Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Rba Insights

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The Sydney price recovery could be just one or two cash rate cuts away.
That's a real possibility based on the latest research of no-less, the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Their researchers found falling interest rates was the chief catalyst behind the huge surge in prices between 2012 and 2017.
“We find that low interest rates — partly reflecting lower world long-term rates — explain much of the rapid growth in housing prices and construction over the past few years," RBA economist Trent Saunders and RBA senior research manager Peter Tulip noted.
Their modelling of the Australian housing market sought to quantify the inter-relationships between prices, rents, construction and vacancies.
They found the building boom seen in recent years would not have been as pronounced were it not for the lower borrowing costs and higher prices prompting a supply response from developers.
Another demand factor, high immigration, helped explain the tight housing market and rapid growth in rents.
“The model estimates that the reduction in real interest rates (actual interest rates, less inflation) accounts for most of the boom in dwelling prices and a large part of the boom in dwelling investment,” said the researchers in their 35 page report.
It is not the official view of the board that sits in judgement on the first Tuesday of the month, but the insights are going to shape the timing and speed of any next move in the cash rate.
The speculation of the rate cut hit the mainstream in early this year when Shane Oliver, the chief economist at AMP Capital, raised the prospect.
Oliver noted home price weakness was at levels where the RBA started cutting rates in 2008 and 2011 and the 2015-16 property slowdown was also turned around by rate cuts in May and August 2016.
"Ongoing home price falls in Sydney and Melbourne will depress consumer spending as the wealth effect goes in reverse and so homeowners will be less inclined to allow their savings rate to decline," Oliver noted.
The RBA rate cut whisperer Bill Evans at Westpac chimed in last month expecting the Reserve Bank to cut the cash rate by 25bps in both August and November this year.
Evans noted headwinds for the housing market and activity were also apparent in developments around credit.
Evans noted there was less lending demand and supply, after concerns around falling prices and stretched affordability and lending supply being hit by new regulations and caution from some lenders in a falling market.
Evans anticipates unlike the response of the property markets in 2016 to two rate cuts that he does not expect that these two cuts will immediately stabilise housing markets.
Last week NAB's Alan Oster who said the RBA outlook for a further fall in unemployment to gradually lift wages and ultimately inflation is increasingly in doubt.
He therefore expects the RBA to provide some further support to the economy in the form of lower interest rates.
Oster anticipates in July and November. 
While the RBA research will contribute to the commentary, there's little risk that home prices will rise rapidly.
The introduction of tougher lending standards towards household expenses and outstanding debt held by individual borrowers ought make sure of this.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

