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There is a property debate raging at present: is the future for property bright, or is the bubble about to burst?
Obviously if you are considering investing in property, or are about to buy a home, it would be good to know who's right. 
After a number of boom years we have entered a flat period in the property cycle, but what’s unusual this time round is that every state is in the slump stage of its cycle. The trouble is that the negative media surrounding this is spooking many inexperienced investors.
I’ve heard many theories as to why the property bubble will burst. Some doomsayers are predicting a property crash because house prices have risen too high and are now unaffordable. Others suggest we have taken on too much debt both personally and as a nation.
Just because houses prices are high or unaffordable to some doesn’t mean we have a property bubble. 
How have property markets corrected in the past?
To understand what’s ahead, let’s look at what happens when property markets got ahead of themselves in the past.
Sydney had a terrific boom between 2001 and February 2004. In fact it was one of the best performing property markets between 1996 and 2004 helped in part by the excitement related to the Olympic Games.
After this boom the Sydney property market corrected. It didn’t collapse – it just corrected – with values falling from peak to trough by 9.3%, and this fall took a total of 23 months to play out, according to <a href="https://www.rpdata.com/" title="RP Data" target="_blank">RP Data</a>.
Of course not all parts of the Sydney market dropped in value equally – some areas held their values well. And even in the regions where values fell, property prices didn’t plummet – they gently followed a downward path.
But look at where Sydney property prices are today – most properties are worth significantly more than they were at their high point in 2004.
A similar pattern occurred in Brisbane and Perth, where values peaked in February 2008 after a long boom in both cities pushed their house prices well above the average national price growth. Again, property prices didn’t collapse – they just sauntered along, allowing the fundamentals to get back into alignment.
Going back to the previous decade, much the same happened in the early 1990s, when we experienced “the recession we had to have”. After the remarkable property boom of the late ’80s, interest rates rose to peak at about 17% and the property markets around Australia stalled. But once again, they didn’t collapse. They just flatlined for a few years as affordability, supply and demand other economic fundamentals caught up.
The only times Australian property values dropped significantly (albeit for a short time) was after the Second World War and during the Great Depression.
In the 1940s house prices dropped 17% over a two-year period, but according to John Edwards of <a href="https://www.residex.com.au/">Residex</a> they jumped back and grew strongly for many years after that.
Property values also dropped during the Great Depression when unemployment was high, but times are different today. No one is suggesting that Australia is heading for a depression; in fact we’re experiencing the opposite – a booming economy. That’s why talk of a property market collapse is nonsense.
Why don’t Australian property markets collapse?
Well, some do!
Just look at the Gold Coast, where the values of some properties have fallen by 40%.
But here’s why. The Gold Coast is driven more by speculation than by underlying supply and demand fundamentals. The large fall in prices there is because there is too much developer stock on the market and the fact that many people are selling up their holiday homes after the GFC.
The point is that in general our capital city property markets don’t collapse because they are illiquid. People don’t sell up their homes just because interest rates rise or when times get tough.
What could cause a property market collapse? 
Looking at what has happened in the past, both here and overseas, the factors that could make our markets collapse are:
<ol start="1">
<li>A depression or a severe recession – no one is suggesting this is likely in the near future, with the mother of all mining booms buoying up our economy.</li>
<li>
Unemployment levels so high that a mass of people can’t afford to keep their homes. Again this is unlikely to occur with unemployment levels being as low as they are.</li>
<li>
Interest rates rising to levels that cause home owners to default on their mortgages. I am hopeful the RBA won’t allow this to happen.</li>
</ol>
Why property won’t crash.
There are a number of reasons why we won’t see major falls in home prices in our capital cities any time soon. We have:
<ol start="1">
<li>Robust population growth fuelled by immigration and to a lesser extent strong natural population growth. Although immigration levels have dropped, we’re still growing at a faster rate than any other country in the developed world.</li>
<li>A healthy economy that will continue to perform at a level that is the envied by of much of the Western world and will create jobs for anyone who wants one.</li>
<li>A sound banking system with reasonable interest rates, tight lending practices and a low default rate.</li>
<li>A shortage of properties in some locations, which means rents will rise.</li>
<li>Difficultly getting finance for new developments and rising construction costs, which means new developments will be more expensive and underpin the value of established homes.</li>
<li>A healthy level of household debt. Sure we are borrowing more, but the debt tends to be in the hands of those who can afford it. Many Australians are saving more, taking on less credit card debt and paying off their mortgages faster than they need to, which improves the state of their personal finances. This in turn reduces the risk of house prices collapsing if interest rates rise or the economy hits a speed bump.</li>
<li>A culture of home ownership – 70% of us own or are paying off our homes. In contrast to some overseas markets, Australians have high equity in their properties and a conservative debt position. In fact half of all homes have no debt against them.</li>
</ol>
What’s ahead?
There’s no sugar-coating it – Australian house prices are high, but affordability has increased over the past year thanks to flat property prices and wages growth. Recent research from Rismark shows the average dwelling price-to-disposable household income ratio has fallen from a peak of 4.7 times in December 2009 to 4.2 times in the 2011 March quarter.
Yet there is still a large demand for housing – people are still getting married, having babies, getting divorced and coming from overseas. If they can’t afford to buy their homes they are going to rent, and this will force rentals up.
The bottom line is we are now moving into the stabilisation stage of the property cycle where values may only grow a few percent higher than inflation for a few years, but it’s a time when investors will be compensated by higher rents.
Of course, being a buyers’ market will mean that informed investors will be able to pick up a great investment property below intrinsic value if they do their research and negotiate wisely. And when they look back in a few years time they’ll wonder why they didn’t buy more properties while others were waiting for the bubble to burst.
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Seven reasons why Australian property won't crash

