<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> has lodged plans for a $750 million, three-tower mixed-use precinct that would complete the long-running redevelopment of Carlton's former Carlton United Breweries site.

The proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/185-195-queensberry-street-carlton-vic-3053">46-78 Bouverie Street and 185-195 Queensberry Street</a> spans a 6,468 sqm site, the last remaining undeveloped parcels within the former brewery's 2007 masterplan.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the development will comprise two purpose-built student accommodation towers and a third build-to-sell apartment tower above a shared commercial podium and basement.

Across the three towers, SP Setia is proposing 606 build-to-sell apartments and 1,499 student accommodation units containing 2,009 beds.

The apartments will sit in the tallest tower, which will rise nearly 200m and 55 storeys. It will become&nbsp;one of the more substantial new build-to-sell apartment projects at the northern edge of Melbourne's CBD.

The apartment mix is weighted toward smaller inner-city product, with 188 studios, 206 one-bedroom apartments, 192 two-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedroom apartments

<img alt="First look: SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8271bc87-1b0a-41b7-ac73-a425ee375261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/3_2.png?VersionId=G4lw23o90B1boX4k4dj7rdz2ZEajS9wy" />

Part of the precinct will be a large-scale&nbsp;3,684 sqm supermarket and a further 2,198 sqm of speciality retail, creating close to 5,900 sqm of new commercial space within the precinct.

But one of the biggest components of the proposal is what sits between the buildings.

Around 4,650 sqm, or roughly 72 per cent of the site, will be publicly accessible open space, incorporating plazas, pedestrian connections, landscaped laneways and retail spill-out areas.

The ground plane is intended to finally complete pedestrian connections envisaged when the CUB masterplan was first approved nearly two decades ago, stitching together Victoria Street, Queensberry Street, Bouverie Street and Swanston Street through the former brewery precinct.

Urbis said the development would "complete the CUB precinct", with the public realm providing important north-south and east-west connections through what is currently the final undeveloped portion of the masterplanned site.

SP Setia is also exploring a new linear park within the Bouverie Street road reserve, with the concept to be developed further with the City of Melbourne through the planning process.

The proposal is being pursued through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program under Clause 53.23 for significant residential development with affordable housing.

The planning report acknowledges the proposed heights exceed those contemplated under the original Comprehensive Development Plan and masterplan, but argues the built-form context has changed considerably over the past two decades.

Urbis said the three towers would instead create a stepped transition between Carlton and the Hoddle Grid, rising progressively from the 94.1-metre Tower One along the Queensberry Street edge to the 199.44-metre Tower Three closer to the established CBD-scale buildings to the south.

<img alt="SP Setia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e885a07a-592c-40fc-bf82-e6dbaf32da54" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.52.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7s_ErUkSKAdY1mAWp3GRZgMNCGtwhk5m" />

SP Setia plans to deliver the development across three stages.

Stage One would deliver the basement, podium and retail areas for the entire precinct alongside the first student tower. Tower Two would follow in Stage Two, before the 606-apartment Tower Three is delivered as the final stage.

If approved and delivered, the project would close out a redevelopment process that has been underway since the former brewery masterplan was approved in 2007, adding more than 2,600 student beds and apartments to a precinct already home to Swanston Central, the Barak Building, RMIT Design Hub and several large student accommodation developments.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct

Melbourne developer Lowe Living is seeking to add to its growing bayside apartment pipeline, filing plans for a boutique eight-residence development in tightly held Middle Park.

Lowe Living, which has built much of its development portfolio across Melbourne's affluent bayside and south-east suburbs, is behind the plans for the 730 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/123-125-erskine-street-middle-park-vic-3206">123-125 Erskine Street</a>, just off Armstrong Street and within the Armstrong Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre.

The developer is seeking approval for a five-storey residential building above two basement levels, with just eight large-format apartments and 18 car spaces.

“This is a deliberately very different proposition for us,"&nbsp;Tim Lowe, Co-Founder of Lowe Living, said.

"Eight residences is exceptionally boutique, but that's precisely what this site calls for.

“There is a strong community in Middle Park and the surrounding suburbs who have spent decades building a life here. They no longer want the maintenance of a large period home, but they aren't prepared to compromise on space, quality or location. We think there is a real opportunity to capture that hyper local market. A site like this rarely comes to market.”

<img alt="Lowe " data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="875fe572-0f14-4d90-9e11-55b28dd07731" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.42.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GDNQRv9BfpR9r1zkZ5UDyUM4ZvpIksut" />

The low-density proposal has been designed by Cera Stribley and is being progressed through the Victorian Government's Great Design Fast Track pathway, having already secured eligibility from the Minister for Planning.

The Office of the Victorian Government Architect supported its eligibility after finding the proposal demonstrated consistency with the program's seven design principles, while the project's financial feasibility has also been independently confirmed by Invest Victoria.

The project is targeting the downsizer market, with the planning documents describing the homes as larger-format residences and noting the two penthouses could otherwise have been configured as four separate apartments.

<img alt="Lowe 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="60ab0987-2da6-4175-adac-315dcf6053c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bOCPH0B2MFwlmaRW.TTCF9TzyifgVoQI" />

The site has dual frontage to Erskine Street and Canterbury Place and currently comprises a collection of commercial buildings used as offices, including a former heritage bakehouse, a former stable, a later gabled addition and a central courtyard.

It sits within the Commercial 1 Zone and the Armstrong Street Commercial Precinct heritage overlay, with the existing property classified as a contributory heritage place.

Heritage has subsequently played a significant role in Cera Stribley's design.

The front section of the former bakehouse facing Erskine Street will be retained, including its return walls, street-facing hipped roof and chimneys, while the Erskine Street façade and part of the western return wall of the former stable will also be incorporated into the new development.

Levels four and five will be set back five metres from the retained stable façade, while bricks removed through demolition are proposed to be salvaged and reused within the new building where possible.

<img alt="Lowe 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e97927a9-a2de-4a0f-83b6-65451238abfa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VR44AChLrX9q1XPB9GvVQV.ALXXbe4gC" />

Rather than presenting as a single five-storey building to Erskine Street, Cera Stribley has broken the development into a series of distinct forms.

A three-storey infill element will sit between the retained bakehouse and stable façades, with the upper levels recessed behind the heritage fabric. Canterbury Place will similarly feature two three-storey podium forms, separated by a central pedestrian accessway, before the upper two levels step back from the street.

A pedestrian through-link will run through the centre of the project between Erskine Street and Canterbury Place, creating entrances from both sides of the site and introducing landscaping and communal areas through the ground plane.

Landscape architect Acre has designed planting across the ground level, private terraces and upper levels, including a feature canopy tree at level three and integrated planting and arbours across the level four terraces. Five existing Erskine Street trees are proposed to be retained.

Sustainability is also a significant component of the Great Design Fast Track application. The apartments are targeting an average eight-star NatHERS rating, with no residence below 6.5 stars, while the project has achieved a 75 per cent BESS score. Seven of the eight apartments are designed for cross-ventilation, with the remaining residence using mechanically assisted natural ventilation.

The plans also incorporate an 8kWp rooftop solar system, a 5,000-litre rainwater tank and infrastructure allowing future electric vehicle charging for every residence.

Lowe has a strong portfolio across Melbourne's blue-chip suburbs. They recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House by Lowe Living</a> in Camberwell, their first development in the Stonnington LGA.

Lowe Living unveils Middle Park apartment development

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

<a data-end="327" data-is-only-node="" data-start="250" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/norus-projects" rel="noopener" target="_new">Norus Developments</a> has lodged plans for a new apartment development in Clayton that would add further momentum to the suburb's emerging Green Street corridor.

Plans have been lodged for the consolidated site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1359-1365-centre-road-clayton-vic-3168">1359-1365 Centre Road</a>, where Norus is seeking approval for 218 apartments across a 12-storey apartment building designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/life-architecture-and-urban-design">Life Architecture</a>.

The proposal sits within the Clayton Major Activity Centre at the threshold of the planned Green Street corridor, a landscaped pedestrian connection intended to improve links through the precinct towards Clayton Railway Station.

The development would replace the site's existing collection of low-scale residential and commercial buildings with a single consolidated building, introducing significantly greater housing density to this part of Centre Road.

A retail tenancy is proposed at ground level to activate the Centre Road frontage, accompanied by transparent street interfaces and landscaping intended to create a more pedestrian-focused edge to the development.

