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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/81902/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
In Sydney and Melbourne, the squeeze is on. Population is booming; house prices are still rising; roads and trains are congested.
Australian governments generally have ignored the benefits of relating metropolitan and regional planning.
However, some state governments are now investigating more integrated sectoral and spatial planning strategies, initially through shifting public sector jobs to regional centres. 
In particular, improved regional rail connections do work. Already rail investments have brought Ballarat, Geelong and other regional centres closer in travel time to Melbourne than many outer suburbs, and this trend will continue. 
Sydney has similar opportunities with regional rail connections, but has not yet exercised them. Rail services to and from Gosford, Newcastle and Wollongong have improved little over recent decades. 
Rail bypasses clogged arteries
For decades, policymakers’ preferred solution to congestion has been adding and widening freeways. But promises of faster travel times and freer movement have been illusory. New roads and freeway lanes induce more traffic and will provide short-lived solutions in our biggest cities.
These cities are the main drivers of Australia’s national economy, attracting advanced business service professionals and knowledge providers. 
Access to high-value jobs, transport arteries that function well, and better-managed population growth will become critically important to urban economies as these cities move towards populations of 8 million people. 
In Sydney and Melbourne, critics are claiming that major new road projects such as WestConnex and the Western Distributor will increase central city traffic congestion, particularly for work-related journeys. 
Victoria proves regional rail works
Contrast that with the success of regional rail development. Victoria has invested several billion dollars in a series of projects. These have raised maximum regional train speeds to provincial cities to 160kph, increased reliability, provided new and much faster trains and transformed frequency.
The 119km peak-hour trip from Ballarat to Melbourne before these investments took two hours, with four trains a day on offer. Today 22 daily trains operate in each direction between Melbourne and Ballarat. Boarding the 4.33pm from Southern Cross delivers passengers to Ballarat 65 minutes later. 
From Geelong, the transformation has been even greater. The recently completed Regional Rail Link runs 55 daily trains each way. The project was the first to be approved by Infrastructure Australia, backed by A$3.8 billion in state and Commonwealth funding.
Patronage boom calls for more work
These upgrades, however, have become victims of their own success. Some lines have recorded a 300% increase in patronage. Similar increases are projected for the next decade. 
Remarkably, within two years of opening, patronage growth has already reached capacity on the inner part of the Regional Rail Link (which segregates metropolitan from country trains for travel to and from central Melbourne). There is little or no capacity for extra trains to be run in peak times. 
Trains are becoming ever more crowded. Long-distance commuters have valued their ability to work, read or sleep on these trains, especially during their homeward journeys. They must now compete for seats with others from rapidly expanding western suburbs, which are yet to gain their own suburban train services. 
A short-term fix would create longer trains of eight carriages instead of six. A medium-term fix would electrify and provide separate services to the part of the Geelong line that serves the new dormitory suburbs. 
These changes need to be complemented by more frequent and better co-ordinated feeder bus services to stations. In addition, easily accessed large commuter carparks need to be built on vacant land on the Melbourne side of the major regional centres.
In the longer term, the answer lies in providing more multiple tracks to fully segregate suburban and regional trains in suburban areas. Providing robust double-line railways in each corridor will prevent the cascade effect that occurs when trains delay each other on single lines. 
The completion of level-crossing removals will also allow higher operating speeds and safer operations. Trains will be able to move progressively to maximum speeds of 200kph where feasible rather than 160kph. 
Regional cities must avoid past mistakes
These rail investments will further promote population growth in regional cities. Already, regionally developed services, more affordable housing stock and less frantic lifestyles are acting as attractors.
It is essential to integrate the planning of major regional transport projects with spatial planning to avoid the undesirable results of fragmented policy. 
Some regional centres are repeating the worst mistakes of metropolitan low-density urban sprawl by expanding on greenfield sites far from town centres. Modelling of Victorian regional towns has shown that they contain in-fill opportunities to at least double existing populations and provide a range of affordable housing options. 
To maintain liveability for expected high population growth, heavy rail investment is vital. Carefully targeted regional rail investment can shrink distance, provide access to more jobs and better lifestyles, and contribute to wider housing choices. 
This investment is a critical requirement for continued prosperity in Australia’s largest urban centres.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michael-buxton-1381" target="_blank">Michael Buxton</a> is professor of Environment and Planning, RMIT University and author for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

This is how regional rail can help ease our big cities’ commuter crush

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GUEST OBSERVER
The RBA’s updated forecasts are consistent with policy on hold over the rest of 2017.
The Bank expects growth to lift over the next few years to an above-trend pace.
And while core inflation is forecast to be close to 2% in H2 2017 (a touch under on the Bank’s chart), the RBA sees headline inflation tracking in their 2-3% target band.
Optimism around the recent strength in employment growth is tempered by a “subdued” outlook for wages growth.
As such, we think that the Bank retains a neutral bias in today’s Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP).
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The Bank has downwardly revised their near term GDP forecasts due to the softer than expected QI which was negatively impacted by weather.
Looking at the Bank’s through the year forecasts implies that the pace of growth picks up to 2% by year end and 23⁄4% by Q2 2018.
Positive contributions to come from LNG production, consumption, infrastructure spend and a lift in non-mining investment.
The RBA notes that the stronger AUD has had a “modest dampening” effect on the growth forecasts.
In summary, the Australian economy would be deemed to be in good shape if the RBA’s growth outcomes can be achieved.
The forecasts look reasonable to us but the risks are to the downside.
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Core inflation forecasts haven’t budged, but the expected trajectory for headline inflation has inched higher due to the lift in utilities prices.
There is nothing in the inflation forecasts to suggest that policy will be tightened over the next year.
We think that at the very least the RBA would need to upgrade its core inflation forecast to even entertain the idea of a rate rise.
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We note the change in language from the RBA on the labour market that signals the Bank is clearly happy with developments.
The RBA states that leading indicators of the labour market point to, “solid employment growth” over H2 2017.
Here the emphasis is on solid and suggests that the RBA considers the recent strength in the labour market as genuine and that it will continue over the year.
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As a result, some mild downward pressure is expected to be applied to the unemployment rate.
On wages, the RBA devoted “Box C” to a discussion on the 2017/18 minimum wage decision.
The upshot is that it should contribute 0.2ppts to growth relative to its contribution in 2016/17.
We have a similar view to the RBA on the outlook for wages growth.
Namely that it has reached a bottom and should pick up gradually from here.
That said, the process will be slow because there is still plenty of slack in the labour market.
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As a result, we think that the RBA’s outlook for wages growth is more plausible than the optimistic wages forecasts underpinning the 2017/18 Federal Budget.
In summary, it looks like more of the same from a monetary policy perspective over 2017.
Rates will stay on hold until wages growth and core inflation are on a sustained upward trend.
That is some way off and in our view that means that policy is likely to be on hold until late 2018.
Gareth Aird is a senior economist at Commonwealth Bank and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/gareth-aird/14/790/905">here</a>.
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RBA on hold over rest of 2017: Gareth Aird

