<p>Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.</p>

<p>The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.</p>

<p>One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.</p>

<p>"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.</p>

<p>"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]</p>

<p>The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.</p>

<p>PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.</p>

<p>"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]</p>

<p>Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.</p>

<p>Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.</p>

<p>The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.</p>

<p>"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.</p>

<p>"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]</p>

<p>Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.</p>

<p>Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]</p>


Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

<p>Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.</p>

<p>The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]</p>

<p>“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.</p>

<p>The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]</p>

<p>“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.</p>

<p>“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]</p>

<p>Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.</p>

<p>Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.</p>

<p>The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.</p>

<p>LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.</p>

<p>Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]</p>


Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

<p>Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?</p>

<p>Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.</p>

<p>NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.</p>

<p>“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.</p>

<p>"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.</p>

<p>Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.</p>

<p>“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”</p>

<p>Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.</p>

<p>“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”</p>

<p>She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.</p>

<p>“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”</p>


Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

<p>A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325]<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.</p>

<p>“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.”<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity.<br />
&nbsp;&nbsp;<br />
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp;<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516]<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Completion is slated for early 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]</p>


Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

<p>Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.</p>

<p>Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.</p>

<p>The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.</p>

<p>Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" /></p>

<p>The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.</p>

<p>The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.</p>

<p>According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."</p>

<p>"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.</p>

<p>"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.</p>

<p>"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."</p>

<p>The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.</p>

<p>COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.</p>

<p>The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.</p>

<p><img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" /></p>

<p>Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.</p>

<p>Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.</p>

<p>Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.</p>

<p>"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.</p>

<p>"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a></em></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

Wage Growth

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<div>There's an old tradition when it comes to job numbers that goes something like this: if the numbers are crap we're doomed; and if the numbers are good then they must be wrong.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The technical term for this is <em>confirmation bias</em>.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As ever this month's <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/09/enormous-jobs-growth-in-nsw" target="_blank">booming jobs numbers</a> were treated with anything from scepticism to outright derision.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And yet the solid results have kept on coming, especially in the two most populous states. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's another bias that tends to impact people: when things have been bad, they expect bad things to continue.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And quite understandably we're seeing a lot of this in relation to weak private sector wages growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After all, soft nominal wage price growth has been around since 2015, so it's becoming quite hard to imagine that pay packets could soon begin to swell again. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But take note, because in some states this may be about to change...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Private sector wages to lift</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although it never seems to get reported anywhere, I've shown <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/07/statistical-buggery" target="_blank">several times before</a> that while the underutilisation <strong><em>rate </em></strong>is high, in volume measures terms things have been very steadily improving for the past few years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>That is to say, lots of people still want more hours of work, but the numbers of extra hours wanted has been declining over the past four years.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1YQRG8zAXOg/W51tO98q9RI/AAAAAAAAr6M/vjMLPeIRSGQWCmjRozgEk1kmQtCf41EOACLcBGAs/s1600/UU.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1YQRG8zAXOg/W51tO98q9RI/AAAAAAAAr6M/vjMLPeIRSGQWCmjRozgEk1kmQtCf41EOACLcBGAs/s640/UU.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1355"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Where is wages growth going to show up first?</div>
<div>
<br>The answer is Victoria, with construction firing up across the state <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/07/state-of-victoria-getting-under" target="_blank">on an unprecedented scale</a>.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UwNPSL_X5r4/W51uLZYH0sI/AAAAAAAAr6U/DSEyyKW3gQ0gBKzC7K9tuLxpeXKi0KoPACLcBGAs/s1600/VIC.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UwNPSL_X5r4/W51uLZYH0sI/AAAAAAAAr6U/DSEyyKW3gQ0gBKzC7K9tuLxpeXKi0KoPACLcBGAs/s640/VIC.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1402"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>And sure enough this week's figures showed that the underutilisation rate in Victoria has dived from a seasonally adjusted peak of 16.1 per cent to 12.5 per cent, with the trend pointing straight down. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>If you listen to the brilliant Business Insider <em>Devils &amp; Details</em> podcasts you'd be well across the following point thanks to the awesome deep-dive analysis of Justin Smirk at Westpac.</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Even allowing for potentially rogue seasonally adjusted figures, the trend improvement points to private sector wages growth in Victoria returning to 3<span>½</span> per cent in due course. </span></div>
<div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DcFqWNH18Q8/W52J62RyndI/AAAAAAAAr6k/tu5-dobkPmcAaQNOa42LmWHMsPB3W6ozgCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DcFqWNH18Q8/W52J62RyndI/AAAAAAAAr6k/tu5-dobkPmcAaQNOa42LmWHMsPB3W6ozgCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1331"></a></div>
</div>
<div>The recent improvement in New South Wales has been a little shallower, but the trend is quite similar, and in fact the unemployment rate in the state is now down to just 4.7 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. </div>
<p> </p>
<div>Here's the paradox of immigration: of course, it adds to the supply of labour, but it also creates demand in the economy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, as Smirk has demonstrated previously, the underutilisation in the labour force has not been behaving in a way consistent with it being solely caused by immigration. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And these numbers confirm that he's right, with the tightening labour markets being those where most immigrants are heading to.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The numbers in Victoria and New South Wales keep on improving.<br><br>This certainly won't stop the calls for lower immigration, of course, or indeed the predictions of a recession, but these numbers suggest that wages growth should pick up from here. </div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Wages growth in NSW and Victoria is coming: Pete Wargent

