<p data-end="524" data-start="374">Rockdale has long been characterized as a suburb on the cusp. Well-located, well-connected, but historically underserved by modern apartment offerings.</p>

<p data-end="956" data-start="526">It has everything going for it: outstanding connectivity to the Sydney CBD, just four train stops to Central Station, strong local amenity anchored by Roc​kdale Plaza and a growing main-street dining scene, and enviable proximity to Brighton-Le-Sands. The six-kilometre beachfront is lined with bayside restaurants, cafés, and walking paths, giving residents a lifestyle typically associated with much more expensive coastal suburbs.</p>

<p data-end="1241" data-start="958">What Rock​dale has lacked is high-quality contemporary apartments. Most existing developments date back several decades, with floorplans that no longer support modern living needs, and buildings constructed long before today’s standards in engineering, efficiency, and sustainability.</p>

<p data-end="1627" data-start="1243">Lender, fund manager and apartment developer Princeton identified the gap early. Seeing all the right ingredients in Rockd​ale, transport, lifestyle, retail, and affordability, they set out to deliver what the suburb was missing. Their answer is <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marque-rockdale-602-608-princes-highway-rockdale-nsw-2216">Marque Rockdale</a>, a collection of 58 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments now nearing completion just a short walk from Ro​ckdale Plaza, home to over 50 specialist retailers and anchored by&nbsp;Woolworths, Big W and Aldi.</p>

<p data-end="1627" data-start="1243">[smartcode_project:default project_id=136442 project_image_fid=355216]</p>

<p data-end="1847" data-start="1680">Understanding they would be resetting the benchmark for the area, Princeton focused on ensuring buyers received best-in-class quality, longevity, and protection.</p>

<p data-end="2400" data-start="1849">A major step was securing the sought-after Latent Defects Insurance policy from Resilience Insurance. This policy protects apartment buyers from structural or waterproofing defects for the first 10 years of the building’s lifecycle. Crucially, it is first-response insurance, meaning that if an issue arises, the insurer pays immediately for remediation—rather than waiting for lengthy investigations to determine fault before work can begin. For purchasers, it offers an unprecedented layer of security rarely seen in Sydney apartment projects.</p>

<p data-end="2845" data-start="2402">During construction, independent building inspection firm SDSS has been providing Technical Inspection Services, bringing highly specialised construction experts on-site at key stages to ensure workmanship meets the highest standards. The project is being built by Coplex, an iCIRT-rated construction company, and throughout the build SDSS has frequently referred to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marque-rockdale-602-608-princes-highway-rockdale-nsw-2216">Marque Rockdale</a> as one of the best projects currently on their books.</p>

<p data-end="3134" data-start="2884">Princeton also doubled down on comfort, acoustics, and livability.&nbsp;As well as being the only building along Princes Highway with a landscaped buffer between the building and the road, Princeton has purposefully included double-glazed windows in all apartments to reduce noise.</p>

<p data-end="3134" data-start="2884">Apartments feature double-glazed, noise-reducing windows and ducted air conditioning in every residence.&nbsp;In addition to the project’s transport convenience, Princeton has partnered with GoGet Car Share to provide a dedicated GoGet vehicle housed permanently within the building. Residents will receive a free annual GoGet membership, paying only usage fees, offering a flexible alternative to owning a second car and enhancing the project’s sustainability credentials.</p>

<p data-end="3134" data-start="2884">[smartcode_project:default project_id=136442 project_image_fid=277075]</p>

<p data-end="3271" data-start="3136">Residents will enjoy an exclusive rooftop oasis, purpose-designed as an extension of their living space. The communal rooftop includes BBQ facilities and outdoor entertaining areas, a&nbsp;pergola-shaded dining zone, a dedicated children’s play space, and a landscaped herb garden.</p>

<p data-end="3558" data-start="3424">Princeton and Coplex is approaching completion of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marque-rockdale-602-608-princes-highway-rockdale-nsw-2216">Marque Rockdale</a>, and are expecting residents to move in early in the new year. The mix of apartment configurations and price points have been a hit with young professionals, those who need to commute to the CBD, and families who appreciate doorstep amenity.</p>

<p>“Marque is a place where residents will be proud to call it home," Princeton Head of Development George Young says.</p>

<p>"We’ve worked really hard with Coplex and our design team to deliver an incredible building for the future home owners to make their own. The homes are all designed to allow the residents to make it their own, a place to belong and live a stylish urban life."</p>

<p data-end="3558" data-start="3424">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=136442]</p>


Joel Robinson

Marque Rockdale sets a new standard of apartment living in Sydney's south

<p>Plans to revitalize the&nbsp;long-established Benowa Gardens Shopping Centre into a mixed-use community combining living, shopping, dining, health and wellbeing facilities, have been proposed to the Gold Coast City Council.</p>

<p>The Benowa Gardens Urban Village proposal by Benowa Gardens Holdings seeks to transform the 17,660 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/203-ashmore-road-benowa-qld-4217">203 Ashmore Road</a> into a contemporary, sustainable destination that reflects global trends in modern community design while retaining the familiar local character residents value.</p>

<p>The site is bordered by Ashmore and Benowa Roads and Carrara, with ready access to Pindara private hospital, four schools, TAFE, sports fields and the nearby Botanic Gardens.</p>

<p>Benowa Gardens Holdings is seeking a preliminary Council approval only for its proposed masterplan and variations to the site’s Neighbourhood Centre zoning.&nbsp;<br />
Formal Public Exhibition commenced Friday and also marks the start of comprehensive community consultation with surroundings residents, schools, P&amp;Cs, existing retailers, nearby sporting clubs, arts groups and Botanic Gardens volunteers.</p>

<p>Designed by Neylan Architecture, the masterplan envisions around 413 new apartments, complemented by upgraded retail, dining, and wellness amenities as part of 10,000 sqm of retail, and 9,630 sqm of office space/medical suites.</p>

<p>The development will feature green open spaces, shaded promenades, landscaped terraces, pedestrian walkways, and expanded healthcare and lifestyle services in synergy with the neighbouring Pindara Private Hospital and local schools.</p>

<p><img alt="Benowa" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="244f4d54-2e67-4141-92b8-78d5735f47c2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-26%20at%2012.47.34%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=FmF5lzhpwVZc7POsdB770TJ_Bf2c0od8" /></p>

<p>“This concept embraces the way people increasingly want to live - safely, conveniently, and within strong local communities,” said Patrick Lu, Director of Benowa Gardens Holding.</p>

<p>“Benowa Gardens will set a new benchmark for integrated living on the Gold Coast. It’s a thoughtful, community-minded evolution that brings global best practice in urban design to one of the city’s most established areas.”</p>

