IN BRIEF

<ul>
	<li>
	Just three double-storey Sky Homes sit at the top of The Waterline, each with its own private marina berth and rooftop terrace.
	</li>
	<li>
	Construction on The Waterline is complete, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.
	</li>
	<li>
	Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and are priced from $3.65 million.
	</li>
</ul>

<hr />
Lewis Land has opened the first completed sky home for inspection at Harbour Shores, giving buyers their first opportunity to step inside one of just three double-storey residences crowning The Waterline.

Each sky home comes with its own private marina berth, rooftop terrace and Broadwater views, combining the scale of a larger home with direct access to the boating lifestyle that underpins the wider <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366708]

Lewis Land Head of Development Michael Long said the inclusion of a berth with every Sky Home had become increasingly valuable as marina access across the Gold Coast tightened.

“Marina berths are becoming increasingly difficult to secure across the Gold Coast, so including one with every Sky Home makes this a genuinely rare offering,” Long said.

“The private 70-berth marina will accommodate boats up to 12 metres in length and is positioned just 2.5 kilometres from the Broadwater, placing the open ocean only 15 minutes away.

“Being able to step out of your home onto your boat is a rare luxury, and it’s something residents here can look forward to when it opens later this year.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366709]

The display opening comes as construction completes on The Waterline, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.

The three Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and each feature three bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive kitchens with butler's pantries and large balconies taking in the Broadwater outlook.

Each residence also has three secure basement car spaces and additional storage.

“This is the first opportunity the Gold Coast has had to step into Harbour Shores and see, touch and feel what we’re bringing to life here,” Long said.

“There are only three Sky Homes within The Waterline, ranging in size from 282sqm to 367sqm, with each residence featuring three large bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive custom-built kitchens with butler’s pantry, and large balconies capturing Broadwater views.”

<img alt="Harbour Shores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bab65e10-4fab-45e1-92d8-fc56e2ab98ff" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%202.00.16%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=XT8q76LsPkw3cYTsvN3JfFDaPLud90PN" />

Residents of The Waterline will have access to a private pool, along with Harbour Shores' wider collection of amenity including a lagoon pool, social clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga facilities and sauna.

Lewis Land partnered with Studio Collective to furnish the completed display, with the interiors designed to demonstrate how the residences could function as permanent homes rather than simply as show apartments.

Studio Collective Director Melissa Park said the surrounding waterways informed the interiors, but in a more restrained way than a traditional coastal scheme.

“We drew inspiration from the canals and coastal surrounds, but our approach was to interpret that subtly through layered materials and a grounded palette of earthy tones, rather than literal coastal references,” Park said.

“We introduced hero moments of green and teal to reference the surrounding waterways, while mirrored elements help reflect natural light.

“The result is a residence that feels elevated yet comfortable, somewhere buyers can genuinely imagine themselves living, entertaining and unwinding.”

Sky Homes are priced from $3.65 million.

Lewis Land is also offering private marina berths with The Residences, its limited collection of three and four-bedroom villas positioned directly along the Harbour Shores waterfront boardwalk.

Three-bedroom villas are priced from $2.99 million, while four-bedroom residences start from $3.19 million.

Harbour Shores is being marketed by Colliers International.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Joel Robinson

Lewis Land opens sky home display as The Waterline completes at Harbour Shores

St Vincent de Paul Society Housing Australia has filed plans for a major mixed-use housing precinct on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, adding another significant proposal to a pocket around North Sydn​ey Station that is quickly becoming one of the LGA's busiest development zones.

The State Significant Development Application covers a 5,990 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1-19-mackenzie-street-lavender-bay-nsw-2060">1-19 MacKenzie Street and 211 Blues Point Road in Lavender Bay</a>, immediately south of Nor​th Sydney Station and between the commercial core and the lower-rise Lavender Bay Heritage Conservation Area.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal would deliver a new residential tower comprising 88 build-to-sell apartments and 19 affordable apartments, alongside a separate co-living building with 57 rooms and a building manager's studio.

It would also see the significant restoration and upgrade of St Francis Xavier Catholic Church, the adaptive reuse of the former school building, new parish facilities, retail, a new public square and around 1,000 sqm of publicly accessible open space.

<img alt="Vinnies North Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d5dd7f87-a617-463e-b577-17541e01f0e9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.13%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4R8TsFN3P_LrrXO2HswTOIrx2blil8lh" />

The project is seeking a concurrent rezoning of the site to R4 High Density Residential and an increase in the maximum building height to allow a tower reaching RL120, or up to 20 storeys. The proposal was progressed through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The build-to-sell component will be weighted toward larger apartments, with just six one-bedroom apartments compared with 31 two-beds, 43 three-beds and eight four-bedroom residences.

The 19 affordable apartments will comprise two studios, 15 one-bedroom apartments and two two-bedroom apartments, taking the total apartment component to 107 residences before the 58 co-living rooms are included.

<img alt="Vnnies" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7d568ca5-cb90-4e18-96c6-d9795dba0c56" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GY2R5M9VtQh0EKy1vajaea19PSLOPuRD" />

Wardle's design for the Vinnies site has sought to negotiate that emerging high-rise context while retaining the lower-scale character of MacKenzie Street and the adjoining heritage conservation area.

The main building adopts a three-storey podium and tower arrangement, with the podium aligned to the ridgeline and front setback of St Francis Xavier Church.&nbsp;Wardle has designed the podium with colonnades, seating, recessed entries and active ground-floor frontages, with sandstone-toned precast concrete and face brick referencing the materiality of the existing church.

