<p>The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.</p>

<p>Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.</p>

<p>The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.</p>

<p>The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.</p>

<p>Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.</p>

<p>Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.</p>

<p>Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.</p>

<p data-end="345" data-start="110">The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.</p>

<p data-end="689" data-start="347">Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.</p>

<p data-end="689" data-start="347">Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.</p>


Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

<p>Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.</p>

<p>The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.</p>

<p>The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" /></p>

<p>SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.</p>

<p>“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.</p>

<p>“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" /></p>

<p>The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.</p>

<p>Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.</p>

<p>COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" /></p>

<p>“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.</p>

<p>The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.</p>

<p>The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.</p>

<p>Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a></em></p>


First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.</p>

<p>The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.</p>

<p>SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”</p>

<p>The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" /></p>

<p>The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.</p>

<p>A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.</p>

<p>Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" /></p>

<p>The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.</p>

<p>Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.</p>

<p>The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.</p>


First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

<p>Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."</p>

<p>Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;</p>


Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-6" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-2" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-2" dir="auto">
<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-2" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:5a5ab36c-8dd3-454c-b456-c501f22f0eb4-0" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:5a5ab36c-8dd3-454c-b456-c501f22f0eb4-0" dir="auto">
<p data-end="157" data-start="0">The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.</p>

<p data-end="459" data-start="159"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.</p>

<p data-end="459" data-start="159">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]</p>

<p data-end="651" data-start="461"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.</p>

<p data-end="950" data-start="653">Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.</p>

<p data-end="1081" data-start="952">“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.</p>

<p data-end="1081" data-start="952">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]</p>

<p data-end="1307" data-start="1083">Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.</p>

<p data-end="1522" data-start="1309">The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.</p>

<p data-end="1522" data-start="1309">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]</p>

<p data-end="1714" data-start="1524">Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.</p>

<p data-end="1945" data-start="1716">The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.</p>

<p data-end="1945" data-start="1716">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]</p>

<p data-end="2220" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="1947">More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.</p>
</section>
</section>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]</p>


SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Property Prices

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<p>Australia is a nation full of highly confused real estate consumers. They’re befuddled because there is so much conflicting data on matters relating to residential property, especially on prices.</p>
<p>The confusion arises because of the widespread acceptance of anything labeled “research” as fact. Media these days is driven by under-resourced journalists and there’s a growing tendency to recycle press releases as articles, without the scrutiny that once was common in the industry.</p>
<p>Back in the day, publishing a press release (which, by definition, is someone’s propaganda) verbatim was a sacking offence. These days it’s mainstream journalism, especially in real estate. Most of the online “news” services that send out daily bulletins consist almost entirely of contributed material. The journalistic content is close to zero. </p>
<p>Any press release from a name research company featuring price data will be published without question. If the press release says Sydney prices are still soaring, that will be the headline in multiple media outlets, including some of our biggest newspapers.</p>
<p>The problem is that price statistics are often very rubbery figures. One of the ways we know this is by comparing price data from multiple sources. The differences and contradictions are quite stark. </p>
<p>Recently I wrote a report which focused on the latest price data for the eight capital cities from four different research sources. The areas where they disagreed were far more numerous than the ones where they were broadly in concert.</p>
<p>Two sources claimed Sydney prices were still growing at an annual rate around 11 percent, while the other two said the annual growth rate was down to 1.2 percent and 2.6 percent.</p>
<p>One source said Darwin house prices were unchanged while another recorded an 8 percent decline. Two sources said Canberra apartment prices were rising and the other two reported they were falling. All four agreed that Darwin apartment prices were falling but the rate of decline ranged from 0.2 percent to almost 10 percent.</p>
<p>Annual price growth for Melbourne houses ranged from 7 percent to 15 percent. One said the capital city average was 2.7 percent annual growth in house prices while another claimed it was 8.2 percent.</p>
<p>There are myriad other examples.</p>
<p>We know that different research companies have different methodologies and parameters, but consumers are entitled to think that the movement of prices in a particular location is a mater of fact: when media reports one week that they’re rising and the next that they’re falling, confusion is understandable.</p>
<p>It seems no one in media has noticed the discrepancies.</p>
<p>And now we have the Reserve Bank revealing that it disregarded price data from one of its regular sources. Apparently a change in methodology resulted in the research entity overstating price growth in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p>At the time those figures were published, I challenged them because I thought they were clearly wrong. They contradicted known trends in the market and also conflicted with data from other more credible sources. </p>
<p>But media outlets across the nation published those erroneous figures as fact. There were numerous headlines declaring the fading Sydney boom had been reactivated somehow, miraculously, in contradiction of all previous data.</p>
<p>Inevitably this was accompanied by observers shouting about bubbles, affordability crises and young Australians priced out of the market, doomed to a lifetime of renting.</p>
<p>Worse, one of the big-name global ratings agencies rushed out a warning about the re-inflation of the Australian house price bubble, based purely on a single month’s price figures from one research source. It says something about the credibility of the ratings organisation that the basis for them issuing international press statements was so flimsy.</p>
<p>The message for real estate consumers is to take real estate statistics with several grains of salt. It’s alarming how many people base investment decisions on published data from a single source, reported verbatim by an unquestioning media.</p>
<p>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></p>
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Property price statistics are often rubbery figures: Terry Ryder

