<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/broadbeach-qld-4218">Broadbeach</a> offers plenty of reasons to live vertically, but moving from a substantial family home into an apartment can expose the compromises of high-density living. Privacy, room for guests and usable living space tend to matter more when an apartment is intended as a permanent home rather than an occasional coastal base.</p>

<p>A typical residential floor at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-eveleigh-broadbeach-7-9-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Eveleigh</a>, on Surf Parade,&nbsp;contains just four apartments. The 94-residence development by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hirsch-faigen">Hirsch &amp; Faigen</a> is predominantly made up of expansive three-bedroom homes, with a limited collection of half-floor penthouses above.</p>

<p>Across the apartment floors, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> has used the relatively limited number of residences to give each home greater access to natural light and outlook. Living spaces extend towards full-height glazing, while a series of bay windows frame selected views across the Pacific Ocean, city and hinterland rather than treating the building edge as a continuous wall of glass.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360965]</p>

<p>“The apartment floors deliver a collection of homes that embrace controlled outlook via a series of bay windows deliberately framing moments of view,” Rothelowman Director Kim Lowman said.</p>

<p>From outside, those projecting forms contribute to the tower’s faceted profile. Strong horizontal and vertical elements establish its proportions, while the changing position of the sun alters the light, shadow and reflection across the façade throughout the day.</p>

<p>The same attention moves inside the apartments, where the material palette combines warm timber, natural stone, metallic detailing and softer curved forms. Kitchens sit within the main living zone, with stone island benches, integrated joinery and European appliances, before the living areas extend towards the glazing and the outlook.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360981]</p>

<p>Three genuine bedrooms provide room to accommodate family and guests, while two secure car spaces and storage address some of the practical considerations that can become more noticeable when moving from a larger home. Feedback from the display suite has centred on the warmth and restraint of the interiors, with buyers commenting that the residences feel like homes rather than conventional coastal apartments.</p>

<p>A limited collection of half-floor penthouses occupies the upper levels, increasing the scale of the living spaces and adding private balconies and elevated finishes. From this position, the outlook extends between the ocean and hinterland.</p>

<p>Outside the private residences, The Eveleigh separates its shared spaces between the podium and rooftop. The podium is centred on wellness, with subtropical landscaping surrounding a swimming pool and pool terrace, yoga garden, private gymnasium, sauna and hot and cold plunge facilities. Landscaped retreats and pavilions provide additional places to sit away from the main recreation areas.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360966]</p>

<p>Higher in the building, a rooftop pavilion and private dining suite sit alongside resident lounge, barbecue and outdoor dining areas, opening towards panoramic views across the ocean, city and hinterland.</p>

<p>“Buyers are no longer just looking for an apartment, but a lifestyle where they can relax, reset, and enjoy a balanced way of living,” Hirsch &amp; Faigen Director of Sales Matt George said.</p>

<p>Interest to date has come from established owner-occupiers and interstate lifestyle purchasers, including buyers planning a future move to the Gold Coast. Many are coming from larger homes and want to reduce ongoing maintenance without giving up space for family and guests, privacy, two car spaces or the ability to entertain at home.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360969]</p>

<p>Much of that daily life can also take place beyond the building without requiring a drive. Kurrawa Beach and Pratten Park are an easy walk from Surf Parade, while Pacific Fair, Oracle Boulevard, The Oasis, restaurants, cafés, entertainment and public transport are also within walking distance.</p>

<p data-end="8307" data-start="8063">The Eveleigh is Hirsch &amp; Faigen's fourth Gold Coast development since entering the market in 2021, following The Hemingway at Palm Beach, The Emerson at Kirra and Yves at Mermaid Beach. Each of the preceding projects sold out before completion.</p>

<p data-end="8543" data-start="8312">“Broadbeach had been on our radar throughout our time operating on the Gold Coast,” the developer said. “Following our projects in Palm Beach, Kirra and Mermaid Beach, Broadbeach represented the natural next step for the business.”</p>

<p data-end="8915" data-start="8548">The Surf Parade site brought together proximity to the beach, protected coastal outlooks and walkability to dining, shopping and recreation. Hirsch &amp; Faigen also identified the street as an emerging premium residential address, with enough separation from Broadbeach's busier destinations to retain a quieter environment at home.</p>

<p>The Eveleigh is now under construction by Maxcon, with completion forecast for mid-2028. Three-bedroom residences are currently available from $2.87 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149670]</p>


Joel Robinson

The Eveleigh brings house-like apartments to Broadbeach

<p>A long-stalled Campbelltown development site is back in play, with new plans for 139 apartments set to supersede a mixed-use scheme approved almost a decade ago but never built.</p>

<p>The new proposal for 28 Cordeaux Street would deliver 116 market and 23 affordable apartments in a part 14-storey building, bringing a substantial new project into a Campbelltown market where new apartment supply remains limited.</p>

<p>Plans have been filed over the 3,092 sqm corner site at Moore-Oxley Street, around 600 metres from Campbelltown Railway Station and the city-centre retail core.</p>

<p>The site already carries a mixed-use residential approval dating to 2016. Doroch Architects has now been engaged on a larger replacement scheme, which is progressing as a State Significant Development Application following a Housing Delivery Authority determination in August 2025.</p>

<p>The apartment mix comprises 39 one-bedroom, 72 two-bedroom and 28 three-bedroom residences. Two-bedroom apartments make up just over half of the project, while three-bedroom homes account for 20 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="136dd5b9-3791-4da6-9e31-76f533f5b4de" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da2.png?VersionId=LgOSy9nwf5u.MGswBBwaGGxuX8QpHSl_" /></p>