<p>Lu said this isn’t just a redevelopment, it’s a renewal with purpose.</p>

<p>“Benowa Gardens has served the community for decades. Our goal is to ensure it continues to do so for generations to come, as a lively, connected Urban Village where people can truly live, work and thrive. We’re already talking to school leaders and the community to seek their feedback on our proposal, and have taken on board their ideas to improve student safety with additional “traffic calming” measures on Carrara Street. We’re conducting meaningful and sincere consultations and want to play our role in preserving and enhancing the local community."</p>

<p>The proposed redevelopment aims to deliver tangible benefits across the Benowa and wider Gold Coast community, including:</p>

<ul>
	<li>Improvement of retail amenity, to capture the under-served local market demand and keep the local business at their local shopping centre.</li>
	<li>Housing diversity; offering a range of apartment types for key workers, downsizers, and local families who wish to remain in the area.</li>
	<li>Enhanced shopping and dining; revitalised retail spaces designed to support local businesses and attract more visitors.</li>
	<li>Health and wellbeing access; additional medical and wellness amenities to complement existing local facilities.</li>
	<li>Improved traffic flow and access; two new access points, upgraded intersections, upgrade pedestrian pathway’s signal and proposed upgrade of pedestrian and cycle connections/space to improve safety and convenience, especially for school children.</li>
	<li>Environmental sustainability; energy-efficient design, green rooftops, and water-sensitive landscaping to reduce emissions and enhance comfort.</li>
	<li>Local jobs and investment; supporting hundreds of construction and long-term roles while stimulating local economic growth.</li>
</ul>

<p>The group behind the project boasts extensive experience in the property development industry, both in Australia and international markets. Over the past 23 years, the group has been involved in the development and management of a diverse portfolio of assets including residential dwellings, shopping centres, bulky-goods stores, community and medical facilities, childcare centres, offices, hotels, and taverns, across Brisbane, Ipswich, and the Gold Coast.</p>


Benowa Gardens to become new mixed-use urban village

<p>Demand for townhouses in Melbourne’s inner west has surged as buyers seek the elusive combination of space, affordability, and location.&nbsp;</p>

<p>With family-first apartments increasingly rare and standalone homes often out of reach, townhouses have emerged as the new sweet spot, delivering generous living areas with lower maintenance needs within close proximity to the Melbourne CBD.&nbsp;</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/kings-lane-south-kingsville-50-58-new-street-south-kingsville-vic-3015">Kings Lane</a>, the new under-construction townhouse development by the family-owned developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/blue-run">Blue Run</a>&nbsp;in South Kingsville, responds directly to this trend. Comprising just 25 residences designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, the project offers a compelling alternative to both apartment downsizers and family upsizers. With three-bedroom homes priced under $1 million, it presents one of the area’s rare attainable pathways to townhouse living less than eight kilometres from the CBD.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145042 project_image_fid=355147]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/south-kingsville-vic-3015">South Kingsville</a> itself is quietly becoming one of Melbourne’s most dynamic pockets of urban renewal. Flanked by the established appeal of Yarraville, Newport and Williamstown, the suburb balances quiet, village-like streetscapes with major infrastructure upgrades and a growing slate of retail, dining and lifestyle amenity.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Kings Lane occupies a well-connected site at 50–58 New Street, just off Blackshaws Road and within walking distance of the emerging Union Quarter precinct, a major retail destination anchored by Woolworths, specialty food outlets and wellness services.</p>

<p>A 400-metre stroll brings residents to the Vernon Street shops, a local favourite known for its mix of independent grocers, cafes and family-run eateries. For broader shopping options, Altona Gate Shopping Centre and Yarraville Square are both within a short drive. Spotswood IGA and the Williamstown retail strip further broaden the convenience of daily essentials.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145042 project_image_fid=355139]</p>

<p>Dining options in the area lean toward eclectic and community-driven, with standouts like Rocco’s Deli, Dad and Dave’s, and Pizza d’ASPORTO offering a range of casual and elevated menus. Cafés such as Hudson Road Wine &amp; Beer and Blacksheep Coffee add to the lively yet local feel of the neighbourhood.</p>

<p>Green space is another hallmark of life at Kings Lane. Edwards Reserve is close enough for morning walks or casual sport, while larger parks like Newport Lakes, Yarraville Gardens, and Cruickshank Park are all a few minutes’ drive away. More than half of the nine-hectares of new green space or parkland being created as part of the West Gate tunnel works is located just at the end of New Street, the same street as Kings Lane.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>For those with school-age children, South Kingsville is home to a range of quality childcare centres and schools, including Kingsville Primary, Spotswood Primary, and Williamstown North Primary. Community Children’s childcare and South Kingsville Preschool are nearby, making the suburb particularly attractive to young families.</p>

<p>Transport links continue to improve, with Spotswood Station and the West Gate Freeway both within a five-minute radius. Future upgrades, including the proposed sky rail for Newport and Spotswood, and the delivery of the West Gate Tunnel project, promise even better access to the CBD and Melbourne Airport in the years to come.</p>

<p>Kings Lane's 25 all-electric townhouses are currently under construction, and will complete in late 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145042]</p>


Staff Writer

Kings Lane townhouses offers rare value in Melbourne's thriving inner west

<p>Developer-builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/billbergia">Billbergia</a> has set a new apartment price record for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/rhodes-nsw-2138">Rhodes</a>, a suburb the company has been instrumental in transforming over the past two decades.</p>

<p>The milestone follows the delivery of thousands of apartments across the harbourside peninsula, culminating in the $4.5 million sale of a 220 sqm penthouse in the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/rhodes-central-oasis-39-marquet-street-rhodes-nsw-2138">Rhodes Central Oasis</a> building, which Billbergia completed earlier this year. It is the first apartment in Rhodes to surpass not only the $4 million mark for settled sales, but also the $3 million mark, eclipsing the previous $2.75 million record set in 2021.</p>

<p>The purchaser had originally secured several apartments in the 40-storey tower off the plan as investments. During settlement, she spent more time in the Rhodes area and was so impressed with the building that she decided to downsize from her Northbridge home into the four-bedroom plus MPR penthouse.</p>

<p>The sale underscores the long-term work Billbergia has undertaken in Rhodes since the early 2000s. The company, rated 4.5 Gold Stars under the NSW iCIRT system, identifying it as one of the state’s most trustworthy and financially secure developers, was a pioneer of the area’s urban renewal. What was once a heavily industrial waterfront has become one of Sydney’s most successful examples of transit-oriented development.</p>

