The Gold Coast economy has grown by 25 per cent since 2020/21 to surpass $55 billion, but perhaps the more significant story is what sits behind the headline number.

For decades, the Gold Coast has been viewed through the lens of tourism, lifestyle and population growth. The latest State of the City Report suggests that perception is increasingly out of step with reality.

Released by Invest Gold Coast, the report ranks the Gold Coast as Australia's largest non-capital city economy and, perhaps more notably, second nationally behind Sydney for Economic Complexity, a measure that assesses the diversity and sophistication of an economy.

It's a result that places the Gold Coast ahead of Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, highlighting the extent to which the city's economic base has broadened beyond its traditional industries.

Today, the Gold Coast supports more than 350,000 jobs, is home to over 83,000 businesses and generates $19 billion in annual exports. Manufacturing now accounts for 62 per cent of international export growth, while sectors including health, education, advanced manufacturing, technology and professional services are becoming increasingly important contributors to the local economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]

Gold Coast Mayor Tom Tate said the report confirmed the city's evolution into one of Australia's most significant economies.

"The Gold Coast economy continues to grow at an incredible pace. This is no surprise to those of us who have watched the evolution up close," Mayor Tate said.

"As one of the most entrepreneurial, investment driven and opportunity focused economies in the country our ambition has been realised and possibilities are endless.

"The Gold Coast has built a reputation as the city that says yes. We say yes to investment, yes to opportunity and yes to people who want to build something.

"It's this mindset helping us drive major growth across health, advanced manufacturing, screen production, marine, technology and the knowledge economy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360975]

While population growth has been one of the defining stories of the past decade, the report points to a broader economic transformation taking place.

The city's knowledge economy now contributes $7.9 billion annually and supports around 31,000 jobs, while the health and wellbeing sector contributes $5.2 billion and employs more than 42,000 people. Together, the six priority sectors identified in the report account for almost $24 billion in economic output and more than 145,000 jobs.

One of the strongest examples is the Gold Coast Health and Knowledge Precinct at Southport. The 200-hectare precinct now contains more than $5 billion worth of health, education, research and innovation infrastructure and supports over 16,000 jobs.

The report also highlights the growing role of advanced manufacturing, particularly in aerospace, defence and modular construction.

Gold Coast-based Gilmour Space Technologies recently became the first Australian commercial company to attempt an orbital launch, while companies including Modscape and ModnPods are helping establish the Yatala-Stapylton corridor as one of Australia's fastest-growing advanced manufacturing hubs.

The city's entrepreneurial culture is also translating into business growth.

Since 2019/20, the number of businesses operating on the Gold Coast has increased by 22 per cent, while firms employing more than 200 people have grown by 80 per cent. The report suggests the next challenge is converting more local start-ups and medium-sized businesses into nationally significant companies.

Development activity remains another key indicator of confidence.

There are currently more than $23 billion worth of major projects underway across the Gold Coast, supported by a record 75 active cranes, a figure that now exceeds Brisbane and represents a 150 per cent increase since 2016.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112024 project_image_fid=343235]

Importantly, the report notes the next phase of investment will need to extend beyond residential development.

While 93 per cent of crane activity is currently tied to housing, Invest Gold Coast argues future investment will increasingly need to focus on cultural, civic, infrastructure and industry-enabling projects that strengthen the city's long-term economic resilience.

Invest Gold Coast Chair Will Hodgman said the city was now benefiting from years of economic diversification.

"What is happening on the Gold Coast is the result of the city's economic base broadening, fuelled by industries with long-term, high-growth potential," Mr Hodgman said.

"This is no longer a secondary Australian economy, the Gold Coast is becoming a globally connected city with deeper capability across health, knowledge and creative industries, advanced manufacturing, technology and exports."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365786]

Looking ahead, the Gold Coast's population is projected to exceed one million residents by 2046.

For a city that was once largely defined by tourism and lifestyle, the latest figures suggest the Gold Coast is becoming something more significant, one of Australia's most diverse and economically sophisticated urban economies, and increasingly one that national and international investors can no longer afford to overlook.

Joel Robinson

75 cranes, $23 billion pipeline and a $55 billion economy: Inside the Gold Coast economic boom

Ron Bakir's Homecorp has sold more than 75 per cent of the apartments in its wellness-driven Florence Residences in Surfers Paradise following its first weekend release.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/florence-residences-24-monte-carlo-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">26-storey project on Monte Carlo Avenue</a>, which commenced construction earlier this year, has seen a flurry of buyers secure their slice of the Gold Coast's latest wellbeing-focused offering in one of the nation's most competitive property markets.

Since the pandemic, the Gold Coast's population has grown by more than 11 per cent, a rate approximately four times faster than Sydney's, driven largely by lifestyle changes and interstate migration. While buyer activity has moderated in some markets nationally, demand for newly built dwellings on the Gold Coast continues to gain momentum as purchasers increasingly prioritise lifestyle, amenity, wellbeing, liveability and long-term investment potential.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150414 project_image_fid=372743]

Homecorp CEO Ron Bakir says buyers today are looking for more than just a home.

"What we are seeing is a shift in how people define value in property," Bakir says.

"What attracts residents to new developments is a desire for more than just a residence. They are looking for a place that complements their lifestyle, supports their wellbeing and reflects the way they want to live into the future.

"Lifestyle, longevity, proactive health, wellbeing, connection and a sense of community are increasingly shaping purchasing decisions, particularly on the Gold Coast, where these factors continue to be a major drawcard."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150414 project_image_fid=372744]

Bakir says Homecorp is responding to this shift through an approach that places greater emphasis on design, amenity and experience working together to create places that feel considered, connected and enduring in value.

Inspired by Eastern European design, Florence Residences will comprise 120 apartments alongside a private residents-only wellness club featuring a resort-style rooftop pool, hot and cold plunge pools, a spa retreat, contemporary gymnasium, and a spacious yoga and Pilates studio.

The development will also feature a residents-only lounge with private dining facilities and a rooftop bar, premium outdoor entertaining areas, a hotel-style lobby lounge, generous bike parking, and pet-friendly amenities including a heated dog wash.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150414 project_image_fid=372742]

A limited number of apartments remain available, with an exclusive collection of four-bedroom sub-penthouses set to be released in the coming months.

Florence is one of the latest additions to Homecorp's expanding multi-billion-dollar property portfolio, which also includes plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/homecorp-lodges-plans-for-260-million-moroccan-bathhouse-inspired-tower-in-budds-beach">$260 million development in Budds Beach</a> tailored to the growing wellness market.

A development application has been lodged for a 27-storey, 156-residence tower at 8–10 Acacia Avenue and 25–27 Oak Avenue, featuring a residents-only Moroccan spa-inspired sanctuary.

Apartments at Florence Residences are priced from $1,249,000, with construction expected to be completed by late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150414]

Buyers rush to Homecorp's Florence Residences as Gold Coast wellness trend gains momentum

The NSW Government has expanded its $1 billion Pre-sale Finance Guarantee program, broadening access for affordable housing providers and smaller residential developments as it seeks to accelerate housing delivery across the state.

The Minns Government says the program has already helped bring forward more than 600 homes across Sydney and regional NSW since launching in September 2025, with similar models now adopted in South Australia and Western Australia.

The latest changes, announced by Treasurer Daniel Mookhey and Minister for Planning and Public Spaces Paul Scully, are designed to improve access to finance for projects that have planning approval but are struggling to secure funding.

Among the key changes is an expansion of support for community housing providers. The program will now support up to 100 per cent affordable housing projects valued at up to $30 million when delivered by not-for-profit providers, while support for larger affordable housing developments will increase for projects worth up to $80 million.

The government says the changes will help accelerate the delivery of housing for low-income workers, older people, people living with disability, and those at risk of homelessness, while reducing reliance on direct grants or subsidised loans to bridge funding gaps.

The eligibility criteria for smaller residential developments have also been broadened. The previous $5 million minimum project value threshold has been removed and replaced with a requirement that projects deliver at least four homes.

Support has also increased for projects delivering fewer than 20 homes, with the guarantee now able to cover up to 75 per cent of dwellings in a development, capped at $30 million per project.

The changes are expected to particularly benefit smaller-scale and regional developments, which often face greater challenges meeting pre-sale requirements imposed by lenders.

Treasurer Daniel Mookhey said the scheme demonstrates how government can use its balance sheet to stimulate housing supply without relying solely on taxpayer-funded grants.

