Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
</section>
</section>

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Local Little Bay residents, along with buyers from premium postcodes across Sydney’s affluent Eastern Suburbs, have dominated purchases in developer-builder Urban Property Group’s first Eastern Suburbs apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a>.

The $250 million coastal project, one of the first new developments in the area in several years, has proven particularly popular with downsizers, especially those from Coogee and Bondi. One Double Bay downsizer paid $4.7 million for a four-bedroom penthouse, setting a new local apartment price record in the process.

Buyers have been attracted to the combination of coastal tranquillity, premium design and amenity-rich neighbourhood living. The walkable village setting, along with proximity to three of Sydney’s leading golf courses, New South Wales Golf Club, St Michael’s Golf Club and The Coast Golf Club, has also been a key drawcard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352689]

Built across two low-rise buildings designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hill-thalis-architecture-urban-projects-pty-ltd">Hill Thalis</a> and set along a lush, landscaped green spine, designed by leading landscape architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>, ESTE Little Bay offers a collection of one, two, three and four-bedroom residences with interiors by Richards Stanisich.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> Sales Director, Tom McIvor said the response to ESTE has been "nothing short of extraordinary."

“Buyers have been quick to recognise ESTE as a rare opportunity to invest in a coastal sanctuary that offers both seclusion and connectivity to the heart of Sydney,” McIvor said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352687]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">SRM Residential</a> Senior Director, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">Clayton Ross</a> said the local market has responded incredibly well, driven by ESTE’s exceptional location and the rarity it offers.

“We’ve seen strong interest from a variety of buyer groups, all of whom are drawn to the exclusivity and quality of the build and construction by the 4.5-star iCIRT-rated builder / developer, Urban Property Group. There’s truly nothing else like it along Sydney’s coastline.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352690]

The project also includes robust buyer protections, including Resilience Insurance’s Latent Defects Insurance, providing 10 years of structural cover, and an independent iCIRT-rating of the developer.

“The iCIRT-rating adds another layer of confidence,” Ross added. “Buyers see it as a safeguard for their investment and their lifestyle.” A highlight of ESTE’s offering is its exclusive wellness amenities, including a heated rooftop infinity pool and outdoor heated spa, a state-of-the-art Technogym fitness centre, and a sauna.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a> is topped out and is on track to complete towards the end of 2026, with residents moving in before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112343]

Eastern Suburbs buyers snap up ESTE Little Bay apartments

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sunland-group">Sunland Group</a> has officially lodged plans for its first Gold Coast apartment project since the departure of the Abedian family from the company three years ago, unveiling a new high-rise proposal for a prominent Broadbeach corner site on Old Burleigh Road.

The application was submitted by an entity directed by Tom Jamieson, stepson of longtime Sunland leader Soheil Abedian, and Riaz Rezvanipour, brother-in-law of Sahba Abedian, Soheil’s son.

Sunland acquired the 1,283 sqm site on the corner of Old Burleigh Road and Armrick Avenue for $9.5 million late last year and is now seeking approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/99-101-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">42-storey tower with 81 apartments</a>.

<img alt="First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fea2946d-90ee-4cfc-babe-2a8ad5db2cb6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers.png?VersionId=BV0fihJw31nDIQ8ozY_h3GbS8mxDyhnm" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/contreras-earl-architecture">Contreras Earl Architecture</a>, the proposed tower at 99-101 Old Burleigh Road would deliver a predominantly larger-format apartment mix aimed at the owner-occupier market. Plans include 17 two-bedroom apartments, 55 three-bedroom apartments, and nine four-bedroom residences across 35 residential levels.

The development also incorporates three basement levels, four podium parking levels, two levels of communal recreation facilities, and rooftop plant and equipment. A total of 189 car spaces are proposed, significantly exceeding the 90 spaces required under the planning scheme.

The architecture adopts a sculpted, curvilinear form, with deep wraparound balconies and integrated landscaping intended to soften the tower’s vertical expression. The planning report states the building’s “slender footprint/form provides a complimentary yet varied built form within the local streetscape” and contributes to “a varied, yet ordered skyline.”

