Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.

While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.

A new Colliers report, Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.

The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.

Construction Skills Queensland's Horizon 2032 report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.

The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]

Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.

"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.

"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."

Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.

"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]

Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.

Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.

The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.

Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.

"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.

"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."

Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Joel Robinson

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.

&nbsp;

Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]

Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.

"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.

"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.

"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]

Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.

Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]

Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.

"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.

"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."

Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]

Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.

The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]

Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.

"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.

"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]

La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.

Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.

The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.

Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.

"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.

Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

Brisbane developer Red &amp; Co's decision to include dual key apartments in its debut Gold Coast apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO Varsity Lakes</a>, is proving to be one of the project's biggest drawcards, with buyers quickly snapping up the flexible residences.

More than half of the project's 36 dual key apartments have already sold, helping drive COMO beyond the 50 per cent sold mark within the first month of launch.

The strong response highlights growing demand for apartment designs that can adapt to changing lifestyles, with buyers increasingly looking for homes that accommodate multi-generational living, provide rental income opportunities or simply offer greater flexibility over time.

Located on the shores of Lake Orr, COMO will deliver 156 apartments across 16 levels, with the dual-key residences forming a limited release within the broader development.

Each combines a primary two-bedroom apartment with a fully self-contained studio on a single title, connected by a shared foyer and lockable internal door. The design allows owners to house ageing parents, adult children or guests while maintaining privacy, or lease the secondary residence to generate additional income.

Just 17 of the original 36 dual key apartments remain available.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=367096]

The innovative configuration combines two fully self-contained residences on a single title, typically comprising a primary two-bedroom apartment alongside a separate studio residence, connected via a shared foyer and lockable internal door.&nbsp;

The model is proving particularly attractive to owner occupiers navigating changing family dynamics and the realities of the current housing crisis.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363511]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/npa">NPA</a>&nbsp;CEO Andrew Erwin said dual key living was resonating strongly with modern buyers because it delivered both financial flexibility and practical lifestyle benefits.&nbsp;

“The housing crisis and rising cost of living are fundamentally changing how Australians think about home ownership,” Erwin said.&nbsp;

“Dual key apartments provide a genuine solution for families who want to stay connected while maintaining independence. Parents can help adult children save for a future home, ageing parents can remain nearby without moving into aged care, and owners still retain privacy and flexibility.

“Importantly, buyers are also recognising the financial advantages. It creates the opportunity to generate additional income from part of the home without the holding costs associated with owning a separate investment property.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363509]

Unlike traditional dual occupancy arrangements, the residences operate under a single title, meaning owners only incur one set of body corporate fees, council rates and holding costs.&nbsp;

The secondary residence can also evolve over time - functioning as guest accommodation, a home office, creative studio or private retreat before later becoming an income-producing asset.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co</a>&nbsp;Director and Co-Founder David Laverty said the strong early sales reflected growing buyer urgency and changing priorities within the market.&nbsp;

“Securing more than half of COMO’s residences within such a short timeframe is an outstanding result and a clear endorsement of both the design and location,” Laverty said.&nbsp;

“Buyers are responding to the combination of location, connectivity and amenity, but ultimately it’s value relative to other East Coast markets that is driving enquiry.”&nbsp;

“We’re also seeing strong interest from owner occupiers looking for homes that can adapt with them over time. Flexibility has become one of the most important considerations for buyers in today’s market.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363515]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, COMO features a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom residences with 2.7-metre ceilings and larger-format floorplans aimed at owner occupiers, downsizers and lifestyle-focused buyers.&nbsp;

The development will feature an extensive rooftop recreation and wellness offering including a 25-metre lap pool, sundeck, barbecue and dining areas, gym, sauna, plunge baths, landscaped gardens, wellness spaces and rooftop pickleball and paddleball courts.

The remaining dual key apartments range from 137 sqm to 167 sqm and include generous three-bedroom layouts with separate self-contained studio accommodation and dual parking.&nbsp;

Erwin said the dual key concept represented a broader shift in how Australians would live in the future.