"The Pre-sale Finance Guarantee shows how this Government is using its balance sheet to reduce risk and unlock private investment, enabling new homes to move from design to construction faster," Mookhey said.

"This landmark reform allows us to deliver homes for working families at a lower cost to taxpayers, while also maintaining strong financial discipline."

Planning Minister Paul Scully said the program had already proven effective in bringing stalled projects to market.

"The Pre-sale Finance Guarantee has already proven it can unlock stalled projects and accelerate housing delivery by giving lenders the confidence they need to back good developments," Scully said.

"These changes will allow more affordable housing and smaller developments to access support so more homes can be built faster where communities need them most."

Housing Minister Rose Jackson said the expansion would help community housing providers overcome financing barriers that often delay projects.

"We know community housing providers are ready to build more homes, too often they're held back by barriers to finance," Jackson said.

"Expanding the Pre-sale Finance Guarantee helps remove those barriers so more affordable homes can get off the ground sooner."

The announcement was welcomed by the Property Council of Australia, which has long advocated for measures aimed at improving project feasibility and access to finance.

Property Council NSW Executive Director Katie Stevenson described the expansion as a practical intervention that addresses one of the most immediate constraints on housing delivery.

"This is exactly the kind of practical intervention we need right now, focused on getting projects out of the ground, not just approved," Stevenson said.

"It builds on a model the Property Council has worked closely with government to develop following calls for such a scheme ahead of last year's NSW Budget, so it's great to see it being expanded."

Stevenson said the reforms would help unlock projects that are ready to proceed but have been delayed by financing challenges. However, she noted that broader feasibility issues remain a significant barrier to increasing housing supply.

"The biggest challenge in NSW housing today is delivery. Too many projects have planning approval but are simply not financially viable to proceed under current settings," she said.

Speaking at the Property Council's NSW Housing Summit, Housing Minister Rose Jackson acknowledged that feasibility and financing pressures continue to constrain housing delivery, while reaffirming the government's commitment to work with industry on solutions.

Stevenson said the government's recognition of those challenges was encouraging ahead of next week's state budget.

"It's positive to see the government clearly recognising that feasibility pressures are now a binding constraint on supply," she said.

"With the Budget just days away, the focus must be on backing delivery, making sure projects stack up, finance can flow, and more homes can move from approval to construction."

The expanded Pre-sale Finance Guarantee forms part of the NSW Government's broader housing agenda, which also includes planning reforms, the NSW Housing Pattern Book, and a series of rezonings intended to increase housing capacity across the state.

NSW expands Pre-sale Finance Guarantee to unlock more affordable and regional housing

Design-led developer-builder Lowe Living has unveiled its latest residential development, Jardin House, marking its first foray into Melbourne's blue-chip City of Boroondara.

Located a short walk from Camberwell Junction, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House</a> has been designed to appeal to affluent local downsizers and established families seeking a low-maintenance alternative to the large homes that have long defined Camberwell and surrounding suburbs.

The project will comprise a collection of two and three-bedroom apartments ranging from 92 sqm to 280 sqm, alongside a limited number of penthouse residences featuring rooftop terraces spanning more than 100 sqm, with optional private pools.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372212]

Lowe Living Co-Founder and Managing Director Tim Lowe said Camberwell represented a natural next step for the developer as it expands into some of Melbourne's most tightly held residential markets.

"Jardin House is an important project for our team as it marks the next evolution of our portfolio into different well-established blue-chip pockets of Melbourne," Lowe said.

"Camberwell, with its incredible walkability, family-led neighbourhood feel and superb access to education and transport, makes it a natural choice for us."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372227]

Designed by Tristan Wong Architects, with interiors by Hecker Guthrie and landscaping by Acre, the development takes inspiration from the Art Deco architecture that remains a defining feature of many of Camberwell's established streets.

A curved facade, arched openings, textured brickwork and sculpted forms reference the suburb's architectural heritage, while extensive landscaping softens the building's presence and creates a strong connection to the surrounding tree-lined streetscape.

The project will be set behind a secure gated entrance, with residents arriving through landscaped gardens designed to create a transition between the public realm and private residences.

Inside, the residences feature natural stone and timber finishes, full-height glazing, Miele appliances and generous open-plan living areas designed for long-term owner occupation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372225]

While the apartments themselves have been designed to attract discerning owner-occupiers, it is the amenity offering that sets Jardin House apart from many other boutique projects currently launching across Melbourne.

The centrepiece is a 350 sqm private bathhouse curated in partnership with Aurora Spa &amp; Bathhouse founder Lyndall Mitchell.

The wellness precinct includes mineral pools, hydrotherapy experiences, a Himalayan salt room, sauna, steam room, cold plunge pools and dedicated relaxation spaces, creating what Lowe Living describes as a private wellness retreat exclusively for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372222]

The collaboration follows Lowe Living's recent partnership with Aurora at Maison Savoy in Brighton, although Jardin House is the first project to incorporate both indoor and outdoor wellness experiences.

Emma Lowe, Co-Founder and Managing Director of Lowe Living, said wellness was becoming an increasingly important consideration for apartment buyers.

"Collaborating with Lyndall Mitchell from Aurora Spa &amp; Bathhouse for a second time is an intentional nod to creating residences that are more than just homes, but a way to enrich the lives of our residents through wellness and longevity," Lowe said.

The amenity offering is complemented by a Technogym fitness studio, residents' lounge, private dining spaces and concierge services.

The launch comes as developers increasingly target Melbourne's established eastern suburbs, where rising land values, ageing housing stock and growing downsizer demand are creating opportunities for boutique apartment projects.

Lowe said the company expects significant generational wealth transfer across suburbs such as Camberwell in coming years, creating further demand for luxury apartment living.

"Camberwell is a blue-chip suburb where homes regularly transact for multiple millions of dollars," he said.

"The generational change of wealth in these locations expected in the coming years is significant, so we see an opportunity to create exclusive residences that appeal to older families and downsizers in order to meet this demand."

Apartments at Jardin house start from $1,195,000. The project forms part of Lowe Living's near-$1 billion portfolio of new developments across Melbourne.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=146717]

Lowe Living launches Jardin House in Camberwell

As <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/north-sydney-nsw-2060">North Sydney</a> continues its transition from a commercial centre into a more layered residential and lifestyle precinct, a new generation of apartment developments is reshaping expectations around scale, amenity, and long-term liveability.

Improved transport connections through the Victoria Cross Metro, continued investment in dining and public spaces, and a constrained supply of new luxury apartments have sharpened demand for homes that combine proximity to the CBD with the privacy and outlook traditionally associated with harbourside houses.

At 177 Walker Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aland">ALAND</a>’s new apartment development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-walden-north-sydney-177-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">The Walden</a> enters the market with a distinctly residential approach to high-rise living. The 30-level tower will deliver 161 residences, ranging from one-bedroom apartments through to sub-penthouses and a full-floor penthouse, all oriented to capture uninterrupted views across Sydney Harbour, the Opera House, and out toward the Pacific Ocean.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6395]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, the project takes advantage of the site’s natural topography and elevated position above the harbour. Rather than relying on density alone, the architecture focuses on outlook, orientation, and spatial flow, with every apartment occupying a corner position to maximise natural light and cross ventilation.

Rothelowman says the site itself shaped much of the architectural response.

“The site has a long history in terms of its inevitable transformation and when we came in, we took inspiration from the idea of reestablishing a sense of the site’s natural terrain and fall. Our scheme aims to integrate with the terrain and the landscape, using the undulating site to slowly reveal glimpses and views of the harbour. The rotation of the tower off grid means every apartment has a view and is naturally cross ventilated. The building's colour palette is quintessentially Sydney, with bronze and sandstone and a luminescent green colour in the glass, making it very earthy and grounded in its location.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6399]

Inside the residences, the emphasis moves toward larger-format living typically associated with standalone homes. Kitchens sit at the centre of the apartments, connecting directly to open-plan dining and living areas before extending outward into expansive winter gardens and balconies. Calacatta marble, bespoke joinery, integrated appliances, and custom metal detailing are used throughout, while three distinct interior palettes, Terrace, Opera, and Harbour, allow buyers to personalise the spaces without compromising the architectural consistency of the project.

