<p data-end="261" data-start="95">Prolific Gold Coast developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> is expanding its development footprint into Brisbane with a new, affordability-focused collection of apartments.</p>

<p data-end="541" data-start="263">The developer, well known for its projects in the Gold Coast’s premium beachside suburbs, last year announced its new Flourish brand. The aim is to provide a wide range of apartments at more affordable price points compared to what was otherwise available in the local market.</p>

<p data-end="775" data-start="543">Now they’re taking that blueprint to Brisbane. Their debut development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/symphony-south-brisbane-21-23-cordelia-street-south-brisbane-qld-4101">Symphony</a>, is located in the heart of South Brisbane on Cordelia Street, just around the corner from the Fish Lane precinct, the suburb’s main hospitality hub.</p>

<p data-end="845" data-start="777">[smartcode_project:default project_id=7574 project_image_fid=3444]</p>

<p data-end="1073" data-start="847">There will be 138 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, starting from $655,000. First home buyers will pay no stamp duty on a new home under the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-home-buyers-to-pay-no-stamp-duty-on-new-property-in-qld-gov-shakeup">QLD Government's new stamp duty concessions</a>, which began in May.</p>

<p data-end="1304" data-start="1075">Founder Christie Leet said the move into Brisbane represents “an incredibly exciting step” for the group, with the South Brisbane market offering “huge potential to deliver something different in a market that really needs it.”</p>

<p data-end="1506" data-start="1306">He said the project is about “helping more people live where they want to be, without compromise,” adding that Flourish homes are designed to balance quality, functionality, and price accessibility.</p>

<p data-end="1576" data-start="1508">[smartcode_project:default project_id=7574 project_image_fid=3770]</p>

<p data-end="1769" data-start="1578">Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hal-architects">HAL Architects</a> and to be built by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/lps-group">LPS Group</a>, Symphony will feature more than 1,400 sqm of communal spaces spread across three levels, aimed at fostering community and wellbeing.</p>

<p data-end="2041" data-start="1771">A ground floor café or retail space will activate the streetscape, while the lower rooftop will house workspaces, a gym, and private dining areas. The upper rooftop will deliver resort-style amenities, including a heated pool, cabanas, and a dedicated wellness centre.</p>

<p data-end="2340" data-start="2043">Situated at the meeting point of South Bank, West End, and Fish Lane, Symphony places residents in one of Brisbane’s most connected and culturally vibrant neighbourhoods. The site is within walking distance of South Bank’s galleries, theatres, and riverside parklands, as well as Brisbane’s CBD.</p>

<p data-end="2614" data-start="2342">Brisbane’s ongoing infrastructure pipeline, including Cross River Rail, Queen’s Wharf, and the Brisbane Metro, is set to further enhance the area’s connectivity ahead of the 2032 Olympic Games, strengthening South Brisbane’s appeal to both owner-occupiers and investors.</p>

<p data-end="2684" data-start="2616">[smartcode_project:default project_id=7574 project_image_fid=5155]</p>

<p data-end="2848" data-start="2686">Sherpa plans to officially launch Symphony to market in October 2025, with construction due to commence in December 2025 and completion anticipated in Q3 2028.</p>

<p data-end="3123" data-start="2850">The launch follows the strong performance of Sherpa’s first Flourish development, Amargo, in Palm Beach, which is 80 per cent sold.</p>

<p data-end="3174" data-start="3125">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7574]</p>


Joel Robinson

Sherpa opens pre-release for debut Brisbane apartment development, Symphony

<p data-end="162" data-start="73">The small southern Gold Coast suburb of Bilinga rarely sees new apartment developments.</p>

<p data-end="394" data-start="164">The last launch was Pipis in late 2023 — a boutique project of just 19 half- and full-floor beachfront apartments. Opportunities to buy into a development with more affordable configurations are few and far between.</p>

<p data-end="497" data-start="396">Enter <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bilinga-house-107-golden-four-drive-bilinga-qld-4225">Bilinga House</a> — 47 two- and three-bedroom apartments priced from just under $1.2 million.</p>

<p data-end="569" data-start="499">[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]</p>

<p data-end="694" data-start="571">Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/centa-property-group">Centa Property Group</a>, Bilinga House is located on Golden Four Drive, just 200 metres from Bilinga Beach.</p>

<p data-end="964" data-start="696">Designed by renowned architecture firm <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, the five-storey building embraces a soft, neutral palette to maximise natural light and capture sea breezes. Floorplans feature generous built-in storage, contemporary kitchens, and master suites with ensuites.</p>

<p data-end="1121" data-start="966">Residents will enjoy access to a pool, gym, and sauna, along with professional onsite management. Each apartment includes at least one secure basement car space.</p>

<p data-end="1193" data-start="1123">[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5335]</p>

<p data-end="1430" data-start="1195">Location is one of Bilinga House’s biggest drawcards. The fact that it’s not absolute beachfront means pricing is considerably more affordable. Many apartments still offer beach and ocean views, and the sand is just a short 200-metre stroll away.</p>

<p data-end="1835" data-start="1432">Another bonus for off the plan buyers is the proposed Stage 4 extension of the Gold Coast Light Rail, which will run along Golden Four Drive to Coolangatta and Kirra — arguably the most transformed pocket of the southern Gold Coast over the past five years. Bilinga House is also just a short walk from the North Kirra Surf Life Saving Club.</p>

<p data-end="1835" data-start="1432">The line will also connect to Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise, Main Beach, and as far north as Helensvale, where there’s a train link to Brisbane.</p>

