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SPONSORED POST
It is no secret that Macquarie Park has been a favourite amongst Australia’s leading property developers and investors with AMP, Goodman, Stockland and the like all taking a substantial stake in the precinct.
Since the early days in the mid 1960’s when the bushland suburb of North Ryde was rezoned for employment land, developers and prospective investors have found solace in the safe havens of Macquarie Park which has transformed into the “Silicon Valley of Sydney” with global tech and software giants such as Microsoft, Oracle and Novartis calling it home.
Macquarie University was built in the early 1960’s as Sydney’s much needed third university, construction of residential dwellings then transpired around the fringes and soon after Macquarie Shopping Centre opened for business which proved to be a major draw card for international and domestic businesses. Since then, Macquarie Park has positioned itself as a power house in the commercial market with over 850,000 square meters of office space creating a work force of over 45,000 and with a competitive 7 percent vacancy rate.
Since 2015 when the Herring Road Precinct was rezoned, we have seen a new form of investment with local and international residential developers acquiring all the newly re zoned land with over $1 billion dollars being transacted since 2015. According to the NSW Government there is over $2.7 billion in Development Applications awaiting approval with a substantial amount also in the pipeline.
The newly created strata laws brought into effect on 1 December 2016 has proven to be the catalyst for site amalgamations in the Herring Road precinct.
Savills Residential Site Sales Directors Stuart Cox and Neil Cooke have been instrumental in amalgamating these sites and have recently taken <a href="https://commercialpropertysearch.savills.com.au/bc8f85aa-9be2-e611-80c7-005056813885/Sale/Macquarie-Park/Macquarie-Park" target="_blank">15-19 Cottonwood Crescent</a> to market with an outstanding response from international and local developers in the first couple of days.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-07%20at%209.36.43%20AM.png" alt="" width="570" height="359">
This site encapsulates three existing blocks of 15 two bedroom apartments, capable of being redeveloped into a landmark 21 storey 200 unit development under the current development controls.
According to Stuart Cox, “The re-gentrification of Macquarie Park will be home to over 10,000 new dwellings in the next 10 years with residents benefiting from the governments heavy involvement in upgrading public infrastructure through integrated transport connections and improving transport times to and from Sydney and Parramatta CBD’s.”
Strong demand for Macquarie Park has always stemmed from its education and retail backbone that has provided for over 40,000 students and 45,000 employees, new demand stems from the proximity to Sydney and Parramatta CBD’s through the new Metro Sydney Project which will provide trains every four minutes in peak hours.
Macquarie Park is also the second largest employment region in NSW and the fourth largest CBD in Australia with employment figures by BIS Shrapnel quoting a growth of over 40,000 new jobs by 2031. Residential developers have recently been acquiring sites at rates well in excess of $3,500 per square meter of Gross Floor Area for the privilege to own and develop in the extremely hot Herring Road Precinct.
This article was written by Johnathon Broome, Savills Residential Site Sales Executive.
For more information from Savills, <a href="https://www.savills.com.au" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Billionaires play in the Park

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GUEST OBSERVER
We need more justification around the NSW Government’s solution for housing affordability after it revealed no concessions would be afforded to buyers making property purchases over $800,000.
The measures, taken to cabinet last week, proposed stamp duty would be abolished on all homes up to $650,000 and relief to buyers of homes up to $800,000.
My offices are already experiencing vendors around both the $650,000 and $800,000 price points asking agents to list their homes for slightly more, given that first home buyers will soon have more to spend. 
When first home buyer grants were introduced a few years ago, as a group, we saw the same thing. The market needs to find its natural level, as otherwise these measures could prove counter-productive and possibly even lead to an artificial increase in prices.
The new measures certainly look like a step in the right direction, but we need to stop the applause and critique the performance. It is a complex matter, as the State Government needs to protect the cash cow that is stamp duty, but also make an attempt at solving the affordability crisis.
If the intention is to alleviate affordability woes amongst first home buyers, how did it reach the figure of $650,000? This tells me the measure was designed to drive more first home buyers into apartments.
With far fewer investors as a result of the macro-prudential measures and tens of thousands of new apartments in the pipeline, who is going to buy them otherwise?
Sydney’s median dwelling price is $872,300 – two thirds the figure proposed for abolishing stamp duty, and according to CoreLogic, 20 percent of Sydney Metro dwellings sold at a price of $650,000 or less over the past 12 months were houses.
This rises to 34.4 percent when looking at dwellings that sold for a price of $800,000 or less.
Last year, the apartment development boom raised concerns about an apartment oversupply in Sydney. The stamp duty changes are designed to drive more first home buyers into apartments. 
First home buyers currently represent about four to five percent of the market. We need to get this to double digits and this measure might not do that.
When you really look at it against the market, less than 10 percent of Sydney’s suburbs would have homes with a median price below $650,000.
If the Government was serious about alleviating barriers, it would completely abolish stamp duty for first home buyers or at the very least make the first $650,000 exempt, irrespective of the purchase price, and not cap it at a price that forces people into apartments to reverse engineer the cycle. 
In addition to believing first home buyers be exempt from paying stamp duty, they should have to reside in the property to be eligible. 
However you spin it, rentvestors are still investors, and we have been overly advocating rentvesting as a wealth strategy, which is taking its toll on the market.
The base of the affordability iceberg is that there have been too many investors in the market and unless we’re careful, these measures could inadvertently make things worse. It is further exacerbating the problem which APRA has tried so hard to alleviate. 
If the Government is not open to completely abolishing stamp duty for first home buyers on all properties, concessions should at least be tracked against median house prices annually. 
House prices are relative against the cost of living – someone in the Eastern suburbs might pay more for property compared to someone in Western Sydney, but they are usually paying more for everything – not just property. Therein lies the problem – the affordability crisis is a Sydney issue, not necessarily a State issue. 
Regional NSW first home buyers are set to benefit the most from this, but what about buyers in Sydney’s Inner West, Lower North Shore, Eastern Suburbs and the South?
If you are looking to buy in these areas and hoping to benefit from the abolishment of stamp duty for properties up to $650,000, you can either uproot your life, don’t buy at all, or buy a garage.
DOUGLAS DRISCOLL is CEO of real estate agency <a href="https://www.starrpartners.com.au/" target="_blank">Starr Partners</a>.
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Budget failing many buyers: Douglas Driscoll

