Toorak's dress circle St Georges Road, home to some of the city's priciest homes, is set for a rare new apartment development.

Blood Diamond Group, an entity tied to Tina Brandi, wife of David Brandi who has been a prolific bidder on The Block over the years, has filed plans for an ultra-exclusive development across an amalgamated 3,662 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/104-106-st-georges-road-toorak-vic-3142">104 and 106 St Georges Road</a>.

The proposal would replace two existing homes on the riverfront site with a five-level apartment building cascading down the steeply sloping land toward the Yarra River. Designed by Charles Wright Architects, the development has been carefully shaped around the site’s topography and river environs, with the upper levels stepping back to reduce visual bulk from both St Georges Road and the Yarra corridor.

Planning documents describe the proposal as “a site layout and building typology that is consistent with the emerging character of the area and which provides exceptional amenity for future residents without compromising that of neighbouring properties.”&nbsp;

<img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ea19a17e-7528-4fa8-b727-05f2f7c025e5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20a_0.png?VersionId=rZ2IjdoUL_UrRl1sZ4wZHnQXbYUaEmUQ" />

The scheme comprises 12 apartments, including 10 three-bedroom residences, one one-bedroom apartment, and a substantial split-level five-bedroom penthouse. A 624 sqm communal rooftop terrace will crown the building, while three undercroft levels embedded into the hillside will accommodate apartments and basement parking.

The design leverages the site’s dramatic northern outlook across the Yarra River, with living areas and balconies oriented toward the water. A central atrium running the full height of the building is intended to draw natural light deep into the residences and improve internal amenity.

Landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo Design &amp; Landscape</a> will play a major role in softening the built form, particularly along the river edge where significant setbacks have been introduced. The proposal includes a minimum 30-metre setback from the Yarra River boundary, preserving a substantial landscaped buffer between the development and the waterway.

While a mature English Oak near the front of the site is proposed for removal, the plans retain a large English Elm closer to the riverfront, alongside other established vegetation in the lower section of the property.

<img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ed3bf19b-5bc7-482f-bde7-41f709a13c3a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20b.png?VersionId=SG_kBGu4rOaSPY8FtVcmPJfSCrstuOfg" />

Architecturally, the building adopts strong horizontal forms with expansive glazing and curved balcony edges facing the river. Planning documents note the upper levels “adopt a receding form” to ensure the building responds appropriately to the Yarra River environs overlay controls.&nbsp;

The surrounding streetscape is characterised by large contemporary homes embedded into the hillside, many presenting as modest one or two-storey forms to the street before expanding toward the river frontage below. The planning report notes this established pattern heavily influenced the massing strategy for Toorak Pavilion.&nbsp;

Until the recent sale of the landmark Clendon Road mansion Coonac for around $130 million, St Georges Road held the state's most expensive home, the $80,000,088 derelict "Ghost House" mansion that was bought by crypto king Ed Craven.&nbsp;

Blair House, also on St Georges Road, sold for $74.5 million in 2022.

Joel Robinson

First look: Toorak Pavilions slated for dress circle St Georges Road

Six months after a development site on Kangaroo Point’s Shafston Avenue sold for $6.55 million, plans have been lodged for a 23-storey apartment tower.

A company named JMT Mega Capital, understood to be interstate investors when the 1,222 sqm double block traded late last year through Patona Property, is proposing an 84-apartment development in place of the existing low-rise buildings.

The slender tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/212-220-shafston-avenue-east-brisbane-qld-4169">212–220 Shafston Avenue</a>, overlooking the Brisbane River, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/aplus-design-group">Aplus Design Group</a>. It will comprise a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments above six basement levels, topped by rooftop resident amenities.

<img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7e17ba9e-553e-42ef-92b6-22081671521a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium_3.png?VersionId=hlVUf99vrOjUs.vhQs0qV0DhOncUy9T8" />

The development has been designed as a vertically articulated tower with recessed balconies, curved façades and planted edges intended to soften its scale within the evolving Shafston Avenue skyline. In the submitted Urban Design Report, Aplus Design Group said the tower had been “shaped with a slender vertical expression, articulated façades, recessed balcony zones, integrated planting and a clearly defined podium relationship, helping to reduce perceived bulk and create a more elegant contribution to the Shafston Avenue streetscape and broader Kangaroo Point skyline.”

The scheme comprises 84 apartments, including 25 one-bedroom units, 34 two-bedroom apartments and 25 three-bedroom residences. A total of 104 car spaces are proposed across six basement levels, including resident, visitor and accessible parking.

Residents will have access to rooftop communal open space and shared amenities, while the development also incorporates deep planting zones and subtropical landscaping throughout the podium and tower levels. The project includes 35 per cent communal space coverage across the site and a 17.5 per cent deep soil zone allocation to support urban greening outcomes.

The application exceeds the mapped building height under the Kangaroo Point Peninsula Neighbourhood Plan and is being assessed under Brisbane City Council’s impact assessment pathway. The design team argues the additional height is supported by the site’s strategic inner-city location, existing high-density zoning, and proximity to transport and employment hubs.

“The design has been developed to make better use of a well-serviced urban site within an established high-density residential setting, while improving the street presentation and overall quality of the public realm interface,” the report states.

<img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1ab44b1e-ff45-4bf3-8da8-8aa0cd79db33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_10.png?VersionId=tSxeGekZOqj1e9g3PEn_yFoC3taKDp3U" />

The proposal adds to a growing pipeline of apartment developments reshaping Kangaroo Point ahead of the 2032 Brisbane Olympic Games, with demand continuing to strengthen for new housing supply in well-connected inner-city precincts.

