<p>As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]</p>

<p>The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.</p>

<p>Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.</p>

<p>In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]</p>

<p>The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.</p>

<p>Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.</p>

<p>This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]</p>

<p>What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.</p>

<p>The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.</p>

<p>Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]</p>


Joel Robinson

Elevated amenity anchors daily life at Aeris, Melrose Park

<p>Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.</p>

<p>Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.</p>

<p>Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.</p>

<p>“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.</p>

<p>He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]</p>

<p>After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.</p>

<p>"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."</p>

<p>Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.</p>

<p>"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]</p>

<p>Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.</p>

<p>"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."</p>

<p>For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.</p>

<p>"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."</p>

<p>As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.</p>

<p>"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.</p>

<p>"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]</p>

<p>Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.</p>

<p>"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."</p>

<p>That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.</p>

<p>"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]</p>

<p>Aimee says one moment stood out.</p>

<p>"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."</p>

<p>The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.</p>

<p>Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]</p>

<p>ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]</p>

<p>For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.</p>

<p>"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."</p>

<p>For Aimee, the change is measured in time.</p>

<p>“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]</p>

<p>Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.</p>

<p>ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]</p>


From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

<p>Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.</p>

<p>Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.</p>

<p>"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.</p>

<p>"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]</p>

<p>Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.</p>

<p>"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.</p>

<p>The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.</p>

<p>According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.</p>

<p>Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]</p>

<p>Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.</p>

<p>The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.</p>

<p>The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."</p>

<p>The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.</p>

<p>With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]</p>


Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

<p>Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.</p>

<p>The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.</p>

<p>Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.</p>

<p>Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]</p>

<p>The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.</p>

<p>Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.</p>

<p>"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.</p>

<p>The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]</p>

<p>The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.</p>

<p>According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.</p>

<p>The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]</p>

<p>The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.</p>

<p>"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.</p>

<p>"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]</p>

<p>Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.</p>

<p>Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]</p>


Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

<p>New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.</p>

<p>It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.</p>

<p>With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.</p>

<p>The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.</p>

<p>Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]</p>

<p>Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.</p>

<p>"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.</p>

<p>"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.</p>

<p>Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.</p>

<p>That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]</p>

<p>Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.</p>

<p>Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.</p>

<p>"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.</p>

<p>"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."</p>

<p>Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.</p>

<p>"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]</p>

<p>The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.</p>

<p>Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.</p>

<p>That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.</p>

<p>"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]</p>


The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

Rba Rate Decision

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Market mispricing?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you'll kindly indulge a Tuesday night blog post after an evening talking, um, Australian monetary policy at the Clock Hotel (n.b. soft drinks only!), then herewith it follows. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One week ago the October 2019 RBA Minutes were released, and they stated that, if needed, policy would be eased further <em><strong>to achieve full employment and the inflation target. </strong></em>
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<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DRBZQLy3u2w/Xa7Rmuaj5lI/AAAAAAAAyb0/9eymjiILxfw9dfOchYSpgYfk1z-bP_JdgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/RBA4.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DRBZQLy3u2w/Xa7Rmuaj5lI/AAAAAAAAyb0/9eymjiILxfw9dfOchYSpgYfk1z-bP_JdgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/RBA4.jpg" width="640" height="202" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="831"></a></div>