“People want homes that can evolve with their lives,” he said.&nbsp;

“A dual key apartment can suit a family today, support an ageing parent tomorrow, and potentially generate income later on. That adaptability is becoming incredibly valuable in the current environment.”

Prices currently range from $2,115,750 to $2,583,000.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135546]

Inter-generational living drives demand for COMO’s dual key apartments as housing pressures reshape buyer priorities 

Builder-developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ceerose">Ceerose</a> has doubled down on its Leichhardt ambitions, lodging its second State Significant Development Application (SSDA) in the suburb in the last six months.

Their newest proposal seeks to transform a former industrial precinct into a new residential community centred around the adaptive reuse of one of the site's heritage warehouse buildings.

The new project, on a 6,930 sqm block at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-76-william-street-leichhardt-nsw-2040">40–76 William Street</a>, will bring more than 200 apartments to a suburb that has seen little to no new supply in recent years. It follows Ceerose's late 2025 SSDA for a mixed-use apartment project on nearby Parramatta Road, signalling the developer's growing investment in Sydney's Inner West.

Ceerose Founder Edward Doueihi told Apartments.com.au the developer’s long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West had given it a strong understanding of how the area has evolved and where its future opportunities lie.

“Ceerose has had a long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West, giving us a unique understanding of the area’s evolution and future potential,” Doueihi said.

“Having delivered projects throughout the region, we have witnessed the suburb’s transformation first-hand and understand the opportunities for its continued growth.”

Doueihi said that understanding also informed the planning process, with a comprehensive Stakeholder Engagement Outcomes Report prepared before the application was lodged.

The report identified the key issues and concerns raised by neighbouring residents and other stakeholders, allowing those matters to be considered and incorporated into the design where appropriate.

He said the delivery of additional housing would also play an important role in supporting the revitalisation of Norton Street and the Italian Forum.

“By increasing the local residential population, the development is expected to strengthen demand for local businesses, encourage further investment, and help restore the vibrancy that made the precinct a thriving destination in the early 2000s.”

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7258c54c-8167-479e-8361-2d5fca9915b4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010B%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%202.jpg?VersionId=S9DQfxu_jpcB5LrAEYFUbyMzg5odW6i5" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the redevelopment would involve the demolition of four existing industrial buildings while retaining and adaptively reusing the site's most significant warehouse. The retained structure would anchor a new residential precinct comprising five interconnected buildings arranged around a large central landscaped courtyard, with heights stepping from five storeys along the surrounding residential streets to 11 storeys at the William Street corner.

According to the Architecture Design Report by Woods Bagot, the proposal "seeks to create a residential village centred around a generous green heart while celebrating the site's industrial heritage through the adaptive reuse of the existing warehouse building."

The development would comprise 203 apartments, with 188 proposed as build-to-sell residences, alongside 15 affordable housing apartments.

Rather than treating the retained warehouse as a standalone heritage object, Woods Bagot has sought to weave the site's industrial history throughout the masterplan. The proposal retains the north and west facades of the landmark corner warehouse, while new buildings reinterpret the site's brick-and-steel industrial language through their material palette and architectural expression.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9e8c64c2-881b-49e1-8c90-6b6acaaa45b6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010C%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%203.jpg?VersionId=Qm8_8H_Xrg_sc4Mdjc59vlAcKF_5wRTb" />

The design is organised around what Woods Bagot describes as a "green heart", a landscaped communal open space that reinstates the leafy character removed when the site became an industrial storage facility. A new pedestrian laneway running through the site would improve permeability between William, North and Francis streets, linking residents through landscaped public spaces while activating the ground plane.

Residents would have access to communal gardens and shared recreation areas distributed throughout the development. Sustainability has also been prioritised, with the project targeting an average 7.9-star NatHERS rating. Proposed initiatives include rooftop solar generation, rainwater harvesting, passive solar design, naturally ventilated lobbies, extensive cross-ventilation and the reuse of existing building fabric to reduce embodied carbon.