Contreras Earl noted in its Architectural Statement that from the early stages, the project addressed a fundamental challenge: how to accommodate the required residential yield while avoiding the conventional model of a tower sitting on a rigid, fully resolved parking podium.

“The most direct response would have been to consolidate parking into a singular, flat podium and extrude a repetitive tower above,” the statement said. “While efficient, this approach would result in a consolidated built form with limited engagement with the surrounding landscape and public realm.”

Instead, the conventional podium model was “deliberately rejected”. The architects described the base of the building as “a landscaped architectural condition where structure, planting and circulation are integrated”.

“Rather than presenting a continuous built mass, the base of the building is articulated through a series of concrete planter elements that organise the podium into a fragmented system,” the statement said. “This approach reduces the perceived bulk of the lower levels while establishing a more permeable interface with the streetscape and adjacent open space.”

<img alt="Sunland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="923fad8d-c960-4527-8fbe-975cf1ddf88d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%2010.32.03%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pngwb0hYOIUpq9vDw6F2EsOiVuHF3DiX" />

&nbsp;

The site sits within the High Density Residential Zone and inside the City of Gold Coast’s unrestricted “HX” building height area, where the planning framework anticipates intensified residential development tied to the expanding light rail corridor. The planning report notes the area is undergoing “transition toward more intense development forms” given its proximity to Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise, and high-frequency public transport infrastructure.

Positioned directly opposite Broadbeach Park and within walking distance of Florida Gardens light rail station, the development would sit among a rapidly evolving stretch of Old Burleigh Road that has become one of the Gold Coast’s most active apartment development corridors.

The application joins a growing pipeline of luxury residential projects reshaping Broadbeach, including nearby developments by 5Point Projects, Polycell, and Graya.

The planning report argues the project contributes toward the Gold Coast’s long-term housing targets under the South East Queensland Regional Plan, which forecasts the need for more than 100,000 additional high-rise dwellings across the city by 2046.

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The Abedian family departed Sunland Group in late 2023, ending a four-decade association with the company, and subsequently established the private development firm Abedian &amp; Co. The group is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/greenmount-residences-cnr-hill-street-and-marine-parade-coolangatta-qld-4225">Greenmount Residences</a> at Rainbow Bay and recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/18-mary-avenue-14-18-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">18 Mary Avenue</a> in Broadbeach.
</section>

First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach new apartment market with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans

The Minns Labor Government has established the new Bays West Delivery Authority to lead the development&nbsp;of the Bays West Precinct and Blackwattle Bay Precinct.&nbsp;

The Authority is charged with creating Sydney’s newest precinct, a thriving, connected, sustainable hub with White Bay Power Station as its cultural heart. Its vision is to build on the area’s natural, cultural and industrial history to shape a vibrant new neighbourhood.

The precinct will deliver up to 8,500 well-located homes, including a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes. Combine new housing with public open space, opening public access to the waterfront for the first time in more than 100 years, while retaining important deep-water facilities to support Sydney’s working harbour.

Located just minutes from the Sydney CBD and connected to a world-class metro, ferry, walking and cycling links, the Bays West precinct will rebalance housing growth towards well-serviced inner-city locations and help tackle the state’s housing crisis.

The Bays West Delivery Authority,&nbsp;an agency of the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, will report to the NSW Minister for Lands and Property who already has oversight of major precinct renewal projects including at Blackwattle Bay and Barangaroo.

As part of the broader Bays West transformation, the Minns Government recently announced that a proposal from Lendlease to redevelop part of the Bays West Precinct has progressed to Stage 2 of the NSW Government’s unsolicited proposals process.

<img alt="Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2ed71eb9-d8e8-4fa7-b9d1-de4531dcf2f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%209.42.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=IDryFIbped9SNDg72LEN_EecvhUsOPvp" />

The Minns Labor Government has also confirmed the Bays West precinct will have a new suburb name. This will be the first major suburb built in close proximity to Sydney’s CBD in decades and will encompass the area currently being referred to as Bays West, including Glebe Island and the White Bay Power Station. Served by a new Metro station just five minutes from the CBD, it will become one of the most populous suburbs in the Inner West and one of Sydney’s premier cultural destinations.

