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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The RBA has started the year with a significant shift, lowering its growth outlook and acknowledging greater uncertainties and downside risks.
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The RBA has started the year with a significant shift, lowering its growth outlook and acknowledging greater uncertainties and downside risks. While the Board still expects the economy to track towards its employment and inflation targets, and does not see a strong case for a near term change in the cash rate, there has been a clear change in emphasis.
In particular, the Governor has moved from the view, expressed throughout 2018, that “the next move in the cash rate was more likely to be an increase than a decrease” to one in which the probabilities of the next move being up or down are “more evenly balanced”.
This move to a balanced rate outlook is significant because it clearly establishes that the Bank is prepared to contemplate rate cuts - a position that has really only emerged since the housing markets have reversed. It is also consistent with changes announced by other central banks notably the US Federal Reserve. We see these changes as a welcome shift, bringing the RBA’s thinking more into line with our own.
As expected, the Reserve Bank Board again left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% at its February meeting. Also as expected, the Bank has lowered its forecasts for growth – outlined in the Governor’s decision statement and detailed more fully in his speech a day later.
The RBA’s growth forecast for 2019 has been revised down from 3¼% to 3%, and its forecast for 2020 revised from 3% to 2.75%, the slowdown year to year reflecting a tapering in resource export volumes. It is significant that growth on average is still expected to be around the ‘trend’ rate of 2¾%.
The RBA has also revised its inflation outlook with the forecast for underlying inflation for 2019 reduced from 2¼% to 2%, while the 2020 forecast remains at 2¼%. The Bank is maintaining the view that inflation will gradually move into the 2-3% band, although it is expected to take somewhat longer than previously expected. There are good reasons why the Bank lowered its growth forecasts.
Firstly, while it still assesses the outlook for global growth as “reasonable”, it recognises that “downside risks have increased” (notably, when asked to rank the risks to the economic outlook, the Governor still nominates ‘global’ issues as a bigger concern).
Secondly, it has made some significant changes around the household sector and housing.
For some time, Westpac has argued that the fall in house prices in Sydney and Melbourne would be associated with a negative wealth effect weighing on consumer spending. In the RBA’s previous writings, it tended to dismiss this prospect.
Although it is still downplayed, the Governor’s latest speech gives more weight to the issue, noting that rising housing prices provided an offset to slow income growth for some households and this effect is now shifting but that an expected pick-up in household disposable income was seen as providing a counterweight to the wealth effects of lower housing prices.
Specifically, consumption growth is expected to hold at 2.75% in line with disposable income growth, implying a stabilisation in the savings rate. This ‘housing-consumer nexus’ is seen as a key area of uncertainty. It remains the key point of difference between Westpac’s 2.6%yr growth forecast for this year and next and the RBA’s at or above trend view.
Westpac has also argued that residential housing construction would be a drag on growth in both 2019 and 2020. The RBA did not support that view, referring to a strong pipeline and only a gradual decline. Recent falls in dwelling approvals, across both high rise and non high rise segments, are now pointing more clearly to a significant drag on growth from the housing construction downturn.
Accordingly the RBA has downgraded its view, the Governor indicating dwelling investment is forecast to decline by about 10% over the next two and a half years.
The RBA continues to see rising business investment and higher levels of public infrastructure spending as the key growth drivers. It also remains positive about the labour market, reaffirming its forecasts for the unemployment rate to fall further to 4¾% by the end of 2020 and an associated lift in wages growth.
The Reserve Bank’s revised view has narrowed the gap with our own but Westpac remains more downbeat. Even so, our weaker forecasts have not been weak enough to warrant forecasting a rate cut. Accordingly, even if the RBA moves further towards Westpac’s current view it seems likely that rates will remain on hold.
The threshold for policy is whether spillovers knock the labour market off course. Our current forecasts do not incorporate that prospect but we acknowledge downside risks. 
Read full report <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/February/er20190208BullInterestRates.pdf">'Australian interest rates' (PDF 77kb)</a>
BILL EVANS is Chief Economist for Westpac
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RBA shifts to a more balanced view: Westpac's Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Governor chose to repeat the statement’s concluding paragraph which explains the policy decision with the same words that he used in December despite lower forecasts and recognition of downside risks.
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As expected, the Board of the Reserve Bank decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. At the February meeting, the Board discusses the executive’s revised forecasts which will be released in the February Statement of Monetary Policy on February 8.
However, in recent statements, the Governor has provided readers with growth and inflation forecasts and this was repeated in today’s statement.
For 2019, forecast growth has been revised down from 3 ¼ per cent to 3 per cent, and 2020, from 3 per cent to “a little less” due to slower growth in exports of resources.
It is important that this 3 per cent growth forecast is above the assessed trend rate of 2 ¾ per cent, and the implied 2020 forecast is likely to be around trend.
If a central bank is forecasting above trend growth, then it is highly unlikely to adopt an easing bias, and indeed the chances are still likely that the Governor will persist with his assessment that even though rates are likely to remain steady for some time, the next move is likely to be up.
The inflation forecasts were also revised with the underlying inflation forecast for 2019 reduced from 2 ¼ per cent to 2 per cent, while the 2020 forecast remains at 2 ¼ per cent. Hence the Bank is maintaining the view that inflation will gradually move into the 2 to 3 per cent band, although it will take somewhat longer than previously expected.
There are good reasons why the Bank lowered its growth forecasts. Firstly, while it still assesses the outlook for global growth as “reasonable”, it recognises that “downside risks have increased”. Secondly, it has made some significant changes around the household sector and housing.
For some time, Westpac has argued that the fall in house prices in Sydney and Melbourne will be associated with a negative wealth effect.