<p data-end="1939" data-start="1837">Construction will be undertaken by renowned builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/greyburn">Greyburn</a>, with completion targeted for late 2027.</p>

<p data-end="1992" data-start="1941">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150037]</p>


Bilinga House launches in booming southern Gold Coast pocket

<p style="line-height:1.3800000000000001">Northland Group’s Central Quarter apartment development, located in the heart of Merrylands, ticks every box that buyers consider when purchasing a brand-new apartment.</p>

<p>CQ, currently under construction on Pitt Street, will comprise 194 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments in the heart of the growing suburb.</p>

<h2>Guaranteed Delivery</h2>

<p>First and foremost is the guarantee of delivery. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/northland">Northland</a> has only just launched the development, despite being close to topping out the main structure. They progressed well into construction before bringing the project to market, giving buyers confidence that the development is genuinely moving ahead.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5660 project_image_fid=1674]</p>

<h2>Quality Assurance</h2>

<p>The second — and perhaps most important — consideration for new apartment buyers is not just whether the project will be completed, but whether it will be finished to a high standard. Northland Group is the only developer in Merrylands to take out Resilience Insurance’s Latent Defects Insurance, offering buyers protection from any structural or waterproofing issues for 10 years after completion. Northland also has a vastly experienced construction team, having been building across Sydney for the best part of three decades.&nbsp;</p>

<h2>Prime Location</h2>

<p>The third pillar, which is paramount, is location — and how well the apartment fits into a buyer’s lifestyle. It must be well-connected to both transport and local amenities. <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/central-quarter-merrylands-242-252-pitt-street-merrylands-nsw-2160">Central Quarter</a> occupies a prime site on Pitt Street, right next to the Merrylands Bus Interchange and Merrylands Train Station. This offers direct access to Parramatta, just one stop away, and places the CBD within 35 minutes.</p>

<h2>Amenity-Rich Environment</h2>

<p>While the development is already close to everything Merrylands has to offer, Northland Group is adding further value by delivering 22 new retail tenancies at the base of the building and within the commercial podium. Confirmed tenants include a 24/7 gym operator, a provider for a 111-place childcare centre, and major fast-food retailers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5660 project_image_fid=1613]</p>

<p>Residents will also have private access to a rooftop with several breakout spaces, barbecue areas, and a children's playground.</p>

<h2>Thoughtfully Designed Apartments</h2>

<p>With all the above boxes ticked, attention turns to the apartments themselves. Northland has gone above and beyond, offering large floorplans and premium finishes as standard. Kitchens include stone island benches, integrated Smeg appliances (gas cooktop, oven, rangehood, microwave, and dishwasher), and Villeroy &amp; Boch tapware.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5660 project_image_fid=1607]</p>

<p>Even the small details haven’t been overlooked. The integrated VRF air conditioning system allows for zoned temperature control in each room. Furthermore, each Central Quarter balcony will be built with pedestal tiles allowing for seamless indoor/outdoor living.&nbsp;</p>

<h2>A Decade in the Making</h2>

<p>Central Quarter has been over a decade in the making, with Northland Group securing the site back in 2014. Years of careful planning and design have gone into creating a product that truly suits the area.</p>

<p>With completion expected by early to mid-2026 and interest rates forecast to fall further before then, now is arguably the perfect time to secure a new home at this advanced stage of construction.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5660]</p>


Why Northland Group’s Central Quarter apartment development ticks every box

<p>High-end retailer Cult Design has signed up to take all of the commercial space, and a large section of the retail space, on the street-level of the upcoming new Fitzroy apartment development, Fitzroy Fitzroy.</p>

<p>Cult Design, which offers&nbsp;premium&nbsp;furniture, lighting and objects from iconic international and local brands, will also furnish the communal areas of the project with Cult’s brands, as well as Cultivate — Cult’s in-house sustainability program that provides buyback, refurbishment, and recycling services — a program that aligns with the project’s efforts to restore and preserve the heritage aspects of the building. Current and future residents will also have the option to purchase a turnkey furnished solution curated by Cult.</p>

<p>Cult has taken&nbsp;the entirety of the project's commercial space, and two of the three retail lots, which will form Cult's new HQ and flagship showroom.&nbsp;</p>

<p>In a further commitment to the building, Cult Design Founder Richard Munao has also bought one of the five terrace homes in the project. So too has DKO’s Director of Interiors &amp; Design Lead for the project, Michael Drescher. The sales highlight the deep alignment between the project’s architectural intent and its growing community of discerning owner-occupiers, including the collaborators themselves.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=14394 project_image_fid=183070]</p>

<p>Dean Lefkos, founder and director of Chapter Group which is developing Fitzroy Fitzroy, said the project is unlike any development he’s seen in terms of its buyer community.</p>

<p>“<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/fitzroy-fitzroy-411-421-smith-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">Fitzroy Fitzroy</a> is a true owner-occupier project; we’ve had best friends, siblings and even cousins purchasing homes, which is truly rare in residential projects these days," Lefkos said.</p>

<p>“The architecture and interiors of Fitzroy Fitzroy genuinely reflect the suburb’s character, with thoughtful design that has clearly resonated with purchasers."</p>

<p>Located on Smith Street and designed by DKO Architecture, Fitzroy Fitzroy sits behind a grand heritage brick facade, once home to MacRobertson’s Garage and Workshop, and reaches nine storeys high, complete with angular rooftops and a chamfered western side to create sunlit internal spaces and generous viewlines.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=14394 project_image_fid=183066]</p>

<p>Originally launching to market with 56 apartments and six terrace homes, Fitzroy Fitzroy will now be home to 52 apartments and five terrace homes following a number of amalgamations. One such purchaser is Michael Drescher, DKO’s design lead on the project, who purchased a three-bedroom apartment.</p>

