<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/broadbeach-qld-4218">Broadbeach</a> offers plenty of reasons to live vertically, but moving from a substantial family home into an apartment can expose the compromises of high-density living. Privacy, room for guests and usable living space tend to matter more when an apartment is intended as a permanent home rather than an occasional coastal base.</p>

<p>A typical residential floor at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-eveleigh-broadbeach-7-9-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Eveleigh</a>, on Surf Parade,&nbsp;contains just four apartments. The 94-residence development by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hirsch-faigen">Hirsch &amp; Faigen</a> is predominantly made up of expansive three-bedroom homes, with a limited collection of half-floor penthouses above.</p>

<p>Across the apartment floors, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> has used the relatively limited number of residences to give each home greater access to natural light and outlook. Living spaces extend towards full-height glazing, while a series of bay windows frame selected views across the Pacific Ocean, city and hinterland rather than treating the building edge as a continuous wall of glass.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360965]</p>

<p>“The apartment floors deliver a collection of homes that embrace controlled outlook via a series of bay windows deliberately framing moments of view,” Rothelowman Director Kim Lowman said.</p>

<p>From outside, those projecting forms contribute to the tower’s faceted profile. Strong horizontal and vertical elements establish its proportions, while the changing position of the sun alters the light, shadow and reflection across the façade throughout the day.</p>

<p>The same attention moves inside the apartments, where the material palette combines warm timber, natural stone, metallic detailing and softer curved forms. Kitchens sit within the main living zone, with stone island benches, integrated joinery and European appliances, before the living areas extend towards the glazing and the outlook.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360981]</p>

<p>Three genuine bedrooms provide room to accommodate family and guests, while two secure car spaces and storage address some of the practical considerations that can become more noticeable when moving from a larger home. Feedback from the display suite has centred on the warmth and restraint of the interiors, with buyers commenting that the residences feel like homes rather than conventional coastal apartments.</p>

<p>A limited collection of half-floor penthouses occupies the upper levels, increasing the scale of the living spaces and adding private balconies and elevated finishes. From this position, the outlook extends between the ocean and hinterland.</p>

<p>Outside the private residences, The Eveleigh separates its shared spaces between the podium and rooftop. The podium is centred on wellness, with subtropical landscaping surrounding a swimming pool and pool terrace, yoga garden, private gymnasium, sauna and hot and cold plunge facilities. Landscaped retreats and pavilions provide additional places to sit away from the main recreation areas.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360966]</p>

<p>Higher in the building, a rooftop pavilion and private dining suite sit alongside resident lounge, barbecue and outdoor dining areas, opening towards panoramic views across the ocean, city and hinterland.</p>

<p>“Buyers are no longer just looking for an apartment, but a lifestyle where they can relax, reset, and enjoy a balanced way of living,” Hirsch &amp; Faigen Director of Sales Matt George said.</p>

<p>Interest to date has come from established owner-occupiers and interstate lifestyle purchasers, including buyers planning a future move to the Gold Coast. Many are coming from larger homes and want to reduce ongoing maintenance without giving up space for family and guests, privacy, two car spaces or the ability to entertain at home.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360969]</p>

<p>Much of that daily life can also take place beyond the building without requiring a drive. Kurrawa Beach and Pratten Park are an easy walk from Surf Parade, while Pacific Fair, Oracle Boulevard, The Oasis, restaurants, cafés, entertainment and public transport are also within walking distance.</p>

<p data-end="8307" data-start="8063">The Eveleigh is Hirsch &amp; Faigen's fourth Gold Coast development since entering the market in 2021, following The Hemingway at Palm Beach, The Emerson at Kirra and Yves at Mermaid Beach. Each of the preceding projects sold out before completion.</p>

<p data-end="8543" data-start="8312">“Broadbeach had been on our radar throughout our time operating on the Gold Coast,” the developer said. “Following our projects in Palm Beach, Kirra and Mermaid Beach, Broadbeach represented the natural next step for the business.”</p>

<p data-end="8915" data-start="8548">The Surf Parade site brought together proximity to the beach, protected coastal outlooks and walkability to dining, shopping and recreation. Hirsch &amp; Faigen also identified the street as an emerging premium residential address, with enough separation from Broadbeach's busier destinations to retain a quieter environment at home.</p>

<p>The Eveleigh is now under construction by Maxcon, with completion forecast for mid-2028. Three-bedroom residences are currently available from $2.87 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149670]</p>


Joel Robinson

The Eveleigh brings house-like apartments to Broadbeach

<p>A long-stalled Campbelltown development site is back in play, with new plans for 139 apartments set to supersede a mixed-use scheme approved almost a decade ago but never built.</p>

<p>The new proposal for 28 Cordeaux Street would deliver 116 market and 23 affordable apartments in a part 14-storey building, bringing a substantial new project into a Campbelltown market where new apartment supply remains limited.</p>

<p>Plans have been filed over the 3,092 sqm corner site at Moore-Oxley Street, around 600 metres from Campbelltown Railway Station and the city-centre retail core.</p>

<p>The site already carries a mixed-use residential approval dating to 2016. Doroch Architects has now been engaged on a larger replacement scheme, which is progressing as a State Significant Development Application following a Housing Delivery Authority determination in August 2025.</p>

<p>The apartment mix comprises 39 one-bedroom, 72 two-bedroom and 28 three-bedroom residences. Two-bedroom apartments make up just over half of the project, while three-bedroom homes account for 20 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="136dd5b9-3791-4da6-9e31-76f533f5b4de" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da2.png?VersionId=LgOSy9nwf5u.MGswBBwaGGxuX8QpHSl_" /></p>

