<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-48" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:55d7c6ac-8e6d-4881-ad49-0ed9bf66d1cc-23" dir="auto">
<p data-end="447" data-start="0">Melbourne’s apartment market entered 2026 with renewed momentum, but the recovery is uneven, policy-driven, and increasingly shaped by constrained supply.</p>

<p data-end="447" data-start="0">According to the RPM Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), apartments have begun to outperform detached housing on key metrics,yet that performance is occurring against a backdrop of falling approvals and a tightening development pipeline.</p>

<p data-end="904" data-start="449">At the end of 2025, Melbourne unit values reached a three-year high of $656,500, recording quarterly growth of two per cent. That figure edged ahead of the 1.8 per cent growth recorded in the house market over the same period, marking a notable shift in relative performance. While modest in absolute terms, the outperformance is significant given the sustained dominance of houses through much of the previous cycle.</p>

<p data-end="1420" data-start="968">This shift has been driven in large part by policy. The federal government’s expanded five per cent Deposit Scheme has had a disproportionate impact on apartment demand, particularly in Melbourne where the $950,000 price cap captures a large share of medium- and high-density stock.</p>

<p data-end="1420" data-start="968">As RPM notes, the scheme “heavily favours medium and high-density dwellings,” effectively accelerating demand in the apartment sector.</p>

<p data-end="1822" data-start="1422">The impact is most visible in buyer activity. Victoria recorded more than 43,000 new housing loans in Q4 2025, the highest quarterly volume since mid-2022 and one of the strongest results in over a decade. This lift was broad-based across all buyer types, with first home buyers, owner-occupiers and investors all returning to the market with greater confidence.</p>

<p data-end="2308" data-start="1876">This surge in demand has flowed directly into apartment pricing, particularly in Melbourne’s middle and outer rings. Middle-ring unit values reached approximately $757,500, a four-year high, while outer-ring units climbed to a record $650,000. Quarterly growth of 2.9 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively significantly outpaced both the inner ring (0.8 per cent) and the broader house market.</p>

<p data-end="966" data-start="906">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="966" data-start="906"><img alt="RPM" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4628dde5-ad63-4b03-b18e-77d0f750e2aa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-24%20at%209.23.32%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ig6mqc7Oz7UaszRuzULrGtLPUxGf4NJC" /></p>

<p data-end="2353" data-start="2310">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="2746" data-start="2355">The divergence between apartments and houses is also being shaped by affordability. Detached housing remains out of reach for many buyers, pushing demand toward apartments as a more accessible entry point into well-located suburbs. This is particularly evident among first home buyers and downsizers, both of whom are increasingly prioritising location, amenity and lifestyle over land size.</p>

<p data-end="3059" data-start="2748">At the same time, population growth continues to underpin demand. Victoria added more than 122,000 residents in the year to Q3 2025, with Melbourne attracting both overseas migrants and interstate movers, partly due to its relative affordability compared to other capitals.</p>

<p data-end="3115" data-start="3061">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3115" data-start="3061"><img alt="Population" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="49e10567-a8b3-47c3-afbd-290f0bb62c49" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-24%20at%209.22.25%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=.2Drmko4TPh02X55JdF3mIC1EcG0ZfGl" /></p>

<p data-end="3207" data-start="3117">However, the most critical factor shaping the apartment market is not demand, it is supply.</p>

<p data-end="3663" data-start="3209">Apartment approvals across Greater Melbourne have fallen sharply, signalling a constrained pipeline of future stock. In Q4 2025, just 2,339 apartments were approved, down 20 per cent on the previous quarter and 47 per cent lower than the same period a year earlier. On an annual basis, 11,066 apartment approvals were recorded, an improvement on the previous year, but still well below medium- and long-term averages.</p>

<p data-end="3710" data-start="3665">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3710" data-start="3665"><img alt="Apartment approvals" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="12f2e7bc-fe01-40c0-80b5-9e829b279d98" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-24%20at%209.21.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=5mnIXkXGoDgIJdAFhA0alm0cSKzEytqZ" /></p>

<p data-end="4035" data-start="3712">This decline reflects a broader contraction cycle that has been underway since 2020. As RPM notes, “apartment approvals appear to be sliding back into a downward trend,” with developers increasingly focused on launching and completing existing projects rather than initiating new ones.</p>

<p data-end="4519" data-start="4037">The reasons are well understood. Construction costs have risen more than 20 per cent since 2021, driven largely by labour shortages and material price escalation. At the same time, financing conditions have tightened, with lenders requiring higher contingencies and taking a more cautious approach to risk. Combined with recent interest rate rises, these factors have made feasibility more challenging, particularly for higher-density projects.</p>

<p data-end="4910" data-start="4521">This dynamic is creating a disconnect in the market. Demand for apartments—particularly at the more affordable end—is strengthening, while the pipeline of new supply is weakening. In the short term, this may limit the number of new projects coming to market. Over the medium term, however, it is likely to support price resilience and potentially further outperformance relative to houses.</p>

<p data-end="5296" data-start="4912">There are some signs of policy-driven supply response. The introduction of Victoria’s Mid-Rise Code, which streamlines approvals for four- to six-storey developments, is expected to improve delivery in well-serviced middle-ring locations. However, this is unlikely to materially offset the broader decline in apartment approvals in the near term.</p>

<p data-end="6044" data-start="5747">Despite the positive momentum at the end of 2025, the outlook for 2026 has become more complex. Two interest rate rises early in the year have already impacted consumer confidence, while broader cost pressures, particularly energy and fuel, are feeding through to construction and development costs.</p>