<img alt="First look: Norus Developments plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a5a763a-d9e9-4253-af2f-88008de27ebf" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Clayton%20a.png?VersionId=S2WJJbat1XVkZwB9SnYtygirXgWHiklX" />

The building has been designed with stepped massing and upper-level setbacks to manage its transition towards surrounding residential properties. The planning report describes the approach as one that integrates the building into the landscape rather than treating landscaping as a secondary element.

"A strong landscape and public realm strategy underpins the proposal," Urbis states in the planning report.

"Public benefits include an affordable housing contribution, a new pocket park, generous landscaped setbacks, deep soil planting and integrated Water Sensitive Urban Design."

The report adds that these elements are intended to create "a permeable, pedestrian-focused ground plane that enhances walkability, supports urban cooling and reinforces the emerging Green Street character."

Biophilic and passive design principles extend through the residential levels, with planting, daylight, natural ventilation and views towards landscaped areas forming part of the amenity strategy.

Parking would be concentrated away from the public realm, with 145 car spaces proposed from the rear laneway rather than dominating the Centre Road frontage.

The proposal follows an extensive pre-application process with the City of Monash. Three formal meetings were held between the project team and Council from December 2025 to March 2026, with the scheme evolving through several concept iterations before the current design was lodged.

The project arrives as Clayton prepares for substantial change around its established activity centre and the wider Suburban Rail Loop precinct. Its position on Centre Road places the development within an existing concentration of shops, services and public transport, while the Green Street connection is intended to strengthen pedestrian access towards Clayton Railway Station.

First look: Norus plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> has officially commenced construction on Bronze on Chevron, celebrating the sod turning of its first-ever Gold Coast development and marking a significant milestone in the company's continued expansion across South East Queensland.&nbsp;

Following the successful delivery of premium residential developments throughout Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-chevron-island-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> represents Gardner Vaughan Group's entry into the Gold Coast market. Bronze will deliver 119 one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments above two ground-level retail tenancies.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367193]

The recent sod turning ceremony was attended by Deputy Mayor Mark Hammel, President of the Surfers Paradise Surf Life Saving Club, Cassandra Sedgman, project consultants, purchasers, project partners and invited guests to celebrate the commencement of construction.&nbsp;

Gardner Vaughan Group Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge said Bronze on Chevron represented an exciting new chapter for the business.&nbsp;

"We've spent almost four decades building homes that respond to the way people want to live, and we're excited to bring that experience to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chevron-island-qld-4217">Chevron Island</a>," Betteridge said.

"Bronze on Chevron is particularly significant because it marks Gardner Vaughan Group's first development on the Gold Coast following many successful projects across Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367183]

Betteridge said the ground breaking is a proud moment for the&nbsp;team and their purchasers, who can now see their future homes beginning to take shape.&nbsp;

"As both developer and builder, we're able to oversee every aspect of the project from design through to construction, ensuring the quality and attention to detail Gardner Vaughan Group has become renowned for."&nbsp;

Designed by acclaimed architectural practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, Bronze on Chevron has been thoughtfully designed to complement Chevron Island's evolving streetscape while embracing its relaxed coastal lifestyle.

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029

Gardner Vaughan Group breaks ground on first Gold Coast development, Bronze on Chevron

Sydney’s property market is known for high prices, competitive bidding, and mounting pressure on first home buyers. But change is on the horizon.

From late 2025, eligible first home buyers in New South Wales will have access to a new federal government initiative aimed at addressing affordability: the Help to Buy Scheme.&nbsp;

<h2>What is the Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

The program introduces a shared equity model intended to reduce the upfront cost of entering the property market, particularly in high-demand urban areas such as Sydney.

The scheme operates under a shared ownership structure in which the federal government takes an equity stake of up to 40 per cent for new homes, or 30 per cent for existing dwellings. This arrangement allows eligible buyers to significantly reduce their loan size and avoid the added cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI).

Under this model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required. The government’s contribution is not a loan but a co-ownership stake in the property. As such, there is no interest or rent charged on its portion.

Because the government’s equity combined with the buyer’s deposit typically meets or exceeds the 20 per cent threshold, LMI does not apply. The remaining balance, generally between 60 and 70 per cent of the property’s value, is financed through a standard home loan with a participating lender.

The government's equity in the property remains in place until the buyer chooses to repay it voluntarily or until the property is sold. Buyers can buy back the government’s share over time, in increments of at least five per cent, depending on their financial situation.

There is no fixed repayment timeline, but the amount to be repaid will be based on the property's market value at the time of repayment, not the original purchase price.

<h2>How do you qualify for the&nbsp;Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

To qualify for the Help to Buy Scheme, applicants must meet the following conditions:

<ul>
	<li>Be an Australian citizen at least 18 years of age.</li>
	<li>Be a first-home buyer who does not currently own property.</li>
	<li>Intend to live in the property as their primary residence.</li>
	<li>Earn less than $100,000 per year for individuals, or $160,000 for couples.</li>
	<li>Purchase a property within the regional price caps, currently $950,000 in Sydney, though this is expected to rise to approximately $1.3 million ahead of the program’s launch.</li>
</ul>

While the Help to Buy Scheme does not solve affordability challenges across the board, it does offer a more accessible pathway for a defined segment of the market, particularly younger buyers with moderate incomes who have been priced out of traditional lending routes.

The scheme is expected to commence in NSW in late 2025, as part of a national rollout.

Under the new model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required

Help to Buy Scheme: What first home buyers in NSW need to know

The First Home Owners Grant (FHOG) is a government initiative designed to help eligible first-time home buyers by offering financial assistance towards the purchase or construction of a new home.

While the FHOG is a nationwide program, it is administered separately by each state and territory, meaning the eligibility criteria, grant amounts, and property requirements can vary depending on your location. This means that the amount available and the conditions attached to the grant will differ, so it is important to check the specific guidelines for your state or territory.

It’s important to note that the FHOG is just one of several incentives available to first home buyers. In most states and territories, the grant is not linked to stamp duty exemptions or concessions, with the exception of the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The FHOG is typically a one-off payment, reducing the overall cost of purchasing or building a new home before any stamp duty concessions are applied.

Below, we provide a breakdown of the First Home Owner Grants available across Australia, outlining the specific details for each state and territory.

<h2>New South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $600,000. For land purchases and owner-builders, the threshold extends to $750,000.

Stamp Duty Benefits: Provides full stamp duty exemption for homes valued up to $800,000, with concessions available for properties up to $1 million.

<h2>Victoria South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: Provides a $10,000 grant for first-home buyers purchasing or building new homes valued up to $750,000.

Stamp Duty Benefits: Offers full stamp duty exemption for properties up to $600,000, with concessions available up to $750,000.

<h2>Queensland First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: Offers $30,000 for contracts signed between 20 November 2023 and 30 June 2025. The FHOG applies to new homes valued up to $750,000.

Stamp Duty Concessions: Provides additional concessions for properties valued up to $800,000.

<h2>Western Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

&nbsp;

First Home Owner Grant: Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $750,000 in the southern regions and up to $1 million in the northern regions.

Stamp Duty Concessions: Available for homes valued up to $600,000 for transactions entered into on or after 9 May 2024.

<h2>Australian Capital Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: Replaced by the Home Buyer Concession Scheme, offering full stamp duty concessions for eligible buyers.

<h2>South Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: Provides up to $15,000 for new homes, including houses, apartments, and townhouses. As of 6 June 2024, there is no property value cap for eligibility.

Stamp Duty Relief: Available for new homes and vacant land purchases.

<h2>Tasmania First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes and off the plan purchases.

Stamp Duty Exemption: Between 18 February 2024 and 30 June 2026, first home buyers of established homes valued up to $750,000 receive a full exemption on property transfer duty.

<h2>Northern Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: The Northern Territory provides a $10,000 grant for new homes only. Additional government grants and concessions are available for first home buyers.

Stamp Duty Exemption: The only stamp duty exemption available to property buyers is the House and Land Package Exemption (HLPE).

Eligibility criteria and application processes differ across states. Prospective buyers should refer to their respective state revenue offices for full details on grant availability, conditions, and additional concessions.

Every First Home Owner Grant for new property by state

In the ever-evolving landscape of sustainable architecture and environmentally conscious design, systems and ratings in place can help determine the energy efficiency of residential buildings in Australia.

Australia has multiple building rating systems that evaluate energy efficiency and sustainability in existing and new building designs.

Some systems assess individual building components, while others provide an overall rating for the entire structure.

A rating system ensures that homes are comfortable and energy-efficient, whether you are buying, renovating, or building.

