One of North Sydney's best-known commercial buildings could become hundreds of new homes, with insurance giant Zurich Australia lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) to transform 5 Blue Street into a mixed-use residential development above North Sydney Station.

Rather than demolishing the existing building and starting again, Zurich is proposing an adaptive reuse project that would convert the landmark office building into a 15-level residential development delivering 62 apartments, 86 affordable co-living dwellings, activated retail and significant upgrades to the Blue Street Plaza.

The proposal reflects a growing trend of commercial property owners repositioning ageing office assets into residential housing as Sydney grapples with housing supply shortages and changing workplace demand.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0bba7d12-06dc-4375-aad7-238c94b21ac5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.42.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=NJl5oLAEBDGuPmY3RnyliKODjMc8lvRh" />

Located directly above North Sydney Metro and train station, the 3,051 sqm site occupies one of the most strategically positioned parcels of land on Sydney's Lower North Shore.

Designed by fjcstudio, the proposal seeks to retain and adapt much of the existing structure while creating a contemporary residential address that better connects with the public domain surrounding North Sydney Station.

The application proposes two basement levels, ground floor retail, affordable co-living accommodation across the podium levels, and apartments above, while preserving and enhancing the publicly accessible Blue Street Plaza.

Rather than pursuing maximum apartment numbers, Zurich has opted for a housing mix heavily weighted towards larger owner-occupier residences.

The proposal includes 62 build-to-sell apartments comprising 12 one-bedroom, 19 two-bedroom, 29 three-bedroom apartments and two premium penthouses. It also incorporates 86 affordable co-living dwellings, which would be managed in perpetuity by a Community Housing Provider.

That balance between traditional apartments and affordable housing reflects the NSW Government's push to increase housing diversity around major transport infrastructure.

The proposal has been lodged concurrently with a rezoning application, with Zurich arguing the site is ideally positioned to support additional housing given its immediate proximity to public transport, employment and services.

"The proposal aims to respond to the housing challenges facing Sydney through the delivery of diverse housing types in a highly accessible location," the design report by fjcstudio states. It also seeks to improve pedestrian amenity through upgrades to Blue Street Plaza while creating a high-performing residential building that responds to the surrounding context.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36082e15-c636-4481-bb68-5a5f6443fe39" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.41.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=5P6VD.fvmqjQfIG3TWWMRXxQWiQBjeFB" />

Rather than replacing the commercial building, fjcstudio has developed a design that works with the existing structural framework above the rail corridor, an approach that significantly reduces demolition while allowing the site to be repositioned as a mixed-use residential precinct.

The existing structural constraints have informed much of the building's design, including its relationship with Blue Street and surrounding public spaces.

The building has been designed as a slender tower rising above a clearly defined podium, with vertically expressed façades intended to reduce the perceived bulk while reinforcing North Sydney's emerging skyline.

According to fjcstudio, the architectural language responds directly to the surrounding commercial towers while maintaining a finer grain expression more closely aligned with the neighbouring Lavender Bay streetscape.

The tower incorporates articulated façade elements, landscaped podium edges and recessed upper levels to soften its appearance and improve pedestrian amenity below.

A significant component of the proposal is the revitalisation of Blue Street Plaza.

The existing public space has long served as one of the primary pedestrian connections between North Sydney Station, Greenwood Plaza and Blue Street, yet its role is expected to become even more important following the opening of Sydney Metro.

Zurich's proposal seeks to strengthen that role by improving landscaping, introducing new retail frontages, enhancing pedestrian permeability and creating more active edges throughout the day and evening.

Ground floor retail would wrap the plaza, while separate residential and co-living entries have been designed to improve wayfinding without reducing street activation.

Landscape design has been integrated throughout the podium and public realm, softening what is currently one of the most heavily urbanised parts of North Sydney.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

fjcstudio has carefully oriented apartments towards Sydney Harbour and the CBD while using privacy blades and articulated façades to minimise overlooking between neighbouring buildings.

Large framed openings along the western elevation maximise harbour outlooks, while the eastern apartments have been angled towards the south-east to improve privacy from neighbouring development.

The project forms part of the continuing transformation of North Sydney from a predominantly commercial CBD into a genuine mixed-use city centre.

Since the completion of Victoria Cross Metro Station, developers have increasingly shifted their attention towards residential projects capable of leveraging the area's unparalleled transport connectivity.

&nbsp;

FiveX recently lodged plans for a 61-storey, 490-apartment tower that would become one of the tallest residential buildings in North Sydney if approved.

Aqualand continues to expand its Lower North Shore presence following the completion of AURA on Walker Street and its recent St Leonards and Roseville proposals.

Developers are also progressing projects throughout Walker Street, Miller Street and the Victoria Cross precinct as demand for well-located owner-occupier apartments continues to strengthen.

Joel Robinson

First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station

Busy developer Aqualand Prestige has formally taken the next step in its expansion across Sydney's Lower North Shore, lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for its long-held Archer Street site in Chatswood.

The application covers <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/51-55-archer-street-chatswood-nsw-2067">51-55 Archer Street</a>, a 1,767 sqm amalgamated site on the eastern edge of the Chatswood CBD, where the developer is seeking approval for a 45-level mixed-use tower delivering 114 apartments, including a significant affordable housing component, alongside retail, commercial space and six basement levels of parking.

The SSDA marks the latest milestone for a project Aqualand has been quietly progressing over the past two years. The developer first secured the site for its Aqualand Prestige platform before undertaking an alternative design excellence process with PTW Architects, ultimately avoiding a formal design competition through the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The proposal has evolved considerably from Aqualand's original concept. The revised scheme has been designed around larger owner-occupier product, with an unusually high proportion of three and four-bedroom apartments, targeting the more affluent buyer profile, and downsizer, emerging across the North Shore.

<img alt="Archer St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0171204c-5811-41b5-9b09-2335d1b7c3d0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%208.52.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6YTuxfq.puZo7k2wbfgemcO5K3QfXYGQ" />

The 114-apartment mix comprises six studios, 27 one-bedroom apartments, 18 two-bedroom apartments, 50 three-bedroom residences and 13 four-bedroom homes. A quarter of the building will be dedicated to affordable housing, well above the mandated 15 per cent&nbsp;

PTW has structured the building vertically, with affordable housing across levels one to six, premium apartments through levels seven to 31, duplex skyhomes on klevels 32 to 43, a penthouse on level 44, and a rooftop plant level above. Six basement levels will provide resident parking and servicing.

