<p>Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.</p>

<p>While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.</p>

<p>A new Colliers report, <em>Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions</em>, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.</p>

<p>The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.</p>

<p>Construction Skills Queensland's <em>Horizon 2032</em> report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.</p>

<p>The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]</p>

<p>Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.</p>

<p>"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.</p>

<p>"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."</p>

<p>Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.</p>

<p>"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]</p>

<p>Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.</p>

<p>Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.</p>

<p>Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.</p>

<p>The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.</p>

<p>Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.</p>

<p>"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.</p>

<p>"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."</p>


Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Joel Robinson

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

<p>It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]</p>

<p>Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.</p>

<p>"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.</p>

<p>"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.</p>

<p>"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]</p>

<p>Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.</p>

<p>Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]</p>

<p>Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.</p>

<p>"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.</p>

<p>"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."</p>

<p>Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]</p>


Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

<p>Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.</p>

<p>The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]</p>

<p>Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.</p>

<p>"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.</p>

<p>"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]</p>

<p>La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.</p>

<p>Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.</p>

<p>The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.</p>

<p>Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.</p>

<p>"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.</p>

<p>Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]</p>


La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

<p>Brisbane developer Red &amp; Co's decision to include dual key apartments in its debut Gold Coast apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO Varsity Lakes</a>, is proving to be one of the project's biggest drawcards, with buyers quickly snapping up the flexible residences.</p>

<p>More than half of the project's 36 dual key apartments have already sold, helping drive COMO beyond the 50 per cent sold mark within the first month of launch.</p>

<p>The strong response highlights growing demand for apartment designs that can adapt to changing lifestyles, with buyers increasingly looking for homes that accommodate multi-generational living, provide rental income opportunities or simply offer greater flexibility over time.</p>

<p>Located on the shores of Lake Orr, COMO will deliver 156 apartments across 16 levels, with the dual-key residences forming a limited release within the broader development.</p>

<p>Each combines a primary two-bedroom apartment with a fully self-contained studio on a single title, connected by a shared foyer and lockable internal door. The design allows owners to house ageing parents, adult children or guests while maintaining privacy, or lease the secondary residence to generate additional income.</p>

<p>Just 17 of the original 36 dual key apartments remain available.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=367096]</p>

<p>The innovative configuration combines two fully self-contained residences on a single title, typically comprising a primary two-bedroom apartment alongside a separate studio residence, connected via a shared foyer and lockable internal door.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The model is proving particularly attractive to owner occupiers navigating changing family dynamics and the realities of the current housing crisis.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363511]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/npa">NPA</a>&nbsp;CEO Andrew Erwin said dual key living was resonating strongly with modern buyers because it delivered both financial flexibility and practical lifestyle benefits.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“The housing crisis and rising cost of living are fundamentally changing how Australians think about home ownership,” Erwin said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Dual key apartments provide a genuine solution for families who want to stay connected while maintaining independence. Parents can help adult children save for a future home, ageing parents can remain nearby without moving into aged care, and owners still retain privacy and flexibility.</p>

<p>“Importantly, buyers are also recognising the financial advantages. It creates the opportunity to generate additional income from part of the home without the holding costs associated with owning a separate investment property.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363509]</p>

<p>Unlike traditional dual occupancy arrangements, the residences operate under a single title, meaning owners only incur one set of body corporate fees, council rates and holding costs.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The secondary residence can also evolve over time - functioning as guest accommodation, a home office, creative studio or private retreat before later becoming an income-producing asset.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co</a>&nbsp;Director and Co-Founder David Laverty said the strong early sales reflected growing buyer urgency and changing priorities within the market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Securing more than half of COMO’s residences within such a short timeframe is an outstanding result and a clear endorsement of both the design and location,” Laverty said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Buyers are responding to the combination of location, connectivity and amenity, but ultimately it’s value relative to other East Coast markets that is driving enquiry.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>“We’re also seeing strong interest from owner occupiers looking for homes that can adapt with them over time. Flexibility has become one of the most important considerations for buyers in today’s market.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363515]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, COMO features a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom residences with 2.7-metre ceilings and larger-format floorplans aimed at owner occupiers, downsizers and lifestyle-focused buyers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The development will feature an extensive rooftop recreation and wellness offering including a 25-metre lap pool, sundeck, barbecue and dining areas, gym, sauna, plunge baths, landscaped gardens, wellness spaces and rooftop pickleball and paddleball courts.</p>

<p>The remaining dual key apartments range from 137 sqm to 167 sqm and include generous three-bedroom layouts with separate self-contained studio accommodation and dual parking.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Erwin said the dual key concept represented a broader shift in how Australians would live in the future.</p>

<p>“People want homes that can evolve with their lives,” he said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“A dual key apartment can suit a family today, support an ageing parent tomorrow, and potentially generate income later on. That adaptability is becoming incredibly valuable in the current environment.”</p>

<p>Prices currently range from $2,115,750 to $2,583,000.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135546]</p>


Inter-generational living drives demand for COMO’s dual key apartments as housing pressures reshape buyer priorities 

<p>Builder-developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ceerose">Ceerose</a> has doubled down on its Leichhardt ambitions, lodging its second State Significant Development Application (SSDA) in the suburb in the last six months.</p>

<p>Their newest proposal seeks to transform a former industrial precinct into a new residential community centred around the adaptive reuse of one of the site's heritage warehouse buildings.</p>

<p>The new project, on a 6,930 sqm block at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-76-william-street-leichhardt-nsw-2040">40–76 William Street</a>, will bring more than 200 apartments to a suburb that has seen little to no new supply in recent years. It follows Ceerose's late 2025 SSDA for a mixed-use apartment project on nearby Parramatta Road, signalling the developer's growing investment in Sydney's Inner West.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the redevelopment would involve the demolition of four existing industrial buildings while retaining and adaptively reusing the site's most significant warehouse. The retained structure would anchor a new residential precinct comprising five interconnected buildings arranged around a large central landscaped courtyard, with heights stepping from five storeys along the surrounding residential streets to 11 storeys at the William Street corner.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7258c54c-8167-479e-8361-2d5fca9915b4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010B%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%202.jpg?VersionId=S9DQfxu_jpcB5LrAEYFUbyMzg5odW6i5" /></p>

<p>According to the Architecture Design Report by Woods Bagot, the proposal "seeks to create a residential village centred around a generous green heart while celebrating the site's industrial heritage through the adaptive reuse of the existing warehouse building."</p>

<p>The development would comprise 203 apartments, with 188 proposed as build-to-sell residences, alongside 15 affordable housing apartments.</p>

<p>Rather than treating the retained warehouse as a standalone heritage object, Woods Bagot has sought to weave the site's industrial history throughout the masterplan. The proposal retains the north and west facades of the landmark corner warehouse, while new buildings reinterpret the site's brick-and-steel industrial language through their material palette and architectural expression.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9e8c64c2-881b-49e1-8c90-6b6acaaa45b6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010C%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%203.jpg?VersionId=Qm8_8H_Xrg_sc4Mdjc59vlAcKF_5wRTb" /></p>

<p>The design is organised around what Woods Bagot describes as a "green heart", a landscaped communal open space that reinstates the leafy character removed when the site became an industrial storage facility. A new pedestrian laneway running through the site would improve permeability between William, North and Francis streets, linking residents through landscaped public spaces while activating the ground plane.</p>

<p>Residents would have access to communal gardens, rooftop open space and shared recreation areas distributed throughout the development. Sustainability has also been prioritised, with the project targeting an average 7.9-star NatHERS rating. Proposed initiatives include rooftop solar generation, rainwater harvesting, passive solar design, naturally ventilated lobbies, extensive cross-ventilation and the reuse of existing building fabric to reduce embodied carbon.</p>

<p>The adaptive reuse strategy became a defining feature of the application after heritage investigations found only one of the site's industrial buildings could feasibly be retained. The Heritage Impact Statement concludes that preserving the key warehouse façades while referencing the site's industrial character throughout the new development provides an appropriate balance between renewal and conservation.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="efffafdb-594f-4e2b-a067-921fd51c05e1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010D%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%204.jpg?VersionId=DPmE4.k16YRt0i27hEZVtJAffarpvUfx" /></p>

<p>"Retention and adaptation of the site buildings has been explored but found not to be feasible except for the tallest building, whose street facades will be retained," the heritage report states.</p>

