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GUEST OBSERVER
The RBA left its cash rate unchanged at 1.50 percent, as expected.
The post- meeting statement noted that 'having eased monetary policy at its May and August meetings, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time'. Much of the rest of the statement was very similar to last month.
The RBA seems content with the current stance of policy and we see this as unlikely to change any time soon. Tomorrow's Q2 GDP print will now be in focus, with timely partial indicators, released earlier today, suggesting some upside risk to our forecast for GDP growth of 3.2 percent y-o-y. Our central case has the RBA keeping its cash rate steady at 1.50 percent in coming quarters.
Facts
The RBA held its cash rate steady at 1.50 percent, as expected by all of the surveyed economists in the Bloomberg survey. Just prior to the decision the market was pricing a 2 percent chance of a 25bp cut.
Implications
Having delivered 50bp of cuts in the past four months, it was no surprise that the RBA held its cash rate steady today. With little more to say about the situation than that, the RBA's post-meeting statement was very similar to last month's.
As they pointed out, 'low interest rates have been supporting domestic demand and the lower exchange rate since 2013 is helping the traded sector'. In short, loose financial conditions are rebalancing growth in the economy. At the same time, 'inflation remains quite low', but the Board are of the view that the current stance of policy is 'consistent with ... achieving the inflation target over time'.
On the AUD, the RBA exercised its 'free lunch option' by stating that 'an appreciating exchange rate could complicate [the rebalancing of growth]'. There is no cost to the RBA in stating this. However, importantly, the RBA is not suggesting that the current level of the exchange rate is a worry.
On the established housing market, they continue to believe (as do we) that the housing price boom is over. While some measures show continued strong housing price growth, most are showing a slowdown and this easing in housing price growth is consistent with weaker new housing loan approvals and housing credit growth.
The focus now shifts to tomorrow's Q2 GDP print. Partial indicators, on balance, suggest some upside risk to our forecast for already above-trend growth of 3.2 percent y-o-y. Our central case sees strong growth driving further gradual improvement in the labour market, with wages growth stabilising and gradually climbing through 2017, supporting underlying inflation. With this in mind, our central case sees the RBA on hold in coming quarters. 
 <a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. 
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The housing price boom is over: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/64877/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The Sydney property market creates shocks that spill over to other capital cities, and Hobart is one of the worst affected, new research from the University of New South Wales shows.
The study looked at all eight Australian capital cities. Perth and Darwin’s housing market appeared to be the least affected by shocks originating in other capitals.
“We shouldn’t think of Australian housing markets as being completely isolated. It’s not the case that whatever happens in Sydney doesn’t have any implications for what happens in other housing markets,” says Associate Professor Glenn Otto, the author of the research.
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Professor Otto examined data on median house prices and rents, from the early 1980s till 2015, released quarterly by the Real Estate Institute of Australia.
He modelled how variations in capital gains and rental returns in each of the cities affected returns in other cities, over twelve month periods.
“You historically don’t see a big share of Brisbane or Melbourne type shocks spilling over to other markets,” Professor Otto noted.
The spillover effects to different capital city housing markets have been increasing over time since the mid 1990s and account for about 40 to 50% of the variance in forecast property returns to houses and units.
“From time to time you’ll get predictions that we’ve built too many units in the Melbourne housing market and there’s an oversupply and its specific to these markets, so we’ll see some price correction.
“The thing I was interested in was, looking at the historical data, was to what extent that correction won’t be specific to the particular market but also will feed through to other markets,” said Professor Otto.
The research also examined the split between houses and units. Although there wasn’t a huge difference in results for the two different dwelling types, the cities most affected by shocks in terms of units were Brisbane and Hobart and for houses it’s Canberra and Hobart.
Professor Otto is now planning to research what causes these spillover effects and what that can tell us about volatility in Australia’s housing market.
“Australian cities are quite isolated so we wouldn’t necessarily expect people to be picking up and moving between cities in response to changes in property prices, but what we might see is investors thinking about where they want to buy and sell property.
“To that extent investors may be becoming an increasingly important part of the housing market, maybe that’s one mechanism by which we can see this kind of effect of one city being transferred to another city,” Professor Otto said.
The research was funded by an Australian Research Council Linkage Project Grant.
Jenni Henderson is assistant editor, Business and Economy, The Conversation and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/team#jenni-henderson" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Sydney property market price shocks spread to other capital cities