The adaptive reuse strategy became a defining feature of the application after heritage investigations found only one of the site's industrial buildings could feasibly be retained. The Heritage Impact Statement concludes that preserving the key warehouse façades while referencing the site's industrial character throughout the new development provides an appropriate balance between renewal and conservation.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="efffafdb-594f-4e2b-a067-921fd51c05e1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010D%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%204.jpg?VersionId=DPmE4.k16YRt0i27hEZVtJAffarpvUfx" />

"Retention and adaptation of the site buildings has been explored but found not to be feasible except for the tallest building, whose street facades will be retained," the heritage report states.

"The proposed building will interpret the brick and steel character of the subject site, including reuse of some components and construction of a large 'sawtooth' structure in the proposed open space."

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3bfef2b5-83f5-40cd-9cab-767092f34266" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010E%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%205.jpg?VersionId=7asb3i_ql4ybbuJOUb5UHBEIy0Q9t.DF" />

The William Street site is located around 300 metres from Leichhardt North Light Rail station and a short walk to Norton Street's retail, dining and hospitality precinct. The surrounding area has increasingly become a focus for urban renewal given its proximity to public transport and the Parramatta Road corridor.

Doueihi founded Ceerose in 1998 and has grown the business to become one of Sydney's more active apartment developers in recent years, with completed projects including The Alex Collective in Alexandria, Abbie's Lane in Annandale, and the award-winning Munro House in Elizabeth Bay. They are currently delivering Belgravia, 17 luxury apartments in Potts Point.

First look: Ceerose doubles down in Leichhardt with adaptive reuse of former warehouse site

Shadow Board

<html><body>
Donald Trump’s assumption of the US presidency since the last RBA Shadow Board round two months ago raises important questions about the future health of the global economy.
Domestically, consumer prices rose a little faster, by 1.5% year-on-year in the December 2016 quarter, but still well below the RBA’s 2-3% target band.
The CAMA RBA Shadow Board’s conviction that the cash rate should remain at its current level is stronger than two months ago, reflecting the heightened uncertainty surrounding the Trump presidency.
The Shadow Board attaches a 70% probability to a rate hold being the appropriate policy setting.
The confidence attached to a required rate cut equals 5%, while the confidence in a required rate hike equals 25%.
There is little inflationary pressure emanating from the Australian labour market, with Australia’s official unemployment rate now standing at 5.8%.
Since the participation rate has remained steady, the modest increase in unemployment is primarily due to a smaller increase in the creation of new jobs.
There is no new data on wages growth.
The Aussie dollar, relative to the US dollar, has strengthened again, finding support above 75 US¢.
Yields on Australian 10-year government bonds have slipped to 2.77%, once again nearing their historical low.
Domestic share prices have retreated from their highs in early January, the S&amp;P/ASX 200 stock market index now consolidating between 5,600 and 5,700.
The main global threat remains the uncertainty surrounding the Trump Presidency.
On the one hand, Trump’s promise to drastically increase infrastructure and defence spending, coupled with tax cuts, will exert upward pressure on US, and hence world, interest rates.
On the other hand, Trump’s protectionist and nationalist policies will dampen international trade and generate political uncertainty.
This could further increase global interest rates if risk premia were to rise considerably, or lower interest rates if global demand falls.
Making accurate predictions in such an environment is extremely ambitious; but the heightened uncertainty is damaging to financial markets and the overall economic outlook.
Consumer confidence, as measured by the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index, has fallen slightly during the past two months.
It now stands at 97.4 (down from 101.3 two months ago).
The manufacturing and services PMI, which measure the performances of the manufacturing and services sectors, continue to bounce around without clear direction.
It is now equaling 51.2 (down from 54.2 two months ago) and 54.5 (up from 50.5), respectively.
The AIG Performance of Construction Index (PCI), after its recent blip up, fell again, edged up for the second month in a row, from 45.9 in October to 47 in December.
Building permits declined again in December, by 1.2%, though November saw an interruption in this trend, with an increase of 7.5%.
The Shadow Board’s preference for the optimal interest rate has strengthened.
It now attaches a 70% probability (56% in December) that “no change” is the appropriate policy, a 5% probability (2% in December) that a rate cut is appropriate and a 25% probability (43% in December) that a rate rise, to 1.75% or higher, is appropriate.
The probabilities at longer horizons are as follows: 6 months out, the estimated probability that the cash rate should remain at 1.50% equals 24%, three percentage points up from the previous round.
The estimated need for an interest rate decrease remains unchanged at 9%, while the need for a rate increase equals 67% (71% in December).
A year out, the Shadow Board members’ confidence that the cash rate should be held steady equals 17% (unchanged from December), while the confidence in a required cash rate decrease (7%) and in a required cash rate increase (77%) are also virtually unchanged.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-07%20at%2011.37.05%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-07%20at%2011.37.05%20am.jpg" alt="">
For more information, <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/" target="_blank">click here</a>
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