<p>"The proposed building will interpret the brick and steel character of the subject site, including reuse of some components and construction of a large 'sawtooth' structure in the proposed open space."</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3bfef2b5-83f5-40cd-9cab-767092f34266" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010E%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%205.jpg?VersionId=7asb3i_ql4ybbuJOUb5UHBEIy0Q9t.DF" /></p>

<p>The William Street site is located around 300 metres from Leichhardt North Light Rail station and a short walk to Norton Street's retail, dining and hospitality precinct. The surrounding area has increasingly become a focus for urban renewal given its proximity to public transport and the Parramatta Road corridor.</p>

<p>Ceerose, founded by Edward Doueihi in 1998, has become one of Sydney's more active apartment developers, with completed projects including The Alex Collective in Alexandria, Abbie's Lane in Annandale, and the award-winning Munro House in Elizabeth Bay. They are currently delivering Belgravia, 17 luxury apartments in Potts Point.</p>


First look: Ceerose doubles down in Leichhardt with adaptive reuse of former warehouse site

<p>Sydney’s property market is known for high prices, competitive bidding, and mounting pressure on first home buyers. But change is on the horizon.</p>

<p>From late 2025, eligible first home buyers in New South Wales will have access to a new federal government initiative aimed at addressing affordability: the Help to Buy Scheme.&nbsp;</p>

<h2>What is the Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

<p>The program introduces a shared equity model intended to reduce the upfront cost of entering the property market, particularly in high-demand urban areas such as Sydney.</p>

<p>The scheme operates under a shared ownership structure in which the federal government takes an equity stake of up to 40 per cent for new homes, or 30 per cent for existing dwellings. This arrangement allows eligible buyers to significantly reduce their loan size and avoid the added cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI).</p>

<p>Under this model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required. The government’s contribution is not a loan but a co-ownership stake in the property. As such, there is no interest or rent charged on its portion.</p>

<p>Because the government’s equity combined with the buyer’s deposit typically meets or exceeds the 20 per cent threshold, LMI does not apply. The remaining balance, generally between 60 and 70 per cent of the property’s value, is financed through a standard home loan with a participating lender.</p>

<p>The government's equity in the property remains in place until the buyer chooses to repay it voluntarily or until the property is sold. Buyers can buy back the government’s share over time, in increments of at least five per cent, depending on their financial situation.</p>

<p>There is no fixed repayment timeline, but the amount to be repaid will be based on the property's market value at the time of repayment, not the original purchase price.</p>

<h2>How do you qualify for the&nbsp;Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

<p>To qualify for the Help to Buy Scheme, applicants must meet the following conditions:</p>

<ul>
	<li>Be an Australian citizen at least 18 years of age.</li>
	<li>Be a first-home buyer who does not currently own property.</li>
	<li>Intend to live in the property as their primary residence.</li>
	<li>Earn less than $100,000 per year for individuals, or $160,000 for couples.</li>
	<li>Purchase a property within the regional price caps, currently $950,000 in Sydney, though this is expected to rise to approximately $1.3 million ahead of the program’s launch.</li>
</ul>

<p>While the Help to Buy Scheme does not solve affordability challenges across the board, it does offer a more accessible pathway for a defined segment of the market, particularly younger buyers with moderate incomes who have been priced out of traditional lending routes.</p>

<p>The scheme is expected to commence in NSW in late 2025, as part of a national rollout.</p>


Under the new model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required

Help to Buy Scheme: What first home buyers in NSW need to know

<p>The First Home Owners Grant (FHOG) is a government initiative designed to help eligible first-time home buyers by offering financial assistance towards the purchase or construction of a new home.</p>

<p>While the FHOG is a nationwide program, it is administered separately by each state and territory, meaning the eligibility criteria, grant amounts, and property requirements can vary depending on your location. This means that the amount available and the conditions attached to the grant will differ, so it is important to check the specific guidelines for your state or territory.</p>

<p>It’s important to note that the FHOG is just one of several incentives available to first home buyers. In most states and territories, the grant is not linked to stamp duty exemptions or concessions, with the exception of the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The FHOG is typically a one-off payment, reducing the overall cost of purchasing or building a new home before any stamp duty concessions are applied.</p>

<p>Below, we provide a breakdown of the First Home Owner Grants available across Australia, outlining the specific details for each state and territory.</p>

<h2>New South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="252" data-start="225">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $600,000. For land purchases and owner-builders, the threshold extends to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong data-end="413" data-start="389">Stamp Duty Benefits:</strong> Provides full stamp duty exemption for homes valued up to $800,000, with concessions available for properties up to $1 million.</p>

<h2>Victoria South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Provides a $10,000 grant for first-home buyers purchasing or building new homes valued up to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Benefits</strong>: Offers full stamp duty exemption for properties up to $600,000, with concessions available up to $750,000.</p>

<h2>Queensland First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="920" data-start="893">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers $30,000 for contracts signed between 20 November 2023 and 30 June 2025. The FHOG applies to new homes valued up to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong data-end="1162" data-start="1135">Stamp Duty Concessions:</strong> Provides additional concessions for properties valued up to $800,000.</p>

<h2>Western Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $750,000 in the southern regions and up to $1 million in the northern regions.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Concessions:</strong> Available for homes valued up to $600,000 for transactions entered into on or after 9 May 2024.</p>

<h2>Australian Capital Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="1617" data-start="1590">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Replaced by the Home Buyer Concession Scheme, offering full stamp duty concessions for eligible buyers.</p>

<h2>South Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Provides up to $15,000 for new homes, including houses, apartments, and townhouses. As of 6 June 2024, there is no property value cap for eligibility.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Relief:</strong> Available for new homes and vacant land purchases.</p>

<h2>Tasmania First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant</strong>: Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes and off the plan purchases.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Exemption</strong>: Between 18 February 2024 and 30 June 2026, first home buyers of established homes valued up to $750,000 receive a full exemption on property transfer duty.</p>

<h2>Northern Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> The Northern Territory provides a $10,000 grant for new homes only. Additional government grants and concessions are available for first home buyers.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Exemption</strong>: The only stamp duty exemption available to property buyers is the House and Land Package Exemption (HLPE).</p>

<p><em>Eligibility criteria and application processes differ across states. Prospective buyers should refer to their respective state revenue offices for full details on grant availability, conditions, and additional concessions.</em></p>


Every First Home Owner Grant for new property by state

<p>In the ever-evolving landscape of sustainable architecture and environmentally conscious design, systems and ratings in place can help determine the energy efficiency of residential buildings in Australia.</p>

<p>Australia has multiple building rating systems that evaluate energy efficiency and sustainability in existing and new building designs.</p>

<p>Some systems assess individual building components, while others provide an overall rating for the entire structure.</p>

<p>A rating system ensures that homes are comfortable and energy-efficient, whether you are buying, renovating, or building.</p>

<p>NatHERS (Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme) is a common way for new homes to meet energy efficiency requirements.</p>

<p>As new developments continue to shape the urban environment, understanding NatHERS ratings becomes essential for developers and homeowners. This article delves into the concept of NatHERS ratings, their significance, and how they contribute to creating energy-efficient homes.</p>

<h2>What is NatHERS?</h2>

<p>NatHERS is a national initiative implemented by the Australian government to promote energy efficiency in residential buildings. The scheme aims to provide a standardised method for assessing the thermal performance of homes, considering factors such as insulation, orientation, ventilation, and building materials.&nbsp;</p>

<p>NatHERS ratings are the most common way new homes meet the National Construction Code's (NCC's) minimum energy efficiency requirements.&nbsp;</p>

<p>NatHERS assessments provide thermal and whole-home ratings for new homes, townhouses, and apartments.</p>

<p>The rating helps evaluate the energy performance of buildings, guides homeowners and developers to make informed decisions about the energy efficiency of their properties, and encourages the construction of more sustainable, comfortable, and cost-effective homes.</p>

<h2>How NatHERS Ratings Work</h2>

<p>NatHERS ratings are determined through four accredited software tools (AccuRate, BERS Pro, FirstRate5, HERO) using a calculation engine CSIRO developed to predict building temperature based on various factors.</p>

<p>The tools can model complex effects of building mass, insulation, window size, and other elements.</p>

<p>The outcome is a star rating that reflects the building's overall thermal efficiency, indicating how well it can maintain a comfortable indoor temperature without excessive reliance on heating or cooling systems.</p>

<p>The star rating scale ranges from 0 to 10, with a 6-star rating being the minimum requirement for compliance with the National Construction Code (NCC).&nbsp;</p>

<p>Achieving a higher star rating demonstrates a commitment to energy efficiency and sustainability, as the building is better equipped to minimise its environmental impact and reduce long-term energy costs.</p>