The Sydney price recovery could be just one or two cash rate cuts away

<html><body>
RBA economist Trent Saunders and RBA senior research manager Peter Tulip have created a model to summarize the Australian housing market.
"We build an empirical model of the Australian housing market that quantifies interrelationships between construction, vacancies, rents and prices," Saunders and Tulip said.
"We find that low interest rates (partly reflecting lower world long-term rates) explain much of the rapid growth in housing prices and construction over the past few years," the paid said.
"Another demand factor, high immigration, also helps explain the tight housing market and rapid growth in rents in the late 2000s.
"A large part of the effect of interest rates on dwelling investment, and hence GDP, works through housing prices.
Click here to enlarge the key model relationships in the Australian housing market.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/11/key-model-relationships.jpg" alt="">
The model has six important equations, denoted by blue boxes.
"It also contains a large number of identities and simple forecasting equations (typically autoregressions) used for projecting forward variables we think of as exogenous," Saunders and Tulip said.
A brief discussion of each of the key points, highlighted by Saunders and Tulip, are found below. To read the full RBA release, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2019/pdf/rdp2019-01.pdf" target="_blank">click here</a>.
Building Approvals
"We model constant price building approvals for detached houses, higher-density housing, and alterations and additions separately.
"This disaggregation is useful because the different types of construction behave differently and because alterations and additions do not contribute to the number of new dwellings, an important factor in explaining the vacancy rate."
Dwelling investment and the housing stock (constant prices) 
"Dwelling investment is a volatile component of GDP and is important for macroeconomic forecasting and policy. 
"It has also been a focus of other researchers and model builders, so our predictions for it facilitate comparisons. 
"Approvals flow into dwelling investment with a long-run elasticity of 1. 
"Specifically, for each category of housing construction, we map approvals through to commencements, then commencements to work done, work done to dwelling investment, and finally, dwelling investment to the constant price measure of the housing stock.
Completions and the number of dwellings 
"The second chain of variables affected by dwelling approvals explains the number (as distinct from the value or volume) of dwellings that are built. 
"To estimate the number of approvals we remove alterations and additions and the effect of the changes in quality (most evident in larger floor sizes) from the estimates of new dwelling approvals."
Rental Vacancies
"Figure eight (below) shows components of what might be considered as ‘excess supply’ of housing. 
"The green line in the top panel shows quarterly changes in the number of dwellings. This equals housing completions (as modelled in the previous section) less demolitions.
"This is often called the supply of new dwellings, though the demand/supply distinction is difficult to apply to owner-occupied housing, which households provide to themselves.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/13/Figure8.jpg" alt="">
"These estimates are lower than the ‘housing supply’ estimates of Ong et al because we allow for both approvals that are not completed and demolitions. 
"The purple line shows what we call ‘underlying’ household formation, defined as quarterly changes in adult population, which is an important and exogenous component of underlying demand, divided by a five-year trailing average of adults per dwelling."
Housing Prices
"Research on the determinants of housing prices, both in Australia and overseas commonly focuses on the user cost of housing. 
The user cost represents the annual cost of owning a house, comprising the sum of interest payments, repairs, rates and other running costs, less expected capital appreciation.
"In the long run, this tends to be close to the cost of renting a similar dwelling. 
"If the user cost were lower than rents, households would be financially better off owning than renting and might be expected to bid up the price of houses. 
"Conversely, when renting is cheaper, there would be downward pressure on housing prices."
To read the full RBA release, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2019/pdf/rdp2019-01.pdf" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

The RBA's housing market model explained

jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

What have we learnt since the financial crisis? RBA's John Simon

The housing market and the economy: RBA Governor Philip Lowe

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Only five percent of homes are in negative equity, the RBA Governor Philip Lowe advised in his speech to the AFR Business Summit.
"Our estimate is that currently, less than five percent of indebted owner-occupier households have negative equity, and the vast bulk of these households continue to meet their mortgage obligations," Lowe said.
Lowe says one factor that has helped is that the share of new loans with high loan-to-valuation ratios (LVRs) has declined substantially (Graph 15 below).
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/6/Graph15-RBA.jpg" alt="">
"The nature of Australian mortgages – in which there is an incentive to make prepayments – has also helped," Lowe added.
Lowe expects a further tightening of the labour market, which will see a gradual increase in wages growth and faster income growth.
"This should provide a counterweight to the effect on spending of lower housing prices," Lowe suggested.
"Taking these various considerations into account, the adjustment in our housing market is manageable for the overall economy."
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Only 5% of homes in negative equity says RBA