NatHERS (Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme) is a common way for new homes to meet energy efficiency requirements.

As new developments continue to shape the urban environment, understanding NatHERS ratings becomes essential for developers and homeowners. This article delves into the concept of NatHERS ratings, their significance, and how they contribute to creating energy-efficient homes.

<h2>What is NatHERS?</h2>

NatHERS is a national initiative implemented by the Australian government to promote energy efficiency in residential buildings. The scheme aims to provide a standardised method for assessing the thermal performance of homes, considering factors such as insulation, orientation, ventilation, and building materials.&nbsp;

NatHERS ratings are the most common way new homes meet the National Construction Code's (NCC's) minimum energy efficiency requirements.&nbsp;

NatHERS assessments provide thermal and whole-home ratings for new homes, townhouses, and apartments.

The rating helps evaluate the energy performance of buildings, guides homeowners and developers to make informed decisions about the energy efficiency of their properties, and encourages the construction of more sustainable, comfortable, and cost-effective homes.

<h2>How NatHERS Ratings Work</h2>

NatHERS ratings are determined through four accredited software tools (AccuRate, BERS Pro, FirstRate5, HERO) using a calculation engine CSIRO developed to predict building temperature based on various factors.

The tools can model complex effects of building mass, insulation, window size, and other elements.

The outcome is a star rating that reflects the building's overall thermal efficiency, indicating how well it can maintain a comfortable indoor temperature without excessive reliance on heating or cooling systems.

The star rating scale ranges from 0 to 10, with a 6-star rating being the minimum requirement for compliance with the National Construction Code (NCC).&nbsp;

Achieving a higher star rating demonstrates a commitment to energy efficiency and sustainability, as the building is better equipped to minimise its environmental impact and reduce long-term energy costs.

Anyone can use NatHERS tools, but accredited assessors can provide certified ratings and professional advice.

<h2>Benefits of Higher NatHERS Ratings</h2>

Energy Efficiency: Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings are more energy-efficient, requiring less heating and cooling energy. This reduces the structure's carbon footprint and lowers occupants' energy bills.

Cost Savings: Homes with higher NatHERS ratings are generally more energy-efficient, resulting in reduced energy consumption for heating and cooling. This translates to lower energy bills for homeowners, making sustainable living environmentally friendly and economically viable in the long run.

Environmental Impact: Lower energy consumption directly translates to a reduced environmental impact. Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings contribute to the overall goal of mitigating climate change by lowering greenhouse gas emissions associated with heating and cooling systems.

Improved Comfort: Buildings with high NatHERS ratings offer better thermal comfort to occupants. Proper insulation, well-designed ventilation, and optimal orientation maintain a consistent and comfortable indoor temperature, providing occupants with a more enjoyable and healthier space.

Market Value and Desirability: Higher NatHERS ratings can enhance the market value of a property. As energy efficiency becomes a more significant consideration for homebuyers, a well-rated building may attract a premium price and stand out in the real estate market.

Compliance with Building Codes: NatHERS ratings are a vital component of the National Construction Code (NCC), and compliance with these ratings is often a mandatory requirement for new developments. Local councils and planning authorities may set minimum energy efficiency standards that must be met to obtain development approval.

The Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme (NatHERS) is a crucial initiative shaping the future of energy-efficient, resilient, and cost-effective homes. With its recent upgrades, NatHERS has evolved into a world-leading tool for the building sector, supporting the global commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Staff Writer

What is a NatHERS rating in new off the plan apartment developments?

Mixed-use developments have gained significant popularity across Australia in recent years due to their unique blend of residential, commercial, and recreational spaces.

Unlike traditional single-purpose developments, mixed-use projects offer a harmonious integration of various functions within a single locale.

Residential units seamlessly coexist with commercial establishments, retail outlets, dining venues, entertainment hubs, and recreational facilities, with the combination not only enhances convenience but also fosters a vibrant lifestyle and a sense of community.

<h3>Convenience and accessibility</h3>

Mixed-use developments are designed with convenience in mind. They often integrate residential units with commercial spaces, retail outlets, restaurants, and recreational facilities, creating a self-contained community.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114215 project_image_fid=204874]

The proximity allows residents to enjoy the convenience of having essential amenities and services within walking distance. Whether it's grabbing a cup of coffee, going grocery shopping, or accessing healthcare services, everything is conveniently located, saving residents time and effort.

<h3>Vibrant lifestyle and community</h3>

One of the major advantages of mixed-use developments is the vibrant lifestyle they offer. With a diverse range of amenities and communal spaces, residents have ample opportunities to interact, socialise, and build a sense of community.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107714 project_image_fid=214122]

The presence of parks, community centres, and shared spaces fosters a lively atmosphere, encouraging residents to engage in various activities and events. The vibrant lifestyle within these developments creates a unique sense of belonging and camaraderie among the residents.

<h3>Potential for higher rental yields and property value appreciation</h3>

Mixed-use developments tend to attract a broad range of tenants and buyers due to their versatile nature. This high demand can result in higher rental yields for investors and potentially lead to property value appreciation over time.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=212887]

The integration of commercial and retail spaces attracts businesses, which can provide a stable rental income stream. Additionally, the popularity of mixed-use developments often drives up property values, making them a potentially lucrative investment in the long term.

<h3>Enhanced security and maintenance</h3>

Mixed-use developments typically have comprehensive security measures in place. With controlled access points, CCTV surveillance, and professional security staff, residents can enjoy enhanced safety and peace of mind.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108019 project_image_fid=212658]

Additionally, these developments often have dedicated maintenance teams responsible for the upkeep of common areas, landscaping, and infrastructure. This ensures that the overall appearance and functionality of the development are well-maintained, creating a pleasant living environment for residents.

<h3>Live-work-play balance</h3>

One of the key attractions of mixed-use developments is the ability to achieve a desirable live-work-play balance. The integration of residential and commercial spaces allows residents to live closer to their workplaces, reducing commuting time and improving work-life balance.

The proximity to various amenities and recreational facilities encourages an active and healthy lifestyle. Residents can easily access fitness centres, parks, restaurants, and entertainment options, all within the same development, leading to a more fulfilling and convenient way of life.

alisonwarters@gmail.com

The top five reasons to buy in a mixed-use development

When buying a property, everyone needs to be aware of the additional costs that come as part of the buying process.

Often the largest outlay, after the deposit which goes to the bank, is stamp duty.

<h2 style="line-height: 1.38;">What is Stamp Duty?</h2>

Stamp duty is an extra tax to pay the government when you buy land, a property, and other certain assets.

It happens when the legal ownership is transferred. It can also be known as property transfer duty or transfer duty.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="415" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/C32BWkB5--c" title="YouTube video player" width="660"></iframe>

<h2>Who pays Stamp Duty?</h2>

In some circumstances, you may get an exemption. For some states, you won’t have to pay for stamp duty if you are a first home buyer or a pensioner for houses under a particular price. There are also stamp duty concessions, where you may be entitled to a discount.

<h2>How much does Stamp Duty cost?</h2>

Each state has different rules which affect how much you need to pay. These rules can affect the rate you pay, and the timeframe you will need to pay in. Before you buy land or a property, make sure you check the up-to-date information for your state’s stamp duty.

You can use a free stamp duty calculator online to see approximately how much you’ll need to pay. Find out if you’re eligible for an exemption by enquiring on a project via Urban!

Overall, the stamp duty you need to pay will depend on:

<ul>
	<li aria-level="1">How much your land/property is worth</li>
	<li aria-level="1">Where your land/property is located</li>
	<li aria-level="1">What type of land/property it is</li>
</ul>

Want to find out more? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@UrbanAustralia?utm_source=YouTube&amp;utm_medium=Video&amp;utm_campaign=Subscribe&amp;utm_id=Subscribe">Subscribe to our YouTube channel</a> for more property videos.

Ellen Walker

Off-the-plan property explained: What is stamp duty?