The tower then steps back eight metres to the south and six metres to the north before rising in a sculpted form comprising four interlocking quadrants. Wardle has also introduced rounded forms and chamfered corners to reduce the tower's perceived bulk and improve view sharing with neighbouring development sites.

Resident facilities and outdoor areas are planned at the separation between the podium and tower at Level 3, oriented toward Sydney Harbour and the CBD skyline.

The tower itself will feature a glass reinforced concrete facade, with recessed balconies and deep reveals used both to provide shading and privacy and frame views toward the harbour and city. The lower levels take a different architectural approach, using brick and sandstone-toned finishes intended to establish a stronger relationship with St Francis Xavier Church. The Church itself will be conserved and upgraded for its continued use, while the former school building will be adaptively reused as part of the co-living component.

<img alt="Lavendar Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2d4418ad-90aa-4d49-af93-c80b140aea80" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.09.47%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Kv4gzbsACaGvZSRuaqcfGC54jEJRXIDJ" />

&nbsp;

The proposal adds to an increasingly concentrated pipeline of residential development around Blue Street, MacKenzie Street and Lavender Bay.

Just west of the site, Central Element lodged plans earlier this year for one of the most significant residential developments proposed in Lavender Bay in recent years.

Central Element's SJB-designed scheme at 64-66 Lavender Street and 3-7 Middlemiss Street would deliver 163 apartments across two towers rising 23 and 32 storeys, replacing five existing apartment buildings containing 32 homes. The project also forms part of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-central-element-reveals-lavender-bay-apartment-plans?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener" target="_blank">First look: Central Element reveals Lavender Bay apartment plans</a>

Immediately around North Sy​dney Station, another two significant proposals have emerged at 5 and 15 Blue Street.

Zurich Australian Insurance Properties is seeking to adaptively reuse its longstanding commercial building at 5 Blue Street, directly above North Sydney Station, rather than demolishing the structure.

Its SSDA proposes converting the building into a 14-storey mixed-use development with 62 apartments and 86 co-living rooms, together with ground-floor retail and a major refurbishment of Blue Street Plaza. The application is currently at the Response to Submissions stage.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-zurich-targets-north-sydney-office-conversion-with-148-unit-proposal-above-metro-station">First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station</a>

&nbsp;

First look: Vinnies files for 20-storey Lavender Bay apartment tower as North Sydney housing pocket heats up

When the opportunity arose for South Australian developer Palumbo to return to Kent Town, where it had previously delivered East Park Apartments and the East 
Rundle Apartments, it wasn't one the longstanding developer-builder was going to pass up.

The decision was quickly vindicated, with more than 30 apartments sold within the first month of launching <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/royal-apartments-kent-town-2-8-north-terrace-kent-town-sa-5067">Royal Apartments</a> to the market.

The 206-apartment development, which will bring significant new supply to Adelaide's tightly held eastern city fringe, also gives <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/palumbo">Palumbo</a> the opportunity to bring new life to one of Kent Town's most recognisable watering holes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376073]

Royal Apartments incorporates the historic Royal Hotel, a venue Palumbo Managing Director Daniel Palumbo said has a longstanding connection with the local community.

"Everyone in the area has history with the Royal Hotel," Palumbo told Apartments.com.au.

"It was quite an active pub and social gathering place for locals. We want to bring it back to its former glory."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376072]

The wider development will comprise two residential towers alongside the restored hotel, sitting on North Terrace opposite the Adelaide Park Lands.

For Palumbo, the project also marks a return to familiar territory.

The developer completed East Park Apartments next door more than a decade ago and jumped at the opportunity to develop in Kent Town again when the Royal Hotel site became available.

"The opportunity emerged, and we moved to secure the site," Palumbo said.

"We were approached by the previous landowner, who said they had extensive commitments in Sydney and weren't in a position to deliver the project.

"We took over the site and within six months recut the design scheme to be more in keeping with the type of development we want to bring to Adelaide.

"Now we're on the market and those changes have really resonated with local buyers."

That has translated into a strong start to sales, with 33 apartments transacting in the project's first 35 days.

Palumbo said the early purchaser profile had been consistent with the group's traditional focus on owner-occupiers rather than investor-led apartment stock.

"Local owner-occupiers have always been our market," he said.

"There are always some investors, but we've never developed what would be called traditional development stock. Owner-occupiers are very much our market."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376068]

The buyer mix has been diverse so far, with downsizers and younger professionals both accounting for a significant portion of early sales.

South Australia's current stamp duty settings, which allow&nbsp;eligible homeowners in South Australia aged 60 savings of up to $103,830 on stamp duty when they downsize to a new property valued at up to $2 million,&nbsp;have helped encourage downsizer activity, while younger buyers in their late 20s and early 30s have been attracted to the opportunity to live immediately outside the CBD while still being able to walk into the city.



Location has been a major part of the proposition for both buyer cohorts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376075]

Royal Apartments sits on North Terrace directly opposite the Adelaide Park Lands, with residents able to walk through the parklands toward the East End, Rundle Street and Rundle Mall.

Apartments have been positioned to capture views across the parklands, Adelaide skyline, Botanic Gardens and Adelaide Hills.

Palumbo believes the scarcity of developable land along this section of the Park Lands makes the site particularly difficult to replicate.

"There's very few allotments on that side that can be developed," he said.

