<p>Fresh off completing Pienza Neutral Bay, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-element">Central Element</a> is preparing its next move in the coveted Lower North Shore suburb.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Central Element (CE) has lodged plans for an eight-storey apartment building at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/54-64-barry-street-neutral-bay-nsw-2089">54–64 Barry Street</a>, a 1,659 sqm site just south of Military Road and the Neutral Bay town centre.</p>

<p>The $52 million development will involve the demolition of four detached homes across four lots to deliver 45 apartments, including eight affordable housing units to be managed by Bridge Housing. The mix will comprise six one-bedroom apartments, 24 two-beds, and 15 three-beds. The apartments will sit above three basement levels with 62 car parking spaces and 50 bicycle spaces.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mhn-design-union">MHN Design Union</a> (MHNDU) has returned as architect following its work on Pienza, again shaping a mid-rise form with a clear street presence. The design features a lower four-storey podium element that responds to surrounding context, with upper levels recessed to reduce perceived bulk. Communal open space is proposed both at ground level and on the rooftop, the latter including an outdoor kitchen and swimming pool.</p>

<p>“The building has been designed with a lower four-storey element and with building materials commensurate with the character of the area,” Beam Planning noted in its submission to the North Sydney Council.</p>

<p><img alt="Barry Street, Neutral Bay Nsw 2089" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3a28ab3a-b8ba-4476-81cd-e4a8bb84f3a7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Barry-Street-Neutral-Bay-1327x742.png?VersionId=hlgvxszAWXIHgHtdR5HiwIKiSli2lLZV" /></p>

<p>Bridge Housing will manage the affordable units for a period of 15 years, as required under the Housing SEPP’s incentive provisions.</p>

<p>MHNDU’s design report further highlights the site's strategic location just 250 metres from key bus stops and 1.3 kilometres from North Sydney CBD, positioning it for transit-accessible housing supply. In their planning justification, the design team emphasised the site’s compatibility with emerging local character and scale.</p>

<p>Central Element has a solid apartment pipeline spread all over Sydney. They recently completed&nbsp;Pienza, 37 apartments just 500 metres away from the new project, and are currently building Ethos Chatswood, Ballamac House in Coogee, and Bianca on the harbour in Drummoyne.</p>

<p>They have plans for future projects in Mosman, Bondi Beach, Greenwich, Lavender Bay, along with a tower on the edge of Hyde Park.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look: Central Element unveils second Neutral Bay apartment project

<p>Real estate investment fund Wentworth Wentworth Equities is soon to launch a "Los Angeles-inspired" residential, leisure and lifestyle precinct in Brisbane’s Hamilton riverside ahead of the predicted Olympic-led population explosion for the city.</p>

<p>Drawing its style inspiration and name from Los Angeles’ renowned The Grove, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/hamilton-grove-19-hercules-street-hamilton-qld-4007">Hamilton Grove</a> will feature three residential towers and a vibrant street-level public precinct with curated luxury lifestyle, retail and dining offerings.</p>

<p>The first of the three towers, to launch in March 2026, will comprise 61 apartments, in the same building as a premium hotel.<img alt="Hamilton Grove" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d227fe61-8392-45b7-b386-9133f29a249f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-19%20at%209.10.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=HTCV35HZ4h84jQCmHwhsdIPN0ctO5d7Z" /></p>

<p>Wentworth Equities Executive Chairman Sameh Ibrahim said the precinct will be unique in its appeal to both residents and the wider community.</p>

<p>“Hamilton is already one of Brisbane’s most sought-after riverside suburbs and for good reason,” Ibrahim said.</p>

<p>“Where else in the world can you walk out of your front door and have everything you could possibly need at your fingertips? The city is just around the corner, the airport is only ten minutes away, you have the river and green spaces right there and premium retail and dining on your doorstep."</p>

<p>Wentworth Equities acquired the 7637 sqm Hercules St site in 2014, when Ibrahim said he had a "very clear vision" for the precinct, but ultimately it wasn't the right time to develop. He said Hamilton was still very much an "emerging precinct."</p>

<p>“Since then, Hamilton and surrounding suburbs like Ascot and Albion have significantly grown and matured into a precinct that aligns with our vision for Hamilton Grove. Brisbane as a whole has so much to offer in the way of lifestyle appeal, but as it stands it is so widespread – you go to Howard Smith Wharves for fine dining, you go to James Street for shopping, you go to West End to walk along the river – but what if you could go to Hamilton Grove for everything?</p>

<p>“Our vision is a precinct that brings together the best of Brisbane into one central space abundant with culture, class and culinary experience – a place that a lucky few will get to call home, but the rest of Brisbane still get to explore and experience at their leisure.”</p>

<p><img alt="Hamilton Grove" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="46550990-8aeb-44d4-bb47-150cdca96529" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-19%20at%209.10.50%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bmCkApPKY_Bj3z02Q8vI7Kyo_caJXOnv" /></p>

<p>Experienced civil engineering contractor Mainland Civil has been appointed to commence early works for the project, adding Hamilton Grove to their extensive portfolio where it will join other iconic Brisbane developments including Queens Wharf, 300 George Street, Infinity Tower and 1 William Street.</p>