In the RBA’s previous writings, they tended to dismiss any wealth effect, but in today’s statement the Governor notes “the main domestic uncertainty remains around the outlook for household spending and the effect of falling housing prices in some cities”.
In linking house prices with household spending, he appears to be recognising the risk of a negative wealth effect.
Westpac has also argued that residential housing construction will be a drag on growth in both 2019 and 2020. The RBA has not supported that view, referring to a strong pipeline. But, recent falls in dwelling approvals, including for detached housing, clearly point to a significant drag on growth from the housing construction downturn.
The statement continues to point to “rising business investment” which in the December statement was linked to “business conditions are positive”. The Governor has obviously decided that the strong negative signal from the recent NAB business survey was insufficient at this stage to review the business investment outlook.
Given that the survey was taken in early January, Westpac thinks that approach is reasonable but there will be considerable interest to see whether future surveys send a more positive signal.
The Governor maintains his positive rhetoric around the labour market and confirms its forecast that the unemployment rate will fall to 4 ¾ per cent by the end of 2020. He also expects a further lift in wages over time, supporting household incomes.
Financial conditions in the US attract some attention, although the recent sharp decline in equity prices is noted to have been partly reversed. He also observes that market participants no longer expect the FOMC to be tightening monetary policy.
The Sydney and Melbourne housing markets are assessed as “going through a period of adjustment”, and credit conditions have tightened.
This is the approach which he has taken in previous statements but it is very significant that he has begun to recognise a potential wealth effect, meaning that the price adjustment may have implications for the real economy.
With a more cautious view on the wealth effect and recognition that dwelling construction will contract, Westpac’s GDP forecast for 2019 and 2020 is 2.6%, with recent data releases pointing to downside risks even for those modest numbers.
Finally, the Governor chose to repeat the concluding paragraph which explains the policy decision with the same words that he used in December despite lower forecasts and recognition of downside risks.
Notably, it includes the sentence “Further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual.”
Conclusion
With these revised forecasts, the RBA is clearly less comfortable with its previous positive outlook. Its growth forecasts remain significantly above Westpac’s own view.
With our forecasts of 2.6% growth in 2019 and 2020, it still seems that the more likely outcome will be for steady rates, even if as we expect, the RBA will eventually have to adopt growth forecasts much closer to Westpac’s current view.
Westpac confirms its long-held forecast that the RBA cash rate will remain on hold in 2019 and 2020.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist for Westpac
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Reserve Bank lowers growth and inflation forecasts but remains confident: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The consumer mood continues to hold at cautiously optimistic levels. With another reading above 100, December now marks a full year in which optimists have outnumbered pessimists, a turnaround on 2017 which saw ten out of twelve sentiment updates below the 100 line. That said, the margin is still fairly small with some of the detail in the December update on the soft side. The component indexes show more downbeat views on family finances and longer term economic prospects offset by a solid rise in buyer sentiment.
Given the negative atmospherics around falling house prices in Sydney and Melbourne; falling share markets (the ASX200 now down around 13% from its recent peak in late August and 4.5% since the last survey); ongoing concerns around global trade wars; and political uncertainty, it is reasonable to question why consumer sentiment has held up so well.
There are several significant positives supporting consumers. Firstly, interest rates remain low and fears about rising rates must be subsiding. To this point, the confidence of respondents who hold a mortgage improved by 2.9% in the month to be up by 8.8% over the year. The labour market also remains a source of comfort with the unemployment rate widely reported at a six and a half year low. Finally, a sharp drop in petrol prices has likely provided some additional support over the last month with the average pump price down around 20% since the November survey.
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/12/12/Consumer.jpg" alt="">
Without a doubt our housing-related indexes show considerable unrest, particularly in NSW and Victoria, while our survey also shows that risk aversion continues to rise.
The ‘finances vs a year ago’ sub-index recorded a 1.9% decline, reversing about half of last month’s surprisingly firm 4.9% gain. The ‘finances, next 12 months’ sub-index also posted a small 0.6% decline following a solid 3.2% gain in November. In both cases, the state detail shows more pronounced monthly declines in NSW and Victoria partially offset by strong gains in the mining states. While some of the weakening in the eastern states may be a sign that the housing downturn is starting to undermine consumer views on their finances, these state measures are still comfortably above their earlier 2018 lows.
Consumers were a touch less optimistic around the economy. The ‘economic outlook, next 12mths’ sub-index rose slightly by 0.1% but the ‘economic outlook, next 5yrs’ sub-index retraced 1.5% – giving up some of the 9.7% jump in November. Both sub-indexes remain well above long run averages. The mix suggests relatively little impact from the disappointing September quarter national accounts update.
The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index rose 3.7%, more than reversing a 3.5% decline in November. While this marks a promising lift in buyer sentiment leading into the Christmas retail peak the lead-in is still less upbeat than a year ago, the sub-index down 1.9% on December 2017. Recall that our survey in November signalled that the Christmas selling season would somewhat underperform the disappointing results of last year.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index rose 0.5% in December (recall that higher reads mean more consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead). While this still marks a 5.2% improvement on a year ago, expectations are flattening, suggesting labour market momentum is slowing.
Responses to additional questions on news recall emphasise some of the key themes. News on ‘economic conditions’ had the highest cut through with nearly a third of consumers noting news on this topic (up from 20% in September) and the news viewed much more unfavourably. The next highest recall was for news around ‘interest rates’ (21%); ‘Budget and tax’ (20%); and ‘international conditions’ (14%). Assessments of the news on ‘interest rates’ showed some improvement compared to September while ‘Budget and tax’ news was viewed about the same as three months ago but much less negatively than in December last year. Not surprisingly, there was a sharp deterioration in assessments of news around international conditions.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>. 
 
