<p>A mix of Gold Coast locals, fly-in, fly-out purchasers from Sydney and Melbourne, and Brisbane-based families has driven early sales success at Broadbeach's newest apartment tower, Lumara.</p>

<p>The 26-level project, a joint venture between builder-developer 5Point Projects and Bourke Projects, comprises just 37 luxury residences and is attracting a buyer profile that is looking for exclusivity, above the most amenity-rich suburb on the Gold Coast.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150454 project_image_fid=364156]</p>

<p>Jamie Bourke, Director of Bourke Projects, says every buyer secured so far intends to use Lumara as a lock-up-and-leave residence, combining holiday use with the ability to work remotely when required.</p>

<p>“The size of the apartments, both half- and full-floor options, and the different zones within the floorplans, lends itself perfectly to dedicated home office setups and multi-generational family holidays,” Bourke says.</p>

<p>That flexibility has become a key drawcard for affluent buyers seeking a second residence on the Gold Coast without sacrificing the ability to conduct business away from their primary home base.</p>

<p>The absence of holiday letting within the building has also resonated strongly with purchasers.</p>

<p>“This type of buyer doesn't need to generate holiday rental income,” Bourke says. “They're paying for exclusivity, privacy and certainty around who their neighbours are.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150454 project_image_fid=366491]</p>

<p>The strong demand comes amid broader shifts in the high-end apartment market following the Federal Budget announcements in May.</p>

<p>“We were already seeing strong enquiry from high-net-worth buyers, but that has only accelerated since the policy changes,” Bourke says.</p>

<p>“A lot of those buyers are looking to place more capital into premium lifestyle assets rather than investment-grade stock that has been targeted by the Federal Government.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150454 project_image_fid=366486]</p>

<p>Designed by Cottee Parker, Lumara adopts a slender, sculpted form with an emphasis on natural materials suited to its beachfront setting. The architectural approach draws on coastal influences, with a palette of stone, timber and concrete selected for durability and the ability to weather over time.</p>

<p>Apartments are limited to three and four-bedroom configurations, with a maximum of two residences per floor through the mid-levels and a selection of full-floor and dual-level homes in the upper levels. All apartments are oriented to the north to maximise natural light, cross-ventilation and views across the ocean, city skyline and hinterland.</p>

<p>A two-level amenity offering is positioned high within the building on levels 20 and 21, conceived as a sky wellness retreat. Facilities include a magnesium pool, spa, sauna and steam rooms, alongside more social spaces such as a private dining room, resident lounge, workspaces and outdoor barbecue areas integrated with landscaped greenery.</p>

<p>The uppermost levels are reserved for larger-format residences, including several full-floor homes and a dual-level penthouse with its own private wellness features and recreational spaces.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>To give buyers confidence, 5Point and Bourke commenced construction ahead of the apartments launching to the market, a sure-fire way to prove they mean business, and the building will be delivered. They are targeting a 2028 completion date.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150454]</p>


Joel Robinson

Locals, interstate holiday makers, drive early sales at Lumara, Broadbeach's newest luxury apartment tower

<p>Often when it comes to purchasing property, the biggest barrier to entry is the deposit. Buyers of established homes typically aim for a 20 per cent deposit to avoid the added cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance, while most property transactions require around a 10 per cent deposit when contracts are exchanged.</p>

<p>The off-the-plan market works differently, with buyers typically paying a deposit during construction and settling the balance upon completion. As completion approaches at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/fabbrica-fitzroy-369-gore-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">Fabbrica Fitzroy</a>, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pace-development-group">Pace</a> is making it easier for buyers to secure a residence through a deposit-matching incentive. Purchasers need only contribute a five per cent deposit*, with Pace matching the remaining five per cent.</p>

<p>The offer comes as Pace unveils a completed display apartment and townhouse, now available for inspection by appointment ahead of the project's Spring completion.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139552 project_image_fid=371009]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/winwood-mckenzie-architecture">Winwood Mckenzie</a> and landscaping by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/acre">Acre</a>, Fabbrica draws on Fitzroy’s industrial and manufacturing history, incorporating references to the former Argyle Shirt Factory and Life Savers Confectionery Company that once occupied the site.</p>

<p>The development comprises 85 residences, spanning low-maintenance apartments through to larger-format townhouses with private street access and double lock-up garages, a relatively uncommon offering in Fitzroy’s higher-density apartment market.</p>

<p>Pace says the project has been designed to appeal to buyers seeking inner-city convenience without sacrificing space, flexibility, or amenity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139552 project_image_fid=371016]</p>