<p>Anyone can use NatHERS tools, but accredited assessors can provide certified ratings and professional advice.</p>

<h2>Benefits of Higher NatHERS Ratings</h2>

<p><strong>Energy Efficiency:</strong> Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings are more energy-efficient, requiring less heating and cooling energy. This reduces the structure's carbon footprint and lowers occupants' energy bills.</p>

<p><strong>Cost Savings:</strong> Homes with higher NatHERS ratings are generally more energy-efficient, resulting in reduced energy consumption for heating and cooling. This translates to lower energy bills for homeowners, making sustainable living environmentally friendly and economically viable in the long run.</p>

<p><strong>Environmental Impact:</strong> Lower energy consumption directly translates to a reduced environmental impact. Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings contribute to the overall goal of mitigating climate change by lowering greenhouse gas emissions associated with heating and cooling systems.</p>

<p><strong>Improved Comfort: </strong>Buildings with high NatHERS ratings offer better thermal comfort to occupants. Proper insulation, well-designed ventilation, and optimal orientation maintain a consistent and comfortable indoor temperature, providing occupants with a more enjoyable and healthier space.</p>

<p><strong>Market Value and Desirability:</strong> Higher NatHERS ratings can enhance the market value of a property. As energy efficiency becomes a more significant consideration for homebuyers, a well-rated building may attract a premium price and stand out in the real estate market.</p>

<p><strong>Compliance with Building Codes:</strong> NatHERS ratings are a vital component of the National Construction Code (NCC), and compliance with these ratings is often a mandatory requirement for new developments. Local councils and planning authorities may set minimum energy efficiency standards that must be met to obtain development approval.</p>


The Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme (NatHERS) is a crucial initiative shaping the future of energy-efficient, resilient, and cost-effective homes. With its recent upgrades, NatHERS has evolved into a world-leading tool for the building sector, supporting the global commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Staff Writer

What is a NatHERS rating in new off the plan apartment developments?

<p>Mixed-use developments have gained significant popularity across Australia in recent years due to their unique blend of residential, commercial, and recreational spaces.</p>

<p>Unlike traditional single-purpose developments, mixed-use projects offer a harmonious integration of various functions within a single locale.</p>

<p>Residential units seamlessly coexist with commercial establishments, retail outlets, dining venues, entertainment hubs, and recreational facilities, with the combination not only enhances convenience but also fosters a vibrant lifestyle and a sense of community.</p>

<h3>Convenience and accessibility</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments are designed with convenience in mind. They often integrate residential units with commercial spaces, retail outlets, restaurants, and recreational facilities, creating a self-contained community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=114215 project_image_fid=204874]</p>

<p>The proximity allows residents to enjoy the convenience of having essential amenities and services within walking distance. Whether it's grabbing a cup of coffee, going grocery shopping, or accessing healthcare services, everything is conveniently located, saving residents time and effort.</p>

<h3>Vibrant lifestyle and community</h3>

<p>One of the major advantages of mixed-use developments is the vibrant lifestyle they offer. With a diverse range of amenities and communal spaces, residents have ample opportunities to interact, socialise, and build a sense of community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107714 project_image_fid=214122]</p>

<p>The presence of parks, community centres, and shared spaces fosters a lively atmosphere, encouraging residents to engage in various activities and events. The vibrant lifestyle within these developments creates a unique sense of belonging and camaraderie among the residents.</p>

<h3>Potential for higher rental yields and property value appreciation</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments tend to attract a broad range of tenants and buyers due to their versatile nature. This high demand can result in higher rental yields for investors and potentially lead to property value appreciation over time.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=212887]</p>

<p>The integration of commercial and retail spaces attracts businesses, which can provide a stable rental income stream. Additionally, the popularity of mixed-use developments often drives up property values, making them a potentially lucrative investment in the long term.</p>

<h3>Enhanced security and maintenance</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments typically have comprehensive security measures in place. With controlled access points, CCTV surveillance, and professional security staff, residents can enjoy enhanced safety and peace of mind.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108019 project_image_fid=212658]</p>

<p>Additionally, these developments often have dedicated maintenance teams responsible for the upkeep of common areas, landscaping, and infrastructure. This ensures that the overall appearance and functionality of the development are well-maintained, creating a pleasant living environment for residents.</p>

<h3>Live-work-play balance</h3>

<p>One of the key attractions of mixed-use developments is the ability to achieve a desirable live-work-play balance. The integration of residential and commercial spaces allows residents to live closer to their workplaces, reducing commuting time and improving work-life balance.</p>

<p>The proximity to various amenities and recreational facilities encourages an active and healthy lifestyle. Residents can easily access fitness centres, parks, restaurants, and entertainment options, all within the same development, leading to a more fulfilling and convenient way of life.</p>


alisonwarters@gmail.com

The top five reasons to buy in a mixed-use development

<p style="line-height: 1.38;">When buying a property, everyone needs to be aware of the additional costs that come as part of the buying process.</p>

<p style="line-height: 1.38;">Often the largest outlay, after the deposit which goes to the bank, is stamp duty.</p>

<h2 style="line-height: 1.38;">What is Stamp Duty?</h2>

<p>Stamp duty is an extra tax to pay the government when you buy land, a property, and other certain assets.</p>

<p>It happens when the legal ownership is transferred. It can also be known as property transfer duty or transfer duty.</p>

<p style="line-height: 1.38;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="415" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/C32BWkB5--c" title="YouTube video player" width="660"></iframe></p>

<h2>Who pays Stamp Duty?</h2>

<p>In some circumstances, you may get an exemption. For some states, you won’t have to pay for stamp duty if you are a first home buyer or a pensioner for houses under a particular price. There are also stamp duty concessions, where you may be entitled to a discount.</p>

<h2>How much does Stamp Duty cost?</h2>

<p>Each state has different rules which affect how much you need to pay. These rules can affect the rate you pay, and the timeframe you will need to pay in. Before you buy land or a property, make sure you check the up-to-date information for your state’s stamp duty.</p>

<p>You can use a free stamp duty calculator online to see approximately how much you’ll need to pay. Find out if you’re eligible for an exemption by enquiring on a project via Urban!</p>

<p>Overall, the stamp duty you need to pay will depend on:</p>

<ul>
	<li aria-level="1">How much your land/property is worth</li>
	<li aria-level="1">Where your land/property is located</li>
	<li aria-level="1">What type of land/property it is</li>
</ul>

<p style="line-height:1.38">Want to find out more? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@UrbanAustralia?utm_source=YouTube&amp;utm_medium=Video&amp;utm_campaign=Subscribe&amp;utm_id=Subscribe">Subscribe to our YouTube channel</a> for more property videos.</p>


Ellen Walker

Off-the-plan property explained: What is stamp duty?