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">There are 3 key drivers of property prices.</p>
<div>
<strong>(i) Supply</strong> - the rate of construction and the properties listed for sale on the market;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong>(ii) Interest rates</strong> - the cost of borrowing; and</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong>(iii) Population growth</strong> - immigration, natural population growth (births minus deaths), and interstate migration.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Or, as depicted in his infographic:</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JfAMyhsEwDU/XsC1SuAaGqI/AAAAAAAA1xE/oWHfOVu6Wt4Dg29nArHLDV26HjXIy8SaACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/FIN.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="445" data-original-width="791"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div><em>Source: Tim Boyle, Finalytics</em></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div>People often state that the unemployment rate is critical, but this argument isn't backed up by any hard statistics.<br><br>In fact the last couple of times the unemployment rate spiked housing prices soared the following year, as pointed out by Stuart Wemyss of ProSolution, <em>Game of Mates</em> author Dr. Cameron Murray, and others:</div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mGeIhomU-Rw/XsDARe3SG3I/AAAAAAAA1xg/AF7pCtVj6yImNusAc2_soCsN-9f2dwlHQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="423" data-original-width="738"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div>There's also an enormous fiscal stimulus washing through, comfortably dwarfing anything we've seen in recent decades. </div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SwOd64SloIQ/XsDAdNa9cVI/AAAAAAAA1xk/IA2iutyq4sE-ulOJVokqdP6KWZMNVqNCwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Stim.jpg" width="640" height="638" data-original-height="738" data-original-width="739"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><br><strong>Boyle's 3 drivers today</strong><br><br>In that context, here's what's happening with Boyle's 3 key drivers today.<br><br>Supply is extremely tight at the moment.<br><br>Dwelling construction is plunging towards 70-year lows and vendors aren't listing either.<br><br><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ituPSwbTdvU/XrNkMZcBltI/AAAAAAAA1lM/lSj4XGqL1Gcc-lP5wKWKzjVlXG5YWXJ-gCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CL2.jpg" width="640" height="386"><br><br></p>
<div><em>Source: CoreLogic</em></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><br>Lending rates, meanwhile, are at the lowest level in modern history.<br><br><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HHbGid402-g/XrNlXdwQxnI/AAAAAAAA1lc/Fd54mmUYX1kJWedMT-5JdHyEbCZFOZD3ACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CL3.jpg" width="640" height="398"><br><br></p>
<div>This effectively allows borrowers to take on bigger mortgages, as I showed in my recent post on lending trends.<br><br>ANZ have just noted the same thing:<br><br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bGysfQwD18o/XsDAo9GSxRI/AAAAAAAA1xs/Vx2-pm8vZHE32TUM-20dz-8UmDRRD4DyQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/ANZ1.jpg" width="640" height="448" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1143"></div>
<br>The big unknown factor at this stage is <strong>population growth.</strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>My base case expectation or scenario is that within the next few months the powerful interests such as the Property Council, Australia's universities, the airlines, Tourism Australia, and big business at the top end of town will have forced the government's hand to reopen the borders, albeit with a period of enforced quarantine.</div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div>As for the thesis that things will be totally different after COVID-19...well as a gallant but struggling home-schooler I reckon that's total garbage!<br><br>People can't wait to get back and out to spend, socialise, travel, go to work, and holiday again.</div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><br>It's just the way we're designed, we're pack animals.<br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-r9TZrsC6zMw/XsC1SYxsobI/AAAAAAAA1xA/_k9XLZBNywgB_0ApBK_96zfH9-jzlSPNACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/JT.jpg" width="640" height="308" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="747"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>And moreover, Australia will likely be seen as one of the safest and most desirable countries on earth in which to live.</div>
<div>
<br><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
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The three drivers of property prices: Pete Wargent