The tower is proposed to reach approximately 154 metres, placing it among a growing collection of residential high-rises transforming Chatswood's skyline.

Rather than competing purely on height, PTW says the design has been driven by creating a slimmer tower capable of delivering significantly larger apartments.

"The primary objective of this project was to create a distinctive building that stands out from the recently approved or built structures in the Chatswood area," the design report states, noting the structural efficiency allows greater investment into apartment quality and resident amenity.

Residents would have access to more than 450 sqm of communal open space including landscaped gardens, swimming pool, rooftop entertaining areas, fitness spaces, community gardens, children's play areas and barbecue facilities.

A major focus of the design has been the public domain.

The ground plane has been opened up through landscaped terraces inspired by Willoughby's sandstone ridges, with native planting, public seating, artwork, retail activation and a series of gathering spaces intended to soften what has traditionally been a hard commercial streetscape.

The landscape strategy references Blue Gum forests once common throughout the area, while incorporating Indigenous storytelling, public art and lighting installations to strengthen the connection to Country.

Chatswood has been one of Sydney's busiest apartment markets over the past 12 months, with a steady pipeline of both new project launches and fresh development applications.

Hyecorp recently launched Celine, a 122-apartment development just along Archer Street, while Changfa and Huirong Group are progressing The Anderson, an 84-apartment project on Anderson Street.

Develotek recently secured approval for a 101-apartment tower on Pacific Highway, while Tian An LFD received the green light for Hammond Greens, its apartment development on the edge of the Chatswood Bowling Club.

Commercial property developer FiveX is also making its move into the residential market. Last month it lodged plans for a 61-storey tower with 490 apartments, which, if approved, would become one of the tallest residential buildings in Chatswood.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-fivex-targets-chatswood-skyline-with-61-storey-tower-after-north-sydney-plans">First look: FiveX targets Chatswood skyline with 61-storey tower after North Sydney plans</a>

Aqualand is also expanding its development pipeline following the launch of its luxury residential brand, Aqualand Prestige. The developer has delivered a string of high-end apartment projects across Sydney's affluent suburbs over the past decade, most recently AURA by Aqualand on Walker Street in North Sydney.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=292863]

It has since quietly assembled its next wave of projects.

Earlier this year Aqualand launched Boronia in Roseville, a boutique 111-apartment development on Larkin Street. The project is one of the first significant apartment developments to launch in the suburb ahead of what is expected to become one of Sydney's most active new housing precincts under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms, which allow greater density around train stations.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152095 project_image_fid=373685]

The developer has also lodged plans for a two-tower, 413-apartment development on Herbert Street in nearby St Leonards, further strengthening its presence across the Lower North Shore.

Beyond that, Aqualand remains behind the final stage of Barangaroo, where plans will deliver a five-hectare mixed-use precinct comprising new homes, retail, hospitality and community facilities, alongside a new Metro entrance and more than two hectares of public open space, completing the Barangaroo precinct.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/central-barangaroo-development-takes-big-step-with-concept-proposal-approval">Central Barangaroo development takes big step with concept proposal approval</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-aqualand-joins-st-leonards-apartment-party">First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party</a> 
&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

First look: Aqualand pushes ahead with Chatswood apartment tower as SSDA lodged for Archer Street

Mass timber is becoming an increasingly popular construction material in apartment developments, but Adelaide developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/otello">Otello</a> is taking the approach a step further.

At its new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flowe-bowden-18-gibson-street-bowden-sa-5007">Flowe Bowden</a> development, the exposed cross-laminated timber (CLT) structure isn't just about reducing the building's environmental footprint. It also forms the foundation of a broader wellness strategy, influencing everything from indoor air quality and natural materials to the way residents move through and experience the building.

The 115-apartment mixed-use development, designed by Melbourne-based architecture practice Fieldwork, will occupy a prominent island site opposite Bowden Village Reserve, combining one, two and three-bedroom apartments with retail and a dedicated wellness destination.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375528]

Wellness isn't confined to a gym or shared resident facility at Flowe. Instead, Fieldwork embedded the concept into the building itself.

The development has been split into two residential wings connected by a naturally ventilated central breezeway, replacing traditional enclosed corridors with open-air walkways that improve natural light, encourage cross ventilation and create more opportunities for neighbourly interaction.

"Rather than treating wellness as something that only happens on the ground floor, our response integrates it throughout the building, which led us to ask what it really means to design a healthy building," Fieldwork Director Quino Holland said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375531]

The building's architecture also reflects Bowden's industrial heritage. The lower podium references the area's historic brick and sandstone buildings, while the upper levels transition to exposed CLT, allowing the timber structure to become a defining feature throughout the apartments and shared spaces.

The use of mass timber sits alongside a range of sustainability initiatives, including a fully electric, gas-free design, rooftop solar and a targeted 5 Star Green Star rating.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375524]

Inside the residences, the focus remains on natural, durable materials. Blackbutt engineered timber flooring, exposed CLT ceilings, porcelain surfaces and warm timber joinery create a calming interior palette, while low-VOC finishes and responsibly sourced materials have been selected to improve indoor air quality.

Kitchens have been designed as the centrepiece of each apartment, featuring porcelain island benchtops, timber-look cabinetry and brushed steel tapware, with layouts that maximise natural light and ventilation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375530]

The more traditional interpretation of wellness comes in the form of Level Eleven, a two-storey wellness club spanning the ground floor, mezzanine and first floor.

The facility will include a gym, yoga and reformer Pilates studios, Finnish and infrared saunas, magnesium hot and cold plunge pools, and dedicated recovery spaces. Unlike many residential wellness facilities, Level Eleven will also operate commercially, allowing the broader Bowden community to access the venue while giving residents exclusive membership benefits.

The ground floor has also been designed around everyday living. A café overlooking Bowden Village Reserve will activate the street frontage, while a bike workshop with tool storage, co-working space and dog wash has been incorporated to support daily routines and encourage interaction between residents.

"Flowe brings together my two biggest passions, creating places and creating healthier lives," Otello founder Daniel Harris said.

"We wanted to create something Adelaide hasn't seen before, a genuinely healthy building, where the way you live is lifted without even trying."

