An entity directed by HSN's Rafi Assouline and Rebel Property's Allen Linz has filed plans for an impressive new precinct in Woolloomooloo.

The major mixed-use development would transform a prominent William Street site into a new residential village anchored by affordable housing and a large public park.

The proposal, submitted as a State Significant Development Application, covers 164-172 and 174-194 William Street, a 6,398 sqm site between Forbes Street and Dowling Street on the southern edge of Woolloomooloo.

Designed by fjcstudio in collaboration with Bangawarra, Studio Bright and Tribe Studio Architects, the scheme would deliver 227 apartments across four residential buildings ranging in height up to 18 storeys, alongside retail space, public domain improvements and a new publicly accessible park.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0eb59b7c-914a-4a5c-b849-3a56749f5e93" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.18.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=mxM6EEqeoLjrCiTlCzTKTvzpKuh6kSkH" />

It's another design scheme for Rebel, who took <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-rebel-property-group-takes-woolloomooloo-precinct-to-nsw-government">concept plans to the NSW Gov late last year</a>.

The latest plans will be a mix of 167 build-to-sell apartments and 60 affordable apartments, with the affordable housing component representing 15 per cent of the project's gross floor area. The apartment mix includes 12 one-bedroom, 53 two-bedroom, 89 three-bedroom apartments and 13 penthouses, while the affordable housing component would comprise 42 one-bedroom and 18 two-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3b3d4553-8a8c-4af5-aa8c-519ffb1e28c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.12%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_Yb6ibN7eDnOtQjCNDK2eviORa4qzgv." />

Rebel Property is seeking to take advantage of the NSW Government's infill affordable housing bonus provisions under the Housing SEPP, which provide additional floor space and height in exchange for the delivery of affordable housing for a minimum of 15 years. The planning pathway allows a 30 per cent increase in floor space ratio and building height where 15 per cent of the development is dedicated to affordable housing.

&nbsp;

At the centre of the development is a 1,356 sqm sunlit public park designed to become a new community gathering space at the gateway to Woolloomooloo. The park would be complemented by a network of pedestrian laneways connecting William Street with the surrounding streets, improving permeability through what is currently a largely impermeable block.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="257af931-a393-4007-8c6d-7219796df58d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=KAHy94GrhaReFsWTGDKfy39EDJ8gEEv4" />

The design team says the public domain has been heavily influenced by the site's topography and Aboriginal cultural heritage, drawing on the escarpments, gullies and landscape characteristics that historically defined the area before urbanisation. The landscape design has been developed in partnership with First Nations consultancy Bangawarra.

The project would be delivered across four separate buildings. The William Street East and William Street West buildings, designed by fjcstudio, would contain the majority of the apartments. Melbourne-based Studio Bright has designed the Forbes Street building, while Tribe Studio Architects is responsible for the Dowling Street building.

Rebel had secured approval for the concept plans late last year.

Joel Robinson

First look: HSN, Rebel, advances Woolloomooloo precinct plans

A locally heritage-listed furniture showroom on Water Street is set to become the centrepiece of a new mixed-use residential development as local developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/keylin-group">Keylin</a> seeks approval for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lotus-on-water-street-290-water-street-fortitude-valley-qld-4006">Lotus on Water Street</a>, a 15-storey project on the Fortitude Valley side of Spring Hill.

The proposal spans 290 Water Street and 137-141 Warry Street, combining several properties into a 2,869 sqm site that sits between Fortitude Valley, Spring Hill and the rapidly evolving Victoria Park precinct. Keylin's plans would deliver 132 apartments alongside new retail, hospitality and commercial space, while retaining and repurposing the historic Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom that fronts Water Street.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/jackson-teece">Jackson Teece</a>, Lotus on Water Street comprises a 12-storey residential tower rising above a three-storey podium and communal rooftop terrace. The development includes 76 apartments classified as multiple dwellings and a further 56 units proposed as short-term accommodation, designed to be flexibly used as either accommodation or permanent residences. The apartment mix comprises six one-bedroom, 54 two-bedroom and 16 three-bedroom homes.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9822bb79-6c49-49c9-95ba-319e8c8d81c3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20front.png?VersionId=ioW8zbN4UVebbLetTFuv92t.HkdgfR5e" />

Residents would have access to an extensive rooftop recreation level spanning more than 1,200 sqm of communal open space. Plans include a pool, gym, sauna, infrared sauna, yoga area, library, private dining room, barbecue facilities and landscaped entertainment spaces, making the rooftop the project's largest shared amenity offering.