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The rich are getting richer according to the recently released BRW Rich 200 list. The total wealth held by this year’s Rich List members was up 23% on last year, in part helped by our resources boom.
And just in case you haven’t notices, the divide between the rich and the poor has never been so evident according to the BRW. The average income for Australian families is $80,000 with just 15% of us earning $150,000 or more each year, which seems to be Treasurer Wayne Swan’s definition of wealthy.
In contrast it would take the lower-ranking members on the Rich List less than 5 days to earn $150,000, which seems to be the new cut off between the rich and the average Australian.
So, what can we learn from Australia's wealthy individuals?
Firstly property remains the single biggest source of wealth with 49 real-estate entrepreneurs in the top 200 list, and many of those who didn't make their fortunes in property have stored their wealth by investing in property.
This should come as no surprise – looking back over the years, no matter how the Australian economy changes, the Rich 200 has always been dominated by the property entrepreneurs.
Remember, there's nothing wrong with seeing what other successful people do and applying those principles to your own life. If so many extraordinarily wealthy people have used real estate profitably, it stands to reason that there's money to be made in this sector.
The other lessons I learned by reading the various entrepreneurs' stories are:
Anyone can become rich in Australia. While 17% inherited some of their fortune, most on the Rich List were self-made successes, some coming from working-class backgrounds. Attending a private school and an elite education is clearly not a prerequisite to joining Australia’s wealthy. While some forged important networks at school, many went to public schools and others didn’t even finish high school. In fact, less than half have tertiary qualifications.
 
Invest counter-cyclically. While the average Australian was gripped with fear of the fallout from the Global Financial Crisis, many successful investors took advantage of the opportunity to buy up big over the last few years. Remember Warren Buffet's famous quote: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful."
Make your millions and then reinvest it – don't spend it. This is really just using the power of compounding to grow your asset base before you start spending up big.
Take risks early on, but not once you are established. While many entrepreneurs took big risks to get their enterprises going, successful investors then preserved their wealth by cautiously investing rather than taking further risks.
Have one good idea and repeat it. One core trait that successful entrepreneurs share is the ability to take a good idea and repeat it over and over again. Look through the list and you’ll see so many entrepreneurs stick to the same concept for years and just expand in different locations.
Pick the trends. This is different to picking fads, which are transient.
Go for growth. Sure, cash flow is important but to become really rich you need a large asset base. While the average Australian tries to increase their cash flow, the wealthy are obsessed with building their asset base. Much the same as those on the BRW Rich 200 list who concentrate on building their balance sheets even more than they do on their profit and loss accounts.
Surround yourself with a good team. As I've often said, if you are the smartest person in your team, you are in trouble.
Take action. All the people who made it onto this year's BRW Rich 200 list started with a dream and then took action.
You’re never too young and you’re never too old. The youngest member of the BRW Rich 200 is aged 35 and has an estimated wealth of $1.01 billion, which is even more than the oldest member who at the age of 92 has accumulated $289 million.
Michael Yardney is the director of Metropole Property Investment Strategists, a best-selling author and one of Australia's leading experts in wealth creation through property. For more information about Michael visit <a style="color: #333333; font-weight: bold; font-size: 13.5px; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.metropole.com.au/">www.metropole.com.au</a> and <a style="color: #333333; font-weight: bold; font-size: 13.5px; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.propertyupdate.com.au/">www.PropertyUpdate.com.au</a>.
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The rich are getting richer, and so can you

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If you're looking to buy your next home or investment property, or even if you're considering selling your property, a question you would be asking yourself is, "How much is this property really worth?"
Whom do you ask to find out? The selling agent? A valuer? A buyers' agent? Maybe the bank? Or do you buy one of those online reports from the property data providers?
It probably won't come as a surprise that they are all likely to come up with different "values".
You may have heard of the concept of "fair market value" in property, which is defined as "the price a buyer will pay and a seller will accept given that neither the buyer nor the seller is under pressure to close the deal".
Pressure, or motivation, comes from life changes such as divorce, a sudden job transfer, difficulty meeting mortgage repayments or a death in the family, and these things compel either the buyer or seller to act quickly.
Now, when we're talking fair market value, let's get one thing clear – it might not always be "fair" to you.
It might not be what you call "equitable", because fair market value is impartial, it takes no sides and it doesn't care about what you need or what you want. As a buyer you want to buy the property at the best price possible and as a seller you want to achieve the highest price for your home.
So back to my original question – whom do you ask for advice?
The real-estate agent
If you ask the selling agent what the property you're considering buying is worth, he is obliged to work for his client – the seller. Although he can give you details of comparable sales and an indication of interest in the property from other potential buyers, the selling agent should be trying to maximise the sale price for his vendor.
A valuer
You could pay $400 or so and get an independent professional valuation, but you'd probably be disappointed.
I've found that a formal valuation is of limited benefit in setting a realistic market price to purchase a property and will generally be low when choosing the asking price when selling your home. It's just another figure to add to the mix of possible prices.
Call me cynical, but in the current market, when property values are flat, I've found valuers come down on the conservative side.
The bank
When you apply for a loan for your new property the bank will determine its value, but again this might not accurately reflect the property's market price.
Banks tend to value properties at a figure that will reflect what the can reasonably expect to recoup if they take possession and on-sell your property if you default on your loan repayments. They either use their own staff or an outside firm of valuers, but these are often driven by valuations without even looking inside the property.
An online report
A number of property data and research companies provide reports you can buy online to estimate the value of a property.
What's the catch? I've found that they can be 10% to 20% out on the real price of a property. They can be wrong either way – estimating the property is worth considerably more or less than its value.
Think about it – they don't know if the property has had an airconditioner installed or whether it has threadbare carpets or recently polished floor boards. They don't know whether the property has been recently renovated or is in original condition.
In my view, I wouldn't bother with this type of report.
A buyers' agent
A buyers' agent could be a good source of independent and unbiased property price advice.
Buyers’ agents are licensed estate agents, but the opposite to selling agents, because they work for and are paid by the buyer.
If you choose one who works in the geographic patch you are considering, he or she should have an intimate knowledge of the property market, what is selling and what isn't and the prices that properties are selling for.
More and more investors and home owners are now using buyers' agents to level the playing field when they are looking for their next property purchases. Not only will they assist with background research and pricing, but you can use their negotiating skills to help you obtain the best price.
To be successful in today's flat property markets thorough research and astute property selection is important, as is buying at the right price. Investors can't count on the rising tide of property prices to cover up their buying mistakes.
If you are not able to or don't have the time to do this research yourself, then you need to get a good team on your side to help in your next property purchase or sale.
 