<p>Of the 139 apartments, 23 will be delivered as affordable housing under the in-fill affordable housing provisions of the Housing SEPP. The affordable component represents 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area and will be managed by a registered Community Housing Provider.</p>

<p>Doroch has sought to break the scale of the building into two distinct elements, with a masonry podium of around four storeys establishing the street edge before the residential tower steps back above.</p>

<p>The corner position has shaped that approach. Cordeaux Street faces toward the commercial and civic centre, while Moore-Oxley Street leads into the lower-scale residential neighbourhood to the south, and the design verification report describes the site as "bridging the commercial core to the north and established residential areas to the south."</p>

<p>The podium will be expressed predominantly in face brick, while the upper levels shift to brushed and grooved concrete cladding with darker metal detailing. Recessed sections, deep balcony edges and landscaping break down the upper form, with an approximately 11.8-metre setback to the northern boundary addressing the adjoining St Peters Anglican School.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c8b3d2d3-c561-4bfc-a5d9-a68c0c10dac1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da1.png?VersionId=AeAEyJU02Gk2k5noUj2StziCvdQ7fW4B" /></p>

<p>Campbelltown has been starved of new residential developments in the last decade.</p>

<p>The only other notable development set to come to market this year is ALAND's Queen Square, a mixed-use precinct on over two hectares that will comprise apartments above a vibrant ground-level retail and hospitality dining precinct.</p>


First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site

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<p>A 60-apartment building nine storeys tall would be a rarity almost anywhere along this stretch of Moreton Bay, but that's exactly what's been lodged for a modest Deception Bay street better known for its single-storey weatherboard homes.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherlock-construction-homes">Sherlock Construction Homes</a> is seeking to push Deception Bay’s emerging medium-density housing profile higher, lodging plans for a nine-storey apartment building near the suburb’s shopping centre and foreshore.</p>

<p>Dubbed Grosvenor Apartments, the proposal at 14-20 Grosvenor Terrace would replace two detached homes with a new building designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mode">Mode Design</a>&nbsp;which would&nbsp;reach nearly 30 metres, well above the site’s mapped 21-metre building height.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches 9-storey tower for low-rise Deception Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="86c21a25-5a97-4ca7-a361-80757137ea5b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Deception%20da%20front.png?VersionId=aXIujfvEhH33sLHOEjHFv9Ii6qxSvAF4" /></p>

<p>The apartment mix is weighted toward larger homes, with 14 three-bedroom apartments, 31 two-bedroom apartments and 15 one-bedroom apartments. Six apartment types are spread across the floors, ranging from 66 sqm one-bedroom units through to three-bedroom apartments of 116 sqm, most with private balconies or terraces.</p>

<p>Levels one through seven follow a consistent layout of six to eight apartments per floor arranged around a central lift and stair core, with the top floor, level eight, trading one apartment for a landscaped community breakout space rather than repeating the standard layout below.</p>

<p>Ground floor is dedicated to arrival and services, with a lobby, mailroom and manager's office, alongside 91 car spaces.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches 9-storey tower for low-rise Deception Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b098bde0-5fe1-4e6c-9601-e5446612e5fc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Deception%20podium.png?VersionId=A0hfENMNxSxkfh9Jl6D4WJ9XIraeOukA" /></p>

<p>Mode Design's brief describes a "serene coastal-inspired design blending soft curves, natural textures and light-filled spaces to reflect the relaxed Deception Bay lifestyle."&nbsp;</p>

<p>The material palette leans on white and grey render, timber-look aluminium screening and stacked-brick-look finishes, with hanging greenery and vine planting proposed across balcony edges and ground-level walls.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Balconies feature asymmetrical geometries intended to vary the building's rhythm rather than repeat a single module up the tower, while lush planting is concentrated over the entry and level one balconies to soften the building's base.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches 9-storey tower for low-rise Deception Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c05c5693-3e00-42d0-b075-55c36094f4db" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Deception%20da%201.png?VersionId=cMKJgBsBaaVCd2dA5O22SOT38OT_.BPA" /></p>

<p>The design evolved following an April 2025 prelodgement meeting with council. At that stage, the project was conceived as a seven-storey building containing 45 apartments. The subsequently lodged scheme increases the development to nine storeys and 60 apartments while introducing one-bedroom residences to the mix.</p>

<p>Zone Planning argues the additional scale reflects the site's position within an area earmarked for increased residential intensity. The planning report points to the North Lakes-Redcliffe-Moreton Bay Rail corridor strategy, which identifies Deception Bay as a district-level activity centre and supports greater housing choice within urban neighbourhoods.</p>

<p>Market Square Deception Bay, Deception Bay Sports Centre, Deception Bay State School, public transport, community facilities and the Moreton Bay foreshore are all identified within approximately one kilometre of the site, while the property falls within a 400-metre walking catchment of Market Square.</p>

First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches apartments for low-rise Deception Bay

<p data-end="587" data-start="368">Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.</p>

<p data-end="778" data-start="589">The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.</p>

<p data-end="907" data-start="780"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.</p>

<p data-end="1052" data-start="909">The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.</p>

<p data-end="1311" data-start="1054">The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.</p>

<p data-end="1451" data-start="1313">The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.</p>

<p data-end="1676" data-start="1453">MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.</p>

<p data-end="1908" data-start="1678">Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910">The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910"><img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" /></p>

<p data-end="2308" data-start="2144">MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="2648" data-start="2310">"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.</p>

<p data-end="2797" data-start="2650">"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."</p>

<p data-end="2938" data-start="2799">The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.</p>

<p data-end="3216" data-start="2940">Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.</p>

<p data-end="3325" data-start="3218">Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.</p>