The larger residences place particular attention on separation between entertaining and private zones. In many apartments, master suites occupy the outer corners of the floorplates, allowing bedrooms to benefit from floor-to-ceiling glazing and harbour outlooks independent of the living spaces. Dressing rooms and ensuites continue the material palette through fluted detailing, freestanding baths, and layered stone finishes.

Rothelowman says the design intent centred on creating homes that feel enduring rather than transient.

“Our philosophy is all about the way people live in these spaces, and we wanted to create homes that reflect the quality of life in this unique Sydney location. The apartments showcase expansive living spaces that are generous, sophisticated, and bold, with the ability to connect with views throughout each apartment.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=353235]

A separate four-storey amenity building known as The Pavilion expands the residential offering beyond the apartments themselves. Positioned alongside the tower, the building consolidates wellness, recreation, and social spaces into a dedicated resident retreat. Facilities include a 20-metre rooftop pool and sundeck, sauna, spa, ice bath, wellness studio, gymnasium, concierge service, wine cellar, residents’ lounge, private dining spaces, and dedicated co-working areas with meeting rooms and boardroom facilities.

The amenity mix reflects the buyer profile emerging in North Sydney, where owner-occupiers and downsizers are increasingly prioritising convenience, apartment scale, and long-term usability over purely investment-driven decisions.

The Walden also represents a significant milestone for ALAND, marking the company’s first major move into Sydney’s inner-city luxury apartment market after more than two decades delivering large-scale residential communities across Greater Sydney. Founder Andrew Hrsto says the Walker Street site stood apart because of both its positioning and its rarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6390]

“As a company, we had been searching for a site in one of Sydney’s blue-chip locations, spanning the Eastern Suburbs, the Sydney CBD and the North Shore, and when we had the opportunity to purchase this site, we immediately recognised that it could be something iconic.”

At launch, The Walden recorded more than $103 million in sales, with buyers drawn to the project’s harbour positioning, apartment scale, and proximity to the Metro, which now connects North Sydney to Barangaroo in three minutes and Martin Place in five.

ALAND has commenced construction, and is expecting a completion date in 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134323]

The Walden pairs house-scale living with North Sydney connectivity

Sydney’s property market is known for high prices, competitive bidding, and mounting pressure on first home buyers. But change is on the horizon.

From late 2025, eligible first home buyers in New South Wales will have access to a new federal government initiative aimed at addressing affordability: the Help to Buy Scheme.&nbsp;

<h2>What is the Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

The program introduces a shared equity model intended to reduce the upfront cost of entering the property market, particularly in high-demand urban areas such as Sydney.

The scheme operates under a shared ownership structure in which the federal government takes an equity stake of up to 40 per cent for new homes, or 30 per cent for existing dwellings. This arrangement allows eligible buyers to significantly reduce their loan size and avoid the added cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI).

Under this model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required. The government’s contribution is not a loan but a co-ownership stake in the property. As such, there is no interest or rent charged on its portion.

Because the government’s equity combined with the buyer’s deposit typically meets or exceeds the 20 per cent threshold, LMI does not apply. The remaining balance, generally between 60 and 70 per cent of the property’s value, is financed through a standard home loan with a participating lender.

The government's equity in the property remains in place until the buyer chooses to repay it voluntarily or until the property is sold. Buyers can buy back the government’s share over time, in increments of at least five per cent, depending on their financial situation.

There is no fixed repayment timeline, but the amount to be repaid will be based on the property's market value at the time of repayment, not the original purchase price.

<h2>How do you qualify for the&nbsp;Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

To qualify for the Help to Buy Scheme, applicants must meet the following conditions:

<ul>
	<li>Be an Australian citizen at least 18 years of age.</li>
	<li>Be a first-home buyer who does not currently own property.</li>
	<li>Intend to live in the property as their primary residence.</li>
	<li>Earn less than $100,000 per year for individuals, or $160,000 for couples.</li>
	<li>Purchase a property within the regional price caps, currently $950,000 in Sydney, though this is expected to rise to approximately $1.3 million ahead of the program’s launch.</li>
</ul>

While the Help to Buy Scheme does not solve affordability challenges across the board, it does offer a more accessible pathway for a defined segment of the market, particularly younger buyers with moderate incomes who have been priced out of traditional lending routes.

The scheme is expected to commence in NSW in late 2025, as part of a national rollout.

Under the new model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required

Help to Buy Scheme: What first home buyers in NSW need to know

The First Home Owners Grant (FHOG) is a government initiative designed to help eligible first-time home buyers by offering financial assistance towards the purchase or construction of a new home.

While the FHOG is a nationwide program, it is administered separately by each state and territory, meaning the eligibility criteria, grant amounts, and property requirements can vary depending on your location. This means that the amount available and the conditions attached to the grant will differ, so it is important to check the specific guidelines for your state or territory.

It’s important to note that the FHOG is just one of several incentives available to first home buyers. In most states and territories, the grant is not linked to stamp duty exemptions or concessions, with the exception of the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The FHOG is typically a one-off payment, reducing the overall cost of purchasing or building a new home before any stamp duty concessions are applied.

Below, we provide a breakdown of the First Home Owner Grants available across Australia, outlining the specific details for each state and territory.

<h2>New South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $600,000. For land purchases and owner-builders, the threshold extends to $750,000.

Stamp Duty Benefits: Provides full stamp duty exemption for homes valued up to $800,000, with concessions available for properties up to $1 million.

<h2>Victoria South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: Provides a $10,000 grant for first-home buyers purchasing or building new homes valued up to $750,000.

Stamp Duty Benefits: Offers full stamp duty exemption for properties up to $600,000, with concessions available up to $750,000.

<h2>Queensland First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: Offers $30,000 for contracts signed between 20 November 2023 and 30 June 2025. The FHOG applies to new homes valued up to $750,000.

Stamp Duty Concessions: Provides additional concessions for properties valued up to $800,000.

<h2>Western Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

&nbsp;

First Home Owner Grant: Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $750,000 in the southern regions and up to $1 million in the northern regions.

Stamp Duty Concessions: Available for homes valued up to $600,000 for transactions entered into on or after 9 May 2024.

<h2>Australian Capital Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: Replaced by the Home Buyer Concession Scheme, offering full stamp duty concessions for eligible buyers.

<h2>South Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: Provides up to $15,000 for new homes, including houses, apartments, and townhouses. As of 6 June 2024, there is no property value cap for eligibility.

Stamp Duty Relief: Available for new homes and vacant land purchases.

<h2>Tasmania First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes and off the plan purchases.

Stamp Duty Exemption: Between 18 February 2024 and 30 June 2026, first home buyers of established homes valued up to $750,000 receive a full exemption on property transfer duty.

<h2>Northern Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: The Northern Territory provides a $10,000 grant for new homes only. Additional government grants and concessions are available for first home buyers.

Stamp Duty Exemption: The only stamp duty exemption available to property buyers is the House and Land Package Exemption (HLPE).

Eligibility criteria and application processes differ across states. Prospective buyers should refer to their respective state revenue offices for full details on grant availability, conditions, and additional concessions.

Every First Home Owner Grant for new property by state

In the ever-evolving landscape of sustainable architecture and environmentally conscious design, systems and ratings in place can help determine the energy efficiency of residential buildings in Australia.

Australia has multiple building rating systems that evaluate energy efficiency and sustainability in existing and new building designs.

Some systems assess individual building components, while others provide an overall rating for the entire structure.

A rating system ensures that homes are comfortable and energy-efficient, whether you are buying, renovating, or building.

NatHERS (Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme) is a common way for new homes to meet energy efficiency requirements.

As new developments continue to shape the urban environment, understanding NatHERS ratings becomes essential for developers and homeowners. This article delves into the concept of NatHERS ratings, their significance, and how they contribute to creating energy-efficient homes.

<h2>What is NatHERS?</h2>

NatHERS is a national initiative implemented by the Australian government to promote energy efficiency in residential buildings. The scheme aims to provide a standardised method for assessing the thermal performance of homes, considering factors such as insulation, orientation, ventilation, and building materials.&nbsp;

NatHERS ratings are the most common way new homes meet the National Construction Code's (NCC's) minimum energy efficiency requirements.&nbsp;

NatHERS assessments provide thermal and whole-home ratings for new homes, townhouses, and apartments.

The rating helps evaluate the energy performance of buildings, guides homeowners and developers to make informed decisions about the energy efficiency of their properties, and encourages the construction of more sustainable, comfortable, and cost-effective homes.