At street level, the proposal focuses on the adaptive reuse of the heritage buildings along Water Street, where 518 sqm of retail and commercial space is planned across shop, office and food and drink outlet uses. A permeable residential lobby would be positioned between the retained heritage buildings, creating a pedestrian connection between the historic streetscape and the new tower behind.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="269cf3e0-7d13-48bf-a318-05a00deb5c10" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20podium.png?VersionId=DLXmTCLsp6GOcLpQ0h.0z7wKCw59EhN_" />

The heritage retention strategy is central to the scheme. The development application notes that the Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom and adjoining heritage buildings will remain, with only non-significant structures on the site earmarked for removal under a previously issued Heritage Exemption Certificate. Levels one and two of the new podium are recessed behind the heritage façades to maintain their prominence within the streetscape.

Jackson Teece has drawn inspiration from the site's manufacturing history when designing the podium. The planning documents state that the façade incorporates perforated metal screening that references the woven and rattan furniture historically produced on the site. Cascading and climbing plants are integrated throughout the podium to soften the building's presentation and screen parking levels behind. The landscape strategy also informs the project's name, Lotus on Water Street, drawing on the historic Spring Hollow waterholes that once ran through Spring Hill and the blue water lilies associated with Meeanjin, Brisbane's traditional name.

The proposal also incorporates the neighbouring property at 141 Warry Street, currently occupied by a healthcare service. The existing building would remain, with nine dedicated parking spaces allocated within the new development to support its ongoing operation. In total, Lotus on Water Street proposes 117 car spaces, including 110 resident spaces and seven visitor bays, alongside 100 bicycle spaces.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="70cf07bc-4fd8-4e70-92dd-be8b21c4e4f0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20site.png?VersionId=txlxrJImM0Sm_vTzHVKh5DDUkyL_CiiA" />

The site sits within the Spring Hill East Precinct of the Spring Hill Neighbourhood Plan and is positioned around 650 metres from both Fortitude Valley Station and Exhibition Station. It is also within walking distance of the King Street precinct, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Herston Quarter and Victoria Park, which is earmarked to become a major venue precinct ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Planning documents describe the location as a key gateway between Spring Hill and Fortitude Valley and highlight the area's increasing importance as new transport infrastructure and Olympic-related investment reshape Brisbane's inner north. The development team argues the project will contribute additional housing supply while activating a section of Water Street that has historically received less investment than other parts of the Valley.

Keylin has become increasingly active across Brisbane and southeast Queensland, assembling sites in strategic inner-city locations. They are currently selling and delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/oria-spring-hill-447-gregory-terrace-spring-hill-qld-4000">Oria Spring Hill</a>, just over 140 apartments due for completion in 2027.

Keylin plans heritage-led Lotus on Water Street apartment development in Fortitude Valley

Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

State Economy

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVERS
A <a href="http://productivity.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-08/Productivity_Commission_Green%20Paper_FINAL.pdf" target="_blank">new report</a> from the New South Wales Productivity Commission (NSWPC) announces that “[higher] housing costs […] impose broader economic costs”. That chimes with our own <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/research/projects/extending-economic-cases-housing-policies-rents-ownership-and-assets/" target="_blank">newly published research</a>. The implication is that Australia’s heavily capitalised housing market will weigh down economic recovery from the shocks of the coronavirus pandemic.
A niche group of economists and epidemiologists had <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-17/analysts-forecast-coronavirus-recession-what-comes-post-covid-19/12256246" target="_blank">warned</a> the world for decades that a pandemic would have devastating economic and social consequences. When it comes to Australia’s housing, though, the COVID-19 crisis has <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-lays-bare-5-big-housing-system-flaws-to-be-fixed-137162" target="_blank">only served to highlight</a> deep and long-standing faultlines.
The housing system has produced <a href="https://theconversation.com/housing-policy-reset-is-overdue-and-not-only-in-australia-112835" target="_blank">triple crises</a> of <a href="https://theconversation.com/6-steps-towards-remaking-the-homelessness-system-so-it-works-for-young-people-136385" target="_blank">rising homelessness</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/focus-on-managing-social-housing-waiting-lists-is-failing-low-income-households-120675" target="_blank">growing queues</a> for <a href="https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/providers/housing/affordable/about" target="_blank">non-market, affordable housing</a> and the pervasive <a href="https://www.domain.com.au/news/australian-house-price-growth-outpaced-wage-growth-in-the-last-financial-year-data-shows-984662" target="_blank">affordability problems</a> for middle- and lower-income households who depend on the private housing market. All these pressures were building well before the pandemic.
However, a particularly cruel COVID-19 effect has been the concentration of pandemic impacts on public-facing economic sectors and jobs. <a href="https://theconversation.com/low-paid-young-women-the-grim-truth-about-who-this-recession-is-hitting-hardest-141892" target="_blank">Younger people and female employees</a> have been hit hardest. The fallout in the lower end of the labour market will only make existing pressures worse.
Australia is about to embark on an audacious economic and social experiment as it tries to wind back the JobKeeper and JobSeeker programs temporarily protecting about <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/jobkeeper-review" target="_blank">3.5 million people</a>. Treasury projections envisage a gradual withdrawal. In reality, especially if any eviction moratoria are allowed to lapse, the start of this process will likely trigger huge immediate challenges in managing the housing and homelessness fallout.
Beyond that, the recession will drive home the need for political leaders to more fully appreciate the integral role of housing in the economy. The housing system plays key roles in shaping economic productivity, stability and inequality.
<h2>How on earth did we get here?</h2>
For many decades economics-leaning policymakers have assumed the housing market is largely a well-functioning system driven by helpful economic forces. Most famously personified in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/whos-to-blame-for-rising-house-prices-we-are-actually-20161026-gsamj2" target="_blank">comments by</a> former prime minister John Howard, and very much in tune with <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/documents/525/C2_The_housing_story_An_Australian_Perspective.pdf" target="_blank">dominant media messaging</a>, Australian governments have generally welcomed rising house prices as signifying consumer confidence. Even <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.5.4.167" target="_blank">academic researchers</a> and government analysts have cited house prices as a sign of the “success” of cities and regions.
More recently, ever-rising house prices have finally been recognised as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-13/economic-inequality-largely-boils-down-to-housing-inequality" target="_blank">a driver of wealth inequality</a>. The problem is linked to rising mortgage debt and <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-18/household-debt-australia-world-champions/11682628" target="_blank">increasingly recognised</a> as likely to add to instabilities in the macro economy and financial system.
There are also growing policy concerns that city living is becoming too expensive. This in turn harms economic productivity. [<a href="https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=CITIES" target="_blank">OECD data</a>] show Australia is on a similar path to the US, with the metropolitan share of national GDP per capita falling in recent years.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356867/original/file-20200908-24-l94su0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356867/original/file-20200908-24-l94su0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="Chart showing metropolitan GDP per capita as percentage of national value"></a>
Metropolitan GDP per capita has been declining in Australia and some other countries. Data: OECD, Author provided
<h2>How has policy thinking become so blurred?</h2>
The NSWPC report recognises that the combination of <a href="https://www.anglicare.asn.au/research-advocacy/the-rental-affordability-snapshot" target="_blank">excessive rents</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-insecurity-of-private-renters-how-do-they-manage-it-77324" target="_blank">insecure tenure</a> can damage children’s educational attainment and prospects. Prices and rents are <a href="https://www.greater.sydney/metropolis-of-three-cities/liveability/housing-city/housing-more-diverse-and-affordable" target="_blank">particularly unaffordable in Sydney</a>, making it a more stressful place to live and work. Resulting migration to other parts of the country reduces employers’ access to the supply of willing and productive labour, thus damaging productivity.
But the NSWPC analysis of housing-to-economy interactions does not go anything like far enough. As <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/research/projects/extending-economic-cases-housing-policies-rents-ownership-and-assets/" target="_blank">our research</a> shows, Australia’s dysfunctional housing system results in a battery of other economically harmful impacts. These include:
<ul>
<li>
long-term policies that have diverted savings and investment into rising property and land prices, with minimal or no employment or productivity benefit
</li>
<li>
excessive rent and mortgage burdens <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2019/pdf/rdp2019-06.pdf" target="_blank">diverting household spending from other consumption</a> with greater productivity impacts
</li>
<li>
a dysfunctional housing system that reduces household savings for the longer term, as well as contributing to <a href="https://theconversation.com/fall-in-ageing-australians-home-ownership-rates-looms-as-seismic-shock-for-housing-policy-120651" target="_blank">falling rates of home ownership</a> and personal asset accumulation for future generations of older people.
</li>
</ul>
Perhaps worst of all, the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-18/household-debt-leaves-australians-working-longer-spending-less/11608016#:%7E:text=Australians%20have%20the%20world's%20second%2Dlargest%20household%20debts.&amp;text=On%20an%20individual%20level%2C%2037,a%20problem%20for%20them%20personally." target="_blank">high private housing debt</a> in Australia is among the worst in the world. The International Monetary Fund (<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2018/09/25/Global-Financial-Stability-Report-October-2018" target="_blank">IMF</a>) and the <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/fiscal-policy-is-the-new-game-in-town-says-oecd-20180530-h10r2t" target="_blank">OECD</a> recognise this debt as a threat to financial and economic stability.
 
