The Victorian Government has secured the passage of the Building Legislation and Treasury Legislation (Tax Relief) Amendment Bill 2026, introducing a suite of reforms aimed at improving consumer protection and confidence in the apartment market.

Resilience Insurance, Australia’s leading Latent Defects Insurance (LDI) provider, has welcomed the move.

The LDI elements of the Bill passed with bipartisan support and now moves to the Legislative Council where debate and passage are expected later this month. It represents a significant milestone in the national shift toward stronger, longer-term protection for apartment buyers.&nbsp;

The reform would deliver practical benefits across the housing system. Apartment owners will have stronger protection if major defects emerge, developers and builders will have a clearer quality framework to work within, and the State will reduce the risk of serious building failures becoming a long-term financial and social burden for households, communities and government.&nbsp;

LDI helps support apartment delivery while providing stronger protection for buyers and encouraging better construction outcomes.&nbsp;

Resilience LDI provides apartment owners with 10 years of insurance-backed cover for major structural defects from completion, with direct claim access to the insurer. This means owners are not required to first pursue developers or builders through costly legal action before accessing protection.&nbsp;

Resilience Insurance has been operating in Australia since 2022 and has already insured hundreds of development projects covering many thousands of apartments across Australia.&nbsp;

At approximately 1.8 per cent of build cost, it is a cost-competitive alternative to the traditional two per cent Strata Bond, bond while delivering significantly broader and longer protection.&nbsp;

“The Victorian Lower House vote shows that reforms like this succeed when they are practical, evidence-based and supported by industry," says Corey Nugent, CEO of Resilience Insurance.

"Victoria is moving quickly on a reform that will make a real difference for apartment buyers, while supporting better building outcomes and greater confidence in apartment delivery.

“This is step one. We look forward to the Bill completing its passage through the Legislative Council and to working with government and industry to implement the framework effectively.”&nbsp;

Fast Facts: What is Resilience LDI?&nbsp;

<ul>
	<li>Resilience Latent Defects Insurance (LDI): Covers major structural defects for 10 years from completion.&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Consumer-first: Direct claim access, no need for lengthy legal action.&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Cost advantage: At approximately 1.8% of build cost, LDI is typically priced below the traditional 2% Strata Bond while offering broader protection.&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Market leader: Resilience Insurance is the first approved LDI provider in NSW.</li>
</ul>

The Building Legislation and Treasury Legislation (Tax Relief) Amendment Bill 2026 has passed the Victorian Lower House, putting Victoria on track to become the first state to legislate an industry workable LDI framework as a formal alternative to the Strata Building bond. 

Joel Robinson

10-year Latent Defects Insurance for new apartment buyers set to land in Victoria

Just a few months after acquiring a prime Broadbeach site on the corner of First Avenue and Surf Parade, family-run developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/raptis">Raptis</a> has filed fresh plans for a new apartment development.

Raptis is seeking to deliver a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-19-first-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4217">29-storey tower with 73 apartments</a> on the 818 sqm site. It will be the developer's seventh project in the suburb, as they are approaching completion of The Sterling on George Avenue.

There will be a pool, barbecue and outdoor dining area, residents lounge and dining, sauna and steam room, gym, and a Yoga and Pilates studio.

<img alt="Raptis" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b554da3f-7344-49aa-b1c9-44cf459af0d7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-05%20at%2010.41.45%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=zzjWu1iO1wnuYv4EV4fyOyf5nSXjGYut" />

Raptis Joint Managing Director, Evan Raptis, says they remain&nbsp;committed to developing quality infill sites across the Gold Coast in the lead-up to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics.

"This project continues our long track record of delivery in Broadbeach, and we look forward to bringing another premium development to this thriving precinct."

The announcement follows strong delivery momentum for Raptis, with The Sterling Broadbeach nearing completion and construction well underway on the final stage of the Waterpoint community adjacent to Harbour Town. The developer's continued investment in the Gold Coast reflects confidence in the region's apartment market fundamentals, underpinned by sustained Southeast Queensland population growth.&nbsp;

The outlook for the region is further bolstered by infrastructure investment tied to the Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games, which is expected to drive continued economic and population growth across the SEQ corridor.&nbsp;

Subject to a favourable response from Gold Coast City Council, construction on the new First Avenue tower is targeted to commence before the end of 2026.&nbsp;

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/it-s-all-in-the-family-four-decades-later-raptis-continues-to-shape-the-gold-coast-skyline">It’s all in the family: Four decades later, Raptis continues to shape the Gold Coast skyline</a>

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/raptis-secures-prime-surf-parade-site-for-next-broadbeach-apartment-development">Raptis secures prime Surf Parade site for next Broadbeach apartment development</a> 
&nbsp;

Gold Coast developer brings seventh Broadbeach project to market, targeting construction commencement before year end

First look: Raptis lodges plans for new 29-storey Broadbeach tower 

Brisbane development veteran Kevin Seymour's Seymour Group is set to deepen its presence on one of Brisbane's most tightly held riverfront addresses, lodging revised plans for a luxury apartment development on Oxlade, just a few doors down from The Oxlade, which it completed in 2024.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/70-72-oxlade-drive-new-farm-qld-4005">new project at 70-72 Oxlade Drive</a>, directly north of The Oxlade, will have 27 apartments across a seven-storey building&nbsp;overlooking the Brisbane River and Merthyr Park. It's a revision from a 2021-approved design.

Designed by bureau^proberts, the project has evolved from the previously approved 26-apartment scheme, introducing an additional penthouse level while maintaining a low-density, boutique character. The development will comprise 26 three-bedroom apartments and a single four-bedroom penthouse, supported by two basement levels with 86 car spaces and 34 bicycle spaces.

The architectural response is centred around two distinct building forms separated by a landscaped open-air atrium.&nbsp;"This dual composition captures and embraces Brisbane’s subtropical environment whilst breaking down built form and scale," the submission to the Brisbane City Council noted.

<img alt="First look: Seymour Group returns to Oxlade Drive with revised riverfront apartment plans in New Farm" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c12d84d0-bc11-4067-b46f-5bd2d786a34d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/new%20farm%20landscape.png?VersionId=YEPc2k5CAdh6aAPlu4uVpgZadh4MEfRd" />

A defining feature of the design is a deep landscaped void running through the centre of the building, creating what bureau^proberts describes as a "natural ravine" that enhances airflow, daylight penetration and resident amenity. The design report notes that the separation of the two building volumes is intended to maximise natural light, cross-ventilation and outlook while strengthening connections to the surrounding riverfront setting.

Curved balcony edges, integrated planting and extensive landscaping throughout the façade reinforce the subtropical design approach. The building's façade is softened by elevated gardens and planter beds, creating a green edge that complements the established landscape character of Oxlade Drive and neighbouring Merthyr Park.

New Farm has become one of Brisbane's most sought-after suburbs for developers delivering premium downsizer-focused apartments.