An early works program is taking shape, which&nbsp;includes the first stages of an international design competition.&nbsp;

The aim of the Bays West&nbsp;International&nbsp;Design Competition is to&nbsp;ensure design excellence is embedded in the project from the start. The competition will deliver an&nbsp;urban framework that defines the character, ambition and long-term identity of&nbsp;this&nbsp;former industrial precinct as it transitions to a vibrant, inclusive and sustainable residential&nbsp;neighbourhood.

The competition will be led by the Bays West Delivery Authority in partnership with Government Architect NSW.&nbsp;

It will launch with an invitation for a global Expressions of Interest, before moving to an invitation-only stage that will be assessed by a panel that&nbsp;will provide advice to Cabinet who will select a winner.

Premier of NSW, Chris Minns said the establishment of the new Authority is the first step in transforming the Bays West precinct into a vibrant, livable suburb minutes from the Sydney CBD and two stops from Hunter St Station on the Metro West line.

“The Authority will deliver well-located homes close to the heart of the city and integrate the new precinct with Blackwattle Bay and the new Sydney Fish Market.

“This is a generational opportunity to build a new suburb on the city’s edge and open the harbour foreshore to the public for the first time in a century.”&nbsp;

Minister for Lands and Property Steve Kamper said the new Bays West Delivery Authority established by the Minns Government will turbocharge the development of Sydney’s newest suburb.

“The Authority is working at a record pace to deliver an international design competition, planning pathways and a financial model so that this development benefits Sydney with well-designed homes in a central location, close to public transport, jobs, entertainment and essential services.

“If we want Sydney to stay liveable and affordable, we need to be bold about using underutilised government-owned land to deliver homes for the future while making sure essential working harbour functions can be accommodated.”

Bays West Delivery Authority established to "turbocharge" Sydney’s newest suburb

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

<html><body>
The unemployment rate holding firm at 5.4% in October should not prevent the RBA from cutting the cash rate to 3% on December 4, says ANZ.
Markets had tipped the unemployment to rise to 5.5%.
ANZ says that ongoing softer labour market conditions prevail and support its view that the RBA will need to reduce the cash rate further, with a 25-basis-point rate cut “pencilled in for December”.
Borrowers should take note of this forecast – ANZ was the only major bank to correctly tip the RBA to leave the cash rate on hold on Melbourne Cup Day in November.
According to ANZ, the key metric is not the overall unemployment rate, but the "employment-to-population ratio", which “fell a little further, meaning that jobs growth is not keeping pace with population growth”.
“The less-volatile, and in our view more important, ANZ job ads series points to further declines in this ratio coming months,” says ANZ.
EMPLOYMENT-TO-POPULATION RATIO VERSUS ANZ JOB ADS 
<img src="/images/stories/2012/11/anznov9.gif" width="470">
Sources: ABS, ANZ 
“Population growth is strengthening in Australia so stronger employment outcomes are necessary to stop upward pressure on the unemployment rate.
“At current rates of population growth (+27,000 per month), 17,000 net new jobs are required each month to keep the ratio of employment to population steady and prevent the unemployment rate rising (barring lower participation),” says ANZ.
There were 10,700 more people employed in October – well below the 17,000 required, while ANZ also points out that the ABS trend measure of employment growth has remained in the 2,000 to 2,500 range for the past four months, “which is clearly weak”. 
According to ANZ, the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 5.4% in October, following a “sharp 0.3 percentage point jump in September” confirms that “Australia’s labour market, while gradually deteriorating, is not collapsing”
The bank forecasts the jobless rate to rise to around 5.75% by mid-next year.
Taking a look at the jobs data, CommSec chief economist Craig James says there is “something for everyone”.
“The optimists could focus on the ongoing rise in full-time employment over the past four months and conclude all is fine.
“The pessimists would look at the fall in the participation rate and hours worked and conclude something more concerning."
But he says what is clear is that the labour market is “treading water”.
“Yes, it was encouraging that employment grew but more forward looking indicators like job advertisements have suggested that further labour market gains may be more circumspect. In fact internet and newspaper job advertisements have fallen for seven consecutive months, suggesting job growth is likely to flat line in coming months,” says James.
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lschlesinger-FZcF9M3vE6