Flowe is positioned directly opposite Bowden Village Reserve and within walking distance of Bowden Railway Station and the Adelaide Entertainment Centre, placing future residents just minutes from the Adelaide CBD while remaining connected to one of the city's most established urban renewal precincts.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152022]

Otello launches wellness-focused Flowe Bowden with Adelaide-first mass timber apartment design

Not all apartment amenities are immediately visible.

Swimming pools, gyms, rooftop terraces and residents' lounges have long featured on buyers' wishlists, but as the way Australians live has changed, so too have the features that make apartment living more convenient.

Increasingly, buyers are placing value on the practical aspects of day-to-day life. Fast internet, EV charging, secure bike storage, flexible workspaces and parcel management are becoming just as relevant as lifestyle amenities, reflecting changing habits and expectations.

Online shopping has been one of the biggest drivers of that shift.

Australians spent a record $82.6 billion shopping online in 2025, with almost one in every four retail dollars now spent digitally, making parcel deliveries a routine part of everyday life rather than an occasional convenience.

For apartment residents, however, receiving those deliveries isn't always straightforward.

Without someone home to accept a parcel, deliveries can be redirected to a nearby Post Office, left in building foyers or common areas, or require building management to temporarily store packages. As apartment living continues to grow across Australia's cities, parcel management has become an increasingly important consideration for both residents and developers.

Australia Post's Parcel Locker network is one response to that shift.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KPZ9j5FRdsQ?si=Qztc1dNP3ZvEIUhb" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

Rather than relying on home delivery, eligible parcels can be directed to a nominated Parcel Locker, where they're securely stored until collected. Once a parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS and can retrieve it using a one-time code or QR code at a time that suits them.

The network has expanded to more than 1,500 locations nationwide, with Parcel Lockers positioned at Post Offices, shopping centres, supermarkets, transport hubs and, increasingly, within or alongside residential developments.

That growing presence reflects a broader change in how apartment buildings are being planned.

Developers are increasingly considering the operational side of apartment living alongside traditional lifestyle amenities. Just as secure mailrooms, bicycle storage and EV charging have become more common inclusions, parcel management is emerging as another feature that supports everyday convenience.

It also helps preserve the arrival experience within a building. Carefully designed lobbies and communal spaces can quickly become cluttered when deliveries accumulate, while secure parcel solutions reduce the likelihood of missed deliveries or parcels being left unattended.

For buyers comparing apartments, these everyday details are becoming part of the decision-making process.

Location, floorplans and finishes remain fundamental, but the features that simplify daily life are carrying greater weight than they once did. As online shopping continues to shape consumer behaviour, secure parcel delivery is increasingly becoming another amenity worth looking for.

Parcel delivery is joining the apartment amenity checklist

Inca Property Group has lodged a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for Dawn, a 53-apartment oceanfront development overlooking Mona Vale Beach.

The proposal, at 35-39 Darley Street East, would replace an existing 18-apartment strata building with a new owner-occupier-focused development comprising 53 two and three-bedroom apartments, including nine affordable built-to-rent residences delivered under the State's infill affordable housing scheme.

Positioned on a 2,679 sqm elevated site around 280 metres from Mona Vale Beach, the development has been designed to maximise panoramic ocean views while responding to the site's sloping topography.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/inca-property-group">Inca Property Group</a> Managing Director Josh Thompson said the State Significant pathway provided greater certainty for projects of this scale.

"This State Significant pathway gives the team real certainty to progress <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/dawn-35-39-darley-street-east-mona-vale-nsw-2103">Dawn</a> through to completion," Thompson said.

"It allows us to acquire a one-off site, design it carefully and deliver the right offering for the suburb, assessed by the NSW Government's planning department."

The project is one of the first developments in the area to be assessed under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy, with the site sitting on the edge of the policy's designated inner area.

The proposal includes three basement levels providing 124 car spaces, alongside a range of resident amenities including a swimming pool, gym, sauna, wellness facilities and private plunge pools for selected ground-floor and penthouse apartments.

<img alt="Dawn" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fc1a1daf-0ce4-4f12-9076-b1fa553c7a91" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-21%20at%208.42.11%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4GZ9h.gpNkTljbxyAET8Jfhv51XUamDm" />

Thompson said Dawn had been designed specifically for owner-occupiers and downsizers, a buyer profile that has driven demand across Inca's recent Upper North Shore developments.

"The majority of buyers in our recent North Shore projects have been downsizers, and we are learning exactly what this market is looking for. Beyond the location itself, we have included resort-style amenities to deliver a genuine lifestyle offering," Thompson said.

Located within walking distance of Mona Vale Beach, the town centre, Mona Vale Golf Club and the Royal Motor Yacht Club, Dawn represents Inca's first Northern Beaches project following the sell-out of Tara on Park in Waitara and Ellis Residences, currently under construction in St Ives.

Construction will be undertaken by Inca's in-house construction arm, GOP Constructions.

Dawn is the latest major apartment proposal for Mona Vale, with the suburb emerging as one of the key beneficiaries of the NSW Government's new Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy.

New developer One Living, led by industry veteran Joseph Scuderi, recently secured a site on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, where it is planning around 140 apartments.

IPM is also planning its third project in Mona Vale, significantly increasing the scale of its previous developments with an 82-apartment proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/159-167-darley-street-west-mona-vale-nsw-2103">159-167 Darley Street West</a>, opposite Bayview Golf Course and less than 800 metres from Mona Vale town centre.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/one-living-enters-sydneys-new-apartment-market-with-northern-beaches-site-acquisition">One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-ipm-plans-third-mona-vale-project">First look: IPM plans third Mona Vale project</a>