<p data-end="6206" data-start="6046">“Victoria’s built form market ended 2025 on a high, but early 2026 rate rises quickly reversed the momentum,” RPM notes.</p>

<p data-end="6548" data-start="6208">The implication is that while apartments are currently outperforming houses, the trajectory of that outperformance will depend on how these competing forces evolve. Policy support and affordability are clearly working in favour of apartments, but constrained supply and rising costs are likely to shape the pace and nature of future growth.</p>

<p data-end="6858" data-start="6550">What is increasingly clear is that apartments are playing a more central role in Melbourne’s housing market. As population growth continues and affordability pressures intensify, higher-density housing is becoming not just an alternative to detached homes, but a primary solution to the city’s housing needs.</p>
</section>


Joel Robinson

Units lead Melbourne price growth as apartments outperform houses: RPM

<p>Brunswick is set for some of its largest apartments ever delivered with the upcoming new development Frith &amp; Howarth, where the apartments are around 20 per cent larger than what has come before it in the sought-after suburb.</p>

<p>Developer Young Group focused its design on Frith &amp; Howarth around size and scale, but within a boutique building, to create a mini neighbourhood within the mid-rise development. There are just 24 apartments in the mid-rise building on Victoria Street, a short walk to Brunswick Station and the cafe and dining strip along Sydney Road.</p>

<p>“We spent hours comparing what’s currently on the market so we could offer genuine points of difference,” Young Group says, pointing to room sizing, storage, and functional planning as key drivers behind the design.</p>

<p>All of the two-bedroom apartments in the building have been snapped up, with just the large three- and four-bedroom apartments, with the biggest floorplans and best outlooks, remaining.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354139]</p>

<p>Apartments open directly into open-plan living zones where full-height glazing draws light deep into the apartment. Sliding doors extend the space outward to terraces, many oriented toward the adjacent park or back toward the city skyline.</p>

<p>Kitchens sit within this central space, anchored by sculptural island benches that reference the building’s faceted exterior language. Storage is integrated across multiple layers, overhead cabinetry, concealed joinery, and, in larger configurations, dedicated sculleries or butler’s pantries.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354137]</p>

<p>The penthouse is the largest ever offered in Brunswick. The penthouse measures nearly 400 sqm all-up, with 242 sqm of internal space complimented by a further 149 sqm of terraces.</p>

<p>It spans the whole top floor and has four bedrooms, four bathrooms, and parking for four cars.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354133]</p>

<p>Low maintenance resident amenity has been created in the form of a landscaped rooftop, complete with&nbsp;vegetable plots, outdoor cooking areas, and aflresco dining spaces, designed as a place for neighbours to gather outside of their homes.</p>

<p>“To enable connection with neighbours, generous rooftop gardens with communal spaces and outdoor cooking areas offer a chance to develop a sense of community,” says John Patrick, Principal of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/john-patrick-landscape-architects">John Patrick Landscape Architects</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Private open spaces with a selection of native and exotic plantings and gorgeous city views on the rooftop create a high-end aesthetic, with a low maintenance lifestyle. The perfect balance, so that residents can enjoy a serene living space.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354134]</p>

<p>Sustainability is embedded at both the building and apartment level. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/frith-howarth-288-290-victoria-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Frith &amp; Howarth</a> is one of only a small number of all-electric residential developments in Brunswick, supported by solar infrastructure, EV-ready parking, and high-performance glazing. These measures sit alongside less visible systems such as rainwater reuse and high-grade insulation, reducing long-term operational costs while maintaining consistent internal conditions.</p>

<p>Positioned within walking distance of Brunswick Station, Route 96 trams, and established retail along Sydney Road and Barkly Square, the development balances access to transport with proximity to open space, a combination that has become increasingly difficult to secure in inner-city sites.</p>

<p>“These exquisite homes are nestled in a culturally diverse neighbourhood, with parklands and nature right on your doorstep,” says Young Group.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134317]</p>


Frith & Howarth to deliver Brunswick’s largest apartments

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> in Brunswick is entering its final stages of construction, with the removal of the project’s last tower crane and the unveiling of the building’s full façade marking a significant milestone ahead of completion this coming spring.</p>

<p>The Park Street development, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a>&nbsp;and Mirvac Design with landscaping by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, is now largely structurally complete, with internal works progressing across the 169-apartment project opposite Princes Park.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/mirvac-construction">Mirvac Construction</a> Project Manager Sam Payne said the latest update reflects a transition from structure to refinement.</p>

<p>“Since our last update, all façade panels have been installed and the scaffolding and gantry has come down, unveiling the building in its full form for the very first time,” Payne said.</p>

<p>“A significant milestone was reached this month with the removal of our final tower crane, signalling the completion of major structural works and a pivotal step forward in the building’s transformation.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4802 project_image_fid=366856]</p>

<p>Apartments are now well advanced internally, with joinery completed to level eight and tiling to level six, alongside the delivery of a prototype apartment used to set the benchmark for the remaining residences.</p>

<p>This next phase coincides with the release of a completed furnished residence, styled by MCM House, and the introduction of private buyer tours, giving purchasers a clearer understanding of the finished product ahead of settlement.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> will comprise 169 one to four-bedroom apartments, with completion targeted for early spring. Interiors focus on natural materials and muted tones with two design schemes, while kitchens and bathrooms adopt a restrained palette anchored by stone, timber and textured finishes.</p>