Economics students are taught the “paradox of thrift”: when an individual saves, it benefits them in the long run. When too many people save, it harms economic growth.
In a similar way, rising housing prices benefit owners of houses and/or investments. But when we scale up to the level of a locality, city, state or economy, rising prices have a profound negative impact.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356834/original/file-20200907-16-j1p6o4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="Young couple in kitchen looking at household bills"> The impacts of high rents and mortgage debt on people’s behaviour have significant consequences for the economy. <a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-caucasian-family-having-debt-problems-550887700" target="_blank">Shutterstock</a>
<h2>Setting a new agenda</h2>
With all this in mind, <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/research/projects/extending-economic-cases-housing-policies-rents-ownership-and-assets/" target="_blank">our report</a> lays out a wide-ranging “housing and productivity” research agenda. The hope must be that the resulting evidence helps trigger the policy reboot needed to transform the housing system from being part of the problem to part of the solution.
Much more attention needs to be focused on how owners and renters adjust savings and spending as a result of excessive housing costs. Without knowing about these behavioural responses, it is impossible to design appropriate policies.
We must find ways to restore the housing prospects of younger and/or less affluent households. We must research the potential for schemes to help first home buyers with deposits, and assess how better credit scoring methods could reduce pressures on rental markets. This is particularly important because currently used credit scoring methods disproportionately reward access to wealth, and do not adequately capture important aspects of prospective borrowers’ consumption and saving behaviour.
Delayed home ownership entry or permanent exclusion have major long-term implications. Worryingly, the negative impacts on economic productivity and stability have been largely ignored to date.
The Grattan Institute <a href="https://theconversation.com/retiree-home-ownership-is-about-to-plummet-soon-little-more-than-half-will-own-where-they-live-115255" target="_blank">estimates</a> home-ownership rates for the over-65s will fall by 19% by 2056. The impacts on retirement incomes will be significant.
Policymakers haven’t planned for the inevitable rise in need for social housing from impoverished older private renters. The present system has glaringly failed to provide housing affordable for <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/renters/private-renters.pdf" target="_blank">more than half of Australia’s low income tenant population</a>. Acting on the mounting economic imbalances caused by the housing crisis could, at the same time, generate a more productive and stable economy.
Australian housing research and policy urgently needs a new economic conversation.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145437/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hal-pawson-147969">Hal Pawson</a>, Professor of Housing Research and Policy, and Associate Director, City Futures Research Centre, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bill-randolph-147968" target="_blank">Bill Randolph</a>, Director, City Futures Research Centre, Faculty of the Built Environment, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-leishman-391783" target="_blank">Chris Leishman</a>, Professor of Housing Economics, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/duncan-maclennan-446466" target="_blank">Duncan Maclennan</a>, Professorial Research Fellow in Urban Economics, UNSW; Professor of Strategic Urban Management and Finance, University of St Andrews; Professor in Public Policy, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-glasgow-1269" target="_blank">University of Glasgow</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-covid-well-need-a-rethink-to-repair-australias-housing-system-and-the-economy-145437" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

After COVID, we'll need a rethink to repair Australia's housing system and the economy

