<p data-end="309" data-start="290"><strong data-end="309" data-start="290">Article summary</strong></p>

<ul data-end="785" data-start="311">
	<li data-end="459" data-section-id="5hbcyr" data-start="311">Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at Skye Kangaroo Point, headlined by a two-storey sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm.</li>
	<li data-end="561" data-section-id="1p7lq8n" data-start="460">Early buyer interest suggests the residences could set a new Queensland apartment price record.</li>
	<li data-end="667" data-section-id="1y70z0l" data-start="562">The collection includes four move-in ready penthouses and the highly customised Skye One residence.</li>
	<li data-end="785" data-section-id="yvm0y1" data-start="668">The release caps one of Bri​sbane's most ambitious luxury apartment developments overlooking the Brisbane River.</li>
</ul>

<hr data-end="790" data-start="787" />
<p data-end="896" data-section-id="ojaazg" data-start="792">Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye by Pikos</a> development in Kangaroo Point, with early buyer interest indicating the flagship residences could eclipse every apartment sale previously recorded in Queensland.</p>

<p data-end="1358" data-start="1137">The collection crowns the luxury riverfront development with five residences, including four completed penthouses and Skye One, a two-level sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm that will be tailored to its eventual owner.</p>

<p data-end="1358" data-start="1137">[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374075]</p>

<p data-end="1577" data-start="1360">Wanting to offer a fully customisable home, Pikos is offering Skye One as a blank canvas, allowing the buyer to work alongside the developer's design team to customise the home's layout, finishes and internal spaces.</p>

<p data-end="1781" data-start="1579">The residence will feature a 247 sqm private rooftop terrace with its own swimming pool, sauna, steam room, outdoor kitchen and multiple entertaining areas overlooking the Brisbane River and CBD skyline.</p>

<p data-end="1977" data-start="1783">The remaining four penthouses have been completed and are ready for immediate occupation, each offering four bedrooms, expansive open-plan living areas, soaring ceilings and private lift access.</p>

<p data-end="1977" data-start="1783">[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374059]</p>

<p data-end="2314" data-start="1979">One of the defining features throughout the project is its use of Roman Classic Travertine, with more than 20,000 sqm of the natural stone imported from Italy after being personally selected by Pikos Group Founder and Executive Director Pedro Pikos, interior designer Julie Williamson and third-generation stone specialist Mario Caucci.</p>

<p data-end="2423" data-start="2316">Pikos said the penthouse collection represented the culmination of the company's long-term vision for Skye.</p>

<p data-end="2519" data-start="2425">"True legacy isn't measured by what we build today, but by what endures tomorrow," Pikos said.</p>

<p data-end="2688" data-start="2521">"Our ambition is to create places that become more valuable with time, enrich the lives of generations, and stand as timeless landmarks long after we've stepped away."</p>

<p data-end="2688" data-start="2521">[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374060]</p>

<p data-end="2840" data-start="2690">Williamson said the interiors were inspired by the natural character of Kangaroo Point and the Brisbane River rather than international design trends.</p>

<p data-end="2900" data-start="2842">"Materiality tells the story of a place," Williamson said.</p>

<p data-end="3105" data-start="2902">"We looked to the movement of the Brisbane River, the texture of the cliff face and the warmth of the surrounding landscape to create interiors that feel understated, enduring and unmistakably Brisbane."</p>

<p data-end="3300" data-start="3107">Positioned above the Kangaroo Point cliffs, Skye places residents within walking distance of Howard Smith Wharves, South Bank and James Street while offering uninterrupted river and city views.</p>

<p data-end="3300" data-start="3107">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=90059]</p>


Joel Robinson

Brisbane's next apartment price record? Pikos unveils Skye's exclusive penthouse collection

<p data-end="288" data-start="269"><strong data-end="288" data-start="269">Article summary</strong></p>

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289"><strong data-end="374" data-start="291">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development</strong>, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443"><strong data-end="513" data-start="445">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences</strong>, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574"><strong data-end="646" data-start="576">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project</strong>, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718"><strong data-end="787" data-start="720">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road</strong>, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<p data-end="1011" data-start="790"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.</p>

<p data-end="1296" data-start="1013">The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion</p>

<p data-end="1296" data-start="1013"><img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" /></p>

<p>The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.</p>

<p>“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."</p>

<p>Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."</p>

<p>"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”</p>

<p><img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." /></p>

<p>The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.</p>

<p>A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.</p>

<p><img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" /></p>

<p>Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.</p>

<p>“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.</p>

<p>“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.</p>

<p>“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”</p>

<p><img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" /></p>

<p>Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.</p>

<p>With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]</p>


DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

<p>A proposal to redevelop one of North Sydney's ageing commercial buildings has taken another step forward, with plans for a 38-storey mixed-use tower adding momentum to the long-awaited transformation of the Alfred Street precinct.</p>

<p>Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority-led State Significant Development pathway, the proposal for 271-273 Alfred Street would replace an underutilised commercial building with 95 apartments, ground-floor retail, commercial space and affordable housing. The proposal was submitted by&nbsp;Tara Shore Pty Ltd, acting for the John Taylor Family Trust.</p>

<p>While the project will deliver much-needed housing on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, it also represents another piece of a broader precinct that has spent years in planning limbo.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: New public domain vision underpins 95-apartment North Sydney tower on Alfred Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7e1ce1b4-38df-48ab-992f-386814d86308" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Alfred%20St%20da%20podium.png?VersionId=sC_h6w.A9VEoB98qsqowPlIoz__sBZBt" /></p>

<p>Despite its proximity to both North Sydney Station and the Victoria Cross Metro, redevelopment of Alfred Street has progressed slowly over the past decade as broader planning controls, zoning and building heights remained unresolved. The introduction of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway has provided a new avenue for projects to progress, allowing rezoning and development assessment to occur concurrently and unlocking sites that have long been earmarked for renewal.</p>

<p>Designed by Office of Cortese &amp; Gilder, the proposal seeks to do more than replace an ageing office building. The architects have positioned the project as the first stage of a wider public domain vision that would improve pedestrian connectivity and create a more cohesive mixed-use precinct as neighbouring sites are redeveloped over time.</p>

<p>The proposal includes a widened Alfred Street setback, new street trees, landscaping and outdoor seating, along with a landscaped through-site pedestrian link connecting Alfred Street with Little Alfred Street. The connection is intended to become the first section of a future east-west pedestrian network extending across the precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: New public domain vision underpins 95-apartment North Sydney tower on Alfred Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8ea39ac3-46ad-4562-b4a0-b862e91c2dda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Alfred%20St%20da%20site.png?VersionId=K7umCd21KpetEFuVfsPlnJKhUOsmTTdV" /></p>

<p>The mixed-use tower would comprise retail space at ground level, commercial uses on level two and apartments from level three upwards.</p>