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/78830/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
With the release of the March quarter national accounts, there have been reports the Australian economy could break the Netherlands’ “world record” for continuous growth. But there are three problems with this assertion.
It’s now been 103 quarters (25 years and 9 months) since Australia last had consecutive quarters of negative growth in real gross domestic product (GDP), in the March and June quarters of 1991. 
Contrary to much-repeated claims, the Netherlands didn’t experience more than a quarter-century of economic growth without consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between the early 1980s and the global financial crisis.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-07%20at%208.04.52%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-07%20at%208.04.52%20AM.png" alt="">
The Netherlands’ real GDP declined by 0.3 percent in the June quarter of 2003, and by 0.01 percent in the September quarter of that year, according to data published by Statistics Netherlands and, separately, by the OECD. So, at best, the Netherlands went for only 22 years without experiencing a recession. Australia surpassed that benchmark in 2013.
Yes, that second quarterly decline in 2003 was almost imperceptible. But sporting records are delineated by margins as small as one one-hundredth of a second, so we can’t blithely discount a -0.01 percent fall in real GDP as “not relevant”.
Even if you blinked and missed that tiny second successive decline in real GDP in the September quarter of 2003, the Netherlands still wouldn’t hold the record for the longest run of continuous economic growth. That belongs to Japan – which, according to OECD data, went from the March quarter of 1960 to the March quarter of 1993 without ever registering two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP. That’s 133 quarters, or more than 33 years. 
Indeed, if Japanese GDP data were available on a quarterly basis earlier than 1960 it’s likely that this run of continuous economic growth would have been even longer, perhaps as long as 38 years, inferring from annual data available back to 1955. So Australia would need to avoid consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth until at least 2024 if it is truly to be able to claim this “world record” as its own.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-07%20at%208.06.30%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-07%20at%208.06.30%20AM.png" alt="">
Even more importantly, the definition of a technical recession as (two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP) is, as former RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said, “not very useful”. It was originally proposed in December 1974 by Julius Shishkin, who at that time was the head of the Economic Research and Analysis Division of the US Census Bureau (now the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which publishes the US national accounts). 
It’s not used to identify recessions in the US. It takes no account of differences over time, or as between countries, in the rates of growth of either population or productivity – which are the key determinants of whether a given rate of economic growth is sufficient to prevent a sharp rise in unemployment. This is something which most people (other than economists) would use to delineate a recession.
While Australia has avoided consecutive quarterly contractions in real GDP since the first half of 1991, we’ve had two periods of consecutive quarterly declines in real per capita GDP (in 2000 and 2006). We’ve also had two periods of consecutive quarterly declines in real gross domestic income or GDI, which takes account of income gains or losses accruing from movements in Australia’s terms of trade (in 2008-09, and in 2014). Perhaps most meaningfully of all, Australia has had two episodes where the unemployment rate has risen by one percentage point or more in 12 months or less (in 2001 and 2009).
That’s still a better track record than almost any other advanced economy during the past quarter-century or so – and it reflects well on the quality of economic management (and the nature of our luck) over this period. Nonetheless, we shouldn’t be in the business of awarding ourselves prizes to which we’re not entitled.
Saul Eslake is vice-chancellor’s Fellow, University of Tasmania and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/saul-eslake-665" target="_blank">here</a>.
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There’ll be no records set this week by Australian economic growth figures: Saul Eslake

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Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 percent.
The broad-based pick-up in the global economy is continuing. Labour markets have tightened further in many countries and forecasts for global growth have been revised up since last year. Above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. In China, growth is being supported by increased spending on infrastructure and property construction, with the high level of debt continuing to present a medium-term risk. Commodity prices are generally higher than they were a year ago, providing a boost to Australia's national income. The prices of iron ore and coal, however, have declined over recent months as expected, unwinding some of the earlier increases.
Headline inflation rates in most countries have moved higher over the past year, partly reflecting the higher commodity prices. Core inflation remains low, as do long-term bond yields. Further increases in US interest rates are expected over the year ahead and there is no longer an expectation of additional monetary easing in other major economies. Financial markets have been functioning effectively.
Domestically, the transition to lower levels of mining investment following the mining investment boom is almost complete. Business conditions have improved and capacity utilisation has increased. Business investment has picked up in those parts of the country not directly affected by the decline in mining investment. Year-ended GDP growth is expected to have slowed in the March quarter, reflecting the quarter-to-quarter variation in the growth figures. Looking forward, economic growth is still expected to increase gradually over the next couple of years to a little above 3 per cent.  
Indicators of the labour market remain mixed. Employment growth has been stronger over recent months, although growth in total hours worked remains weak. The various forward-looking indicators point to continued growth in employment over the period ahead. Wage growth remains low and this is likely to continue for a while yet. Inflation is expected to increase gradually as the economy strengthens. Slow growth in real wages is restraining growth in household consumption.
The outlook continues to be supported by the low level of interest rates. The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment.
Conditions in the housing market vary considerably around the country. Prices have been rising briskly in some markets, although there are some signs that these conditions are starting to ease. In other markets, prices are declining. In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years. Rent increases are the slowest for two decades. Growth in housing debt has outpaced the slow growth in household incomes. The recent supervisory measures should help address the risks associated with high and rising levels of indebtedness. Lenders have also announced increases in mortgage rates, particularly those paid by investors and on interest-only loans.
Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2017/mr-17-12" target="_blank">The RBA statement</a>.
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First signs housing price growth was easing: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's June 2017 statement