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<p>Global recruitment firm Robert Walters has released its salary expectations for Australian professionals in 2020, with roles in certain sectors set to experience wage growth.</p>
<p>The Robert Walters Salary Survey for 2020 predicts NSW as the state to see the greatest salary increases with property, infrastructure, and the energy sectors dominating the wage growth leaderboard.</p>
<p>“With Australia committed to long-term nation-building programs throughout 2020, it is not surprising that wages will continue to fluctuate and stimulate demand for specialist roles in the property, infrastructure and energy sectors,” said James Nicholson, Robert Walters Managing Director ANZ.</p>
<p>The top five wage growth roles are a mix of permanent and contract roles in NSW within the property, infrastructure and energy sectors.”</p>
<p>The renewables sector will witness strong wage growth, albeit from a small labour pool. There are currently 103 projects that are in construction (or due to start) in Australia, which are expected to deliver over $27 billion in investment and create over 16,000 jobs.</p>
<p>However, “While the emerging renewables sector is showing signs of promise, and the creation of some new jobs, uncertainty may linger until the Australian government articulates a more comprehensive energy policy,” said Mr Nicholson.</p>
<p>Technology and transformation continues to dominate the larger Australian wage narrative with roles such as Business Analyst positions in Victoria and Developer roles in South Australia to see 18-20% annual growth respectively, while broader sector conditions will see some roles in oversupply, confirming a two-speed market environment.</p>
<p>“Technology transformations are continuing unabated across every industry in Australia. As a result, 2020 will see employers vying for professionals with expertise in development, UX, data management and cyber security. Concerns about widespread unemployment due to automation and artificial intelligence have, so far, proved unfounded.” Mr Nicholson said.</p>
<p>Rounding out the top three industries for wage growth nationally is the financial services sector, which remains under enormous pressure from regulators, legislators, government, media and their customers.</p>
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Property industry predicted to lead 2020 in wage growth 