Michael Yardney is the director of Metropole Property Investment Strategists, a best-selling author and one of Australia's leading experts in wealth creation through property. For more information about Michael, visit <a href="https://www.metropole.com.au/">www.metropole.com.au</a> and <a href="https://www.propertyupdate.com.au/">www.PropertyUpdate.com.au</a>.
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How much is that property really worth?

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After years of strong capital growth in most of our capital cities, it’s clear that 2011 will be a different year – one of minimal growth.
The trouble is that there are now more properties for sale than there are buyers.
Affordability has become an issue for many potential buyers, who are feeling the pinch of many interest rate hikes last year. At the same time there is less consumer confidence as a result of the mixed messages in the media, and this means many would-be home buyers and investors are sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what will happen.
What these observers of the property markets will notice is that rents are going to rise significantly over the next few years.
Why?
Our population is still growing in our major cities, and people have to live somewhere. If they can’t afford to buy they’ll rent, and we’re just not building enough new dwellings to accommodate them all.
This leads to the question – can all these tenants afford the rent hike many landlords would like to impose?
 There’s some encouraging news from leading property researcher <a href="https://www.matusik.com.au/" title="Michael Matusik" target="_blank">Michael Matusik</a>, whose 2011 rental market survey found the majority of tenants are willing to pay more in rent and have the ability to do so.
 The survey found that although seven out of 10 tenants want to buy their own property, and just over half anticipate doing so within the next 12 months, most want to stay in their current accommodation and are willing to pay more rent rather than move.
 Two-thirds of the renters surveyed said they were prepared to pay 5% more in rent, and a further 30% said they would accept an even bigger rent increase in order not to have to move.
 Even better news for property investors is that the majority of tenants can afford to pay more. Three-quarters of the respondents reported that they were paying less than a third of their income in rent and half were paying less than a quarter of their pay on accommodation.
 With vacancy rates well below the long-term average, rising demand for rental accommodation and a shortage of new accommodation, rents are likely to start rising again. This will be welcomed by property investors, as most experienced only sluggish income growth over the past year.
According to <a href="https://www.rpdata.com/">RP Data</a> capital city rental growth for the 12 months to March 31 was:
<ul>
<li>Sydney +5.3%</li>
<li>Hobart +4.5%</li>
<li>Perth +4.4%</li>
<li>Darwin +3.7%</li>
<li>Adelaide +2.8%</li>
<li>Canberra +2.5%</li>
<li>Melbourne +0.9%</li>
<li>Brisbane -1.0%</li>
</ul>
Just to make things clear – what we are experiencing is the property cycle running its normal course.
At times when properties are affordable and buyers are out in force pushing up prices, rents tend to lag behind. Then in the current stage of the cycle, when price growth stagnates because there are fewer buyers and more tenants in the market, it is the time when rents catch up.
That’s just how the property cycle works.
Michael Yardney is the director of Metropole Property Investment Strategists, a best-selling author and one of Australia's leading experts in wealth creation through property. For more information about Michael visit <a href="https://www.metropole.com.au/">www.metropole.com.au</a> and <a href="https://www.propertyupdate.com.au/">www.PropertyUpdate.com.au</a>.
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Rents on the rise