<p data-end="3442" data-start="3327">"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.</p>

<p data-end="3662" data-start="3444">"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."</p>

<p data-end="3818" data-start="3664">MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="4076" data-start="3820">"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.</p>

<p data-end="4375" data-start="4078">"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."</p>

<p data-end="4503" data-start="4377">Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.</p>

<p data-end="4741" data-start="4505">"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."</p>

<p data-end="4910" data-start="4743">The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.</p>

<p data-end="4951" data-start="4912">MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.</p>


First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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<p data-end="600" data-start="394">Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.</p>

<p data-end="733" data-start="602">But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]</p>

<p data-end="1159" data-start="972">The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.</p>

<p data-end="1357" data-start="1161">It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.</p>

<p data-end="1664" data-start="1517">Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]</p>

<p data-end="2045" data-start="1828">Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2269" data-start="2047">"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.</p>

<p data-end="2430" data-start="2271">A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.</p>

<p data-end="2606" data-start="2432">It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2608">At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]</p>

<p data-end="3004" data-start="2894">Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.</p>

<p data-end="3214" data-start="3006">"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]</p>

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

Residential Construction

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<div>The latest Consumer Prices Index revealed some interesting trends in rental growth to December 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the national level rental growth of just +1.2 percent is the slowest we have seen since 1995, which makes a good deal of sense given the great surge in the number of investors and the construction response to rising dwelling prices. </div>
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<div>Essentially this is the opposite of what happened in 1985 when investors exited the market following restrictive changes to tax legislation.</div>
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<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>City by city</strong></span></div>
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<div>In most quality locations, rental growth is simply following the cycle, slowing in response to a surge in both construction and the number of investor-owned dwellings.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Annual rental growth remains positive in Sydney (+2.3 per cent), Melbourne (+1.7 per cent), Brisbane (+1.0 per cent), Adelaide (+1.2 per cent), and Hobart (+1.1 per cent).</div>
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<div>It is a truism to say that there are diverging trends within those markets, particularly noteworthy being slowing rents in high density and high rise apartment complexes.  </div>
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<div>Rental growth has turned negative in Perth and Darwin, following an enormous surge through the mining boom, while Canberra has actually recorded moderately negative rents for the past three years.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Long run trends</span></strong></div>
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<div>It pays to be wary about analysis calling "plummeting" rental growth, but it is true that the rental market will generally need to slow in order that the high levels of investor stock can be absorbed. </div>
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<div>Eventually stronger rental price growth will return, but only once investor finance has pulled back, and the cycle does take time to work through. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The long run data shows the cyclical nature of rental growth by capital city. </div>
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<div><span>Looking at rental growth by year it is clear that while rental price growth been strongest in Sydney over the past five years, over the past decade the resources states have seen the greatest increase in the cost of renting, some of which is now unwinding.</span></div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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National rental growth slowest since 1995: Pete Wargent

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<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics released construction work done data for the March 2016 quarter last week. </p>
<p>The data set looks at the value of construction work completed over the quarter and is an input to the national accounts (GDP) data.</p>
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<p><img src="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-1-3-580x210.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Over the quarter, the value of construction work done was $47.928 billion which was down -5.5 percent over the quarter and -7.2 percent year-on-year.  In fact, the value of construction work done over the March 2016 quarter was the lowest since June 2011 and has been trending lower since the December 2012 quarter.</p>
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<p><img src="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-2-2-580x208.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The decline in the value of work done is largely being driven by engineering construction which was bolstered until recent by the mining investment boom.  Over the quarter there was $24.9 billion worth of building work completed and $23.0 billion in engineering construction completed. </p>
<p>It shows that following a recent boost from infrastructure investment, building construction is now the key driver.  The value of engineering construction work done peaked at $34.7 billion in the September 2012 quarter and has since fallen by -33.6 percent while building activity peaked at $25.2 billion in the December 2015 quarter and has fallen by -1.0%.  With construction work in both the building and engineering sectors falling it is difficult to see how construction work done won’t continue to decline over the coming months.  Even the largest residential housing construction boom on record has not been enough to offset the previous largest engineering construction investment boom on record.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-3-2-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-3-2-580x210.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The building segment of construction work done consists of residential and non-residential construction (offices, retail shops, industrial properties).  The previous data showed building work has started to fall with the fall being driven by non-residential construction.  In fact residential construction work done is continuing to climb and is now at a record high $16.6 billion while non-residential is down -18.6 percent from its June 2010 peak.  While the largest residential construction boom in history continues to drive activity in that sector higher, it isn’t enough to offset the decline in the non-residential (and engineering construction) sector which is well below peak levels of activity.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-4-1-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-4-1-580x207.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The residential construction component is further broken down into three components: houses, other residential (units) and alterations and additions, including conversions. Unit construction work done reached a record high of $6.8 billion on the back of the biggest unit construction boom on record. </p>
<p>While unit construction activity continues to rise, the $7.7 billion in work done for houses is down -7.1 percent from its recent peak in March 2015 at $8.3 billion.  The value of alterations and additions completed was recorded at $2.0 billion over the quarter down -6.9 percent from its $2.1 billion peak over the September 2011 quarter.  It is anticipated work done for houses will continue to trend lower while unit work should trend higher over the next few quarters before starting to fall. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the direction of alterations and additions is unclear but there could be some scope for an increase over the coming quarters and years given how much equity some home owners have and the costs associated with moving home.</p>
<p>Residential construction has been a large contributor to economic growth over recent years however, it looks as if it is likely to start detracting from growth as construction activity moves through a peak. </p>
<p>Housing construction activity has already been fading for a year while unit activity continues to rise however, we anticipate that it too will turn within the next 12 months. With the resources boom and concurrent infrastructure investment boom so important to Australia’s prosperity coming out of the financial crisis as it faded, building activity became extremely important, particularly residential construction activity. </p>
<p>With the residential construction boom starting to fade we need the next economic driver to rise in order to offset the slowing in building activity. An increase in infrastructure investment would seem to be a prime candidate however, Governments may not be willing to invest the money. The next boom will seemingly need to come from somewhere else; potentially from the education, health and tourism sectors as the lower Australian dollar makes these sectors more globally competitive as well as increased consumption if households start to ease their rate of saving.</p>
<p> </p>
<div class="sharedaddy sd-sharing-enabled">
<em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em> </div>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

