<p>Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.</p>

<p>The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.</p>

<p>The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" /></p>

<p>SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.</p>

<p>“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.</p>

<p>“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" /></p>

<p>The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.</p>

<p>Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.</p>

<p>COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" /></p>

<p>“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.</p>

<p>The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.</p>

<p>The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.</p>

<p>Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a></em></p>


Joel Robinson

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.</p>

<p>The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.</p>

<p>SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”</p>

<p>The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" /></p>

<p>The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.</p>

<p>A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.</p>

<p>Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" /></p>

<p>The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.</p>

<p>Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.</p>

<p>The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.</p>


First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

<p>Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."</p>

<p>Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;</p>


Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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<p data-end="157" data-start="0">The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.</p>

<p data-end="459" data-start="159"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.</p>

<p data-end="459" data-start="159">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]</p>

<p data-end="651" data-start="461"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.</p>

<p data-end="950" data-start="653">Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.</p>

<p data-end="1081" data-start="952">“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.</p>

<p data-end="1081" data-start="952">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]</p>

<p data-end="1307" data-start="1083">Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.</p>

<p data-end="1522" data-start="1309">The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.</p>

<p data-end="1522" data-start="1309">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]</p>

<p data-end="1714" data-start="1524">Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.</p>

<p data-end="1945" data-start="1716">The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.</p>

<p data-end="1945" data-start="1716">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]</p>

<p data-end="2220" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="1947">More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.</p>
</section>
</section>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]</p>


SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

<p data-end="320" data-start="79">Local Little Bay residents, along with buyers from premium postcodes across Sydney’s affluent Eastern Suburbs, have dominated purchases in developer-builder Urban Property Group’s first Eastern Suburbs apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a>.</p>

<p data-end="638" data-start="322">The $250 million coastal project, one of the first new developments in the area in several years, has proven particularly popular with downsizers, especially those from Coogee and Bondi. One Double Bay downsizer paid $4.7 million for a four-bedroom penthouse, setting a new local apartment price record in the process.</p>

<p data-end="864" data-start="640">Buyers have been attracted to the combination of coastal tranquillity, premium design and amenity-rich neighbourhood living. The walkable village setting, along with proximity to three of Sydney’s leading golf courses, New South Wales Golf Club, St Michael’s Golf Club and The Coast Golf Club, has also been a key drawcard.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352689]</p>

<p>Built across two low-rise buildings designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hill-thalis-architecture-urban-projects-pty-ltd">Hill Thalis</a> and set along a lush, landscaped green spine, designed by leading landscape architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>, ESTE Little Bay offers a collection of one, two, three and four-bedroom residences with interiors by Richards Stanisich.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> Sales Director, Tom McIvor said the response to ESTE has been "nothing short of extraordinary."</p>

<p>“Buyers have been quick to recognise ESTE as a rare opportunity to invest in a coastal sanctuary that offers both seclusion and connectivity to the heart of Sydney,” McIvor said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352687]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">SRM Residential</a> Senior Director, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">Clayton Ross</a> said the local market has responded incredibly well, driven by ESTE’s exceptional location and the rarity it offers.</p>

<p>“We’ve seen strong interest from a variety of buyer groups, all of whom are drawn to the exclusivity and quality of the build and construction by the 4.5-star iCIRT-rated builder / developer, Urban Property Group. There’s truly nothing else like it along Sydney’s coastline.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352690]</p>

<p>The project also includes robust buyer protections, including Resilience Insurance’s Latent Defects Insurance, providing 10 years of structural cover, and an independent iCIRT-rating of the developer.</p>

<p>“The iCIRT-rating adds another layer of confidence,” Ross added. “Buyers see it as a safeguard for their investment and their lifestyle.” A highlight of ESTE’s offering is its exclusive wellness amenities, including a heated rooftop infinity pool and outdoor heated spa, a state-of-the-art Technogym fitness centre, and a sauna.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a> is topped out and is on track to complete towards the end of 2026, with residents moving in before Christmas.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112343]</p>


Eastern Suburbs buyers snap up ESTE Little Bay apartments

<p>Sydney’s property market is known for high prices, competitive bidding, and mounting pressure on first home buyers. But change is on the horizon.</p>

<p>From late 2025, eligible first home buyers in New South Wales will have access to a new federal government initiative aimed at addressing affordability: the Help to Buy Scheme.&nbsp;</p>

<h2>What is the Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

<p>The program introduces a shared equity model intended to reduce the upfront cost of entering the property market, particularly in high-demand urban areas such as Sydney.</p>

<p>The scheme operates under a shared ownership structure in which the federal government takes an equity stake of up to 40 per cent for new homes, or 30 per cent for existing dwellings. This arrangement allows eligible buyers to significantly reduce their loan size and avoid the added cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI).</p>

<p>Under this model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required. The government’s contribution is not a loan but a co-ownership stake in the property. As such, there is no interest or rent charged on its portion.</p>

<p>Because the government’s equity combined with the buyer’s deposit typically meets or exceeds the 20 per cent threshold, LMI does not apply. The remaining balance, generally between 60 and 70 per cent of the property’s value, is financed through a standard home loan with a participating lender.</p>

<p>The government's equity in the property remains in place until the buyer chooses to repay it voluntarily or until the property is sold. Buyers can buy back the government’s share over time, in increments of at least five per cent, depending on their financial situation.</p>

<p>There is no fixed repayment timeline, but the amount to be repaid will be based on the property's market value at the time of repayment, not the original purchase price.</p>

<h2>How do you qualify for the&nbsp;Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

<p>To qualify for the Help to Buy Scheme, applicants must meet the following conditions:</p>

