ANZ believes the Reserve Bank is in no rush to move again.

Following the release of the May Monetary Policy Board Minutes, ANZ has taken the view that the RBA is now firmly in a holding pattern, with the cumulative impact of previous rate hikes giving the Board scope to assess how the economy evolves from here.

That positioning, in ANZ’s view, makes a June rate hike unlikely.

The bank continues to expect the cash rate to remain unchanged at 4.35 per cent for an extended period, with the RBA adopting what is effectively a wait-and-see approach.

The Minutes point to a Board that sees financial conditions as already restrictive, but without a clear read on just how restrictive they are. That uncertainty has shifted the focus away from immediate policy action and toward monitoring both domestic conditions and global developments, particularly the conflict in the Middle East.

As ANZ interprets it, the Board is deliberately avoiding strong forward guidance.

Instead, it is allowing itself flexibility, acknowledging that monetary policy has limited ability to influence the near-term trajectory of inflation, while also recognising that economic growth is likely to remain below potential for some time.

Despite that pause in momentum, ANZ notes that the Board still carries a tightening bias.

The Minutes reveal that, in weighing up its decision, the Board seriously considered another 25 basis point increase. The key debate centred on the trade-off between inflation and activity, particularly in the context of global uncertainty.

Ultimately, most members leaned toward the inflation side of that equation.

Underlying inflation is still expected to remain above target for an extended period, regardless of how external risks evolve. That has led to a view within the Board that the risks to its inflation objective have increased, and that the current cash rate may not be sufficiently restrictive to fully contain those pressures.

That’s important.

While the decision, for now, is to hold, the underlying tone of the Minutes suggests the door to further tightening has not been closed.

ANZ also points to commentary from Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter, who highlighted the risk that inflation could pass through the economy more quickly and broadly than in previous cycles. Both Hunter and a majority of the Board expressed concern that inflation expectations could become less anchored after such a prolonged period above target.

That combination, persistent inflation and the risk of expectations shifting, is what continues to underpin the RBA’s cautious stance.

However, where ANZ diverges from the RBA is on the outlook for activity.

The Board appears relatively comfortable with current spending patterns, effectively downplaying recent declines in business and consumer sentiment. It notes that sentiment has historically been only weakly correlated with actual spending, and that feedback from its liaison program has not yet pointed to a meaningful slowdown in consumption.

ANZ is less convinced.

The bank believes the link between household disposable income, sentiment and spending is more direct than the RBA is currently acknowledging. With inflation continuing to erode real incomes, ANZ expects household spending to soften more materially than the central bank is forecasting.

That divergence matters because it shifts the balance of risk.

If activity weakens more than expected, the trade-off between inflation and growth changes. In ANZ’s view, that would reduce the need for further tightening and reinforce the case for the RBA to remain on hold.

It also suggests that the current policy setting may already be doing more work than the Board fully appreciates.

The broader takeaway from ANZ’s interpretation is that the RBA is walking a narrow path.

On one side sits the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected. On the other is the growing pressure on households and the potential for a sharper slowdown in activity.

For now, the Board is choosing to wait.

But it is a pause that still carries an underlying tightening bias, rather than a clear pivot toward easing.

In practical terms, that leaves the cash rate anchored at 4.35 per cent for the foreseeable future, with the next move still uncertain.

For borrowers, it reinforces the reality that relief is not imminent.

And for the broader economy, it highlights the delicate balance the RBA is trying to strike, between bringing inflation back to target and avoiding an unnecessarily sharp slowdown in growth.

According to ANZ, it is a balance that is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.

Joel Robinson

RBA to hold rates for "prolonged period" rather than hikes: ANZ

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/venturecrowd-property-projects">VentureCrowd</a> is down to the final Canopy Villa release at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara, as construction continues on the 59-residence gated community positioned above 100 hectares of natural savanna on the Gold Coast.

The remaining Canopy Villa forms part of one of four collections within the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>-designed community and has attracted interest from buyers seeking larger-format homes that combine privacy, security and low-maintenance living. Positioned within a private cul-de-sac and facing a protected black she oak forest, the four-bedroom villa includes a large private outdoor area suited to pet owners and families wanting more flexible space.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/cumulus-grand-villas-carrara-17-baltimore-court-carrara-qld-4211">Cumulus Grand Villas</a>, located at 17 Baltimore Court, comprises a mix of three and four-bedroom villas across the Skyline, Canopy, Savanna and Broadview collections. Prices currently range from $1.455 million to $1.895 million, with the final Canopy Villa priced from $1.825 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360477]

The Canopy Collection villas offer four bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and approximately 245 sqm of internal space, alongside double garages and landscaped private areas. Expansive glazing, open-plan living spaces and private balconies have been designed to maximise natural light and outlooks toward the surrounding savanna landscape.

Construction is now underway across the fully funded development, which VentureCrowd says has become an increasingly important consideration for buyers assessing off-the-plan opportunities on the Gold Coast. The project is being delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/devcon">Devcon Property Group</a>, which has operated in South East Queensland since 1993 and delivered more than 1,000 homes across the region.

VentureCrowd Director of Property David Whitting previously said the project responds to changing buyer priorities in the prestige Gold Coast market.

“Flexible floorplans have proven particularly relevant for purchasers aged between 40 and 65, including next home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Whitting said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360505]

The buyer profile at Cumulus has reflected that shift toward owner-occupier-driven demand. Stuart Towns and Tracey Loynes recently purchased a Canopy Villa, drawn to both the lifestyle offering and the flexibility the home provided for their next stage of living together.

