The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
</section>
</section>

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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The minutes from the RBA’s November Board meeting, at which it left the cash rate at 2%, do not reveal substantial additional detail on the Bank’s outlook. 
The meeting predated the release of the strong October labour force numbers, which showed the unemployment rate falling nearly 0.3ppts to 5.9%, the lowest reading since April 2014. These numbers are broadly in line with the RBA’s relatively upbeat observations about labour market developments and help explain (post-script) why the Board chose not to implement a November rate cut, despite markets pricing a 50% probability just prior to the meeting. The Bank noted in the statement after the meeting and in the minutes that “prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little over recent months”. 
But the Bank also noted that spare capacity in the economy would persist for some time and remains quite uncertain about its consumption forecasts, noting “households' decisions about consumption and saving continued to represent an important source of uncertainty for the forecasts”. The Bank is expecting above-average consumption growth at some point, but we do not share that view. At 55% of the economy, this is a large proportion of expenditure and so any uncertainty could be influential to the Bank’s thinking. 
In isolation, the labour force report makes our expectation of a February rate cut more difficult to achieve. But of course the data cannot be read in isolation and the notoriously volatile labour force figures could paint quite a different picture over the next two months. Also, there is a possibility of further rises in lending rates from the banks to offset the regulatory changes that have raised minimum capital requirements. This would force an unwelcome – although probably small – tightening of financial conditions. The RBA’s November Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) (released after the Board meeting, but before the strong labour force report) also showed that the RBA lowered its growth and inflation forecasts, and these changes also support our view that the outlook is precarious and lower rates will be necessary in 2016. 
Consistent with the post-meeting statement, the minutes said the “inflation outlook may afford some scope for further easing of monetary policy”. While acknowledging that inflation was lower than earlier expected, “inflation was forecast to be consistent with the target over the next one to two years”. The RBA said that while tight competition was limiting the higher price of imports being passed on to final consumer prices, some increase in tradable prices is expected in coming years. 
The Bank noted that although there would be further growth in dwelling investment, the pace of house price growth in Sydney and Melbourne “had moderated” and “supervisory measures were helping to contain risks”. On the international front, the slowing in growth in Asia “was likely to be more persistent than expected” and “Australia's trading partners was expected to be slightly below its decade average over the period ahead”. These comments are consistent with the SoMP. 
Bottom line, we think the RBA will be looking for a clearer picture before making any decisions. We see a very low likelihood of a move at the next RBA Board meeting on 1 December. This is especially the case with the crucial US central bank policy meeting on 16-17 December, two Australian labour force reports due before February, and the December quarter CPI due on 27 January. 
We maintain our view that the RBA will cut rates in the first half of next year. With the stimulus from housing and the lower AUD likely to fade next year, and the inflation outlook providing no impediment to lower rates, we think the cash rate will be cut twice by 25bps, most likely in February and May. 
Cherelle Murphy is co-head of Australian Economics, ANZ Research and can be contacted <a href="https://bluenotes.anz.com/authors/our-economists/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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RBA's uncertainty on strong consumption creeps in: ANZ Research

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ING DIRECT will increase interest rates by 0.18% p.a. across its variable owner occupier and investor residential loan portfolio, effective 15 January 2016. 
As at 15 January 2016, the variable interest rate on the Orange Advantage offset home loan for residential owner occupier borrowers will be 5.02% p.a. (5.21% p.a. comparison rate).
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ING DIRECT to increase variable home loan rates