<p>In total, the development would deliver 95 apartments, including nine one-bedroom, 28 two-bedroom, 56 three-bedroom and two four-bedroom residences. Twenty-one apartments, representing 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area, would be secured as affordable housing and managed by a registered community housing provider for at least 15 years.</p>

<p>Nine basement levels would provide 133 resident car spaces, seven motorcycle spaces and 111 bicycle spaces.</p>

<p>According to the Architecture and Urban Design Report, the public domain strategy is designed to transform what is currently an inward-facing commercial edge into a more active and connected pedestrian environment, creating a stronger relationship between the commercial core and surrounding residential neighbourhoods.</p>

<p>Office of Cortese &amp; Gilder has also prepared a broader public domain framework spanning neighbouring properties between 263 and 283 Alfred Street, arguing that a coordinated approach to redevelopment will deliver better public spaces, improved tower separation and a more connected streetscape as the precinct evolves.</p>

<p>The proposal comes at a time where North Sydney is slated for future residential growth. Commercial developer FiveX has residential plans for the neighbouring site at 275 Alfred Street. They've proposed a 39-storey mixed-use tower with 184 apartments, while Freecity was recently approved for nearly 300 apartments across a 51-storey building on Walker Street.</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-freecity-gets-green-light-for-mixed-use-apartment-and-hotel-tower-in-north-sydney">First look: Freecity gets green light for mixed-use apartment and hotel tower in North Sydney</a></em></p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-fivex-plans-39-storey-residential-tower-in-booming-north-sydney">First look: Fivex plans 39-storey residential tower in booming North Sydney</a></em></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Alfred Street the latest North Sydney pocket to be transformed by residential development

<p>Buyers considering a residence at boutique Gordon townhouse development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/lume-gordon-43-47-dumaresq-street-gordon-nsw-2072">Lume</a>&nbsp;now have another reason to bring forward their decision.</p>

<p>For a limited time, purchasers of a residence at Lume will receive a BMW iX3 50 electric SUV, valued at more than $120,000, as part of their purchase. The offer is designed to add value for buyers while complementing the lifestyle envisioned for the architecturally designed Upper North Shore development.</p>

<p>Scott Timmins, Development Manager at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/winim">WINIM</a>, said the partnership was created to provide buyers with a compelling reason to act.</p>

<p>"In today's market, buyers need a compelling reason to act now, and the BMW partnership was designed to create that catalyst. We wanted to add genuine value for our future purchasers. Choosing the all-electric BMW iX3 50 also reflects the values behind LUME, forward-thinking design, innovation and a more sustainable way of living. It's a premium incentive that complements the lifestyle our buyers aspire to and rewards those who commit early."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374893]</p>

<p>Delivered by WINIM in partnership with Burtonwood Investment Partners, Lume comprises 14 architecturally designed two, three and four-bedroom townhomes created for families seeking the space of a freestanding house with the ease of modern, low-maintenance living.</p>

<p>The three-storey residences, designed by award-winning architecture practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, have been tailored for families and multi-generational living, featuring private internal lifts, flexible lower-level spaces, generous open-plan living and entertaining areas, media rooms, and landscaped outdoor spaces with custom outdoor kitchens.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Inside, engineered oak flooring, bespoke dining joinery with integrated wine fridges and backlit bars, sculptural porcelain bathrooms, Parisi freestanding baths and Astra Walker tapware create interiors that balance functionality with refined finishes.</p>

<p>Each townhome has been designed to combine generous internal spaces with sustainability initiatives such as EV charging infrastructure, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>'s landscaped communal areas, centred around a restored creek line and native planting, encourage residents to connect with nature and spend more time outdoors.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=269527]</p>

<p>Rothelowman's Gary Tsui said the architecture was conceived to respond carefully to its Upper North Shore setting.</p>

<p>"Our vision was to create elegant, uplifting homes that draw on and positively contribute to the local character through meticulously considered design and an interaction with the surroundings."</p>

<p>The communal landscape has been designed as more than an open space between homes. Arcadia's Ben Newell and Kate Phillips said the adjoining reserve provided an opportunity to create a distinctive natural retreat for residents.</p>

<p>"Just as waterways carve their way through Ku-ring-gai's landscape, a raised boardwalk weaves through the reserve, connecting the homes to this tranquil oasis."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374892]</p>

<p>Located just 300 metres from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/gordon-nsw-2072">Gordon</a> Village and Gordon railway station, Lume offers convenient access to Sydney's CBD while placing residents close to some of the North Shore's leading schools, including Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College and Knox Grammar. Lane Cove National Park, Gordon Golf Club and a range of cafés and restaurants further reinforce the family-focused lifestyle on offer, with the BMW iX3 50 complementing everything from local trips around Gordon to weekend drives and city commutes.</p>

<p>Construction is underway with completion expected in mid-2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7354]</p>


Boutique Gordon townhomes now come with a BMW iX3 50

<p>Two apartments have sold for more than $10 million at EADE Byron Bay, setting some of the highest apartment prices ever achieved in the coastal town and underlining the growing appetite for luxury beachfront apartments in Australia's most popular coastal locations.</p>

<p>The $210 million project by Vitale Property Group has now secured more than $70 million in sales, led by residences that changed hands for $12.75 million and $11.75 million.</p>

<p>The record-breaking transactions reinforce the shift occurring in Byron Bay's premium property market, where affluent downsizers and lifestyle buyers are increasingly opting for high-end apartments over large beachfront homes.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/eade-byron-bay-29-shirley-street-byron-bay-nsw-2481">EADE Byron Bay</a> occupies a rare 6,000 sqm absolute beachfront site on the corner of Shirley and Milton Streets overlooking Main Beach and The Wreck surf break, just 350 metres from Byron Bay's town centre.</p>

<p>The 25-residence development is the first beachfront apartment project approved in Byron Bay in more than a decade and is currently under construction, with completion expected in May 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359521]</p>

<p>The project has attracted a mix of local Byron Shire residents downsizing from larger homes, alongside interstate buyers from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane seeking a permanent coastal lifestyle without compromising on space.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hayball">Hayball</a> and with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/alexander-co">Alexander &amp; Co</a>, EADE comprises&nbsp;10 garden apartments ranging from 284 sqm to 622 sqm, nine with private pools, five full-floor apartments and 10 rooftop residences with private plunge pools, expansive outdoor entertaining areas and uninterrupted ocean views.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359527]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/vitale-property-group">Vitale Property Group</a> Managing Partner Chris Vitale said the project's combination of scale, location and limited future supply was driving buyer demand.</p>

<p>"There isn't another beachfront holding in Byron Bay of this size and position that could be developed again," Vitale said.</p>

<p>"Buyers are responding to the scarcity and the irreplaceability of a site of this calibre and to floorplans they can't find elsewhere in the market.</p>

<p>"We are seeing buyers place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of the location. The sales achieved to date demonstrate that discerning purchasers recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay.</p>