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/80952/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Rising sea levels are widely recognised as a threat to coastal communities worldwide. In Australia, the Climate Council estimates that at least A$226 billion of assets and infrastructure will be exposed to inundation if sea levels rise by 1.1 metres. Another report recommended that global mean sea level rise of up to 2.7 metres this century should be considered in planning processes.
The Queensland state government has commissioned the QCoast2100 program. This program aims to help with the development of coastal climate adaptation plans for Queensland communities exposed to sea-level rise. 
Although the largest population centres in Queensland are in the state’s southeast, several of the most populous regional centres in Australia are located along the Great Barrier Reef coastline between Gladstone and Cape York. These include Townsville, Cairns, Gladstone, Mackay and Port Douglas.
A major task in developing coastal adaptation plans under the QCoast2100 program is to model inundation from a range of scenarios for sea-level rises and assess how assets will be inundated in the future. However, another threat is on the horizon.
How urban centres are protected
Urban centres along the reef’s coastline, which forms the majority of the Queensland coast, are protected from major ocean storms by natural deposits of coastal sediments. These include dunes and associated vegetation such as coastal forests, wetlands and mangrove systems. 
These natural features continue to exist largely because the Great Barrier Reef’s outer reefs dampen incoming ocean waves. Although exposed to the occasional cyclone – which can lead to short-term erosion at specific locations – much of the coastal zone inside the reef is slowly growing out into the sea. 
This increasing buffer zone can form a natural barrier to coastal recession.
A recently released report estimated the total economic, social and icon asset value of the Great Barrier Reef at A$56 billion. By design, this report did not include many of the ecosystem services the reef provides. One of these is its role in reducing the energy of waves that impact the coastline behind the reef.
However, an earlier assessment of the total economic value of ecosystem services delivered by the reef estimated the present coastal protection benefit is worth at least A$10 billion. 
Despite the inherent uncertainties in such assessments, it is clear the reef acts to reduce incoming wave energy and its impacts on cities and towns along much of the Queensland coastline. The total economic value of these benefits is in the billions of dollars.
What role is bleaching playing?
The Great Barrier Reef’s ability to keep protecting the Queensland shoreline, and communities living along it, depends upon the ability of individual reefs in the system to grow vertically to “keep up” with rising sea level.
The jury is still out on whether the outer reefs will be able to keep up with predicted rises. This is an active area of research.
However, it is clear reefs that are extensively affected by coral bleaching will struggle to maintain the essential processes required for productive reef-building. Many reefs are now experiencing net erosion. 
Predictions of ocean warming suggest that bleaching events will become even more common in coming decades. Increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide are also making the oceans more acidic, which makes it more difficult for organisms such as corals to maintain their skeletons, which are made of calcium carbonate. This mineral dissolves more rapidly with increasing acidification, reducing the reef’s capacity to recover from storm damage and coral bleaching.
Therefore, as bleaching events and acidification continue, the outer reefs that protect the Queensland coast from ocean waves will increasingly struggle to perform this function. 
In turn, over time the Queensland coast will potentially suffer from more coastal erosion, which may increase the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure. This effect, combined with rising sea levels leading to more coastal inundation events, multiples the risks to coastal settlements and infrastructure.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mark-gibbs-199704" target="_blank">Mark Gibbs</a> is Director, Knowledge to Innovation; Chair, Green Cross Australia, Queensland University of Technology and author for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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As a coastal defence, the Great Barrier Reef’s value to communities goes way beyond tourism