The value of construction work done for houses is falling with units likely to follow shortly: Cameron Kusher

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<p>Construction has commenced at QM Properties' luxury riverside project, Anthology New Farm, following $19 million in sales.</p>
<p>It includes the sale of all three penthouses, with the highest priced selling for $1.88 million.  </p>
<p>QM Properties has appointed McNab Constructions to build the Rothelowman designed building.</p>
<p>Located on tree-lined Moray Street, the building is expected to be complete by late 2020.</p>
<p>QM Properties Development Manager Glenn Rix said Anthology, which is six residential levels plus roof top facilities, comprises just 26 residences.</p>
<p>It is the first medium rise project to commence construction in New Farm this year.  </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/30/Anthology_Interior_Penthouse_Living_R005.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>"Anthology has appealed to owner occupiers looking to live in a boutique building in one of the most sought-after suburbs in Brisbane," Rix said.</p>
<p>"To achieve over 60% pre-sales before commencing construction is an excellent result."</p>
<p>Rix said QM has partnered with McNab Constructions because the company has an enviable reputation for delivery of high quality product across multiple market segments. </p>
<p>A mix of three bedroom apartments remain for sale from $1,125,000.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/30/Anthology_pool.jpg" alt=""> </p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Anthology New Farm commences construction with $19 million in sales

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data on residential construction work done has fallen in NSW in the December 2018 quarter.</p>
<p>Residential construction work done in NSW in the December 2018 quarter has fallen by $356,717,000 since the June quarter of 2018.</p>
<p>This represents a 5 per cent fall over 6 months and it looks like the graph is falling more over future quarters as the housing construction market slows down. Many Sydney developers are finding it very difficult to attract pre commitments from investors or owner occupiers for apartments in the current market.</p>
<p>While the drop in residential building construction is modest it needs to be seen against a big drop in approvals for apartments across NSW of 33 per cent over the last year.</p>
<p>The flow on from the banking Royal Commission that has slowed lending is continuing and the negative environment towards new development created by the state election on 23 March is contributing to the slow down.</p>
<p>The falling prices for houses and apartments in Sydney are also leading to purchasers putting off decisions until the market bottoms in the future.</p>
<p>The residential construction sector supports 300,000 jobs in NSW and continuing falling home production will begin to impact on the jobs in this sector.</p>
<p>The non-residential sector which is around a third of the size of the residential sector is more stable with NSW expenditure at $2,524,336,000 and Victoria at $2,349,161,000 trend and seasonally adjusted over the quarter.</p>
<p>On a per capita basis Victoria is spending more on residential construction with $894 per person followed by NSW at $816, Queensland at $578 and Western Australia at $348.</p>
<p>The Urban Taskforce is concerned that residential construction and approvals are now dropping and that whoever is elected to form government in NSW on 23 March will need to reverse these trends to maintain jobs in the industry.</p>
<p>The graphs below are based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics data. </p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/CJ%201.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/CJ%202.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p><em>CHRIS JOHNSON is the Urban Taskforce CEO </em></p>
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Residential construction falling in NSW: Chris Johnson