February rates are on hold as uncertainty about Trump continues: RBA Shadow Board

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
After the RBA’s decision in August to cut the cash rate to a historic low of 1.5 percent, there is good reason to pause.
Unemployment fell slightly, but only because of a large increase in part-time employment. With consumer price inflation equalling 1.0 percent year-on-year, well below the RBA’s 2-3 percent target band, and wage growth a modest 2.1 percent year-on-year, there exist little immediate inflationary pressures.
The CAMA RBA Shadow Board clearly believes that the cash rate should not be cut any further. The Shadow Board attaches a 57 percent probability to a rate hold being the appropriate policy setting. The confidence attached to a required rate cut equals a mere 5 percent, while the confidence in a required rate hike equals 38 percent.
Australia’s unemployment rate fell ever so slightly, to 5.7 percent, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, as did the participation rate, which stands at 64.88 percent. June’s (revised) increase in full time employment of 44,000, was completely reversed in July.
Furthermore, part-time employment, after falling by 33,200 in June, increased by a whopping 71,590 in July. The overall increase in part-time employment, relative to full-time employment, may be cause for concern. While it may reflect a flexible, nimble labour market, it could also be a sign that the labour market is softening, capturing a degree of underemployment. The seasonally adjusted wage price index increased by 2.1 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2016, unchanged from the previous quarter.
For the last month the Aussie dollar, relative to the US dollar, has been range-bound, trading between 75 US¢ and 77 US¢. Yields on Australian 10-year government bonds rarely budged, remaining at their historic lows below 2 percent.
Domestic share prices peaked on 1 August and have retreated slightly since then. Worldwide, after the three-week rally in July, most stocks have been going sideways, confirming the old adage that August is a slow month for the share market.
Absent any major surprises in the world economy, prospects for economic growth in the major economic regions continue to be modest. Jobs growth in the US has been solid in June (292,000) and July (255,000), but predictions for the August statistic, to be announced on 2 September, are smaller. US investment numbers continue to be relatively weak and these are unlikely to improve significantly prior to the US election in November.
Brazil’s economic fortunes, after the recent deposition of its President, Dilma Rousseff, remain highly uncertain. Germany’s fiscal surplus of 1.2 percent of GDP for the first half of 2016 is not matched by the periphery’s economies. The imbalances between Germany and its Eurozone partners will generate further pressure for Germany to increase spending and provide stimulus for the region.
Consumer confidence, as measured by the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index, rose slightly. The manufacturing PMI, which measures the performance of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of 200 industrial companies, fell dramatically last month, from 56.40 to 46.90, the lowest reading since June 2015. Numbers for this month’s Services PMI have yet to be released. Capacity utilization remains just above 81 percent; after a big gain in June, the AIG Construction Performance Index receded slightly, from 53.2 to 51.6 in July.
The Shadow Board attaches a 57 percent probability (54 percent last month) that “no change” is the appropriate policy, a 5 percent probability (28 v last month) that a rate cut is appropriate and a 38 percent probability (18 percent in the previous month) that a rate rise, to 1.75 percent or higher, is appropriate. The substantial increase in the confidence attached to a rate rise (and the corresponding fall in the probability confidence attached to a rate cut) reflect the Shadow Board’s mild disagreement with the RBA’s decision to cut the cash rate in August.
The probabilities at longer horizons are as follows: 6 months out, the estimated probability that the cash rate should remain at 1.50 percent is virtually unchanged at 24 percent, one percentage point up from the previous month. The estimated need for an interest rate decrease equals 11 percent (29 percent in August), while the need for a rate increase equals 65 percent (48 percent in August).
A year out, the Shadow Board members’ confidence that the cash rate should be held steady equals 18 percent (16 percent in August), while the confidence in a required cash rate decrease equals 10 percent (26 percent in August) and in a required cash rate increase 72 percent (58 percent in August).
<a href="/images/2016/09/06/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%2010.31.20%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/06/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%2010.31.20%20AM.png" alt="">
For more information, <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/rba-shadow-board" target="_blank">click here</a>.
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