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Warren Buffett is arguably the greatest investor of all time. He has a great track record of creating and maintaining his wealth through share investments, but many of his principles also apply to property investors. So let’s look at some of Buffett’s investment principles and see how we can apply them to our property investing.
 Adhere to a proven strategy.
Buffett’s success has often been put down to his extraordinary patience and discipline, never deviating from his proven investment strategy even when faced with short-term changes in the market.
 This is a great lesson for property investors, as most don’t have a plan or adhere to a proven strategy. In fact, many investors spend more time planning their next holidays than they do planning their financial futures.
 If you don't have an investment strategy to keep you focused, how can you hope to develop financial independence? It's too easy to get distracted by all the "opportunities" various interests keep spruiking. Unfortunately many of these supposed opportunities don't work out as expected. Look at many of the investors who bought off the plan or in the next "hot spot", only to see the value of their properties underperform.
 Invest counter-cyclically.
Buffett is a renowned counter-cyclical investor, advising: “We attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”
This is also the investment strategy of many successful property investors and has proven to be a winning formula for many who invested in property last year, when many predicted that property prices would fall further. So be sceptical of conventional wisdom – not because the crowd is always wrong, but because the crowd is always late.
Sometimes it’s best to do nothing.
A great quote from Warren Buffett is “The trick is when there is nothing to do, do nothing.” Yet many investors get itchy feet and want to do more, put another deal together or buy another property. There are stages in the property cycle and times in your investment journey when it is best to sit back and wait for the right opportunities, because wealth is the transfer of money from the impatient to the patient.
Specialise, don’t diversify.
Buffett has adopted a focused investment philosophy, investing the bulk of his funds in a few companies. However, most advisers suggest diversifying. This is really just playing the game of investment not to lose, rather than playing the game to win, and leads to average results.
A successful investor specialises. He or she becomes an expert in one area or niche and reproduces the same thing over and over again, getting great results.
Invest for value.
Buffett is a value investor who says: "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price," and it’s the same with property. Lock in your profits by buying the “right property” – one that will outperform the averages in the long term because of its scarcity or the potential to add value.
In today’s flat property market bargains abound, but they don’t necessarily represent good long-term investments. Rather than buying a cheap property, buy the best property you can afford. Remember, the price you pay for a property isn't the same as the value you get. Successful investors know the difference.
 
Invest for the long term.
Even Buffett can't predict which way the markets will move in the short term, and he is quite certain no one else can either. So instead, he takes a long-term view of the market, saying if you don't feel comfortable owning a stock for 10 years, you shouldn't own it for 10 minutes.
 Similarly, those investors who have created wealth out of property take a long-term view. This doesn’t mean buy and forget – you should regularly reviewing your property portfolio.
When was the last time you checked to make sure you were getting the best rents or that your mortgage was appropriate for the current times? Maybe it's time to refinance against your increased equity and use the funds to buy further properties?
And sometimes it is appropriate to consider selling an underperforming property to enable you to buy a better investment.
 
Don’t invest in anything you don’t understand.
During the boom years investors’ hunger for high returns took them into exotic terrain, whether they realised it or not. Promoters often promised large profits using opaque schemes, and the same has been happening in the last year or two from a new breed of property pretenders.
Warren Buffett never invests in anything he doesn’t understand – neither should you.
 Manage your risks
Many investors don't fully understand the risks associated with property investment and therefore don't manage them correctly.
 One common error is not having sufficient financial buffers to see them through from one property cycle to the next. Smart investors have financial buffers in their lines of credit or offset accounts to not only cover their negative gearing but also to see them through the down times like we’re currently experiencing and through times of increasing interest rates.
 Savvy investors don't only buy properties; they but themselves time.
 Another way smart investors minimise risk is to buy their properties in the correct ownership structures to legally minimise their tax obligations and protect their assets.
 A final lesson from the master is that bad times will come and go with surprising frequency over our investing lifetimes, but if we have a plan and stay focused on sound financial strategies, we can gain financial independence through prudent investing.
Michael Yardney is the director of Metropole Property Investment Strategists, a best-selling author and one of Australia's leading experts in wealth creation through property. For more information about Michael visit <a href="https://www.metropole.com.au/">www.metropole.com.au</a>  or <a href="https://www.propertyupdate.com.au/">www.propertyupdate.com.au</a>.
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Invest like Warren Buffett

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Since one of the primary drivers of property prices is where people choose to live, I like to know where future population growth is likely to occur to ensure the value of my properties keeps rising.
It should come as no surprise that the vast majority of people in Australia live within the capital cities. According to RP Data, 64% of Australia’s residents lived in one of our eight capital cities of June 2010, with 55.5% living in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane or Perth.
Although we have vast open spaces in this lucky country, much of it is empty expanse, and two-thirds of our population lives in only 0.5% of the overall land mass.
More Australians lived on the land a century ago, but with the industrial revolution the jobs and therefore the population moved to the big cities, and this trend has continued. Even 50 years ago only 60% of our population lived in capital cities, but people keep moving to where the jobs are.
Sure, we have a resources boom and a small percentage of our population is being drawn to the mining towns, but the vast majority of Australian business is housed within the major capital cities, and that's where the jobs are.
I've always chosen to invest in capital cities rather than regional Australia because a larger population base means more owner-occupiers looking for homes, which pushes up prices, as well as more tenants driving rental demand and therefore rents upward.
With good employment prospects and major infrastructure like schools, hospitals and public transport, as well as desirable lifestyle amenities such as shopping, recreation, restaurants and entertainment venues, capital cities will continue to be home to a large portion of the population.
I admit that there are some regional towns that have exhibited great capital growth, and in some cases better growth than some underperforming suburban areas, but on the whole capital city properties have outperformed other types of properties in the long term.
This is particularly true for our four major metropolises – Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and Perth – where more than half our population reside.
Another important consideration is that our large capital cities boast diverse economies with a wide array of industries supporting them, compared with regional towns, where the local economy is often driven by one or two industries. Having a more stable economy ensures that the property markets in our big cities are less subject to sudden changes. This is different to the more speculative holiday hotspots and mining towns, where fortunes can be made and lost in the blink of an eye.
Just look at the once booming Gold or Sunshine coasts, where properties are languishing on the market and prices have fallen due to a significant drop in the tourism sector – the main industry that largely drives that local economy.
Of course all property markets are cyclical and will have their highs and lows, but over the long term it is evident that above-average capital growth will be found in the suburban property markets of our major metropolises. While this may lead to affordability issues, particularly for first-home buyers trying to get into these markets, it also means there will be a good supply of tenants for those investors who own the right properties.
For me capital cities are the place to be.
Michael Yardney is the director of Metropole Property Investment Strategists, a best-selling author and one of Australia's leading experts in wealth creation through property. For more information about Michael visit <a href="https://www.metropole.com.au/">www.metropole.com.au</a> <a href="https://www.propertyupdate.com.au/">www.propertyupdate.com.au</a>.
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City living or country retreat?