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GUEST OBSERVER
Mega-trends such as urbanisation and technology are set to have a profound effect on our basic living habits and homes.
In this instalment of our ‘Homes of the Future’ series, we look into how our living rooms will need to adapt for the future. 
The look and feel of the space
With increasing urban populations, the spaces that we live in may become increasingly smaller. 
The design of the space may change, shifting to designs with less clutter and visual noise. Theo Richardson, an industrial designer and co-founder of Rich Brilliant Willing, believes we will see simpler lines, bold forms and bold solid colours.
Business Leader at IKEA Eja Tuominen explains that people want to slow down and relax, and therefore are focusing on living areas around the themes of growing, creation, harmony and compact living, ensuring calm spaces are present as part of the design. 
Multi-functionalism
Other changes we expect to see will be furniture that is more transformable and multi-functional. Future furniture should have integrated technology to make it more responsive both ergonomically and via bio-feedback. For example, a couch may adjust configuration depending on whether there are guests present or if you are relaxing by yourself.
Technology and entertainment
Looking at the future of living rooms, whilst the basic functions will remain the same, the increasing role of technology will change our traditional modes of communication and entertainment. For example, instead of sitting and chatting with friends in person or over the phone, you may instead be speaking to them via hologram. Instead of watching television or playing console games, you may be involved in virtual reality experiences.
Imagine a living room with complete integration between appliances and architecture. At the Consumer Electronics Show, Sony explored a conceptual living room where a mirror became a touchscreen panel, syncing to the wall which transformed into a giant screen, with overhead lighting that projected films. 
Immersive entertainment experiences are already being investigated by many brands, including Microsoft Research’s IllumiRoom video which brings to life the potential of film and game projections coming out of the TV, and Xbox One’s enhanced Kinnect sensor allowing participatory fitness and leisure products with personalised coaching in the home.
Another enhancement we may see in the near future is adding a fourth dimension (motion) to home entertainment – allowing our furniture to move and vibrate in conjunction with our entertainment to allow for a more immersive experience.
Ged Rockliff is the Head of Residential, Savills, and can be contacted <a href="https://www.savills.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
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How will urbanisation and technology affect living rooms of the future? Ged Rockliff 

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/77784/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
In its 2017 federal budget, the Australian government included a 0.06 percent levy on Australia’s biggest five banks: ANZ, the Commonwealth, NAB, Westpac and Macquarie Bank.
The levy will collectively cost the banks A$1.6 billion a year, and by some estimates will raise the overall cost of funding for the affected banks by around 0.03 percent. Many commentators have suggested this cost will be passed directly onto customers.
In an interview on the ABC’s Insiders program, Treasurer Scott Morrison said the banks could absorb the cost of the levy, given the size of their profits.
He said Australia’s large banks have between a 0.2 percent to 0.4 percent advantage because of the way Australia’s regulatory regime works and that Australian banks have a return on equity about twice that of banks in other advanced developed economies.
Is that right?
Checking the source
When asked for sources to support his statement, a spokesperson for Scott Morrison referred The Conversation to evidence presented by the Reserve Bank of Australia to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics at its hearing on September 28, 2016.
In the report, the Reserve Bank included a chart provided below.
The spokesperson added that:
Importantly, the chart doesn’t adjust for M&amp;A [mergers and acquisitions] activity, given NAB’s 2016 sale of Clydesdale brings down average (unadjusted) ROE [return on equity] for Australian banks quite substantially.
Let’s check the facts.
What is the return on equity for Australian banks?
Return on equity, or ROE, is a measure of profit, expressed as a percentage of shareholder equity. It shows how much profit a company generates with the funds invested by its shareholders.
The figure below (from the Reserve Bank’s Financial Stability Review) shows the return on equity of the large banks in Australia was around 15 percent in 2015.
Including the smaller Australian banks, which have about 20 percent of the market, the average return on equity is somewhat lower and more variable than for the big four only, but it is above 12 percent.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/19/return%20on%20equity.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/19/return%20on%20equity.png" width="452" height="425">
A decade ago, Australian bank returns on equity were a few points higher, and not much different from those earned by banks in other developed markets.
However, during the global financial crisis, banks in the US and Europe sustained large losses, leading to negative returns for couple of years. US banks have since recovered somewhat. European and UK banks, however, continue to perform weakly: the returns on equity of large banks in Europe are about 5 percent, compared to about 3 percent in the UK. The ROEs of large Canadian banks have, like those of large Australian banks, remained higher and more stable.
Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank notes that:
Analysts’ expectations are for Australian banks’ [return on equity] to remain on average around 12.5 percent over the next couple of years. While this is high by international standards and appears to be above banks’ cost of equity, it is lower than the returns to which Australian banks and their investors have become accustomed. Do Australia’s biggest banks have an added advantage over smaller rivals?
The treasurer also claimed that “our major banks have about a 20 to 40 basis point [funding cost] advantage because of the nature of the regulation and structure of our financial system”.
Big banks do indeed appear to be able to borrow more cheaply because their lenders expect them to receive government support during crises.
In 2010, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) used a range of approaches to estimate the value of “implicit government support” – such as the bailouts provided to some US banks during the global financial crisis – for banks and other financial institutions in the Group of 20 nations, including Australia.
While the answers from the different approaches varied, the IMF concluded that implicit government support “provides too big to fail financial institutions with a funding benefit between 10 and 50 basis points, with an average of about 20 basis points”.
Here in Australia, the Reserve Bank has concluded that “the major banks have received an unexplained funding advantage over smaller Australian banks of around 20 to 40 basis points on average since 2000”.
Macquarie University researchers James Cummings and Yilian Guo found that the funding cost advantage was about 30 basis points from 2004 to 2013, but has declined to about 16 to 17 basis points since then, in part due to prudential reforms that obliged banks to increase the share of lending contributed by shareholders.
Verdict
Scott Morrison was correct: Australian banks do “have a return on equity which is about twice, if not more than that, what you see particularly in other parts of the advanced developed economies of the world”.
Australian banks currently have higher returns on equity than banks in many other major developed markets. Those returns are about twice as high or more than the returns of the troubled European and UK banks. But returns in Canada are close to the Australian level, and the returns earned by large US banks are only a few points below the Australian level.
The treasurer is also correct to point out that the major banks enjoy a funding cost advantage on the basis of expected government support in financial crises. However, the size of the support is less clear. While IMF and RBA studies are in line with the treasurer’s range, there is some evidence that the funding cost advantage may now be somewhat lower.
Jim Minifie is Productivity Growth Program Director at the Grattan Institute. You can follow him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/jimminifie?lang=en" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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Do Australian banks have double the return on equity of banks in other developed economies?