Mosaic has nearly sold out its under-construction <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-bedford-by-mosaic-16-30-prospect-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Bedford by Mosaic</a>&nbsp;and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-carter-by-mosaic-77-linton-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Carter</a>,&nbsp;while Pikos recently completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye Residences</a> nearby. Pikos is also delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gaia-kangaroo-point-108-lambert-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Gaia</a>, over 230 three- and four-bedroom apartments on Lambert Street.

First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point apartment tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct

A new 25-storey apartment tower proposed for Mercer Street would push Geelong’s western gateway skyline higher, with Morphy Birrell Property Group lodging plans for a project directly beside one of the city’s most significant heritage streetscapes.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">FK</a>-designed development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/65-67-mercer-street-geelong-vic-3220">65-67 Mercer Street</a> has now been referred to Victoria’s Planning Minister. The site sits opposite the Geelong rail corridor and immediately south of the heritage-listed St Peter and Paul’s Catholic Church and Ashby Hall precinct.

Rather than compete with the neighbouring ecclesiastical buildings, the proposal adopts a sculpted podium intended to reference the materiality and scale of the heritage context. Planning documents note the design draws cues from the “dark stone brick” church and surrounding masonry buildings, while the tower above transitions into a softer, curved form oriented toward Corio Bay and the Geelong waterfront.

<img alt="First look: Morphy Birrell Property Group targets 25-storey Geelong tower beside landmark church precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b797d10c-d4a6-47af-b8df-1aeaa3b382be" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/public%20square.png?VersionId=QGIpcz1x1hKB6lQLl2iobyHqb6PS2Ztc" />

The development forms “Stage 5” of Morphy Birrell Property Group’s broader Mercer Street precinct strategy, following the completion of the 21-storey Miramar tower on Cavendish Street and several additional approved redevelopment stages nearby. Planning consultants Ratio said the proposal “represents an exemplary development outcome” aligned with the strategic ambitions for Central Geelong’s continued urban renewal.

The mixed-use project would replace an existing low-rise commercial building and surface parking area on the 3,320 sqm corner site. FK’s urban context report describes the proposal as a residential development comprising apartments, resident amenities, commercial space, and integrated landscaping positioned to maximise bay views and northern sunlight access.

Renders show a deeply articulated tower with curved balconies stepping above a lower masonry podium that frames a landscaped forecourt facing Mercer Street. The design intentionally preserves sightlines toward the adjacent church buildings, with the podium scaled to reinforce the heritage edge before the tower recedes upward.

<img alt="First look: Morphy Birrell Property Group targets 25-storey Geelong tower beside landmark church precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2bdca91e-66f7-4ac7-8baa-2f93bd5b564e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/geelong%20site.png?VersionId=QOhbino4ZgzKYw5dW3QE14E.2yq.Sv87" />

The planning report highlights the site’s strategic location within 400 metres of key Geelong destinations including Cunningham Pier, the Geelong Station precinct, Deakin University, and the convention centre. Bus services run directly along Mercer Street, while the Corio Bay foreshore sits around 100 metres north of the site.

The proposal arrives amid accelerating redevelopment across central Geelong, where planning policy continues to encourage higher-density housing close to transport infrastructure and the waterfront. Mercer Street in particular has emerged as a focal point for taller apartment development due to its proximity to Geelong Station, the bay, and major civic infrastructure.

Morphy Birrell Property Group targets 25-storey Geelong tower beside landmark church precinct

Development giant&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hamton">Hamton</a> and joint venture partner Hostplus have revealed the next residential stage of their $3 billion Moonee Valley Park masterplan, lodging plans for 512 more apartments within the precinct on surplus racecourse land at 110 Wilson Street, Moonee Ponds.

The proposed development, dubbed&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/trackside-house-110-wilson-street-moonee-ponds-vic-3039">Trackside Gardens</a>&nbsp;in the planning application, follows the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/first-look-exclusive-hamton-and-hostplus-reveal-sixth-stage-of-moonee-valley-park-masterplan">recent unveiling of the sixth-stage Cox Place Precinct</a> and continues the long-running transformation of the Moonee Valley Racecourse into one of Melbourne’s largest urban renewal projects.

Positioned on the north-eastern edge of the racecourse adjacent to CityLink, Trackside Gardens will comprise three residential buildings rising between 61.8 metres and 86.4 metres within a heavily landscaped precinct shaped by Hamton’s Nature Based Cities framework.

The project forms part of the broader Moonee Valley Park redevelopment being delivered by Hamton, Hostplus and the Moonee Valley Racing Club, which is reshaping the 40-hectare racecourse site into a mixed-use neighbourhood with housing, retail, commercial space, hotels, parkland and community infrastructure.

Trackside Gardens sits separately to the recently proposed Cox Place Precinct, a five-building stage comprising around 1,100 residences, two build-to-rent buildings, two build-to-sell towers, retail, office space, and a hotel overlooking the racetrack. Together, the projects continue to accelerate housing delivery across the precinct.

<img alt="First look: Hamton expands Moonee Valley Park masterplan with 512-home Trackside Gardens precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5fc1941e-52d3-41c6-abc4-0f13fe8ae5ea" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/DA%20Edits%20%281%29.png?VersionId=7qwRHq5dcvXWNot2hNOgoQhN2GIWudNK" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/dko-architecture">DKO Architecture</a> with landscape architecture by Tract, Trackside Gardens has been conceived as a botanical-style residential precinct prioritising canopy planting, communal green space, and vertical landscaping.