GRAYA has been particularly active in the precinct, completing both Chalk and York in recent years, while construction of Moray House, being delivered for Spyre, is now nearing completion. Architect-turned-developer Joe Adsett recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/arcilla-new-farm-by-joe-adsett-28-maxwell-street-new-farm-qld-4005">Arcilla on Maxwell Street</a>, an exclusive collection of just nine apartments.

First look: Seymour Group returns to New Farm's Oxlade Drive with riverfront apartment plans

A new residential tower will be the first piece of a broader mixed-use precinct set to reshape a prominent Newcastle West site, with local developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> bringing its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/cambridge-quarter-newcastle-west-12-denison-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Cambridge Quarter</a> vision to market.

The first release, Tempo, will introduce 87 apartments across a 24-storey tower, marking Stage 1 of the residential component of a larger urban regeneration project planned for the western end of Newcastle's city centre, encompassing the former Cambridge Hotel site.

Positioned on Denison Street, Tempo has been designed as the inaugural building within Cambridge Quarter, a precinct that will ultimately combine apartments, retail activation and revitalised public spaces including the revamping of the Cambridge Hotel.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368853]

The tower will comprise a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, including layouts with multipurpose rooms, catering to a broad cross-section of owner-occupiers. Apartment sizes range from around 60 sqm to 192 sqm, with a number of residences oriented to capture views across Newcastle Harbour, the city skyline and coastline.

GWH has emphasised liveability in the design, with open-plan layouts extending to generous balconies and terraces. Residents will have a choice of two interior palettes, while specifications include engineered stone benchtops, SMEG appliances, full-height bathroom tiling and secure building access. Premium upgrade packages will also be available.

Multiple rooftop resident retreats will provide communal outdoor space overlooking the harbour and city, offering an elevated amenity layer above the activity of the precinct below.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368851]

The broader Cambridge Quarter vision extends beyond the residential tower itself. Ground-level retail activation and landscaped public areas are planned throughout the precinct, creating a walkable neighbourhood environment connected to the surrounding renewal of Newcastle West. The Cambridge Hotel is also earmarked for future redevelopment into a family-friendly hospitality venue integrated with the new precinct.

The project is strategically positioned within walking distance of Newcastle Interchange, providing access to light rail, regional rail services and direct connections to Sydney. Residents will also be close to Honeysuckle, Newcastle Harbour and the city's beaches and coastal walkways.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368852]

For GWH, Cambridge Quarter represents one of its most significant Newcastle developments to date. The locally based developer, which has operated in the Hunter region since 1995, describes the project as a new chapter in the ongoing transformation of Newcastle West.

GWH Executive Director Jonathan Craig said the project had been shaped by a focus on creating lasting community connections.

"We take pride in creating places that last. Spaces where people feel connected, comfortable and a genuine sense of belonging," Craig said.

"Cambridge Quarter is something we are truly proud of, a place shaped by local knowledge, built with care and designed to be part of Newcastle's next chapter."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135876]

GWH unveils first release at landmark Cambridge Quarter precinct in Newcastle West

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ss-projects">S&amp;S Projects</a>,&nbsp;Rainbow Bay's busiest developer,&nbsp;has officially lodged plans for the largest development in its booming local portfolio, seeking approval for a further 88 apartments on Boundary Street.

The proposal&nbsp;at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">209–213 Boundary Street, Coolangatta</a>,&nbsp;marks the next chapter in the developer's transformation of the southern Gold Coast beachside precinct. It will be its fifth in the area, having already delivered Flow, Awaken and Esprit, while construction continues on the 38-apartment Radia. The new project would rise 57 metres above a consolidated 1,518 sqm site, on the same street as Radia and Esprit.

&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, the proposed development comprises 88 two and three-bedroom apartments across a contemporary podium-and-tower form that integrates extensive landscaping from street level through to the rooftop.

The tower would be delivered above a basement and multi-level podium accommodating resident and visitor parking, with the residential component commencing from level three. The design incorporates cascading planting throughout the façade, landscaped podium edges, and deep planting zones along the Boundary Street frontage.

<img alt="First look: S&amp;S Projects lodges plans for 88-apartment wellness tower at Coolangatta's Boundary Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="677e6615-b5c0-4b6c-b4f9-efb14fcde1a6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ss%20da%20pers.png?VersionId=YOnPKQm7IFXv0M5H326djEpxk80500Hi" />

A key feature of the development is its expansive rooftop wellness and recreation precinct. Plans reveal a resort-style pool deck, gymnasium, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, rooftop terraces, barbecue areas and landscaped relaxation spaces positioned to capture views across the southern Gold Coast coastline.

The rooftop wellness focus builds on the vision S&amp;S Projects first outlined when it acquired the site for $20.25 million last year.

"We are taking every advantage to create a truly unique rooftop wellness experience with a natural feel for residents, offering stone features throughout and an underlying theme that emulates a botanical garden," S&amp;S Projects founder and director Paul Gedoun said at the time.

The proposal seeks a 57-metre building height, representing a 50 per cent uplift on the site's mapped 38-metre height limit. Planning documents argue the additional height is consistent with recently approved and emerging towers in the immediate Boundary Street and Rainbow Bay precinct.

Urbis, acting as planning consultant, said the development would provide "88 dwellings, comprising a mix of two and three-bedroom apartments, contributing to housing choice and supply within an established medium to high-rise coastal urban neighbourhood."

The scheme has undergone extensive pre-lodgement consultation with the City of Gold Coast, with the design refined following feedback relating to architectural expression, landscaping, traffic access and podium treatment.

<img alt="S&amp;S" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a2d70fd-62ac-4b83-97c6-b798fc1243dd" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-05%20at%209.16.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=yHmghUwKM3IVGpBktQU1mE.0Lpf3WimG" />

The architectural team is led by Brisbane-based Cottee Parker, one of Australia's most active residential design studios, with landscape architecture by Dunn + Moran. The consultant team also includes ADG Engineers, Windtech and Acoustic Works.

S&amp;S Projects has become one of the most influential private developers operating on the southern Gold Coast. Since entering Rainbow Bay in 2022, the company has assembled a portfolio exceeding $1 billion in end value, establishing itself as a key player in the area's evolution into a premium apartment destination. Pezet Matheson will again handle the sales for S&amp;S.

Coolangatta is entering another wave of apartment development, following the delivery of several prominent residential projects in recent years.

John Kearney's Immerse Projects will launch&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kaiya-kirra-beach-5-haig-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Kaiya on Haig Street</a>&nbsp;soon, meanwhile, Palm Beach-based Sherpa Property Group is preparing to bring its debut Coolangatta development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-viver-87-griffith-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Flourish Viveré</a>, to market later this year, subject to approvals.