<ul>
	<li>Be an Australian citizen at least 18 years of age.</li>
	<li>Be a first-home buyer who does not currently own property.</li>
	<li>Intend to live in the property as their primary residence.</li>
	<li>Earn less than $100,000 per year for individuals, or $160,000 for couples.</li>
	<li>Purchase a property within the regional price caps, currently $950,000 in Sydney, though this is expected to rise to approximately $1.3 million ahead of the program’s launch.</li>
</ul>

<p>While the Help to Buy Scheme does not solve affordability challenges across the board, it does offer a more accessible pathway for a defined segment of the market, particularly younger buyers with moderate incomes who have been priced out of traditional lending routes.</p>

<p>The scheme is expected to commence in NSW in late 2025, as part of a national rollout.</p>


Under the new model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required

Help to Buy Scheme: What first home buyers in NSW need to know

<p>The First Home Owners Grant (FHOG) is a government initiative designed to help eligible first-time home buyers by offering financial assistance towards the purchase or construction of a new home.</p>

<p>While the FHOG is a nationwide program, it is administered separately by each state and territory, meaning the eligibility criteria, grant amounts, and property requirements can vary depending on your location. This means that the amount available and the conditions attached to the grant will differ, so it is important to check the specific guidelines for your state or territory.</p>

<p>It’s important to note that the FHOG is just one of several incentives available to first home buyers. In most states and territories, the grant is not linked to stamp duty exemptions or concessions, with the exception of the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The FHOG is typically a one-off payment, reducing the overall cost of purchasing or building a new home before any stamp duty concessions are applied.</p>

<p>Below, we provide a breakdown of the First Home Owner Grants available across Australia, outlining the specific details for each state and territory.</p>

<h2>New South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="252" data-start="225">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $600,000. For land purchases and owner-builders, the threshold extends to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong data-end="413" data-start="389">Stamp Duty Benefits:</strong> Provides full stamp duty exemption for homes valued up to $800,000, with concessions available for properties up to $1 million.</p>

<h2>Victoria South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Provides a $10,000 grant for first-home buyers purchasing or building new homes valued up to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Benefits</strong>: Offers full stamp duty exemption for properties up to $600,000, with concessions available up to $750,000.</p>

<h2>Queensland First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="920" data-start="893">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers $30,000 for contracts signed between 20 November 2023 and 30 June 2025. The FHOG applies to new homes valued up to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong data-end="1162" data-start="1135">Stamp Duty Concessions:</strong> Provides additional concessions for properties valued up to $800,000.</p>

<h2>Western Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $750,000 in the southern regions and up to $1 million in the northern regions.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Concessions:</strong> Available for homes valued up to $600,000 for transactions entered into on or after 9 May 2024.</p>

<h2>Australian Capital Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="1617" data-start="1590">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Replaced by the Home Buyer Concession Scheme, offering full stamp duty concessions for eligible buyers.</p>

<h2>South Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Provides up to $15,000 for new homes, including houses, apartments, and townhouses. As of 6 June 2024, there is no property value cap for eligibility.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Relief:</strong> Available for new homes and vacant land purchases.</p>

<h2>Tasmania First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant</strong>: Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes and off the plan purchases.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Exemption</strong>: Between 18 February 2024 and 30 June 2026, first home buyers of established homes valued up to $750,000 receive a full exemption on property transfer duty.</p>

<h2>Northern Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> The Northern Territory provides a $10,000 grant for new homes only. Additional government grants and concessions are available for first home buyers.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Exemption</strong>: The only stamp duty exemption available to property buyers is the House and Land Package Exemption (HLPE).</p>

<p><em>Eligibility criteria and application processes differ across states. Prospective buyers should refer to their respective state revenue offices for full details on grant availability, conditions, and additional concessions.</em></p>


Every First Home Owner Grant for new property by state

<p>In the ever-evolving landscape of sustainable architecture and environmentally conscious design, systems and ratings in place can help determine the energy efficiency of residential buildings in Australia.</p>

<p>Australia has multiple building rating systems that evaluate energy efficiency and sustainability in existing and new building designs.</p>

<p>Some systems assess individual building components, while others provide an overall rating for the entire structure.</p>

<p>A rating system ensures that homes are comfortable and energy-efficient, whether you are buying, renovating, or building.</p>

<p>NatHERS (Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme) is a common way for new homes to meet energy efficiency requirements.</p>

<p>As new developments continue to shape the urban environment, understanding NatHERS ratings becomes essential for developers and homeowners. This article delves into the concept of NatHERS ratings, their significance, and how they contribute to creating energy-efficient homes.</p>

<h2>What is NatHERS?</h2>

<p>NatHERS is a national initiative implemented by the Australian government to promote energy efficiency in residential buildings. The scheme aims to provide a standardised method for assessing the thermal performance of homes, considering factors such as insulation, orientation, ventilation, and building materials.&nbsp;</p>

<p>NatHERS ratings are the most common way new homes meet the National Construction Code's (NCC's) minimum energy efficiency requirements.&nbsp;</p>

<p>NatHERS assessments provide thermal and whole-home ratings for new homes, townhouses, and apartments.</p>

<p>The rating helps evaluate the energy performance of buildings, guides homeowners and developers to make informed decisions about the energy efficiency of their properties, and encourages the construction of more sustainable, comfortable, and cost-effective homes.</p>

<h2>How NatHERS Ratings Work</h2>

<p>NatHERS ratings are determined through four accredited software tools (AccuRate, BERS Pro, FirstRate5, HERO) using a calculation engine CSIRO developed to predict building temperature based on various factors.</p>

<p>The tools can model complex effects of building mass, insulation, window size, and other elements.</p>

<p>The outcome is a star rating that reflects the building's overall thermal efficiency, indicating how well it can maintain a comfortable indoor temperature without excessive reliance on heating or cooling systems.</p>