"If this location was in New York and you were sitting on Central Park, you'd be talking about a $60 million apartments."

Royal Apartments will offer a broad mix of residences, ranging from one-bedroom apartments through to four-bedroom sub-penthouses and penthouses.

Current listings include one-bedroom apartments from $680,000, while larger three and four-bedroom residences are priced around $2.5 million.

Residents will have access to a swimming pool, gym, barbecue and recreation areas, residents' lounge and dining space, and a communal deck.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376067]

The apartments will feature generous balconies, while secure parking, bicycle storage and storage cages will also be provided.

A porte-cochère-style arrival and drop-off area has also resonated with buyers, particularly those attracted to being able to walk into the CBD during the day while retaining secure vehicle access at home.

Palumbo is acting as developer, architect and builder on Royal Apartments, continuing the vertically integrated model it has used across its South Australian portfolio.

The group was also behind the $150 million Sofitel Adelaide, the 251-room five-star hotel and residential tower which opened in 2021.

Palumbo said Royal's launch had come at an interesting time for the broader Adelaide apartment market.

Buyer confidence had initially been impacted by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Budget and broader economic conditions, but Palumbo believes sentiment is beginning to improve against a backdrop of significant investment flowing into South Australia.

He pointed to increased activity across defence and resources, including Olympic Dam, as potential long-term drivers of the state's economy and housing market.

"Money is starting to flow into Adeliade, significant amounts as Adelaide bucks the trend of the rest of the country.," Palumbo said.

"There's a lot of activity in the economy over the next decade. I think more investment will come into this market."

Early works on Royal Apartments are expected to commence this year, with major construction activity and cranes anticipated on site from early next year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6109]

Palumbo's return to Kent Town strikes early chord with buyers

Go-to builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/graya">GRAYA</a> is continuing to bulk out its already impressive and diverse apartment portfolio across South East Queensland. Their latest milestone is securing development approval for Silk, its boutique riverfront apartment development in St Lucia.

The approval clears&nbsp;the way for the team to begin construction planning for the 22-residence project.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/silk-st-lucia-16-18-sandford-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">Silk</a> will rise 15 levels from an 810 sqm site at 16-18 Sandford Street, occupying a prominent bend of the Brisbane River with a prized northern aspect across Orleigh Park toward the Brisbane CBD.

The approved scheme will comprise 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences, continuing GRAYA's move into larger-format apartment developments targeting Brisbane's prestige owner-occupier market.

The project has been designed around the site's broad river frontage and dual-direction views, with GRAYA prioritising larger residences, privacy and outlook over apartment yield.

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa5c2349-f96c-4914-a812-1f2cd6827af8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WY0vEU_7vYjeRJKQHiCwFdMxu8PvFh52" />

GRAYA Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Rob Gray said the project had been shaped around local homeowners wanting to remain in St Lucia without maintaining a traditional family home.

"St Lucia is one of those suburbs people do not want to leave," Gray said.

"They know the river, the trees, UQ, the golf course, Toowong and Indooroopilly, and that familiarity is hard to replace.

"True riverfront opportunities here are exceptionally scarce. What we have designed at Silk is a way to stay in the suburb people love, with the scale and privacy of a private home and far less to maintain.

"This is not typical apartment product. It is a proper home on the river, and that is exactly what this market has been missing."

The approval comes as new apartment development continues to increase across the St Lucia and neighbouring Toowong corridor, although direct riverfront sites remain considerably more tightly held.

GRAYA Co-founder and Managing Director Andrew Gray said securing the approval had removed a significant element of development risk from Silk.

"Genuine riverfront sites of this quality in St Lucia are not something that comes up regularly," Gray said.

"The approval removes a substantial layer of execution risk, and the location underwrites demand in a way very few inner-city sites can.

"The fundamentals here are as strong as anything we have assessed in Brisbane."

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d0f3d734-65e1-48e8-8ed3-2e0715ffcdd9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sOLSs_jdHkXLWbBKzRyayf5BfTb2vPsD" />

Silk will see GRAYA return to a stretch of the Brisbane River where it already has recent construction experience. The vertically integrated group recently completed ARC in neighbouring Toowong as builder for developer Spyre, delivering the riverfront project on a constrained site.

GRAYA will take a different role at Silk, controlling the project from design and development through construction and aftercare under its vertically integrated model.

The development will include a gym and resident leisure areas at ground level, integrated with the river's edge.

Silk joins a growing pipeline for GRAYA across Brisbane and the Gold Coast, which includes Enclave, The Gallery, Coral and Ripple.

The developer-builder has also recently lodged plans for its largest project to date, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-silo-19-chester-street-newstead-qld-4006">The Silo</a>, a proposed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/graya-buys-frasers-newstead-site-plans-the-silo-between-james-street-and-gasworks-precincts">$700 million mixed-use development</a> in Brisbane's James Street precinct.

Silk is expected to predominantly target local owner-occupiers and prestige buyers seeking a permanent riverfront home in Brisbane's inner west.

Registrations of interest are now open, with further details on the project and construction program to be released as it progresses.

<hr />
<h2>SILK PROJECT FACTS</h2>

Developer-builder: GRAYA

Project: Silk

Location: 16-18 Sandford Street, St Lucia

Apartments: 22

Built form: 15 levels

Site: 810 sqm riverfront holding

Mix: 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences

Status: Development approved

Next step: Construction planning underway

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152168]

GRAYA greenlit for riverfront St Lucia apartment development, Silk

Abadeen has released the whole-floor penthouse crowning its recently completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/park-residences-cremorne-2-sutherland-street-cremorne-nsw-2090">Park Residences</a> development in Cremorne, bringing the near-300 sqm residence to market for the first time.