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Consumer sentiment continues at cautiously optimistic levels

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50% at its December board meeting. That makes 26 consecutive meetings that rates have been on hold.
As has been the case with most Statements by the Governor in this cycle, there are very limited changes in this Statement.
Clearly, developments in global trade are tempering the Bank’s views on the global economy. In November, the Governor referred to “uncertainty from the direction of international trade policy in the United States”. In this Statement, he is much more explicit noting “there are, however, some signs of a slowdown in global trade partly stemming from ongoing trade tensions”.
The positive growth forecasts of 3.5% (average over 2018 and 2019) are confirmed. The positive business conditions and rising levels of public infrastructure expenditure are noted. On the other hand, uncertainty around the outlook for household consumption remains an issue.
With the increase in the AUD since the last meeting (trade weighted index up 1.5%), the sentiment “the Australian dollar remains within the range that it has been in over the past two years on trade-weighted basis” persists. Although in November it was described as being in the lower part of the range.
Since the last board meeting, the Bank has released its November Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP). In that SoMP, it includes a graph of the wage price index (WPI) and the Bank’s forecasts. A reasonable ‘eyeball’ of the graph points to the official forecast for growth in the wage price index to reach 2.75% by end 2020. Note that at the beginning of the three previous rate hike cycles, the WPI was growing in the range of 3.5 to 4%. That forecast certainly supports the Bank’s observation that the lift in wages growth will be a gradual process. Indeed, a reasonable person might be excused for thinking that even though the rhetoric is for the next move in the cash rate to be up, the Bank expects that event to be a very long way away.
The greatest interest was always going to be in the revised assessment of conditions in the housing market. Despite recent reports of sharp falls in prices in both Sydney and Melbourne, the description of the housing market remains “conditions… have continued to ease”. A stronger description would not have been out of place.
In November, finance conditions were described as “credit conditions are tighter than they have been for some time”. The description in this Statement is “credit conditions for some borrowers are tighter than they have been for some time, with some lenders having a reduced appetite to lend”( arguably a more benign description of credit conditions).
At least the commentary is more cautious on lending growth with the term “growth in credit extended to owner-occupiers… remains robust”, being replaced by a factual assessment that the annualised pace of credit extended to owner-occupiers has eased to 5-6% (that compares with a peak of 8.8% in July 2017). It is also noteworthy that new lending to owner-occupiers fell by around 10% in the two months of August and September 2018.
The final paragraph in the Statement is unchanged, noting that progress towards reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected to be gradual.
Back in early 2017, Westpac predicted that the cash rate would remain on hold through 2017 and 2018. That view was certainly not popular in markets and in consensus forecasts.
The on hold decision today finally justifies that call.
We continue to expect that the cash rate will be on hold through 2019 and 2020.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>. 
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RBA's rate likely to be on hold until 2020: Westpac's Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The minutes of the November monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board confirm the confident approach we have seen in the recent Statement on Monetary Policy.
While consumption growth is still identified as a source of uncertainty, the Board expects it to remain around the 3% level over the next few years that we have seen recently. Household disposable income growth is also forecast to increase at that rate.
GDP growth and labour market conditions had been stronger than the Bank had expected over the last twelve months. Accordingly, the forecast for the unemployment rate had been lowered to 4 ¾ per cent from 5 per cent by mid-2020, with an implied downside risk to that forecast. With the improved labour market outlook, there has been a modest upward revision to the outlook for wages growth. This is a particular encouraging development for the Bank as they see wages growth as the key uncertainty for future consumption growth and inflation.
In that regard, the forecast for inflation has been lifted modestly, reflecting the brighter outlook for economic activity, the labour market and wages.
Despite a disappointing capex survey, non-mining business investment was expected to continue to make a significant contribution to output growth supported by above average business conditions and the significant pipeline of non-residential construction work.
Their discussion around the housing market is a little less confident. Residential building approvals are recognised to have fallen in the September quarter and liaison with builders paints a difficult picture. Furthermore, it is noted that housing prices have fallen further in Sydney and Melbourne, although are stable in most other cities. With the Bank’s core forecast that consumption and income growth will be aligned, there is no allowance for any negative wealth effects from these housing developments. The minutes discuss the various policy stances of other central banks noting that “market pricing was consistent with policy rates remaining steady over the following year in Australia and New Zealand, where policy rates had not been lowered to the extent they had in some other economies”.
The Board also discussed the Bank’s forecasting performance over the previous year, noting that forecast errors were smaller than historical averages with GDP growth and business investment surprising to the upside, the terms of trade average being higher than expected, and the marked depreciation in the Australian Dollar. Labour market outcomes were also stronger than expected, although wages growth and inflation had evolved largely as expected. This assessment supports the gradualist policy approach supported by growth holding above potential with associated declining spare capacity leading to a gradual increase in wages growth and inflation.
There is also a rather curious discussion around arguments that had been advanced by various commentators. The arguments are set out but they make no qualitative assessment of their reliability.
We know that the Governor has noted that interest rates could be cut in the event of a global shock and it is interesting that the minutes point out that the monetary policy response to that shock would depend on the associated move in the exchange rate.
The final section of the minutes once again emphasises the importance of wages growth. It is noted that there has been a noticeable pick-up in wages growth in most advanced economies, and Australia requires “a gradual increase in wages growth for inflation to be sustainably within the target range”.
As in the section of the minutes on the domestic economy, the concluding section leaves the discussion around housing markets somewhat up in the air. Credit conditions are recognised as being tighter than they had been for some time, but lending rates remain low and there was strong competition for borrowers of high quality.
In the final paragraph in the minutes, the Board emphasises that “there was no strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy”, although the comment “since progress on unemployment and inflation was likely to be gradual” which featured in the October minutes was not used in these minutes. Based on the confident assessment in the body of the minutes, it is possible that the Board is a little more confident with its view that the next move in the cash rate will be an increase.
Conclusion
This is a balanced set of minutes but does indicate more confidence from the Board around its growth, employment, wages and inflation views. The outlook was also boosted by the expectation that consumption and income growth will hold at 3% despite slowing employment growth, and risks around the housing market in Sydney and Melbourne.
By noting that market pricing is not expecting a policy adjustment for the next year, the Bank does appear to be extremely patient with its next policy move. Westpac expects that their growth forecast for 3 ¼ per cent growth in 2019 is too high, mainly because of an expected downturn in residential construction, a slowdown in consumption growth associated with weaker income growth and some wealth effects. That development alone is likely to take the edge off the expectation of rising wages and higher inflation.
We retain our view that the cash rate will remain on hold in 2019 and 2020.
BILL EVANS is the chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
 
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Balanced set of RBA minutes, but confidence indicated from the Board: Bill Evans

