Gold Coast property professionals Jared Johnson and Zac Potter have teamed up to launch their debut property development, Basalt Lane, a boutique collection of architecturally designed warehouse units set to rise in Tweed Heads South.

Potter, a proven developer in his own right, is the founder of 21 Property Group and son of respected developer John Potter, while Johnson, director of leading commercial real estate agency Coastal Commercial, has been involved in hundreds of high-profile industrial transactions across South-East Queensland and Northern NSW.&nbsp;

Located at 80–82 Industry Drive, Basalt Lane will feature just eight premium warehouse units with flexible low-impact zoning, rare dual street access, and sleek, contemporary finishes not often seen in the Industrial sector. Construction is scheduled to commence in Q4 2025.

“This joint venture made sense from day one,” says Johnson, who is spearheading the sales campaign.

“Zac brings proven development experience, and I have a strong grasp of the local industrial market through years of commercial sales in the area. By combining our strengths, we saw an opportunity not just for ourselves — but to deliver something the local community genuinely needs. There’s a clear demand for modern, flexible, and flood-free industrial spaces in this region, and Basalt Lane is our answer to that.”

Strategically positioned just 700 metres from the M1 Motorway and under 10 minutes from Gold Coast Airport, the project offers high appeal for investors, small business owners looking for a coastal work base with premium connectivity or a secure storage solution.

The launch of Basalt Lane comes amid a surge in industrial development across the Tweed region. According to Tweed Shire Council, the area is undergoing major transformation, including the Industry Central Land Swap, a government-backed initiative relocating flood-affected businesses to higher ground. The $11.3 million program is creating modern, job-generating industrial hubs built for long-term resilience.

Projects like Quarry Business Park, also marketed through Johnson’s Coastal Commercial — are also breaking ground in 2025 — highlight the growing demand for flood-free, future-proof industrial space in one of Australia’s fastest-growing regional economies.

“We’re proud to be contributing to the next chapter of growth here,” said Potter. “Basalt Lane is a long-term play — it’s designed to deliver value now and remain relevant for years to come.”

The project responds to broader market trends, including the rise of flexible “co-warehousing”, demand for hybrid industrial-office spaces, and growing interest in regional coworking hubs. With Australia’s coworking sector forecast to grow at 23.6% CAGR to 2030, and similar small-scale developments selling out in major cities, Basalt Lane offers a timely, lifestyle-forward business solution.

Potter and Johnson bring years of experience across real estate and development throughout the Gold Coast and Northern Rivers corridor. For them, Basalt Lane represents more than just a business move — it’s a personal milestone.

“There’s no big fund behind us. We’re not a national group,” said Potter. “We’re two mates with experience and vision and we’re having a go.”

With limited supply and rising demand, Basalt Lane is expected to attract strong early interest from entrepreneurs, trade-based businesses, owner-occupiers, and investors seeking solid long-term returns in a high-growth coastal hub.

Jared Johnson and Zac Potter, have teamed up to launch their debut property development: Basalt Lane, Tweed Heads - a boutique collection of architecturally designed warehouse units set to rise in Tweed Heads South.

Urban Editorial

Gold Coast entrepreneurs launch premium industrial project in booming Tweed Heads South

Enfield may be home to fewer than 3,000 residents, but its prime location between Strathfield and Burwood has cemented its status as one of the Inner West’s hidden gems.

The suburb offers a village-style lifestyle with an abundance of cafés, restaurants, and boutique shops, staples of Inner West living.

At the last census, there were only around 300 apartments in the suburb. Fewer than a handful of new apartment developments have been delivered in recent years, but none are as well positioned as The Carlyle, just a three-minute walk to Henley Park, arguably one of the best parks in the area.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-carlyle-enfield-164-liverpool-rd-enfield-nsw-2136">The Carlyle</a> will comprise 32 one- and two-bedroom apartments, a mix rarely seen in the new development market across Sydney.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148733 project_image_fid=6667]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects-western-sydney">Ray White Projects WS</a>&nbsp;is fielding enquiry from several buyer types.

"First home buyers are realising this is the best time to get into the market," says Mark Bernberg, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects-western-sydney">Ray White Projects WS</a>&nbsp;Managing Director.

"There are now several government incentives assisting first home buyers to get onto the property ladder. The recent announcement to waive lender's mortgage insurance for those with low deposits puts tens of thousands back in their pockets. Pair that with stamp duty savings in the new apartment space, and there has never been a better time to be a first home buyer in the off the plan apartment market."

Bernberg has also seen a re-emergence of investors, attracted to the low supply of apartments in Enfield and the suburb's lifestyle, while also being on the fringe of Burwood, which is set to undergo a huge transformation with its recent rezoning around the new metro station.

"That will bring a wealth of new retail and amenity to the area, which tends to drive prices higher," Bernberg says.