<p>"Many are coming from larger homes in the Byron region, or from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and are after the space, security and convenience, without the upkeep of a house."</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359523]</p>

<p>The Byron Bay project follows Vitale Property Group's delivery of the Mondrian Hotel and Private Residences at Burleigh Heads, with EADE continuing the developer's focus on luxury coastal developments.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a resort-style swimming pool, gymnasium, sauna, cold plunge pool, concierge services and dedicated workspaces, while the project is targeting an 8-Star Green Star rating.</p>

<p>EADE Byron Bay is being exclusively marketed by Projx Australia in conjunction with WHITEFOX Projects.</p>

<p>WHITEFOX National Projects Director Phillip Rand said demand had been driven predominantly by owner-occupiers.</p>

<p>"We are seeing buyers at EADE place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of this location," Rand says.</p>

<p>"The sales achieved to date demonstrate that purchasers at this level recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay."</p>

<p>Residences at EADE Byron Bay are currently priced between $4.75 million and $15.95 million.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145590]</p>


Vitale breaks Byron Bay records with EADE sales flurry 

<p>Sydney’s property market is known for high prices, competitive bidding, and mounting pressure on first home buyers. But change is on the horizon.</p>

<p>From late 2025, eligible first home buyers in New South Wales will have access to a new federal government initiative aimed at addressing affordability: the Help to Buy Scheme.&nbsp;</p>

<h2>What is the Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

<p>The program introduces a shared equity model intended to reduce the upfront cost of entering the property market, particularly in high-demand urban areas such as Sydney.</p>

<p>The scheme operates under a shared ownership structure in which the federal government takes an equity stake of up to 40 per cent for new homes, or 30 per cent for existing dwellings. This arrangement allows eligible buyers to significantly reduce their loan size and avoid the added cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI).</p>

<p>Under this model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required. The government’s contribution is not a loan but a co-ownership stake in the property. As such, there is no interest or rent charged on its portion.</p>

<p>Because the government’s equity combined with the buyer’s deposit typically meets or exceeds the 20 per cent threshold, LMI does not apply. The remaining balance, generally between 60 and 70 per cent of the property’s value, is financed through a standard home loan with a participating lender.</p>

<p>The government's equity in the property remains in place until the buyer chooses to repay it voluntarily or until the property is sold. Buyers can buy back the government’s share over time, in increments of at least five per cent, depending on their financial situation.</p>

<p>There is no fixed repayment timeline, but the amount to be repaid will be based on the property's market value at the time of repayment, not the original purchase price.</p>

<h2>How do you qualify for the&nbsp;Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

<p>To qualify for the Help to Buy Scheme, applicants must meet the following conditions:</p>

<ul>
	<li>Be an Australian citizen at least 18 years of age.</li>
	<li>Be a first-home buyer who does not currently own property.</li>
	<li>Intend to live in the property as their primary residence.</li>
	<li>Earn less than $100,000 per year for individuals, or $160,000 for couples.</li>
	<li>Purchase a property within the regional price caps, currently $950,000 in Sydney, though this is expected to rise to approximately $1.3 million ahead of the program’s launch.</li>
</ul>

<p>While the Help to Buy Scheme does not solve affordability challenges across the board, it does offer a more accessible pathway for a defined segment of the market, particularly younger buyers with moderate incomes who have been priced out of traditional lending routes.</p>

<p>The scheme is expected to commence in NSW in late 2025, as part of a national rollout.</p>


Under the new model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required

Help to Buy Scheme: What first home buyers in NSW need to know

<p>The First Home Owners Grant (FHOG) is a government initiative designed to help eligible first-time home buyers by offering financial assistance towards the purchase or construction of a new home.</p>

<p>While the FHOG is a nationwide program, it is administered separately by each state and territory, meaning the eligibility criteria, grant amounts, and property requirements can vary depending on your location. This means that the amount available and the conditions attached to the grant will differ, so it is important to check the specific guidelines for your state or territory.</p>

<p>It’s important to note that the FHOG is just one of several incentives available to first home buyers. In most states and territories, the grant is not linked to stamp duty exemptions or concessions, with the exception of the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The FHOG is typically a one-off payment, reducing the overall cost of purchasing or building a new home before any stamp duty concessions are applied.</p>

<p>Below, we provide a breakdown of the First Home Owner Grants available across Australia, outlining the specific details for each state and territory.</p>

<h2>New South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="252" data-start="225">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $600,000. For land purchases and owner-builders, the threshold extends to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong data-end="413" data-start="389">Stamp Duty Benefits:</strong> Provides full stamp duty exemption for homes valued up to $800,000, with concessions available for properties up to $1 million.</p>

<h2>Victoria South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Provides a $10,000 grant for first-home buyers purchasing or building new homes valued up to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Benefits</strong>: Offers full stamp duty exemption for properties up to $600,000, with concessions available up to $750,000.</p>

<h2>Queensland First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="920" data-start="893">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers $30,000 for contracts signed between 20 November 2023 and 30 June 2025. The FHOG applies to new homes valued up to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong data-end="1162" data-start="1135">Stamp Duty Concessions:</strong> Provides additional concessions for properties valued up to $800,000.</p>

<h2>Western Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $750,000 in the southern regions and up to $1 million in the northern regions.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Concessions:</strong> Available for homes valued up to $600,000 for transactions entered into on or after 9 May 2024.</p>

<h2>Australian Capital Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="1617" data-start="1590">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Replaced by the Home Buyer Concession Scheme, offering full stamp duty concessions for eligible buyers.</p>

<h2>South Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Provides up to $15,000 for new homes, including houses, apartments, and townhouses. As of 6 June 2024, there is no property value cap for eligibility.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Relief:</strong> Available for new homes and vacant land purchases.</p>

<h2>Tasmania First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant</strong>: Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes and off the plan purchases.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Exemption</strong>: Between 18 February 2024 and 30 June 2026, first home buyers of established homes valued up to $750,000 receive a full exemption on property transfer duty.</p>

<h2>Northern Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> The Northern Territory provides a $10,000 grant for new homes only. Additional government grants and concessions are available for first home buyers.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Exemption</strong>: The only stamp duty exemption available to property buyers is the House and Land Package Exemption (HLPE).</p>

<p><em>Eligibility criteria and application processes differ across states. Prospective buyers should refer to their respective state revenue offices for full details on grant availability, conditions, and additional concessions.</em></p>


Every First Home Owner Grant for new property by state

<p>In the ever-evolving landscape of sustainable architecture and environmentally conscious design, systems and ratings in place can help determine the energy efficiency of residential buildings in Australia.</p>

<p>Australia has multiple building rating systems that evaluate energy efficiency and sustainability in existing and new building designs.</p>

<p>Some systems assess individual building components, while others provide an overall rating for the entire structure.</p>

<p>A rating system ensures that homes are comfortable and energy-efficient, whether you are buying, renovating, or building.</p>

<p>NatHERS (Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme) is a common way for new homes to meet energy efficiency requirements.</p>