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<div id="post-body-5825783051489187345" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>The most timely JLL report showed that the residential construction pipeline is now shrinking fast on tighter lending criteria for developers and investors.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In time this will inevitably lead to tighter rental vacancies, especially as we head into and beyond the traditionally busy Christmas and New Year period, with more Airbnb offerings also set to eat into the rental market through this cycle. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the greatest volume of apartment construction through this cycle Sydney and Melbourne will be the last markets to know about the tightening (although when D-Day does come the presently record high population growth in these cities means that the tightening of rentals market may also be felt most acutely).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>We're already hearing more and more stories of failed or delayed settlements, so the slowing in supply could come about sooner than expected. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The initial impacts will be felt in Hobart, Canberra, Adelaide, and an array of rental markets around regional Australia.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, SQM's latest figures showed that rental vacancies had already fallen to the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/11/lowest-vacancies-since-early-2014" target="_blank">lowest level since 2014</a> by the end of last month, so the process is well underway.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The HIA forecast today in its National Outlook that housing starts will fall by more than 50,000 from the peak, noting (or lamenting) that:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>'APRA’s restrictions were designed to curb high risk lending practices but we are now seeing ordinary home buyers experience delays and constraints in accessing finance.'</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wxY4L0r9wvY/W_H50SPIkUI/AAAAAAAAs8A/nEtQ0ROLbqw-nzYBU5UQ6h7qiDj0VmVbACLcBGAs/s1600/HIA.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wxY4L0r9wvY/W_H50SPIkUI/AAAAAAAAs8A/nEtQ0ROLbqw-nzYBU5UQ6h7qiDj0VmVbACLcBGAs/s640/HIA.jpg" width="640" height="320" data-original-height="728" data-original-width="1454"></a></div>
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<div>Note that all of this is before Labor's proposed changes to negative gearing come about, which were originally designed to slow investor activity in the raging hot markets of 2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Arrivals hit record high</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS released its arrivals and departures figures for the month of September 2018 this morning, which showed permanent and long-term arrivals rising to 823,090 over the year to September. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This represents an increase of 6 per cent from a year earlier, and is the highest figure on record for Australia (the equivalent figure around the time of the Sydney Olympics was about 300,000, which is a measure of just how popular migration to Australia has become).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GgP_6qeACl4/W_IH3qhIk-I/AAAAAAAAs8Q/UA8Qz6OuBs4uLZfomR7yzd6SgnPhAQ3gACLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GgP_6qeACl4/W_IH3qhIk-I/AAAAAAAAs8Q/UA8Qz6OuBs4uLZfomR7yzd6SgnPhAQ3gACLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="796" data-original-width="1364"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
</div>
<div>Short-term arrivals into Australia have also boomed in recent years, rising to a record high of 9.2 million in September. </div>
<div>
<br>Interestingly the growth is no longer being driven by Chinese tourists, with a range of other countries picking up the mantle, including India.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9e36O96FObc/W_IIPQ4rEKI/AAAAAAAAs8Y/sauXuXL3M88cp9P4W5h8nuuXZV_WA_JCgCLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9e36O96FObc/W_IIPQ4rEKI/AAAAAAAAs8Y/sauXuXL3M88cp9P4W5h8nuuXZV_WA_JCgCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="352" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1447"></a></div>
<br>Education arrivals were also up by 5 per cent from a year earlier to a record high of 596,400.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BeHBJ35BtQ0/W_IKs0Qkn9I/AAAAAAAAs8s/XzTDMdxiWHs0kmY8ed9iJjFEdByWn8HGgCLcBGAs/s1600/Education.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BeHBJ35BtQ0/W_IKs0Qkn9I/AAAAAAAAs8s/XzTDMdxiWHs0kmY8ed9iJjFEdByWn8HGgCLcBGAs/s640/Education.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1357"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
</div>
<div>Finally, at the state level short-term arrivals were up by 4 per cent in New South Wales to 3.45 million for the year to September, but growth was stronger in Victoria (up 8 per cent to 2.3 million) and Queensland (up 8 per cent to 2 million).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BQ5Zsf2TBjQ/W_IIrT42XKI/AAAAAAAAs8g/vzjR8vNOBGA1kafBkeVaYabmGUZesD40gCLcBGAs/s1600/A4.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BQ5Zsf2TBjQ/W_IIrT42XKI/AAAAAAAAs8g/vzjR8vNOBGA1kafBkeVaYabmGUZesD40gCLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="358" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="1418"></a><br><br>Queensland was a little flattered here by the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/04/gc2018hockey" target="_blank">Commonwealth Games XXI</a>, held at Gold Coast earlier this year...although that all seems like a long time ago now!<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br>Both short- and long-term arrivals hit record highs for the year to September 2018, with accordingly significant implications for housing market demand over the year(s) ahead.<br><br>Australia's visa programme is tilted towards those aged under 30, so there are dramatic implications for rental market demand here as construction slows, as well as pent up demand for entrants to home ownership over the years ahead. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></div>
</div>
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Rental vacancies to tighten: Pete Wargent

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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Residential construction activity remains buoyant across select parts of Sydney, according to one industry expert, despite media discourse about the property market reaching an unsustainable peak.</span></p>
<p class="p2">Savills Australia’s Johnathon Broome, a <a href="http://www.savills.com.au/services-and-sectors/sales-and-investment/metropolitan-and-regional-sales.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2">Residential Site Sales</span></a> executive, maintains that strong demand continues for luxury residential development in suburban hotspots near the CBD. </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">“The inevitable downturn we are currently witnessing is dampening consumer sentiment regarding the residential sector but forward-looking drivers would suggest otherwise,” he said.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">According to <a href="http://www.savills.com.au/research/australian-research.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2">Savills Research</span></a>, Sydney has been the prime beneficiary of the ongoing surge in overseas migration into Australia throughout the past 10 years, boosting the city’s population to 5.1 million people as of August 2018.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">“New South Wales’ population grew at a rate of 1.4 percent throughout the year to March 2018, with approximately 113,000 people added to the state,” Mr Broome said.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">“The majority of this was due to the ongoing immigration cycle, with more than 85,000 overseas migrants settling in Sydney over the same period – accounting for about 40 percent of all overseas migrants who settled in Australia.”</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/8/2%20Greenwich%20Road%20Greenwich%20-%20CGI%20-%20aerial%20copy.jpg" alt=""><br>CGI of 2 Greenwich Road, Greenwich.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Mr Broome went on to say that while net interstate migration for the state has been notably negative, resident migration out of Sydney has been concentrated in three Sydney districts – the inner south-west, the eastern suburbs and Parramatta.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">“Suburbs on the Lower North Shore remain prime destinations for residents and overseas migrants alike, with developments in St Leonards and Crows Nest earmarked for more than 4,600 new dwellings throughout the next five years,” he said.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">“Ongoing changes to residential zonings across North Shore suburbs, which have traditionally had low-density zonings in place, mean that these districts remain on the radar for both developers and residents, keeping population growth forecasts for these areas buoyant.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">“Developers have remained active in these suburbs, particularly showing strong interest in more palatable boutique development sites, which appeal to the still-thriving owner-occupier market.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">“There have been a number of recent off-the-plan sales on the Lower North Shore selling for more than $40,000 per square metre, in addition to the recent sale of a penthouse in Milsons Point for more than $61,000 per square metre.”</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Savills Australia is currently marketing two high-end residential development sites on the Lower North Shore.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The first site is located at 2 Greenwich Road, Greenwich, for circa 70 apartments (subject to council approval), with the majority of apartments from the third floor upward positioned to receive Sydney Harbour Bridge views.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The second site is located at 26 Ridge Street, North Sydney, a commercial building with the potential to be converted into 10 full or split-level apartments (subject to council approval) with a northerly aspect, and within 300 metres of the new Victoria Cross metro station.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/8/26%20Ridge%20Street%20North%20Sydney%20-%20CGI%20-%20ground%20copy.jpg" alt=""><br>CGI of 26 Ridge Street, North Sydney.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Mr Broome said North Sydney and its surrounding suburbs were “set to become even more attractive to residents, investors and retailers”, as the multi-billion-dollar construction investment into infrastructure spending on roads and transport hubs increased the precinct’s connectivity to the rest of the city.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">“We have already seen a wave of residential developments in the area inject life into the CBD’s forgotten sibling, with the Ward Street redevelopment plan set to revitalise the suburb’s 100,000sq m retail precinct,” he said.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In the five-year period to 2016, Savills research shows that the population in the Greenwich and North Sydney areas grew by 10 percent and 12 percent respectively, notably more than the growth rate for Greater Sydney.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">“Willoughby and North Sydney councils are positioned to maintain their strong population growth figures over the coming years, and the savvy developers looking to purchase in this market will continue to do well,” Mr Broome said.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">“These areas have always attracted younger, more educated, professional workers with median single and family incomes significantly above Sydney’s and the nation’s averages, which has meant that the demand for property has far outstripped supply and will continue to do so in the years to come.”</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1"><em>Savills is a leading global real estate service provider offering the full spectrum of services from strategic advice to managing assets and projects and transacting deals. Johnathon Broome is an Executive in Savills Residential Sites Sales. To learn more about Savills, visit </em><a href="http://www.savills.com.au/" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>savills.com.au</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Residential construction activity remains buoyant in Sydney

