of 8% per year plus a net rental return of 4%per year net giving a total return of 12% per year, it's better not to pay down the principal but to pay interest only. 
Instead of paying the principal back you would use the principal payments to cover another interest-only loan to buy another property. 
Two properties giving a return of 12% per annum less interest of 6% per annum gives you a net return on two properties instead of one property. This makes sense in a growth environment. 
But this does not make sense in a declining or flat environment. 
So one needs to roll with the punches. 
The rule of thumb is: 
1. In a growth environment pay interest only and maximise your cashflow to increase your asset base. 
2. In a down market or subdued market pay down the principal. It's the best return on your cash you will get.
Ed Chan is a founding partner of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.chan-naylor.com.au/">Chan and Naylor</a> accountants and a leading property tax specialist. He has co-authored three best-selling books as a seasoned property investor who understands the relationship between property investment and tax.
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echan-hSGJw4wwC5

When property investors should pay principal and interest on your mortgage

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High land prices have all but killed the Australian housing industry.
Lower housing starts has led to lower GST revenues (house construction attracts full GST), and lower stamp duty receipts are crippling state budgets and cruelling the chances of low and middle income earners to get a start in the housing market.
What has caused this slump in housing starts? Land prices.
Raw land for new housing developments should be close to its agricultural value – in other words, around $10,000 per hectare. But land released for residential development fetches up to $1 million per hectare – 100 times the agricultural price.
Government land management agencies and private land developers may well argue a lot of land has been released for residential development, but clearly it is not enough.
Only when urban growth boundaries are removed will we know a piece of land’s true value. It will then be a trade-off between price and distance. People may be prepared to travel another 10 or 15 minutes by car (10 to 20 kilometres) to get a cheaper block.
To highlight the “‘X’ years supply of land available” argument, I heard a state bureaucrat say recently that the government had released enough land for 15 years’ supply. I raised my hand and asked “15 years’ supply – at what price?” He didn’t know what I meant. I said “at $200,000 a block it may well take 15 years to sell. So why don’t you double the price and then you’ll have 30 years’ supply?”
These points highlight the fact that, as with most central planning, housing planning is based on a fundamental flaw – that price does not matter. But as we know, price does matter. Imagine the demand for housing if land was $100,000 per block cheaper. Think LCD, LED and plasma TVs over the past five years.
Australia does not have, and never has had, a housing affordability problem, it has a land affordability problem. The cost of building a new house has hardly moved in 20 years. Land prices however have skyrocketed. By restricting the amount of land available on the urban fringes of our cities, state governments have sent the price of entry-level housing through the roof.
The reasons state governments give for these restrictions all centre on urban planning. They have persisted with their policies of urban densification (squeezing more and more people into existing suburbs), an idea that has failed all over the world.
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Whether it’s traffic congestion, air pollution, the destruction of bio-diversity or the unsustainable pressure on electricity, water, sewage or stormwater infrastructure, urban densification has been a disaster. The evidence is overwhelming; urban densification is not good for the environment, it does not save water, it does not lead to a reduction in motor vehicle use, it does not result in nicer neighbourhoods, it does not stem the loss of agricultural land, it does not save on infrastructure costs for government and, worst of all, it puts home ownership out of the reach of those on low and middle incomes.
State governments use urban planning laws to restrict the amount of fringe land available and then drip feed it through their land management agencies to a land- starved housing industry at inflated prices. Hmmm. After a change of state government a few years ago, a former cabinet minister was asked why her government didn’t release more land to kick-start the housing industry. She replied: “We needed the money.” So much for urban planning.
And of course land developers with massive land banks on their books urge state governments to maintain the scarcity to maintain the ‘value’ of the developers’ inventory. Developers would be better off if they supported the removal of urban growth boundaries and allowed more broadacre land to come onto the market, which they could buy at greatly reduced prices. With land prices significantly lower than they are today it wouldn’t take long for the industry to recover. Until land prices fall, there will be no recovery.
The Australian housing industry is building 40,000 fewer homes a year than it should be. That’s more than $10 billion worth of work a year the industry is missing out on. That’s a lot of bricks, concrete, timber, tiles, steel and, of course, labour.
Governments and industry associations have known for years this was coming but just played footsies with each other – read US economist George Stigler’s book Regulatory Capture to understand how and why this happens.
Australia’s economy has been seriously distorted due to a massive over-investment in household debt. We have a housing industry on its knees. Getting all this back into alignment with reality will take time, but it is a realignment that is necessary.
We cannot continue to deny the next generation a home of their own merely to satisfy the indulgences of urban planners and state government treasury officials.
Bob Day AO is managing director of national home builder <a href="https://www.homeaustralia.com.au/" target="_blank">Home Australia</a>
This article originally appeared on <a href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/" target="_blank">Business Spectator.</a>
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cknowlton-QnEa6ntUYP