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>This week, historic negative economic outcomes were seen in both Europe and the US. Financial markets instead focused on the wave of stimulus announced, particularly in the US.</p>
<p>Of the data released, the first focus for markets was the Markit PMI’s for key developed nations. Whereas the shock ex-China to date has been concentrated in manufacturing, services were hit hard in the March preliminary reading. In Japan, the service PMI fell from 46.8 in February to 32.7 in March; in the US, a similar decline was seen from 49.4 to 39.1; while in Europe, the loss was a staggering 24pts from 52.6 to 28.4 – a very unfavorable comparison to the GFC low of 39.2 in 2009. </p>
<p>While severe, these shocks pale in contrast to the deterioration seen this week in US initial jobless claims. As we flagged last week, the first few weeks of the US contagion have seen a never-before-seen increase in US unemployment. Following the 71k increase in the last report to 282k claimants, in this update a further 3 million new claimants were reported, taking initial claims to 3.28 million. Prior to this outcome, the historic peak was 695k back in 1982.</p>
<p>Note that while the 2020 initial outcome is almost five times the scale of the 1982 peak, the labour force has only grown 50% since. Moreover, this week’s outcome will not be a one off. It is still early days in this crisis; job losses have been staggered; and there have been numerous reports of claim backlogs to be assessed. Clearly the US is facing into an immense shock. </p>
<p>It is not surprising then that the US Congress has responded with a stimulus package also of historic proportions ($2 trillion). This will include support to all low and middle-income households in the form of cash handouts; extended unemployment benefits; loans to small business which can be forgiven in time if the funds are used for certain purposes such as keeping on staff; as well as loans to support large business cash flow.</p>
<p>These are significant measures, but are unlikely to materially reduce the shock coming to their economy. This is in part because the stimulus will only partly offset the loss of income from job loss and as confidence’s decline will hit discretionary spending hard. But primarily it is because the US COVID-19 case count continues to rise rapidly, meaning the country is nowhere near a point of stabilisation which it can begin to recover from. Highlighting this, the New York Times today reported that the US now has more confirmed cases than China experienced. Moreover, the global state of affairs also remains dire, with severe cases continuing to increase rapidly across Europe.</p>
<p>The shock to growth coming from abroad is also having a clear impact on Australia and New Zealand. But more pressing is the domestic spread of COVID-19. The current situation for our two nations has been summarised this week by Westpac Group Chief Economist Bill Evans and New Zealand Chief Economist Dominick Stephens. For Australia, further detail on the expected depth of the deterioration in our labour market and economy was also released by Westpac Economics, as was our forecast of the implications for the Federal Government’s fiscal position and government debt.</p>
<p>For our labour market, given the implementation of stricter restrictions on our economy, we now anticipate a rise in the unemployment rate to a peak of 11% by mid-2020, to be sustained through the September quarter. This will come as a result of the loss of over 800k jobs and as the economy contracts by 4.0% over the year to September 2020.  As the economy is restored to a more normal footing in the September and December quarters, activity will bounce and the unemployment rate fall – we believe to 8.8% end-2020 and 8.0% end-2021.</p>
<p>Still, that is a much weaker end point than anticipated prior to COVID-19. Hence, not only will the recession of 2020 hit the Government’s fiscal position, but there will also be a lasting impact. On top of this shock to activity and Government revenue is the cost of stimulus, to steady the economy amid immense uncertainty.</p>
<p>In summary, we anticipate a deterioration in the Federal budget from balance in 2018/19 to a 4.5% of GDP deficit ($90bn) in 2019/20 and a deficit of 8% of GDP ($160bn) come 2020/21. In 2019/20, 2ppts ($40bn) comes as a result of policy stimulus while 2.5ppts ($50bn) is due to the apparent cyclical deterioration. The 2020/21 deficit of 8% of GDP meanwhile includes 3ppts ($60bn) from policy stimulus and 5ppts ($100bn) is due to cyclical deterioration. As a result, the supply of government securities on issue will rise by $250bn to $820bn (40% of GDP) by June 2021.</p>
<p><strong>ELLIOT CLARKE</strong><em> is a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42750" target="_blank">senior economist at Westpac</a> </em></p>
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

A global crisis and stimulus of historic proportions: Elliot Clarke

<html><body>
<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">After a relief rally, the oil price has dropped back towards new cycle lows as the Coronavirus threatens to lead to a prolonged slump in demand.</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">A few more buying opportunities looking likely this week. </p>
<div>The price of Brent Crude is now -67.2 per cent below its January highs and we're staring at the lowest price level in 17 years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hvDFQnnUDFc/XoEkUmFcDwI/AAAAAAAA0-g/kJsvvAY_qkA1kCAlrBxC2lwTrPX1OuK-wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Crude.jpg" width="640" height="318" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1600"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Some analysts think that the oil price could hit $10/barrel over the coming months, which from my perspective would represent 'back up the truck' territory.<br><br><strong>Stage 3 rolled out</strong><br><br>There have been some more promising numbers for New Zealand and Australia on new cases of the virus.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The short, sharp shutdown looks likely to be the base case strategy to flatten the curve and buy valuable time for medical centres and hospitals.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria ramped up its response to Stage Three, with spot fines of up to $1,600 for social distancing breaches, while gatherings of more than two are no longer to be allowed (excluding members of the same household).<br><br>Queenslanders now also face $1,300 spot fines for breaches. </div>
<div>
<br><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
</div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Oil prices are at a 17-year low: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">Globally there are now more than 657,000 cases of the Coronavirus, and more than 30,400 deaths.<br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HM41pHmKAsY/Xn7wR2xMvLI/AAAAAAAA08U/bG7s8MQo5zkSOQxZJbwM7OzigYI8UDjUQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/LOG.jpg" width="640" height="450" data-original-height="569" data-original-width="806"></div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><br>On a global basis new cases continue to climb to 65,000 per day and rising.<br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-R6pcDJYkWbQ/Xn7wokBLYZI/AAAAAAAA08g/VMdwPR0gQL4wgpDxU9IL9VUU8mYRr9uaACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/C2.jpg" width="640" height="344" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="911"></div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div>With the exponential increase continuing, it's only a matter of time before total global known cases ascend to 1 million and beyond. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the positive side of the ledger, China appears to have all but eliminated new cases, and a number of other countries appear to have arrested the virus. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Germany now has more than 58,000 cases, but its curve does now appear to be flattening.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Tragically, Italy has seen more than 92,000 cases and 10,000 deaths, but with luck here too the exponential growth may soon be curtailed. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Spain's figures still look nasty, but the curve is gradually flattening. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Increasingly the biggest disaster of all looks as though it might be in the US, where cases have exploded to 120,000 with little sign of any promising progress to date.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>Australia shutdown</strong><br><strong><br></strong>How about in Australia?</p>
<div>Today, new known cases increased by 460, taking total known cases to 3,640, with 14 deaths to date (mainly over those aged in their 70s or older). </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-U0VzMI3HDdc/Xn8hj5RCmgI/AAAAAAAA08o/1nU4s_mE34srRpq1lVS9p4-mJr9GaupiwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/C1.jpg" width="640" height="400" data-original-height="593" data-original-width="946"></div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div>That does represent an increase from 370 new cases on March 24, which was four days earlier, but at this stage the situation doesn't appear to be deteriorating catastrophically.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Granted, a lot may change in this regard within a week or two. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>So we're by no means out of the woods yet, but for whatever reasons things do appear to be shaping up somewhat better in Australia than elsewhere.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aAbsD3Y4PHw/Xn8h6M-ybsI/AAAAAAAA08w/OMN88HSHX8U2YCeIm2eZi47L7kOC-lZ7QCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="470" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="893"></div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div>And that's in spite of multiple cruise ship blunders and numerous earlier examples of flagrant disregard for social distancing rules.<br><br>And, indeed, it's in spite of more widespread testing per capita in Australia than in most other countries (Korea, Germany, and Russia have held more tests than we have, but of course their respective populations are far larger than ours, at only 25 million). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Only a virologist can explain the possible reasons for this; perhaps the climate helps?</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>A 9-point plan for re-opening Australia</strong></p>
<div>This is a global pandemic with global ramifications, but ultimately the world won't end, and figuratively speaking it'll be every man for himself when it comes to the critical question of how to kick-start national economies again.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Here's a 9-point plan for how we might be able to achieve it soonest and most effectively, from the perspective of a perpetually under-qualified blogger, should the daily figures begin to improve over the next fortnight:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>1 - Initiate a shelter-in-place order</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>States already have shelter-in-place action plans, so these should be used immediately for all non-essential workers and businesses. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Aussie economy has effective already had a coronary, so it's now imperative to get daily new cases of the Coronavirus under control as soon as humanly possible.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The sooner we can do that, the sooner we can think about re-opening. </div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>2 - Wage subsidies</strong><br><br>The government has spoken much about its 'stimulus packages the equivalent of 10 per cent of GDP', but the truth is much of this has been in the form of loan facilities and other non-cash items.</p>
<div>Whether by following a similar model to Boris Johnson in the UK or through another approach using the existing transfer system, the government must announce wage subsidies for stood down workers to keep them solvent until such time that the economy can be opened for business again.<br><br>Retail workers are being stood down at an alarming rate, while hospitality and tourism is also being smashed.<br><br>But these workers can return to work soon too, provided that they can be tided over with subsidies.<br><br>Furthermore, with Treasury or RBA funding, banks may also be better served over the medium term to offer interest-only mortgage terms at an interest rate of, say, 2½ per cent to any borrowers in distress, for as long as needed (in addition to the arbitrary 6-month payment holiday terms already being promoted). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Interest-only mortgage terms with the use of an offset account can be an ideal means for families and other mortgagors to begin building up a safety buffer as get back on their feet from a financial perspective.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rental relief measures will presumably also follow, perhaps implemented at the state level. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>These are extraordinary measures, but they're also extraordinary times.<br><br>Shutting down the economy is effectively a national disaster scenario, and it needs to be approached as such. </div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>3 - Set up a COVID-10 Delivery Unit</strong></p>
<div>Create a dedicated COVID-19 Delivery Unit to purchase, import, manufacture, or find any other ways to both stockpile and circulate facemasks, surgical masks, respiratory equipment, ventilators, gowns, protective gear, and treatment drugs, and prepare as many ICU beds as practicable around the country. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even <em>if</em> the virus gets under control in the short term, there could yet be a second, third, and fourth wave, so it's better to go hard here rather than die wondering (for want of a better phrase). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>If there's available funding for testing and research into vaccines, cures, and effective treatments, then implement that too. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>4 - Fund a COVID-19 Testing and Tracing Unit</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia must acquire millions of testing kits, and put in place widespread and rigorous testing and tracing regime, with an enforceable action plan for quarantining and treating those with symptoms, and tracing the recent contacts of any known infected persons. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>5 - Government messaging</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Testing and tracing will likely need to continue long after the curve of new cases is flattened, and to this end government messaging should encourage Aussies to keep a daily journal of their movements, and a daily record of folks they may have had close contact with each day (this is a suggestion I read about at the excellent <em>Calculated Risk</em>, and as usual it's a very thoughtful one). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One of the best-known finance authors once reportedly said that people need to hear simple messages over and over again before they truly sink in...a point with which I concur.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Therefore, appropriate messaging needs to be hammered home repeatedly on social distancing, the wearing of facemasks, washing hands, sanitising, hygiene, avoiding touching objects unnecessarily, and a raft of other key points. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The wearing of facemasks has, to my knowledge, normally only been common practice amongst Aussies of Asian origin, but common sense says we should all consider adopting the practice (and maybe gloves too).</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>6 - Re-open local economies with few cases</strong></p>
<div>The government faces the nigh on impossible task of balancing the public's health against the human and economic cost of keeping businesses closed.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Take the example of the capital city of Darwin.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Northern Territory was already in recession before the COVID-19 issue surfaced, and now its borders must be closed and its businesses will be hit harder still by any restrictive measures. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yet the entire territory has just 15 known cases of the Coronavirus to date, and only one death.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9gbrFTI3xpE/Xn8mfKh2aeI/AAAAAAAA084/MmkNK0vSRMoQk9SnCFIDGM8SAMP5CISAgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/C2.jpg" width="640" height="436" data-original-height="662" data-original-width="970"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>At the appropriate point the towns and cities (and then states and territories) with the fewest cases will need to see restrictive measures lifted.<br><br>This can soon be an opportunity for Australia's regions to lead the economy forward again, which would make a pleasant change from the heavy reliance on Sydney and Melbourne of the past 7-8 years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Virus hotspots may need to remain shuttered for longer, but for towns and cities with the fewest cases the curfews and restrictive measures can be lifted soonest. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>7 - Re-open the Aussie borders, but with mandatory testing</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The capability should exist to introduce and maintain mandatory testing for all entrants into Australia on an ongoing basis. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It goes without saying that those showing symptoms will need to be quarantined and appropriately treated. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the one hand these measures may seem draconian, but on the other hand, what might the alternative look like? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many of the cases in Australia apparently originated overseas, so airports and the border are evidently a high risk area. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>8 - Allow businesses to re-open</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>As daily new known cases begin to decline, allow businesses and trading to re-open, but with social distancing still to be practised to the extent possible.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Businesses should be encouraged to allow staff to work from home where practicable, and group meetings discouraged where possible.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover, an over-arching rule of common sense must apply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>9 - An ongoing fight</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's not yet entirely clear whether re-infection is possible, or whether there will be second and third waves of the virus in those locations where cases of the virus have initially been controlled. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Therefore, we must remain vigilant well beyond the point that the economy is up and humming again.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>A balancing act</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There is, of course, no 'right' way to do these things. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Every day that companies or self-employed workers are closed for business inflicts more pain, so there are many challenging decisions to be made in real time by those in power to balance the potential risks versus respective health and economic costs. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Only in hindsight will experts know what could or should have been done with more certainty, but this 9-point plan is what's swirling around my head tonight.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>In short: </strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Issue shelter-in-place orders until the curve of new cases is flattened;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Go hard, fast, and early to wage subsidies for workers and cash payments for businesses, with further mortgage and rental relief packages to follow;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Build up a war chest of medical supplies, and introduce a nationwide testing, tracing, and quarantining program;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Hammer home the 'best practice' messaging, and encourage record-keeping with respect to personal movements and contact with others;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- As daily new cases begin to decline, re-open locations and economies with the fewest known Coronavirus cases first, and gradually roll this re-opening out nationwide; and </div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Enforce mandatory testing for all entrants to Australia, with quarantine as required.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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A 9-point plan for re-opening Australia: Pete Wargent