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/78452/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Contrary to what Labor and the banks have predicted, revenue from the bank levy will likely be higher, even with deductions.
In this year’s budget papers, Treasury estimated that the bank levy will collect about A$1.5 billion in each of the next four years for the government. But this is actually a conservative estimate.
Labor has argued there will be a A$2 billion dollar hole in the bank tax revenue. This is based on the disclosure to the ASX of four of the five affected banks, on what they will likely pay government.
But the banks’ numbers assume there won’t be change to any decisions in response to the bank levy. Research shows this is highly unlikely, as bank customers have worn the cost for bank taxes like this, imposed after the global financial crisis in the UK.
In fact, if the economy keeps growing as many have predicted, and banks grow too, then the amount of revenue the government collects from the levy may even be bigger than Treasury estimates.
<h2>What we know about the bank levy</h2>
When it comes to what revenue the government can get from the bank levy, both the taxable sum, and the tax rate applied, determine what gets collected.
The budget papers specify the taxable sum as including “items such as corporate bonds, commercial paper, certificates of deposit, and Tier 2 capital instruments” but not “Tier 1 capital and deposits of individuals, businesses and other entities protected by the Financial Claims Scheme”. The bank levy will be an annualised rate of 0.06%, applicable for all licensed entity liabilities of at least A$100 billion from July 1, 2017. Small banks and foreign banks are exempt.
Although it is possible the bank levy would not be a deductible expense in calculating corporate income, precedent and statements by government indicate the levy will be deductible. Special taxes on the mining industry (including royalties and the petroleum resource rent tax), state payroll, land taxes, stamp duties and indirect taxes such as petroleum excise are all deductions in the calculation of taxable corporate income.
<h2>Errors in the assumptions about banks</h2>
Labor and banks also assume that the bank levy is a deduction in assessing corporate income. The preliminary data made public by four of the five affected banks indicates the gross revenue gain of the bank levy, less the reduction in corporate tax, will be less than the budget numbers.
That is, the net revenue reflects a 0.042% levy rather than the 0.06% rate. This also assumes shareholders will bear all of the net additional taxation.
But it also assumes the banks will not change any decisions. This is both a simplistic and an unlikely scenario.
In essence, the bank levy is a selective indirect tax on one of the inputs used by the large banks to provide financial services to their customers.
A more likely scenario is that the banks will seek to, and succeed in, passing forward most of the new indirect tax to their customers as a combination of higher interest rates and fees. From past experience, banks pass forward higher Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rates, just as they pass forward lower rates.
Given that the affected five banks account for over 80% of the market, together with the reluctance of most Australian business and household customers to switch banks, there is a high probability that most of the levy will be passed forward as higher bank interest rates and fees.
Should the banks pass forward most of the levy to their customers, the increase in bank revenue will match the increase of bank costs caused by the levy. That is, taxable corporate income will remain about the same. Then, the overall government revenue gain is given by the gross 0.06% bank levy.
<h2>The bank levy could even collect more</h2>
If the output and incomes of the five banks to pay the levy expand over the next four years, then we would expect additional revenue to be collected by government to increase over time. The budget papers, the RBA, international agencies and private sector economists all forecast economic growth. It’s unlikely that the big five banks would not also experience economic growth.
So the budget paper forecast that the bank levy revenue collection of about A$1.5 billion a year for each of the next four years, has to be on the conservative side.
The revenue estimates for the levy are forecasts or projections compiled in a world of uncertainty. So a lot is still up for debate, including not only the design of the levy but the future path of the economy in general and for the large banks in particular.
Details and assumptions underlying government estimates of the revenue from the bank levy are unclear. It would be an unusual precedent not to allow the levy to be a deduction in calculating corporate income tax, and so reducing the net revenue gain. But the implicit assumption of the bank released numbers of no decision changes by the banks is unrealistic.
If banks, as businesses in general, pass forward to customers much of an input tax, a large part of the first-round fall in corporate income, is offset by higher revenue. Government forward estimates of additional government tax revenue collected by the levy likely are on the conservative side.
John Freebairn is a Professor in Department of Economics, University of Melbourne and the author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-freebairn-90" target="_blank">here</a>.
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The government will likely get more from the bank levy than Labor or the big four think: John Freebairn