<p>Bates Smart Director Jeffery Copolov said the project reflects a shared design direction centred on liveability and sustainability.</p>

<p>“Blending Mirvac and Bates Smart’s focus on wellness and sustainability, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> offers a new kind of conscious, elevated living in Melbourne’s inner north,” Copolov said.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> presents Mirvac's third parkside collaboration with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a>&nbsp;in Victoria.&nbsp;Their previous collaborations delivered two of the city’s landmark apartment buildings: The Melburnian opposite Kings Domain and The Eastbourne on Fitzroy Gardens.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4802 project_image_fid=366857]</p>

<p>A key focus of the development is its landscape-led amenity offering. The central courtyard, spanning around 600 sqm, will feature established trees and planting grown off-site, alongside communal lawns and seating areas designed for everyday use.</p>

<p>Development Manager James Gardner said the outdoor spaces are central to the project’s lifestyle positioning.</p>

<p>“<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> isn’t just a home, it’s a complete lifestyle offering, and the resident amenity is just one example of the elevated living experience the soon-to-be-complete building will be known for,” Gardner said.</p>

<p>The courtyard connects to a series of shared indoor and outdoor spaces, including a residents’ lounge, dining room, library and secondary west-facing garden area, designed as extensions of the apartments themselves.</p>

<p>Located directly opposite Princes Park and around four kilometres from the CBD, the development places residents within one of Melbourne’s most established inner-north precincts, with access to open space, transport and the retail and hospitality offerings of Brunswick and Carlton.</p>

<p>With façade works complete and landscaping and final finishes now underway, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> is moving into its most active construction phase, with permanent services and external works to be finalised in the coming months ahead of completion in spring.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4802]</p>


Mirvac’s latest landmark, Prince & Parade Brunswick, enters final construction phase

<p>Boutique Perth developer ADC has unveiled its latest project.</p>

<p>The developer, which focuses on bringing apartments to some of Perth's most premium inner-city and riverside suburbs, has launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/mos-lane-mosman-park-46-manning-street-mosman-park-wa-6012">Mos Lane</a>, 68 luxury apartments and townhouses in the heart of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mosman-park-wa-6012">Mosman Park</a>.</p>

<section data-scroll-anchor="true" data-testid="conversation-turn-124" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-69e027bc-1530-839b-a316-e9dad2cbd4d9-34" dir="auto">
<p data-end="496" data-start="78">Alongside the one-, two-, three- and four-bedroom apartments, the development will also include five two-level townhomes and two luxe penthouses. ADC is also introducing a significant retail offering for residents through Mos Lane Village, which will feature a wellness studio, fish and chips shop, barber, and florist, adding a layer of amenity not typically found in the predominantly residential Mosman Park area.</p>

<p data-end="876" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="498">Construction has already commenced on the project, which sits just a short walk from the Swan River, Mosman Park Bowls Club, and Mosman Park Golf Course.</p>

<p data-end="876" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="498">House Agency Directors Tom House and Lachlan McDonald say they are fielding the majority of buyer interest from local downsizers, as well as buyers with a long-standing affinity for Mosman Park.</p>
</section>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364591]</p>

<p>Mos Lane will comprise two buildings; Samson House and Manning House, which have been designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nelson-koo">Nelson + Koo</a>, an emerging design consultancy specialising in the masterplanning and design of mixed use places and spaces.</p>

<p>The two buildings adopt distinct architectural responses to their surroundings. Manning House references the strong roof forms of nearby homes, with floorplates oriented to maximise light and long-range views, while Samson House is organised around a central atrium designed to bring daylight deep into the building and create a greater sense of openness.</p>

<p>At ground level, the inclusion of five townhomes introduces a typology more commonly associated with Mosman Park’s established streets, each with private courtyards and direct frontage, offering a transition between traditional housing and apartment living.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364103]</p>

<p>Interiors have been led by Melbourne-based Hecker Guthrie, with an emphasis on practical, long-term liveability. Residences incorporate sculpted joinery, generous storage and flexible multi-purpose rooms that can adapt to changing household needs, whether for working from home, guest accommodation or additional living space.</p>

<p>Material selections draw on a restrained palette of textured stone, timber and neutral tones, with options for lighter or darker schemes. Detailing such as fluted glass, full-height joinery and integrated appliances is intended to balance functionality with a more refined residential finish.</p>

<p>Outdoor spaces are a consistent feature across the development, with balconies and terraces designed for dining and entertaining, and larger apartments incorporating outdoor kitchens. Orientation has been considered to allow residents to choose between morning or afternoon sun, while mature street trees and landscaped communal areas contribute to a softer streetscape.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364107]</p>

<p>Shared amenities are positioned to support both day-to-day convenience and occasional use. These include a private dining room with a caterer’s kitchen, alfresco entertaining areas, and a bookable guest suite for visiting friends and family. Additional practical features such as a resident workshop, storage facilities, car and pet wash areas, and concierge-style services for cleaning and dry-cleaning collection reflect a focus on usability.</p>

<p>Positioned between the Swan River and Cottesloe Beach, and within reach of schools such as Iona Presentation College and St Hilda’s Anglican School, the development is aimed at a broad buyer group, from downsizers seeking a lower-maintenance alternative to larger homes, through to local residents looking to remain in the area in a different housing format.</p>

<p>Mos Lane represents one of the more significant additions to Mosman Park’s limited pipeline, combining new housing supply with a village-style retail centre in a suburb where opportunities for large-scale redevelopment are relatively constrained.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=148957]</p>