<p>“I knew the site well, it’s a pocket of Fitzroy I’ve always admired, but it was through designing the interiors and meeting future residents<br />
that I knew this was a place we could truly call home,” Drescher said.</p>

<p>“I sensed early on that the building would foster a strong sense of community, and that feeling came to life during one of the purchaser events — everyone had the chance to meet their future neighbours, but it felt more like a gathering of old friends coming together.</p>

<p>“At DKO, we invested considerable time in crafting each floor plan with care. From the outset, we anticipated strong interest from owner-occupiers and particularly those already living in the area. The apartment we purchased was always one of my favourite floor plans in the project."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=14394 project_image_fid=1011]</p>

<p>Buyers will have access to resident-only amenities including the Smith Club, with communal bar and dining, private meeting and work-from-home spaces and an expansive, tranquil rooftop garden on level nine, designed by TCL.</p>

<p>Having met with future residents and purchasers, Drescher has developed an understanding of how the residential amenities and rooftop communal spaces will be used and is working with Cult and Chapter Group on furniture selections to suit.</p>

<p>At ground level, an internal laneway connects Smith Street to the residents’ lobby, inspired by the local arcades in Melbourne’s CBD, with Cult’s future corner showroom to be located behind the existing brick facade, with large windows opening onto both Smith Street and Leicester Street.</p>

<p>Limited apartments remain, ranging from $720,000 to over $4 million. Three yet-to-be-released sub-penthouses will launch to market in spring.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=14394]</p>


Dean Lefkos, founder and director of Chapter Group which is developing Fitzroy Fitzroy, said the project is unlike any development he’s seen in terms of its buyer community

Cult Design takes commercial and retail space at Fitzroy Fitzroy as founder buys into project

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []">The prolonged growth in the Brisbane unit market is becoming quite remarkable.</p>

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []">Unit values rose another 1.1 per cent in July, according to Cotality's latest Home Value Index. They are now over 10 per cent up over the last 12 months, and making it the best performing capital city unit market in the country, just head of Perth and Adelaide. Over the same period, Sydney unit values have seen now growth, and Melbourne units have decline 0.8 per cent.</p>

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []">What makes the continued growth in 2025 remarkable is how well the unit market is performing after 2024, when it grew by over 16 per cent, growth not seen over a calendar year since the 1980s.</p>

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []">The median unit value in Brisbane is now $727,000, the second most expensive capital city unit market in the country, only behind Sydney's $868,000 median.</p>

<p>With strong fundamentals including low supply, growing consumer confidence, rate cut tailwinds, and the anticipation building for the 2032 Summer Olympics, there's no suggestion Brisbane’s unit market won't continue to see strong growth.</p>

<h2>What happened in Brisbane’s off the plan apartment market in July?</h2>

<p>Developers are looking at any opportunity to get into the Brisbane apartment market.</p>

<p>Veteran builder John Kearney, who runs the successful development company Immerse Projects on the Gold Coast, secured a site in Toowong for his debut Brisbane apartment development.</p>

<p>It’s a location filled with nostalgia for Kearney, who studied at the nearby University of Queensland.</p>

<p>"It feels like a full circle moment," Kearney told Apartments.com.au.</p>

<p>“I spent many nights at the Regatta Hotel just down the road — as have most people in Brisbane. It’s one of the city’s most well-known hotels, and with several cafes, restaurants, and a CityCat stop nearby, it’s become an even more attractive place to live.”</p>

<p>He also noted the opportunity to take advantage of significant view corridors from the new development site: across Toowong Memorial Park, north to the city, and east along the Brisbane River.</p>

<p><em><strong>Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-immerse-projects-moves-into-brisbane-apartment-market-with-toowong-site-acquisition">First look: Immerse Projects moves into Brisbane apartment market with Toowong site acquisition</a></strong></em></p>

<p>National developer Fortis has also been in acquisition mode, filing for two new apartment developments in Hamilton and New Farm.</p>

<p>They are seeking to develop a boutique block of 12 on Hamilton's Racecourse Road (below), and 74 apartments on New Farm's dress circle Bowen Terrace.</p>

<p><img alt="Fortis doubles down on Brisbane, files boutique apartment plans on Hamilton's Racecourse Road" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Racecourse_Hero_01.jpg?VersionId=tFCZcfOm_N9P7FqmhX9ViXj_EF_5EQ_u" /></p>

<p>They've had <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/koichi-takada-architects">Koichi Takada Architects</a>&nbsp;design the Hamilton project, which is part of a wave of new development that will uplift Racecourse Road.</p>

<p><em><strong>Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/fortis-doubles-down-on-brisbane-files-boutique-apartment-plans-on-hamiltons-racecourse-road">Fortis doubles down on Brisbane, files boutique apartment plans on Hamilton's Racecourse Road</a></strong></em></p>

<p>More apartments are coming to West End, with Zen Group securing approval for a 200 climate-responsive apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/24-duncan-street-west-end-qld-4101">Duncan Street</a>.</p>

<p>The two 17-storey towers will have a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="200 &quot;climate-responsive&quot; apartments set for West End as Zen Group given green light" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Duncan%20Street%20pers.png?VersionId=nmW9L.fBmBQSq_9OKGMUvFkSA2NZek20" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bettspartners">Betts + Partners</a>, the development is grounded in a climate-responsive and contextually sensitive approach, aiming to reinforce the emerging identity of the West End Riverside South precinct.</p>