"Rents are at record highs, and with interest rates coming down from the highs earlier this year, investment apartments are starting to stack up again financially."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148733 project_image_fid=6665]

The Carlyle apartments will sit above doorstep amenity, with a two-level retail podium incorporated into the striking building. The retail component will include a new ground-floor café facing Carlyle Street.

Two-bedroom apartments range from 67 sqm to 83 sqm internally, with some of the larger residences on the top level featuring expansive wraparound balconies. These layouts are designed to enhance seamless indoor-outdoor living, maximising natural light and views.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148733 project_image_fid=6666]

The Carlyle's proximity to Henley Park is one of its biggest drawcards. The 13-hectare park includes multiple sports fields, two fenced playgrounds designed for various age groups, and Enfield Aquatic Centre, complete with Olympic-sized swimming pool.

The Carlyle is on track to welcome residents in early 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6667]

Joel Robinson

The Carlyle in Enfield launches to undersupplied Inner West market

A new Metro stop, a thriving café scene, and proximity to village-style retail have cemented St Leonards as one of the Lower North Shore’s most sought-after suburbs for new development.

Among those seizing the opportunity is Sekisui House Australia, which has chosen this prized pocket, in the St Leonards South precinct, for its first-ever inner-city apartment project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/waterstone-st-leonards-24-berry-road-st-leonards-nsw-2065">Waterstone</a>.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134191 project_image_fid=230]

Set for completion in the summer of 2027, Waterstone comprises 207 apartments across five buildings, designed to look south back to the&nbsp;Sydney&nbsp;CBD.&nbsp;The new project offers residents the rare balance of connected urban living and tranquil green surrounds.

Just moments from home lies Smoothey Park, a blend of natural bushland and manicured parkland. It forms part of the Wollstonecraft cluster of reserves, including Gore Cove, Badangi Reserve, and Berry Island, all offering peaceful escapes on the Harbour’s edge.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KCD5mtyKBjc?si=DcC6Koxg6shdDFzq" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

When it comes to lifestyle, St Leonards and its neighbouring suburbs, Crows Nest, Waverton, Greenwich, and Wollstonecraft, deliver an endless array of cafés, restaurants, and boutique retailers. Nearby Mall 88, only 650 metres from Waterstone, adds convenience with over 30 specialty stores.

Connectivity is another major drawcard. The new Crows Nest Metro Station is just one kilometre away, while St Leonards Train Station is a short seven-minute walk. For a more scenic commute, the Greenwich Point Wharf ferry reaches Circular Quay in under 30 minutes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134191 project_image_fid=351953]

For peace of mind, Royal North Shore Hospital, one of Sydney’s most prominent medical hubs, sits just 650 metres away, making Waterstone ideal for healthcare professionals or residents seeking easy access to world-class medical facilities.

Perfectly positioned on the fringe of vibrant activity yet embraced by parkland serenity, Waterstone offers the best of both worlds in Sydney’s evolving Lower North Shore.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134191]

Nature and connection define life at Waterstone in emerging St Leonards South precinct

A new collection of residences is now available at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/sol-by-walker-maroochydore-first-avenue-maroochydore-qld-4558">SOL by Walker</a>, the residential development that continues to take shape within the Maroochydore City Centre.

The second release introduces 137 apartments to the market, adding to the growing community in what is set to become one of South East Queensland’s most significant urban renewal precincts. The new offering includes a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, alongside a limited number of terraces and penthouses designed to suit a range of lifestyle needs.

“SOL represents the beginning of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/maroochydore-qld-4558">Maroochydore</a>’s exciting next chapter, redefining expectations around life in this beautiful coastal city,” David Gallant, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/walker-corporation">Walker Corporation</a>, said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=147777 project_image_fid=319853]

Located on South Sea Islander Way, SOL forms part of the broader vision to deliver a connected and vibrant city heart for the Sunshine Coast. Construction is already underway on the first 19-storey tower, with completion targeted for early 2028. The development is being delivered by Walker in collaboration with Sunshine Coast Council and SunCentral.

SOL’s second stage continues the project’s focus on high-quality apartment living, with access to a suite of resident-only amenities including a rooftop sky terrace, wellness retreat, co-working lounge, gym and landscaped garden spaces.

Interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> combine timeless design with natural materials, generous layouts and panoramic outlooks to the ocean, hinterland and river.&nbsp;

“SOL by Walker establishes a new standard in apartment quality, seamlessly integrating superior craftsmanship with unmatched design,” Danny Juric, Director at Plus Studio, said

[smartcode_project:default project_id=147777 project_image_fid=346899]

Apartments feature open-plan layouts with high ceilings and expansive glazing to enhance natural light and ventilation.&nbsp;

A warm, neutral palette ties together stone benchtops, brushed platinum accents, and sandstone-toned carpet, while large sliding doors connect living areas to generous outdoor spaces.&nbsp;

Kitchens are fitted with integrated Miele appliances, refined cabinetry and thoughtful storage, while bathrooms offer double vanities and oversized showers to balance function and comfort.