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/81560/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Public housing reform is again agitating the inner suburbs, just as it did four decades ago when citizen action and courageous academic research brought the tower-block model crashing down. 
Michael Jones exposed it as cost-ineffective and socially destructive, but he also discovered a dirty little secret about the Victorian Housing Commission: the system paid for itself because only the “deserving” working class were admitted.
Forty years on, the physical legacy of that heroic era of tower blocks and walk-up flats is shabby and in need of renewal. 
Whereas the Victorian housing program was designed to be self-funding from public rents, these days public housing is the only viable option for an expanding population of older residents, newly settled migrant families, sole parents, people with disabilities and those experiencing chronic physical and mental ill-health, most of whom are on pensions.
But there are new groups in need of social housing: people trapped in the gig economy, hawking their ABNs as drivers, disability carers, child-carers, removalists, tradespeople, casual office workers of all kinds, hospitality workers. They are the growing army of the precariat who may even have a couple of university degrees but who cannot find job security. 
They cannot see, even when they earn good money, a predictable path to home ownership while rents and insecurity rise all around them.
Then there are essential city workers who have a secure job but who need to live near their work. In Melbourne, city hospital nurses should not be commuting from Craigieburn and Frankston; teachers should be able to live near their school; service workers of all kinds should not be travelling for hours to do their jobs. 
All big cities have to deal with this as gentrification and property speculation squeeze the lower-income earners out of the inner city.
Class prejudice: a case study in Flemington
The immediate controversy is in the inner Melbourne suburb of Flemington. Here, the walk-up flats are to be replaced with apartment blocks of varying heights, with one to match the high rises that have to remain. 
The town plan will be denser, with street frontages for apartment buildings, nearby parking and landscaped gardens. 
The Kensington estate overlooking J.J. Holland Park has already had such a makeover. The new public and private buildings are indistinguishable from each other, with gardens cascading down the embankment.
Local residents have several objections to the Flemington proposals. The estate will be too dense and too tall for the surrounding suburb, and its redevelopment has to be funded by selling part of the land to private developers for a mix of social, affordable and shared equity housing. The public component will increase by 10%. 
The residents are supportive of public housing and want more, but more would have to be on the existing footprint, which will increase the population density that they deplore. More importantly, the inhabitants will remain sequestered.
Another objection is that the development is intended to break up the old public estate into a mixed community and that research can be foundthat engineered social mixing doesn’t “work”. 
Certainly, many inner Melbourne families go to extraordinary financial and geographic lengths to ensure their children do not go to school with children from “the flats”. 
The primary school at the edge of the Flemington estate was built for 1,000 and has fewer than 100 students, while all the surrounding schools are bursting at the seams. The same applies in the inner suburbs Carlton and Fitzroy. 
The arguments are more sophisticated — that social mixing is “gentrification by stealth” — but the result remains that public tenants must inhabit a world apart.
But research can also be found that social mixing is working all around us every day. It’s working in streets sprinkled with infill housing, small developments, mixed developments, public apartments in private developments. It already works in Flemington away from the flats and in Kensington, where the two local schools are flourishing. 
Above all there is abundant research to show that concentrating people into public housing estates breeds social exclusion and that’s bad for all of us.
A city needs social and economic diversity to function, but it doesn’t need enclaves and ghettos. And a creative, knowledge city of the future will need to remain affordable for young creatives, just as it needs a mix of people to make it work. 
All great cities are grappling with this downside of gentrification, and public and affordable social housing has to be part of the solution. 
London has teachers, police, nurses and young doctors in council housing. Yet Paris has got it horribly wrong, with its banlieues full of great architecture and human misery that can only make itself heard by burning cars and detonating bombs.
Solutions must embrace diversity
Solutions will be various. They will need imaginative and bold leadership from governments and well-regulated partnerships with the private sector to raise the funds. 
The walk-ups and sequestered public estates of Melbourne have passed their use-by date both physically and socially. 
With land prices so high, the private sector will have to step up and contribute, and its pleas that it’s uneconomic regulated away. In Canberra, public housing is sprinkled throughout the city. Other countries, such as Germany and Japan, can do it and so can we.
But to do all this we also need a new civility in our inner suburbs, a civility that endorses necessary change for the common good above private interests. And we will know that we are succeeding when all our schools represent the diversity that is modern Australia.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/janet-mccalman-447" target="_blank">Janet McCalman</a> is Professor of Population Health, University of Melbourne.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/deborah-warr-143875" rel="author">Deborah Warr</a> is Associate Professor, Honorary Principal Fellow, University of Melbourne.
Both are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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Class divide defies social mixing and keeps public housing stigma alive