First look: Inca eyes Mona Vale with State Significant DA for Dawn apartments

Tim Lawless

<html><body>
The decline is slowing down in the NT, but values are still on a downward spiral.
CoreLogic’s Total Returns Index for July 2018 showed that the total returns for Darwin fell from 2.5% in the 12 months to July 2018 to just -0.8%. However, the report indicates that, even with this drop, the decrease in values was less sharp over the previous two months.
Regional pockets of the NT recorded much more positive results, with total annual returns jumping from 1.4% to 12.3%. This ties in with rental yields being highlighted as one of the state’s best advantages.
However, while returns favour landlords, rental rates do not. CoreLogic’s Home Value Index showed that Darwin had one of the weakest rental markets among the capital cities, alongside Sydney. Over the 12 months to July 2018, rents fell by 2.2% in Darwin.
With rental conditions generally remaining subdued nationally, the recovery in rental yields is likely to be drawn out.
He also highlights Darwin’s poor performance over the past several years as one of the factors that has contributed to the nationwide slowdown in property prices. CoreLogic’s Property Pulse report for August 2018 indicated that Darwin has had one of the weakest decades among the capital cities. Since March 2013, real dwelling values have fallen by a total of 29%.
We can’t see any factors that may halt or reverse the housing markets’ trajectory of subtle declines over the second half of 2018.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/12/JOB%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/12/JOB%201.jpg" alt="">
Economic stagnation
That Darwin’s property market still doesn’t seem to have hit the bottom spotlights a problem with the local economy.
“Unless there are real job creators out there – major projects – that market will continue to slide,” warns Real Estate Institute of Australia president Malcolm Gunning.
“It’s all underpinned by jobs – it’s not necessarily a destination for retirees. It’s driven by any increase in population, which is driven by work opportunities.”
Nonetheless, Darwin is still recording fairly steady sales of houses in the $1 million range. While lower than the peak figure of 5.9% of all house sales in 2015, the percentage of houses sold at a minimum of $1 million in 2018 was 3.8% – a number that has remained consistent over the 12 months to June 2018.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/12/JOB%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
 
<h3> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/12/JOB%202.jpg" alt="">
</h3>
Suburb to watch
Located in inner Darwin, the suburb of <a href="https://www.yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au/top-suburbs/nt-0820-parap.aspx" target="_blank">Parap</a> is clearly mirroring the city’s slump.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/12/JOB%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/12/JOB%203.jpg" alt=""> 
Values of both houses and units fell over the 12 months to July 2018 by 1.9% and 8.3%, respectively, continuing the negative trend recorded since 2013. This decline is easing in comparison to previous years, which could be a positive sign.
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/12/JOB%204.jpg" alt="">
It seems that units are presenting a better showing than houses – over the year to May 2018, the former recorded higher sales than the latter, at 23 units compared to 14 houses. Moreover, the rental rates for Parap’s apartments increased by 2.3% in this period, for a high average yield of 6.9% – a favourable outcome for investors.
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/12/JOB%205.jpg" alt="">
Yield: Units offer very high returns of almost 7%, compared to houses at 4.6%
Sales: A total of 14 houses and 23 units were sold in the year to May 2018
This article first appeared in <a href="https://www.yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au/market-report/nt/nt-excerpt-from-the-2018-november-market-report-256416.aspx">Your Investment Property Magazine</a> - 2018 November Market Report.
TIM LAWLESS heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team and can be contacted<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank"> here.</a>
</body></html>

tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

The Top End is taking a long time to hit rock bottom: Tim Lawless

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Almost half of Australia’s SA4 sub-regions have recorded a rise in dwelling values over the past twelve months.
With housing values falling across four of the eight capital cities over the past twelve months, it’s easy to forget there are some housing markets around the country that are actually seeing relatively healthy and sustainable growth conditions.  An analysis of Australia’s 88 SA4 sub-regions shows almost half (42) of them have recorded some level of growth in housing values over the past twelve months.  
Half of these regions have recorded a higher rate of annual capital gain relative to their five year average rate of growth, suggesting some acceleration in market conditions over the past twelve months.  In fact, 31 (35%) of the SA4 sub-regions across Australia have recorded an improvement in their rate of capital gain over the past 12 months relative to their five year average rate of growth.  
Regional areas of the country are much more likely to be showing positive growth conditions, with 57% of all regional areas recording a rise in dwelling values over the past twelve months, while only 39% of the capital city sub-regions recorded a rise in values. 
The ‘healthier’ conditions across the regional markets can probably be attributed to a range of factors including:
<ul>
<li>More sustainable growth conditions during the growth phase – most regional areas of Australia have seen relatively sedate housing market conditions compared with the heroic gains across Sydney and Melbourne.  The more sustainable history of price growth has kept a lid on housing affordability and made these markets attractive to migrants, particularly those areas where economic conditions are buoyant. </li>
<li>A ripple of demand has been emanating from the largest capitals towards the satellite cities where housing is generally more affordable and lifestyle factors can be appealing.</li>
<li>Many coastal and lifestyle markets have benefited from a rise in buyer demand, either from those looking for a new residence, second home or investment option.</li>
<li>Many of the hard hit mining regions have now levelled out and are now showing some growth.</li>
</ul>
Some of the capital cities are also showing a broad base to rising values as well. In Brisbane, seven of the nine SA4 sub-regions have seen a rise in values over the past year and in Adelaide three of the four SA4 sub-regions have recorded an annual gain. The opposite is true in markets where growth conditions were previously much stronger; only one of Sydney’s 15 SA4 sub-regions (Central Coast) has recorded an annual rise in dwelling values while in Melbourne only four out of nine SA4 regions have recorded an annual rise.
The sub-region data highlights the diversity across Australia’s housing markets.  While conditions are broadly slowing, especially around Sydney and Melbourne, many areas of the country are benefitting from a history of more sustainable growth rates, improving demand and reasonably strong economic conditions.
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<div class="page" title="Page 3">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
Tim Lawless heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank"> </a>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

The regions where dwelling values are still rising: Tim Lawless

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
EXPERT OBSERVER
The seasonal surge in listing numbers is well underway, with fresh listings being added to the market up 16% relative to the end of winter, however, despite the upswing in new listings, fresh stock additions are tracking almost 4% lower than the at the same time a year ago to be at their lowest seasonal level since 2012. 
The low level of new listing numbers can be attributed to weak vendor confidence; no surprise given housing market conditions have weakened and selling conditions have become more challenging.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/19/stock%20level%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge</a>.
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/19/stock%20level%201.jpg" alt="">
Although freshly advertised stock is low, total advertised listing numbers have been trending higher as the rate of absorption slows. In fact, if the current trend continues, we will see the number of properties available for sale exceed the recent 2012 peak in total advertised stock levels. Total listing numbers are 10.2% higher than year ago and at their highest level for this time of the year since 2012.
The rise in total listing numbers isn’t due to a panicked surge in new listings. This is more about less demand which is causing a rise in relisting’s along with longer selling times and fewer successful sales at auction.
 