As part of the Sunshine Coast’s new CBD, residents will be within walking distance of local retail, dining and green space, with transport connections set to expand as the precinct grows. Once complete, Maroochydore City Centre is expected to deliver thousands of new homes as part of the region’s long-term housing strategy.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=147777]

Second release at SOL by Walker expands residential offering in Maroochydore City Centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mirvac">Mirvac</a> has marked the topping out of Prince &amp; Parade in Brunswick, celebrating the completion of the building’s highest point and a major step forward for one of the developer’s landmark Melbourne communities.

The milestone forms part of Mirvac’s strong construction momentum across Victoria, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> and The Albertine both recently reaching structural completion. Together, the two projects will deliver 265 new apartments, contributing to much-needed housing supply in Melbourne’s inner suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4802 project_image_fid=3627]

Designed in collaboration with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a>, Prince &amp; Parade continues a long-standing partnership that has delivered The Melburnian (2002) and The Eastbourne (2019).

The new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/brunswick-vic-3056">Brunswick</a> address comprises a mix of one to four-bedroom residences complemented by extensive amenity, including a residents’ lounge, shared dining room and kitchen, library, yoga room, gym, and rooftop terrace, with landscaping by Jack Merlo and a concierge service.

Construction is rapidly transforming the site, with significant milestones achieved across two buildings, supported by 73 slab pours and six fully constructed building cores. Completion is expected in 2026.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4802 project_image_fid=269383]

Mirvac’s General Manager, Residential Development Victoria, Elysa Anderson said Prince &amp; Parade has been strongly received by buyers seeking quality design and trusted delivery.

“These communities have been well received, attracting strong interest from downsizers and professionals who value high-quality design, premium locations and the confidence of buying with Mirvac,” Anderson said.

Prince &amp; Parade has also achieved a record-breaking apartment sale in Brunswick, underscoring its design quality and market appeal.

“We’re incredibly proud to see Prince &amp; Parade set a new benchmark for Brunswick. This <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/exclusive-mirvac-breaks-brunswick-record-with-prince-parade-sale">record-breaking sale</a> is a testament to Mirvac’s design excellence, quality craftsmanship, and our strong reputation for delivering high-quality residential communities across the country,” Anderson said.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4802]

Prince & Parade tops out in Brunswick as Mirvac marks dual Melbourne milestones

Property Bubble

&nbsp;Australia&rsquo;s housing market is experiencing a peak growth rate, but experts say the current boom won&rsquo;t last forever.&nbsp;

In this month&rsquo;s Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey&trade;, 40 experts and economists weighed in on future cash rate moves and other issues relating to the state of the economy.&nbsp;

While all experts surveyed predict the cash rate to hold, nearly half of those who weighed in on property prices (47%, 16/34) believe Australia&rsquo;s current house price growth is unsustainable.

Property market growth surged at its fastest rate in 33 years in March, with national dwelling values also increasing by 6.2% over the past year according to CoreLogic.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6690 project_image_fid=27326]

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said that some experts are concerned a housing bubble is emerging.

&ldquo;Rock-bottom rates, government stimulus and a fear of missing out have really lit a fire under the belly of the market.&quot;

&ldquo;Listing numbers are unable to meet high buyer demand, keeping inventory levels low overall and adding to the sense of urgency among buyers. &quot;

&ldquo;We&rsquo;ve seen more borrowed for housing over the last six months than during any similar period in history &ndash; and economists have tipped us to borrow more over the next six.&quot;

&ldquo;It&rsquo;s unlikely we&#39;ll see any regulatory intervention from policymakers yet, but this might be a possibility down the track,&rdquo; Cooke said.&nbsp;

According to Mala Raghavan of the University of Tasmania, buyers may put themselves at risk by acting too hastily.&nbsp;

&ldquo;The recent uptick in buying behaviour largely appears to be due to the fear of missing out, and many buyers are rushing into the market without clear foresight of the impending risks.&quot;

&ldquo;When mortgage rates start rising, many households will risk being unable to service their loans, and could be vulnerable to foreclosures,&rdquo; she said.&nbsp;

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said that some experts are concerned a housing bubble is emerging