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<p class="legacy"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px;">Along with home delivery of </span>groceries<span style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px; color: #333333;">, </span>pharmaceuticals<span style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px; color: #333333;"> and </span>alcohol<span style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px; color: #333333;">, demand for food delivery is booming.</span></p>
<p>Services such as Uber Eats and Deliveroo have become essential to cafes and restaurants that can now only sell takeaway food.</p>
<p>It is good news for the likes of Uber, whose stock price has risen since it announced a ten-fold increase in the number of restaurants signing themselves up to <a href="https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/uber-eats-growth-coronavirus-delivery-140101683" target="_blank">Uber Eats</a>.</p>
<p>But it’s a situation that has provoked serious questions. Not only about whether delivery services are safe, but <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/godforbid/the-covid-19-conundrum/12095750" target="_blank">whether it’s ethical to use them</a>.</p>
<p>Digital platforms like Uber Eats and Menulog are not, after all, ideal employers. In fact, they don’t regard themselves as employers at all, merely facilitators of work by “independent contractors”.</p>
<p>Food delivery drivers and riders often work for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/20/food-delivery-bike-couriers-in-australia-being-underpaid-by-up-to-322-a-week" target="_blank">less than the minimum wage</a>, and have no employee rights such as sick leave.</p>
<p>Now we are collectively relying on them to provide an essential service during social distancing, we need to ask what, as a society, we owe these workers in return.</p>
<h2>Vulnerable to exploitation</h2>
<p>We’re interested in how this economic crisis affects food delivery drivers and riders due to our research into the experience of migrant gig workers.</p>
<p>Our research has found migrants are already “socially distanced”, without deep networks of family or friends. They are vulnerable to exploitation and discrimination.</p>
<p>Most food delivery work is done by migrants, through third-party digital platforms like Uber Eats and Menulog. The platforms treat drivers and riders as independent contractors, not employees with the protections and rights of employees.</p>
<p>A 2019 survey <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/revealing-the-true-size-of-australias-gig-workforce/" target="_blank">commissioned by the Victorian government</a> suggested about 7% of the workforce used digital platforms to get gig work, the most common being Airtasker (35%), Uber (23%), Freelancer (12%), Uber Eats (11%) and Deliveroo (8%).</p>
<p>Previous research suggests <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-way-they-manipulate-people-is-really-saddening-study-shows-the-trade-offs-in-gig-work-79042" target="_blank">many choose gig work</a> simply because it is better than other forms of low-paid work.</p>
<p>Now food delivery workers face pressure from those displaced from such jobs in hospitality or retail. Complicating the situation is the lack of clarity about whether those on temporary work visas are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/22/what-australias-189bn-coronavirus-economic-rescue-package-means-for-you" target="_blank">eligible for income support</a> announced for other workers.</p>
<p>Platforms don’t owe gig workers a minimum wage so can sign up as many “independent contractors” as they like. This improves the service for customers, and increases profit for the platform, but means individual deliverers make less money.</p>
<h2>Increased health risks</h2>
<p>Many delivery services are <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/coronavirus-australia-uber-eats-deliveroo-drive-thru_au_5e71a846c5b63c3b6486e11a" target="_blank">implementing contactless delivery</a> procedures. But the lack of defined employer responsibility in the platform economy means patchy attention to the extra physical and mental health risks gig workers now face.</p>
<p>Unions and others have urged delivery platforms <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-03-06/gig-economy-workers-uber-deliveroo-ola-coronavirus-outbreak/12022072" target="_blank">to provide protective equipment</a> such as gloves, face masks and sanitisers. Responses from platforms have been limited.</p>
<p>This was Uber Eats’ response on March 17, by its regional general manager for the Asia Pacific, <a href="https://www.uber.com/en-AU/newsroom/covid19aus/" target="_blank">Jodie Auster</a>:</p>
<p><em>Our plan to address challenges born by COVID-19 includes making A$5 million in funding available for independent restaurants across Australia and New Zealand. The multi-million dollar fund will allow restaurants to deploy promotions to attract customers and will help restaurants time promotions to suit their individual business needs.</em></p>
<p>What Auster didn’t mention was a plan to issue safety gear, though she did note the company had started a campaign “reminding Uber Eats users that they can request deliveries be left on their doorsteps”.</p>
<p>Not surprisingly, delivery workers are scared <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/union-seeking-protections-for-delivery-drivers/12094366" target="_blank">they will catch the coronavirus</a>.</p>
<p>Uber says it will financially assist drivers and riders “diagnosed with COVID-19 or placed in quarantine by a public health authority” for a period of <a href="https://www.uber.com/en-AU/newsroom/covid19aus/" target="_blank">up to 14 days</a>.</p>
<p>But what if a worker with viral symptoms wants to self-isolate as a precaution? There’s no sick leave or workers compensation, and they risk “deactivation” if work isn’t accepted.</p>
<h2>Legal protection</h2>
<p>Social distancing measures mean the delivery economy and the health of the general population are now intimately linked.</p>
<p>To secure and safeguard this now essential service, it is time the law ensured gig workers have the same legal rights and protections as other employees.</p>
<p>We need the delivery drivers coming to our doors to be healthy. That health depends on their safety as well as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/food-ordering-safe-ethical-coronavirus-with-seamless-uber-eats-should-i-get-takeaway" target="_blank">economic and social inclusion</a>.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134406/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tyler-riordan-1002045" target="_blank">Tyler Riordan</a>, PhD Candidate, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a></em>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gerhard-hoffstaedter-9125" target="_blank">Gerhard Hoffstaedter</a>, Associate professor, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a></em>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-robinson-958290" target="_blank">Richard Robinson</a>, Research Fellow/Hospitality Management, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/delivery-workers-are-now-essential-they-deserve-the-rights-of-other-employees-134406" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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Delivery workers are now essential, they deserve the same rights