The couple, who met three years ago, sold their Robina home earlier this year after identifying what they saw as strong long-term investment potential at Cumulus while remaining within the same Gold Coast market. The villa’s private backyard was a major drawcard for their dog Luna, while proximity to golf courses including Emerald Lakes also aligned with their lifestyle interests.

Beyond the residences themselves, the community has been planned around shared lifestyle and recreation amenities. The Infinity Terrace will include a 20-metre heated pool, barbecue facilities, alfresco dining spaces and elevated retreat areas overlooking the surrounding landscape. Walking trails, a private nature reserve, orchard and herb garden are also integrated into the masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360473]

BDA Architecture Director Darren Greenaway said the design approach was heavily influenced by the site’s outlook and secluded setting.

The practice sought to create what Greenaway described as a “little piece of paradise,” drawing inspiration from the elevated views, surrounding greenery and quiet location.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/carrara-qld-4211">Carrara</a> continues to attract buyers seeking larger homes within proximity to the coast but without direct beachfront pricing. Cumulus sits within easy reach of Broadbeach, Pacific Fair, Robina Town Centre and the M1, providing connections north to Brisbane and south toward the Gold Coast Airport and northern New South Wales.

The first stage of Cumulus Grand Villas is targeting completion in 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135663]

VentureCrowd nears sell-out of Canopy Collection at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara

Waverley Council has made a call that many councils have been reluctant to make publicly. Growth is coming, regardless of who controls it.

The release of the Bondi Junction Vision and Master Plan is less about whether the Eastern Suburbs’ primary centre will change, and more about how that change is shaped, funded, and ultimately experienced on the ground. Waverley Council has released a 100-page plan which is effectively the first comprehensive blueprint for Bondi Junction in over two decades, and in doing so, signals a clear shift in how councils are positioning themselves in the current planning environment.

For the past 18 months, the conversation across New South Wales has been dominated by the State Government’s Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms and the emergence of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway. Both have created faster, more centralised avenues for development approvals, particularly in well-located, infrastructure-rich areas like Bondi Junction.

Waverley Council’s response has been to move early, and decisively.

Rather than react to individual proposals as they come through the HDA or broader State-led reforms, Council has sought to establish a clear, place-based framework that sets the terms for how Bondi Junction evolves. The underlying position is relatively straightforward: if densification is inevitable, it should be tied to infrastructure, public domain improvements, and a cohesive vision for the centre, not delivered piecemeal through ad hoc applications.

<img alt="bondi junction" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7f1f729c-ed99-4c6c-bf87-ffbce6991941" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-19%20at%209.58.16%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ULX4OlXKjeJ5BvNCNGL86evgXCjCfMih" />

At its core, the document is attempting to reposition Bondi Junction from what it largely functions as today, a transport interchange anchored by a major retail centre, into something far more layered. The ambition is to transform it into what the plan describes as the “civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East,” a place that is active beyond commuting hours and capable of supporting a broader mix of uses, experiences and communities.

That repositioning is built around four key ambitions.

The first is to create a true destination. Bondi Junction already attracts significant foot traffic, with more than 86,000 daily transport users and millions of annual retail visits, but much of that activity is transient. People pass through, rather than stay.

The Master Plan seeks to change that dynamic. It leans heavily into the idea of an “18-hour economy,” extending activity well beyond traditional retail hours through dining, cultural programming, events, and a more active night-time offering. This is not just about adding more hospitality venues, but about fundamentally shifting how the centre operates, from a daytime shopping destination to a place that functions across the full span of the day and into the evening.

Oxford Street Mall sits at the centre of that shift.

Long seen as underperforming relative to its potential, the Mall is identified as one of the key catalyst projects in the plan. It is to be reimagined as a day-to-night spine, combining retail, dining, wellness and cultural uses in a way that creates a continuous flow of activity. Outdoor dining, rooftop venues, laneway activation and a curated events program are all part of the strategy, alongside significant public domain upgrades that aim to improve comfort, safety and usability.

&nbsp;

The second ambition is to transform Bondi Junction into a world-class interchange.

Despite being one of the most heavily used transport nodes in Sydney, the current experience is fragmented. Connections between the station, Westfield, Oxford Street Mall and surrounding streets are often unclear, and major roads create physical barriers that disrupt pedestrian movement.

The Master Plan proposes a more seamless, people-focused network. That includes clearer pedestrian links, improved wayfinding, better integration between transport modes, and a rethinking of how arrival into the centre is experienced. The aim is to shift the perception of Bondi Junction from a place people move through, to a place they arrive in.

The third ambition focuses on greening and open space.

One of the more consistent pieces of community feedback throughout the Vision phase was the need for more greenery, better public spaces, and a more comfortable urban environment. Despite being surrounded by major parks, Bondi Junction itself has relatively limited accessible open space, with much of the public realm dominated by hard surfaces and traffic infrastructure.

The plan responds with a network of new and upgraded public spaces, increased tree canopy, and what it terms the “Parkline,” a green link connecting Waverley Park through to Centennial Park. This is not just about aesthetics. It is about addressing heat, improving liveability, and ensuring that increased density is matched by access to high-quality outdoor space.

The fourth ambition is perhaps the most important from a development perspective: growth that gives back.

Bondi Junction is already the primary location for new housing supply in the Waverley LGA, and that is expected to continue. The area carries a target of 2,400 new dwellings by 2029, with further growth projected beyond that as demand for well-located housing continues to rise. The Master Plan does not seek to limit that growth. Instead, it attempts to shape it.

New housing is to be concentrated around transport, with stepped building heights designed to protect the character of surrounding neighbourhoods. At the same time, the plan introduces a more explicit link between development uplift and public benefit. This is where value capture becomes central.