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<p>Construction activity saw a rebound in the value of new residential development applications captured over February, according to CoreLogic.</p>
<p>The combined value of development proposals for February was $12.6 billion; almost half of which was residential.</p>
<p>Residential application values over February totalled $6.1 billion, which represents a 64% month on month increase.</p>
<p>For new residential projects captured by CoreLogic, New South Wales saw a $3.5 billion application, entailing works for the Wilton North Precinct (above).</p>
<p>The project encompasses the construction of 5,500 homes, with 5,000 square metres of retail, as well as playing fields, open space, local centres and schools. The project is being led by Bradcorp Holdings Pty Ltd.</p>
<p>CoreLogic commercial research analyst Eliza Owen said new deals have developers seeing long term growth in Sydney's housing market.</p>
<p>"The high value, large scale residential development applications are surprising, given our indices data is indicating a decline in Sydney dwelling values over the year," she said.</p>
<p>“Clearly, the Western Sydney City Deal and the vision from the Greater Sydney Commission has developers anticipating long term growth in Sydney’s housing market.”</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/13/VALUE.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The Wilton North Precinct proposal is within the Wollondilly Shire Council, which in turn is in ‘The Western Parkland City’, as outlined by the Greater Sydney Commission.</p>
<p>Earlier this month Malcom Turnbull launched the Western Sydney City Deal with council leaders, and NSW state premier Gladys Berejiklian.</p>
<p>City Deals are an initiative for all levels of government, the private sector and the community to work together, to create large scale construction projects and economic reform.</p>
<p>Among the various employment initiatives outlined for Western Sydney in the City Deals agreement, a ‘North-South’ rail link was announced, which would link south-west Sydney with St Marys station, via the future Badgery’s Creek Airport.The project currently has an approximate construction value estimate of $20 billion.</p>
<p>The application for over 5,000 new dwellings in Sydney coincides with the first annual decline in the Sydney CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index since August 2012.</p>
<p>In the 12 months to February, the index declined 0.5%, indicating values across the city are starting to fall. However, the plans being laid out for Greater Sydney may be prompting counter-cyclical behaviour among developers, who are betting on long-term growth in the metropolitan area.</p>
<p>CoreLogic commercial research analyst Eliza Owen noted the overall construction value of new project was below the five year.</p>
<p>“Despite the bullish residential development applications in Sydney, the combined construction value of all new projects captured over February is below the five year average of $13.6 billion per month, and was also substantially lower than the $18 billion recorded in January.” </p>
<p>While development applications were slightly subdued in February, CoreLogic captured 713 projects moving into the construction stages over the month. This is lower than the five year average of 1,022 projects per month, but is 11.4% higher than the number that moved into construction in the previous month.</p>
<p>The construction value of projects that commenced over February increased 20.2% on the previous month, to $5.1 billion</p>
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Residential construction activity rebounds in February: CoreLogic

