<p>Gold Coast property professionals Jared Johnson and Zac Potter have teamed up to launch their debut property development, Basalt Lane, a boutique collection of architecturally designed warehouse units set to rise in Tweed Heads South.</p>

<p>Potter, a proven developer in his own right, is the founder of 21 Property Group and son of respected developer John Potter, while Johnson, director of leading commercial real estate agency Coastal Commercial, has been involved in hundreds of high-profile industrial transactions across South-East Queensland and Northern NSW.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Located at 80–82 Industry Drive, Basalt Lane will feature just eight premium warehouse units with flexible low-impact zoning, rare dual street access, and sleek, contemporary finishes not often seen in the Industrial sector. Construction is scheduled to commence in Q4 2025.</p>

<p>“This joint venture made sense from day one,” says Johnson, who is spearheading the sales campaign.</p>

<p>“Zac brings proven development experience, and I have a strong grasp of the local industrial market through years of commercial sales in the area. By combining our strengths, we saw an opportunity not just for ourselves — but to deliver something the local community genuinely needs. There’s a clear demand for modern, flexible, and flood-free industrial spaces in this region, and Basalt Lane is our answer to that.”</p>

<p>Strategically positioned just 700 metres from the M1 Motorway and under 10 minutes from Gold Coast Airport, the project offers high appeal for investors, small business owners looking for a coastal work base with premium connectivity or a secure storage solution.</p>

<p>The launch of Basalt Lane comes amid a surge in industrial development across the Tweed region. According to Tweed Shire Council, the area is undergoing major transformation, including the Industry Central Land Swap, a government-backed initiative relocating flood-affected businesses to higher ground. The $11.3 million program is creating modern, job-generating industrial hubs built for long-term resilience.</p>

<p>Projects like Quarry Business Park, also marketed through Johnson’s Coastal Commercial — are also breaking ground in 2025 — highlight the growing demand for flood-free, future-proof industrial space in one of Australia’s fastest-growing regional economies.</p>

<p>“We’re proud to be contributing to the next chapter of growth here,” said Potter. “Basalt Lane is a long-term play — it’s designed to deliver value now and remain relevant for years to come.”</p>

<p>The project responds to broader market trends, including the rise of flexible “co-warehousing”, demand for hybrid industrial-office spaces, and growing interest in regional coworking hubs. With Australia’s coworking sector forecast to grow at 23.6% CAGR to 2030, and similar small-scale developments selling out in major cities, Basalt Lane offers a timely, lifestyle-forward business solution.</p>

<p>Potter and Johnson bring years of experience across real estate and development throughout the Gold Coast and Northern Rivers corridor. For them, Basalt Lane represents more than just a business move — it’s a personal milestone.</p>

<p>“There’s no big fund behind us. We’re not a national group,” said Potter. “We’re two mates with experience and vision and we’re having a go.”</p>

<p>With limited supply and rising demand, Basalt Lane is expected to attract strong early interest from entrepreneurs, trade-based businesses, owner-occupiers, and investors seeking solid long-term returns in a high-growth coastal hub.</p>


Jared Johnson and Zac Potter, have teamed up to launch their debut property development: Basalt Lane, Tweed Heads - a boutique collection of architecturally designed warehouse units set to rise in Tweed Heads South.

Urban Editorial

Gold Coast entrepreneurs launch premium industrial project in booming Tweed Heads South

<p>Enfield may be home to fewer than 3,000 residents, but its prime location between Strathfield and Burwood has cemented its status as one of the Inner West’s hidden gems.</p>

<p data-end="405" data-start="269">The suburb offers a village-style lifestyle with an abundance of cafés, restaurants, and boutique shops, staples of Inner West living.</p>

<p data-end="702" data-start="407">At the last census, there were only around 300 apartments in the suburb. Fewer than a handful of new apartment developments have been delivered in recent years, but none are as well positioned as The Carlyle, just a three-minute walk to Henley Park, arguably one of the best parks in the area.</p>

<p data-end="830" data-start="704"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-carlyle-enfield-164-liverpool-rd-enfield-nsw-2136">The Carlyle</a> will comprise 32 one- and two-bedroom apartments, a mix rarely seen in the new development market across Sydney.</p>

<p data-end="902" data-start="832">[smartcode_project:default project_id=148733 project_image_fid=6667]</p>