“The architectural vision for the proposed development centres around buildings in a botanical park setting that champions the important role of nature,” the planning submission states.

“The proposal incorporates principles of biophilic design, with landscape and environmentally sustainable development influencing the ultimate design response of the buildings and prioritising the ground plane to ensure a high amenity for both occupants and visitors.”&nbsp;

Trackside Gardens will deliver 512 apartments across the three buildings, alongside 518 basement car spaces and 523 bicycle spaces. Around 20 per cent affordable housing is proposed across the broader North East Precinct, equating to around 158 dwellings.&nbsp;

The affordable housing component will be concentrated within the Wilson East building, while the remaining apartments are expected to be delivered as build-to-sell residences.

Trackside Gardens has been designed around Hamton’s Nature Based Cities initiative, founded by Executive Chair Paul Hameister OAM in partnership with the University of Melbourne, Urbis, Ark Resources and Tract. The initiative promotes integrating higher-density urban development with significant biodiversity, tree canopy and landscape outcomes.

<img alt="First look: Hamton expands Moonee Valley Park masterplan with 512-home Trackside Gardens precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="89353449-7b3c-42fd-8fd8-8bf64a5ef80f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_4.png?VersionId=X8jRt0P2L7fIWjLhfX6gPknXToXIBeLj" />

A comprehensive landscape strategy would introduce deep soil planting, vertical greening, communal gardens, and new pedestrian links throughout the site.

Planning documents state the development is targeting a 5 Star Green Star Buildings rating, a 7.5-star average NatHERS rating, and “Exemplary” Nature Based Cities certification.&nbsp;

The proposal joins an expanding pipeline of approved and proposed buildings within Moonee Valley Park, including the recently launched Eveline apartments and the approved Grandstand North and South towers.

Hamton has increasingly focused on precinct-scale, nature-led communities across Melbourne’s middle-ring suburbs, with projects spanning Hawthorn, Kew, and Moonee Ponds.

Hampton unveils Trackside Gardens, latest stage of $3 billion Moonee Valley Park masterplan

The Paul Gedoun-led <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ss-projects">S&amp;S Group</a> has achieved another milestone in its $1 billion transformation of Rainbow Bay on the southern Gold Coast with the completion of the company’s third project in four years, the $160 million <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a> residences.

Delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/hutchinson-builders">Hutchinson Builders</a> and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker Architects</a>, Esprit buyers have now moved into the 94 apartments across two interconnected buildings at 217-227 Boundary Street.

The successful settlement of Esprit marks another astounding chapter in the S&amp;S story, which launched its highly successful Flow apartments three years ago and created its own ultra-luxury branded fingerprint on an area craving new luxury residences.

Most early purchasers have secured gains of well over $1 million since the project launched in 2021.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102921 project_image_fid=172129]

S&amp;S Projects Founding Director Paul Gedoun said the completion of Esprit reflects sustained demand for premium apartments in tightly held coastal locations.&nbsp; 
&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; 
“Esprit has attracted buyers seeking a combination of quality design, considered amenity and a location that is becoming increasingly difficult to replicate,” said Gedoun.

“We identified some years ago that Rainbow Bay is a unique market where supply of luxury residences is limited, and we see the settlements in Esprit further underpinning this thinking - that for both owner-occupiers and investors.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102921 project_image_fid=172174]

A key feature of the development is ‘Club Esprit’, a 1,000sqm residents-only rooftop level combining wellness and recreation, believed to be a first for the Gold Coast, and which is fast becoming a signature of the S&amp;S brand.

Positioned to capture views across Snapper Rocks, Rainbow Bay and the Tweed River, the rooftop includes a 25-metre lap pool, gym, yoga lawn, sauna and steam facilities, ice bath, private dining spaces, outdoor cinema and landscaped areas for residents.&nbsp;

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a> Director Jayde Pezet, who led the sales campaign for Esprit and S&amp;S’s Flow and Awaken apartments, said the project’s performance reflects both the strength of the product and the depth of demand for premium apartments on the southern Gold Coast.&nbsp;

“In some cases, we’ve seen values double since launch, which is a clear reflection of how tightly held Rainbow Bay has become and the level of demand for well-executed projects in this market,” said Pezet.&nbsp;

“Buyers recognised early what S&amp;S Projects was delivering here, and that conviction has been rewarded as the project has progressed towards completion.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102921 project_image_fid=214819]

Esprit offers a mix of two- three and four-bedroom apartments and sits within walking distance of the beachfront, cafés and local amenities, reinforcing its appeal as both a lifestyle and investment destination.

The project is the third completed by S&amp;S Projects in Rainbow Bay, following Flow Residences and Awaken Residences, which together have contributed to the suburb’s emergence as one of the Gold Coast’s most sought-after coastal pockets. &nbsp;

S&amp;S Projects is continuing its investment in the area with Radia, a $215 million development currently under construction.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102921 project_image_fid=172175]

Gedoun said the completion of Esprit signals continued confidence in the southern Gold Coast market.&nbsp;

“We’ve seen strong interest in well-located, high-quality apartments, particularly in areas where future development opportunities are limited."