<p>Of the 139 apartments, 23 will be delivered as affordable housing under the in-fill affordable housing provisions of the Housing SEPP. The affordable component represents 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area and will be managed by a registered Community Housing Provider.</p>

<p>Doroch has sought to break the scale of the building into two distinct elements, with a masonry podium of around four storeys establishing the street edge before the residential tower steps back above.</p>

<p>The corner position has shaped that approach. Cordeaux Street faces toward the commercial and civic centre, while Moore-Oxley Street leads into the lower-scale residential neighbourhood to the south, and the design verification report describes the site as "bridging the commercial core to the north and established residential areas to the south."</p>

<p>The podium will be expressed predominantly in face brick, while the upper levels shift to brushed and grooved concrete cladding with darker metal detailing. Recessed sections, deep balcony edges and landscaping break down the upper form, with an approximately 11.8-metre setback to the northern boundary addressing the adjoining St Peters Anglican School.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c8b3d2d3-c561-4bfc-a5d9-a68c0c10dac1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da1.png?VersionId=AeAEyJU02Gk2k5noUj2StziCvdQ7fW4B" /></p>

<p>Campbelltown has been starved of new residential developments in the last decade.</p>

<p>The only other notable development set to come to market this year is ALAND's Queen Square, a mixed-use precinct on over two hectares that will comprise apartments above a vibrant ground-level retail and hospitality dining precinct.</p>


First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site

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<p>A 60-apartment building nine storeys tall would be a rarity almost anywhere along this stretch of Moreton Bay, but that's exactly what's been lodged for a modest Deception Bay street better known for its single-storey weatherboard homes.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherlock-construction-homes">Sherlock Construction Homes</a> is seeking to push Deception Bay’s emerging medium-density housing profile higher, lodging plans for a nine-storey apartment building near the suburb’s shopping centre and foreshore.</p>

<p>Dubbed Grosvenor Apartments, the proposal at 14-20 Grosvenor Terrace would replace two detached homes with a new building designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mode">Mode Design</a>&nbsp;which would&nbsp;reach nearly 30 metres, well above the site’s mapped 21-metre building height.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches 9-storey tower for low-rise Deception Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="86c21a25-5a97-4ca7-a361-80757137ea5b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Deception%20da%20front.png?VersionId=aXIujfvEhH33sLHOEjHFv9Ii6qxSvAF4" /></p>

<p>The apartment mix is weighted toward larger homes, with 14 three-bedroom apartments, 31 two-bedroom apartments and 15 one-bedroom apartments. Six apartment types are spread across the floors, ranging from 66 sqm one-bedroom units through to three-bedroom apartments of 116 sqm, most with private balconies or terraces.</p>

<p>Levels one through seven follow a consistent layout of six to eight apartments per floor arranged around a central lift and stair core, with the top floor, level eight, trading one apartment for a landscaped community breakout space rather than repeating the standard layout below.</p>

<p>Ground floor is dedicated to arrival and services, with a lobby, mailroom and manager's office, alongside 91 car spaces.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches 9-storey tower for low-rise Deception Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b098bde0-5fe1-4e6c-9601-e5446612e5fc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Deception%20podium.png?VersionId=A0hfENMNxSxkfh9Jl6D4WJ9XIraeOukA" /></p>

<p>Mode Design's brief describes a "serene coastal-inspired design blending soft curves, natural textures and light-filled spaces to reflect the relaxed Deception Bay lifestyle."&nbsp;</p>

<p>The material palette leans on white and grey render, timber-look aluminium screening and stacked-brick-look finishes, with hanging greenery and vine planting proposed across balcony edges and ground-level walls.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Balconies feature asymmetrical geometries intended to vary the building's rhythm rather than repeat a single module up the tower, while lush planting is concentrated over the entry and level one balconies to soften the building's base.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches 9-storey tower for low-rise Deception Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c05c5693-3e00-42d0-b075-55c36094f4db" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Deception%20da%201.png?VersionId=cMKJgBsBaaVCd2dA5O22SOT38OT_.BPA" /></p>

<p>The design evolved following an April 2025 prelodgement meeting with council. At that stage, the project was conceived as a seven-storey building containing 45 apartments. The subsequently lodged scheme increases the development to nine storeys and 60 apartments while introducing one-bedroom residences to the mix.</p>

<p>Zone Planning argues the additional scale reflects the site's position within an area earmarked for increased residential intensity. The planning report points to the North Lakes-Redcliffe-Moreton Bay Rail corridor strategy, which identifies Deception Bay as a district-level activity centre and supports greater housing choice within urban neighbourhoods.</p>

<p>Market Square Deception Bay, Deception Bay Sports Centre, Deception Bay State School, public transport, community facilities and the Moreton Bay foreshore are all identified within approximately one kilometre of the site, while the property falls within a 400-metre walking catchment of Market Square.</p>

First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches apartments for low-rise Deception Bay

<p data-end="587" data-start="368">Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.</p>

<p data-end="778" data-start="589">The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.</p>

<p data-end="907" data-start="780"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.</p>

<p data-end="1052" data-start="909">The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.</p>

<p data-end="1311" data-start="1054">The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.</p>

<p data-end="1451" data-start="1313">The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.</p>

<p data-end="1676" data-start="1453">MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.</p>

<p data-end="1908" data-start="1678">Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910">The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910"><img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" /></p>

<p data-end="2308" data-start="2144">MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="2648" data-start="2310">"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.</p>

<p data-end="2797" data-start="2650">"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."</p>

<p data-end="2938" data-start="2799">The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.</p>

