Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Reserve Bank

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank has maintained its “neutral stance” – meaning that rate hikes are as likely as rate cuts in the period ahead.
In practice though no change in rates is likely.
What does it all mean?
The Reserve Bank Board is comfortably on the interest rate sidelines. Much would need to go wrong at home and/or abroad for the Reserve Bank to cut rates again. At the same time, rate hikes are off the agenda. In essence policymakers are giving households and business more time to work with record low interest rates, and forget about rate movement and get on with spending, hiring and investing.
There are signs that the economy is lifting from its early 2017 malaise. Retail activity is lifting, unemployment is at 4-year lows, job vacancies are at 61⁄2-year highs and importantly record home building and a large pipeline of infrastructure spending will support the economy over 2017.
The key is how business investment plans evolve over the coming year. And most of the indicators suggest that the future outlook is encouraging. Corporate Australia is being supported by strong business conditions, upbeat confidence, high capacity use, and healthy profits – all conducive to a lift in hiring and investment over the coming year.  
No surprises there are still a couple of ‘hot button’ issues to monitor at present: home prices; household debt levels, subdued wage growth and the Aussie dollar. And while policymakers remain upbeat about the medium term prospects for the economy there is a clear understanding that “consumption growth remains subdued” largely due to “slow growth in real wages and high levels of household debt”. 
Importantly the RBA reiterated its view that while the “growth in housing debt has outpaced the slow growth in household incomes. The recent supervisory measures should help address the risks associated with high and rising levels of household indebtedness”.
Perspectives on interest rates 
The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate at 1.50 per cent. The previous move was a rate cut in August 2016 (25 basis points). There have now been 12 rate cuts since November 2011, with the Reserve Bank cutting rates from 4.75 per cent to 1.50 per cent. 
The Reserve Bank had previously lifted rates seven times from October 2009 to November 2010 – a total of 1.75 percentage points, from 3.00 per cent to 4.75 per cent. 
What are the implications of today’s decision? 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/05/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-05%20at%208.07.08%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/05/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-05%20at%208.07.08%20AM.png" alt="">
 
There is no urgency for rates to move in any direction. On the positive side of the ledger are record corporate profits; strong business conditions; a lift in infrastructure spending; firm home building; and the prospect of further job growth.
On the other side of the ledger, wage and price growth is low; consumer spending is fluky; home price growth is slowing; and the Aussie dollar remains firm.
The Reserve Bank is expected to maintain its neutral policy stance for an extended period.We expect the Reserve Bank to stay on the interest rate sidelines for the 2017 year.
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/">CommSec</a> 
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Reserve Bank alert but not alarmed

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GUEST OBSERVER
Higher home prices: The Bureau of Statistics reports that Australian home prices rose by 2.2 per cent in the March quarter to stand 10.2 per cent higher over the year.
More homes: At the end of March there were 39,800 more homes than at the end of December. But the number of NSW homes rose by just 7,600 – the smallest quarterly gain in three years.
Reserve Bank Board minutes: The minutes from the June 6 Board meeting shows the Reserve Bank weighing up a raft of factors including the Federal Budget, signs of improvement in retail spending and reports of localised labour shortages feeding into higher wages.
Consumer confidence eases: The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating eased from an 8- week high of 112.9 to 112.4 in the week to June 18.
The Reserve Bank Board minutes provides guidance on interest rate settings. Consumer confidence data is important for retailers. The residential property price data is important for housing-dependent businesses.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-21%20at%208.18.33%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-21%20at%208.18.33%20AM.png" alt="">
What does it all mean?
It is taking some time for homes to be built to meet the demands of the population. That is particularly the case in NSW where the number of homes lifted by just 7,600 in the March quarter – the smallest gain in three years. Based on recent trends, the NSW population may have lifted by around 30,000 people in the March quarter. As the Reserve Bank has observed, the preference for apartment building is creating delays for home supply to bridge the gap with demand.
The wealth held in Aussie homes has passed $6,600 billion, up almost 11 per cent over the past year. While many bemoan poor housing affordability, wealth levels continue to soar for the two-thirds of Aussies that own homes or are paying them off.
The Reserve Bank Board has given no hints that rates will change any time soon. Board members considered all manner of factors at the June meeting although it is clear that the housing are job markets are being watched carefully. Since the meeting, data shows stronger job markets but softer home prices, further entrenching the Reserve Bank on the interest rate sidelines.