<p>As new developments continue to shape the urban environment, understanding NatHERS ratings becomes essential for developers and homeowners. This article delves into the concept of NatHERS ratings, their significance, and how they contribute to creating energy-efficient homes.</p>

<h2>What is NatHERS?</h2>

<p>NatHERS is a national initiative implemented by the Australian government to promote energy efficiency in residential buildings. The scheme aims to provide a standardised method for assessing the thermal performance of homes, considering factors such as insulation, orientation, ventilation, and building materials.&nbsp;</p>

<p>NatHERS ratings are the most common way new homes meet the National Construction Code's (NCC's) minimum energy efficiency requirements.&nbsp;</p>

<p>NatHERS assessments provide thermal and whole-home ratings for new homes, townhouses, and apartments.</p>

<p>The rating helps evaluate the energy performance of buildings, guides homeowners and developers to make informed decisions about the energy efficiency of their properties, and encourages the construction of more sustainable, comfortable, and cost-effective homes.</p>

<h2>How NatHERS Ratings Work</h2>

<p>NatHERS ratings are determined through four accredited software tools (AccuRate, BERS Pro, FirstRate5, HERO) using a calculation engine CSIRO developed to predict building temperature based on various factors.</p>

<p>The tools can model complex effects of building mass, insulation, window size, and other elements.</p>

<p>The outcome is a star rating that reflects the building's overall thermal efficiency, indicating how well it can maintain a comfortable indoor temperature without excessive reliance on heating or cooling systems.</p>

<p>The star rating scale ranges from 0 to 10, with a 6-star rating being the minimum requirement for compliance with the National Construction Code (NCC).&nbsp;</p>

<p>Achieving a higher star rating demonstrates a commitment to energy efficiency and sustainability, as the building is better equipped to minimise its environmental impact and reduce long-term energy costs.</p>

<p>Anyone can use NatHERS tools, but accredited assessors can provide certified ratings and professional advice.</p>

<h2>Benefits of Higher NatHERS Ratings</h2>

<p><strong>Energy Efficiency:</strong> Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings are more energy-efficient, requiring less heating and cooling energy. This reduces the structure's carbon footprint and lowers occupants' energy bills.</p>

<p><strong>Cost Savings:</strong> Homes with higher NatHERS ratings are generally more energy-efficient, resulting in reduced energy consumption for heating and cooling. This translates to lower energy bills for homeowners, making sustainable living environmentally friendly and economically viable in the long run.</p>

<p><strong>Environmental Impact:</strong> Lower energy consumption directly translates to a reduced environmental impact. Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings contribute to the overall goal of mitigating climate change by lowering greenhouse gas emissions associated with heating and cooling systems.</p>

<p><strong>Improved Comfort: </strong>Buildings with high NatHERS ratings offer better thermal comfort to occupants. Proper insulation, well-designed ventilation, and optimal orientation maintain a consistent and comfortable indoor temperature, providing occupants with a more enjoyable and healthier space.</p>

<p><strong>Market Value and Desirability:</strong> Higher NatHERS ratings can enhance the market value of a property. As energy efficiency becomes a more significant consideration for homebuyers, a well-rated building may attract a premium price and stand out in the real estate market.</p>

<p><strong>Compliance with Building Codes:</strong> NatHERS ratings are a vital component of the National Construction Code (NCC), and compliance with these ratings is often a mandatory requirement for new developments. Local councils and planning authorities may set minimum energy efficiency standards that must be met to obtain development approval.</p>


The Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme (NatHERS) is a crucial initiative shaping the future of energy-efficient, resilient, and cost-effective homes. With its recent upgrades, NatHERS has evolved into a world-leading tool for the building sector, supporting the global commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Staff Writer

What is a NatHERS rating in new off the plan apartment developments?

<p>Mixed-use developments have gained significant popularity across Australia in recent years due to their unique blend of residential, commercial, and recreational spaces.</p>

<p>Unlike traditional single-purpose developments, mixed-use projects offer a harmonious integration of various functions within a single locale.</p>

<p>Residential units seamlessly coexist with commercial establishments, retail outlets, dining venues, entertainment hubs, and recreational facilities, with the combination not only enhances convenience but also fosters a vibrant lifestyle and a sense of community.</p>

<h3>Convenience and accessibility</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments are designed with convenience in mind. They often integrate residential units with commercial spaces, retail outlets, restaurants, and recreational facilities, creating a self-contained community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=114215 project_image_fid=204874]</p>

<p>The proximity allows residents to enjoy the convenience of having essential amenities and services within walking distance. Whether it's grabbing a cup of coffee, going grocery shopping, or accessing healthcare services, everything is conveniently located, saving residents time and effort.</p>

<h3>Vibrant lifestyle and community</h3>

<p>One of the major advantages of mixed-use developments is the vibrant lifestyle they offer. With a diverse range of amenities and communal spaces, residents have ample opportunities to interact, socialise, and build a sense of community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107714 project_image_fid=214122]</p>

<p>The presence of parks, community centres, and shared spaces fosters a lively atmosphere, encouraging residents to engage in various activities and events. The vibrant lifestyle within these developments creates a unique sense of belonging and camaraderie among the residents.</p>

<h3>Potential for higher rental yields and property value appreciation</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments tend to attract a broad range of tenants and buyers due to their versatile nature. This high demand can result in higher rental yields for investors and potentially lead to property value appreciation over time.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=212887]</p>

<p>The integration of commercial and retail spaces attracts businesses, which can provide a stable rental income stream. Additionally, the popularity of mixed-use developments often drives up property values, making them a potentially lucrative investment in the long term.</p>

<h3>Enhanced security and maintenance</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments typically have comprehensive security measures in place. With controlled access points, CCTV surveillance, and professional security staff, residents can enjoy enhanced safety and peace of mind.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108019 project_image_fid=212658]</p>

<p>Additionally, these developments often have dedicated maintenance teams responsible for the upkeep of common areas, landscaping, and infrastructure. This ensures that the overall appearance and functionality of the development are well-maintained, creating a pleasant living environment for residents.</p>

<h3>Live-work-play balance</h3>

<p>One of the key attractions of mixed-use developments is the ability to achieve a desirable live-work-play balance. The integration of residential and commercial spaces allows residents to live closer to their workplaces, reducing commuting time and improving work-life balance.</p>

<p>The proximity to various amenities and recreational facilities encourages an active and healthy lifestyle. Residents can easily access fitness centres, parks, restaurants, and entertainment options, all within the same development, leading to a more fulfilling and convenient way of life.</p>


alisonwarters@gmail.com

The top five reasons to buy in a mixed-use development

<p style="line-height: 1.38;">When buying a property, everyone needs to be aware of the additional costs that come as part of the buying process.</p>

<p style="line-height: 1.38;">Often the largest outlay, after the deposit which goes to the bank, is stamp duty.</p>