<p data-end="3216" data-start="2940">Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.</p>

<p data-end="3325" data-start="3218">Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.</p>

<p data-end="3442" data-start="3327">"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.</p>

<p data-end="3662" data-start="3444">"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."</p>

<p data-end="3818" data-start="3664">MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="4076" data-start="3820">"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.</p>

<p data-end="4375" data-start="4078">"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."</p>

<p data-end="4503" data-start="4377">Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.</p>

<p data-end="4741" data-start="4505">"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."</p>

<p data-end="4910" data-start="4743">The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.</p>

<p data-end="4951" data-start="4912">MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.</p>


First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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<p data-end="600" data-start="394">Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.</p>

<p data-end="733" data-start="602">But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]</p>

<p data-end="1159" data-start="972">The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.</p>

<p data-end="1357" data-start="1161">It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.</p>

<p data-end="1664" data-start="1517">Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]</p>

<p data-end="2045" data-start="1828">Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2269" data-start="2047">"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.</p>

<p data-end="2430" data-start="2271">A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.</p>

<p data-end="2606" data-start="2432">It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2608">At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]</p>

<p data-end="3004" data-start="2894">Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.</p>

<p data-end="3214" data-start="3006">"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]</p>

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

Residential Construction

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<p>It's sometimes under-appreciated how Australia's free floating dollar, monetary policy autonomy, flexible labour force, and comparatively low government debt have allowed the economy to adjust through a seriously tumultuous period.</p>
<p>At the peak of the resources construction boom in the third quarter of calendar year 2012 engineering construction activity peaked at $34.8 billion, yet by the end of 2016 had dropped by some 43.3 per cent to under $20 billion. </p>
<p>This is what some people termed the "mining cliff", essentially the period through which resources projects transitioned from the construction phase through to production. </p>
<p>And through all of that we never really did get all that close to a recession, though admittedly rising private debt levels did help to grease the wheels a bit.</p>
<p>Rebound</p>
<p>More than four years on, and engineering construction actually began to rise again in early 2017.</p>
<p>Some of this was to do with infrastructure projects - rail, road, and highways - and some was related to ongoing resources investment in existing projects. </p>
<p>Activity rose quite strongly by +2.8 per cent to $20.3 billion in the first quarter.</p>
<p>Engineering work in the public sector was +10.2 per cent higher over the year, while the quarterly rebound was also helped by a +3 per cent rise in private sector activity in Q1. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/03/B2.jpg" target="_blank"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
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<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state</span></strong></div>
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<div>Queensland took most of its medicine back in 2014 as a number of major LNG projects approached the production phase, but the worst has now passed and annual construction activity levels in the Sunshine State have now been rising for four quarters consecutively.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Annual construction activity has also been rising steadily in New South Wales and Victoria since 2015. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>At least as importantly, Western Australia is now at last getting pretty close to the nadir, meaning that WA is no longer suffering the chronic declines that have characterised that past three years. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/03/B1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/03/B1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>No boom on the horizon, then, but arithmetically speaking this is positive news for the economy, simply because engineering construction is no longer acting as a drag.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The next pressing challenge will be whether construction employment can remain at today's elevated levels through a combination of residential building and infrastructure projects. </div>
<p> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Engineering construction no longer an economic drag

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<p>The 2016 December quarter showed lower conditions for residential construction nationwide according to the latest NAB Quarterly Business Survey.</p>
<p>The survey said this downturn may reflect concerns relating to costs and apartment oversupply.</p>
<p>"Business conditions for the construction industry took a step back in the December quarter, driven by a deterioration in non-residential building – which had previously been surprisingly strong," it said.</p>
<p>"Conditions elsewhere in the construction sub-industries were relatively steady, but continue to show somewhat weaker-than-expected conditions for residential construction – perhaps reflecting concerns about costs and an oversupply of apartments.</p>
<p>"As expected, engineering construction conditions remain weak, in line with falling mining investment, although the trend has been positive – the commodity price rally may have also contributed to improvements in confidence for the sub-sector."</p>
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Residential construction 'looking shaky': NAB