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/81823/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
We often think of the internet as a levelling, democratising technology – one that extends access to knowledge, education, cultural resources and markets. 
But the net also reflects the social and economic divides we find offline.
Released this week, the second report of the Australian Digital Inclusion Index (ADII) reports on data covering four years of local online participation across three dimensions: online access, digital ability and affordability. Together, the three dimensions produce a digital inclusion score. 
Since 2014, when data was first collected, Australia’s overall digital inclusion score has improved by 3.8 points, from 52.7 to 56.5. In 2016–2017 alone, Australia’s score rose by 2.0 points, from 54.5 to 56.5. 
But there is still a “digital divide” between richer and poorer Australians. In 2017, people in our lowest income households (less than A$35,000 per year) have a digital inclusion score of 41.1, which is 27 points lower than those in the highest income households (above A$150,000) at 68.1. 
When the three dimensions are considered separately, the measures of access and digital ability show consistent improvement from 2014 to 2017. However, the affordability measure has registered a decline since the 2014 national baseline (despite a slight bump in the past 12 months).
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Online access and digital ability have increased since 2014, but affordability has dropped. <a class="source" href="https://digitalinclusionindex.org.au/" target="_blank">Australian Digital Inclusion Index 2017</a>, Author provided
<h2>The cost of being connected</h2>
Affordability is a key dimension of digital inclusion. 
Internet connectivity is important for accessing a wide range of education, government, health and business services. A decline in internet affordability means Australians on fixed or low incomes risk missing out on the benefits of digital technologies, and falling further behind more connected Australians.
The ADII shows that the cost of data — for both fixed and mobile internet — has declined over 2014-2017. These findings are in line with the ACCC’s ongoing monitoring of prices for telecommunications services, which indicate an average decline in real terms of 3.1% since 2006.
However, when we measure affordability, we are not only looking at the cost of data; we are also interested in what proportion of household income is being dedicated to this service. 
The affordability problem with the internet is different from other key household services where there are price pressures, such as electricity and water. The residential consumption of energy has grown very slowly over the last decade, but prices have increased sharply. 
With the internet, while we are now getting more data for our dollar, our demand for data has dramatically increased. 
A recent report from the Commonwealth Bureau of Communications and Arts Research (BCAR) tracks the affordability of phone and internet use since 2006.
The BCAR report finds that, overall, phone and internet affordability has improved since 2006. However, their data also shows that almost all the gains occurred before 2013, and that, since then, affordability has declined or flat-lined. Further, BCAR’s data suggests that the lowest income households in Australia are now spending almost 10% of their incomes on internet and communications services. In contrast, middle income households are spending around 4% of their disposable income on these services, and for wealthier households, the figure is less than 2%.
<h2>Increasing reliance on mobile</h2>
Some recent and far-reaching changes in our use of technology are evident here: the extent to which the internet has become an integral part of everyday life, the fact that we are spending more time online, and we are doing an increasing range of activities online. In many households, we are also connecting with more devices. 
However, the problem of affordability also reflects another recent development that the ADII highlights: one-in-five Australians now only accesses the internet through a mobile device — and we know that mobile data is considerably more expensive than fixed broadband on a per gigabyte basis. 
Mobile-only use is correlated with a range of socioeconomic factors. The ADII data shows that people in low income households, those who are not employed, and those with low levels of education, are all more likely to be mobile-only.
Despite the benefits of mobile internet, this group is characterised by a relatively high degree of digital exclusion. In 2017, mobile-only users have an overall ADII score of 42.3, 14.2 points below the national average (56.5).
<h2>Digital inclusion is unequal</h2>
In the 2017 report, the ACT, followed by Victoria and New South Wales, are the highest scoring states in the overall digital inclusion score, as they were in 2016. Tasmania remains the lowest scoring, followed by South Australia. 
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Australia’s national digital inclusion score in 2017 is 56.5, but varies from state to state. <a class="source" href="https://digitalinclusionindex.org.au/" target="_blank">Australian Digital Inclusion Index</a>, Author provided
The lowest scoring socio-demographic groups in 2017 were households earning less than A$35,000 per year (overall score of 41.1), Australians aged over 65 (overall score of 42.9) and those with a disability (overall score of 47.0). 
The ADII uses data derived from Roy Morgan Research’s ongoing, weekly Single Source survey of 50,000 Australians. These are extensive, face-to-face interviews, dealing with information and technology, internet services, attitudes, and demographics. 
Calculations for the ADII are based on a sub-sample of 16,000 responses in each 12 month period. The index is a score out of 100: the higher the overall score, the higher the level of digital inclusion. An ADII score of 100 represents a hypothetically perfect level of access, affordability, and digital ability. A score of 65 or over is regarded as high; one below 45 as low. 
<h2>A focus on improvement</h2>
An increasing number of Australians are online, but although the costs of data and devices are falling, there is a risk that issues of affordability will leave some of our most vulnerable behind. 
Australians with low levels of income, education and employment are consistently less connected than the rest of the population, with consequences that will become increasingly serious as the digital transformation of government and the economy proceeds.
As an increasing number of essential services and communications move online, the challenge to make the Australian internet more inclusive is becoming more urgent. Affordability is a key area for attention, but so is improving Australians’ digital ability. 
The issue of affordability suggests a range of possible areas for useful policy intervention. If we think it important to subsidise essential utilities such as electricity for low-income Australians, we may need to consider whether an allowance for internet access for essential services might also be necessary.
For the large number of lower-income Australians who rely entirely on mobile devices for internet connections, we will also need to consider new ways to support digital inclusion. These could include unmetered access to essential health and social services, and the further development of secure, public access wi-fi.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/julian-thomas-393391" target="_blank">Julian Thomas</a> is Director, Social Change Enabling Capability Platform, RMIT University and author for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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Lack of internet affordability may worsen Australia’s digital divide

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/80965/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
A new report by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) reveals, for the first time, the extent of housing need in Australia.
An estimated 1.3 million households are in a state of housing need, whether unable to access market housing or in a position of rental stress. This figure is predicted to rise to 1.7 million by 2025.
To put it in perspective, 1.3 million is around 14% of Australian households. This national total includes 373,000 households in New South Wales, where the number is expected to increase by 80% to more than 670,000 by 2025 under the baseline economic assumptions of the modelling.
The first graph below shows the average annual level of housing need to 2025. The second, showing the percentages of households, permits a direct comparison by state. NSW and Queensland are in the worst position. The ACT is calculated to have the lowest proportional level of need.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.17.48%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.17.48%20AM.png" alt="">
 