<html><body>
<p>Australia's seasonally adjusted wage growth has increased 2.3 percent over the year, according to The Australian Wage Price Index (WPI) released by the ABS for the September quarter. </p>
<p>Many were predicting a wage growth in the early two percent region, with a quarterly increase of around 0.6 percent.</p>
<p>ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman said seasonally adjusted, private sector wages rose 2.1 per cent and public sector wages grew 2.5 per cent, through the year to September quarter 2018.</p>
<p>"There was a higher rate of wage growth recorded across the majority of industries in comparison to this time last year, reflecting the influence of improved labour market conditions," Hockman said.</p>
<p>"Annual wage growth at the Australia level was 2.3%, the highest growth rate since September quarter 2015."</p>
<p>Economist Stephen Koukoulas tweeted his disappointment after the ABS release, suggesting there was no material pick up.</p>
<p>"Yet another really soggy wages result, unfortunately," he wrote.</p>
<p>"With no minimum wage increase in next three quarters it looks like annual wages growth will revert to the 2 to 2.25 percent range."</p>
<p>ABC business reporter David Taylor was quick to highlight the lack of real growth, suggesting that the ABS are talking up the latest annual wage rise.</p>
<p>He tweeted that at 2.3 percent, the growth rate is now clearly ahead of inflation at 1.9 percent, so "most Aussie's are not going backwards," but added it is "still damn hard to get a pay rise in the private sector."</p>
<p>Annual<strong> </strong>growth to the September quarter ranged from 1.8 percent for the mining and retail trade industries to 2.8 per cent for the health care and social assistance industry.</p>
<p>Western Australia recorded the lowest through the year wage growth of 1.8 per cent while Tasmania recorded the highest of 2.6 per cent. </p>
<p>The Reserve Bank will have had all eyes on the announcement, with a wage growth rise a key driver in speeding up GDP growth, which they've ambitiously forecast to hit 3.5 percent by December.</p>
<p>RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle said the RBA are anticipating wage growth will continue to pick up gradually as the unemployment rate declines and the adjustment following the end of the mining boom is close to runnings its course.</p>
<p>"Around one-quarter of all employees will have received a 3.5 percent pay rise following the increase in national minimum and award wages on July 1," Debelle said.</p>
<p>"For some retail and public sector employees, we are also seeing some new enterprise bargaining agreements signed following a lengthy period where wages had been frozen."</p>
<p>Debelle suggested that the slow wage growth over recent years can be attributed somewhat to workers reluctance to leave their jobs and go after a better paying job.</p>
<p>"One of the factors contributing to this is the low level of voluntary job turnover. Workers tend to choose to leave their job for a better job – be it in conditions or pay," he said.</p>
<p>"The fact that little of this is occurring is likely to be contributing to the subdued wages growth."</p>
<p>"Some firms are attempting to retain staff by using non-wage incentives, including flexible work arrangements, shares, subsidised gym memberships, development opportunities and additional annual leave."</p>
<p data-gtm-vis-recent-on-screen-6236702_632="68492" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-6236702_632="68492" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-6236702_632="4000" data-gtm-vis-has-fired-6236702_632="1">"Over the past few years, there has been a large increase in vacancies but only a small decline in the unemployment rate to date," he said.</p>
<p>IFM Investors chief economist Alex Joiner called the wage growth release "right on expectations."</p>
<p>"Notable from the ABS that all types of wages growth were better in these data, EBAs, awards and individual arrangements - seemingly a positive for at least solid outcomes to keep coming in the next few quarters - assuming the labour market holds up," he tweeted.</p>
<p>Westpac's David Goodman said that despite the growth being muted, in annual terms at least wages are heading in the right direction.</p>
<p>Paul Bloxham, chief economist at HSBC, told the Australian Financial Review that a positive swing in wage growth would be encouraging for the RBA. </p>
<p>He said if wages improve, and continue to do so over the coming months, there’s no doubt that the RBA could consider raising rates as early as mid-2019.</p>
<p><span> </span></p>
<p> </p>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Muted wages growth leaves RBA on interest rate rise wait and see