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
The typical capital city dwelling sold by private treaty is now taking 53 days to sell compared with 42 days a year ago and discounting rates have risen to an average of 6.5%, up from 6.0% a year ago.
Click here to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/19/stock%20level%203.jpg" target="_blank">enlarge.</a>
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/19/stock%20level%203.jpg" alt="">
More stock means more choice for buyers and harder selling condition for vendors – essentially abuyers’ market. Buyers have little sense of urgency under these conditions; they can negotiate hard, take their time to make a purchase decision, and if they feel a property price doesn’t reflect fairvalue, they can easily move onto the next property option.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/19/stock%20level%204.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge. </a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/19/stock%20level%204.jpg" alt="">
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
With so much competing stock on the market, vendors will need to be reasonable with their pricing expectations and ensure their marketing campaign is as effective as possible in order to stand out from other stock for sale.
Tim Lawless is the national research director of CoreLogic RP Data and can be contacted<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank"> here.</a>
</div>
</div>
</div>
 
</div>
</div>
</div>
 
</div>
</div>
</div></body></html>

Buyers back in the driver's seat as stock levels surge to highest levels since 2012

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
Australia is moving through the peak of an unprecedented boom in apartment construction.
Over the twelve months ending March 2018 there were almost 97,000 medium to high density dwellings that completed construction across Australia; a year earlier there were 105,300 projects that finished construction (84% higher than the decade average).
As at March of this year there were still 155,275 medium to high density projects still under construction.
The majority of this construction work has been centered around the inner city areas of our largest capital cities, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that population densities have surged higher across many inner city areas of our largest cities.
Based on an analysis of population data at the SA2 level (an SA2 region is a standard geographical classification roughly the size of a suburb in the cities or a town in regional areas), the highest density area in Australia is now Melbourne.
45,231 people reside within the 2.4 square kilometre area, equating to a population density of just over 19,100 people per square kilometre.
The population of the area has increased from 7,644 in 2001 – an increase of almost 500% over 16 years.
Apartment values in the area are relatively low with a median of $444,000, providing a relatively low cost entry point to a housing market located right in the middle of one of Australia’s largest working populations.
Back in 2001, the Melbourne SA2 region ranked 114th in the country with a population of only 3,229 and a population density of 7,644 persons per square kilometre.
Potts Point – Woolloomooloo showed the highest population density, followed by Surry Hills.
In fact, back in 2001, the top 12 areas of highest population density were all located in Sydney, with St Kilda East recording the highest population density outside of Sydney (6,259 people per square kilometre).
The 20 most densely populated areas of Australia are all confined to Sydney and Melbourne. Fifteen of the top 20 areas are in Sydney and five are in Melbourne.
While high density living may not be everyone’s cup of tea, it makes sense for many, especially for students and young professionals who work and play in and around the city centre.
Focusing on the Melbourne SA2 area again, two thirds of the resident population are aged between 20 and 34, with the most significant age group being 20-24 year olds (31% of the population).
High density living generally involves less time commuting, lower housing prices and plenty of choice for amenities.
Of course there are going to some downsides to high density living, like the potential for noise pollution, tight living spaces, elevator congestion at peak times, overcrowded or poorly maintained communal areas and limited access to green space.
The latest small area population numbers from the ABS are already a year old, and, considering the record number of apartments under construction across Australia, our inner city areas are going to increase in density further from here.
Densification makes sense from a town planning perspective – it reduces urban sprawl and the necessity to continually invest in transport infrastructure linking the outer fringes of the cities.
From a livability perspective, some people will thrive in a high density environment, while others will crave the peace and quiet of the burbs. Lucky Australia has such as broad range of housing options.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/4/density%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click to open in new window</a> 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/4/density%201.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/4/density%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click to open in new window</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/4/density%202.jpg" alt="">
TIM LAWLESS heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team and can be contacted<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank"> here.</a>
</body></html>

The highest density living options in Australia: Tim Lawless

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
CoreLogic’s latest housing affordability report highlighted a subtle improvement in housing affordability based on a ratio of household incomes to dwelling prices.
Nationally, the ratio reduced to 6.81 over the June quarter, down from a record high of 6.84 over the March quarter of 2018.
The ratio simply means that for a typical Australian household, the typical dwelling price is about 6.8 times more than their gross annual income.
The improvement in affordability is attributable to a subtle rise in household incomes; up 0.3% between the March and June quarter, while dwelling prices slipped 0.2% lower over the quarter nationally based on the change in median selling price.
While the national view on housing affordability is important from a macro perspective, there is an extreme range of housing affordability across the country.
Some regional areas, particularly those associated with the mining sector where incomes tend to be high and housing prices have slumped substantially since the end of the mining boom, housing affordability is generally very healthy.
For example, in the Western Australian town of Leonora (about 240 kilometres north of Kalgoorlie), the median dwelling price is just $45,000 and the median household income is just over $57,000 per annum providing for a ratio of just 0.69.
At the other extreme, some of the areas around Sydney (Rose Bay- Vaucluse-Watsons Bay and Castle Hill East) show a dwelling price to income ratio upwards of 20.
Dwelling price to income measures across small geographic areas highlight the challenge isn’t confined to just the most expensive suburbs.
Across Sydney, where the overall dwelling price to income ratio is 9.1, every region of the city shows a ratio higher than 6.1 and almost half (49%) of the areas show a ratio higher than 10.
Areas where housing costs are relatively low such as the Outer West and Central Coast generally show a lower income profile which keeps the dwelling price to income ratio elevated even though housing prices are typically viewed as more affordable in these areas.
The widespread affordability challenges across Sydney highlight that fixing the affordability issue isn’t as simple as building more roads and highways in order to free up access to lower priced markets – even the areas located a long way from the city centre and key working nodes, with inefficient transport connections are woefully unaffordable in Sydney.
Affordability pressures are far less substantial in markets like Brisbane (dwelling price to income ratio of 6.0) and Perth (5.9).
Despite being Australia’s third and fourth largest cities, housing trends have been much softer in these areas.
Median prices have risen at the annual rate of 3.0% and 0.2% in each city respectively over the past five years while incomes rose at the annual pace of 1.8% and 0.7% over the same period.
Only three (1.3%) regions of Brisbane have a dwelling price to income ratio that is 10 or higher while in Perth only six (4.0%) regions have a ratio of 10 or higher.
With a federal election around the corner, no doubt we will see a lot more discussion around housing; after all housing comprises almost 55% of household wealth across the country and seems to always be a popular topic amongst voters.
Let’s hope the debate and policy announcements extend further than the topics of negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions and we see the federal government doing a lot more to work with state and local governments on housing affordability solutions.
TIM LAWLESS heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team and can be contacted<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank"> here.</a>
</body></html>