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<div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: RBA</span></em></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Then on October 18 the RBA Governor delivered a designedly upbeat speech to the IMF in Washington, which justifiably highlighted Australia's record unbroken stretch of economic growth among other Antipodean successes (including the floating currency, which often - though not always - moves in harmony with commodity prices). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I didn't listen to the audio live, but while we don't need to link to all of the media pieces, across the board we saw a rash of articles suggesting that the RBA is done with cutting and has hosed down the prospect of further cuts.<br><br>A bit odd, it seemed.<br><br>
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<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yOb6CoNIbAM/Xa7QjD8vWaI/AAAAAAAAybg/bQhRxx6datcUorhTVySG840RkCNgvS_ZACEwYBhgL/s1600/rba.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yOb6CoNIbAM/Xa7QjD8vWaI/AAAAAAAAybg/bQhRxx6datcUorhTVySG840RkCNgvS_ZACEwYBhgL/s640/rba.jpg" width="640" height="594" data-original-height="687" data-original-width="738"></a></div>
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<div>I'll come back to this point, but I broke one of my own golden rules here: at the risk of sounding like an episode of <em>Yes, Prime Minister,</em> always listen to what was actually said, not what was said about what was being said!</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Inflation smoked</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest employment figures were <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-gentlest-of-turning-points" target="_blank">modestly positive</a>, but the leading indicators are weakening and there was no indication that labour force slack will be reduced significantly, or that full employment will be on the horizon any time soon. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unemployment was still uppish at 5.2 per cent, and the underemployment rate remained <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-gentlest-of-turning-points" target="_blank">way high at 8.3 per cent</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looking towards next Wednesday's inflation figures for the September quarter, it's hard to see where any inflationary pressures at all are going to come from, except for - yet again - smokes. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There may well be some food price inflation due to the drought (which itself drags further on economic growth), but rental price growth will be at or close to record lows, and there may be some other offsetting<span> factors. </span>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Crunching through the numbers, with a hat tip to the ever-brilliant Justin Smirk at Westpac, spits out trimmed mean inflation of, say, 0.3 per cent, and the weighted median may well be even lower still.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>So that gets you to annual core inflation of about 1½ per cent for trimmed mean, and just 1.2 per cent for the weighted median, which is so far below the mandated target you could drive a truck through the gap (or an attractively priced new SUV the way new car sales have been tracking!). </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>If all of this proves to be the case - and, by the way, the mid-point of the inflation target is 2½ per cent - why wouldn't the RBA be cutting with bells on?</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Financial markets have effectively priced out a November cut - and almost any further cuts at all - as far as I can tell because some people said that's what the Governor said...but is that what was said?</span></div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">What's the French word for nuance?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>To recap briefly, we have a 'no' to full employment, and a resounding 'no' for being close to achieving the inflation target, which market expectations see as a distant dream. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Now let's go back to the IMF speech, and more specifically the very brief Q&amp;A segment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then to a question from the floor!<br><br>Question: has the RBA got 'a lot of work to do' in terms of delivering monetary easing (the cash rate is at 0.75 per cent), and should we assume negative rates or other unorthodox policies?</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-clR0lulvZts/Xa7QjR6iU9I/AAAAAAAAybk/Gr6cNLxerWop15HuL3ZX5MUE0_VVFXOOQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/rba2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-clR0lulvZts/Xa7QjR6iU9I/AAAAAAAAybk/Gr6cNLxerWop15HuL3ZX5MUE0_VVFXOOQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/rba2.jpg" width="640" height="314" data-original-height="548" data-original-width="1111"></a></div>
<div>
<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em><br></em></span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: RBA</em></span>
</div>
<div>To my mind, there's only one way that a central bank Governor could've answered that question given the circumstances, and here it is:</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-f-5mD8YZPyQ/Xa7QjEC41XI/AAAAAAAAybc/v_-AtHtN2jUVIO0rjd4o_QVHjJNPYIG5QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/rba3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-f-5mD8YZPyQ/Xa7QjEC41XI/AAAAAAAAybc/v_-AtHtN2jUVIO0rjd4o_QVHjJNPYIG5QCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/rba3.jpg" width="640" height="164" data-original-height="286" data-original-width="1112"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: RBA</span></em></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">November live</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>Now I could be off beam here - it's happened on this blog at least once before! - but this answer, and perhaps some of the remainder of the transcript might have been misinterpreted...and the market pricing may in turn have been led astray. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>No central banker could have reasonably responded 'we have lots more to do' on easing, and the question on negative interest rates was always going to be batted to the fence, which it quite rightly was. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The consensus view is that there will be no further easing this year, but if inflation is as low as it looks to be - essentially a sin tax on tobacco and a bit of drought-related food price inflation - then the November meeting could be a live one.<br><br>I've leaned heavily here on the analysis of Sophia Rodrigues of Central Bank Intel (if you're an institution you should subscribe to her forthcoming content), and another prominent markets analyst in Sydney (well, it's the Clock Hotel, you can work it out). </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. </em></div>
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Why the November RBA meeting may be live: Pete Wargent