Consumer confidence remains just OK. Aussie consumers still believe that it is a good time to buy a major household item like a fridge or TV, but they are fretting over bills like council and utility rates and insurance premiums. And then there is the on-going adjustment to the new reality that annual wage growth will be closer to 2 per cent rather than 3- 4 per cent as in the past. 
What do the figures show?
Reserve Bank Board minutes:
Last paragraph: “The Board continued to judge that developments in the labour and housing markets warranted careful monitoring. Taking into account all the available information, including that year-ended growth in output was expected to have slowed in the March quarter, the Board judged that holding the accommodative stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.”
“ wage growth and inflation were expected to increase gradually as the economy strengthened.”
“ economic growth was still expected to increase gradually over the next couple of years to a little above 3 per cent per annum.”
“Over recent times, with interest rates at low levels, the Board has set monetary policy to support the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom, while also paying close attention to trends in household borrowing and related financial stability considerations. Members discussed the effect of monetary policy decisions on financial stability and on future inflation, employment and output. They also discussed the role that prudential supervision can play in promoting financial stability. In view of this, members acknowledged the importance of a strong relationship between the Bank and other regulators, particularly APRA.”
“According to liaison and survey data, retail trading conditions had remained challenging, although they had appeared to have improved a little since the start of the year, and this assessment had been supported by the large rise in retail sales in April.”
“Liaison suggested that, while wage growth is likely to remain subdued for some time yet, there had been isolated reports of localised and skills-specific labour shortages feeding into higher wages.”
“The Australian Government Budget had reported little change to the expected cash deficits over the next few years and, as a result, had had little effect on the Bank's near-term outlook for the Australian economy. Some new large infrastructure projects had been announced as a part of the Budget, but most of that spending would occur after 2019.”
Residential property prices
The Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released its Residential Property Price indexes.
“The price index for residential properties for the weighted average of the eight capital cities rose 2.2 per cent in the March quarter 2017. The index rose 10.2 per cent through the year to the March quarter 2017.
The capital city residential property price indexes rose in Sydney (+3.0 per cent), Melbourne (+3.1 per cent), Adelaide (+1.5 per cent), Canberra (+2.8 per cent) and Hobart (+3.4 per cent) and fell in Perth (-1.0 per cent) and Darwin (-0.9 per cent). Brisbane was flat (0.0 per cent).
Annually, residential property prices rose in Sydney (+14.4 per cent), Melbourne (+13.4 per cent), Hobart (+11.3 per cent), Canberra (+8.9 per cent), Adelaide (+5.0 per cent) and Brisbane (+3.5 per cent) and fell in Darwin (-5.9 per cent) and Perth (-3.5 per cent).
The ABS notes that as at March 2017 there were 9.858 million homes in Australia. In the March quarter the number of homes rose by 39,800 with an extra 11,200 homes in Victoria, 9,600 homes in Queensland and 7,600 homes in NSW.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-21%20at%208.19.43%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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“The total value of residential dwellings in Australia was $6,602,132.3 million at the end of the March quarter 2017, rising $163,122.9m over the quarter.
The mean price of residential dwellings rose $13,900 to $669,700 and the number of residential dwellings rose by 39,800 to 9,858,400 in the March quarter 2017
Consumer sentiment
The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating eased from 112.9 to 112.4 in the week to June 18.
But confidence is down 3.3 per cent over the year and below the average of 113.2 since 2014. 
Three of the five components of the index rose in the latest week:
<ul>
<li> The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down from +9 to zero;</li>
<li> The estimate of family finances over the next year was unchanged at +23;</li>
<li> Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up from -7 to -6;</li>
<li> Economic conditions over the next 5 years was up from +1 to +4;</li>
<li>The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +38 to +41:</li>
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What is the importance of the economic data?
The Reserve Bank releases minutes of its monthly Board meeting a fortnight after the event. The minutes give a guide to Reserve Bank thinking on interest rate settings.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides quarterly data on residential prices. The figures provide further perspectives on the state of the housing purchase sector.
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
CommSec expects the Reserve Bank to remain on the interest rate sidelines for an extended period.
