Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Westpac

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The Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer House Price Expectations Index has continued to firm, rising a further 7.5 percent since October, according to the Red Book January 2017 report.
At 149.6 the index is back near the highs of early 2015.
A strong majority of consumers nationally expect prices to rise over the next 12 months with 13.2 percent predicting double digit growth and 49.7 percent expecting single digit increases. Just 26.2 percent expect prices to hold with 10.9 percent predicting price declines.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/03/wes-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/03/wes-3.jpg" alt="">
Price measures are now giving a more consistent messages on actual price growth with all showing a lift and two of the four major measures suggesting gains tracking at a 10 percent annual pace over the second half 2016.
Consumers in NSW and Victoria remain considerably more bullish on price growth. The biggest lift in expectations over the last three months has been in WA (+18.7 percent) followed by NSW (+7.2 percent).
While the latter looks to be responding to a renewed quickening in price growth, the shift in expectations in WA looks more tentative.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/03/wes-4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/03/wes-4.jpg" alt=""> 
Price expectations have been much weaker in WA as actual prices out west have recorded persistent declines.
Although WA consumers now look to be anticipating a stabilisation, similar expectations in mid 2016 proved premature and the latest firming has yet to be reflected in any moderation in actual price declines.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Buyers expect property prices to keep rising in 2017: Westpac

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The economic growth forecasts have undergone a number of revisions to reflect two major surprises since May, namely: conditions across the broader economy are weaker than anticipated; and commodity prices have spiked temporarily. The economic growth forecasts are optimistic in our view. Real GDP growth of 2.0% for 2016/17, downgraded from 2.50%, requires a quick return to solid growth, averaging 0.8% per quarter for the rest of the year. In addition, the medium-term economic projections err on the optimistic side. From 2018/19 to 2022/23 real GDP growth is assumed to be 3.0% each year, a little faster than potential, judged to be 2.75%. The thinking is that spare capacity is gradually absorbed, closing the output gap by the end of 2022/23. The terms of trade are projected to remain flat at around its 2005 level from 2019/20. Nominal GDP growth is assumed to be 5.50% over the long-run (described in a Treasury working paper in 2014 but not specifically mentioned in MYEFO). <a href="/images/2016/12/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-19%20at%204.40.36%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/12/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-19%20at%204.40.36%20pm.jpg" alt=""> 1) The real GDP growth profile for the four years 2016/17 to 2019/20 is: 2.0% (downgraded by 0.50%); 2.75% (downgraded by 0.25%); 3.0% and 3.0%. The Australian economy began the 2016/17 financial year on a weak note, with output contracting by 0.5%, the sharpest quarterly decline since the GFC. 2) Nominal GDP growth profile is: 5.75% (upgraded by 1.50%); 3.75% (downgraded by 1.25%); 4.25% (downgraded by 0.75%); and 4.50% (downgraded by 0.50%). Notably, the size of the nominal economy is 1.0% smaller at the end of 2019/20 than assumed at budget time. Inflation and incomes are softer than anticipated reflecting the weaker conditions across the broader economy. 3) The terms of trade jumps a forecast 14% in 2016/17 (upgraded from 1.25%) on the spike in commodity prices, followed by a 3.75% decline in 2017/18 (downgraded from 0%) as commodity prices retreat to more sustainable levels. There is considerable uncertainty around the timing / speed of commodity price adjustments. The iron ore price is assumed to decline from its recent average of US$68 per tonne FOB through the March and June quarters of 2017 to reach $55 in September 2017. The budget assumed a year average price of $55. The coking coal price is assumed to be US$200 per tonne FOB in line with the December quarter contract price, before declining through the September and December quarters of 2017 to $120 in March 2018. The Budget year average price was $91. Thermal coal prices are assumed to remain at $62 per tonne FOB, up from $52 at budget time. 4) Labour market forecasts have been downgraded to reflect the soft start to the 2016/17 year. Employment growth has been lowered by 0.5% this year and 0.25% next year, while wages growth has been lowered by 0.25% this year and next. See table 2 below for details. <a href="/images/2016/12/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-19%20at%204.40.47%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/12/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-19%20at%204.40.47%20pm.jpg" alt=""> The 2016/17 budget deficit forecast is effectively unchanged from that in May, while the cumulative deficit for the four years to 2019/20 has deteriorated by $10.3 billion (with net savings of $2.5 billion partially offsetting $12.8 billion in slippage due to the weaker forecasts). The medium-term projections have the budget returning to surplus in 2020/21, as assumed in May, although the size of the surplus has been trimmed from 0.2% of GDP to 0.1% of GDP. Policy decisions had little net impact on the budget position, with a net saving of $2.5 billion, back-loaded over the two out years. Revisions to the economic growth forecasts (including parameter variations more generally) cost the budget $12.8 billion over the four years, including a saving of $0.5 billion in the current year. Receipts are $30.5 billion lower than at Budget time over the four years, partially offset by a $16.5 billion undershoot on payments. Critically, as noted above, the size of the nominal economy at end 2019/20 is 1.0% smaller than assumed at Budget time. Of the $30.5 billion hit to receipts over the four years, key impacts include: individual income tax collections, down $18.3 billion due to weaker wage and employment outlook; company tax down $5.9 billion with weaker non-mining corporate profits only partially offset by higher mining profits from stronger commodity prices over 2016/17; and lower GST collections, down $5.3 billion.
On the payment side, weaker wages growth and lower inflation help to contain expenditure growth. <a href="/images/2016/12/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-19%20at%204.40.58%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/12/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-19%20at%204.40.58%20pm.jpg" alt="">
Bill Evans is chief economist with Westpac.
Andrew Hanlan is senior economist with Westpac.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Surplus by 2020/21 on track, but at an estimated 0.1% GDP: Bill Evans and Andrew Hanlan