<p>Inside the residences, Winwood Mckenzie has focused on adaptable layouts and integrated detailing, with features including custom joinery, and concealed storage solutions. The material palette leans into warm, tactile finishes intended to complement the building’s industrial architectural language.</p>

<p>Fabbrica’s rooftop amenity is a key part of the project offering. Spanning around 800 sqm, the communal rooftop includes a private dining room, communal kitchen, lounge spaces, work-from-home zones, and outdoor dining areas overlooking the Melbourne CBD skyline.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139552 project_image_fid=371017]</p>

<p>Landscape architecture studio Acre has introduced a layered rooftop garden designed to soften the urban setting while creating a more communal environment for residents.</p>

<p>The Fitzroy location also positions residents within walking distance of Brunswick Street, Smith Street, parks, cafés, galleries, and public transport, while remaining only minutes from Melbourne’s CBD. The project has an enviable Walk Score of 96.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139552 project_image_fid=371025]</p>

<p>Pace, which is also delivering the project as builder, has developed more than 100 projects across Melbourne over the past three decades. The vertically integrated approach has become increasingly common among developers seeking greater control over construction delivery amid broader market pressures affecting the apartment sector.</p>

<p>The strikingly contemporary Gore Street development is now around 70 per cent complete, with purchasers expected to move into their new homes in Spring 2026. A limited number of residences remain available under the current deposit match offer.</p>

<p><sup>*Conditions apply in relation to the deposit match offer.</sup></p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=139552]</p>


Pace offers five per cent deposit match at Fabbrica Fitzroy ahead of Spring completion

<p data-end="181" data-start="0">Sydney developer Hyecorp's roots on the Lower North Shore stretch back three generations, and that deep understanding of the market continues to shape where and how it develops today.</p>

<p data-end="484" data-start="183">From high-rise towers to boutique apartment projects, the family-run developer has built its reputation by focusing on a part of Sydney it knows intimately. Founded by Michael Abolakian in the early 1990s, Hyecorp is now led by his sons Stephen, Troy and Patrick.</p>

<p data-end="657" data-start="486">Stephen Abolakian, joint managing director alongside Troy, has spent more than two decades in the business, overseeing development, planning, finance, marketing and sales.</p>

<p data-end="806" data-start="659">Abolakian says the developer's disciplined focus on where it chooses to operate has been, and continues to be, one of Hyecorp's greatest strengths.</p>

<p data-end="871" data-start="808">“We know the buyer profile exceptionally well,” Abolakian says.</p>

<p data-end="1097" data-start="873">“The demographics between places like Willoughby, Chatswood, St Leonards and Roseville are very similar. There are nuances between suburbs and projects, but culturally and from a buyer perspective, there’s a strong overlap.”</p>

<p data-end="1169" data-start="1099">That buyer has historically been overwhelmingly owner-occupier driven.</p>

<p data-end="1434" data-start="1171">Unlike many Sydney apartment developers that have traditionally relied heavily on investor demand, Hyecorp’s projects have typically attracted downsizers, upsizers, rightsizers and family owner-occupiers seeking long-term homes rather than short-term investments.</p>

<p data-end="1533" data-start="1436">“Historically, investors have been a much smaller portion of our demand profile,” Abolakian says.</p>

<p data-end="1665" data-start="1535">“We design for owner-occupiers. We don’t design for yield, we design for comfort, amenity, family living and long-term usability.”</p>

<p data-end="1721" data-start="1667">That philosophy extends well beyond apartment layouts.</p>

<p data-end="1966" data-start="1723">From landscaping and communal gardens to shared amenities and circulation spaces, Hyecorp’s developments are designed around how people actually live, something Abolakian believes has become increasingly important in Sydney’s apartment market.</p>

<p data-end="2051" data-start="1968">“There was probably a period where having an approved project in market was enough,” he says.</p>

<p data-end="2154" data-start="2053">“There wasn’t as much competition and if you built it, buyers would come. That’s no longer the case.”</p>

<p data-end="2386" data-start="2156">“There’s more supply in the pipeline now, particularly with TOD precincts and low and mid-rise reforms opening up opportunities across Sydney. Buyers have more choice, so if you get the product wrong, they’ll simply go elsewhere.”</p>

<p data-end="2386" data-start="2156">[smartcode_project:default project_id=110379 project_image_fid=311393]</p>

<p data-end="2549" data-start="2388">The shift has forced developers to become more sophisticated in how they approach apartment design, particularly as owner-occupier expectations continue to rise.</p>