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<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
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<br>The latest construction data was certainly disappointing. Not only is construction work down over 11 percent on a year ago, but the falls were across an array of sectors.</div>
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<div class="column">Engineering and commercials continued to record the brunt of the weakness, while residential construction also fell from record highs. In addition the major states all recorded a fall in construction activity, with gains only in ACT, Tasmania and the Northern Territory.</div>
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<p>The ‘baton pass’ from engineering to residential building was clearly the driver of activity over the last couple of years. In fact engineering work is down by 23.2 percent on a year ago – just shy of the biggest annual fall on record, as opposed to residential construction, which eased from record highs. The results are even more staggering when you consider that just over two years ago engineering work surpassed total building (residential and commercial) by more than $9 billion.</p>
<p>And while policymakers would not be overly concerned at present, a substantial pullback in residential activity would create a void that could cause concern. Essentially the hope would be that commercial and non-mining related business investment will lift over the coming year and provide the economy with a lift in momentum.</p>
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<div class="column">Inflation in the building sector is healthy without being excessive. Not only was inflation flat in the September quarter but the annual rate of construction inflation eased back to 2 per cent. Interestingly recent construction industry reports forecast a rise in hourly rates over the medium term at unionised building sites due to new enterprise bargaining agreements and labour shortages.</div>
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<div class="column">In addition recently signed agreements suggest a 20 percent lift in wages over the next 4 years on some sites. Overall a lift in inflation in the building sector would not concern the Reserve Bank at present given the lack of inflation across the rest of the economy.  </div>
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<div class="column">Today’s data is unlikely to alter the Reserve Banks thinking when it comes to rates. Focus now turns to the June quarter business investment data released on December 1. And while the Reserve Bank will be particularly interested in estimates of completed non-mining investment, there will be a much greater focus on future spending plans - especially in light of the fact that private sector construction activity continues to disappoint.</div>
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<div class="column">What do the figures show?</div>
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<div class="column">Construction Work</div>
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<br>Construction work done fell by 4.9 percent in real (inflation-adjusted) terms in the September quarter after sliding by 3.1 percent in the June quarter. Work done is down by 11.1 percent on a year ago. Public sector construction work fell by 0.2 percent in the quarter while private sector activity fell by 6.0 percent.</div>
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<br>Construction work fell in five of the states and territories in the September quarter. Leading the falls was Western Australia (down 13.6 percent), followed by Victoria (down 6.9 percent), South Australia (down 1.3 percent), NSW (down 2.1 percent) and Queensland (down 0.2 percent). Construction rose in the ACT (up 7.1 percent), Tasmania (up 4.7 percent), and the Northern Territory (up 0.6 percent).</div>
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<br>Engineering work fell by 3.8 percent in the September quarter. Engineering construction is down by 23.2 percent on a year ago – just shy of the biggest annual fall on record.</div>
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<br>Commercial (non-residential) building fell by 10.9 per cent in the September quarter to be down 7.6 percent over the year. </div>
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<div class="column">Residential building fell by 3.1 per cent in the September quarter and was up by 6.3 percent over the year. Alterations &amp; additions fell by 0.6 percent in the quarter while new residential work fell by 3.4 percent.<br><p>The measure of inflation in the construction sector (deflator) was flat in the September quarter. The annual rate of construction inflation fell from 2.6 percent to 2.0 percent. Engineering prices fell by 0.7 percent in the quarter (up 1.7 percent over the year) while building prices rose by 0.6 percent in the quarter (1.9 percent over the year).</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/11/24/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-24%20at%208.52.56%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/11/24/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-24%20at%208.52.56%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>What is the importance of the economic data?</p>
<p> The Bureau of Statistics releases quarterly estimates of Construction work done. The estimates are based on a survey and cover around 85 per cent of the construction work done in the period. Revised estimates will be released in coming months. The data is useful largely for historical purposes but the work yet to be done estimates provide an early warning signal of future activity. The residential work figures give a good early guide to the strength of residential investment in the national accounts.</p>
<p>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</p>
There is still plenty of work in the construction sector. But there are winners and losers across states and industry sectors. The Reserve Bank will not be overly concerned with the current trends in construction. Overall activity is correcting as expected and adjusting to the new realities.</div>
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<br>CommSec expects the cash rate to remain on hold over the foreseeable future. </div>
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<div class="column"><em>Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a></em></div>
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Construction activity falls, tame building costs: Savanth Sebastian

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<p><span>New residential building is predicted to slow for the next two years to bottom at a</span><span> 'historically </span><span>healthy level of activity' </span><span>according to the Housing Industry Association's latest HIA National Outlook report.</span></p>
<p><span>Warwick Temby, HIA acting chief economist said HIA is forecasting a measured return to more normal levels of home building activity over the next couple of years.</span></p>
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<p><span>'Notwithstanding the current uncertainties around the </span><span>broader economic outlook, especially with the future US policy settings up in the air,' he said.</span></p>
<p><span>“The recent peak in new home building was unprecedented: an all</span><span>-time record 229,823 new residential dwellings started building in 2015/16. This record level of building has made a major contribution to </span><span>Australia’s economic growth over the last few years and eased the under</span><span>-supply of housing for both owner occupiers and renters that had built up over the previous ten years. </span></p>
<p><span>“Multi</span><span>-unit building, especially apartments in the Eastern States, has driven much of the growth in this cycle and is also forecast to lead the slowdown in new activity over the next couple of years. From their peak of 117,000 in this calendar year multi-unit commencements are expected to fall by over 40 per cent by 2018/19.</span></p>
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<p><span>“A softer landing is forecast for detached homes with 103,000 starts predicted for 2018/19, down 9 per </span><span>cent on the peak this year. </span></p>
<p><span>“The forecast falls in new activity will not be uniform across the country; Western Australia </span><span>and South Australia started their down-cycle well in advance of other states. </span></p>
<p><span>“Total new commencements are forecast to decline 3.1 percent, 18.5 per cent and 5.1 percent over the </span><span>period 2016/17 </span><span>– </span><span>2018/19, which would take commencements to a trough of 172,242, which is the average for the last ten years. </span></p>
<p><span>“Actual building activity on the ground will not decline in the same way as new starts due to the </span><span>substantial volume of work under construction that will not be completed until 2018 and into 2019. </span></p>
<p><span>“Dwelling renovations are forecast to grow over the forecast period counteracting some of the decline in </span><span>the new home building activity. By 2018/19 renovations are forecasts to have grown by 6.5 per cent to </span><span>be worth $32.96 billion in that year."</span></p>
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New residential building to slow: HIA