<p>Construction on Tower One is scheduled to commence in early 2026 with completion expected in late 2028.</p>

<p><strong>Fast Facts</strong><br />
<br />
• Three residential towers and a vibrant street-level public precinct with curated luxury lifestyle, retail and dining offerings.<br />
• Construction on Tower One is expected to commence in Quarter One 2026, with completion expected in late 2028.<br />
• 7,637 square metre site at 19 Hercules St, Hamilton (part of Economic Development Queensland’s 304 hectare Northshore Hamilton Priority Development Area).<br />
• 61 waterfront residences and skyhomes in the first tower, ranging from two to five bedrooms.<br />
• Hamiton Grove will be officially launched in March 2026.</p>


"LA-inspired" Hamilton Grove to launch on Brisbane riverside

<p>There’s a quiet patch of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/hawthorn-vic-3122">Hawthorn</a>, between the bustle of Glenferrie Road and the curve of the Yarra, that rarely sees change, and even more rarely, new apartments. But that’s exactly where <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pomeroy-pacific-quattro-corp">PQD</a> is planting Kooyongkoot: a deliberate, 18-residence answer to the question of what downsizers actually want.</p>

<p>“This is something this pocket of Hawthorn has never seen before,” says Fil Gacesa, head of sales at PQD. “<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a> will deliver just 18 large-scale apartments in the heart of Hawthorn. It is the true definition of resort-style living.”</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/59D7VxzltmM?si=1iCzRD7FRneKryfv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>That scale is central to the story. It’s what allows for two dedicated lift cores, short corridors, and a generous lightcourt that draws natural ventilation and sunlight into every residence. It’s also what makes room for the sort of amenity usually confined to high-density towers: a fully equipped wellness centre with infrared and traditional saunas, yoga and pilates studio, cold therapy shower, and treatment room. There’s a golf simulator, car and dog wash stations, and extensive storage too, not bolted on, but baked in from the start.</p>

<p>But more than the checklist, it’s the design intent that carries weight. “This project has been many years in the making,” says Mark Pomeroy, Director of PQD. “Not just in planning, but in listening, to what our buyers and the local community are looking for”.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355289]</p>

<p>That listening shows up in the materials, oak floors, natural stone, V-ZUG appliances, and in how space is handled. Penthouses feature private rooftop terraces with pools. Terraces and garden residences embrace outdoor connection. Inside, the layouts skew large and open, geared for hosting, not just housing.</p>

<p>Architecturally, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>’s approach is grounded. There’s no reaching for spectacle here. Instead, the building offers a sculptural calm, anchored by landscaping from Eckersley Garden Architecture.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“We wanted to create spaces that feel expansive, serene, and meaningfully connected to daily life,” said founding partner Chris Stribley elsewhere.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]</p>

<p>That sentiment, calm, connection, echoes in the location itself. Kooyongkoot sits just a short stroll from Central Gardens, Fairview Park, and the Rivoli Cinema. Tram lines and schools are close, but the street is tucked, quiet, and leaf-lined.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Residents of Kooyongkoot will be a short stroll from Fairview Park, Central Gardens, and the Glenferrie Road retail strip," Gacesa notes, "but you're also cocooned in this peaceful pocket behind extensive landscaping by Eckersley Garden Architecture.”</p>

<p>Kooyongkoot is set for completion in late 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]</p>


Staff Writer

The project that said no to compromise: Inside Kooyongkoot, Hawthorn

<p>When long-time Ivanhoe locals Graeme and Catherine, decided it was time to downsize, they weren’t necessarily in a rush.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Like many in their stage of life, they had started thinking about apartment living, but anticipated making the shift in two to three years.</p>

<p>That timeline changed when they visited <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/candela-ivanhoe-40-upper-heidelberg-road-ivanhoe">Candela</a>, a new boutique development by <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/salter-brothers">Salter Brothers</a>. The project ticked all the boxes they were looking for: location, quality design, and long-term lifestyle benefits, which prompted them to bring their decision forward.</p>

<p>“It was the right place at the right time,” they said. “We knew immediately it ticked all the boxes, and we didn’t want to wait.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=342 project_image_fid=358855]</p>

<p>Their decision to downsize was driven by a combination of practical needs and lifestyle considerations. Their existing home, while much loved, had become increasingly difficult to maintain. It spanned multiple levels, included extensive front and back gardens, and was starting to show the wear that comes with age.&nbsp;</p>

<p>They were looking for a more manageable lifestyle, one with less upkeep and more freedom. A brand-new apartment with no maintenance requirements and the ability to simply “lock up and leave” gave them peace of mind and a greater sense of control over their future.</p>

<p>Financially, the purchase made sense as well. The available stamp duty savings, strong price-to-value offering, and timing of the settlement suited their plans, making the transition smoother and more cost-effective. The apartment's design and inclusions further supported their choice.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=342 project_image_fid=357493]</p>

<p>The layout was both functional and flexible: three bedrooms, a butler’s pantry, a separate laundry, and a large open-plan living area. It gave them the freedom to host a family, accommodate guests, or set up a home office. The expansive balcony and elevated views added to the appeal, providing a sense of openness and connection to the outdoors.</p>