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GUEST OBSERVER
After the RBA’s decision in August to cut the cash rate to a historic low of 1.5 percent, there is good reason to pause.
Unemployment fell slightly, but only because of a large increase in part-time employment. With consumer price inflation equalling 1.0 percent year-on-year, well below the RBA’s 2-3 percent target band, and wage growth a modest 2.1 percent year-on-year, there exist little immediate inflationary pressures.
The CAMA RBA Shadow Board clearly believes that the cash rate should not be cut any further. The Shadow Board attaches a 57 percent probability to a rate hold being the appropriate policy setting. The confidence attached to a required rate cut equals a mere 5 percent, while the confidence in a required rate hike equals 38 percent.
Australia’s unemployment rate fell ever so slightly, to 5.7 percent, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, as did the participation rate, which stands at 64.88 percent. June’s (revised) increase in full time employment of 44,000, was completely reversed in July.
Furthermore, part-time employment, after falling by 33,200 in June, increased by a whopping 71,590 in July. The overall increase in part-time employment, relative to full-time employment, may be cause for concern. While it may reflect a flexible, nimble labour market, it could also be a sign that the labour market is softening, capturing a degree of underemployment. The seasonally adjusted wage price index increased by 2.1 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2016, unchanged from the previous quarter.
For the last month the Aussie dollar, relative to the US dollar, has been range-bound, trading between 75 US¢ and 77 US¢. Yields on Australian 10-year government bonds rarely budged, remaining at their historic lows below 2 percent.
Domestic share prices peaked on 1 August and have retreated slightly since then. Worldwide, after the three-week rally in July, most stocks have been going sideways, confirming the old adage that August is a slow month for the share market.
Absent any major surprises in the world economy, prospects for economic growth in the major economic regions continue to be modest. Jobs growth in the US has been solid in June (292,000) and July (255,000), but predictions for the August statistic, to be announced on 2 September, are smaller. US investment numbers continue to be relatively weak and these are unlikely to improve significantly prior to the US election in November.
Brazil’s economic fortunes, after the recent deposition of its President, Dilma Rousseff, remain highly uncertain. Germany’s fiscal surplus of 1.2 percent of GDP for the first half of 2016 is not matched by the periphery’s economies. The imbalances between Germany and its Eurozone partners will generate further pressure for Germany to increase spending and provide stimulus for the region.
Consumer confidence, as measured by the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index, rose slightly. The manufacturing PMI, which measures the performance of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of 200 industrial companies, fell dramatically last month, from 56.40 to 46.90, the lowest reading since June 2015. Numbers for this month’s Services PMI have yet to be released. Capacity utilization remains just above 81 percent; after a big gain in June, the AIG Construction Performance Index receded slightly, from 53.2 to 51.6 in July.
The Shadow Board attaches a 57 percent probability (54 percent last month) that “no change” is the appropriate policy, a 5 percent probability (28 v last month) that a rate cut is appropriate and a 38 percent probability (18 percent in the previous month) that a rate rise, to 1.75 percent or higher, is appropriate. The substantial increase in the confidence attached to a rate rise (and the corresponding fall in the probability confidence attached to a rate cut) reflect the Shadow Board’s mild disagreement with the RBA’s decision to cut the cash rate in August.
The probabilities at longer horizons are as follows: 6 months out, the estimated probability that the cash rate should remain at 1.50 percent is virtually unchanged at 24 percent, one percentage point up from the previous month. The estimated need for an interest rate decrease equals 11 percent (29 percent in August), while the need for a rate increase equals 65 percent (48 percent in August).
A year out, the Shadow Board members’ confidence that the cash rate should be held steady equals 18 percent (16 percent in August), while the confidence in a required cash rate decrease equals 10 percent (26 percent in August) and in a required cash rate increase 72 percent (58 percent in August).
<a href="/images/2016/09/06/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%2010.31.20%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/06/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%2010.31.20%20AM.png" alt="">
For more information, <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/rba-shadow-board" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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No need for rates to go lower after last month’s cut: RBA Shadow Board

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GUEST OBSERVER
It was no surprise that the current competitive property market was causing many home buyers to lose sleep.
According to a survey released last week by St. George Bank, more than 50 percent of the 1,000 first home buyers surveyed were losing sleep over the property hunt while 25 percent found themselves losing focus at work. 
Unfortunately there was a common misnomer that buyer’s agents were just ‘for the wealthy’ and not for the average Australian home buyer. 
The old adage ‘you’ve got to spend money to make money’ was particularly relevant when engaging a buyer’s agent and first home buyers needed to be made aware that professional help was available. 
What a lot of people don’t realise is that an investment in a professional who’s been buying property for 10 or 20 years, who has the contacts and knows how to negotiate, is actually making you money and saving you money all at the same time.
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Generally speaking extremely wealthy people can afford to lose more money than your average first home buyer.
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It comes down to a level of risk and the average Australian first home buyer is not able to take that level of risk without professional advice. 
You only have to look at the average house price 10 years ago to now to see how prices have jumped in every capital city around Australia. 
Hindsight shows what you would have made in capital growth versus the cost of engaging a buyer’s agent. 
Likewise by panicking and either overpaying or not doing anything at all costs a whole lot more than engaging a professional.
When it comes to fees, there is no industry standard however the general rule of thumb is a two percent commission plus GST on the purchase price. 
On the flipside, some buyer’s agents choose to charge a fixed fee. 
It very much depends on the suburb you’re buying in, the price of the property and how much of the service you want to pay for. 
Maybe you’ve done all the research and you simply want an independent third party to validate your opinion or you would like a buyer’s agent to bid on your behalf at auction. 
At the end of the day you need to find the right buyer’s agent that’s giving you the right level of service. 
Like anything in life, quality comes at a cost.
Rich Harvey is REBAA president and can be contacted <a href="https://www.rebaa.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Property 101: Buyer's agents aren't just for the wealthy: Rich Harvey