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<p>With another federal election now passed all the political rhetoric about infrastructure will be buried until the next election in three years’ time. Sadly, in Australia our elected governments are only interested in the one thing – taxes.</p>
<p>Since the early 1980’s politicians have conveniently discussed the construction of a high – speed rail link along the east coast where typically nothing has happened, although you can be guaranteed that it will be mentioned again prior to the next federal election. In 2013 the High Speed Rail Study Phase 2 Report estimated that a conventional High Speed Rail Express trip from Sydney to Melbourne would take 2 hours and 44 minutes (about the same time it takes to check into an airport). Sydney to Brisbane would take 2 hours and 37 minutes. Again these reports end up in the too hard basket.</p>
<p>Sydney is now recording the highest prices ever recorded with no signs of easing as the official cash rate keeps going down and this will be the case for easily the next decade. What is urgently required is a high – speed rail link from Sydney to Newcastle and Sydney to the Southern Highlands then to Wollongong. This is the only feasible way that property prices will ease given it’s now urgently required that these three cities are inter – connected.</p>
<p>In 2013 CoreLogic reported that the number of Australian suburbs with a median home value in excess of one million dollars was 264. Their latest data now indicates that this has now jumped to 570.</p>
<p>To provide a frightening case study in June 1992 I sold a home in Ourimbah Road Mosman for $320,000. Every two years I provide the owners with an updated weekly rental and value as the subject property is in a Superannuation Fund. In 2002, our estimated value was $775,000 to $800,00 with a rental of $600.00 to $700.00 per week. In 2006, our estimated value was $1,150,000 to $1,250,000 and the rental $900.00 to $925.00 per week. In 2014, our estimated value was $1,550,000 to $1,600,000 and the rental $1,500.00 to $1,600.00 per week. This week I assessed the property for 2016, our estimated value was $2,300,000 to $2,500,000 and the weekly rental was now $1,800.00 to $2,000.00 per week.</p>
<p>Little wonder the retiring Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens had plenty to say this week on the Australian economy in his farewell speech. Ultimately, low interest rates could only do their job when “someone somewhere has both the balance sheet capacity and the willingness to take on more debt and spend.” Obviously aimed at the federal government to start building better infrastructure in Australia. Private sector debt in Australia for companies equates to 125 per cent of GDP where the government’s debt sits at 40 per cent of GDP.</p>
<p>It’s quite simple that the Sydney property market needs to expand to Newcastle, Hunter Valley, Southern Highlands and Wollongong. Our federal government is spending money on public servants and social services with very little going into new infrastructure which would then drive development, employment and ease the ever growing property prices. Sydney in this instance would be the perfect test case to identify that if you get all the market machinations right you can ease property prices.</p>
<p>The only problem with this is that nobody wants to push and prod the elected governments of the day into direct action. It’s high time politicians became accountable instead of prime ministers claiming the mantle as being the infrastructure prime minister. In a report on High Speed Rail I read: “fast trains to connect the eastern seaboard cities of Melbourne, Canberra, Sydney and Brisbane are feasible, practical and profitable today. The project can be done for about $30 billion, about a quarter of the cost estimated on old paradigms in 2013. And it can be done in less than seven years, not the 30 to 35 years previously suggested.”</p>
<p>“The trains could be the 21st century equivalent of the Snowy Mountains Scheme, and would need little or no direct government funding.”</p>
<p>So one needs to ask the question – why then is nothing happening? Unfortunately, the answer may well be that Australian politicians have no train of thought.</p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 47</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 42</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 51</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 41</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 41</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 44</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 2</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 7</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 10</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 18</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 17</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 16</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 2</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 7</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 8</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 25</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 20</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 20</p>
<p><em>ROBERT SIMEON is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. </em></p>
<p><em>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000.</em></p>
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Blame our governments for high property prices: Robert Simeon