Occupying the entire top floor of the boutique Lower North Shore development, the penthouse includes 221 sqm of internal living and a 74 sqm wraparound terrace, with a prized north-facing aspect taking in views across Middle Harbour.

The residence has been completed and fully furnished following a collaboration between Abadeen Executive Chairman Justin Brown and internationally recognised interior designer Jack Freeman, Founder and Managing Director of FREEMAN &amp; CO.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/abadeen">Abadeen</a> and Freeman approached the penthouse as a finished home, sourcing furniture, artwork, lighting and objects from Australia and overseas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378718]

Pieces from Parisian design house Pierre Augustin Rose sit alongside contemporary artworks and bespoke lighting, with Freeman drawing on recent visits to PAD Paris and Salone del Mobile Milano for the final collection.

Brown said the aim was to create a penthouse that felt more like a large-scale private home than a traditional apartment.

"The experience begins the moment the lift doors open. You're welcomed into an elegant dining room before the home opens into an extraordinary living space framed by sun-drenched harbour views.

"Every time someone walks through the front door they pause. It's not just the view, it's the incredible sense of space, the warmth created by the northern sunlight that fills the interiors, and the way every room connects so effortlessly.

"It has all the proportions of a luxury home, while delivering the effortless lifestyle and personalised experience of living in a world-class six-star hotel, combined with the simplicity and convenience of apartment living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378713]

A secure lift provides exclusive access to the penthouse level, opening to a dedicated arrival foyer and dining area before the residence expands into its main living and entertaining spaces.

Floor-to-ceiling glazing runs across the northern side of the home, connecting the interiors with the terrace and Middle Harbour outlook.

The penthouse also features a fireplace and substantial chef's kitchen, while the wraparound terrace has been designed to accommodate both everyday outdoor living and larger-scale entertaining.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378720]

Freeman said the interiors had been deliberately kept restrained to complement the scale, natural light and outlook already established by the architecture.

"The penthouse is a serene study in quiet luxury," Freeman said.

"The interior pairs soft, sculptural forms with warm timber, pale stone and a restrained neutral palette. Curated artwork and metallic accents add depth, while abundant natural light creates a calm, effortlessly refined atmosphere. In my world, less is always more."

Freeman said the approach was centred around collecting individual pieces rather than simply decorating the apartment.

"Every material, every object and every piece of furniture has been curated with intention. I am a true believer in collecting versus decorating.

"The architecture already provided extraordinary natural light, remarkable volume and an uninterrupted connection to Middle Harbour. Our role was to complement those qualities with unique one-of-a-kind pieces of fine art and collectible design sourced from recent travels around the world."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378694]

Among the collection are solid bronze sculptures by Lorenzo Quinn, alongside a curated crystalware collection and pieces sourced from international design fairs.

Park Residences sits opposite Cammeray Golf Club, Cammeray Croquet Club and Grand Slam Tennis Cammeray, around 300 metres from Neutral Bay Village and its established collection of restaurants, cafés and retail.

Brown said the combination of a whole-floor floorplan, northern aspect and proximity to Neutral Bay was becoming increasingly difficult to find on the Lower North Shore.

"Completed whole-floor penthouses with a sun-drenched north-facing aspect and sweeping Middle Harbour views are exceptionally rare," Brown said.

"Add a quiet position opposite golf, croquet and tennis facilities, a level walk to Neutral Bay Village and only minutes to the CBD, and you have a lifestyle that's incredibly difficult to replicate.

"This is a home that offers the privacy and generosity of a luxury residence together with the convenience of one of Sydney's best-connected harbourside locations."

The penthouse will be exclusively marketed by SRM Residential.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=114246]

Abadeen unveils penthouse at Park Residences in Cremorne

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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GUEST OBSERVER
The minutes from the RBA’s December Board meeting, at which the cash rate was left unchanged at 2%, don’t give too much new information on the Bank’s thinking but have a marginally more positive tone. 
On household consumption, the RBA seems less worried about the outlook, noting the improvement in retail conditions and removing the reference to the risks to the outlook included in the minutes from the November meeting. The Bank is expecting consumption growth to lift to above-average rates from 2016, and while retail outcomes have improved, we continue to see this forecast as somewhat ambitious, given soft wages growth is likely to weigh on consumption for some time. 
The Board seems broadly comfortable with the housing outlook, noting that dwelling investment is likely to continue to grow but at a slower rate. The minutes did, however, highlight that it was still too early to assess the effect of the recent increase in lenders’ mortgage rates on the housing market. 
On non-mining business spending, the Board seems almost unperturbed by the weakness in the CAPEX survey, noting that while non-mining business investment intentions remained weak, business condition were “clearly above average” in the household and business services sector, which were less capital intensive. 
On the labour market, while noting the improvement in the unemployment rate and measures of job vacancies, the Board continues to point to soft wages growth as evidence of spare capacity in the labour market. 
On the AUD, the minutes contained very little commentary, only noting that the AUD had appreciated against the USD “in contrast to most other currencies”. 
Consistent with the post-meeting statement, the minutes again noted that the “outlook for inflation may afford some scope for a further easing of monetary policy should that be appropriate to lend support to demand”. 
We continue to expect the RBA to cut rates next year. We recently pushed back the timing of those moves, and now expect the Bank to cut rates by 25bps in May and August. We still expect the stimulus from housing and the lower AUD to fade next year, but the recent strength in the labour market precludes a cut as early as February. For 2016, there is also a possibility that further rises in lending rates from the banks, to offset regulatory changes that have raised minimum capital requirements, would cause an unwelcome tightening of financial conditions. With the inflation outlook providing no impediment to lower rates, we think the Bank has scope to provide further stimulus. 
This week’s FOMC meeting will also be important to the monetary policy discussion, firstly, to gauge the market impact of the first Fed rate hike in nearly a decade; and secondly to absorb the Fed’s forward guidance on the likely trajectory of US interest rates. 
We are also likely to get a further update on the Bank’s thinking over the next week or so, with a newspaper interview with Glenn Stevens likely to be published, consistent with the experience of the past few years.
Felicity Emmett co-head of Australian economics, ANZ Research and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/felicity-emmett/5a/3ba/256" target="_blank">here</a>.
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RBA feeling more comfortable: ANZ's Felicity Emmett