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The incoming Governor, Philip Lowe, has welcomed the appointment by the Treasurer of Dr Guy Debelle to the position of Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia and as a member of the Reserve Bank Board. Dr Lowe said:
‘I warmly congratulate Dr Debelle on a well-deserved appointment as Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Over many years, he has made major contributions to the Bank’s economic and financial policies. He has also led some of the important international work aimed at improving the functioning of financial markets. I am confident that over the coming years the Reserve Bank Board will benefit greatly from his wealth of experience and expertise.’
Dr Debelle will take up his new role on 18 September. An Assistant Governor role will be advertised shortly.
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Guy Debelle appointed Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/64733/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The Federal Government’s plan to wind back superannuation tax breaks would create a fairer superannuation system more aligned to its purpose of providing income to supplement the Age Pension, according to new Grattan Institute analysis.
It would also contribute to budget repair.
The analysis shows how either of the reform packages proposed by both major parties would be a big step in the right direction. It explores how the current system provides much larger benefits to those with such ample resources that they will never qualify for an Age Pension. And it shows how the proposed changes would affect them - and pretty much nobody else.
As they debate the Coalition government’s proposals to wind back tax breaks on superannuation, politicians on all sides can do three big things: create a better and fairer superannuation scheme; take an important step towards repairing the Commonwealth budget; and show that our political system still works.
Both main parties have laid out their preferred reforms to super tax concessions. While they agree on all but the details, they are yet to strike a deal. Our new research shows what is at stake.
<h2>A better, fairer, super system</h2>
First and foremost, the proposed reforms to superannuation announced in the 2016 budget are about making super better, and fairer.
Tax breaks should only be available when they serve a policy aim. The purpose of super identified in the budget and <a href="https://sjm.ministers.treasury.gov.au/media-release/053-2016/">due to be defined in legislation</a> is to provide income in retirement to substitute or supplement the Age Pension. Super tax breaks don’t fulfil this purpose when they benefit those who were never going to qualify for an Age Pension in the first place.
The plans of both the government and the ALP would be big steps towards aligning super tax breaks more closely with their purpose. They would trim the generous super tax breaks enjoyed by the top 20% of income earners – people wealthy enough to be comfortable in retirement and unlikely to qualify for the Age Pension.
Retirees with large superannuation balances will start paying some tax on their superannuation savings, but still pay much less tax than wage earners on lower incomes. For a small proportion of women with higher incomes later in life, the changes will reduce their catch-up contributions. Yet the changes will reduce the tax breaks far more for wealthier old men.
Claims that the budget changes will affect many low and middle-income earners are wrong. Our research shows the changes will affect about 4 percent of superannuants, nearly all of them high-income earners who are unlikely to access the Age Pension. Nor are the proposed changes retrospective. Many reforms affect investments made in the past, and no-one suggests they are retrospective. Rather, the changes will affect taxes paid on future super earnings, and entitlements to make future contributions to super.
Any plausible combination of the packages on offer would make the super system fairer. At present, someone in the top 1% of income earners can expect to receive nearly three times as much in welfare and tax breaks from super in their lifetime as an average income earner. The government’s changes would trim some of these excesses: the top 1% would instead receive just twice as much as low or average income earners. And by targeting tax breaks that go to the top 20 percent of income earners, neither side’s plan would see much of an offsetting increase in Age Pension spending.
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Modelling on super reforms The Grattan Institute, Author provided
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<h2>An unsustainable tax system for seniors</h2>
Decisions by the former Coalition Government to abolish taxes on superannuation withdrawals in 2007 and radically increase the amount senior Australians could earn before paying income tax have dramatically reduced the tax bills of older Australians.
These changes are one of the main reasons why households over the age of 65 (unlike households aged between 25 and 64) now pay less income tax in real terms today than they did 20 years ago. At the same time, the workforce participation rates and incomes of seniors have jumped. Generous super tax breaks have been funded by deficits. The accumulating debt burden will disproportionately fall on younger households.
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Tax breaks to older Australians are also a major cause of the increase in the “taxed nots” identified by Treasurer Scott Morrison. The number of older Australians not paying any income tax has increased from three in four in 2000 to five in six today. The rise of these “taxed nots” coincides with the introduction of the Senior Australian Tax Offset in 2000, and tax-free super withdrawals in 2007.
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<h2>Repairing the budget</h2>
The increased cost of services and reduced taxes per older household explain in large part why the Commonwealth budget is in trouble. For eight years, budget deficits have persisted at about 2 to 3 percent of GDP, and the future looks little better. The returned Turnbull government is putting a priority on budget repair, now described as a “massive moral challenge” by the Prime Minister. Winding back some of the tax breaks given to older Australians during the happier times of the mining boom is an obvious step.
The government’s super package would save the budget at least A$800 million a year. Alternative proposals by the ALP, which broadly supports the Coalition’s reforms, and then goes further, would save more than A$2 billion a year. Should Treasurer Morrison seek a deal with the ALP or the Greens, any “concessions” will mostly improve the budget position.
Nor is the Turnbull government likely to find more attractive opportunities for budget savings. Unlike most of the government’s savings measures, changes to super tax breaks are broadly popular. Electorates more likely to be adversely affected by the super changes – that is, those with more old and wealthy voters – tended to swing less to the ALP at the last election than other electorates. And a survey before the election showed that the proposals had more support amongst those most likely to be adversely affected.
<h2>A test for our political system</h2>
Even after the reforms, super tax breaks will still mostly flow to high-income earners who do not need them, and the budgetary costs of super tax breaks will remain unsustainable in the long term. Further changes to super tax breaks will be needed in future. But agreeing to the super package now before the Parliament would be progress in the right direction. And there is a broader issue at stake.
Super is only the first of a number of difficult choices that will come before the Parliament as government seeks to promote economic growth in a sluggish global economy, and bring the budget back under control. There is no easy road to these ends that will keep everyone happy all the time. Pragmatic compromise will be critical.
The proposed changes to super tax breaks are built on principle, supported by the electorate and largely supported by the three largest political parties. If we cannot get reform in this situation, then our political system is in deep trouble. In coming weeks, our MPs have the chance to show how government in Australia can still change the nation for the better.
John Daley is chief executive officer, Grattan Institute, and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" target="_blank">here</a>.
Brendan Coates is a friend of The Conversation and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-coates-154644" target="_blank">here</a>.
William Young is associate, Grattan Institute and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/william-young-260984" target="_blank">here</a>.
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New Grattan research shows what is at stake in the superannuation debate