<h2>How NatHERS Ratings Work</h2>

NatHERS ratings are determined through four accredited software tools (AccuRate, BERS Pro, FirstRate5, HERO) using a calculation engine CSIRO developed to predict building temperature based on various factors.

The tools can model complex effects of building mass, insulation, window size, and other elements.

The outcome is a star rating that reflects the building's overall thermal efficiency, indicating how well it can maintain a comfortable indoor temperature without excessive reliance on heating or cooling systems.

The star rating scale ranges from 0 to 10, with a 6-star rating being the minimum requirement for compliance with the National Construction Code (NCC).&nbsp;

Achieving a higher star rating demonstrates a commitment to energy efficiency and sustainability, as the building is better equipped to minimise its environmental impact and reduce long-term energy costs.

Anyone can use NatHERS tools, but accredited assessors can provide certified ratings and professional advice.

<h2>Benefits of Higher NatHERS Ratings</h2>

Energy Efficiency: Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings are more energy-efficient, requiring less heating and cooling energy. This reduces the structure's carbon footprint and lowers occupants' energy bills.

Cost Savings: Homes with higher NatHERS ratings are generally more energy-efficient, resulting in reduced energy consumption for heating and cooling. This translates to lower energy bills for homeowners, making sustainable living environmentally friendly and economically viable in the long run.

Environmental Impact: Lower energy consumption directly translates to a reduced environmental impact. Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings contribute to the overall goal of mitigating climate change by lowering greenhouse gas emissions associated with heating and cooling systems.

Improved Comfort: Buildings with high NatHERS ratings offer better thermal comfort to occupants. Proper insulation, well-designed ventilation, and optimal orientation maintain a consistent and comfortable indoor temperature, providing occupants with a more enjoyable and healthier space.

Market Value and Desirability: Higher NatHERS ratings can enhance the market value of a property. As energy efficiency becomes a more significant consideration for homebuyers, a well-rated building may attract a premium price and stand out in the real estate market.

Compliance with Building Codes: NatHERS ratings are a vital component of the National Construction Code (NCC), and compliance with these ratings is often a mandatory requirement for new developments. Local councils and planning authorities may set minimum energy efficiency standards that must be met to obtain development approval.

The Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme (NatHERS) is a crucial initiative shaping the future of energy-efficient, resilient, and cost-effective homes. With its recent upgrades, NatHERS has evolved into a world-leading tool for the building sector, supporting the global commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Staff Writer

What is a NatHERS rating in new off the plan apartment developments?

Mixed-use developments have gained significant popularity across Australia in recent years due to their unique blend of residential, commercial, and recreational spaces.

Unlike traditional single-purpose developments, mixed-use projects offer a harmonious integration of various functions within a single locale.

Residential units seamlessly coexist with commercial establishments, retail outlets, dining venues, entertainment hubs, and recreational facilities, with the combination not only enhances convenience but also fosters a vibrant lifestyle and a sense of community.

<h3>Convenience and accessibility</h3>

Mixed-use developments are designed with convenience in mind. They often integrate residential units with commercial spaces, retail outlets, restaurants, and recreational facilities, creating a self-contained community.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114215 project_image_fid=204874]

The proximity allows residents to enjoy the convenience of having essential amenities and services within walking distance. Whether it's grabbing a cup of coffee, going grocery shopping, or accessing healthcare services, everything is conveniently located, saving residents time and effort.

<h3>Vibrant lifestyle and community</h3>

One of the major advantages of mixed-use developments is the vibrant lifestyle they offer. With a diverse range of amenities and communal spaces, residents have ample opportunities to interact, socialise, and build a sense of community.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107714 project_image_fid=214122]

The presence of parks, community centres, and shared spaces fosters a lively atmosphere, encouraging residents to engage in various activities and events. The vibrant lifestyle within these developments creates a unique sense of belonging and camaraderie among the residents.

<h3>Potential for higher rental yields and property value appreciation</h3>

Mixed-use developments tend to attract a broad range of tenants and buyers due to their versatile nature. This high demand can result in higher rental yields for investors and potentially lead to property value appreciation over time.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=212887]

The integration of commercial and retail spaces attracts businesses, which can provide a stable rental income stream. Additionally, the popularity of mixed-use developments often drives up property values, making them a potentially lucrative investment in the long term.

<h3>Enhanced security and maintenance</h3>

Mixed-use developments typically have comprehensive security measures in place. With controlled access points, CCTV surveillance, and professional security staff, residents can enjoy enhanced safety and peace of mind.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108019 project_image_fid=212658]

Additionally, these developments often have dedicated maintenance teams responsible for the upkeep of common areas, landscaping, and infrastructure. This ensures that the overall appearance and functionality of the development are well-maintained, creating a pleasant living environment for residents.

<h3>Live-work-play balance</h3>

One of the key attractions of mixed-use developments is the ability to achieve a desirable live-work-play balance. The integration of residential and commercial spaces allows residents to live closer to their workplaces, reducing commuting time and improving work-life balance.

The proximity to various amenities and recreational facilities encourages an active and healthy lifestyle. Residents can easily access fitness centres, parks, restaurants, and entertainment options, all within the same development, leading to a more fulfilling and convenient way of life.

alisonwarters@gmail.com

The top five reasons to buy in a mixed-use development

When buying a property, everyone needs to be aware of the additional costs that come as part of the buying process.

Often the largest outlay, after the deposit which goes to the bank, is stamp duty.

<h2 style="line-height: 1.38;">What is Stamp Duty?</h2>

Stamp duty is an extra tax to pay the government when you buy land, a property, and other certain assets.

It happens when the legal ownership is transferred. It can also be known as property transfer duty or transfer duty.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="415" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/C32BWkB5--c" title="YouTube video player" width="660"></iframe>

<h2>Who pays Stamp Duty?</h2>

In some circumstances, you may get an exemption. For some states, you won’t have to pay for stamp duty if you are a first home buyer or a pensioner for houses under a particular price. There are also stamp duty concessions, where you may be entitled to a discount.

<h2>How much does Stamp Duty cost?</h2>

Each state has different rules which affect how much you need to pay. These rules can affect the rate you pay, and the timeframe you will need to pay in. Before you buy land or a property, make sure you check the up-to-date information for your state’s stamp duty.

You can use a free stamp duty calculator online to see approximately how much you’ll need to pay. Find out if you’re eligible for an exemption by enquiring on a project via Urban!

Overall, the stamp duty you need to pay will depend on:

<ul>
	<li aria-level="1">How much your land/property is worth</li>
	<li aria-level="1">Where your land/property is located</li>
	<li aria-level="1">What type of land/property it is</li>
</ul>

Want to find out more? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@UrbanAustralia?utm_source=YouTube&amp;utm_medium=Video&amp;utm_campaign=Subscribe&amp;utm_id=Subscribe">Subscribe to our YouTube channel</a> for more property videos.

Ellen Walker

Off-the-plan property explained: What is stamp duty?

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

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The national residential rental vacancy rate remained stable at 2.1 per cent over the month of November, SQM Research revealed Tuesday.  

The month of November ended with the total number of vacancies Australia-wide now at 78,879, with the vacancy rate slightly below the same time last year at 2.2 per cent.

Capital city vacancy rates remained stable over the month, with the exception of Sydney and Brisbane, which recorded a 0.1 per cent and 0.2 per cent decrease, respectively.

Sydney saw a minor decrease from 3.6 per cent in October to 3.5 per cent in November.

Melbourne’s vacancy rate – the highest in the nation – remained at 4.4 per cent in November. This time last year, Melbourne’s vacancy rate was at a low 2.2 per cent.

The surplus of rental property is most acute in Melbourne and Sydney’s CBDs, with Melbourne’s vacancy rate standing at 9.1 per cent.

Sydney CBD vacancy rate peaked at 16.2 per cent in May 2020 but has declined to 9.5 per cent in November.