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GUEST OBSERVER
We’re launching into yet another silly season, and there will no doubt be the annual holiday splurge – in fact, one estimate puts our nation’s Christmas spending to be around $8.9 billion.
And that’s on gifts alone! There is, however, a ray of hope for your back pocket: with variable interest rates on the move this month, you have even more opportunity to shop around for a better rate. On the off-chance that these rate rises continue, an offset can provide even more control over your loan by letting you slice interest off repayments based on your hard-earned savings.
Here are the lowest home loan rates on finder.com.au that also allow a 100% offset account.
finder.com.au’s lowest variable home loan rates with a 100% offset account
<a href="https://www.finder.com.au/mortgage-house-summer-home-loan-review" target="_blank">Mortgage House Summer Home Loan</a>: 3.94%
With no application or ongoing fees, plus redraw facilities on top of your offset account, this home loan can provide some key cushioning for potential homeowners. Just be aware that you’re also signing up for a $395 legal, $200 Settlement and $450 discharge fee.
<a href="https://www.finder.com.au/boq-clear-path-rate-variable-home-loan#14747" target="_blank">Bank of Queensland Clear Path</a>: 3.99%
The Clear Path home loan will allow you to borrow up to 95% of the property’s value, while also waiving application fees and allowing for free redraws and repayments, which could pad out your mortgage nicely. You will have to crank the budgeting up a notch however, as you’ll then be factoring in a $10 monthly fee and a once-off settlement fee of $150. It’s advised you take some time to sit down and calculate the lifetime costs and benefits of your mortgage, especially in the case of revolving expenses. 
<a href="https://www.finder.com.au/bankwest-complete-home-loan-package-variable#10460" target="_blank">Bankwest Complete Home Loan Package</a>: 4.08%
Let it be said from the get-go that this is a package deal, which usually entails an additional expense of some sort – in this case it’s a considerable $395 annual fee. This might be offset in the first year by no application or legal fees, and its split options, redraw and extra repayment facilities could be enough to pull this loan over the line for you. When it comes to considerable annual fees, it’s a good idea to make sure there’s enough funds sitting in your offset account to negate the rolling expense by the time it hits every year.
finder.com.au’s lowest variable home loan rates with a 100% offset account
<a href="https://www.finder.com.au/beyond-bank-total-home-loan-package#12549" target="_blank">Beyond Bank Total Home Loan Package</a>: 4.09%
Perhaps just as powerful as a 100% offset account is the ability to also make free repayments, and this loan allows the best of both worlds. You can also borrow up to 95% of the property value, along with the ability to redraw funds should your financial standing get shaky. Again, this is a packaged home loan, and you will be slugged with a $395 annual fee, which will be exacerbated in the first year by a $150 settlement fee.
<a href="https://www.finder.com.au/mortgage-house-100-offset-fixed-rate-home-loan-review#13193" target="_blank">Mortgage House 100% Offset</a>: 4.39%
Nothing says freedom like no monthly or annual service fees – which is something recipients of this loan will experience. There is also no application fee tied to this loan, and you will be able to make additional repayments and be able to redraw. Just make sure you have some funds available at all times, as the $200 settlement fee will hit you in the earlier stage of the loan, while the $450 discharge fee will come around at the tail-end of the loan.
<a href="https://www.finder.com.au/st-george-fixed-rate-home-loan#1035" target="_blank">St. George Fixed Rate</a>: 4.44%
This loan comes with a waived legal and valuation fee, along with the ability to split your loan and make extra repayments and redraws. That being said, there are some serious fees that come with this product, including a $600 application, $10 monthly service, $100 settlement and $350 discharge fee. This loan could be your best option – but without doing your homework first, these fees could drown your budget and leave your head underwater for the next 30 years. Tread the water carefully!
Bessie Hassan is consumer advocate at <a href="https://www.finder.com.au" target="_blank">finder.com.au</a>.
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3.94% Mortgage House Summer special tops Finder's December home loans roundup