<p data-end="2678" data-start="2551">For Hyecorp, that means thinking beyond who the buyer is today and designing for who they may become in five or 10 years' time.</p>

<p data-end="2757" data-start="2680">“People buying now often aren’t moving in for several years,” Abolakian says.</p>

<p data-end="2949" data-start="2759">“You might have a young couple buying today, but by the time they move in they may have children, older children, or changing lifestyle needs. You’ve got to think about how families evolve.”</p>

<p data-end="3219" data-start="3163">That thinking also shapes Hyecorp’s approach to amenity, which positions wellness at the forefront.</p>

<p data-end="3219" data-start="3163">[smartcode_project:default project_id=149594 project_image_fid=362634]</p>

<p data-end="3454" data-start="3221">While resort-style facilities have become increasingly common marketing tools across Sydney apartment developments, Abolakian says the challenge is ensuring amenities are genuinely usable and appropriate for the scale of the project.</p>

<p data-end="3546" data-start="3456">“If amenities are done right, they can materially improve the living experience,” he says, adding however that if you&nbsp;overdo it or get it wrong, you can end up with facilities nobody uses that simply create ongoing strata costs.”</p>

<p data-end="3919" data-start="3669">That balance is something Hyecorp is aiming to strike with projects like Roseville Avenue, one of the group's upcoming Lower North Shore developments, which Abolakian describes as bringing a resort-style living experience into a metropolitan setting.</p>

<p data-end="4005" data-start="3921">“It’s about creating something that feels special without being excessive,” he says.</p>

<p data-end="4112" data-start="4007">“Good gardens, quality apartments, thoughtful amenity. Creating that resort feeling in a metro location.”</p>

<p data-end="4112" data-start="4007"><img alt="Hyecorp" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="13c4c0f3-b1b7-44cf-9344-0b3d1d07797a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-02%20at%2012.14.57%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=9OLWjyj2bYkDV35F78WJnyMSPfc2bJ2z" /></p>

<p data-end="4243" data-start="4114">The focus on owner-occupier product comes as Sydney’s apartment market continues to navigate a difficult development environment.&nbsp;For Hyecorp, maintaining an in-house operating model across construction, sales, marketing and development management has become increasingly important in navigating that environment.</p>

<p data-end="5230" data-start="5149">“We’ve always believed in keeping a lot of the process in-house,” Abolakian says.</p>

<p data-end="5392" data-start="5232">“It creates efficiencies, but it also creates quality control. You can make faster decisions and ensure the end product stays aligned with the original vision.”</p>

<p data-end="5674" data-start="5394">Despite the challenges, Abolakian believes demand for quality owner-occupier apartments across Sydney remains strong beneath the surface, particularly across established Lower North Shore suburbs where downsizers continue to seek new housing options close to existing communities.</p>

<p data-end="5723" data-start="5676">“There are definitely people waiting,” he says.</p>

<p data-end="5902" data-start="5725">“Once some of the broader uncertainty settles, whether that’s the global environment or some of the local economic noise, I think the right projects will perform very strongly.”</p>

<p style="text-align:start">Hyecorp currently has three residential developments on the market across Sydney’s Lower North Shore.&nbsp;Audrey, St Leonards, positioned opposite Newlands Park, is nearing completion and preparing to welcome its first residents, with the project now almost sold out.</p>

<p style="text-align:start">Hyecorp has also recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/celine-chatswood-37-archer-street-chatswood-nsw-2067">Celine Chatswood</a>, an architectural tower, while continuing to deliver&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet Roseville</a>, a more boutique scale of development with just 34 apartments.</p>


Why Hyecorp continues to back Sydney's Lower North Shore apartment market

<p>South East Queensland’s apartment market is entering a new phase defined by rising prices, constrained affordability, and mounting pressure on the construction pipeline, according to RPM Group’s latest SEQ Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report.</p>

<p>The May 2026 report highlights a widening divide between what buyers can afford and what developers can viably deliver, with detached house prices continuing to push more buyers toward apartments across Brisbane, the Gold Coast, and the Sunshine Coast.</p>

<p>RPM says Brisbane’s median house price has reached around $1.5 million, accelerating the shift toward higher-density housing as buyers are increasingly priced out of the detached market.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135094 project_image_fid=356540]</p>

<p>Median unit prices rose across all three major SEQ markets in the March quarter. Brisbane City recorded the strongest annual growth, with median unit prices climbing 21 per cent to $862,000, while the Gold Coast reached the highest overall median at $950,000, up 17 per cent year-on-year. The Sunshine Coast followed at $870,000, representing annual growth of nine per cent.</p>