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
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<div class="column">
GUEST OBSERVER
The RBA’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged today came as no surprise. 
The competing forces of below target inflation and soft employment growth against rampant property markets in Sydney and Melbourne mean policy is on hold for the foreseeable future. 
The most interesting feature in the Governor’s Statement today was the second last paragraph, which was new. The entire paragraph was devoted to a discussion on lending for housing. The Governor noted that growth in household borrowing to purchase dwellings, “continues to outpace growth in household income”. And that, “a reduced reliance on interest-only housing loans in the Australian market would be a positive development.” 
Lowe’s comments come in the wake of APRA’s additional supervisory measures, announced last Friday, to address risks that continue to build within the mortgage lending market. The new rules will limit new interest only lending to 30% of new lending (currently ~40%) and limit the number of loans with high LVRs. At the margin, the changes should cool investor-related demand for housing, but not sufficiently so to put a rate cut back on the table. 
The Governor is a little more downbeat on the labour market, noting that, “some indicators of conditions in the labour market have softened recently.” The February labour force data (published two weeks ago) showed employment contracted over the month and the unemployment rate lifted to 5.9%. As such, the March data (due 13 April) takes on added significance because another weak employment report would see the RBA’s forecasts for jobs and wages growth tested. 
The rest of today’s Statement contained only cosmetic changes compared with the March Statement.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-05%20at%208.38.45%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-05%20at%208.38.45%20AM.png" alt="">
The outlook 
The consistent message from the RBA over the past two months has been that rate cuts are off the table. Very strong dwelling price growth and growing concerns around the level of household debt mean that the cash rate is unlikely go lower unless there is a sustained loss of momentum in job creation. 
Of course the debt burden faced by households would be lessened with lower rates. But the historical experience in Australia has shown that debt has risen as a share of income as rates have fallen. Further rates cuts at this point would simply encourage more borrowing that would ultimately go into bricks and mortar. That said, we very much doubt that the RBA would use its main policy lever to slow activity in the housing market while inflation is below target and spare capacity in the economy is elevated. It would be a very unusual move if it did, particularly given the latest round of supervisory measures announced by APRA. 
The market is pricing in a non-trivial 41% change of a rate hike within the next 12 months. But we cannot make or see the case for policy to be tightened. As such, we continue to expect the RBA to be on hold over 2017 and well into 2018. 
Gareth Aird is economist at Commonwealth Bank and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/gareth-aird/14/790/905">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

RBA on hold and neutral bias reaffirmed: Gareth Aird

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The Australian economy is very much a Curate’s egg at present – it is good in parts. Manufacturing is doing well and business conditions generally are favourable.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">But consumers are more cautious. Retail spending is soft while job markets are mixed, as are housing markets. So as you would expect the Reserve Bank is a little more considered when discussing the position of the Australian economy.</div>
<div class="column">
 But the Reserve Bank is by no means downcast, rather it is probably a little disappointed that the economy is largely marking time.</div>
<div class="column">
 The Reserve Bank sets policy by looking at where inflation is going to go. Inflation is still tipped to move above 2 per cent so clearly the Bank won’t be cutting rates any time soon. Housing has dominated the commentary. The Reserve Bank has added its voice to the need for lenders to be careful in assessing the serviceability of loans. And the Bank believes it would be positive if there was less reliance on interest only loans for home purchase.
Perspectives on interest rates</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate at 1.50 percent. The previous move was a rate cut in August 2016 (25 basis points). There have now been 12 rate cuts since November 2011, with the Reserve Bank cutting rates from 4.75 percent to 1.50 percent. The Reserve Bank had previously lifted rates seven times from October 2009 to November 2010 – a total of 1.75 percentage points, from 3.00 per cent to 4.75 per cent.
What are the implications of today’s decision?</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The next move in interest rates is still more likely to be a rate hike than a rate cut. But in our view, policy is unlikely to change over 2017, so any rate hike is some way off.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The Reserve Bank believes inflation will push into the 2-3 per cent target band. And economic growth is expected to lift over the year. Add in the fact that home prices are recording solid gains in many capital cities and it seems clear that rate cuts are off the agenda.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-05%20at%208.22.52%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="column"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-05%20at%208.22.52%20AM.png" alt=""></div>
<div class="column">
 Then there is the global environment. Global economic growth has improved and deflationary risks have receded. The US is lifting interest rates. And there are early signs that the Euro zone will reduce stimulus later this year. So the global environment supports the domestic policy leaning.</div>
<div class="column">
 The Reserve Bank is expected to maintain its neutral  policy stance for now. Inflation is still low, economic indicators are more mixed and the higher Australian dollar is acting as a modest cap on economic growth.</div>
<div class="column">
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The Reserve Bank will especially watch the following in coming months: the upcoming French presidential election; US fiscal policy (the flagged tax cuts); Chinese economic activity; commodity markets; Australian home prices; inflation expectations; and the local job market.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">We expect the Reserve Bank to stay on the interest rate sidelines for the 2017 year. </div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</div>
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Reserve Bank softens its views on the economy: Craig James

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
The RBA provided no surprises following its April board meeting leaving the official cash rate on hold at 1.5 percent.
The RBA remains more confident regarding global growth, sees Australian economic growth as moderate, regards the labour market as being mixed, sees a gradual rise in underlying inflation and continues to see conditions in the housing market as varying considerably across the country, but sees recent regulatory measures as reducing the risks associated with high and rising household debt.
This note looks at the outlook for the cash rate, the impact of bank rate hikes and the implications for investors.
RBA likely on hold well into 2018
Our assessment is the cash rate has probably hit bottom after falling from 4.75% in 2011 to a record low of 1.5% last year and that the next move will be a rate hike but not until second half 2018. Another rate cut looks unlikely because:
<ul>
<li>economic growth is okay – having bounced back in the December quarter after a temporary slump;</li>
<li>national income is up from its lows thanks to higher commodity prices;</li>
<li>the RBA expects underlying inflation will gradually rise;</li>
<li>the Sydney and Melbourne residential property markets are uncomfortably hot with prices up 19 percent and 16 percent respectively over the last year and 75 percent and 50 percent respectively over the last five years posing financial stability risks if prices and household debt continue to rise.</li>
</ul>
By the same token it’s too early to be thinking about hikes as unemployment and underemployment at over 14 percent are way too high;
<ul>
<li>this is maintaining downwards pressure on wages growth which is at record low of 1.9 percent year on year (in terms of the historical record for the Wage Price Index); </li>
<li>the $A remains too high and is up from January last year;  </li>
<li>underlying inflation risks staying below target for longer –  reflecting low wages, the rise in the $A and competition;  </li>
</ul>
There are risks around economic growth as the contribution  to growth from home building is likely to slow this year and retail sales growth is weak at a time when mining investment is still falling; and bank “out of cycle” mortgage rate hikes have delivered a (“modest”) de facto monetary tightening any way.  The RBA has to set interest rates for the average of Australia so raising interest rates just to slow the hot Sydney and Melbourne property markets would be complete madness at a time when overall growth is still fragile, underlying inflation is well below target and property price growth elsewhere is benign or weak.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-05%20at%208.06.41%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-05%20at%208.06.41%20AM.png" alt="">
The best way to deal with the hot Sydney and Melbourne property markets and excessive growth in property investor lending into those markets is through tightening lending standards, which APRA has just moved again to do.  By the second half of 2018 the drag on growth from falling mining investment is likely to have ended, stronger global growth should have started to help Australian growth and stronger employment growth should have started to benefit full time jobs and wages and the threat around below target underlying inflation should have subsided. All of which should allow the RBA to start raising interest rates. But on current indications it’s hard to justify RBA rate hikes before then.  
But what about bank out of cycle rate hikes?  
The banks have recently raised rates for property investors and on interest only loans by around 0.25% and for principal and interest owner occupier loans by around 0.03%. The stated drivers were higher funding costs (presumably following the back up in global bond yields over the last six months) and regulatory pressure to slow lending to investors and higher risk borrowers. More moves may lie ahead if global borrowing costs rise further but again would be focussed on investors &amp; interest only mortgages and in the absence of RBA rate hikes are likely to be small as only 20-30% of bank funding is sourced globally. But it’s worth putting “out of cycle” moves in context:
 The RBA is still in control. “Out of cycle” bank moves have been a regular occurrence since the GFC and yet this did not stop mortgage rates falling to record lows in response to RBA rate cuts. As can be seen in the chart below the virtually fixed 1.8% gap between the standard variable mortgage rate and the cash rate only applied from 1997 to 2007, prior to that the relationship was far less stable so “out of cycle” moves are nothing new. The chart shows that changes in the cash rate remain the main driver of mortgage rates. If the RBA wants to lower mortgage rates again it can just cut the cash rate till it gets the mortgage rates it wants. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-05%20at%208.08.16%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-05%20at%208.08.16%20AM.png" alt="">
  So far the changes in owner occupier rates are unlikely to have much economic impact because 3 basis points is trivial compared to the 200 basis point rise in mortgage rates that occurred in the 2009-10 monetary tightening cycle. So don’t expect much impact on consumer spending albeit there is negative psychological impact.
Changes in investor rates have less impact on spending in the economy because they are tax deductible and investors are less sensitive to rate moves. That said investor rates have gone up by around 0.52% compared to owner occupier rates since 2015 and this will eventually have some dampening impact on investor demand.
House prices
While strong population growth means that underlying property demand remains strong, the threats to the hot Sydney and Melbourne property markets are building: more macro- prudential measures to slow lending to investors and to more risky borrowers have been announced; the banks are raising rates out of cycle particularly for investors; the May budget is likely to see a reduction in the capital gains tax discount; all at a time when the supply of units is surging; and home prices are ridiculous. Taken together these moves are likely to result in a significant dampening impact on home price growth. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-05%20at%208.11.05%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-05%20at%208.11.05%20AM.png" alt="">
We continue to expect a significant cooling in price growth in Sydney and Melbourne this year followed by 5-10% price falls commencing sometime in 2018 after the RBA starts to hike rates. By contrast Perth and Darwin are getting close to bottoming (as the mining investment slumps nears its low) and other capital cities are likely to see continued moderate growth. Unit prices are most at risk given the increasing supply of units.
Will rate hikes crash the economy?
There seems to be a view that household debt is now so high that any hike in interest rates will cause mass defaults and crash the economy. This is nonsense. Yes household debt is up but not dramatically since the GFC and interest payments as a share of household disposable income are at their lowest since 2003. Mortgage rates would need to rise by nearly 2% to get the interest servicing ratio back to its most recent 2011 high - which slowed but did not crash the economy. And most Australians are ahead on their debt payments. 
Finally, the RBA will move gradually when it does start to raise rates and knows households are now more sensitive to rate moves and so it probably won’t have to hike rates as much as in the past to cool any overheating in the economy.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-05%20at%208.12.12%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-05%20at%208.12.12%20AM.png" alt="">
Implications for investors
There are several implications for investors. First, bank term deposit rates are set to remain very low. As a result, there is an ongoing need to consider alternative sources of income. Second, be cautious of the Sydney and Melbourne property markets, particularly units. Third, remain a little bit wary of the $A as an on hold RBA at a time when the Fed is likely to hike rates another two or three times this year could put downwards pressure on the $A.
So retain some exposure to unhedged global shares. Finally, with low interest rates growth assets providing decent yields will remain attractive. This includes unlisted commercial property and infrastructure but also Australian shares which continue to offer much higher income yields relative to bank term deposits.
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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds. 
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Can’t see an official rate hike until second half 2018: Shane Oliver