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<p>At its December meeting the Reserve Bank Board decided to maintain the policy settings it adopted at the November Board meeting.</p>
<p>The Governor confirmed the key forecasts that were adopted for the November Statement on Monetary Policy: “It will not be until the end of 2021 that the level of GDP reaches the level attained at the end of 2019. In the central scenario, GDP is expected to grow by around 5 per cent next year and 4 per cent over 2022”.</p>
<p>That growth profile is expected to be consistent with an unemployment rate of 8% by end 2020; 6.5% by end 2021; and 6% by end 2022.</p>
<p>It is this persistently high unemployment rate that is expected to weigh on wages growth and ultimately inflation prompting the Governor to confirm that “the Board is not expecting to increase the cash rate for at least 3 years”.</p>
<p>Over the course of the next few months, as we move to the next Board meeting on February 2 the Board may need to significantly review its forecasts.</p>
<p>Firstly, the unemployment rate in December, seems unlikely to reach 8% given its current level of 7.1%.</p>
<p>Westpac expects strong employment growth in November as Victoria reopens and while the participation rate is likely to rise a jump in the unemployment rate to 8% seems unlikely.</p>
<p>Secondly, the RBA is forecasting growth in 2020 of minus 4% implying growth of around 3.5% in the second half. We expect the GDP report for the September quarter will print around 3% leading to a growth rate in 2020 of minus 3% including growth in the second half of around 4.5%. That further supports the likelihood that the unemployment rate finishes the year well below the RBA’s 8% forecast.</p>
<p>With population growth in 2021 reflecting a likely contraction in net immigration potential growth in 2021 could be in the 1.5% – 2.0% range, (the Government’s current forecasts are for net migration in 2020/21 of minus 70,000 and for 2021/22 of minus 20,000).</p>
<p>The RBA’s forecast of GDP growth of 5% in 2021 currently implies a fall in the unemployment rate of 1.5 ppt’s – such a gap between potential and actual growth (3–3.5 ppt’s) could well see a more significant fall in the unemployment rate. Certainly, if we end 2020 with an unemployment rate below 7.5% and markets “buy” the 5% growth forecast for GDP in 2021 markets are likely to be projecting an unemployment rate of well below the RBA’s current 6.5% forecast.</p>
<p>For 2022 the RBA is forecasting another “above potential “growth rate of 4%. While population growth will have lifted in 2022 as foreign borders reopen we are almost certain to get a below par rate of population growth in 2022- implying perhaps a potential growth rate of 2.25% – well below the forecast rate of 4%. Markets may also be surprised that in such circumstances the unemployment rate is only forecast to fall by 0.5% from 6.5% to 6.0%.</p>
<p>We are sceptical about the 5% growth forecast in 2021 but would expect that if it was “delivered” the unemployment rate would finish 2021 well below the RBA’s 6.5% forecast; equally a 4% growth rate in 2022 with sub-par population growth would likely see a bigger fall in the unemployment rate than 0.5 ppt’s.</p>
<p>Faster than forecast falls in the unemployment rate in 2021 and 2022 would certainly invite speculation in the market about the RBA’s policy direction.</p>
<p>Taking the RBA’s unemployment rate forecasts at face value there is clear scope for more policy support. The RBA sees its role as complementary to fiscal policy – “monetary and fiscal support will be required for some time” and “the Board is not expecting to increase the cash rate for at least three years”.</p>
<p>The decision to peg the three year target bond rate at the cash rate is the strongest form of forward guidance – much bolder than we see from other central banks that engage in forward guidance.</p>
<p>On the face value of the RBA’s current forecasts, Westpac’s view that the RBA will be required to adjust the target rate on the three year bond around mid 2022, seems reasonable but, as discussed, the risks around the forecasts will see significant market speculation around this issue through 2021.</p>
<p>We also learned from Deputy Governor Debelle’s speech last week that the 3 year rate is more significant for the private sector than the longer maturities (say 5 – 10 years).</p>
<p>That implies that the sequence of any unwinding of the policy package of the November Board meeting is likely to be QE first; followed by yield curve control; followed by adjusting the cash rate.</p>
<p>In the near term the Governor’s confirmation that “The Board will keep the bond purchase program under review, particularly in light of the evolving outlook for jobs and inflation … is prepared to do more if necessary”. raises the real prospect that the $100 billion program, which is targeted to be completed by June, will be extended. That decision would certainly be consistent with the timing that Westpac currently envisages for the adjustment of the yield curve control policy.</p>
<p>Since the Board announced its suite of policies on November 3 the AUD has risen from USD0.716 to USD 0.737. As noted in the Governor’s Statement the policy response contributes to “a lower exchange rate than otherwise”.  Reasonably the Governor attributes the vaccine related “improvement in risk sentiment” with a depreciation of the US dollar and an appreciation of the Australian dollar”. There is no hint of disappointment or impatience with this rise in the AUD.</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<p>Whereas 2021 might appear to be an uneventful year from the perspective of the cash rate the introduction of the RBA’s other policy tools raises a range of uncertainties about the policy mix.</p>
<p>All of these uncertainties will have significant implications for markets; the yield curve; and ultimately the economy.</p>
<p>2021 might not be that boring after all!</p>
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Uncertainty around RBA forecasts suggests 2021 will not be boring: Bill Evans