<p>The star rating scale ranges from 0 to 10, with a 6-star rating being the minimum requirement for compliance with the National Construction Code (NCC).&nbsp;</p>

<p>Achieving a higher star rating demonstrates a commitment to energy efficiency and sustainability, as the building is better equipped to minimise its environmental impact and reduce long-term energy costs.</p>

<p>Anyone can use NatHERS tools, but accredited assessors can provide certified ratings and professional advice.</p>

<h2>Benefits of Higher NatHERS Ratings</h2>

<p><strong>Energy Efficiency:</strong> Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings are more energy-efficient, requiring less heating and cooling energy. This reduces the structure's carbon footprint and lowers occupants' energy bills.</p>

<p><strong>Cost Savings:</strong> Homes with higher NatHERS ratings are generally more energy-efficient, resulting in reduced energy consumption for heating and cooling. This translates to lower energy bills for homeowners, making sustainable living environmentally friendly and economically viable in the long run.</p>

<p><strong>Environmental Impact:</strong> Lower energy consumption directly translates to a reduced environmental impact. Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings contribute to the overall goal of mitigating climate change by lowering greenhouse gas emissions associated with heating and cooling systems.</p>

<p><strong>Improved Comfort: </strong>Buildings with high NatHERS ratings offer better thermal comfort to occupants. Proper insulation, well-designed ventilation, and optimal orientation maintain a consistent and comfortable indoor temperature, providing occupants with a more enjoyable and healthier space.</p>

<p><strong>Market Value and Desirability:</strong> Higher NatHERS ratings can enhance the market value of a property. As energy efficiency becomes a more significant consideration for homebuyers, a well-rated building may attract a premium price and stand out in the real estate market.</p>

<p><strong>Compliance with Building Codes:</strong> NatHERS ratings are a vital component of the National Construction Code (NCC), and compliance with these ratings is often a mandatory requirement for new developments. Local councils and planning authorities may set minimum energy efficiency standards that must be met to obtain development approval.</p>


The Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme (NatHERS) is a crucial initiative shaping the future of energy-efficient, resilient, and cost-effective homes. With its recent upgrades, NatHERS has evolved into a world-leading tool for the building sector, supporting the global commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Staff Writer

What is a NatHERS rating in new off the plan apartment developments?

<p>Mixed-use developments have gained significant popularity across Australia in recent years due to their unique blend of residential, commercial, and recreational spaces.</p>

<p>Unlike traditional single-purpose developments, mixed-use projects offer a harmonious integration of various functions within a single locale.</p>

<p>Residential units seamlessly coexist with commercial establishments, retail outlets, dining venues, entertainment hubs, and recreational facilities, with the combination not only enhances convenience but also fosters a vibrant lifestyle and a sense of community.</p>

<h3>Convenience and accessibility</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments are designed with convenience in mind. They often integrate residential units with commercial spaces, retail outlets, restaurants, and recreational facilities, creating a self-contained community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=114215 project_image_fid=204874]</p>

<p>The proximity allows residents to enjoy the convenience of having essential amenities and services within walking distance. Whether it's grabbing a cup of coffee, going grocery shopping, or accessing healthcare services, everything is conveniently located, saving residents time and effort.</p>

<h3>Vibrant lifestyle and community</h3>

<p>One of the major advantages of mixed-use developments is the vibrant lifestyle they offer. With a diverse range of amenities and communal spaces, residents have ample opportunities to interact, socialise, and build a sense of community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107714 project_image_fid=214122]</p>

<p>The presence of parks, community centres, and shared spaces fosters a lively atmosphere, encouraging residents to engage in various activities and events. The vibrant lifestyle within these developments creates a unique sense of belonging and camaraderie among the residents.</p>

<h3>Potential for higher rental yields and property value appreciation</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments tend to attract a broad range of tenants and buyers due to their versatile nature. This high demand can result in higher rental yields for investors and potentially lead to property value appreciation over time.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=212887]</p>

<p>The integration of commercial and retail spaces attracts businesses, which can provide a stable rental income stream. Additionally, the popularity of mixed-use developments often drives up property values, making them a potentially lucrative investment in the long term.</p>

<h3>Enhanced security and maintenance</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments typically have comprehensive security measures in place. With controlled access points, CCTV surveillance, and professional security staff, residents can enjoy enhanced safety and peace of mind.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108019 project_image_fid=212658]</p>

<p>Additionally, these developments often have dedicated maintenance teams responsible for the upkeep of common areas, landscaping, and infrastructure. This ensures that the overall appearance and functionality of the development are well-maintained, creating a pleasant living environment for residents.</p>

<h3>Live-work-play balance</h3>

<p>One of the key attractions of mixed-use developments is the ability to achieve a desirable live-work-play balance. The integration of residential and commercial spaces allows residents to live closer to their workplaces, reducing commuting time and improving work-life balance.</p>

<p>The proximity to various amenities and recreational facilities encourages an active and healthy lifestyle. Residents can easily access fitness centres, parks, restaurants, and entertainment options, all within the same development, leading to a more fulfilling and convenient way of life.</p>


alisonwarters@gmail.com

The top five reasons to buy in a mixed-use development

<p style="line-height: 1.38;">When buying a property, everyone needs to be aware of the additional costs that come as part of the buying process.</p>

<p style="line-height: 1.38;">Often the largest outlay, after the deposit which goes to the bank, is stamp duty.</p>

<h2 style="line-height: 1.38;">What is Stamp Duty?</h2>

<p>Stamp duty is an extra tax to pay the government when you buy land, a property, and other certain assets.</p>

<p>It happens when the legal ownership is transferred. It can also be known as property transfer duty or transfer duty.</p>

<p style="line-height: 1.38;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="415" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/C32BWkB5--c" title="YouTube video player" width="660"></iframe></p>