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Prices have again been on the rise, but will the mighty Sydney residential market be tamed this spring like last spring? That's the big question as we start the peak selling season.
Probably not by much as buying demand is strong, and new supply remains low.
The early September low stock levels pretty much following the trend of much of the year. New listings are down by 20 percent year on year, according to CoreLogic.
Normally low listings mean vendors don't think they can get their asking prices.
But there's no such lack of confidence on that front with the Sydney weekend auction clearance rates stepping up through the 70s and even into the 80 percent plus stellar success levels.
Yes there is a back-of-mind anxiety about the future of the Australian economy which inhibits some listing activity.
The mid-year Federal election certainly didn't help momentum with Tracey Fellows, the head of realestate.com.au, saying uncertainty surrounding the July election outcome contributed to listings being down 11 per cent compared last year. 
Sydney's boom-like conditions are now effectively four years long - give or take a few minor pauses since things started to turn upwards in mid-2012 - so those opportunistic speculative offerings by savvy operators have virtually been exhausted.
Sure there's always the demographic offerings - arising from births, deaths, marriages and divorce. But the common cry from many a prospective seller has been "where could I buy." And so they hold off their listing because they can't see the answer.
Last month at Pennant Hills, in Sydney's north-west, a four-bedroom family home sold for $1,824,000 at auction, at $174,000 above the highest offer made before the auction. 
The four-year-old house only went on sale because of a marriage breakdown.
It was strongly contested - with 10 registered bidders - in an area starved of stock, Ray White agent James Andrews said. 
There are 2555 homes in Pennant Hills and not one per cent is on the market, he noted.
"Stock levels are low. It's a very, very desirable area."
There are just five September auctions in Pennant Hills advertised on realestate.com.au, with Andrews having two of these offerings next weekend. There are another six houses listed by private treaty.
Housing market conditions are very different from region to region, capital city to capital city, but the unexpected re-emergence of strong price growth in Sydney has caught most forecasters - and presumably the RBA and APRA - off-guard. 
Tim Lawless who heads research at CoreLogic says listings matter.
"The number of properties being advertised for sale provides a vital clue about the direction of housing prices.
"Those cities where advertised stock levels remain short are continuing to see upwards price pressures, while cities with historically high stock levels are seeing downwards pressure."
CoreLogic is currently tracking just over 19,000 listings across the metro region of Sydney.
"As a comparison point, when the Sydney market was moving through a down phase between late 2010 and mid-2012, CoreLogic was tracking just over 40,000 properties on the market," Lawless advised.
"The fact that Sydney listing numbers remains so low is one of the factors providing the upwards pressure on housing prices.
"Buyers simply don’t have a lot of stock to choose from, which creates urgency in the market and provides leverage to vendors when setting and negotiating their prices," Lawless noted.
Being spring we are likely to see an upwards trend of newly advertised properties enter the market.
But will it be enough to tame the market’s strength?
This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph.
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Sydney spring price prospects to be shaped by stock influx

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/63394/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
New research on the business models of Fairfax and APN from 2004 to 2013 confirms the two companies have failed to transform their revenue structures from print to digital.
However, Fairfax CEO Greg Hywood argues that the company’s 2016 full year result is “proof that the [digital] transformation of Fairfax Media over recent years has succeeded".
Recently, American billionaire Warren Buffet said that for most American newspapers “the transition to the internet so far hasn’t worked in digital. The revenues don’t come in”. He added that “local newspapers continue to decline at a very significant rate”.
Despite the gloomy outlook, News Corporation is expanding its regional newspaper portfolio in Australia. The company is buying APN’s regional papers including 12 daily newspapers and 60 smaller publications.
In New Zealand, Fairfax Media and New Zealand Media Entertainment (NZME) are currently seeking merger approval from Commerce Commission. If the merger is cleared, the new company will have 89 percent market share in New Zealand’s print newspaper market. Fairfax is expected to own 51 percent of the merged company’s shares (currently, News Corp owns 14.99 percent of NZME shares).
Why the sudden interest in the sinking ship, print? Is it because the assets are cheap? In 2016 Fairfax made a heavy loss as it wrote down almost a billion dollars of its publishing assets.A closer look at News Corp’s and Fairfax’s revenue structures may shed some light on this interest in print.
In 2016, Fairfax’s Metro Media, Australian community media, and New Zealand media contributed 75% of the company’s total revenue. Domain Group delivered 16% of its total revenue.
This simply shows that the company’s revenue, if not profit, is still reliant on the traditional revenue streams. Similarly, in the 2016 financial year, 64% of News Corp’s revenue came from news and information services and 9.9% from digital real estate services.
<h2>Digital revenue covers a fraction of expenses</h2>
Both Fairfax and News Corp argue they are turning into truly digital media companies, and clearly, something is changing. Both companies seem confident that their digital future lies in real estate and listing services. Commenting on the 2016 results, News Corp chief executive Robert Thomson said:
“Since the advent of the new News three years ago, revenue at Digital Real Estate Services has more than doubled, and it is expected to become the biggest contributor to [earnings] in the future.”
Similarly, Fairfax’s chief executive Greg Hywood says digital and non-print earnings now make up more than 40 percent of Fairfax’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA). If this trend continues, he says, next year it will be closer to 60 percent.
Both companies make a decent profit on their digital real estate services (and the share of profit is growing), but Fairfax’s digital revenue currently covers only 14 percent of the companies' total expenses. So the company’s bright digital future clearly requires more cost cutting.
Recent research  shows that both Fairfax and News Corp have some work to do before they are “truly digital”, meaning the majority of their revenue comes from digital sources. For example, in 2015 digital revenue made 62 percent of media groups Norwegian Schibsted’s and German Axel Springer’s total revenue. For Fairfax, the same number was 16.4 percent and for News Corp 8 percent.
According to Fairfax, in 2016 its paid digital subscriptions grew 17 percent to 209,000. The revenue from these was $38 million, representing two percent of the company’s total revenue. News Corp’s digital subscriptions continue to grow and “account for approximately 45 percent of the subscriber base".
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The company states that “digital revenues represented 23 percent of news and information segment revenue". Based on this percentage, the digital revenue delivered by its news and information services made 1.2 percent of the company’s total revenue.
<h2>Convergences across telcos and media</h2>
A short-term outlook for the traditional television broadcasters in Australia and New Zealand is weak. For example, in August Seven West Media gave a profit warning and is expecting its profit to fall 15-20 percent in the coming year due to the flat advertising market. Its 2016 pre-tax profit was $207 million of which Channel Seven contributed 82 percent.
Clearly, digital transformation is proving challenging for television broadcasters as well as newspapers, and more consolidation can be expected across the sector. This will also occur across the media, telecom and internet service providers. In April, it was rumoured that APN and Nine Entertainment were considering a mega merger, but this is yet to materialise.
In New Zealand, the pay television provider Sky TV is seeking merger approval with Vodafone NZ. Sky TV says the merger is necessary because, “the change in how video content is delivered to consumers is transforming traditional television and content markets”. The company is facing increasing competition from companies such as Netflix, Quickflix and Apple TV.
Interestingly, Fairfax Media is also branching out in New Zealand by launching a new internet service provider – Stuff Fibre. The new service will offer uncapped ultra-fast broadband, unlimited data, and no fixed term contracts.
Fairfax is clearly seeking to expand and to control its online content and video delivery. In New Zealand, the company already has an agreement with Radio New Zealand and TVNZ for content delivery.
Yes, media companies are transforming, and they have to, as the financial results demonstrate. On Friday, APN announced that it is now an “outdoors media and radio” company, as opposed to a news publisher or news corporation. Fairfax and News Corp are starting to look more like digital real estate providers. This strategy makes business sense, but one has to wonder if there is still room for journalism within it.
Merja Myllylahti is project manager and author for Journalism, Media and Democracy (JMAD) Research Center, Auckland University of Technology and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/merja-myllylahti-106912" target="_blank">here</a>.
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News publishers are transforming, but into what?