“That’s been a key factor in the performance of Esprit and the broader Rainbow Bay market”.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102921]

Owners move in as Esprit completes at Rainbow Bay

Property Bubble

&nbsp;Australia&rsquo;s housing market is experiencing a peak growth rate, but experts say the current boom won&rsquo;t last forever.&nbsp;

In this month&rsquo;s Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey&trade;, 40 experts and economists weighed in on future cash rate moves and other issues relating to the state of the economy.&nbsp;

While all experts surveyed predict the cash rate to hold, nearly half of those who weighed in on property prices (47%, 16/34) believe Australia&rsquo;s current house price growth is unsustainable.

Property market growth surged at its fastest rate in 33 years in March, with national dwelling values also increasing by 6.2% over the past year according to CoreLogic.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6690 project_image_fid=27326]

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said that some experts are concerned a housing bubble is emerging.

&ldquo;Rock-bottom rates, government stimulus and a fear of missing out have really lit a fire under the belly of the market.&quot;

&ldquo;Listing numbers are unable to meet high buyer demand, keeping inventory levels low overall and adding to the sense of urgency among buyers. &quot;

&ldquo;We&rsquo;ve seen more borrowed for housing over the last six months than during any similar period in history &ndash; and economists have tipped us to borrow more over the next six.&quot;

&ldquo;It&rsquo;s unlikely we&#39;ll see any regulatory intervention from policymakers yet, but this might be a possibility down the track,&rdquo; Cooke said.&nbsp;

According to Mala Raghavan of the University of Tasmania, buyers may put themselves at risk by acting too hastily.&nbsp;

&ldquo;The recent uptick in buying behaviour largely appears to be due to the fear of missing out, and many buyers are rushing into the market without clear foresight of the impending risks.&quot;

&ldquo;When mortgage rates start rising, many households will risk being unable to service their loans, and could be vulnerable to foreclosures,&rdquo; she said.&nbsp;

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said that some experts are concerned a housing bubble is emerging

jordan_55689

1 in 2 experts say recent house price growth is “unsustainable”: Finder

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Generalisations about property markets are a major source of misleading information for investors.
The worst examples usually emanate from economists who speak about “the Australian property market” as a single homogenous entity. 
A statement such as “Australian house prices rose 7 percent last year” implies there was 7 percent growth across the nation, when it reality there were a few locations with double-digit growth, some with minor movement, many where prices hardly moved at all and others where prices went backwards, in some cases a lot.
We’ve had three years of empty rhetoric about property prices “soaring” and bubbles emerging, all based on a long-overdue revival of the Sydney market and action in some parts of Melbourne.
Even speaking about what happened or will happen to prices in a single major city is too much generalization to be of any use to buyers and sellers.
The entity described as “the Sydney property market” is a place with over 700 suburbs, with markets ranging from $370,000 units in Liverpool to $900,000 houses in Rouse Hill to top-end locations like Mosman where the median house price is $3 million.
Distilling all of that and more into a statement such as “Sydney property prices rose 3.6 percent in May” is the hallmark of lazy, incompetent analysts whose primary interest is publicity rather than being useful to consumers.
A study of the latest Market Monitor from the Real Estate Institute of Queensland provides plenty of evidence that generalised single-figure numbers to describe a large city are both pointless and misleading.
The report finds that the median house price in the Brisbane City LGA rose 6.1 percent in the past year. That’s the figure that 99% of media would report, indicating that Brisbane has a solid market but one that isn’t booming the way Sydney did until recently.
But Market Monitor delves deeper and provides figures for individual suburbs, revealing there are plenty of places which did a lot better than the generalised figure and a few where median prices were in reverse.
Middle ring areas in the Brisbane Southside precinct did well in the past year, including Coorparoo (up 11 percent), Holland Park West (up 12 percent), Macgregor (up 17 percent), Sunnybank Hills (up 12 percent), Eight Mile Plains (up 10 percent), Mansfield (up 11 percent), Wishart (up 15 percent) and Robertson (up almost 20 percent).
Similar areas on Brisbane City’s Northside have also out-performed, including Banyo (up 17 percent), Grange (up 16 percent), Hendra (up 13 percent), Wooloowin (up 16 percent), Sandgate (up 17%) and Mitchelton (up 11 percent).
In contrast, there is evidence of falling values in upmarket areas like Hamilton, Ascot, St Lucia, Teneriffe and Hawthorne, all suburbs with median house prices above $1 million. But the median price for New Farm (median house price $1.5 million) is up 15 percent.
The report also shows the impact of over-building of inner-city apartments, with the median unit price down 1.4 percent in the CBD, down 4.5 percent in Fortitude Valley and down 1.7 percent in West End. Median weekly rents have fallen in the past year in several of the inner-city unit markets, according to the REIQ data.
Heading south to the Logan City part of Greater Brisbane, the generalised figure indicates the median house price has risen only 4 percent in 12 months. But suburbs with annual growth above 8 percent include Browns Plains, Heritage Park, Loganlea, Waterford and Waterford West. Logan Central, Forestdale and Woodridge all had annual growth in the 13-15% range.
Logan City’s opposite number in Brisbane’s far north is the Moreton Bay Region, which has emerged recently as the No.1 rising market in the metropolitan area. Most suburbs in this LGA have median house prices in the $300,000s and $400,000s – and affordability is a major driver here. 
The generalised figure says house prices have risen 5% in 12 months, but many suburbs have done better, including Albany Creek, Banksia Beach, Bongaree, Burpengary East, Caboolture, Clontarf, Ferny Hills, Narangba, Toorbul, Warner and Woody Point - all of which recorded annual growth between 8 percent and 12 percent. Upmarket Newport on the Redcliffe Peninsula also grew 12 percent.
On the Gold Coast, house prices rose 5.8 percent on average, but there are 20 residential suburbs with growth between 10 percent and 20 percent.
By contrast, the apartment market is under-performing, with the median unit price in Surfers Paradise largely unchanged, while the medians for Broadbeach, Labrador and Mermaid Beach all dropped 5 percent in the past 12 months.
Surfers Paradise, Broadbeach and Mermaid Beach all have median unit prices considerably lower than five years ago, while Labrador and Southport are unchanged.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Three years of empty rhetoric about property prices “soaring": Terry Ryder