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<p class="Body">Generalisations about property markets are a major source of misleading information for investors.</p>
<p class="Body">The worst examples usually emanate from economists who speak about “the Australian property market” as a single homogenous entity. </p>
<p class="Body">A statement such as “Australian house prices rose 7 percent last year” implies there was 7 percent growth across the nation, when it reality there were a few locations with double-digit growth, some with minor movement, many where prices hardly moved at all and others where prices went backwards, in some cases a lot.</p>
<p class="Body">We’ve had three years of empty rhetoric about property prices “soaring” and bubbles emerging, all based on a long-overdue revival of the Sydney market and action in some parts of Melbourne.</p>
<p class="Body">Even speaking about what happened or will happen to prices in a single major city is too much generalization to be of any use to buyers and sellers.</p>
<p class="Body">The entity described as “the Sydney property market” is a place with over 700 suburbs, with markets ranging from $370,000 units in Liverpool to $900,000 houses in Rouse Hill to top-end locations like Mosman where the median house price is $3 million.</p>
<p class="Body">Distilling all of that and more into a statement such as “Sydney property prices rose 3.6 percent in May” is the hallmark of lazy, incompetent analysts whose primary interest is publicity rather than being useful to consumers.</p>
<p class="Body">A study of the latest Market Monitor from the Real Estate Institute of Queensland provides plenty of evidence that generalised single-figure numbers to describe a large city are both pointless and misleading.</p>
<p class="Body">The report finds that the median house price in the Brisbane City LGA rose 6.1 percent in the past year. That’s the figure that 99% of media would report, indicating that Brisbane has a solid market but one that isn’t booming the way Sydney did until recently.</p>
<p class="Body">But Market Monitor delves deeper and provides figures for individual suburbs, revealing there are plenty of places which did a lot better than the generalised figure and a few where median prices were in reverse.</p>
<p class="Body">Middle ring areas in the Brisbane Southside precinct did well in the past year, including Coorparoo (up 11 percent), Holland Park West (up 12 percent), Macgregor (up 17 percent), Sunnybank Hills (up 12 percent), Eight Mile Plains (up 10 percent), Mansfield (up 11 percent), Wishart (up 15 percent) and Robertson (up almost 20 percent).</p>
<p class="Body">Similar areas on Brisbane City’s Northside have also out-performed, including Banyo (up 17 percent), Grange (up 16 percent), Hendra (up 13 percent), Wooloowin (up 16 percent), Sandgate (up 17%) and Mitchelton (up 11 percent).</p>
<p class="Body">In contrast, there is evidence of falling values in upmarket areas like Hamilton, Ascot, St Lucia, Teneriffe and Hawthorne, all suburbs with median house prices above $1 million. But the median price for New Farm (median house price $1.5 million) is up 15 percent.</p>
<p class="Body">The report also shows the impact of over-building of inner-city apartments, with the median unit price down 1.4 percent in the CBD, down 4.5 percent in Fortitude Valley and down 1.7 percent in West End. Median weekly rents have fallen in the past year in several of the inner-city unit markets, according to the REIQ data.</p>
<p class="Body">Heading south to the Logan City part of Greater Brisbane, the generalised figure indicates the median house price has risen only 4 percent in 12 months. But suburbs with annual growth above 8 percent include Browns Plains, Heritage Park, Loganlea, Waterford and Waterford West. Logan Central, Forestdale and Woodridge all had annual growth in the 13-15% range.</p>
<p class="Body">Logan City’s opposite number in Brisbane’s far north is the Moreton Bay Region, which has emerged recently as the No.1 rising market in the metropolitan area. Most suburbs in this LGA have median house prices in the $300,000s and $400,000s – and affordability is a major driver here. </p>
<p class="Body">The generalised figure says house prices have risen 5% in 12 months, but many suburbs have done better, including Albany Creek, Banksia Beach, Bongaree, Burpengary East, Caboolture, Clontarf, Ferny Hills, Narangba, Toorbul, Warner and Woody Point - all of which recorded annual growth between 8 percent and 12 percent. Upmarket Newport on the Redcliffe Peninsula also grew 12 percent.</p>
<p class="Body">On the Gold Coast, house prices rose 5.8 percent on average, but there are 20 residential suburbs with growth between 10 percent and 20 percent.</p>
<p class="Body">By contrast, the apartment market is under-performing, with the median unit price in Surfers Paradise largely unchanged, while the medians for Broadbeach, Labrador and Mermaid Beach all dropped 5 percent in the past 12 months.</p>
<p class="Body">Surfers Paradise, Broadbeach and Mermaid Beach all have median unit prices considerably lower than five years ago, while Labrador and Southport are unchanged.</p>
<p class="Body"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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Three years of empty rhetoric about property prices “soaring": Terry Ryder