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<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.18.59%20AM.png" alt="">
What does this mean for households in need?
Housing need is defined as:
… the aggregate of households unable to access market-provided housing or requiring some form of housing assistance in the private rental market to avoid a position of rental stress.
This includes potential households that are unable to form because their income is too low to afford to rent in the private rental market. These households would traditionally rely on public housing and community housing to meet their needs. However, more and more are being forced into the private rental market, paying housing costs they are unable to afford without making significant sacrifices.
To 2025, on average 190,000 potential households in NSW will be unable to access market housing in a given year. The graph below is the most revealing as it illustrates the gap between affordable housing demand and supply.
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<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.19.54%20AM.png" alt="">
The lack of social housing and subsidised rental housing prevents such households forming under affordable conditions. Many will manage to form but will have to spend well over 30% of their income on housing costs to do so, putting them in a position of financial stress.
The results also reveal the increasing pressure the affordable housing shortfall places on the housing assistance budget, notably Commonwealth Rent Assistance.
The absence of a significant new supply of affordable housing – there has been no large-scale program since the National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS) began in 2008 – has left state governments trying to find ways to plug the affordability gap.
Responses have been largely on the demand side, such as first home buyer concessions recently announced in NSW. But such incentives are no use for low-income households. To help them, intervention needs to be on the supply side.
How does Australia compare?
The AHURI research built on ideas emerging from research into housing need in the UK. It revealed interesting differences between the two countries.
UK government policy prior to 2010 emphasised the role of the planning system in helping to substantially increase affordable housing supply. This reflected evidence from England and Scotland that found a link between low levels of new housing supply and higher and rising house prices.
In this project, we found plenty of evidence of deteriorating housing affordability in Australia. But we did not find a particularly strong relationship between housing supply and  price growth. This might reflect how other drivers of deteriorating housing affordability are more important in Australia – such as tax incentives for investors.
These findings suggest we need to look more closely at how new supply and investment demand interact, and in what circumstances boosting new supply is likely to improve affordability.
From our analysis of individuals’ labour market circumstances and incomes, it was also clear that the Australian workforce has not escaped the erosion of secure, full-time employment opportunities seen in other countries.
The combination of widespread insecure, part-time employment opportunities, high housing costs and low supply of rented social housing means the housing of many working Australians is extremely precarious.
How was the research done?
The research modelled housing need at the state and territory level to 2025 using an underlying set of economic assumptions and interrelated models on household formation, housing markets, labour markets and tenure choice.
The models were underpinned by data from the Housing, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and house price and rent data.
This research delivers, for the first time in Australia, a consistent and replicable methodology for assessing housing need. It can be used to inform resource allocation and simulate the impact of policy decisions on housing outcomes.
The intention is to further develop the model to assess housing need at the level of local government areas.
So, what are the policy implications?
The scale of the affordable housing shortfall requires major action from federal and state governments.
NRAS had its problems but at least delivered a supply of below-market housing. Australia cannot rely on the private sector to deliver housing for low-income households without some form of government subsidy as it is simply not profitable to do so.
The question is what government is going to be prepared, or even able, to spend big to close the affordable housing supply gap?
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-rowley-201914">Steven Rowley </a>is Director, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Curtin Research Centre, Curtin University.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-leishman-391783">Chris Leishman</a> is Professor of Housing Economics, University of Adelaide.
Both are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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Affordable housing shortfall leaves 1.3m households in need and rising – study

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GUEST OBSERVER
Many people assume Australia’s regions are getting a raw deal compared to the big cities. But beneath the oft-told “tale of two Australia's” is a more nuanced story.
New research released today by the Grattan Institute shows that income growth and unemployment rates are not obviously worse in regional areas. Cities and regions both have pockets of disadvantage, as well as areas with healthy income growth and low unemployment.
But shifts in population are driving a wedge between city and regional Australia. Fewer people are living in remote areas. And because of this, the economy is becoming more concentrated in cities and large regional centres.
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Income growth was particularly high over the past decade in the mining areas of Western Australia and Queensland. But this is not just a mining-state phenomenon: average growth in income per person was similar in cities and regions across every state.
Income growth was high in areas close to the centre of Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide. But suburban parts of these cities did not fare so well – areas in Sydney’s west and Melbourne’s outer ring had some of the lowest income growth in the nation.
The absolute level of income tends to be higher in the cities than the regions - but this has always been so. The highest taxable incomes in Australia are in Sydney’s eastern suburbs, followed by Cottesloe in Perth and Stonnington in eastern Melbourne. The only regional area in the top 20 areas by taxable income is the mining region of Pilbara in WA.
The lowest taxable incomes are in Tasmania and the regions of the east-coast states, especially the far north coast of NSW, central Victoria and southern Queensland.
Where unemployment is worst
Unemployment is not obviously worse in the regions than the cities, but both have areas of strong disadvantage.
Parts of Far North Queensland have the highest rates of unemployment: 40% or more, compared to the national average of 6.1% in 2016. Most of these areas have had high unemployment rates for many years.
Unemployment tends to be higher in large regional towns than in surrounding rural areas. In the capital cities, unemployment is concentrated along the “spines” - built-up areas that follow major roads.
Unemployment got worse over the last five years in many areas where the jobless rate was already high. The unemployment rate increased in the northern parts of WA, the Northern Territory and Queensland between 2011 and 2016. Unemployment appears to be entrenched in these areas.
Unemployment also got worse along city “spines”: the Ipswich to Carole Park corridor in Brisbane, and the Dandenong to Pakenham corridor in Melbourne. The exception was the Botany Bay to Liverpool corridor in Sydney, where unemployment improved but remains high.
Population growth is much stronger in the cities
The regions are not noticeably falling behind in terms of income growth and employment. But there are big – and growing – differences in the location of economic activity and where people are choosing to live.
A long-term trend in Australia’s economy continued in the past decade: fewer people are working in agriculture and manufacturing, and more are finding jobs in services. The loss of agricultural and manufacturing work is felt most keenly in regional and outer-suburban areas. And many service jobs – particularly professional services – tend to cluster in the centre of cities.
Large regional towns exert a gravitational pull on the populations of smaller rural communities. Major cities have a stronger pull again, drawing younger and more-educated people from the regions as well as the majority of new migrants.
This is evident in the population data over the past decade: in general, populations declined in small towns in the east-coast states and South Australia, but increased in larger regional centres. Population – and unemployment – also tended to increase faster in the towns along the east coast. Populations in the major cities, meanwhile, grew strongly.
Voters in regional areas are increasingly voting for minor parties. It’s often suggested this is because of the deteriorating economic position of the regions.
But given that people in regions have generally fared as well as those in cities over the past decade, major parties may need to look beyond income and employment to discover what is driving dissatisfaction among regional voters.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12.16px;"></a>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" target="_blank">John Daley</a><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870"> </a>is Chief Executive Officer, Grattan Institute.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12.16px;"></a>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/carmela-chivers-390957" target="_blank">Carmela Chivers </a>is Associate, Grattan Institute, Grattan Institute.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12.16px;"></a>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/danielle-wood-147710" target="_blank">Danielle Wood </a>is Fellow, Australian Perspectives, Grattan Institute.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12.16px;"></a>
All are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </a>
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Australia’s city/country divide is not as wide as you may think