<p>“It just had a really good flow,” Catherine noted, something they found lacking in many other apartments they’d considered, particularly in the established market.</p>

<p>Candela’s boutique scale was another deciding factor. With a smaller number of residences and a top-floor penthouse position, the couple felt the development offered the privacy and space they were looking for, without feeling isolated.</p>

<p>“We liked that it wasn’t a huge development. It felt well-balanced, modern but still with a sense of community, not overwhelming,” they said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=342 project_image_fid=357508]</p>

<p>Equally important was the ability to remain in Ivanhoe, a suburb they know well and have deep roots in. After 46 years in the area, proximity to local parks, shops, and familiar faces mattered just as much as the apartment itself.</p>

<p>“We didn’t want to give up the community we’ve known for decades. Candela allowed us to upgrade our lifestyle while staying in the place we call home.”</p>

<p>With a Walk Score of 90, the village location supports a convenient, connected lifestyle. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/ivanhoe-vic-3079">Ivanhoe</a> Station is just a eight-minute walk away, and the neighbourhood offers access to parks, cafes, restaurants, and schools along Upper Heidelberg Road, all within easy reach.</p>

<p>Beyond the apartment, the couple also saw value in the broader vision for Candela, one that integrates residential living with public spaces and local amenities.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The development introduces 58 new apartments as well as a mix of commercial and social spaces that integrate contemporary architecture with the suburb’s existing character.&nbsp;</p>

<p>At ground level, residents will find a charming café and a lifestyle wellness centre, perfect for unwinding and rejuvenating. Meanwhile, the rooftop garden offers a stunning vantage point for residents to enjoy breathtaking sunsets, host gatherings, or enjoy barbecues with family and friends. It's not just a place to live; it's a vibrant community where every moment is an opportunity to connect and create lasting memories.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=342]</p>


Why Ivanhoe locals are choosing to downsize to Candela

<p>Mark and Roy Makari are expanding their presence in Sydney’s South West with a second major proposal for Leppington, this time envisioning a 900-dwelling mixed-use development just 850 metres from their previously lodged tower trio on Fifth Avenue.</p>

<p>Project management and construction management firm Creative Vision filed the plans for the&nbsp;multi-building project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/230-rickard-road-leppington-nsw-2179">230 Rickard Road, Leppington</a>. The proposal seeks to establish a new focal point for the precinct through a high-density, transit-oriented development supported by diverse land uses.</p>

<p>According to the Scoping Report prepared for the Department of Planning, the scheme includes around 900 apartments across multiple towers, including 135 dwellings designated for affordable housing. A mix of market and subsidised apartments will be supported by ground-level activation through retail and office space, a childcare centre, and a hotel, forming a comprehensive urban precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="Mixed Use Development 230 Rickard Rd Leppington" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="34797362-f3dc-4d84-8235-2657fc5f3bde" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Plan.png?VersionId=Uzckrz9tUpDQl5lX1_WMhjnv16bsr8wG" /></p>

<p>The Design Report by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/studiosc-0">Studio SC</a> notes that the project “intends to deliver a high-quality, high-density built form that supports the vision for the Leppington Town Centre, integrating mixed-use outcomes and public domain upgrades.” The development is expected to be delivered in stages, although a precise timeline is yet to be confirmed.</p>

<p>The project will be assessed through a future State Significant Development Application, with the Scoping Report indicating the team will seek design excellence via a competitive process or through an expert design review panel. Early massing diagrams suggest a series of mid- to high-rise buildings framing a central landscaped spine, with emphasis on pedestrian permeability and public space.</p>

<p>The planning documentation flags a strong sustainability agenda, stating that the development will “respond to the urban heat island effect, incorporate water sensitive urban design, and prioritise active transport”.</p>

<p><img alt="Mixed Use Development 230 Rickard Rd Leppington" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="369d7b54-1279-4cde-88ec-dcb215594414" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Podium_1.png?VersionId=QArL7B2kkLt63vl5xvL0FNV_ardAlez4" /></p>

<p>The proposal follows in the footsteps of the Makaris’ nearby Fifth Avenue site, where they’ve submitted plans for three towers comprising nearly 500 apartments, with 10 per cent dedicated to affordable housing. That project features commercial podiums, a childcare centre, and a new public park that would occupy more than a third of the site.</p>

<p>Both developments are situated within walking distance of Leppington Train Station and fall under strategic precinct plans promoting higher density housing. The town centre is undergoing substantial transformation, driven by state government planning reforms aimed at fast-tracking housing delivery.</p>

<p>Together, the two projects represent a combined ambition of nearly 1,400 new homes across just under two kilometres of central Leppington.</p>