<table border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" style="width:500px;"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>City</td>
			<td>NOV 2019 Vacancies</td>
			<td>NOV 2019 Vacancy Rate</td>
			<td>OCT 2020 Vacancies</td>
			<td>OCT 2020 Vacancy Rate</td>
			<td>NOV 2020 Vacancies</td>
			<td>NOV 2020 Vacancy Rate</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sydney</td>
			<td>24,258</td>
			<td>3.4%</td>
			<td>26,455</td>
			<td>3.6%</td>
			<td>26,161</td>
			<td>3.5%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>Melbourne</td>
			<td>12,963</td>
			<td>2.2%</td>
			<td>27,070</td>
			<td>4.4%</td>
			<td>26,946</td>
			<td>4.4%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>Brisbane</td>
			<td>8,629</td>
			<td>2.5%</td>
			<td>6,912</td>
			<td>2.0%</td>
			<td>6,455</td>
			<td>1.8%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>Perth</td>
			<td>5,200</td>
			<td>2.5%</td>
			<td>1,936</td>
			<td>0.9%</td>
			<td>1,835</td>
			<td>0.9%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>Adelaide</td>
			<td>1,896</td>
			<td>1.0%</td>
			<td>1,501</td>
			<td>0.8%</td>
			<td>1,543</td>
			<td>0.8%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>Canberra</td>
			<td>756</td>
			<td>1.1%</td>
			<td>608</td>
			<td>0.9%</td>
			<td>601</td>
			<td>0.9%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>Darwin</td>
			<td>981</td>
			<td>3.1%</td>
			<td>217</td>
			<td>0.7%</td>
			<td>233</td>
			<td>0.7%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>Hobart</td>
			<td>159</td>
			<td>0.5%</td>
			<td>204</td>
			<td>0.6%</td>
			<td>192</td>
			<td>0.6%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>National</td>
			<td>75,947</td>
			<td>2.2%</td>
			<td>74,221</td>
			<td>2.1%</td>
			<td>72,879</td>
			<td>2.1%</td>
		</tr>
</tbody></table>
Asking Rents

Over the month, capital city average asking rents increased 0.4 per cent for houses but decreased 0.2 per cent for units for the week ending December 12, to record asking rents of $540 per week for houses and $408 per week for units.

Most capital cities recorded increases in both house and unit asking rents.

Darwin recorded the highest increase of 6.7 per cent over the month for houses and 4.3 per cent in unit asking rents, followed by Hobart which recorded a 6.4 per cent increase in house rents and 3.3 per cent increase in unit rents.

Melbourne, however, recorded declines in both house and unit asking rents over the month of 0.1 per cent and 1.4 per cent respectively.

Sydney and Canberra recorded rental increases in houses of 0.9 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively, but a decline in unit rents of 0.6 per cent and 1.2 per cent.

<a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/sqm-research-december-15.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="448" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/sqm-research-december-15.jpg?itok=L5VVfE-V" width="580"></a>

"Rents for units in our two largest cities are still falling, though I note there appears to be a commencement of a reversal in the abundance of listings in the CBD’s of these two cities. They are still very elevated. But we could be starting to see some of the population moving back to the CBD and inner city locations”, SQM’s Louis Christopher said.
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The national residential rental vacancy rate remained stable at 2.1 per cent over the month of November, SQM Research revealed

max.kwok_55688

National rental vacancy rate remains stable: SQM Research

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At the RBA's December 2020 meeting, the members noted that conditions in the domestic housing market were improving, but were uneven.

"Regional housing prices had increased by more than those in capital cities since the onset of the pandemic", RBA Governor Philip Lowe's meeting minutes read.

They highlighted the variation in changes in housing prices across the capitals, with Sydney and Melbourne markets more subdued than elsewhere in the country.

Lowe said that, within Sydney and Melbourne in particular, conditions in the detached housing market were firmer than for higher-density markets.

"Overall, national housing prices had increased only a little since the outbreak of the pandemic," Lowe stated.

They focused on the slowdown in population growth impacting the housing market nationally as a result of the closure of international borders.

"This had been more consequential in Australia than in many other economies," Lowe advised, saying that it has impacted the rental market in particular, with rents falling and rental vacancy rates in inner-city Sydney and Melbourne around their highest levels in many years."

Lowe touched on the strong growth in New Zealand housing markets, with population growth, expat buying interest and an earlier easing in lending standards.

"By comparison, these factors had been less relevant in Australia and, partly as a result, the increase in housing prices in Australia this year had been considerably smaller than in a number of other advanced economies."
</body></html>

Conditions in the domestic housing market improving, but uneven: RBA's December 2020 meeting minutes

Insights into RBA December 2020 decision: RBA Minutes

<html><body>
Unit rents in Sydney and Melbourne continue to fall reflecting continued high vacancy rates notably in inner city and CBD markets that are under pressure from sharply reduced demand and surging supply particularly from previous holiday accommodation now converting to the permanent market. Conversely house rents are on the rise Indicating perhaps Increased demand for larger, outer suburban homes.

Sydney average asking rents for units fell by 2.3% over November but rents for houses Increased sharply by 2.5%. Perth rents continue to rise for both houses and units. Capital city rental markets continue to report diverging results with significantly lower and falling vacancy rates for houses offset by higher rates for units. This reflects sharply falling demand and increased supply of units - particularly in inner-city Sydney and CBD Melbourne.

HOUSE AND UNIT RENTAL VACANCY RATES 

Reflecting rent declines In the unit market, vacancy rates continue to Increase In Melbourne and Sydney - remaining at record levels. Vacancy rates for houses are significantly lower in all capitals by comparison with units and likely to continue to place upward pressure on rents.

HOME LOANS 

ABS home lending data reported another Increase over October with owner-occupier loans continuing at unprecedented levels. Total residential lending increased by 1.1% over October and has risen by 16.8% over the first 10 months of this year compared to the same period In 2019. All buyer types reported increases over October however, remarkably, lending for first home buyers now exceeds that reported for Investors. All states, with the exception of Victoria reported Increases In the total value of housing loans approved over October. Similarly, only Victoria failed to record an Increases In first home buyer lending over October, falling by 5.9%.

Although lending for first home buyers has surged this year driven by numerous state and federal government Incentive policies, levels remain well below those recorded during the post GFC revival period In 2009-10. Lending for new home building continues to be a significant contributor to the recent surge In home lending reflecting In particular the Impact of the recently extended federal government HomeBuilder policy.  Victoria continues to clearly record the highest number of loans for home building followed by QLD and WA.

HOME BUILDING 

The surge In lending for home building Is also been reflected In rising house building activity over recent months. Latest ABS building approvals for October were however lower in Sydney and Melbourne over the month but significantly higher In Brisbane and sharply higher In Perth.  Despite recent rises In home building approvals, underling levels, particularly for units, remain well below previous peak levels.
</body></html>

Unit rents in Sydney and Melbourne continue to fall reflecting continued high vacancy rates notably in inner city and CBD markets, according to Archistar's Chief Economist Andrew Wilson.

urban.com.au

Unit rents continue to fall across Melbourne and Sydney

<html><body>
Auction activity rose last week with a total of 2,536 homes taken to auction across the national capital cities.

It was up on the 2,085 auctions held the prior week with around 74 percent selling under the hammer.

Over 1,000 homes were taken to auction across both Melbourne and Sydney over the week, the busiest week the cities have seen since early April.

Typically auction markets would be winding down after the second week of December, however this year auction activity is set to remain high leading into the festive period, with around 2,300 auctions to be held over the coming week, Tim Lawless the head of research at CoreLogic advised.

The priciest of the pre-Christmas weekend listings was in Dolans Bay in Sydney (pictured main) which saw the preliminary clearance rate at 76.5 per cent.

The nation's cheapest sale was a $290,000 one bedroom apartment at Tullamarine in Melbourne which saw a preliminary clearance rate of 73.5 per cent, compared with a preliminary rate of 73.6 per cent a week earlier, which was revised down to 67.7 per cent after collection of the final results.

Across the smaller markets, Canberra recorded the highest preliminary clearance rate of 87 percent across 113 auctions, followed by Adelaide with 76 percent success across 96 results.

Adelaide saw a $3.9 million trophy home sale through South Australia Sotheby’s agent Grant Giordano who after marketing the home for the past year decided to go to auction given increased competitive interest.

It was initially scheduled for the weekend when Adelaide went into lockdown last month.

The Adelaide Hills home, designed by architecture firm Woods Bagot to curve into the landscape, was built in 2013, with a pool and tennis court in its 2.6 hectare grounds.

It won the South Australia Institute of Architects award in the new home category.

It sold to an international buyer with permanent residency.

The final weekend before Christmas sees about 2300 auctions scheduled with 1350 being in Melbourne.
</body></html>

Auction activity rose last week with a total of 2,537 homes taken to auction across the national capital cities

jchancellor

Sydney and Melbourne weekend auctions busiest since April

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER

The greatest fiction generated in mainstream media in 2020 is that prices have risen because we have record low interest rates.