First look: S&S Projects proposes 88-apartment wellness tower at Coolangatta's Boundary Street

Tim Lawless

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The vast majority of properties sold nationwide to September 2015 did so at a profit, with 91.6% of sales over the quarter selling at a profit, according to the latest CoreLogic RP Data Pain &amp; Gain report.
The report found the total value of this profit was recorded at $17.3 billion, with the average gross profit $265,605. 
According to the report some 8.4% of all homes resold recorded a gross loss when compared to their previous purchase price; the lowest proportion of loss-making resales since December 2014.
"This figure was lower than the 9.2% over the June 2015 quarter and also lower than the 8.9% recorded a year ago. Across those dwellings which resold at a loss over the quarter, the total value of loss was $376.2 million with an average loss of $63,221," it noted.
"Nationally there was $376.2 million in realised losses over the quarter at an average of $63,221 and $17.3 billion in realised profit at an average of $265,605.
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"Across the capital cities, there were $193.5 million in losses with an average of $71,996 per loss-making resale compared to $14.4 billion in profit at an average of $324,887. The combined regional areas recorded $182.7 million in losses at an average of $55,996 compared to $2.9 billion in profit at an average of $139,798. The average losses were greater in the capital cities, however they also generally experienced much greater profits, more than double those in regional areas."
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The proportion of loss making resales is lower than the financial crisis peak nationwide with the exception of Darwin to September 2015, according to the latest CoreLogic RP Data Pain &amp; Gain report.
The report found loss-making resales lower in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Hobart, higher in Perth and Darwin and flat in Adelaide and Canberra and said values growing sharply in Sydney and Melbourne over the year with moderate value growth in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra and values falling in Perth and Darwin. 
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

Proportion of loss-making resales lower than the financial crisis peak: Tim Lawless CoreLogic RP Data Pain & Gain national

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A few weeks agowe highlighted that the number of dwellings approved for construction reached an all-time high over the year to November 2014 with almost 200,000 approvals registered nationally. 
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/2015/01/record-high-number-dwelling-approvals-november-2014/" target="_blank"> Over the year house approvals were up 3.6%</a> compared with an 18% increase in the number of multi-unit dwellings approved.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Chart-1.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4147" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Chart-1.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="500" height="181"></a>
The record level of housing supply in the pipeline comes at a time when population growth (ie housing demand) is winding down and some of the heat is coming out of the housing market.
A deep dive on the Australian Bureau of Statistics approvals data pinpoints exactly where the bulk of the development pipeline from the past year is geographically concentrated. 
At a broad level we can see the majority of new dwelling approvals are located in Melbourne where 44,633 new dwellings have been approved for construction over the 12 months ending November 2014.  Melbourne dwelling approvals accounted for 23% of all approvals nationally and 31% of all approvals across the combined capital city metro areas.
Sydney was close behind, recording just over 39,000 new dwelling approvals over the year.  67% of all approvals across the Sydney market were for multi-unit dwellings (the highest proportion of apartments approved of any capital city).
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-national-approvals-across-cap-city-and-ros-regions.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4199" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-national-approvals-across-cap-city-and-ros-regions-580x399.jpg" alt="Table - national approvals across cap city and ros regions" width="580" height="399"></a>
While new housing supply should generally be viewed as  positive and a necessary factor in the Australian housing market and economy, areas where the approved supply pipeline are out of alignment with demand can offer up an element of risk. 
We recommend that prospective buyers factor supply levels into their housing market analysis and undertake additional research where they fear an area may be in oversupply or at least moving in this direction. 
The number of multi-unit dwellings, particularly in Melbourne and Brisbane are hovering around record highs.  Of course demand for this type of product is increasing but there are risks associated with too much new development of this product type, particularly given values are rising and population growth is slowing.
Eight of the top 20 SA3 regions, based on the number of dwelling approvals over the year to November 2014, are located in Melbourne; five are located in Perth, four in Sydney, two in Brisbane and one in Canberra.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-National-top-20.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4208" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-National-top-20-580x400.jpg" alt="Table National top 20" width="580" height="400"></a>
 
A state by state rundown on new housing supply begins on the next page. Please click below.
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The tables and maps below highlight exactly where the largest amount of new housing supply is in the pipeline.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Sydney2.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4198" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Sydney2-580x351.jpg" alt="Sydney2" width="580" height="351"></a>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-NSW.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4201" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-NSW-580x276.jpg" alt="Table NSW" width="580" height="276"></a>
Seven of the top ten SA3 regions showing the most dwelling approvals across Sydney have a strong bias towards multi-unit dwellings, with the Inner Sydney region topping the list at 2,631 new apartments approved over the twelve months to November 2014. 
Within the inner city region it is the Waterloo-Beaconsfield area that is attracting the most developer interest.  These suburbs account for 1,047 (or 41%) of the apartments being developed across the Inner Sydney SA3 region.  Several areas around Sydney’s inner ring are attracting very little in the way of densification over the past year. 
The Manly region has only recorded 48 new dwelling approvals over the past year and similarly, Leichardt has recorded only 65 new dwelling approvals.  Towards the outskirts of the city, the regions attracting the largest supply pipeline are Parramatta (1,558 new unit approvals over the past year and 119 house approvals) as well as the Bringelly-Green Valley region which is seeing an influx of new detached housing approvals (1,449).
 
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<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Melbourne2.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4196" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Melbourne2-580x351.jpg" alt="Melbourne2" width="580" height="351"></a>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-Vic.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4206" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-Vic-580x281.jpg" alt="Table Vic" width="580" height="281"></a>
Melbourne’s inner city tops the nation with the majority of new dwelling approvals, recording just over 5,000 new apartment approvals over the past year. 
The high approval reading comes after 3,725 apartments were approved in the same region over the previous year as well as 5,419 the year before that.  More than half of last year’s approvals across the Melbourne Inner City were located in the Melbourne CBD (2,418) followed by North Melbourne (682) and Docklands (657). 
Outside of the inner city, the majority of new dwelling approvals across the Melbourne metro area have been located in the outer fringes and are primarily detached dwellings.  The Whittlesea-Wallan region has recorded the second highest number of Greater Melbourne dwelling approvals over the twelve month period at 2,956 of which 83% were detached dwellings. 
The data shows that the densification taking place in the Melbourne housing market is very much focussed within the inner city core.
 
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<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Brisbane2.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4192" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Brisbane2-580x351.jpg" alt="Brisbane2" width="580" height="351"></a>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-Qld.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4203" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-Qld-580x286.jpg" alt="Table Qld" width="580" height="286"></a>
The Brisbane Inner North SA3 region has recorded the third highest number of new dwelling approvals of all SA3 regions nationally over the 12 months to November 2014.  2,981 new apartment approvals were recorded over the year and 117 house approvals. 
The suburbs of Bowen Hills and Newstead comprise the majority of these approvals with 1,535 new apartments approved for construction over the twelve month period. 
The Inner City region also recorded a high number of multi-unit dwelling approvals, with 1,881 new apartments approved for construction over the year. 
Outside of the state capital, the regional city of Townsville recorded the third highest number of dwelling approvals across the state over the twelve month period, with 1,228 houses and 410 apartments. 
Interestingly, the resource-intensive regions of Mackay and Gladstone-Biloela, where market conditions have softened substantially, have also made it into the top ten for the state for new dwelling approvals over the year.
 