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GUEST OBSERVER
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Today’s super‑sized 58.6k rise in jobs was well above market expectations which were centred on a rise of 15k (CBA f/c +20k). To keep it in perspective, there is a pattern that the last few episodes of monthly falls in jobs have been followed by very large rises. It is likely that the next few monthly outcomes are lowish and will bring the three month average back to 17k.
Full‑time jobs growth of 40k in October means that annual growth is 159k or 2%. Part‑time jobs rose by 18.6k to be 104k, or 2.9%, higher over the past year.
The unemployment rate fell to 5.9%, the lowest since May, from 6.2%. We expect to see the unemployment rate oscillate around the 6% level over the next 6 months.
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Forward indicators of the jobs market, such as job ads and employer intentions, indicate that monthly average jobs growth should be in the 17 to 20k range, or 200k annually. It implies that the national unemployment rate will stay around the 6% level, depending on the wobbles in the participation rate.
Over the past 3 years around 277k extra jobs have been added to the workforce, with about two thirds of those in part‑time positions. The new jobs are a net outcome of significantly higher job gains netted off against large job losses. The chart on the next page shows the restructuring across sectors.
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The extra jobs over the past 3 years are in health, construction, retail, education and transport. They can be generally grouped as services sector positions, which also tend to have a greater part‑time component. The lower AUD will hasten the jobs growth in sectors like tourism, accommodation and education over the coming year. It will more than offset the losses in the mining and related sectors.
There is also a clear economic growth transition going on in the States.  VIC and NSW recorded the largest increase in jobs growth (+26.1K and +18.7K respectively). 
The NSW unemployment rate, at 5.5% is now sitting at the lowest level across the States. It is followed closely by VIC at 5.6%. The residential construction boom, focussed in these two States, is one of the key drivers of employment growth.  The mining states also recorded good outcomes in October with QLD up 12.1K and WA up 14.8K.  SA jobs rose by 5.6K and jobs fell by 1.4K in TAS.
The next major economic release is the September quarter Capex which will be examined to see if there is any small improvement in the outlook for non‑mining investment. Next week’s RBA minutes are likely to show that the Board discussed a rate cut at the November meeting which could weaken the AUD.
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Michael Workman is senior economist, <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au/corporate/research?ei=mv_research" target="_blank">Commonwealth Bank</a>.
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Who needs a rate cut? CBA's Michael Workman

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GUEST OBSERVER
It is hard to believe that almost 60,000 jobs were created in one month with 40,000 of these jobs in full-time positions. 
Still, economic momentum continues to pick up, underpinned by strong home building. Home building approvals are at record highs together with tourist arrivals and car sales. 
But in the past job gains of this magnitude are generally followed by downward corrections in the following month.
While the monthly data bobs around from month to month, it’s important to note that 197,500 jobs were created over the past year – the biggest annual job gain recorded in 4½ years. Employment has only fallen three times in the past year and there have been some strong job gains in this period with six monthly increases of greater than 30,000 jobs. So the October figures are hardly an outlier.   
Clearly the Reserve Bank got the call right by leaving interest rates unchanged earlier this month, identifying an improvement in the economy. And clearly there won’t be another rate cut in 2015.
It is possible that the last rate cut has occurred in this cycle. 
CommSec still expects rates to remain on hold for the foreseeable future.
We would put down the strong lift in employment to improved confidence levels, low interest rates, stimulus to the small business sector and strong home building. 
Unemployment in NSW has hit 5.5%– which in the past has been identified as the “natural” jobless rate – a rate that could spark a lift in wages should unemployment fall further towards 5% and below.
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx">CommSec</a>.
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Jobs data shows RBA was right to leave cash rate: CommSec's Craig James

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<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
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<div class="column">Housing finance commitments fell in September, driven by a sharp drop in investor lending. </div>
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While today’s report also showed an increase in upgrader lending, the impact of the changes to investor lending standards in recent months is clearly net negative for housing market sales activity and housing construction. Slower auction market sales, weaker house price growth and higher mortgage rates in recent weeks point to a soft housing market outlook in 2016.
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 Investor finance fell a sharp 8.5% m/m in September, and has now fallen for five consecutive months (Figure 1). APRA will be satisfied that their measures are indeed having the desired effect of slowing annual investor credit growth down towards sub-10%. However, the sharp loss in housing market momentum in recent months presents a soft outlook, not just for house price growth and mortgage lending, but also for the contribution to economic growth from housing. 
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<div class="column">Slower price growth and higher mortgage rates in recent weeks are expected to weigh on planned housing construction (Figure 1) and provide less of a boost to consumer confidence and retail spending.</div>
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 In contrast to weaker investor finance, owner-occupier mortgage lending increased 1.7% m/m (excluding refinance) in September. While growth in owner-occupier lending has offset weaker investor finance in recent months, today’s net negative impact is likely to continue in the coming months as the combined impact of slower house price growth, the recent increases in mortgage lending rates and weak household income growth provide a headwind to owner-occupier sales. 
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David Cannington is senior economist, ANZ Research and can be contacted <a href="https://www.anz.com/corporate/research/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Australian mortgage lending confirms soft housing market outlook: ANZ Research