jordan_55689

1 in 2 experts say recent house price growth is “unsustainable”: Finder

<html><body>
Generalisations about property markets are a major source of misleading information for investors.
The worst examples usually emanate from economists who speak about “the Australian property market” as a single homogenous entity. 
A statement such as “Australian house prices rose 7 percent last year” implies there was 7 percent growth across the nation, when it reality there were a few locations with double-digit growth, some with minor movement, many where prices hardly moved at all and others where prices went backwards, in some cases a lot.
We’ve had three years of empty rhetoric about property prices “soaring” and bubbles emerging, all based on a long-overdue revival of the Sydney market and action in some parts of Melbourne.
Even speaking about what happened or will happen to prices in a single major city is too much generalization to be of any use to buyers and sellers.
The entity described as “the Sydney property market” is a place with over 700 suburbs, with markets ranging from $370,000 units in Liverpool to $900,000 houses in Rouse Hill to top-end locations like Mosman where the median house price is $3 million.
Distilling all of that and more into a statement such as “Sydney property prices rose 3.6 percent in May” is the hallmark of lazy, incompetent analysts whose primary interest is publicity rather than being useful to consumers.
A study of the latest Market Monitor from the Real Estate Institute of Queensland provides plenty of evidence that generalised single-figure numbers to describe a large city are both pointless and misleading.
The report finds that the median house price in the Brisbane City LGA rose 6.1 percent in the past year. That’s the figure that 99% of media would report, indicating that Brisbane has a solid market but one that isn’t booming the way Sydney did until recently.
But Market Monitor delves deeper and provides figures for individual suburbs, revealing there are plenty of places which did a lot better than the generalised figure and a few where median prices were in reverse.
Middle ring areas in the Brisbane Southside precinct did well in the past year, including Coorparoo (up 11 percent), Holland Park West (up 12 percent), Macgregor (up 17 percent), Sunnybank Hills (up 12 percent), Eight Mile Plains (up 10 percent), Mansfield (up 11 percent), Wishart (up 15 percent) and Robertson (up almost 20 percent).
Similar areas on Brisbane City’s Northside have also out-performed, including Banyo (up 17 percent), Grange (up 16 percent), Hendra (up 13 percent), Wooloowin (up 16 percent), Sandgate (up 17%) and Mitchelton (up 11 percent).
In contrast, there is evidence of falling values in upmarket areas like Hamilton, Ascot, St Lucia, Teneriffe and Hawthorne, all suburbs with median house prices above $1 million. But the median price for New Farm (median house price $1.5 million) is up 15 percent.
The report also shows the impact of over-building of inner-city apartments, with the median unit price down 1.4 percent in the CBD, down 4.5 percent in Fortitude Valley and down 1.7 percent in West End. Median weekly rents have fallen in the past year in several of the inner-city unit markets, according to the REIQ data.
Heading south to the Logan City part of Greater Brisbane, the generalised figure indicates the median house price has risen only 4 percent in 12 months. But suburbs with annual growth above 8 percent include Browns Plains, Heritage Park, Loganlea, Waterford and Waterford West. Logan Central, Forestdale and Woodridge all had annual growth in the 13-15% range.
Logan City’s opposite number in Brisbane’s far north is the Moreton Bay Region, which has emerged recently as the No.1 rising market in the metropolitan area. Most suburbs in this LGA have median house prices in the $300,000s and $400,000s – and affordability is a major driver here. 
The generalised figure says house prices have risen 5% in 12 months, but many suburbs have done better, including Albany Creek, Banksia Beach, Bongaree, Burpengary East, Caboolture, Clontarf, Ferny Hills, Narangba, Toorbul, Warner and Woody Point - all of which recorded annual growth between 8 percent and 12 percent. Upmarket Newport on the Redcliffe Peninsula also grew 12 percent.
On the Gold Coast, house prices rose 5.8 percent on average, but there are 20 residential suburbs with growth between 10 percent and 20 percent.
By contrast, the apartment market is under-performing, with the median unit price in Surfers Paradise largely unchanged, while the medians for Broadbeach, Labrador and Mermaid Beach all dropped 5 percent in the past 12 months.
Surfers Paradise, Broadbeach and Mermaid Beach all have median unit prices considerably lower than five years ago, while Labrador and Southport are unchanged.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Three years of empty rhetoric about property prices “soaring": Terry Ryder