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<p>The HIA-COLORBOND® steel Housing 100 Report 2015/16 reveals a fourth consecutive increase in new dwelling commencements for Australia’s largest volume builders, with Metricon topping the latest list.</p>
<p>“This latest rise takes the number of HOUSING 100 starts to a record high, just surpassing the previous peak reached in 2003/04,” said HIA chief economist, Dr Harley Dale.</p>
<p>The total number of HOUSING 100 starts was 69,161 in 2015/16, compared to the previous record of 69,100 in 2003/04 and the ten year high of 68,621 reached in 2014/15.</p>
<p>The report, that ranks Australia’s largest 100 residential builders based on the number of homes commenced each year, found that Metricon Homes was the nation’s number one home builder in 2015/16.</p>
<p>Metricon Homes reported a total of 4,365 starts, of which 3,794 were detached houses and 571 were ‘semi-detached’ dwellings.</p>
<p>These homes were started across Victoria, Queensland, New South Wales, and South Australia.</p>
<p>The second highest ranked builder in 2015/16 was BGC (Australia) with 4,049 housing starts, followed by Harry Triguboff's Meriton Apartments with 3,793 starts.</p>
<p>The HOUSING 100 featured a number of ‘big movers’ in 2015/16.</p>
<p>Nine companies increased their housing starts by more than 200, while a further ten increased their housing starts by between 100 and 199.</p>
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<p>The biggest mover was MJH Group (+1,034 starts) followed by Metricon Homes (+994 starts).</p>
<p>The HOUSING 100 started 50,507 detached houses in 2015/16.</p>
<p>The nation’s largest 100 builders started 5,697 semi-detached dwellings and 12,957 multi-units.</p>
<p>“A key focus during this record new home building cycle has been on the changing composition of new dwelling supply, particularly the increased volume and share of medium/high density (MHD) dwellings,” noted Harley Dale.</p>
<p>“The latest HOUSING 100 results reflect this changing dynamic of Australia’s new home construction landscape.</p>
<p>“Beyond this year the housing pond becomes muddier - the record level of MHD product in the pipeline provides the Australian economy with an unprecedented degree of uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of the down cycle,” concluded Harley Dale.</p>
<p>“The broad brush approach to credit restrictions applied by APRA, together with the cash-grab transaction costs levied by some state governments on foreign investors exacerbate the downside risks to new home construction and therefore the broader domestic economy.”</p>
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Metricon tops BGC and Meriton as largest home builder: HIA top 100

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<p><span>Urban infill developments have the potential to slow urban sprawl and meet the demands of population growth, according to Cedar Woods Properties.</span></p>
<p>Patrick Archer, Cedar Woods’ state manager said by integrating a range of housing typologies and open spaces, urban infill projects work to create a sense of place and foster community relationships.</p>
<p>“We’re actually achieving about five times the density of the average suburb, but the difference is it’s not in a static high rise apartment,” he said.</p>
<p>“Usually it’s big houses or tiny apartments, but we’ve really focused on a model that includes a range of typologies, achieving densities of between 40 and 50 dwellings a hectare.</p>
<p>“It’s our intention not to detract from these established suburbs, but to add to these communities with a variety of housing typologies that’s appealing and complements the existing architectural character.</p>
<p>“Urban infill sites facilitate this innovation, allowing more people to live in an established and sought-after suburbs close to their work, schools, open spaces and amenities.</p>
<p>"At Jackson Green in Clayton South for example, a mix of detached, semi-attached, attached and townhouses are complemented by 170 apartments ranging from 50 square metre one-bedrooms to four-bedroom family town homes of up to 225 square metres."</p>
<p>Such infill developments include Camberwell in the city’s east, Footscray in the west, and Clayton South in the south east.</p>
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Urban infill developments could slow urban sprawl