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The conflicting messages in the media lately have left many investors wondering where Australia’s property markets are heading. Even the different research organisations seem to be coming out with conflicting reports about what’s happening to property prices.
 Then there has been increasing concern about economic problems overseas, plus reports of further interest rate rises on the horizon. No wonder so many investors are wondering: what comes next?
The problem is that many of these investors have not owned properties throughout a complete property cycle, and this makes them uncomfortable as we move through the various stages.
Today I will delve into my memory and see what we can learn from previous cycles to help you understand where our markets are heading.
 But before I do I’d like to remind you that while we’re currently in the slower stage of the property cycle, the bottom line is that as a long-term investment, property is hard to beat.
I remember reading a research report from Massey University suggesting that Australian residential property has been the best-performing asset class over the long haul. The study dated back to 1920 and showed that property produced an average return of around 15% per annum (combining rental income and price gains) since that time.These figures don't really reflect how good property is as an investment, as they don't take into account the power of leverage and the higher returns you can obtain on your own funds. When you factor this in, property far outperforms all other asset classes over the long term.
 But while there's little doubt that property is a potent wealth-builder in the long term, it goes through the same kinds of cycles as other investment classes, which means that the reported high long-term average returns take into account periods of very high growth and also periods when property went nowhere for a few years.
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
Think of the ’80s
 Back in the early 1980s house prices across most of the capital cities were stagnant. Melbourne's median house price languished at about $50,000 from 1980 to 1983, then grew steadily but unspectacularly before really taking off in 1987.
 In Sydney, the median house price reached about $80,000 in 1981 and stayed there for the next four years. Perth prices were falling in 1983, and Brisbane house prices were going nowhere after a year or two of 25% returns in the early 80s. It took until 1987 before these property markets all began to boom again.
 After crashing in 1990, property prices in Sydney and Melbourne stayed flat until 1995 and then they started moving slowly upwards. And it wasn't until 2000 that prices in Brisbane finally took off after a decade of growing at 5% or less per year. Interestingly, this was despite a huge influx of immigrants from other states coming to the sunshine state.
 In Perth, a short recovery followed the boom and bust of the late 1980s and early 1990s. The market there ambled along, with annual returns at about 6% until its boom in the middle of last decade, where Perth's median property price overtook all capital cities other than Sydney.
 In the last year or two some of our property markets performed strongly while others languished. Melbourne and Sydney were of course the shining stars, with a couple of years of strong growth.
The lesson to learn from all of this is that as a property investor you must be aware of and prepared for these cycles.
Sure, it's hard when you are in the middle of the flat period of the property cycle, as Brisbane and Perth have been for a few years. But look at the property prices that prevailed 10 and 20 years ago and look at property prices today. Property investment is a long-term play – you need to be patient, as values in our major capital cities have doubled every seven to 10 years.
 What causes the cycles?
 What were the factors behind those cycles? It's the old story of supply and demand. Property prices are pushed up by the demand created by a healthy economy, by high levels of employment, population movements caused by migration and immigration and positive market sentiment.
They are dragged down when the economy performs poorly, when interest rates rise, when employment and immigration figures fall, when supply exceeds demand and when the marketplace is nervous about wealth and the future.
 Cycles are an inevitable part of any investment market, and our property markets are behaving normally at present.
 One more thing: there are local, as well as national, property cycles. Each state is at a different stage of its property cycle, and within each state there are cycles within the various suburbs.
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
What’s ahead for property?
 Eventually the cycle will move on – it always has. Traditionally the more affluent suburbs tend to perform well at the beginning of the property cycle, and that's what is likely to happen again this time around.
 As our economy and the sharemarket pick up, more affluent Australians will be back in the market upgrading their homes. Many will be many chasing similar types of property, which will push up values in our more “upmarket” suburbs. As values increase in these innerring suburbs, the price differential between these and their neighbouring suburbs will increase. Soon buyers will start looking for “bargains" in these adjoining suburbs, and the increase in property values will ripple out to the middle-ring suburbs.
 This increase in property values and higher rents will start to draw investors back into the market. However, many beginning investors will hold back at this early stage of the property cycle, waiting for more signs of certainty.
Of course while they are waiting many will miss out on significant property price growth the savvy investors who get in early and buy counter-cyclically will enjoy.
 What about affordability?
 Every cycle I hear the cry "Property prices are too high! They can't keep going up like that", I remember it in the early 1980s and then again in the late ’80s, when people said house prices just couldn’t go up any more. "They are so high our children will never be able to afford a house" was the catch-cry, but prices doubled over the next decade.
 Of course, many are saying the same again now. However, while most of us are sympathetic to the plight of the average first-home buyers struggling to get into their first properties, I feel that even if they don't admit it, secretly most home owners enjoy hearing how house prices keep rising.
Those of us already in the "game" take comfort from the fact that our homes, our castles, are quietly but consistently increasing in value. And deep down we hope this continues because not only does it make us feel wealthier, it actually makes us wealthier.
 There is no doubt that affordability will be an issue for many in the future and this will limit the growth of property prices in some areas more than others. For example, first home buyers and those in the lower socio-economic brackets are more likely to be affected by rising interest rates than those with more disposable income.
 What this means is that some areas – particularly new suburbs and the lower-priced suburbs – will perform worse than the more affluent suburbs as the cycle moves on.
 Business as usual
 In summary, our property markets are behaving normally, working their way through their individual property cycles. Within each state the property markets are fragmented, with some suburbs holding their values well and sometimes slowly increasing in value while other suburbs, particularly the outer "mortgage belt" suburbs, languish.
These cycles mean there are great opportunities out there for property investors who are selective and think long term.
Are you ready to exploit the opportunities that will arise?
 