<h2>Who pays Stamp Duty?</h2>

<p>In some circumstances, you may get an exemption. For some states, you won’t have to pay for stamp duty if you are a first home buyer or a pensioner for houses under a particular price. There are also stamp duty concessions, where you may be entitled to a discount.</p>

<h2>How much does Stamp Duty cost?</h2>

<p>Each state has different rules which affect how much you need to pay. These rules can affect the rate you pay, and the timeframe you will need to pay in. Before you buy land or a property, make sure you check the up-to-date information for your state’s stamp duty.</p>

<p>You can use a free stamp duty calculator online to see approximately how much you’ll need to pay. Find out if you’re eligible for an exemption by enquiring on a project via Urban!</p>

<p>Overall, the stamp duty you need to pay will depend on:</p>

<ul>
	<li aria-level="1">How much your land/property is worth</li>
	<li aria-level="1">Where your land/property is located</li>
	<li aria-level="1">What type of land/property it is</li>
</ul>

<p style="line-height:1.38">Want to find out more? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@UrbanAustralia?utm_source=YouTube&amp;utm_medium=Video&amp;utm_campaign=Subscribe&amp;utm_id=Subscribe">Subscribe to our YouTube channel</a> for more property videos.</p>


Ellen Walker

Off-the-plan property explained: What is stamp duty?

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">It's become traditional at this time of year for the media to mention all the potential gloom and risks facing the economy - the auto assembly industry shutting down is an old favourite, and resources construction declining, of course.</span></h3>
<p>Thing is, we've known about these issues for aeons now.  </p>
<p>What is rarely mentioned is that if the all of the downside events do play out the declining Aussie dollar would bear the brunt of the adjustment, quickly declining to 40 to 50 cents.</p>
<p>Given that the Reserve Bank seems unwilling to cut interest rates further, a strong increase in business investment over the next couple of years admittedly doesn't seem all that probable. </p>
<p>Regardless, nothing is all good or all bad, and here are a few possible upside risks for the economy.</p>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>1 - Manufacturing jobs increase </strong></span></p>
<p>The car industry will see some manufacturing jobs go this year. Still, manufacturing employment soared by +102,000 last year, and the PMI gauge is in positive territory too. Any more to come where this came from with the lower dollar?</p>
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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/09/A2.jpg" alt=""><br><span><span><br></span></span><span><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">2 - Unemployment rate drops towards 4 per cent (&amp; wages breakout)</span></strong></span></span><br><span><br></span><span>The unemployment rate has declined from 6.3 percent to 5.7 percent at the latest reading. A sharp decline towards 4 per cent isn't in anyone's base case, but it's not out of the question either according to the Reserve Bank's modelling. </span>
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<div><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">3 - Mining investment bust ends</span></strong></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Commodity prices soared by 45 percent last year, and bulk commodities ripped higher by 145 percent, so it wouldn't be a huge surprise if the nadir is in sooner than expected, possibly before the calendar year is out.   </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4 - LNG price increases 50pc</span></strong></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>LNG export volumes are forecast by Treasury to triple between 2015 and 2021. </div>
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<div><span> </span></div>
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<div>The Henry Hub natural gas spot prices is up by more than 75 percent from one year ago, and there could be more to come yet as oil prices rebound. </div>
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<div><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">5 - Property prices rise 12pc in 2017, unleashing a wealth effect</span></strong></span></div>
</div>
<div>
<div><span> </span></div>
</div>
<div>
<div>SQM Research see strong price gains nationally as possible, with prices in Sydney to rise by as much as 18 percent.</div>
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<div><span><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: SQM Research</span></em></span></div>
<div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>The wealth effect on household expenditure doesn't seem all that likely, but stranger things have happened, especially with household wealth passing a record $9 trillion last year.<br><br>
</div>
</div>
<div><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">6 - Infrastructure booms</span></strong></span></div>
<div>
<div> </div>
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<div>
<div>The NSW state government has zero net debt for the first time on record on the back of the biggest stamp duty boom in Australia's history, which should fund some serious infrastructure investment. </div>
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<div><span>Nationally, an infrastructure boom could be underway...</span></div>
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<div><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">7 - China unleashes its capital account</span></strong></span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<div>China has a rapidly urbanising population of 1.4 billion. If the capital account ever gets unleashed to buy international assets in earnest... well, there are only 24 million of us...</div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">8 - Tourism &amp; education boom</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>Tourism and international student arrivals are already booming, and arrivals could rise 10 to 15 per cent over the next year following a streamlining of student visa rules, helping to send annual population growth back towards 450,000 per annum. Chinese visitor spend is also already exploding. <br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">9 - Global growth accelerates, Australian GDP to above 5 percent</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Trump victory becomes a global turning point, and a combination of expansionary policy overseas and a revival of the animal spirits sees Australia's GDP growth accelerate to above 5 percent.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>We won't see all of these unfold of course, but four or five of them could easily play out. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em><span>PETE WARGENT </span>is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. </em></div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Nine upside risks to the Australian economy in 2017: Pete Wargent

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<p>Annual migration to New Zealand hit its highest annual level on record in November 2016 at 70,400. </p>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<p>Australia saw a net loss of permanent and long term 1,830 departures to NZ over the year - mainly Kiwis returning home - although over the last six years the cumulative gain to Australia has been more than 116,000. </p>
<div id="post-body-8831991451369549932" class="post-body entry-content"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/17/NZ1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<br><div class="separator">Although it's tempting to think that Australia is losing population to New Zealand, in reality the opposite is true.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">In fact, an extra 16,000 Kiwis came to Australia on 444 visas on a net basis over the year, taking the total storming past 677,000. </div>
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<div class="separator">The big drivers of migration to NZ are now China and South Africa. </div>
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<br>NZ still has a lower unemployment rate than Australia, which is very much helping its cause.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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NZ migration highest on record: Pete Wargent