<p><img alt="Billbergia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="56093d7f-db18-42f4-bf9b-115bdf76f5f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-26%20at%2011.10.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pca77Mr.H83nwXbJexmaLUAqBewtQ7d9" /></p>

<p>Billbergia is now driving the peninsula’s next major evolution: the most ambitious project in its nearly four-decade history. They are planning the Rhodes Bay Masterplan, an eight-tower, mixed-use precinct on Leeds Street. Currently with the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority which is now championing large-scale projects across the state, the Rhodes Bay Masterplan lays the groundwork for a generational reshaping of this important pocket of Sydney’s Inner West.</p>

<p>The masterplan spans more than 31,000 sqm of amalgamated industrial land along the foreshore, land that has been privately held and inaccessible to the community for more than a century. According to Billbergia’s Development Director, Saul Moran, reclaiming this land for public use is central to the company’s vision.<br />
<br />
“What’s so exciting is that we have over 300 metres of privately-held industrialised waterfront, land that’s been locked away for more than 100 years, which we’re bringing back to the community,” he says. “It’s taken many years to assemble sites like these, and the goal now is to transform them into meaningful public space where new homes can be built in an integrated, amenity-rich setting.”</p>

<p>At full completion, the Rhodes Bay Masterplan is expected to deliver over 2000 apartments, with the first 1000 to be completed by 2029. Billbergia’s design focused on nine slender towers, so they could give back more to the ground plane. There will be more than 16,000sq m of new parkland and recreation space, including sports fields, a foreshore play area and waterfront green links. Around 14,600 sqm of retail is also proposed, extending the precinct’s role as a true mixed-use hub.</p>

<p><img alt="Rhodes Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="240ffc41-4f26-421a-9606-5c56f6fc2d93" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-26%20at%2011.05.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=BkBxZr7S8CAt1vgNa8AF3zjdc3YuVh0L" /></p>

<p>“Density only works when it’s paired with amenity, transport and open space, and that’s what’s made Rhodes such an amazing success story,” Moran says, adding that the demographic shift Billbergia has seen over the last two decades has informed their future development pipeline in the suburb.</p>

<p>“Rhodes has moved from being largely an investor market to a strong owner-occupier community,” Moran says. “There’s real demand for three-bedroom homes, flexible intergenerational layouts, and apartments people can grow into.”</p>

<p>&nbsp;“We’re designing taller, more slender towers to free up the ground level for sport, recreation and green space. High-density communities thrive when people have the best backyards in Australia, and that’s what we want to create here.”</p>

<p>Demand remains robust, evidenced by Billbergia’s recent results. “We achieved a record sale across the entirety of Rhodes Central just last week,” Moran says. “It shows the depth of confidence buyers have in what’s being built here.”</p>

<p>Billbergia’s vertically integrated model allows them to overcome the recent cost escalation and challenges in the build environment. “Having an in-house construction team lets us control feasibility, value management and quality from day one,” Moran says. “It’s critical in the current market, where construction escalation is at the forefront of every project’s viability.”</p>

<p>The company is also leveraging the NSW Government’s new Housing Delivery Authority process, which Moran describes as a more efficient pathway without compromising design standards.<br />
<br />
“We’re really applauding the NSW Government for its efforts to increase housing supply. There’s been a remarkable improvement in how they’re helping deliver more homes, more quickly.”</p>

<p>Billbergia has already commenced construction of Stage One of the Rhodes Bay masterplan. They will be lodging the State Significant Development Application before Christmas.</p>

<p>“We’re moving quickly, but with due care,” Moran says. “This is a generational precinct, and it needs to be done right.”</p>


Billbergia smashes suburb record as Rhodes transformation continues

<p>The sheer scale of the two skyscrapers at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/victoria-albert-broadbeach-20-albert-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">Victoria &amp; Albert</a>, soaring 40 and 64 storeys above the heart of Broadbeach, was always destined to deliver some of the highest and most luxurious apartments ever built in the suburb.</p>

<p>Now, builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/iris-capital">Iris Capital</a> has unveiled the Horizon Collection, a selection of residences with the largest floorplans and most commanding views in the towers. The three-bedroom apartments, starting from $4.64 million, include butler’s pantries, multi-purpose rooms, and, in some layouts, master retreats with private sitting areas.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107928 project_image_fid=3944]</p>

<p>The most prestigious apartments in the Horizon Collection are the sub-penthouses and penthouses. The two sub-penthouses on the 38th level of the Albert Tower are priced at $8.85 million.</p>

<p>Each features three bedrooms, a study, and a flexible multi-purpose room with a sliding partition that allows half the space to function as a games room.</p>

<p>The open-plan kitchen, living, and dining area, complete with a butler’s kitchen and private wine cellar, flows onto a full-width balcony framing panoramic coastal views.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107928 project_image_fid=3943]</p>

<p>There is now just one sub-penthouse for sale on the 62nd level of the Victoria Tower, with one already secured by an expat owner-occupier. The remaining sub-penthouse, priced at $8.95 million, offers four bedrooms and a wraparound balcony that captures panoramic views up and down the Coast. vistas from every angle.</p>

<p>Crowning each tower is a full-floor penthouse offering multiple expansive indoor and outdoor living and entertaining spaces. Atop the Victoria building is Oceania, which measures over 735 sqm of living space, and Kurrara atop the Albert Tower, which is almost 800 sqm. They each have four bedrooms, including a master and guest suites, a full 360-degree panorama of the Gold Coast, and all the bells and whistles expected of a luxury penthouse. They are priced from a little over $18 million.</p>

<p>“Every detail, every finish has been thoughtfully considered to imbue the penthouses with the ultimate sense of luxury,” says Susan Rossi, Director of Interior Design at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/dbi">DBI</a>, who led both the architecture and interiors for V&amp;A. “We shaped these skyhomes to embody the spirit of Gold Coast luxury.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107928 project_image_fid=234091]</p>

<p>Victoria &amp; Albert, colloquially known as V&amp;A, is the flagship Gold Coast development by the Sydney-based Iris Capital. Led by developer and hotelier Sam Arnaout, Iris Capital acquired the landmark Niecon Plaza site in 2021. At the time, Arnaout described the company’s expansion into Queensland as a strategic move to capitalise on one of Australia’s strongest growth markets.</p>

<p>“We were initially looking to expand into Victoria, but the massive migration to the regions that followed the pandemic created a new dynamic across the Australian market,” Arnaout said.</p>

<p>“From a strategic point of view, Queensland — and the Gold Coast in particular — is the perfect fit for our business. The fundamentals here are strong: genuine employment growth, high net migration, and an undersupply of apartments driven by strong demand. The Gold Coast has matured into a thriving, progressive regional city with a fantastic future.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107928 project_image_fid=234097]</p>