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<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Adelaide2.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4191" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Adelaide2-580x351.jpg" alt="Adelaide2" width="580" height="351"></a><a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Perth2.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"> </a><a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-SA.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4204" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-SA-580x285.jpg" alt="Table SA" width="580" height="285"></a>
Slightly less than one third (31.3%) of all new dwelling approvals across Adelaide were for multi-unit dwellings over the twelve months ending November 2014, with the city having a clear preference for detached dwellings. 
The largest supply pipeline, based on approvals over the twelve month period, can be found in Onkaparinga where 1,103 new dwelling approvals were issued over the year.  Most of the approvals were at Seaford (418), Aldinga (164) and Christies Beach (132). 
The Charles Sturt region was the only other SA3 in South Australia to record more than 1,000 approvals over the year.
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
 
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<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Perth2.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4197" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Perth2-580x351.jpg" alt="Perth2" width="580" height="351"></a>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-WA.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4207" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-WA-580x284.jpg" alt="Table WA" width="580" height="284"></a>
At a time when the Perth housing market is slowing down, new dwelling approvals have moved to historic highs. 
The SA3 region of Wanneroo ranks as number two nationally for dwelling approvals, with 3,406 new homes approved for construction over the twelve months to November 2014.  
The Swan region ranked second highest across Western Australia and 8th nationally with 2,557 new dwelling approvals.  The urban form of Perth housing continues to be mostly focussed on detached housing, with only 23% of new dwelling approvals being for multi-unit dwellings (only Hobart shows a lower proportion at 11%). 
With home value growth slowing and both sales volumes and rents falling, buyers of new homes, particularly if they are buying for investment purposes, should be cautious.
 
<hr>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Hobart2.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4195" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Hobart2-580x365.jpg" alt="Hobart2" width="580" height="365"></a>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-Tas.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4205" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-Tas-580x277.jpg" alt="Table Tas" width="580" height="277"></a>
Despite recording the lowest number of dwelling approvals of any state or territory over the twelve months ending November 2014, dwelling approvals across Tasmania have been trending higher to reach their highest point since early 2012. 
The most significant level of approval activity over the twelve months to November last year was located in the north of the state at Launceston where 329 dwellings were approved for construction.
 
<hr>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Darwin2.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4194" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Darwin2-580x351.jpg" alt="Darwin2" width="580" height="351"></a>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-NT.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4202" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-NT-580x261.jpg" alt="Table NT" width="580" height="261"></a>
58% of Darwin dwelling approvals over the twelve months to November 2014 were for multi-unit dwellings, the highest proportion of apartment approvals outside of Sydney. 
The largest development pipeline, based on dwelling approvals over the twelve month period, was at Palmerston with 818 new dwelling approvals a majority of which were units.
 
<hr>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/canberra2.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4193" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/canberra2-580x366.jpg" alt="canberra2" width="580" height="366"></a>
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-ACT.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g4190]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4200" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Table-ACT-580x269.jpg" alt="Table ACT" width="580" height="269"></a>
The annual number of dwelling approvals has been trending lower across the Australian Capital Territory since early 2014 as housing market conditions broadly soften across the national capital. 
The Gungahlin region remains the most popular location for dwelling approvals across the Territory, with 2,160 new dwelling approvals over the twelve month period ending November last year. 
That figure is almost three times higher than the next most popular SA3 location, Cotter-Namadji, where 762 dwellings were approved for construction.
Buyers and developers of new stock should be cautious given that values, sales volumes and rental rates are currently falling in Canberra.
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Where are the housing supply pipelines? A state by state rundown

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The housing market is moving into the 2015 calendar year with some substantial momentum, with dwelling values 8.5% higher compared with a year ago across the combined capitals.  
The growth comes on a backdrop of slowing conditions though, with the annual rate of capital gain peaking early in the year at 11.5% over the twelve months ending April. 
While values are still rising at a healthy rate, at least at a high level and in trend terms, we anticipate that 2015 will see the housing market dynamic shift geographically. 
<ul>
<li>Sydney</li>
</ul>
Housing market conditions have been nation leading over the current cycle with dwelling values up by 31% over the cycle to date.  The rate of capital gain is slowing down though, after the annual rate of growth peaked in April last year at 16.7%. 
By the end of 2014 we expect the annual rate of growth will have slowed to approximately 12.5%.  We expect the trend towards a more sustainable rate of capital gain to continue over the 2015 due to natural affordability constraints that are becoming increasingly evident in the market, as well as a reduction in investor demand which will likely be attributable to the low yield environment as well as tougher investment lending requirements from the banking sector.
<ul>
<li>Melbourne</li>
</ul>
The Melbourne housing market has played second fiddle to Sydney’s rate of capital gain over the current growth cycle, with values moving a cumulative 17.6% higher by the end of November this year.  The rate of annual growth across the Melbourne housing market has been slowing since January when dwelling values had moved 11.9% higher over the 12 month period. 
By the end of 2014 we expect the annual rate of capital gain to have drifted back to approximately 8%.  This slowing trend is likely to continue through 2014 as investor demand is dampened by the low rental yield scenario as well as tighter finance controls around investment lending from the banking sector. 
New housing supply across the inner city area of Melbourne and the outer fringes has been sufficient when compared with population growth, which is also likely to soften the level of capital gains over the coming year.
<ul>
<li>Brisbane</li>
</ul>
Brisbane (along with Adelaide and Hobart) is one of only three capital cities where the annual rate of capital gain is likely to be higher this year than it was last year.  We are expecting the annual rate of capital gain to finish the year around the 7% mark, compared with a 5.1% capital gain over the 2013 calendar year. 
With the rate of capital gain holding relatively firm over the second half of 2014, fewer affordability pressures and better rental yields than Sydney or Melbourne, we are expecting growth in Brisbane dwelling values to outperform the capital city average over the coming year.
<ul>
<li>Adelaide</li>
</ul>
Despite the uncertainty in the local economy, the Adelaide housing market is likely to finish the 2014 calendar year with a higher rate of capital gain compared with the 2013 calendar year. 
We are expecting Adelaide values will have increased by approximately 3.5% in 2014 compared with a growth rate of 2.8% over 2013.  Transaction numbers have been rising over the second half of the year indicating a rise in buyer demand, affordability pressures are relatively tame and rental yields are higher than what can typically be found in Sydney and Melbourne. 
While we aren’t expecting values to surge across Adelaide in 2015, a steady market with values continuing to show a modest rise is the likely outcome.
<ul>
<li>Perth</li>
</ul>
The Perth housing market moved through the peak of its growth cycle in December 2013 when then annual rate of growth was recorded at 9.9%.  Since then the annual rate of growth has drifted substantially lower and we expect by the end of 2014 the annual rate of growth will be closer 1%.  
Population growth into Western Australia has slowed sharply which is reducing demand for housing at a time when there is a large amount of new detached housing approved for construction. 
Additionally, the previously strong Western Australian economy is progressively weakening as the pipeline of large infrastructure projects winds down.  Dwelling values are likely to continue their weak trend and may potentially end the next calendar year lower.
<ul>
<li>Hobart</li>
</ul>
The Hobart housing market has been the weakest of any capital city post GFC.  In fact, Hobart dwelling values remain 3.9% lower than what they were at the beginning of 2009. 
More recently, housing market conditions have started to improve across Hobart. Transaction numbers have recorded a sharp rise from a low base and dwellings show a remarkable level of affordability compared to other capital cities and gross rental yields are the second highest of any capital city after Darwin.
Dwelling values are likely to finish the 2014 calendar year about 6% higher, and as demand from lifestyle buyers continues to rise, we expect Hobart home values to continue their moderate trend higher during 2015.
<ul>
<li>Darwin</li>
</ul>
The Darwin housing market has been a solid long term performer, recording the highest rate of capital gain over the past decade across the capital cities.  Dwelling values have increased by 17.5% over the length of the current growth cycle, however growth in dwelling values has been trending lower over the second half of 2014. 
The 2014 calendar year is likely to see Darwin dwelling values increase by approximately 1.5%.  Prospects for further growth over 2015 are diminishing due to a wind down in the major infrastructure projects that are currently underway in Darwin. 
The Darwin housing market is still providing the highest gross rental yields of any capital city market, however it is likely investor demand will taper in line with capital growth.
<ul>
<li>Canberra</li>
</ul>
The National Capitals’ housing market saw a material slowdown over the second half of 2014 with dwelling values likely to finish the second half the calendar year approximately 1% lower. 
Uncertainty surrounding the local labour market, federal government job cuts and potentially an oversupply of housing are all factors that are likely to contribute flat to falling housing values during 2015.
<ul>
<li>Regionally</li>
</ul>
We are expecting ‘lifestyle’ markets to continue their bounce back in buyer demand and values.  At the same time, the downturn in commodity prices and mining related infrastructure spending is likely to continue to dampen housing markets across resource intensive regions.
Central to housing market performance will be the direction of interest rates.  There is growing debate that the next rates movement may be down rather than up.  A further reduction in the cash rate will bring mortgage rates even lower than their current record low settings. 
Theoretically, lower rates should provide a boost to housing market conditions, however, if this stimulus does transpire, it is likely to be balanced by pervasively low consumer confidence and softer labour markets which show unemployment is already at its highest level in a decade and forecast by Treasury to move higher over the coming months.
Additionally, the impact of the recent APRA announcement around investment lending may act to restrict the availability of finance to investors.  The banking sector will be under scrutiny to keep growth in investor loans at slower than 10% pace of growth which is likely to have some downwards pressure on investor related housing demand.
Overall we are expecting another solid year of housing market conditions and further capital gains, albeit at a more sustainable rate that what we have seen over 2014.
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The nation's housing dynamic is set to shift: CoreLogic's 2015 outlook