<h2 style="line-height: 1.38;">What is Stamp Duty?</h2>

<p>Stamp duty is an extra tax to pay the government when you buy land, a property, and other certain assets.</p>

<p>It happens when the legal ownership is transferred. It can also be known as property transfer duty or transfer duty.</p>

<p style="line-height: 1.38;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="415" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/C32BWkB5--c" title="YouTube video player" width="660"></iframe></p>

<h2>Who pays Stamp Duty?</h2>

<p>In some circumstances, you may get an exemption. For some states, you won’t have to pay for stamp duty if you are a first home buyer or a pensioner for houses under a particular price. There are also stamp duty concessions, where you may be entitled to a discount.</p>

<h2>How much does Stamp Duty cost?</h2>

<p>Each state has different rules which affect how much you need to pay. These rules can affect the rate you pay, and the timeframe you will need to pay in. Before you buy land or a property, make sure you check the up-to-date information for your state’s stamp duty.</p>

<p>You can use a free stamp duty calculator online to see approximately how much you’ll need to pay. Find out if you’re eligible for an exemption by enquiring on a project via Urban!</p>

<p>Overall, the stamp duty you need to pay will depend on:</p>

<ul>
	<li aria-level="1">How much your land/property is worth</li>
	<li aria-level="1">Where your land/property is located</li>
	<li aria-level="1">What type of land/property it is</li>
</ul>

<p style="line-height:1.38">Want to find out more? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@UrbanAustralia?utm_source=YouTube&amp;utm_medium=Video&amp;utm_campaign=Subscribe&amp;utm_id=Subscribe">Subscribe to our YouTube channel</a> for more property videos.</p>


Ellen Walker

Off-the-plan property explained: What is stamp duty?

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The longtime Graham Geddes Antiques store site on </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">High Street, Armadale could become a seven-level </span>shop top<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> residential tower.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Savills sold the sites near Armadale railway station, known as<a href="https://www.realcommercial.com.au/property-land+development-vic-armadale-501134371" target="_blank"> 875-881 High Street and 19-21 Osment Street</a>, in June for</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> $7.5 million.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The application seeks a seven-level tower with 67 flats configured with between one and five bedrooms. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The complex will include 187 square metres of retail space. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">There was heritage consideration briefly given in 2009 to 19 Osment, </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">a modest timber villa of the late nineteenth century, but with its size suggests standards of amenity above the typical worker’s ‘Struggletown’, Stonnington Council records reveal it was not pursued.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Armadale's tallest proposed apartment block is the proposed 12 levels at the nearby former State Rivers &amp; Water Supply Commission office holding at 590 Orrong Road and 4 Osment Street.</span></p>
<p>The man regarded as <a href="https://www.grahamgeddesantiques.com" target="_blank">Melbourne's antique king</a> previously owned the property.</p>
<p>He had also traded elsewhere in Armadale's High Street which was where he <span>consulted to Robert Holmes a Court, Alan Bond and Christopher Skase during the high-flying 1980s</span>. Now in his 80s, <span>Now aged 72, graham Geddes</span><span> started his business life in the 1960s as a second hand dealer.</span></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Residential approval sought for Graham Geddes High Street, Armadale site

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<p>Australia requires 186,000 dwellings per year to keep up with demand, according to the Housing Industry Association’s (HIA) <em>Housing Australia Future</em> report.</p>
<p>HIA economist Geordan Murray said that one of the greatest policy challenges in coming decades is ensuring a sufficient supply of new dwellings to house a growing and ageing population.</p>
<p>"Within a plethora of potential scenarios, the most likely outcome is an annual new home building requirement between now and 2050 that is considerably higher than was has been achieved over the last 20 years,” said Murray.</p>
<p>“In a scenario where Australia's population and its real incomes grow at a medium rate – a scenario we believe most plausible – the nation will need to build an average of around 186,000 dwellings per annum.”</p>
<p>This includes 152,000 homes to provide housing to new households, and 30,000 to 35,000 dwellings to assist offset demolished homes and satisfy demand for additional housing as a result of rising incomes.</p>
<p>“In 2013/14, the number of new homes built was about the same as the number of new homes demanded by the population during the year,” he said.</p>
<p>“Unfortunately a match of this kind is an aberration - throughout much of the last decade there was a considerable mismatch between the level of demand for housing and the amount of new home building.”</p>
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jduke-EHk3XBmHkn

We need 186,000 dwellings per year to keep up: HIA

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<p>A large proportion of housing demand is currently being driven by investment.</p>
<p>Unfortunately in Australia we only receive information on owner occupier and investment ownership of properties every five years with the census.</p>
<p>Because of this, RP Data's Analytics team have built a set of rules to determine the probability that a home is owned by either an investor, owner occupier or the Government.</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank has specifically noted that they have concerns with the high level of speculative investor activity, specifically in Sydney and Melbourne. The following thematic maps show the capital cities and measure the proportion of homes owned by investors across each region.</p>
<p>The geographic trends in investor activity are very clear from these maps; investors are heavily concentrated within the inner city apartment markets.</p>
<p>The below maps clearly highlight that investors overwhelmingly focus their attention on inner city unit markets.</p>
<p>When the Reserve Bank raised concerns that there is too much investor activity taking place, it is also clear that the concentration risk is very much centred geographically within these inner city unit markets.</p>
<p>If we did see investors pulling out the market 'en masse' or investor demand dry up for one reason or another over a short frame of time, then there is a heightened risk of declines in market value.</p>
<p><strong>Investor concentration in Adelaide's markets:</strong></p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/Adelaide-houses.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/Adelaide-units.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<p> <strong>Investor concentration in Brisbane's markets:</strong></p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/Brisbane-houses-470x580.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/Brisbane-units-423x580.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><em>To see the concentration of investors in Canberra, Darwin, Hobart, Perth, Sydney and Melbourne markets, click below. <br></em></p>
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
<p>  <strong><strong>Investor concentration in Canberra's markets:</strong></strong></p>
<p><em><img src="/images/2014/10/15/Canberra-houses.jpg" alt=""></em></p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/Canberra-units.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong><strong>Investor concentration in Darwin's markets:</strong></strong></p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/Darwin-houses.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/Darwin-units.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><em>To see investor concentration in Hobart, Perth, Sydney and Melbourne markets, click below.</em></p>
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
<p> <strong>Investor concentration in Hobart's markets:</strong></p>
<p><em><img src="/images/2014/10/15/Hobart-houses.jpg" alt=""></em></p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/Hobart-units.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> <strong>Investor concentration in Melbourne's markets:</strong></p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/Melbourne-houses.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/Melbourne-units2-580x548.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><em> To see investor concentration in Sydney and Perth markets, click below.</em></p>
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
<p><strong><strong>Investor concentration in Perth's markets:</strong></strong><em><br></em></p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><img src="/images/2014/10/15/Perth-houses-394x580.jpg" alt=""></em></p>
<p> </p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/Perth-units-403x580.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> <strong>Investor concentration in Sydney's markets:</strong></p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/Sydney-houses.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/Sydney-units.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

