National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

Joel Robinson

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

For the first time since the Reserve Bank of Australia began hiking rates in May 2022, markets are pricing in four interest rate cuts within the next 12 months. 
 
At the end of each trading day, the ASX publishes its&nbsp;RBA Target Rate Tracker&nbsp;which calculates the probability of changes in the overnight cash rate based upon the implied yields of very short-term (30-day) interest rate futures.&nbsp; 
 
The ASX’s Tracker as at yesterday’s close shows that markets are predicting the RBA will first cut interest rates by 25 basis points in February 2025, with three more in the run-up to August. The RBA meets eight times in 2025 (February, April, May, July, August, September, November, and December). 
 
The RBA’s official cash rate sits at 4.35 per cent.

Any movement in the official cash rate, and most importantly banks passing on those interest rate changes, will help address several challenges in the off the plan apartment space.&nbsp;

The first one is demand. A lower interest rate environment means buyers will have more money to spend due to increased serviceability. Buyers haven't had an opportunity to extend their serviceability in over two years.

For a prospective buyer wanting to take out a $641,000 mortgage, the average mortgage size across Australia according to the ABS, four rate cuts would translate to over $5,000 in savings per year on average, Finder analysis suggests.

On top of lower repayments, there's increased serviceability, meaning a buyer can spend more than they could if the interest rate is higher.&nbsp;

Average Aussie mortgage repayments

<table>
	<thead>
		<tr>
			<th>&nbsp;</th>
			<th>Cash rate</th>
			<th>Average home loan rate*</th>
			<th>Average monthly repayment</th>
			<th>Average monthly decrease</th>
			<th>Average annual repayment</th>
			<th>Average annual decrease</th>
		</tr>
	</thead>
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td>September 2024</td>
			<td>4.35%</td>
			<td>7.07%</td>
			<td>$4,296</td>
			<td>-</td>
			<td>$51,552</td>
			<td>-</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>1 rate cut</td>
			<td>4.10%</td>
			<td>6.82%</td>
			<td>$4,189</td>
			<td>$107</td>
			<td>$1,284</td>
			<td>$1,284</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>2 rate cuts</td>
			<td>3.85%</td>
			<td>6.57%</td>
			<td>$4,083</td>
			<td>$213</td>
			<td>$2,556</td>
			<td>$2,556</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>3 rate cuts</td>
			<td>3.60%</td>
			<td>6.32%</td>
			<td>$3,977</td>
			<td>$319</td>
			<td>$3,828</td>
			<td>$3,828</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>4 rate cuts</td>
			<td>3.35%</td>
			<td>6.07%</td>
			<td>$3,873</td>
			<td>$423</td>
			<td>$5,076</td>
			<td>$5,076</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="5">Source: Finder, RBA, ABS. *Owner-occupier variable discounted rate. Repayments based on the average loan of $641,143 (ABS data analysed by Finder).</td>
			<td colspan="2"><img alt="" data-bit="iit" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="31" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXco5HuNAjqBICpVCvo3HzWGg4p7cL4LNNgRMBhoA67KYJfOqqJQa7ZSRA71Ju988qgvPsCeSbWhwDfAV4E8iSpKXp6wBkUPMclLxe1_IMfwemjiI4eU8l9Q_QrMukqJYMAzm_jSHgst3qtOzFkqULeIMf8?key=iigATMhksU1ODdPeSGzwIA" width="170" /></td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Not only will buyers have more money to spend due to increased serviceability, but the supply of new apartments is likely to increase if borrowing costs for the developers are reduced.

Many developers across the country have new apartment projects ready to launch but are waiting for more favorable news on interest rates. It seemed at the start of the year that rates would be going down by mid-2024; however, inflationary pressure has led the RBA to maintain a hold on rates in each of the five meetings this year.

The Board will meet again next week, expecting to hold the official cash rate again at 4.35 per cent.

For a prospective buyer wanting to take out a $641,000 mortgage, the average mortgage size across Australia according to the ABS, four rate cuts would translate to over $5,000 in savings per year on average, Finder analysis suggests

Markets price in four RBA rate cuts in next 12 months: What it means for the off the plan apartment market

The following is the statement provided by Michele Bullock which can be <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2023/mr-23-35.html">found here</a>.

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent.

Last month, the Board increased interest rates by 25&nbsp;basis points, following a period of four months where it had held interest rates steady. This decision reflected the Board’s view that progress in bringing inflation back to the target range of 2&nbsp;to 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent was looking slower than earlier forecast. While the economy has been experiencing a period of below-trend growth, it was stronger than expected over the first half of the year. Underlying inflation was higher than expected at the time of the August forecasts, including across a broad range of services. Conditions in the labour market had eased but remained tight. Housing prices were continuing to rise across the country as was the number of new mortgages. Given this, the Board judged that the risk of inflation remaining higher for longer had risen and an increase in interest rates was therefore warranted to be more assured that inflation would return to target in a reasonable timeframe.