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GUEST OBSERVER
Inflation-targeting central banks usually benefit from what some economists have labelled a “divine coincidence”.
This is when the best policy response to inflation also turns out to be the best response to unemployment. A central bank should raise its policy rate when inflation is high and the unemployment rate is low — and vice versa. All else equal, the effect of such a policy response is that inflation and unemployment will return to their long-run levels.
An absence of a trade-off in achieving an inflation target and stabilising unemployment makes the lives of central bankers relatively easy — most of the time. But, alas, this divine coincidence doesn’t always hold.
The stagflating ‘70s
In the 1970s, central bankers faced a dilemma due to massive spikes in oil prices that resulted in less-than-divine sounding “stagflation” - that is, simultaneously high inflation and unemployment. If central banks pushed interest rates high enough to put a lid on inflation, they would increase unemployment further. But if they tried to hold interest rates down, they risked inflation spiralling out of control.
Most economists believe that central banks were too timid in the 1970sand inflation targeting was developed in the late 1980s and early 1990s as a way to make sure central bankers would keep their eye on the inflation ball whenever the divine coincidence failed again.
A surprising downside to the divine coincidence
The divine coincidence hasn’t really failed since the 1970s. For example, the recent global financial crisis led to lower inflation and higher unemployment in most countries. In this case, central bankers faced no dilemma in pushing interest rates downwards. Their only dilemma was what to do after their policy rates hit the zero lower bound.
But there is a surprising downside to the divine coincidence holding over the past quarter century. It seems to have lulled most everyone into thinking central bankers are miracle workers who can hit two targets with one arrow.
Worse yet, if central bankers can hit two targets, why not ask for more? Shouldn’t they also keep house prices under control? Stock prices? The exchange rate? Bank lending rates?
This idea of targeting bank lending rates has received much attention over the past few weeks in Australia, where the major banks have raised their mortgage rates, supposedly to cover increased costs related to changing capital requirements from Basel III.
Following this increase in bank lending rates, there were public calls for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut its policy rate to help bring mortgage rates back down. The RBA wisely chose not to listen.
But it is notable how easily the (implicit) idea that the RBA should target mortgage rate spreads could become such a focus of the public discussion surrounding monetary policy.
What’s the problem?
Public officials should want to cool an overheating housing market. They should want to minimise anti-competitive practices in the banking industry. And surely they should want a low and stable rate of inflation.
But they just can’t use one instrument - that is, the policy rate — to achieve all of these wonderful outcomes at the same time.
In the absence of more widespread divine coincidences, different desired outcomes will always require different policy instruments. And most practical tools to achieve outcomes other than just low and stable inflation have big distributional consequences.
For example, if policymakers really want to prevent an overheated housing market, they need to design tax and planning policies that influence demand and supply of housing. These have very different effects on homeowners and renters and are clearly more the domain of governments (national and local), rather than a central bank.
Likewise, if policymakers really want to make the banking system more competitive, they should do so via the regulatory environment. To be sure, any policy changes along these lines ought to involve consultation with the central bank given that there is a likely trade-off between a more competitive banking system and greater systemic risks, at least if the recent experience of the global financial crisis is any indication.
But the point is that such policy should not be conducted by a central bank alone. And it definitely shouldn’t be done by adjustments to the policy rate. This would be a misguided “duct tape” solution to a more serious architectural flaw.
Who is steering the ship?
Inflation targeting central bankers need to focus on their main objective of stabilising inflation and not be sidetracked into trying to correct all other macroeconomic and financial problems. They are not miracle workers — although they have generally delivered on their inflation targets.
To the extent the divine coincidence has held, inflation targeting central bankers have been lucky enough to also help stabilise unemployment. But they should not be expected to offset the effects of an uncompetitive banking system — or ill-conceived fiscal policy, for that matter. Their objective of low and stable inflation should always guide their decisions, not a response to the decisions of others with different objectives.
We should expect central banks to be focused on the inflation horizon, not to be divine.
 