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<p class="legacy"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px;">The novel coronavirus sees Australia facing major unprecedented health and economic crises. The key to preventing a downward spiral of the economy is to avoid a collapse in incomes of newly laid-off workers who won’t be able to afford what they normally purchase, and temporarily closed businesses which won’t be able to pay rents or other fixed costs, nor buy goods and services to trade.</span></p>
<p>It is likely that once a vaccine is delivered by science, or even before, the economic recovery will begin. Thus the question: what are the most equitable ways to handle this major short-term trauma?</p>
<p>There is an instrument that should be used to add to the size and efficacy of the necessary fiscal boost. Income contingent loans provide extra financial support without threatening future fiscal solvency.</p>
<h2>What are income contingent loans?</h2>
<p>Most people in Australia would be familiar with our HECS (Higher Education Contribution Scheme) for tertiary education fees. Students take a loan from the government to cover the cost of their university now, and pay it back when they are earning over a certain threshold in the future.</p>
<p>In what was a world-first, Australia implemented this style of loan scheme in 1989 and it has now been copied in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/economics-of-education-review/vol/71/suppl/C">around ten other countries</a>.</p>
<p>For those with a HECS debt, when incomes are low in certain periods, such as from unemployment, looking after an infant or caring for aged parents, no repayments are required at that time.</p>
<p>The government gets the money back later when the debtor’s financial situation has improved. This is known as an “income contingent loan”.</p>
<h2>How could we use these loans for the COVID crisis?</h2>
<p>It’s useful to distinguish three categories of financial stress that have emerged and which an income contingent loan could assist:</p>
<p>1) for individual employees recently, or soon to be, laid off</p>
<p>2) small businesses forced by health rules or insufficient trade to suspend activity</p>
<p>3) large businesses forced by health rules or insufficient trade to suspend activity.</p>
<p>Income contingent loans can be designed for all three cases although each is quite different.</p>
<p><strong>1. Now jobless employees</strong></p>
<p>For employees now jobless, a HECS-type system could take the form of the government providing a fixed payment (for example $5,000) per person. Some part of that payment would be required to be repaid according to existing (or new) HECS parameters.</p>
<p>Those people whose incomes do not recover repay nothing, or much less than those who regain their financial security (who would repay fairly quickly). The experience of 30 years of efficient HECS collection, including lessons learned, has shown us this would all be administratively straightforward.</p>
<p><strong>2. Affected small businesses</strong></p>
<p>In the case of an income-contingent loan for business, a different approach should be used, that doesn’t involve personal incomes. What is needed instead is a revenue-contingent loan – a system designed and promoted by Linda Botterill and Bruce Chapman nearly 20 years ago.</p>
<p>The reporting of business revenue is a quarterly legal requirement of business through the existing Business Activity Statement which is used to collect the GST. Unlike profits, revenue cannot legally be manipulated to suit the timing of repayments. The revenue-contingent loan obligation would be linked to the Australian Business Number.</p>
<p>In the case of a small business, the government could provide a loan, which would be capped at a level reflecting a firm’s capacity to repay when revenues recover. This could be a fixed amount (for example 25%) of the average of the past three years of annual revenue.</p>
<p>To minimise the chance of non-repayment, eligibility could be restricted to firms that have a good chance of future solvency as reflected, for example, in them having been around for a fixed number of years (for example three years).</p>
<p>The government would need to set a repayment rate, and past modelling has revealed small rates of say 5% to 8% of future annual revenues would be sufficient.</p>
<p>To make sure all this would be equitable for business and healthy for future budgets, the government would need to now model different loan amounts, and different collection and interest rates.</p>
<p>Modelling the different assumptions for budgetary planning would be required to be more precise about the policy details.</p>
<p><strong>3. Bigger businesses</strong></p>
<p>In the case of assistance for not-so-small business, the sums of money needed for the current situation necessitate the involvement of the banks in cooperation with the government.</p>
<p>Government is not equipped to take over large-scale commercial borrowing. But a revenue-contingent loan would still have an important role to play in such a partnership with commercial banks for current not-so-small financial borrowing needs.</p>
<p>The arrangement of joint bank and government lending would be the government providing a revenue-contingent loan which is a proportion of the bank loan. The government loan could repay the bank loan in the very short-term until business reopens and recovers.</p>
<p>A partnership of this kind would be ideal for business, which then has the capacity to repay the normal loan even when there is no short-term revenue coming in.</p>
<p>It would also be beneficial for the banks, which would then have far higher prospects of full loan recovery. It also provides a future return to the taxpayer for the government support of banks during these difficult economic times.</p>
<p>The provision of income contingent loans to individuals, and the revenue contingent loans for business, would have major potential to sustain the Australian economy during a sharp temporary downturn, while not putting additional pressure on future fiscal solvency. This is a bridge to a sustainable recovery.</p>
<p><em>The authors are fellows of the Academy of the Social Sciences Australia. However these views are their own and not representative of the Academy.</em><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134998/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/linda-botterill-92314" target="_blank">Linda Botterill</a>, Professor in Australian Politics, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-canberra-865" target="_blank">University of Canberra</a></em>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-chapman-2186" target="_blank">Bruce Chapman</a>, Director, Policy Impact, College of Business and Economics, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank">Australian National University</a></em>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/glenn-withers-12585" target="_blank">Glenn Withers</a>, Professor of Economics, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank">Australian National University</a></em>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/warwick-mckibbin-9129" target="_blank">Warwick McKibbin</a>, Chair in Public Policy, ANU Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292" target="_blank">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/give-people-and-businesses-money-now-they-can-pay-back-later-if-and-when-they-can-134998" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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Give people and businesses money now they can pay back later (if and when they can)