First look: 900-home mixed-use precinct planned for Leppington

Wage Growth

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<div>There's an old tradition when it comes to job numbers that goes something like this: if the numbers are crap we're doomed; and if the numbers are good then they must be wrong.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The technical term for this is <em>confirmation bias</em>.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As ever this month's <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/09/enormous-jobs-growth-in-nsw" target="_blank">booming jobs numbers</a> were treated with anything from scepticism to outright derision.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And yet the solid results have kept on coming, especially in the two most populous states. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's another bias that tends to impact people: when things have been bad, they expect bad things to continue.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And quite understandably we're seeing a lot of this in relation to weak private sector wages growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After all, soft nominal wage price growth has been around since 2015, so it's becoming quite hard to imagine that pay packets could soon begin to swell again. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But take note, because in some states this may be about to change...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Private sector wages to lift</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although it never seems to get reported anywhere, I've shown <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/07/statistical-buggery" target="_blank">several times before</a> that while the underutilisation <strong><em>rate </em></strong>is high, in volume measures terms things have been very steadily improving for the past few years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>That is to say, lots of people still want more hours of work, but the numbers of extra hours wanted has been declining over the past four years.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1YQRG8zAXOg/W51tO98q9RI/AAAAAAAAr6M/vjMLPeIRSGQWCmjRozgEk1kmQtCf41EOACLcBGAs/s1600/UU.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1YQRG8zAXOg/W51tO98q9RI/AAAAAAAAr6M/vjMLPeIRSGQWCmjRozgEk1kmQtCf41EOACLcBGAs/s640/UU.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1355"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Where is wages growth going to show up first?</div>
<div>
<br>The answer is Victoria, with construction firing up across the state <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/07/state-of-victoria-getting-under" target="_blank">on an unprecedented scale</a>.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UwNPSL_X5r4/W51uLZYH0sI/AAAAAAAAr6U/DSEyyKW3gQ0gBKzC7K9tuLxpeXKi0KoPACLcBGAs/s1600/VIC.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UwNPSL_X5r4/W51uLZYH0sI/AAAAAAAAr6U/DSEyyKW3gQ0gBKzC7K9tuLxpeXKi0KoPACLcBGAs/s640/VIC.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1402"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>And sure enough this week's figures showed that the underutilisation rate in Victoria has dived from a seasonally adjusted peak of 16.1 per cent to 12.5 per cent, with the trend pointing straight down. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>If you listen to the brilliant Business Insider <em>Devils &amp; Details</em> podcasts you'd be well across the following point thanks to the awesome deep-dive analysis of Justin Smirk at Westpac.</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Even allowing for potentially rogue seasonally adjusted figures, the trend improvement points to private sector wages growth in Victoria returning to 3<span>½</span> per cent in due course. </span></div>
<div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DcFqWNH18Q8/W52J62RyndI/AAAAAAAAr6k/tu5-dobkPmcAaQNOa42LmWHMsPB3W6ozgCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DcFqWNH18Q8/W52J62RyndI/AAAAAAAAr6k/tu5-dobkPmcAaQNOa42LmWHMsPB3W6ozgCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1331"></a></div>
</div>
<div>The recent improvement in New South Wales has been a little shallower, but the trend is quite similar, and in fact the unemployment rate in the state is now down to just 4.7 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. </div>
<p> </p>
<div>Here's the paradox of immigration: of course, it adds to the supply of labour, but it also creates demand in the economy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, as Smirk has demonstrated previously, the underutilisation in the labour force has not been behaving in a way consistent with it being solely caused by immigration. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And these numbers confirm that he's right, with the tightening labour markets being those where most immigrants are heading to.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The numbers in Victoria and New South Wales keep on improving.<br><br>This certainly won't stop the calls for lower immigration, of course, or indeed the predictions of a recession, but these numbers suggest that wages growth should pick up from here. </div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Wages growth in NSW and Victoria is coming: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>Global recruitment firm Robert Walters has released its salary expectations for Australian professionals in 2020, with roles in certain sectors set to experience wage growth.</p>
<p>The Robert Walters Salary Survey for 2020 predicts NSW as the state to see the greatest salary increases with property, infrastructure, and the energy sectors dominating the wage growth leaderboard.</p>
<p>“With Australia committed to long-term nation-building programs throughout 2020, it is not surprising that wages will continue to fluctuate and stimulate demand for specialist roles in the property, infrastructure and energy sectors,” said James Nicholson, Robert Walters Managing Director ANZ.</p>
<p>The top five wage growth roles are a mix of permanent and contract roles in NSW within the property, infrastructure and energy sectors.”</p>
<p>The renewables sector will witness strong wage growth, albeit from a small labour pool. There are currently 103 projects that are in construction (or due to start) in Australia, which are expected to deliver over $27 billion in investment and create over 16,000 jobs.</p>
<p>However, “While the emerging renewables sector is showing signs of promise, and the creation of some new jobs, uncertainty may linger until the Australian government articulates a more comprehensive energy policy,” said Mr Nicholson.</p>
<p>Technology and transformation continues to dominate the larger Australian wage narrative with roles such as Business Analyst positions in Victoria and Developer roles in South Australia to see 18-20% annual growth respectively, while broader sector conditions will see some roles in oversupply, confirming a two-speed market environment.</p>
<p>“Technology transformations are continuing unabated across every industry in Australia. As a result, 2020 will see employers vying for professionals with expertise in development, UX, data management and cyber security. Concerns about widespread unemployment due to automation and artificial intelligence have, so far, proved unfounded.” Mr Nicholson said.</p>
<p>Rounding out the top three industries for wage growth nationally is the financial services sector, which remains under enormous pressure from regulators, legislators, government, media and their customers.</p>
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Property industry predicted to lead 2020 in wage growth 