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Harry Dent, one of the world’s most controversial economic futurists, will be touring Australia again in February.
He will be in Australia from February 24 to March 2 to discuss his latest research findings on the future of the economy.
His pitch will be how to build and protect your wealth during uncertain times which he describes as the greatest social, economic, and political upheaval since the American Revolution.
“I’m convinced that the combination of cheap money, inflated debt, declining demographics and politics will ultimately lead to a (stock) market crash worse than any we’ve ever seen.
"But that doesn’t mean you can’t still make some money in stocks right now. You see, the same forces that will ultimately lead to the next (stock) market crash are also the same forces that continue to drive this bull market “ says Harry.
He suggests Australia is a relative "safe haven."
But he will presumably offer his advice on exiting Australian property markets to a potentially understandably sceptical audience.
Last time he toured in 2014 Harry Dent's worst case scenario was for a post-China bubble burst impacting on Sydney with property prices possibly set to collapse by as much as 60 percent or so.
His controversial forecasts were labelled as "scaremongering" by commentator Chris Joye.
As he did on Harry Dent's earlier 2011 crash forecast, the founder of listed wealth manager Yellow Brick Road Mark Bouris also countered the claims. 
Bouris always maintained that Australia was well-positioned to navigate international turbulence.
In 2011 remarks on David Koch’s Sunrise program, Dent begged viewers to sell their homes before the 50 percent crash in prices arrived at their doorsteps.
Dent’s claim was that Australian dwelling values were “9.5 times family incomes”, and should, in his view, be about “half” that level.
Dwelling prices in Sydney now have an $895,000 median, up from $610,000 in early 2014, according to CoreLogic, who have noted a 2 percent fall over the past quarter.
It represents a 46 percent rise since Dent's 2014 warning. Sydney's median dwelling price was around $500,000 in 2011.
Blogger Pete Wargent noted in 2014 Dent's "track record has been wildly inaccurate."
<a href="https://harrydentlive.com" target="_blank">Next month</a> Harry Dent starts in Perth on Saturday 24th February, then Melbourne Monday 26th February, Sydney Tuesday 27thFebruary, Brisbane Wednesday 28th February and even Newcastle on Friday 2ndMarch. 
All attendees get copy of Dent’s new best seller Zero Hour.
The early bird pricing is $47.
Ofcourse Dent's most noted tip was that Japan, then on top of the economic world, would suffer a slowdown lasting more than a decade.
It is still pretty much in a coma, he notes, some two decades after the 1991 peak.
Last time he toured he told his audience: "You can't keep bubbles from bursting for ever."
Dent made headlines when he remarked that the Australian property market was like popcorn popping - different markets bursting at different times, noting the high risk of the expansionary China collapse in hurting Australian property prices.
"There is no way there will be a soft landing in China." he suggests even if the government seeks it. 
"China's blow will really hit Australia," he said.
Asked on his hit and miss success rate, Dent was forthright.
"I am likely to get 30 or 40% of forecasts wrong in the timing," he said.
His US critics point to his 2005 forecast that the Dow would hit 40,000 by the end of the decade. His local critics point to his 2011 call that property in Australia was set to crash.
Saying it often can be just one piece of information that can provide the clue, his late 1980s Japanese forecast was based on his premise that people slow in spending way ahead of retirement, from 46 years onwards.
Asked how much understanding the pysche of the population of a city or country was helpful in understanding market movement, and he agreed.
"You are right, yes markets do go up and down together, but to different degrees.
"But the bubble will be here and there, say Melbourne and Brisbane."
Harry is the founder and senior editor at Dent Research, where he seeks to identify and study demographic, technological, consumer spending and geopolitical trends to forecast economic booms and busts well ahead of the mainstream.
His latest publicity blurb put out by Max Markson seeks to address his many critics.
"Mainstream media pundits are calling me crazy, an idiot, and a quack.
"But that’s nothing new…
"After all, I’ve been making predictions that people are sceptical of for decades… but one after another keeps coming true anyway!"
{mijopolls 149}  
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

With a 46 percent property price rise, will anyone believe futurist Harry Dent on his Australian tour next month 

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The changing market conditions and the growing speculation about the end of the property boom is just that, speculation.
The market is not about to crash, but a slowdown may have begun, according to property expert John McGrath.
“This sort of chatter happens at the end of every boom. I have seen it time and time again over 30 years and the ‘doom and gloom’ predictions simply haven’t eventuated,” said McGrath in his recent Switzer column.
Booms don’t end in a crash, they take a gradual course, and this might be the start of a slowdown in Sydney and Melbourne, says McGrath. 
“Or we might not be – no one knows.”
But there’s a few small signs that the market is slowing and that’s the headlines and predictions of price falls. The key is not to panic, he advises.
“I’d actually encourage you to welcome a slowdown in growth. After a long period of price rises – about 75 percent in Sydney alone, we need a period of consolidation that will put a floor under these new price levels and provide stable ground for home values to rise strongly again in the next boom. 
“Of course, no home owner likes to see prices go down. But it’s important to remember that if we do see some price reductions, they’ll be small and short term.”
He dwells on the fact that good quality properties double in value every decade but growth is never in a straight line. More often than not, we have a few years of strong growth, a few years of little growth and round in circles we go.
“I’d advise you to ignore all suggestions of a market crash. It’s not going to happen. Yes, we’ve had phenomenal growth over the past five years. That doesn’t mean we’re due to have phenomenal declines.”
Property is now analysed, or should I say over-analysed, as closely as the stock market but property is not an asset class that changes overnight. 
“We have too much population growth fuelling demand and too much of an undersupply to experience a crash.
“Overseas commentators, in particular, do not understand this. They also don’t appreciate how ingrained it is in our culture to pursue property ownership. 
“We have entirely different dynamics to overseas markets that will continue to keep our property values strong well into the future.”
Sydney and Melbourne
To the question on whether the Sydney and Melbourne markets are turning, he says  no one can identify the exact time of a turn – it will only become clear several months after it has happened because once again, the property market changes at a very slow pace.
The supply of established housing stock available for sale in Sydney and Melbourne is at its highest level for this time of year since 2012, CoreLogic figures show. 
Does this indicate slowing demand? Yes. Is it a sign that the market is actually slowing or just a blip? We don’t know yet, he says.
Saturday auction clearance rates remain very high. About 60% represents a normal market. About 80% represents a boom. For the past couple of months, Sydney has been in the 70 percent - 75 percent range. Does this indicate a slight drop in demand? Yes. Is demand still strong? Absolutely.
Again, when the property market slows down after a boom, it does so very, very gradually. In my opinion, I do think the Sydney and Melbourne markets are at, or near, their peak for this growth cycle. What’s going to happen next? The two most likely eventualities are as follows:
1. The pace of growth in property prices will slow down but not stop. Property prices will keep growing but at a lesser rate per year.
2. We have a minor correction, where the market will do as it has done before and give back about half of the prior year’s growth, so that would be around 5%.
 “Neither scenario is cause for panic. If the boom is indeed over, then here’s my advice to people in the market.
<ul>
<li>If you are a recent buyer, don’t panic. Yes, you’ve purchased at what is probably the peak of the cycle but if you plan to hold long term (which is what you should always do) then it won’t matter if we experience a small correction. You’ve purchased a sound investment during a time of record low interest rates. Think about what your property will be worth in 10 years’ time – probably double! </li>
<li>If you are in the market to buy, don’t put it off because you think prices will plunge – it never happens that way. Take a sensible measured approach, set a budget and buy the right property for you.</li>
<li>If you are thinking of selling, now’s the time. It feels to me like we’re at, or close, to the peak of this cycle, so if you want to fully capitalise on this boom, now is the time to sell.</li>
</ul>
 “Property is a fantastic vehicle for wealth creation if you can hold it long term,” he says, concluding that it means riding out market slowdowns without panicking and staying focused on the goal of debt-free ownership down the road.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