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The National Cabinet will meet on Friday and top of the agenda will be plans to re-open the economy after a period of hibernation.
¾ Stimulus and support measures: Federal, state and territory governments and the Reserve Bank have outlined measures totalling over $340 billion or 17 per cent of GDP. The Addendum updates the previous list that was issued on April 20.
Government decisions on easing lockdown restrictions have implications for all sectors.
What does it all mean?
Australia has made good progress at stopping the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Now consideration turns to re-opening the economy. The health risks are easing but the economic risks are rising. So it is a case of finding some balance.
But just like when Microsoft Windows closes unexpectedly on your PC, the rebooting of the economy will be in ‘safe’ mode (COVIDSafe mode if you like). Open up too quickly and you risk repeating mistakes made in other countries that attempted to return to ‘normal’ too quickly.
National Cabinet will review the case for an easing of restrictions on Friday. National Cabinet has outlined conditions to be met before the economy can be rebooted.
The COVID-19 cases may lift again when the economy re-starts, but the aim is to keep the process manageable. Certainly the facilities and procedures are now in place to deal with any modest lift in cases.
The re-start timetable will vary across states and territories. The number of active cases is near zero in Northern Territory, ACT and South Australia. NSW, Victoria and Queensland have a bit further to go. But importantly there is no single road map to follow.
The cost of the virus crisis has been huge. Federal Treasury estimates it is costing the nation $4 billion a week. Treasury and the Reserve Bank tip a 10 per cent contraction of the economy in the first half of 2020. Output could slide 6 per cent in 2020 before lifting 6 per cent in 2021.
The impact on the job market is more worrisome. The jobless rate will peak near 10 per cent in coming months but will only fall to 7 per cent in just over 18 months’ time.
What businesses or industries return first?
Guidelines for COVIDsafe workplaces and activities are already available. And the information and guidelines will be expanded over time.
https://www.safeworkaustralia.gov.au/covid-19-information-workplaces
In the transition to lockdown, there were limits imposed on groups of more than 500 people, and then this was tightened to groups of 10 and then to groups of 2 (numbers varied across states and territories). In the re-start phase, there is likely to be a step back. Social distancing will remain a feature for an extended period. The 4 square metre per person guideline will likely be enforced.
Retailers that marketed goods considered ‘non-essential’ – covering areas like clothing, discount department stores, car dealers – have potential to re-open first. These may be stores that closed voluntarily or were mandated to close.
“White-collar” workers will also return to their offices in mid-to-late May with likely enforcement on staggered work hours and enforcement on social distancing.
A freeing up on travel within states and territories is also likely in the early reboot phase, benefitting regional areas, especially tourism-focussed businesses. Overseas travel (perhaps with the exception of New Zealand) will be amongst the last to re-start.
The Prime Minister has expressed a wish that cafes, restaurants and clubs can re-open relatively soon, no doubt with significant limits and guidelines. But re-opening is not expected until late May/June.
Note that the Northern Territory Government announced that “Stage two activities can commence from noon, Friday 15 May, and include indoor activities for less than two hours, such as:
- Shopping centre food courts.
- Restaurants, cafes, and bars for the consumption of food – excluding gaming areas.
- Organised outdoor training activities for sport teams without physical contact.
- Beauty therapy salons for non-facial services such as nails, massage and tanning.
- Gymnasium.
- Public libraries.
- Places used for religious worship – including indoor weddings and funerals.”
NSW, Victoria and Queensland make take longer to re-open these businesses, given their relatively large population sizes.
Many parts of construction, mining and manufacturing have continued to operate over the past six weeks. But greater ‘normality’ will return over May. In particular, fast tracking of infrastructure projects will be important for each of those industries in the recovery phase.
What has each state and economy announced so far? NSW
On April 28, the Premier announced the following: “From Friday, 1 May up to two adults and their dependent children will be allowed to visit another household.
We will see a return of face-to-face teaching from 11 May, and then will consider accelerating a full return to school as soon as possible.
There have never been restrictions in NSW on what people can and cannot buy, however there may be increased retail activity, with some businesses choosing to re-open. It is important these shops maintain social distancing and hygiene requirements.”
The full list of the current rules is here: https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/what-you-can-and-cant-do-under-rules
On May 3, the Treasurer said agents and vendors able to hold traditional property inspections and on-site auctions from May 9.
Victoria
On May 1, Premier Daniel Andrews said:
“The more tests we can get done in the lead-up to 11 May, the more options we will have to potentially ease some of the rules,” he said.
“If we are going to change those settings, then we need to be really clear on how much virus is out there in the Victorian community that we didn’t previously know about.”
Mr Andrews is aiming to complete 100,000 COVID-19 tests before May 11 to allow an easing of restrictions. 
Queensland
On April 26 Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk announced:
“From 11.59pm Friday, May 1, Queenslanders will be able to leave their homes for recreation and the distance they can travel has been extended.
For example, Queenslanders will be able to enjoy some relief from stay-at-home rules and:
On May 1 Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk cleared the way for the NRL season to resume on May 28th, dependent on Chief Health Officer advice that the league’s plan is workable, and the NRL’s assurance that players won’t break restrictions. The Premier said the decision gives clubs permission to travel across the Queensland border to play because they are working and because they are in quarantine. The Premier also said work was being done on other issues such as dining out.
On May 4, the Premier announced plans for schools
- May 11: Kindy, Prep, Years 1, 11 and 12 return to learning at school
-  May 15: Assess state-wide response to easing of restrictions
-  May 25: Proposed re-opening to remaining students in remaining grades
On May 5 the Premier issued a media release noting that “Planning continues for the resumption of hospitality and tourism business activity.”
South Australia
On April 27 schools opened for Term 2 on the advice of the Chief Medical Officer.
On May 3 Premier Steven Marshall announced:
“To guide the delicate process of both continuing to move out of the COVID-19 health emergency and restore the social and economic health of the State, the Marshall Government has established a broad high-level transition team.
While maintaining the vigilance of our public health response, the highly credentialed Transition Committee will look at which restrictions should be eased and in what order, as we take the next steps to return the State’s economy and community way of life to the new normal.”
Western Australia
On April 26 Premier Mark McGowan and Health Minister Roger Cook announced an easing of restrictions:
- “Indoor and outdoor gatherings for up to 10 people will be allowed including weddings, outdoor personal training, and open house or display village inspections
- Easing of some of WA's stage 3 restrictions effective Monday, April 27 2020
- Allows families and friends to interact more freely, with good social distancing
- Schools opened for Term 2 on the advice of the Chief Medical Officer.”
“The changes, based on health advice, will mean indoor and outdoor non-work gatherings will be relaxed to enable for up to 10 persons, lifted from the two person only limit, following continued low number of new cases and the encouraging response to COVID-19 in WA.” “The new 10-person rule aligns WA with South Australia.”
Tasmania
On May 1, Premier Peter Gutwein announced Additional North West COVID-19 measures to be lifted: “I am pleased to announce that the additional North West COVID-19 safety measures will be lifted from 12.00am this Monday, 4th May.”
The Premier said at the same time “The Government will make decisions about statewide restrictions in the lead up to 15th May.”
ACT
On May 1 Chief Minister Andrew Barr announced:
“…reasons for Canberrans to be outside their family home will be broadened from this weekend, allowing Canberrans to leave their home for non-essential shopping purposes.
This measure will support retail stores as they re-open (whilst maintaining appropriate physical distancing inside their stores). Many retailers voluntarily closed their doors to support community efforts to suppress the virus. Soon many will re-open and the community is encouraged to support them whilst maintaining physical distancing.
Restrictions on gatherings inside the family home will be relaxed to allow families to visit each other with two adults plus children able to visit outside of those who ordinarily live in a property.
With travel restrictions eased in NSW, Canberrans should only travel outside of the Canberra region to visit family and friends in small groups while maintaining physical distancing. As much as possible, travel outside of the Canberra region should be carefully considered, as someone bringing the virus into the Territory from interstate remains one of the biggest threats to the ACT.”
On schools, the Chief Minister said “we are preparing to move to face-to-face delivery during Term 2 if the circumstances allow us to do that sensibly.”
Northern Territory
On April 27 Chief Minister Michael Gunner announced:
The Northern Territory Government will begin re-opening some parks from Noon on Friday 1 May.
The Chief Minister outlined a transition to a “new normal”:
This transition has three parts:
- Controlling the borders: to keep the Territory safe and to stop coronavirus from spreading, our borders will stay secured.
- Rapid response: a “test, trace and trap” plan to contain any future outbreak, minimising the risk to the community.
- The new normal: Territorians enjoying their lives while also adhering to social distancing, cleaning and hygiene protocols.”
On April 30 the Chief Minister outlined “The Territory’s Roadmap to the New Normal” (http://newsroom.nt.gov.au/mediaRelease/33205)
From 1 May, Stage One adjustments will commence. Stage two activities can commence from noon, Friday 15 May. And from noon, Friday 5 June, restrictions will be eased on further indoor activities. By 5 June all Territory businesses, services, facilities and organisations should have their own COVID-19 Safety Plan.
On May 5 Chief Minister Michael Gunner announced:
“The COVID-19 safety plan checklist for businesses and organisations as part of the Roadmap to the New Normal is now available.
Businesses and organisations seeking to re-open or expand operations as part of stage two of the Roadmap can begin submitting their checklist from today, ahead of opening on 15th May.”
What are the implications for investors?
The focus now shifts from containment and suppression of the virus to rebooting the economy. The process will understandably be long and staggered. The process may differ across states and territories. The process is not without risks. But the price of delaying the reboot too long is getting higher.
Governments now have the processes and infrastructure in place to deal with any lift in the number of virus cases. Businesses may need information on what constitutes a new acceleration phase for cases, so they can stay on top. A reacceleration of cases could prompt a reimposition of lockdown measures or a tightening of rules and regulations.
Investors will need to particularly stay on top of daily information of virus news to gauge implications for companies, sectors and the broader market.
CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Rebooting the economy, state by state: CommSec's Craig James