Subtle improvements in housing affordability identified: Tim Lawless

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
CoreLogic’s recently released Pain and Gain report highlighted a growing divergence between houses and units for loss making resales. 
Unit markets recorded a higher proportion of loss making resales relative to houses across every broad region of Australia over the June quarter.  
The latest CoreLogic Pain and Gain report provides a summary of gross profit and loss making resales across the country. The results show a consistent and long underperformance across the unit sector, and more recently, a growing divergence between the proportion of houses and units reselling at a gross loss. The June quarter report revealed that 14.3% of units that resold across the capital cities transacted at a gross loss; roughly double the rate of loss making house resales. Across the combined regional areas of Australia, loss making unit resales comprised 16.1% of transactions while a lower 10.3% of houses resold at a gross loss.
Every capital city and rest of state region across the country has seen the unit sector record a larger proportion of loss making sales across the unit sector compared with detached housing, however the differential is substantial in those cities where unit values have fallen more materially.
Across the capital cities, Darwin stands out as showing the highest proportion of loss making unit resales, with 71% of units reselling at a loss over the June quarter. Considering Darwin unit values have fallen 44% since peaking in May 2010, the high rate of loss on resales should come as no surprise; in fact Darwin unit values are back to the same level they were in February 2005. Darwin house values haven’t fall any where near as much, down 11% since peaking.  
Regional Western Australia has recorded the second highest level of loss making resales for units (56.7%) followed by Perth at 47.8%. Both regions have seen unit values fall substantially more than house values. Since peaking in January 2008, regional WA unit values are down 47.5% and are now back to levels seen in 1988. In Perth, unit values are 18.2% lower after peaking in July 2013 and are now worth the same value as they were in May 2006.
Amongst the capital cities, Brisbane also stood out for a high rate of loss making unit resales, with 29.2% transacting at a gross loss over the quarter compared with only 4.1% of houses selling at a gross loss. Brisbane unit values are back to where they were in August 2007 after declining by 10.8% from their 2008 peak.  
The lowest rates of loss making unit resales were in those regions where unit values have shown more buoyant conditions. Hobart recorded the lowest portion of loss making unit resales, with only 2.9% reselling at a gross loss over the June quarter. Hobart unit values are at a record high after recording solid capital gains over the past few years. It was only five years ago, after a long period of weak housing market conditions, when 25% of Hobart units were reselling at a gross loss.  
The Sydney unit market was showing the second lowest proportion of loss making unit resales over the June quarter. Despite rising levels of unit supply, only 3.5% of Sydney units resold at a gross loss over the quarter. Unit values are down 2.6% since peaking in November last year, and values remain 43% higher relative to five years ago. With a recent history of such strong capital gains, the vast majority of Sydney unit owners are still in a positive value position relative to their purchase price, however as values continue to slip lower and supply levels rise, we are likely to see loss making resales rise.
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/24/tim%20lawless%201.jpeg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/9/24/tim%20lawless%201.jpeg" alt="">
There are a variety of factors that could be contributing to the higher proportion of loss making sales across the unit market. 
For starters, units are more likely to be owned by investors. Around 68% of units are investor owned, 51% of townhouses are owned by investors and only 22% of houses.  CoreLogic Pain and Gain data shows investor owned dwellings have a higher propensity to resell at a loss which is probably attributable to the fact that investors can take advantage of taxation benefits such as offsetting their losses against future capital gains.  
Unit markets can be more prone to oversupply. This trend has been evident across the Brisbane and Melbourne inner city markets to different extents.  Focusing on some of the key inner city unit markets, Brisbane’s inner city recorded 32% of unit resales at a loss over the quarter and Melbourne’s inner city recorded 22% at a loss. Unit construction has been winding down across Queensland since late 2016, but remains at record levels across Victoria and close to record highs in New South Wales. With unit values now falling in Sydney and Melbourne and the pipeline at, or close to record highs, its likely that loss making resales will diverge further in these markets.
There is also the factor of the underlying land value. Even though dwelling values are sliding in some markets, land prices have generally held firm or continued to trend higher.  Detached houses have a stronger relationship with land values which is likely contributing to the long run trend of higher capital gains for houses relative to units.
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/24/tim%20lawless%202.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/24/tim%20lawless%202.jpg" alt=""> 
Tim Lawless heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team
</body></html>

Unit owners are more likely to record a loss at sale: Tim Lawless

<html><body>
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
Overall, it’s hard to see a scenario where Australian housing values could fall off a cliff.
For this to happen we would need to see a material about face in labour market conditions, a global shock or a material rise in interest rates– none of which seems to be a likely outcome at the moment.
Without a doubt, housing risks are heighted relative to a year ago. Dwelling values are slipping lower nationally (down 2% since peaking in September last year), mortgage rates are edging higher (up by around 15 basis points from three of the four major banks announcing a rate rise in September) and mortgage arrears have moved off their record lows (but still only around 0.6% of all mortgages are 90+ days in arrears). All this against a backdrop of record high levels of household debt (the ratio of disposable income to household debt reached 190% in March this year), increasing levels of housing supply and rising domestic and global uncertainty.
It should come as no surprise that some commentators are forecasting a substantial reduction in dwelling values. We saw similar forecasts during previous downturns from the likes of Steven Keen, Harry Dent and Jeremey Grantham as well as many others. The most recent dire prediction to get mainstream airplay was from Martin North predicting a 40-45% fall in dwelling values; albeit with only a 20% chance of this occurring. Since airing on 60Minutes, the segment titled ‘Bricks and Slaughter’ has seen the two primary experts featured, Martin North and Louie Christopher, clarifying their televised comments which were apparently presented in an unbalanced context: a presentation of the worst case scenario with no regard for the most likely outcome.
If we look at the current downturn in Australian housing, the trajectory of decline is actually quite unremarkable.
Australia’s largest housing market, Sydney, has seen values fall by 5.6% sincepeaking in July last year; a trajectory that is straight down the middle of previous downturns. During the GFC, Sydney dwelling values fell by 7.0% in the space of twelve months, and the downturn before that (2003-2006) saw values fall 7.1% over the same number of months.
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
Australia’s second largest city, Melbourne, has seen values falling since November last year. Since that time the market is down a cumulative 3.5% and the descent has generally been milder relative to previous downturns.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/21/CORELOGIC%201.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/21/CORELOGIC%201.jpg" target="_blank"> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/21/CORELOGIC%201.jpg" alt=""></a>
 