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GUEST OBSERVER
As universally expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 percent.
As we anticipated in our preview, two key changes are prominent in this month’s statement by the Governor.
Firstly, the commentary around the domestic economy is somewhat less upbeat. The growth performance is described as “ongoing moderate growth.” In particular the commentary around the labour market is downbeat. It is recognised that some indicators of conditions in the labour market have softened recently; the unemployment rate has moved a little higher and employment growth is modest. The forward looking indicators continue to be pointing to continued growth in employment although the use of the words “still point” provides some hint that the Bank is less committed to that prospect. Further, the Governor notes that “wage growth remains slow.”
Considerable attention is given to the housing market. While the theme that conditions vary markedly around the country is maintained the Governor speaks for the first time around “the risks associated with high and rising levels of indebtedness.” The minutes to the March meeting referred to “a build-up of risks associated with the housing market” and today’s statement just emphasises the Bank’s concern in this regard. In the March statement the Governor noted: “supervisory measures have contributed to some strengthening of lending standards.” In this statement he significantly raises the bar and asserts that: “lenders need to ensure that the serviceability metrics that they use are appropriate for current conditions … [including] a reduced reliance on interest only housing loans.” This is a much more direct statement setting the scene for expected further pressure on the banks from the regulators.
As has been the case in previous statements the currency is quoted as “an appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment.”
Conclusion Since August last year we have argued consistently that rates will remain on hold over the course of 2017 and 2018. We do expect that macro prudential and banks’ self-regulatory policies will be successful in taking most of the heat out of the housing market over the course of the remainder of this year. Even though spare capacity is expected to persist in the labour market and low wage and inflation conditions remain the Bank will not opt for further policy easing given the risks of reigniting house prices.
With Australian interest rates steady and US rates continuing to rise (two Fed hikes expected this year) supplemented by a turnaround in commodity prices the stimulus required for the domestic economy is likely to come through a more competitive Australian dollar than lower interest rates. 
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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RBA holds rates steady, more concerned about the labour market: Bill Evans

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At its April meeting today the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 percent. They have been unchanged since last August.
The board warned growth in household borrowing, largely to purchase housing, continues to outpace growth in household income.
"By reinforcing strong lending standards, the recently announced supervisory measures should help address the risks associated with high and rising levels of indebtedness. Lenders need to ensure that the serviceability metrics that they use are appropriate for current conditions.
"A reduced reliance on interest-only housing loans in the Australian market would also be a positive development," it noted.
Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
 