ANZ finds gloom in jobs figures to suggest December RBA rate cut is likely

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John Symond’s Aussie Home Loans has reported a 27% year-on-year rise in both mortgage lodgement and settlements in October, its best monthly results since acquiring the Mark Bouris-founded Wizard Home Loans franchise in early 2009.
The October results build on a successful first quarter for Aussie, which recorded an overall settlement increase of 19% over the last year.
Aussie says the results reflect interest and enquiries from home buyers and refinancers and are a reflection of its marketing campaign “It’s smart to ask” fronted by Symond himself as well as more customer care initiatives and increased productivity from its 750 mortgage brokers.
The mortgage broker and lender, which is one-third owned by the Commonwealth Bank, did not provide actual dollar figures with this update.
“We have not seen enormous sales results like this since March 2009, when we acquired Wizard, so these results are exceptional, considering the soft market conditions and given they don’t include any acquisitions or other anomalies,” says Symond.
“Our first quarter has also been pleasing, with profit above budget as our sales team continues to deliver record settlements, supported by strong results from our Aussie home loan and non-mortgage product range.”
Aussie says all states recorded “strong settlement growth versus the prior year” but says there were “stellar performances from WA and Queensland”, which recorded 53% and 42% increases respectively.
Leads were up 35% on last year and at their highest level since 2006, “demonstrating continued customer support for the Aussie brand and mortgage broking overall”.
“Despite widespread pessimism about the state of the housing market, it appears that house prices have bottomed and there is a slight improvement in consumers’ confidence,” says Symond.
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Aussie Home Loans reports best monthly results since 2009 Wizard acquisition

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The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.4% in October, according to the latest seasonally-adjusted ABS update.
This was better than market expectations of 0.1 percentage point rise in unemployment to 5.5%.
The unchanged unemployment figure will be noted by the RBA as it thinks ahead to its last monetary policy meeting of the year on December 4.
It will also note this week's September retail trade figure, which also rose above forecasts by 0.5%.
Commonwealth Bank chief economist Michael Blythe says “the door to further rate cuts is still firmly ajar” but says the emphasis will be on inflation, with the next CPI quarterly figure only out in January 23.
"The main impediment to lower rates, however, appears to have been the third quarter CPI readings that were 'slightly higher than expected'
"So the message from the RBA’s [November] decision to remain on the sidelines this month is that inflation trends have become a little worrying.  And the Bank will presumably want to wait for the next round of price readings in late January before deciding whether further rate stimulus is appropriate.  The February Board meeting looks to be the next 'live' meeting for policy action," he says.
CommSec chief economist Craig James says rate cuts alone may be insufficient to provide the stimulus necessary to keep economy growing at a trend pace and prevent the unemployment rate from rising.
“Confidence and expectations will be all-important on whether further rate cuts are required, he says.
In its labour force update, the ABS reported that over October, the number of people employed increased by 10,700 to 11,523,200 driven by a strong rise in full-time employment, up 18,700 people to 8,130,100 offset by decreased part-time employment, down 8,000 people to 3,393,100. 
The number of people unemployed decreased by 8,800 people to 653,200 in October.
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October unemployment unchanged at 5.4% and better than forecast raises bar higher for December rate cut

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New global banking regulations will restrict funding to commercial property developments in Australia, according to the banking industry.
Westpac’s Gail Kelly says new regulations, named Basel III, raising the amount of capital and liquid assets banks must hold means Westpac can no longer finance risky commercial properties.
“Commercial property, unless it is delivering cross-sell activity, like the transactional business, and infrastructure, become less attractive from a return on equity point of view [as Basel III take effect],” Gail told the Australian Financial Review.
“With commercial property, it’s not just the high level of capital required [as a ratio to assets weighted for risk] but also the through the cycle impediments [structurally higher provisions for bad debts].”
She says that while bad debts in the industry are down, Westpac will be approving less loans to commercial developers.
Kevin Nixon from the Institute of International Finance, which works for global banks, wealth managers and insurance companies, says it is clear that the new capital and liquidity requirements would restrain lending to long-dated riskier projects such as infrastructure and commercial property.
“There are two elements - the extra capital required to be set against these loans but also the proportion of the loan which must be funded by either deposits or long-term debt,” Nixon told The Australian Financial Review.
“So that’s why long-dated infrastructure and long-dated commercial property becomes problematic.”
Nixon says the uncertainty about upcoming regulations, to be introduced in 2013, is restricting lending from banks.
“[The new regulations] will both increase and sustain the emphasis that banks place on deposit funding from retail customers, which will impact property funds and real estate investment trusts,” Brad Carr from NAB says.
He says this shift makes it more difficult for the funds and trusts to attract investors as the relative risk-reward skews to bank deposits, not property.
“The property funds that are best placed to absorb this impact will be the ones with greater access to raise capital from different sources,” Carr told The Australian Financial Review.
“It will be increasingly important to have a broader array of investor bases and funding options available, from domestic institutions, offshore bond investors, hybrid markets or bank debt.”
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awalsh-7Ub9EypybQ