<html><body>
<p>Australia's seasonally adjusted wage growth has increased 2.3 percent over the year, according to The Australian Wage Price Index (WPI) released by the ABS for the September quarter. </p>
<p>Many were predicting a wage growth in the early two percent region, with a quarterly increase of around 0.6 percent.</p>
<p>ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman said seasonally adjusted, private sector wages rose 2.1 per cent and public sector wages grew 2.5 per cent, through the year to September quarter 2018.</p>
<p>"There was a higher rate of wage growth recorded across the majority of industries in comparison to this time last year, reflecting the influence of improved labour market conditions," Hockman said.</p>
<p>"Annual wage growth at the Australia level was 2.3%, the highest growth rate since September quarter 2015."</p>
<p>Economist Stephen Koukoulas tweeted his disappointment after the ABS release, suggesting there was no material pick up.</p>
<p>"Yet another really soggy wages result, unfortunately," he wrote.</p>
<p>"With no minimum wage increase in next three quarters it looks like annual wages growth will revert to the 2 to 2.25 percent range."</p>
<p>ABC business reporter David Taylor was quick to highlight the lack of real growth, suggesting that the ABS are talking up the latest annual wage rise.</p>
<p>He tweeted that at 2.3 percent, the growth rate is now clearly ahead of inflation at 1.9 percent, so "most Aussie's are not going backwards," but added it is "still damn hard to get a pay rise in the private sector."</p>
<p>Annual<strong> </strong>growth to the September quarter ranged from 1.8 percent for the mining and retail trade industries to 2.8 per cent for the health care and social assistance industry.</p>
<p>Western Australia recorded the lowest through the year wage growth of 1.8 per cent while Tasmania recorded the highest of 2.6 per cent. </p>
<p>The Reserve Bank will have had all eyes on the announcement, with a wage growth rise a key driver in speeding up GDP growth, which they've ambitiously forecast to hit 3.5 percent by December.</p>
<p>RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle said the RBA are anticipating wage growth will continue to pick up gradually as the unemployment rate declines and the adjustment following the end of the mining boom is close to runnings its course.</p>
<p>"Around one-quarter of all employees will have received a 3.5 percent pay rise following the increase in national minimum and award wages on July 1," Debelle said.</p>
<p>"For some retail and public sector employees, we are also seeing some new enterprise bargaining agreements signed following a lengthy period where wages had been frozen."</p>
<p>Debelle suggested that the slow wage growth over recent years can be attributed somewhat to workers reluctance to leave their jobs and go after a better paying job.</p>
<p>"One of the factors contributing to this is the low level of voluntary job turnover. Workers tend to choose to leave their job for a better job – be it in conditions or pay," he said.</p>
<p>"The fact that little of this is occurring is likely to be contributing to the subdued wages growth."</p>
<p>"Some firms are attempting to retain staff by using non-wage incentives, including flexible work arrangements, shares, subsidised gym memberships, development opportunities and additional annual leave."</p>
<p data-gtm-vis-recent-on-screen-6236702_632="68492" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-6236702_632="68492" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-6236702_632="4000" data-gtm-vis-has-fired-6236702_632="1">"Over the past few years, there has been a large increase in vacancies but only a small decline in the unemployment rate to date," he said.</p>
<p>IFM Investors chief economist Alex Joiner called the wage growth release "right on expectations."</p>
<p>"Notable from the ABS that all types of wages growth were better in these data, EBAs, awards and individual arrangements - seemingly a positive for at least solid outcomes to keep coming in the next few quarters - assuming the labour market holds up," he tweeted.</p>
<p>Westpac's David Goodman said that despite the growth being muted, in annual terms at least wages are heading in the right direction.</p>
<p>Paul Bloxham, chief economist at HSBC, told the Australian Financial Review that a positive swing in wage growth would be encouraging for the RBA. </p>
<p>He said if wages improve, and continue to do so over the coming months, there’s no doubt that the RBA could consider raising rates as early as mid-2019.</p>
<p><span> </span></p>
<p> </p>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Muted wages growth leaves RBA on interest rate rise wait and see