Michael Yardney is the director of Metropole Property Investment Strategists, a best-selling author and one of Australia's leading experts in wealth creation through property. For more information about Michael visit <a href="https://www.metropole.com.au/">www.metropole.com.au</a> and <a href="https://www.propertyupdate.com.au/">www.PropertyUpdate.com.au</a>.
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Learn from history

Buyers considering a residence at boutique Gordon townhouse development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/lume-gordon-43-47-dumaresq-street-gordon-nsw-2072">Lume</a>&nbsp;now have another reason to bring forward their decision.

For a limited time, purchasers of a residence at Lume will receive a BMW iX3 50 electric SUV, valued at more than $120,000, as part of their purchase. The offer is designed to add value for buyers while complementing the lifestyle envisioned for the architecturally designed Upper North Shore development.

Scott Timmins, Development Manager at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/winim">WINIM</a>, said the partnership was created to provide buyers with a compelling reason to act.

"In today's market, buyers need a compelling reason to act now, and the BMW partnership was designed to create that catalyst. We wanted to add genuine value for our future purchasers. Choosing the all-electric BMW iX3 50 also reflects the values behind LUME, forward-thinking design, innovation and a more sustainable way of living. It's a premium incentive that complements the lifestyle our buyers aspire to and rewards those who commit early."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374893]

Delivered by WINIM in partnership with Burtonwood Investment Partners, Lume comprises 14 architecturally designed two, three and four-bedroom townhomes created for families seeking the space of a freestanding house with the ease of modern, low-maintenance living.

The three-storey residences, designed by award-winning architecture practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, have been tailored for families and multi-generational living, featuring private internal lifts, flexible lower-level spaces, generous open-plan living and entertaining areas, media rooms, and landscaped outdoor spaces with custom outdoor kitchens.&nbsp;

Inside, engineered oak flooring, bespoke dining joinery with integrated wine fridges and backlit bars, sculptural porcelain bathrooms, Parisi freestanding baths and Astra Walker tapware create interiors that balance functionality with refined finishes.

Each townhome has been designed to combine generous internal spaces with sustainability initiatives such as EV charging infrastructure, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>'s landscaped communal areas, centred around a restored creek line and native planting, encourage residents to connect with nature and spend more time outdoors.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=269527]

Rothelowman's Gary Tsui said the architecture was conceived to respond carefully to its Upper North Shore setting.

"Our vision was to create elegant, uplifting homes that draw on and positively contribute to the local character through meticulously considered design and an interaction with the surroundings."

The communal landscape has been designed as more than an open space between homes. Arcadia's Ben Newell and Kate Phillips said the adjoining reserve provided an opportunity to create a distinctive natural retreat for residents.

"Just as waterways carve their way through Ku-ring-gai's landscape, a raised boardwalk weaves through the reserve, connecting the homes to this tranquil oasis."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374892]

Located just 300 metres from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/gordon-nsw-2072">Gordon</a> Village and Gordon railway station, Lume offers convenient access to Sydney's CBD while placing residents close to some of the North Shore's leading schools, including Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College and Knox Grammar. Lane Cove National Park, Gordon Golf Club and a range of cafés and restaurants further reinforce the family-focused lifestyle on offer, with the BMW iX3 50 complementing everything from local trips around Gordon to weekend drives and city commutes.

Construction is underway with completion expected in mid-2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7354]

Joel Robinson

Boutique Gordon townhomes now come with a BMW iX3 50

Two apartments have sold for more than $10 million at EADE Byron Bay, setting some of the highest apartment prices ever achieved in the coastal town and underlining the growing appetite for luxury beachfront apartments in Australia's most popular coastal locations.

The $210 million project by Vitale Property Group has now secured more than $70 million in sales, led by residences that changed hands for $12.75 million and $11.75 million.

The record-breaking transactions reinforce the shift occurring in Byron Bay's premium property market, where affluent downsizers and lifestyle buyers are increasingly opting for high-end apartments over large beachfront homes.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/eade-byron-bay-29-shirley-street-byron-bay-nsw-2481">EADE Byron Bay</a> occupies a rare 6,000 sqm absolute beachfront site on the corner of Shirley and Milton Streets overlooking Main Beach and The Wreck surf break, just 350 metres from Byron Bay's town centre.