<p data-end="985" data-start="904"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects-western-sydney">Ray White Projects WS</a>&nbsp;is fielding enquiry from several buyer types.</p>

<p data-end="1141" data-start="987">"First home buyers are realising this is the best time to get into the market," says Mark Bernberg, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects-western-sydney">Ray White Projects WS</a>&nbsp;Managing Director.</p>

<p data-end="1386" data-start="1143">"There are now several government incentives assisting first home buyers to get onto the property ladder. The recent announcement to waive lender's mortgage insurance for those with low deposits puts tens of thousands back in their pockets. Pair that with stamp duty savings in the new apartment space, and there has never been a better time to be a first home buyer in the off the plan apartment market."</p>

<p data-end="1666" data-start="1388">Bernberg has also seen a re-emergence of investors, attracted to the low supply of apartments in Enfield and the suburb's lifestyle, while also being on the fringe of Burwood, which is set to undergo a huge transformation with its recent rezoning around the new metro station.</p>

<p data-end="1786" data-start="1668">"That will bring a wealth of new retail and amenity to the area, which tends to drive prices higher," Bernberg says.</p>

<p data-end="1954" data-start="1788">"Rents are at record highs, and with interest rates coming down from the highs earlier this year, investment apartments are starting to stack up again financially."</p>

<p data-end="1954" data-start="1788">[smartcode_project:default project_id=148733 project_image_fid=6665]</p>

<p data-end="2166" data-start="1956">The Carlyle apartments will sit above doorstep amenity, with a two-level retail podium incorporated into the striking building. The retail component will include a new ground-floor café facing Carlyle Street.</p>

<p data-end="2432" data-start="2168">Two-bedroom apartments range from 67 sqm to 83 sqm internally, with some of the larger residences on the top level featuring expansive wraparound balconies. These layouts are designed to enhance seamless indoor-outdoor living, maximising natural light and views.</p>

<p data-end="2504" data-start="2434">[smartcode_project:default project_id=148733 project_image_fid=6666]</p>

<p data-end="2759" data-start="2506">The Carlyle's proximity to Henley Park is one of its biggest drawcards. The 13-hectare park includes multiple sports fields, two fenced playgrounds designed for various age groups, and Enfield Aquatic Centre, complete with Olympic-sized swimming pool.</p>

<p data-end="2822" data-start="2761">The Carlyle is on track to welcome residents in early 2026.</p>

<p data-end="2873" data-start="2824">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6667]</p>


Joel Robinson

The Carlyle in Enfield launches to undersupplied Inner West market

<p data-end="628" data-start="215">A new Metro stop, a thriving café scene, and proximity to village-style retail have cemented St Leonards as one of the Lower North Shore’s most sought-after suburbs for new development.</p>

<p data-end="628" data-start="215">Among those seizing the opportunity is Sekisui House Australia, which has chosen this prized pocket, in the St Leonards South precinct, for its first-ever inner-city apartment project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/waterstone-st-leonards-24-berry-road-st-leonards-nsw-2065">Waterstone</a>.</p>

<p data-end="628" data-start="215">[smartcode_project:default project_id=134191 project_image_fid=230]</p>

<p data-end="1044" data-start="630">Set for completion in the summer of 2027, Waterstone comprises 207 apartments across five buildings, designed to look south back to the&nbsp;Sydney&nbsp;CBD.&nbsp;The new project offers residents the rare balance of connected urban living and tranquil green surrounds.</p>

<p data-end="1044" data-start="630">Just moments from home lies Smoothey Park, a blend of natural bushland and manicured parkland. It forms part of the Wollstonecraft cluster of reserves, including Gore Cove, Badangi Reserve, and Berry Island, all offering peaceful escapes on the Harbour’s edge.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KCD5mtyKBjc?si=DcC6Koxg6shdDFzq" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>When it comes to lifestyle, St Leonards and its neighbouring suburbs, Crows Nest, Waverton, Greenwich, and Wollstonecraft, deliver an endless array of cafés, restaurants, and boutique retailers. Nearby Mall 88, only 650 metres from Waterstone, adds convenience with over 30 specialty stores.</p>

<p data-end="1324" data-start="1046">Connectivity is another major drawcard. The new Crows Nest Metro Station is just one kilometre away, while St Leonards Train Station is a short seven-minute walk. For a more scenic commute, the Greenwich Point Wharf ferry reaches Circular Quay in under 30 minutes.</p>