<p>RPM noted the affordability gap between houses and units remains significant, with detached homes commanding premiums of 67 per cent in Brisbane and 68 per cent on the Gold Coast relative to apartments.</p>

<p>The report suggests this price disparity is increasingly consolidating buyer demand within the apartment market, particularly among downsizers and owner-occupiers.</p>

<p>“Demand is real. Supply is moving. But they’re operating on different timelines and the gap between what’s being built and what buyers can afford is the defining tension in this market right now,” RPM Queensland and NSW Managing Directors Peter Neale and Clinton Trezise said in the report.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150787 project_image_fid=366230]</p>

<p>While approvals and commencements are strengthening, RPM argues the delivery pipeline remains constrained by construction costs, labour shortages, and extended build timelines.</p>

<p>Apartment approvals across Queensland increased 86 per cent over the year to February 2026, reaching 12,682 approvals, the highest level recorded since 2016. Brisbane overtook the Gold Coast as the state’s most active apartment approval market, with nearly 5,000 apartments approved over the past 12 months.</p>

<p>Unit commencements also strengthened considerably, rising 48 per cent year-on-year to 5,453 commencements in the December 2025 quarter, the highest level since 2018.</p>

<p>However, RPM’s research found apartment delivery timeframes have expanded sharply compared to the previous cycle. Projects are now averaging around 30 months from approval to completion, compared to roughly 20 months a decade ago.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=143932 project_image_fid=367515]</p>

<p>The number of units under construction has climbed to approximately 31,530 dwellings, nearing the previous 2016 peak, though projects are remaining in the pipeline for considerably longer.</p>

<p>Construction costs continue to weigh heavily on feasibility. RPM found the average apartment construction cost in Greater Brisbane reached $630,000 per dwelling in 2025, exceeding both Sydney and Melbourne. Coastal Queensland markets, including the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, were even higher at an average of $817,418 per apartment due to the prevalence of larger premium product.</p>

<p>The report also points to increasing pressure from Olympic-related infrastructure spending ahead of Brisbane 2032, with labour competition expected to intensify over the next several years.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370960]</p>

<p>ANZ Associate Director of Property Daniel Gradwell said the underlying demand drivers across South East Queensland remain strong, supported by interstate migration, downsizers, and population growth.</p>

<p>“The challenge is bringing enough supply to market to meet that demand, and nothing on the horizon makes that straightforward,” Gradwell said.</p>

<p>RPM’s analysis found the affordability challenge is becoming more pronounced in the new apartment market itself, with only three per cent of surveyed new apartments priced below $1 million.</p>

<p>Instead, the market is increasingly concentrated in higher price brackets, with the most common new apartment price band across SEQ sitting between $1.5 million and $1.75 million. Around half of all new apartment stock surveyed is priced below $2 million.</p>

<p>The report suggests developers are not necessarily avoiding lower price points by choice, but because current construction economics make delivering affordable apartments increasingly difficult at scale.</p>

<p>Rental conditions also remain tight across the region. Median rents for one-bedroom apartments rose 12 per cent in Brisbane over the past year to $580 per week, while Gold Coast one-bedroom rents increased nine per cent to $630.</p>

<p>Despite rising rents, RPM noted bond lodgements have generally trended downward over the past five years, indicating more apartments are being absorbed by owner-occupiers rather than retained as investor-held rental stock.</p>

<p>Looking ahead, RPM expects projects targeting the mid-market owner-occupier segment between $1.25 million and $2 million to remain the most viable part of the market, while premium projects in highly constrained coastal or riverfront locations continue to attract demand.</p>

<p>“Construction costs are rewriting the feasibility rulebook across Greater Brisbane, and with little relief in sight, only projects in the right price band, right location, and with presales secured early will make it through,” the report concludes.</p>


SEQ apartment demand outpacing affordable supply as construction timelines stretch: RPM

<p data-end="231" data-start="139">Camberwell Junction has long been the epicentre of amenity in Melbourne’s Boroondara region.</p>

<p data-end="597" data-start="233">For nearly a century, it has drawn both locals and visitors, anchored by the Camberwell Sunday Market, which first operated in 1929 and quickly became a fixture of the suburb’s identity. Over time, the Junction evolved into one of Melbourne’s most established retail and lifestyle precincts, now comprising more than 400 stores and over 300 commercial businesses.</p>

<p data-end="699" data-start="599">Despite that depth of amenity, one thing has remained notably limited: the supply of new apartments.</p>