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Harry Dent, one of the world’s most controversial economic futurists, will be touring Australia again in February.
He will be in Australia from February 24 to March 2 to discuss his latest research findings on the future of the economy.
His pitch will be how to build and protect your wealth during uncertain times which he describes as the greatest social, economic, and political upheaval since the American Revolution.
“I’m convinced that the combination of cheap money, inflated debt, declining demographics and politics will ultimately lead to a (stock) market crash worse than any we’ve ever seen.
"But that doesn’t mean you can’t still make some money in stocks right now. You see, the same forces that will ultimately lead to the next (stock) market crash are also the same forces that continue to drive this bull market “ says Harry.
He suggests Australia is a relative "safe haven."
But he will presumably offer his advice on exiting Australian property markets to a potentially understandably sceptical audience.
Last time he toured in 2014 Harry Dent's worst case scenario was for a post-China bubble burst impacting on Sydney with property prices possibly set to collapse by as much as 60 percent or so.
His controversial forecasts were labelled as "scaremongering" by commentator Chris Joye.
As he did on Harry Dent's earlier 2011 crash forecast, the founder of listed wealth manager Yellow Brick Road Mark Bouris also countered the claims. 
Bouris always maintained that Australia was well-positioned to navigate international turbulence.
In 2011 remarks on David Koch’s Sunrise program, Dent begged viewers to sell their homes before the 50 percent crash in prices arrived at their doorsteps.
Dent’s claim was that Australian dwelling values were “9.5 times family incomes”, and should, in his view, be about “half” that level.
Dwelling prices in Sydney now have an $895,000 median, up from $610,000 in early 2014, according to CoreLogic, who have noted a 2 percent fall over the past quarter.
It represents a 46 percent rise since Dent's 2014 warning. Sydney's median dwelling price was around $500,000 in 2011.
Blogger Pete Wargent noted in 2014 Dent's "track record has been wildly inaccurate."
<a href="https://harrydentlive.com" target="_blank">Next month</a> Harry Dent starts in Perth on Saturday 24th February, then Melbourne Monday 26th February, Sydney Tuesday 27thFebruary, Brisbane Wednesday 28th February and even Newcastle on Friday 2ndMarch. 
All attendees get copy of Dent’s new best seller Zero Hour.
The early bird pricing is $47.
Ofcourse Dent's most noted tip was that Japan, then on top of the economic world, would suffer a slowdown lasting more than a decade.
It is still pretty much in a coma, he notes, some two decades after the 1991 peak.
Last time he toured he told his audience: "You can't keep bubbles from bursting for ever."
Dent made headlines when he remarked that the Australian property market was like popcorn popping - different markets bursting at different times, noting the high risk of the expansionary China collapse in hurting Australian property prices.
"There is no way there will be a soft landing in China." he suggests even if the government seeks it. 
"China's blow will really hit Australia," he said.
Asked on his hit and miss success rate, Dent was forthright.
"I am likely to get 30 or 40% of forecasts wrong in the timing," he said.
His US critics point to his 2005 forecast that the Dow would hit 40,000 by the end of the decade. His local critics point to his 2011 call that property in Australia was set to crash.
Saying it often can be just one piece of information that can provide the clue, his late 1980s Japanese forecast was based on his premise that people slow in spending way ahead of retirement, from 46 years onwards.
Asked how much understanding the pysche of the population of a city or country was helpful in understanding market movement, and he agreed.
"You are right, yes markets do go up and down together, but to different degrees.
"But the bubble will be here and there, say Melbourne and Brisbane."
Harry is the founder and senior editor at Dent Research, where he seeks to identify and study demographic, technological, consumer spending and geopolitical trends to forecast economic booms and busts well ahead of the mainstream.
His latest publicity blurb put out by Max Markson seeks to address his many critics.
"Mainstream media pundits are calling me crazy, an idiot, and a quack.
"But that’s nothing new…
"After all, I’ve been making predictions that people are sceptical of for decades… but one after another keeps coming true anyway!"
{mijopolls 149}  
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

With a 46 percent property price rise, will anyone believe futurist Harry Dent on his Australian tour next month 