<p data-end="1324" data-start="1046">[smartcode_project:default project_id=134191 project_image_fid=351953]</p>

<p data-end="1876" data-start="1631">For peace of mind, Royal North Shore Hospital, one of Sydney’s most prominent medical hubs, sits just 650 metres away, making Waterstone ideal for healthcare professionals or residents seeking easy access to world-class medical facilities.</p>

<p data-end="2045" data-start="1878">Perfectly positioned on the fringe of vibrant activity yet embraced by parkland serenity, Waterstone offers the best of both worlds in Sydney’s evolving Lower North Shore.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134191]</p>


Nature and connection define life at Waterstone in emerging St Leonards South precinct

<p>A new collection of residences is now available at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/sol-by-walker-maroochydore-first-avenue-maroochydore-qld-4558">SOL by Walker</a>, the residential development that continues to take shape within the Maroochydore City Centre.</p>

<p>The second release introduces 137 apartments to the market, adding to the growing community in what is set to become one of South East Queensland’s most significant urban renewal precincts. The new offering includes a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, alongside a limited number of terraces and penthouses designed to suit a range of lifestyle needs.</p>

<p>“SOL represents the beginning of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/maroochydore-qld-4558">Maroochydore</a>’s exciting next chapter, redefining expectations around life in this beautiful coastal city,” David Gallant, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/walker-corporation">Walker Corporation</a>, said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=147777 project_image_fid=319853]</p>

<p>Located on South Sea Islander Way, SOL forms part of the broader vision to deliver a connected and vibrant city heart for the Sunshine Coast. Construction is already underway on the first 19-storey tower, with completion targeted for early 2028. The development is being delivered by Walker in collaboration with Sunshine Coast Council and SunCentral.</p>

<p>SOL’s second stage continues the project’s focus on high-quality apartment living, with access to a suite of resident-only amenities including a rooftop sky terrace, wellness retreat, co-working lounge, gym and landscaped garden spaces.</p>

<p>Interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> combine timeless design with natural materials, generous layouts and panoramic outlooks to the ocean, hinterland and river.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“SOL by Walker establishes a new standard in apartment quality, seamlessly integrating superior craftsmanship with unmatched design,” Danny Juric, Director at Plus Studio, said</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=147777 project_image_fid=346899]</p>

<p>Apartments feature open-plan layouts with high ceilings and expansive glazing to enhance natural light and ventilation.&nbsp;</p>

<p>A warm, neutral palette ties together stone benchtops, brushed platinum accents, and sandstone-toned carpet, while large sliding doors connect living areas to generous outdoor spaces.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Kitchens are fitted with integrated Miele appliances, refined cabinetry and thoughtful storage, while bathrooms offer double vanities and oversized showers to balance function and comfort.</p>

<p>As part of the Sunshine Coast’s new CBD, residents will be within walking distance of local retail, dining and green space, with transport connections set to expand as the precinct grows. Once complete, Maroochydore City Centre is expected to deliver thousands of new homes as part of the region’s long-term housing strategy.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=147777]</p>


Second release at SOL by Walker expands residential offering in Maroochydore City Centre

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mirvac">Mirvac</a> has marked the topping out of Prince &amp; Parade in Brunswick, celebrating the completion of the building’s highest point and a major step forward for one of the developer’s landmark Melbourne communities.</p>

<p>The milestone forms part of Mirvac’s strong construction momentum across Victoria, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> and The Albertine both recently reaching structural completion. Together, the two projects will deliver 265 new apartments, contributing to much-needed housing supply in Melbourne’s inner suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4802 project_image_fid=3627]</p>

<p>Designed in collaboration with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a>, Prince &amp; Parade continues a long-standing partnership that has delivered The Melburnian (2002) and The Eastbourne (2019).</p>

<p>The new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/brunswick-vic-3056">Brunswick</a> address comprises a mix of one to four-bedroom residences complemented by extensive amenity, including a residents’ lounge, shared dining room and kitchen, library, yoga room, gym, and rooftop terrace, with landscaping by Jack Merlo and a concierge service.</p>

<p>Construction is rapidly transforming the site, with significant milestones achieved across two buildings, supported by 73 slab pours and six fully constructed building cores. Completion is expected in 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4802 project_image_fid=269383]</p>

<p>Mirvac’s General Manager, Residential Development Victoria, Elysa Anderson said Prince &amp; Parade has been strongly received by buyers seeking quality design and trusted delivery.</p>