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Construction work done in the June quarter by 3.7 percent, to be down 10.6 per cent on a year ago.</p>
<p>Engineering work fell by 9 percent in the June quarter – biggest quarterly fall in 151⁄2 years. Engineering construction is down by 24.9 percent on a year ago – biggest annual fall on record. Residential work rose by 0.8 percent in the June quarter to record highs, while commercial building lifted by 2.1 percent.</p>
<p>Building inflation: Building inflation rose by 0.6 percent in the June quarter. The annual rate of construction inflation rose from 2.1 percent to 2.7 percent – marking the fastest annual growth rate in 71⁄2- years.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/24/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-24%20at%201.49.52%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<p>Construction work fell in four of the states and territories in the June quarter. Leading the falls was Western Australia (down 19 percent), followed by Northern Territory (down 3.2 percent), NSW (down 1.3 percent) and Tasmania (down 0.4 percent). Construction rose in Victoria (up 5.2 percent), Queensland (up 2.7 percent), the ACT (up 0.5 percent) and South Australia (up 0.1 percent).  The data on construction work is important for builders, building material companies and developers.  </p>
<p>What does it all mean?</p>
<p>Inflation in the building sector is lifting. Not only is the annual rate of construction inflation the fastest in over seven years. But inflation in three out of the past four quarters is amongst the strongest results recorded in the past four years. In addition recent construction industry reports forecast a further rise in hourly rates over the medium term at unionised building sites due to new enterprise bargaining agreements and labour shortages. Overall the lift in inflation in the building sector would not concern the Reserve Bank at present given the lack of inflation across the rest of the economy.</p>
<p>The ‘baton pass’ from engineering to residential building is clear for all to see. Engineering work continues to recede while home building has hit new highs. In fact engineering work record the sharpest quarterly decline in almost 16 years. Interestingly the gap between building (residential and commercial) and engineering in terms of total work is the largest in almost 10 years. The results are even more staggering when you consider that just over two years ago engineering work surpassed total building by more than $8 billion. The speed of the turnaround has shown up in the patchiness across the national economy and in effect highlights the difficulties faced by policymakers in trying to shore up growth</p>
<p>Today’s data is unlikely to alter the Reserve Banks thinking when it comes to rates. Focus now turns to the June quarter business investment data released on September 1. And while the Reserve Bank will be particularly interested in estimates of completed non-mining investment, there will be a much greater focus on future spending plans - especially in light of the fact that private sector construction activity continues to disappoint. </p>
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<p>What do the figures show?</p>
<p>Construction Work</p>
<p>Construction work done fell by 3.7 per cent in real (inflation-adjusted) terms in the June quarter after sliding by 0.3 per cent in the March quarter. Work done is down by 10.6 per cent on a year ago. Public sector construction work rose by 5.3 per cent in the quarter while private sector activity fell by 5.7 per cent.</p>
<p>Construction work fell in four of the states and territories in the June quarter. Leading the falls was Western Australia (down 19 per cent), followed by Northern Territory (down 3.2 per cent), NSW (down 1.3 per cent) and Tasmania (down 0.4 per cent). Construction rose in Victoria (up 5.2 per cent), Queensland (up 2.7 per cent), the ACT (up 0.5 per cent) and South Australia (up 0.1 per cent).</p>
<p>Engineering work fell by 9 percent in the June quarter – biggest quarterly fall in 15 1⁄2 years. Engineering construction is down by 24.9 percent on a year ago – biggest annual fall on record.</p>
<p>Commercial (non-residential) building rose by 2.1 percent in the June quarter to be up 0.4 percent over the year.</p>
<p>Residential building rose by 0.8 percent in the June quarter and was up by 9.4 percent over the year. Alterations &amp; additions rose by 5.4 percent in the quarter while new residential work rose by 0.1 percent.</p>
<p>The measure of inflation in the construction sector (deflator) rose by 0.6 per cent in the June quarter. The annual rate of construction inflation rose from 2.1 per cent to 2.7 percent – matching the fastest annual growth rate in almost 71⁄2 years. Engineering prices rose by 0.6 percent in the quarter (up 2.6 percent over the year) while building prices rose by 0.4 percent in the quarter (2 per cent over the year).</p>
<p>What is the importance of the economic data?</p>
<p>The Bureau of Statistics releases quarterly estimates of Construction work done. The estimates are based on a survey and cover around 85 per cent of the construction work done in the period. Revised estimates will be released in coming months. The data is useful largely for historical purposes but the work yet to be done estimates provide an early warning signal of future activity. The residential work figures give a good early guide to the strength of residential investment in the national accounts.</p>
<p>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</p>
<p>There is plenty of work in the construction sector. But there are winners and losers across states and industry sectors. The Reserve Bank will not be overly concerned with the current trends in construction. Overall activity is correcting as expected and adjusting to the new realities.</p>
<p>While policymakers will continue to discuss the merits of another rate cut, it really comes down to the inflation outlook. CommSec expects a low inflation result over the September quarter should result in the central bank cutting the cash rate once again in November. </p>
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<div class="column"><em>Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a></em></div>
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Building costs rise at the fastest pace in 7.5 years: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/63264/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Breeze blocks are having a moment in the sun. Having been painfully hip in the architecture of the 1950s and 60s, they were used so extensively, in both houses and commercial buildings, that they became ubiquitous anywhere in the world where it was hot – including throughout Australia.</p>
<p>While particularly associated with a beachy, holiday feeling – Gold Coast motels, houses in Palm Springs – they were really so widely-used that they can still be found pretty much everywhere. But after that postwar high point, they fell drastically out of favour, and languished for the next fifty years, built into the walls and gardens of our youths, widely loathed and reviled for being ugly and out of date.</p>
<p>Now their fortunes have turned again and architects, for the moment at least, can’t get enough of them: at the 2016 Houses Awards, announced two weeks ago, the “Best house under 200 metres squared” went to the Naranga Avenue House, by James Russell Architect – a lovely minimal house with a tight, rigorous plan, which undoubtedly won the award because of its “skin of delicate breezeblocks,” described by the awards jury as having “a sublime, ephemeral quality.”</p>
<p>Likewise, one of last year’s most published dwellings was Architect Prineas’ Breeze Block House, which transformed a 1950s bungalow through the use of a crisp, white-painted breezeblock screen wall. Dividing and defining two indoor/outdoor courtyard spaces, this wall also gives the house a distinct character.</p>
<p>You only need to dip into the Instagram feed of Sydney architect Sam Marshall, aka @breezeblockhead, to see the architectural community (including me, I’ll admit) collectively drooling over the multifarious screens, walls, fences, stairwells, undercrofts, carports, and garden rooms that this versatile material lends itself to. Marshall has been collecting images of breezeblocks for sixteen years, and has more than nine thousand followers.</p>
<p>Meanwhile on Pinterest it’s fascinating to see patterns and shapes from other countries – some highly inventive and very beautiful, a long way from the one or two rather stolid designs that were standard in the Adelaide suburbs of my childhood.</p>
<p>Patterned concrete blocks have a long (and sometimes celebrated) lineage. Some people credit Frank Lloyd Wright with inventing them, and indeed he did invent a precast concrete “textile block” system, which he used on several houses in Los Angeles including the Millard and Ennis Houses.</p>
<p>Inspired by the ornamentation on Mayan temples, the relief patterns on Lloyd Wright’s blocks are only slightly reminiscent of what we in Australia would call a breeze block (or screen block, or pattern block, or cinder block) because they are much less permeable – really his is a wall system, rather than a screen one.</p>
<p>The breeze block can also be linked more broadly to the tradition of the <em>brise soleil</em>, which refers to any kind of sun baffle installed outside the skin of a building (which is where the sun screens should be! Stop the heat before it enters your building envelope!). Breeze blocks are not (usually) structural, hence they were often used where a garden meets a house – patio screens or carports or garden walls. In commercial buildings, they were often used for stairwells, balcony screening, and curtain wall sun-shading to large windows.</p>
<p>Right now we are in the midst of a resurgence of interest in postwar design: the wild popularity of all things <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-century_modern">mid-century modern</a> (or mid-mod, or MCM) has spread beyond furniture and houses to materials, and the breeze block has been carried along on that tide.</p>
<p>It is of course a well-known strategy to take the most passe thing you can find and re-appropriate it, for shock value, and to jolt everyone into seeing it anew. But in the case of the breeze block it seems to me more than that – because these “concrete masonary units” (as they’re technically called) actually have qualities that don’t exist in other materials.</p>
<p>You can make permeable walls out of timber or sheet materials or even bricks, but you won’t get quite the same effect as breeze blocks provide: a durable screen which is private and secure, offers sun shading and weather protection <em>and</em> ventilation, and has the added bonus of being highly patterned with geometric ornament. Breeze blocks expand the architect’s repertoire and ability to manipulate the wall with different degrees of solidity and permeability, openness and enclosure. </p>
<p>Plus, they’re pleasing to the eye. A breeze block screen wall can be a beautiful thing – the pattern of each individual block adding to a greater whole, and a larger pattern, when they’re used en masse.</p>
<p>Of course, I didn’t always see the beauty in a breeze block. In fact, I thought they were hideous; an irredeemably ugly vestige of another time, banal and styleless, they reminded me of everything I hated about suburbia. Partly it was their materiality – concrete blockwork can be hard to love, especially in its untreated forms, and breezeblocks are made of a particularly scratchy and drab variety. It’s no coincidence that many of the contemporary architects are choosing to paint theirs.</p>
<p>So what can we make of this resurgence, other than yet another spin on the wheel of architectural fashion? Building materials come and go; my childhood home in the late 1970s had faux venetian glass in the windows and timber shakes on the roof – the very height of style at the time. Likewise, at the moment there is a rash of rusted corten steel, and an eruption of laser-cut perforated metal screens, creeping over the buildings of our cities – these are very modish right now, but in a few years they will be testaments to the (past) time of their design and construction, as all buildings and materials inevitably are.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Because, in fact, architectural fashions are far more than just frivolous or superficial fancies, they can tell us a lot about the values and concerns of a building’s culture, in a particular location, at a particular time. This is why architectural historians are so interested in past “fashions” (we might also link them to movements, or schools, or ideologies) – because they can be highly revealing. Thus the more interesting story here is not so much fashion, but <em>temporality</em> – how a thing, or material, or building, reveals its being of its time.</p>
<p>This also leads to a danger, for so-called “middle aged” buildings: it’s a truism of the heritage professions that when a building is old enough to seem unstylish and dated, but not yet old enough to be valued as legitimately historical and worth preserving, then it is highly vulnerable to being demolished, or equally of being renovated to death. Young buildings are valued, and very old ones are too, but middle-aged buildings are exposed, and many good ones don’t make it.</p>
<p>Finally, though, in the return of the breeze block is a story about ornament. Many contemporary architects are exploring new modes of surface and material ornament, and it’s easy to see the return of the breeze block as part of this movement. The exploration, and valuation, of pattern, geometry, adornment and richness in the surface of buildings is very much A Good Thing. And so, all hail the breeze block: a material redeemed.</p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Naomi Stead is a</span>ssociate professor, The University of Queensland and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/naomi-stead-108029" target="_blank">here.</a></em></p>
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The return of the breeze block