Living village precinct set for Mosman Park as ADC launches Mos Lane

<p>An entity linked to I&amp;D Group Founder Ivan Filipović has filed plans for a new residential development at 188–202 Swan Street in Cremorne, targeting a prominent site within the tightly held Swan Street activity corridor.</p>

<p>The proposal seeks to redevelop the consolidated Swan Street landholding into a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/188-202-swan-street-cremorne-vic-3121">high-density mixed-use project</a>, replacing a series of existing commercial buildings with a significantly scaled residential outcome. The planning submission positions the development as a response to increasing demand for housing in well-connected inner-urban locations, particularly within established activity centres.</p>

<p>Plans outline the construction of a 14-storey building delivering 165 apartments above a four-level basement, alongside a ground-floor retail and commercial offering designed to activate the streetscape. A key feature of the scheme is a new north–south pedestrian link connecting Swan Street to Railway Place, intended to “enhance permeability and provide an active, publicly accessible connection through the site.”</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for Ivan Filipović-linked Cremorne apartment project on Swan Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7332a8f8-dd2b-483d-b86e-320658838c84" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/cremorne.png?VersionId=cXm8vAaRdHh.LpYVbecrRkjckgu9mtAF" /></p>

<p>The development will retain part of the existing built form at 198–200 Swan Street, while the remainder of the site will be cleared to accommodate the new structure. Basement levels will provide 196 car spaces and 113 bicycle spaces, with vehicle access from Railway Place. Communal amenity is distributed across the building, including a shared outdoor area on Level 1 and a rooftop terrace for residents.</p>

<p>Ground level uses include retail tenancies fronting Swan Street and the pedestrian link, a residential lobby, and a flexible commercial space positioned to support community-oriented uses. The planning report notes this space “could be offered as a flexible space within the development for community groups,” supporting short-term or longer-term occupancy arrangements.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for Ivan Filipović-linked Cremorne apartment project on Swan Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8208bf7b-cc67-485d-ad0f-1d73a74c907f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/cremorne%20lane.png?VersionId=69ctjC0txXv0zCHy7qQUpJyGwvPAT7gw" /></p>

<p>The site sits within the Swan Street Major Activity Centre, surrounded by a mix of retail, hospitality, and emerging residential development, and directly opposite tram services along Swan Street. East Richmond Station is located to the south, providing strong rail connectivity, while the broader Cremorne precinct continues to evolve as a mixed-use hub.</p>

<p>I&amp;D Group, founded by Ivan Filipović, is regarded as one of Victoria’s largest formwork contractors, partnering with major construction firms across large-scale public and private developments. The Swan Street proposal signals a move into development-backed opportunities tied to strategic inner-city sites.</p>


First Look: Plans lodged for Cremorne apartment project on Swan Street

Wage Growth

<html><body>
<div>There's an old tradition when it comes to job numbers that goes something like this: if the numbers are crap we're doomed; and if the numbers are good then they must be wrong.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The technical term for this is <em>confirmation bias</em>.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As ever this month's <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/09/enormous-jobs-growth-in-nsw" target="_blank">booming jobs numbers</a> were treated with anything from scepticism to outright derision.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And yet the solid results have kept on coming, especially in the two most populous states. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's another bias that tends to impact people: when things have been bad, they expect bad things to continue.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And quite understandably we're seeing a lot of this in relation to weak private sector wages growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After all, soft nominal wage price growth has been around since 2015, so it's becoming quite hard to imagine that pay packets could soon begin to swell again. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But take note, because in some states this may be about to change...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Private sector wages to lift</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although it never seems to get reported anywhere, I've shown <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/07/statistical-buggery" target="_blank">several times before</a> that while the underutilisation <strong><em>rate </em></strong>is high, in volume measures terms things have been very steadily improving for the past few years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>That is to say, lots of people still want more hours of work, but the numbers of extra hours wanted has been declining over the past four years.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
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<div> </div>
<div>Where is wages growth going to show up first?</div>
<div>
<br>The answer is Victoria, with construction firing up across the state <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/07/state-of-victoria-getting-under" target="_blank">on an unprecedented scale</a>.</div>
<div> </div>
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<div> </div>
<div><span>And sure enough this week's figures showed that the underutilisation rate in Victoria has dived from a seasonally adjusted peak of 16.1 per cent to 12.5 per cent, with the trend pointing straight down. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>If you listen to the brilliant Business Insider <em>Devils &amp; Details</em> podcasts you'd be well across the following point thanks to the awesome deep-dive analysis of Justin Smirk at Westpac.</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Even allowing for potentially rogue seasonally adjusted figures, the trend improvement points to private sector wages growth in Victoria returning to 3<span>½</span> per cent in due course. </span></div>
<div>
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</div>
<div>The recent improvement in New South Wales has been a little shallower, but the trend is quite similar, and in fact the unemployment rate in the state is now down to just 4.7 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. </div>
<p> </p>
<div>Here's the paradox of immigration: of course, it adds to the supply of labour, but it also creates demand in the economy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, as Smirk has demonstrated previously, the underutilisation in the labour force has not been behaving in a way consistent with it being solely caused by immigration. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And these numbers confirm that he's right, with the tightening labour markets being those where most immigrants are heading to.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The numbers in Victoria and New South Wales keep on improving.<br><br>This certainly won't stop the calls for lower immigration, of course, or indeed the predictions of a recession, but these numbers suggest that wages growth should pick up from here. </div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Wages growth in NSW and Victoria is coming: Pete Wargent