 
James Morley is professor of economics and Associate Dean (Research), UNSW Australia and author for The Conversation.
He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-morley-9918" target="_blank">here</a>.
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RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is a not a miracle worker

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GUET OBSERVER
In its November Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP), the Reserve Bank maintained its key forecast that growth in the economy would be 3.00% in the year to December 2016.
We believe this is 0.25% above where the Bank currently estimates trend growth. Therefore, at this stage, the Bank expects there will be no need to cut rates further in 2016. If it had for instance decided to cut rates in November, or was signalling an intention to cut at the December board meeting, it is likely to have forecast growth in 2016 at 2.50% – 0.25% below trend.
The growth forecast for the year to December 2015 has been lowered to 2.25% from 2.50% in the August SoMP. This largely reflects the soft 0.2% of Q2, but also indicates that the Bank is expecting growth in the final two quarters of 2015 to average around 0.60% (slightly below trend, unchanged from the August view). It has lowered its forecast for growth to the year ending December 2017, from 3.75% to 3.50%. Importantly, that is not a downgrade on the outlook for domestic demand, but simply reflects a revision to the expected contribution to net exports from LNG.
Overall, the Bank’s growth forecasts are little changed since the August SoMP.
There were also changes to the inflation outlook. Underlying inflation to December 2015 has been lowered from 2.50% to 2.00%. With 1.30% coming in the first half of 2015, and the surprisingly low 0.3% read of the September quarter, the implied assumption is for another low number in the December quarter – around 0.40–0.50%.
Underlying inflation through the year ended June 2016 is also forecast at 2.00%, indicating an expectation that these measures will resume a “normal pace” of around 0.60% per quarter in the first half of 2016. Consistent with that view, underlying inflation is expected to print 2.50% in the year to December 2016 – back to the middle of the target range. That forecast is maintained for the year to December 2017.
The discussion around inflation highlights that the lagged effect of the fall in the Australian dollar is expected to add around 0.50% to underlying inflation in both 2016 and 2017. That means the drag on inflation from domestic factors, particularly weak wages growth, is expected to be sustained in 2016 and 2017.
Assumptions
In February this year, the Bank adopted a new assumption around the interest rates being used to drive their forecasts. That assumption was to move away from “rates unchanged” to “rates to move broadly in line with market pricing”, although that is qualified with “does not represent a commitment by the Board to any particular path or policy”.
In August for instance, market pricing implied a 40% probability of a rate cut by November, rising to a 60% probability of a cut by February. Today’s market pricing is more aggressive, with a 75% probability of a cut by February, and a 100% probability of a cut by May. Clearly the Bank is in an awkward position and probably values stability in communications rather than changing its model unexpectedly.
With growth forecast at 3.00% next year, we expect that, even with a no rate change forecast, the growth forecast in 2016 would still have been at or above trend, and therefore this assumption does not imply that the rate cut is necessary to achieve at or above trend growth.
It is also important that the assumptions around bank interest rates are noted. The assumption here is that banks will increase interest rates on variable rate mortgages by up to 20bps. This assumption implies that no further increases by the banks are considered likely.
Other assumptions around the AUD and oil prices are broadly the same as in the August SoMP. The AUD is forecast to remains steady at USD0.72 (USD0.74 in August). And the oil price at USD52 per barrel, compared to USD53 per barrel in August.
Commentary
Because the Bank does not consistently provide forecasts for the unemployment rate, the commentary around the labour market is always important. In that regard, the Bank notes “employment growth is expected to be a bit stronger than had been forecast earlier”. Leading indicators around the business surveys, job advertisements and vacancies are pointing to an uptrend in employment. On the other hand, there is no marked upgrading of the outlook for the unemployment rate. In August, the Bank expected it to remain steady and to decline gradually in 2016 H2 and 2017. However, this lift in employment growth is expected to be offset by a more than expected increase in labour supply, due to the increase in the participation rate – overall, a marginally more positive assessment of the labour market since August, and significantly more positive than seen in May, when the Bank expected that the unemployment rate would continue to rise.
The Household Sector
The key to the expected lift in growth between 2015 (2.25%) and 2016 (3.00%) is the view on household consumption. The Bank expects household consumption growth to be a bit above average in 2016 (that is broadly 3.00%+ compared to 2.00–2.50% in 2015). That is expected to be driven by the stronger employment growth and falls in the savings rate, although it is recognised that weak wages growth will continue to weigh on income growth. From our perspective, this is a key assumption. Evidence that
the household sector is not gaining momentum will be the key trigger for the bank to revise down its growth outlook.
Housing
Views on house prices remain cautious, with risks that excess demand could continue to pressure prices, particularly in Sydney. The forecasts also indicate that the Bank expects residential investment to add to growth in 2016 given the strong pipeline – a forecast that we do not share.
Business Investment
The Bank continues to forecast an overall fall in business investment, with the downturn in mining investment swamping improving non-mining investment. The commentary on non-mining investment is more upbeat than we have seen in recent SoMP’s. For example, in August, the Bank further revised down its forecasts for non-mining investment. Whereas, in this SoMP, it notes that “the preconditions for a pick-up in investment are in place”.
The Outlook
We continue to expect that rates will remain on hold over the course of 2016. The Bank’s forecasts in this statement are consistent with it expecting that to be the outcome as well. However, the fact that it is using a “rate cut profile” for its forecasts and appears to expect that the December quarter underlying inflation print will be a soft circa 0.40–0.50% signals that the risks to our outlook are to the downside.
The key appears to be an ongoing improvement in employment growth which will boost consumer confidence and lift the pace of household spending. Our forecasts for household spending and GDP growth are slightly more modest than indicated in the SoMP, but are still consistent with steady rates. Surprises for the Bank might always be a further substantial deterioration in the terms of trade, associated with a weaker than expected world environment which would threaten incomes, and the all important profile for household spending and employment.
The really key events in the lead up to the February Board meeting will be the Q3 national accounts, printing on December 2, and the December quarter inflation report printing on January 27. Further, any major shocks to the global economy which significantly lower our terms of trade will also be very important.
As discussed however, the Bank will need to assess all of these factors as pointing to a downward revision to growth in 2016, from its current 3.00% to a below trend 2.50%, to trigger lower rates.
Bill Evans is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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RBA Statement on Monetary Policy consistent with rates on hold in 2016: Westpac's Bill Evans