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<p>With healthy levels of activity in the residential construction sector the proposed changes to mine subsidence districts by the Mine Subsidence Board (MSB) are well-timed, reported the Housing Industry Association.</p>
<p>"The proposed new Districts of Maitland West and Branxton in particular are supported as they sit within important growth corridor that shall continue to progress in the coming years," explained HIA Hunter Executive Director, Craig Jennion.</p>
<p>"Whilst long-term residents may be well aware of previous mining activity in these locations, for new residents the establishment of these Districts will ensure that any new building activity, including renovations, will trigger the need to seek MSB approval prior to commencement," Mr Jennion said.</p>
<p>In other locations Districts are proposed to be reduced where land has not been undermined.</p>
<p>"This is commended for this shall both shorten approval timeframes and reduce construction costs as approvals will no longer be required and engineering and architectural considerations will not need to be incorporated into home designs where a risk does not exist. This will remove red tape for industry and make homes more affordable for homeowners".</p>
<p>HIA believes that in addition to a review of Districts the MSB and the NSW Government should do more to address industry concerns about subsidence, particularly in inner Newcastle.</p>
<p>"Whilst the establishment of a $17 million fund to address subsidence issues is to be applauded HIA has concerns that this will be inadequate to address the level of subsidence that has stopped development at higher densities in recent decades," Mr Jennion said.</p>
<p>In addition, HIA believes that the NSW government should continue to ensure there are sufficient funds to support research and investment in new technology to address subsidence concerns.</p>
<p>"Addressing this will provide confidence to industry and will ensure that the residential housing sector can provide projects with the height and density to revitalise Newcastle and provide the lifestyle that the community both needs and expects," concluded Mr Jennion.</p>
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Property 101: Residential approvals in NSW regions with mining subsidence