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<p>Global recruitment firm Robert Walters has released its salary expectations for Australian professionals in 2020, with roles in certain sectors set to experience wage growth.</p>
<p>The Robert Walters Salary Survey for 2020 predicts NSW as the state to see the greatest salary increases with property, infrastructure, and the energy sectors dominating the wage growth leaderboard.</p>
<p>“With Australia committed to long-term nation-building programs throughout 2020, it is not surprising that wages will continue to fluctuate and stimulate demand for specialist roles in the property, infrastructure and energy sectors,” said James Nicholson, Robert Walters Managing Director ANZ.</p>
<p>The top five wage growth roles are a mix of permanent and contract roles in NSW within the property, infrastructure and energy sectors.”</p>
<p>The renewables sector will witness strong wage growth, albeit from a small labour pool. There are currently 103 projects that are in construction (or due to start) in Australia, which are expected to deliver over $27 billion in investment and create over 16,000 jobs.</p>
<p>However, “While the emerging renewables sector is showing signs of promise, and the creation of some new jobs, uncertainty may linger until the Australian government articulates a more comprehensive energy policy,” said Mr Nicholson.</p>
<p>Technology and transformation continues to dominate the larger Australian wage narrative with roles such as Business Analyst positions in Victoria and Developer roles in South Australia to see 18-20% annual growth respectively, while broader sector conditions will see some roles in oversupply, confirming a two-speed market environment.</p>
<p>“Technology transformations are continuing unabated across every industry in Australia. As a result, 2020 will see employers vying for professionals with expertise in development, UX, data management and cyber security. Concerns about widespread unemployment due to automation and artificial intelligence have, so far, proved unfounded.” Mr Nicholson said.</p>
<p>Rounding out the top three industries for wage growth nationally is the financial services sector, which remains under enormous pressure from regulators, legislators, government, media and their customers.</p>
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Property industry predicted to lead 2020 in wage growth 

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<p>Australia's seasonally adjusted wage growth has increased 2.3 percent over the year, according to The Australian Wage Price Index (WPI) released by the ABS for the September quarter. </p>
<p>Many were predicting a wage growth in the early two percent region, with a quarterly increase of around 0.6 percent.</p>
<p>ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman said seasonally adjusted, private sector wages rose 2.1 per cent and public sector wages grew 2.5 per cent, through the year to September quarter 2018.</p>
<p>"There was a higher rate of wage growth recorded across the majority of industries in comparison to this time last year, reflecting the influence of improved labour market conditions," Hockman said.</p>
<p>"Annual wage growth at the Australia level was 2.3%, the highest growth rate since September quarter 2015."</p>
<p>Economist Stephen Koukoulas tweeted his disappointment after the ABS release, suggesting there was no material pick up.</p>
<p>"Yet another really soggy wages result, unfortunately," he wrote.</p>
<p>"With no minimum wage increase in next three quarters it looks like annual wages growth will revert to the 2 to 2.25 percent range."</p>
<p>ABC business reporter David Taylor was quick to highlight the lack of real growth, suggesting that the ABS are talking up the latest annual wage rise.</p>
<p>He tweeted that at 2.3 percent, the growth rate is now clearly ahead of inflation at 1.9 percent, so "most Aussie's are not going backwards," but added it is "still damn hard to get a pay rise in the private sector."</p>
<p>Annual<strong> </strong>growth to the September quarter ranged from 1.8 percent for the mining and retail trade industries to 2.8 per cent for the health care and social assistance industry.</p>
<p>Western Australia recorded the lowest through the year wage growth of 1.8 per cent while Tasmania recorded the highest of 2.6 per cent. </p>
<p>The Reserve Bank will have had all eyes on the announcement, with a wage growth rise a key driver in speeding up GDP growth, which they've ambitiously forecast to hit 3.5 percent by December.</p>
<p>RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle said the RBA are anticipating wage growth will continue to pick up gradually as the unemployment rate declines and the adjustment following the end of the mining boom is close to runnings its course.</p>
<p>"Around one-quarter of all employees will have received a 3.5 percent pay rise following the increase in national minimum and award wages on July 1," Debelle said.</p>
<p>"For some retail and public sector employees, we are also seeing some new enterprise bargaining agreements signed following a lengthy period where wages had been frozen."</p>
<p>Debelle suggested that the slow wage growth over recent years can be attributed somewhat to workers reluctance to leave their jobs and go after a better paying job.</p>
<p>"One of the factors contributing to this is the low level of voluntary job turnover. Workers tend to choose to leave their job for a better job – be it in conditions or pay," he said.</p>
<p>"The fact that little of this is occurring is likely to be contributing to the subdued wages growth."</p>
<p>"Some firms are attempting to retain staff by using non-wage incentives, including flexible work arrangements, shares, subsidised gym memberships, development opportunities and additional annual leave."</p>
<p data-gtm-vis-recent-on-screen-6236702_632="68492" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-6236702_632="68492" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-6236702_632="4000" data-gtm-vis-has-fired-6236702_632="1">"Over the past few years, there has been a large increase in vacancies but only a small decline in the unemployment rate to date," he said.</p>
<p>IFM Investors chief economist Alex Joiner called the wage growth release "right on expectations."</p>
<p>"Notable from the ABS that all types of wages growth were better in these data, EBAs, awards and individual arrangements - seemingly a positive for at least solid outcomes to keep coming in the next few quarters - assuming the labour market holds up," he tweeted.</p>
<p>Westpac's David Goodman said that despite the growth being muted, in annual terms at least wages are heading in the right direction.</p>
<p>Paul Bloxham, chief economist at HSBC, told the Australian Financial Review that a positive swing in wage growth would be encouraging for the RBA. </p>
<p>He said if wages improve, and continue to do so over the coming months, there’s no doubt that the RBA could consider raising rates as early as mid-2019.</p>
<p><span> </span></p>
<p> </p>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Muted wages growth leaves RBA on interest rate rise wait and see