Heavy investor concentration exposes inner city unit markets to risk

<html><body>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its Lending Finance data this week, and it was a pretty weak reading after a couple of apparently very strong months for commercial lending.</p>
<p>Total new lending fell by 10.3% in August from the previous month with a sharp 16% drop in commercial lending the driver of the result.</p>
<p>Owner occupier housing loans fell by 2% in the month of August on a seasonally adjusted basis, with most states seeing activity fall in the month (although notably not Queensland).</p>
<p>Note that the ABS classifies property investor loans separately from owner occupier loans and thus these come under the commercial lending header in the chart below.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Year on year total new lending remains 11% higher, which is promising, and the rolling 12 monthly figures about do show that the overall trend has been a good 'un.</p>
<p>However, there is no getting away from the fact that August was a fairly rubbish result for commercial and business lending and quickly quells the enthusiasm of the markets from last month which saw some excitable claims that interest rates will be heading up imminently.</p>
<p>In short: No, they won't be.</p>
<p><strong>Property investor loans</strong></p>
<p>As for those property investor loans, in aggregate, property investor loans were pretty much flat in August on a seasonally adjusted basis.</p>
<p>On a trend basis, investor loans were down in all states, as one might expect. On a rolling 12 monthly basis, however, property investor loans across all of the main states continued to rise, with New South Wales and Victoria marching on to new heights.</p>
<p>New South Wales (read: Sydney) loans are a whopping 42.5% higher year-on-year on a rolling annual basis.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Just looking at the straight raw monthly property investor loan data, New South Wales and Victoria are the clear standouts with 30% and 28% increases respectively.</p>
<p>Elsewhere activity has been softer, although evidently property investors are becoming more active in Queensland. Property investor activity has been solid in Western Australia and flat in South Australia.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><strong>Macro-pru</strong></p>
<p>Overall, it's not yet quite clear what this means for so-termed macro-prudential regulation to cool the investor market.</p>
<p>Clearly with property investor loans up very strongly over the past year, macro-prudential measures from the regulator (APRA) are very much in play in order to keep the proportion of lending to investors under some kind of check.</p>
<p>The August data taken by itself was far from alarming so there may be no knee-jerk announcements or reactions while the Reserve Bank and APRA await another month or two of data.</p>
<p>It's impossible to second guess these volatile data sets or indeed the actions of the regulator, although one generally gets the sense that dramatic macro-prudential measures are not really a preferred option.</p>
<p>Wayne Byres of APRA made the point the other day that although "people love the term" there is "nothing really new" about macro-prudential measures, which sort of implied moderation (to me at least).</p>
<p>I do just note in passing that AFG's more timely data for September showed record transactional activity for New South Wales as well as 49.7% investor loans.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The Sydney property market marches on to new heights, and unlike in the previous boom cycle of a decade ago higher interest rates are not anywhere to be seen on the horizon in order to slow the market down (and vacancy rates remain much lower today too) - this cyclical boom will have to die of all age and of its own accord or be slowed by regulation.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Sydney's property market reaches new heights

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<p>Glenn Stevens' statement on interest rates was bland but holds important reminders for property investors.</p>
<p>It's probably a sign of how stable our economy is that we wait for the slightest change in wording when the Reserve Bank (RBA) decides on the cash rate.</p>
<p>Last Tuesday the RBA board met and decided to keep the official interest rate at 2.5% – not only a historically low rate compared with the 5.2% average since 1990, but also a rate that's been kept the same since August 2013.</p>
<p>But it was the way RBA governor Glenn Stevens expressed himself on property prices and the Australian dollar that is worth looking at during the remainder of the year and into 2015.</p>
<p>For more than a month we've heard strong commentary from economists about unhealthy price inflation in the property market, driven by low interest rates. Some of that comment has predicted an end to negative gearing. I haven't joined this discussion because lenders' figures don't suggest a problem in the property market, and the Bureau of Statistics' House Price Index series shows we are just slightly above the index average since 2002.</p>
<p>However, the RBA governor in his statement did mention investment property: "Credit growth is moderate overall, but with a further pick-up in recent months in lending to investors in housing assets."</p>
<p>I think Stevens was right to address the property market with a bland statement like this. If nothing else, it's a reminder to property investors that they must do their homework and invest wisely regardless of what official interest rates are doing.</p>
<p>With an investment property, you are interested in a good location and access to infrastructure such as schools, shops, railway stations and playing parks. And you are also interested in average rentals and some historical data on rental yields.</p>
<p>But the first step in a good investment is buying well. This means not just paying a good price for the year, but a good price for the 10 to 20 years you want to generate income from this property. If you pay too much you'll lose on capital appreciation and it will take longer to generate clear funds from the rent.</p>
<p>It's one thing to get carried away at an auction and pay too much for the house you love, but an investment property is a business that must earn income and capital growth for many years.</p>
<p>So keep a cool head.</p>
<p>The other element mentioned by the RBA – that they expect the Aussie dollar to fall further against the US – is something that might give a boost to our economy. When our dollar was at parity with the US, Aussie exports were expensive and local manufacturers found it hard to compete in foreign markets.</p>
<p>Now that our dollar is at 85 US cents – and expected to fall further – our non-mining economy has a chance to pick up, expand operations and create jobs.</p>
<p>So don't be alarmed at the lack of big headlines from the Reserve Bank this month. A steady economy is a great thing when you consider the alternative.</p>
</body></html>

mbouris-tauSvXGAM2

Do your homework, whatever the interest rate

<html><body>
<p>Investors are making it increasingly difficult for other buyers to enter the market, according to Bob Guth’s weekly <em>Realestatement</em>.</p>
<p>This is particularly challenging among the apartment market in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.</p>
<p>He notes that more than a third of all occupied housing in Australia are rentals, with almost half of all new housing loans in 2014 defined as investment loans.</p>
<p>“It’s unsurprising that competition from investors has resulted in many would-be homebuyers forgoing the idea of owner-occupation. Instead, they are joining the investor ranks to gain a foothold in the marketplace,” says the director and chief auctioneer of Sydney agency BradfieldCleary.</p>
<p>Recent first-home owner figures show that home loan applications are at record lows while many first-time buyers decide to gain a foothold by turning to investment.</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics records that 64% of the population in NSW is in Sydney and that is projected to grow to 74% by 2061.</p>
<p>This will drive housing demand, further push up prices and have a spill on effective on values of established property similar to Europe and Asia.</p>
<p>Bob Guth points out that declining interest rates has helped owner-occupiers and investors to buy residential property and this has underpinned housing performance for the last two years.</p>
<p>“The major banks cut fixed-term interest rates in July 2014 and this is fuelling greater interest in this class of asset,” he says.</p>
<p>Records are not likely to be set this spring. Bob Guth believes the market will experience more property volume from now.</p>
<p> </p>
</body></html>