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<p>Generalised commentary masquerading as analysis is the curse of the real estate consumer.</p>
<p>Much of what appears in mainstream media about residential real estate discusses Australia as a single market. That’s an early clue for consumers that the commentator has shallow knowledge.</p>
<p>If you’re reading something from an alleged expert and they’re talking about what’s happening with “the Australian property market” or forecasting trends with “Australian housing prices”, turn the page because you’ve tuned into a charlatan.</p>
<p>Too much has been written about “the Australian property boom” and “the national affordability crisis”.</p>
<p>A core problem is that so much of the commentary comes out of the Sydney and the situation in our biggest city dominates the thinking and attitudes of commentators. We have outcry about a national problem that generally does not exist and “solutions” that will slug the whole nation to fix issues isolated to a small section of the national geography.</p>
<p>The 20 million Australians who don’t live in Sydney must wonder what the fuss is about. Any resident of Perth, Adelaide or Darwin would be bemused by the ongoing debate about soaring prices, affordability catastrophes and the need for major national action.</p>
<p>Many of the worst culprits for generalised and usually misinformed commentary are based overseas. Often they’re major international organisations or ratings agencies which seek to manufacture publicity by making dire warnings about Australian real estate based on generalised national statistics pumped up by the strength of the Sydney market.</p>
<p>There are plenty of local pontificators making the same mistake, most of them economists who should never be consulted for comment on residential real estate, a subject that’s not within their area of expertise, if indeed they have one.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Anyone who thinks Australian has had a national property boom recently should compare the price growth statistics for the capital cities in 2016 with the results in 2002 and 2003.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Back in 2002/2003, the last time we had a genuine nationwide boom, every capital city had sharply rising prices. In 2003, according to the ABS, house prices grew at least 13 percent in every one of the eight capital cities, including four where prices rose by more than 20 percent.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">The ABS figures for last year have a very different look about them.  Only Melbourne and Sydney managed double-digit growth and only just. Two cities, Perth and Darwin, recorded falling prices, while Brisbane, Canberra and Adelaide managed only moderate (4 or 5 percent) rises. Hobart rose 8 percent, according to these numbers.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">When you compare this with that genuine boom at the start of the century, it’s apparent that even Sydney’s growth was tame compared with back then. Melbourne, meanwhile, has mostly been below 10 percent with its annual house price growth in the past four years, only recently bursting out into double digits (and now leads the nation, according to most sources).</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Now the growing chorus among the generalised pontificators is that “the Australian property boom is over”.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">If they’re talking about Sydney, they’re probably right. But out there in the heartland beyond the biggest cities, different things are happening, including places where markets are rising, even as Sydney is subsiding.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">They include regional New South Wales, which now has far more rising markets than Sydney does.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">The same is true of regional Queensland, which has many ascendant markets (as well as a few that you might still want to avoid), much more so than Brisbane at the moment.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Melbourne is less advanced than Sydney in its growth cycle, so has more time to run with price growth than Sydney does.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Both Hobart and Canberra have sparked to life recently on the back of improving local economies and are likely to continue heading in the opposite direction to Sydney.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Adelaide’s market is quite busy but is unlikely to deliver strong price growth, other than in selected pockets, because it lacks the economic and population growth impetus of other major cities.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Perth has been going backwards throughout the four years that Sydney has been advancing – and now, as Sydney fades, Perth is showing the early signs of recovery.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/"><span class="s2">hotspotting.com.au</span></a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'"><span class="s2">email him</span></a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting"><span class="s2">Twitter.</span></a></span></p>
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As Sydney fades, Perth shows early signs of recovery: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p><span>The significant depreciation of the Aussie dollar has encouraged a record 7.2 million short-term visitors to Australia over the past year.</span></p>
<p><span>But why are people coming?</span></p>
<p><span>The main reason is for holidays (3.24 million), and ever more so from China and its provinces.</span></p>
<p><span>Increasingly, though, folk are also coming to Australia to visit their friends, families and relatives, with more than 2 million people falling into this category.</span></p>
<p><span>The other huge growth area is for education, with a smashing 451,000 education arrivals in the past year, a massive annual increase of well over 17%.</span></p>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/10/08/Arr.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/10/08/Arr.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>These figures suggest a boost for tourism economies such as the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Tasmania, for example.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest available government data shows that the boom in foreign students is overwhelmingly a capital city dynamic.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Why are people coming Down Under? Pete Wargent