The document outlines a framework where increased development potential is tied to contributions that fund public domain improvements, community infrastructure, open space, and affordable housing. It is an approach that recognises that much of the transformation of Bondi Junction will be delivered by the private sector, but seeks to ensure that the benefits of that growth are shared more broadly. The Civic Precinct is a key part of that equation.

Leveraging Council-owned land, the plan proposes a consolidated civic and cultural hub centred around Ebley Street. This would include new community facilities, cultural spaces, and potentially a new Council Chambers, creating a focal point for civic life that currently does not exist in Bondi Junction at scale.

It is one of several catalyst projects identified in the Master Plan, alongside the Oxford Street Mall transformation. These projects are intended to anchor change, acting as early interventions that unlock broader investment across the precinct.

Importantly, the Master Plan is not just a design document. It includes a delivery framework that sets out how these ambitions are intended to be realised.

Council is explicit in acknowledging that it cannot deliver the transformation alone. Implementation will require coordination between State agencies, private developers, landowners and the community, with a mix of planning agreements, infrastructure contributions and direct delivery mechanisms used to fund and stage improvements over time.

The plan outlines a mix of short-term, medium-term and long-term actions, from immediate public domain upgrades and planning controls, through to larger-scale projects that will unfold over the next decade or more. In practical terms, the next 12 to 24 months will be the most important.

This is when the Master Plan will move through exhibition, refinement and eventual adoption. It is also the period in which Council will seek to embed the framework into its planning controls, giving it weight in the assessment of future development applications.

Council officers have indicated that once the Master Plan is in place, it could be used as a benchmark when assessing Housing Delivery Authority proposals, and potentially reduce the need for further HDA declarations within Bondi Junction. In effect, it is an attempt to bring planning control back to the local level, while still aligning with State housing targets.

That tension between State-led reform and local planning control is not unique to Waverley. It is playing out across Sydney.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

If delivered as intended, Bondi Junction will become denser, more active, and more complex. It will support more residents, more workers, and a wider range of uses, extending beyond its current retail core into a more layered urban environment.

“The civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East”: Bondi Junction masterplan revealed

Toorak's dress circle St Georges Road, home to some of the city's priciest homes, is set for a rare new apartment development.

Blood Diamond Group, an entity tied to Tina Brandi, wife of David Brandi who has been a prolific bidder on The Block over the years, has filed plans for an ultra-exclusive development across an amalgamated 3,662 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/104-106-st-georges-road-toorak-vic-3142">104 and 106 St Georges Road</a>.

The proposal would replace two existing homes on the riverfront site with a five-level apartment building cascading down the steeply sloping land toward the Yarra River. Designed by Charles Wright Architects, the development has been carefully shaped around the site’s topography and river environs, with the upper levels stepping back to reduce visual bulk from both St Georges Road and the Yarra corridor.

Planning documents describe the proposal as “a site layout and building typology that is consistent with the emerging character of the area and which provides exceptional amenity for future residents without compromising that of neighbouring properties.”&nbsp;

<img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ea19a17e-7528-4fa8-b727-05f2f7c025e5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20a_0.png?VersionId=rZ2IjdoUL_UrRl1sZ4wZHnQXbYUaEmUQ" />

The scheme comprises 12 apartments, including 10 three-bedroom residences, one one-bedroom apartment, and a substantial split-level five-bedroom penthouse. A 624 sqm communal rooftop terrace will crown the building, while three undercroft levels embedded into the hillside will accommodate apartments and basement parking.

The design leverages the site’s dramatic northern outlook across the Yarra River, with living areas and balconies oriented toward the water. A central atrium running the full height of the building is intended to draw natural light deep into the residences and improve internal amenity.

Landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo Design &amp; Landscape</a> will play a major role in softening the built form, particularly along the river edge where significant setbacks have been introduced. The proposal includes a minimum 30-metre setback from the Yarra River boundary, preserving a substantial landscaped buffer between the development and the waterway.

While a mature English Oak near the front of the site is proposed for removal, the plans retain a large English Elm closer to the riverfront, alongside other established vegetation in the lower section of the property.

<img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ed3bf19b-5bc7-482f-bde7-41f709a13c3a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20b.png?VersionId=SG_kBGu4rOaSPY8FtVcmPJfSCrstuOfg" />

Architecturally, the building adopts strong horizontal forms with expansive glazing and curved balcony edges facing the river. Planning documents note the upper levels “adopt a receding form” to ensure the building responds appropriately to the Yarra River environs overlay controls.&nbsp;

The surrounding streetscape is characterised by large contemporary homes embedded into the hillside, many presenting as modest one or two-storey forms to the street before expanding toward the river frontage below. The planning report notes this established pattern heavily influenced the massing strategy for Toorak Pavilion.&nbsp;

Until the recent sale of the landmark Clendon Road mansion Coonac for around $130 million, St Georges Road held the state's most expensive home, the $80,000,088 derelict "Ghost House" mansion that was bought by crypto king Ed Craven.&nbsp;

Blair House, also on St Georges Road, sold for $74.5 million in 2022.

First look: Toorak Pavilions slated for dress circle St Georges Road

Six months after a development site on Kangaroo Point’s Shafston Avenue sold for $6.55 million, plans have been lodged for a 23-storey apartment tower.

A company named JMT Mega Capital, understood to be interstate investors when the 1,222 sqm double block traded late last year through Patona Property, is proposing an 84-apartment development in place of the existing low-rise buildings.