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<p class="Body">There are many wonderful quotes on the subject of truth and lots of them are relevant to Australian real estate issues.</p>
<p class="Body">Mark Twain said “A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes” while Winston Churchill is credited with saying “Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened”.</p>
<p class="Body">Benjamin Disraeli gave us “There are three types of lies -- lies, damn lies, and statistics”, a reality which is seen every day in the press release-based coverage of Australian real estate.</p>
<p class="Body">But the one that’s most relevant to real estate today is this one from Nazi propagandist Joseph Goebbels: “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.”</p>
<p class="Body">We see this revealed in the many surveys conducted on real estate issues. In simple terms, the prevailing view is the one most often reported in mainstream media, the truth notwithstanding.</p>
<p class="Body">So if media keeps stating a “national affordability crisis” as a fact, as it does daily, it’s no surprise when a survey reveals that most respondents are very concerned that young Australians are priced out of real estate ownership – everywhere in Australia, apparently.</p>
<p class="Body">Nor was it surprising when another recent survey found that foreign investors are the most popular culprits blamed for rising house prices in Australia. </p>
<p class="Body">This results largely from a cynical exercise by federal politicians taken direct from a script of the iconic UK sitcom Yes Minister. If you want to show concern for an issue but plan to change nothing, here’s what you do: hold an inquiry, string it out as long as you can and, at the end of it, find an unpopular minority to blame for the problem – and then recommend holding another, more in-depth, inquiry.</p>
<p class="Body">That’s pretty much the scenario that’s played out in Canberra over the past 2-3 years. A long inquiry ended by blaming all the problems on dastardly foreign investors. Brilliant, because greedy foreigners are easy to dislike and they don’t vote in Australian elections.</p>
<p class="Body">So, while bringing on a second inquiry (the one that recently concluded by making no recommendations), the Federal Government indulged lots of wonderful sabre rattling and passionate speeches about clamping down on foreigners who break the rules, thereby creating a level playing field for young Aussie hopefuls.</p>
<p class="Body">There were a few highly-publicized instances of foreign buyers being forced to sell back mansions they’d bought in breach of the foreign investment rules. There you go, Australia, problem solved.</p>
<p class="Body">But you’ll notice that prices have continued to rise in our biggest cities. All the fluff and nonsense, all those press statements and acres of newsprint - and not a single house is cheaper in Sydney or Melbourne.</p>
<p class="Body">Why is it so? Because foreign investors have little or nothing to do with the cost of homes out there in the burbs where first-home buyers hunt. They’re a tiny percentage of the overall market and they mostly target high-end houses in the big cities or off-the-plan apartments. They’re not scouring Blacktown or Caboolture or Cranbourne seeking to outbid Aussie first-home buyers.</p>
<p class="Body">But 35 percent of respondents to a RateCity survey believed that the single biggest reason for high house prices was foreign investors. Why? Because media reports keep telling them so and your average punter doesn’t waste a lot of time on independent thought.</p>
<p class="Body">The next most popular culprits in the survey, Australian investors, are also unfairly maligned as the cause of real estate prices rising everywhere.</p>
<p class="Body">And, once again, the two worst offenders get off scot free, because media never talks about them.</p>
<p class="Body">The buying sector that most drives prices is the mob known as next-time buyers – home buyers other than first-time buyers. Most of the time they’re the biggest individual buying cohort and they have the ambition, aspiration and financial capacity to pay a top price. Investors have different motivations.</p>
<p class="Body">And when it comes to new dwellings, the biggest source of high costs are politicians are all levels of government. Local government, state governments and the federal government – they all treat the housing industry as a cash cow and load up the cost of new dwellings with taxes, fees and charges.</p>
<p class="Body">So when new NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian declared that housing affordability was one of her top three priorities, she was (like everyone who has come before her) mouthing platitudes.</p>
<p class="Body">She’s refusing to even consider doing something about the worst of all home-buyer costs, stamp duty, which in Sydney borders on the obscene – nor about the contribution her government makes to the high cost of creating new dwellings.</p>
<p class="Body"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian's housing affordability platitudes

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<div>Within the Consumer Price Index figures, the ABS produces some very useful quality-adjusted figures on rental price inflation. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data series shows how rents can rise very fast when investors are spooked out of the market, such as between 1985 and 1987 (changes to tax legislation) and 2008 (global financial crisis).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>When investor activity is high, on the other hand, the growth in rents is likely to be weaker, and this is also the case when low interest rates make buying a home comparatively more attractive than renting. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In this context, nationally annual rental price growth is at its lowest level in more than 22 years, at 0.6 per cent.</div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TapbS0WJLJA/WIiHzukMDfI/AAAAAAAAhak/ndXk6_mJwuYkNIMYlgamcTe_ZXRg6mH3QCLcB/s1600/A5.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TapbS0WJLJA/WIiHzukMDfI/AAAAAAAAhak/ndXk6_mJwuYkNIMYlgamcTe_ZXRg6mH3QCLcB/s640/A5.jpg" width="640" height="340"></a><br><br>In Perth, annual rental growth has turned negative to the tune of -7.2 per cent.<br><br></p>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uEibKl7v3wA/WIiHzuEUPiI/AAAAAAAAhag/SXTXMTsRc6glPmclKzhWpDZgTpWppJaLgCLcB/s1600/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uEibKl7v3wA/WIiHzuEUPiI/AAAAAAAAhag/SXTXMTsRc6glPmclKzhWpDZgTpWppJaLgCLcB/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="352"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Darwin is by some margin the weakest rental market, with rents declining by -8.2 per cent in 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other side of the ledger, Hobart is the tightest capital city rental market, with quality-adjusted rents increasing by 3.5 per cent in 2016. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UxoHSu6V94w/WIiHzDbkYtI/AAAAAAAAhac/dxkvE9U8dU8nCp-g_SVnqVl0DqN1_KvIgCLcB/s1600/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UxoHSu6V94w/WIiHzDbkYtI/AAAAAAAAhac/dxkvE9U8dU8nCp-g_SVnqVl0DqN1_KvIgCLcB/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="358"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>A look at the long-run figures shows that despite the supply response real rents in both Sydney and Melbourne continued to rise to all-time highs. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4bBihfkI2e8/WIiH0l1XAdI/AAAAAAAAhao/x9GcxFT-oyogKdHKJnWFu4ENGUXxTHbPQCLcB/s1600/A6.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4bBihfkI2e8/WIiH0l1XAdI/AAAAAAAAhao/x9GcxFT-oyogKdHKJnWFu4ENGUXxTHbPQCLcB/s640/A6.jpg" width="640" height="340"></a></div>
<p> In real terms, at the city level Brisbane rents are certain to move lower in 2017 due to the inner city apartments overbuild. </p>
<p>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</p>
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Where capital city rents are falling further in 2017: Pete Wargent