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GUEST OBSERVER
Non-bank lending has become a phenomenon in the Australian property market. Although official statistics are hard to come by, anecdotal evidence suggests that private groups are lending Aussie companies and individuals billions of dollars each week.  
What created this amazing trend in private lending, what does the non-bank lending landscape look like and where will the market go next?  Delving into these questions will give you a good idea about the state of the Australian real estate market today.
How Did It All Start?
Non-bank lending has been going on in Australia for many years. Companies like Pepper and Resimac have taken over a huge chunk of the home mortgage market and Aussie Home Loans’ CEO John Symonds has for years been assuring Australians that “At Aussie, we’ll save you.”
In the commercial lending space, Development Finance Partners, MaxCap, Qualitas and Balmain Group have been underwriting property developments for a long time.
Things accelerated sharply, however, in July 2015 when the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), aided by BIS Shrapnel and egged on by the RBA, significantly increased the capital requirements for Australian banks.
This, along with the Labor Party’s aggressive stance on negative gearing, and a scandal involving falsified loan documents at ANZ and Westpac, has resulted in a significant slowdown in property lending by Australia’s Big 4 banks:
<a href="/images/2016/09/05/big-4-lending-book.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/05/big-4-lending-book.png" alt="">
Had the Big 4 continued to grow their investment housing lending book at the same average rate as they did the 12 months ended June 30, 2015, they would have lent an additional $68.4 billion into the market.
At the same time, the Big 4 have also begun to pull back on corporate lending, and while this trend is still emerging, it has added to the challenges faced by property buyers:
<a href="/images/2016/09/05/big-4-lending-book.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/05/big-4-lending-book.png" alt="">
Faced with dramatically tougher lending requirements, Australian property developers, investors and buyers have been scrambling to fill this $68 billion gap.
Old Problems
The lending drought has given new urgency to the age-old financing problems faced by every property developer.  Land banking, the first step in most property developments projects, has mostly been subjected to lower loan value ratios (LVRs), shorter loan terms and higher interest rates.  Development and mezzanine funding have also seen a toughening of terms, as well as the imposition of higher requirements for presales and decreased limits on the portion of offshore sales allowed.
Perhaps the problem that’s proven most urgent, dangerous and difficult to solve has been settlement pipeline financing.  Although final settlements often only account for 20% of the total sales price, many borrowers, especially foreign investors, have found it impossible to obtain financing of any kind for this portion of the acquisition.
This has created a great deal of nervousness around settlement pipelines, and the possibility that large numbers of buyers would fail to settle their purchases.
While this has not happened and, in fact, groups like Lendlease have announced higher than anticipated, settlement risk remains a concern in many corners.
New Solutions
The challenges of property developers and investors have attracted the attention of private lenders looking to charge premium rates and fill the gap left by the banks. In addition to established players like Wingate, Balmain and a host of existing property funds, three new groups have stepped into the market.
The first of these new entrants are cashed-up Australian property developers. These players are usually large property companies that are flush from the recent completion of a project.
They tend to be highly localized, only lending into a particular type of development (e.g. only high-rise apartments) and only in one geographic area (e.g. Melbourne CBD).  These lenders are often looking for ways to get into the projects they’re funding, with an eye to taking over the development if the borrower is unable to repay the loan.
A more opportunistic group includes purpose-created special investment vehicles, family offices and high-net worth investors. This group is attracted to the high interest rates and strong security positions on offer. These players are more transactional, less strategic and much less established than cashed up developers.
The final group consists of foreign banks, investment funds and high-net worth investors, particularly from the US, China, Singapore and Malaysia. These entities are often connected to property investors from their home country, who have some knowledge of the Australian market and who see an opportunity to further their investment goals by jumping in where the large Australian banks have moved out.
Taken together, these new sources of non-bank lending are beginning to make a substantial impact on Australia’s property lending deficit.
David Chin is managing director, Basis Point, and can be contacted <a href="https://basispoint.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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The surprising rise of non-bank lending in the Australian property market