andreadixon-oif3j7eKne

Investors creating challenging market for other buyers: Bob Guth

<html><body>
<div class="page" title="Page 4">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Savills, in the 12 months to September 2014, identified 29,989 square metres of leases in the Parramatta market. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">This was up 55% on the 12 months prior, and up on the five year average (22,860 square metres).</span></p>
<p><span><strong>Parramatta office leases to September 2014</strong> </span></p>
</div>
</div>
<br><table>
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Date </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Property </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>NLA (sq m) </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Rent ($/sq m) </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Tenant </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Feb-14 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>25 George St, Parramatta </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>1,300 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>400 G </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Careers Australia </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Feb-14 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>91 Phillip St, Parramatta </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>426 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>350 N </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Knight Frank </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>May-14 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>426 Church St, Parramatta </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>815 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>305 N </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Community Connections </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>May-14 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>110 George St, Parramatta </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>528 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>335 N </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Government Property NSW </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Aug-14 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>169 Macquarie St, Parramatta </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>26,000 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>na </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>University of Western Sydney </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Sep-14 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>91 Phillip St, Parramatta </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>940 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>na </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>KPMG </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Net absorption of 1,737 square metres was recorded in the Parramatta market in the 12 months to June 2014.</span></p>
<p><span>With only 675 square metres of A Grade available space according to the latest Property Council of Australia (PCA) <em>Office Market Report</em>, Savills says any future demand for prime buildings will likely be soaked up by well positioned secondary grade assets in the short-term, as there are no new major developments under construction. </span></p>
<p><span>This is forecast to continue placing downward pressure on the overall vacancy rate in the Parramatta office market and further reinforcing the need for development of new space in the market. </span></p>
<p><span>Net face rents in Parramatta as at September 2014 typically range between $350 and $450 per square metre per annum for A Grade buildings, and between $265 and $340 per square metre per annum for secondary grade buildings. </span></p>
<p><span>The average A Grade face rent in Parramatta is $400 per square metre per annum, a 7% increase over the last 12 months.</span></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="page" title="Page 5">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>As a result of the University of Western Sydney committing to 1PSQ, Government and Community was the dominant sector <span><span> in the Parramatta office market in the last 12 months</span></span>, accounting for 95% of the stock, or 28,623 square metres o<span>f the 29,989 square metres leased</span>. Similarly, the largest number of transactions was through the Government and Community sector (four transactions).</span></p>
<p><span>The latest PCA <em>Office Market Report</em> shows that the overall vacancy rate in Parramatta decreased by 0.8 percentage points over the 12 months to June 2014 and currently sits at 6.7%. Parramatta vacancy has experienced a downward trend since July 2010, where vacancy was as high as 10.8%. </span></p>
<p><span>Over the last 12 months, A Grade vacancy in Parramatta fell by 2.2 percentage points to an all time low of just 0.2% (675 square metres). This reflects a decline of approximately 5,539 square metres of available space over the period. However, the PCA recorded an increase of 18,600 square metres in total A Grade stock due to a regrade of buildings over the same period. B Grade vacancy in Parramatta recorded an increase from 5.3 % to 9.5% over the last 12 months. </span></p>
<p><span>With no new office supply expected in Parramatta until 2016, coupled with limited A Grade offerings in the market, strong demand in the precommitment market is expected, as well as a tangible benefit to the secondary market in the short-term. </span></p>
</div>
</div>
<br><table>
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Grade </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Stock (sq m) </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Vacancy (sq m) </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Vac % Jun-14 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Vac % Jun-13 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>A Grade </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>273,617 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>675 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>0.2 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>2.4 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>B Grade </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>212,026 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>20,182 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>9.5 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>5.3 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>C Grade </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>104,972 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>19,234 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>18.3 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>17.2 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>D Grade </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>97,413 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>6,096 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>6.3 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>9.0 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Total </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>688,028 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>46,187 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>6.7 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
<td>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>7.5 </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br><div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span> </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Parramatta has downward pressure on office vacancy rate: Savills

<html><body>
<p>Canberra currently has 20 suburbs where the median apartment price is recorded at under $400,000, according to RP Data.</p>
<p>A further 21 have median prices in the $400,000 to $500,000 bracket. The most expensive suburb in terms of apartment median prices was <a href="/news">Yarralumla</a>, with an $808,000 price tag.</p>
<p>Gross rental yields for apartments sit firmly in the 4% to 6%, with no notable exceptions.</p>
<p><a href="/news">Macquarie</a>, which made the list below, recorded the highest rental yield, at 5.8%, with the lowest recorded rental yield being <a href="/news">Deakin</a>'s 4.6%.</p>
<p><a href="/news"><strong>Curtin</strong></a></p>
<p>Median price: $280,000</p>
<p><a href="/news"><strong>Franklin</strong></a></p>
<p>Median price: $290,000</p>
<p><a href="/news"><strong>Hawker</strong></a></p>
<p>Median price: $310,000</p>
<p><a href="/news"><strong>Holt</strong></a></p>
<p>Median price: $325,000</p>
<p><a href="/news"><strong>Scullin</strong></a></p>
<p>Median price: $339,000</p>
<p><a href="/news"><strong>Ngunnawal</strong></a></p>
<p>Median price: $350,000</p>
<p><a href="/news"><strong>Theodore</strong></a></p>
<p>Median price: $356,000</p>
<p><a href="/news"><strong>Macquarie</strong></a></p>
<p>Median price: $358,000</p>
<p><a href="/news"><strong>Watson</strong></a></p>
<p>Median price: $358,000</p>
<p><a href="/news"><strong>Macgregor</strong></a></p>
<p>Median price: $362,000</p>
<p>Narrowly missing the top 10 list included <a href="/news">Gordon</a>, with a $365,000 median price, <a href="/news">Gungahlin</a> and Isabella Plains, both with <a href="/news">$370,000</a> median unit prices.</p>
</body></html>