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<p>The RBA have kept the official interest rate on hold at the final meeting of 2020, also reaffirming their previously announced quantitative easing policy.</p>
<p>RBA governor Philip Lowe said In Australia, the economic recovery is under way and recent data has generally been better than expected.</p>
<p>CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless says the RBA remains in ‘wait and see’ mode as the earlier heavy lifting on monetary policy flows through to the Australian economy. </p>
<p>"Labour markets are tightening, housing prices are broadly rising, credit flows are trending higher and consumers are more confident now than they were leading up to the pandemic," Lawless says.</p>
<p>"Most indicators are pointing towards a faster than forecast recovery thanks to record low interest rates along with ongoing fiscal support and containment of the virus."</p>
<p>As part of the Finder.com.au RBA Cash Rate Survey, AMP Capital economist Shane Oliver says the first rate hike is unlikely until sometime in 2024.</p>
<p>"Given that the cash rate is already at 0.1% and the RBA does not want to take it negative, the next move is likely to be a hike. But given the high level of spare capacity in the economy, inflation is unlikely to meet the RBA’s conditions for a hike of being sustainably within the 2-3% target range for another three years or so," Oliver says.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Since the last -0.15 per cent cash rate cut on November 3 which took the official rate down to a record low 0.1 per cent, financial comparison website Canstar have found that 25 lenders have cut variable home rates by an average of -0.17 per cent.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">There have been significantly more cuts in the fixed rates as lenders seek to gain the market share. </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Some 63 lenders have cut 1,138 fixed rates by an average of -0.31 per cent.</p>
<p>A number of lenders have reduced their floor rates to under five per cent, which Laing+Simmons managing director Leanne Pilkington says could potential deliver a major boost in borrowing capacity.</p>
<p>Pilkington, also the <span>REINSW president,</span> says however that the real winners are likely to be vendors.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“Vendors already have reason to be confident," Pilkington says.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">"Clearance rates are strong, the supply shortage ensures a large buyer pool for available properties, strong prices are being achieved and low interest rates give buyers the confidence to proceed.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“Now, it appears those buyers will be able to borrow more. The buyer pool for properties coming to market potentially grows larger. More competition from more finance-ready buyers is great news for vendors.”</p>
<p>Floor rates are used by lenders to guide their assessment of a customer's borrowing capacity.</p>
<p>Finsure managing director John Kolenda says expectations of a spending spree in the lead up to Christmas this year also augured well for the domestic economy.</p>
<p>“There are some very positive signs of a rebound with consumer confidence and spending on the rise, which is an indicator we have likely seen the worst of the downturn,” Kolenda said.</p>
<p>“I expect the property market will be a strong feature of the national economy over the coming 12 months with strong results being recorded around the country.</p>
<p>“All signs across the economy indicate we might have hit the bottom and that rates have also hit that level and we are not likely to see any further easing in the foreseeable future."<strong><br></strong></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><strong> </strong></p>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