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GUEST OBSERVER
Economic indicators for Australia look benign – at least for the moment.
Recent revisions to their economic forecasts by leading financial institutions reveal that another quarter of economic contraction, following the September quarter 2016, may be on the cards. Last month’s budget is unlikely to significantly alter the outlook, nor are the developments overseas.
The RBA Shadow Board continues to advocate a hold-and-wait policy. It attaches a 56 percent probability that this is the appropriate setting.
The confidence attached to a required rate cut equals 3 percent, while the confidence in a required rate hike equals 42 percent.
Headline inflation, which increased to 2.1 percent in the March quarter, lies comfortably within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s official target range of 2-3 percent.
Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 5.7 percent in April, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, with the economy adding more than 35,000 jobs. However, this increase was due entirely to a swell in part-time employment as full-time employment contracted by nearly 12,000.
Nominal wage growth continues to remain subdued. In fact, in the March quarter real wages fell by 0.2 percent.
The Aussie dollar, relative to the US dollar, recently fell below the 74 US¢ mark, with some financial market analysts predicting a breach of the 70 US¢ threshold before the end of the year. Yields on Australian 10-year government bonds continue to slide; they now equal 2.4 percent. Domestic share prices have pared their recent gains, with the S&amp;P/ASX 200 stock index trading below 5,800.
Commodity export prices dropped a considerable 6.8 percent in May; they are now more than 10% below their January peaks. Even though mining investment increased slightly for the first time in nearly three years, it is expected to fall 22 percent in the year ahead, based on ABS surveys. Non-mining firm investment is expected to increase by 3.7 percent in the same period.
Internationally, there exists no stand-out news item to help guide policy. Economic statistics from Europe and the US look favourable but geostrategic conflicts, uncertain elections and unpredictable US policy could change this swiftly. China is unlikely to experience another round of double-digit growth rates. On the contrary, there remains the possibility that the debt overhang and structural adjustment will further slow the economy.
Consumer and business confidence remain modest. Other measures of economic activity such as capacity utilization, retail sales and inventory behavior remain tightly range-bound.
The Shadow Board’s policy preferences have barely nudged since last month. It is 56 percent confident that keeping interest rates on hold is the appropriate policy, one percentage point down from May.
It attaches an unchanged probability of 3 percent that a rate cut is appropriate and a 42 percent probability (40 percent in May) that a rate rise, to 1.75 percent or higher, is appropriate.
The probabilities at longer horizons are as follows: 6 months out, the estimated probability that the cash rate should remain at 1.50 percent equals 23 percent, unchanged from the previous round.
The estimated need for an interest rate decrease is up two percentage points, from 4 percent to 6 percent, while the probability attached to a required increase equals 71 percent (73 percent in May).
A year out, the Shadow Board members’ confidence that the cash rate should be held steady equals 14 percent (17 percent in the previous month), while the confidence in a required cash rate decrease edged up from 4 percent to 7 percent and in a required cash rate increase remained unchanged at 79 percent.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-06%20at%209.46.55%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-06%20at%209.46.55%20AM.png" alt="">
More information from the CAMA RBA Shadow Board can be found <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/rba-shadow-board" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Hold and wait best policy: RBA Shadow Board

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Sydney's property boom is now in its fifth year - an unusually long period with unusually high price growth.
But the May auction results suggest there's been a light tap on the breaks.
The slightly lower Saturday auction success has contributed to the current thinking that we've perhaps seen the peak. 
But which peak?
Last weekend Ryde recorded the strongest clearance rate of 90 percent from 46 auctions, but Blacktown, with half the volume, secured just 55 percent.
The overall Sydney figure was 76 percent.
There's so many markets across Sydney each having their own telling characteristics.
As a buyer or seller in the market, it is important to take note of the suburban, citywide and national trends, as they all contribute to the commentary which shapes sale outcomes.
Despite it being at the pricier end of activity, auction trends are a portent of the wider property market direction.
There are indicators that cover the private treaty market.
Some of these have yet to suggest any shift in sentiment, but these to tend to lag auction momentum so should emerge over coming months.
Days on market for Sydney private treaty sales sits at a speedy 28 days, the nation's fastest market, CoreLogic advise. The buying discount off the vendor asking price is just four percent.
Stock on market is up six percent suggesting a bumper winter selection for buyers.
The latest CoreLogic figures show supply of established housing stock for sale is at the highest level for this time of year since 2012.
Estate agent John McGrath senses the booming market has turned.
"Demand softens because prices get to such a high point after a long period of growth that buyers start giving up and exiting the market."
Would-be upgrader buyers choose to stay put and renovate or extend because they feel trading up is just too difficult.
"Whether this new data from CoreLogic indicates a turn of the cycle or a blip, we don’t yet know," McGrath said.
But his feeling is that Sydney is at, or around, its peak for the cycle.
"We’re certainly overdue for a period of price consolidation, which I continue to believe is a healthy sign for the market.
"Vendors are still in the driver’s seat but this won’t last forever, especially if demand is on the way down."
Along with the auction and private treaty market, there is another major segment, separate but also infectious, which is off the plan apartment offerings.
One index I like is the number of residential cranes on the Sydney skyline. According to the latest count, there are 34 more over the past six months. The 292 cranes total account for 53 percent of all Australian residential cranes, the RLB Crane Index indicated. 
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May auction results suggest Sydney's property boom may be slowing