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said it was widely anticipated the Reserve Bank would keep the cash rate on hold, adding the RBA would be loath to push rates lower out of concern for adding further fuel to an already over heated housing market.
"They aren’t likely to push rates higher just to quell housing market exuberance; doing so could push inflation lower and the Australian dollar higher as well as cancel out some of the much needed stimulus that many sectors of the economy are benefitting from," he said.
"On the other hand, the RBA would be loath to push rates lower out of concern for adding further fuel to an already over heated housing market.
"With the cash rate likely to remain on hold, at least for the remainder of the year, it’s looking increasingly like other factors will be necessary to undertake the heavy lifting required to bring about a housing market slowdown. 
"Mortgage rates have been rising despite the steady cash rate, which will act as a disincentive to market demand. 
"The combination of higher mortgage rates, as well as firmer policy settings from APRA around investment lending, more scrutiny from ASIC on lending behaviour and tighter internal lending policies for the banking sector are likely to take some heat out of investment demand. 
"Additionally, market driven factors including high apartment supply, record low rental yields and affordability constraints should gradually contribute to slower housing market conditions. 
"If the housing market continues to accelerate despite these combined factors, there is a very high likelihood of further policy announcements that will more firmly muffle investment demand. 
Importantly, policy makers don’t want to dent investor demand so severely that unit settlements are adversely affected.  With more than 150,000 units currently under construction nationally, much of this new unit supply will be reliant on investor demand to be absorbed. 
"If lending conditions are too strict for this sector of the market, the risk of investors not being able (or willing) to settle will be heightened."
The vast majority (37 of 38) of experts and economists from the finder.com.au RBA survey accurately tipped the cash rate would remain unchanged today.
Some 86 percent of the 36 experts who opted in to this question believing the next rate move will be up; this has risen from 68 percent of panelists last month.
Graham Cooke, Insights Manager at finder.com.au, said out-of-cycle rate hikes have characterised the home loan market in recent months.
“It’s likely that some time will lapse before the Reserve Bank increases the cash rate so banks have taken matters into their own hands," he said.
“This year, out-of-cycle rate increases have become the norm with several banks raising rates for both variable and fixed products."
"When asked about recent out-of-cycle rate hikes, most experts and economists (69 percent) believe these hikes will allow the Reserve Bank to hold off for longer before adjusting the cash rate.
“While recent independent rate rises have been unpopular with homeowners, it’s likely the banks have given the RBA breathing space to hold out longer before making a move.
“We’re expecting the Reserve Bank to stay in it’s ‘wait and see’ mode for the foreseeable future,.
Seven out of 10 experts and economists think Sydney and Melbourne aren’t currently in a property ‘bubble.’
Shane Oliver from AMP Capital said “Yes, the Sydney and Melbourne property markets are overvalued, hot and unsustainable but this does not mean a 20% plus generalised crash is inevitable.”
When experts were asked about the top issues they’d like to see addressed in this year’s budget, housing affordability was the number one issue.
What finder.com.au experts had to say:
 Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (Hold): "The RBA has made it clear they are reticent to cut rates further, despite economic conditions that we'd characterise as soft on the whole."
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Hold): "Underlying inflation risks staying below target for longer and the Australian Dollar is too high, but growth is ok. National income is rising and the Sydney and Melbourne property markets are too hot. So best to stay on hold."
John Hewson, Australian National University (Hold): "There’s Insufficient evidence of the economy slowing and they’re waiting for the Budget"
Alison Booth, Australian National University (Hold): "I think the RBA will hold the cash rate owing to the stability of the key macroeconomic indicators."
Darryl Gobbett, Baillieu Holst (Hold): "RBA has more concern about the systemic issues with higher debt likely to result from lower interest rates than it sees benefits from lower interest rates."
Richard Robinson, BIS Oxford Economics (Hold) : "Although domestic economy is still weak and the Australian Dollar is tracking too high, the overheating residential property market precludes a cut to rates. A rate cut would help put downward pressure on the Australian dollar.”
Michael Blythe, CBA (Hold): "[Current issues include] low inflation and housing concerns." Savanth Sebastian, CommSec (Hold): "The RBA is comfortable how the economy is evolving.
Rate cuts are not on the agenda and inflation remains contained."
Dr Andrew Wilson, Domain Group (Hold): "No real case for change this month, steady as she goes but economy still needs work - and Budget looming."
Saul Eslake, Economist (Hold): "Notwithstanding the most recent labour force data, which were disappointing, there is no compelling reason for the RBA to think that its most recent forecasts need to be revised down, or that monetary policy settings need to be eased further. On the contrary, the recent renewed strength in property investment lending is a strong argument against further easing - even if it doesn't constitute a case, on its own, for an immediate tightening."
Dr Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni (Hold): "The economy is still struggling to gather momentum with employment weakening and inflation lack luster. Confidence is also below trend. Financial Institutions have also been raise rates out of cycle and thus have increased pressure on the economy."
Peter Haller, Heritage Bank (Hold): "There is nothing in the underlying economic data to justify a change in rates."
Shane Garrett, Housing Industry Association (Hold): "The bank will see no pressing need for an interest rate change at this stage. Economic growth is performing reasonably well in most areas and inflation is not yet a threat."
Alex Joiner, IFM Investors (Hold): "No compelling shift in data or outlook justifies rates being kept on hold."
Robert Montgomery, Infrastructure Partnerships Australia (Hold): "The RBA will wait for more movement in underlying economic indicators."
Michael Witts, ING Bank (Hold): "No drivers have been identified that would suggest that the RBA is looking at changing the absolute level of the cash rate in the immediate period ahead."
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Hold): "It's been telegraphed and they don't like changing rates unless they feel obliged to."
Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Hold): "Not enough has changed in an economic sense since the RBA met in early March. The main indicators suggest any increase in rates in the near term could put undue pressure on markets and consumers."
Lynne Jordan, Liberty (Hold): "Household debt levels, low wage growth, active property investors and a weak inflationary environment still present a major policy challenge for the RBA. I don’t think we’ll know exactly when the RBA’s next move will be until CPI data comes out at the end of April. If Inflation has gone up, we lean closer towards the rate increase many economists have predicted. But if it is the same or lower, the RBA will likely hold the cash rate and remain in the same predicament it has been for the past few months – that investors will continue to make the most of low interest rates and drive up prices, which could result in household debt levels increasing even further."
Matthew Tiller, LJ Hooker (Hold): "There has been little discernible change[to] economic indicators since the last RBA meeting. GDP has rebounded, inflation remains soft and employment growth has kept ticking over. The east coast housing markets remain strong and continues to be of concern to the RBA, especially when factoring the recent rises in mortgage rates from the majority of banks. These factors combined should see the RBA hold rates steady this month and over the short term."
Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics (Hold) : "It has an unhealthy emphasis on Sydney and Melbourne housing which is preventing it from cutting interest rates."
John Caelli, ME (Hold): "Risks to house prices outweigh concerns about low inflation in the short term"
Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists (Hold): "Underlying economic growth, though a little better than the previous quarter, is still weak but the RBA can't cut rates because of its concern regarding the strength in the Melbourne and Sydney property markets"
Mark Crosby, Monash University (Hold): "The well telegraphed Fed rate rise is consistent with more normal US growth, and outside Europe and Japan the global environment is reasonably benign. The case for a rate rise is not yet strong enough to justify moving rates up, but further Fed rises later this year should lead the RBA to consider increasing rates in H2."
Emily Dabbs, Moody's Analytics (Hold): "Inflation pressures are starting to build, but the domestic demand remains constrained by high underemployment. The central bank is keeping a close watch on the hot housing property, and further easing is unlikely while household debt continues to grow strongly. "
Jessica Darnbrough, Mortgage Choice (Hold): "I think the Reserve Bank will once again take a wait and see approach to interest rates. At present, there is nothing in the global or domestic economies that would push the Board to change their current stance on monetary policy. "
Christopher Schade, MyState Bank (Hold): "The hurdle for another cut is high. While inflation remains subdued, and the outlook for economic growth over the next year couple of years slightly below trend, interest rate settings in Australia are very accommodative and remain appropriate at their current level."
Alan Oster, NAB (Hold): "[The RBA is] still watching."
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer (Hold): "No need for any decision but hold. This year has seen continued upwards pressure on Sydney and Melbourne house prices, but standby for a shift given the continued regulatory measures and out of cycle bank rate hikes."
Matthew Peter, QIC (Hold): "The hot state of the housing market will keep the RBA from cutting rates, while the tepid recovery in the economy and lack of wage growth and core inflation will keep the RBA from raising rates - RBA on hold through 2017 and the first half of 2018."
Noel Whittaker, QUT (Hold): "No reason to move either way."
Janu Chan, St.George Banking Group (Increase): "The RBA is needing to balance a mixed outlook for the domestic economy and risks in the housing market. It suggests that the RBA will likely remain on hold in coming months."
Steven Milch, Suncorp (Hold): "Low inflation is being balanced by sound growth and a buoyant property market."
Brian Parker, Sunsuper (Hold): "Little change in the growth or inflation outlook from the previous meeting."
Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics (Hold): "No indication from the governor of the Bank of a change."
Nicki Hutley, Urbis (Hold): "RBA does not want to exacerbate house price growth." Bill Evans, Westpac (Hold)
Christine, Williams (Hold): "[The] employment rate has stayed the same with a mixture of casual and part time work employment No new full time work offered. Resources have not increased. With Cyclone Debbie's aftermath and the expectation of food rice increases this would not be the month to increase rates."
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Less interest-only would be positive development: RBA warns as it holds rates again at April 2017 meeting 

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Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 percent.
Conditions in the global economy have improved over recent months. Both global trade and industrial production have picked up. Labour markets have tightened in many countries. Above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. In China, growth is being supported by higher spending on infrastructure and property construction. This composition of growth and the rapid increase in borrowing mean that the medium-term risks to Chinese growth remain. The improvement in the global economy has contributed to higher commodity prices, which are providing a significant boost to Australia’s national income.
Headline inflation rates have moved higher in most countries, partly reflecting the higher commodity prices. Core inflation remains low. Long-term bond yields are higher than last year, although in a historical context they remain low. Interest rates have increased in the United States and there is no longer an expectation of additional monetary easing in other major economies. Financial markets have been functioning effectively.
The Australian economy is continuing its transition following the end of the mining investment boom. Recent data are consistent with ongoing moderate growth. Most measures of business confidence are at, or above, average and non-mining business investment has risen over the past year. At the same time, some indicators of conditions in the labour market have softened recently. In particular, the unemployment rate has moved a little higher and employment growth is modest. The various forward-looking indicators still point to continued growth in employment over the period ahead. Wage growth remains slow.
The outlook continues to be supported by the low level of interest rates. Lenders have recently announced increases in mortgage rates, particularly those paid by investors. Financial institutions remain in a good position to lend. The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment.
Inflation remains quite low. Headline inflation is expected to pick up over the course of 2017 to be above 2 per cent. The rise in underlying inflation is expected to be a bit more gradual with growth in labour costs remaining subdued.
Conditions in the housing market continue to vary considerably around the country. In some markets, conditions are strong and prices are rising briskly. In other markets, prices are declining. In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years. Growth in rents is the slowest for two decades.
Growth in household borrowing, largely to purchase housing, continues to outpace growth in household income. By reinforcing strong lending standards, the recently announced supervisory measures should help address the risks associated with high and rising levels of indebtedness. Lenders need to ensure that the serviceability metrics that they use are appropriate for current conditions. A reduced reliance on interest-only housing loans in the Australian market would also be a positive development.
Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
Philip Lowe's statement was first published on <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2017/mr-17-07" target="_blank">The RBA website here.</a>
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Borrowing outpacing household incomes: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's April 2017 statement