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<p><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">Most indicators suggest that Melbourne has moved into first place as the city creating the most jobs and growth.</span></p>
<p>That said, the New South Wales Treasurer handed down a 2017-18 Budget yesterday revealing that the state's finances are in rude health.</p>
<p>Each month I've been tracking the unprecedented stamp duty take resulting from Sydney's property boom, a gift which has kept on giving.</p>
<p>It was reported yesterday that the state beat projections in 2016-17 to hit another surplus of $4.5 billion, with NSW now in a negative net debt position, boasting a net worth totalling more than a quarter of a trillion dollars, and with enough left over to set up a $15 billion Future Fund.</p>
<p>To complete the virtuous circle the state now plans to unleash a towering $72.7 billion spend on infrastructure, incorporating an impressive range of projects, a further record $7.7 billion for health infrastructure, and $4.2 billion to build 26 new schools and to fund upgrades.</p>
<p>This is a positive move for Sydney, and the harbour city will need to get these projects moving to fill the hole left by any coming downturn in the rate of apartment building.</p>
<p>Melbourne vacancies keep falling</p>
<p>We seem to have reached an inflection point in this property cycle.</p>
<p>Lower interest rates spurred record numbers of property investors into the market since 2012.</p>
<p>But now regulators and banks are winding back interest-only loans and have introduced tougher serviceability measures and higher mortgage rates for investment products.</p>
<p>And this is at a time when demand for rentals has never been higher, with employees changing roles and locations more frequently than in times past, and a record boom in international visitors and students.</p>
<p>While the rate of dwelling construction has been impressive, I recently mused <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/is-sydney-heading-for-rental-crisis">here</a> whether the number of available rental properties will keep up with demand this year and next. </p>
<p>Vacancy rates declined across much of Australia in May, with the national vacancy rate dropping from 2.4 per cent to 2.2 per cent. </p>
<p>Vacancies remained super-tight in Hobart (0.6 per cent) and Canberra (1 per cent), while in Sydney the vacancy rate declined to just 1.8 per cent. </p>
<p>Vacancy rates ticked down in Brisbane, Perth, and Darwin in May, though from elevated levels in the case of Perth and Darwin, where median asking rents continue to slide. </p>
<p>In Melbourne the vacancy rate is almost in freefall, halving from more than 3 per cent at the end of 2014 to a 7-year low of just 1.5 per cent. <span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">Inflation impact?</span></p>
<p>SQM's asking rents index shows rents already rising for apartments in Sydney (up 3.5 per cent over the year to June 20), and quite sharply for apartments in Melbourne (up 5.9 per cent).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/SQM1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/SQM1-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The vacancy rates figures suggest that rental prices may soon level off in the resources capitals, while there is mounting evidence of a tightening rental market in the two most populous capital cities. <span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p>If rents do start to rise again then this has implications for monetary policy since rents form an important part of the consumer price index (combined with rising energy prices, a strengthening rental market could be enough to scope out further rate cuts).<span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p>On the other side of the ledger, oil prices have declined to their lowest level in 9 months. </p>
<p>Overall, the figures suggested that the rental markets in the weakest cities are approaching their cyclical nadir, while most other markets ex-Brisbane are either tight or tightening. </p>
<p>Most notably, the feared oversupply in Melbourne has not materialised - if anything the number of available rentals is failing to keep pace with demand. </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Melbourne vacancies crash to a 7-year low

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<p>Roy Morgan reported from its survey of over 50,000 households per annum that those at risk of mortgage stress fell by some 78,000 from a year ago to 16.8 percent, to sit well below the decade average.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/26/RM1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/26/RM1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Those 'extremely at risk' also fell to the lowest level in well over a decade, which is good to see. </p>
<p>The high risk cohort overwhelmingly comprises lower income households, and is far less represented by households earning $100,000 per annum or more. </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Lower rates reducing mortgage stress