RBA stick with interest rate, QE policy at December meeting

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<p>The RBA kept the official cash rate at a record low 0.1 per cent at its December 2020 meeting.</p>
<div>
<div class="rss-mr-content">
<p>At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the current policy settings, including the targets of 10 basis points for the cash rate and the yield on 3-year Australian Government bonds, as well as the parameters of the Term Funding Facility and the government bond purchase program.</p>
<p>Globally, the news has been mixed recently. On the one hand, infection rates have risen sharply in Europe and the United States and the recoveries in these economies have lost momentum. On the other hand, there has been positive news on the vaccine front, which should support the recovery of the global economy.</p>
<p>The recovery is also dependent on ongoing support from both fiscal and monetary policy. Hours worked in most countries remain noticeably below pre-pandemic levels and inflation is low and below central bank targets.</p>
<p>Financial conditions remain accommodative around the world, with bond yields near historically low levels. The positive news on vaccines has boosted equity markets, lowered risk premiums and supported further increases in some commodity prices.</p>
<p>The improvement in risk sentiment has also been associated with a depreciation of the US dollar and an appreciation of the Australian dollar.</p>
<p>In Australia, the economic recovery is under way and recent data have generally been better than expected.</p>
<p>This is good news, but the recovery is still expected to be uneven and drawn out and it remains dependent on significant policy support. In the RBA's central scenario, it will not be until the end of 2021 that the level of GDP reaches the level attained at the end of 2019.</p>
<p>In the central scenario, GDP is expected to grow by around 5 per cent next year and 4 per cent over 2022.</p>
<p>Employment growth was again strong in October, although the unemployment rate increased to 7 per cent as more people rejoined the workforce. A further rise in the unemployment rate is still expected, as businesses restructure in response to the pandemic and more people rejoin the workforce. The unemployment rate is forecast to decline next year, but only slowly and still to be around 6 per cent at the end of 2022.</p>
<p>The extended period of high unemployment and excess capacity is expected to result in subdued increases in wages and prices over coming years. In the September quarter, the Wage Price Index increased by just 0.1 per cent, to be 1.4 per cent higher over the year.</p>
<p>In underlying terms, inflation is forecast to be 1 per cent in 2021 and 1½ per cent in 2022.</p>
<p>The Board views addressing the high rate of unemployment as an important national priority. Its policy decisions over recent months will help here. These decisions are complementary to the significant steps taken by Australian governments to support jobs and economic growth.</p>
<p>The Bank's policy response has lowered interest rates across the yield curve, which will assist the recovery by: lowering financing costs for borrowers; contributing to a lower exchange rate than otherwise; and supporting asset prices and balance sheets.</p>
<p>The Term Funding Facility is also supporting the supply of credit to businesses. To date, authorised deposit-taking institutions have drawn down $84 billion under this facility and have access to a further $105 billion.</p>
<p>Over the past month, the Bank has bought $19 billion of government bonds under the bond purchase program and a further $5 billion of Australian government securities in support of the 3-year yield target. Since the start of this year, the RBA's balance sheet has increased by around $130 billion.</p>
<p>Given the outlook for both employment and inflation, monetary and fiscal support will be required for some time. For its part, the Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range.</p>
<p>For this to occur, wages growth will have to be materially higher than it is currently. This will require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market. Given the outlook, the Board is not expecting to increase the cash rate for at least 3 years.</p>
<p>The Board will keep the size of the bond purchase program under review, particularly in light of the evolving outlook for jobs and inflation.</p>
<p>The Board is prepared to do more if necessary.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="box-enquiries"> </div>
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High unemployment rate is the priority: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's December 2020 meeting statement

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<p>Despite mounting speculation about the possibility of another cut, the RBA announced that it will hold the cash rate at 0.25% at its October meeting.</p>
<p>In this month's Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey™, 40 experts and economists weighed in on future cash rate moves and other issues related to the state of the Australian economy.</p>
<p>The decision coincided with the unveiling of the federal budget for 2020-2021, in which the government has detailed how it intends to steer the nation out of its first recession in 30 years.</p>
<p>Despite the October rate hold, 22% of experts (9/40) predict that a cut could still be on the cards in November.</p>
<p>Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said that a standalone cut of 15 basis points is unlikely to have much of an impact on Australia’s economy.</p>
<p>“The cash rate has fallen by 125 basis points over the last year and a half– 15 more is unlikely to make much of a difference beyond making the RBA feel like they are at least doing something.</p>
<p>“The decision to hold the rate for now also suggests that the RBA wants to assess the budget in detail before making a decision about further moves,” he said.</p>
<p>Susan Mitchell, CEO at Mortgage Choice, agrees, stating that while the RBA has hinted at a rate cut, it would be unlikely to do so today.</p>
<p>“Although a case could be made for a cut this month, I think the RBA will keep the cash rate unchanged at its October monetary policy meeting.</p>
<p>“Board members will wait to digest the Federal Budget announcement before making their next move," Mitchell said.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