New global banking regulations to restrict funding of commercial property developments: Gail Kelly

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Negative gearing should be viewed as a tool to get into a property investment rather than as a long-term strategy.
Investors should look to negatively gear over a short to medium time frame – no more than about five to seven years.
If you take a long-term view of your property investment, and property should always be a long-term consideration, if you are negatively geared for 20 years, that means that for 20 years you’re paying more money out of your pocket than you’re recouping from the property.
You need to view your investing in the same way you would a business. While it might be manageable to run at a loss for a short period of time as you establish and grow the business, it’s not sustainable long-term. At some stage your business – and your property investing – needs to be putting money back into your pocket.
Many people justify having their property negatively geared because they believe the capital growth of the property will make up for the losses in the long run.
While capital growth might have saved a lot of investors with negatively geared properties in recent years, I’d be cautious about relying on capital growth in the coming years.
Rather than focusing on capital growth, investors, particularly those on lower incomes, should be making investment decisions based on the income they can derive from their property.
Negative gearing generally works best for high-income earners than low-income earners. An investor on the highest marginal tax rate effectively gets 45¢ back for every $1 they spend on a negatively geared property. An investor on the lowest marginal tax rate gets 19¢ back for every $1.
When you calculate the net after tax cash flows of an investment property, being on a lower tax bracket means it’s actually costing more to run that strategy.
Ultimately, it’s actually the income that the property generates over time that is more important. For very long-term investments, it’s the income that has the most benefit and makes investing worthwhile.
Even if you get growth, that growth is really just making up for your losses, you’re not actually really moving forward.
It’s the surplus income over time – by having regular rent increases – that is going to make the difference.
A good mortgage adviser should be able to run some scenarios for you that will give you an idea of the cashflow of an investment property, potentially up to 20 years. These calculations will be indicative, but you’ll be able to see how much it’s going to really cost you.
It’s also important to seek advice from your accountant about the taxation implications of your investing.
Joe Sirianni is executive director of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.smartline.com.au/">Smartline</a>.
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jsirianni-sEFeNfmAJo