The slender tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/212-220-shafston-avenue-east-brisbane-qld-4169">212–220 Shafston Avenue</a>, overlooking the Brisbane River, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/aplus-design-group">Aplus Design Group</a>. It will comprise a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments above six basement levels, topped by rooftop resident amenities.

<img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7e17ba9e-553e-42ef-92b6-22081671521a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium_3.png?VersionId=hlVUf99vrOjUs.vhQs0qV0DhOncUy9T8" />

The development has been designed as a vertically articulated tower with recessed balconies, curved façades and planted edges intended to soften its scale within the evolving Shafston Avenue skyline. In the submitted Urban Design Report, Aplus Design Group said the tower had been “shaped with a slender vertical expression, articulated façades, recessed balcony zones, integrated planting and a clearly defined podium relationship, helping to reduce perceived bulk and create a more elegant contribution to the Shafston Avenue streetscape and broader Kangaroo Point skyline.”

The scheme comprises 84 apartments, including 25 one-bedroom units, 34 two-bedroom apartments and 25 three-bedroom residences. A total of 104 car spaces are proposed across six basement levels, including resident, visitor and accessible parking.

Residents will have access to rooftop communal open space and shared amenities, while the development also incorporates deep planting zones and subtropical landscaping throughout the podium and tower levels. The project includes 35 per cent communal space coverage across the site and a 17.5 per cent deep soil zone allocation to support urban greening outcomes.

The application exceeds the mapped building height under the Kangaroo Point Peninsula Neighbourhood Plan and is being assessed under Brisbane City Council’s impact assessment pathway. The design team argues the additional height is supported by the site’s strategic inner-city location, existing high-density zoning, and proximity to transport and employment hubs.

“The design has been developed to make better use of a well-serviced urban site within an established high-density residential setting, while improving the street presentation and overall quality of the public realm interface,” the report states.

<img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1ab44b1e-ff45-4bf3-8da8-8aa0cd79db33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_10.png?VersionId=tSxeGekZOqj1e9g3PEn_yFoC3taKDp3U" />

The proposal adds to a growing pipeline of apartment developments reshaping Kangaroo Point ahead of the 2032 Brisbane Olympic Games, with demand continuing to strengthen for new housing supply in well-connected inner-city precincts.

Mosaic has nearly sold out its under-construction <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-bedford-by-mosaic-16-30-prospect-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Bedford by Mosaic</a>&nbsp;and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-carter-by-mosaic-77-linton-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Carter</a>,&nbsp;while Pikos recently completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye Residences</a> nearby. Pikos is also delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gaia-kangaroo-point-108-lambert-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Gaia</a>, over 230 three- and four-bedroom apartments on Lambert Street.

First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point apartment tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct

Wages

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EXPERT OSBERVATION
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is making an explicit trade-off between inflation and financial stability concerns. And this could be weighing on Australians’ wages.
In the past, the RBA focused more on keeping inflation in check, the usual role of the central bank. But now the bank is playing more into concerns about financial stability risks in explaining why it is persistently undershooting the middle of its inflation target.
In the wake of the global financial crisis, the federal Treasurer and Reserve Bank governor signed an updated <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/framework/stmt-conduct-mp-5-30092010" target="_blank">agreement</a> on what the bank should focus on in setting interest rates. This included a new section on financial stability.
That statement made clear that financial stability was to be pursued without compromising the RBA’s traditional focus on inflation.
The latest <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/framework/stmt-conduct-mp-7-2016-09-19" target="_blank">agreement</a>, adopted when Philip Lowe became governor of the bank in 2016, means the bank can pursue the financial stability objective even at the expense of the inflation target, at least in the short-term.
While the RBA board has <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2018/2018-02-06" target="_blank">explained</a> its recent steady interest rate decisions partly on the basis of risks to financial stability, this sits uneasily with what the RBA otherwise has to say about underlying fundamentals of our economy.
It correctly blames trends in house prices and household debt on a lack of supply of housing, and not on excessive borrowing. These supply restrictions amplify the response of house prices to changes in demand for housing. RBA <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2018/pdf/rdp2018-03.pdf" target="_blank">research</a> estimates that zoning alone adds 73% to the marginal cost of houses in Sydney.
<a href="http://www.apra.gov.au/MediaReleases/Pages/14_30.aspx" target="_blank">Restrictions</a> on lending growth by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority since the end of 2014 have been designed to give housing supply a chance to catch-up with demand and to maintain the resilience of households against future shocks.
The RBA argues that it needs to balance financial stability risks against the need to stimulate the economy through lower interest rates. But this has left inflation running below the middle of its target range and helps explain why wages growth has been weak.
The official cash rate has been left unchanged since August 2016, the longest period of steady policy rates on record. The fact that inflation has undershot its target of 2-3% is the most straightforward evidence that monetary policy has been too restrictive.
While long-term interest rates in the US continue to rise, reflecting expectations for stronger economic growth and higher inflation, Australia’s long-term interest rates have languished.
Australian long-term interest rates are below those in the US by the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=jRoG" target="_blank">largest margin</a> since the early 1980s. This implies the Australian economy is expected to underperform that of the US in the years ahead.
Inflation expectations (implied by Australia’s long-term interest rates) have been stuck around 2% in recent years, below the Reserve Bank’s desired average for inflation of 2.5%.
Financial markets can be forgiven for thinking the RBA will not hit the middle of its 2-3% target range any time soon. The RBA doesn’t believe it will either, with its deputy governor Guy Debelle repeating the word “gradual” no less than 12 times in a <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/sp-dg-2018-05-15-1" target="_blank">speech</a> when describing the outlook for inflation and wages.
Inflation has been below the midpoint of the target range since the December quarter in 2014. On the RBA’s own <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2018/feb/" target="_blank">forecasts</a> inflation isn’t expected to return to the middle of the target range over the next two years.
The Reserve Bank blames low inflation on slow wages growth, claiming in its most recent <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2018/feb/" target="_blank">statement on monetary policy</a> that “labour costs are a key driver of inflationary pressure”. But this is putting the cart before the horse.
In fact, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1475-4932.12401?af=R" target="_blank">recently published research</a> shows that it is low inflation expectations that are largely to blame for low wages growth.
Workers and employers look at likely inflation outcomes when negotiating over wages. These expectations are in turn driven by perceptions of monetary policy.
Below target inflation makes Australia less resilient to economic shocks, not least because it works against the objective of stabilising the household debt to income ratio. Subdued economic growth and inflation also gives the economy a weaker starting point if and when an actual shock does occur, potentially exacerbating a future downturn.
When the RBA governor and the federal treasurer renegotiate their agreement on monetary policy after the next election, the treasurer should insist on reinstating the wording of the 2010 statement that explicitly prioritised the inflation target over financial stability risks.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96714/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">If the RBA continues to sacrifice its inflation target on the altar of financial stability risks, inflation expectations and wages growth will continue to languish and the economy underperform its potential.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/stephen-kirchner-1726" target="_blank">Stephen Kirchner</a>, Program Director, Trade and Investment, United States Studies Centre, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841" target="_blank">University of Sydney</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-rbas-shift-to-worrying-about-financial-stability-could-be-hurting-australian-wages-96714" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Australian wages could be effected by RBA's growing financial stability concerns