<p>The project includes a 2,600 sqm rooftop offering a comprehensive suite of resident amenities: three pools, a fitness centre, cinema room, private dining rooms, lounges, a library, and wellness facilities including hot and cold plunge pools, pilates, a sauna and a contemplative garden.</p>

<p><em><strong>Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/200-climate-responsive-apartments-set-for-west-end-as-zen-group-given-green-light">200 "climate-responsive" apartments set for West End as Zen Group given green light</a></strong></em></p>

<p>There was a rare new launch of apartment in July, in the heart of the Brisbane Olympic precinct. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/keylin-group" target="">Keylin</a>&nbsp;has started taking sales at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/oria-spring-hill-447-gregory-terrace-spring-hill-qld-4000">Oria Spring Hill</a>, located across the road from Victoria Park, the heart of the Games.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/oria-spring-hill-447-gregory-terrace-spring-hill-qld-4000">Oria</a>&nbsp;will comprise 132 residences across 15 levels in an elevated position on Gregory Terrace, directly opposite Victoria Park, the future site of the Games.</p>

<p>Leaning into its Olympic location, Keylin is introducing unique amenities that cater to changing lifestyle requirements.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=109146 project_image_fid=1015]</p>

<p>Much like the shift developers made during the pandemic to include study nooks and multi-purpose rooms in response to the work-from-home trend, Keylin has responded to the growing popularity of pickleball. Oria will feature a proposed private pickleball court as part of its facilities, one of the first courts in a new residential development across the country.</p>

<p>Keylin understood the prime value of this location long before the announcement that Victoria Park would be the heart of the 2032 Summer Olympics.</p>

<p>The address at 447 Gregory Terrace provides residents with easy access to major transport links, universities, and hospitals. Keylin has already commenced construction on Oria, which is being delivered by builder CoStruct.</p>

<p><em><strong>Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/keylin-group-launches-oria-in-victoria-park-spring-hill-olympic-precinct">Keylin Group launches Oria in Victoria Park, Spring Hill Olympic precinct</a></strong></em></p>


City Beat July 2025: Brisbane's supercharged unit market continues to boom

Wage Growth

<html><body>
<div>There's an old tradition when it comes to job numbers that goes something like this: if the numbers are crap we're doomed; and if the numbers are good then they must be wrong.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The technical term for this is <em>confirmation bias</em>.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As ever this month's <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/09/enormous-jobs-growth-in-nsw" target="_blank">booming jobs numbers</a> were treated with anything from scepticism to outright derision.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And yet the solid results have kept on coming, especially in the two most populous states. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's another bias that tends to impact people: when things have been bad, they expect bad things to continue.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And quite understandably we're seeing a lot of this in relation to weak private sector wages growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After all, soft nominal wage price growth has been around since 2015, so it's becoming quite hard to imagine that pay packets could soon begin to swell again. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But take note, because in some states this may be about to change...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Private sector wages to lift</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although it never seems to get reported anywhere, I've shown <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/07/statistical-buggery" target="_blank">several times before</a> that while the underutilisation <strong><em>rate </em></strong>is high, in volume measures terms things have been very steadily improving for the past few years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>That is to say, lots of people still want more hours of work, but the numbers of extra hours wanted has been declining over the past four years.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1YQRG8zAXOg/W51tO98q9RI/AAAAAAAAr6M/vjMLPeIRSGQWCmjRozgEk1kmQtCf41EOACLcBGAs/s1600/UU.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1YQRG8zAXOg/W51tO98q9RI/AAAAAAAAr6M/vjMLPeIRSGQWCmjRozgEk1kmQtCf41EOACLcBGAs/s640/UU.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1355"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Where is wages growth going to show up first?</div>
<div>
<br>The answer is Victoria, with construction firing up across the state <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/07/state-of-victoria-getting-under" target="_blank">on an unprecedented scale</a>.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UwNPSL_X5r4/W51uLZYH0sI/AAAAAAAAr6U/DSEyyKW3gQ0gBKzC7K9tuLxpeXKi0KoPACLcBGAs/s1600/VIC.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UwNPSL_X5r4/W51uLZYH0sI/AAAAAAAAr6U/DSEyyKW3gQ0gBKzC7K9tuLxpeXKi0KoPACLcBGAs/s640/VIC.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1402"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>And sure enough this week's figures showed that the underutilisation rate in Victoria has dived from a seasonally adjusted peak of 16.1 per cent to 12.5 per cent, with the trend pointing straight down. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>If you listen to the brilliant Business Insider <em>Devils &amp; Details</em> podcasts you'd be well across the following point thanks to the awesome deep-dive analysis of Justin Smirk at Westpac.</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Even allowing for potentially rogue seasonally adjusted figures, the trend improvement points to private sector wages growth in Victoria returning to 3<span>½</span> per cent in due course. </span></div>
<div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DcFqWNH18Q8/W52J62RyndI/AAAAAAAAr6k/tu5-dobkPmcAaQNOa42LmWHMsPB3W6ozgCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DcFqWNH18Q8/W52J62RyndI/AAAAAAAAr6k/tu5-dobkPmcAaQNOa42LmWHMsPB3W6ozgCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1331"></a></div>
</div>
<div>The recent improvement in New South Wales has been a little shallower, but the trend is quite similar, and in fact the unemployment rate in the state is now down to just 4.7 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. </div>
<p> </p>
<div>Here's the paradox of immigration: of course, it adds to the supply of labour, but it also creates demand in the economy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, as Smirk has demonstrated previously, the underutilisation in the labour force has not been behaving in a way consistent with it being solely caused by immigration. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And these numbers confirm that he's right, with the tightening labour markets being those where most immigrants are heading to.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The numbers in Victoria and New South Wales keep on improving.<br><br>This certainly won't stop the calls for lower immigration, of course, or indeed the predictions of a recession, but these numbers suggest that wages growth should pick up from here. </div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Wages growth in NSW and Victoria is coming: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>Global recruitment firm Robert Walters has released its salary expectations for Australian professionals in 2020, with roles in certain sectors set to experience wage growth.</p>
<p>The Robert Walters Salary Survey for 2020 predicts NSW as the state to see the greatest salary increases with property, infrastructure, and the energy sectors dominating the wage growth leaderboard.</p>
<p>“With Australia committed to long-term nation-building programs throughout 2020, it is not surprising that wages will continue to fluctuate and stimulate demand for specialist roles in the property, infrastructure and energy sectors,” said James Nicholson, Robert Walters Managing Director ANZ.</p>
<p>The top five wage growth roles are a mix of permanent and contract roles in NSW within the property, infrastructure and energy sectors.”</p>
<p>The renewables sector will witness strong wage growth, albeit from a small labour pool. There are currently 103 projects that are in construction (or due to start) in Australia, which are expected to deliver over $27 billion in investment and create over 16,000 jobs.</p>
<p>However, “While the emerging renewables sector is showing signs of promise, and the creation of some new jobs, uncertainty may linger until the Australian government articulates a more comprehensive energy policy,” said Mr Nicholson.</p>
<p>Technology and transformation continues to dominate the larger Australian wage narrative with roles such as Business Analyst positions in Victoria and Developer roles in South Australia to see 18-20% annual growth respectively, while broader sector conditions will see some roles in oversupply, confirming a two-speed market environment.</p>
<p>“Technology transformations are continuing unabated across every industry in Australia. As a result, 2020 will see employers vying for professionals with expertise in development, UX, data management and cyber security. Concerns about widespread unemployment due to automation and artificial intelligence have, so far, proved unfounded.” Mr Nicholson said.</p>
<p>Rounding out the top three industries for wage growth nationally is the financial services sector, which remains under enormous pressure from regulators, legislators, government, media and their customers.</p>
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Property industry predicted to lead 2020 in wage growth 