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SPONSORED POST
If the wealth of lifestyle TV shows proves one thing, it’s that good presentation means extra dollars when it comes time to sell or rent your investment property.
Professional cleaning is one of the cheapest and easiest improvements you can make and it delivers a big bang for your buck when you want to make a good market impression, according to James’ Home Services, one of Australia’s leading residential cleaning companies. 
CEO Mike Dowling said: “When you are coming up to finalise a sale, you are faced with the everything from legal issues to building inspections. There’s no doubt cleaning is one of the easiest jobs you can offload to the professionals.
“But professional cleaning offers much bigger benefits for property owners that just saving them time.
“Most buyers look for a property they can move into straight away and pristine presentation gives them confidence that the rest of the property is in good repair.
“Tenants too will often pay a premium for spotless presentation. If you’re in a competitive market, they will choose clean, fresh premises over similar accommodation that isn’t as well presented. It also means you are more likely to attract the best tenants.” 
Mr Dowling said keeping on top of maintenance was essential for happy tenants and an important consideration when it came to insurance too, as insurers often refused to pay claims if poor maintenance was thought to be a contributor.
“Overflowing gutters, for example, can lead to roof leaks, poor cleaning can shorten the life of expensive appliances like air conditioners and ovens, dirty exhaust fans can encourage moisture build up and mould, and a green pool is a real turnoff, so it’s essential to take care of these things regularly,” he said.
“Professional cleaners have the skill and equipment to do the work to a better standard and in a fraction of the time than property owners can do themselves - so it makes good business sense.” 
When you consider that total office investment sales volumes for 2015/16 were $15.91 billion and 500,000 homes change hands each year in Australia, that is a lot of homes and offices that need to be spruced prior to sale.
Fortunately for property buyers and sellers, arranging end of lease and pre-sale cleans has never been easier.
“I’ve been in the cleaning industry for almost a quarter of century and know that I have some of the most skilled people in the industry out there in the field,” said Mr Dowling, who purchased James’ Home Services in October 2015.
“Most professional cleaning services will back their work. Our Gold Medal Service Guarantee is one of the best because we ensure you can speak to a real person who can identify your needs and the service you require, organise a free quote at a time that best suits you and we turn up when we say we will every time. We also offer a 7 Day workmanship guarantee so if you’re not satisfied, we will come and fix for no extra cost.
“James’ Home Services is dedicated to delivering results that are step above the rest and are determined to deliver professional results in every aspect of our business.”
Visit <a href="https://www.jameshomeservices.com.au" target="_blank">www.jameshomeservices.com.au</a> to learn more about the services offered and to book either a one- off or regular visit from one of the James’ Home Services franchisees. 
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Cleaning a settlement issue solved with James' Home Services

South East Queensland’s apartment market is entering a new phase defined by rising prices, constrained affordability, and mounting pressure on the construction pipeline, according to RPM Group’s latest SEQ Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report.

The May 2026 report highlights a widening divide between what buyers can afford and what developers can viably deliver, with detached house prices continuing to push more buyers toward apartments across Brisbane, the Gold Coast, and the Sunshine Coast.

RPM says Brisbane’s median house price has reached around $1.5 million, accelerating the shift toward higher-density housing as buyers are increasingly priced out of the detached market.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135094 project_image_fid=356540]

Median unit prices rose across all three major SEQ markets in the March quarter. Brisbane City recorded the strongest annual growth, with median unit prices climbing 21 per cent to $862,000, while the Gold Coast reached the highest overall median at $950,000, up 17 per cent year-on-year. The Sunshine Coast followed at $870,000, representing annual growth of nine per cent.

RPM noted the affordability gap between houses and units remains significant, with detached homes commanding premiums of 67 per cent in Brisbane and 68 per cent on the Gold Coast relative to apartments.

The report suggests this price disparity is increasingly consolidating buyer demand within the apartment market, particularly among downsizers and owner-occupiers.

“Demand is real. Supply is moving. But they’re operating on different timelines and the gap between what’s being built and what buyers can afford is the defining tension in this market right now,” RPM Queensland and NSW Managing Directors Peter Neale and Clinton Trezise said in the report.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150787 project_image_fid=366230]

While approvals and commencements are strengthening, RPM argues the delivery pipeline remains constrained by construction costs, labour shortages, and extended build timelines.

Apartment approvals across Queensland increased 86 per cent over the year to February 2026, reaching 12,682 approvals, the highest level recorded since 2016. Brisbane overtook the Gold Coast as the state’s most active apartment approval market, with nearly 5,000 apartments approved over the past 12 months.

Unit commencements also strengthened considerably, rising 48 per cent year-on-year to 5,453 commencements in the December 2025 quarter, the highest level since 2018.

However, RPM’s research found apartment delivery timeframes have expanded sharply compared to the previous cycle. Projects are now averaging around 30 months from approval to completion, compared to roughly 20 months a decade ago.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=143932 project_image_fid=367515]

The number of units under construction has climbed to approximately 31,530 dwellings, nearing the previous 2016 peak, though projects are remaining in the pipeline for considerably longer.

Construction costs continue to weigh heavily on feasibility. RPM found the average apartment construction cost in Greater Brisbane reached $630,000 per dwelling in 2025, exceeding both Sydney and Melbourne. Coastal Queensland markets, including the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, were even higher at an average of $817,418 per apartment due to the prevalence of larger premium product.

The report also points to increasing pressure from Olympic-related infrastructure spending ahead of Brisbane 2032, with labour competition expected to intensify over the next several years.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370960]

ANZ Associate Director of Property Daniel Gradwell said the underlying demand drivers across South East Queensland remain strong, supported by interstate migration, downsizers, and population growth.

“The challenge is bringing enough supply to market to meet that demand, and nothing on the horizon makes that straightforward,” Gradwell said.

RPM’s analysis found the affordability challenge is becoming more pronounced in the new apartment market itself, with only three per cent of surveyed new apartments priced below $1 million.

Instead, the market is increasingly concentrated in higher price brackets, with the most common new apartment price band across SEQ sitting between $1.5 million and $1.75 million. Around half of all new apartment stock surveyed is priced below $2 million.

The report suggests developers are not necessarily avoiding lower price points by choice, but because current construction economics make delivering affordable apartments increasingly difficult at scale.