<p>Across its two towers, V&amp;A will deliver 425 luxury apartments, supported by a suite of resort-style resident amenities. These include a subtropical podium featuring a 25-metre lap pool, gym, yoga deck, residents’ lounge, kids’ play area, zen garden, and barbecue terraces with outdoor dining spaces.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a> Queensland Director David Higgins, who has managed sales at V&amp;A since its 2021 launch, says the project has set a new benchmark for Broadbeach’s luxury apartment market. Colliers Queensland Director David Higgins, who has managed sales at V&amp;A since its 2021 launch, says the project has set a new benchmark for Broadbeach’s luxury apartment market.</p>

<p>“The premium market has definitely spoken, with V&amp;A having now reached over half a billion dollars in presales since our launch,” Higgins says, adding that over 65 per cent of V&amp;A is now sold.</p>

<p>“Our buyers continue to validate the success of the Victoria &amp; Albert development vision and the luxury amenity that comes along with their apartment purchase. Of course, Broadbeach’s most walkable location, just 100m from the Broadbeach surfing beach, makes this luxury apartment a compelling addition to your real estate portfolio.”</p>

<p>Last year, Iris Capital brought construction in-house through its new arm, Iris Built. Completion of the 40-level Albert Tower is scheduled for late 2027, with the 64-level Victoria Tower, the taller of the two, expected to follow in mid-2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107928]</p>


Victoria & Albert’s Horizon Collection takes Broadbeach living to new heights

Property Prices

<html><body>
<p>Australia is a nation full of highly confused real estate consumers. They’re befuddled because there is so much conflicting data on matters relating to residential property, especially on prices.</p>
<p>The confusion arises because of the widespread acceptance of anything labeled “research” as fact. Media these days is driven by under-resourced journalists and there’s a growing tendency to recycle press releases as articles, without the scrutiny that once was common in the industry.</p>
<p>Back in the day, publishing a press release (which, by definition, is someone’s propaganda) verbatim was a sacking offence. These days it’s mainstream journalism, especially in real estate. Most of the online “news” services that send out daily bulletins consist almost entirely of contributed material. The journalistic content is close to zero. </p>
<p>Any press release from a name research company featuring price data will be published without question. If the press release says Sydney prices are still soaring, that will be the headline in multiple media outlets, including some of our biggest newspapers.</p>
<p>The problem is that price statistics are often very rubbery figures. One of the ways we know this is by comparing price data from multiple sources. The differences and contradictions are quite stark. </p>
<p>Recently I wrote a report which focused on the latest price data for the eight capital cities from four different research sources. The areas where they disagreed were far more numerous than the ones where they were broadly in concert.</p>
<p>Two sources claimed Sydney prices were still growing at an annual rate around 11 percent, while the other two said the annual growth rate was down to 1.2 percent and 2.6 percent.</p>
<p>One source said Darwin house prices were unchanged while another recorded an 8 percent decline. Two sources said Canberra apartment prices were rising and the other two reported they were falling. All four agreed that Darwin apartment prices were falling but the rate of decline ranged from 0.2 percent to almost 10 percent.</p>
<p>Annual price growth for Melbourne houses ranged from 7 percent to 15 percent. One said the capital city average was 2.7 percent annual growth in house prices while another claimed it was 8.2 percent.</p>
<p>There are myriad other examples.</p>
<p>We know that different research companies have different methodologies and parameters, but consumers are entitled to think that the movement of prices in a particular location is a mater of fact: when media reports one week that they’re rising and the next that they’re falling, confusion is understandable.</p>
<p>It seems no one in media has noticed the discrepancies.</p>
<p>And now we have the Reserve Bank revealing that it disregarded price data from one of its regular sources. Apparently a change in methodology resulted in the research entity overstating price growth in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p>At the time those figures were published, I challenged them because I thought they were clearly wrong. They contradicted known trends in the market and also conflicted with data from other more credible sources. </p>
<p>But media outlets across the nation published those erroneous figures as fact. There were numerous headlines declaring the fading Sydney boom had been reactivated somehow, miraculously, in contradiction of all previous data.</p>
<p>Inevitably this was accompanied by observers shouting about bubbles, affordability crises and young Australians priced out of the market, doomed to a lifetime of renting.</p>
<p>Worse, one of the big-name global ratings agencies rushed out a warning about the re-inflation of the Australian house price bubble, based purely on a single month’s price figures from one research source. It says something about the credibility of the ratings organisation that the basis for them issuing international press statements was so flimsy.</p>
<p>The message for real estate consumers is to take real estate statistics with several grains of salt. It’s alarming how many people base investment decisions on published data from a single source, reported verbatim by an unquestioning media.</p>
<p>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></p>
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Property price statistics are often rubbery figures: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">There are 3 key drivers of property prices.</p>
<div>
<strong>(i) Supply</strong> - the rate of construction and the properties listed for sale on the market;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong>(ii) Interest rates</strong> - the cost of borrowing; and</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong>(iii) Population growth</strong> - immigration, natural population growth (births minus deaths), and interstate migration.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Or, as depicted in his infographic:</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JfAMyhsEwDU/XsC1SuAaGqI/AAAAAAAA1xE/oWHfOVu6Wt4Dg29nArHLDV26HjXIy8SaACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/FIN.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="445" data-original-width="791"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div><em>Source: Tim Boyle, Finalytics</em></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div>People often state that the unemployment rate is critical, but this argument isn't backed up by any hard statistics.<br><br>In fact the last couple of times the unemployment rate spiked housing prices soared the following year, as pointed out by Stuart Wemyss of ProSolution, <em>Game of Mates</em> author Dr. Cameron Murray, and others:</div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mGeIhomU-Rw/XsDARe3SG3I/AAAAAAAA1xg/AF7pCtVj6yImNusAc2_soCsN-9f2dwlHQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="423" data-original-width="738"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div>There's also an enormous fiscal stimulus washing through, comfortably dwarfing anything we've seen in recent decades. </div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SwOd64SloIQ/XsDAdNa9cVI/AAAAAAAA1xk/IA2iutyq4sE-ulOJVokqdP6KWZMNVqNCwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Stim.jpg" width="640" height="638" data-original-height="738" data-original-width="739"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><br><strong>Boyle's 3 drivers today</strong><br><br>In that context, here's what's happening with Boyle's 3 key drivers today.<br><br>Supply is extremely tight at the moment.<br><br>Dwelling construction is plunging towards 70-year lows and vendors aren't listing either.<br><br><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ituPSwbTdvU/XrNkMZcBltI/AAAAAAAA1lM/lSj4XGqL1Gcc-lP5wKWKzjVlXG5YWXJ-gCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CL2.jpg" width="640" height="386"><br><br></p>
<div><em>Source: CoreLogic</em></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><br>Lending rates, meanwhile, are at the lowest level in modern history.<br><br><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HHbGid402-g/XrNlXdwQxnI/AAAAAAAA1lc/Fd54mmUYX1kJWedMT-5JdHyEbCZFOZD3ACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CL3.jpg" width="640" height="398"><br><br></p>
<div>This effectively allows borrowers to take on bigger mortgages, as I showed in my recent post on lending trends.<br><br>ANZ have just noted the same thing:<br><br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bGysfQwD18o/XsDAo9GSxRI/AAAAAAAA1xs/Vx2-pm8vZHE32TUM-20dz-8UmDRRD4DyQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/ANZ1.jpg" width="640" height="448" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1143"></div>
<br>The big unknown factor at this stage is <strong>population growth.</strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>My base case expectation or scenario is that within the next few months the powerful interests such as the Property Council, Australia's universities, the airlines, Tourism Australia, and big business at the top end of town will have forced the government's hand to reopen the borders, albeit with a period of enforced quarantine.</div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div>As for the thesis that things will be totally different after COVID-19...well as a gallant but struggling home-schooler I reckon that's total garbage!<br><br>People can't wait to get back and out to spend, socialise, travel, go to work, and holiday again.</div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><br>It's just the way we're designed, we're pack animals.<br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-r9TZrsC6zMw/XsC1SYxsobI/AAAAAAAA1xA/_k9XLZBNywgB_0ApBK_96zfH9-jzlSPNACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/JT.jpg" width="640" height="308" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="747"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>And moreover, Australia will likely be seen as one of the safest and most desirable countries on earth in which to live.</div>
<div>
<br><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
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The three drivers of property prices: Pete Wargent