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<p>Australia's seasonally adjusted wage growth has increased 2.3 percent over the year, according to The Australian Wage Price Index (WPI) released by the ABS for the September quarter. </p>
<p>Many were predicting a wage growth in the early two percent region, with a quarterly increase of around 0.6 percent.</p>
<p>ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman said seasonally adjusted, private sector wages rose 2.1 per cent and public sector wages grew 2.5 per cent, through the year to September quarter 2018.</p>
<p>"There was a higher rate of wage growth recorded across the majority of industries in comparison to this time last year, reflecting the influence of improved labour market conditions," Hockman said.</p>
<p>"Annual wage growth at the Australia level was 2.3%, the highest growth rate since September quarter 2015."</p>
<p>Economist Stephen Koukoulas tweeted his disappointment after the ABS release, suggesting there was no material pick up.</p>
<p>"Yet another really soggy wages result, unfortunately," he wrote.</p>
<p>"With no minimum wage increase in next three quarters it looks like annual wages growth will revert to the 2 to 2.25 percent range."</p>
<p>ABC business reporter David Taylor was quick to highlight the lack of real growth, suggesting that the ABS are talking up the latest annual wage rise.</p>
<p>He tweeted that at 2.3 percent, the growth rate is now clearly ahead of inflation at 1.9 percent, so "most Aussie's are not going backwards," but added it is "still damn hard to get a pay rise in the private sector."</p>
<p>Annual<strong> </strong>growth to the September quarter ranged from 1.8 percent for the mining and retail trade industries to 2.8 per cent for the health care and social assistance industry.</p>
<p>Western Australia recorded the lowest through the year wage growth of 1.8 per cent while Tasmania recorded the highest of 2.6 per cent. </p>
<p>The Reserve Bank will have had all eyes on the announcement, with a wage growth rise a key driver in speeding up GDP growth, which they've ambitiously forecast to hit 3.5 percent by December.</p>
<p>RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle said the RBA are anticipating wage growth will continue to pick up gradually as the unemployment rate declines and the adjustment following the end of the mining boom is close to runnings its course.</p>
<p>"Around one-quarter of all employees will have received a 3.5 percent pay rise following the increase in national minimum and award wages on July 1," Debelle said.</p>
<p>"For some retail and public sector employees, we are also seeing some new enterprise bargaining agreements signed following a lengthy period where wages had been frozen."</p>
<p>Debelle suggested that the slow wage growth over recent years can be attributed somewhat to workers reluctance to leave their jobs and go after a better paying job.</p>
<p>"One of the factors contributing to this is the low level of voluntary job turnover. Workers tend to choose to leave their job for a better job – be it in conditions or pay," he said.</p>
<p>"The fact that little of this is occurring is likely to be contributing to the subdued wages growth."</p>
<p>"Some firms are attempting to retain staff by using non-wage incentives, including flexible work arrangements, shares, subsidised gym memberships, development opportunities and additional annual leave."</p>
<p data-gtm-vis-recent-on-screen-6236702_632="68492" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-6236702_632="68492" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-6236702_632="4000" data-gtm-vis-has-fired-6236702_632="1">"Over the past few years, there has been a large increase in vacancies but only a small decline in the unemployment rate to date," he said.</p>
<p>IFM Investors chief economist Alex Joiner called the wage growth release "right on expectations."</p>
<p>"Notable from the ABS that all types of wages growth were better in these data, EBAs, awards and individual arrangements - seemingly a positive for at least solid outcomes to keep coming in the next few quarters - assuming the labour market holds up," he tweeted.</p>
<p>Westpac's David Goodman said that despite the growth being muted, in annual terms at least wages are heading in the right direction.</p>
<p>Paul Bloxham, chief economist at HSBC, told the Australian Financial Review that a positive swing in wage growth would be encouraging for the RBA. </p>
<p>He said if wages improve, and continue to do so over the coming months, there’s no doubt that the RBA could consider raising rates as early as mid-2019.</p>
<p><span> </span></p>
<p> </p>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Muted wages growth leaves RBA on interest rate rise wait and see