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Home loan credit conditions tightened more than was probably required, the RBA governor Philip Lowe said today. 
"Overall, the evidence is that a tightening in credit supply has contributed to the slowdown in credit growth," he told the AFR Business Summit.
"The main story, though, is one of reduced demand for credit, rather than reduced supply.
"Even though the slowing in credit growth is largely a demand story, we are watching credit availability closely.
"It is perhaps stating the obvious to say that we want lenders who are both prudent and who are prepared to take risk.
"As lenders recalibrated their risk controls last year, the balance may have moved too far in some cases.
"This meant that credit conditions tightened more than was probably required.
"Now, as lenders continue to seek the right balance, we need to remember that it is important that banks are prepared to take credit risk.
"And it's important that they have the capacity to manage that risk well.
"If they can't do this, then the economy will suffer," Dr Lowe said.
"It has also been apparent through our liaison that some lenders became more cautious last year." "No discussion of housing prices is complete without touching on interest rates and the availability of finance. The low interest rates over the past decade did increase people's capacity to borrow and made it more attractive to borrow to buy an asset whose price was appreciating. But the increase in housing prices is not just about low interest rates."
Dr Lowe noted that recently there had been much attention paid to the availability of credit.
"This attention has coincided with a noticeable slowing in housing credit growth, especially to investors (Graph 10).
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<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/images/sp-gov-2019-03-06-graph10.gif" alt="Graph 10: Housing credit growth">
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"It is clear there has been a progressive tightening in lending standards over recent years.
"The RBA's liaison suggests that, on average, the maximum loan size offered to new borrowers has fallen by around 20 per cent since 2015.
"This reflects a combination of factors, including more accurate reporting of expenses, larger discounts applied to certain types of income and more comprehensive reporting of other liabilities.
"Even so, only around 10 per cent of people borrow the maximum they are offered.
"Sensibly, most people borrow less than what they are offered, so the effect of this reduction in borrowing capacity has not been particularly large."
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Home loan credit conditions tightened more than was probably required: RBA

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The March meeting of the RBA has seen the cash rate remain on hold at 1.5 percent.
It has now stayed at record lows for 28 consecutive meetings. 
The last time the rate changed was in August 2016.
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless says there is a growing possibility that rates could fall later this year. 
"The strong labour market report for January was likely a key factor in keeping rates on hold, however in balance, wages have grown at a consistently low rate growth and inflation remains stubbornly below the target range," Lawless said.
"The sharp slowdown in residential construction activity and relatively benign retail trade figures may be hinting that weak housing market conditions are already spilling over to the broader economy. 
"No doubt the RBA are tracking housing market conditions very closely, watching for any further deterioration that might signal a dent to consumer spirits, resulting in less spending, more saving and a further pull back in residential construction activity. 
"CoreLogic reported another broad based decline in dwelling values in February, down 0.7% nationally, however the good news was that the rate of decline has eased over the past two months and housing affordability is showing a consistent improvement across most housing markets.  
"The performance of the housing sector over coming months should provide some clues about future monetary policy decisions. 
"A further deterioration in the pace or geographic scope of declines could tip the balance in favour of a rate cut later this year as the RBA becomes wary of the wealth effect moving into reverse.
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RBA hold rates at record lows in March 