The 10 cheapest unit suburbs in ACT

<html><body>
<p>I've always liked the saying "can't see the forest for the trees".</p>
<p>It appropriately sums up so much of the distorted self-indoctrinated bias of opinion pertaining to real estate in Australia.</p>
<p>The debate has never been so fierce – especially when it comes to the definition of that 'bubble'. I am of the firm belief that it is those who are actual historians of the Australian property markets who are the ones with the greatest ability to call the exact path and outcomes.</p>
<p>If you want to end the 'bubble' debate simply ask the question: "So when do you see this bubble bursting?"</p>
<p>It's always the fastest way to draw the debate to a fast halt. History has shown when you closely analyse the property market machinations through the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) – Cash Rate Target interest rate changes only then can we see the significant market changes.</p>
<p>That being when the RBA increases the cash rate twice (not once) we are starting to see a new course being charted. Then it takes another two to four years for the affects to be seen given that is when households start to come out of their fixed mortgage periods into the higher mortgage agreements.</p>
<p>Given we are the best part of at least 12 months away from the first cash rate increase – which should send the alarm bells ringing – then depending on the next increase we won't start seeing any noticeable market price corrections until 2016 to 2019.</p>
<p>We also need to bear in mind that when the cash rate increases so does the exchange rate as that goes up in unison, which is the last thing the RBA wants to see given it's presently trying to get the exchange rate down.</p>
<p>We should consider that the RBA is well down the track to introducing its new macroprudential tools as well as waiting to receive (then implement) the findings from the Murray Financial System Inquiry.</p>
<p>No doubt the RBA would be very much looking forward to tinkering the markets with these tools so that (for the very first time) other than increasing the cash rate  it may just be able to manipulate the markets in a way never seen before. For the first time ever (as many would not be aware) we are witnessing history with these new real estate market initiatives.</p>
<p>Again, history will show whether or not they were effective. However, it will be fascinating to watch the outcomes.</p>
<p>So back to those fools on the hill who following this week's RBA decision to leave the cash rate on hold at 2.50% – they even managed to get that wrong. No it was not a record (as some declared). Even though 14 straight months is getting up there, the actual record is 17, not 16 as some would believe. Furthermore, you can only apply consecutive meetings as the RBA doesn't meet in January.</p>
<p>Having said that, when you go back through the history of the cash rate movements at the RBA we start to see fascinating stories evolve.</p>
<p>I have conducted my research on instances where the cash rate remained on hold for 10 or more consecutive meetings:</p>
<p>The first period of RBA cash rate holds started on 30 July 1993 when the cash rate was moved from 5.25% to 4.75%, where it remained until 27 July 1994 – in total 12 holds. Then on 17 August it was bumped up 1.25% to 5.50%.</p>
<p>The next run of holds, which is the equal record 17 holds, happened on 14 December 1994 when the cash rate increased from 6.50% to 7.50%, where it remained until 3 July 1996.</p>
<p>Then it fell to 7.00%. So we are seeing long holds followed by increases and decreases.</p>
<p>On 30 July 1997 we saw another 16 consecutive holds at 5.00%, to then see it drop to 4.75%.</p>
<p>On 5 June 2002 we saw 16 holds at 4.75%, to then see it increased to 5.25% in November 2003.</p>
<p>On 4 February 2004 we saw thirteen holds at 5.25%. When the cash rate was increased to 5.50% in March 2005, that was followed by another twelve holds that was followed by an increase to 5.75%.</p>
<p>Then on 8 December 2011 we had another ten holds at 4.75%, then saw the rate dropped to 4.25%.</p>
<p>We are now in the current hold pattern after fourteen meetings, so based on history it's anyone's guess what or when the next movement might be. I predict the current rate will be set for the longest period in RBA history as it will go well into the twenty something meetings.</p>
<p>So when you see the arguments mounting that many commentators were disappointed that the RBA hardly mentioned that ''bubble" following this week's decision – history clearly shows that the board members may not be that concerned about that "bubble".</p>
<p>Maybe they are more concerned as to why investors have steered clear of the stock market which, by the way, had a few massive corrections this week – although, wait a minute, nothing much was written about that either.</p>
<p>It all depends on what you are looking at – the forest or the trees?</p>
<p>As to be expected stock levels increased significantly this week – so now we finally get to see firsthand just how strong the markets really are.</p>
<p>Watching these numbers will be telling over the period leading up to Christmas, although I don't believe we will see anything that even resembles that imaginary 'bubble'. Time will tell!</p>
<p> </p>
</body></html>

robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Want to know when the market will change? Keep an eye on interest rates

<html><body>
<p>Forecasters are setting themselves up to fail when they make very exact predictions about future price growth.</p>
<p>I've long been puzzled by economic forecasters predicting, for example, that Brisbane house prices will grow 7.4% in 2014-15 (not approximately 7% or 8%, mind you, but exactly 7.4%) and then exactly 7.5% in 2015-16 – as QBE has done with its Australian Housing Outlook report, with the help of BIS Shrapnel.</p>
<p>What micro-economic event will occur in 2015-16 to cause Brisbane's average price growth to limp 0.1 of a percentage point higher in that year, compared to the previous year?</p>
<p>Why will Melbourne prices grow exactly 2.2% in 2015-16 and then decrease exactly 0.7% in 2016-17?</p>
<p>What chance the forecasters will be right? I would suggest zero (and that's an exact figure I can predict with confidence).</p>
<p>Has this kind of forecast ever been exactly right in the past? No. I've checked and I can't find an instance of an accurate prediction.</p>
<p>So why do it? Why pretend you can predict city price growth two or three years into the future, down to the last decimal point, when it's not remotely possible to be right?</p>
<p>The most likely answer is: to drum up a bit of publicity, comfortable in the knowledge that most media outlets will publish this nonsense without asking a single question. And even more comfortable in the knowledge that no one will check in three years to see how accurate the forecasts were.</p>
<p>Louis Christopher of SQM Research commented earlier this year that organisations who make big claims or extreme forecasts for publicity reasons rely on "the community's collective amnesia" to cover their tracks.<br>In other words, they can relax, knowing that no one will bother to check on the results of their forecasts, much less hold them to account for them.</p>
<p>Even more alarming about this forecast report is that it is fundamentally based on data from the Real Estate Institute of Australia.</p>
<p>It lists Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) figures for the previous decade and then extrapolates forward, with predictions for the next three (financial) years.</p>
<p>The Melbourne figures are particularly rubbery. According to the REIA, Melbourne prices rose a tad under 20% in the financial year that ended on 30 June.</p>
<p>Such a figure is fanciful. All the other major research sources contradict it. RP Data says 9%, Australian Property Monitors says 10% and the Australian Bureau of Statistics says 9%.</p>
<p>Even more spectacular, the REIA claims Melbourne prices rose almost 27% in 2009-10.</p>
<p>As I have written previously in this column, the institute's figures for Melbourne growth are good for a laugh, but no one sensible gives them any credibility.</p>
<p>I've called the REIA to account numerous times in the recent past on the accuracy of its price data – and now the institute refuses to send me their figures. Fortunately, it's not difficult to get a copy of their reports from other sources.</p>
<p>The one thing that does make sense about the QBE report are the general themes, in terms of which locations are likely to rise and which are not.</p>
<p>For example, it suggests Brisbane will be the leading city for growth in the next three years, and that makes some sense. It also suggests that Adelaide and Hobart will do better than Melbourne, Perth, Canberra and Darwin, and that generally aligns with my own thoughts, based on our research.</p>
<p>It forecasts growth in some of the key regional centres, such as Newcastle, Wollongong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Cairns, Townsville, the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast – and that also makes sense.</p>
<p>But the exact numbers they have applied to those cities for price growth in the next three years? Give me a break.</p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> him or contact him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">twitter</a>.</em></p>
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