Negative gearing a tool, not a long-term property investment strategy

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Mark Bouris's Yellow Brick Road franchise has confirmed a mortgage funding tie-up with Macquarie Group, part of an ambitious and distinctly long-term plan to take on the major banks as the fifth banking pillar.
In a statement to the ASX, Yellow Brick Road chief executive Matt Lawler said it had signed an origination agreement with Macquarie Bank, the financial services subsidiary of Macquarie Group, to "develop branded banking and wealth management products and services, including the terms of a new mortgage funding and distribution arrangement".
Macquarie will provide wholesale mortgage funding to Yellow Brick Road, allowing the franchise to expand its mortgage offering with plans for further wealth management and banking products in 2013. In conjunction with the funding from Macquarie Bank, Yellow Brick Road has launched a range of discounted mortgage offers as part of a plan to offer a “much-needed alternative for Australian customers”.
The financial services group has launched what it calls “an aggressively priced range of mortgage products” with the details of these on its website today under the heading “Smash your home loan”.
<img src="/images/stories/2012/11/smash.jpg">
These include an introductory variable rate mortgage priced at 5.5% for the first 12 months (among the lowest offerings in the market) and available to all "successful mortgage applicants", not just a chosen few who qualify for a discounted offer.
The rate reverts to 5.79% after the first year with a comparison rate of 5.77%. The website also lists the ongoing rates of the major banks and some of the regional banks, starting with Westpac at 5.9%, with savings ranging from $7,000 (for current ANZ customers who refinance with Yellow Brick Road) rising to almost $23,000 (for Bank of Queensland customers) over a 25-year period for a principal and interest loan of $300,000.
The products will be distributed through Yellow Brick Road’s 140 branches located across Australia – with a heavy concentration of branches in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.
Yellow Brick Road will partner with Channel Nine to promote the offering, the same television channel that ran The Apprentice, featuring YBR executive chairman Mark Bouris as the host.
All of this is part of a campaign aimed at providing some competition to the banking sector, which controls 92% of the mortgage market and is heavily dominated by the major banks.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
However, talk of being a fifth pillar in the mortgage lending space may be a little premature.
According to the latest APRA banking figures for September, the four major banks dwarf the rest of the market.
The Commonwealth Bank remains the biggest mortgage lender by some margin with a$308 billion loan book, followed by Westpac ($294 billion home loan book), NAB ($187 billion) and ANZ ($171 billion).
Many would argue that there already is a fifth pillar in banking, that being ING Direct, a subsidiary of the Dutch banking giant ING, which has a loan book of $37 billion and has a reputation for sharply priced online mortgage and savings products.
While Yellow Brick Road has impressively more than doubled its mortgage lending over the past year according to its 2012 annual report, ita loan book currently stands at just $855 million.
This is small change when compared with the major banks and also dwarfed by the $18 billion of loans under management that Wizard Home loans achieved. The defunct mortgage lender made Bouris his fortune – he sold Wizard to GE Money for around $500 million in 2004.
Macquarie does present Yellow Brick Roads with a strong financial services partner, with over $340 billion in assets on its balance sheet as well as strong track record as a mortgage funder. Macquarie provided non-banks with wholesale funds prior to the GFC – raising over $40 billion through securitisation.
As Stephen Bartholomeusz wrote yesterday in Business Spectator, Macquarie has an “exceptionally competitive source of funding for a large-scale entry into retail banking”.
And of course, Bouris himself will be the ringmaster, using his media connections and personality to promote Yellow Brick Road offerings.
“Cheap funding, low distribution costs and Bouris’ ability to market the brand represent a potentially potent competitive combination in a home loan market that is low-growth and where the margins have been compressed by the funding cost pressures,” says Bartholomeusz
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Yellow Brick Road confirms Macquarie Bank funding deal to challenge major bank mortgage dominance

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Borrowers looking to take a punt on future cash rate decisions by the RBA should listen to ANZ, according to CommSec chief economist Craig James.
ANZ was the only major bank to correctly tip the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged yesterday at 3.25% with Westpac, Commonwealth Bank and NAB all forecasting a rate cut.
James tweeted:
<div class="stream-item-header" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; background-color: #f5f5f5;"><a class="account-group js-account-group js-action-profile js-user-profile-link js-nav" href="https://twitter.com/craigjamesOZ" data-user-id="242979193" style="color: #999999; text-decoration: none;"> Craig James ?<s style="text-decoration: none; color: #bbbbbb;">@</s>craigjamesOZ</a></div>
Best interest rate forecaster this year: ANZ. I've looked at the 10 meetings. Most economists got it right on 7 of 10 meetings.
<div class="stream-item-footer" style="font-size: 12px; padding-top: 1px; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; background-color: #f5f5f5;">
<div class="context"></div>
<a class="details with-icn js-details" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://twitter.com/craigjamesOZ/status/265923044139225088" style="color: #999999; text-decoration: none; font-size: 12px; display: inline-block; margin-right: 2px;">Expand</a> 
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<li class="action-fav-container" style="display: inline;"><a class="with-icn js-toggle-fav" href="https://twitter.com/craigjamesOZ" style="color: #0084b4; text-decoration: none; font-size: 12px; margin-left: 8px;"><i class="sm-fav" style="display: inline-block; zoom: 1; vertical-align: text-top; background-image: url(https://si0.twimg.com/a/1351884853/t1/img/twitter_web_sprite_icons.png); height: 13px; background-color: #0084b4; width: 10px; margin-right: 1px; background-position: -40px -220px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat;">  Star</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
The chief economist at ANZ is Warren Hogan.
The other economists (polled by Bloomberg last week) that correctly tipped the cash rate to remain on hold yesterday were from Barclays Capital, Citi, Goldman Sachs, J.P Morgan, Merrill Lynch and TD Securities.
 