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<p>With another federal election now passed all the political rhetoric about infrastructure will be buried until the next election in three years’ time. Sadly, in Australia our elected governments are only interested in the one thing – taxes.</p>
<p>Since the early 1980’s politicians have conveniently discussed the construction of a high – speed rail link along the east coast where typically nothing has happened, although you can be guaranteed that it will be mentioned again prior to the next federal election. In 2013 the High Speed Rail Study Phase 2 Report estimated that a conventional High Speed Rail Express trip from Sydney to Melbourne would take 2 hours and 44 minutes (about the same time it takes to check into an airport). Sydney to Brisbane would take 2 hours and 37 minutes. Again these reports end up in the too hard basket.</p>
<p>Sydney is now recording the highest prices ever recorded with no signs of easing as the official cash rate keeps going down and this will be the case for easily the next decade. What is urgently required is a high – speed rail link from Sydney to Newcastle and Sydney to the Southern Highlands then to Wollongong. This is the only feasible way that property prices will ease given it’s now urgently required that these three cities are inter – connected.</p>
<p>In 2013 CoreLogic reported that the number of Australian suburbs with a median home value in excess of one million dollars was 264. Their latest data now indicates that this has now jumped to 570.</p>
<p>To provide a frightening case study in June 1992 I sold a home in Ourimbah Road Mosman for $320,000. Every two years I provide the owners with an updated weekly rental and value as the subject property is in a Superannuation Fund. In 2002, our estimated value was $775,000 to $800,00 with a rental of $600.00 to $700.00 per week. In 2006, our estimated value was $1,150,000 to $1,250,000 and the rental $900.00 to $925.00 per week. In 2014, our estimated value was $1,550,000 to $1,600,000 and the rental $1,500.00 to $1,600.00 per week. This week I assessed the property for 2016, our estimated value was $2,300,000 to $2,500,000 and the weekly rental was now $1,800.00 to $2,000.00 per week.</p>
<p>Little wonder the retiring Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens had plenty to say this week on the Australian economy in his farewell speech. Ultimately, low interest rates could only do their job when “someone somewhere has both the balance sheet capacity and the willingness to take on more debt and spend.” Obviously aimed at the federal government to start building better infrastructure in Australia. Private sector debt in Australia for companies equates to 125 per cent of GDP where the government’s debt sits at 40 per cent of GDP.</p>
<p>It’s quite simple that the Sydney property market needs to expand to Newcastle, Hunter Valley, Southern Highlands and Wollongong. Our federal government is spending money on public servants and social services with very little going into new infrastructure which would then drive development, employment and ease the ever growing property prices. Sydney in this instance would be the perfect test case to identify that if you get all the market machinations right you can ease property prices.</p>
<p>The only problem with this is that nobody wants to push and prod the elected governments of the day into direct action. It’s high time politicians became accountable instead of prime ministers claiming the mantle as being the infrastructure prime minister. In a report on High Speed Rail I read: “fast trains to connect the eastern seaboard cities of Melbourne, Canberra, Sydney and Brisbane are feasible, practical and profitable today. The project can be done for about $30 billion, about a quarter of the cost estimated on old paradigms in 2013. And it can be done in less than seven years, not the 30 to 35 years previously suggested.”</p>
<p>“The trains could be the 21st century equivalent of the Snowy Mountains Scheme, and would need little or no direct government funding.”</p>
<p>So one needs to ask the question – why then is nothing happening? Unfortunately, the answer may well be that Australian politicians have no train of thought.</p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 47</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 42</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 51</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 41</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 41</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 44</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 2</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 7</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 10</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 18</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 17</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 16</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 2</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 7</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 8</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 25</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 20</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 20</p>
<p><em>ROBERT SIMEON is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. </em></p>
<p><em>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000.</em></p>
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Blame our governments for high property prices: Robert Simeon