The property boom will end slowly, with no cause for panic: John McGrath

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/76505/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
There’s been quite a bit of speculation over whether Australia has a property market bubble - where house prices are over-inflated compared to a benchmark - and when it might burst.
According to housing experts, there’s at least four scenarios where this could happen.
Australia could see a property bubble burst due to:
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li2">Lending tightening, interest rate hikes and mortgage stress</li>
<li class="li2">Underemployment and unemployment creating a slow deflation</li>
<li class="li2">Government intervention failure and market repair</li>
<li class="li2">Global crisis</li>
</ul>
These four scenarios focus on different tension points in Australia’s and the global economy. One scenario focuses on the balance of actions between regulators like APRA and the Reserve Bank, combined with household mortgage stress. Another envisions the affect that unemployment might have in certain areas.
Some of the factors we may see play out, such as the federal and state government trying to intervene to “fix” problems in the market, as happens in one scenario. But other factors may be out of the government’s control, for example, where a global crisis pushes up risk premiums.
All of these scenarios highlight just how complicated and interrelated the steps that lead to a property bubble burst could be.
Lending tightening, interest rate hikes and mortgage stress
Associate Professor Harry Scheule, UTS Business School
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-25594-sr2cd9.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-25594-sr2cd9.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Following concerns of the housing bubble, bank regulator APRA increases bank lending standards, it also increases the risk weight on Australian mortgages resulting in lower loan supply and higher loan costs. Banks are encouraged to reduce interest-only loans, hold a greater amount of costly capital (making home loans more expensive) and reduce the loan amounts offered to applicants due to higher future interest scenarios.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12655-nn7let.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Following increases in interest rates in the US and Europe, as those markets recover, the Australian dollar begins to decline – forcing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to increase interest rates.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12640-1lrrxft.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a>
Higher interest rates lead to higher monthly repayments, as most of Australia’s home loans are adjustable. Interest only loans are the most exposed. Higher interest rates also lead to more mortgage delinquencies.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170428-15097-i6a8cl.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-ND</a>
The banks tighten bank lending standards in response to the increase in delinquencies. This further constrains interest-only borrowers seeking to refinance after the end of the interest-only terms. This means more mortgage stress, as many had expected to roll over the interest-only period indefinitely, but now they are forced to make principal repayments next to interest payments.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12627-djg6hq.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
The cycle between delinquencies and tightening bank lending standards continues and as a result there’s a noticeable drop in loan supply and a fall in house prices. 
Underemployment and unemployment create a slow deflation
Danika Wright, Lecturer in Finance, University of Sydney
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12658-14s147l.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Unemployment and underemployment - workers who want to work more but can’t - increase. As the apartment development boom dies down, and without a mining boom to replace it, construction industry workers are at high risk.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12629-1g17gp1.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Households with a lot of mortgage debt are forced to limit their spending, particularly on discretionary items. This in turn affects companies that employ retail workers, reducing hours and employment.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12645-1thbkt5.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Employment opportunities are a major component of house price amenity, in part because demand for housing is pushed higher by inbound work-related migration. So, as there are less jobs nearby, the amenity value of some areas decreases.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170428-15121-1a3mn50.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
The amount of people at risk of defaulting on their mortgage increases in areas where there is a loss of employment or reduced income. In 2008, arguably the last time Sydney house prices went through a correction, the incidence of mortgage defaults and property price declines was geographically localised.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170428-15086-1qrzafm.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Borrowers who have the least amount of equity in their homes (typically the least wealthy, younger and newer entrants to housing market) are the hardest hit by falling property values. They are more likely to end up “underwater” – that is, owing more than the property is now worth – and face the prospect of a distressed sale. This in turn contributes to the downward spiral in house prices.
Australia has tighter lending criteria than regulators enforced before the global financial crisis in the United States. But concerns by regulators, including APRA, over current lending practices and potentially fraudulent activities raise questions over the real quality of mortgages and the ability of borrowers to repay them.
Government intervention failure and market repair
Professors of Economics, Jason Potts and Sinclair Davidson, RMIT
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-22270-1wxliec.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
A combination of low interest rates and low growth in new housing stock drive up Australian housing prices, a situation compounded by poor policy choices by state and federal governments and high demand from foreign residential property investors.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12658-1w2f933.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
As a result housing is misallocated in the Australian market, across demographic and especially age groups. This produces demographic pressures, as millennials delay leaving home, delay starting families. This leads to political pressure on governments – increases the urge to intervene.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170421-12669-19vk1qg.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
The federal government intervenes, blaming the secondary drivers (particularly the non-voting group: foreign investors). They increase restrictions on foreign investment in residential housing stock.
The federal government also lobbies APRA to increase rules on financial products, while promoting a scheme to subsidise and promote first home ownership.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-23807-i1c8wi.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Because none of these previous measures from the federal government affect the primary drivers of the misallocation of housing, domestic interest rates don’t change, and state governments do not act to release new stock. As a result housing prices continue to grow.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-27254-4qwo2z.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Increasingly alarmed that house prices continue to rise, the federal government starts to panic, threatening ever further regulation and starts to blame the financial system. This triggers the RBA to finally act, raising interest rates.
As interest rates rise, this causes mortgage stress, resulting in default among investors with high amounts of debt, pushing these properties onto the market. These distressed sales finally cause prices to fall.
Global crisis
Timo Henckel, Research Associate, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12629-1juog2j.png" alt="">
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
International crisis (whether it be political, military, economic) leads to an increase in global risk premiums.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12645-qj07.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Borrowing costs for Australian banks rise because of this and supply of global capital falls, pushing up mortgage rates in Australia.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12658-z8xdgo.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
The most vulnerable mortgagees can no longer afford their mortgages and are forced to sell their homes.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/01/file-20170424-12658-1fhdu2b.png" alt=""> 
The Conversation, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
House prices fall which, coupled with rising interest rates, adds further distress to households’ balance sheets, leading to more selling of houses and so on.
Jenni Henderson is editor, Business and Economy, The Conversation and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/team#jenni-henderson" target="_blank">here</a>.
Wes Mountain is<a href="https://theconversation.com/au/team#wes-mountain"> </a>deputy multimedia editor, The Conversation and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/team#jenni-henderson" target="_blank">here.</a>
 