In March/April economists and others were lining up to predict a collapse in residential property values because of the pandemic impact. Some forecast price decline as large as 20% to 30%.

Four or five months later, the usual suspects were lining up again to “revise” their forecasts. They were forced to admit they got it wrong and were now predicting much more bullish outcomes for dwelling values. Some of the bank economists are now expecting boom-level price growth in 2021.

Asked to explain why prices have held up so well, the standard answer is “record low interest rates” - a response that shows how little they know about house markets. We entered the pandemic period with record low interest rates and very little has changed.

Those who have recently explained everything real estate with the cheap cost of finance include AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver, Domain analyst Nicola Powell, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe, ABC business editor Ian Verrender, NAB chief economist Alan Oster and economists speaking on behalf of ANZ, Westpac and the CBA.

The “record low interest rates” rationale is the go-to response for pontificators who have limited knowledge of residential property dynamics.

When Sydney and Melbourne were having their price booms from 2013 to 2017, the standard explanation from economists was “record low interest rates”. They were unable to explain why prices were falling at the same time in Perth and Darwin, and stagnating in other capital cities like Brisbane and Adelaide.

Record low interest rates were still very much in place when the two biggest cities experienced their post-boom correction, with prices falling in 2018 and the first half of 2019.

When markets generally picked up in the second half of 2019, economists again rolled out their interest-rates arguments, ignoring the impact of the multiple other events that jointly had a huge impact, including the Federal Election result, the relaxation of lending rules by APRA and the announcement of tax cuts.

So now we have most markets rising, regardless of the pandemic-induced short recession, and record-low interest rates are again the standard answer. But little had changed with mortgage rates - the RBA has shaved a miniscule 0.15 of a percentage point off the official cash rate, but this hasn’t had any noticeable impact on the mortgage rates that typical home owners and investors are paying.

And it beggars belief that Australian consumers have only recently noticed that finance is cheap. It’s been the case for years.

I would also point out that the last two times Australia had genuine nationwide property booms - in the late 1980s and in the early year of this century - on both occasions mortgage rates were high and rising.

History shows we’re more likely to have a genuine national boom in periods when rates are high, because it means the economy is booming, consumers are spending and the people who pull the levers are trying to dampen things down (and usually not succeeding) by lifting the official interest rate.

In the late 1980s and during the 2001-02-03 boom, they kept putting up interest rates and the property booms raged on.

Right now interest rates are low because the economy is struggling - a time when people are less likely to be bullish and spending big on real estate.

So, given that interest rates are clearly not an acceptable explanation, why have property markets held up so well in 2020?

As with all things in real estate, there are many different factors working in unison.

The national economy was been stronger than predicted. The recession was muted and lasted only one quarter. Unemployment did not go into double digits as economists predicted. More importantly, many local economies have been strong through the pandemic period.

With the exception of Melbourne, most of the nation got the virus under control early and it’s been busy as usual, apart from the closure of state borders.

Many Australians have sought the safety and solidity of bricks and mortar. Various surveys have shown that consumers have rated residential real estate highly as an asset class in 2020 – and it has not disappointed them.

Government stimulus measures and support from lenders has made a big difference. Support was not switched off at the end of September (economists got that prediction wrong as well) and continues to have an impact.

First-home buyers have been highly active, boosted by record levels of government aid.

Vacancy rates are ultra-low in most locations, putting upward pressure on rents and prices.

The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle, the most powerful trend estate rend this century, is driving strong demand in regional markets and the smaller capital cities.

Expats returning home to the relative safety of Australia have more than compensated for the absence of overseas migrants coming into the country.

The combination of all those factors have allowed housing markets to resist the negative forces of the pandemic and to not only survive but thrive in 2020.

It’s put residential real estate in a strong position heading into the New Year.

Stand by for the infrastructure-led property boom in 2021.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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The last two times Australia had genuine nationwide property booms - in the late 1980s and in the early year of this century - on both occasions mortgage rates were high and rising



terryryder

Record low interest rates not the reason the housing market didn't collapse: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER

When the government’s <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/review/retirement-income-review/TOR">retirement incomes review</a> of which I was a part examined superannuation, the age pension and voluntary savings, home ownership had a surprisingly important role.

The home is the largest form of voluntary saving and is far more entwined with super and the pension than might be thought, with threads that travel from homeownership to access to the pension, from homeownership to the size of the pension, and from superannuation to homeownership.

<h2>Homeownership keeps pension costs low</h2>

At present, about 76% of retirees own the homes they live in, about 12% rent and a further 11% either live rent-free with family or are in residential care or another arrangement.

<figure class="align-right zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374112/original/file-20201210-14-tfvimx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" sizes=" 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374112/original/file-20201210-14-tfvimx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374112/original/file-20201210-14-tfvimx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=971&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374112/original/file-20201210-14-tfvimx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=971&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374112/original/file-20201210-14-tfvimx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=971&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374112/original/file-20201210-14-tfvimx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=1220&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374112/original/file-20201210-14-tfvimx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=1220&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374112/original/file-20201210-14-tfvimx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=1220&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w"></a>

<figcaption>Retired Australians have been unusually likely to own the homes in which they live.</figcaption></figure>This is an unusually high rate of homeownership by international standards that not only benefits individuals but the public purse.

It lowers age pensioners’ living expenses and lowers the required size of the pension.

At 2.4% of gross domestic product, Australia has one of the lowest-cost age pension schemes in the OECD.

But there are indications that homeownership is on the decline.

People are entering the workforce, marrying, forming households and buying their first home later in life.

Between 1981 and 2016 the average age at which Australians purchased a home climbed from 24 to 33.

As a consequence, the average age at which mortgages were paid out climbed from 52 to 62.

Now, one in every ten retired Australians enters retirement with a mortgage.

<h2>Wealth tied up in homes escapes the assets test</h2>

As wealth tied up in housing is exempt from the age pension assets test, it is for many people a preferred form of retirement saving.

At present, around 15% of age pensioners live in homes valued at more than A$1 million, although these figures partly reflect Sydney and Melbourne property prices which have escalated over recent years.

These retirees are often “asset rich and income poor”, having chosen to store their wealth in an asset that doesn’t pay income.

They do well out of the pension. One fifth of age pension expenditure goes to the wealthiest two fifths of retirees.

<h2>Non-homeowners live poorly</h2>

Non-homeowners, on the other hand, are among those most likely to experience poverty in retirement.

Commonwealth Rent Assistance helps with the rent of those reliant on the pension and other payments and is much more targeted than the pension, with 90% going to the poorest fifth of retirees.

But the indexation of rent assistance payments to the consumer price index instead of rents for more than three decades has eroded their value to the point where they now cover less than half the rental costs of the people who get them.

Boosting rent assistance would help, but it is only part of the solution.

<hr>
Income poverty rates of retirees

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374098/original/file-20201210-15-u79lct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" sizes=" 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374098/original/file-20201210-15-u79lct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374098/original/file-20201210-15-u79lct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=263&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374098/original/file-20201210-15-u79lct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=263&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374098/original/file-20201210-15-u79lct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=263&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374098/original/file-20201210-15-u79lct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=331&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374098/original/file-20201210-15-u79lct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=331&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374098/original/file-20201210-15-u79lct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=331&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w"></a>

<figcaption>Retirement Incomes Review, <a class="source" href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1371/Retirement_Incomes_Review_notes.pdf?1607569573">notes</a></figcaption></figure><hr>
Other parts of the solution include increasing the supply and affordability of housing, creating a market in longer-term rental contracts, and boosting access to public housing, outside the terms of the review.

<h2>Super supports home ownership</h2>

Super gets diverted into financing homeownership in three ways.

First, voluntary contributions can be <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/Individuals/Super/Withdrawing-and-using-your-super/First-Home-Super-Saver-Scheme/">redrawn</a> by first homebuyers for the purpose of a home deposit, for a sum of up to $15,000 from any one year and up to up to a maximum of $30,000 plus earnings across all years.

<figure class="align-right zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374121/original/file-20201210-15-3dwmaw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" sizes=" 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374121/original/file-20201210-15-3dwmaw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374121/original/file-20201210-15-3dwmaw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=971&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374121/original/file-20201210-15-3dwmaw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=971&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374121/original/file-20201210-15-3dwmaw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=971&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374121/original/file-20201210-15-3dwmaw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=1220&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374121/original/file-20201210-15-3dwmaw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=1220&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374121/original/file-20201210-15-3dwmaw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=1220&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w"></a>

<figcaption>Super encourages people to borrow.</figcaption></figure>For couples, this can provide up to $60,000 plus earnings to buy a house.