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<p>This week Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe gave <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/sp-gov-2018-06-13" target="_blank">one of the more revealing speeches</a> one is likely to hear from a central banker.</p>
<p>It touched on many of the recurring themes in this column – sluggish wage growth, crazy levels of household debt, persistently low inflation, a long period of low interest rates, and a chunk of the country feeling they are not sharing in national prosperity.</p>
<p>But, most strikingly, Lowe hinted that the RBA’s official interest rate – the cash rate – might not rise until wage growth returns to the long-term trend.</p>
<p>Lowe began with the following familiar fact:</p>
<p>Over recent times, wages growth around the 2% mark has become the norm in Australia. Some time back, the norm was more like 3 to 4%.</p>
<p>He then turned to a range of possible explanations for this sluggish wages growth. A leading factor is that there is still slack in the labour market, with unemployment stubbornly stuck around a relatively high 5.5%. Relative to what? That, of course, is the key question.</p>
<p>Lowe suggested that 5% is the traditional estimate used to gauge full employment in Australia. But it could be lower, noting that:</p>
<p>...in a number of other countries, estimates of the unemployment rate associated with full employment are being revised lower as wage increases remain subdued at low rates of unemployment.</p>
<p>Then there’s underemployment. Lowe observed:</p>
<p>… around one-third of workers work part-time, with most of these people wanting to work part-time for personal reasons [but] around one-quarter would like to work more hours than they do; on average, they are seeking an extra two days a week … This suggests an overall labour underutilisation rate of 8¾%.</p>
<p>Turning to technology, Lowe pointed out that recent technological advances have tended to be in information technology, rather than large new machines. Moreover, a relatively small slice of successful firms in a few sectors of the economy tend to adopt this technology.</p>
<p>Those firms do well – as do their workers. But lagging firms that cannot successfully adopt these technologies get put under pressure. According to Lowe’s thinking, those firms respond by keeping a lid on wages to remain competitive.</p>
<p>All of this has implications for the real value of debt and for consumer spending, As Lowe put it:</p>
<p>Many people who borrowed expected their incomes to grow at something like the old rate rather than the current rate.</p>
<p>Well, indeed.</p>
<p>The really candid part came when Lowe concluded with what this meant for monetary policy. It is worth quoting him in full:</p>
<p>Any increase in interest rates, however, still looks to be some time away. The [RBA] board will want to have reasonable confidence that inflation is picking up to be consistent with the medium-term target and that slack in the labour market is lessening. At this stage, a sustained pick-up in inflation to around the midpoint of the target range is likely to require faster wages growth than we are currently experiencing. There are reasonable grounds to expect that this increase in wages growth will occur. But, for the reasons I have spoken about today, this increase is likely to be only gradual. Given this, there is not a strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy.</p>
<p>This is a striking statement. First, central bankers are usually intentionally vague about how they make policy. Not so Lowe in this speech. He essentially said there would be no rise in interest rates until wages growth is above 3%. Wow!</p>
<p>My first reaction, after the shock at his candidness wore off, was “that could be a while”. But if that’s how the RBA is really thinking about this, then predictions of no rate rise this year are not only solid, but you can lock in a 1.5% cash rate for 2019, too.</p>
<p>The factors that could boost wages growth enough to get back to historical levels are slow-moving – centred around changes in labour-market policy and technology.</p>
<p>This all contrasts rather starkly with the United States. On Wednesday the United States Federal Reserve <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20180613a1.pdf" target="_blank">raised official interest rates by 25 basis points</a> – the second such bump this year. The Fed also signalled two more hikes this year.</p>
<p>In the US unemployment is <a href="https://ycharts.com/indicators/unemployment_rate" target="_blank">down to 3.8% and inflation is picking up</a>. Fed chair Jay Powell needs to raise rates steadily to avoid inflation being too high, as opposed to too low.</p>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98240/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">I bet Governor Lowe wishes he had that problem to navigate.</p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-poor-wage-growth-means-interest-rates-could-be-low-for-a-long-time-98240" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Poor wage growth means interest rates could be low for a long time: Richard Holden