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GUEST OBSERVER
Coupled with an unexpected rise in the domestic unemployment, low inflation, and a dearth of other economic news, the CAMA RBA Shadow Board remains convinced that the cash rate should remain at its current level. 
It attaches a 54 percent probability that this is the appropriate setting. The confidence attached to a required rate cut equals 3 percent, while the confidence in a required rate hike equals 43 percent.
Inflation remains at 1.5 percent, well below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s official target of 2-3 percent. 
Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 5.9 percent in February of 2017 from 5.7 percent in January, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The consensus forecast was 5.7 percent. This number will be closely watched by the markets and policy makers. The increase in unemployment was due entirely to a reduction in employment, in particular part-time employment, as the participation rate was unchanged. There is no new data on wages growth, which remains subdued.
The Aussie dollar, relative to the US dollar, has still not broken out of its narrow range near the 76 US¢ mark. Likewise, yields on Australian 10-year government bonds are also range-bound, around 2.7 percent, as are domestic share prices.
Globally, both the OECD and the IMF agree that economic growth is likely to remain tepid for a while longer. This concern was echoed by US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen who remarked that, “we cannot rule out the possibility expressed by some prominent economists that slow productivity growth seen in recent years will continue into the future.” While there is some positive news coming out of Asia, as trade volumes are increasing, Brexit and a volatile Trump presidency continue to put investment in a holding pattern.
Elevated house prices and the world’s third highest household debt and debt servicing ratios will continue to weigh on the RBA’s mind as the possibility of a painful price correction, with all its implications for the macroeconomy, cannot be easily dismissed.
The Shadow Board continues to prefer to hold interest rates steady but its confidence that this setting is appropriate has weakened somewhat, from 59% in March to 54 percent. It attaches a 3 percent probability (4 percent in March) that a rate cut is appropriate and a 43 percent probability (37 percent in March) that a rate rise, to 1.75 percent or higher, is appropriate.
The probabilities at longer horizons are as follows: 6 months out, the estimated probability that the cash rate should remain at 1.50 percent equals 20 percent, three percentage points down from the previous round. 
The estimated need for an interest rate decrease has fallen from 9 percent to 6 percent, while the the probability attached to a required increase equals 74% (68 percent in March). 
A year out, the Shadow Board members’ confidence that the cash rate should be held steady equals 16 percent (down from 17 percent in the previous three months), while the confidence in a required cash rate decrease has waned from 7% in March to 4% and in a required cash rate increase grown from 76 percent to 81 percent.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-04%20at%209.38.16%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-04%20at%209.38.16%20AM.png" alt="">
 
To read the release in full, visit the RBA Shadow Board's website <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/rba-shadow-board" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Rates should stay on hold as banks start to move: RBA Shadow Board

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The majority of experts and economists believe the RBA is likely to hold the cash rate at 1.5 percent ahead of this afternoon's meeting, according to a survey by finder.com.au.
The majority of experts (80 percent, 24) said the idea of first home buyers accessing their superannuation to help with a property purchase would be ‘irresponsible’.
Some 37 of 38 experts and economists polled for the survey are expecting the Reserve Bank to hold the cash rate for April 2017 and 70 percent of those who gave detailed predictions (34) indicating a rise will not take place until 2018 and 86 percent of the 36 economists who weighed in on this question forecasting the next rate move to be an increase.
This is up from 68 percent of panelists in March and 58 percent in February.
Graham Cooke, finder.com.au insights manager, says mortgage holders should brace themselves for rising interest rates. 
“The cash rate hasn’t shifted in recent months, but it’s now becoming clear that the next move will be in a positive direction as the Bank starts to tighten monetary policy," he said.
“Variable rate mortgage holders should brace themselves and revise their household budget to ensure they can cope with higher mortgage repayments.
“This could mean consolidating personal debt or cutting back on household expenses such as utilities or groceries,” he says.
"Enabling first home buyers to dip into their super funds could interfere with retirement planning.
“Allowing young Australians to access their super to facilitate a property purchase could jeopardise their future as it may mean they don’t have enough funds to cover living expenses once they hit retirement age.
“Additionally, this could add fuel to the fire by creating further demand for housing, thereby ballooning property prices."
In a low interest rate setting, experts were asked if some borrowers may have overborrowed for properties, and the responses were varied.
“Some first home buyers may have bitten off more than they can chew which could be an issue with rising rates. However, disciplined budgeting and a clear repayment schedule will help borrowers manage their debt effectively.
“APRA’s recent move to tighten mortgage rules combined with recent bank rate hikes, targeted mostly at investors, are likely to cool the flourishing housing market. 
“In particular, APRA’s decision to limit the flow of new interest-only lending to 30 percent of new residential mortgages will have change the market drastically. Currently, interest-only loans account for 39 percent of lending."
Here’s what finder's experts had to say: 
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (Hold): "The RBA has made it clear they are reticent to cut rates
further, despite economic conditions that we'd characterise as soft on the whole."
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Hold): "Underlying inflation risks staying below target for longer and the Australian Dollar is too high, but growth is ok. National income is rising and the Sydney and Melbourne property markets are too hot. So best to stay on hold."
John Hewson, Australian National University (Hold): "There’s Insufficient evidence of the economy slowing and they’re waiting for the Budget"
Alison Booth, Australian National University (Hold): "I think the RBA will hold the cash rate owing to the stability of the key macroeconomic indicators."
Darryl Gobbett, Baillieu Holst (Hold): "RBA has more concern about the systemic issues with higher debt likely to result from lower interest rates than it sees benefits from lower interest rates."
Richard Robinson, BIS Oxford Economics (Hold) : "Although domestic economy is still weak and the Australian Dollar is tracking too high, the overheating residential property market precludes a cut to rates. A rate cut would help put downward pressure on the Australian dollar.”
Michael Blythe, CBA (Hold): "[Current issues include] low inflation and housing concerns." Savanth Sebastian, CommSec (Hold): "The RBA is comfortable how the economy is evolving.
Rate cuts are not on the agenda and inflation remains contained."
Dr Andrew Wilson, Domain Group (Hold): "No real case for change this month, steady as she goes but economy still needs work - and Budget looming."
Saul Eslake, Economist (Hold): "Notwithstanding the most recent labour force data, which were disappointing, there is no compelling reason for the RBA to think that its most recent forecasts need to be revised down, or that monetary policy settings need to be eased further. On the contrary, the recent renewed strength in property investment lending is a strong argument against further easing - even if it doesn't constitute a case, on its own, for an immediate tightening."
Dr Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni (Hold): "The economy is still struggling to gather momentum with employment weakening and inflation lack luster. Confidence is also below trend. Financial Institutions have also been raise rates out of cycle and thus have increased pressure on the economy."
Peter Haller, Heritage Bank (Hold): "There is nothing in the underlying economic data to justify a change in rates."
Shane Garrett, Housing Industry Association (Hold): "The bank will see no pressing need for an interest rate change at this stage. Economic growth is performing reasonably well in most areas and inflation is not yet a threat."
Alex Joiner, IFM Investors (Hold): "No compelling shift in data or outlook justifies rates being kept on hold."
Robert Montgomery, Infrastructure Partnerships Australia (Hold): "The RBA will wait for more movement in underlying economic indicators."
Michael Witts, ING Bank (Hold): "No drivers have been identified that would suggest that the RBA is looking at changing the absolute level of the cash rate in the immediate period ahead."
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Hold): "It's been telegraphed and they don't like changing rates unless they feel obliged to."
Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Hold): "Not enough has changed in an economic sense since the RBA met in early March. The main indicators suggest any increase in rates in the near term could put undue pressure on markets and consumers."
Lynne Jordan, Liberty (Hold): "Household debt levels, low wage growth, active property investors and a weak inflationary environment still present a major policy challenge for the RBA. I don’t think we’ll know exactly when the RBA’s next move will be until CPI data comes out at the end of April. If Inflation has gone up, we lean closer towards the rate increase many economists have predicted. But if it is the same or lower, the RBA will likely hold the cash rate and remain in the same predicament it has been for the past few months – that investors will continue to make the most of low interest rates and drive up prices, which could result in household debt levels increasing even further."
Matthew Tiller, LJ Hooker (Hold): "There has been little discernible change[to] economic indicators since the last RBA meeting. GDP has rebounded, inflation remains soft and employment growth has kept ticking over. The east coast housing markets remain strong and continues to be of concern to the RBA, especially when factoring the recent rises in mortgage rates from the majority of banks. These factors combined should see the RBA hold rates steady this month and over the short term."
Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics (Hold) : "It has an unhealthy emphasis on Sydney and Melbourne housing which is preventing it from cutting interest rates."
John Caelli, ME (Hold): "Risks to house prices outweigh concerns about low inflation in the short term"
Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists (Hold): "Underlying economic growth, though a little better than the previous quarter, is still weak but the RBA can't cut rates because of its concern regarding the strength in the Melbourne and Sydney property markets"
Mark Crosby, Monash University (Hold): "The well telegraphed Fed rate rise is consistent with more normal US growth, and outside Europe and Japan the global environment is reasonably benign. The case for a rate rise is not yet strong enough to justify moving rates up, but further Fed rises later this year should lead the RBA to consider increasing rates in H2."
Emily Dabbs, Moody's Analytics (Hold): "Inflation pressures are starting to build, but the domestic demand remains constrained by high underemployment. The central bank is keeping a close watch on the hot housing property, and further easing is unlikely while household debt continues to grow strongly. "
Jessica Darnbrough, Mortgage Choice (Hold): "I think the Reserve Bank will once again take a wait and see approach to interest rates. At present, there is nothing in the global or domestic economies that would push the Board to change their current stance on monetary policy. "
Christopher Schade, MyState Bank (Hold): "The hurdle for another cut is high. While inflation remains subdued, and the outlook for economic growth over the next year couple of years slightly below trend, interest rate settings in Australia are very accommodative and remain appropriate at their current level."
Alan Oster, NAB (Hold): "[The RBA is] still watching."
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer (Hold): "No need for any decision but hold. This year has seen continued upwards pressure on Sydney and Melbourne house prices, but standby for a shift given the continued regulatory measures and out of cycle bank rate hikes."
Matthew Peter, QIC (Hold): "The hot state of the housing market will keep the RBA from cutting rates, while the tepid recovery in the economy and lack of wage growth and core inflation will keep the RBA from raising rates - RBA on hold through 2017 and the first half of 2018."
Noel Whittaker, QUT (Hold): "No reason to move either way."
Janu Chan, St.George Banking Group (Increase): "The RBA is needing to balance a mixed outlook for the domestic economy and risks in the housing market. It suggests that the RBA will likely remain on hold in coming months."
Steven Milch, Suncorp (Hold): "Low inflation is being balanced by sound growth and a buoyant property market."
Brian Parker, Sunsuper (Hold): "Little change in the growth or inflation outlook from the previous meeting."
Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics (Hold): "No indication from the governor of the Bank of a change."
Nicki Hutley, Urbis (Hold): "RBA does not want to exacerbate house price growth." Bill Evans, Westpac (Hold)
Christine, Williams (Hold): "[The] employment rate has stayed the same with a mixture of casual and part time work employment No new full time work offered. Resources have not increased. With Cyclone Debbie's aftermath and the expectation of food rice increases this would not be the month to increase rates." 
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No rate cut and first homebuyers accessing super to buy property is ‘irresponsible’, experts say