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EXPERT OBSERVER
After tentative improvements earlier in the year, Australia’s housing markets are now showing a much clearer stabilisation.
Our <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/39942" target="_blank">August Housing Pulse</a> highlights a strong lift in buyer sentiment that should see a material pick up in sales heading into year end with the Westpac Housing Consumer Sentiment Index giving the most positive signal in over five years. That said, a sustained lift in demand has yet to be confirmed and there are several important caveats including significant variations in conditions across different states. Here we provide a quick ‘flyover’ summary of how the main markets are faring.
<div>
NSW: sparking back into life – Sydney’s price correction has now clearly ended with a marked improvement in auction markets, listings on a much firmer footing and sentiment pointing to a likely lift in demand heading into year end. Sydney dwelling prices rose 1.3% over the 3mths to Aug, the first gain since mid–2017 although prices are still 14% below their peak.
Victoria: conditions firm, confidence returns – the state’s price correction has also ended with a markedly improved tone to conditions and a significant lift in housing-related sentiment. Melbourne continues to show a more varied performance across segments and sub–regions with more pronounced corrections across higher-priced tiers. The turnaround over the last few months has been particularly striking for Melbourne’s Inner East.
Queensland: out of step and out of sorts – the improvement evident elsewhere has been much less convincing in the state. Prices in Brisbane look to have stabilised after a slip lower earlier in the year but buyer sentiment has shown only a marginal improvement and market conditions remain soft. Affordability is in relatively good shape but the market is still clearly lacking a spark.
South Australia: slipping despite positives – Adelaide has seen a modest price correction since the start of the year despite having been largely bypassed by the preceding boom and ‘fundamentals’ that are mostly benign or supportive. Turnover has also tended to drift lower, the mix suggesting weakness may relate to tightening lending conditions.
Western Australia: hope returns but stability elusive – the state continues to struggle with pervasive price weakness. Buyer sentiment has improved, signalling some hope going forward, but with prices down 8.7%yr, the Perth market has yet to find a base.
Tasmania: pressures rebuilding? – after calming down in 2019 following a vigorous two year boom there are signs that pressures in Tasmania’s housing markets may be starting to build quickly again. Prices have been essentially flat amid a sharp pull-back in turnover but conditions look likely to stabilise following a lift in sentiment. The state’s housing market remains very tight with a mix that suggests any lift in demand could be quick to stoke price pressures again.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/Housing_Pulse/Housing_Pulse_Bites/2019-08/Housing-pulse-bites-2019-08-01.jpg" alt="">
See the <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/August/WestpacHousingPulseAugust2019.pdf" target="_blank">full report</a> for a complete rundown.
Matthew Hassan, Senior Economist, Westpac
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Matthew_Hassan-HHWHptmrw4