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<p>This week Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe gave <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/sp-gov-2018-06-13" target="_blank">one of the more revealing speeches</a> one is likely to hear from a central banker.</p>
<p>It touched on many of the recurring themes in this column – sluggish wage growth, crazy levels of household debt, persistently low inflation, a long period of low interest rates, and a chunk of the country feeling they are not sharing in national prosperity.</p>
<p>But, most strikingly, Lowe hinted that the RBA’s official interest rate – the cash rate – might not rise until wage growth returns to the long-term trend.</p>
<p>Lowe began with the following familiar fact:</p>
<p>Over recent times, wages growth around the 2% mark has become the norm in Australia. Some time back, the norm was more like 3 to 4%.</p>
<p>He then turned to a range of possible explanations for this sluggish wages growth. A leading factor is that there is still slack in the labour market, with unemployment stubbornly stuck around a relatively high 5.5%. Relative to what? That, of course, is the key question.</p>
<p>Lowe suggested that 5% is the traditional estimate used to gauge full employment in Australia. But it could be lower, noting that:</p>
<p>...in a number of other countries, estimates of the unemployment rate associated with full employment are being revised lower as wage increases remain subdued at low rates of unemployment.</p>
<p>Then there’s underemployment. Lowe observed:</p>
<p>… around one-third of workers work part-time, with most of these people wanting to work part-time for personal reasons [but] around one-quarter would like to work more hours than they do; on average, they are seeking an extra two days a week … This suggests an overall labour underutilisation rate of 8¾%.</p>
<p>Turning to technology, Lowe pointed out that recent technological advances have tended to be in information technology, rather than large new machines. Moreover, a relatively small slice of successful firms in a few sectors of the economy tend to adopt this technology.</p>
<p>Those firms do well – as do their workers. But lagging firms that cannot successfully adopt these technologies get put under pressure. According to Lowe’s thinking, those firms respond by keeping a lid on wages to remain competitive.</p>
<p>All of this has implications for the real value of debt and for consumer spending, As Lowe put it:</p>
<p>Many people who borrowed expected their incomes to grow at something like the old rate rather than the current rate.</p>
<p>Well, indeed.</p>
<p>The really candid part came when Lowe concluded with what this meant for monetary policy. It is worth quoting him in full:</p>
<p>Any increase in interest rates, however, still looks to be some time away. The [RBA] board will want to have reasonable confidence that inflation is picking up to be consistent with the medium-term target and that slack in the labour market is lessening. At this stage, a sustained pick-up in inflation to around the midpoint of the target range is likely to require faster wages growth than we are currently experiencing. There are reasonable grounds to expect that this increase in wages growth will occur. But, for the reasons I have spoken about today, this increase is likely to be only gradual. Given this, there is not a strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy.</p>
<p>This is a striking statement. First, central bankers are usually intentionally vague about how they make policy. Not so Lowe in this speech. He essentially said there would be no rise in interest rates until wages growth is above 3%. Wow!</p>
<p>My first reaction, after the shock at his candidness wore off, was “that could be a while”. But if that’s how the RBA is really thinking about this, then predictions of no rate rise this year are not only solid, but you can lock in a 1.5% cash rate for 2019, too.</p>
<p>The factors that could boost wages growth enough to get back to historical levels are slow-moving – centred around changes in labour-market policy and technology.</p>
<p>This all contrasts rather starkly with the United States. On Wednesday the United States Federal Reserve <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20180613a1.pdf" target="_blank">raised official interest rates by 25 basis points</a> – the second such bump this year. The Fed also signalled two more hikes this year.</p>
<p>In the US unemployment is <a href="https://ycharts.com/indicators/unemployment_rate" target="_blank">down to 3.8% and inflation is picking up</a>. Fed chair Jay Powell needs to raise rates steadily to avoid inflation being too high, as opposed to too low.</p>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98240/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">I bet Governor Lowe wishes he had that problem to navigate.</p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-poor-wage-growth-means-interest-rates-could-be-low-for-a-long-time-98240" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Poor wage growth means interest rates could be low for a long time: Richard Holden