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GUEST OBSERVER
The traditional Australian suburban backyard is being lost to higher-density housing and massive project homes on small lots.
City planning is focused on making cities more compact, which in some ways is desirable, and the large backyard is seen as unsustainable and undesirable because of the space it consumes. But its loss could well be increasing the risks of physical and mental health problems among city residents.
Private and secure backyards are places where people can retreat from the relentless pressures and intensity of city life. This sort of open space may provide the essential nurturing environment city dwellers need to cope mentally and physically with the stresses of their lives.
And cities are stressful places in which to live and have always been so. In the second century AD, Roman poet Juvenal wrote that the noise and lack of sleep in Rome was a major problem. Only wealthy Roman citizens could deal with the stress by building homes surrounded by peaceful gardens outside the city centre.
<h2>How is our health affected?</h2>
Today, evidence shows us that city dwellers, while benefiting from the advantages of city living, also suffer.
For instance, they are more likely to experience anxiety and depression, and their risk of psychosis increases dramatically. City dwellers have been shown to have a 39% greater risk of mood disorders and a 21% added risk of anxiety disorders compared to rural dwellers.
Life stresses clearly play a major role in causing poor mental health among city dwellers, but the impact of the environment cannot be ignored. A recent review of 50 studies shows that an environment devoid of nature may have undesirable impacts on health or quality of life. Part of the problem lies in the visual absence of plants and landscape.
It’s reasonable, then, to suggest that a lack of landscaped settings, such as backyards, could reduce emotional wellbeing, particularly among people less able to cope with mental stresses.
<h2>A place of vanishing backyards</h2>
Perth, where project homes bigger than 300 square metres are common, provides an interesting case study.
When devising Perth planning policies in the 1950s, Gordon Stephenson argued that the large backyards associated with Australian homes reduced the need for large public recreation areas. The backyard was seen as necessary for healthy city living.
By the 1970s, land subdivisions in Perth usually produced a residential lot around 600m2 with a frontage of 20 metres. Because project homes were so much smaller then, with a minimum 6m rear setback, a Perth family usually had a backyard of 120m2 at the very least. These areas provided space for large trees, cubby houses, climbing frames, swings, gardens and area to throw a ball.
Today, Perth planning regulations require private open space smaller than a double garage per family household. Houses like those of Alkimos and Ellenbrook, on Perth’s fringes, spread almost from boundary to boundary.
The houses comply with Perth planning requirements that allow areas under eaves, patios, verandahs and paved parking areas to be included in open space calculations.
<h2>Starved of space, and hotter</h2>
The result is little useful recreational outdoor space. Far from being child-friendly, these family homes without backyards are restricting our children from enjoying a normal active life in the safety of their homes.
Children have to use indoor spaces for recreation. This usually take the form of sedentary entertainment sources such as television and electronic games, adding to a great public health problem confronting our children. Obesity is associated with a lack of exercise as well as eating fast food.
Reducing open green space is also increasing urban temperatures, with major physical health consequences. All Australian capitals will increase significantly in average temperature by 2050. Perth will become Australia’s hottest capital with estimated heat-related deaths increasing from 294 a year to 1,419, many more than the city’s annual road toll.
It has been known for many years that the best way to combat urban heat is by providing well-landscaped open spaces with large trees. This is the very type of space that many large backyards provided.
We can confirm this cooling effect using thermal imaging. This thermal image of suburban Perth, taken on a 38-degree day, shows that landscaped backyards in older suburbs (blue) are far cooler than more intense housing developments with little private open space (orange to red).
<img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/179764/width754/file-20170726-20682-17jv4ol.jpg" alt="">
A thermal image shows older suburban areas with large landscaped backyards are much cooler (blue) than the hotter (orange-red) higher-density areas of Perth. Dr Paul Barber ArborCarbon
Leadership is needed
What can and should be done?
The principle is simple: in the suburbs we need to build smaller two-storey project homes with large backyards open to the sky, just as they have learnt to do in the suburbs of European cities. The role of these backyards can change as family lifecycle needs change.
Achieving this, however, will be difficult. Australians show little self-control of their consumption even when warned of the consequences.
A change is needed, driven by courageous, sensible and forward-thinking politicians who can see beyond the compact city pushed by planning bureaucrats.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/linley-lutton-298755" target="_blank">Linley Lutton</a> is Adjunct Senior Teaching Fellow in Urban Planning and Design, University of Western Australia and author for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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Vanishing Australian backyards leave us vulnerable to the stresses of city life

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GUEST OBSERVER
Housing approvals recorded a strong June, but in trend terms are flattening out at levels well below last year’s peak. 
We expect further declines will come through in the remainder of the year, although it is likely the most sizeable falls have already occurred. 
Meanwhile, despite a small fall in June non-residential approvals remain elevated, led by strength in Victoria’s office segment.
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Housing approvals rose sharply in June, with 10.9% m/m growth more than offsetting the previous month’s decline. The monthly rise was driven primarily by the unit/apartment segment in New South Wales, which rose 43% m/m. Victoria also recorded a solid rise in June, up 6% overall, adding to May’s increase.
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The upshot of this strong result is that total building approvals (in trend terms) have started to stabilise some 15% below the peak of last year. We still expect further declines will come through over the second half of 2017, driven by tighter credit conditions and higher interest rates for investors, although the size of these falls will likely be tempered by the fact that the RBA is not yet embarking on a tightening cycle. At any rate, it appears that the sharpest falls in approvals are behind us.
Click to enlarge
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While NSW housing approvals are proving resilient, Victoria is the shining light for the non- residential sector. In trend terms, non-residential approvals in Victoria are 60% higher than at the end of 2016. The office segment has been the key driver of this strength, with monthly approvals now sitting at record levels. This is likely to provide some offset to the eventual decline in housing construction as the current backlog of work is eroded. 
Daniel Gradwell is the senior economist for <a href="https://www.anz.com.au/">ANZ</a>.
 