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<p class="Body">Generalisations about property markets are a major source of misleading information for investors.</p>
<p class="Body">The worst examples usually emanate from economists who speak about “the Australian property market” as a single homogenous entity. </p>
<p class="Body">A statement such as “Australian house prices rose 7 percent last year” implies there was 7 percent growth across the nation, when it reality there were a few locations with double-digit growth, some with minor movement, many where prices hardly moved at all and others where prices went backwards, in some cases a lot.</p>
<p class="Body">We’ve had three years of empty rhetoric about property prices “soaring” and bubbles emerging, all based on a long-overdue revival of the Sydney market and action in some parts of Melbourne.</p>
<p class="Body">Even speaking about what happened or will happen to prices in a single major city is too much generalization to be of any use to buyers and sellers.</p>
<p class="Body">The entity described as “the Sydney property market” is a place with over 700 suburbs, with markets ranging from $370,000 units in Liverpool to $900,000 houses in Rouse Hill to top-end locations like Mosman where the median house price is $3 million.</p>
<p class="Body">Distilling all of that and more into a statement such as “Sydney property prices rose 3.6 percent in May” is the hallmark of lazy, incompetent analysts whose primary interest is publicity rather than being useful to consumers.</p>
<p class="Body">A study of the latest Market Monitor from the Real Estate Institute of Queensland provides plenty of evidence that generalised single-figure numbers to describe a large city are both pointless and misleading.</p>
<p class="Body">The report finds that the median house price in the Brisbane City LGA rose 6.1 percent in the past year. That’s the figure that 99% of media would report, indicating that Brisbane has a solid market but one that isn’t booming the way Sydney did until recently.</p>
<p class="Body">But Market Monitor delves deeper and provides figures for individual suburbs, revealing there are plenty of places which did a lot better than the generalised figure and a few where median prices were in reverse.</p>
<p class="Body">Middle ring areas in the Brisbane Southside precinct did well in the past year, including Coorparoo (up 11 percent), Holland Park West (up 12 percent), Macgregor (up 17 percent), Sunnybank Hills (up 12 percent), Eight Mile Plains (up 10 percent), Mansfield (up 11 percent), Wishart (up 15 percent) and Robertson (up almost 20 percent).</p>
<p class="Body">Similar areas on Brisbane City’s Northside have also out-performed, including Banyo (up 17 percent), Grange (up 16 percent), Hendra (up 13 percent), Wooloowin (up 16 percent), Sandgate (up 17%) and Mitchelton (up 11 percent).</p>
<p class="Body">In contrast, there is evidence of falling values in upmarket areas like Hamilton, Ascot, St Lucia, Teneriffe and Hawthorne, all suburbs with median house prices above $1 million. But the median price for New Farm (median house price $1.5 million) is up 15 percent.</p>
<p class="Body">The report also shows the impact of over-building of inner-city apartments, with the median unit price down 1.4 percent in the CBD, down 4.5 percent in Fortitude Valley and down 1.7 percent in West End. Median weekly rents have fallen in the past year in several of the inner-city unit markets, according to the REIQ data.</p>
<p class="Body">Heading south to the Logan City part of Greater Brisbane, the generalised figure indicates the median house price has risen only 4 percent in 12 months. But suburbs with annual growth above 8 percent include Browns Plains, Heritage Park, Loganlea, Waterford and Waterford West. Logan Central, Forestdale and Woodridge all had annual growth in the 13-15% range.</p>
<p class="Body">Logan City’s opposite number in Brisbane’s far north is the Moreton Bay Region, which has emerged recently as the No.1 rising market in the metropolitan area. Most suburbs in this LGA have median house prices in the $300,000s and $400,000s – and affordability is a major driver here. </p>
<p class="Body">The generalised figure says house prices have risen 5% in 12 months, but many suburbs have done better, including Albany Creek, Banksia Beach, Bongaree, Burpengary East, Caboolture, Clontarf, Ferny Hills, Narangba, Toorbul, Warner and Woody Point - all of which recorded annual growth between 8 percent and 12 percent. Upmarket Newport on the Redcliffe Peninsula also grew 12 percent.</p>
<p class="Body">On the Gold Coast, house prices rose 5.8 percent on average, but there are 20 residential suburbs with growth between 10 percent and 20 percent.</p>
<p class="Body">By contrast, the apartment market is under-performing, with the median unit price in Surfers Paradise largely unchanged, while the medians for Broadbeach, Labrador and Mermaid Beach all dropped 5 percent in the past 12 months.</p>
<p class="Body">Surfers Paradise, Broadbeach and Mermaid Beach all have median unit prices considerably lower than five years ago, while Labrador and Southport are unchanged.</p>
<p class="Body"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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Three years of empty rhetoric about property prices “soaring": Terry Ryder

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<p>Generalised commentary masquerading as analysis is the curse of the real estate consumer.</p>
<p>Much of what appears in mainstream media about residential real estate discusses Australia as a single market. That’s an early clue for consumers that the commentator has shallow knowledge.</p>
<p>If you’re reading something from an alleged expert and they’re talking about what’s happening with “the Australian property market” or forecasting trends with “Australian housing prices”, turn the page because you’ve tuned into a charlatan.</p>
<p>Too much has been written about “the Australian property boom” and “the national affordability crisis”.</p>
<p>A core problem is that so much of the commentary comes out of the Sydney and the situation in our biggest city dominates the thinking and attitudes of commentators. We have outcry about a national problem that generally does not exist and “solutions” that will slug the whole nation to fix issues isolated to a small section of the national geography.</p>
<p>The 20 million Australians who don’t live in Sydney must wonder what the fuss is about. Any resident of Perth, Adelaide or Darwin would be bemused by the ongoing debate about soaring prices, affordability catastrophes and the need for major national action.</p>
<p>Many of the worst culprits for generalised and usually misinformed commentary are based overseas. Often they’re major international organisations or ratings agencies which seek to manufacture publicity by making dire warnings about Australian real estate based on generalised national statistics pumped up by the strength of the Sydney market.</p>
<p>There are plenty of local pontificators making the same mistake, most of them economists who should never be consulted for comment on residential real estate, a subject that’s not within their area of expertise, if indeed they have one.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Anyone who thinks Australian has had a national property boom recently should compare the price growth statistics for the capital cities in 2016 with the results in 2002 and 2003.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Back in 2002/2003, the last time we had a genuine nationwide boom, every capital city had sharply rising prices. In 2003, according to the ABS, house prices grew at least 13 percent in every one of the eight capital cities, including four where prices rose by more than 20 percent.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">The ABS figures for last year have a very different look about them.  Only Melbourne and Sydney managed double-digit growth and only just. Two cities, Perth and Darwin, recorded falling prices, while Brisbane, Canberra and Adelaide managed only moderate (4 or 5 percent) rises. Hobart rose 8 percent, according to these numbers.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">When you compare this with that genuine boom at the start of the century, it’s apparent that even Sydney’s growth was tame compared with back then. Melbourne, meanwhile, has mostly been below 10 percent with its annual house price growth in the past four years, only recently bursting out into double digits (and now leads the nation, according to most sources).</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Now the growing chorus among the generalised pontificators is that “the Australian property boom is over”.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">If they’re talking about Sydney, they’re probably right. But out there in the heartland beyond the biggest cities, different things are happening, including places where markets are rising, even as Sydney is subsiding.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">They include regional New South Wales, which now has far more rising markets than Sydney does.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">The same is true of regional Queensland, which has many ascendant markets (as well as a few that you might still want to avoid), much more so than Brisbane at the moment.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Melbourne is less advanced than Sydney in its growth cycle, so has more time to run with price growth than Sydney does.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Both Hobart and Canberra have sparked to life recently on the back of improving local economies and are likely to continue heading in the opposite direction to Sydney.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Adelaide’s market is quite busy but is unlikely to deliver strong price growth, other than in selected pockets, because it lacks the economic and population growth impetus of other major cities.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Perth has been going backwards throughout the four years that Sydney has been advancing – and now, as Sydney fades, Perth is showing the early signs of recovery.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/"><span class="s2">hotspotting.com.au</span></a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'"><span class="s2">email him</span></a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting"><span class="s2">Twitter.</span></a></span></p>
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As Sydney fades, Perth shows early signs of recovery: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<div>
<p><span>The significant depreciation of the Aussie dollar has encouraged a record 7.2 million short-term visitors to Australia over the past year.</span></p>
<p><span>But why are people coming?</span></p>
<p><span>The main reason is for holidays (3.24 million), and ever more so from China and its provinces.</span></p>
<p><span>Increasingly, though, folk are also coming to Australia to visit their friends, families and relatives, with more than 2 million people falling into this category.</span></p>
<p><span>The other huge growth area is for education, with a smashing 451,000 education arrivals in the past year, a massive annual increase of well over 17%.</span></p>
</div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/08/Arr.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/08/Arr.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>These figures suggest a boost for tourism economies such as the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Tasmania, for example.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest available government data shows that the boom in foreign students is overwhelmingly a capital city dynamic.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Why are people coming Down Under? Pete Wargent