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GUEST OBSERVER
The life of Defence Force personnel is volatile to say the least. Serving members can suddenly find themselves sent off to the furthest reaches of the globe with little notice.
Or they can be shifting bases around Australia, New Zealand or the Pacific. Of course, they could also be sent into battle in the depths of a war zone. 
This is why the men and women of our Defence Force are so highly, and deservedly, renumerated - from subsidised costs in housing and education to transport and health. But it’s a little known secret that they’re in the box seat to get terrific benefits from property investment. Like many professionals, Defence Force personnel are time poor and probably don’t even think of themselves as potential investors.
In fact, Defence Force personnel have a head start over most investors due to the housing support and rental subsidy issued to them by Defence Housing. This means that their outgoing expenses are far lower than most Australians. It immediately gives them extra cash that can be used to fund investment. 
There are many good reasons why property investment especially suits members of the Defence Force. Let’s run through a few of them:
Secure with Long Term Growth
Australian property investment is deeply entrenched in the long-term.  For Defence Force members it’s perfect, as it requires very little management once it’s set up. Consider other investment options like shares, which are always going to be volatile. These options require the owner to be constantly agile and flexible and most of all, highly attentive and responsive to the market. Yes, you can have a personal stockbroker managing them for you, but this person will still be contacting you frequently for your sign off. It’s also been clearly demonstrated that property is a far more profitable and safe investment than stocks and shares in the very long term. 
Defence personnel make the perfect investors, yet most are unaware of their own massive potential.
Property is far less responsive and reactive than shares. A financial melt down in the US, for instance, is unlikely to affect the capital growth of a house in Wollongong. The property market in Australia has always been and will continue to offer stability. Australia will always be a desirable place to live and that is a certainty that cannot be said about other kinds of investment markets.
Once the investor has chosen an affordable property in an area of demonstrated capital growth, this means they have very little to stress about. As long as they have a good property manager in place, the property will ideally pay for itself as well as accumulating years of strong capital growth.
This suits the life of a Defence Force member, especially when they are deeply immersed in their work and their busy lifestyle that doesn’t allow them time to focus on investments. If you’re suddenly about to fly into the Middle East the last thing you want to worry about is selling your stock options. Fortunately, well-researched property investment means that you won’t have to. 
SAM KHALIL is founder and director of <a href="https://www.dpn.com.au/" target="_blank">DPN</a>. 
 
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How to crack the property market as a Defence Force professional

A landmark former orphanage site in Surrey Hills could be transformed into a new residential community under plans lodged by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/antipodean-land-developments">Antipodean Land Developments</a> that would deliver 76 apartments and townhouses while restoring some of the suburb's most significant heritage buildings.

The burgeoninng Melbourne-based developer has submitted plans for the 9,158 sqm site at 1 Kent Road and 24 Durham Road, home to the former St Joseph's Home for Destitute Children, a historic institutional complex dating back to the late 19th century. The proposal seeks to adaptively reuse several heritage buildings while introducing two new four-storey residential buildings set within extensive landscaped grounds.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> and Kerstin Thompson Architects, the project has been conceived as a contemporary residential village embedded within a restored heritage precinct. The development team describes the design approach as "The Village in the Garden," with new buildings positioned among mature landscaping by OCULUS and significant heritage structures.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44ec8c1b-c0b6-44ae-859e-5811b3e6a023" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%281%29.png?VersionId=p.p1_KFh4iQoV4nisdnPfQBAsWNi7m79" />

The proposal would deliver 76 dwellings comprising a mix of apartments and duplex-style residences, significantly increasing housing supply on one of the largest privately held residential landholdings in Surrey Hills. The development includes 127 car spaces, 24 bicycle spaces and more than 1,000 sqm of communal amenity, with the existing chapel building earmarked for conversion into resident facilities.

According to the planning submission, the project centres on the restoration and adaptive reuse of the site's most significant heritage assets, including the original c.1889 St Joseph's building, the chapel designed by architect Augustus Andrew Fritsch, and the historic brick perimeter walls and entry gates. The proposal also incorporates the retention of other contributory buildings including the former infirmary and school building.

Tract Consultants, in the planning report accompanying the application, said the scheme had been shaped through extensive heritage analysis and design development.

"The shared vision for the Site by the project team has culminated in a scheme which successfully breathes life back into a historic site while delivering upon the objectives of Victoria's Housing Statement in a carefully curated and contextually responsive manner."

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7263b7d8-95ea-400f-9531-6ca7d22c3c33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%282%29.png?VersionId=4cR1tiWOsDpgxEOwZi5vVFcyvvOsYkIE" />

The proposal is being assessed under Victoria's Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway. As part of the application, three per cent of the project's residential development cost would be contributed to the Social Housing Growth Fund. The development would also provide a diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences targeting a broader range of buyers than typically found in Surrey Hills' detached housing market.

Sustainability initiatives include an anticipated 66 per cent BESS score, natural cross-ventilation to 80 per cent of apartments, 28 per cent deep soil landscaping and a canopy cover outcome exceeding local planning requirements. The proposal also sets aside more than 1,083 sqm for communal indoor and outdoor resident amenity spaces.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="33fad46f-fe26-4d0a-acfd-6b776e1c6a3d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design.png?VersionId=D9F6WVSyYCtGvSUmith35LRp6R7PQkw_" />

Planning documents describe the property as one of the largest underutilised residential sites in Surrey Hills, arguing it presents a rare opportunity to introduce "missing middle" housing in an established inner-eastern suburb while preserving and revitalising a significant heritage precinct.

Antipodean Land Developments has built a reputation for design-focused residential projects across Melbourne, particularly in the medium-density sector. Previous developments include Neighbourhood in Brunswick East, delivered with Breathe Architecture, and Balfe Park Lane, designed by Kerstin Thompson Architects.