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The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 2.8% to 104.3 in November from 101.5 in October.
That was a surprisingly strong result. In particular, respondents are much more positive about their own finances. That is despite consistent reports around weakness in the housing markets in the major capitals and the sharp falls in the equity market through October.
Low interest rates and their prospect of being sustained for some time are clearly supporting confidence.
For example, the confidence of those respondents with a mortgage increased by 4.3%. However, on a more cautionary note, measures of spending intentions have been weaker.
Consumer views around housing were very interesting. Buyer sentiment improved sharply but price expectations fell to new lows.
The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index posted a strong 11.8% surge to be up 16.7% on a year ago to the highest level since March 2015.
Consumers in NSW showed a particularly strong gain with a 26% jump taking the state index to a five year high and suggesting the decline in Sydney house prices is starting to generate some interest from buyers.
Because the NSW Index has been so low, this stunning improvement only restores the Index to just below its long term average.
The other state, Victoria, where prices have recently shown significant weakness, improved only modestly with “Time to Buy” up only 3.3%.
Consumer expectations for house prices posted another fall in November.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations fell 2.3% to 99 – on par with the weakest read we have ever seen on this index, when it was first compiled back in May 2009.
The state detail continues to show particularly weak reads in NSW and Victoria, both hitting new lows in November with Victoria’s index down 25% over the last three months alone.
The house price corrections underway in Sydney and Melbourne now look to be firmly embedded in consumer expectations.
In this cycle, Sydney dwelling prices have already fallen by 8.7% while prices in Melbourne are down by 5.1%.
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New lending for housing is also contracting. New lending for “upgraders” (owner occupiers excluding First Home Buyers) has fallen by 13.2% over the last year (October 2017 to September 2018) but more significantly has fallen by 10.7% in the two months to September.
New lending to investors peaked in December 2016 and has fallen by 25.9% in the year to September 2018 and 4% over the last two months.
These developments have largely reflected stretched affordability (on the demand side) in the two cities and tighter lending policies from the four major banks (on the supply side).
Households now expect house prices to continue to fall. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations has fallen by 39% for NSW and 41.5% for Victoria over the last year. 
Both indexes moved from prints which indicated that optimists strongly outnumbered pessimists (134 for NSW and 144 for Victoria) to positions where pessimists outnumber optimists (82 for NSW and 84 for Victoria). 
Note that any read below 100 indicates a majority of pessimists.
Furthermore these current levels are the lowest we have registered since Westpac and the Melbourne Institute first started this question in the Consumer Sentiment survey in May 2009.
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Westpac also calculates measures of housing affordability. These relate to the proportion of income required to accumulate a deposit and service a loan which is 75% of the median house price. These measures of affordability can vary around assumptions related to the time required to accumulate the deposit and whether the 75% is a reasonable assumption.
Based on the estimates being used we assess that affordability in both NSW and Victoria is more stretched than we saw in the previous periods which preceded falls in house prices – 2008/09 and 2010/11.
Peak to trough in those previous periods were falls of 6.4% (Sydney) and 8.7% (Melbourne) in 2008/2009 and 3.4% (Sydney) and 8.2% (Melbourne) in 2010/2012.
The restoration of affordability in those previous periods came through falls in interest rates and house prices while income growth also contributed. Wages growth was running at around 4% in both periods. That compares with current wages growth of 2.3%.
In the 2008/09 period the RBA cut the cash rate by 425 basis points from 7.25% to 3%; in the 2011/12 period it cut rates.
by 175 basis points from 4.75% to 3.00%. The challenge with this particular cycle is that the RBA appears to be absolutely committed to the next move in rates being up.
So in those previous periods affordability and demand were restored through a combination of income growth; substantial rate cuts; and price adjustments. In this current period the responsibility for a restoration of affordability will fall mainly to price adjustments.
The Consumer Sentiment Report indicated that the “Time to Buy a Dwelling” Index had lifted significantly in the weak NSW market.
That might imply that despite continuing stretched affordability, prospective buyers may be considering re-entering the market. That does seem surprising given the downbeat price expectations and stretched affordability.
However, as discussed, in this cycle there is another complication.
We have a different environment from the perspective of credit supply. Banks have tightened credit conditions such that when demand for credit recovers (as may be implied by the “Time to Buy” index for NSW) it may not be as simply accommodated as was the case in those previous periods.
This will complicate the usual adjustment process. Markets stabilise when prospective buyers feel encouraged to re-enter the market. Affordability returning to equilibrium and price expectations turning positive are generally the triggers for markets to recover.
 The “Time to Buy” index for NSW is sending an encouraging early signal but if prospective buyers are unable to secure adequate funding to enter the market, the move to the new equilibrium may be more extended.
In summary it is apparent that this cycle is quite different to the two previous down cycles for dwelling prices. Affordability is more stretched and sources of adjustment are more restricted.
 Furthermore, credit conditions indicate that a recovery in affordability and demand may not be accommodated through credit supply in the same way we saw in previous cycles.
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BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Mixed signals on housing but adjustment process seems likely to have further to run: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Consumer sentiment has continued to recover from the mild setback in the September quarter.
The headline index remains 1.6% below its July peak but is now more comfortably above the 100 line, indicating optimists outnumber pessimists.
Indeed, while confidence may still not be particularly strong, there has been a clear improvement over 2018.
November marks the twelfth successive month that optimists have outnumbered pessimists contrasting with the previous twelve months when pessimism held sway for 11 out of 12 reads.
This is a surprisingly strong result. In particular, respondents are much more positive about their own finances.
That is despite consistent reports around weakness in the housing markets in the major capitals and the sharp falls in the equity market through October.
Low interest rates and their prospect of being sustained for some time are clearly supporting confidence.
For example, the confidence of those respondents with a mortgage increased by 4.3%. However, on a more cautionary note, measures of spending intentions have been weaker.
Four of the five index components recorded gains in November.
Assessments of family finances showed a promising rise, the ‘finances vs a year ago’ sub-index was up 4.9% to its highest level since early 2016.