It takes time to build apartments – especially in light of the more common high-rise developments that dot the Sydney landscape. The homes are coming but the gap between demand and supply is closing only slowly. The longer it takes for the homes to be built, the greater the upward pressure on prices. The risk is that housing supply will come on with a rush, leading to a messy correction of home prices.
According to the Bureau of Statistics, sales of combined houses and apartments in Sydney in the March quarter were the lowest in 14 years. That is remarkable in a city where population is growing faster than the average rate over the past decade.
The Reserve Bank Board has highlighted the importance of the ‘third wheel’ – that is, regulatory policy to complement monetary and fiscal policy. But no arm of policy is precise in its impact on the economy so regulators must stand ready to change policy when required. 
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Not enough homes, rates firmly on hold: Craig James

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Minutes of June 2017 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board

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The June RBA chart pack highlights the stats influencing the central bank.
The following charts illustrates what the Reserve Bank of Australia knows about Australia's household finances, housing prices and residential building approvals.
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RBA's June chart pack reveals house price movements

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Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 percent.
The broad-based pick-up in the global economy is continuing. Labour markets have tightened further in many countries and forecasts for global growth have been revised up since last year. Above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. In China, growth is being supported by increased spending on infrastructure and property construction, with the high level of debt continuing to present a medium-term risk. Commodity prices are generally higher than they were a year ago, providing a boost to Australia's national income. The prices of iron ore and coal, however, have declined over recent months as expected, unwinding some of the earlier increases.
Headline inflation rates in most countries have moved higher over the past year, partly reflecting the higher commodity prices. Core inflation remains low, as do long-term bond yields. Further increases in US interest rates are expected over the year ahead and there is no longer an expectation of additional monetary easing in other major economies. Financial markets have been functioning effectively.
Domestically, the transition to lower levels of mining investment following the mining investment boom is almost complete. Business conditions have improved and capacity utilisation has increased. Business investment has picked up in those parts of the country not directly affected by the decline in mining investment. Year-ended GDP growth is expected to have slowed in the March quarter, reflecting the quarter-to-quarter variation in the growth figures. Looking forward, economic growth is still expected to increase gradually over the next couple of years to a little above 3 per cent.  
Indicators of the labour market remain mixed. Employment growth has been stronger over recent months, although growth in total hours worked remains weak. The various forward-looking indicators point to continued growth in employment over the period ahead. Wage growth remains low and this is likely to continue for a while yet. Inflation is expected to increase gradually as the economy strengthens. Slow growth in real wages is restraining growth in household consumption.
The outlook continues to be supported by the low level of interest rates. The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment.
Conditions in the housing market vary considerably around the country. Prices have been rising briskly in some markets, although there are some signs that these conditions are starting to ease. In other markets, prices are declining. In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years. Rent increases are the slowest for two decades. Growth in housing debt has outpaced the slow growth in household incomes. The recent supervisory measures should help address the risks associated with high and rising levels of indebtedness. Lenders have also announced increases in mortgage rates, particularly those paid by investors and on interest-only loans.
Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2017/mr-17-12" target="_blank">The RBA statement</a>.
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First signs housing price growth was easing: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's June 2017 statement

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At its meeting today, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 percent.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe said that conditions in the housing market vary considerably around the country.
"Prices have been rising briskly in some markets, although there are some signs that these conditions are starting to ease," he said.
"In other markets, prices are declining. In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years."
Tim Lawless, CoreLogic head of research, said while the cash rate has remained on hold in June, financial markets are starting to lean more towards a cut in official interest rates rather than a stable rate setting.
"Importantly, one of the key barriers to rate cuts - the hot housing markets of Sydney and Melbourne - have shown signs of slowing," he said.
"CoreLogic has reported only one month of negative dwelling value movements, albeit during the seasonally weak month of May.
"However, if this recent slowing develops into a more sustained trend, the RBA may be able to consider alternative scenarios to a steady cash rate.
"The last time rates were cut, which was May and August of 2016, the housing market reignited with capital gains accelerating and investors surging back into the market.
"The situation is very different now, with new macro prudential regulations dampening investment demand while mortgage rates have stepped higher, particularly for investors and interest only borrowers.
"The housing market will be the subject of much scrutiny over coming months, particularly the Sydney and Melbourne markets where CoreLogic figures show dwelling values have risen by approximately 75 percent and 55 percent respectively over the past five years.