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"Housing market conditions remain slanted toward Sydney and Melbourne in October with values in these two cities rising by 1.3% and 1.9% respectively over the month. 
"Brisbane was the only other capital city to record a capital gain over the month, rising by 0.6%."
{qtube vid:=vQauqDbq5lA}
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Video: RP Data's Australian housing market recap

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The speed of population growth into Australia has been winding down since reaching a recent annual peak in December 2012 when the national population grew by 1.78% over the year.
With overseas migration moderating and a slowdown in the rate of natural increase, the annual rate of population growth across the country has slipped to 1.69% over the year ending March 2014. The more timely overseas arrivals and departures data indicates that net overseas migration to Australia is continuing to slow down, so we should expect the rate of population growth to continue tapering over the near term.
Across the states there is a third component of population growth; interstate migration flows. The trends of migration flows between the states has been changing over the past few years with the mining states demonstrating a sharp slowdown in both overseas migration flows as well as less net migration across the state borders. Conversely, the non-mining states are seeing a pick-up in interstate migration flows as workers ‘bounce’ back from resources sector jobs that are no longer there.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/1-Rolling-annual-change-in-Australias-population.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3882" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/1-Rolling-annual-change-in-Australias-population-580x120.jpg" alt="1 Rolling annual change in Australias population" width="580" height="120"></a>
The following dashboards highlight the interstate migration flows for each state; what are the overall interstate migration trends, where are the migrants coming from and where are they going to?
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2-Net-qtrly-interstate-migration-nsw-vic-qld-sa-wa.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3883" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2-Net-qtrly-interstate-migration-nsw-vic-qld-sa-wa-580x120.jpg" alt="2 Net qtrly interstate migration nsw vic qld sa wa" width="580" height="120"></a>
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/3-Net-qtrly-interstate-migration-tas-nt-act.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3884" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/3-Net-qtrly-interstate-migration-tas-nt-act-580x120.jpg" alt="3 Net qtrly interstate migration tas nt act" width="580" height="120"></a>
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/4-Annual-net-interstate-migration-flows.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3885" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/4-Annual-net-interstate-migration-flows-580x166.jpg" alt="4 Annual net interstate migration flows" width="580" height="166"></a>
Across NSW interstate migration remains in negative territory (in fact there hasn’t been a single period over the ABS historical series where net interstate migration has moved into positive territory in NSW). With a net interstate migration figure of -1,036 over the 12 months ending March 2014, this is the smallest net loss of interstate migrants for NSW on record.
The improved interstate migration figures are largely being driven by an improvement in net migration between Queensland where the net rate of interstate migration was at a record low of -4,786 over the year to March 2014. To provide some context, in 2003 the net interstate migration deficit between NSW and Queensland was just under 26,000.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/5-NSW-IM-stats.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3886" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/5-NSW-IM-stats-453x580.jpg" alt="5 NSW IM stats" width="453" height="580"></a>
Victoria is now the national leader for interstate migration, taking the title away from Queensland since the September quarter last year based on annual net migration figures. Net interstate migration into Victoria is currently at a record high with a net 2,468 more residents moving to the state from other regions of Australia.
Net migrants from NSW were the most substantial interstate contributors to Victorian population growth; however the trend of interstate arrivals from the mining states to Victoria is at record levels and trending higher.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/6-VIC-IM-stats.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3887" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/6-VIC-IM-stats-453x580.jpg" alt="6 VIC IM stats" width="453" height="580"></a>
Queensland is no longer attracting the largest number of net interstate migrants, falling to second position after Victoria since the September quarter last year. Over the year to March 2014 the state of Queensland attracted an additional 5,772 net interstate migrants which is only slightly higher than the previous all-time low of 5,384 net interstate migrants recorded over the year ending December 2010.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/7-QLD-IM-stats.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3888" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/7-QLD-IM-stats-450x580.jpg" alt="7 QLD IM stats" width="450" height="580"></a>
Net interstate migration into South Australia hasn’t changed a great deal over recent years with the quarterly rate of net migrants typically bouncing between -1,500 and -500 over the past decade. The largest portion of state residents are lost to Victoria, where over the year ending March 2014 there was a net interstate loss of 1,827 residents to Victoria.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/8-SA-IM-stats.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3889" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/8-SA-IM-stats-448x580.jpg" alt="8 SA IM stats" width="448" height="580"></a>
 