The limited information received on the domestic economy since the November meeting has been broadly in line with expectations. The monthly CPI indicator for October suggested that inflation is continuing to moderate, driven by the goods sector; the inflation update did not, however, provide much more information on services inflation. Overall, measures of inflation expectations remain consistent with the inflation target. Wages growth picked up in the September quarter but this was expected given that it captured the earlier Fair Work Commission decision on award wages. Wages growth is not expected to increase much further and remains consistent with the inflation target, provided productivity growth picks up. Conditions in the labour market also continued to ease gradually, although they remain tight.

Higher interest rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy. The impact of the more recent rate rises, including last month's, will continue to flow through the economy. High inflation is weighing on people’s real incomes and household consumption growth is weak, as is dwelling investment. Holding the cash rate steady at this meeting will allow time to assess the impact of the increases in interest rates on demand, inflation and the labour market.

Returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s priority. High inflation makes life difficult for everyone and damages the functioning of the economy. It erodes the value of savings, hurts household budgets, makes it harder for businesses to plan and invest, and worsens income inequality. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be much more costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment. To date, medium-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.

There are still significant uncertainties around the outlook. While there have been encouraging signs on goods inflation abroad, services price inflation has remained persistent and the same could occur in Australia. There also remains a high level of uncertainty around the outlook for the Chinese economy and the implications of the conflicts abroad. Domestically, there are uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of monetary policy and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will respond to the slower growth in the economy at a time when the labour market remains tight. The outlook for household consumption also remains uncertain, with many households experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances, while some are benefiting from rising housing prices, substantial savings buffers and higher interest income.

Whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks. In making its decisions, the Board will continue to pay close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.

Staff Writer

RBA keeps rates on hold at final meeting of 2023

The full statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia on its November Cup Day rate hike

At its meeting today, the Board decided to raise the cash rate target by 25&nbsp;basis points to 4.35&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent. It also increased the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances by 25&nbsp;basis points to 4.25&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent.

Inflation in Australia has passed its peak but is still too high and is proving more persistent than expected a few months ago. The latest reading on CPI inflation indicates that while goods price inflation has eased further, the prices of many services are continuing to rise briskly. While the central forecast is for CPI inflation to continue to decline, progress looks to be slower than earlier expected. CPI inflation is now expected to be around 3½&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent by the end of 2024 and at the top of the target range of 2&nbsp;to 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent by the end of 2025. The Board judged an increase in interest rates was warranted today to be more assured that inflation would return to target in a reasonable timeframe.

The Board had held interest rates steady since June following an increase of 4&nbsp;percentage points since May last year. It had judged that higher interest rates were working to establish a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy. Furthermore, it had noted that the impact of the more recent rate rises would continue to flow through the economy. It had therefore decided that it was appropriate to hold rates steady to provide time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates so far. In particular, the Board had indicated that it would be paying close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.

Since its August meeting, the Board has received updated information on inflation, the labour market, economic activity and the revised set of forecasts. The weight of this information suggests that the risk of inflation remaining higher for longer has increased. While the economy is experiencing a period of below-trend growth, it has been stronger than expected over the first half of the year. Underlying inflation was higher than expected at the time of the August forecasts, including across a broad range of services. Conditions in the labour market have eased but they remain tight. Housing prices are continuing to rise across the country.

At the same time, high inflation is weighing on people’s real incomes and household consumption growth is weak, as is dwelling investment. Given that the economy is forecast to grow below trend, employment is expected to grow slower than the labour force and the unemployment rate is expected to rise gradually to around 4¼&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent. This is a more moderate increase than previously forecast. Wages growth has picked up over the past year but is still consistent with the inflation target, provided that productivity growth picks up.

Returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s priority. High inflation makes life difficult for everyone and damages the functioning of the economy. It erodes the value of savings, hurts household budgets, makes it harder for businesses to plan and invest, and worsens income inequality. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be much more costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment. To date, medium-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.

There are still significant uncertainties around the outlook. Services price inflation has been surprisingly persistent overseas and the same could occur in Australia. There are uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of monetary policy and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will respond to the slower growth in the economy at a time when the labour market remains tight. The outlook for household consumption also remains uncertain, with many households experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances, while some are benefiting from rising housing prices, substantial savings buffers and higher interest income. And globally, there remains a high level of uncertainty around the outlook for the Chinese economy and the implications of the conflicts abroad.

Whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks. In making its decisions, the Board will continue to pay close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.

Source: <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2023/mr-23-30.html">www.rba.gov.au</a>

At its meeting today, the Board decided to raise the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent

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