Second, retirees can make a <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/Individuals/Super/Growing-your-super/Adding-to-your-super/Downsizing-contributions-into-superannuation/">downsizer contribution</a> into their super fund of up to $300,000 per person from the proceeds of selling one home to buy another. Such contributions don’t count towards their super contributions caps.

The third way in which super is financing home ownership is the increasing tendency for people to use their super payouts on retirement to pay out their mortgages.

In addition there is what’s known as the “wealth effect”, a phenomenon seen in contributory pension systems around the world.

Research conducted for the review found that increasing compulsory super balances increase household wealth and provide a degree of <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1372/What_is_the_relationship_between_voluntary_savings_and_changes_to_the_SG_Ummul_Ruthbah_and_Nga_Pham?1607572962">confidence</a> for households to increase debt to invest in property, knowing that superannuation savings can be accessed to extinguish debt in the future and that the residential home is not counted in the age pension assets test.

<hr>
Read more: <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-matters-is-the-home-review-finds-most-retirees-well-off-some-very-badly-off-150465">What matters is the home: review finds most retirees well off, some very badly off</a> 

<hr>
Over a four-year period, it was found that a $1 contribution to compulsory super increased net household wealth by $2.51, through an increase in super wealth of $1.51 plus an increase in housing wealth of $1.21, offset by a 51 cent decline in non-super, non-housing savings.

In each of these ways super makes a contribution to homeownership. The review did not conclude there was a case for allowing further withdrawals from super to enable it to more.

<h2>Homes can contribute to retirement incomes</h2>

For typical homeowner at retirement, home equity represents about two to three times as much of their wealth as does super.

It ought to make accessing the equity in the home through a schemes such as the government’s <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/pension-loans-scheme">Pension Loans Scheme</a> attractive.

As an example, drawing down $5,000 each year against the equity in a $500,000 home would eat into only a quarter of its value by the time retiree reached 92.

Consumer protections around the pension loans scheme and other reverse mortgage products limit loan to value ratios, ensure that retirees have guaranteed occupancy and can’t run up negative equity in their homes.

<h2>It’s time to use them</h2>

These schemes are at last becoming more popular, perhaps in part to the growing proportion of lifetime income tied up in homes, a figure that has grown from about 6% in the mid 1990s to around 16% for homes bought today.

Homes are a critical part of the retirement system. They are not only a place to live, but are a substantial part of householder wealth and should be considered when planning retirement income. Especially for those older Australians who have not had the benefit of higher superannuation contributions over their working lives.

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/deborah-ralston-107436">Deborah Ralston</a>, Professorial fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/home-ownership-and-super-are-far-more-entwined-than-you-might-think-151693">original article</a>.
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The home is the largest form of voluntary saving and is far more entwined with super and the pension than might be thought

Home ownership and super are far more entwined than you might think

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The combined capital cities are expected to see auction activity ramp up over the week, with a total of 2,593 properties set to go under the hammer, according to CoreLogic data. This week’s scheduled volumes are 24% higher than last week’s final figures which saw 2,085 auctions held. Plus this time last year, a higher 2,804 homes were taken to auction across the combined capitals.

There are over 1,000 homes set to be taken to auction across each of Australia’s two largest auction markets this week. Melbourne is expected to be the busier of the two with 1,153 properties scheduled for auction, an increase of 28% on last week. Sydney isn’t far behind with a total of 1,037 auctions scheduled to take place, an expected rise of almost 20%.

While activity across Melbourne has certainly bounced back from the lows seen throughout most of the second half of the year, volumes are still below 2019 levels with 1,405 homes taken to auction over the same week last year. Meanwhile one year ago in Sydney, volumes were lower at 875.

The remaining smaller markets are all expected to see a rise in activity over the week, with Brisbane set to be the busiest of the smaller cities with 147 auctions scheduled to take place. This is followed by Canberra (115), Adelaide (101), Perth (36) and Tasmania (4).

One example of a property headed to auction in Melbourne this weekend is an apartment at 705/547-551 Flinders Lane. The one-bedroom, one-bathroom apartment in Docklands sits on the top floor of Morgan Place. It goes to auction with a guide of between $291,000 and $320,000.

The apartment sits near the Docklands project Melbourne Quarter at 628 Flinders Street, developed by Lendlease. The Fender Katsalidis-designed East Tower has 719 apartments, a mix of one and two bedrooms which are for sale starting from $458,000. 
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There are over 1,000 homes set to be taken to auction across each of Australia’s two largest auction markets this week.

Auction volumes up 20% or more across Melbourne and Sydney 

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
Regional NSW is showing nation-leading strength, with a record number of towns and suburbs recording growth in their sales activity in our new quarterly survey.

A total of 116 locations have rising markets, easily the highest number in the six years that Hotspotting has been conducting its quarterly surveys. The previous best were 70 growth locations in a mid-2018 survey and 77 late in 2019.

The results show evidence of the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend which is sweeping the nation, with growth markets right across the state but most noticeably in locations close to Sydney.

The No.1 market, by a considerable margin, is the Central Coast. As the closest sea change market to Sydney, this market is getting significant uplift from the Exodus trend. There are 17 suburbs with rising sales activity and we expect strong price growth in the near future.

South of Sydney, the Wollongong, Shoalhaven and Shellharbour LGA jointly have 10 suburbs with upwardly-mobile markets.

Hill change markets within striking distance of Sydney are also rising, including the Blue Mountains (where four locations have rising sales activity) and the Southern Highlands (with five towns in the Wingecarribee LGA having upward sales momentum – refer below for data on price growth).

The Queanbeyan-Palerang LGA just outside Canberra is also thriving – it has five locations with rising sales activity. Nearby Goulburn is also a growth market.

The data for Newcastle is somewhat muted – it has only five growth suburbs, which is a small number for a city of its size in the current circumstances.

But neighbouring municipalities are doing better: Lake Macquarie has six growth suburbs, while Hunter Valley LGAs like Maitland, Cessnock, Singleton and Muswellbrook jointly have seven growth locations – with the Maitland LGA the standout.

The growth momentum has now spread further afield, with strength evident in markets like Orange, Bathurst, Dubbo, Armidale, Tamworth, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Albury and Wagga Wagga.

The strategic regional cities of Tamworth and Wagga Wagga both have five suburbs with rising sales activity.

In the Eurobodalla LGA on the state’s south coast, there is growth impetus in Malua Bay, Moruya and Tuross Head.

In terms of price performance, Regional NSW has done well in the past 12 months but in particular in the latest quarter.

Two-thirds of locations across Regional NSW have recorded growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months, but eight out ten have recorded uplift in the most recent quarter.

This indicates that the regional areas of the state have had an uplift in price performance recently, with the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle a major influence.

The outcomes in annual terms include 67% of locations with apartment markets recording increases in their median unit prices and 65% of locations also having increases in median house prices.

Multiple locations have delivered double-digit increases in their median house prices over the past 12 months.

The Southern Highlands region south of Sydney is a standout. Median prices are up strongly in Bowral (23%), Burradoo (13%) and Mittagong (10%), boosted by the trend of people relocating from the big cities to lifestyle locations.

Parts of the Wollongong market are showing signs of benefiting from the trend, with Bulli up 13% and Thirroul up 18%. The Central Coast is a natural beneficiary also and several suburbs have delivered strong rises, including Umina Beach (10%) and Wyong (15%).

Ballina is also doing well, with annual median price increases in the suburbs of Ballina (15%), East Ballina (10%) and West Ballina (12%). Further north, locations in Tweed Shire are rising, including Kingscliff (12%) and Murwillumbah (10%).

In the far south of the state, the Wagga Wagga region continues to be a strongly-performing market, with median house prices rising in Lake Albert (11%), Mt Austin (11%) and Wagga Wagga (14%).

Growth markets are sprinkled throughout the regional areas of the state and across different price ranges. They include Caves Beach (up 11% to $870,000), Corowa (up 11% to $265,000), Inverell (up 11% to $290,000), Kyogle (up 12% to $300,000), Maitland (up 15% to $460,000), Malua Bay (up 24% to $640,000), South Grafton (up 12% to $280,000), Windradyne (up 11% to $460,000), Yass (up 18% to $500,000) and Young (up 11% to $310,000).