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<p>This week Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe gave <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/sp-gov-2018-06-13" target="_blank">one of the more revealing speeches</a> one is likely to hear from a central banker.</p>
<p>It touched on many of the recurring themes in this column – sluggish wage growth, crazy levels of household debt, persistently low inflation, a long period of low interest rates, and a chunk of the country feeling they are not sharing in national prosperity.</p>
<p>But, most strikingly, Lowe hinted that the RBA’s official interest rate – the cash rate – might not rise until wage growth returns to the long-term trend.</p>
<p>Lowe began with the following familiar fact:</p>
<p>Over recent times, wages growth around the 2% mark has become the norm in Australia. Some time back, the norm was more like 3 to 4%.</p>
<p>He then turned to a range of possible explanations for this sluggish wages growth. A leading factor is that there is still slack in the labour market, with unemployment stubbornly stuck around a relatively high 5.5%. Relative to what? That, of course, is the key question.</p>
<p>Lowe suggested that 5% is the traditional estimate used to gauge full employment in Australia. But it could be lower, noting that:</p>
<p>...in a number of other countries, estimates of the unemployment rate associated with full employment are being revised lower as wage increases remain subdued at low rates of unemployment.</p>
<p>Then there’s underemployment. Lowe observed:</p>
<p>… around one-third of workers work part-time, with most of these people wanting to work part-time for personal reasons [but] around one-quarter would like to work more hours than they do; on average, they are seeking an extra two days a week … This suggests an overall labour underutilisation rate of 8¾%.</p>
<p>Turning to technology, Lowe pointed out that recent technological advances have tended to be in information technology, rather than large new machines. Moreover, a relatively small slice of successful firms in a few sectors of the economy tend to adopt this technology.</p>
<p>Those firms do well – as do their workers. But lagging firms that cannot successfully adopt these technologies get put under pressure. According to Lowe’s thinking, those firms respond by keeping a lid on wages to remain competitive.</p>
<p>All of this has implications for the real value of debt and for consumer spending, As Lowe put it:</p>
<p>Many people who borrowed expected their incomes to grow at something like the old rate rather than the current rate.</p>
<p>Well, indeed.</p>
<p>The really candid part came when Lowe concluded with what this meant for monetary policy. It is worth quoting him in full:</p>
<p>Any increase in interest rates, however, still looks to be some time away. The [RBA] board will want to have reasonable confidence that inflation is picking up to be consistent with the medium-term target and that slack in the labour market is lessening. At this stage, a sustained pick-up in inflation to around the midpoint of the target range is likely to require faster wages growth than we are currently experiencing. There are reasonable grounds to expect that this increase in wages growth will occur. But, for the reasons I have spoken about today, this increase is likely to be only gradual. Given this, there is not a strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy.</p>
<p>This is a striking statement. First, central bankers are usually intentionally vague about how they make policy. Not so Lowe in this speech. He essentially said there would be no rise in interest rates until wages growth is above 3%. Wow!</p>
<p>My first reaction, after the shock at his candidness wore off, was “that could be a while”. But if that’s how the RBA is really thinking about this, then predictions of no rate rise this year are not only solid, but you can lock in a 1.5% cash rate for 2019, too.</p>
<p>The factors that could boost wages growth enough to get back to historical levels are slow-moving – centred around changes in labour-market policy and technology.</p>
<p>This all contrasts rather starkly with the United States. On Wednesday the United States Federal Reserve <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20180613a1.pdf" target="_blank">raised official interest rates by 25 basis points</a> – the second such bump this year. The Fed also signalled two more hikes this year.</p>
<p>In the US unemployment is <a href="https://ycharts.com/indicators/unemployment_rate" target="_blank">down to 3.8% and inflation is picking up</a>. Fed chair Jay Powell needs to raise rates steadily to avoid inflation being too high, as opposed to too low.</p>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98240/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">I bet Governor Lowe wishes he had that problem to navigate.</p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-poor-wage-growth-means-interest-rates-could-be-low-for-a-long-time-98240" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Poor wage growth means interest rates could be low for a long time: Richard Holden