The ‘finances, next 12 months’ sub-index rose by 3.2%. Consumers in NSW showed particularly strong gains, a somewhat surprising result given the continued correction in Sydney house prices.
Consumer expectations for the economy showed an exceptional rise in longer term expectations. This was supplemented by a positive for shorter term views as well. The ‘economic outlook, next 12 months’ sub-index posted a 1.7% rise, and, at 104.3, remains well above its long run average of 90.7
. The ‘economic outlook, next 5 years’ sub-index jumped 9.7% in November to reverse most of the sharp drop seen over the previous three months.
The wider consumer mood is more buoyant but attitudes towards spending are more downbeat. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index fell 3.5% in November, to an 18 month low.
Responses to our annual question on Christmas spending plans also point to a subdued near term outlook for demand.
A third of Australians expect to spend less on gifts than they did last year, with 56% expecting to spend about the same and just 10% expecting to spend more.
The net balance of ‘more minus less’ is marginally more negative than last year, and the weakest read since 2014. Despite the higher reads in overall confidence this question suggests that we are unlikely to see any improvement over last year’s lacklustre Xmas spend.
Labour market expectations improved a touch in November.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index declined 1.9% (recall that lower reads mean more consumers expect unemployment to fall in the year ahead).
The index continues to show a clear 7.9% improvement on a year ago, led by Victoria where the state index has fallen 16.5%.
Consumer views around housing are very interesting. Buyer sentiment improved sharply but price expectations fell to new lows.
The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index posted a strong 11.8% surge to be up 16.7% on a year ago to the highest level since March 2015.
Consumers in NSW showed a particularly strong gain with a 26% jump taking the state index to a five year high and suggesting the decline in Sydney house prices is starting to generate some interest from buyers.
Because the NSW Index has been so low this stunning improvement only restores the Index to just below its long term average. The other state, Victoria, where prices have recently shown significant weakness improved only modestly with “Time to Buy” up only 3.3%.
Consumer expectations for house prices posted another fall in November.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations fell 2.3% to 99 – on a par with the weakest read we have ever seen on this index, when it was first compiled back in May 2009. T
he state detail continues to show particularly weak reads in NSW and Victoria, both hitting new lows in November with Victoria’s index down 25% over the last three months alone.
The house price corrections underway in Sydney and Melbourne now look to be firmly embedded in consumer expectations.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on December 4. The Reserve Bank recently released its November Statement on Monetary Policy. In the Statement it noted that “the Board does not see a strong case to adjust the cash rate in the near term”. That confirms that no move can be expected at that December meeting.
On the other hand the Bank raised its growth forecast for 2018 and maintained its above trend growth forecast for 2019. Furthermore, it lowered its unemployment forecast and slightly lifted its inflation forecast.
These moves could be interpreted that be Bank is more confident to raise rates during 2019. It is Westpac’s view that growth in 2019 will slow to 2.7% particularly under the weight of a weakening housing market; a contraction in construction; and a slowdown in jobs growth.
Today’s Consumer Sentiment Report portrays a more confident consumer than we had expected although this confidence is not boosting spending intentions.
Westpac continues to expect that the Reserve Bank will keep the cash rate on hold in 2018, 2019 and 2020.
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Solid lift in consumer sentiment: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank has released its November Statement on Monetary Policy and a major interest is always in any revisions to its output, employment and inflation forecasts.
In that regard, we were a little surprised that the forecast for growth in 2019 remained at 3 ¼ per cent. That is because in the Governor’s Decision Statement following the November Board meeting, he noted “the forecast for economic growth in 2018 and 2019 have been revised up a little."
The central scenario is for GDP growth to average around 3 ½ per cent over these two years”. That seemed to point to an upward revision for the 2019 forecast but instead it remains 3 ¼ per cent.
However, there is some recognition of stronger growth in the second half of 2019 since growth through to June 2020 has been revised up from 3 to 3 ¼ per cent.
It is true however, that growth in 2018 has been revised up to 3 ½ per cent from 3 ¼ per cent, although that largely reflects a higher starting point given that the previous estimate of growth to June 2018 was lifted from 3 per cent to 3.4% actual.
The forecast for 2019, nevertheless, is significantly higher than Westpac’s forecast of 2.7%.
This can largely be explained by an assessment by the RBA that there will be no marked reduction in residential construction activity in 2019 and limited reduction in 2020. Secondly, the assumption is that household consumption growth will be sustained at around the current 3 per cent pace over the forecast period.
With regards to the residential construction cycle, the assumption is that the fall in building approvals, which is already apparent and the information the RBA has received from its liaison contacts in the industry that off-the-plan sales have slowed significantly, will not significantly impact activity until beyond 2020.
This seems to overlook evidence of a clear slowdown in non high-rise approvals, the likelihood of an increase in abandonments of approvals which are already in the system, and evidence, which the RBA notes, that “lot sales for new detached housing have also declined sharply in Sydney and Melbourne since late 2017”.
Instead we assess that all of these forces point to a more significant reduction in dwelling construction in 2019 and 2020 than the RBA is expecting.
The view around consumption growth being sustained at 3 per cent looks courageous. It relies on ongoing growth in employment despite a clear slowing through 2018, the elusive pick-up in wages growth, and only a relatively small wealth effect that might be related to the ongoing falls in house prices and associated household wealth. We would expect that with the savings rate down at around 4 per cent, this wealth effect is likely to be more significant.
There has also been an increase in the forecast for underlying inflation for the year to December 2019 from 2 per cent in the August SoMP to 2 ¼ per cent. With the recent September quarter inflation report confirming that underlying inflation is running at 1 ¾ per cent, this forecast lift of ½ per cent in underlying inflation looks to be optimistic.
The justification behind this increase is around expected faster wages growth and a larger reduction in the output gap due to the above trend growth in 2018 and 2019.
The history of underlying inflation indicates that a ½ per cent jump over the course of one year seems optimistic given the correction in housing that is underway.
The RBA’s analysis of the prospects for wages growth is tentative. In fact, it points out that “wage outcomes from enterprise bargaining agreements are likely to remain a drag on overall wages growth” and also points to its liaison work which notes that “there is still spare capacity in the labour market”.
Appropriately, the SoMP spends some time referring to international evidence which indicates that Australia’s unemployment rate could fall well below historical estimates of the NAIRU “before there is a material increase in wages growth”.