Western Australia still lays claim to the title of ‘fastest growing state’ with an annual population growth rate of 2.5%, there has been a consistent moderation in the rate of growth since a recent annual peak of 3.72% over the year ending September 2012. WA is still attracting a positive net interstate migration rate, however there were only 256 net interstate migrants to WA over the March quarter, down from a recent high of 3,395 over the March quarter of 2012.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/9-WA-IM-stats.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3890" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/9-WA-IM-stats-452x580.jpg" alt="9 WA IM stats" width="452" height="580"></a>
Net interstate migration into Tasmania has remained in negative territory since late 2010, however the trend is showing some constancy and is now approaching a neutral rate of interstate migration. The last time net interstate migration was substantially positive into Tasmania was between 2003 and 2004 when housing markets were booming.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/10-Tas-IM-stats.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3891" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/10-Tas-IM-stats-453x580.jpg" alt="10 Tas IM stats" width="453" height="580"></a>
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Interstate migration to Victoria at record highs

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Across Australia, home sales reached their high point in November last year when 45,640 house and unit sales were recorded over the month and the rolling six monthly trend was swiftly moving higher.
However, transaction numbers through to the end of July this year show that the number of home sales has levelled compared with the seasonal highs of late last year. On an annual basis, transaction numbers are still rising but not at the same growth rate as recorded one year ago.
A year on year comparison (comparing the 12 months to July 2014 to the 12 month period ending July 2013) shows that almost every state and territory recorded an increase in sales with the largest increases recorded across Tasmania where the number of sales is 26.4% higher, and in Queensland where transaction numbers are 15.7% higher.
<img src="/images/2014/10/23/lawless-oct-23-one.png" alt="">
Source: RP Data.
Western Australia and the ACT where the only two regions where transactions were down at 1.5% and 1.1% respectively.
Despite a high rate of capital appreciation, in New South Wales and Victoria the six month trend peaked in December and November last year and has slowly wound down during 2014. Sales in the Northern Territory have also slowed.
In contrast, property sales are gathering momentum in Tasmania, Queensland and South Australia. While coming from a low base, all three states have underperformed the other capital cities for value growth and transaction numbers are moving higher. Tasmania recorded the most significant increase where the rolling six month trend in sales hasn’t been as high since July 2009.
Other metrics such as recently released housing finance data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is pointing towards a peak in housing market activity; these results showed a moderation in the pace of growth for owner occupier mortgage commitments with the annual change in owner occupier housing finance commitments peaking in November last year and mortgage demand, excluding investors, virtually flat over the past twelve months.
RP Data also noted a rise in average selling time and rate of vendor discounting in the months leading up to spring; the average number of days to sell a home reached a recent low of 36 days across the combined capital cities over the month of March this year. Since that time the average days on market figure has trended higher to reach 47 days. Vendor discounting rates haven’t softened as much, up from 5.5% in February this year to 5.8% in August.
When the pace of home sales slows, it can largely be the result of seasonal factors such as in the winter months. Transactions also fall sharply towards the end of December and most of January, as well as at times of national holidays such as Easter.
For these reasons, the spring season will provide a timely litmus test for the housing market. However, the question is whether transaction numbers will rise to eclipse last year’s recent high, or have we moved the peak in buyer demand?
We are already seeing listing numbers ramping up at a faster rate than last year, the big question is whether buyer numbers will match the pace of listings to absorb this additional supply.
<img src="/images/2014/10/23/lawless-oct-23-two.png" alt="">
<img src="/images/2014/10/23/lawless-oct-23-three.png" alt="">
Source: RP Data.
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Spring season will provide a timely litmus test for the housing market

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Over the first five months of the year, across the combined capital cities of Australia, RP Data has recorded 35,367 auctions of which 24,320 (69%) sold either under the hammer or shortly before/after the auction date. 
Over the same time frame we have recorded a total of 128,437 house and unit sales. Based on these numbers, auction sales account for about 19% of all sales across the capital cities of Australia (excluding Darwin).  Excluding the month of January, where very few auctions are held, the proportion of auctions to total sales increases to 22% between February and May.
The remaining 81% of home sales were sold by private treaty. The fact that private treaty sales account for the vast majority of all home sales often gets overlooked when people are commenting on recent market conditions and trends.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Auction-and-private-treaty-sales-as-a-pc-of-all-sales.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g3629]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3630" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Auction-and-private-treaty-sales-as-a-pc-of-all-sales-580x252.jpg" alt="Auction and private treaty sales as a pc of all sales" width="580" height="252"></a>
Source: RP Data.
Of course the proportion of auctions varies substantially from city to city. Melbourne and Sydney have historically had a selling culture that is more heavily aligned with auctions as a method of sale.  Between February and May of this year, auction sales accounted for 35% of all Melbourne sales and 31% of all Sydney sales. At the other end of the spectrum is Perth where auctions are comparatively rare, comprising just 2% of all sales over the same time frame.
Another trend we have seen in the market since the growth phase kicked off in June 2012 is a substantial rise in auctions as a proportion of the total market. Clearly auctions as a method of sale are more popular when housing market conditions are ‘hot’; a fact which comes as no surprise. Auctions work best when there is high buyer demand providing a competitive bidding environment.
Of course, home value growth is strongest at the moment in Sydney and Melbourne which are the two most auction-centric markets.  What is interesting though is that auctions as a proportion of all sales are significantly higher over the current growth cycle (ie June 2012 to current) compared with the previous growth cycle (ie Jan 2009 to Oct 2010).
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Auctions-as-a-pc-of-all-sales-history.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g3629]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3631" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Auctions-as-a-pc-of-all-sales-history-580x254.jpg" alt="Auctions as a pc of all sales history" width="580" height="254"></a>
Source: RP Data.
Considering that private treaty sales account for a larger proportion of housing sales than auctions, what high frequency metrics are available to monitor this side of the market?  RP Data publishes a variety of vendor metrics each week, with the most commonly referred to metrics being the average selling time and average level of vendor discounting which are both measures of private treaty conditions.  Both of these measures exclude auction results.
The average selling time is a measure based on the number of days from when a home is first advertised to the contract date of sale.  The vendor discount provides a metric on how much vendors are reducing their initial asking price in order to sell their home.  It’s based on the percentage difference between the initial asking price and the contract price on the home.  Both indicators are updated weekly by RP Data based on data received over the past 28 days.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Tom-and-Vee.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g3629]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3635" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Tom-and-Vee-580x172.jpg" alt="Tom and Vee" width="580" height="172"></a>
Source: RP Data.
There are additional weekly metrics where you can follow the housing market trends such as updates to the RP Data Home Value indices, median selling prices, number of listings in the market, and metadata indices that indicate mortgage demand (RP Data Mortgage Index) and how many homes are being prepared for sale (RP Data Listings Index).
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Values.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g3629]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3636" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Values-580x143.jpg" alt="Values" width="580" height="143"></a>
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Listings.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g3629]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3632" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Listings-580x146.jpg" alt="Listings" width="580" height="146"></a>
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/RMI.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g3629]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3634" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/RMI-580x153.jpg" alt="RMI" width="580" height="153"></a>
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/RLI.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g3629]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3633" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/RLI-580x150.jpg" alt="RLI" width="580" height="150"></a>
 
Source: RP Data.
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How important are auction clearance rates in the housing market?