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Australian housing approvals still falling: Daniel Gradwell

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GUEST OBSERVER
The phrase “coworking spaces” may conjure up images of tech-savvy millennials working for startups in converted warehouses. Add in the obligatory ping-pong tables, bean bags and beer on tap. 
But our report on the Australian coworking industry shows much more is going on in these spaces than this cliché. We found more than 300 coworking spaces are operating across Australia, up from only 60 spaces in 2013.
Rather than just catering to one type of worker, coworking spaces are used by people from different backgrounds, professions and ages. We also found the majority (53%) of Australia’s coworking spaces are in or around the CBD of our major cities. Sydney and Melbourne take the lion’s share overall, where our coworking industry first started out. 
Most coworking spaces target small-business workers, who tend to be in professional services and creative or knowledge-based work. They are also more likely to be living in our major cities. 
However, newer coworking spaces are emerging on city fringes (7%) and in our regional towns (15%). These spaces focus on supporting local employment opportunities and bringing businesses together for economic development. 
The form and function of these regional spaces are often inspired by city-based models. As an example, The Creative Fringe in Penrith, on the outskirts of Sydney, seeks to drive local innovation and collaboration.
Beyond the tech start-up hub
There’s a trend we found where coworking spaces are popping up in locations geared towards supporting lifestyle choices of professionals who want a “sea change”. 
The Gold and Sunshine Coasts in Queensland and the Central Coast in New South Wales have a surprisingly high number of coworking spaces. Other popular seaside locations include Byron Bay and the South Coast of NSW.
One example of this type of space is Cows Near the Coast. It’s on the main street in Bega, South Coast NSW, and actively encourages “sea-changers” to join their community. 
We also found certain recurring types of spaces. One type focuses specifically on high-end professionals wanting to work in style and impress their corporate clients, often located on the top floors of CBD high-rises. Gravity coworking spaces are a good example of this type.
In contrast to this corporate atmosphere, we found some coworking spaces are also the home of social enterprises. These spaces support typically younger people to combine business know-how with their passion for community impact, specialising in supporting their altruistic visions. 
These spaces have none of the gloss of many other coworking spaces. You’ll find recycled furniture and inspiring quotes emblazened on the walls in these spaces. The Common Room at Vibewire in Sydney epitomises this type.
For many smaller towns and regions, coworking spaces are where ﬁercely proud locals go to take action around the future of their community. BizBuddyHub in Point Cook, Victoria, is an example of this. This coworking community was set up with a campaign advocating for a space for locals who would otherwise have to commute into Melbourne. 
Who owns and runs coworking spaces?
Around 75% of coworking spaces in Australia are owned and run as private businesses. The majority of these (54%) are run as a separate business, for profit, under private ownership. 
Small-business owners are also enhancing their appeal to existing and future clients by starting up these coworking spaces. In our research, we found 21% of all Australian coworking spaces are run as ancillary to an operator’s regular small-business activities. 
Not-for-profit coworking spaces make up 8% of Australian spaces, usually established to pursue a social causes, such as reducing youth unemployment. Some of the most well-established coworking spaces in Australia are set up as non-profit organisations.
A small numbers of coworking spaces are state or local government funded (6%) with an aim to support economic development in that region.
Recently a number of corporate-owned coworking spaces (7%) have emerged, which are primarily set up to support their own customers, such as small business customers, who use these spaces to grow their business. Good examples of these include The Village at National Australia Bank, and Australia Post’s Small Business Hive at Geelong.
Commercial real estate operators are also exploring coworking as a way to facilitate a sense of community in multi-tenanted office towers, such as Dexus Place.
Coworking spaces operated by universities (4%) are the latest addition to the industry, supporting alternative career choices for students, and deeper engagement with industry. 
The future of coworking
Coworking spaces are now found in at least 89 countries, spanning six continents. Best guesses indicate that by the end of this year there will be over 14,000 spaces worldwide. 
Coworking spaces facilitate work in ways that other workplaces can learn from. They go beyond simple “hot-desking” and the open plan work settings which many of us have become familiar with. They are places where people are welcomed and hosted, with regular social and learning events that engage members and their guests. This creates a real sense of community and belonging. 
This is something that larger organisations are starting to look for inspiration. Recently, WeWork, the world’s largest coworking operator, has started designing workplaces on behalf of large corporations. Many Australian corporates are engaged in partnerships or sponsorship of coworking spaces, with some simply supporting their employees to work flexibly from them. 
The diversity of coworking spaces we found in this study means that these spaces can cater to a variety of workers, allowing them to collaborate with other interesting businesses and professionals from all walks of life. 
These coworking spaces offer examples of how work can be transformed to have a greater focus on community and belonging. The humanity we found in our coworking spaces offers us hope for the future of work which, under constant threat of disruption and automation, will no doubt continue to play an important role in our lives and in forming our work identities.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tim-mahlberg-272846" target="_blank">Tim Mahlberg</a> is PhD Researcher, University of Sydney and author for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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Australian coworking spaces cater to a more diverse crowd than just young tech entrepreneurs

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/consolidated-properties">Consolidated Properties Group</a> (CPG) is approaching the launch of its latest Brisbane riverfront development, Castile, on the dress circle Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

VIP buyers are now being engaged, with a full public sales launch coming later this year.