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<h1>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/saul-eslake-665" style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;">Saul Eslake</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;">, </span><em style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;"><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a></em>
</h1>
<p>Do higher profits necessarily lead to higher wages? The answer, as borne out by the data below, might surprise you. In fact, wages growth is more likely to arise from smart policy settings that directly boost economic and employment growth.</p>
<p>Australian wages growth is, as Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2017/sp-gov-2017-09-21">recently noted</a>, “the slowest since at least the mid-1960s”. Treasurer Scott Morrison recently <a href="https://sjm.ministers.treasury.gov.au/media-release/085-2017/" target="_blank">asserted</a> that a sustained <em>increase</em> in profitability is a prerequisite for a pick-up in wages growth.</p>
<p>But there is little data to support the idea that wages and profits are connected.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188524/width754/file-20171003-3782-1ws0esq.png" alt=""><span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></p>
<p>There does not appear to be any “leading” relationship between growth in pre-tax company profits and growth in wages, even if the mining sector (which accounts for a good deal of the fluctuations in profit growth over the past dozen years) is excluded.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188527/width754/file-20171003-3124-1ta5b97.png" alt=""><span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a></span></p>
<p>Some relationship between profit <em>margins</em> (that is, profits as a proportion of sales revenue) and wages might have existed in the past. However, that appears to have broken down in the years since the peak of the commodities boom, in 2011-12, as you can see in the following chart.</p>
<p>Since then, aggregate profit margins have risen to levels not seen since the early 2000s, but wages growth has continued to slow.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188529/width754/file-20171003-12163-1qrzjgd.png" alt=""><span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a></span></p>
<p>Rather than being a precursor to faster growth in wages, the growth in Australian company profits in recent years appears to be part of a broader global pattern: the share of aggregate income accruing to capital is rising while that accruing to labour is falling.</p>
<h2>In line with global trends</h2>
<p>Researchers from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have provided a plausible set of explanations for these developments in their <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2017/09/19/%7E/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2017/October/pdf/analytical-chapters/c2.ashx" target="_blank">latest World Economic Outlook</a>. They contend that “macroeconomic factors such as labour market slack, inflation expectations and trend productivity growth can account for the bulk of the variation in nominal wage growth … in recent years”.</p>
<p>Echoing <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2017/feb/box-b-underemployment-and-labour-market-spare-capacity" target="_blank">a point frequently made by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)</a>, the IMF researchers note: “True labour market slack may … be larger than suggested by headline unemployment rates.” This is because of the growth in the number of workers working fewer hours than they are willing and able to work.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-wage-growth-contributes-to-the-economy-75625" target="_blank">Explainer: how wage growth contributes to the economy</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>The researchers find that even in economies where unemployment rates are now below their pre-GFC averages, “involuntary part-time employment … appears to be weighing on wages growth”, alongside “slower-moving drivers … such as automation, diminished medium-term growth expectations and the growing importance of the services sector”.</p>
<p>The IMF researchers conclude that, overall, “wage growth … may continue to remain subdued until involuntary part-time employment diminishes or trend productivity growth picks up”.</p>
<p>All of this suggests that policy measures that seek, in the first instance, to (further) lift corporate profits will not enhance the prospects of a pick-up in wages growth in Australia.</p>
<h2>Preferential taxation not the answer</h2>
<p>As I’ve argued <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-small-business-tax-cuts-arent-likely-to-boost-jobs-and-growth-72658" target="_blank">previously</a>, there’s absolutely no evidence that preferentially taxing small businesses will do anything to boost innovation, productivity, investment or employment. Hence, there’s no reason to think it will do anything to lift wages growth.</p>
<p>Nor is there any <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://economics.mit.edu/files/7666" target="_blank">compelling empirical evidence</a> to suggest that across-the-board tax cuts for larger companies will have any significant impact on employment and hence on wages.</p>
<p>Rather, an acceleration in wages growth is more likely to come from policies that directly boost economic and employment growth – such as increased spending on (well-chosen) infrastructure projects – and that boost productivity growth (including well-targeted education and training initiatives).</p>
<p>A more controversial proposition may be that measures designed to reverse, in part, the shifts in the shares of national income accruing to labour and capital over the past decade or so could also help accelerate wages growth.</p>
<p><iframe style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/53kAt/5/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe></p>
<p>Partly because real wages have grown more slowly than labour productivity since the turn of the century (as you can see in the previous chart), the “profits share” of Australian national income is well above its long-run average. The “wages share” is close to a record low.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188692/width754/file-20171003-31723-6uw84z.png" alt=""><span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a></span></p>
<h2>Historical precedent</h2>
<p>In some respects, the present situation is the obverse of the “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1988/pdf/rdp8806.pdf" target="_blank">real wage overhang</a>” that emerged in the second half of the 1970s, whereby real wages surged much faster than productivity.</p>
<p>One of the main purposes of the Hawke government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-politics-explainer-the-prices-and-incomes-accord-75622" target="_blank">Prices and Incomes Accord</a> was to secure the ACTU’s acceptance that wages would grow more slowly than productivity (and fall in real terms) to eliminate this “overhang” and reduce unemployment.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-politics-explainer-the-prices-and-incomes-accord-75622" target="_blank">Australian politics explainer: the Prices and Incomes Accord</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Hence, it could be argued that what is required now is a period during which real wages grow faster than productivity to eliminate what could be termed a “real wage underhang”. That would be difficult to achieve via an accord-type process given the changes in how the labour market works since the 1980s.</p>
<p>And it would be important to ensure that real wages did not grow at a pace relative to productivity growth that led to higher unemployment.</p>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83819/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">The government could consider using its submissions to the Fair Work Commission’s annual determinations of the minimum wage, and its approach to wage negotiations with its own employees, as a way of nudging wages growth upwards.</p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/saul-eslake-665" target="_blank">Saul Eslake</a>, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888" target="_blank">University of Tasmania</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-faster-profit-growth-essential-for-a-pick-up-in-wages-growth-83819" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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Is faster profit growth essential before a pickup in wages growth? Saul Eslake