"A longer trend of slowing value growth and overall softer housing conditions will lend further support to the notion that house price growth has moved through its cyclical peak and may take some pressure away from the RBA to keep rates steady especially given that other sectors of the economy other than housing seeming need interest rates set at a lower level to what they currently are.”
AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver took to Twitter.
"RBA on hold as exp: slower Q1 growth but to still exps rise to 3% growth; slower growth in wages constraining holds; signs of easing in Syd &amp; Melbourne," he tweeted.
"RBA <a class="twitter-hashtag pretty-link js-nav" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RBA?src=hash" data-query-source="hashtag_click"></a>bias still looks neutral overall. Our view remains rising risk of another rate cut given soft consumer, wages &amp; inflation. Housing to slow."
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RBA holds again as brisk housing price growth starts to ease: June 2017

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With the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) clamping down on interest-only loans, experts and economists think interest-only borrowers may have a hard time refinancing to principal and interest loans, according to finder.com.au, the comparison website.   All 33 experts and economists in the monthly <a href="https://www.finder.com.au/rba-cash-rate" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">finder.com.au RBA survey</a>, which is the largest of its kind in Australia, are expecting the cash rate to hold at 1.5 percent at today's board meeting.   When asked about future cash rate movements (regardless of when it will happen), the majority (80 percent, 24 of 30) of panellists think the next move will be a rise.    Of the minority who are expecting a cash rate fall, most of this group believe the rate will dip no lower than 1.00 percent. However, Stephen Koukoulas of Market Economics and Jordan Eliseo of ABC Bullion believe the rate will fall even lower to 0.75 percent and 0.50 percent respectively.
"The RBA continues to place far too much weight on Sydney and Melbourne housing markets and not enough on the rest of the economy which is crying out for lower interest rates," Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics said.   The majority of experts and economists (74 percent) expect the next rise to come in 2018. However, some are indicating that a rise may be due sooner with four respondents anticipating a rise between October and December this year.   As APRA is aiming to keep all new interest-only loans below 30% of total new residential mortgages, most panellists (57 percent) surveyed on this topic believe borrowers switching from interest-only to principal and interest, or those whose fixed interest-only terms are nearing expiring, may have a hard time refinancing.   Graham Cooke, Insights Analyst, at finder.com.au, says with potential rate rises in store, interest-only borrowers may be hit the hardest.   “Borrowers shifting from an interest-only loan to a principal and interest loan may be struck with a higher repayment initially, and they may find it difficult to service the principal portion, but ultimately it’s important to pay down the principal of the loan.   “With the next rate move likely to be in a positive direction, and with many lenders already lifting product rates, interest-only mortgage holders will be the most directly affected,” he says.   For example, for a $800,000 interest-only loan with 4 percent interest, repayments will be $2,667 versus $3,819 for those borrowers also paying down the principal.    However, increasing the interest rate from 4 percent to 6 percent would up the interest-only loan repayments by $1,333 per month, yet the principal and interest repayments would rise by only $997.   “To shield yourself from rate rises, look at your budget and find ways to free up your cash flow so you can cope with higher repayments. For instance, you may decide to consolidate personal debt to save on account fees or ongoing interest charges,” he says.   Regarding Standard &amp; Poor (S&amp;P)’s recent downgrading of 23 Australian financial institutions, most panellists (15, 63 percent) thought S&amp;P’s perception of the increased risk of a sharp fall in property prices was not justified. However, nine (37 percent) disagreed.   “We’re looking at a higher-interest future. So it’s time to start planning for higher interest rates," Mr Cooke says.    “Interest-only investors are reliant on prices continuously going up, but we’re starting to see prices either slow or fall in some cities across the country, so ensure you have a 2-3% buffer to cushion yourself against any future rate rises." Here’s what our experts had to say:
 Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (Hold): "There is no compelling case to move rates in either direction at this stage. Despite generally soft economic data (today's retail sales notwithstanding), we expect the RBA will wait to see further evidence that the Australian property market is indeed cooling, before cutting rates in the second half of this year."   Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Hold): "Not enough has changed since the last meeting when the RBA actually revised up slightly its growth outlook."   John Hewson, ANU (Hold): "Insufficient info so monitoring data."   Alison Booth, Australian National University (Hold): "The fundamentals are little changed."   Darryl Gobbett, Baillieu Holst (Hold): "The RBA will still be concerned about systemic stability being possibly adversely impacted by increased debt if rates were cut while likely seeing little benefit to increased growth. Uncertainty about impacts of  a rate rise with the current economic, property and political uncertainties put well off the possibility of a rate rise."   Peter Munckton, Bank of Queensland (Hold): "The economy is improving, and the RBA would prefer not to reduce rates."   Dr Kishti Sen, BIS Oxford Economics (Hold): "The Reserve Bank won't cut rates because it won't improve business investment. Business investment remains weak despite historically low financing rates. In addition, recent increases in the residential property market have been too high. They won't raise rates as underlying inflation is expected to remain close to 2% over the next two years."   Paul Dales, Capital Economics (Hold): "The RBA is willing to put up with underlying inflation being below its 2-3% target range as long as the unemployment rate remains below 6% and as long as it is still worried about the strong housing market and high level of household debt. In other words, lower interest rates may just exacerbate the housing issue."   Michael Blythe , CBA (Hold): "House price concerns vs low inflation."   Savanth Sebastian, CommSec (Hold): "RBA comfortable about the medium term outlook for Australia. Is likely to keep a close eye on how household consumption evolves over the rest of this year."   Dr Andrew Wilson, Domain Group (Hold): "Although case growing for a cut in rates Bank still more likely to continue with optimistic steady settings - but decision should be closer than recent as ANOTHER negative quarter of GDP looms."   Scott Morgan, Greater Bank (Hold): "Current data indicates that there will not be a change."   Mark Brimble, Griffith University (Hold): "The outlook is weak for the next 12-24 months and thus the bias is for the economy needing more support.  The financial institutions have not helped by pushing rates up, however this has assisted with APRA's desire to reduce property and credit risks.  All in all, the RBA is likely to sit on its hands again."   Shane Garrett, Housing Industry Association (Hold): "Inflation is at comfortable rate, growth does not require further support at this time. The foreign exchange rate is balanced."   Paul Bloxham, HSBC (Hold): "Because underlying inflation is past its trough."   Alex Joiner, IFM Investors (Hold): "There is no justification for a rate move. If anything economic performance and risks still suggest there should be an easing bias and property markets/debt accumulation suggest a tightening one. The former argument remains stronger in my view."   Michael Witts, ING Bank (Hold): "The RBA would be happy with the current state of the economy and will await until the release of Q1 GDP data before considering interest rate changes."   Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Hold): "The latest data suggests subdued house price easing is occurring in major markets, there are conflicting opinions on the near-term growth prospects of the economy, the crackdown on interest-only loans seems to have caused investors to back off, and the threat of the major banks adjusting rates to counter the bank levy cannot be entirely discounted. A steady cash rate is the constant among this broader uncertainty.”   Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Hold): "Because the economic is flat and, though it would like to increase rates, the economy remains sluggish."   Matthew Tiller, LJ Hooker (Hold): "No material change in economic environment since RBA last met."   Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics (Hold): "RBA continues to place far too much weight on Sydney and Melbourne housing markets and not enough on the rest of the economy which is crying out for lower interest rates."   John Caelli, ME (Hold): "The RBA won’t cut rates because it remains concerned about fuelling further increases in house prices and household debt."   Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists (Hold): "Our economy is stumbling along so until job numbers improve it would be safe to assume the RBA won’t be hiking interest rates to slow the property markets down. On the other hand they can't afford to drop rates and fuel our property markets. So rates will remain on hold."   Mark Crosby, Monash University (Hold): "While there are some indicators of softening inflation and weakness in the economy, including slowing house price growth there is no case for a rate cut. Given this weakness and a softer US inflation outlook reducing the probability of an imminent Fed rate increase, there is also little case for raising rates."   Christopher Schade, MyState Bank (Hold): "The hurdle for another cut is high. While inflation remains subdued and the outlook for economic growth over the next year couple of years is slightly below trend, interest rate settings in Australia are very accommodative and remain appropriate at their current level. The RBA appears particularly reluctant to deliver further cuts given heightened financial risks on the back of high household debt levels."   Saul Eslake, Economist (Hold): "Nothing has happened since the last meeting that is likely to have materially altered the RBA's view of the outlook for inflation, economic growth or unemployment from that set out in the May Statement on Monetary Policy, and hence nothing will have altered their view that current monetary policy settings are appropriate."   Alan Oster, Nab (Hold): "RBA still weighing rates v house prices. Too early to tell"