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 2.5% to 97.9 in September from 95.5 in August. </p>
<p>The consumer mood remains downbeat with September marking the tenth consecutive month that pessimists have outnumbered optimists.</p>
<p>Pressures on family finances, concerns around interest rates, deteriorating housing affordability and rising energy prices have all weighed on confidence in 2017. These factors are more than offsetting the boost from an improved outlook for jobs particularly when a stronger labour market has not been associated with increased wages growth.</p>
<p>The survey detail shows family finances remain a key area of concern. The ‘finances vs a year ago’ sub-index rose 6.1% but was coming from a very weak read in August (a three year low). Meanwhile the sub-index tracking expectations for ‘finances over the next 12 months’ fell 2.1%, reversing all of last month’s gain.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/13/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-13%20at%2011.02.45%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/13/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-13%20at%2011.02.45%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Consumer expectations for the economy showed more consistent gains. The ‘economic conditions, next 12 months’ sub-index rose 2.7% and the ‘economic conditions, next 5 years’ sub-index posted a robust 5.1% gain.</p>
<p>While both are still in pessimistic territory below 100 they are now marginally above long run average levels. The improved but still ‘lukewarm’ sentiment towards the economy likely reflects the somewhat mixed picture from recent data including the June quarter national accounts which showed a reasonably solid 0.8% gain in GDP but subdued annual growth and notable areas of weakness around household incomes and consumer spending.</p>
<p>Consumers were slightly more positive towards major purchases, the ‘time to buy major a household item’ sub-index rising 2.1% in September. However again the rise was small and, coming off a weak August read, the sub-index remains well below its long run average.</p>
<p>The September survey included additional questions on news recall that provide further insight into the factors shaping sentiment. Interestingly, recall levels have fallen significantly over the last three years suggesting consumers may be getting less exposure to news in general.</p>
<p>In September the topic areas with the highest recall were ‘economic conditions’ (21%); ‘budget and taxation’ (17%); interest rates (16%); inflation (16%); jobs (15%); and international conditions (12%). While news on all fronts was viewed as unfavourable, consumers rated news on inflation and international conditions as much more negative than three months ago – likely reflecting sharp increases in energy costs and developments around North Korea. The only material improvement was around jobs where news was viewed much less negatively than in June.</p>
<p>The improved labour market situation was also broadly apparent in the Westpac Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index. Although the index edged up 0.9% in the month, at 133.6 it is still down 4.8% from its June level and the second lowest reading since 2011 (recall that lower reads mean more consumers expect unemployment to fall in the year ahead).</p>
<p>Consumer views around housing were mixed in September. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index rose 0.8% but at 95.2 remains at very low levels by historical standards. State indexes continue to vary widely, ranging from a very weak read in NSW (81.3) to a strongly positive result in WA (130.4). Consistent falls in prices in WA over recent years may be finally restoring affordability to attractive levels.</p>
<p>The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations dipped 2.8% but at 141.5 remains high overall. Of those consumers with a view, 57% expect prices to rise in the year ahead, 31% expect no change and 12% expect prices to decline.</p>
<p>Responses to additional questions on the ‘wisest place for savings’ continued to indicate risk aversion. Nearly two thirds of consumers still favour safe options – deposits, superannuation or paying down debt – with only 10.5% nominating real estate, a new 40 year low, and 9% nominating shares. More consumers favour ‘pay down debt’ (23.5%) than real estate and shares combined.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/13/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-13%20at%2011.18.40%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/13/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-13%20at%2011.18.40%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The Reserve Bank Board next meets on October 3. There is no doubt that the Board will continue to leave the cash rate on hold.</p>
<p>Of more interest is the medium term outlook for interest rates. While those commentators favouring rate hikes next year point to record business conditions we are starting to see a considerable gap open up between business conditions and business confidence. Persistent weak consumer sentiment, consistent with weak consumer demand, may be worrying businesses around the sustainability of current strong conditions.</p>
<p>From our perspective prospects for consumer spending and residential construction appear soft. We do not expect that economic conditions in Australia in 2018 will be consistent with the need for the Bank to raise rates. </p>
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<p><span><em>BILL EVANS</em><em> is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.</em> </span></p>
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Time to buy a dwelling index up, still at very low levels: Bill Evans

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<p>Sales slid in both the detached housing and multi unit market during June according to the latest New Home Sales Report from the Housing industry Association.</p>
<p>According to the HIA, new home sales in Australia’s largest states hit their lowest level since October 2013.</p>
<p>Shane Garrett, HI senior economist said during June, new home sales declined by 6.9 percent compared with the previous month and were 11.9 percent lower than the same period last year.</p>
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<p><span>“These results support HIA’s latest set of forecasts that new dwelling commencements are set to </span><span>continue easing until late 2018," he said.</span></p>
<p><span>“</span><span>The reduction in sales of both detached houses and multi-units during the month of June continues the trend underway since sales peaked in early 2015. </span></p>
<p><span>“</span><span>The fall in sales needs to be considered against the backdrop of residential building coming off a record peak of activity in 2016. We project that residential building will still be operating at a historically high level</span><span>."</span></p>
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<p><span>The reduction in new home sales during June 2017 was made up of a 5.8 percent reduction in new detached house sales and a 10.7 percent fall in new multi-unit sales. </span></p>
<p><span>According to the HIA there were considerable differences in sales in June around the states with new detached house sales rising both in Victoria (+4.1 percent) and Western Australia (+21.1 percent). However, sales fell in New South Wales (-9.7 percent), Queensland (-29.3 percent) and South Australia (-23.7 percent) during the month. </span></p>
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