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<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Consumer confidence fell further in the past week to the lowest levels in almost a year. Why the gloom? Well, data showed wage growth remaining near 2 per cent, well below the levels of a few years ago.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Still, data in the past week showed the job market to be in good shape with job growth in the past five months the best for an equivalent period in 121⁄2 years.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Consumer confidence is also tied to the fortunes of the Aussie dollar and the currency has backed away from US80 cents.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Aussie consumers are fretting about slower wage growth, rising energy bills and higher healthcare costs. Of course at the same time the affordability of a rash of spending categories has improved such as food, clothing, travel and transport.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Consumers may say they are gloomy, but importantly they are still spending. It’s a case of watch what they do, not what they say. Real retail trade posted the best growth in the June quarter for any June quarter in the past eight years. At the same time, measures of economy-wide spending continue to show firm growth. Certainly if consumer spending was slowing, this would be reflected in business conditions and confidence – but both those metrics remain strong.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/23/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-23%20at%208.09.40%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="column"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/23/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-23%20at%208.09.40%20AM.png" alt=""></div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">One key positive in the past week – the measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item rose to +35, above the long-term average of +33.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">What do the figures show?</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Consumer sentiment
<p><span></span><span>The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating </span><span>eased 2.2 per cent from 111.7 to a near 12-month low of 109.2 in the week to August 20. Confidence is down 10.3 per cent over the year and below the average of </span>113.2 since 2014.</p>
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<p><span> </span><span>Four of the five components of the index fell in the latest week: </span></p>
<ul>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was </span><span>down </span><span>from +5 to +3; </span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>The estimate of family finances over the next year was </span><span>down </span><span>from +23 to +16; </span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>Economic conditions over the next 12 months was </span><span>down </span><span>from -5 to -6; </span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>Economic conditions over the next 5 years was </span><span>down </span><span>from +5 to -2; </span></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><span>  </span><span>The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was </span><span>up </span><span>from +30 to +35. </span></p>
<p><span>What is the importance of the economic data? </span></p>
</li>
</ul>
<p><span> </span><span>The </span><span>ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence </span><span>closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/23/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-23%20at%208.11.08%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/23/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-23%20at%208.11.08%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</span></p>
<p>Consumers say that they aren’t overly confident at present. But they are still spending. Whilever wage growth is exceeding price growth then consumers will spend.</p>
<p>Retailers need to watch measures of consumer sentiment but not unduly worry about survey results. </p>
<p><em>Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em></p>
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Consumers wary, but still spending

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/82580/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy on a collision course with itself? Quite possibly.</p>
<p>The key data and evidence this week were employment figures in Australia, retail sales in the United States, and minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia board and US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).</p>
<p>First, the data. ABS figures released Wednesday provided more evidence of sluggish wage growth. </p>
<p>Wages nationally grew 0.5% in the June quarter, translating to 1.9% year on year. Worse still, private-sector wages grew only 1.8%, compared with 2.5% for government employees. All of this puts increased pressure on family budgets at a time when energy prices are rising rapidly.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the RBA board minutes seemed like they were describing a different economy. In terms of consumer spending, the RBA pointed to the rising values of retail sales in April and May and growth in consumption in the June quarter. The minutes also noted:</p>
<p><em>"Beyond the June quarter, rising employment and stronger household income growth were expected to support consumption growth, which was forecast to be a little above its average of recent years."</em></p>
<p>The minutes were also rosy when it came to the labour market, stating that employment had increased in every state since the start of the year, including in states with mining. The RBA noted:</p>
<p><em>"This provided further evidence that the drag on economic activity from earlier declines in the terms of trade and falling mining investment were running their course. Over this period, around 165,000 full-time jobs had been created, labour force participation had risen and average hours worked had increased."</em></p>
<p>Figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed that employment itself rose in July, with 27,900 jobs created. Unemployment rate fell from 5.7% to 5.6%, and labour force participation was a healthy-ish 65.1%.</p>
<p>I guess the only wrinkle is that these workers aren’t getting paid very much.</p>
<p>Markets and commentators widely interpreted these minutes and various other remarks by governor Philip Lowe as suggesting that the next interest rate move would be an upward one.</p>
<p>But then there’s the problem of the massive household debt Australians hold. RBA figures showed that as of March this was 190% of annual disposable income. Combine that with the fact that one-third of mortgage holders don’t have a one month buffer of payments and it makes an interest rate rise look rather risky.</p>
<p>The RBA knows this, of course, noting in the minutes:</p>
<p><em>"Members regarded conditions in the housing market and household balance sheets as continuing to warrant careful monitoring."</em></p>
<p>To summarise: growth and inflation seem to point to an interest-rate rise in the medium term; unemployment rates do too. Sluggish wages growth points to a cut, but a cut might further fuel housing prices. </p>
<p>And those high prices have left Australian households so highly leveraged that a modest rate rise could cause a wave of financial distress and perhaps mortgage defaults. That would lead to fire sales, damage bank balance sheets, and wipe billions of the market capitalisation of the four largest ASX listed companies.</p>
<p>The RBA has to raise, but it has to cut. That’s what I mean by a collision course.</p>
<p>In the US, some brighter news. Retail sales shot up 0.6% last month. This was the largest gain since December 2016, and further evidence of a strengthening economy.</p>
<p>This was reflected in the minutes of the FOMC which observed that:</p>
<p>"…economic conditions would evolve in a manner that would warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate, and that the federal funds rate was likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run."</p>
<p>The bottom line from the long FOMC minutes was that things appear to be on track, with monetary policy still helping to bolster the labour market and get inflation back in the target zone.</p>
<p>The US isn’t in the clear yet, but it looks like the Federal Reserve under Janet Yellen may have pulled off a remarkable rebuilding of the US economy.</p>
<p>In Australia it’s much less clear. With huge household debt, low wage growth, and rising energy prices, the path back to “normal” economic conditions may take longer than in the US.</p>
<p><span class="fn author-name"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a> is </span>Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW and author for The Conversation.</p>
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