<p data-end="1041" data-start="701">In a suburb defined by its heritage streetscapes and tightly held residential stock, new development opportunities have been scarce, particularly within the core of the Junction itself. That lack of supply has left a gap in the market for larger, design-led apartments suited to downsizers and owner-occupiers wanting to remain in the area.</p>

<p data-end="1173" data-start="1043">Boutique developer Above Zero identified that gap when it secured a prime site on Burke Road, in the heart of Camberwell Junction.</p>

<p data-end="1173" data-start="1043">[smartcode_project:default project_id=4896 project_image_fid=368543]</p>

<p data-end="1566" data-start="1175">The site has a long planning history. Various proposals have been put forward over more than a decade, many of which were knocked back by the City of Boroondara, with initial applications dating back to 2015. Above Zero acquired the site in 2022 and returned with a revised scheme, refining both the building’s height and its ground-level interface to better align with Council expectations.</p>

<p data-end="1629" data-start="1568">That process has culminated in approval for Camberwell House.</p>

<p data-end="1845" data-start="1631">The Cera Stribley-designed development will deliver 57 residences on a 1,950 sqm site within the Camberwell Activity Centre, placing it directly within one of Melbourne’s most established retail and transport hubs.</p>

<p data-end="2162" data-start="1847">It is expected to be one of the only new apartment developments to launch in the Junction in recent years, reinforcing the rarity of new supply in the precinct. Currently, there are just a handful of projects on the market in Camberwell, underscoring the significance of a development of this scale and positioning.</p>

<p data-end="2162" data-start="1847">[smartcode_project:default project_id=4896 project_image_fid=368544]</p>

<p data-end="2438" data-start="2164">Camberwell House has been conceived with a clear focus on larger-format apartments. The project will offer a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom residences, alongside a limited number of penthouses, targeting owner-occupiers seeking scale rather than volume-driven product.</p>

<p data-end="2496" data-start="2440">The building’s vertical presence will also set it apart.</p>

<p data-end="2868" data-start="2498">Positioned on Burke Road, the development is set to become one of the taller buildings in its immediate context, allowing for elevated outlooks across Melbourne’s CBD skyline and toward the Dandenong Ranges. In a precinct characterised by lower-scale built form, that height provides a point of differentiation, particularly for buyers seeking outlook and natural light.</p>

<p data-end="2868" data-start="2498">[smartcode_project:default project_id=4896 project_image_fid=368568]</p>

<p data-end="3133" data-start="2870">Architecture has been led by Cera Stribley, with interiors by GOLDEN and landscape design by Florian Wild. The design approach centres on material consistency and restraint, with residences oriented to maximise light, ventilation and connection to outdoor spaces.</p>

<p data-end="3317" data-start="3135">Full-height glazing and generous terraces form a key part of that strategy, allowing apartments to extend beyond their internal footprint and engage with the surrounding environment.</p>

<p data-end="3413" data-start="3319">Beyond the private residences, a significant component of the project is its amenity offering.</p>

<p data-end="3710" data-start="3415">Above Zero has positioned Camberwell House as a “complete living environment”, incorporating a full floor dedicated to resident facilities. At the centre of that is a wellness zone, including a 12.5-metre lap pool, spa, sauna and treatment spaces, alongside a gym and recovery-focused amenities.</p>

<p data-end="3852" data-start="3712">This level of amenity is more commonly associated with inner-city developments, rather than established middle-ring suburbs like Camberwell.</p>

<p data-end="3852" data-start="3712">[smartcode_project:default project_id=4896 project_image_fid=368588]</p>

<p data-end="4137" data-start="3854">Additional shared spaces include a private library lounge, dining and entertaining areas, and an indoor golf simulator. A self-contained guest suite has also been incorporated, allowing residents to accommodate visiting family or friends without impacting their primary living space.</p>

<p data-end="4220" data-start="4139">The inclusion of these facilities reflects a broader shift in buyer expectations.</p>

<p data-end="4590" data-start="4222">As more downsizers look to transition from larger family homes into apartments, there is increasing demand for developments that offer not just a residence, but a lifestyle. That includes access to wellness, social and entertaining spaces within the building itself, reducing the reliance on external amenity while still maintaining proximity to established precincts.</p>

<p data-end="4644" data-start="4592">Camberwell House is positioned to benefit from both.</p>

<p data-end="4919" data-start="4646">Its location places it within immediate walking distance of Camberwell Junction’s retail and dining offering, as well as public transport connections, including tram and train services. That combination of internal amenity and external convenience is central to its appeal.</p>