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
Even in markets where values have been falling consistently for more than four years on the back of a material weakening in economic and demographicconditions, we haven’t seen values fall by anywhere near 40%. Perth dwellingvalues peaked in 2014 and have fallen by 12.6% and in Darwin where conditions have been even tougher, dwelling values are down 21.8%.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/21/CORELOGIC%202.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/21/CORELOGIC%202.jpg" alt="">
Recently released housing value forecasts from Moody’s Analytics certainly paints a less gloomy picture of housing markets over the coming years. While, growth is forecast to be subdued relative to previous years, the forecast is for a relatively mild downturn, with national house and unit values returning to mild positive annual growth by the middle of 2019.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/21/CORELOGIC%203.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/21/CORELOGIC%203.jpg" alt="">
 
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
The Moody’s Analytics forecasts are based on an econometric model whichuses CoreLogic’s Hedonic Index data as a base to forecast from. Their upbeat assessment of dwelling values is based on rising business investment, particularly in the non-mining sector, a rise in infrastructure spending, above trend jobs growth, and ongoing low interest rates.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/21/CORELOGIC%204.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/21/CORELOGIC%204.jpg" alt="">
Of course the outlook for housing conditions is varied across the regions. Bythe end of 2019, Moody’s is expecting every capital city except Hobart (-2.4%) to record a positive annual change in house values, with year on year rises ranging from 4.5% in Canberra and Adelaide to a 0.9% rise in Perth dwelling values.
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="page" title="Page 3">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
Forecasting the movement in asset values is challenging at the best of times. With so much uncertainty at the moment it’s even harder. Several wildcards remain that could have a negative impact on the direction of housing values.
Households are more sensitive than ever to interest rate movements due to the record level of household debt. Roughly, 70% of household debt is housing related, which implies small changes to mortgage rates could have an amplified impact on household balance sheets. Further out of cycle movements in mortgage interest rates could have a negative impact on the market. On the flipside, if the RBA decides to cut the cash rate further (a possible scenario of economic conditions weakened and housing price falls accelerated), this would likely see a rise in housing activity and help to place a floor under housing prices.
There is also the potential for changes to property taxation policies that could have a further dampening effect on investment demand. Based on the value of new housing finance commitments, investors still comprise around 41% of mortgage demand, down from 55% in mid-2015. Investor concentrations remain well above their long term averages across New South Wales (49% of housing finance commitments) and Victoria (41% of housing finance commitments), implying Sydney and Melbourne would have more to lose if investor activity were to drop more substantially. Investors are already being disincentivised by falling prices, mortgage rate premiums and low rental yields; additional disincentives from tax reform could see demand reduce further, creating some slack in the overall demand composition for Australian housing.
In balance, even with mortgage rates edging higher, we are still in the lowestmortgage rate environment since the 1960’s. Population growth remainsstrong and maintaining a consistent migration policy seems to have support from both sides of politics which will continue to support demand for housing. Labour markets are reasonably healthy with unemployment holding at 5.3% and likely to trend lower, underemployment at the lowest rate since May 2014 and jobs growth above the long term trend.
Overall, it’s hard to see a scenario where Australian housing values could fall off a cliff. For this to happen we would need to see a material about face in labour market conditions, a global shock or a material rise in interest rates –none of which seems to be a likely outcome at the moment.
TIM LAWLESS heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team and can be contacted<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank"> here.</a>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Is the property market really all that bad? CoreLogic's Tim Lawless

<html><body>
<div>
<div class="paragraph paragraph--type--wysiwyg-text paragraph--view-mode--default">
<div class="field_text">
Brisbane is well placed to take over as the best performing capital city housing market over the next five years.  
Dwelling values across Australia’s third largest capital city have risen at the annual rate of 1.2% of the past decade; that’s half the pace of inflation and dramatically lower than Sydney or Melbourne where annual gains have averaged 6.3% and 5.9% over the past ten years.
Brisbane’s housing market won’t outperform other cities simply because the market has previously underperformed, however the relative gap in pricing between Australia’s largest cities is likely to be one of the factors that attracts housing demand to the city.  At the end of November 2017 Sydney house values were 102% higher than Brisbane’s and Melbourne values were 57% higher.  
Based on median household incomes, Sydney households are earning only 12.9% more than households in Brisbane’s and incomes across Melbourne are actually 0.7% lower than Brisbane’s.  
Clearly households aren’t as affected by affordability in Brisbane as significantly as they are in the larger capitals.  This is also visible from more formal affordability measures such as the dwelling price to income ratio and the proportion of household income required to service a mortgage. In Sydney, the dwelling price to income ratio is 9.1 compared with 7.5 in Melbourne and 5.9 in Brisbane.  Similarly, the proportion of gross annual household income required to service an 80% LVR mortgage is now 48.4% in Sydney compared with 39.9% in Melbourne and 31.7% in Brisbane.
Importantly, there are a variety of economic and demographic factors that are likely to support improving market conditions across Brisbane including economic and demographic trends as well as a worsening performance across the larger cities of Sydney and Melbourne which will provide a lower relative benchmark for Brisbane.
Population growth from both overseas and interstate is ramping up into Queensland, with the majority of this growth being experienced within the South East corner of the state.  Net overseas migration remains well below New South Wales and Victoria, however it’s the highest in a bit more than three years.  
Net interstate migration is where Queensland is demonstrating its pulling power, attracting the highest number of residents from other states in eight and a half years.  Net migrants crossing the state border into Queensland is now the highest of any state, outpacing Victoria for the first time since June 2013.
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<div class="paragraph paragraph--type--highlight-text paragraph--view-mode--default">
<div class="field_highlight_text">Higher migration rates implies more demand for housing which should help to support an improvement in capital gains.</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<div class="paragraph paragraph--type--wysiwyg-text paragraph--view-mode--default">
<div class="field_text">
The labour market is also strengthening across Queensland.  Jobs growth across the state was the fastest of any state or territory.  Based on trend data, the annual rate of jobs growth reached 4.8% over the twelve months ending November 2017, substantially higher than any other region.  In raw numbers, 113,000 jobs were created across Queensland over the past year, more than New South Wales (111,000) and Victoria (94,000).
Jobs are an essential component of a healthy housing market and a strong labour force has been a key missing ingredient from the Brisbane housing market up until recently.  The improved jobs sector, together with high rates of migration and an affordable mix of housing is a solid recipe for stronger housing market conditions.  
Although Im expecting Brisbane to outperform, at least over the medium term, there are likely to be some headwinds that will prevent a surge in housing values.  Credit conditions are much tighter now relative to the period between 2012 and 2016 when Sydney and Melbourne experienced their peak rates of growth.  The unit market is also likely to hold back the performance of the housing somewhat due to unprecedented supply of new units over recent years.  
Additionally, while mortgage rates are likely to remain around their current historically low setting until around 2019, the cost of debt will eventually move higher which is likely to curb any momentum in the housing market when it eventuates. 
Although Brisbane looks primed to experience an improvement in housing market conditions over coming years, I wouldn’t necessarily expect that the rate of growth in Brisbane will reach the heights of those experienced in Sydney and Melbourne over recent years.
To read the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/could-brisbane-take-over-best-performing-capital-city-housing-market-5-years#.Wnjl3JP1X-Z" target="_blank">original article click here.</a>
Tim Lawless is head of the CoreLogic research and analytics team and can be contacted <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank">here</a>.
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Can Brisbane become a top house price performer? 