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div id="post-body-2450267814035243586" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>There was a significant rebound in business confidence and conditions in May, albeit they still, of course, remain at historically weak levels:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Business confidence jumped 20 points higher, but is still in negative territory, while business conditions improved by 10 points over the month. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>Via the NAB Survey, <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-A8DtJIwNCOM/Xt8jOdG5hVI/AAAAAAAA2OM/Ho9bYL4tHukFvsEFIsFTPJZ-uwa0HChfgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Nab1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>:</em></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-A8DtJIwNCOM/Xt8jOdG5hVI/AAAAAAAA2OM/Ho9bYL4tHukFvsEFIsFTPJZ-uwa0HChfgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Nab1.jpg" width="640" height="216" data-original-height="543" data-original-width="1600"></div>
<br><div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: NAB Survey</em></span></div>
<br><div>Well, it's a decent start, as restrictions are eased.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There have been some spectacular results for Australia in respect of COVID-19 today, with only two new confirmed cases, with two cases remaining in ICU:</div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-e6ppm6ZYJwg/Xt8k9UNyS3I/AAAAAAAA2Oc/LoA_SuoFzrcH8CUFePxERXc0g-K9GuVBACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1426"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Both of the new confirmed cases were returned overseas travellers, held in New South Wales quarantine:</div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1CquvNlMRtE/Xt8lM9RQcpI/AAAAAAAA2Og/392PQbZziKAnh-d5STbyM0vBC3als33LgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/cv2.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1412"></div>
<br>New Zealand is also now officially COVID-19 free.</div>
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<br><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
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Business conditions begin to claw back: Pete Wargent