RBA held but November rate cut expected: Finder

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>The RBA left the cash rate on hold at its October meeting for the seventh month in a row.</p>
<p>The RBA noted again that a global economic recovery is underway but it remains uneven and dependent on containing the virus and while a recovery is underway in most of Australia it is likely to be uneven and bumpy. While it now sees the unemployment rate peaking at a lower rate than earlier expected (10%) it notes that “unemployment and underemployment are likely to remain high for an extended period.”</p>
<p>Given the uncertainty around the pace of recovery, the RBA reiterated its commitment to do “what it can” to support jobs, incomes and businesses and its commitment to “not increase the cash rate until progress is being made towards full employment and it is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2-3% target band.” It also repeated its easing bias by again noting that it “continues to consider how further monetary measures could support jobs as the economy opens up further.” Consistent with its focus on unemployment it tweaked the end bit of that statement from support for the “recovery” to support for “jobs”. The emphasis on jobs was further underlined by the RBA’s comment that it “views addressing the high rate of unemployment as an important national priority.”</p>
<p>Most of the effort to boost jobs will fall to fiscal policy and the Budget, but the RBA can also further aid the process and we think it will.</p>
<p>With the RBA recently explicitly stating that its forecast outlook for inflation and employment is not consistent with its objectives and regularly running through a list of options for further policy easing over the last month or so we had thought it would move today with another rate cut to 0.1%. It would have provided the opportunity for another “Team Australia” moment on the same day as the Budget and so further enhance the impact of further easing. And if it was already thinking about further easing why wait? But we also acknowledged that it was a close call and so maybe the RBA concluded there was already too much on today. Maybe the good news drip feed approach has extended to the RBA!</p>
<p>But our base case remains that the RBA will cut the cash rate, the Term Funding Facility rate and the three year bond yield target to 0.1% and will now do this at its November meeting after it has updated its forecasts which will likely show that its employment and inflation objectives are still not going to be met over the next two years at least.</p>
<p>Over the next six months we also see the RBA moving towards inflation average targeting and therefore tweaking its forward guidance to say that it won’t raise the cash rate until full employment is reached and inflation is sustainably within the 2-3% target band. And we also see it adopting a more traditional quantitative easing program extending bond buying beyond the three-year bond.</p>
<p><strong>Shane Oliver</strong> |<em> Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist</em> | <em>AMP Capital</em></p>
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RBA on hold but likely to cut: Shane Oliver

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank (RBA) maintained its targets for the cash rate and 3-year government bond yield at 0.25 per cent (quarter of a per cent or 25 basis points). The Reserve Bank left the door open to further easing.</p>
<p>What has changed since the last Board meeting on September 1?</p>
<p>After slipping by 0.3 per cent in the March quarter, the Australian economy contracted by 7.0 per cent in the June quarter (survey -6 per cent). It was the biggest quarterly decline in output since quarterly records began in 1959.</p>
<p>The NAB business confidence index improved from -8.2 points to -3.8 points in September. The business conditions index improved from -6.2 points to an 8-month high of +0.4 points.</p>
<p>The US President and First Lady both tested positive for the COVID-19 virus.</p>
<p>Employment rose by 111,000 in August (survey forecast: -35,000). The unemployment rate fell from a 22-year high of 7.5 per cent to 6.8 per cent in August (survey forecast: 7.7 per cent). It was the biggest monthly fall in the jobless rate in 32 years (July 1988).</p>
<p>The US Federal Reserve left the target range for the federal funds rate between zero and 0.25 per cent. All but four policymakers expect rates to remain near zero through to 2023. The Fed will target an inflation rate a little above 2 per cent.</p>
<p>Retail trade fell by 4 per cent in August after rising by 3.2 per cent in July. Retail trade is up 7.1 per cent over the year.</p>
<p>The CoreLogic Home Value Index of national home prices fell by just 0.1 per cent in September. Prices were up 4.8 per cent over the year.</p>
<p>Private sector credit (effectively outstanding loans) was broadly unchanged in August (survey: -0.1 per cent) to be up 2.2 per cent on the year – the slowest annual growth rate in over 10 years.</p>
<p>Total household wealth rose by 1.5 per cent to $11,131.8 billion in the June quarter, a partial reversal of the 2.5 per cent fall in the March quarter.</p>
<p>The Aussie dollar has eased from US74 cents to US70-72 cents.</p>
<p><strong>The assessment</strong></p>
<p>The Reserve Bank has left the door open to more stimulus. But at present there is no reason to be contemplating options. The Reserve Bank may consider further ‘monetary easing’ but that may not mean more rate cuts, rather bond purchases.</p>
<p><strong>Perspectives on interest rates</strong></p>
<p>The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate at a record low of 0.25 per cent after previously cutting rates on March 3 and March 19, 2020, each by 25 basis points. There have been 17 rate cuts since November 2011 with the cash rate cut from 4.75 per cent. Previously rates rose seven times from October 2009 to November 2010 from 3.00 per cent to 4.75 per cent.</p>
<p><strong>What are the implications of today’s decision?</strong></p>
<p>Interest rates will remain at record low levels until at least 2023. That is the good news for the business sector and home buyers. People can go about their lives and not have to worry about rates rising or falling.</p>
<p>The Federal Budget is handed down in a few hours’ time. The intention is to create and maintain jobs, and that is better achieved by fiscal measures rather than monetary policy. The Reserve Bank noted that ‘addressing the high rate of unemployment’ was a ‘national priority.’</p>
<p>There are actually two key factors that will influence economic recovery: jobs and confidence. And the best way the Reserve Bank can boost confidence is to leave interest rate settings unchanged. Consumers must have confidence to spend and business must have confidence to employ, spend and invest.</p>
<p>If the job market was to weaken markedly, the Reserve Bank could certainly contemplate a modest rate cut from 25 basis points to 10 basis points. Or increase government bond purchases. Discussion about negative interest rates would probably return as well. But it is clear that the Bank now can only do so much – stimulus is more a matter for federal, state and territory governments.</p>
<p>And of course, success at achieving solid economic recovery is to a large extent out of policymaker hands. It’s all about ‘flattening the curve’, virus treatments and vaccines.</p>
<p><strong>Craig James</strong><em>,</em><em><span> Chief Economist, CommSec</span></em></p>
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RBA's focus is on jobs: CommSec's Craig James