New home sales hit lowest level since 2013

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Total new lending commitments (housing, personal, commercial and lease finance) fell by 3.1 per cent in May to a 3-month low. Commitment are down 0.5 per cent over the year.</p>
<p>Trends: In trend terms, loans for alterations and additions of homes (renovations) hit 7-year highs. Personal loans hit a 141⁄2-year low in May. Annual lending to buy land hit record highs.</p>
<p>Airfares: In smoothed terms, discount airfares are up by 6.2 per cent on a year with restricted economy fares up 4.9 per cent and business airfares up 2.5 per cent.</p>
<p>Chinese trade: In June, exports were up 11.3 per cent on a year ago (forecast +8.7 per cent). Imports were up 17.2 per cent (forecast +13.1 per cent). The trade surplus rose from US$40.81 billion to US$42.77bn.</p>
<p>The lending figures have implications for builders, housing-reliant businesses, finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on consumer and business spending. The Chinese trade data can affect currency markets and provide insights for exporters and importers.</p>
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<p>What does it all mean?</p>
<p>New data shows that renovation loans hit 7-year highs in trend terms in May, suggesting that more people have decided to stay put and add extra rooms or revamp kitchens and bathrooms. Still others may be sprucing up their homes for sale, following the advice on TV makeover shows. Whether it is the purchase of a new property or updating an existing abode, the family home is the centre of the universe.</p>
<p>While some have been taking out bigger loans to buy homes, it is clear that consumers more generally are paring back other forms of debt. Figures out yesterday show that credit card debt continues to shrink when compared with a year ago and non-housing loan commitments are at the lowest levels for over 14 years. High and rising debt tends to get plenty of coverage, not so the more conservative attitude to debt which is actually the more dominating trend.</p>
<p>If consumer balance sheets were in such bad shape, more Aussie would be speaking to banks about consolidating or refinancing existing debt. Rather, debt consolidation and refinancing accounts for just 20 per cent of personal lending commitments – a 16 1⁄2-year low.</p>
<p>Inflation is starting to creep back into consciousness. New data shows airfares are lifting with discount fares over six per cent higher on a year ago. And the Melbourne Institute reported today that its measure of inflation expectations ((30-percent trimmed mean measure), rose to a 4-year high of 4.4 per cent in July.</p>
<p>What do the figures show?</p>
<p>Lending Finance:</p>
<p>Total new lending commitments (housing, personal, commercial and lease finance) fell by 3.1 per cent in May to a 3-month low. Commitment are down 0.5 per<br> cent over the year.</p>
<p>All housing finance rose by 3.1 per cent in May with construction and purchase up 2.9 per cent and alterations and additions up 10.1 per cent.<span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
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<p>In trend terms, loans for alterations &amp; additions hit 7-year highs in May.</p>
<p>Commercial finance fell by 6.4 per cent in May after falling 6.1 per cent in April and rising by 14.2 per cent in March. Within commercial commitments, fixed lending fell by 4.9 per cent while revolving credit fell by 12.5 per cent. Commercial loans are up 0.4 per cent on a year ago.</p>
<p>Personal finance fell by 0.5 per cent in May – the fifth straight decline. Fixed lending commitments rose by 1.2 per cent, while revolving credit commitments fell by 3.1 per cent. Personal loans are down 18.4 per cent on a year ago. In trend terms personal loans are at 141⁄2-year lows.</p>
<p>Lease finance rose by 1.1 per cent in May to stand 25.4 per cent higher over the year.</p>
<p>Chinese trade:</p>
<p>In June, exports were up 11.3 per cent on a year ago (forecast +8.7 per cent). Imports were up 17.2 per cent (forecast +13.1 per cent). The trade surplus rose from US$40.81 billion to US$42.77 billion.</p>
<p>Airfares:</p>
<p>The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) reports that business class airfares fell by 0.1 per cent in July after falling 0.9 per cent in June. Business class airfares still stand 2.2 per cent higher than a year ago. In smoothed terms, business class airfares are up 2.5 per cent on the year.</p>
<p>“Restricted economy” airfares rose by 1.9 per cent in July after lifting 0.8 per cent in June. Restricted economy airfares are up 5.8 per cent on a year ago – the strongest growth in 18 months. In smoothed terms, restricted economy fares were up by 4.5 per cent on a year ago – the strongest growth in 17 months.</p>
<p>Discount fares fell by 2.3 per cent in July after falling by 4.9 per cent in June and rising by 8.3 per cent in May. Clearly discount fares have been volatile in recent months. Discount fares are up 5.9 per cent over the year. In smoothed terms (13 month moving average), discount fares are up 6.2 per cent.</p>
<p>Inflation expectations:</p>
<p>According to the Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations, the expected inflation rate (30-per cent trimmed mean measure), rose by 0.8 percentage points to 4.4 per cent in July from 3.6 per cent in June.</p>
<p>What is the importance of the economic data?</p>
<p>Lending Finance is released monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and contains figures on new housing, personal, commercial and lease finance commitments. The importance of the data lies in what it reveals about the appropriateness of interest rate settings, confidence and spending levels in the economy.</p>
<p>China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly economic statistics around mid-month. Quarterly GDP data is released around the 19th of January, April, July and October. China’s Customs Office releases trade data, and the People’s Bank of China releases financial statistics, around the 10th of each month. China is </p>
<p>Australia’s largest trading partner and changes in the Chinese economic have major implications for the Aussie economy.</p>
<p>The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) releases regular aviation data. The BITRE releases the Australian Domestic Airline Activity publication each month as well as the Domestic Air Fares publication. The data provides insights on airline activity as well as trends in the broader Australian economy. If more people are flying, then it suggests businesses are more active and/or consumers are more confident.</p>
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<p>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</p>
<p>Consumers and businesses aren’t keen to take on new debt. The main exceptions being loans to buy or renovate homes or to buy a new or used car. In total though, personal lending is the lowest in 141⁄2 years. And for the past six months both commercial and lease loans have been shrinking when compared with a year ago.</p>
<p>Inflation is starting to return to our consciousness. While it is still early days, it is a trend worth watching as higher inflation rates naturally mean higher cash rates.</p>
<p>The latest Chinese data is encouraging with both exports and imports well up on a year ago and the trade surplus expanding as well as beating forecasts. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and a strong Chinese economy is in our interests. </p>
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<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>Craig James is the chief economist at </em><a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx"><span class="s2"><em>CommSec</em></span></a><em>.</em> </span></p>
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