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AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver has forecast a slowdown in property price gains in Sydney and Melbourne this year ahead of a 5-10 percent price fall starting next year.
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The call comes in the wake of the Australian Prudential Regulation Auth­or­ity’s announcement on Friday of tougher lending standards, including a crackdown on interest-only home lending.
Dr Oliver said it was no surprise to see APRA increase its focus on the investor lending market, but told The Australian the moves had come too late.
“The latest moves by APRA, coming on the back of bank mortgage rate hikes over the last two weeks, the likelihood of action to boost affordability in the May budget (including a cut to the capital gains tax discount), and the surge in unit supply at a time of silly prices, are all likely to result in a slowdown in property price gains in Sydney and Melbourne this year ahead of a 5-10 per cent price fall starting next year some time,” he said.
Based on the latest APRA data, CBA is the bank with the highest annual home loan growth of 7.6 per cent, compared to system growth of 7 per cent.
Westpac was up 6.4 per cent, ANZ 5.7 per cent and NAB 5.2 per cent.
CBA’s interest-only loans are growing at 42 per cent and account for 40 per cent of its book.
Home loans account for 62 per cent of all bank loans.
The tighter interest only slowdown measures from APRA came as the RBA’s latest quarterly spreadsheets on household ­finances, released on Friday, showed that average debts were now 89 per cent greater than ­incomes, up from 67 per cent greater just four years ago. 
While household debts have risen by 32 per cent in the past five years, the value of household assets­ have risen even faster, by 51 per cent. Household net worth has gained 57 per cent over that period, from $5.6 trillion to $8.8 trillion, translating to an increase from $666,864 per household to $954,550 in just five years.
The booming housing markets of Sydney and Melbourne are a large part of this increase, with the value of the housing stock rising by 47 per cent, from $4.2 trillion to $6.1 trillion. The size of the housing stock has increased by 8.5 per cent over that period, so the ­increase per house has been about 33 per cent.
Oliver has previously predicted 5 to 10 percent price falls.
Last October he noted the surge in prices and debt has led many to conclude a crash is imminent.
"But we have heard that lots of times over the last 10-15 years.
"Several considerations suggest a crash is unlikely.
"First, we have not seen a generalised oversupply and at the current rate we won’t go into oversupply until around 2017-18.
"Second, despite talk of mortgage stress the reality is that debt interest payments relative to income are around 2004 levels.
"Third, Australia has still not seen anything like the deterioration in lending standards seen in other countries prior to the GFC.
"In fact in recent years there has been a decline in low-doc loans and a reduction in loans with high loan to valuation ratios."
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/10/20/Tightening%20lending%20standards.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/10/20/Tightening%20lending%20standards.jpg" alt="">
Oliver noted it is dangerous to generalise before saying nationwide price falls are unlikely until the RBA starts to raise interest rates again.
"This is unlikely before 2018, at which point we are likely to see a 5 percent or so pullback in property prices as was seen in the 2009 and 2011 down cycles.
"Sydney and Melbourne having seen the biggest gains are more at risk and so could fall 5-10 percent around 2018."
 
For more real estate traps and tips visit <a href="https://realestatetraps.com.au/">realestatetraps.com.au</a>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Shane Oliver again tips 5 to 10 percent property price falls for Sydney and Melbourne

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The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has clamped down on interest-only loans in a bid to cool the hot east coast property market.
The regulator said it had written to all lenders today.
From now on interest-only loans must be restricted to 30 per cent of new residential mortgage loans.
Interest-only lending represents nearly 40 per cent of the stock of residential mortgage lending by banks.
APRA said this was "quite high" by international and historical standards.
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“APRA views a higher proportion of interest-only lending in the current environment to be indicative of a higher risk profile," APRA Chairman Wayne Byres said.
"We will therefore be monitoring the share of interest-only lending within total new mortgage lending for each ADI, and will consider the need to impose additional requirements on an ADI when the proportion of new lending on interest-only terms exceeds 30 per cent of total new mortgage lending," Wayne Byres said.
He said that APRA also continues to monitor the prevalence of higher risk mortgage lending more generally, including lending at high loan-to-income ratios, lending at a high loan-to-valuation ratios, and lending at very long terms or with long interest only periods (e.g. beyond 5 years). 
He said the regulator believes the 10 per cent benchmark for growth in lending to investors continues to provide an appropriate constraint in the current environment, balancing the need to continue to moderate new investor lending with the increasing supply of newly completed construction which must be absorbed in the year ahead.
The new measures:
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<li>Limit the flow of new interest-only lending to 30% of total new residential mortgage lending, and within that place strict internal limits on the volume of interest-only lending at loan-to-value ratios (LVRs) above 80% and ensure there is strong scrutiny and justification of any instances of interest-only lending at an LVR above 90% </li>
<li>Manage lending to investors in such a manner so as to comfortably remain below the previously advised benchmark of 10%</li>
<li>Review and ensure that serviceability metrics, including interest rate and net income buffers, are set at appropriate levels for current conditions</li>
<li>Continue to restrain lending growth in higher risk segments of the portfolio (e.g. high loan-to-income loans, high LVR loans, and loans for very long terms).</li>
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No reduction in the 10% annual cap on investor credit growth was announced.
The increased scrutiny comes in response to an environment of heightened risks such as high housing prices, high household debt, low income growth, historically low interest rates, and strong competitive pressures. 
The regulator has has advised ADIs that it is also monitoring the growth in warehouse facilities provided by ADIs to other lenders. These facilities allow lenders to build a portfolio of loans that will eventually be securitised.
“APRA would be concerned if these warehouse facilities were growing at a materially faster rate than an ADI’s own housing loan portfolio, or if lending standards for loans held within warehouses are of a materially lower quality than would be consistent with industry-wide sound practices,” Byres said in the letter.
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