High land prices are killing the housing construction industry: Bob Day

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The procession of mortgage lenders cutting fixed rates has continued, with Suncorp Bank reducing its three-year fixed home loan to 5.48% per annum effective today.
The bank now offers the lowest three-year fixed home loan of both the major banks and the regional banks.
Yesterday <a href="/news">St George cut its three-year fixed home loan to 5.49%</a> under its Advantage Package offering. 
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="1"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="242">
 
</td>
<td valign="top" width="242">
 Three-year fixed
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="242">
1. Suncorp Bank
</td>
<td valign="top" width="242">
5.48%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="242">
2. Bankwest
</td>
<td valign="top" width="242">
5.54%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="242">
3. BOQ
</td>
<td valign="top" width="242">
5.55%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="242">
4. St George
</td>
<td valign="top" width="242">
5.49%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="242">
5. CBA, Westpac and NAB
</td>
<td valign="top" width="242">
5.74%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="242">
6. ANZ
</td>
<td valign="top" width="242">
5.79%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="242">
7. Bendigo
</td>
<td valign="top" width="242">
5.94%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
“The advantage of the Suncorp Bank three-year fixed-rate is that it can be taken as part of a package or as a standalone rate, unlike other offers that only allow discounted rates as part of a package,” says Suncorp Bank’s  Steven Heavey.
“The benefit of a fixed-rate loan is that you know exactly how much you have to repay each fortnight or month and can budget accordingly. This feature can be especially beneficial for first home owners as they adjust to having a mortgage.
“One disadvantage, however, is the loss of flexibility. For example, you generally can’t make additional repayments on fixed loans.
“If you want to hedge your bets, consider partially fixing your loan and keeping the rest at a variable rate,” he says.
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Suncorp Bank cuts three-year fixed-rate home loan to 5.48%

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Earlier this month, the big four banks gave their predictions on the official cash rate’s likely movements over the next year. Although none of them predicted an increase, the figures were startlingly different. 
NAB: No change
Commonwealth: -0.25 percentage points
ANZ: -0.5 percentage points
Westpac: -0.75 percentage points 
The big four’s predictions varied by three quarters of a percentage point – demonstrating that even chief economists, who are highly knowledgeable about and attuned to interest rate cycles, are really only making an educated guess. 
Small wonder that most home buyers and investors are confused about interest rate movements. It doesn’t help, of course, that most people decide to choose or switch to a fixed rate based on commentary about likely variable rate movements. 
The fixed-rate interest cycle always runs about six months ahead of variable-rate interest cycle. That’s why, even though the big four’s recent variable rate predictions differed wildly, their fixed rates are almost identical. Their current three-year fixed rates range from 5.59% to 5.64% – hardly a piece of paper between them. 
Fear and greed: the sure routes to poor decision-making 
History tells us that when the variable rate is rising, a fear of further rate rises drives people to lock in their interest rates. By contrast, when the variable rate is falling, greed drives them to avoid locking in their interest rate. In both cases, they are motivated by a desire to get the timing exactly right. 
The following graph from RP Data shows the percentage of fixed term loans as a proportion of all home loans over the last 10 years.
<img src="/images/stories/2012/09/xaviersept25.jpg">
The graph shows that in 2007, when the share market was booming and interest rates were at 7%, around a quarter of all new loans were fixed. Because a fixed interest rate is essentially a hedge against future variable interest rate rises, most people would have fixed their home loan at this time based on a fear that variable rates would keep rising. 
By contrast, in 2009, when the cash rate was down at 3%, less than 5% of new loans were fixed. Based on a desire to obtain the lowest possible variable rate, the other 95% would have waited until they believed variable rates had hit bottom before making a decision about fixing their loans.
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Fixed rate cycle set to bottom out 
Home buyers and investors who wait to fix their loan until the variable rate bottoms out will always be around six months behind the fixed interest rate cycle – meaning they will never fix at the most advantageous time. 
The current standard variable rate home loan for all the major banks is around 6.9%, and most home loans include a 0.7 percentage point discount off the standard variable rate. This means most people are on a variable rate of 6.2%. 
Even if the Reserve Bank cuts the cash rate by the most bullish prediction of 0.75 percentage points over the next year, and even if all the banks pass on the rate cut in full (which, on recent form, isn’t likely), this will only bring retail variable rates down to a similar level as the current three-year fixed rate. 
What's more, the best fixed rate of any major lender in the downwards phase of the last fixed rate cycle was around 4.99%; and that offer only lasted a couple of weeks. There is no doubt that we are very close to the bottom of the current fixed rate cycle. Historically speaking, this means the current three-year fixed rates are extremely good value. 
The bottom line? 
Any decision about whether or not to fix your interest rate should always be guided by your individual circumstances. However no one, not even the big four’s chief economists, ever knows for sure what will happen to the variable interest rate. If it is right for you and you lock in now, you can be sure you are not making a big mistake. 
Yes, lenders may put slightly better offers on the table over the next six months, but that won't mean you've made a blunder. You might not have gotten it 100% right, but you might have gotten 90% right — and as Warren Buffett says, I'd rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong! 
Xavier Perronnet is a director of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ipropertyplan.com.au/">iProperty Plan</a>, which provides independent analysis and tailored advice to investors and home buyers.
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