This evidence refers to globalisation, technological change, and changes in relative bargaining power. Other major risks to this inflation forecast relate to ongoing competitive forces in the retail sector and “a risk of further declines in administered prices” due to government initiatives to reduce cost of living pressures.
As was indicated in the Governor’s Decision Statement, the forecast for the unemployment rate has been lowered. However, this appears to be a cautious ‘mark-to-market’ exercise.
In August, the forecast was for the unemployment rate to fall from 5 ½ per cent in December 2018 to 5 per cent by December 2020.
The new forecast is for the unemployment rate to fall from 5 per cent in December 2018 (recognising the most recent employment report) to 4 ¾ per cent in December 2020.
The discussion around the risks of a lower NAIRU would suggest only a very limited prospect of resurgent wage pressures should the unemployment rate only fall by a ¼ per cent in two years.
It is difficult for a central bank to acknowledge political risks but with a Federal election certain to be called in 2019, the uncertainty/ confidence factor associated with such an event might also have been incorporated in the forecasts.
But their assumption around employment growth, income growth and business investment seems to indicate no effect taken into account – both construction activity and machinery and equipment investment are expected to be boosted.
Conclusion
On face value, the stronger growth and higher inflation forecasts might imply that the RBA is closer to raising rates than we have expected. That may well be the case from their perspective. But if the economy evolves as we expect with a slowdown in consumer spending, a contraction in residential investment, and softer confidence partly linked to global uncertainty, the RBA’s growth and inflation forecasts are unlikely to be achieved.
Of course, it will take some time for these developments to be apparent and based on the Governor’s comment “the Board does not see a strong case to adjust the cash rate in the near-term”, we have ample time for the outlook to evolve without a surprise policy adjustment based on these forecasts.
Westpac confirms its view that the cash rate will remain on hold through 2018, 2019 and 2020.  
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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RBA wrong to rely on small wealth effect given ongoing falls in house prices: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%.
The themes that have become familiar in previous statements were repeated in this one: continuing global expansion; China slowing a little; international trade uncertainty; positive business conditions; household consumption a source of uncertainty; labour market outlook positive; wages growth low; but a gradual lift in wages growth expected; further gradual decline in the unemployment rate expected; inflation higher in 2019 and 2020; housing conditions in Sydney and Melbourne continue to ease; progress toward full employment and target inflation will be gradual.
However, the growth and unemployment forecasts have been revised. These forecasts will be confirmed in the Statement on Monetary Policy that will be released on November 9. The forecast growth rates for 2018 and 2019 have been revised up from 3.25% to 3.5%, while the 2020 forecast is for a slowdown, although the current forecast of 3% may now be revised up to 3.25%. With no real change in the wording, there is no clear justification for this upward revision, particularly for the faster expected growth in 2019.
Westpac expects growth to slow in 2019 to 2.7% reflecting a weaker consumer; a contraction in residential construction; a softening housing market; weakening global economy and some impact on business and household sentiment from the uncertainty around the federal election.
Less surprisingly, the forecast unemployment rate by 2020 has been revised down to 4 ¾% from 5%. That may be significant because 4.75% is below the generally accepted full employment rate in Australia of 5%. As such, that might imply that the Bank is more confident that significant wage pressures will be building. However, overseas evidence and measures of current slack in the labour market point to a benign wage outlook, even if the unemployment rate falls to 4.75%. Westpac expects that due to the headwinds described above for 2019, the unemployment rate is likely to rise somewhat through 2019 before drifting back by the end of 2019.
The September quarter Inflation Report printed around the Bank’s expectations and it does not appear to have changed its inflation forecasts.
Since the last board meeting, evidence around house prices and auction clearance rates point to a further slowdown in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets. Despite that, the Governor’s language around housing is all but unchanged. The slight difference is that he qualifies “credit extended to owner-occupiers” as having “eased” but remaining “robust”, compared to the  October Statement’s description as just “remains robust”.
The second paragraph in the Governor’s Statement which refers to the global economy is identical to the Statement in October, despite developments in equity markets and a surprise reduction in China’s growth rate.
In the following paragraph, which usually relates to financial conditions, the tightening we have seen is noted and equity prices are recognised to have declined. However, there appears to be no real concern about the flow through to the real economy.
We have been a little surprised that the Bank has not recognised the fall in the Australian dollar in recent months referring to it remaining “within the range it has been in the past two years on a trade-weighted basis”. Since the last Board meeting, the TWI actually lifted from 62.2 to 62.3 and yet the Governor has decided to expand on the usual commentary with “although it is currently in the lower part of that range”.
Conclusion
As discussed, we are a little surprised that the Bank has decided to lift its growth forecast in 2019 to 3.5% (0.75% above estimates of potential growth). Westpac expects growth to slow to 2.7% in 2019 (around potential). We will have to wait until the Statement on Monetary Policy on November 9 for an explanation behind this lift.
Clearly, the Bank is less concerned about the headwinds that we have outlined above. As always, while policy is forward looking, it responds to reality rather than long-term forecasts. We expect that through 2019, the Bank will be surprised about the slowdown in the Australian economy and adjust its outlook accordingly. As such, we remain comfortable with our forecast that the cash rate will remain on hold in 2019 and, indeed, in  2020.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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RBA will be surprised with slowdown in economy: Westpac's Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank Board meets next week on November 6.
The Bank will also release the November Statement on Monetary Policy on November 9.
Of course the Governor will announce that there has been no change in the cash rate.
Readers will be aware that Westpac adopted a “no change” call for both 2018 and 2019 back in September 2017. At that time markets were pricing in three hikes by end 2019.
Today, markets are pricing only the probability of around 50% of one hike by end 2019 and a full 25bps is not priced-in until end 2020.
Back in August this year, Westpac forecast that the cash rate would remain on hold in 2020.
So, while a year ago we were offering readers some forecasts that were significantly at odds with market pricing, our views today are now largely factored in by the market.
That does not mean that our views are universally supported. In the latest Bloomberg survey of economists’ forecasts, only 10 of the 24 forecasters expect the cash rate to be on hold (one is calling cuts) by end 2019. In addition, 9 of those 13 forecasters expecting rates to be rising expect multiple hikes. Note that the other three major Australian banks expect rate hikes next year.