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Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), in collaboration with the Workplace Gender Equality Agency (WGEA) today released a report revealing top tier female managers in Australian organisations earn on average $93,000, or 26.5 percent, less per year compared to their male counterparts.
Gender Equity Insights 2017: Inside Australia’s Gender Pay Gap, the second in the BCEC|WGEA Gender Equity Insights series, also outlines a measurable link between a gender-balanced leadership team and reduced gender pay gaps.
The analysis of WGEA’s world leading data by the BCEC explores gender pay gaps across over 12,000 reporting organisations that capture more than 4 million Australian employees.
The report explores how gender pay gaps vary across industries and occupations, and also includes special investigations on gender pay gaps for graduate program participants, workforce gender segregation and the impact of changing the gender balance in senior leadership over time.
Key findings of the report include: 
<ul>
<li>Increasing the representation of women in senior leadership positions is associated with lowering gender pay gaps.</li>
<li>Gender pay gaps for organisations with a balanced representation of women in senior leadership roles, at 10 per cent on average, are half the size of those with the least representation of women in leadership.</li>
<li>Once the management environment becomes heavily dominated by women – beyond 80 per cent, the gender pay gap among mangers increases from 8 to 17 per cent.</li>
<li>The median gender pay gap among graduates is 2.9 per cent on base salary and 2.1 per cent on total remuneration.</li>
<li>Women are consistently under-represented in the highest graduate salary bands, with some 18 per cent fewer women paid over $80,000 compared to their share of the graduate workforce.</li>
<li>For part time employees, non-managerial women out-earn men on average by 7.8 per cent, or around $4,000 a year. This pattern reverses at senior levels where part-time female managers earn on average 27.1 per cent less than their male peers.</li>
<li>Mining, Australia’s most male-dominated industry, awards the highest average pay to women. Women employed full-time in the industry earned on average $139,053 in total remuneration in 2015-16.</li>
<li>The gender pay gap grows with seniority, climbing to 26.5 per cent for top-tier managers, an annual difference of more than $93,000 in total remuneration.</li>
<li>Pay gaps among managers are exacerbated by the greater share of discretionary pay, including bonuses, awarded to men. For top-tier managers, nearly $40,000 of the annual difference in pay is made up of additional remuneration including bonuses.</li>
</ul>
Report author and BCEC Principal Research Fellow Associate Professor Rebecca Cassells said the report outcomes were a stark indicator of the different ways women and men engaged with the workforce, and how their respective contributions are valued.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/02/Chart-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/02/Chart-1.jpg" alt="">
“Not only do female-dominated organisations tend to be lower paid, but this analysis shows that in workplaces with heavily female-dominated management teams there are large gender pay gaps in favour of men,” Associate Professor Cassells said.
“It seems that where the men are few, they are more highly valued.”
Report co-author and BCEC Director Professor Alan Duncan said the findings present some of the strongest empirical evidence to date that improved gender pay outcomes are driven by companies promoting greater gender equity in senior leadership roles.
“Organisations that increased the share of women in executive leadership roles by more than 10 per cent between 2015 and 2016 recorded a reduction in the organisation-wide gender pay gap of 3 percentage points over the course of a single year,” Professor Duncan said.
WGEA Director Ms Libby Lyons said it was time to challenge the way we think about work. 
“This report shows that regardless of the industry they choose to work in, women are worse off than men when working full-time,” Ms Lyons said.
“The analysis is clear, gender-balanced workplaces and gender balanced leadership teams lower the gender pay gap.
“We must address the stereotypes dictating the work women and men ‘should’ do, if Australia is to meet the social and economic challenges in the decades ahead.”
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Gender pay imbalance in real estate industry one of the highest