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<p>This week Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe gave <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/sp-gov-2018-06-13" target="_blank">one of the more revealing speeches</a> one is likely to hear from a central banker.</p>
<p>It touched on many of the recurring themes in this column – sluggish wage growth, crazy levels of household debt, persistently low inflation, a long period of low interest rates, and a chunk of the country feeling they are not sharing in national prosperity.</p>
<p>But, most strikingly, Lowe hinted that the RBA’s official interest rate – the cash rate – might not rise until wage growth returns to the long-term trend.</p>
<p>Lowe began with the following familiar fact:</p>
<p>Over recent times, wages growth around the 2% mark has become the norm in Australia. Some time back, the norm was more like 3 to 4%.</p>
<p>He then turned to a range of possible explanations for this sluggish wages growth. A leading factor is that there is still slack in the labour market, with unemployment stubbornly stuck around a relatively high 5.5%. Relative to what? That, of course, is the key question.</p>
<p>Lowe suggested that 5% is the traditional estimate used to gauge full employment in Australia. But it could be lower, noting that:</p>
<p>...in a number of other countries, estimates of the unemployment rate associated with full employment are being revised lower as wage increases remain subdued at low rates of unemployment.</p>
<p>Then there’s underemployment. Lowe observed:</p>
<p>… around one-third of workers work part-time, with most of these people wanting to work part-time for personal reasons [but] around one-quarter would like to work more hours than they do; on average, they are seeking an extra two days a week … This suggests an overall labour underutilisation rate of 8¾%.</p>
<p>Turning to technology, Lowe pointed out that recent technological advances have tended to be in information technology, rather than large new machines. Moreover, a relatively small slice of successful firms in a few sectors of the economy tend to adopt this technology.</p>
<p>Those firms do well – as do their workers. But lagging firms that cannot successfully adopt these technologies get put under pressure. According to Lowe’s thinking, those firms respond by keeping a lid on wages to remain competitive.</p>
<p>All of this has implications for the real value of debt and for consumer spending, As Lowe put it:</p>
<p>Many people who borrowed expected their incomes to grow at something like the old rate rather than the current rate.</p>
<p>Well, indeed.</p>
<p>The really candid part came when Lowe concluded with what this meant for monetary policy. It is worth quoting him in full:</p>
<p>Any increase in interest rates, however, still looks to be some time away. The [RBA] board will want to have reasonable confidence that inflation is picking up to be consistent with the medium-term target and that slack in the labour market is lessening. At this stage, a sustained pick-up in inflation to around the midpoint of the target range is likely to require faster wages growth than we are currently experiencing. There are reasonable grounds to expect that this increase in wages growth will occur. But, for the reasons I have spoken about today, this increase is likely to be only gradual. Given this, there is not a strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy.</p>
<p>This is a striking statement. First, central bankers are usually intentionally vague about how they make policy. Not so Lowe in this speech. He essentially said there would be no rise in interest rates until wages growth is above 3%. Wow!</p>
<p>My first reaction, after the shock at his candidness wore off, was “that could be a while”. But if that’s how the RBA is really thinking about this, then predictions of no rate rise this year are not only solid, but you can lock in a 1.5% cash rate for 2019, too.</p>
<p>The factors that could boost wages growth enough to get back to historical levels are slow-moving – centred around changes in labour-market policy and technology.</p>
<p>This all contrasts rather starkly with the United States. On Wednesday the United States Federal Reserve <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20180613a1.pdf" target="_blank">raised official interest rates by 25 basis points</a> – the second such bump this year. The Fed also signalled two more hikes this year.</p>
<p>In the US unemployment is <a href="https://ycharts.com/indicators/unemployment_rate" target="_blank">down to 3.8% and inflation is picking up</a>. Fed chair Jay Powell needs to raise rates steadily to avoid inflation being too high, as opposed to too low.</p>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98240/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">I bet Governor Lowe wishes he had that problem to navigate.</p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-poor-wage-growth-means-interest-rates-could-be-low-for-a-long-time-98240" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Poor wage growth means interest rates could be low for a long time: Richard Holden