No need for rates to go lower after last month’s cut: RBA Shadow Board

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GUEST OBSERVER
After the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cut the cash rate to 1.75 percent in May due to unusually weak inflation, recent figures show GDP growth, in the March quarter, rose to 1.1 percent, higher than expected.
The unemployment rate remained steady at 5.7 percent, while the global economy continues to paint a motley picture. Relative to last month, the CAMA RBA Shadow Board’s policy preferences have become more hawkish; however, this reflects last month’s divergence between its preferred interest rate setting and the RBA’s actual decision. The Shadow Board attaches a 52 percent probability to a rate hold being the appropriate policy setting. The confidence attached to a required rate cut equals 11 percent, while the confidence in a required rate rise equals 37 percent.
Australia’s unemployment rate stood firm at 5.7 percent. The participation rate remained virtually steady at 64.8 percent. Nominal wage growth at 2.1 percent year-on-year is the lowest it has been in 18 years, reflecting slackness in the labour market and a replacement of high-wage jobs in the mining industry with lower paying jobs elsewhere in the economy.
Last month’s rate cut pushed the Aussie dollar four cents lower, relative to the US dollar; it is trading between 72 US¢ and 73 US¢. For the same reason yields on Australian 10-year government bonds have fallen to under 2.3 percent.
Domestic share prices rose to new highs. The S&amp;P/ASX200 last week closed above 5400, the highest since August 2015. Global stocks markets have been similarly buoyant.
Australian GDP growth was unexpectedly high in the first quarter of 2016, clocking in at 1.1 percent, compared to 0.7 percent in the previous quarter. At this rate, annual GDP growth for the 201⅚ fiscal year will equal around a healthy 3 percent.
The US economy is continuing to grow near potential but the most recent unemployment figures disappointed. Other countries are faring less well. Russia is hoping its economy will start growing again later this year while Brazil just announced its economy contracted by 5.4%, year-on-year, in the first quarter. China’s growth rate is expected to be between 6 percent and 7 percent; recent announcements by the Chinese government of large-scale infrastructure projects are no doubt meant to breathe new life into the Chinese economy. Europe’s economies are expanding modestly, Japan is standing still and there remains uncertainty surrounding the resilience and strength of the world’s developing economies, especially those carrying large debt burdens.
Consumer confidence, as measured by the Westpac/Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index, leapt from 95 in April 2016 to 103 in May. Business confidence, according to the NAB business survey, fell slightly from 6 to 5 in April. The AIG manufacturing index fell slightly, but the services index, also a leading economic indicator, rose.
The Shadow Board’s confidence measures have shifted considerably. It attaches a 52 percent probability (63 percent last month) that “no change” is the appropriate policy, an 11 percent probability (29 percent last month) that a rate cut is appropriate and a 37 percent probability (8 percent in the previous month) that a rate rise, to 2.00 percent or higher, is appropriate.
It must be borne in mind, however, that the Shadow Board, in contrast to the RBA which lowered the cash rate last month, preferred to keep the cash rate on hold in May. Hence, the current probabilities overall reflect a more hawkish stance relative to the RBA.
The probabilities at longer horizons are as follows: 6 months out, the estimated probability that the cash rate should remain at 1.75 percent equals 24 percent (29 percent in May). The estimated need for an interest rate decrease has fallen from 29 percent to 16 percent, while the need for a rate increase has risen 18 percentage points to 60 percent. A year out, the Shadow Board members’ confidence that the cash rate should be held steady equals 14 percent (19 percent in May), while the confidence in a required cash rate decrease equals 16 percent (19 percent in May) and in a required cash rate increase 70 percent (61 percent in May).
<a href="/images/2016/06/07/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-07%20at%2010.28.31%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/07/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-07%20at%2010.28.31%20AM.png" alt="">
For more information, <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/rba-shadow-board" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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The nadir of the interest rate cycle is probably reached: RBA Shadow Board