<p>“These communities have been well received, attracting strong interest from downsizers and professionals who value high-quality design, premium locations and the confidence of buying with Mirvac,” Anderson said.</p>

<p>Prince &amp; Parade has also achieved a record-breaking apartment sale in Brunswick, underscoring its design quality and market appeal.</p>

<p>“We’re incredibly proud to see Prince &amp; Parade set a new benchmark for Brunswick. This <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/exclusive-mirvac-breaks-brunswick-record-with-prince-parade-sale">record-breaking sale</a> is a testament to Mirvac’s design excellence, quality craftsmanship, and our strong reputation for delivering high-quality residential communities across the country,” Anderson said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4802]</p>


Prince & Parade tops out in Brunswick as Mirvac marks dual Melbourne milestones

Property Correction

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<div id="post-body-2934597644349298689" class="post-body entry-content">
<div class="separator">Some years ago there were doomsday predictions of a property correction in Australia since dwelling prices had reached three times the value of our Gross Domestic Product (the exact relevance of the three times figure was never adequately explained).</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Today, the ratio is just over 3.6 times, having ticked down slightly over the past six months of publicly available official figures.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Is there a link between the two measures? Kind of, but it's not very strong.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">In fact, as a predictor of property prices the ratio has been useless in recent years. Actually, no, it's been worse than useless - it has been a contra-indicator!</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">One problem with GDP is that it's historic in nature, so at best it tells you what was happening in the economy months ago - thus as an indicator of future outcomes it's necessarily all that useful.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">More pertinently this ratio doesn't make a lot of logical sense since it compares a <strong>stock</strong> value at a fixed point in time with a <strong>flow</strong>, being the value of goods and services produced over a specified period of time (in the example in the chart below, one year).   </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/06/STOCK.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/06/STOCK.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Furthermore, some types of property in thinner markets fare much better in times of boom, and worse in times of bust. And some types of property in some inner suburban locations tend to outperform the averages over time, while properties is lower demand generally fail to keep pace with the averages.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Key national accounts aggregates</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">In today's electronically connected world, hordes have wanted to be the person to 'call' the next Australian recession. But the economy has proved to be surprisingly robust, with the annualised rate of GDP growth for the past six months accelerating to 3.6 per cent. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The riposte has been that GDP is the "wrong" measure - we should ignore GDP and look at national income. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">It is indeed true that real (i.e. adjusted for inflation) gross national income has stalled, but then again Australia's commodity prices could not and did not grow to the sky, so this isn't necessarily that surprising. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Another way to look at this is that national income has more than doubled over the past twenty years, even after accounting for inflation.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/06/GDP.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/06/GDP.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Moreover, if GDP is an unreliable measure of the performance of the economy, how can it be a good measure of dwelling prices? Can't have it both ways! </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">National accounts</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The national accounts provide us with a range of figures relating to the property markets, but as implied by the name of the data release the figures are national and backward-looking in nature, and therefore don't really tell us much of interest about what sub-regional property markets are up to or will be up to.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">As noted, the national accounts lag a bit, but broadly home owners owe about $1 trillion in mortgage debt, and investors about $550 billion. What is not so well shown by these figures is that mortgage buffers and offset accounts are also at record high levels. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/06/DEBT1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/06/DEBT1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>With dwelling price growth having outpaced the growth in household debt, gearing ratios have declined in recent years.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/06/DEBT2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/06/DEBT2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div class="separator">None of which tells of much of any predictive value. We can all think of housing markets in Australia that are overvalued; but equally we can all name others where prices are getting walloped or have already crashed. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">If there is one ratio from the national accounts which is useful in predicting where to next for dwelling prices - and I'm not saying that there necessarily is - it's the ratio of housing interest payable to income. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The actual quoted percentage figure is skewed lower since so many households have no mortgage debt at all, but has declined from a peak of 16.4 per cent in June 2008 to 9.7 per cent by December 2015. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">On this measure, mortgage repayments are more than 40 per cent cheaper than they were at their 2008 peak.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/06/INTEREST%20PAYABLE.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/06/INTEREST%20PAYABLE.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Rates heading lower?</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">It would be fair to say that if mortgage rates head back to where they were at their most recent peak of about 8 to 9 per cent, then many of Australia's housing markets are heading into correction territory. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">It's an interesting bet if you want to take it on. But money markets are begging to differ, with yields grinding out new lows in anticipation of possible Brexit turmoil. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Yesterday Australia's 10 year government bond yield fell to its lowest ever level at well below 2 per cent.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/06/RBA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/06/RBA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Meanwhile, OIS rates are on a seek and destroy mission to crunch out new record lows, and they are winning that particular battle. We are now just one benign inflation print from seeing a new record low cash rate in August.</div>
<br><a href="/images/2016/07/06/OIS.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="/images/2016/07/06/OIS.jpg" alt=""><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br><div>GDP is a useful measure of the strength or otherwise of the economy. And over the long term stronger economic growth may be reflected in higher dwelling prices - but not necessarily so, since there are so many other contributory factors, such as tax settings or the supply of new dwellings, for example. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's true that property prices can fall during recessions. But then again they can fall when GDP is positive such as they did in 2011 and early 2012.<br><br>And what about China, where real GDP growth has slowed from above 13 per cent in 2007 to just 6.7 per cent (if you can call 6.7 per cent slow), yet house prices in Shenzhen have skyrocketed by more than 50 per cent within the past year?<br><br>Obviously there are many other factors at play than purely economic growth.  And if there is a correlation between GDP and dwelling stock valuations, it's a tenuous one. </div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer"> 
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