So the case for rates on hold is certainly not a universally accepted one.
As usual we will scour the Governor’s statement next Tuesday for any hints towards a firmer tightening bias, but there is unlikely to be much to encourage these efforts.
The Statement’s themes will be the same: continuing global expansion; China slowing a little; international trade uncertainty; Australian growth to average a bit above 3% in 2018 and 2019; positive business conditions; household consumption a source of uncertainty; labour market outlook positive; wages growth low; but a gradual lift in wages growth expected; further gradual decline in the unemployment rate expected; inflation higher in 2019 and 2020; housing conditions in Sydney and Melbourne continue to ease; progress toward full employment and target inflation will be gradual.
The Statement on Monetary Policy will include an update of the Bank’s forecasts out to December 2020.
Forecasts for GDP growth are likely to be unchanged from the August Statement on Monetary Policy: 3.25% in 2018 and 2019; and 3% in 2020. These forecasts indicate above potential growth, which is generally accepted to be 2.75%.
Headline Inflation forecasts in August were 1.75% in 2018; 2.25% in 2019; and 2.25% in 2020.
With higher petrol prices than were expected in August, the RBA may raise its forecast for headline inflation in 2018 from 1.75% to 2%.
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Underlying forecasts for inflation were 1.75% in 2018; 2% in 2019; and 2.25% in 2020.
These forecasts are likely to be unchanged.
On October 31, we received the Inflation Report for the September quarter of 2018. The key underlying measures would have disappointed the RBA. The annual pace of the average of the core measures further slowed to 1.7% from the 2.0% pace in the March quarter. The six month annualised pace of the core measures is now 1.5% - the slowest pace since September 2016.
Recall that in May 2016, the then Governor Stevens was expecting 2.5% for core inflation through 2016 but revised that down to 1.5% following the release of the March quarter CPI. The Governor responded to that shock with a rate cut of 25 basis points in May and another in August.
At that time, the 6 month annualised pace of core inflation registered 1.4% through the March quarter and 1.2% through the June quarter. So momentum in inflation was indeed lower than current momentum but not by a significant margin. The longer the subdued 1.5% momentum continues, the harder it will be to justify the forecasts of 2% in 2019 and 2.25% in 2020.
One aspect of the detail within the September quarter 2018 CPI result that stood out was the sharp fall in the price pressures associated with house building. This component, which has the biggest weight in the CPI and consistently appears in the core measures, slowed from 0.8% in the June quarter to 0.1% in the September quarter.
We had a similar result for the March quarter in 2016 (0.2%) but the measure bounced back 0.9% in the June quarter as the housing market recovered through 2016 in response to the May and August rate cuts. Between March 2016 and December 2016 new lending to property investors lifted by 40% and house prices in Sydney (up 11%) and Melbourne (up 7%) both boomed in the last six months of 2016.
There will be no such recovery in 2018 or 2019. The RBA has made a clear commitment to holding the cash rate at the current level and bank lending policies continue to tighten and house prices in Sydney and Melbourne are likely to fall through 2019.
As a comparison with 2016, we note that new lending to investors has fallen by 27% over the last year and there is no sign of any relief.
It is entirely reasonable that builders in the process of constructing new residential developments in Sydney and Melbourne will find great difficulty in passing on cost increases as this particular component of the CPI has remained weak for many quarters. Supply is also likely to maintain downward pressure on rents which are another key component of the CPI.
We would not expect the RBA to incorporate such concerns in their forecasts. They will continue to forecast rising inflation out to 2020 despite the risks around housing as well as the ongoing threat to inflationary expectations as the headline rate stays well below the 2.5% target (on a calendar year basis headline inflation has been below 2% since 2014).
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The final forecast which appears in the SOMP will be for the unemployment rate.
The forecast in the August SOMP were for a gradual decline to 5.25% in December 2019 continuing to 5% in December 2020.
That was always a very awkward forecast for the RBA which is promoting the prospect of rising wage pressures particularly through 2019 and 2020.
For Australia, the “full employment” rate estimate is generally considered to be 5.0% but we have found that in other developed economies (particularly the US and UK) the full employment rate is lower in the current cycle than that historically. In the US, the unemployment rate has fallen to 3.7% (well below the previously accepted full employment rate of 4.75%) yet wage pressures are only just beginning to emerge, (the Employment Cost Index has lifted by 2.8% in the year to September).
It seems highly unlikely that in this current world of increasingly rapid technological change; globalisation; risk aversion of employees; low inflationary expectations and low trade union membership that Australia’s full employment rate is 5%.
With the current print (September) on the unemployment rate now at 5.0% (compared to 5.5% in the August SOMP) the RBA is expected to lower its 2020 unemployment forecast to 4.75%.
Note that the RBA use the three month average of the seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment rate estimate, which is currently 5.2%, as their latest read. That recognises the volatility in monthly estimates and the potential for the recent sharp fall in the unemployment rate to reverse somewhat over the next few months. Abstracting from the short-term particulars, the core profile of the forecast will be consistent with the key theme of a “gradual decline in the unemployment rate”.
In contrast, Westpac’s forecast reflects a likely slowdown in jobs growth in 2019 with the unemployment rate ticking up to 5.3% through 2019 before settling back at 5.0% by end year. In 2020 we would broadly concur with a 4.75% unemployment forecast by end 2020 although would not see that level as full employment.
Note that the August SOMP discussed the dynamic around the wealth effect as a risk but not a central theme driving the forecasts.
“Recent declines in national housing prices have been gradual and follow several years of very strong growth. Accordingly, there is no evidence that moderate housing price declines have weighed on household consumption to date. Nevertheless, housing assets account for around 55 per cent of total household assets, so lower housing prices could lead to lower consumption growth than is currently forecast. Although the earlier gains in national housing wealth may not have encouraged much additional consumption, it is possible that the consumption decisions of highly indebted and/or credit-constrained households could be more sensitive to declines in housing prices than to the previous increases.”
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We expect this issue to remain a risk in the November SOMP but not a factor incorporated into the forecasts.
We view that risk as being much more likely and a central component behind our growth forecasts.
Westpac expects growth in 2019 to slow from 3.3% in 2018 to 2.75% in 2019.
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BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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RBA will stick to positive forecasts but risks are mounting: Bill Evans