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div id="post-body-2450267814035243586" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>There was a significant rebound in business confidence and conditions in May, albeit they still, of course, remain at historically weak levels:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Business confidence jumped 20 points higher, but is still in negative territory, while business conditions improved by 10 points over the month. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>Via the NAB Survey, <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-A8DtJIwNCOM/Xt8jOdG5hVI/AAAAAAAA2OM/Ho9bYL4tHukFvsEFIsFTPJZ-uwa0HChfgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Nab1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>:</em></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-A8DtJIwNCOM/Xt8jOdG5hVI/AAAAAAAA2OM/Ho9bYL4tHukFvsEFIsFTPJZ-uwa0HChfgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Nab1.jpg" width="640" height="216" data-original-height="543" data-original-width="1600"></div>
<br><div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: NAB Survey</em></span></div>
<br><div>Well, it's a decent start, as restrictions are eased.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There have been some spectacular results for Australia in respect of COVID-19 today, with only two new confirmed cases, with two cases remaining in ICU:</div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-e6ppm6ZYJwg/Xt8k9UNyS3I/AAAAAAAA2Oc/LoA_SuoFzrcH8CUFePxERXc0g-K9GuVBACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1426"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Both of the new confirmed cases were returned overseas travellers, held in New South Wales quarantine:</div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1CquvNlMRtE/Xt8lM9RQcpI/AAAAAAAA2Og/392PQbZziKAnh-d5STbyM0vBC3als33LgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/cv2.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1412"></div>
<br>New Zealand is also now officially COVID-19 free.</div>
<div>
<br><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
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Business conditions begin to claw back: Pete Wargent

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<div class="separator">
<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">I noted</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> recently that it pays to be wary when studies invariably reveal that the "strongest" property price growth over a carefully specified time period proves to be in a random suburb located somewhere to the west of White Cliffs which you've almost inevitably never heard of.</span>
</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Most likely the sample size for the data series is inappropriately miniscule, and the movements in median price are thus inclined to lurch around accordingly.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">There was recently some debate, for example, as to whether property prices have actually been soaring even in regional New South Wales towns where the population has been in decline.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Sure, low interest rates have sparked a boom in Sydney property prices...but out in the sticks and even where the population is declining? <span>I don't believe so - that wouldn't make any sense at all! </span>
</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Regional median prices</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Check out in the two charts below the median price data for Lightning Ridge and Walgett which were two of the quoted suburbs where the median prices have apparently boomed by more than +75 per cent over the past decade despite being home to reportedly declining populations.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As you can see there are so few sales in any given month - indeed, there are zero transactions in many instances - that even the smoothed 6mMA average median prices can comfortably more than double (or halve) in the matter of only a few months.<br><br>The median price data is to all intents and purposes meaningless.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/06/1%20-%20Lightning%20Ridge%20MEdian%20Prices.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/06/1%20-%20Lightning%20Ridge%20MEdian%20Prices.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/06/2%20-%20Walgett%20Median%20Price.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/06/2%20-%20Walgett%20Median%20Price.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Like-for-like sales</span></strong><br><br>If you want to work out what is really happening to house prices in a suburb, you ideally need to look at resales of the same properties.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And even then you need to find like-for-like sales or else improvements can skew the data viciously higher. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Take the below 1,000sqm block in Lightning Ridge which according to my sales history database appears at first blush to have increased in value to by an outlandish 1,400 per cent since 2003! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Until, that is, you realise that the owner has recently developed the block with two brand new homes - a 4 bedroom house and a 2 bedroom home - with a combined rental of $550/week.<br><br>This is fairly typical of price action which skews the median price data upwards, but it is clearly manufactured rather than endogenous growth.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.47.04%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><span>If you look at genuinely like-for-like sales in Lightning Ridge, however, such as the below recent sale on a 1,110sqm block, you'll find that capital growth over the past quarter of a century or so has been much closer to zero per cent. </span></div>
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<div><span>And it's a similar story in nearby Walgett, with the below house having achieved capital 'growth' over the past 25 years of negative $1,000.</span></div>
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<div>As for booming prices in Hay, which was another suburb quoted as having boomed by more than +70 per cent despite a declining population, there also appears to be very little exciting to see here when you look at like-for-like resales over time, with total capital growth since 2006 on this example property of only $1,000.</div>
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<div class="separator">Yet anothern NSW suburb which is quoted as having soared in value by more than +70 per cent despite its declining population was Brewarinna. </div>
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<div class="separator">Over the past year the suburb has recorded median price growth of precisely +25.00 per cent - with the median price having increased to exactly $100,000 - apparently impressive numbers, even if they do appear to be suspiciously round in nature.</div>
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<div class="separator">It's only when you realise that the entire data series is based on the grand total of eleven home sales that you realise how meaningless the median price data really can be.  </div>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
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<div class="separator">Now don't get me wrong, I am very much on board with the argument that easy credit flows can be and is one of the primary drivers of dwelling prices.</div>
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<div class="separator">Indeed, it is the very fact that today folk can borrow money at a 4 per cent cost of capital instead of double digit mortgage rates which is perhaps <em><strong>the</strong> </em>most significant factor in rising dwelling prices. </div>
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<div class="separator">What I am saying, however, is that median dwelling prices in regional towns should be treated with a great deal of caution, if not dispensed with altogether.</div>
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<div class="separator">As a penultimate point, I would also question whether a Sydney suburb where the population has ticked down by -0.2 per cent really has a "declining" population, when this is more likely to be simply a shift in the composition of households.</div>
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<div class="separator">Indeed, it is the very <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/population-growth-and-property-price" target="_blank">l</a>ack of population growth in some landlocked suburbs - reflective of the fact that they are fully built out - which makes them more appealing for investment purposes. </div>
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<div class="separator">On a related note, you'd have a tough time convincing the residents of, say, Orange, Dubbo, Lismore or Parkes of their supposedly declining populations, whatever the suburb level or LGA stats may say...but that's a debate for another day! </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Rubbery suburb median prices: Pete Wargent