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The graphs summarise macroeconomic and financial market trends in Australia as viewed by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The charts cover Household Saving Ratio, Private Residential Building Approvals (below), Household Finances, Household Wealth and Liabilities, Housing Prices and Housing Loan Approvals. <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/household-sector" target="_blank">Click here</a> to view them all.
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Six charts that shape RBA rate thinking: November chart pack

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GUEST OBSERVER
In case there was some lingering uncertainty, the Reserve Bank Governor had made it clear that if rates were to move anywhere in the next six months it would be down, not up.
The Reserve Bank Governor has gone to some length to explain the thinking about recent increases in bank home loan rates and the impact on monetary policy. And the conclusion was that the higher bank loan rates won’t have a big impact on the broader economy, and thus not requiring a response from the Reserve Bank in terms of cutting interest rates.
The speech by the Reserve Bank Governor was entitled the “Path to Prosperity”. And there were key messages. There needs to be improvements in infrastructure. And on this point the Governor said “there are some encouraging developments.” Glenn Stevens also stressed the importance of productivity enhancements: “with the terms of trade-driven improvements now behind us – and at least partly reversing – productivity is the main game.” Stevens also noted the importance of budget repair: “The need for medium-term budget repair also remains.”
Car sales continue to soar to record levels, with SUVs the major catalyst. Record vehicle sales combined with yesterday’s data showing above-average growth of retail spending, confirms the Reserve Bank upbeat view on the economy. The Reserve Bank certainly has no need to act on the easing bias by cutting interest rates.
What do the figures show?
Reserve Bank Governor Speech
Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens delivered a speech “The Path to Prosperity”
On interest rates: “were a change to monetary policy to be required in the near term, it would almost certainly be an easing, not a tightening.”
On higher mortgage rates announced by banks: “my preliminary assessment is that the macroeconomic effect of these actions in themselves may not be large. It is one part of a much bigger and evolving landscape. Nonetheless, the Reserve Bank Board will keep this matter, and that broader landscape, under careful review.” 
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<div class="column">Impact of higher mortgage rates on sentiment: “Could the ‘shock’ value of the rises in mortgage rates itself lead to a significant change in that trend, gentle as it is, of improvement? While such an outcome is perhaps conceivable, given the starting point and all the above considerations, it seems to me a bit of a leap to draw that conclusion.”</div>
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Quantifying impact of bank home rate changes: “Measuring across the total loan book, the recent actions are the equivalent of roughly half of one 25 basis point monetary policy change. They take back perhaps a quarter of the extent of interest rate easing seen since the start of this year, and a smaller proportion of the total easing in lending costs seen over the past two years.”
Reserve Bank distances itself from bank rate hikes: “Let me be clear that in making these comments I am not offering an endorsement of the banks' actions. Nor should an assumption that shareholder returns must not decline as a result of the effects of supervisory measures, or any other factor, simply be accepted without question. The ‘right’ rate of return for bank shareholders is, as others have observed, an open question. It is not a constant of the universe.”
On the Federal Budget: “The need for medium-term budget repair also remains. Here also progress has been made, and the budget deficit at present still compares favourably with what we see in many other countries. But my sense is that a fair bit of the necessary national conversation about how we pay for all the things we have voted for lies ahead. This doesn't imply a need for radical immediate action, but I suspect it does mean an unusually long period of tight budget discipline on recurrent spending is likely to be required.”