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<div>
<div class="rss-mr-content">
<p>At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the current policy settings, including the targets for the cash rate, the yield on 3-year Australian Government bonds, and the parameters for the expanded Term Funding Facility.</p>
<p>The global economy is gradually recovering after a severe contraction due to the pandemic. However, the recovery is uneven and its continuation is dependent on containment of the virus. While infection rates have declined in some countries, they have increased in others. The recovery is most advanced in China, where conditions have improved substantially over recent months. Globally, inflation remains very low and below central bank targets.</p>
<p>Financial conditions remain accommodative around the world and supportive of the economic recovery. Financial market volatility is low and the prices of many assets have risen substantially despite the high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. Bond yields are at historically low levels, as are interest rates for most businesses and households. The Australian dollar remains just a little below its peak of the past couple of years.</p>
<p>The Australian economy experienced a sharp contraction in the June quarter, with output falling by 7 per cent. As difficult as this was, the decline in output was smaller than in most other countries and smaller than was earlier expected. A recovery is now under way in most of Australia, although the second-wave outbreak in Victoria has resulted in a further contraction in output there. The national recovery is likely to be bumpy and uneven and it will be some time before the level of output returns to its end 2019 level.</p>
<p>Labour market conditions have improved somewhat over the past few months and the unemployment rate is likely to peak at a lower rate than earlier expected. Even so, unemployment and underemployment are likely to remain high for an extended period. Wage and inflation pressures remain very subdued. The Bank will publish a full set of updated forecasts next month.</p>
<p>Over the past six months, the Australian economy has been supported by a substantial easing of fiscal policy. Public sector balance sheets in Australia are in good shape, which allows for continued support, with the Australian Government budget to be announced this evening. Both fiscal and monetary support will be required for some time given the outlook for the economy and the prospect of high unemployment.</p>
<p>The Bank's policy package is working as expected and is underpinning very low borrowing costs and the supply of credit to households and businesses. There is a very high level of liquidity in the Australian financial system and borrowing costs are at record lows. $81 billion of low-cost funding for authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) has been advanced under the initial allowance of the Term Funding Facility. ADIs currently have access to a further $120 billion under this facility. As this is drawn down, there will be a further very significant expansion of the Reserve Bank's balance sheet.</p>
<p>Government bond markets are functioning well, alongside a significant increase in issuance. Bond yields are around record lows. Early in September, the Bank bought a further $2 billion of Australian Government Securities (AGS) in support of its 3-year yield target, bringing total purchases of government securities since March to $63 billion. Over the past couple of weeks, 3-year yields have fallen to around 18 basis points as markets price in some probability of further monetary policy easing.</p>
<p>The Board is committed to do what it can to support jobs, incomes and businesses in Australia. Its actions, including last month's decision to expand the Term Funding Facility, are keeping funding costs low and assisting with the supply of credit. The Board views addressing the high rate of unemployment as an important national priority. It will maintain highly accommodative policy settings as long as is required and will not increase the cash rate target until progress is being made towards full employment and it is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target band. The Board continues to consider how additional monetary easing could support jobs as the economy opens up further.</p>
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<div class="box-enquiries">For the official meeting statement on the RBA website, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2020/mr-20-24" target="_blank">click here</a>. </div>
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Board continues to consider how additional monetary easing could support jobs: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's October 2020 meeting statement