The 25-residence development is the first beachfront apartment project approved in Byron Bay in more than a decade and is currently under construction, with completion expected in May 2027.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359521]

The project has attracted a mix of local Byron Shire residents downsizing from larger homes, alongside interstate buyers from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane seeking a permanent coastal lifestyle without compromising on space.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hayball">Hayball</a> and with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/alexander-co">Alexander &amp; Co</a>, EADE comprises&nbsp;10 garden apartments ranging from 284 sqm to 622 sqm, nine with private pools, five full-floor apartments and 10 rooftop residences with private plunge pools, expansive outdoor entertaining areas and uninterrupted ocean views.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359527]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/vitale-property-group">Vitale Property Group</a> Managing Partner Chris Vitale said the project's combination of scale, location and limited future supply was driving buyer demand.

"There isn't another beachfront holding in Byron Bay of this size and position that could be developed again," Vitale said.

"Buyers are responding to the scarcity and the irreplaceability of a site of this calibre and to floorplans they can't find elsewhere in the market.

"We are seeing buyers place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of the location. The sales achieved to date demonstrate that discerning purchasers recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay.

"Many are coming from larger homes in the Byron region, or from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and are after the space, security and convenience, without the upkeep of a house."

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[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359523]

The Byron Bay project follows Vitale Property Group's delivery of the Mondrian Hotel and Private Residences at Burleigh Heads, with EADE continuing the developer's focus on luxury coastal developments.

Residents will have access to a resort-style swimming pool, gymnasium, sauna, cold plunge pool, concierge services and dedicated workspaces, while the project is targeting an 8-Star Green Star rating.

EADE Byron Bay is being exclusively marketed by Projx Australia in conjunction with WHITEFOX Projects.

WHITEFOX National Projects Director Phillip Rand said demand had been driven predominantly by owner-occupiers.

"We are seeing buyers at EADE place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of this location," Rand says.

"The sales achieved to date demonstrate that purchasers at this level recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay."

Residences at EADE Byron Bay are currently priced between $4.75 million and $15.95 million.

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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145590]

Vitale breaks Byron Bay records with EADE sales flurry 

When buying an apartment, most people compare the big-ticket items first. Floorplans. Kitchens. Balcony size. Natural light. The view.

But there's one everyday consideration that often doesn't come up until after moving in: how parcels are delivered.

As online shopping has become part of everyday life, parcel deliveries have shifted from an occasional event to a regular occurrence. Australians spent a record $82.6 billion shopping online in 2025, with almost one in every four retail dollars now spent digitally.

For apartment residents, that can present a challenge.

If nobody is home to accept a delivery, parcels may be redirected to a nearby Post Office, left in a building lobby or common area, or require building management to step in. In higher-density buildings, where dozens or even hundreds of residents may receive deliveries each day, parcel management has become an increasingly important part of everyday living.

That can create a range of frustrations. A missed delivery often means making time to collect a parcel elsewhere, while packages left unattended in foyers or mail areas can create clutter and increase the risk of theft. What seems like a minor inconvenience can quickly become a recurring issue for residents who shop online regularly.

It's one of those details that rarely features in a display suite but can have a noticeable impact once residents move in.

As a result, buyers are beginning to look beyond traditional apartment features and consider how a building supports day-to-day convenience, including whether there are secure options for receiving deliveries.

Australia Post's Parcel Lockers provide one solution.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CkF2oKmlACg?si=C50sDaoUUn2nuLmq" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

Rather than having a parcel delivered directly to an apartment, eligible deliveries can be sent to a nominated Parcel Locker. Once the parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS and can collect it using a QR code or one-time PIN at a time that suits them.

The Parcel Locker network now includes more than 1,500 locations nationwide, with installations at Post Offices, shopping centres, transport hubs and an increasing number of residential developments. By providing a secure collection point, Parcel Lockers help reduce missed deliveries and avoid parcels being left unattended in common areas.

For developers, parcel infrastructure is becoming another way to improve the resident experience. Rather than relying on concierge staff or leaving parcels in communal spaces, secure collection points help streamline deliveries while preserving the presentation and functionality of shared areas.

For buyers, it's a reminder that the best apartment features aren't always the most obvious.

A generous floorplan or quality finishes might help narrow the shortlist, but the conveniences that simplify everyday life, whether that's EV charging, secure bike storage or reliable parcel delivery, often become the features residents appreciate most once they're living there.

The apartment feature many buyers don't think about, until their first missed delivery

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hg-developments">HG Developments</a> is doubling down on Maud Street in Newstead, filing plans for a new apartment tower just a few doors down from its under-construction Aire Newstead development.

Recently submitted to Brisbane City Council, the proposal is for an 18-storey building designed by bureau^proberts, which has drawn heavily on Brisbane's subtropical design principles while referencing the suburb's industrial heritage.

A total of 64 apartments are planned for the amalgamated 1,518 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-21-maud-street-newstead-qld-4006">17–21 Maud Street</a>, a short walk from the Brisbane River and Newstead Riverwalk.

<img alt="First look: HG Developments plans 18-storey subtropical apartment tower for Newstead" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a400c7fd-bd15-48f8-a63b-10ede92efe00" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Maud%20st%20bldg.png?VersionId=.0vPmjpbC7CNP7kqGWa6L7rGIwsNExaw" />

"The building is defined by a series of vaulted motifs that reinterpret the arches, colonnades and layered facades evident throughout Newstead's historic built fabric," the Urban Design Report states.