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GUEST OBSERVER
Wages growth remains weak. The wage price index rose just 2.1 percent y/y in the first quarter of 2016, the lowest rate on record in this series.
The weakness likely reflects both domestic and global factors. Unemployment remains elevated in Australia, but even in those economies at, or close to, full employment wage growth has remained low. We expect wages growth to remain soft over the next year or so, which will keep inflation low, while also remaining as a headwind to household spending. 
<a href="/images/2016/05/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-18%20at%204.07.55%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/05/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-18%20at%204.07.55%20PM.png" alt="">
Growth in the wage price index (WPI) slowed further in Q1. Wages rose just 0.4 percent q/q and 2.1 percent y/y – on both measures growth is the slowest on record. 
Wage growth in the private sector at +0.4 percent q/q / +1.9 percent y/y remains softer than in the public sector at +0.5 percent q/q / +2.5 percent y/y, while wage growth continues to slow across industries and states. Not surprisingly, private-sector wages growth is slowest in WA and Queensland at 1.6% y/y and 1.7 percent y/y respectively. 
We expect wages growth will remain subdued for some time. While elevated unemployment and a further adjustment in Australia’s relative labour cost structure will continue to be important drivers, weak wages growth is an increasing global phenomenon. 
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In its recent inflation forecast downgrade, the RBA clearly reassessed its view on the wages outlook. Yesterday’s minutes noted that “the forecasts embodied the expectation that growth in the wage price index would stabilise around current quarterly growth rates before gradually picking up later in the forecast period”. On that front, these numbers look to be marginally weaker than the Bank’s expectations. 
<a href="/images/2016/05/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-18%20at%204.10.06%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/05/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-18%20at%204.10.06%20PM.png" alt="">
Weak wage growth will keep inflation low. Today’s numbers suggest that growth is yet to stabilise on this measure. This suggests that the risks to the inflation outlook remain tilted to the downside, and household income growth will continue to be a constraint on consumer spending. 
 Felicity Emmett co-head of Australian economics, ANZ Research and can be contacted <a href="https://www.anz.com/corporate/research/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

Australian wages growth continues to slow: ANZ's Felicity Emmett

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GURST OBSERVER
Wage inflation in Qld has moderated down to the pace in WA even though the mining invesment hit is greater in the latter state.
Total hourly wage rates ex bonuses (WPI) lifted 0.4 percent in Q1, less than market’s expectation for a 0.5 percent rise. Westpac forecast was for a 0.4 percentqtr rise in the WPI. This follows on from a rise of 0.5 percent in Q4 and 0.6 percentqtr rise in each of the two quarters before.
The annual pace is a new record low for the Index at 2.1 percentyr. This is a moderation from 2.2 percentyr in Q4 and the recent peak of 2.5 percentyr in 2015Q4. The WPI started in the September quarter of 1997.
More dramatic has been the deceleration in private sector wage inflation. Lifting just 0.4 percentqtr this followed a 0.5 percentqtr rise in each of the previous four quarters. Before that it had a run of three quarters printing 0.6 percentqtr each quarter.  As such, the annual pace has hit a new record low of 1.9 percentyr. Private sector wage inflation recent peak was 4.0 percentyr in 2011Q1 and has been moderating ever since.
There was, however, some more positive news. The annual pace of growth in wages rates when you also include bonuses lifted to 2.5 percentyr in Q1. But before you get too excited this was more to do with base effects than an improvement in the underlying pace. In the quarter, total wages included bonuses lifted 0.4 percent compared to 0.5 percent in Q4 and 1.0 percent in Q3 but as it is up on the surprising 0.2 percent in 2015Q1 it boosted the annual pace.
The moderation in wages may also be due to the shifting composition of employment gains, from mining and construction to hospitality and other household services. These sectors seem to be able to draw in a greater supply of labour (noticeable in the rising female participation) and tend to have weaker collective bargaining power.
Public sector wage inflation printed 0.5 percent in the March quarter from 0.5 percent in the December quarter and an average of 0.7 percentqtr in the previous four quarters. The annual pace was flat at 2.5 percentyr which is a moderation from the recent peak of 2.7 percentyr in 2015Q3. Post the GFC, public sector wage inflation peaked at 3.9 percentyr in 2010Q4.
Wage inflation lifted a touch in WA to 2.0 percentyr as Qld held a 1.9 percentyr pace to now have the lowest rate of total wage inflation for any mainland state. ACT overall holds the award for the lowest rate of wages growth at 1.8 percentyr. However, at 1.6 percent WA has the lowest rate of private sector wage inflation. NSW wages growth was flat at 2.1 percentyr while Vic wages growth was also flat but at a higher pace of 2.4 percentyr. SA spit the difference of the two recording a 2.2 percentyr pace.
Wage inflation is underperforming what the broader labour market indicators are suggesting it should be. Wage pressures are well contained as the temperature cools in the former hot sectors and industries. This presents a very benign outlook for inflation and one that is set to remain so given modest job gains, increasing market competition in the retail space in particular, declining inflation expectations and rising supply of workers in the sectors that are expanding (as exemplified by rising female participation).
Depending on which deflator you use, real wage inflation is benign at 0.8 percent/yr (headline CPI) or 0.5 percentyr (using average of the RBA core measures). 
Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