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-150" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:55d7c6ac-8e6d-4881-ad49-0ed9bf66d1cc-74" dir="auto">
<p data-end="271" data-start="88">Jellis Craig Projects Director Stephen Bowtell is handling sales for the project and says Camberwell House offers a rare entry point into one of Melbourne’s most tightly held markets.</p>

<p style="text-align:start">“Buyers are recognising that Camberwell House offers something they simply haven’t seen before in Boroondara,”&nbsp;Bowtell&nbsp;says.</p>

<p>“It combines a level of resident amenity and service typically associated with Melbourne’s premium inner-city developments, while being positioned right in the heart of Camberwell Junction.</p>

<p>“The response to the concierge offering has been particularly strong. Buyers appreciate not only the convenience, but also the sense of security and peace of mind that comes from having a dedicated presence in the building every day.</p>

<p>“When you combine that with the wellness facilities, the exceptional arrival experience, and panoramic views across both the CBD skyline and the Dandenong Ranges, it creates a lifestyle proposition that is genuinely unique within the local market.”</p>
</section>

<p data-end="5000" data-start="4921">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4896]</p>


Above Zero launches Camberwell House in undersupplied Camberwell Junction precinct

Property Correction

<html><body>
<div id="post-body-2934597644349298689" class="post-body entry-content">
<div class="separator">Some years ago there were doomsday predictions of a property correction in Australia since dwelling prices had reached three times the value of our Gross Domestic Product (the exact relevance of the three times figure was never adequately explained).</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Today, the ratio is just over 3.6 times, having ticked down slightly over the past six months of publicly available official figures.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Is there a link between the two measures? Kind of, but it's not very strong.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">In fact, as a predictor of property prices the ratio has been useless in recent years. Actually, no, it's been worse than useless - it has been a contra-indicator!</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">One problem with GDP is that it's historic in nature, so at best it tells you what was happening in the economy months ago - thus as an indicator of future outcomes it's necessarily all that useful.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">More pertinently this ratio doesn't make a lot of logical sense since it compares a <strong>stock</strong> value at a fixed point in time with a <strong>flow</strong>, being the value of goods and services produced over a specified period of time (in the example in the chart below, one year).   </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/06/STOCK.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/06/STOCK.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Furthermore, some types of property in thinner markets fare much better in times of boom, and worse in times of bust. And some types of property in some inner suburban locations tend to outperform the averages over time, while properties is lower demand generally fail to keep pace with the averages.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Key national accounts aggregates</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">In today's electronically connected world, hordes have wanted to be the person to 'call' the next Australian recession. But the economy has proved to be surprisingly robust, with the annualised rate of GDP growth for the past six months accelerating to 3.6 per cent. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The riposte has been that GDP is the "wrong" measure - we should ignore GDP and look at national income. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">It is indeed true that real (i.e. adjusted for inflation) gross national income has stalled, but then again Australia's commodity prices could not and did not grow to the sky, so this isn't necessarily that surprising. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Another way to look at this is that national income has more than doubled over the past twenty years, even after accounting for inflation.</div>
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<div class="separator">Moreover, if GDP is an unreliable measure of the performance of the economy, how can it be a good measure of dwelling prices? Can't have it both ways! </div>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">National accounts</span></strong></div>
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<div class="separator">The national accounts provide us with a range of figures relating to the property markets, but as implied by the name of the data release the figures are national and backward-looking in nature, and therefore don't really tell us much of interest about what sub-regional property markets are up to or will be up to.</div>
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<div class="separator">As noted, the national accounts lag a bit, but broadly home owners owe about $1 trillion in mortgage debt, and investors about $550 billion. What is not so well shown by these figures is that mortgage buffers and offset accounts are also at record high levels. </div>
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<br><div>With dwelling price growth having outpaced the growth in household debt, gearing ratios have declined in recent years.</div>
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<br><div class="separator">None of which tells of much of any predictive value. We can all think of housing markets in Australia that are overvalued; but equally we can all name others where prices are getting walloped or have already crashed. </div>
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<div class="separator">If there is one ratio from the national accounts which is useful in predicting where to next for dwelling prices - and I'm not saying that there necessarily is - it's the ratio of housing interest payable to income. </div>
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<div class="separator">The actual quoted percentage figure is skewed lower since so many households have no mortgage debt at all, but has declined from a peak of 16.4 per cent in June 2008 to 9.7 per cent by December 2015. </div>
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<div class="separator">On this measure, mortgage repayments are more than 40 per cent cheaper than they were at their 2008 peak.</div>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Rates heading lower?</span></strong></div>
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<div class="separator">It would be fair to say that if mortgage rates head back to where they were at their most recent peak of about 8 to 9 per cent, then many of Australia's housing markets are heading into correction territory. </div>
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<div class="separator">It's an interesting bet if you want to take it on. But money markets are begging to differ, with yields grinding out new lows in anticipation of possible Brexit turmoil. </div>
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<div class="separator">Yesterday Australia's 10 year government bond yield fell to its lowest ever level at well below 2 per cent.</div>
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<br><div>Meanwhile, OIS rates are on a seek and destroy mission to crunch out new record lows, and they are winning that particular battle. We are now just one benign inflation print from seeing a new record low cash rate in August.</div>
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<img src="/images/2016/07/06/OIS.jpg" alt=""><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br><div>GDP is a useful measure of the strength or otherwise of the economy. And over the long term stronger economic growth may be reflected in higher dwelling prices - but not necessarily so, since there are so many other contributory factors, such as tax settings or the supply of new dwellings, for example. </div>
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<div>It's true that property prices can fall during recessions. But then again they can fall when GDP is positive such as they did in 2011 and early 2012.<br><br>And what about China, where real GDP growth has slowed from above 13 per cent in 2007 to just 6.7 per cent (if you can call 6.7 per cent slow), yet house prices in Shenzhen have skyrocketed by more than 50 per cent within the past year?<br><br>Obviously there are many other factors at play than purely economic growth.  And if there is a correlation between GDP and dwelling stock valuations, it's a tenuous one. </div>
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<div class="post-footer"> 
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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The GDP myth and doomsday property predictions: Pete Wargent