 
 
 
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ANZ best at forecasting rate calls: Tweet of the day

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The aspirations of Mark Bouris to take on the major banks once again appear to be gathering steam with Macquarie Group tipped to provide wholesale mortgage funding to his Yellow Brick Road wealth management franchise business.
Yellow Brick Road has placed its shares in a trading halt today ahead of an announcement on Friday (November 9) in relation to speculation about "potential distribution deal with a major Australian Financial Institution".
Bouris has hinted at his desire to not only take on the major banks – as he did during the late 1990s and early 2000s through Wizard Home Loans – but also to obtain a banking license for Yellow Brick Road.
He hired former NAB home loans executive Matt Lawler as<a href="/news"> Yellow Brick Road CEO </a>last year.
A report in The Age, quoting “sources close to the deal” said Macquarie-funded home loans sold via Yellow Brick Road would seek to undercut the major banks by a full percentage point.
Bouris made his money from his Wizard mortgage broking business, which he eventually sold to GE Money for about $500 million in 2004.
He founded Yellow Brick in 2007 to sell investment services in former Wizard Branches and now has more than 140 branches across the country.
Aussie Home Loans bought the Wizard brand and franchise network from GE Money in December 2008, changing the stores to the John Symond brand.
Macquarie provides home loans through its banking and financial services group with APRA September banking figures showing that Macquarie has a mortgage book of around $4.5 billion, ranking it as the 14th biggest bank lender and a long way behind the smallest of the big four banks, ANZ, which has a mortgage book of $170 billion.
It also offers a portfolio of mortgage products aimed at both investors and first-home buyers.
Prior to the GFC Macquarie provided wholesale mortgage funding through its PUMA securitisation program but stopped originating new mortgages in March 2008 when the GFC made it significantly harder to access wholesale funding at competitive rates. It has since returned to the securitisation market.
Macquarie also has a play in the mortgage distribution space, facilitating the creation of aggregator Vow Financial through the merger of a number mid-tier mortgage broking businesses and maintains a minority holding in this venture.
In its most recent half-year results Macquarie notes that its “mortgages business continued to grow through targeted distribution and quality products”.
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Macquarie Group set to fund Yellow Brick Road home loan assault on major banks 