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Four ways an Australian housing bubble could burst

<html><body><div class="entry-content">
<div class="pf-content">
Melbourne has no bubble and its apartment market was not even close to reaching an oversupply, according to Charter Keck Cramer research director, Robert Papaleo.
He says there has been misinformation surrounding the issue.
“The structural tailwinds supporting Melbourne apartment market outweigh the cyclical headwinds,” Papaleo told attendees at the recent Australian Property Institute and REIV’s State of the Market 2017 State of Market conference.
“There is no apartment supply bubble and oversupply is not imminent.
"Melbourne is experiencing unprecedented supply but it not oversupplied,”
Papaleo said Melbourne’s housing market is performing strongly because it is at a 30% discount to Sydney, compared to 15% cheaper in 2011.
“This will drive more migration to Melbourne," said Papaleo who added that Melbourne remains attractive to international students.
He said that one year ago, 24,000 apartments were expected to be completed in 2017 across metropolitan Melbourne, but the latest figures suggest 16,000 apartments are now expected to completed.
“We are heading towards a situation where 16,000 apartments a year will be completed over the new few years to 2020."
It comes off the supply peak of 19,000 apartments in 2016, he said.
“Oversupply is not evident in the market.
"Two years ago, in 2015, 9,000 apartments were sold across Melbourne’s Central City Region.
"In 2016, 6,000 apartments were sold; despite the fall it was still a good result.
"And developers are holding back supply,” he said.
“Obviously, if interest rates move, there will be an impact on that price growth.
"What we are seeing at the moment, though, is the Melbourne housing market is truly reflecting its attractiveness to local investors, local owner occupiers, as well as, in particular segments – such as the apartment sector as well as the greenfield market – international investors as well as interstate investors continue to see relative value in Melbourne prices compared to the places that capital is coming from, whether that be Sydney, or whether that be Singapore,” he said, as reported by Australian Property Journal.
 