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australian housing finance approvals to owner occupiers posted a smaller than expected 0.5% decline in Oct – industry data had been pointing to a 1-1.5% decline. 
The detail was on the soft side though. Ex refinance, the number of owner occupier loans declined 1.2%mth, more in line with expectations.
The value of investor loans also declined sharply by -6.1% to be down 13.8% since August and 9.7%yr – the value of loans in this segment are back at June 2014 levels. 
Given the regulatory restraint being applied to investor lending and the indirect spillover boost this appears to be giving to owner occupier loans, the best gauge of broader market conditions is the combined total value of loans.
This declined 2.7% in Oct (ex refi) to be off 5.6% in two months. Annual growth is still positive but at 4.4%yr is much weaker than the strong double-digit growth rates averaged over the three years to August and the slowest annual pace since August 2012. 
In effect the housing market slowdown that has been apparent in buyer sentiment and auction markets is now showing through more clearly in the finance aggregates.
The state detail in today’s release is for owner occupier loans only and as such provides little additional insight into relative state performances. The investor loan split on Friday will allow for a clearer assessment.
 Details  Owner–occupiers (no.)   -0.5%mth, 6.3%yr   – ex-financing (no.)        -1.2%mth, 4.1%yr                                
Construction of dwellings (no.)   -0.4%mth, -9.7%yr         Purchase of newly built dwellings (no.)   -1.6%mth, 8.9%yr                                
Value of loans:             
Owner-occupiers ($bn)  0.4%mth, 21.2%yr   Investors ($bn)  -6.1%mth, -9.2%yr         Total ($bn)  -2%mth, 8.4%yr Total ex refi ($bn)  -2.7%mth, 4.4%yr  
 
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Owner occupier housing finance approvals down 0.77%: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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Allan Moss, who previously headed investment bank Macquarie Group Limited, has been appointed as a part-time member to the Reserve Bank Board for a five-year period.
Moss is a principal of Allan Moss Pty Ltd and advises investment firms Evans and Partners, and Anchorage Capital Partners.
The Reserve Bank Act 1959, provides for nine board members - the governor, the deputy governor, the secretary to the Treasury and six other members.
Catherine Tanna, who has worked with BHP and Royal Dutch Shell, was also appointed a part-time member to the board for a further five-year period, the release by Treasurer Scott Morrison said. 
The other members are governor Glenn Stevens, deputy chair Philip Lowe, John Fraser (secretary to the treasury), John Akehurst, John Edwards, Kathryn Fagg and Heather Ridout.
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Ex-Macquarie boss Allan Moss appointed to RBA board

<html><body><div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens has joked the price of iron ore has even, on occasion, displaced from page one of newspapers the price on which Australians typically focus most intensely – that of a house.
He was speaking in Perth, with the RBA board meeting for the first time in Perth since September 2011. He noted the ‘super-cycle’ in commodity prices, and the associated surge in capital spending, had been of national and international significance.  
"I don't need to tell you that quite a lot has changed in the intervening period.
"At that time, the price of a tonne of iron ore was about US$170.
:A tonne of hard coking coal was bringing in about US$300.
"These were among the prices that saw Australia's terms of trade soar to a level some 75 per cent above their average for the preceding century.
"Few countries have seen such a windfall.
"These extraordinary prices had already, by that time, triggered a massive investment program, which was lifting capacity.
"Four years ago, Australia was shipping about a million tonnes of iron ore each day, which was already double the rate of 2004 - bit under a million tonnes of coal left our shores daily.
"By 2011, capital spending by the resources sector had already roughly trebled since 2005.
"It would peak the following year after rising by a further 50 per cent."
He said the results of that investment have come on stream, or soon will.
"Today, Australia ships around 2 million tonnes of iron ore and 1 million tonnes of coal per day.
"The investment was not just in iron ore and coal.
"On forecasts of strong demand from Asia – not just China but Korea and Japan as well – massive investments are under way in gas.
"LNG exports have begun from some of the Queensland projects and are expected to increase strongly over the coming years.
"As the WA projects come on line in the next few years, Australia's total LNG production capacity will reach over 80 million tonnes per year.
"This compares with a production capacity of around 10 million tonnes a decade ago."
As it happens, about the time the Board was meeting in 2011, resource prices and Australia's terms of trade were about at their peak.
"And what a peak it was.
"On a ten-year average basis, the terms of trade exceeded anything seen for at least a century.
"This was not just a very brief spike like some commodity price events have been (such as the early 1950s rise in the price of wool).
"It was quite persistent.
"Not permanent, but quite persistent.
"Nonetheless, the peak was four years ago.
"Today the price of iron ore is about US$40 per tonne, and coking coal around US$75.
"At a national level, Australia's terms of trade, having been through an extraordinary surge, have fallen by a third and are still declining."
But even at those reduced prices, iron ore is still bringing a price 60 per cent higher than it did in 2000.
Natural gas prices are 50 per cent or more above their 2000 level. 
"The spill-overs of these activities have been felt around the country.
"For the fifty years up to 2005, resources sector investment had averaged just over 1½ per cent of national GDP.
"Periodically, in a boom it tended to reach a peak of perhaps 3 per cent of GDP.
"While the episode is not yet over, at this point the economy overall has been recording growth."
Noting the RBA do not make detailed forecasts at state level, he noted previously, economic activity was very strong in the west and the north-east, driven by the investment boom, while in the south-east of the country it was somewhat subdued.
"Now, as the mining investment boom in the west is in the reversal phase, economic activity here in WA is more subdued, while in the south-east it is picking up.
"Consumer spending and employment growth in WA, which had outpaced the national average by a wide margin, have come back to be a bit below the national average.
"The rate of WA's population growth has slowed.
"Housing prices have declined a little, while those in Sydney and Melbourne have, at least until recently, risen at quite a clip.
"Measures of business conditions in WA are at about their long-run average, having been a long way above that for some years.
"So WA has ‘come back to the pack’, though the pack has actually picked up some speed in the meantime."
He concluded remembering the positive legacy of the events of the past decade.
Household net worth in WA in 2013/14 (the latest available data), at about $950 000 per household, was a good deal higher than in any other state.
"Since then, housing prices in WA have declined while those in some other places have risen, so this gap may have diminished.
"Nonetheless, my guess is that, among the Australian states, the citizens of Western Australia are on average, probably still among the richest.
"Even if the others gradually close the gap over time, as they well might, you are better off for having had the boom."
He said new opportunities for growth will emerge, resulting from things like the growth in the middle class of Asia, with all what that means for demand for services as well as for energy and agricultural production.
"The growth of India is surely also a potential opportunity for WA – facing as you do the Indian Ocean, and with the advantage of relative lesser distance.
"A mere eight hour flight time!" 
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RBA governor Glenn Stevens says WA has come back to the pack