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It was surprising to see an article published by Fairfax recently that criticized RP Data's publication of monthly housing market statistics. 
The article (<a href="https://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/a-milliondollar-median-for-melbourne-20140801-zzjr9" target="_blank">that can be viewed here</a>) remarks that the RP Data indices are ridiculous and implies that the monthly results are misleading.  The theme of the article focuses on the monthly result for Melbourne where we reported a 3.7% rise in Melbourne dwelling values over the month of July.
For starters, the article did not disclose the fact that Fairfax publishes a competing index which is not a monthly measurement and lacks the timeliness of the RP Data series.  Fairfax also owns a data business that is competitive with RP Data.  The lack of disclosure around this conflict should come as a shock to readers who expect a greater level of transparency in reporting.
It’s also worthwhile pointing out that our monthly hedonic index was developed (in conjunction with Rismark International) after the RBA released a discussion paper calling for more accurate and higher frequency reporting on housing market conditions. Since that time the RP Data monthly hedonic regression indices have become the index of choice for the RBA when it comes to reporting on housing market conditions in Australia.
In an attempt to discredit our reporting and highlight what they perceive to be extreme volatility in the index reading, Fairfax take the monthly movement in our index value for Melbourne and annualise it to suggest the Melbourne housing market is heading for a 44% plus rate of growth over the coming year.
Do commentators suggest the share market is set to boom when the S&amp;P/ASX200 rises by 1.8% in a day (an annualised gain of more than 400% using Fairfax’s logic)? The graph below demonstrates the difference in volatility between our daily housing market index and the daily S&amp;P/ASX 200 index.  The volatility in our capital city indices is around 4% per annum which is approximately one fifth of the volatility recorded across equity markets. The difference in volatility levels is clear from the graph below.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/ASX200-v-RP-Data-Daily.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g3575]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3576" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/ASX200-v-RP-Data-Daily-580x223.jpg" alt="ASX200 v RP Data Daily" width="580" height="223"></a>
Housing markets are much more stable than equity markets, however that isn’t to say that housing markets don’t show natural volatility. Housing market volatility simply hasn’t been measured in the past due to the lack of granularity and sophistication in the methods behind the measurements.
If we look at monthly data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, we can also see some significant month to month fluctuations that can take commentators by surprise.
Over the first six months of this year, dwelling approvals have had the following month-by month changes: +9.0% in January, -6.6% in February, -4.5% in March, -6.1% in April, +10.3% in May and -5.0% in June.  Of a similar note, the number of owner occupier housing finance commitments has fluctuated significantly over the first five months of this year.  The fluctuations on a month to month basis were as follows: 0.0% in January, +1.6% in February, -1.3% in March, -0.5% in April and -1.7% in May.  The point here is that volatility is a part of measuring any market on a regular basis and must be considered when looking at the data.
Short-term movements in the property market cannot be viewed in isolation. A more reliable and informative way to interpret the statistics is to take the monthly change in context with the broader trend of the data. 
Over the past three months Melbourne values have shown a much lower 1.8% rise; in fact the rolling quarterly rate of growth has been tapering across Melbourne since March and the rolling half yearly rate of growth peaked in January.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Melb-index.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g3575]"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3577" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Melb-index-580x223.jpg" alt="Melb index" width="580" height="223"></a>
Subscribers to our index data, such as the Reserve Bank and Federal Treasury, rely on our monthly indices regularly, but they take a much more informed view of the results; interpreting the monthly statistics in context with the trend as well as other market evidence such as vendor metrics, supply introductions, housing finance demand and transaction volumes.
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We agree that property market information needs to be timely and meaningful and it’s not just those people looking to buy or sell a home that should take interest. 
National regulators and policy makers have a high level of interest in housing market conditions; housing is an important component of financial stability.  The banking and finance sector track housing market conditions closely, with more than 65% of bank’s loan assets are secured by residential property their requirement to assess housing market conditions is one of the their highest priorities.  Industry professionals, who need to understand the ups and downs of housing market conditions on a timely and frequent basis in order to run a successful business, also have a requirement for accurate and timely housing market analytics.
Statistics are like a foreign language for most people.  While numbers can look straight forward, understanding what the numbers mean and how best to interpret them can be challenging. Unfortunately, when it comes to measuring things like asset values and market movements, whether it is real estate or equities or other asset classes, complex mathematics is often required.
Around 15 months ago RP Data, together with Rismark International, launched a new and improved hedonic methodology which provided a daily measurement of how dwelling values were performing.  Our daily index tracks the overall change in home values across the complete portfolio of properties across the capital cities; essentially imputing the value of every house and apartment each day and measuring the change across the overall portfolio values between each period.
Prior to being released to the market, RP Data’s indices were audited by both Alex Frino at Capital Markets CRC and KPMG from an infrastructure perspective.  We consulted with the RBA.  White papers on the index methodology are<a href="https://www.rpdata.com/research/rp_data-rismark_home_value_index_methodology" target="_blank"> available to be downloaded from the RP Data web site</a>.  No other index provider goes to such lengths to provide a transparent level of documentation around their methodologies and processes.
RP Data also spends about $15 million each year on data capture, cleansing and improvement.  On a weekly basis we typically capture between 85% and 90% of all auction results, which is generally much higher than other residential property data businesses.  We receive about 60% of our transaction data directly from the industry which provides a much more timely mechanism for collecting property data than waiting on government provided records, however we also collect virtually 100% of all property transactions nationally from the respective state government departments.
So in summary, we take data collection and the production and release of our indices very seriously as we fully understand and appreciate the important decisions being made every day by regulators, policy makers, financial institutions, other industry professionals and consumers, in reliance on our data and analytics, including our indices.
The nature of statistics is such that from time to time you will get outlier results such as last month’s Melbourne figure and yes, businesses with competing interests to RP Data will use results such as this to attack us from time to time.  The important thing is to understand outlier results occur every so often in any statistical model.  Like industry professionals, policy makers and regulators, industry commentators need to understand this, not dismiss or discount these figures and pay attention to the longer-term trends.
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Why RP Data publishes monthly price data