<html><body>
<div>
Sydney home values could fall up to 10 per cent over the next two years, Corelogic head of research Tim's Lawless has predicted.
<div>
"We expect values in Sydney to fall between 5 to 10 per cent over an 18 to 24 month period," Lawless told Fairfax Media given tighter credit policies will hurt Sydney more than other capitals given it was more exposed to investors.
"Be cautious because you don't want to buy and see yourself in negative equity straight away," he said.
CoreLogic expects softer national housing market conditions through 2018, driven by the Sydney slowdown and Melbourne, but to a lesser extent.
"We're likely to see lower to negative growth rates across previously strong markets, more cautious buyers, and ongoing regulator vigilance of credit standards and investor activity," Mr Lawless anticipates.
Unlike when capital city dwelling values fell by 1.6 per cent between late 2015 and early 2016, growth rates won't rebounded this time, he forecast.
He said it was not likely there would be a "similar lifeline thrown to the housing market" via either lower interest rates or loosening credit conditions.
</div>
Sydney property values fell 0.9 per cent in the month of December 2017, leading a 0.3 per cent fall nationally in dwelling values.
Sydney property values fell 2.1 per cent over the December quarter to end up just 3.1 per cent for the year at a median of $895,000.
</div>
<div><img src="http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/h/0/c/9/l/y/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1514846784962.jpg" alt="Dwelling value changes over 2017" width="620" data-src="http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/h/0/c/9/l/y/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1514846784962.jpg"></div>
<div>"The city's annual rate of growth is now tracking at just 3.1 per cent; a stark difference to the recent cyclical peak when values were rising at the annual rate of 17.1  per cent only seven months ago," Lawless noted.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Despite the reversal in growth rates since August 2017, Sydney dwelling values remain 70.8% higher than their cyclical low point in February 2012."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"[Melbourne's] housing market has been far more resilient to negative growth compared with Sydney due to factors such as stronger population growth, lower affordability hurdles and a higher rate of jobs growth, however the growth trend has been clearly moderating since late 2016 and Melbourne's annual rate of capital gain, at 8.9 percent, has fallen below double digits for the first time in eleven months," Mr Lawless said.</div>
</body></html>

Sydney property buyers cautioned about negative equity with 5 percent to 10 percent price falls tipped

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
National dwelling values held steady in November, with a 0.1% fall in capital city dwelling values offsetting a 0.2% rise in values across the combined regional markets of Australia, according to CoreLogic’s November Hedonic Home Value Index results.
According to CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless, a significant contributor to the downwards movement over the month came from the Sydney housing market, which recorded a 0.7% fall in dwelling values, while a fall in values was also recorded across Darwin and regional Northern Territory which were both down 0.4% over the month. For the remaining broad regions of Australia, dwelling values were relatively steady, or experienced a subtle rise, over the month.
National dwelling values tracked 0.2% higher over the past three months and have increased 5.2% over the twelve months ending November. The national annual growth rate has now halved since reaching a recent peak in May 2017, when dwelling values rose 10.4%.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/12/1/index1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
</div>
</div>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/1/index1.jpg" alt="">
Conditions remain diverse across the regions
Mr Lawless said, “The diversity in capital city housing market conditions is highlighted by the rolling quarterly change in dwelling values, which range from a 3.3% rise in Hobart, to a 2.7% decline in Darwin. However, considering that together these two cities account for less than 1.5% of total housing stock in Australia, they have had little effect on the overall headline figures.”
He said, “On the other hand, softer housing market conditions across Sydney, which comprises roughly one fifth of national dwelling stock (and approximately one third by value), has a material influence over the headline growth trends.”
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/12/1/Index2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/1/Index2.jpg" alt="">
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
The Sydney housing market moved through a recent peak in July 2017 and dwelling values have been trending lower each month since that time. Dwelling values were down 0.7% in November to be 1.3% lower relative to the market peak. Sydney’s 1.3% fall over the past three months is the greatest decline over a three month period since March 2016. While the rate of value decline in Sydney has gathered some momentum, it remains extremely modest.
Lawless believes there is mounting evidence that the Perth housing market may finally have bottomed out.
Dwelling values across Perth have edged higher over each of the past three months to record the first rolling quarterly capital gain since late 2014. The three months to November saw Perth dwelling values rise by 0.3%.
In addition to values moving off their low base, settled sales are rising (+3.8% year on year), homes are selling faster (59 days compared with 68 days a year ago) and advertised stock levels have reduced substantially (-12.7% compared with last year). He said, “If this is indeed the start of a recovery phase in the Perth housing market, it comes after dwelling values have fallen 10.8% since peaking in mid-2014.”
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
 
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div></body></html>

Tim Lawless

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Tim Lawless

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News