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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">I noted</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> recently that it pays to be wary when studies invariably reveal that the "strongest" property price growth over a carefully specified time period proves to be in a random suburb located somewhere to the west of White Cliffs which you've almost inevitably never heard of.</span>
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<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Most likely the sample size for the data series is inappropriately miniscule, and the movements in median price are thus inclined to lurch around accordingly.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">There was recently some debate, for example, as to whether property prices have actually been soaring even in regional New South Wales towns where the population has been in decline.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Sure, low interest rates have sparked a boom in Sydney property prices...but out in the sticks and even where the population is declining? <span>I don't believe so - that wouldn't make any sense at all! </span>
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<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Regional median prices</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Check out in the two charts below the median price data for Lightning Ridge and Walgett which were two of the quoted suburbs where the median prices have apparently boomed by more than +75 per cent over the past decade despite being home to reportedly declining populations.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As you can see there are so few sales in any given month - indeed, there are zero transactions in many instances - that even the smoothed 6mMA average median prices can comfortably more than double (or halve) in the matter of only a few months.<br><br>The median price data is to all intents and purposes meaningless.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/06/1%20-%20Lightning%20Ridge%20MEdian%20Prices.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/06/1%20-%20Lightning%20Ridge%20MEdian%20Prices.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/10/06/2%20-%20Walgett%20Median%20Price.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/06/2%20-%20Walgett%20Median%20Price.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Like-for-like sales</span></strong><br><br>If you want to work out what is really happening to house prices in a suburb, you ideally need to look at resales of the same properties.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And even then you need to find like-for-like sales or else improvements can skew the data viciously higher. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Take the below 1,000sqm block in Lightning Ridge which according to my sales history database appears at first blush to have increased in value to by an outlandish 1,400 per cent since 2003! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Until, that is, you realise that the owner has recently developed the block with two brand new homes - a 4 bedroom house and a 2 bedroom home - with a combined rental of $550/week.<br><br>This is fairly typical of price action which skews the median price data upwards, but it is clearly manufactured rather than endogenous growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.47.04%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.47.04%20AM.png" alt="" width="861" height="655"></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>If you look at genuinely like-for-like sales in Lightning Ridge, however, such as the below recent sale on a 1,110sqm block, you'll find that capital growth over the past quarter of a century or so has been much closer to zero per cent. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.48.32%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.48.32%20AM.png" alt="" width="786" height="571"></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>And it's a similar story in nearby Walgett, with the below house having achieved capital 'growth' over the past 25 years of negative $1,000.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.50.55%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.50.55%20AM.png" alt="" width="771" height="554"></span></div>
<div>
<div>As for booming prices in Hay, which was another suburb quoted as having boomed by more than +70 per cent despite a declining population, there also appears to be very little exciting to see here when you look at like-for-like resales over time, with total capital growth since 2006 on this example property of only $1,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click to enlarge</div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.52.21%20AM.png" alt="" width="773" height="516"></div>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<div class="separator">Yet anothern NSW suburb which is quoted as having soared in value by more than +70 per cent despite its declining population was Brewarinna. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Over the past year the suburb has recorded median price growth of precisely +25.00 per cent - with the median price having increased to exactly $100,000 - apparently impressive numbers, even if they do appear to be suspiciously round in nature.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">It's only when you realise that the entire data series is based on the grand total of eleven home sales that you realise how meaningless the median price data really can be.  </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Now don't get me wrong, I am very much on board with the argument that easy credit flows can be and is one of the primary drivers of dwelling prices.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Indeed, it is the very fact that today folk can borrow money at a 4 per cent cost of capital instead of double digit mortgage rates which is perhaps <em><strong>the</strong> </em>most significant factor in rising dwelling prices. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">What I am saying, however, is that median dwelling prices in regional towns should be treated with a great deal of caution, if not dispensed with altogether.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">As a penultimate point, I would also question whether a Sydney suburb where the population has ticked down by -0.2 per cent really has a "declining" population, when this is more likely to be simply a shift in the composition of households.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.53.53%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.53.53%20AM.png" alt="" width="773" height="339"></div>
<div class="separator">
<div class="separator">Indeed, it is the very <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/population-growth-and-property-price" target="_blank">l</a>ack of population growth in some landlocked suburbs - reflective of the fact that they are fully built out - which makes them more appealing for investment purposes. </div>
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<div class="separator">On a related note, you'd have a tough time convincing the residents of, say, Orange, Dubbo, Lismore or Parkes of their supposedly declining populations, whatever the suburb level or LGA stats may say...but that's a debate for another day! </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Rubbery suburb median prices: Pete Wargent