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The changing market conditions and the growing speculation about the end of the property boom is just that, speculation.
The market is not about to crash, but a slowdown may have begun, according to property expert John McGrath.
“This sort of chatter happens at the end of every boom. I have seen it time and time again over 30 years and the ‘doom and gloom’ predictions simply haven’t eventuated,” said McGrath in his recent Switzer column.
Booms don’t end in a crash, they take a gradual course, and this might be the start of a slowdown in Sydney and Melbourne, says McGrath. 
“Or we might not be – no one knows.”
But there’s a few small signs that the market is slowing and that’s the headlines and predictions of price falls. The key is not to panic, he advises.
“I’d actually encourage you to welcome a slowdown in growth. After a long period of price rises – about 75 percent in Sydney alone, we need a period of consolidation that will put a floor under these new price levels and provide stable ground for home values to rise strongly again in the next boom. 
“Of course, no home owner likes to see prices go down. But it’s important to remember that if we do see some price reductions, they’ll be small and short term.”
He dwells on the fact that good quality properties double in value every decade but growth is never in a straight line. More often than not, we have a few years of strong growth, a few years of little growth and round in circles we go.
“I’d advise you to ignore all suggestions of a market crash. It’s not going to happen. Yes, we’ve had phenomenal growth over the past five years. That doesn’t mean we’re due to have phenomenal declines.”
Property is now analysed, or should I say over-analysed, as closely as the stock market but property is not an asset class that changes overnight. 
“We have too much population growth fuelling demand and too much of an undersupply to experience a crash.
“Overseas commentators, in particular, do not understand this. They also don’t appreciate how ingrained it is in our culture to pursue property ownership. 
“We have entirely different dynamics to overseas markets that will continue to keep our property values strong well into the future.”
Sydney and Melbourne
To the question on whether the Sydney and Melbourne markets are turning, he says  no one can identify the exact time of a turn – it will only become clear several months after it has happened because once again, the property market changes at a very slow pace.
The supply of established housing stock available for sale in Sydney and Melbourne is at its highest level for this time of year since 2012, CoreLogic figures show. 
Does this indicate slowing demand? Yes. Is it a sign that the market is actually slowing or just a blip? We don’t know yet, he says.
Saturday auction clearance rates remain very high. About 60% represents a normal market. About 80% represents a boom. For the past couple of months, Sydney has been in the 70 percent - 75 percent range. Does this indicate a slight drop in demand? Yes. Is demand still strong? Absolutely.
Again, when the property market slows down after a boom, it does so very, very gradually. In my opinion, I do think the Sydney and Melbourne markets are at, or near, their peak for this growth cycle. What’s going to happen next? The two most likely eventualities are as follows:
1. The pace of growth in property prices will slow down but not stop. Property prices will keep growing but at a lesser rate per year.
2. We have a minor correction, where the market will do as it has done before and give back about half of the prior year’s growth, so that would be around 5%.
 “Neither scenario is cause for panic. If the boom is indeed over, then here’s my advice to people in the market.
<ul>
<li>If you are a recent buyer, don’t panic. Yes, you’ve purchased at what is probably the peak of the cycle but if you plan to hold long term (which is what you should always do) then it won’t matter if we experience a small correction. You’ve purchased a sound investment during a time of record low interest rates. Think about what your property will be worth in 10 years’ time – probably double! </li>
<li>If you are in the market to buy, don’t put it off because you think prices will plunge – it never happens that way. Take a sensible measured approach, set a budget and buy the right property for you.</li>
<li>If you are thinking of selling, now’s the time. It feels to me like we’re at, or close, to the peak of this cycle, so if you want to fully capitalise on this boom, now is the time to sell.</li>
</ul>
 “Property is a fantastic vehicle for wealth creation if you can hold it long term,” he says, concluding that it means riding out market slowdowns without panicking and staying focused on the goal of debt-free ownership down the road.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