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>A weaker set of economic results. A modest slide in the number of dwelling approvals, and a substantial rise in the trade deficit. The only positives to be taken out of the data related to the rise in the value of building approvals. Overall there is nothing in the data to stop the Reserve Bank from cutting interest rates if they deem it necessary.  </p>
<p>The housing sector continues to bubble along at a healthy pace. Home prices remain resilient despite changes in regulation and tighter lending standards that have been adopted by the banking sector. Importantly the pipeline of new building will continue to support broader-based economic growth over the coming 12-18 months.  </p>
<p>Over the past year 233,246 new homes were approved, easing further from the record high 240,842 in the year to October 2015. The anticipated lift in housing supply should ensure a more balanced environment – in essence house price growth is likely to be more contained over the medium term.  </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-02%20at%201.59.09%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-02%20at%201.59.09%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The housing sector isn’t the hotly contested issue it was a year ago, but still the Reserve Bank will keep a close eye on the sector, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p>The trade accounts remain firmly in the red. Not only have the trade accounts been in deficit for over two consecutive years, but the 12-month rolling annual deficit came in at a sizeable $35.7 billion. However the trade data doesn’t have the impact on the currency that it once did.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-02%20at%202.00.10%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-02%20at%202.00.10%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>What do the figures show?</p>
<p><br>Building Approvals:</p>
<p>Dwelling approvals fell by 2.9 per cent in June after falling by 5.4 per cent in May. In trend terms, approvals fell by 0.9 per cent in June.  <br>Over the past year 233,246 new homes were approved, easing further from the record high 240,842 in the year to October 2015.  <br>House approvals fell by 2.4 per cent in June after a 0.5 per cent rise in May (private sector fell by 2.3 per cent). Meanwhile ‘lumpy’ apartment approvals fell by 3.4 per cent in June after falling by 10.7 per cent in May. Private sector apartment approvals fell by 2.4 per cent in June.<br>Dwelling approvals in June were down 5.9 per cent on a year ago with house approvals down 5.5 per cent while apartments are down by 6.3 per cent.  </p>
<p>Across states and territories in June: NSW (-4 per cent); Victoria (+4.1 per cent); Queensland (-2.1 per cent); South Australia (-12.3 per cent); Western Australia (+2.4 per cent); Tasmania (-23.6 per cent). In trend terms, approvals rose by 3.6 per cent in the Northern Territory and by 2.8 per cent in the ACT.  </p>
<p>The value of all commercial and residential building approvals rose by 5.3 per cent in June after falling by 10.7 per cent in May. Residential approvals fell by 1.5 per cent with new building down by 1.2 per cent while alterations &amp; additions fell by 3.8 per cent. Commercial building rose by 20.8 per cent in June to be up 18.8 per cent on a year ago.  </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-02%20at%202.01.10%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-02%20at%202.01.10%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>International trade:</p>
<p>Australia’s trade deficit widened from $2.42 billion in May to $3.2 billion in June. It was the 27th consecutive  monthly deficit. The rolling 12-month deficit eased from $36.2 billion to a 7-month low of $35.7 billion.</p>
<p>In June, exports of goods and services fell by 0.8 per cent (goods down 1.1 per cent) while imports of goods and services rose by 2 per cent (goods up 2.6 per cent). Exports are down 0.9 per cent on a year ago, while imports are down by 2.3 per cent.  </p>
<p>Within imports, consumer imports rose by 7.4 per cent with capital goods imports up by 2.9 per cent while intermediate goods imports fell by 1.1 per cent.</p>
<p>Consumption goods imports are up 8.9 per cent on a year ago while capital goods imports are up 8.6 per cent and intermediate goods imports are down by 18 per cent. </p>
<p>Australia's annual exports to China stood at $80.1 billion in the year to June. Annual exports were down 1 per cent on a year ago. Exports to China accounted for 32.9 per cent of Australia's total exports.  </p>
<p>Australia's annual imports from China eased from $61.4 billion to $61.3 billion in the year to June, up 7.6 per cent on a year ago. Imports from China accounted for 23.3 per cent of Australia's total imports.  </p>
<p>Australia's rolling annual trade surplus with China held near recent 5-year lows. The annual trade surplus was $18.7 billion in June – but well down from the record high of $51.2 billion set in April 2014.  </p>
<p>Australia annual exports to the US eased from $13.3 billion to $13.2 billion in the year to June and down from a record high of $13.69 billion in the year to October 2015. The share of annual exports going to the US eased from a 7-year high of 5.5 per cent to 5.4 per cent.  </p>
<p>Australia’s annual exports to India eased further from the two-year high of $10.34 billion set in the year to December 2015 to $9.52 billion in the year to June.  </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-02%20at%202.02.15%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-02%20at%202.02.15%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>What is the importance of the economic data? </p>
<p>The Bureau of Statistics' monthly Building Approvals release contains figures on local council approvals to build residential structures such as homes and units as well as commercial premises such as offices and shops. Approval is one of the first stages of the construction ‘pipeline’ and is thus a key leading indicator of future activity. An increase in approvals would point to stronger future activity for construction-related companies.  </p>
<p>The monthly International Trade in Goods and Services release from the Bureau of Statistics provides estimates on exports and imports of physical goods (such as coal, beef and computers) and services (such as travel receipts). The balance of goods and services (BOGS) is a narrower description of Australia’s external position than the current account estimates. The import data is a useful gauge of consumer and business spending while exports reflect global demand as well as domestic influences such as drought.  </p>
<p>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?  </p>
<p>While new council approvals to build new homes appear to have peaked, activity levels are still healthy. But now investors and builders need to do more research to ensure that the projects they are interested in remain viable with competing projects. There is certainly potential for indigestion in certain towns and regions as new projects are completed and the stock is absorbed.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-02%20at%202.03.22%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-02%20at%202.03.22%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The Reserve Bank will closely monitor developments in China and financial markets more generally. Encouragingly the Reserve Bank has plenty of firepower to provide stimulus to the economy, especially given the low inflation environment.  </p>
<p><em>Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a></em></p>
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