They've been very active in site acquisition as they build out their future development pipeline. They recently launched Thornubury House, 45 apartments above a mix of commercial, retail, and food and beverage tenancies, and have plans for a boutique project in Fitzroy and another <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/antipodean-plan-apartments-for-deepdenes-missing-middle-on-whitehorse-road">"missing middle" project</a> on Deepdene's Whitehorse Road.

Joel Robinson

First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills

Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/auyin-property-development">Auyin</a> is the latest to turn to the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program in an effort to secure approval for its long-planned, mixed-use project in Elsternwick.

In 2018, Auyin lodged plans with Glen Eira City Council for a 14-storey building, however Council approved a reduced eight-storey scheme. A subsequent VCAT appeal in 2019 upheld the eight-storey height limit.

The project was later amended to nine storeys, but Auyin is now seeking to revive something closer to its original vision. The developer argues that the planning context has evolved significantly over the past decade, particularly within the Elsternwick Activity Centre, where higher-density development has increasingly been encouraged along Glen Huntly Road.

The proposal would transform the 1,239 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/7-12-horne-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">7-15 Horne Street</a>, opposite Elsternwick Railway Station, into a 13-storey residential and retail development designed by CBG Architects, with 40 apartments

The site currently comprises three commercial properties.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5f465dd4-509b-4082-a669-0253b313914b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20podium.png?VersionId=72frWi0SmQ5AVJ3ARRhX5ILUYObhTm7x" />

The proposed apartment mix comprises 25 two-bedroom and 15 three-bedroom residences above 200 sqm of retail space at ground level. Residents would have access to a 90 sqm wellness facility, a 351 sqm communal indoor and outdoor terrace on the third level, and extensive landscaped areas throughout the development. A publicly accessible 135 sqm plaza would be created on the north-east corner of the site, providing seating, landscaping, and a new gathering space adjoining Horne Street.

The design adopts a four-storey podium that references the finer-grain character of the surrounding streetscape, with the upper tower recessed behind generous setbacks on all boundaries.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e637e763-2abc-4c34-a0aa-5c7ad36fae18" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20open.png?VersionId=J1AoOpZgTyaF.KeeFSX6lMjEScX8KKRi" />

A key element of the proposal is the reconfiguration and widening of the surrounding laneways. Vehicle access would be retained from Lois Lane, with upgraded pedestrian connections linking Ross Street and Horne Street. The development would provide 58 residential car spaces, two retail car spaces, and 52 bicycle spaces across two basement levels and ground-floor facilities.

Architecturally, the building draws inspiration from the established character of Elsternwick Village. The façade combines dark charcoal brickwork, textured concrete, bronze-toned metal detailing, and extensive planting integrated into podium and tower levels. The design also incorporates a chamfered corner treatment and publicly accessible plaza intended to strengthen pedestrian activity around the station precinct.

Elsternwick's last new development completion was&nbsp;EVA Elsternwick by Pitard late last year. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/milieu-property">Milieu</a> is working away on its nature-led neighbourhood, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elsternwick-gardens-by-milieu-8-gordon-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick Gardens</a>, on Gordon Street, with its first stage expected to complete next year.

First look: Auyin seeks mixed-use apartment project in growing Elsternwick Activity Centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/otium-parkdale-123-125-como-parade-east-parkdale-vic-3195">Otium Parkdale</a>, the 13-residence boutique development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/huxtable-property">Huxtable Property</a>, has entered its final stages of delivery, with completion expected within the coming month and more than half of the residences sold.

The Como Parade East project is nearing the finish line at a time when opportunities to purchase new apartments in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parkdale-vic-3195">Parkdale</a> remain exceptionally limited. Fewer than 10 per cent of dwellings in the bayside suburb are apartments, making developments like Otium a relatively rare addition to a market traditionally dominated by detached housing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5427]

The three-level development comprises 13 residences, including ten two-bedroom apartments and three larger three-bedroom homes, all positioned above a secure basement car park.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/almeida-architects">Almeida Architects</a> with a strong connection to its coastal surroundings, Otium combines red brick, exposed concrete and dark metal detailing with integrated landscaping and greenery. Expansive glazing, generous balconies and terraces have been incorporated throughout the design to maximise natural light and reinforce indoor-outdoor living.

Inside, the residences feature engineered European oak flooring, natural and reconstituted stone benchtops, Bosch kitchen appliances, ducted heating and cooling, lift access and secure entry systems. The larger three-bedroom residences on the upper level have been designed with house-like proportions, while the two-bedroom apartments prioritise functionality, flexibility and low-maintenance living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5421]

The project is now in its final stages, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/labco">Labco</a> completing the remaining landscaping and external finishing works following the completion of the residences' interiors.

Otium's location within the heart of Parkdale continues to underpin its appeal. Residents will be just steps from local cafés, restaurants, shops and the newly elevated Parkdale Station, while the beach is less than a kilometre away.

With the project tracking ahead of schedule, buyers can currently secure a residence with a five per cent deposit and benefit from settlement terms of up to eight months. The advanced stage of construction also provides buyers with the opportunity to walk through the near-complete residences and experience the quality and finishes firsthand ahead of completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134974]

Otium Parkdale enters final month before completion as rare apartment opportunity nears sellout

A new boutique apartment development is entering the market in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chermside-qld-4032">Chermside</a>, with Brisbane-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ausdev">Ausdev</a> bringing 33 residences to a well-connected pocket of Brisbane's north.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/parkdrive-apartments-chermside-25-sammells-drive-chermside-qld-4032">Parkdrive Apartments</a>, at 25 Sammells Drive, will comprise a mix of one- and two-bedroom residences positioned within walking distance of Westfield Chermside, The Prince Charles Hospital, and Bradbury Park.