The GDP myth and doomsday property predictions: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>The Australian states' mid-year reviews (MYRs) revealed that revenue pressures from the housing market correction will partly offset gains from the GST funding reform, according to Moody's Investors Service.</p>
<p>Moody's Investors Service noted that at the same time, they expect higher-than-budgeted capital spending to become a major challenge for states as most embark on record capital spending programs, causing debt to rise more rapidly than revenue.</p>
<p>They added that for some states, debt will start rising from a lower level than in earlier budget projections, overall debt burdens will remain elevated over the next four years, increasing vulnerability to risks such as unbudgeted health and education reform costs.</p>
<p><strong>Housing correction will partly erode revenue gains from GST reform:</strong></p>
<p>Additional Commonwealth GST top-up payments will be offset by a weaker housing market according to Moody's</p>
<p>However, a weaker housing market will offset these gains.</p>
<p>John Manning, Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service said, "following strong growth in transfer duty revenue in recent years, particularly driven by very strong house prices along the Australian east coast, the MYRs forecast a larger drop in property-related revenue than previously budgeted."</p>
<p>"Despite already projecting lower property-related revenue in their FY2019 budgets, the larger states of NSW and Victoria now forecast further declines in transfer duty and land tax revenue as a result of weakening residential property market prices and falling sales volumes."</p>
<p>He noted however, "revenue projections for both states increased overall."</p>
<p>"Both NSW and Victoria expect to receive additional Commonwealth grant revenue to offset lower transfer duty revenue."</p>
<p>"Higher payroll tax revenue, mineral royalties and an upward revision to GST also increased NSW’s revenue projections, while Victoria’s projections improved due to higher payroll taxes from stronger full-time employment and wage growth," he concluded.</p>
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

New South Wales and Victoria feeling the pressure from housing correction: Moody's

<html><body>
<p>Australia’s property market isn't going to crash, according to the Commonwealth Bank economist Gareth Aird.</p>
<p>Nor even a hard landing, but something not too dissimilar to the corrections of 2010 and 1989, he said.</p>
<p>But he has forecast that house prices in Sydney and Melbourne will continue declining until the end of next year.</p>
<p>“We (CBA) see the peak to trough being around 10% in Sydney and a little less in Melbourne (8.8%)," he told Business Insider.</p>
<p>Click <a href="https://edge.alluremedia.com.au/uploads/businessinsider/2018/09/CBA1.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge</p>
<div>
<img src="https://edge.alluremedia.com.au/uploads/businessinsider/2018/09/CBA1.jpg" alt="">Source: <small>Commonwealth Bank</small>
</div>
<p>Aird’s model is calculated as a function of the four variables listed below.</p>
<p>1. Annual changes in mortgage rates (1 year advanced);</p>
<p>2. The annual change in the flow of credit (six months advanced);</p>
<p>3. Auction clearance rates (four months advanced);</p>
<p>and 4. The house price expectations index from the Westpac/Melbourne Insitute consumer sentiment survey (2 months advanced).</p>
<p>He concedes that “predicting property prices can look foolish retrospectively”.</p>
<p>However, the chart below shows that the four leading indicators outlined above track actual movements in house prices “very well”.</p>
<div>
<img src="https://edge.alluremedia.com.au/uploads/businessinsider/2018/09/CBA2.jpg" alt="">Source: <small>Commonwealth Bank</small>
</div>
<p>“Clearly, we can’t forecast auction clearance rates or the household perception around the future path of dwelling prices.”</p>
<p>CBA’s base case is that Sydney home prices will decline by 5% annually in 2018 — a relatively mild assessment given the latest weekly data from CoreLogic Sydney house prices are currently 5.9% lower than this time last year.</p>
<p>That would take overall declines from Sydney’s July 2017 peak to around 7.5%.</p>
<p>“For Melbourne, prices would be down by around 5% from their November 2017 peak,” Aird said.</p>
<p>“Nationally, we think prices will end the year down by around 3% with a roughly similar outcome likely in 2019."</p>
<p>Aird noted the broader economy outside of housing is still performing well, along with the continued strength in Australia’s labour market.</p>
<p>He expects the unemployment rate will decline further which lowers the risk of mortgage defaults.</p>
<p>There’s Australian rate of population growth, he added.</p>
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CBA's Gareth Aird forecasts 10 percent decline in Sydney house prices into 2019