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer (Hold): "They are low enough for the bank to continue to watch as is."   Noel Whittaker, QUT (Hold): "No reason to move either way."   Nerida Conisbee, REA (Hold): "The RBA still likely to be concerned about economic growth and particularly underemployment and low inflation. Unwilling to cut due to the state of housing. RBA will be cautious not to accelerate. For home buyers the RBA's decision doesn't really matter as banks will increase rates anyway driven by APRA and potential banking tax."   Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing (Hold): "Retail spending over this month will increase due to retail sales and EOFY, which in turn will increase the nation's credit card debt. This will portray a false positive outlook from an economic point of view."   Janu Chan, St.George Bank (Hold): "RBA unlikely to have altered its on hold stance over the past month. Housing indicators suggest cooling conditions but its concerns over risks associated with housing and household debt will remain. Employment was the other development the rba is watching closely. On this front the fall in the unemployment rate would have been encouraging."   Steven Milch, Suncorp (Hold): "Mixed economic signals don't adequately make the case to cut or hike at this stage."
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

RBA to hold at June 2017 meeting, but the Kouk expects three more cuts

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GUEST OBSERVER
What if you had the lowest interest rates in a generation but no one wanted to borrow.
While Aussie consumers continue to take out loans to buy homes, they continue to slash other debt.
In fact personal credit is falling at the fastest rate for over seven years. Businesses are also not keen to borrow – credit growth is the slowest in three years. Banks and other lenders certainly have the funds – in fact annual growth of bank deposits exceeds that of loans by the biggest margin in four years.
In these more conservative and less volatile times, borrowers are also less keen to embrace margin lending. The number of client accounts stands at 13-year lows while the average number of daily margin calls is at record lows (almost 17 years of records).
The Chinese economy continues to turn over nicely despite constant worries from doomsayers to the contrary. The economy is transitioning from manufacturing to services. And the good news is that the services sector is expanding just below the fastest pace in three years. The 54.5 result for the services gauge in May was just below the recent high of 55.1 in March. The results of the purchasing manager surveys are good news for Australian exporters and importers.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-01%20at%208.12.26%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-01%20at%208.12.26%20AM.png" alt="">
What do the figures show?
Private sector credit
Private sector credit (lending) rose by 0.4 percent in April after a 0.4 percent gain in March. Annual credit growth eased from 5.0 percent to a near 3-year low of 4.9 percent.
Housing credit grew by 0.5 percent in April to be up 6.5 percent on a year ago – annual growth is lifting from the lowest levels in 30 months.
Owner occupier housing credit rose by 0.5 percent in April to stand 6.1 per cent higher than a year ago – the slowest growth in 19 months. Investor housing finance lifted 0.6 percent in April to stand 7.3 percent higher over the year – the fastest growth in 15 months.
Personal credit fell by 0.1 percent in April to be down 1.5 percent over the year – equalling the biggest annual decline in 71⁄2 years.
Business credit rose by 0.4 percent in April after a 0.1 percent rise in March and 0.1 percent fall in February. Business credit is 3.1 percent higher than a year ago – the slowest growth in almost 3 years (35 months). 
Loans and advances by banks rose by 6.3 percent in the year to April – the slowest pace in 31⁄2 years. Bank deposits (term, current, other and certificates of deposit) rose by 7.8 percent in the year to April – the fastest pace in 21⁄2 years.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-01%20at%208.15.50%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-01%20at%208.15.50%20AM.png" alt="">
What is the importance of the economic data?
 Private sector credit figures are released by the Reserve Bank on the last working day of the month. Credit is separated into three categories – housing, other personal and business. Private sector credit is effectively the amount of loans outstanding in the economy. If growth in lending is strong then it suggests that credit from financial institutions is freely available, underlying demand for assets such as cars and houses is firm and that the price of credit (interest rates) is attractive.