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NSW attracted the largest number of new residents at 110,923 over the period followed by Victoria with 107,916 new residents, Queensland with 79,706, and Western Australia with 71,301.
An important indicator for the housing market, population growth statistics represent a proxy for housing demand. More residents imply more people who require accommodation.
At its peak, Australia’s population reached a record high in 2008 with an annual growth rate of 2.2%. Since then, population growth has fallen away sharply and dropped to its lowest point of 1.4% for the year end to March 2011. In 2012, population rose to reach a new high point of 1.8%.
ABS data indicates that the rate of population growth has been slipping since mid-last year, slowing to an annual growth rate of 1.7%. Despite a slowdown, population growth remains well above average.
<img src="/images/2014/06/26/lawless-june-26-one.gif" alt="">
Source: RP Data, ABS
The level of natural increase, that is births minus deaths, was 8.6% higher than the ten year average and 19.1% higher than their 30-years average over the 2013 calendar year. In addition, net overseas migration was tracking substantially higher than average at 16.7% above the 10 year average and 78.6% above the 30-years average.
Across the states, there were some diverse population growth trends where in raw numbers; NSW continues to attract the largest number of new residents, at 110,923 over the 2013 calendar year. Victoria showed the second largest number of new residents (107,916) followed by Queensland (79,706) then Western Australia (71,301).
According to the ABS, net overseas migration is the largest contributor to population growth. Across each of the states except for Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory, natural increase outweighs net overseas migration numbers.
New South Wales holds the largest number of overseas migrants at 71,446 net migrants over the calendar year, followed by Victoria which recorded 62,337 overseas migrants.
Both NSW and Victoria are the two states showing a healthy upwards trend in overseas migration. Net overseas migrants into WA were the third highest of any state at 45,401, however, the ABS data shows a substantial decline over the year with overseas migrant numbers down 19.8% compared with the 2012 calendar year. A similar trend is evident in the other mining state, Queensland, where overseas migration is down 19.1% over the year.
Victoria attracted the largest number of net interstate migrants for the second consecutive quarter; historically it has been Queensland and more recently Western Australia. A slowdown in the resources sector is the likely cause of stymied interstate migration into both of these states.
With population growth winding down we can expect some further easing of housing demand, both from a sales and a rental perspective. The slowdown seems to be most pronounced in the mining states of WA and Qld where population growth conditions have previously been the strongest.
<img src="/images/2014/06/26/lawless-june-26-two.gif" alt="">
 
<img src="/images/2014/06/26/lawless-june-26-three.gif" alt="">
<img src="/images/2014/06/26/lawless-june-26-four.gif" alt="">
Source: RP Data, ABS
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Stalling population growth will lead to further easing of housing demand

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recently published labour force statistics for May 2014.
The data reported that the national unemployment rate was steady at 5.8%, the third month in a row it had been recorded at this level. The rate of unemployment is up from 5.5% a year ago but still well below the 6.25% many had predicted it would have reached by now.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Chart-12.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g3399]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3400" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Chart-12.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="500" height="182"></a>
Source: RP Data, ABS
The full-time unemployment rate at a national level is slightly higher than the overall unemployment rate, recorded at 6.0%.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Chart-22.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g3399]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3401" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Chart-22.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="500" height="185"></a>
Source: RP Data, ABS
Although we have seen a fairly stable unemployment rate of late, the employment participation rate is continuing to trend lower.
A key challenge for the government is to encourage the long-term unemployed persons back into the workforce. Although the participation rate data suggests that this may not be working, keep in mind also that with an ageing population more and more baby boomers are reaching retirement age and exiting the workforce.
The current workforce participation rate is recorded at 64.6% which is at around its lowest level since March 2006.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Chart-32.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g3399]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3402" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Chart-32.jpg" alt="Chart 3" width="500" height="181"></a>
Source: RP Data, ABS
Turning to actual employment, in May 2014 there was 11,564,555 persons employed nationally, 8,068,338 employed full-time and 3,496,216 employed part-time.
As at May 2014, 30.2% of all employed persons were employed part-time. As you would expect, females are much more likely to be employed on a part-time basis compared to males. As at May 2014, 16.9% of total males employed were employed part-time compared to 45.9% of females employed.
Although the proportion of males employed part-time is much lower than females it has been trending higher and is close to an historic high.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3403" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Chart-42.jpg" alt="Chart 4" width="500" height="182">
Source: RP Data, ABS
Over the 12 months to May 2014, the number of employed persons has increased by 98,700 persons with a 49,700 person increase in full-time employment and a 49,000 person increase in part-time employment.
At the same time a year ago, total employment had increased by 102,900 persons with full-time employment increasing by 22,100 persons and part-time employment rising by 80,700 persons.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Chart-51.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g3399]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3404" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Chart-51.jpg" alt="Chart 5" width="500" height="186"></a>
Source: RP Data, ABS
The national data highlights that the unemployment rate has seemed to have stabilised over recent months and jobs continue to be created however, the data at a state level is somewhat more varied. Based on the less volatile trend data, Tasmania has the nation’s highest unemployment rate at 7.5% and the Northern Territory the lowest at 3.3%.
As you can see there is a big discrepancy in unemployment on a state by state basis.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Chart-61.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g3399]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3405" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Chart-61.jpg" alt="Chart 6" width="500" height="179"></a>
Source: RP Data, ABS
Looking at the current tend unemployment rate compared to trend unemployment a year ago we can see some different trends across the states.
New South Wales was the only state where there was no change to unemployment over the year, steady at 5.5%.
The unemployment rate rose in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia with the largest increases in Victoria and South Australia.
In Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory the unemployment rate is lower over the year with a substantial fall in the Northern Territory.
<a href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Chart-71.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g3399]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3406" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Chart-71.jpg" alt="Chart 7" width="500" height="181"></a>
Source: RP Data, ABS
The employment participation rate also varies significantly across the states. As you can see from the above chart, employment participation is trending lower across most states and below its recent peak in each state.
The state and territories with the highest participation rate are: Northern Territory (76.2%), Australian Capital Territory (70.9%), Western Australia (68.2%) and Queensland (66.4%).
Across the remaining states, participation is lower, recorded at 63.0% in New South Wales, 64.2% in Victoria, 62.0% in South Australia and 60.9% in Tasmania.
Overall the May release showed a level of stability returning to the unemployment rate.
Keep in mind the federal budget forecasts indicate the unemployment rate to peak at 6.5% however, it is important to note that previous government forecasts expected the unemployment rate to be at 6.2% currently.
With an ageing population we are likely to see the employment participation rate trend lower, which will increase pressure on business to improve productivity.
On a state-by-state basis the employment picture varies and it will important to keep an eye labour market conditions particularly in Victoria and South Australia where the unemployment rate has risen sharply over the past year.
Keep in mind upcoming high-profile manufacturing closures within the car industry are yet to really bite and will impact both Victorian and South Australian jobs.
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Tim Lawless

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