"Combined with recessed glazing and generous balconies, these elements create a layered building envelope that provides shade, weather protection and opportunities for natural ventilation whilst establishing a distinctive architectural identity."

The proposal comprises 64 two, three and four-bedroom apartments across 18 residential levels, positioning it alongside a growing number of taller residential projects transforming Newstead's northern precinct. The tower incorporates extensive subtropical landscaping, with cascading planter boxes, deep planting at street level and a landscaped rooftop recreation area.

<img alt="First look: HG Developments plans 18-storey subtropical apartment tower for Newstead" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1d8140f4-8b98-45cd-b1b8-1efe8c8e266b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Maud%20st%20podium.png?VersionId=VAZtbCoD44YCJ57N99fQCAKeSJx7ldZs" />

Bureau Proberts has prioritised passive environmental design throughout the project, with generous balconies, recessed glazing and operable façades helping reduce solar heat gain while maximising natural ventilation. River views become available from the upper levels, while the building has been orientated to capture prevailing breezes from both the Brisbane River and the west.

The architects say landscape is intended to be integral to the building rather than an applied element.

"Vertical greenery, cascading planter boxes and elevated gardens are woven throughout the architecture, softening the built form and strengthening the connection between residents and the subtropical environment."

"Through the integration of landscape, high-quality materials and passive design principles, the development delivers a refined residential address that celebrates Newstead's heritage character while contributing positively to Brisbane's evolving subtropical identity."

Newstead has remained one of Brisbane's most active apartment markets in recent years, with a number of developers continuing to back the inner-city suburb.

HG Developments is currently delivering the 40-apartment Aire Newstead at 25 Maud Street. Fortis recently launched the 65-apartment <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> on Kyabra Street, while builder-developer BPG and Don O'Rorke's Consolidated Properties are both expected to launch their respective Newstead projects before the end of the year.

HG Developments doubles down in Newstead with second Maud Street apartment development

Walk past a new apartment development promoting its sustainability credentials and it's easy to picture rooftop gardens, mature trees, landscaped courtyards and residents surrounded by nature.

But in many cases, that's not actually what those sustainability ratings guarantee.

Australia's leading environmental rating tools have played a significant role in improving the energy efficiency and environmental performance of buildings. Yet despite their focus on reducing emissions, many don't require developers to include trees, biodiversity or meaningful green space.

In other words, a building can achieve one of the country's highest sustainability ratings while containing little more than concrete, glass and hard landscaping.

That disconnect has led to the emergence of a new movement across Australia's property industry: nature-based cities.

The concept goes beyond designing buildings that consume less energy. Instead, it encourages developers to treat nature as essential infrastructure, integrating biodiversity, tree canopy, living landscapes and green spaces into projects from the earliest stages of planning.

Research has consistently linked access to nature with better physical and mental health, cooler neighbourhoods, improved biodiversity, stronger climate resilience and more connected communities. As Australia's cities continue to become denser, advocates say those outcomes should be considered just as important as energy efficiency.

Nature Based Cities (NBC) was established in 2022 to help accelerate that shift.

Founded by Hamton Executive Chairman Paul Hameister OAM, the not-for-profit was created after research highlighted a significant gap in Australia's sustainability framework. While existing environmental rating tools rewarded energy performance and emissions reductions, they placed little emphasis on the inclusion of living landscapes.

"We've always wanted to do more, and we know other developers who want to do more, but the ESD rating tools just aren't there," Hameister says.

"In Australia, you can have a five-green-star rated building that's concrete and glass with not a blade of grass.

"The focus is on reducing emissions, which is laudable, but there hasn't been enough attention paid to protecting and re-establishing nature. We need both for the health of the environment and for communities."

Since its launch, NBC has developed independent design guidelines and accreditation frameworks that encourage developers to prioritise ecology, biodiversity, tree canopy, walkability and living landscapes alongside traditional sustainability measures. The organisation first focused on medium and high-density residential developments before recently expanding into precinct-scale communities and masterplanned neighbourhoods.

Jan Talacko, founder of sustainability consultancy Ark Resources and a member of the Nature Based Cities Advisory Council, says the initiative addresses an area that has largely been overlooked by the property industry.

"Throughout my 25 years of working collaboratively with all stakeholders in the property sector, I've always favoured a pragmatic approach to sustainable design which encourages initiatives that not only meet environmental expectations but also improve amenity," Talacko says.

"Whilst we are making steady progress in relation to energy and carbon emissions from buildings, there has been much less emphasis on encouraging biodiversity and tackling the urban heat island effect.

"The Nature Based Cities initiative responds to a gap in the suite of tools currently used by the property development sector, which don't provide sufficient incentive, or recognition, for the integration of landscaping and greenery."

For apartment buyers, the shift is also changing the questions worth asking.

Rather than assuming a sustainable building will naturally include abundant green space, buyers are increasingly being encouraged to look beyond environmental ratings and ask what nature is actually being delivered. How much tree canopy will the development create? Has biodiversity been considered? Are landscaped spaces designed for people as well as appearance?

As Australia's cities continue to grow upwards and outwards, the next generation of sustainability may not simply be measured by lower emissions, but by how successfully developments bring nature back into everyday urban life.

Michael Yardney

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