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Westpac are set to increase interest rates for foreign mortgage customers, writes the Australian Financial Review.
The bank is reported to be introducing a new loan category next month, a 'Non-Resident Reference Rate'.
Off-shore based customers who currently have loans with the bank will have to pay a 0.5% higher standard variable rate.
A Westpac spokesperson told the Australian Financial Review that the higher rates took into account the bank's "risk settings, the economic landscape, and expected changes in capital requirements for that segment of the mortgage market”. 
The decision comes after a long crackdown by the major banks on foreign lending.
Westpac announced, as of April 26. it would no longer loan money to foreign home buyers seeking to purchase residential property.
The bank has not settled any new mortgages from offshore-based clients since then.
Other major banks such as NAB and ANZ have also introduced similar policies halting new loans to foreign buyers.
Westpac has also dropped its loan to valuation ratios (LVRs) from 80% to 70% for local applications that include foreign income.
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Major bank continues foreign loan clampdown

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Owner occupier finance approvals came in better than expected for September, with the detail a little softer but separate figures on the value of investor finance loans on the strong side.
The number of owner occupier approvals rose 1.6%, well above the market expectations of a 1.6% fall. Industry data on bank loans had been soft in the month.
The gain was led by strong refi activity – ex refi loans were up just 0.5% and down in value terms (–0.8%mth) implying average loan size was quite a bit smaller.
Other detail showed a flat month for construction-related lending.
By state, there were solid gains for total owner occupier loans in NSW, Vic, Qld and SA with a decline in WA.
The 4.6% rise in the value of loans to investors is notable as it means the total value of housing finance loans is up in the month with a clear firming since the recent low in April – that in turn suggests other data pointing to a firming in housing market conditions is genuine and that the bulk of the lift is coming from domestic investor activity. Details 
 Owner–occupiers (no.)   1.6% mth, –3.7%yr    – ex-financing (no.)       0.5% mth, –7.8%yr                      
Construction of dwellings (no.)      –0.8% mth, –5.2%yr       Purchase of newly built dwellings (no.)   5.9%mth, 5.7%yr                            
Value of loans:             
Owner-occupiers ($bn)   0.9%mth, –5.4%yr     Investors ($bn)      4.6% mth, 9.6%yr           Total ($bn)              2.3% mth, –0.2%yr         Total ex refi ($bn)   1.8% mth, –1%yr      
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Owner occupier finance approvals better than expected in September: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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GUEST OBSERVER
Retailers enjoyed a rare gain in August, sales lifting 0.4 percent in the month, the result coming in a touch above Westpac’s 0.3 percent forecast and the consensus expectation of a 0.2 percent gain.
While a win vs expectations and the best monthly gain since October last year, that is not saying much – ‘par’ for retail sales is about 0.5 percent a month.
Annual sales growth is still running at an insipid 2.8%yr with trend sales growth tracking an even poorer 1.7 percent annualised pace.
The detail was in line with expectations as well. As mentioned in our preview, July sales were ‘held back’ by an abnormally large 5.8% fall for department stores that reflected the earlier timing of winter sales. Sales in this category rebounded 3.5 percent in August – ‘normalising’ but still to a weak underlying trend reflecting the specific challenges facing this type of retailing.
Across the other categories: food was up 0.3 percent and household goods up 0.2 percent (another disappointing read given the current boom in housing construction that should be boosting spending in housing related categories).