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<p>McGrath founder and real estate veteran John McGrath has said he was misquoted in a report that the Sydney market was 40% overvalued.</p>
<p>“The Sydney market is most of the way thought its sales cycle and very near the top of its cycle.</p>
<p>"My view is there is no bubble, and no chance of a 40% correction,” clarified McGrath. </p>
<p>He had been misquoted saying he thought the Sydney market was 40 per cent overvalued, comments first published by Mortgage Business website, repeated on the Smart Property Investment site and then picked up by Business Insider, prompting a denial by John McGrath.</p>
<p>At the same time - and in the same article - he'd advised he thought there might be a <span> “small correction while the market catches its breath.”</span></p>
<p>The real estate expert had been attending the mortgage broker AussieThink conference on Monday on the Gold Coast where he sat on a panel with Aussie John Symond and banker Ian Narev, hosted by 2GB's Ross Greenwood.</p>
<p>He noted that there are “two housing markets” in Australia, and according to him the one that incorporated the two major cities of Sydney and Melbourne was at the end of its cycle.</p>
<p>“There are two markets in Australia, the Sydney/Melbourne market being one and the rest of Australia, and that could be broken into regionals and other capitals. If you look at the last 10 years, we have seen Sydney/Melbourne [prices] have doubled and we’ve seen most of the other capital cities increase by 10–20 per cent, so it really is a big separation of the two markets,” McGrath was quoted as saying by the Mortgage Business.</p>
<p>The report quoted him as saying that the two cities were “at least 95 per cent through their current cycle”, adding that “it could be 100 per cent in Sydney”.</p>
<p>“I don’t see any material capital growth in the next few years and, equally confidently, I don’t see any material drop either. I’ve been through five cycles and each time the market does see significant growth over a two- to three-year period."</p>
<p>“Yes Sydney is overvalued compared to other areas of Australia, however it is a world class international city and a major financial centre. I’ve long said that South East Queensland is undervalued and shows great growth potential,” said McGrath in a media release clarifying his remarks. </p>
<p>He said the market had strong drivers including deep demand, population growth, overseas investment and low interest rates but there was a possibility of a small and short correction of a few percent, and “I believe that is healthy for the sustainability of the market”.</p>
<p>His firm's profit fell 42 percent for the year ended June 30 and the company announced a share buyback to support its sliding share price.</p>
<p>The Australian Financial Review's Street Talk column has written private equity firms are "circling" the company.</p>
<div>
<p>It advised Anchorage Capital, Adamantem Capital, Advent Partners and Crescent Capital Partners are among firms reputedly having run the numbers on McGrath.</p>
<p>Street Talk was not suggesting any approach has been made to the board, or that talks are under way ahead of a formal end to an escrow period - for about 46.3 per cent of total issued capital - on September 8. </p>
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<div>More than half of these shares are held by founder John McGrath, who retains the biggest shareholding with a 27 per cent stake.</div>
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<div>"Once the escrow period ends as much as 20 per cent of the register could change hands, should founding agents and others opt to sell," the AFR suggested.</div>
<div>
<p>McGrath is speculated as potentially proceeding with a privatisation of the the nation's third-largest real estate sale business.</p>
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