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<h1>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/saul-eslake-665" style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;">Saul Eslake</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;">, </span><em style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;"><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a></em>
</h1>
<p>Do higher profits necessarily lead to higher wages? The answer, as borne out by the data below, might surprise you. In fact, wages growth is more likely to arise from smart policy settings that directly boost economic and employment growth.</p>
<p>Australian wages growth is, as Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2017/sp-gov-2017-09-21">recently noted</a>, “the slowest since at least the mid-1960s”. Treasurer Scott Morrison recently <a href="https://sjm.ministers.treasury.gov.au/media-release/085-2017/" target="_blank">asserted</a> that a sustained <em>increase</em> in profitability is a prerequisite for a pick-up in wages growth.</p>
<p>But there is little data to support the idea that wages and profits are connected.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188524/width754/file-20171003-3782-1ws0esq.png" alt=""><span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></p>
<p>There does not appear to be any “leading” relationship between growth in pre-tax company profits and growth in wages, even if the mining sector (which accounts for a good deal of the fluctuations in profit growth over the past dozen years) is excluded.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188527/width754/file-20171003-3124-1ta5b97.png" alt=""><span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a></span></p>
<p>Some relationship between profit <em>margins</em> (that is, profits as a proportion of sales revenue) and wages might have existed in the past. However, that appears to have broken down in the years since the peak of the commodities boom, in 2011-12, as you can see in the following chart.</p>
<p>Since then, aggregate profit margins have risen to levels not seen since the early 2000s, but wages growth has continued to slow.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188529/width754/file-20171003-12163-1qrzjgd.png" alt=""><span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a></span></p>
<p>Rather than being a precursor to faster growth in wages, the growth in Australian company profits in recent years appears to be part of a broader global pattern: the share of aggregate income accruing to capital is rising while that accruing to labour is falling.</p>
<h2>In line with global trends</h2>
<p>Researchers from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have provided a plausible set of explanations for these developments in their <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2017/09/19/%7E/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2017/October/pdf/analytical-chapters/c2.ashx" target="_blank">latest World Economic Outlook</a>. They contend that “macroeconomic factors such as labour market slack, inflation expectations and trend productivity growth can account for the bulk of the variation in nominal wage growth … in recent years”.</p>
<p>Echoing <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2017/feb/box-b-underemployment-and-labour-market-spare-capacity" target="_blank">a point frequently made by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)</a>, the IMF researchers note: “True labour market slack may … be larger than suggested by headline unemployment rates.” This is because of the growth in the number of workers working fewer hours than they are willing and able to work.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-wage-growth-contributes-to-the-economy-75625" target="_blank">Explainer: how wage growth contributes to the economy</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>The researchers find that even in economies where unemployment rates are now below their pre-GFC averages, “involuntary part-time employment … appears to be weighing on wages growth”, alongside “slower-moving drivers … such as automation, diminished medium-term growth expectations and the growing importance of the services sector”.</p>
<p>The IMF researchers conclude that, overall, “wage growth … may continue to remain subdued until involuntary part-time employment diminishes or trend productivity growth picks up”.</p>
<p>All of this suggests that policy measures that seek, in the first instance, to (further) lift corporate profits will not enhance the prospects of a pick-up in wages growth in Australia.</p>
<h2>Preferential taxation not the answer</h2>
<p>As I’ve argued <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-small-business-tax-cuts-arent-likely-to-boost-jobs-and-growth-72658" target="_blank">previously</a>, there’s absolutely no evidence that preferentially taxing small businesses will do anything to boost innovation, productivity, investment or employment. Hence, there’s no reason to think it will do anything to lift wages growth.</p>
<p>Nor is there any <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://economics.mit.edu/files/7666" target="_blank">compelling empirical evidence</a> to suggest that across-the-board tax cuts for larger companies will have any significant impact on employment and hence on wages.</p>
<p>Rather, an acceleration in wages growth is more likely to come from policies that directly boost economic and employment growth – such as increased spending on (well-chosen) infrastructure projects – and that boost productivity growth (including well-targeted education and training initiatives).</p>
<p>A more controversial proposition may be that measures designed to reverse, in part, the shifts in the shares of national income accruing to labour and capital over the past decade or so could also help accelerate wages growth.</p>
<p><iframe style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/53kAt/5/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe></p>
<p>Partly because real wages have grown more slowly than labour productivity since the turn of the century (as you can see in the previous chart), the “profits share” of Australian national income is well above its long-run average. The “wages share” is close to a record low.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188692/width754/file-20171003-31723-6uw84z.png" alt=""><span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a></span></p>
<h2>Historical precedent</h2>
<p>In some respects, the present situation is the obverse of the “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1988/pdf/rdp8806.pdf" target="_blank">real wage overhang</a>” that emerged in the second half of the 1970s, whereby real wages surged much faster than productivity.</p>
<p>One of the main purposes of the Hawke government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-politics-explainer-the-prices-and-incomes-accord-75622" target="_blank">Prices and Incomes Accord</a> was to secure the ACTU’s acceptance that wages would grow more slowly than productivity (and fall in real terms) to eliminate this “overhang” and reduce unemployment.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-politics-explainer-the-prices-and-incomes-accord-75622" target="_blank">Australian politics explainer: the Prices and Incomes Accord</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Hence, it could be argued that what is required now is a period during which real wages grow faster than productivity to eliminate what could be termed a “real wage underhang”. That would be difficult to achieve via an accord-type process given the changes in how the labour market works since the 1980s.</p>
<p>And it would be important to ensure that real wages did not grow at a pace relative to productivity growth that led to higher unemployment.</p>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83819/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">The government could consider using its submissions to the Fair Work Commission’s annual determinations of the minimum wage, and its approach to wage negotiations with its own employees, as a way of nudging wages growth upwards.</p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/saul-eslake-665" target="_blank">Saul Eslake</a>, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888" target="_blank">University of Tasmania</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-faster-profit-growth-essential-for-a-pick-up-in-wages-growth-83819" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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Is faster profit growth essential before a pickup in wages growth? Saul Eslake