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Borrowers disappointed by the RBA’s decision to keep interest rates on hold can still get an early Christmas rate cut on their home loan by haggling their lender for a better deal, according to <a href="https://mozo.com.au/" target="_blank">Mozo.com.au</a>.
In a recent mystery shopping exercise, Mozo staff posing as borrowers were able to haggle huge discounts of up to 1.25% off the standard variable home loan rate, simply by calling up the banks and asking. 
“The Big 4 are competing more fiercely for owner occupiers in the wake of the crackdown on investor lending, with discounts on offer to these borrowers the biggest we’ve seen,” said Mozo Director Kirsty Lamont.
Mozo data shows that by haggling 1.25% off the average standard variable rate, borrowers could save $223 a month on their repayments on a $300,000, 30-year loan.
“When pushed banks are prepared to offer better discounts beyond their advertised home loan deals which can lead to savings of $2676 each year for borrowers,” said Lamont.
As well as discounts on interest rates, lenders also offered other bonuses including cash back offers and frequent flyer points.
“With 27 home loan providers increasing their variable rates in this month alone, borrowers need to be prepared to do some hard negotiating to get the biggest discounts.” 
Here are Mozo’s top tips to get a better deal on your home loan:
1.    Don’t settle for the advertised price
2.    Research what the best deals are on the market and what competitor lenders are offering
3.    Start negotiating only when the lender knows you’re a good loan candidate
4.    If you can’t haggle on the interest rate, haggle on other aspects of the loan like asking them to waive your home loan application fees
5.    Be willing to move other banking products such as credit cards and transaction accounts to your new lender.
 
Kirsty Lamont is marketing director of <a href="https://mozo.com.au/" target="_blank">Mozo</a>.
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Five tips for a better home loan deal: Mozo's Kirsty Lamont 

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GUEST OBSERVER
In a move that surprised no one, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 2% at its board meeting. 
Moreover the post-meeting statement was a virtual carbon copy of last month’s. Clearly the Bank is waiting and watching the data. The labour market numbers are important, as are the inflation numbers due out in late January. But in the meantime, the data the Bank will be most interested in will be tomorrow’s Q3 household spending numbers. Internationally, any market volatility around the US Fed’s meeting on 16-17 December (AEDT) will be of interest, even though a rate hike is priced by the market. 
The changes to the statement were minimal: 
• The improvement in growth in business credit was noted. 
• The language around housing finance was changed slightly – the statement continued to highlight the easing in lending to investors, but omitted the comment about owner-occupier finance picking up. 
• The last paragraph reiterated last month’s comment that “members also observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand”. 
 
In our view, soft inflation probably does give the RBA the scope to cut rates to give the economy a bit of stimulus. The question will be if, by February when the Bank next meets, it judges that demand does need a bit more of a kick-along. 
Until then, each data release will take on added significance. The labour market data are clearly important, in particularly whether the unemployment rate’s dip below 6% is sustained. The inflation number in late January will also be key. Tomorrow’s Q3 GDP, while somewhat dated, will be important in giving a guide to where things are at currently. 
What will be particularly important in tomorrow’s release will be the household spending numbers. The RBA is forecasting consumption to lift to above average from 2016. Above average is about 3½% y/y. It’s currently running at 2½%, so it will need to accelerate pretty quickly to keep the RBA comfortable with that forecast. With household incomes under pressure, due mainly to soft wages growth, we are doubtful that households will have the capacity to lift their spending to this degree. So tomorrow’s numbers are important to gauge how achievable the Bank’s forecasts are. It will be one of the key numbers the RBA will be watching.
Felicity Emmett co-head of Australian economics, ANZ Research and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/felicity-emmett/5a/3ba/256" target="_blank">here</a>.
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The RBA's decision that surprised no one: ANZ's Felicity Emmett