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Economists just love to forecast. And forecast often. Indeed they can’t help themselves – even when there is a paucity of past experiences to provide guidance, economists are out there forecasting.</p>
<p>At this stage, clearly it is near impossible to make accurate predictions. Much depends on how quickly the number of COVID-19 cases can be controlled. Also much depends on how quickly treatments and a vaccine can be found for the virus.</p>
<p>These are extraordinary times with no exact precedent.</p>
<p>The best approach to forecasting is shown by the International Monetary Fund, expressing in general terms the likelihood of a global recession in 2020 but not speculating on the size of the fall.</p>
<p>Australia is also at risk of recession. But it is important to note that the Reserve Bank and Federal, State and Territory governments are providing massive support for the economy and financial markets. The economic impact of COVID-19 is also quite variable across businesses and sectors. Travel, recreation and hospitality businesses have been most affected. But supermarkets, electrical goods stores, some transport businesses and sporting goods retailers have noted firmer demand. And infrastructure construction has been little affected.</p>
<p>Notably, in past recessions caused by an external shock (such as 1975 due to the oil price shock), the Australian economy has bounced back quickly. But again, much depends on how quickly the virus can be contained.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/3/27/recessions%201.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p> <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/3/27/recessions%201.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Source: CommSec </p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The Global Financial Crisis (GFC)</span></p>
<p>The keenness for economic forecasting was certainly a feature of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) – an economic event with few parallels. Economists were certain that Australia would follow the world into recession. But recession was avoided. (A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters where economic activity (gross domestic product or GDP) declines.)</p>
<p>In October 2008 and February 2009, massive stimulus was provided by the Government and central bank, and it worked to stabilise the economy. In fact when we look back at the GFC many actually believe that the economic support measures were too generous. The economy contracted 0.5 per cent in December quarter and GDP bounced back by 1.0 per cent in the March quarter. The economy didn’t experience another quarterly contraction in output until March 2011 (Cyclone Yasi) even including the period of the 2009 swine flu.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Past recessions</span></p>
<p>But this period is different. It has been caused by an external shock – and indeed a medical, not financial shock. Most downturns or recessions – both here and abroad – have occurred through financial means, basically policy mistakes. That is, central banks have responded to periods of “irrational exuberance” by lifting rates too far, causing people to cut spending, and causing businesses to trim spending, hiring of staff and investment.</p>
<p><strong>So when have recessions occurred in Australia?</strong> There have been seven periods of recession since quarterly records were first maintained in 1959: 1961, 1971/72, 1975, 1977, 1981/82, 1982/83 and 1991 (many observers view the period from 1981-1983 as one event). Clearly there were also economic downturns before 1959 such as the Great Depression.</p>
<p>The common finding is that most of these periods of recession also occurred in advanced nations, notably the US. Most recessions occurred after a period of tighter financial conditions.</p>
<p>One downturn of note was 1975. And the US and other advanced economies also experienced recessions at that time. The US was in recession from November 1973 to March 1975. And a key cause was an external “shock” – a financial rather than medical event – the first oil shock in 1973 when oil prices soared by 400 per cent in response to an oil embargo. Central banks responded to soaring inflation by lifting interest rates.</p>
<p>In January 1973 the 90 day bank bill rate was 4.70 per cent. Rates steadily increased over 1973 and 1974, peaking at 21.75 per cent in May 1974. Ahead of the 1975 recession, 90 day bills still stood at 9.8 per cent.</p>
<p>Interestingly the Australian economy contracted by 2.6 percentage points over the September and December quarters of 1975 and then rebounded 4.4 per cent in March quarter 1976, expanding over the next year.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/3/27/recessions%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/3/27/recessions%203.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Source: CommSec </p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Medical emergencies</span></p>
<p>Three medical emergencies that are most cited are SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) in 2003, swine flu in 2009 and the 1919 Spanish influenza. The SARS epidemic first appeared in late 2002 in Guangdong, China and ended in July 2003. Swine flu appeared in April 2009, extending to August 2010. </p>
<p>The main impact SARS had on the Australian economy was on the travel sector. Australian GDP was weak in 2003, rising just 0.4 per cent in the first half before rebounding 3.4 per cent over the second half of the year.</p>
<p>Assessing the impact of the 1919 Spanish flu is complicated by the end of World War 1. It has been estimated that real aggregate gross domestic product declined by 9.5 percent between 1914 and 1920. The loss of 60,000 service people in the war depressed economic activity, and extended through the early 1920s.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Unemployment</span></p>
<p>In past economic downturns, unemployment has understandably lifted. But, as stressed, no two periods are the same. While Australia didn’t experience a recession in the GFC, the unemployment rate did lift in the slower economy – lifting from 4 per cent to 5.9 per cent in the space of 11 months. </p>
<p>In the recessions of 1990-1991 and 1981-83, unemployment rose from 5-6 per cent to 10-11 per cent in around a two-year period.</p>
<p>In the current period, the jobless rate stands at a near 8-year low of 5.1 per cent. As the downturn has been caused by an external ‘shock’ the jobless rate will likely rise more quickly. A raft of retail, hospitality, arts and recreation staff have been stood down. However, job creation is occurring in supermarkets, grocery stores, some health businesses and delivery/courier businesses.</p>
<p>While unemployment will likely lift quickly to record levels, the government has lifted cash payments to prevent broader job losses. It is anticipated that jobless rates will fall quickly when the virus is contained and businesses are allowed to re-open.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/3/27/recessions%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/3/27/recessions%204.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Source: CommSec </p>
<h1><span>Sharemarket impact </span></h1>
<p>It may sound like a broken record but these are extraordinary times with no exact precedent. The volatility has been breath-taking as has the speed of sharemarket falls from highs.</p>
<p>After hitting record highs on February 20, the All Ordinaries index entered a ‘bear market’ 12 days later, down 21.3 per cent from highs. A bear market is generally defined as a fall of more than 20 per cent from highs.</p>
<p><span>The US Dow Jones index took 18 days to fall by more than 20 per cent from the February 12 record high. </span></p>
<p>The key issue for investors has been the difficulty in valuing companies in response to a largely unique external shock.</p>
<p><span>Past sharemarket downturns have been induced by economic or financial factors. </span></p>
<p><span>The speed of the current sharemarket contraction has similarities to the October 1987 sharemarket crash. On both occasions, sharemarkets were perceived to have become expensive, raising the prospect of corrections or a period of market consolidation to restore value for investors.</span></p>
<p><span>Interestingly, in the current period, sharemarkets initially were supported despite news of COVID-19. The initial perception was that the virus would be confined to China and the economic impact would be limited to ‘supply chains’ across the globe.</span></p>
<p><span>In 2007, it took 84 days for the All Ordinaries index to fall more than 20 per cent from the highs. In 1987, the sharemarket hit highs on September 21. It took 20 days for the All Ords to fall 10.9 per cent off its highs, before the massive 25 per cent fall on October 20.</span></p>
<p><span>Compared with 2020, again there was nowhere near the speed of falls in sharemarket declines over periods such as 1970-74, 1981-82, or 1990/91 when there were times of economic downturn.</span></p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Looking back even further</span></p>
<p><span>Data on the Australian sharemarket goes back to 1875 although the first sharemarket was formed in Melbourne in 1861. There have been numerous events and shocks over time to affect the sharemarket including wars, commodity price shocks (oil, wool), financial crises and the technology crash. </span></p>
<p><span>But in terms of the severity of the downturn and volatility of the sharemarket, the COVID-19 virus crisis has few parallels. It is good to know that there is such a rich history of data to research. The important point is that each experience is different, especially in times of recovery from lows. But experience shows that it can take time for the sharemarket to regain highs. While no two periods are exactly the same, the sharpness of the current decline in share prices may lead to a quicker recovery process.</span></p>
<p><span>In relatively recent times, in 1960, it took 42 days for the sharemarket to fall 20 per cent from the September 16 high. It actually took 717 days for the sharemarket to regain its 1960 highs.</span></p>
<p><span>In the Great Depression, it took 6½ years for the Australian sharemarket to regain the February 1929 high. And it took more than 6 years for the September 1875 high to be exceeded.</span></p>
<p><span>Still, in weak economic times and affected by the Spanish flu, the sharemarket actually rose 19 per cent over 1919 and 1920.</span></p>
<p><strong><span>Residential property prices</span></strong></p>
<p>In Australia, consistent data on home prices goes back to 1980. It is also important to note that there can be marked differences in property cycles. For instance in the current environment, Perth and Darwin are at different points in the cycle from, say, Hobart or Canberra.</p>
<p>In the 1982 recession, house prices peaked in April 1982 and fell 6.4 per cent over the next year. It took 21 months to regain its previous highs.</p>
<p>In the 1990/91 recession there was no appreciable downturn in house prices.</p>
<p>In the 2007/08 GFC, house prices peaked in February 2008 and then fell 8.5 per cent over the next 11 months. It took 21 months for house prices to regain previous highs.</p>
<p>In the current period, house prices fell 9.3 per cent in the 21 months from October 2017. In the recovery since August 2019, house prices have lifted 7.8 per cent.</p>
<h1><span>What are the implications for investors?</span></h1>
<p>These are extraordinary times. Australia and the globe are experiencing a shock like no other. But it is important to note – unlike periods such as the Great Depression – governments and central banks are ‘doing all that it takes’ to support businesses, workers and the more vulnerable members of society. </p>
<p>Labs are working on vaccines and treatments such as those for malaria and tuberculosis are showing promise in killing the virus.</p>
<p>Economies were in good shape ahead of the crisis, in fact it was hard to find better economic ‘fundamentals’ in Australia.</p>
<p align="left">While it will be hard to avoid recession in Australia, it is not impossible. Sharemarkets will settle when virus cases peak (the curve flattens). And while unemployment will likely lift to historic highs, people will quickly return to work when businesses are allowed to re-open.</p>
<p align="left"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/3/27/recessions%202.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p align="left"><em><span lang="en-US"> <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/3/27/recessions%202.png" alt=""></span></em></p>
<p align="left"><em><span lang="en-US">Source: CommSec </span></em></p>
<p align="left"><em><span lang="en-US"><em><span>CRAIG JAMES</span> is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em></span></em></p>
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