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GUEST OBSERVER
Former Bank of England Governor Sir Mervyn King famously wrote that, “a successful central bank should be boring”.
The recent consensus in monetary policy, given the absence of major news about the Australian and overseas economies to inform policy makers, appears to be just that.
The unemployment rate, according to the latest ABS figures, fell to 5.8 percent, and inflation, at 1.7 percent, remains below the RBA’s target band of 2-3 percent. 
Economic growth came in at an annual 3.0 percent at the end of 2015, fuelled by stronger household spending and government expenditure, while investment declined by 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter, subtracting from GDP growth. Yet real domestic income increased by only 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, reflecting a decrease in Australia’s terms of trade.
Overall, the outlook for the Australian economy looks much the same as the previous month. The CAMA RBA Shadow Board’s policy preferences remain virtually unchanged from last month. It continues to have a strong preference for keeping the cash rate on hold, attaching a 69% probability to this being the appropriate policy setting. The confidence attached to a required rate cut equals 23%, while the confidence in a required rate hike only equals 8 percent.
The fall in Australia’s unemployment rate can be almost entirely attributed to a fall in the participation rate from 65.1 percent to 64.9 percent. There has been no new data on real wage growth, which remains worryingly subdued.
The weakening of the US dollar has seen the Aussie dollar rebound to above 77 US¢. The trade balance remains firmly in deficit, equalling $2.9 billion in January (down from $3.5 billion in December 2015). Yields on Australian 10-year government bonds have inched up to 2.53 percent. The yield curve thus remains relatively flat.
Global stocks have rebounded spectacularly since the rout at the beginning of this year, while commodity prices have also gained some ground. Conversely, volatility, as measured by the VIX volatility index, has been declining steadily since its peak in early February. The last month has brought little in the way of news about the health of the world economy. The US economy still looks to be the pacemaker, with Europe, Japan, the BRICS countries and other developing economies expanding only modestly. High indebtedness in many countries remains a concern, even at historically low interest rates.
The Shadow Board’s confidence measures are virtually unchanged from the previous month. It attaches a 69 percent probability that “no change” is the appropriate policy, a 23% probability that rate cut is appropriate and an 8% probability that a rate rise, to 2.25 percent or higher, is appropriate.
The probabilities at longer horizons are as follows: 6 months out, the estimated probability that the cash rate should remain at 2 percent remains at 30 percent. The estimated need for an interest rate decrease has risen to 25 percent (23 percent in March), while the need for a rate increase has fallen to 45 percent (47 percent in March). A year out, the Shadow Board members’ confidence that the cash rate should be held steady dropped three percentage points, from 22 percent to 19 percent, while the confidence in a required cash rate decrease equals 18 percent (16 percent in March) and in a required cash rate increase 62 percent (63 percent in March).
To access the comments made by the RBA Shadow board <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/outcome/attachments/2016-04/shadow_board_comments_april2016.pdf" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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