Minutes of February 2019 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Governor chose to repeat the statement’s concluding paragraph which explains the policy decision with the same words that he used in December despite lower forecasts and recognition of downside risks.
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As expected, the Board of the Reserve Bank decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. At the February meeting, the Board discusses the executive’s revised forecasts which will be released in the February Statement of Monetary Policy on February 8.
However, in recent statements, the Governor has provided readers with growth and inflation forecasts and this was repeated in today’s statement.
For 2019, forecast growth has been revised down from 3 ¼ per cent to 3 per cent, and 2020, from 3 per cent to “a little less” due to slower growth in exports of resources.
It is important that this 3 per cent growth forecast is above the assessed trend rate of 2 ¾ per cent, and the implied 2020 forecast is likely to be around trend.
If a central bank is forecasting above trend growth, then it is highly unlikely to adopt an easing bias, and indeed the chances are still likely that the Governor will persist with his assessment that even though rates are likely to remain steady for some time, the next move is likely to be up.
The inflation forecasts were also revised with the underlying inflation forecast for 2019 reduced from 2 ¼ per cent to 2 per cent, while the 2020 forecast remains at 2 ¼ per cent. Hence the Bank is maintaining the view that inflation will gradually move into the 2 to 3 per cent band, although it will take somewhat longer than previously expected.
There are good reasons why the Bank lowered its growth forecasts. Firstly, while it still assesses the outlook for global growth as “reasonable”, it recognises that “downside risks have increased”. Secondly, it has made some significant changes around the household sector and housing.
For some time, Westpac has argued that the fall in house prices in Sydney and Melbourne will be associated with a negative wealth effect.
In the RBA’s previous writings, they tended to dismiss any wealth effect, but in today’s statement the Governor notes “the main domestic uncertainty remains around the outlook for household spending and the effect of falling housing prices in some cities”.
In linking house prices with household spending, he appears to be recognising the risk of a negative wealth effect.
Westpac has also argued that residential housing construction will be a drag on growth in both 2019 and 2020. The RBA has not supported that view, referring to a strong pipeline. But, recent falls in dwelling approvals, including for detached housing, clearly point to a significant drag on growth from the housing construction downturn.
The statement continues to point to “rising business investment” which in the December statement was linked to “business conditions are positive”. The Governor has obviously decided that the strong negative signal from the recent NAB business survey was insufficient at this stage to review the business investment outlook.
Given that the survey was taken in early January, Westpac thinks that approach is reasonable but there will be considerable interest to see whether future surveys send a more positive signal.
The Governor maintains his positive rhetoric around the labour market and confirms its forecast that the unemployment rate will fall to 4 ¾ per cent by the end of 2020. He also expects a further lift in wages over time, supporting household incomes.
Financial conditions in the US attract some attention, although the recent sharp decline in equity prices is noted to have been partly reversed. He also observes that market participants no longer expect the FOMC to be tightening monetary policy.
The Sydney and Melbourne housing markets are assessed as “going through a period of adjustment”, and credit conditions have tightened.
This is the approach which he has taken in previous statements but it is very significant that he has begun to recognise a potential wealth effect, meaning that the price adjustment may have implications for the real economy.
With a more cautious view on the wealth effect and recognition that dwelling construction will contract, Westpac’s GDP forecast for 2019 and 2020 is 2.6%, with recent data releases pointing to downside risks even for those modest numbers.
Finally, the Governor chose to repeat the concluding paragraph which explains the policy decision with the same words that he used in December despite lower forecasts and recognition of downside risks.
Notably, it includes the sentence “Further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual.”
Conclusion
With these revised forecasts, the RBA is clearly less comfortable with its previous positive outlook. Its growth forecasts remain significantly above Westpac’s own view.
With our forecasts of 2.6% growth in 2019 and 2020, it still seems that the more likely outcome will be for steady rates, even if as we expect, the RBA will eventually have to adopt growth forecasts much closer to Westpac’s current view.
Westpac confirms its long-held forecast that the RBA cash rate will remain on hold in 2019 and 2020.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist for Westpac
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Reserve Bank lowers growth and inflation forecasts but remains confident: Bill Evans

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Amid uncertainty in the financial markets following the Royal Commission report, it was business as usual for the RBA, who kept the official cash rate at 1.5 percent for another month.
Their recently released chart pack, which details figures from the world economy to Australia's financial figures, yielded no further information, just further declines in some key areas.
Below are four charts which highlight the continued declines.
One of the most important aspect is the housing price to housing debt ratio, which has been tracking in the opposite, and negative, direction for months.
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/6/RBA-Chart1.jpg" alt="">
The decline in house prices has led to consumer sentiment tracking toward the average, a figure we haven't seen since since late 2017.
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/6/RBA-Chart3.jpg" alt="">
The <a href="/news/apartments-drive-dwelling-approval-decline-back-to-2013-levels">recent dwelling approval figures</a>, which showed an 8.4 percent decline in December nationwide, will have been a big factor in the RBA's decision to hold rates.
Its surprise December decline bring the seasonally adjusted annual decline to 22 percent.
The annual decline has been driven by apartment approvals, which have now gone back 38 percent over the 12 months to December 2018.
House approvals have declined 11 percent in that time period.
In trends terms, dwelling approvals have now fallen for 14 straight months, down 39 percent from the November 2017 peak.
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/6/RBA-Chart2.jpg" alt="">
There continues to be a gap between household consumption and disposable income.
A household's disposable income hasn't been higher than its consumption since 2014.
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/6/Rba-Chart4.jpg" alt="">
 
 
 
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