 Wages inflation continues to probe new record lows: Westpac's Justin Smirk

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GUEST OBSERVER
Today’s extraordinarily low annual headline and underlying inflation rates reflect not only lower petrol prices but widespread price discounting by retailers. Six of the eleven CPI categories had price falls in the quarter.
The QI CPI fell by 0.2 percent, sharply lower than the market expectation which centred on a rise of 0.2 percent (CBA (f) 0.3%). The AUD fell about US1 cent and interest rate futures are now pricing in a 55 percent chance of an RBA rate cut next Tuesday. While the headline inflation rate in annual terms is low, at 1.3 percent, it is the underlying inflation rate which is the big issue. It is running at 1.5 percent, the lowest rate on record. 
The 10% fall in petrol prices was largely expected. But the big expenditure categories also surprised with low results. Food prices (fruit, dairy, cakes and cereals) fell by 0.2% in the March quarter to be unchanged over the past year. It most probably reflects the competitive pressures between the big supermarkets and the new entrants. Housing costs, the largest expenditure category, rose by only 0.3 percent to be just 1.7 percent higher over the year. Even the highly regulated sectors, health and education, had relatively low QI rises (for them) of 1.9 percent and 3.1 percent. 
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The lower AUD over the past year has not, so far, produced the usual higher imported consumer goods and services prices. Tradables inflation fell by 1.4 percent in QI, reflecting the falls in petrol, furnishings, clothing, audio-visual equipment and international holiday travel. 
We are reviewing our RBA rate call in light of the lower than expected inflation trends. Clearly the chances of a rate cut next week have moved a lot higher. But today’s numbers may still not “demand” a rate cut. 
The RBA has tolerated below target inflation on a number of occasions. It is after all how the inflation targeting regime is supposed to work. The last time we saw inflation rates around the current figures was in 1997-98. Back then there were 6 out of 7 quarters where underlying inflation was below target. For most of that period the RBA left the cash rate at 5 percent.
There was a one-off 25bpt cut at the very end of 1998 (after 6 quarters of below target inflation). That cut was justified more on a deteriorating global outlook rather than low inflation. When thinking about what today’s CPI outcome will mean for RBA forecasts it is worth remembering that the Q4 GDP numbers were noticeably stronger than the RBA was expecting (2.5 percent expected versus 3 percent actual). Higher GDP and a lower unemployment rate, now 5.7 percent, mean the “if needed” components for a rate cut are not quite as pressing. With the release of today’s Australian CPI our replica of the RBA’s model suggests the Australian real TWI is less overvalued than previously estimated. In fact, the Australian real TWI is just inside the fair value band (+/- one standard deviation).
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<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-27%20at%203.02.05%20PM.png" alt=""> 
The detail 
As anticipated, the volatile items had a major impact on the much lower than expected headline CPI outcome of a 0.2 percent fall. The QI CPI (excluding volatile items) rose by 0.2 percent (to be up 1.7 percent on a year ago). In other words, the volatile items sliced 0.4 percent from the headline QI CPI. 
Leading the volatiles deflationary impact were petrol prices which dived by 10 percent over QI, to be 6.4 percent lower over the year. The QI petrol prices drop sliced 0.31ppts from the QI CPI outcome. The other key volatile item, namely fruit and vegetable prices sliced 0.11pts from the headline QI CPI. The key driver was an 11.1percent drop in fruit prices (down 6.9 percent pa) which made a 0.13ppt negative contribution to headline inflation. This impact was partially offset by a 1.5 percent rise in vegetable prices in QI (but which were down 4.3 percent in annual terms). 
These volatile items account for most of the gap between underlying and headline inflation forecasts. 
Price falls 
Six of the eleven components of the headline CPI registered price falls in QI. As mentioned above and as expected, the sharp decline in automotive fuel prices was the most prominent factor deflating the quarterly headline CPI result. 
Other CPI items weighing down on the headline outcome were clothing and footwear prices which dropped by 2.6 percent in QI and made a negative 0.1ppt contribution. The main contributor to the decline in this component was accessories prices which declined by 4.3 percent in QI. 
The other CPI categories posting falls in QI were the recreation and culture group, (-1.0 percent), the communications group (-1.5 percent), and furnishings household equipment and services (-0.4 percent). The main contributors to the fall in the recreation and culture group prices were international holiday travel and accommodation (-2.0 percent) and domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-1.9 percent). 
Elsewhere, a 1.7 percent drop in telecommunications equipment and services was the key driver of the 1.5 percent fall in communications group prices. Meanwhile, a 4.1 percent fall in household textiles prices and a 1.6 percent decline in furniture prices contributed to the 0.4 percent decrease in furnishings and household equipment and services prices. 
Price rises 
The largest offsetting price rises in QI were secondary education (+4.6percent), medical and hospital services (+1.6percent) and pharmaceutical products prices (+ 4.8percent). These outcomes are largely due to seasonal factors but were smaller than usual. Overall, these health and education groups contributed 0.2ppts to the QI CPI. 
Also contributing in a positive way to the quarterly headline CPI outcome were increases in household fuels (+3.0percent) and new dwelling purchasing by owner occupiers (+0.2percent) suggesting housing activity may well be cooling but it certainly isn’t crashing. 
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Imported or “tradables” inflation 
Tradables prices fell by 1.4percent in QI and were up by a modest 0.6percent over the year to March. The quarterly fall in tradables prices was due to a combination of the higher AUD in QI, falling fuel prices, and falling international holiday travel and accommodation prices. Tradable prices make up 40percent of the CPI basket and are a reflection of imported prices. 
Domestic or “non-tradables” inflation 
Domestic inflation or non-tradables inflation rose by a modest 0.4percent over QI and lifted by a tame 1.7percent on a year ago. This category accounts for around 60percent of the total CPI basket. The most significant contributors to the QI rise in non-tradables inflation were increases in gas and other household fuels and beer prices. Also, the non tradables services of secondary education and medical and hospital services prices helped the quarterly rise in this component. The key offsetting declines in 
non tradables inflation were electricity prices and domestic holiday and accommodation and telecommunication equipment prices. 
Plenty of spare capacity in the economy and softer wages growth has helped cap non-tradables inflation in recent quarters. 
States 