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0%. This decision was widely anticipated coming as absolutely no surprise to markets.
The key policy conclusion: “Members also observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand” was unchanged from the November meeting when this mild easing bias was first adopted in the wake of the much lower than expected print for underlying inflation in the September quarter.
The key international themes were retained. However in November the language used was “some further softening in conditions in the Asian region”. This was replaced by “some softening in conditions in the Asian region”. Arguably we could interpret this as indicating that the Bank has not observed any additional deterioration over and above what was expected a month ago. Australia’s terms of trade are still described as “falling” while the Bank not surprisingly continues to expect the Federal Reserve to start increasing its policy rate over the period ahead.
Growth in the domestic economy is still described as moderate but a gradual improvement in business surveys for the non-mining sector has been evident. This has been boosting employment growth and ensuring a stabilisation of the unemployment rate. Confidence around the labour market has been slightly boosted with November discussing “somewhat stronger growth in employment” and this statement referring to “stronger growth in employment”.
In the Statement on Monetary Policy the Bank confirmed the mid-point of its underlying inflation forecast for 2016 as 2.5%. However in the December statement it does confirm the November assessment that inflation will be consistent with the target over the next one to two years but qualifies that by suggesting that it will be “a little lower than earlier expected”.
Along with the observation that business surveys in non-mining are showing a gradual improvement this statement complements confidence around business by pointing out that “credit provided by intermediaries to business picking up”.
Since the last meeting the AUD has increased from USD0.715 to USD0.725 despite a fall in the iron ore price from USD49 to USD43 and a 5% fall in the Westpac’s overall commodity price index. With those contrasting changes there was some possibility that the commentary around the Australian dollar might be a little more urgent. However, with only one month’s data to go by, the Bank has decided to retain the sentiment around the Australian dollar as “the Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in commodity prices”.
Outlook
Markets are currently attributing a 25% probability to a cut of 25bps in February. Of course this pricing has been scaled back from more than 100% over the last five weeks. Westpac still expects rates to be on hold in February. Developments that would be necessary to change our minds would be around the labour market; commodity prices; GDP growth; and confidence. However, we expect that such developments would take time to trigger a policy change and even though the February meeting is two months away we don’t expect sufficient developments in that regard.
The risks for lower rates should be much more focussed on May where the market gives a more than 50% probability of a cut. Our current forecasts do not justify that decision but of course those forecasts are being constantly reviewed.
Certainly if there is to be a move over the next six months it will be down rather than up.
Bill Evans is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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February cut also looks unlikely: Westpac's Bill Evans

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The cash rate has been left at a record low of 2% for a seventh month (eight months of rates at 2%).
The Reserve Bank Board has noted the moderation in home prices in Melbourne and Sydney.
What does it all mean?
In November, the Reserve Bank re-instituted the ‘easing bias’. That is, the RBA intimated that if rates were to move in coming months it would be down, not up. The ‘easing bias’ hasn’t changed. But this is more of an insurance policy. The economy is actually performing well and momentum appears to be lifting. Of course, if the economy started to lose steam, then the RBA could cut rates again – for the key reason that inflation is actually a bit lower than the RBA had earlier expected.
<a href="/images/2015/12/1/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-01%20at%203.22.28%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/1/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-01%20at%203.22.28%20PM.png" alt="">
The next meeting of the Reserve Bank Board is not until February 2 2016.
On the Australian dollar, the Reserve Bank continued with the same language: “The Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.” Seemingly, the RBA is “happy” with the current level of the currency. However some could contend that the Aussie is a little firm compared with commodity prices like gold, oil, coal and iron ore.
On the housing market, the RBA noted: “The pace of growth in dwelling prices has moderated in Melbourne and Sydney over recent months and has remained mostly subdued in other cities.” Back in October, the RBA said: “Dwelling prices continue to rise strongly in Sydney and Melbourne, though trends have been more varied in a number of other cities.” The Reserve Bank would be happy that supply and demand in the housing market has become more balanced in Australia’s biggest cities.
The good news is that Aussie consumers and businesses have almost two months of grace before being badgered again by interest rate speculation.
Perspectives on interest rates
The previous rate cut was in May 2015 (25 basis points), taking the cash rate to a record low of 2%.
There have been 10 rate cuts since November 2011.
The Reserve Bank had previously lifted rates seven times from October 2009 to November 2010 – a total of 1.75 percentage points, from 3% to 4.75%.
What are the implications of today’s decision?
CommSec doesn’t expect any change in the cash rate for the foreseeable future. Inflation is under control but the major uncertainty relates to the “pass-through” of the lower exchange rate in lifting prices of imported goods. So far, retailers have been reluctant to pass on higher prices to consumers. The economy is well supported by record building approvals which are serving to lift many boats across the country.
With interest rates poised to stay low or potentially move even lower, investors will need to remain pro-active in embracing the best deals on online bank accounts. Borrowers also need to be on guard as fixed-term rates could edge higher in coming months as the US Federal Reserve seeks to ‘normalise’ interest rates.
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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No surprises from the Reserve Bank: CommSec's Craig James

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GUEST OBSERVER
The board of the Reserve Bank of Australia today decided to keep the Official Cash Rate at 2%t - there is no surprise there.
The RBA has signalled that the cash rate will remain on hold for the foreseeable future.
The Bank has also signalled that if there is to be any change in 2016 it will be a further reduction.
That is the appropriate message for now given the uncertainty around future new home construction activity in 2016/17 and beyond. 
Higher variable mortgage rates and a broader reach for investor credit rationing than required is hitting at the very time when the new residential construction cycle is at or close to a peak. That is a risk for the broader Australian economy. 
<a href="/images/2015/12/1/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-01%20at%202.56.18%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/1/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-01%20at%202.56.18%20PM.png" alt="" width="772" height="385">
Harley Dale is chief economist, HIA and can be contacted <a href="https://hia.com.au/en/BusinessInfo/economicInfo/EcoGroup.aspx" target="_blank">here</a>.
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