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<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Consumer confidence fell further in the past week to the lowest levels in almost a year. Why the gloom? Well, data showed wage growth remaining near 2 per cent, well below the levels of a few years ago.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Still, data in the past week showed the job market to be in good shape with job growth in the past five months the best for an equivalent period in 121⁄2 years.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Consumer confidence is also tied to the fortunes of the Aussie dollar and the currency has backed away from US80 cents.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Aussie consumers are fretting about slower wage growth, rising energy bills and higher healthcare costs. Of course at the same time the affordability of a rash of spending categories has improved such as food, clothing, travel and transport.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Consumers may say they are gloomy, but importantly they are still spending. It’s a case of watch what they do, not what they say. Real retail trade posted the best growth in the June quarter for any June quarter in the past eight years. At the same time, measures of economy-wide spending continue to show firm growth. Certainly if consumer spending was slowing, this would be reflected in business conditions and confidence – but both those metrics remain strong.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/23/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-23%20at%208.09.40%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="column"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/23/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-23%20at%208.09.40%20AM.png" alt=""></div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">One key positive in the past week – the measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item rose to +35, above the long-term average of +33.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">What do the figures show?</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Consumer sentiment
<p><span></span><span>The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating </span><span>eased 2.2 per cent from 111.7 to a near 12-month low of 109.2 in the week to August 20. Confidence is down 10.3 per cent over the year and below the average of </span>113.2 since 2014.</p>
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
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<p><span> </span><span>Four of the five components of the index fell in the latest week: </span></p>
<ul>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was </span><span>down </span><span>from +5 to +3; </span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>The estimate of family finances over the next year was </span><span>down </span><span>from +23 to +16; </span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>Economic conditions over the next 12 months was </span><span>down </span><span>from -5 to -6; </span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>Economic conditions over the next 5 years was </span><span>down </span><span>from +5 to -2; </span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was </span><span>up </span><span>from +30 to +35. </span></p>
<p><span>What is the importance of the economic data? </span></p>
</li>
</ul>
<p><span> </span><span>The </span><span>ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence </span><span>closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/23/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-23%20at%208.11.08%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/23/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-23%20at%208.11.08%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</span></p>
<p>Consumers say that they aren’t overly confident at present. But they are still spending. Whilever wage growth is exceeding price growth then consumers will spend.</p>
<p>Retailers need to watch measures of consumer sentiment but not unduly worry about survey results. </p>
<p><em>Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em></p>
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Consumers wary, but still spending

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/82580/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy on a collision course with itself? Quite possibly.</p>
<p>The key data and evidence this week were employment figures in Australia, retail sales in the United States, and minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia board and US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).</p>
<p>First, the data. ABS figures released Wednesday provided more evidence of sluggish wage growth. </p>
<p>Wages nationally grew 0.5% in the June quarter, translating to 1.9% year on year. Worse still, private-sector wages grew only 1.8%, compared with 2.5% for government employees. All of this puts increased pressure on family budgets at a time when energy prices are rising rapidly.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the RBA board minutes seemed like they were describing a different economy. In terms of consumer spending, the RBA pointed to the rising values of retail sales in April and May and growth in consumption in the June quarter. The minutes also noted:</p>
<p><em>"Beyond the June quarter, rising employment and stronger household income growth were expected to support consumption growth, which was forecast to be a little above its average of recent years."</em></p>
<p>The minutes were also rosy when it came to the labour market, stating that employment had increased in every state since the start of the year, including in states with mining. The RBA noted:</p>
<p><em>"This provided further evidence that the drag on economic activity from earlier declines in the terms of trade and falling mining investment were running their course. Over this period, around 165,000 full-time jobs had been created, labour force participation had risen and average hours worked had increased."</em></p>
<p>Figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed that employment itself rose in July, with 27,900 jobs created. Unemployment rate fell from 5.7% to 5.6%, and labour force participation was a healthy-ish 65.1%.</p>
<p>I guess the only wrinkle is that these workers aren’t getting paid very much.</p>
<p>Markets and commentators widely interpreted these minutes and various other remarks by governor Philip Lowe as suggesting that the next interest rate move would be an upward one.</p>
<p>But then there’s the problem of the massive household debt Australians hold. RBA figures showed that as of March this was 190% of annual disposable income. Combine that with the fact that one-third of mortgage holders don’t have a one month buffer of payments and it makes an interest rate rise look rather risky.</p>
<p>The RBA knows this, of course, noting in the minutes:</p>
<p><em>"Members regarded conditions in the housing market and household balance sheets as continuing to warrant careful monitoring."</em></p>
<p>To summarise: growth and inflation seem to point to an interest-rate rise in the medium term; unemployment rates do too. Sluggish wages growth points to a cut, but a cut might further fuel housing prices. </p>
<p>And those high prices have left Australian households so highly leveraged that a modest rate rise could cause a wave of financial distress and perhaps mortgage defaults. That would lead to fire sales, damage bank balance sheets, and wipe billions of the market capitalisation of the four largest ASX listed companies.</p>
<p>The RBA has to raise, but it has to cut. That’s what I mean by a collision course.</p>
<p>In the US, some brighter news. Retail sales shot up 0.6% last month. This was the largest gain since December 2016, and further evidence of a strengthening economy.</p>
<p>This was reflected in the minutes of the FOMC which observed that:</p>
<p>"…economic conditions would evolve in a manner that would warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate, and that the federal funds rate was likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run."</p>
<p>The bottom line from the long FOMC minutes was that things appear to be on track, with monetary policy still helping to bolster the labour market and get inflation back in the target zone.</p>
<p>The US isn’t in the clear yet, but it looks like the Federal Reserve under Janet Yellen may have pulled off a remarkable rebuilding of the US economy.</p>
<p>In Australia it’s much less clear. With huge household debt, low wage growth, and rising energy prices, the path back to “normal” economic conditions may take longer than in the US.</p>
<p><span class="fn author-name"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a> is </span>Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW and author for The Conversation.</p>
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