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<p>Every time the Australian economy delivers a lacklustre growth data just like clockwork we start hearing that we can expect another correction in real estate prices as we are now fast tracking an inevitable recession – all a distinct possibility.</p>
<p>How quickly some forget that Australia has now successfully completed a record 24 years of consecutive economic growth. As is the case in Australia where real wages are down this is a global problem where I foresee that the household sector will struggle with the declining weak wage results. This is further evident with the data release this week identifying GDP growth for 2014/15 came in at 2.4% and nominal GDP growth at 1.8% for the 2014/15 financial year, which is the weakest growth in nominal GDP since 1961/62.</p>
<p>As a result of the wages decline what is even more alarming is when one examines stock levels we are witnessing the lowest ever levels despite a record low cash rate. For example, Mosman has 5,890 houses with just 63 on the market today which represents 1.069% of properties on the market and which is also quite common for the vast majority of Sydney suburbs.</p>
<p>Too many are sugar – coating the Sydney property market by focusing on the Sydney median house price, which keeps increasing, and not looking at the grass – roots property market by analysing individual niche market performances which paints an entirely different proposition. When you have individual property markets posting record low stock levels it’s hardly likely we will see significant price growth which is exactly what we are seeing today.</p>
<p>The reality being in Mosman is that presently we have 1.069% of vendors on the market with the remaining 98.931% of property owners not wanting to sell despite a record low cash rate that will almost certainly go lower in 2016. Much of the problem relates solely to job security where individual households are refusing to take on more debt which then has the markets flatlining.</p>
<p>Going on past market corrections which were brought about by unprecedented high turnover of properties by households which has not been the case in the majority of instances. We have seen unusual high turnover of properties by investors to the extent that we are now seeing parity being reached between tenants and investors in terms of rent. That’s good news for those renting given it appears that rental growth has peaked in Sydney where in some cases we are now seeing an oversupply of properties for rent.</p>
<p>This is a positive for the economy given the general rule of thumb is one – third rent, the next third own with a mortgage and the final third own with no mortgage. So it appears now that the Sydney investor market has peaked and we can now expect to see some tapering of prices as investors chase new market opportunities. Brisbane is the stand – out so we expect to see investors jumping all over that market from here on. In the perfect property world this is exactly how investor machinations should operate with Sydney and Melbourne peaking and entering re – calibration mode.</p>
<p>Another interesting thing to look out for is the Sydney vacancy rate which we expect to see grow significantly given the enormous investor movements across Sydney. We can also expect to see some investors flipping investment properties by taking their profits and then re – investing in the new growth markets where depending on when they bought into the market there have been very strong capital appreciation generated.</p>
<p>When the Australian economy produces a poor report card this then forces our elected politicians to concentrate on the much needed reforms that must be implemented as we are now twelve months out from the next Federal Election.</p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 80</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 65</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 66</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 61</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 42</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 49</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 5</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 4</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 4</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 15</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 18</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 19</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 10</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 2</p>
<p>•Number of houses on the market this week – 5</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 29</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 30</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 35</p>
<p>For this week’s sales in Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate.</p>
<p><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000. </em></p>
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Why property markets just got a lot more interesting: Robert Simeon

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<p>In the month of November, Australian dwelling values (ie, houses and apartments) climbed a solid 0.8% across all metro and non-metro markets according to CoreLogic's hedonic index (specifically, 0.7% in the capital cities and 1.4% across the non-metro regional areas), which we had foreshadowed. If you cannot see the charts below, you can read this note via Livewire here.</p>
<p>With the COVID-19 induced peak-to-trough fall across the nation now officially recorded at 2.1% (revised up from a previously estimated 1.7%), Aussie home values are still 0.9% below the high watermark set at the end of April (on a monthly basis) notwithstanding increases recorded in October (0.4%) and November (0.8%).</p>
<p>Somewhat more remarkably, Australian dwelling values are still 0.5% lower than they were almost 4 years ago. That is to say, there has been no net increase in national house prices since May 2017.</p>
<p>In November, the Melbourne market registered its first full month of capital gains with dwelling values rising by 0.7%, notably outpacing Sydney (0.4%) and Brisbane (0.6%). Healthier house price increases were registered in Perth (1.1%), Adelaide (1.3%), Hobart (1.4%), and Darwin (1.9%) and Canberra (1.9%).</p>
<p>Over the three months to November 2020, capital city dwelling values have increased 0.7%, underperforming regional areas (2.8%) and the combined national market (1.1%).</p>
<p>In all cities, gross rental yields remain above the cost of servicing mortgage debt, which has opened the door to positive (as opposed to negative) gearing. The best rental yields are in Darwin (7.0%), Canberra (5.5%), Adelaide (5.3%), Perth (5.3%), and Brisbane (5.1%). Yields are comparatively low in Sydney (3.3%) and Melbourne (3.7%).</p>
<p>The recovery in the housing market is a crucial plank in the broader national rebound from the 1-in-100 year global pandemic, and a key demonstration of the fact that the RBA's monetary policy transmission mechanism is working. This is especially important with second and third COVID-19 waves cresting around the world, and at a time when Australia faces downside risks from China's assault on our economy.</p>
<p>With housing credit growth running at just 3.3% on an annual basis according to the latest RBA data, and lending standards the toughest they have been in modern banking history, there are scant financial stability risks for regulators to worry about at this juncture.</p>
<p>Clients will recall that Coolabah forecast a tiny 0% to 5% correction in national house prices in March, predicting they would start rising again in September and October (as they did) with total capital gains over the next few years expected to be at least 10% to 20%.</p>
<p>Coolabah has also been consistently very bearish on relations between China and the West.</p>
<p><strong>Christopher Joye </strong><em>is the portfolio manager at <a href="https://coolabahcapital.com" target="_blank">Coolabah Capital Investments</a></em></p>
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