It is very unusual to see uniformly low inflation across all the capital cities. Prices rose in Canberra by 0.2percent in QI, were flat in Brisbane and fell in the other capitals. 
The price falls were in Sydney, -0.2percent, Melbourne -0.1percent, Adelaide -0.3percent, Perth -0.6percent, Hobart -0.2percent and Darwin -0.9percent. Perth and Darwin had the largest QI price falls. 
In annual terms, inflation was running highest in Melbourne and Brisbane at 1.7percent, then 1.3percent in Sydney and Hobart, 1.0percent in Canberra, 0.7percent in Perth and Adelaide, and -0.3percent in Darwin. 
The capital cities with the weakest retail activity, like Perth, Adelaide and Darwin have the weakest inflation outcomes, indicating the widespread retail discounting pressure. But there are other issues underway. Perth’s residential rents have fallen 4.4percent over the past year. 
Wages trends and inflation 
Wages trends provide a major input to structural inflation in the Australian economy. The trend around private sector wages over the past few years is towards consistently lower than expected outcomes. There are also clear compressions in wages outcomes across industry sectors and regions which are relatively new phenomenon and have been a feature of the post-mining investment and construction boom landscape. 
Annual private sector wages growth was running at a paltry 2percent in the year to December 2015, the weakest growth rate since the series began in 1997, and well below the 3percent to 4percent annual growth that has been the norm from the late 1990s until after the mining boom started to dissipate. Ongoing spare capacity in the labour market and job security anxieties are likely to continue to cap wages growth by workers limiting wage claims. 
Nationally, QIV wages growth continued to track lower in a range of industries and all industries have experienced wages growth well below their decade averages. On an industry basis across all sectors (i.e. public and private) the strongest annual wages growth was posted in financial and insurance services at 2.8percentpa, and weakest in mining at 1.5percentpa. 
The industry sector wages outcomes show that about 80 percent of industries are paying less than 2.5percent wage increases and the remaining 20percent are between 2.5percent and 3.0percent. The regional trends are also similar, with a trend towards State wage growth below 2.5percent. WA, the State with the highest wages growth for the decade up to 2013, now has growth of just 2percent. The end of the mining boom is having similar effects on wages trends in Queensland and NT. 
The sectors with the strongest jobs growth over the past few years are health, accommodation, cafes and retail. They also tend to be ones where part-time employment is significantly higher than in other sectors. The sectors with mainly full-time employment, like mining, utilities and construction, are losing jobs. So the pressures in the labour market that favour more part-time employment are producing a period of distinctly lower wages outcomes. 
A key reason behind ongoing tepid wages growth recently could be that a much more flexible labour market in recent years has enabled companies’ greater capacity to cap wages growth in a lacklustre labour market. In a period of labour market slack employees tend to be more satisfied to accept lower wages growth in return for more job security. 
The resultant ongoing tame wages growth seems to have contributed to more jobs growth than normally would have been the case. Indeed, the latest employment data showed annual jobs growth of 2.0percentpa. (I.e. +235.3k or an average +19.6k a month) in March. The unemployment rate stood at 5.7percent in March.
Ongoing soft wages growth and labour costs have helped wind back non-tradables (or domestic) inflation in recent quarters. This is especially the case for services inflation (with its very high labour component). Thus modest wages growth is a very handy tool in maintaining the current low inflation environment. 
Inflation expectations 
Central banks and policy makers care about inflation rates and where they may be headed. But they also care about the inflation expectations held by businesses and consumers. These expectations influence how economic agents act, with a flow on to economic activity. And these expectations influence the support or restraint that a given level of interest rates provides. 
The extended period of weak inflation in many countries has seen inflation expectations move lower. Some central banks have become concerned about the impact of low expectations. And certainly some recent policy easings in Europe, Japan and New Zealand reflect these concerns. Even in the US, where interest rates have been nudged higher, Fed Chair Yellen has recently expressed concerns about low inflation expectations. They are yet another reason for a caution approach to rate changes by the Fed. 
Our thoughts on global inflation expectation trends and what they mean for policy directions can be found here. 
The RBA monitors inflation expectations. But they are of less concern than for other central banks. They are rarely mentioned in post RBA meeting Statements. And comments are generally limited to a summary paragraph in the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP). 
More importantly, inflation expectations in Australia are low but look well anchored. They have not been influenced by low headline inflation rates and the general lack of business pricing power. 
Policy makers are actually probably quite happy with aspects of the inflation expectations story. The decline in house price expectations as views on the housing market have softened will be seen as a desirable outcome. Especially given the concerns evident about rapid price growth and elevated expectations in 2015. The restraint in wage expectations is seen as a positive through the support it gives to labour demand.
Michael Workman is senior economist, <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au/corporate/research?ei=mv_research" target="_blank">Commonwealth Bank</a>.
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Low inflation raises the chances of an RBA rate cut next week: CBA's Michael Workman

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GUEST OBSERVER
According to the Wage Price Index wages growth was 0.6% quarter on quarter in the September quarter or 2.3% year on year. This was in line with market expectations.
Private wages growth was lower at 0.5% qoq or 2.1% year on year.
Wages growth remains at a record low – at least for the period covered by the Wage Price Index.
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Quite clearly the adjustment flowing from the end of the mining boom and associated weak demand  in the economy is continuing to show up in weak wages growth. 
This in turn is helping protect employment and partly explains why jobs growth has been able to come in better than expected despite the slow rate of economic growth. So while weak wages growth is a dampener on its own for consumer spending, it’s partly offset by solid jobs growth.
It also means that inflationary pressures coming from the labour market remain weak, reinforcing the RBA’s easing bias which is predicated on the outlook for continuing low or benign inflation.
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank"> </a>
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