Rental conditions also remain tight across the region. Median rents for one-bedroom apartments rose 12 per cent in Brisbane over the past year to $580 per week, while Gold Coast one-bedroom rents increased nine per cent to $630.

Despite rising rents, RPM noted bond lodgements have generally trended downward over the past five years, indicating more apartments are being absorbed by owner-occupiers rather than retained as investor-held rental stock.

Looking ahead, RPM expects projects targeting the mid-market owner-occupier segment between $1.25 million and $2 million to remain the most viable part of the market, while premium projects in highly constrained coastal or riverfront locations continue to attract demand.

“Construction costs are rewriting the feasibility rulebook across Greater Brisbane, and with little relief in sight, only projects in the right price band, right location, and with presales secured early will make it through,” the report concludes.

Joel Robinson

SEQ apartment demand outpacing affordable supply as construction timelines stretch: RPM

Camberwell Junction has long been the epicentre of amenity in Melbourne’s Boroondara region.

For nearly a century, it has drawn both locals and visitors, anchored by the Camberwell Sunday Market, which first operated in 1929 and quickly became a fixture of the suburb’s identity. Over time, the Junction evolved into one of Melbourne’s most established retail and lifestyle precincts, now comprising more than 400 stores and over 300 commercial businesses.

Despite that depth of amenity, one thing has remained notably limited: the supply of new apartments.

In a suburb defined by its heritage streetscapes and tightly held residential stock, new development opportunities have been scarce, particularly within the core of the Junction itself. That lack of supply has left a gap in the market for larger, design-led apartments suited to downsizers and owner-occupiers wanting to remain in the area.

Boutique developer Above Zero identified that gap when it secured a prime site on Burke Road, in the heart of Camberwell Junction.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4896 project_image_fid=368543]

The site has a long planning history. Various proposals have been put forward over more than a decade, many of which were knocked back by the City of Boroondara, with initial applications dating back to 2015. Above Zero acquired the site in 2022 and returned with a revised scheme, refining both the building’s height and its ground-level interface to better align with Council expectations.

That process has culminated in approval for Camberwell House.

The Cera Stribley-designed development will deliver 57 residences on a 1,950 sqm site within the Camberwell Activity Centre, placing it directly within one of Melbourne’s most established retail and transport hubs.

It is expected to be one of the only new apartment developments to launch in the Junction in recent years, reinforcing the rarity of new supply in the precinct. Currently, there are just a handful of projects on the market in Camberwell, underscoring the significance of a development of this scale and positioning.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4896 project_image_fid=368544]

Camberwell House has been conceived with a clear focus on larger-format apartments. The project will offer a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom residences, alongside a limited number of penthouses, targeting owner-occupiers seeking scale rather than volume-driven product.

The building’s vertical presence will also set it apart.

Positioned on Burke Road, the development is set to become one of the taller buildings in its immediate context, allowing for elevated outlooks across Melbourne’s CBD skyline and toward the Dandenong Ranges. In a precinct characterised by lower-scale built form, that height provides a point of differentiation, particularly for buyers seeking outlook and natural light.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4896 project_image_fid=368568]

Architecture has been led by Cera Stribley, with interiors by GOLDEN and landscape design by Florian Wild. The design approach centres on material consistency and restraint, with residences oriented to maximise light, ventilation and connection to outdoor spaces.

Full-height glazing and generous terraces form a key part of that strategy, allowing apartments to extend beyond their internal footprint and engage with the surrounding environment.

Beyond the private residences, a significant component of the project is its amenity offering.

Above Zero has positioned Camberwell House as a “complete living environment”, incorporating a full floor dedicated to resident facilities. At the centre of that is a wellness zone, including a 12.5-metre lap pool, spa, sauna and treatment spaces, alongside a gym and recovery-focused amenities.

This level of amenity is more commonly associated with inner-city developments, rather than established middle-ring suburbs like Camberwell.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4896 project_image_fid=368588]

Additional shared spaces include a private library lounge, dining and entertaining areas, and an indoor golf simulator. A self-contained guest suite has also been incorporated, allowing residents to accommodate visiting family or friends without impacting their primary living space.

The inclusion of these facilities reflects a broader shift in buyer expectations.

As more downsizers look to transition from larger family homes into apartments, there is increasing demand for developments that offer not just a residence, but a lifestyle. That includes access to wellness, social and entertaining spaces within the building itself, reducing the reliance on external amenity while still maintaining proximity to established precincts.

Camberwell House is positioned to benefit from both.

Its location places it within immediate walking distance of Camberwell Junction’s retail and dining offering, as well as public transport connections, including tram and train services. That combination of internal amenity and external convenience is central to its appeal.

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Jellis Craig Projects Director Stephen Bowtell is handling sales for the project and says Camberwell House offers a rare entry point into one of Melbourne’s most tightly held markets.

“Buyers are recognising that Camberwell House offers something they simply haven’t seen before in Boroondara,”&nbsp;Bowtell&nbsp;says.

“It combines a level of resident amenity and service typically associated with Melbourne’s premium inner-city developments, while being positioned right in the heart of Camberwell Junction.

“The response to the concierge offering has been particularly strong. Buyers appreciate not only the convenience, but also the sense of security and peace of mind that comes from having a dedicated presence in the building every day.

“When you combine that with the wellness facilities, the exceptional arrival experience, and panoramic views across both the CBD skyline and the Dandenong Ranges, it creates a lifestyle proposition that is genuinely unique within the local market.”
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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4896]

Above Zero launches Camberwell House in undersupplied Camberwell Junction precinct

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/consolidated-properties">Consolidated Properties Group</a> (CPG) is approaching the launch of its latest Brisbane riverfront development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, on the dress circle Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

VIP buyers are now being engaged, with a full public sales launch coming later this year.