The property boom will end slowly, with no cause for panic: John McGrath

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/76505/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
There’s been quite a bit of speculation over whether Australia has a property market bubble - where house prices are over-inflated compared to a benchmark - and when it might burst.
According to housing experts, there’s at least four scenarios where this could happen.
Australia could see a property bubble burst due to:
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li2">Lending tightening, interest rate hikes and mortgage stress</li>
<li class="li2">Underemployment and unemployment creating a slow deflation</li>
<li class="li2">Government intervention failure and market repair</li>
<li class="li2">Global crisis</li>
</ul>
These four scenarios focus on different tension points in Australia’s and the global economy. One scenario focuses on the balance of actions between regulators like APRA and the Reserve Bank, combined with household mortgage stress. Another envisions the affect that unemployment might have in certain areas.
Some of the factors we may see play out, such as the federal and state government trying to intervene to “fix” problems in the market, as happens in one scenario. But other factors may be out of the government’s control, for example, where a global crisis pushes up risk premiums.
All of these scenarios highlight just how complicated and interrelated the steps that lead to a property bubble burst could be.
Lending tightening, interest rate hikes and mortgage stress
Associate Professor Harry Scheule, UTS Business School
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-25594-sr2cd9.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-25594-sr2cd9.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Following concerns of the housing bubble, bank regulator APRA increases bank lending standards, it also increases the risk weight on Australian mortgages resulting in lower loan supply and higher loan costs. Banks are encouraged to reduce interest-only loans, hold a greater amount of costly capital (making home loans more expensive) and reduce the loan amounts offered to applicants due to higher future interest scenarios.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12655-nn7let.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Following increases in interest rates in the US and Europe, as those markets recover, the Australian dollar begins to decline – forcing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to increase interest rates.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12640-1lrrxft.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a>
Higher interest rates lead to higher monthly repayments, as most of Australia’s home loans are adjustable. Interest only loans are the most exposed. Higher interest rates also lead to more mortgage delinquencies.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170428-15097-i6a8cl.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a>
The banks tighten bank lending standards in response to the increase in delinquencies. This further constrains interest-only borrowers seeking to refinance after the end of the interest-only terms. This means more mortgage stress, as many had expected to roll over the interest-only period indefinitely, but now they are forced to make principal repayments next to interest payments.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12627-djg6hq.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
The cycle between delinquencies and tightening bank lending standards continues and as a result there’s a noticeable drop in loan supply and a fall in house prices. 
Underemployment and unemployment create a slow deflation
Danika Wright, Lecturer in Finance, University of Sydney
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12658-14s147l.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Unemployment and underemployment - workers who want to work more but can’t - increase. As the apartment development boom dies down, and without a mining boom to replace it, construction industry workers are at high risk.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12629-1g17gp1.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Households with a lot of mortgage debt are forced to limit their spending, particularly on discretionary items. This in turn affects companies that employ retail workers, reducing hours and employment.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12645-1thbkt5.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Employment opportunities are a major component of house price amenity, in part because demand for housing is pushed higher by inbound work-related migration. So, as there are less jobs nearby, the amenity value of some areas decreases.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170428-15121-1a3mn50.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
The amount of people at risk of defaulting on their mortgage increases in areas where there is a loss of employment or reduced income. In 2008, arguably the last time Sydney house prices went through a correction, the incidence of mortgage defaults and property price declines was geographically localised.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170428-15086-1qrzafm.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Borrowers who have the least amount of equity in their homes (typically the least wealthy, younger and newer entrants to housing market) are the hardest hit by falling property values. They are more likely to end up “underwater” – that is, owing more than the property is now worth – and face the prospect of a distressed sale. This in turn contributes to the downward spiral in house prices.
Australia has tighter lending criteria than regulators enforced before the global financial crisis in the United States. But concerns by regulators, including APRA, over current lending practices and potentially fraudulent activities raise questions over the real quality of mortgages and the ability of borrowers to repay them.
Government intervention failure and market repair
Professors of Economics, Jason Potts and Sinclair Davidson, RMIT
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-22270-1wxliec.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
A combination of low interest rates and low growth in new housing stock drive up Australian housing prices, a situation compounded by poor policy choices by state and federal governments and high demand from foreign residential property investors.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12658-1w2f933.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
As a result housing is misallocated in the Australian market, across demographic and especially age groups. This produces demographic pressures, as millennials delay leaving home, delay starting families. This leads to political pressure on governments – increases the urge to intervene.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12669-19vk1qg.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
The federal government intervenes, blaming the secondary drivers (particularly the non-voting group: foreign investors). They increase restrictions on foreign investment in residential housing stock.
The federal government also lobbies APRA to increase rules on financial products, while promoting a scheme to subsidise and promote first home ownership.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-23807-i1c8wi.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Because none of these previous measures from the federal government affect the primary drivers of the misallocation of housing, domestic interest rates don’t change, and state governments do not act to release new stock. As a result housing prices continue to grow.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-27254-4qwo2z.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Increasingly alarmed that house prices continue to rise, the federal government starts to panic, threatening ever further regulation and starts to blame the financial system. This triggers the RBA to finally act, raising interest rates.
As interest rates rise, this causes mortgage stress, resulting in default among investors with high amounts of debt, pushing these properties onto the market. These distressed sales finally cause prices to fall.
Global crisis
Timo Henckel, Research Associate, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12629-1juog2j.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
International crisis (whether it be political, military, economic) leads to an increase in global risk premiums.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12645-qj07.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Borrowing costs for Australian banks rise because of this and supply of global capital falls, pushing up mortgage rates in Australia.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12658-z8xdgo.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
The most vulnerable mortgagees can no longer afford their mortgages and are forced to sell their homes.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12658-1fhdu2b.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
House prices fall which, coupled with rising interest rates, adds further distress to households’ balance sheets, leading to more selling of houses and so on.
Jenni Henderson is editor, Business and Economy, The Conversation and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/team#jenni-henderson" target="_blank">here</a>.
Wes Mountain is<a href="https://theconversation.com/au/team#wes-mountain"> </a>deputy multimedia editor, The Conversation and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/team#jenni-henderson" target="_blank">here.</a>
 
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Four ways an Australian housing bubble could burst

<html><body><div class="entry-content">
<div class="pf-content">
Melbourne has no bubble and its apartment market was not even close to reaching an oversupply, according to Charter Keck Cramer research director, Robert Papaleo.
He says there has been misinformation surrounding the issue.
“The structural tailwinds supporting Melbourne apartment market outweigh the cyclical headwinds,” Papaleo told attendees at the recent Australian Property Institute and REIV’s State of the Market 2017 State of Market conference.
“There is no apartment supply bubble and oversupply is not imminent.
"Melbourne is experiencing unprecedented supply but it not oversupplied,”
Papaleo said Melbourne’s housing market is performing strongly because it is at a 30% discount to Sydney, compared to 15% cheaper in 2011.
“This will drive more migration to Melbourne," said Papaleo who added that Melbourne remains attractive to international students.
He said that one year ago, 24,000 apartments were expected to be completed in 2017 across metropolitan Melbourne, but the latest figures suggest 16,000 apartments are now expected to completed.
“We are heading towards a situation where 16,000 apartments a year will be completed over the new few years to 2020."
It comes off the supply peak of 19,000 apartments in 2016, he said.
“Oversupply is not evident in the market.
"Two years ago, in 2015, 9,000 apartments were sold across Melbourne’s Central City Region.
"In 2016, 6,000 apartments were sold; despite the fall it was still a good result.
"And developers are holding back supply,” he said.
“Obviously, if interest rates move, there will be an impact on that price growth.
"What we are seeing at the moment, though, is the Melbourne housing market is truly reflecting its attractiveness to local investors, local owner occupiers, as well as, in particular segments – such as the apartment sector as well as the greenfield market – international investors as well as interstate investors continue to see relative value in Melbourne prices compared to the places that capital is coming from, whether that be Sydney, or whether that be Singapore,” he said, as reported by Australian Property Journal.
 