Positioned as the final opportunity to secure a new absolute riverfront residence on the East bank of Newstead, Teneriffe or New Farm, Castile at 47 Skyring Terrace has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> as a timeless addition to the Brisbane skyline.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=371113]

The name Castile draws on themes of permanence, sophistication and legacy, reflecting a broader vision centred on enduring architecture and timelessness in the rarest of riverfront positions.&nbsp;

CPG Chairman and CEO Don O’Rorke said the project had been envisioned as a future Brisbane icon.&nbsp;

“With 47 metres of direct river frontage and never to be built out views, 47 Skyring Terrace is the definitive address on the Brisbane River,” O’Rorke said.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=371114]

“Rather than following trend-based apartment design, Castile draws inspiration from Brisbane’s great heritage buildings, reinterpreting classical architecture into a contemporary riverfront landmark designed to stand proudly for the next 100 years,” he said.&nbsp;

The approved development will comprise 227 apartments across a 25-storey tower alongside a boutique six-storey riverfront building of just 12 residences.&nbsp;

Construction is scheduled to commence in September 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150489]

Joel Robinson

CPG unveils Castile Newstead ahead of upcoming sales launch

Australia’s online shopping habits have shifted dramatically over the last decade. As eCommerce volumes surged, so too did the frustrations that came with traditional parcel delivery: missed deliveries, long Post Office queues, parcel theft and the challenge of being home during business hours.

Australia Post’s Parcel Lockers emerged as one of the more practical responses to that changing consumer behaviour.

What started as a relatively niche delivery option has evolved into a nationwide network of more than 1,400 self-service Parcel Lockers positioned at train stations, shopping centres, supermarkets and Post Offices across the country. The system allows Australians to send, collect and return parcels 24 hours a day, fundamentally changing how many people interact with deliveries.

The appeal is relatively straightforward: flexibility.

Instead of waiting at home for a delivery driver or rushing to a Post Office before closing time, users can direct eligible parcels to a Parcel Locker location of their choice. Once the parcel arrives, Australia Post sends a notification with a collection code or QR access through the AusPost app, allowing customers to retrieve their package at any time within the collection window.

For apartment residents in particular, the system has become increasingly valuable.

Higher-density living has created logistical challenges around deliveries, especially in buildings without concierge services or secure parcel rooms. Missed deliveries are common, while parcel theft has become an increasing concern as online shopping volumes continue to rise.

Australia Post itself has repeatedly highlighted the growing issue of “porch pirates” during peak shopping periods, encouraging customers to use Parcel Lockers as a safer alternative to unattended home deliveries.

That security aspect is one of the key reasons the Australia Post Parcel Locker network has grown so rapidly.

Parcel Lockers are positioned as secure, monitored collection points that reduce the risk of theft while also improving delivery efficiency for Australia Post. Instead of multiple redelivery attempts, parcels can be consolidated into a single secure destination.

The Parcel Lockers themselves are free to use through a MyPost account and support a range of parcel sizes up to 16 kilograms and dimensions of approximately 35 x 44 x 61 centimetres.

Beyond receiving parcels, the system has increasingly become integrated into the broader eCommerce ecosystem.

Customers can now use Parcel Lockers to return online purchases, while retailers have embraced the model as a way to improve delivery success rates and reduce friction in the shopping process. Australia Post has actively expanded partnerships with major retailers and promoted Parcel Lockers as part of a broader out-of-home strategy.

The timing of that expansion aligns with broader changes in Australian shopping behaviour.

The acceleration of online retail during and after the pandemic placed enormous pressure on delivery infrastructure. Parcel volumes reached record highs, particularly during Black Friday and Christmas periods, with Australia Post delivering more than 100 million parcels during peak festive seasons.

That growth forced logistics providers to rethink the “last mile” of delivery, widely regarded as the most expensive and operationally difficult stage of the process.

Parcel Locker systems have increasingly been viewed as part of the long-term solution.

The concept itself is not unique to Australia. Parcel Locker networks have become common globally, particularly across Europe and Asia, where dense urban environments and apartment living create similar logistical challenges. But Australia’s geography and suburban sprawl made adoption slower initially.

Now, however, the convenience factor is driving mainstream usage.

For commuters, Parcel Lockers near train stations allow parcels to be collected on the way home from work. For apartment dwellers, they remove the uncertainty around access and missed deliveries.

The rise of the AusPost app has also streamlined the experience, centralising notifications, tracking and Parcel Locker access into a single platform. Australia Post has increasingly pushed customers toward app-based delivery management, partly as a way to combat phishing scams and fake delivery notifications, which have become more sophisticated in recent years.

The Parcel Locker model is also beginning to influence property development itself.

Parcel management has become a growing consideration in apartment building design, particularly as online shopping becomes embedded in everyday life. Many new residential developments are now incorporating dedicated parcel rooms or Parcel Locker systems into foyers and communal spaces.

For developers, parcel management is increasingly viewed as part of the broader resident amenity offering, alongside gyms, wellness spaces and communal work areas.

That reflects a wider evolution in how residential buildings are designed.

Apartment buyers are placing greater emphasis on convenience, security and operational functionality, particularly in higher-density urban environments. Parcel delivery, once considered a minor operational detail, has become an increasingly important part of that equation.

Australia Post’s Parcel Locker network sits at the centre of that behavioural shift.

What began as a simple alternative delivery option has evolved into a key piece of infrastructure supporting Australia’s growing eCommerce economy and changing urban lifestyles.

And as online shopping continues to expand, the role of Parcel Lockers is likely to become even more embedded in how Australians live, shop and receive goods.

How Australia Post Parcel Lockers changed parcel delivery convenience in Australia

Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Jonathan Chancellor

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