New vehicle sales
According to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI), Australian new motor vehicle sales totalled 94,321 in October, up 3.4% over the year. In the year to October 2015 a record 1,146,194 new vehicles were sold.
Passenger vehicles in October were down 5.3% on a year earlier with heavy commercial vehicles down by 8.3% and light commercial vehicles were down by 1.9%. Sales of sports utility vehicles (SUVs) were up by 20.5% (small SUVs up 37%).
In the year to October, SUVs represented 43.5% of combined passenger car and SUV sales. SUVs accounted for a record 34.8% of all vehicle sales in the year to October.
What is the importance of the economic data?
The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries releases estimates of car sales on the third business day of the month. The figures highlight the strength of consumer spending as well as conditions facing auto &amp; components companies. 
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Reserve Bank has made it clear that monetary policy has an “easing bias” meaning that if rates were to change, it would be down. But with the Reserve Bank seemingly more positive on economic prospects, there are no signs that the Reserve Bank will draw on the insurance policy to actually lower rates. 
CommSec expects the Reserve Bank to remain on the interest rate sidelines over the coming year.
The continued strength of new car sales highlights the underlying strength of consumer spending. It is not out of the question that more SUVs will be sold in coming years than passenger cars.
 
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<div class="column">Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</div>
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Reserve Bank gives view on rates: Craig James

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Fifteen lenders have announced rate increases to owner-occupied variable home loans according to comparison website finder.com.au, with the biggest increase being 0.20% by Westpac, Macquarie Bank, Citibank and ME Bank.
The Bank of Queensland and CUA are the latest to announce home loan increases, according to finder.com.au consumer advocate Bessie Hassan.
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She said 15 lenders monitored by finder.com.au have so far announced variable rate owner-occupier home loan increases of up to 0.20 percentage points, with one lender’s move already reportedly effective (Citibank).
“So far, the biggest increase was 0.20 percentage points by four lenders: Westpac, Macquarie Bank, Citibank and ME Bank, while the average rise was 0.17 percentage points. This will add an extra $33 per month to a $300,000 mortgage, as well as putting more pressure on many households who are preparing for the most expensive time of year at Christmas.," she said.
“Bank of Queensland and CUA were the latest lenders to announce variable rate increases to its owner-occupied home loans yesterday (November 4, 2015), with their standard variable home loan rates set to rise by 0.18 and 0.13 percentage points respectively. CUA also announced a 0.14 percentage point drop to one of its home loan products while raising eight others.
“It’s clear that the Reserve Bank is having less of an impact on interest rate movements so there’s no point for borrowers to wait for a cash rate cut and expect lenders to follow. However, the silver lining is that there are hundreds of home loans out there and many smaller lenders are offering very competitive deals. For instance, the cheapest variable rate home loan is 3.79% by Mortgage House (12-month discounted rate). Now is the time to compare home loans, ask your lender for a discount or switch to a better deal before the rate hikes take effect.”
<a href="/images/2015/11/5/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-05%20at%2010.16.40%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/11/5/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-05%20at%2010.16.40%20AM.png" alt="">
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