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<h1>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/saul-eslake-665" style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;">Saul Eslake</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;">, </span><em style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;"><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a></em>
</h1>
<p>Do higher profits necessarily lead to higher wages? The answer, as borne out by the data below, might surprise you. In fact, wages growth is more likely to arise from smart policy settings that directly boost economic and employment growth.</p>
<p>Australian wages growth is, as Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2017/sp-gov-2017-09-21">recently noted</a>, “the slowest since at least the mid-1960s”. Treasurer Scott Morrison recently <a href="https://sjm.ministers.treasury.gov.au/media-release/085-2017/" target="_blank">asserted</a> that a sustained <em>increase</em> in profitability is a prerequisite for a pick-up in wages growth.</p>
<p>But there is little data to support the idea that wages and profits are connected.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188524/width754/file-20171003-3782-1ws0esq.png" alt=""><span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></p>
<p>There does not appear to be any “leading” relationship between growth in pre-tax company profits and growth in wages, even if the mining sector (which accounts for a good deal of the fluctuations in profit growth over the past dozen years) is excluded.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188527/width754/file-20171003-3124-1ta5b97.png" alt=""><span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a></span></p>
<p>Some relationship between profit <em>margins</em> (that is, profits as a proportion of sales revenue) and wages might have existed in the past. However, that appears to have broken down in the years since the peak of the commodities boom, in 2011-12, as you can see in the following chart.</p>
<p>Since then, aggregate profit margins have risen to levels not seen since the early 2000s, but wages growth has continued to slow.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188529/width754/file-20171003-12163-1qrzjgd.png" alt=""><span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a></span></p>
<p>Rather than being a precursor to faster growth in wages, the growth in Australian company profits in recent years appears to be part of a broader global pattern: the share of aggregate income accruing to capital is rising while that accruing to labour is falling.</p>
<h2>In line with global trends</h2>
<p>Researchers from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have provided a plausible set of explanations for these developments in their <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2017/09/19/%7E/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2017/October/pdf/analytical-chapters/c2.ashx" target="_blank">latest World Economic Outlook</a>. They contend that “macroeconomic factors such as labour market slack, inflation expectations and trend productivity growth can account for the bulk of the variation in nominal wage growth … in recent years”.</p>
<p>Echoing <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2017/feb/box-b-underemployment-and-labour-market-spare-capacity" target="_blank">a point frequently made by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)</a>, the IMF researchers note: “True labour market slack may … be larger than suggested by headline unemployment rates.” This is because of the growth in the number of workers working fewer hours than they are willing and able to work.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-wage-growth-contributes-to-the-economy-75625" target="_blank">Explainer: how wage growth contributes to the economy</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>The researchers find that even in economies where unemployment rates are now below their pre-GFC averages, “involuntary part-time employment … appears to be weighing on wages growth”, alongside “slower-moving drivers … such as automation, diminished medium-term growth expectations and the growing importance of the services sector”.</p>
<p>The IMF researchers conclude that, overall, “wage growth … may continue to remain subdued until involuntary part-time employment diminishes or trend productivity growth picks up”.</p>
<p>All of this suggests that policy measures that seek, in the first instance, to (further) lift corporate profits will not enhance the prospects of a pick-up in wages growth in Australia.</p>
<h2>Preferential taxation not the answer</h2>
<p>As I’ve argued <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-small-business-tax-cuts-arent-likely-to-boost-jobs-and-growth-72658" target="_blank">previously</a>, there’s absolutely no evidence that preferentially taxing small businesses will do anything to boost innovation, productivity, investment or employment. Hence, there’s no reason to think it will do anything to lift wages growth.</p>
<p>Nor is there any <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://economics.mit.edu/files/7666" target="_blank">compelling empirical evidence</a> to suggest that across-the-board tax cuts for larger companies will have any significant impact on employment and hence on wages.</p>
<p>Rather, an acceleration in wages growth is more likely to come from policies that directly boost economic and employment growth – such as increased spending on (well-chosen) infrastructure projects – and that boost productivity growth (including well-targeted education and training initiatives).</p>
<p>A more controversial proposition may be that measures designed to reverse, in part, the shifts in the shares of national income accruing to labour and capital over the past decade or so could also help accelerate wages growth.</p>
<p><iframe style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/53kAt/5/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe></p>
<p>Partly because real wages have grown more slowly than labour productivity since the turn of the century (as you can see in the previous chart), the “profits share” of Australian national income is well above its long-run average. The “wages share” is close to a record low.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188692/width754/file-20171003-31723-6uw84z.png" alt=""><span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a></span></p>
<h2>Historical precedent</h2>
<p>In some respects, the present situation is the obverse of the “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1988/pdf/rdp8806.pdf" target="_blank">real wage overhang</a>” that emerged in the second half of the 1970s, whereby real wages surged much faster than productivity.</p>
<p>One of the main purposes of the Hawke government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-politics-explainer-the-prices-and-incomes-accord-75622" target="_blank">Prices and Incomes Accord</a> was to secure the ACTU’s acceptance that wages would grow more slowly than productivity (and fall in real terms) to eliminate this “overhang” and reduce unemployment.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-politics-explainer-the-prices-and-incomes-accord-75622" target="_blank">Australian politics explainer: the Prices and Incomes Accord</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Hence, it could be argued that what is required now is a period during which real wages grow faster than productivity to eliminate what could be termed a “real wage underhang”. That would be difficult to achieve via an accord-type process given the changes in how the labour market works since the 1980s.</p>
<p>And it would be important to ensure that real wages did not grow at a pace relative to productivity growth that led to higher unemployment.</p>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83819/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">The government could consider using its submissions to the Fair Work Commission’s annual determinations of the minimum wage, and its approach to wage negotiations with its own employees, as a way of nudging wages growth upwards.</p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/saul-eslake-665" target="_blank">Saul Eslake</a>, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888" target="_blank">University of Tasmania</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-faster-profit-growth-essential-for-a-pick-up-in-wages-growth-83819" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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Is faster profit growth essential before a pickup in wages growth? Saul Eslake