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<p>The distant beating of jungle drums is getting just that bit harder to ignore as the Australian economy continues to pick up the pace.  </p>
<p>It's true that the much stronger jobs figures seen in 2017 are a lagging indicator, but job vacancies surveys are pointing to good things ahead.</p>
<p>And now the timely business survey from National Australia Bank (NAB) is turning north towards further gains.</p>
<p>The reading for business confidence rose to +9, in June 2017 well ahead of the long run average of +6.</p>
<p>And business conditions have stormed to +15, which is the highest reading in 9 years and follows the other key measure of conditions already reported. </p>
<p>The long run average reading for the series is +5. </p>
<p>Granted things promptly got worse last time we reached these heights, but this survey now sits a world away from the stuttering results of 2014.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/13/Nab1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div id="post-body-9183274645780661760" class="post-body entry-content">
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/13/Nab1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: NAB</span></em></div>
<br><div>Conditions looked relatively upbeat across all industries except for mining, with even retail turning in a much improved result. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Capacity utilisation rates point to further declines in unemployment, and even the labour costs index has broken out, suggesting that stronger wages growth may also follow in time. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of the mainland states, Queensland has seen a huge leap in business confidence to +13, now overtaking New South Wales +10. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Consumer confidence is expected to follow this series higher. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rates to follow?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Markets have seen enough and are now pricing a rate hike before the end of 2018.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite this, it seems likely that the core inflation rate for the second quarter of 2017 will remain under the target 2 to 3 per cent range. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The inflation report is due for release on July 27. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
</div>
</div>
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NAB survey burns house down: Pete Wargent

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<p>According to the latest housing finance data release for March 2017 there was $33.2 billion in finance commitments over the month. </p>
<p>The monthly value of commitments increased by 0.9 percent to be 5.3 percent higher year-on-year. </p>
<p>While the value of commitments to investors has slowed over recent months, owner occupier demand lifted slightly in March 2017.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/24/chart-1-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/24/chart-1-2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The data shows that in March 2017, the $33.2 billion in housing finance commitments comprised of $20.2 billion to owner occupiers and $13.0 billion to investors. </p>
<p>The value of owner occupier commitments increased by 0.9 percent over the month to be at its highest level since June 2016. </p>
<p>Investor demand also rose over the month, up 0.8 percent however, it remains well below levels from a few months ago. </p>
<p>Looking at recent monthly data it suggests that demand from owner occupiers has been reasonably steady while the level of demand from investors has eased. </p>
<p>Keep in mind that this data pre-dates the most recent policy announcement from APRA; over the coming months there are likely to be a number of headwinds for investors in the form of: higher mortgage rates, reduced availability of interest-only lending and changes to depreciation benefits for plant and equipment on investment property for new purchases. </p>
<p>Given this we would expect that investor demand is likely to fall further over the coming months.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/24/chart-2-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/24/chart-2-2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Owner occupier demand continues to be fueled by purchases of established housing stock while refinance activity continues to fade. </p>
<p>The $20.2 billion in housing finance commitments to owner occupiers consisted of $1.8 billion for construction of dwellings, $1.1 billion for purchase of new dwellings, $6.1 billion for refinancing of established dwellings and $11.1 billion for purchase of other established dwellings. </p>
<p>The value of lending for construction and purchase of new dwellings has remained at fairly consistent levels over the past year and a half. </p>
<p>The value of refinancing has been trending lower since it peaked in December 2015 and it is now at its lowest level since July 2015. </p>
<p>At the same time, demand for purchases of established dwellings is trending higher and is at its highest level since September 2015.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/24/chart-3-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/24/chart-3-2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Mortgage demand from investors overwhelmingly comes from investors buying established housing rather than new housing. </p>
<p>The $13.0 billion worth of commitments in March 2017 consisted of $1.1 billion from construction of dwellings and $11.9 billion from established housing. </p>
<p>The $1.1 billion in commitments for construction was 6.1 percent higher over the month while the $11.9 billion for established housing is 0.3 percent higher over the month. </p>
<p>The value of lending for investors for established housing is now down -4.6 percent from its most recent peak two months ago and -12.5 percent lower than its historic peak in April 2015.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/24/chart-4-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/24/chart-4-2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Comparing established housing to new housing continues to show that the bulk of housing demand is coming from established housing stock. </p>
<p>Over the month, 85 percent of mortgage demand (excluding refinances) was for established housing stock ($23.0 billion) with the remaining 15 percent ($4.0 billion) for new housing stock.</p>
<p>The data is pointing to ongoing weaker demand from the investor segment of the market and refinances from owner occupiers slowing while demand from owner occupiers for established housing stock is trending higher. </p>
<p>With the lending environment continuing to change, particularly for investors, we would expect that demand from investors will continue to wane. </p>
<p>Higher interest rates, the rationing of the availability of interest-only lending and reduced negative gearing benefits is likely to weigh on investor demand over the coming months.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Investor mortgage demand continues to wane: Cameron Kusher

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Whenever a major research firm publishes its latest data on the movement in capital city house prices, media presents that data as fact.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It also, often, makes sweeping conclusions about the meaning of the figures, relative to affordability, the state of the market and the impact on consumers.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The next firm to publish data will receive the same media treatment: the figures are factual, therefore this is what is means for the market and for buyers and sellers.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The problem is: the two sets of data are quite different and, in some cases, contradictory.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">By the time figures have been published from five different sources - the ABS, the REIA, SQM Research, Domain and the ever-present but often-puzzling CoreLogic are regularly featured - consumers who have been absorbing all the data will be massively confused and terribly misinformed.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It’s rare for all sources to agree on how much city markets are rising or falling - or, indeed, <strong>whether </strong>markets are rising or falling.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">According to CoreLogic’s latest data, Melbourne house prices are lower than 12 months ago - but both the ABS and SQM Research disagree. They both have Melbourne about 3% higher than a year ago.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It’s a similar situation with Adelaide: SQM says the Adelaide housing market is down a little, but the ABS and CoreLogic says it’s risen marginally.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">All three sources believe the Hobart market has risen in the past year, but there is considerable disagreement on how much: CoreLogic says 10.7%, the ABS 15.5% but SQM claims it’s only 6.4%.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">There’s a substantial difference there: SQM says there’s only moderate growth in the Tasmanian capital but the official government source, the ABS, portrays a boom market.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">CoreLogic tells us the Perth housing market is still in the negative but SQM claims that the downturn is over and prices have started to rise again.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Canberra is either the strongest capital city market in the nation, up 10.4% in the annual terms, or it’s rising only moderately at 2% or 3% - depending on whose figures you believe.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">SQM says the average scenario across the eight capital cities is an annual rise of 2.6%, but the ABS says there’s been no meaningful change, while CoreLogic says the national market is down 2%.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Newspaper headlines keep telling that prices are falling across Australia, because they tend to publish the CoreLogic figures, but both the ABS and SQM disagree.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Both those sources have prices higher than a year ago in five of the eight capital cities, and SQM has the national average up 2.6%, but you get quite a different conclusion is you focus on the CoreLogic data.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The only matters on which the three major sources broadly agree is that the Darwin housing market is down about 4% and that the Brisbane house market is up by 1% or 2%.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The message for consumers is: don’t take price data published by media too seriously - and don’t base big financial decisions on the published data.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s2">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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How to analyze city property price data: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder 