COVID-19: Making sense of the economic impact: CommSec's Craig James

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<p>Commercial landlords have been directed by the PM Scott Morrison to "sit down" with their commercial office, retail and industrial tenants to work out how to get through the coronavirus crisis.</p>
<p>And if commercial landlords don't then they risk missing out payments in the government's third rescue package.</p>
<p>"If you aren't going to engage in that sort of cooperative activity, between bank, between tenants and between landlords, then the sort of support that you might otherwise expect to receive, you will not receive," Mr Morrison said.</p>
<p><span>"We are in unchartered territory, but the goal should be shared and that is a business can reopen on the other side, not weighed down by excessive debts because of rental arrears, a landlord has a tenant so that they can continue into the future to be able to support the investments that they have made and banks have clients," he added.</span></p>
<p><span><span>Finance Minister Mathias Cormann said on Insiders on Sunday that commercial landlords had limited capacity to replace tenants, and he urged a co-operative approach.</span></span></p>
<p>The six month ban on evictions, which has yet to be fully outlined, applies to commercial tenants as well as residential.</p>
<p><span><span>Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said he envisaged rental payments proportionate with rental income in these reduced circumstances would be part of the commercial tenancy </span></span>discussions.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU">The president of the REIA, Adrian Kelly said while he is very supportive of the Government's efforts, the REIA was disappointed</span> with the simplistic approach of the Prime Minister’s message.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">He suggested the PM's message "ignores the tenancy arrangement and thus raises more questions than it answers."</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“Real estate agents are the middle persons who facilitate the agreement between landlords and tenants and manage it as well as the property.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU">“There are some 70,000 property managers, principals, real estate agents and representatives across Australia.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU">"</span>Tenants don’t negotiate with landlords.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU">“Banks have already indicated that they are </span>offering customers the option to defer home loan repayments for up to six months<span lang="EN-AU">.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">“We need to address the support of agents so that what the Prime Minister wants, in terms of landlords and tenants - finding a solution to get through the crisis, can be achieved.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">“Estate agents will work very hard to facilitate the role between landlord and tenant, and to do this they need income.”</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU">“I note that National Cabinet is still to consider details,” concluded Mr Kelly.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU"> </span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
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Commercial landlords directed by PM to "sit down" with commercial tenants to work through the coronavirus crisis

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-body entry-content">3.283 million was the print for US initial jobless claims.</p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RBecYw6kZlY/XnyisN9hhXI/AAAAAAAA05k/GrFvyXTDTR0Mei8pw3Wzzy0tLMiCnHdwwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/US2.jpg" width="640" height="486" data-original-height="772" data-original-width="1015"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Terrible stuff.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All previous crises are a tiny blip on the radar by comparison.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It’s hard to compare with previous recessions...as there is simply no modern comparison.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The US unemployment rate could exceed 30 per cent by the end of next quarter, and Canada faces a similar mess.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Consumer-driven economies without consumers will lie in ruins for as long as the shutdowns continue.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia’s Coronavirus figures look somewhat promising, but in America they’re spreading widely.</div>
<div>
<br>There are now more cases in the US than in China, or indeed any other country.<br><br>
</div>
<div><strong>Co-ordinated stimulus</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>More so than in any previous crises this will result in co-ordinated stimulus packages on an Olympic and unprecedented scale.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>So far rates have been cut to zero, and we’re looking at an initial $2.2 trillion US government stimulus package, and more is likely to follow.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Federal Reserve also dropped an initial salvo of US$700 billion in quantitative easing, and since it’s promising ‘QE infinity’ for as long as it takes, it’s impossible to know how much printing will follow (answer: a lot).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Small businesses and households, as in Australia, will need access to loans or other funds to tide them through to the other side.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It won't just be America going down this route.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All around the world government debt is set to soar and central banks are pushing interest rates down to zero. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A number of markets have been crushed, but US stocks are still expensive, with only really the energy sector looking interesting.<br><br>Overall the expected returns on US and Aussie stocks are not yet of much interest at these levels and the bargains lie elsewhere. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One step at a time, Australia needs to bring down cases of the Coronavirus first and foremost.</div>
<p class="post-body entry-content">---</p>
<div>Some more old data.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australian household wealth increased by +3.3 per cent in the December 2019 quarter, to hit a record high of $11.31 trillion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The main driver in Q4 was a +3.9 per cent increase in residential property prices.<br><br>Aussie total household wealth increased by +10 per cent in 2019.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia's average net worth per capita hit a record high of A$443,000 by the end of calendar year 2019.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-K60ksQnjY9s/Xn0t8289OhI/AAAAAAAA050/Dl8Ui-sG1uUpBT7CdZJoYuNXUbA7p4x6wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1373"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content">And the average or mean wealth per household had soared to well over A$1 million.</p>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wohuFMx9yng/Xn0uHYFhUUI/AAAAAAAA054/ibAp_V88F1MquVR-wNs0Oj8HBhNvr4fuwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1435"></p>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>CoreLogic will report next week that housing prices increased in Q1 2020, including in the month of March 2020 itself.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, property  activity will now stall, and equities crashed in the first quarter of 2020 which will bring down superannuation balances.<br><br>Meanwhile, unemployment looks set to double...at least.</div>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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Unemployment looks set to double... at least: Pete Wargent

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<p>Small business across Victoria are doing it tough as a result of coronavirus.</p>
<p>If a landlord and tenant are dealing with a situation where the tenant is having difficulty paying rent at this time, the<span> Victorian Small Business Commission (VSBC) </span>encourage both the landlord or their agent and tenant to communicate as early as possible.</p>
<p>"This is really important, as it helps to make sure both parties are aware of and understand each other’s position," the VSBC suggest.</p>
<p>They advise if tenants intend to request rent relief, they might need to provide business records to the landlord or agent.</p>
<p>Tenants in this situation need to keep accurate business records to help show how trade has been affected.</p>
<p>If a landlord, agent or tenant is unable to obtain a response from the other party, we might be able to help through the <a href="http://www.vsbc.vic.gov.au/dispute-resolution/how-mediation-works/" target="_blank">VSBC’s mediation service</a>.</p>
<p>VSBC mediations are currently running, with changes implemented in response to COVID-19.</p>
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Victorian small business struggles to deal with the coronavirus

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Demographic trends</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>A quick break from the Coronavirus news which is evidently usurping the planet!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS reported that the capital cities population of Australia increased by +303,100 in FY 2019.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Greater Sydney, which includes the Central Coast, increased by +87,100 or +1.7 per cent, and remained the most populated city at 5.31 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, Melbourne grew at the fastest pace, up by +113,500 or +2.3 per cent to 5.08 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As in previous years the densest locations included parts of inner-city Melbourne, Sydney's Potts Point-Woolloomooloo, and Ultimo-Pyrmont.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Brisbane's population increased quickly too, at +2.1 per cent or +52,600, to increase to 2.51 million.<br><br>
</div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YZHXmPmN8rA/XnsDFu-mUhI/AAAAAAAA04c/9nd1a1rjcTkeSzTb4O3YdWMvXjSkJ6pVwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/ABS.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YZHXmPmN8rA/XnsDFu-mUhI/AAAAAAAA04c/9nd1a1rjcTkeSzTb4O3YdWMvXjSkJ6pVwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/ABS.jpg" width="640" height="346" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="665"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: ABS</em></span></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Capital cities accounted for 79 per cent of population growth over the financial year, reported the ABS, and some 17 million Aussies now live in the capital cities.</div>
<p><br><span>Immigration will effectively be paused in 2020 due to the...well, you know what!</span><br><br><span><br></span></p>
<div class="separator"> </div>
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