A state by state housing sentiment rundown: Matthew Hassan

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In 2017/18, real economic output grew by 2.8% nationally, accelerating from 2.3% in 2016/17, according to the latest State by State Growth Report from Westpac.
The NSW economy performed over the past four years with output growth averaging an above trend 3.1% - the strongest four year performance for the state since the late 1990s.
The report found: "output growth was 2.8% in 2014/15, surging to 4.0% in 2015/16 and then moderating to 3.1% in 2016/17 and 2.6% in 2017/18 particularly as housing has become less supportive."
By industry, agriculture, real estate and professional services led the growth moderation in 2017/18.
Construction added a 0.4ppts to growth with broad strength as investment responded to the growing needs of a rising population.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/22/WESTPAC%20NSW.JPG" alt="">
The Victorian economy has been performing strongly, in particular, driven by a population boom.
Output growth was 3.5% in 2017/18, matching the average for the past four years but down from on last year.
Andrew Hanlan, the report author, noted: "State demand grew to 4.7% in 2017/18, up from 4.2%, the fastest pace in a decade.
"On a per capita basis, output grew by 1.2% in 2017/18, in line with the national average.
"Construction remained a key growth driver."
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/22/WESTPAC%20NSW%202.JPG" alt="">
In Western Australia output bounced back from a 1.8% decline this year to grow by 1.9% this year.
The construction sector added 0.2ppts to activity in 2017/18, a turnaround from a 2.6ppts drag in 2016/17.
Mining output was a key growth driver, adding 0.8ppts, with new capacity coming on stream, according to the report.
"Consumer related sectors were subdued, significantly underperforming gains across the rest of the country as household incomes remained under pressure," Hanlan said.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/22/WESTPAC%20NSW%204.JPG" alt="">
The Queensland economy grew 3.4%, the strongest levels since 2011/12.
Construction added 0.4ppts to activity, a turnaround from a -0.1ppts impact in 2016/17 and from the sharp negatives in 2014/15 and 2015/16.
"srowth was broadly based across a range of business sectors, indicative of an improvement in underlying conditions," Hanlan said. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/22/WESTPAC%20NSW%203.JPG" alt="">
The South Australian economy expanded by 2.0%, slightly reduced on last year's 2.4% but in line with the long term average.
This is an improvement on the previous six years, when growth averaged just 0.9%.
Andrew Hanlan found: "the health sector added an exceptional 0.8ppts to activity, well above the national average (0.4ppts) boosted by the progressive roll-out of the National Disability Insurance Scheme.
"Construction advanced, +0.3ppts, after three years of modest negatives, with home building and business investment expanding," he added.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/22/WESTPAC%20NSW%205.JPG" alt="">
The 2017/18 year was a standout for Tasmania, with output growth of 3.3%, a doubling of the 1.5% rise in 2016/17 and the strongest post GFC result in a decade.
"Per capita output growth of 2.3% in 2017/18 was the envy of all other states," stated Hanlan.
"State final demand grew by 4.1% in the year, with broad based strength across the consumer, housing, business investment and public demand."
The health sector was a key growth driver, +0.7ppts.
Of the 19 broad industries, none were a drag on activity in 2017/18 - a relatively rare outcome, Hanlan said.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