Both clothing (–0.4 percent/mth) and ‘other’ retail (–0.6 percent/mth) had a soft August. However cafes and restaurants saw another solid gain up 1.2 percent/mth following a 1.4 percent rise in July.
By state, better gains for NSW (0.5 percent), Vic (0.7 percent), Qld (0.7 percent) were partially offset by a 0.5 percent fall in WA.
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Australian retail sales growth still insipid: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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Dwelling approvals outstripped expectations again in August, with a small 1.8 percent pull back coming well above the consensus expectation of a more material 6 percent decline and a slight upward revision to July's big jump.
<a href="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%204.56.55%20PM.jpg">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%204.56.55%20PM.jpg" alt=""> The number of approvals in July was the second highest month on record. Even with a dip, the August reading is still the fourth highest month on record with approvals now up 10.1 percent/yr.
<a href="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%204.57.00%20PM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%204.57.00%20PM.jpg" alt=""> Expectations for a pull back centred on high rise approvals. This segment saw a spectacular 39.8 percent jump in July that was expected to largely reverse in August. Approvals instead held up much better than expected with our estimates pointing to about a 10 percent drop in seasonally adjusted terms in the month. This still leaves high rise approvals 25 percent above their June level.
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The rest of the detail showed mixed moves. The small ‘low-mid rise’ segment saw a solid 7.8 percent gain in the month but the larger and more stable detached house approvals segment recorded a 1.3 percent dip. Combined, approvals ex high rise were up slightly, about 1.2 percent/mth but down 4.1 percent/yr. To the extent that this measure is more reflective of underlying conditions it is pointing to a modest trend decline running at about 1-1.5 percent a month.
<a href="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%204.57.25%20PM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%204.57.25%20PM.jpg" alt=""> By state, approvals dipped 2.3 percent in NSW but were up slightly in Vic and Qld with big monthly declines coming in WA and SA. Notably, within the NSW estimates ‘unit’ approvals were still the second highest monthly level on record.
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The value of renovation approvals also softened in August, down 0.9%mth, but up slightly on a year ago (+1.2%). Both moves are fairly small for what is typically a much more volatile monthly series.
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The value of non residential building approvals recorded a large 24.3 percent fall in August to be down 12.9 percent/yr. Monthly reads have been extremely choppy over the last year but approvals appear to be tracking and underlying downtrend. Falls in public sector work, private accommodation, and private sector education, health and office approvals drove the August decline.
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<img src="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%204.57.49%20PM.jpg" alt="">
 Overall, the continued high level of dwelling approvals points to a dwelling construction upturn holding up stronger for longer. Both tightening lending conditions and a surge in new apartment supply have had little or no impact to date but are expected to rein in 'high rise' approvals over the next year. But even allowing for a potentially sharp reversal lower in coming months, the pipeline of dwellings under construction is set to continue expanding strongly throughout the rest of 2016 and is likely to continue rising in the first half of 2017.
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