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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Here’s the hardest thing for real estate consumers doing research: who do you believe?</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It’s hard to know who’s worth listening to and who is not. There are so many people pumping out press releases, writing commentary pieces and pontificating on television about our housing markets – and only a small fraction of this mass of white noise is worthy of your attention.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">But there are markers which expose the pretenders – clues which allows you to separate the genuine experts.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Here’s how to identify the pontificators you should ignore:-</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>1. They discuss Australian real estate as a single market</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenburg exposed himself as a pretender in a recent column published in The Australian. His opening paragraph stated, as a fact: “</span><span class="s2">Prices in our major capital cities have fallen for 12 consecutive months …”<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3">In doing so, one of our most senior federal politicians perpetuated one of the worst pieces of misinformation currently out there.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3">Frydenburg’s statement is outrageous misinformation. One source that is often quoted, CoreLogic, has the average result for the eight capital cities as a negative figure, but at the same time records that nine of the 14 major market jurisdictions (eight capital cities and six regional areas) have prices higher than a year ago.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3">Other research sources have different figures. SQM Research, for example, records the national average results as a 1.7 percent rise in annual terms, while the latest ABS figures record quarterly price rises in five of the eight capital cities.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3">So the claim that prices have been falling everywhere for 12 months is unsupported by any of the research evidence. The Federal Treasurer is simply parroting misleading media headlines.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">But Frydenberg is not alone in his ignorance. Indeed, he has lots of company, when it comes to extrapolating the Sydney/Melbourne situation into a national downturn. Economists, in particular, are prone to misinforming Australians by discussing the nation as a single market and often getting their analysis wrong by generalising about prices.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">We’d all be better off if they simply shut up.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Contrast that with these recent comments from someone with real credentials, veteran adviser and commentator Noel Whittaker:</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s3">“The problem is that most media commentary focuses on that elusive animal they call the ‘property market’. We might be told that Australian property is overheated, or that the property market has fallen by 5.6 per cent in the last year (in Sydney), or that Perth values have fallen by 12.6 per cent after peaking in 2014.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s3">“But the fact is there is no such a thing as a single property market – not for Australia, not even for a single capital city – there are myriad property markets all doing their own thing. How can you compare a townhouse in Cairns with a mansion in Point Piper? All over Australia some markets may be rising, other markets may be falling, and some may be flat.”</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s3">Whittaker has encapsulated exactly how I see it.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s3">Next time you hear/read a commentator discussing “the Australian property market” or claiming that “Australian house prices have fallen 5 percent”, turn the page or change channels because the talking head/writer is a charlatan pretending to be an expert.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>2. They’re not real estate specialists</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The problem with Josh Frydenberg is that, while he may prove to be a capable Treasurer, he’s not a real estate expert. Residential property is not his specialty.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This is the core problem with many of the prolific pontificators. Economists frequently make the mistake of thinking they can extrapolate their financial knowledge and economic theories to the real estate market. After 35 years as a real estate specialist, I’m still waiting to encounter an economist who understands the peculiar dynamics of real estate markets.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Last week I wrote about my Top 20 Worst Predictions About Australian Real Estate. Most of the people who made that list by getting their predictions horribly wrong were economists who strayed outside their area of speciality.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">True real estate experts who are worthy of your attention are those who are genuine specialists for whom researching markets is a daily routine. They’re also people who don’t treat real estate data as a vehicle for free publicity, but as a means to inform the public by presenting well-considered and balanced analysis.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">They include people like Louis Christopher of SQM Research and Simon Pressley of Propertyology. These are genuine experts who specialise in residential property. I don’t suggest they’re right about everything but they have earned the right to be heard by being real, independent, devoted experts.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>3. They believe it’s all about interest rates</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Most of the pretenders talk about the level of interest rates as the prime determinant of real estate markets and their cycles.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Ask your average economist why Sydney boomed and they’ll tell you it was “record low interest rates”.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This is a ridiculous for several reasons. If the level of interest rates was the catalyst, why no boom in Brisbane? Or Adelaide, Canberra and most of regional Australia. Why have prices fallen in Perth and Darwin during this period of record low rates?</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It’s false logic to assume, as many economists do, that low rates = boom and rising rates = downturn. The two big nationwide property booms of the past 30 years (late Eighties and early Noughties) both occurred during periods of high and rising interest rates.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The end of the Sydney/Melbourne booms occurred with interest rates still at these very low levels.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The profile of the person you should ignore is an economist who rants about “the Australian property market” in the context of national factors like interest rates and APRA decisions – and generally tends to feel that everything that happens in real estate markets is an outrage because it doesn’t fit with their economic models of what prices should do and where values should be.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The genuine expert will discuss individual markets, include different sub-markets within each of our major cities, and will understand the fundamental importance of the underlying local economies, influenced by population trends, infrastructure spending, jobs creation and supply-demand factors.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s3">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s4"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p5"><span class="s3"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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