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<p>Every time the Australian economy delivers a lacklustre growth data just like clockwork we start hearing that we can expect another correction in real estate prices as we are now fast tracking an inevitable recession – all a distinct possibility.</p>
<p>How quickly some forget that Australia has now successfully completed a record 24 years of consecutive economic growth. As is the case in Australia where real wages are down this is a global problem where I foresee that the household sector will struggle with the declining weak wage results. This is further evident with the data release this week identifying GDP growth for 2014/15 came in at 2.4% and nominal GDP growth at 1.8% for the 2014/15 financial year, which is the weakest growth in nominal GDP since 1961/62.</p>
<p>As a result of the wages decline what is even more alarming is when one examines stock levels we are witnessing the lowest ever levels despite a record low cash rate. For example, Mosman has 5,890 houses with just 63 on the market today which represents 1.069% of properties on the market and which is also quite common for the vast majority of Sydney suburbs.</p>
<p>Too many are sugar – coating the Sydney property market by focusing on the Sydney median house price, which keeps increasing, and not looking at the grass – roots property market by analysing individual niche market performances which paints an entirely different proposition. When you have individual property markets posting record low stock levels it’s hardly likely we will see significant price growth which is exactly what we are seeing today.</p>
<p>The reality being in Mosman is that presently we have 1.069% of vendors on the market with the remaining 98.931% of property owners not wanting to sell despite a record low cash rate that will almost certainly go lower in 2016. Much of the problem relates solely to job security where individual households are refusing to take on more debt which then has the markets flatlining.</p>
<p>Going on past market corrections which were brought about by unprecedented high turnover of properties by households which has not been the case in the majority of instances. We have seen unusual high turnover of properties by investors to the extent that we are now seeing parity being reached between tenants and investors in terms of rent. That’s good news for those renting given it appears that rental growth has peaked in Sydney where in some cases we are now seeing an oversupply of properties for rent.</p>
<p>This is a positive for the economy given the general rule of thumb is one – third rent, the next third own with a mortgage and the final third own with no mortgage. So it appears now that the Sydney investor market has peaked and we can now expect to see some tapering of prices as investors chase new market opportunities. Brisbane is the stand – out so we expect to see investors jumping all over that market from here on. In the perfect property world this is exactly how investor machinations should operate with Sydney and Melbourne peaking and entering re – calibration mode.</p>
<p>Another interesting thing to look out for is the Sydney vacancy rate which we expect to see grow significantly given the enormous investor movements across Sydney. We can also expect to see some investors flipping investment properties by taking their profits and then re – investing in the new growth markets where depending on when they bought into the market there have been very strong capital appreciation generated.</p>
<p>When the Australian economy produces a poor report card this then forces our elected politicians to concentrate on the much needed reforms that must be implemented as we are now twelve months out from the next Federal Election.</p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 80</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 65</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 66</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 61</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 42</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 49</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 5</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 4</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 4</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 15</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 18</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 19</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 10</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 2</p>
<p>•Number of houses on the market this week – 5</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 29</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 30</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 35</p>
<p>For this week’s sales in Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate.</p>
<p><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000. </em></p>
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Why property markets just got a lot more interesting: Robert Simeon

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<p>In the month of November, Australian dwelling values (ie, houses and apartments) climbed a solid 0.8% across all metro and non-metro markets according to CoreLogic's hedonic index (specifically, 0.7% in the capital cities and 1.4% across the non-metro regional areas), which we had foreshadowed. If you cannot see the charts below, you can read this note via Livewire here.</p>
<p>With the COVID-19 induced peak-to-trough fall across the nation now officially recorded at 2.1% (revised up from a previously estimated 1.7%), Aussie home values are still 0.9% below the high watermark set at the end of April (on a monthly basis) notwithstanding increases recorded in October (0.4%) and November (0.8%).</p>
<p>Somewhat more remarkably, Australian dwelling values are still 0.5% lower than they were almost 4 years ago. That is to say, there has been no net increase in national house prices since May 2017.</p>
<p>In November, the Melbourne market registered its first full month of capital gains with dwelling values rising by 0.7%, notably outpacing Sydney (0.4%) and Brisbane (0.6%). Healthier house price increases were registered in Perth (1.1%), Adelaide (1.3%), Hobart (1.4%), and Darwin (1.9%) and Canberra (1.9%).</p>
<p>Over the three months to November 2020, capital city dwelling values have increased 0.7%, underperforming regional areas (2.8%) and the combined national market (1.1%).</p>
<p>In all cities, gross rental yields remain above the cost of servicing mortgage debt, which has opened the door to positive (as opposed to negative) gearing. The best rental yields are in Darwin (7.0%), Canberra (5.5%), Adelaide (5.3%), Perth (5.3%), and Brisbane (5.1%). Yields are comparatively low in Sydney (3.3%) and Melbourne (3.7%).</p>
<p>The recovery in the housing market is a crucial plank in the broader national rebound from the 1-in-100 year global pandemic, and a key demonstration of the fact that the RBA's monetary policy transmission mechanism is working. This is especially important with second and third COVID-19 waves cresting around the world, and at a time when Australia faces downside risks from China's assault on our economy.</p>
<p>With housing credit growth running at just 3.3% on an annual basis according to the latest RBA data, and lending standards the toughest they have been in modern banking history, there are scant financial stability risks for regulators to worry about at this juncture.</p>
<p>Clients will recall that Coolabah forecast a tiny 0% to 5% correction in national house prices in March, predicting they would start rising again in September and October (as they did) with total capital gains over the next few years expected to be at least 10% to 20%.</p>
<p>Coolabah has also been consistently very bearish on relations between China and the West.</p>
<p><strong>Christopher Joye </strong><em>is the portfolio manager at <a href="https://coolabahcapital.com" target="_blank">Coolabah Capital Investments</a></em></p>
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