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/broadbeach-qld-4218">Broadbeach</a> offers plenty of reasons to live vertically, but moving from a substantial family home into an apartment can expose the compromises of high-density living. Privacy, room for guests and usable living space tend to matter more when an apartment is intended as a permanent home rather than an occasional coastal base.

A typical residential floor at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-eveleigh-broadbeach-7-9-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Eveleigh</a>, on Surf Parade,&nbsp;contains just four apartments. The 94-residence development by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hirsch-faigen">Hirsch &amp; Faigen</a> is predominantly made up of expansive three-bedroom homes, with a limited collection of half-floor penthouses above.

Across the apartment floors, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> has used the relatively limited number of residences to give each home greater access to natural light and outlook. Living spaces extend towards full-height glazing, while a series of bay windows frame selected views across the Pacific Ocean, city and hinterland rather than treating the building edge as a continuous wall of glass.

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[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360965]

“The apartment floors deliver a collection of homes that embrace controlled outlook via a series of bay windows deliberately framing moments of view,” Rothelowman Director Kim Lowman said.

From outside, those projecting forms contribute to the tower’s faceted profile. Strong horizontal and vertical elements establish its proportions, while the changing position of the sun alters the light, shadow and reflection across the façade throughout the day.

The same attention moves inside the apartments, where the material palette combines warm timber, natural stone, metallic detailing and softer curved forms. Kitchens sit within the main living zone, with stone island benches, integrated joinery and European appliances, before the living areas extend towards the glazing and the outlook.

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[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360981]

Three genuine bedrooms provide room to accommodate family and guests, while two secure car spaces and storage address some of the practical considerations that can become more noticeable when moving from a larger home. Feedback from the display suite has centred on the warmth and restraint of the interiors, with buyers commenting that the residences feel like homes rather than conventional coastal apartments.

A limited collection of half-floor penthouses occupies the upper levels, increasing the scale of the living spaces and adding private balconies and elevated finishes. From this position, the outlook extends between the ocean and hinterland.

Outside the private residences, The Eveleigh separates its shared spaces between the podium and rooftop. The podium is centred on wellness, with subtropical landscaping surrounding a swimming pool and pool terrace, yoga garden, private gymnasium, sauna and hot and cold plunge facilities. Landscaped retreats and pavilions provide additional places to sit away from the main recreation areas.

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[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360966]

Higher in the building, a rooftop pavilion and private dining suite sit alongside resident lounge, barbecue and outdoor dining areas, opening towards panoramic views across the ocean, city and hinterland.

“Buyers are no longer just looking for an apartment, but a lifestyle where they can relax, reset, and enjoy a balanced way of living,” Hirsch &amp; Faigen Director of Sales Matt George said.

Interest to date has come from established owner-occupiers and interstate lifestyle purchasers, including buyers planning a future move to the Gold Coast. Many are coming from larger homes and want to reduce ongoing maintenance without giving up space for family and guests, privacy, two car spaces or the ability to entertain at home.

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[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360969]

Much of that daily life can also take place beyond the building without requiring a drive. Kurrawa Beach and Pratten Park are an easy walk from Surf Parade, while Pacific Fair, Oracle Boulevard, The Oasis, restaurants, cafés, entertainment and public transport are also within walking distance.

The Eveleigh is Hirsch &amp; Faigen's fourth Gold Coast development since entering the market in 2021, following The Hemingway at Palm Beach, The Emerson at Kirra and Yves at Mermaid Beach. Each of the preceding projects sold out before completion.

“Broadbeach had been on our radar throughout our time operating on the Gold Coast,” the developer said. “Following our projects in Palm Beach, Kirra and Mermaid Beach, Broadbeach represented the natural next step for the business.”

The Surf Parade site brought together proximity to the beach, protected coastal outlooks and walkability to dining, shopping and recreation. Hirsch &amp; Faigen also identified the street as an emerging premium residential address, with enough separation from Broadbeach's busier destinations to retain a quieter environment at home.

The Eveleigh is now under construction by Maxcon, with completion forecast for mid-2028. Three-bedroom residences are currently available from $2.87 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149670]

Joel Robinson

The Eveleigh brings house-like apartments to Broadbeach

A long-stalled Campbelltown development site is back in play, with new plans for 139 apartments set to supersede a mixed-use scheme approved almost a decade ago but never built.

The new proposal for 28 Cordeaux Street would deliver 116 market and 23 affordable apartments in a part 14-storey building, bringing a substantial new project into a Campbelltown market where new apartment supply remains limited.

Plans have been filed over the 3,092 sqm corner site at Moore-Oxley Street, around 600 metres from Campbelltown Railway Station and the city-centre retail core.

The site already carries a mixed-use residential approval dating to 2016. Doroch Architects has now been engaged on a larger replacement scheme, which is progressing as a State Significant Development Application following a Housing Delivery Authority determination in August 2025.

The apartment mix comprises 39 one-bedroom, 72 two-bedroom and 28 three-bedroom residences. Two-bedroom apartments make up just over half of the project, while three-bedroom homes account for 20 per cent.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="136dd5b9-3791-4da6-9e31-76f533f5b4de" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da2.png?VersionId=LgOSy9nwf5u.MGswBBwaGGxuX8QpHSl_" />

Of the 139 apartments, 23 will be delivered as affordable housing under the in-fill affordable housing provisions of the Housing SEPP. The affordable component represents 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area and will be managed by a registered Community Housing Provider.

Doroch has sought to break the scale of the building into two distinct elements, with a masonry podium of around four storeys establishing the street edge before the residential tower steps back above.

The corner position has shaped that approach. Cordeaux Street faces toward the commercial and civic centre, while Moore-Oxley Street leads into the lower-scale residential neighbourhood to the south, and the design verification report describes the site as "bridging the commercial core to the north and established residential areas to the south."

The podium will be expressed predominantly in face brick, while the upper levels shift to brushed and grooved concrete cladding with darker metal detailing. Recessed sections, deep balcony edges and landscaping break down the upper form, with an approximately 11.8-metre setback to the northern boundary addressing the adjoining St Peters Anglican School.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c8b3d2d3-c561-4bfc-a5d9-a68c0c10dac1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da1.png?VersionId=AeAEyJU02Gk2k5noUj2StziCvdQ7fW4B" />

Campbelltown has been starved of new residential developments in the last decade.

The only other notable development set to come to market this year is ALAND's Queen Square, a mixed-use precinct on over two hectares that will comprise apartments above a vibrant ground-level retail and hospitality dining precinct.

First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site

First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches apartments for low-rise Deception Bay

Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

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Bill Evans

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