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The decision by the RBA to leave the cash rate on hold at 3.25% on Melbourne Cup Day took many economists, punters and borrowers by surprise.
Three out of four of the major banks had tipped the cash rate to fall to 3% with only ANZ making the correct prediction.
Westpac chief economist Bill Evans called yesterday’s post-decision statement by RBA governor Glenn Stevens “perplexing” noting that “comments on the domestic economy seem to be straining to identify good news”.
“Some signs of ongoing growth in consumption were identified; some indications of a prospective improvement in investment in dwellings were also noted while the housing market was described as "has strengthened" and business credit had increased. All these signs are correct but the improvement is tepid and should be further boosted with lower rates,” says Evans.
Despite the official borrowing rate remaining unchanged, borrowers can still find very low fixed and variable offerings.
The following results are based on advertised mortgage rates listed by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ratecity.com.au/">ratecity.com.au</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://mozo.com.au/">Mozo.com.au</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.infochoice.com.au/">infochoice.com.au</a> as of November 7:
Lowest variable rate offerings:
<table width="470" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="1"><tbody>
<tr>
<td width="134" valign="top">
Provider
</td>
<td width="124" valign="top">
Loan name
</td>
<td width="97" valign="top">
Rate
</td>
<td width="116" valign="top">
Comparison rate*
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="134" valign="top">
Loans.com.au
</td>
<td width="124" valign="top">
Dream Catcher blackboard special
</td>
<td width="97" valign="top">
5.42%
</td>
<td width="116" valign="top">
5.44%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="134" valign="top">
My Mortgage Freedom
</td>
<td width="124" valign="top">
Low rate (LVR up to 75%)
</td>
<td width="97" valign="top">
5.43%
</td>
<td width="116" valign="top">
5.74%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="134" valign="top">
UBank
</td>
<td width="124" valign="top">
UHomeLoan refinance only
</td>
<td width="97" valign="top">
5.47%
</td>
<td width="116" valign="top">
5.47%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Lowest one-year fixed-rate offerings
<table width="470" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="1"><tbody>
<tr>
<td width="137" valign="top">
Provider
</td>
<td width="123" valign="top">
Loan name
</td>
<td width="95" valign="top">
Rate
</td>
<td width="114" valign="top">
Comparison rate*
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="137" valign="top">
Community First Credit Union
</td>
<td width="123" valign="top">
12 month fixed home loan
</td>
<td width="95" valign="top">
4.99%
</td>
<td width="114" valign="top">
6.46%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="137" valign="top">
Greater Building Society
</td>
<td width="123" valign="top">
Ultimate Home Loan Package Standard Fixed one year 
</td>
<td width="95" valign="top">
4.99%
</td>
<td width="114" valign="top">
6.01%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="137" valign="top">
My Mortgage Freedom
</td>
<td width="123" valign="top">
Fixed rate (LVR &lt;75)
</td>
<td width="95" valign="top">
4.99%
</td>
<td width="114" valign="top">
5.81%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Lowest three-year fixed-rate offerings
<table width="470" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="1"><tbody>
<tr>
<td width="133" valign="top">
Provider
</td>
<td width="133" valign="top">
Loan name
</td>
<td width="97" valign="top">
Rate
</td>
<td width="108" valign="top">
Comparison rate*
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="133" valign="top">
Pacific Mortgage Corporation
</td>
<td width="133" valign="top">
PMG Fixed (three years)
</td>
<td width="97" valign="top">
5.19%
</td>
<td width="108" valign="top">
5.43%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="133" valign="top">
Resi
</td>
<td width="133" valign="top">
Flexi Fix Plus 75
</td>
<td width="97" valign="top">
5.29%
</td>
<td width="108" valign="top">
5.99%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="133" valign="top">
CUA
</td>
<td width="133" valign="top">
Residential fixed three years
</td>
<td width="97" valign="top">
5.30%
</td>
<td width="108" valign="top">
5.9%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
*A comparison rate includes both the interest rate and the fees and charges relating to a loan, combined into a single percentage figure.
For information on refinancing, watch our free webinar <a target="_blank" href="/news">Refinancing and the Interest Rates Riddle</a>
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A guide to the lowest rate home loan offerings fixed and variable as of October 30 as RBA leaves cash rate at 3.25% 

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The two consecutive monthly rises in building approvals in August and September appears to have been a key factor in the RBA’s decision to keep the cash rate on hold at 3.25% on Melbourne Cup Day.
Building approval figures are seen as a forward indicator of future construction activity.
Today's monetary policy decision statement from RBA governor Glenn Stevens notes that there have been “some signs of ongoing growth [in the economy] though a return to very strong growth in consumption is unlikely.
Stevens goes on to say in the next sentence that while "investment in dwellings has been subdued for some time, over recent months there have been some indications of a prospective improvement".
In contrast, he says “non-residential building investment has remained weak”.
ABS data shows that the number of dwellings approved for construction rose 7.8% to 13,338 in September 2012 in seasonally adjusted terms following a 6.4% rise in August.
These two increases partially reversed a 21.2% decline in dwelling approvals in July.
Over the year to September, approvals for houses are down 1.8%.
However the peak residential building industry body, the Housing Industry Association, said the RBA had got its cash rate call wrong.
“Signs of a new home building recovery are tentative and cracks are already appearing, renovations activity is falling, housing prices are benign, and wider inflationary pressures are in check. Against this backdrop it is disappointing that rates were left on hold today,” says HIA chief economist, Dr Harley Dale.
“Today’s lack of action is inconsistent with the indication that was conveyed to households and businesses by a renewed easing of interest rates in October, which followed a mid-year period of steady rates and mixed messages,” says Dale.
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