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<p>The RBA have resisted a cut to the official cash rate at their October meeting today, with the budget announcement tonight expected to have kept the RBA waiting.</p>
<p>They noted in their meeting statement that they are still considering <a href="/expert-insights/finance/board-continues-to-consider-how-additional-monetary-easing-could-support-jobs-rba-governor-philip-lowes-october-2020-meeting-statement">how additional monetary policy can support jobs</a>.</p>
<p>CoreLogic's head of residential research Tim Lawless says the focus will now be on whether the stimulus measurers announced in the budget tonight are enough to offset the tapering of JobKeeper and the effect of higher mortgage arrears as home loan repayment deferrals become less prevalent.</p>
<p>"Such a low setting for interest rates, along with policies aimed at ensuring liquidity across financial markets, has been a key factor in supporting housing market activity and insulating home values", Lawless said.</p>
<p>"With the cash rate and mortgage rates set to remain low or reduce even further, prospective home buyers are likely to feel more confident in making high commitment purchasing decisions, such as property.</p>
<p>"Government incentives, such as the first home loan deposit guarantee, the first home buyers grant and the HomeBuilder grant, along with state based incentives such as stamp duty discounts, have supported greater levels of participation from first home buyers, while existing mortgage holders have been shopping around for the best mortgage rates fuelling a surge in refinancing</p>
<p>Mortgage Choice chief executive Susan Mitchell said it was unlikely to board would cut today despite hinting at a cut.</p>
<p>“Board members will wait to digest the Federal Budget announcement before making their next move," Mitchell said. </p>
<p>CreditorWatch economist Harley Dale says the RBA will likely reduce the cash rate in due course. </p>
<p><span>“Tonight, it is the turn of the Federal Government to set out a clear agenda for recovery in what is the most important fiscal update in close to a century.”</span><span><br></span></p>
<div>Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans had <a href="/expert-insights/finance/westpac-now-expect-rba-to-cut-in-october-bill-evans">pencilled in a cut for October</a>, but when the government announced the budget for the same day, he <a href="/expert-insights/finance/westpac-push-rba-rate-cut-forecast-to-november">pushed the cut to November.</a>
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<p>Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said that a standalone cut of 15 basis points is unlikely to have much of an impact on Australia’s economy.</p>
<p>“The cash rate has fallen by 125 basis points over the last year and a half– 15 more is unlikely to make much of a difference beyond making the RBA feel like they are at least doing something.</p>
<p>“The decision to hold the rate for now also suggests that the RBA wants to assess the budget in detail before making a decision about further moves,” he said.</p>
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<h1>A good time to buy?</h1>
<p>Two thirds of experts in the Finder survey say now is a good time to buy property.</p>
<p>Some 86 per cent of respondents said the housing market is showing more resilience than anticipated, with one of Commonwealth Bank's worst case scenario's tipping more than 30 per cent falls. </p>
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<p> <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/10/6/to%20buy%20finder%20experts.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Rebecca Cassells of Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre said that government stimulus measures during the pandemic have largely propped up the property market. </p>
<p>“The current resilience of the housing market is related to the stimulus that both federal and state governments are directing to the sector and not necessarily driven by current economic conditions,” Cassells said.</p>
<p>When asked about the areas where house prices are most likely to retain their value, those who weighed in cited the coastal surrounds of Sydney (50%, 9/18), followed by Greater Melbourne (41%, 7/17).<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
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RBA keeps rates on hold at October meeting

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<p dir="ltr">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p dir="ltr">We think the RBA will leave rates on hold today but keep the door open for more easing depending on the outcome of the budget and other economic news in the coming weeks, particularly the inflation numbers due in a couple of weeks.<br><br>Our focus is more on the liquidity measures as they have a direct impact on lending and investment. <br><br>Our data suggests that investors are starting to move into the real estate investment market as low rates start to bite into both their savings and future cashflow projects.<br><br>Early signs are of a faster than expected Melbourne recovery, but we’ll get a better idea of this trend in coming months. </p>
<p dir="ltr"><span><strong>Bottom line:</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Future cuts will have a minimal impact on market lending rates, particularly to ordinary real estate investors.<br><br>But liquidity measures loosening or tightening are perhaps more important.<br><br>Bond yields are pricing in a lower for longer rate scenario and we think a November cut is more likely than October.<br><br>Talk must be followed by action. </span></p>
<p dir="ltr">Stephanie Davies is the investment director at Wealthi.</p>
<p dir="ltr"><span> </span></p>
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