The National Bureau of Statistics in China releases purchasing manager survey results for manufacturing and services sectors around the end of the month/first day in the month. The data is useful in tracking the health of the Chinese economy – Australia’s major trading partner. The data is valuable for Australian exporters and importers. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-01%20at%208.17.00%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-01%20at%208.17.00%20AM.png" alt="">
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Chinese economic data remains encouraging, showing that the transition from the industrial sector to household sector remains on track. The manufacturing sector is expanding, while the services sector is clearly the driver taking up any slack.
The Reserve Bank may fret that housing debt is exceeding that of wages, but that is only part of the story. Consumers are trimming other debt including personal loans and credit card debt. Margin loans are out of favour despite low interest rates, low sharemarket volatility and healthy returns on investments. The issue for banks is that inflows of cash are growing at a faster rate than outflows, putting pressure on margins, profitability and potentially dividends.
Interest rates will remain on hold over the rest of 2017. There is no pressing need for a change in rates in any direction. 
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<div class="column"> Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Slowest pace of borrowing in three years: Craig James

Household debt, housing prices and resilience: Philip Lowe

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GUEST OBSERVER
The minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board for May provide no real changes from the April minutes.
As with April, the minutes concluded with “the Board continued to judge that developments in the labour and housing markets warranted careful monitoring”.
This comment was not included in the Governor’s statement following the May board meeting possibly suggesting that the Board had become more relaxed on these issues.
Consequently, repeating the statement in these minutes confirms the Board’s most prominent areas of interest.
The commentary on the housing market was little changed from April with conditions in the Sydney and Melbourne markets being described as “robust” (compared to April – “strengthened further”) -while prices had been falling in Perth.
The threat of additional supply, particularly from apartments, was repeated, with Brisbane being held out for particular attention.
Concerns with household leverage continued to be emphasised - “the risks associated with household balance sheets had been rising”.
Equally, the Board expects that recently announced supervisory measures will assist in this regard, although time will be needed to assess the full effects.
Data on the labour market is described as “somewhat mixed”, although forward indicators provide some comfort that “spare capacity in the labour market will decline gradually”.
Since April, the Board received an update on inflation with the release of the March quarter inflation report.
This report was described as “in line with forecasts” and consistent with, in the Board’s view, that the underlying inflation rate would pick up to around 2% by early 2018.
(Note, that still represents the bottom of the 2-3% target band and the forecasts in the May SoMP do not have inflation back in the middle of the 2-3% band until mid 2019).
The Board neatly describes the inflation dynamics around strong competitive pressures in the retail sector and soft wages growth being partly offset by higher utilities and housing construction costs, although these costs are around materials rather than wages.
The forecasts that growth will lift above 3% in the first half of 2018 is attributed to “the drag from declining mining investment waned and as resources exports continued to pick up”.
Consumption is still forecast to expand above its average rate of recent years, with risks being balanced.
It is interesting to note that these minutes include a comment “a fall in housing prices would also weigh on consumption growth” – this prospect has not been discussed in recent minutes.
The Board expects that commodity prices will continue to fall, probably moving back towards the levels of mid 2016 when the spot iron ore price was around USD$50 compared to the current USD$60.
They are also cautious about the impact of the rising terms of trade on activity particularly boosting mining investment.
There is limited confidence around the outlook for non-mining business investment with some surveys pointing to a lift in intentions and others indicating that it will be some time before we see stronger mining investment growth.
Commentary around global conditions is more positive. “The broad-based nature of the data… provided some confidence that the expansion could become self-reinforcing”.
Monetary policy clearly remains on hold as the Board assesses developments in those key markets – housing and the labour markets.
The persistent view remains that despite clear evidence that the housing construction cycle will turn down (and regulation and recent rate hikes are likely to slow housing activity and price appreciation), risks are still evident around household leverage.
On the other hand, while the Board appears to be increasingly more confident on the global outlook, there is limited optimism around the labour market; household consumption; and non-mining investment.
From our perspective, the persistent view that growth will evolve around 0.5 percent above trend in 2018 and 2019 seems overly optimistic.
While it may seem that the Bank expects to be tightening policy in 2018, our view remains that developments in the housing market; labour market; and global environment will not justify such a policy.
We remain comfortable with our view that rates will remain on hold for the remainder of 2017 and 2018.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a><a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2017/2017-05-02" target="_blank">.</a><a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2017/2017-05-02" target="_blank"> </a>
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