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<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Consumer confidence fell further in the past week to the lowest levels in almost a year. Why the gloom? Well, data showed wage growth remaining near 2 per cent, well below the levels of a few years ago.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Still, data in the past week showed the job market to be in good shape with job growth in the past five months the best for an equivalent period in 121⁄2 years.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Consumer confidence is also tied to the fortunes of the Aussie dollar and the currency has backed away from US80 cents.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Aussie consumers are fretting about slower wage growth, rising energy bills and higher healthcare costs. Of course at the same time the affordability of a rash of spending categories has improved such as food, clothing, travel and transport.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Consumers may say they are gloomy, but importantly they are still spending. It’s a case of watch what they do, not what they say. Real retail trade posted the best growth in the June quarter for any June quarter in the past eight years. At the same time, measures of economy-wide spending continue to show firm growth. Certainly if consumer spending was slowing, this would be reflected in business conditions and confidence – but both those metrics remain strong.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/23/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-23%20at%208.09.40%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="column"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/23/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-23%20at%208.09.40%20AM.png" alt=""></div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">One key positive in the past week – the measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item rose to +35, above the long-term average of +33.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">What do the figures show?</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Consumer sentiment
<p><span></span><span>The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating </span><span>eased 2.2 per cent from 111.7 to a near 12-month low of 109.2 in the week to August 20. Confidence is down 10.3 per cent over the year and below the average of </span>113.2 since 2014.</p>
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<p><span> </span><span>Four of the five components of the index fell in the latest week: </span></p>
<ul>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was </span><span>down </span><span>from +5 to +3; </span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>The estimate of family finances over the next year was </span><span>down </span><span>from +23 to +16; </span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>Economic conditions over the next 12 months was </span><span>down </span><span>from -5 to -6; </span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>Economic conditions over the next 5 years was </span><span>down </span><span>from +5 to -2; </span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was </span><span>up </span><span>from +30 to +35. </span></p>
<p><span>What is the importance of the economic data? </span></p>
</li>
</ul>
<p><span> </span><span>The </span><span>ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence </span><span>closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/23/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-23%20at%208.11.08%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/23/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-23%20at%208.11.08%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</span></p>
<p>Consumers say that they aren’t overly confident at present. But they are still spending. Whilever wage growth is exceeding price growth then consumers will spend.</p>
<p>Retailers need to watch measures of consumer sentiment but not unduly worry about survey results. </p>
<p><em>Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em></p>
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Consumers wary, but still spending