Positioned as the final opportunity to secure a new absolute riverfront residence on the East bank of Newstead, Teneriffe or New Farm, Castile at 47 Skyring Terrace has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> as a timeless addition to the Brisbane skyline.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=371113]

The name Castile draws on themes of permanence, sophistication and legacy, reflecting a broader vision centred on enduring architecture and timelessness in the rarest of riverfront positions.&nbsp;

CPG Chairman and CEO Don O’Rorke said the project had been envisioned as a future Brisbane icon.&nbsp;

“With 47 metres of direct river frontage and never to be built out views, 47 Skyring Terrace is the definitive address on the Brisbane River,” O’Rorke said.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=371114]

“Rather than following trend-based apartment design, Castile draws inspiration from Brisbane’s great heritage buildings, reinterpreting classical architecture into a contemporary riverfront landmark designed to stand proudly for the next 100 years,” he said.&nbsp;

The approved development will comprise 227 apartments across a 25-storey tower alongside a boutique six-storey riverfront building of just 12 residences.&nbsp;

Construction is scheduled to commence in September 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150489]

CPG unveils Castile Newstead ahead of upcoming sales launch

Australia’s online shopping habits have shifted dramatically over the last decade. As eCommerce volumes surged, so too did the frustrations that came with traditional parcel delivery: missed deliveries, long Post Office queues, parcel theft and the challenge of being home during business hours.

Australia Post’s Parcel Lockers emerged as one of the more practical responses to that changing consumer behaviour.

What started as a relatively niche delivery option has evolved into a nationwide network of more than 1,400 self-service Parcel Lockers positioned at train stations, shopping centres, supermarkets and Post Offices across the country. The system allows Australians to send, collect and return parcels 24 hours a day, fundamentally changing how many people interact with deliveries.

The appeal is relatively straightforward: flexibility.

Instead of waiting at home for a delivery driver or rushing to a Post Office before closing time, users can direct eligible parcels to a Parcel Locker location of their choice. Once the parcel arrives, Australia Post sends a notification with a collection code or QR access through the AusPost app, allowing customers to retrieve their package at any time within the collection window.

For apartment residents in particular, the system has become increasingly valuable.

Higher-density living has created logistical challenges around deliveries, especially in buildings without concierge services or secure parcel rooms. Missed deliveries are common, while parcel theft has become an increasing concern as online shopping volumes continue to rise.

Australia Post itself has repeatedly highlighted the growing issue of “porch pirates” during peak shopping periods, encouraging customers to use Parcel Lockers as a safer alternative to unattended home deliveries.

That security aspect is one of the key reasons the Australia Post Parcel Locker network has grown so rapidly.

Parcel Lockers are positioned as secure, monitored collection points that reduce the risk of theft while also improving delivery efficiency for Australia Post. Instead of multiple redelivery attempts, parcels can be consolidated into a single secure destination.

The Parcel Lockers themselves are free to use through a MyPost account and support a range of parcel sizes up to 16 kilograms and dimensions of approximately 35 x 44 x 61 centimetres.

Beyond receiving parcels, the system has increasingly become integrated into the broader eCommerce ecosystem.

Customers can now use Parcel Lockers to return online purchases, while retailers have embraced the model as a way to improve delivery success rates and reduce friction in the shopping process. Australia Post has actively expanded partnerships with major retailers and promoted Parcel Lockers as part of a broader out-of-home strategy.

The timing of that expansion aligns with broader changes in Australian shopping behaviour.

The acceleration of online retail during and after the pandemic placed enormous pressure on delivery infrastructure. Parcel volumes reached record highs, particularly during Black Friday and Christmas periods, with Australia Post delivering more than 100 million parcels during peak festive seasons.

That growth forced logistics providers to rethink the “last mile” of delivery, widely regarded as the most expensive and operationally difficult stage of the process.

Parcel Locker systems have increasingly been viewed as part of the long-term solution.

The concept itself is not unique to Australia. Parcel Locker networks have become common globally, particularly across Europe and Asia, where dense urban environments and apartment living create similar logistical challenges. But Australia’s geography and suburban sprawl made adoption slower initially.

Now, however, the convenience factor is driving mainstream usage.

For commuters, Parcel Lockers near train stations allow parcels to be collected on the way home from work. For apartment dwellers, they remove the uncertainty around access and missed deliveries.

The rise of the AusPost app has also streamlined the experience, centralising notifications, tracking and Parcel Locker access into a single platform. Australia Post has increasingly pushed customers toward app-based delivery management, partly as a way to combat phishing scams and fake delivery notifications, which have become more sophisticated in recent years.

The Parcel Locker model is also beginning to influence property development itself.

Parcel management has become a growing consideration in apartment building design, particularly as online shopping becomes embedded in everyday life. Many new residential developments are now incorporating dedicated parcel rooms or Parcel Locker systems into foyers and communal spaces.

For developers, parcel management is increasingly viewed as part of the broader resident amenity offering, alongside gyms, wellness spaces and communal work areas.

That reflects a wider evolution in how residential buildings are designed.

Apartment buyers are placing greater emphasis on convenience, security and operational functionality, particularly in higher-density urban environments. Parcel delivery, once considered a minor operational detail, has become an increasingly important part of that equation.

Australia Post’s Parcel Locker network sits at the centre of that behavioural shift.

What began as a simple alternative delivery option has evolved into a key piece of infrastructure supporting Australia’s growing eCommerce economy and changing urban lifestyles.

And as online shopping continues to expand, the role of Parcel Lockers is likely to become even more embedded in how Australians live, shop and receive goods.

How Australia Post Parcel Lockers changed parcel delivery convenience in Australia

Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Jonathan Chancellor

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