</div>
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At 30 percent cheaper than Sydney, Melbourne has apartment advantage without oversupply or bubble: Charter Keck

<html><body>
Chinese billionaire Wang Jianlin has issued a warning on the Chinese property market.
It's the "biggest bubble in history," he told CNNMoney.
<div id="ie_column">The problem, according to Wang, is that prices keep rising in major Chinese metropolises like Shanghai but are falling in thousands of smaller cities where huge numbers of properties lie empty.</div>
"I don't see a good solution to this problem," he said.
"The government has come up with all sorts of measures -- limiting purchase or credit -- but none have worked."
"The problem is the economy hasn't bottomed out," Wang said.
"If we remove leverage too fast, the economy may suffer further. So we'll have to wait until the economy is back on the track of rebounding -- that's when we gradually reduce leverage and debts."
He says he's not worried about the prospect of a "hard landing".
Wang has been warning of trouble in the Chinese property market for a while with his Dalian Wanda Group, which has developed huge malls and office complexes across China, has been gradually cutting back on its real estate business.
His business has key property assets overlooking Sydney Harbour at Circular Quay and on the Queensland Gold Coast.
Wang is the richest man in China, according to Forbes and Hurun Report data from 2015.
<a href="https://money.cnn.com/2016/09/28/investing/china-wang-jianlin-real-estate-bubble/" target="_blank">Click here to see his full video interview.</a>
</body></html>

Chinese billionaire Wang Jianlin issues biggest housing bubble warning

<html><body><div id="story-description">
There was definitely no risk of a national housing bubble, Alan Kohler, the Australian columnist and publisher of The Constant Investor, has suggested in his latest column.
Is there one in Sydney?
"Perhaps," he wrote in The Australian.
"Sydney just happens to be where people want to live and invest and, at the moment, there’s a lack of supply. 
"Maybe there’ll be a crash if supply catches up and interest rates rise.
"Big ifs," he suggested.
He noted the surge in Sydney’s auction clearance rate over the weekend to 86.4 per cent should lay to rest the myth that the housing market has stopped responding to lower interest rates and, secondly, that government decentralisation policies are worthwhile.
The weekend's preliminary clearance rate in Sydney was 10 percentage points higher than a year ago, and also 10 percentage points higher than the next highest result the 76 percent in Melbourne.
 
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Alan Kohler says perhaps there's a Sydney housing bubble

<html><body>
Harry Dent, the boldly bearish US economist, is in Sydney this Thursday some two years after last peddling his contrarian forecasts.
His insights alway capture the headlines.
His last seminars advising that Australia’s ‘property bubble’ would burst with a 50 percent price decline actually mimiced his prior forecast from 2011.
The doomsday US commentator sees the world - and most of Australia's multi-dimensional property market - through the prism of his 2011 book, The Great Crash Ahead. There is now a new book to sell.
His 2011 remarks on David Koch’s Sunrise program, saw Dent implore major capital city viewers to sell their homes before the 50% crash in prices arrived on our doorsteps.
Dent’s argument appeared based mostly on the claim that Australian dwelling values were 9.5 times family incomes, and ought in his view, be about half this level. 
Not long after a chart released by the RBA showed the Australian house price-to-income ratio was actually around four or five times, ie half Dent’s claims.
Dent refined the 2011 outlook with his colourful analogy that the Australian property market would be like popcorn popping - different markets would be bursting at different times.
Last time Dent was here I asked him on his hit and miss success rate.
"I am likely to get 30 or 40% of forecasts wrong in the timing," he advised.
Dent says he studies bubbles.
"When everyone is in a bubble, most can't see it, when the markets are at their lows, they can't see the recovery...and that's when there is money to be made," he said.
Harry is the founder and senior editor at Dent Research, where he seeks to identify and study demographic, technological, consumer spending and geopolitical trends to forecast economic booms and busts well ahead of the mainstream.
The forecast he his most proud of was when Dent tipped that Japan, then on top of the economic world, would suffer a slowdown lasting more than a decade.
Japan is still pretty much in a coma, he says after its 1991 peak when most economists envisaged Japan overtaking the US in world economic dominance.
Saying it often can be just one piece of information that provides the clue, his late 1980s Japanese forecast was based on his premise that people slow in spending way ahead of retirement, from 46 years onwards.
I asked how much understanding the pysche of the population of a city or country was helpful in understanding property market movement, and he agreed with the concept.
"You are right, yes markets do go up and down together, but to different degrees."
As with many economist naysayers, Dent may get Sydney right sooner or later, but it is best to take the forecasts with a certain level of cynicism or else cop the cost of lost opportunity.
Afterall Sydney's house price median was at $560,000 and Sydney’s unit median at $458,500 around the time of his 2011 forecast.
By 2014 it was $765,000 for Sydney houses and $550,500 for units.
It now sits at $890,000 for houses and $680,000 for units, according to CoreLogic.
It's not to say Sydney won't be spooked sometime, but for most of us it will be a question of holding one's nerve in the face of the herd mentality.
That's more her-like panic likely to come from investors, rather than home owners.
<div> </div>
<div>This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph.</div>
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