</div>
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At 30 percent cheaper than Sydney, Melbourne has apartment advantage without oversupply or bubble: Charter Keck

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Chinese billionaire Wang Jianlin has issued a warning on the Chinese property market.
It's the "biggest bubble in history," he told CNNMoney.
<div id="ie_column">The problem, according to Wang, is that prices keep rising in major Chinese metropolises like Shanghai but are falling in thousands of smaller cities where huge numbers of properties lie empty.</div>
"I don't see a good solution to this problem," he said.
"The government has come up with all sorts of measures -- limiting purchase or credit -- but none have worked."
"The problem is the economy hasn't bottomed out," Wang said.
"If we remove leverage too fast, the economy may suffer further. So we'll have to wait until the economy is back on the track of rebounding -- that's when we gradually reduce leverage and debts."
He says he's not worried about the prospect of a "hard landing".
Wang has been warning of trouble in the Chinese property market for a while with his Dalian Wanda Group, which has developed huge malls and office complexes across China, has been gradually cutting back on its real estate business.
His business has key property assets overlooking Sydney Harbour at Circular Quay and on the Queensland Gold Coast.
Wang is the richest man in China, according to Forbes and Hurun Report data from 2015.
<a href="https://money.cnn.com/2016/09/28/investing/china-wang-jianlin-real-estate-bubble/" target="_blank">Click here to see his full video interview.</a>
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Chinese billionaire Wang Jianlin issues biggest housing bubble warning

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There was definitely no risk of a national housing bubble, Alan Kohler, the Australian columnist and publisher of The Constant Investor, has suggested in his latest column.
Is there one in Sydney?
"Perhaps," he wrote in The Australian.
"Sydney just happens to be where people want to live and invest and, at the moment, there’s a lack of supply. 
"Maybe there’ll be a crash if supply catches up and interest rates rise.
"Big ifs," he suggested.
He noted the surge in Sydney’s auction clearance rate over the weekend to 86.4 per cent should lay to rest the myth that the housing market has stopped responding to lower interest rates and, secondly, that government decentralisation policies are worthwhile.
The weekend's preliminary clearance rate in Sydney was 10 percentage points higher than a year ago, and also 10 percentage points higher than the next highest result the 76 percent in Melbourne.
 
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Alan Kohler says perhaps there's a Sydney housing bubble

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Harry Dent, the boldly bearish US economist, is in Sydney this Thursday some two years after last peddling his contrarian forecasts.
His insights alway capture the headlines.
His last seminars advising that Australia’s ‘property bubble’ would burst with a 50 percent price decline actually mimiced his prior forecast from 2011.
The doomsday US commentator sees the world - and most of Australia's multi-dimensional property market - through the prism of his 2011 book, The Great Crash Ahead. There is now a new book to sell.
His 2011 remarks on David Koch’s Sunrise program, saw Dent implore major capital city viewers to sell their homes before the 50% crash in prices arrived on our doorsteps.
Dent’s argument appeared based mostly on the claim that Australian dwelling values were 9.5 times family incomes, and ought in his view, be about half this level. 
Not long after a chart released by the RBA showed the Australian house price-to-income ratio was actually around four or five times, ie half Dent’s claims.
Dent refined the 2011 outlook with his colourful analogy that the Australian property market would be like popcorn popping - different markets would be bursting at different times.
Last time Dent was here I asked him on his hit and miss success rate.
"I am likely to get 30 or 40% of forecasts wrong in the timing," he advised.
Dent says he studies bubbles.
"When everyone is in a bubble, most can't see it, when the markets are at their lows, they can't see the recovery...and that's when there is money to be made," he said.
Harry is the founder and senior editor at Dent Research, where he seeks to identify and study demographic, technological, consumer spending and geopolitical trends to forecast economic booms and busts well ahead of the mainstream.
The forecast he his most proud of was when Dent tipped that Japan, then on top of the economic world, would suffer a slowdown lasting more than a decade.
Japan is still pretty much in a coma, he says after its 1991 peak when most economists envisaged Japan overtaking the US in world economic dominance.
Saying it often can be just one piece of information that provides the clue, his late 1980s Japanese forecast was based on his premise that people slow in spending way ahead of retirement, from 46 years onwards.
I asked how much understanding the pysche of the population of a city or country was helpful in understanding property market movement, and he agreed with the concept.
"You are right, yes markets do go up and down together, but to different degrees."
As with many economist naysayers, Dent may get Sydney right sooner or later, but it is best to take the forecasts with a certain level of cynicism or else cop the cost of lost opportunity.
Afterall Sydney's house price median was at $560,000 and Sydney’s unit median at $458,500 around the time of his 2011 forecast.
By 2014 it was $765,000 for Sydney houses and $550,500 for units.
It now sits at $890,000 for houses and $680,000 for units, according to CoreLogic.
It's not to say Sydney won't be spooked sometime, but for most of us it will be a question of holding one's nerve in the face of the herd mentality.
That's more her-like panic likely to come from investors, rather than home owners.
<div> </div>
<div>This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph.</div>
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