Established in 1989, Ausdev has a long-standing presence across both development and construction, with Parkdrive Apartments representing its latest residential project in Brisbane's northern suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363778]

The development has been designed around open-plan living and natural light, with residences featuring stone benchtops, timber cabinetry, BOSCH appliances, and private balconies that extend the living areas outdoors.

Kitchens are positioned as the centrepiece of the homes, incorporating natural material palettes and integrated appliances, while bathrooms have been designed with a focus on functionality and understated finishes.

Residents will have access to a communal barbecue and entertaining area on Level 3, providing shared outdoor space within the development. Secure parking and lift access are also incorporated into the building.

The project will deliver a limited collection of 33 apartments, with one-bedroom residences priced from $749,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363782]

Beyond the building itself, the location places residents within easy reach of several of Chermside's key amenities. Bradbury Park is around 350 metres away, while Westfield Chermside is approximately 1.3 kilometres from the site. The Prince Charles Hospital is located within 750 metres, and the Chermside Bus Interchange is around 1.5 kilometres away, providing connections across Brisbane.

Parkdrive Apartments adds to the growing residential pipeline in Chermside, a suburb that continues to evolve as a major retail, healthcare, and transport hub for Brisbane's north.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152125]

Ausdev introduces boutique Parkdrive Apartments to Chermside's growing centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/skymark-group">Skymark</a>'s boutique Cronulla development Solis has secured a 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy through Resilience Insurance, providing buyers of the 16-residence building on Ewos Parade with structural and waterproofing protection that extends a decade beyond the building's completion.

Currently under construction and due for completion in late 2027, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/solis-cronulla-8-ewos-parade-cronulla-nsw-2230">Solis</a> is one of a small number of new developments in the Sutherland Shire to carry Resilience LDI coverage, a distinction that carries increasing weight as buyer confidence in the off-the-plan sector continues to be shaped by how developers stand behind their product.

Latent Defects Insurance, which entered the Australian market in 2022 when Resilience Insurance was approved to offer the cover, protects buyers against major structural or waterproofing defects for ten years post-completion. Unlike traditional statutory warranties, it operates as a first-resort policy, if a covered defect arises, the insurer responds directly, without the buyer needing to pursue the builder or developer through a lengthy claims process.

Resilience Insurance CEO Corey Nugent has noted that the product addresses something fundamental to the new apartment market.

"The overarching feedback from prospective buyers in the new development space is that they want more confidence and assurances around the quality of the build," Nugent says.

"Resilience Insurance Latent Defects Insurance not only gives them complete peace of mind for 10 years, but it shows the developer they are buying from is standing by their product."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370898]

For Solis, the Resilience LDI policy adds a meaningful layer of accountability to an already considered project. The development comprises nine two-bedroom and seven three-bedroom residences, including one dual-level three-bedroom apartment, across a five-storey building on Ewos Parade, positioned between Shelly Beach and South Cronulla.

Garden apartments connect directly to private landscaped courtyards, while upper-level homes capture beach views to the east from level four and above.&nbsp;

All 16 residences include at least one balcony or courtyard, and select apartments on the upper floors feature bar areas and secondary flexible living spaces.

Hiba Sander, Managing Director of Skymark, says Solis offers a rare balance, nestled between the quiet beauty of secluded beaches and the lively charm of South Cronulla's esplanade.

"It's a place to choose your pace and live gracefully, seaside'," Sander says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370900]

The architecture, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ida-design-group">IDA Design Group</a>'s Michael Trinh, draws from the natural erosion patterns of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/cronulla-nsw-2230">Cronulla</a>'s sandstone headlands, translating the organic forms of the coastline into soft curves, pavilion-style massing, and a material palette chosen for longevity in a salt-tinged environment.&nbsp;

Textured natural stone, soft renders, and timber-look battens reference the tones of the surrounding cliffs, while the building has been oriented to maximise natural light and passive ventilation, with primary living spaces facing north and east to capture morning sun and sea breezes.

"At Solis, our aim was to create architecture that feels quietly confident, grounded in natural materials like stone and timber, and elevated by light and landscape," Trinh says.&nbsp;

"The buildings are designed to sit gently within their coastal surrounds, with expansive glazing and abundant greenery creating a seamless dialogue between inside and out."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370897]

Interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hot-black">Hot Black</a> carry the same material language through to every room. Kitchens feature integrated Gaggenau appliances, sculpted stone benchtops, and Lo &amp; Co joinery, while bathrooms feature natural stone, timber, and brushed metal finishes.&nbsp;

Hot Black Founder and Design Director Sophie Safrin describes the intent as one of considered restraint: "At Solis, every detail has been thoughtfully considered to create a timeless coastal retreat, calm, refined, and effortlessly liveable. From natural finishes to seamless indoor-outdoor flow, Solis offers a quiet elegance that's deeply connected to its surroundings.

The landscape, designed by Julian Brady of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/sitedesignstudios">Site Design Studios</a>, treats green space as an integral part of the resident experience rather than an afterthought.&nbsp;

"Gentle curves and layered native plantings mirror the ebb and flow of the ocean," Julian Brady says, "creating a serene connection between architecture and place."&nbsp;

Coco Republic has provided bespoke furniture packages tailored to the project's coastal palette.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370899]

Skymark has an established track record in the Sutherland Shire, with a portfolio spanning Cronulla, Woolooware and Burraneer that includes Isla, Sylva, Bask, Shells, Sula and Mist. Securing LDI on Solis reflects a broader shift in how the developer is positioning its buildings to buyers, at a time when Resilience Insurance expects the policy to become mandatory in New South Wales by 2028.

Sales at Solis are launching soon through Ray White Projects, with an official event scheduled for 11 June. Enquire for more information.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150499]

Jonathan Chancellor

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