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au 
ryder@hotspotting.com.au 
twitter.com/hotspotting 
 
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Regional NSW property market showing nation-leading strength: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER

2020 didn’t exactly turn out the way I or many expected a year ago. For Australia, the year started badly as severe drought had given way to the worst bushfires on record. But just as the bushfires were receding it gave way to the coronavirus pandemic. Every year has a big surprise - or what Dr Don Stammer has long called Factor X - but they don’t usually have such a profound impact as the coronavirus pandemic has.

- It caused a massive health crisis claiming at least 1.5 million lives, with many countries seeing at least two waves.

- It kept many confined to their homes and shut down big chunks of economies, driving the biggest fall in economic activity since the end of WW2 if not the Great Depression, with major economies seeing peak to trough falls in GDP of 10% to 20% and the Australian economy contracting by 7.3%. This saw unemployment surge and inflation plunge.

- Share markets had 35% or so plunges in February/March, commodity prices collapsed with the oil price going negative at one point as investors sought out safe havens like bonds.

- And it, or rather the poor management of it, lost President Trump the US election (even though he denies losing).

The pandemic also increased tensions with China and is likely to leave a longer term mark with a further set back to globalisation, more social tensions, bigger government and public debt, the risk that massive money printing eventually results in higher inflation, faster structural change due to an accelerated embrace of technology, more consumer caution and a lower population in Australia due to the hit to immigration.

However, while 2020 is a year many of us would prefer to forget and coronavirus continues to wreak havoc in much of the world, the end result for economies hasn’t been as bad as had been feared back in March and April. This reflected a combination of:

- An unprecedented and rapid fiscal stimulus that protected businesses, jobs and incomes;

- Debt forbearance schemes that headed off defaults;

- Massive monetary stimulus that saw interest rates plunge;

- Social distancing which has helped contain the virus enabling some reopening – albeit better in some countries (eg, Asia, Australia and New Zealand) than others.

This enabled economic activity to bounce back faster than expected through the second half as restrictions eased, even though it wasn’t always smooth (eg, in Victoria or in Europe and the US) and we still have a way to go to full recovery. As a result investment markets also performed far better than feared.

- While share markets plunged in March during the early stages of the pandemic, they then rebounded thanks to massive fiscal stimulus and reopening, low interest rates and bond yields that made shares cheap as well as good news on vaccines that enabled investors to look forward to further recovery in 2021.

- This all drove solid returns in global shares with Asian and US shares (which were boosted by a relatively a high exposure to IT and initially health care stocks which benefitted from the pandemic) outperforming. The more cyclical Japanese and European markets underperformed.

- Australian shares also unperformed due to the greater cyclical exposure of the Australian share market.

- Government bonds had reasonable returns as yields fell in response to central bank rate cuts and bond buying along with safe haven demand – which drove capital growth.

- Real estate investment trusts had negative returns as a result of a hit to property space demand and rents.

- It was the same story for unlisted commercial property and infrastructure, although industrial property did well.

- Home prices fell 3% around mid-year but then started to recover as low interest rates, government support measures and reopening swamped the hit to immigration, weak rental markets and higher unemployment. Houses, outer suburbs &amp; regions benefitted from “escape from the city.”

- Cash and bank term deposit returns were poor as the RBA cut the cash rate to just 0.1%.

- After a pandemic driven plunge to $US0.55 in March the $A rose reflecting higher commodity prices and a falling $US.

- Due to reasonable share returns but weak property and infrastructure returns balanced super funds have so far seen low but positive returns – but this followed a strong 2019.

<h2>2021 – recovery</h2>

Just as 2020 was dominated by the pandemic and this determined the relative performance of investment markets and stocks, 2021 is likely to be dominated by the recovery. This in turn will have a profound effect on investment markets. There are four reasons for optimism. First, massive fiscal and monetary stimulus is still feeding through economies with very high saving rates indicating pent up demand that can be spent once confidence improves, which will also help offset the wind down of some support measures like JobKeeper in Australia.

Second, the news on vaccines is positive. While uncertainties remain, by end 2021 or early 2022 there is a good chance the world will be approaching a degree of herd immunity.

Third, a new US president in Joe Biden should usher in a period of more stable and expert based policy making in what is still the world’s biggest economy. In particular, it will likely head off a return to trade wars that could have wreaked havoc in 2021.

A more diplomatic US approach to resolving differences with China could also help Australia move down a path to resolving its own differences with China.

Finally, Australia along with NZ has navigated 2020 remarkably well, controlling coronavirus far better than most comparable countries and seeing its politicians and institutions work well together. It also led to structural reforms that may help future growth (eg, property tax reform in NSW, IR reform nationally).

The combination of vaccines, policy stimulus and pent up demand is expected to see a supercharged cyclical rebound in global GDP of around 5.2% and 4.5% in Australia in 2021. This is likely to see strong double-digit rebounds in profit growth.

Inflation is likely to remain weak, reflecting still high levels of spare capacity which in turn means interest rates will remain low. While this is not good for those relying on bank interest, it benefits the household sector as a whole (with debt exceeding bank deposits) &amp; corporates, eases the servicing of high public debt levels and makes shares cheap. So, in a way we remain in the sweet spot of the investment cycle with improving growth but low rates. In Australia, the cash rate is expected to end 2021 at 0.1% but there is still a risk of more quantitative easing.

<h2>Implications for investors</h2>

Shares are at risk of a short term correction after having ran up so hard recently and 2021 is likely to see a few rough patches along the way (much like we saw in 2010 after the recovery from the GFC), but looking through the inevitable short term noise, the combination of improving global growth and low interest rates augurs well for growth assets generally in 2021. In particular, we are likely to see a continuing shift in performance away from investments that benefitted from the pandemic and lockdowns - like US shares, technology and health care stocks and bonds - to investments that will benefit from recovery - like resources, industrials, tourism stocks and financials.

- Global shares are expected to return around 8%, but expect a rotation away from growth heavy US shares to more cyclical markets in Europe, Japan and emerging countries.

- Australian shares are also likely to be relative outperformers helped by better virus control, enabling a stronger recovery in the near term, stronger stimulus, sectors like resources, industrials and financials benefitting from the rebound in growth and as investors continue to drive a search for year yield benefitting the share market as dividends are increased resulting in a 4.4% grossed up dividend yield. Expect the ASX 200 to end 2021 back around 7200.

- Ultra-low yields &amp; a capital loss from a 0.5-0.75% or so rise in yields are likely to result in negative returns from bonds.

- Unlisted commercial property and infrastructure are ultimately likely to benefit from a resumption of the search for yield but the hit to space demand and hence rents from the virus will continue to weigh on near term returns.

- Australian home prices are being boosted by record low mortgage rates, government home buyer incentives, income support measures and bank payment holidays but high unemployment, a stop to immigration and weak rental markets will likely weigh on inner city areas and units in Melbourne and Sydney. Outer suburbs, houses, smaller cities and regional areas will see stronger gains in 2021.

- Cash and bank deposits are likely to provide very poor returns, given the ultra-low cash rate of just 0.1%.

- Although the $A is vulnerable to bouts of uncertainty about coronavirus and China tensions and RBA bond buying will keep it lower than otherwise, a rising trend is still likely to around $US0.80 over the next 12 months helped by rising commodity prices and a cyclical decline in the US dollar.

<h2>What to watch?</h2>

The main things to keep an eye on in 2021 are as follows:

- Coronavirus and vaccines – problems with vaccines or their deployment could result in ongoing waves of new coronavirus cases &amp; slower recovery than we are assuming.

- US politics – a Democrat victory in Georgia’s January 5 US senate elections would risk more of a leftward tilt under Biden, although conservative Democrat senators will limit this. Trump could also try to throw a spanner in the works.

- China tensions – we expect a shift to a diplomatic approach here but there is a risk of misjudgement on either side which could start to slow our longer-term economic growth rate.

- Inflation – we are assuming it remains weak but if it rebounds faster than expected it will mean faster increases in bond yields and downward pressure on asset valuations.

- The hit to immigration in Australia – it’s hard to see 700,000 less immigrants out to mid-2023 having no impact on inner city Sydney and Melbourne property prices.

Dr Shane Oliver 
Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital
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Just as 2020 was dominated by the pandemic and this determined the relative performance of investment markets and stocks, 2021 is likely to be dominated by the recovery

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