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<p>The Australian states' mid-year reviews (MYRs) revealed that revenue pressures from the housing market correction will partly offset gains from the GST funding reform, according to Moody's Investors Service.</p>
<p>Moody's Investors Service noted that at the same time, they expect higher-than-budgeted capital spending to become a major challenge for states as most embark on record capital spending programs, causing debt to rise more rapidly than revenue.</p>
<p>They added that for some states, debt will start rising from a lower level than in earlier budget projections, overall debt burdens will remain elevated over the next four years, increasing vulnerability to risks such as unbudgeted health and education reform costs.</p>
<p><strong>Housing correction will partly erode revenue gains from GST reform:</strong></p>
<p>Additional Commonwealth GST top-up payments will be offset by a weaker housing market according to Moody's</p>
<p>However, a weaker housing market will offset these gains.</p>
<p>John Manning, Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service said, "following strong growth in transfer duty revenue in recent years, particularly driven by very strong house prices along the Australian east coast, the MYRs forecast a larger drop in property-related revenue than previously budgeted."</p>
<p>"Despite already projecting lower property-related revenue in their FY2019 budgets, the larger states of NSW and Victoria now forecast further declines in transfer duty and land tax revenue as a result of weakening residential property market prices and falling sales volumes."</p>
<p>He noted however, "revenue projections for both states increased overall."</p>
<p>"Both NSW and Victoria expect to receive additional Commonwealth grant revenue to offset lower transfer duty revenue."</p>
<p>"Higher payroll tax revenue, mineral royalties and an upward revision to GST also increased NSW’s revenue projections, while Victoria’s projections improved due to higher payroll taxes from stronger full-time employment and wage growth," he concluded.</p>
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New South Wales and Victoria feeling the pressure from housing correction: Moody's