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/82580/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy on a collision course with itself? Quite possibly.</p>
<p>The key data and evidence this week were employment figures in Australia, retail sales in the United States, and minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia board and US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).</p>
<p>First, the data. ABS figures released Wednesday provided more evidence of sluggish wage growth. </p>
<p>Wages nationally grew 0.5% in the June quarter, translating to 1.9% year on year. Worse still, private-sector wages grew only 1.8%, compared with 2.5% for government employees. All of this puts increased pressure on family budgets at a time when energy prices are rising rapidly.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the RBA board minutes seemed like they were describing a different economy. In terms of consumer spending, the RBA pointed to the rising values of retail sales in April and May and growth in consumption in the June quarter. The minutes also noted:</p>
<p><em>"Beyond the June quarter, rising employment and stronger household income growth were expected to support consumption growth, which was forecast to be a little above its average of recent years."</em></p>
<p>The minutes were also rosy when it came to the labour market, stating that employment had increased in every state since the start of the year, including in states with mining. The RBA noted:</p>
<p><em>"This provided further evidence that the drag on economic activity from earlier declines in the terms of trade and falling mining investment were running their course. Over this period, around 165,000 full-time jobs had been created, labour force participation had risen and average hours worked had increased."</em></p>
<p>Figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed that employment itself rose in July, with 27,900 jobs created. Unemployment rate fell from 5.7% to 5.6%, and labour force participation was a healthy-ish 65.1%.</p>
<p>I guess the only wrinkle is that these workers aren’t getting paid very much.</p>
<p>Markets and commentators widely interpreted these minutes and various other remarks by governor Philip Lowe as suggesting that the next interest rate move would be an upward one.</p>
<p>But then there’s the problem of the massive household debt Australians hold. RBA figures showed that as of March this was 190% of annual disposable income. Combine that with the fact that one-third of mortgage holders don’t have a one month buffer of payments and it makes an interest rate rise look rather risky.</p>
<p>The RBA knows this, of course, noting in the minutes:</p>
<p><em>"Members regarded conditions in the housing market and household balance sheets as continuing to warrant careful monitoring."</em></p>
<p>To summarise: growth and inflation seem to point to an interest-rate rise in the medium term; unemployment rates do too. Sluggish wages growth points to a cut, but a cut might further fuel housing prices. </p>
<p>And those high prices have left Australian households so highly leveraged that a modest rate rise could cause a wave of financial distress and perhaps mortgage defaults. That would lead to fire sales, damage bank balance sheets, and wipe billions of the market capitalisation of the four largest ASX listed companies.</p>
<p>The RBA has to raise, but it has to cut. That’s what I mean by a collision course.</p>
<p>In the US, some brighter news. Retail sales shot up 0.6% last month. This was the largest gain since December 2016, and further evidence of a strengthening economy.</p>
<p>This was reflected in the minutes of the FOMC which observed that:</p>
<p>"…economic conditions would evolve in a manner that would warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate, and that the federal funds rate was likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run."</p>
<p>The bottom line from the long FOMC minutes was that things appear to be on track, with monetary policy still helping to bolster the labour market and get inflation back in the target zone.</p>
<p>The US isn’t in the clear yet, but it looks like the Federal Reserve under Janet Yellen may have pulled off a remarkable rebuilding of the US economy.</p>
<p>In Australia it’s much less clear. With huge household debt, low wage growth, and rising energy prices, the path back to “normal” economic conditions may take longer than in the US.</p>
<p><span class="fn author-name"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a> is </span>Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW and author for The Conversation.</p>
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