High rise boom continues: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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With the major events of ‘Brexit’ and prolonged election uncertainty it is not surprising to see a fall in the Index. In fact, given these developments, this fall appears to be surprisingly modest. 
The survey was conducted over the period July 4 to July 7. 
By the time of the survey market volatility associated with ‘Brexit’ had largely settled down and media commentary was, correctly in my view, concentrating on the implications for the UK economy rather than the initial reaction which speculated on some disastrous contagion for the whole of Europe. 
However concerns would have lingered for many respondents given the blanket publicity which the ‘Brexit’ development received. 
On the other hand election uncertainty persisted throughout most of the survey period. 
Respondents would have been particularly unnerved about the prospect of an inconclusive election result given the experience during the last ‘hung’ Parliament in 2010 to 2013. 
Consequently, to see the Index fall by only 3%, back to its level of March 2016 and still 4.2% above its April level is encouraging. 
Since the end of the survey period we have seen some welcome political certainty with the prospect of a hung Parliament avoided. It is reasonable to speculate that had the survey been conducted over the last few days the results would have been more positive. 
Furthermore, we expect the Reserve Bank to move to cut rates again following its meeting on August 2. 
Following the cut in May the Index surged by 8.5% putting it firmly in positive territory above 100, indicating optimists outnumber pessimists. With 
the Index currently poised only slightly below 100 we can be reasonably confident that the Index will be back above a 100 next month despite having to negotiate two major shocks in ‘Brexit’ and election uncertainty. 
With a 3% fall in the overall Index it is not surprising that respondents were a little less confident around the labour market. 
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Unemployment Expectations rose 1.9% in July but the Index is still 4% below its level in April and, most importantly, 8.0% below its level of a year ago. 
Our assessment of that Index is that it is indicating a steady improvement in the labour market. 
Reflecting market volatility and political uncertainty, both components of the Index that relate to households’ assessments of their own finances were weaker. The sub-index tracking assessments of ‘family finances compared to a year ago’ fell by 
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5.2% while the ‘family finances over the next 12 months’ sub- index fell by 2.7%. 
Concerns about the short term economic outlook intensified with the component ‘economic conditions over the next 12 months’ falling by 6.1% although the 5 year outlook was steady. 
The sub-index tracking vies on ‘time to buy a major household item’ fell by 1.5%. 
Over the last 12 months the overall Index has increased by a healthy 7.4%. However that improvement has been dominated by the ‘economic outlook’ components which have risen by nearly 20% on average whereas the ‘family finances’ components have only improved by an average of 2.4%. Respondents may be buoyed by reports of overall improving economic conditions but they are not feeling the same improvement in their own financial position, pointing to a less encouraging basis for boosting consumer spending than may be implied by the overall Index. 
Signals in the housing market were mixed. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index fell by 1.8% to 101.8. 
This Index has been markedly weaker since the middle of last year although there has been no sign of further deterioration in 2016. 
On the other hand respondents are regaining their confidence in the outlook for prices. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations lifted by 4.3% in July to its highest level since August last year and up around 17.3% on the average of the last quarter of last year. 
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on August 2. We expect that it will decide to further reduce the overnight cash rate to 1.5%. 
This will follow the decision to lower rates by 0.25% at its Board meeting in May. 
Westpac had not expected that move because we underestimated the significance which the Board had read into the March quarter inflation report. On the basis of that report the Board lowered its forecasts of underlying inflation in 2016 from 2.5% to 1.5% and in 2017 from 2.5% to 2.0% – the bottom of the Bank’s target range.
We do not believe that it would have made such significant changes to its assessment of the inflation outlook without being prepared to cut rates further. Indeed its own forecast of 2% in 2017 incorporated the market forecast of a further rate cut.
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With the AUD lifting above USD 0.76 and the inflation target at risk it seems a sensible policy option to cut rates further. 
However we are mindful that despite cutting rates the Board did not lower its growth forecasts indicating that the motivation behind the May decision was entirely around the need to credibly achieve the inflation target over the forecast period. Rigid adherence to that policy in future might be questioned particularly, as hinted at in this survey, if the rate cuts spill over into excessive exuberance in asset markets. Hence we expect that this cut will, most likely, be the last in the current easing cycle. 
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Bill Evans is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Consumer sentiment falls on Brexit and election concerns: Westpac's Bill Evans

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Westpac is cutting lending to self-managed super funds for residential investment properties, according to the Australian Financial Review.
The bank has cut maximum loan-to-value ratios from 80 to 70% and tightened other lending criteria.
Super fund borrowing has increased from less than $500 million to more than $9 billion, the Australian Taxation Office says over the past five years.
The recent financial system inquiry warned that current growth rates could create a systemic risk in the future, even though total borrowing was small compared to the overall economy.
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SMSF borrowing gets tougher for Westpac customers

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Property pundits are most aggressive on pricing in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, with those in Western Australia expecting property prices to decline.
According to the Westpac Red Book July 2015, Australians believe price increases over the next year, as noted in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer House Price Expectations Index, which rose 8.2% in Jul to 145.9.
A variation in June, where the index fell slightly to 134.9, is believed to be a seasonal decline.
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A weak buyer sentiment and strong price outlook was reported in NSW and Victoria and a strong sentiment and strong price outlook felt in Qld and SA. (Qld, SA)
 
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mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

Bullish property market in NSW, Vic and QLD

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<div class="column">Westpac Economics research for July has found housing sentiment falling to the first sub-100 level since June 2010.</div>
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Respondents to the monthly Red Book survey question on whether or not now was the time to buy fell 15.4% to 94.8. 
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<div class="column">The report, however did note 5-8ppts of the July fall may be seasonal.</div>
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<div class="column">Allowing for a seasonal adjustments, the index reading of 94.8 is well under the average of 125.</div>
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<div class="column">The survey found states with a weak buyer sentiment and strong price outlook are Victoria and New South Wales, weak sentiment and weak price outlook in Western Australia and strong sentiment and strong price outlook in Queensland and South Australia.</div>
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