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<p>Australia’s property market isn't going to crash, according to the Commonwealth Bank economist Gareth Aird.</p>
<p>Nor even a hard landing, but something not too dissimilar to the corrections of 2010 and 1989, he said.</p>
<p>But he has forecast that house prices in Sydney and Melbourne will continue declining until the end of next year.</p>
<p>“We (CBA) see the peak to trough being around 10% in Sydney and a little less in Melbourne (8.8%)," he told Business Insider.</p>
<p>Click <a href="https://edge.alluremedia.com.au/uploads/businessinsider/2018/09/CBA1.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge</p>
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<img src="https://edge.alluremedia.com.au/uploads/businessinsider/2018/09/CBA1.jpg" alt="">Source: <small>Commonwealth Bank</small>
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<p>Aird’s model is calculated as a function of the four variables listed below.</p>
<p>1. Annual changes in mortgage rates (1 year advanced);</p>
<p>2. The annual change in the flow of credit (six months advanced);</p>
<p>3. Auction clearance rates (four months advanced);</p>
<p>and 4. The house price expectations index from the Westpac/Melbourne Insitute consumer sentiment survey (2 months advanced).</p>
<p>He concedes that “predicting property prices can look foolish retrospectively”.</p>
<p>However, the chart below shows that the four leading indicators outlined above track actual movements in house prices “very well”.</p>
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<img src="https://edge.alluremedia.com.au/uploads/businessinsider/2018/09/CBA2.jpg" alt="">Source: <small>Commonwealth Bank</small>
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<p>“Clearly, we can’t forecast auction clearance rates or the household perception around the future path of dwelling prices.”</p>
<p>CBA’s base case is that Sydney home prices will decline by 5% annually in 2018 — a relatively mild assessment given the latest weekly data from CoreLogic Sydney house prices are currently 5.9% lower than this time last year.</p>
<p>That would take overall declines from Sydney’s July 2017 peak to around 7.5%.</p>
<p>“For Melbourne, prices would be down by around 5% from their November 2017 peak,” Aird said.</p>
<p>“Nationally, we think prices will end the year down by around 3% with a roughly similar outcome likely in 2019."</p>
<p>Aird noted the broader economy outside of housing is still performing well, along with the continued strength in Australia’s labour market.</p>
<p>He expects the unemployment rate will decline further which lowers the risk of mortgage defaults.</p>
<p>There’s Australian rate of population growth, he added.</p>
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CBA's Gareth Aird forecasts 10 percent decline in Sydney house prices into 2019

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<p>McGrath founder and real estate veteran John McGrath has said he was misquoted in a report that the Sydney market was 40% overvalued.</p>
<p>“The Sydney market is most of the way thought its sales cycle and very near the top of its cycle.</p>
<p>"My view is there is no bubble, and no chance of a 40% correction,” clarified McGrath. </p>
<p>He had been misquoted saying he thought the Sydney market was 40 per cent overvalued, comments first published by Mortgage Business website, repeated on the Smart Property Investment site and then picked up by Business Insider, prompting a denial by John McGrath.</p>
<p>At the same time - and in the same article - he'd advised he thought there might be a <span> “small correction while the market catches its breath.”</span></p>
<p>The real estate expert had been attending the mortgage broker AussieThink conference on Monday on the Gold Coast where he sat on a panel with Aussie John Symond and banker Ian Narev, hosted by 2GB's Ross Greenwood.</p>
<p>He noted that there are “two housing markets” in Australia, and according to him the one that incorporated the two major cities of Sydney and Melbourne was at the end of its cycle.</p>
<p>“There are two markets in Australia, the Sydney/Melbourne market being one and the rest of Australia, and that could be broken into regionals and other capitals. If you look at the last 10 years, we have seen Sydney/Melbourne [prices] have doubled and we’ve seen most of the other capital cities increase by 10–20 per cent, so it really is a big separation of the two markets,” McGrath was quoted as saying by the Mortgage Business.</p>
<p>The report quoted him as saying that the two cities were “at least 95 per cent through their current cycle”, adding that “it could be 100 per cent in Sydney”.</p>
<p>“I don’t see any material capital growth in the next few years and, equally confidently, I don’t see any material drop either. I’ve been through five cycles and each time the market does see significant growth over a two- to three-year period."</p>
<p>“Yes Sydney is overvalued compared to other areas of Australia, however it is a world class international city and a major financial centre. I’ve long said that South East Queensland is undervalued and shows great growth potential,” said McGrath in a media release clarifying his remarks. </p>
<p>He said the market had strong drivers including deep demand, population growth, overseas investment and low interest rates but there was a possibility of a small and short correction of a few percent, and “I believe that is healthy for the sustainability of the market”.</p>
<p>His firm's profit fell 42 percent for the year ended June 30 and the company announced a share buyback to support its sliding share price.</p>
<p>The Australian Financial Review's Street Talk column has written private equity firms are "circling" the company.</p>
<div>
<p>It advised Anchorage Capital, Adamantem Capital, Advent Partners and Crescent Capital Partners are among firms reputedly having run the numbers on McGrath.</p>
<p>Street Talk was not suggesting any approach has been made to the board, or that talks are under way ahead of a formal end to an escrow period - for about 46.3 per cent of total issued capital - on September 8. </p>
</div>
<div>More than half of these shares are held by founder John McGrath, who retains the biggest shareholding with a 27 per cent stake.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Once the escrow period ends as much as 20 per cent of the register could change hands, should founding agents and others opt to sell," the AFR suggested.</div>
<div>
<p>McGrath is speculated as potentially proceeding with a privatisation of the the nation's third-largest real estate sale business.</p>
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