How each state economy is performing: Westpac

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The NSW economy has continued to outperform the rest of Australia by a wide margin, but the state’s economic strength is placing pressure on housing affordability, said Westpac’s Red Book January 2017 report.
The state recorded 3.5 percent growth for the 2015/16 financial year, the strongest result since the pre-Olympic boom in 1999/2000.
The more recent performance has been more mixed with state demand stalling in Q3 and consumers reining in spending growth in line with slow incomes.
The consumer mood has also been toned down a little but remains more upbeat than the rest of Australia.
At 102.8 the average NSW sentiment index read over the last 3 months is not particularly strong but is comfortably above the 98.5 reading for the rest of Australia.
The biggest wedge is around views on the economy which remain less pessimistic in NSW (i.e. above the rest of Australia but still sub-100).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/03/wes-6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/03/wes-6.jpg" alt="">
Unemployment expectations are also materially better in NSW – the only state recording responses below its long run average.
The picture is less constructive around housing. Deteriorating affordability continues to weigh on assessments of ‘time to buy a dwelling’, the state index still 18 points below the rest of Australia and firmly in negative territory.
Notably, NSW consumers also appear to be becoming warier of risk, the state risk aversion index converging with the national measure in December.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

NSW's economic strength straining housing affordability: Westpac

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New South Wales has the best performing economy nationwide according to the State of States July 2016 report from CommSec Research.
The report, which compares indicators against decade averages, found both NSW and Victoria, which came in second, are keeping a lead of other states and territories.
The ACT economy improved over the quarter and held onto third spot - it is top ranked on housing finance and third ranked on economic growth, unemployment and population growth. 
The report said while the Northern Territory economy has held onto fourth place, there is now little separating South Australia in fifth (previously seventh) from the ‘top end’ economy.
<a href="/images/2016/07/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-25%20at%2011.02.51%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/07/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-25%20at%2011.02.51%20AM.png" alt="">
"The Queensland economy has moved down one rung from fifth to sixth," it said.
"NSW has retained its top rankings on population growth, equipment investment, retail trade, and dwelling starts and added economic growth. But NSW drifted to second spot on unemployment. NSW improved to third ranked on construction work and drifted to third on housing finance (previously second).
"Victoria is ranked second on a number of indicators (economic growth, population growth, retail trade, business investment, construction work and housing finance). Victoria has moved from second ranked to fourth ranked on unemployment.
"The Northern Territory is losing momentum, and as key resource projects are completed, activity levels will slow further unless a lift in investment takes place. Slow population growth, weak demand for housing loans and a sharp fall in equipment investment will constrain economic momentum.
"The South Australian job market has improved in the past year and in particular the past quarter. If the positive trend continues, then there is scope for an improvement in retail spending.
"Queensland has slipped down the rankings to just above Western Australia, and Tasmania. Encouragingly, the lower Australian dollar will support agricultural exports and more importantly the tourism sector in coming months.
"Western Australia continues to slip in the performance rankings, having moved from top spot (July 2014) to seventh in two years. Slower population growth and higher unemployment will constrain activity in the housing market."
<a href="/images/2016/07/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-25%20at%2011.14.52%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/07/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-25%20at%2011.14.52%20AM.png" alt="">
The report also noted in ACT, Victoria, NSW, South Australia and Queensland trend housing finance commitments are above decade averages. 
 
 
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