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<h1>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/saul-eslake-665" style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;">Saul Eslake</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;">, </span><em style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;"><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a></em>
</h1>
<p>Do higher profits necessarily lead to higher wages? The answer, as borne out by the data below, might surprise you. In fact, wages growth is more likely to arise from smart policy settings that directly boost economic and employment growth.</p>
<p>Australian wages growth is, as Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2017/sp-gov-2017-09-21">recently noted</a>, “the slowest since at least the mid-1960s”. Treasurer Scott Morrison recently <a href="https://sjm.ministers.treasury.gov.au/media-release/085-2017/" target="_blank">asserted</a> that a sustained <em>increase</em> in profitability is a prerequisite for a pick-up in wages growth.</p>
<p>But there is little data to support the idea that wages and profits are connected.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188524/width754/file-20171003-3782-1ws0esq.png" alt=""><span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></p>
<p>There does not appear to be any “leading” relationship between growth in pre-tax company profits and growth in wages, even if the mining sector (which accounts for a good deal of the fluctuations in profit growth over the past dozen years) is excluded.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188527/width754/file-20171003-3124-1ta5b97.png" alt=""><span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a></span></p>
<p>Some relationship between profit <em>margins</em> (that is, profits as a proportion of sales revenue) and wages might have existed in the past. However, that appears to have broken down in the years since the peak of the commodities boom, in 2011-12, as you can see in the following chart.</p>
<p>Since then, aggregate profit margins have risen to levels not seen since the early 2000s, but wages growth has continued to slow.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188529/width754/file-20171003-12163-1qrzjgd.png" alt=""><span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a></span></p>
<p>Rather than being a precursor to faster growth in wages, the growth in Australian company profits in recent years appears to be part of a broader global pattern: the share of aggregate income accruing to capital is rising while that accruing to labour is falling.</p>
<h2>In line with global trends</h2>
<p>Researchers from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have provided a plausible set of explanations for these developments in their <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2017/09/19/%7E/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2017/October/pdf/analytical-chapters/c2.ashx" target="_blank">latest World Economic Outlook</a>. They contend that “macroeconomic factors such as labour market slack, inflation expectations and trend productivity growth can account for the bulk of the variation in nominal wage growth … in recent years”.</p>
<p>Echoing <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2017/feb/box-b-underemployment-and-labour-market-spare-capacity" target="_blank">a point frequently made by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)</a>, the IMF researchers note: “True labour market slack may … be larger than suggested by headline unemployment rates.” This is because of the growth in the number of workers working fewer hours than they are willing and able to work.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-wage-growth-contributes-to-the-economy-75625" target="_blank">Explainer: how wage growth contributes to the economy</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>The researchers find that even in economies where unemployment rates are now below their pre-GFC averages, “involuntary part-time employment … appears to be weighing on wages growth”, alongside “slower-moving drivers … such as automation, diminished medium-term growth expectations and the growing importance of the services sector”.</p>
<p>The IMF researchers conclude that, overall, “wage growth … may continue to remain subdued until involuntary part-time employment diminishes or trend productivity growth picks up”.</p>
<p>All of this suggests that policy measures that seek, in the first instance, to (further) lift corporate profits will not enhance the prospects of a pick-up in wages growth in Australia.</p>
<h2>Preferential taxation not the answer</h2>
<p>As I’ve argued <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-small-business-tax-cuts-arent-likely-to-boost-jobs-and-growth-72658" target="_blank">previously</a>, there’s absolutely no evidence that preferentially taxing small businesses will do anything to boost innovation, productivity, investment or employment. Hence, there’s no reason to think it will do anything to lift wages growth.</p>
<p>Nor is there any <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://economics.mit.edu/files/7666" target="_blank">compelling empirical evidence</a> to suggest that across-the-board tax cuts for larger companies will have any significant impact on employment and hence on wages.</p>
<p>Rather, an acceleration in wages growth is more likely to come from policies that directly boost economic and employment growth – such as increased spending on (well-chosen) infrastructure projects – and that boost productivity growth (including well-targeted education and training initiatives).</p>
<p>A more controversial proposition may be that measures designed to reverse, in part, the shifts in the shares of national income accruing to labour and capital over the past decade or so could also help accelerate wages growth.</p>
<p><iframe style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/53kAt/5/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe></p>
<p>Partly because real wages have grown more slowly than labour productivity since the turn of the century (as you can see in the previous chart), the “profits share” of Australian national income is well above its long-run average. The “wages share” is close to a record low.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188692/width754/file-20171003-31723-6uw84z.png" alt=""><span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a></span></p>
<h2>Historical precedent</h2>
<p>In some respects, the present situation is the obverse of the “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1988/pdf/rdp8806.pdf" target="_blank">real wage overhang</a>” that emerged in the second half of the 1970s, whereby real wages surged much faster than productivity.</p>
<p>One of the main purposes of the Hawke government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-politics-explainer-the-prices-and-incomes-accord-75622" target="_blank">Prices and Incomes Accord</a> was to secure the ACTU’s acceptance that wages would grow more slowly than productivity (and fall in real terms) to eliminate this “overhang” and reduce unemployment.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-politics-explainer-the-prices-and-incomes-accord-75622" target="_blank">Australian politics explainer: the Prices and Incomes Accord</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Hence, it could be argued that what is required now is a period during which real wages grow faster than productivity to eliminate what could be termed a “real wage underhang”. That would be difficult to achieve via an accord-type process given the changes in how the labour market works since the 1980s.</p>
<p>And it would be important to ensure that real wages did not grow at a pace relative to productivity growth that led to higher unemployment.</p>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83819/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">The government could consider using its submissions to the Fair Work Commission’s annual determinations of the minimum wage, and its approach to wage negotiations with its own employees, as a way of nudging wages growth upwards.</p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/saul-eslake-665" target="_blank">Saul Eslake</a>, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888" target="_blank">University of Tasmania</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-faster-profit-growth-essential-for-a-pick-up-in-wages-growth-83819" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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Is faster profit growth essential before a pickup in wages growth? Saul Eslake

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<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Consumer confidence fell further in the past week to the lowest levels in almost a year. Why the gloom? Well, data showed wage growth remaining near 2 per cent, well below the levels of a few years ago.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Still, data in the past week showed the job market to be in good shape with job growth in the past five months the best for an equivalent period in 121⁄2 years.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Consumer confidence is also tied to the fortunes of the Aussie dollar and the currency has backed away from US80 cents.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Aussie consumers are fretting about slower wage growth, rising energy bills and higher healthcare costs. Of course at the same time the affordability of a rash of spending categories has improved such as food, clothing, travel and transport.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Consumers may say they are gloomy, but importantly they are still spending. It’s a case of watch what they do, not what they say. Real retail trade posted the best growth in the June quarter for any June quarter in the past eight years. At the same time, measures of economy-wide spending continue to show firm growth. Certainly if consumer spending was slowing, this would be reflected in business conditions and confidence – but both those metrics remain strong.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/23/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-23%20at%208.09.40%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="column"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/23/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-23%20at%208.09.40%20AM.png" alt=""></div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">One key positive in the past week – the measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item rose to +35, above the long-term average of +33.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">What do the figures show?</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Consumer sentiment
<p><span></span><span>The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating </span><span>eased 2.2 per cent from 111.7 to a near 12-month low of 109.2 in the week to August 20. Confidence is down 10.3 per cent over the year and below the average of </span>113.2 since 2014.</p>
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span> </span><span>Four of the five components of the index fell in the latest week: </span></p>
<ul>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was </span><span>down </span><span>from +5 to +3; </span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>The estimate of family finances over the next year was </span><span>down </span><span>from +23 to +16; </span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>Economic conditions over the next 12 months was </span><span>down </span><span>from -5 to -6; </span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>Economic conditions over the next 5 years was </span><span>down </span><span>from +5 to -2; </span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was </span><span>up </span><span>from +30 to +35. </span></p>
<p><span>What is the importance of the economic data? </span></p>
</li>
</ul>
<p><span> </span><span>The </span><span>ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence </span><span>closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/23/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-23%20at%208.11.08%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/23/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-23%20at%208.11.08%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</span></p>
<p>Consumers say that they aren’t overly confident at present. But they are still spending. Whilever wage growth is exceeding price growth then consumers will spend.</p>
<p>Retailers need to watch measures of consumer sentiment but not unduly worry about survey results. </p>
<p><em>Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em></p>
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Consumers wary, but still spending

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/82580/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy on a collision course with itself? Quite possibly.</p>
<p>The key data and evidence this week were employment figures in Australia, retail sales in the United States, and minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia board and US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).</p>
<p>First, the data. ABS figures released Wednesday provided more evidence of sluggish wage growth. </p>
<p>Wages nationally grew 0.5% in the June quarter, translating to 1.9% year on year. Worse still, private-sector wages grew only 1.8%, compared with 2.5% for government employees. All of this puts increased pressure on family budgets at a time when energy prices are rising rapidly.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the RBA board minutes seemed like they were describing a different economy. In terms of consumer spending, the RBA pointed to the rising values of retail sales in April and May and growth in consumption in the June quarter. The minutes also noted:</p>
<p><em>"Beyond the June quarter, rising employment and stronger household income growth were expected to support consumption growth, which was forecast to be a little above its average of recent years."</em></p>
<p>The minutes were also rosy when it came to the labour market, stating that employment had increased in every state since the start of the year, including in states with mining. The RBA noted:</p>
<p><em>"This provided further evidence that the drag on economic activity from earlier declines in the terms of trade and falling mining investment were running their course. Over this period, around 165,000 full-time jobs had been created, labour force participation had risen and average hours worked had increased."</em></p>
<p>Figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed that employment itself rose in July, with 27,900 jobs created. Unemployment rate fell from 5.7% to 5.6%, and labour force participation was a healthy-ish 65.1%.</p>
<p>I guess the only wrinkle is that these workers aren’t getting paid very much.</p>
<p>Markets and commentators widely interpreted these minutes and various other remarks by governor Philip Lowe as suggesting that the next interest rate move would be an upward one.</p>
<p>But then there’s the problem of the massive household debt Australians hold. RBA figures showed that as of March this was 190% of annual disposable income. Combine that with the fact that one-third of mortgage holders don’t have a one month buffer of payments and it makes an interest rate rise look rather risky.</p>
<p>The RBA knows this, of course, noting in the minutes:</p>
<p><em>"Members regarded conditions in the housing market and household balance sheets as continuing to warrant careful monitoring."</em></p>
<p>To summarise: growth and inflation seem to point to an interest-rate rise in the medium term; unemployment rates do too. Sluggish wages growth points to a cut, but a cut might further fuel housing prices. </p>
<p>And those high prices have left Australian households so highly leveraged that a modest rate rise could cause a wave of financial distress and perhaps mortgage defaults. That would lead to fire sales, damage bank balance sheets, and wipe billions of the market capitalisation of the four largest ASX listed companies.</p>
<p>The RBA has to raise, but it has to cut. That’s what I mean by a collision course.</p>
<p>In the US, some brighter news. Retail sales shot up 0.6% last month. This was the largest gain since December 2016, and further evidence of a strengthening economy.</p>
<p>This was reflected in the minutes of the FOMC which observed that:</p>
<p>"…economic conditions would evolve in a manner that would warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate, and that the federal funds rate was likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run."</p>
<p>The bottom line from the long FOMC minutes was that things appear to be on track, with monetary policy still helping to bolster the labour market and get inflation back in the target zone.</p>
<p>The US isn’t in the clear yet, but it looks like the Federal Reserve under Janet Yellen may have pulled off a remarkable rebuilding of the US economy.</p>
<p>In Australia it’s much less clear. With huge household debt, low wage growth, and rising energy prices, the path back to “normal” economic conditions may take longer than in the US.</p>
<p><span class="fn author-name"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a> is </span>Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW and author for The Conversation.</p>
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